Fantasy Football Today - Top 5 Backfield Battles and a Heated RB Strategy Debate! (06/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 30, 2020

The rookie RB class has given us a lot of intriguing backfield battles. Today we'll put the spotlight on five of them as we see which way our listeners are leaning and which way our analysts are leaning in each backfield, starting with KC (4:26). Does Damien Williams have better value than Clyde Edwards-Helaire? ... We move on to the Rams (16:00) and Bucs (23:30) backfields. Are we going with the veterans or the rookies? Do we even want anything to do with TB? And then on to the Lions (30:00) and Bills (36:30). Kerryon Johnson's ADP is pretty appealing. Is Devin Singletary underrated? Why does Jamey love Zack Moss' value? ... An unexpected strategy debate breaks out (45:30)! How should you value a RB who you don't expect to contribute much early in the season, but could be a league-winner late in the season? We'll give some different perspectives on this topic ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Ronald Jones or Keyshawn Vaughn?

Cam Akers or Daryl Henderson? Do the veteran running backs like Damian Williams and Kerryon Johnson actually have better draft values than the rookies who are trying to replace them? We're going to talk about our top five backfield battles entering 2020. Not going to talk about the Colts today. They'd probably be on the list,

but we spent a lot of time talking about them. I'm Adam Azer. Welcome to the show. What's up, Jamie Eisenberg? What's up, buddy? How you doing? Doing great. Doing great. What's up, Heath? How are you? Today, we're also going to teach you about the see results option on Twitter polls and why you should use it. I look forward to hearing about that. And it's the second episode of the week. That means Ben Gretsch is here. We're super excited. What's up, Ben?

There we go. Roll out the red carpet for the second episode. All right. See results. What is that all about? When you're only doing polls with two options or three options, always make another option for see results because there's a percentage of the population. Now, on some polls, it'll only be one or two percent. On some polls, it might be up to 10 to 15 percent of people who want to see the results of that poll, but either don't know the answer or aren't sure about the answer. And so they will just pick something randomly so that they can see the results. But if they have the choice to click see results, they'll do that. And then the results you actually get will be more accurate. You think so? Why wouldn't they just answer with their heart and their gut and pick

what they think? Because they don't know. They're just guessing. They're just throwing something out there. They're all just guessing. No. See results. Every time I do a poll that has see results on it, I get someone commenting, man, I wish everyone would put C results on the polls. Yeah, but that's like one person says that. Every time I do a poll, I do polls all the time. But it's the same person every time. It's at C results on Twitter. Once again, just take

this advice and just go implement it and make your life better. Other than the Chiefs, since Clyde Edwards either will be the first drafted in these backfield battles, which backfield, and it could be one that's not on the Chiefs, since Clyde Edwards either will be the first drafted in these backfield battles, which backfield, and it could be one that's not on the list today. Today we're talking about Kansas City in no particular order. This will be the order, actually.

The Rams, the Bucks, the Lions, and the Bills. Any backfield, though, that you think is the most interesting and could have the biggest fantasy impact? I'll start with Ben. If it's not the Chiefs, who is it? Colts? You asked like three different questions. What I think is the most interesting,

what could have the most fantasy impact? What are my answers? I was lumping them together, I guess. So tell us that and tell us the four most fun things you did over the weekend. Yeah, I went and visited my parents' house, went on a boat. No, no. I think the Colts are one of the ones that definitely will have the biggest fantasy impact. I think that's a really good offensive line. And I think with Rivers coming there and how high he throws to the backs, that will be an important one for fantasy players. There's obviously three options there,

but somebody is going to be good in that backfield. The ones that I want to like figure out the most dolphins, I think are a little bit interesting. 49ers are obviously going to be a good rushing attack, whether, you know, it's most sort of Tevin Coleman, I think is a really interesting. And if Jerick McKinnon is healthy, I think is an interesting discussion. I don't know. I mean, you sent this topic out, or you and Traeger, for top five running back backfields.

I tried to rank them myself. I came up with 23 that I don't really know for sure what the split's going to be like. There's really only nine that I feel comfortable with. I think I left you off the email, didn't I, when I was asking everybody for their five backfields. I think I left you off the email, didn't I? When I was asking everybody for their five backfields. Yeah, I did. I didn't see any of those emails. Very easy move right there. My bad. My bad. I guess at the time, I didn't realize you were going to be on this show. So my bad. I tried to get consensus of which five we should talk about. It's not a true top five,

because again, I was trying to mix in some ones we don't talk about quite as much. So, all right, let's get to that. And let's start with Kansas City. So here's the Twitter poll I did. Let's get that going there. Okay, who do you prefer at their current ADP? I used NFC average draft position for this.

Clyde Edwards-Ziller in round two or Damian Williams in round six? And see results. See results got zero votes. Clyde Edwards-Ziller got 46%. Damian Williams got 54%. So Damian Williams round six, which is way earlier than he goes in our drafts.

I'm thinking like round eight, maybe not. Let's say eight for him. But still, I put round six, and he still got more votes than Clyde Edwards-Elair in round two. Jamie, I was surprised by that. What do you take away from that? Do you, just before I answer this, with all of your polls,

did the later value go first in everyone? Did the later value win in everyone? No. No. No, it was... So I did five polls, one for each backfield. They were split two and two for the ones that actually had the values.

And then for Tampa Bay, I just said, who do you want, Ronald Jones or Keyshawn Vaughn? So no, it was not the later value, actually. That was a good question, though. See where you were going with that. I'm sorry, so what was your question? What do you make of that? The fact that people would rather have,

as this small group of people who voted, would rather have Damian Williams in round six than Clyde Edwards-Hilaire in round two? I think that's probably fairly accurate. I think there are a group of people, myself included, that are very excited about Edwards Hilaire that would overdraft him because I do think round two is a little bit of an overdraft. And, I mean, look, the last time we saw Damian Williams play,

I wrote the story. He should have been the Super Bowl MVP, you know, based on the way he performed against the 49ers. So he's coming off a great finish and value is value. And so if he's still going to remain the starter, as we've talked about, you know, with the lack of an off season for a rookie, it could be the starter and still the touch leader for maybe half the season. So that's good value for, you know, the,

the starting running back for the chiefs, but I think talent's going to win out. I think Edward Soler was drafted in the first round for a reason. And I think he's going to play more than Damian Williams sooner rather than later. So I would rather take the chance on that upside than wait to see if I get Damian Williams around six. Heath, break this down for me. How do you see it?

You know, I don't think any of us know what the Chiefs intentions are other than I expect Damian Williams is going to start week one the biggest question may be can damian williams stay healthy for 16 games now he's not going to have like a feature role even if he does but i think it really hurts clyde edwards e-layers chances of justifying a second round price tag if damian williams doesn't suffer any sort of entry because I really have a hard time like that that whole system is so good if they give Damian Williams 12 to 15 touches in the first four weeks of the season they're probably going to win all those games and he's probably going to do very well and so I don't know that Clyde Edwards either

I was just going to like sit him down in the first month of the season. I did a Twitter poll a couple of weeks ago with all the rookie running backs. Who do you expect to lead the team in touches the first four weeks of the season? And Edwards-Hilaire was the closest. Like 48% of the people expected him to lead the Chiefs in touches. But none of the rookies were at 50%. And if you're not going to be the best running back on your own team, the first month of the season, it's, it's difficult. It's not impossible, but it's difficult to earn a second round price tag. Okay, Ben, I'll give you a word here. Um,

then we'll talk about some other aspects of this. How do you see this backfield looking? And I don't really have a strong opinion i i know that obviously there's going to be a ton of value in this backfield and one of these guys is going to be uh even if they split it i think they'll both be very productive it's you know i look at i look at running back situations a lot of times from the team level i look at how many potential receptions and high value touches there will be in an offense and we know that both of these guys, if they're playing enough, will catch passes and they'll score touchdowns. I mean, Damian Williams has scored a ton of touchdowns, even while playing pretty much limited snaps throughout most of his time with the Chiefs.

So he's a guy that can be very good, obviously. And then I understand Jamie's excitement for Edwards-Solaire, because if he's playing a bunch, this is a situation where Edwards-Solaire could be an absolute star. I did have a couple of numbers. I did a poll on this today and I don't think the results are right. I think the people are wrong, but I'll ask you guys because the Chiefs running backs last year combined averaged like 26.7 touches per game. If you just look at the leading rusher in each game or the leading touch getter in each game the lead guy averaged 13.7 so basically the the lead guy each week was getting about half of the touches and i had asked how many touches are you expecting for clyde edwards

and like 70 of people said 15 or more i i think it's like if I was setting an over-under, it would be closer to 13 than 15. Yeah, that's fair. I think it's fair too. To start. And then look, if he's great, then maybe it goes to 15 or 16. Yeah.

And obviously Damian Williams could get hurt. And I think the interesting thing is, do you guys, it's obvious that, you know, there's a path for Clyde Edwards-Zuller to be great. And the thing is, you know, you look at last year and what they did,

and they did split the carries, and it was pretty annoying, even when Damian Williams was healthy until Week 16 and 17 and the playoffs, really. But the three years before that, they really did not split the carries. Spencer Ware had big work,

and then Kareem Hunt had big work as a rookie, and then 11 games before getting suspended. So there's a very recent history of Andy Reid turning one running back loose. But okay, if we think Clyde Edwards-Elair has a lead upside, do we see a scenario where Damian Williams could be 15 touches and basically first, second round value type of player. Does he have the same upside that Clyde Edwards-Elar has? I don't know that he has the same upside,

but I think it'd be 15 touches for sure. There's a chance Clyde Edwards-Elar gets to camp and there's something the Chiefs want him to do that he just does not do. There's a chance that he's the one that gets hurt. So yeah, I think there's absolutely top 15 upside for Williams still. Okay, so somebody convinced me why I should take Clyde Edwards-Elair in the second round instead of Damian Williams in the sixth round or later. Well, I think the value is definitely in Damian Williams' favor

based on where you can get him. And like you said, Adam, in our drafts, we've seen him go a little bit later. I think the thing about it is that we said this time and again. What did the teams tell us in the NFL draft? The Lions by taking DeAndre Swift. The Colts by taking Jonathan Taylor. The Chiefs clearly the most prominent by taking Edward Solaire in the first round. That they're either planning for the future, like the Ravens could be with J.K. Dobbins,

or they're not thrilled with what they have right now and maybe it's Williams not staying healthy for 16 games and they want to just insert what they consider to be the next Brian Westbrook and Andy Reid's offense you know like they've compared him to or you know recent history you know the next Kareem Hunt in terms of taking a rookie and making him into a star so So I think, you know, the guys have said it best that we just, we don't know. But if you're just talking about value and if Damian Williams can stay healthy, round six is going to deliver pretty good value for a guy that if he's getting 13 touches, if the number's 26, as Heath has said, and they're splitting it down the middle, you know, 14, 12, 13, 13, 15, 11,

however that's going to go. You know, if it's in Damian Williams' favor by any stretch, then he's going to have probably ridiculous season for what those touches are based on what he has shown us. You know, I mean, he's not going to have, you know, maybe the same upside like Edward Solaire would have if he gets the majority of touches, because I think that, you know, younger and maybe a little bit more explosive at this point. But when Williams has been on the field, replacing Hunt in that 2018 season, at times in 2019, obviously in the playoffs

and toward the end of the year, when LaShawn McCoy was put on the inactive list, he was special. You're not really convincing me. You're not selling me here. You're not selling me on CEH in round two. I mean, again, it's a matter of what the Chiefs have told us and what Damian Williams'

injury track record has been. So I'll buy into both those things if that's my evidence of them not being thrilled with Damian Williams. They made him the first back off the board. They picked him as the only running back in round one. And we know how valuable the role is.

Jamie just noted, when Damian Williams came back from injury last year, he played week 16, 17, and then the three playoff games. He scored nine touchdowns in those five games. Playing the vast majority of the snaps, LeSean McCoy was inactive for a lot of that. But he was like a multiple TD guy almost every week into the playoffs.

It wasn't during fantasy time, so we don't really recall it as as as vividly as we we do probably some of the performances that happen when we're paying more attention to the specific stats but yeah from week 16 through the super bowl this dude scored nine touchdowns in five games he scored an incredible amount in late 2018 this role has so much value and the chief just went and drafted running back in the first round made him him in the first running back off the board. That's, that's what the upside is.

I mean, that's, that's pretty clear. I think. Uh, yeah. It's just kind of funny that the argument for Clyde Edwards, he layer,

a lot of it is like, well, look how good Damien Williams was. And I get it. Like, it's not a criticism, but it's see there. We're going to talk about it.

Look how good Damien Williams was. It's look how good Kareem Hunt was. It's look how good Brian Westbrook was. Look how good Lashawn McCoy was. But obviously we're going to talk about a lot five backfields today. Look how good Damien Williams was. Look how good Kareem Hunt was. Look how good Brian Westbrook was. Look how good LaShawn McCoy was. We're going to talk about a lot of backfields today. And for maybe four of them, you might say, not you guys on the show, but you, the listeners, might say, you know what?

I just don't want to deal with them. This is not that situation. We know the potential. This poll and all of your, because Jamie asked, was it just the lower guy that won all the polls? In terms of the value that you put in your...

I voted for Damian Williams here and I voted for the later guy in all four polls. Okay. All right, so let's go on to our second one. I don't have a problem, though. If you're telling me round two,

round six, I'll take both. Really? Round six? Round six just felt early for Damian Williams. Yeah, round six feels a little early for me on Williams too, and I voted Clendid or Siller on this poll. Okay.

Hey, Scott Fishbowl, mock draft tonight on Twitch, Tuesday night, 7 p.m. Eastern, twitch.com slash FF today. So we're going to do it with the Scott Fishbowl settings, half PPR, half point for first down, tight end premium, and we're giving away spots in our Twitch listeners league with eight Twitch subscribers and four of our experts. Tune in to win.

And yeah, please subscribe. Go to twitch.com slash FF today and follow along 7 p.m. Eastern. We'll have a lot of fun. You can ask us questions. It's good stuff. Fantasy baseball today. Make sure you're listening to that podcast.

We know baseball's back July 23rd. It's draft time. And right now they're doing the position previews. It's Frank Stample with Scott White and Chris Towers. I'm going to be back on after the position previews. They got Friday mailbags. I might be on for those. So yeah, I'll tell you that I think Carlos Correa

is currently the single best value in fantasy baseball. And I want him on all my teams. But I can't wait for the season to start. Why didn't we draft him on the team we share together? I don't remember. Oh, we waited and waited and waited on shortstop, which is another thing you can do. You can do that pretty much at any hitter position.

All right, let's see what the Rams' Twitter poll looked like here. Who do you prefer at their current ADP? Cam Akers in round five or Daryl Henderson in round 11 I know Heath voted for Daryl Henderson Jamie Akers in round 5 or Henderson in round 11 Cam Akers Ben I took Akers as well

Heath you're on Henderson Island I'm on Henderson Island and I'm not sure that I really love like I'm not saying that I think Henderson's going to win the job. I've definitely projected acres for more touches. I think it's most likely that he leads the team

in running back touches. I just don't really love this situation. I don't think the offensive line is very good. They have talked their offensive coordinator less Les Snead, talked about all three backs and

Malcolm Brown's success percentage in short yardage and what Daryl Henderson can do in the passing game. I don't want to spend a fifth-round pick on Cam Akers if he's not really the short yardage guy or the pass-catching guy because Ben Gretsch told

me that's a trap back. He told me that too, actually, uh, Ben, but you still voted for it. Nobody's talking about what he's telling you guys, uh,

by the way, cam makers currently leading the poll 52% to 48%. So very close, but cam makers around five 52% Daryl Henderson around 11, 48%. Ben, why would you take cam Akers six rounds earlier? I like Henderson around 11, too.

I just think Akers has the potential league-winning upside, and round five isn't such a crazy price to pay. And especially when you look at the other backs that go in round five, there's just not a lot of peeling in that range. So I do find myself looking at Akers in that range. So I do find myself, you know, looking at acres in that range, but I don't disagree with what he said. And I, and I also, you know, I was big on Daryl Henderson and some dynasty startups. I took them in both of the startups I did pre NFL draft. I mean,

I was excited for him this off season until they drafted acres. So I can see the argument for Henderson still having a shot as well. Okay. Jamie. offseason until they drafted acres so i can see the the argument for henderson still having a shot as well okay jamie this backfield feels like the most wide open in the nfl um especially given what the upside is i mean you know i think todd girley's a special running back but sometimes you know it's the system as we just got finished talking about with andy reed and and the chiefs and eagles what he's done uh with guys that he's coached and And we're going to find out if this was a byproduct of Gurley being that good or is Sean McVay's system that good. Because with a bad offensive line and Gurley on less than 100% health,

I'm going to assume, he still scored 14 touchdowns. He didn't run very well, but, you know, they gave Gurley the opportunity to score those 14 touchdowns and he said it could be Malcolm Brown it could be Daryl Henderson it could be Cam Akers you know and it doesn't necessarily have to be 14 touchdowns but if he's getting eight plus then round five on top of what he does hopefully with his total yards and you know catches he's coming off a 30 catch season, um, in 2019 at Florida state. So I just think that again, the Rams told us that they spent more on acres in the draft this year than they spent on Henderson the previous year, Henderson couldn't stay healthy. I know they said

he's getting over the ankle injury that plagued him last year, but the fact that he's still not at a hundred percent, at least that was the story, uh, least that was the story that came out in May or early June. I forget when it was. That's a little discouraging. So is it going to be all three guys? I don't know. I just think that Akers has the chance to be the best of that trio. He was one of my favorite backs going into the NFL draft.

I think it's a good destination for him to be with the Rams, and he's played behind a bad offensive line in Florida State now, so playing behind a bad offensive line in the NFL might not be the worst thing for him. And Todd Gurley, just so many touchdowns. Double-digit touchdowns in four of his five seasons with the Rams. It's 54

total touchdowns in three seasons under McVay. Yeah, it's crazy. 42 rushing and 12 receiving touchdowns for Gurley. That's pretty good. Why didn't you put Malcolm Brown in this poll? Malcolm Brown. Nobody wants him. Is there a pass?

I agree with Heath. I think he might be the best value of this. He can lead them. I was going to go with either Malcolm Brown or see results and I couldn't decide what I wanted to do, so I just left them both out. You had four options. You could have done both, and then it would have been an actually good poll. I would just say if you had to wager a large amount of money

on who is going to lead the Rams and carries week one, I think that Malcolm Brown would be the right bet. Who are they playing? I don't know. Let's find out. They're playing a team they're going to blow out. I'll take Cam Akers. Garbage time.

One last thing I want to say on Akers, though. Going into the draft, everyone thought the top backs were pretty clearly... And Clyde Edwards-Hilaire wasn't even necessarily thought to be that high. But Jonathan Taylor, DeAndre Swift, and J Edwards to layer wasn't even necessarily thought to be that high, but you know, Jonathan Taylor, Deandre Swift and JK Dobbins, they still took acres ahead of Dobbins,

which I think if you think, Oh, you know, what if, what if the Rams would have taken Dobbins? What would we think right now? Um, I think,

I think I'd like them a lot better. Yeah. I think people would, but if the Rams liked acres that much, that tells you something. Cause they're the ones that are going to decide who they're going to give touches to. It's not true.

Well, then I would just say that, I mean, it might be a long shot, but they took van Jefferson fairly early. I mean, they took him in the second round. So he went earlier than people expected to,

if you believe in the Rams evaluating a running back, maybe apply it to the wide receiver as well. Perhaps that's more of a dynasty thing. Maybe their only trip that they were allowed under the circumstances was to Florida. So they just did Florida State and they were done. Yeah, I guess so. And they left out the worst school in Florida.

So that's... Yeah, well, they couldn't get that far south. So, you know. Anyway, this is another offense that's been first, second, and 11th in scoring under Sean McVay. 10th, second, and 7th in total yards. It's another offense where you might not want to just be like,

I'm not going to draft these guys because you might have a really good player there. All right, let's take a quick break here on Fantasy Football today. We got the Bucs, the Lions, and the Bills when we come back. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty

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Keyshawn Vaughn? Ronald Jones. 58% of the votes is your leader right now. Keyshawn Vaughn, 42%. So that's kind of interesting. Does anybody on this podcast like Ronald Jones better than Keyshawn Vaughn? You do. Switch my allegiance.

I do too. Yeah, I do too. I think it's really interesting that you picked these five, uh, tough to tough to call backfields. And the biggest gap was 58 42. Yeah. I mean, it tells you that none of us really know much.

Yeah. Now most of them were ADP. This was not, but, but actually an ADP, um, NFC, I'm pretty sure Vaughn and Jones were going back to back.

So basically this was an ADP question. You'd kind of have to choose between one or the other, or maybe you draft both if you want. Would anybody want to draft both of them? Let's say we're talking around seven and eight in a 12 team league. Yes. Yes. If I do it probably in different leagues and I probably will have,

I will probably have exposure to both of these guys. But not on the same team. I don't know if I would do it on the same team. Okay. They were 15. It's a unique situation, but it's, the only thing that's hanging out there that makes me not feel comfortable about that combination is the Devante Freeman thing.

If it was, if Devante Freeman would sign with someone else, I feel pretty okay about taking those two back-to-back in the seventh and eighth and thinking I had one really good running back. I was going to say they were 15th in rush attempts last year and 16th in rushing touchdowns. It was not that bad of a rushing offense. And obviously, you know, it could get better.

God, Peyton Barber was a waste with 154 carries. Come on. Okay, but you say Devontae Freeman. Now, let me draw a comparison to the Rams with the Bucs. Daria Gumbawale could be their third down guy. So these might be two trap backs here. Maybe splitting goal line work. I don't know.

Ronald Jones only got two carries inside the five last year. Daria Gumbawale had seven. Peyton Barber had like nine. So, you know year. Daria Gumbawale had seven. Peyton Barber had like nine. So, you know, where does Gumbawale factor in and does he kind of throw a wrench in this backfield for fantasy purposes? Well, I can tell you that Gumbawale's carries from like the one were almost all hurry up

in two-minute drill situations where they had him in and they would hurry up to the line after completion and run with him. Cause it drove me absolutely nuts. I've run on chance in every league when I was writing, stealing signals. I remember this so vividly. They were, they were just hurry up and give it to a Goomba wallet.

Okay. If he matters, then I would say it's really bad news for Keyshawn Vaughn. Okay. Jamie, what's your read on this? Who do you like better? Jones or Vaughn?

I've switched to Jones. I think, you know, just looking at Bruce Arian's history, there's probably a better chance of Jones starting the year as the guy and seeing how long he can keep the job, but the fact that they've said that Vaughn can step into Peyton Barber's role, he's going to be better in Peyton Barber's role. So, you know, that's something

I think that will hurt Ronald Jones. He had a long, long touchdowns called back last year, or not a lot, but he had several long touchdowns called back due to penalty. Jones or Vaughn? Jones or Vaughn? I didn't keep track of Vaughn's long touchdowns. I thought maybe sometimes you find

those stats, you know. But I think, you know, Jones, I have them basically back-to-back in my ranking, so the 7-8 round turn, if I were able to, to do that and I needed a, a, to fill a running back spot with two guys, that's the type of backfield that I think I'd want to do it with. And, you know, Miami might be another one, um, just to see who has the chance to be the better of the two.

And that's not too much of an investment in one backfield in that spot, but I would not surprise me if Vaughn's better, but it could be, and by no means am I making the same comparison, but it could be what Arians did with David Johnson, where it took to the end of the year and they finally let the, maybe the more talented guy go. I don't know if Vaughn's more talented than Jones. I'm curious to find out,

but I think Arians is going to lean, lean on the veteran guy early. And I think Jones is going to have an opportunity more so than let's say the other backfields that we've talked about with the veterans. Okay. So are you guys more enthusiastic about having a piece of the Rams backfield or the Bucks backfield? I'm sorry,

JMO. I'd rather have acres. Heath. sorry, JMO. I'd rather have Akers. Heath? I don't know that I can say that I'm more enthusiastic about any of these running backs. Not really feeling it, huh? I mean, that's not to say, like, I've drafted Jones and Vaughn, and I've drafted Henderson, so, but it's more of a, okay, I need a

running back and that guy's there. So I take him. I've not gotten particularly excited about either one. Ben, are you excited about Ronald Jones? I think Ronald Jones before the Keyshawn Vaughn pick and the biggest issue with the Vaughn pick is that we know he's a good pass blocker. We know

Arians had such an issue with Ronald Jones pass blocking. I mean, there was that an issue with Ronald Jones pass blocking. I mean, there was that one game right after Jones had a big rushing game. The very next week, he ended up playing only a few snaps, and we found out after the fact he blew a pass blocking assignment, and Arians sat him down for the rest of the game. Arians seemed to just cut off his nose to spite his face with Ronald Jones all year and kept giving Peyton Barber playing time because he hated how much he pass blocked.

Even though this is my long-winded way of saying, what Jones showed us as a runner last year was that he's good. Like, we didn't see that in his rookie year. The talk last offseason was maybe Ronald Jones is just a huge bust and not very good. He had kind of a lingering hamstring injury in his rookie season, was the youngest back in that class. We talked about all that stuff.

He came back last year and was good running the ball when he got opportunities. And like jamie said also had some long runs called back but still was a full yard per carry better than barber on a similar workload in the same offense um he wasn't you know amazing but when you go back and you watch his film like he this guy was breaking tackles he was carrying guys he's a big physical back and he was good and i think he can be very good in in 2020 and i think he'll be continued to be an effective nfl player you know through his rookie contract i you know and he's got two more years on it so i don't think bond's just going to come in from from day one and and take over this job

i think another thing is also they're going to be a better team they're going to be playing with the lead the offensive line got better. They added Tristan Wirfs in the draft. You know, so the Agumboale point about the hurry up situation, you know, there's going to be less pick sixes. You know, the defense should be, you know, much more competent.

Brady's going to make them a more efficient offense. So playing with a lead should play into Ronald Jones, maybe Vaughn, but more so than a Gumbawali being on the field. Let's go to the Detroit lions who have not had a thousand yard rusher since Reggie Bush in 2013. They have not had a 700 yard rusher in five straight seasons.

Yikes. Yeah, this is, and they lost like two of their best offensive linemen. This might be a stay away. I'm not sure. So let's go to the Twitter poll here. Who do you prefer at their current ADP? DeAndre Swift in round 5 or Kerryon Johnson in round 9? Kerryon Johnson in round 9

has 56% of the vote and DeAndre Swift has 44%. Who likes... Jamie, I'll start with you. Who do you like better in this Detroit backfield? DeAndre Swift in the fifth or Kerryon Johnson in the ninth? I like Swift better, but I would rather have Kerryon Johnson here.

You like a value better for Johnson? Okay. Ben? Same. I like Kerryon Johnson's value a lot more. And I guess I don't even know if I like Swift more. I mean, I like Swift as a prospect, but I'm not ready to give up on

Kerryon Johnson. He was really good when he was healthy. He's not been able to stay healthy, but now he's going to be in a part-time role. I don't think he's bad. Heath? Yeah, I like Johnson better at this value. I do have Swift just like one. I think I have him back-to-back. I do think Johnson is more likely to be the pass-catching guy at the beginning of the year than swift is i hope that he can stay healthy finally but the point i would make about like i know we don't want to just talk about the colts again but one of the reasons we talk about the colts and the chiefs all the time is that if one guy wins one of those two battles they might be a top 10 running back. Kerryon Johnson could get hurt tomorrow,

and I'm not sure the Lions are going to produce a top 15 running back. Well, it's interesting because we kind of ranked him that way last year, right? I mean, we loved Kerryon Johnson going in the third round. I feel like he was, and I hate to say this, but as a podcast, I feel like he was like a consensus. We love that pick.

Third round, take Kerryon Johnson. Obviously, we were wrong. What's changed? Like you said, they had a much better offensive line going into last year, and Kerryon Johnson had looked very good in his first year as a runner. There were reasons for it.

Now that offensive line's not. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I think it's a good question about what's changed too, though, because I don't know how much has changed. He started last year, the first couple of games, and C.J. Anderson was cutting into him a little bit, and then they got rid of C.J. Anderson.

They turned over something like 75%, 77% of the snaps to Johnson for a couple of weeks, and then he got hurt. And he was good for a couple of weeks. And yeah, he wound up not having a great yards per carry for the very short season that he had. But he was solid for a couple of weeks in there until I'm pulling up his game log. He kind of stunk.

He really had one good game against the Chiefs. He didn't do anything with the opportunities. He scored some touchdowns, but I think we were just like, wow, Kerryon Johnson's just not doing well. Yeah, maybe that's true. And he wasn't that involved in the passing game. This dude is still only 22. Actually, I guess he turns 23 tomorrow,

but this was another really young player. Second round pick a couple years ago deandre swift's the second round pick now yes i i care that they just drafted deandre swift this year knowing what they have and carry on johnson and that makes me like deandre swift more but again matt patricia comes from the bill belichick line he might be wanting multiple backs and both these guys have very similar draft capital invested in them and this is another player that has two more years on his rookie contract which which matters to me. And similar to Ronald Jones and dissimilar from guys like Marlon Mack, who's like on his way out in Indianapolis. So I still think Kerryon Johnson's a decent value

in the ninth round, especially if you're in like a zero RB format, I think he's going to get touches and play. And this is going to be kind of an even split. Jamie should, should Kerryon Johnson be going three rounds or maybe two and a half rounds later than Damian Williams? I feel like in our drafts, they go pretty similarly. No, they should be closer, but this is just one backfield. I don't think I've drafted either guy very often. And I think maybe Ben and I are a little bit similar in how we target the rookie running backs.

For me, with Edward Soler, with him, with Taylor. But I think we're both pretty aggressive in how we draft these guys. I don't know about you, Ben, but I don't think I've taken DeAndre Swift at all, especially if he's going around five. If I see Swift and Akers there, I always lean Akers, just because I think there's a better offense, even though Swift was a better prospect. So if the choice is Kerryon Johnson in the range that he's going,

yes, he should be closer to Damian Williams because it is a similar setup, but it's not the same offense, and there's not as much of a ceiling. So if you're telling me Williams in the sixth and carry on in the ninth, I'd probably say if Williams is going in the sixth, maybe carry on late seven, early eight, but I don't think they should be that close, no.

Okay, and one thing, I'll play the role of Dave Richard because I feel like he brings this up a lot. Carry-on Johnson has an extensive injury history. He has just a lot of trouble staying healthy. Is that a factor? Yeah, that's the other side of it. If you do want to invest in Swift, you are waiting out the carry-on injury. And when the carry-on comes, unfortunately, it's happened in each of his two years in the NFL. Then there's a chance he could be a top 20 back, you know, Swift. I don't know if there's top 15 or top 10 upside just because of the offense. Talent wise. I mean, he's there with, you know, Edward Solaire and Taylor, you know, I mean, he was, you know, basically

prospecting between those guys. In some cases, people had him ahead of Taylor. But, you know, it's the same thing with J.K. Dobbins. If Mark Ingram goes down, Dobbins is going to be, you know, probably a monster. You know, and I think if you're investing in Swift, that's what you're hoping for. But if carry on does stay healthy and if the reduced touches and reduced workload helps them stay there, then it's going to be probably frustrating. All right. Last one. Buffalo. They drafted Zach Moss in the third round in the final six games of the regular season. Devin Singletary had the fourth most carries in the NFL. He had the fifth most rushing yards and he did not score a rushing touchdown.

He just barely got in the end zone, scored four touchdowns, two on the ground, two via the passing game in 12 games. But he had a really nice rookie season. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry. So now they draft Zach Moss. Final Twitter poll. Let's take a look. Who do you prefer at their current ADP?

Devin Singletary in round four, or Zach Moss in round 10? And remember, Frank Gore had 166 carries in 16 games last year. So Singletary in round four, Moss in round 10. Right now it is Singletary 54%, Moss 46%. Singletary

even six rounds earlier than Moss right now is leading the poll. Ben, who do you like better at their ADP? Singletary in round four or Moss in round 10? I think I clicked on Singletary, but this is the one that I don't really care. I think I've made my takes on this backfield pretty clear that I just don't really like the potential split in an offense

that the quarterback's going to run a lot and therefore not throw to the running backs a lot and also take some of the goal line work. I think there's potential value here. And I think both of these guys are cheap enough that especially Singletary, I've picked in some spots, not in the round, not in the round four range, but he can be had in the round six range sometimes, depending where you're looking. Would you put the rookies ahead?

I know you put Jonathan Taylor and Edwards Ely, but when you get to the Cam Akers, the Andre Swift, JK Dobbins group, would you take them over Singletary? When I said with Cam Akers, I like him because there's no one ever available in that range. The guy that was in my head was Devin Singletary, and I'm looking at my ratings right now.

I have Singletary one spot ahead of him. It's like right as soon as Singletary goes, that's when it's like, okay, it's KM Akers now. That's when we're getting into the rest of these rookies, but I do have Singletary ahead of the rest of the rookies. Heath, who do you like better, Singletary in the fourth or Moss in the 10th? I mostly agree with Ben that I don't want to draft

either of these running backs. And like the thing with Singletary is he illustrates part of the problem with the ADP everywhere, except for our drafts. I think I have him as my number 25 running back. He's currently the 24th running back off the board by ADP, but we don't have 24 running backs going in the first 47 picks of our draft. It's not so much that there's other running backs

that I like more than Singletary. It's just that I'm drafting wide receivers or tight ends at that spot where he's going. So everything Ben said, plus I think there's like a 30 to 40% chance that the Bills offense just regresses and isn't as good. Jamie, Singletary in the fourth or Moss in the 10th.

I love Zach Moss in round 10. There there's just, it's, it's, that's like a throwaway around, you know, when you start to get double digits and if he becomes, if he just takes Frank Boer's work,

he's younger, hopefully he's more explosive. You know, maybe they use him more in the passing game. They talked about that a little bit. I don't know if he profiles that so much. I don't think he does, but still, if they force that. But if he's getting the goal line opportunities, the touches in the five,

the touches in the 10 that Frank Gore had and had more than Singletary, then that's going to be the better player if it's a 50-50 split. So the six-round difference between those two and the investment essentially is the same in the NFL draft, what they did with Singletary, who I thought he's getting a little bit of a bad rap for how he performed last year because Josh Allen scored so many touchdowns and he didn't get the work inside the five and the 10. You know, I think he's a good player, but if it's a split situation and could be down the middle, like the chief situation, you know, we were saying 26 carries,

let's say it's, it's 13,13. However, the Bills split it up. Yes, Josh Allen is going to dominate the – or not dominate, but have the chance to steal all those short yardage touchdowns. But if Moss is 806, let's just say, rushing 805, and then maybe does 200 yards in the passing game and maybe another score there for round 10, that's just great. 800 rushing guards, though. I mean, that's

that's like almost 200 carries unless he's really efficient. And you're talking like 180 carries or something. 700 yards. You know, I mean, I'm just ballparking, you know, just whatever the case may be. I don't know what you guys haven't projected for, you know, could be 650 and five, you know, I mean for what you're getting in round 10, just to see

you know, we're talking about draft. You don't have to start him if you take him in that spot. And if he's better than Singletary and the best running back in Buffalo and maybe by a large margin over Singletary, I just don't understand why you would take Singletary that soon. So for me, he's become an avoid and Moss has become a target if I can get him in double digits. Like Devin Singletary had a very good year. That's the last thing I just want to say. I agree. Yeah, he looked great.

And he caught six passes in the playoff game. So not to say that he's going to be a 50-catch guy, but maybe 30. Devin Singletary did not do anything to justify, you know, not being a big time ball carrier. I just wish they would just pick. What's that? Uh, well, to a fourth round pick.

No, but 24th running back off the board. Like you said, yes. Yeah. Um, I think this is more, it's a couple of things.

One, it's more just how many running backs are going that early. I think people have made a little mistake in recognizing correctly that there are very few great running backs, but their response to that was we're going to draft a lot of average to mediocre running backs much earlier than we should. Yeah. Ding, ding, ding, ding.

Agreed. Yeah. I'm glad you liked that. But no, what do you, what do you guys anticipate? Cause what I, what I've seen is essentially like 14 running backs in the first two rounds

i can see that yeah i think it that's um i think it's yeah you get into trouble after those top you know i don't know if it's all the way down to 14, but at least top 12 or 13. Yeah, okay, 14. I'm looking at my list now or so. But then you get into trouble, and I think it was Heath's point as well. Like, then everyone just keeps drafting running backs. And, like, I believe that drafts should pivot hard at that point. And you should start drafting all these receivers that end up going in the

fourth and the fifth and the sixth because, you know, Leonard Fournette has already gone off the board instead of, you know, a legitimately good receiver in, in some drafts who, you know, whoever that may be Cooper cup or Robert Woods or somebody, those guys should go ahead of Leonard Fournette every single draft,

but they don't. Right. Who do you guys like better late round, Daryl Henderson or Zach Moss? I think format matters. I think Henderson may a little bit more upside in PPR. I think format matters. I think Henderson may have a little bit more upside in PPR. I'll take Henderson. Yeah.

I have... I would take Moss because I just think he could be the best guy in Buffalo. I have Moss over Henderson, but I wanted to say Henderson. That's a good question. And what I was going to say about Singletary, it took me a while to get there,

was that I feel like he has earned the opportunity with Buffalo. I don't know. You know, the third round pick in Moss isn't a huge investment either. So I'm interested. Are you saying that as if he's not going to be the guy to start the season? I'm saying like if he gets the role that I think he earned last year when you just look at how good he was and what he did in the

playoff game and you know Frank Gore was so bad near the goal line. I don't know why they didn't use Singletary there and hopefully they will. I think that he could be worth a fourth round pick and we keep saying fourth round. Well, I think he's worth a fifth round pick. I don't think it's like outlandish to take Singletary in the fourth round.

I'm saying that Devin Singletary played well enough last year where it really wouldn't surprise me if Zach Moss had a very limited role. And they just made Devin Singletary their running back. And even though he didn't catch a lot of passes, you know, which he probably won't, that he'd still be very valuable in fantasy. He very well could be. I just think fourth round for me is a little too soon. And there were some concerns about like whether he could handle, like at his size could handle 300 touches in the NFL when he was coming out of college. Right.

So the fact that he did suffer an injury last year and they kept him in a kind of a tandem role and then they drafted somebody else. I think they just maybe see him as more of a running back by committee guy. And it could be, you know, the Goomba Wally, Malcolm Brown situation. TJ Yeldon may have a role that we don't really anticipate,

but could still be there passing down again. All right. Well, everybody, thank you for participating in the Twitter polls. Appreciate that. I'm just upset that you ignored my Miami Dolphins suggestion. Yeah,

we had to bid some good suggestions and none from Ben. Sorry. I had a, um, another Twitter poll, Adam, that I would like to get everybody's response to. Yeah, go for it. The top five rookie running backs, Clyde, Taylor, Aker, Swift, Dobbins, all being drafted in the first 65 picks.

How many busts are there out of that group? How are we defining busts? How do you want to define it, Ben? I'll let you. Well, because I think sometimes we say, like, does their full season end of season rank end up falling higher or lower than their draft spot? But I think a lot of those

guys are going to be better when it matters late in the season. You know what I mean? If Clyde Edwards, he layer is not a top 20 running back and he's drafted in the second round. I would say he was a bust. Yeah. I'm going to say three,

three, he doesn't really contribute to your team. He's a bust. Yeah. Dobbins is a guy that you're hoping for basically Nick Chubb's rookie year when Carlos Hyatt ended up getting traded. I don't think Ingram's going to get traded, but Chubb was barely getting used, and then all of a sudden he was the lead back for a while and was very good. That's what you're hoping with Dobbins.

So whether that happens or not is going to dictate whether he's a bust. He's an upside pick through and through. All right. So let's answer the question. I'd say three. Jamie, I think you said three, right? Yeah, I think it's Dobbins, Swift and then one of the three guys I actually like. Yeah, I think that's fair. I'll say two, though. I don't I think one of Dobbins or, you know, maybe even Swift winds up being fine. And probably one of the guys I like winds up not being very good. So Heath is going to say four, but he wants to say five. Um, I, well,

the reason I asked is because I will have four in my bus column. I thought that seems too high, but it's almost all running backs because that's all anybody's drafting in the first six rounds. And so I have four in the bus column. I think the right answer is probably three, but as long as three of those four are, then it's fine. I don't understand why you would do it like this. You put zero to one, two to three, four more and see results. You wasted a perfectly good opportunity. You could have had 0-1, then 2, then 3, then 4

or more. You didn't have to, but see results is clogging this up. This is a bad use of it. Okay. One thing I will say is I would love... We're winding down the show, but I would love to jump back into

the top backs that have been drafted in the last couple of years. Josh Jacobs, I don't think was a bus last year. Miles Sanders, I don't think was a bus last year. David Montgomery, maybe. Right. But those are guys that going into the year, we didn't really feel super confident in their role, except I guess Jacobs. And then I would like to go back even further, but I know obviously the 2020 class is really good. A lot more backs went in the top 60 picks,

the top two rounds, than have in several recent drafts for a lot of years. I don't know the exact number, but there's a lot of good players in this draft and for good reason. And the league thought so. They drafted them higher than they normally draft running backs.

So it would be interesting to go back and look. You know, Nick Chubb was fine in his rookie year. I'm looking back at the year before. Rashad Penny and Sonny Michel sucked. I can tell you, I mean, I have all this, you know, we get, we get good running backs every year. 2020 was actually, or 2019 was kind of a bad year. I mean, Josh Jacobs was 14th in non-PPR, 21st in PPR.

Miles Sanders was 15th overall. But the year before, Barkley was RB2. Phillip Lindsay was top 12. Nick Chubb was 15th in non and 18th in PPR. The year before that, Kareem Hunt and Alba Kamara were top five. Leonard Fournette was top 10. Christian McCaffrey was 10th in PPR. So these rookie running back 2016, Ezekiel Elliott.

Those guys were not drafted in the first five rounds of fantasy drafts. Can you go back to last year, though? Yeah. Because how many rookie running backs do we really care about from that class? Four? Jacob, Sanders, Singletary, Montgomery? Care about now? Yeah.

Even before the season last year? Yeah, based on ADP, those are the four that I remember going anywhere. I would say by the end of the season, three of them were starting for you. Yeah, but the thing is, like, Miles Sanders paid off and probably won you a league or came close, but he was not worth a pick in the first five rounds.

He was going in, like, the eighth round. Wait, what? I would guess Miles Sanders was dropped in at least a third of leagues. He was a useless player for, like, 12 weeks or whatever it was. But I don't think he won a useless for 12 weeks. He had a couple of good games earlier. He was paid off and for like 12 weeks or whatever it was. 10, 11 weeks. He had a couple of good games earlier. He was paid off and won you a league or whatever, but he wasn't worth a fifth round pick? No.

No, because fifth round picks are important. I mean, like you can't just waste a roster spot with a fifth round pick. If you're just planning on a guy having a big finish, I don't think that's worth a top 60 pick. In my opinion. But he was still serviceable though. He was not. I really don't think he was. I don't even think he was a top 60 pick, in my opinion. But he was still serviceable, though. He was not. I really don't think he was.

I don't even think he was a top five pick for what it's worth. And actually, he was definitely serviceable. He was getting downfield receiving early in the year. And nobody was starting him based on that, though. That was like fluky plays. He wasn't getting enough touches. He was not somebody who was starting. He was frustrated.

I didn't drop him, but I remember having a lot of moments where I was like, gosh, do I have to drop Miles Sanders right now? I mean, you're playing in way different leagues than me then. I mean, that's just like, there was no point where I ever thought of dropping Miles Sanders. I wrote him up as the best trade candidate in Stealing Signals after, I think, the second or third week. You got lucky. No, I didn't. If Jordan Howard didn't get hurt, if Jordan Howard didn't get hurt,

it never would have happened. That's why you targeted him. I also wrote up Royce Freeman for the same reason. Phillip Lindsey never got hurt. Royce Freeman's great receiving role didn't expand to a full-time role. It did expand from Miles Sanders. That's how you identify running back upside.

Yeah, but you can't just bank on injuries. That's not a worthwhile strategy. You can't only... Okay, but you can't just bank on injuries. That's not a worthwhile strategy. You can't only, okay, but I will say in kind, you can't only define running back success as 16 game seasons when fantasy football is littered with examples of guys who broke out late in the year.

I agree. I would say. Hold on. Last point. I agree with that, Ben. I just personally, if I feel like I'm only drafting this guy so he can be great for me late in the year, that to me is not a top 60 pick, not a guy taking the first five rounds. If you won in the first round of your playoffs with Miles Sanders, you got lucky because he had like 60 yards and no scores.

So he did help a lot if you were able to get to the semifinals. I don't think, me personally, I wouldn't qualify three of those guys as being bad. They may not have been Barkley or Zeke, but I mean, Jacobs, I think, delivered. They weren't bad at all. I was just saying... You said last year was a bad year for Ricky Reignbeck.

By comparison to Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, these guys who finished top five. Yeah, they may not have been a lead singer of this group, but there was certainly a good group. Oh, it was. No, no, no. I'm just saying they didn't finish as high as we had seen

in I think three straight years where we had a top five rookie running back. They didn't finish top 12, but they were good for sure. Jacob's more consistent. Sanders with that big burst at the end. And we love both of them this year, but just in terms of fantasy production,

it didn't really happen the same way as we had seen in previous seasons. Adam, do you have the ADP from last year in front of you or handy? I can get it. Yeah. Give me where they were drafted. Like just just to make any correlation. Like I think Edward Solaire is going to go sooner than any of those guys went last year. Maybe Jacobs

crept into the back in the second round. Oh, no. I would almost guarantee that you're right that it's going to be that's going to be of those guys went last year maybe jacobs crept into the back into the second round oh no i i would almost guarantee that you're right that it's going to be um that's going to be earlier that he's these guys are being drafted earlier than those guys were i think yeah i agree with that i'm trying to look something up and talk sorry but the year the year before that you definitely had um four net mcafree going in the edwards hilaire range, I think, or maybe not McCaffrey quite. And then definitely the year before that, are we getting back to Saquon and Zeke's years?

They were first-round picks, and they were successful first-round picks. Okay, so let's take a look at 2019 half PPR ADPs according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Josh Jacobs. Okay, I'm still on 2020. So we're going to toggle over to 2019. All right, Josh Jacobs checks in at 32nd overall.

Round three. Miles Sanders. Yeah, round five, which surprises me. I thought he was more like a round seven pick. I think he was in our drafts. Montgomery? Montgomery.

Round three. Wow. He was ahead of Jacobs, according to this. I don't remember that being the case. And then Singletary? Singletary. He was like a ninth rounder or something. Round seven.

Well, last pick of round seven. Tied with Wolf. I just think Montgomery's the only bust of that group. Yeah, he's the only one I would call a bust. And he was still a 250 carry back. You know, like he just wasn't very good. Yeah. Okay, but what's unique,

let's go through the situations here. Montgomery, did he really have to fight anybody off? No. Mike Davis. Singletary should have beaten Frank Gore. Singletary had bad competition. I thought Miles Sanders had bad competition. Jordan Howard's not bad. He's fine. And who was the other? Josh Jacobs had no competition. That's what's so interesting about this year. We kind of knew it going in. There weren't that many landing spots. I think I remember, Jamie, you saying that the Dolphins were the one spot where somebody could get drafted. Tampa Bay, I thought too. I feel like there's better competition for the rookies this year than there was last year. And they didn't get OTAs or rookie camp.

True. Guys, let me read some emails. That's true and fair and all well and good. I agree with that. But that doesn't – you can go back further. I just want to bring up – you didn't mention Dalvin Cook. He started as the lead back the same offseason they had brought in Latavius Murray. There was uncertainty there.

He was a second-round pick. Alvin Kamara is a guy who was a third-round pick and joined in a backfield that had Ingram and Adrian Peterson. The cream rises to the top in some of these backfields. When you look further back, those guys just were better players. I think Jonathan Taylor, I've said this, it's just going to be so much better than Marlon Mack that it's going to be evident and he's going to earn more work because of it. And I don't think that's a, I think there's enough evidence in recent history that rookie running backs can do that in year one.

I'm curious. I know we talk about the rookies coming in and knowing things because of the lack of an offseason. I wonder how many veteran guys are going to come in out of shape. Very possible. Yeah, I mean, I could give you the history of the last five years of running backs

and the work they've gotten based on the round they were drafted in. I don't think it's that interesting, but say the words and I'm happy to. Yeah. All right. Here we go. Over the last five seasons, round two running backs, TJ Yeldon and Dalvin Cook were the only round two running backs who got big work right out of the gate. Joe Mixon had to wait until round three or week three, week three, round three running backs. 16 running backs have been drafted in round three. Round three running backs.

16 running backs have been drafted in round three in the last five years, obviously not including 2020. David Johnson, Alva Kamara, and Kareem Hunt were top eight as rookies. They were the only ones who were top 20. But two of those three, though they were top eight as rookies, two of those three,

you could have gotten for pennies on the dollar a month into the season. Who, Kamara and Hunt? Oh, no, Johnson. Johnson. Johnson and Kamara, yep. And Hunt benefited from Spencer Ward tearing his ACL in the preseason.

So I actually was a little discouraged by what rookie running backs had done, at least in terms of getting work out of the gate. Non-first rounders. Non-first rounders. First rounders have like a green light. Of course, we haven't seen somebody drafted with the last pick of the gate. Non-first rounders. Non-first rounders. First rounders have like a green light. Of course, we haven't seen somebody drafted with the last pick of the first round. But yeah, first rounders usually...

I got to disagree with that penny-sum-dollar comment. Again, I don't know what leagues we're talking about. There's certainly leagues where you can make those types of trades. But I remember the year that Nick Chubb broke out and I remember people being like, how was he not dropped yet? Nick Chubb was like a seventh or an eighth round pick that year until, and he wasn't getting a lot of work until Carlos Hyde was traded. But anyone who used a seventh or an eighth round pick on that player or used a 10th round

pick on Alvin Kamara the year that he broke out and saw anything positive out of him in the first couple of weeks. And Kamara was catching passes early in his rookie season. He's another guy that in stealing signals, I called the biggest trade candidate of the week for one of these early weeks. And he went on to be an awesome player his rookie season, because you can identify this stuff from their pass catching role. I don't, who's drafting a guy like that in the middle round and then cutting them.

You can't make that case about Nick Chubb. Nick Chubb had three carries per game and no catches before the Carlos Hightrade. No, no, no. Chubb wasn't that guy. Camaro was that guy. But Chubb was the example. I remember people saying that.

I distinctly remember, like, how did no one drop this guy? And my point was he had a single-digit round ADP. People drafting him were drafting him for the possibility that Carlos Hight either got hurt or got moved because they saw late season upside they weren't cutting him a month into the season because he wasn't getting touches his value didn't suddenly disappear you can't the only reason people may have been cutting him and I'm I agree with you 100% Ben is you're you have a five-man bench and you suffered injuries at receiver or quarterback and you're just completely stuck

and the guy's not doing anything and you're making a panic move instead of maybe trying to trade him or, you know, you may not have trades. There are a number of circumstances, but you shouldn't give up on players that have good college backgrounds and good prospect potential. Or you shouldn't draft them if you're not going to sit them out. Right. But like my point is I don't think their draft or the trade value sinks because they're not being used.

The people drafting these people, I would hope. When you look at ownership, you will see that in a third of our leagues on our website, these players are going to get. So I know in our leagues, you're right. And when you're playing with sharp players, these things don't happen. But 95% of the leagues in the universe are not like our leagues. Yeah. But, but also like, I don't, I mean, you know, I love you, Ben, but I don't really agree with, I don't really agree with the premise of just holding a guy and waiting for

injury or drafting a guy waiting for injury. You could really get burned by the injury not happening or the injury being two games and not a season ender, you know? So I think that Nick Chubb was a completely useless player for six weeks and anyone who dropped him would have been completely justified. Well, then you shouldn't have drafted him

because that team still had Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson. But you didn't know he was going to get three carries. You probably thought he was going to get more than that. And if I take Keyshawn Vaughn... I think the game he had against the Raiders was like three for a hundred something. Yeah, he had one big game. Three hundred five yards and two touchdowns.

But let's say this is Keyshawn Vaughn territory, right? If you draft Keyshawn Vaughn and he has three carries per game and no catches in the first six weeks, drop him. Drop him. That's fine. You don't have to, but I'm not going to criticize him. I don't necessarily even disagree with that because Keyshawn Vaughn isn't the type of player, Nick Chubb, that's fine. You don't have to, but I'm not going to criticize him.

I don't necessarily even disagree with that because Keyshawn Vaughn isn't the type of player, Nick Chubb, in my opinion. If he's not getting work, then... This is can makers. This is... Yeah. With...

J.K. Dobbins. If you're drafting J.K. Dobbins this year, you're not cutting him a month into the season if Mark Ingram's getting the work. You're waiting for Mark Ingram to potentially get banged up. What about two months? Well, I mean, that's the thing.

It depends how deep your league is, but don't draft him if you're in a format where you have to cut him within the first six weeks. I mean, two months is maybe the point. You'd rather take Latavius Murray in that range because you just want somebody who's going to get work. Yeah. But then the question is,

if you're willing to wait it out with a guy and accept basically you're going to bench him every week, you're never going to start him, you're just waiting for the payoff, what round is the earliest round you would take a player like that? Depends on your conviction on somebody. You know, so I think it's...

I'm trying to think of an example. I mean, Jonathan Taylor is not a bad example. A lot of leagues where I'm taking him, I'm taking like Tariq Cohen later, and if the preseason doesn't go the way I hope for Jonathan Taylor, I might start Tariq Cohen in week one over him because I might not know how many touches he's going to get from week one. Then you might start Tariq Cohen in week one over him because I might not know how many touches he's going to get from week one. Then you basically

took Tariq Cohen in the third round. That's essentially what you're doing. No, that's not how it works. That is how it works. Your third round pick is useless, and so you're starting Tariq Cohen over him. He's not useless. You're paying for upside. But you're paying for a useless player with upside. It goes back to something I told you years ago.

You have to win championships not to just make the playoff. But the thing is, if I want to take a shot on a guy with big upside, I don't want to do it in the third round. You can't do it in the tenth and you cannot take a play with Jonathan Taylor's upside. I think the seventh round is where I'm usually looking for a guy that's not going to contribute.

I believe that Taylor is going to walk into the Colts facility when they're allowed to go in there and he's going to push Marlon Mack off the field completely. Yeah, I get that. I get that. And I think, I think these players are more like,

uh, Josh Kelly, Darrington Evans, Tony Pollard, Chase Edmonds. Like you're not drafting these guys with the hope of playing them week one. Of course you draft these guys with the hope of X, Y,

Z happens. And you have Miles Sanders. I don't know if that's the right comparison. Yeah, I know, but Jamie, you're not taking those guys until the late rounds. That's my point. Yes, I mean, you'd prefer to do that. But I think, for me, Akers is that type of player.

I'm not going to get frustrated with Cam Akers if I take him in the fifth round and cut him a month into the season if Daryl Henderson's better or Malcolm Brown's better. Yeah. And I, I sparked all this with the pennies on the dollar thing that Ben really didn't like.

What I will say is if you're someone in your league uses a fourth or third round pick on Jonathan Taylor and a fifth round pick on Deandre Swift and a month into the season or either of those things, that team sitting at one and three and that running back is getting five to 10 carries per game. Then you can absolutely trade someone you drafted much later than where they were drafted to get them. Yeah, I would,

I wouldn't draft two of those guys in the first five rounds like you just described. That'd be silly. Okay. All right, well, I think we can all agree on that. Because Ben, I don't think Heath is, and I don't know about you, Adam, but Dave is going to take DeAndre Swift probably in the round five range because he likes him a lot. For me, it'd probably be Akers. And for Ben, it's pretty clear by the time we get to August, he's drafting John Till in the first round.

But, you know, aside from Edward Solaire, because, you know august he's drafting john tell in the first round um but you know aside from edward salera because you know i think he kind of i think i've kind of dropped him a little bit toward the back end of round two and i'd feel the most comfortable with him in round three um but i i think you know you just look at the kind of title and you look at the the situations that these guys are in and if you feel confident that these younger players that the team's targeted in the NFL draft are going to be the best of that group, Zach Moss, throw him in there.

Keyshawn Vaughn, throw him in there too. Then you should be aggressive in drafting them, but you have to have the right mindset of don't panic. If they're not doing what you hope they're doing in the first couple of weeks. And I just want to add one, one little note to kind of tie in my thoughts was you're not doing what you hope they're doing in the first couple of weeks. And I just want to add one little note to kind of tie in my thoughts was you're not drafting a team. This is at least the way that I approach it. You're not drafting a team

so that you can have one set starting lineup that you really like and you start for 16 weeks. Your team is going to live and evolve throughout the season. None of our teams have ever looked the same in the fantasy playoffs as they looked on draft day. You're going to cut players. You're going to add players. Things are going to happen. You want to draft a team that can get better as time goes on and help you win a championship

at the end of the season. You don't want to draft a team that helps you win week one with a million points because you were so confident in all the week one workloads and then is like falling apart by mid season. I mean, you have to understand that. I agree. But, but okay. I just think that like, it is crazy to take Jonathan Taylor earlier this year than people were taking Josh Jacobs last year because Josh Jacobs was walking into a starting job. And I think that, you know, I'm just not willing, Ben.

I'm not willing to get off to a slow start because I passed up awesome stud contributors in round three or round four for a guy that I have to wait half a season on. Like, I get the point of drafting a guy, stashing him, waiting for the payoff. I think it's happening earlier this year in drafts than it has in previous years.

And I'm surprised that these rookie running backs, it's like people are just assuming they're going to walk in and win the job. I'm surprised it's happening as early in drafts as it is. Well, to that point, Adam, I think it's kind of why we're seeing so many running backs in the first two rounds or people leaning that way.

You know, so I'll go back to our show on Monday with Scott Fish. Think about the draft that he had and the words that he used. He took Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb with his first two picks, the half PPR three receiver league. And then he took Patrick Mahomes in round three and Mark Andrews in round four. And what did he say to us? Safety. He got elite players at two positions,

or at least we assume Andrews is going to be elite out of homes is and then two running backs i think most of us would agree uh whether you you know top six top eight top ten top twelve i know he's here a little down on mixing but um you know two top twelve running backs that are almost certainly going to go in the first two rounds like that's not a bad build i don't think any of us would probably do that quarterback tight end that early. No, I,

I loved it. I just, I always, I love our, I love to start with two running backs. I don't take my third one until like the fifth round at the earliest. That's because I, because there is too much,

like, I, you pivot. Yeah. Go ahead. The build of, of running back, running back gets you out of this mess exactly

on those those two guys you don't have to and i know ben's going to be aggressive with taylor but you don't have to take taylor in the third or fourth or acres in the fifth or swift in the fifth or sixth it gets you out of that if you don't want to or now you have the security of like ben was saying your team at the start of the year is not going to be your team at the end of the year but if you have one of these guys you can just kind of wait on without having to play them and not have to worry about Tariq Cohen, you have those two guys. You don't have to put – no offense, Tariq,

but you don't have to put in that third or fourth running back that you're taking that you don't love but you're forced to play because the high upside player isn't doing what you hope to do. This is a brilliant idea. I don't think anybody's put a name on it yet, Jamie, but taking two running backs early and then no more until the seventh or eighth round, I think you'd call that area in the third, fourth, fifth, sixth round something, like a running back dead zone.

I love it. That's the new Acer strategy, just avoiding the running backs. All right, guys, let's wrap it up here. Thank you. That was a fun discussion. We'll read your emails on Wednesday's show, I promise. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. Don't forget about Twitch tonight, Tuesday night, 7 p.m. Eastern,

twitch.com slash FFtoday. Become a subscriber. Get a chance to join a league play with us. And you don't have to subscribe. You can watch on Twitch for free as well, and you can ask us questions during our stream, 7 p.m. Eastern. For Ben, for Jamie, for Heath, I'm Adam. Talk to you on wednesday's show