Fantasy Football Today - Top 5 Players We're Avoiding (07/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 2, 2020

TRAP backs, TD regression candidates, injury risks and more! Who are we avoiding in drafts? Aaron Jones (2:15) is being drafted too early. When will we be willing to take Derrick Henry (13:15)? What is it that we have against these two players who finished as Top 5 RBs in 2019? ... Much of the show is about RBs including Leonard Fournette (22:00), Chris Carson (26:55) and two players with very different profiles that Ben is avoiding for different reasons (35:00) ... Want to hear about some WRs who are being taken too early (46:26)? A couple of big names are on Jamey's list including Odell Beckham. And which TEs are the guys hesitant to draft (57:40)? ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. You know, every year, you look at your draft board, you look at the rankings,

there are just some players that are on your do not draft list, basically. Some players that, man, the value has to be so good for you to take them. And we welcome you to the Thursday edition of Fantasy Football today on July 2nd. We're recording on Wednesday, July 1st. But happy Thursday, everybody. And happy July. It's training camp month. Oh, yeah.

So what do we call this list? We're calling it the top five players we are avoiding. Jamie's got five. Ben's got five. Jamie, what's the best way to think call this list? We're calling it the top five players we are avoiding. Jamie's got five. Ben's got five. Jamie, what's the best way to think about this list? It's not a complete and utter do not draft list exactly, but what's the best way to frame it? I think drafting

the guys in the spots that they're going. Yeah, but like it had to be a substantial discount for you. You just don't want them, right? You're not excited to draft them. Is fair so yes so like for example i'm not gonna pass on derrick henry if he falls to round three you know like i'm not gonna be that stupid um but i'm not gonna take him in round one even in nine or half ppr and i'm not gonna probably take him in round one or two

in ppr so he's somebody that i will avoid and probably be wrong on because he's awesome. But I just, I'm afraid of the touches from a year ago. And I'm going to compare some of the ADP we're seeing for these players to what we saw in the mock draft that we reviewed on Monday with Scott fish, the industry mock draft. Like you take a look at this group of,

of four picks in round four, middle of round four, Odell Beckham, Melvin Gordon, Levy on bell, Amari Cooper, three of those four players Odell, Beckham, Melvin, Gordon, Levy on bell, Amari Cooper. Three of those four players are among the 10 that we're going to be talking about today on the do not draft list. But the other part of that is actually three of those four players are going a little bit later than their ADP. So, um, we'll give you some different ways

to approach this. Ben, do you want to add anything or, or do you want to just talk about players? You don't want to draft. No, I think Jamie's right. I mean, I agree with him on Henry and not being a big fan of his, and I also have to agree that I would probably draft him in the third round. I mean, that's a point where, like, even me with Dick Henry, I think I would pull the trigger. So, yeah, I mean, there's always going to be a point. Aaron Jones is another guy I think we're going to talk about today

that I'm not real fond of, but I drafted him in our uh scott fishmock last night on twitch or i guess two nights ago for the people who are hearing this on thursday um because he was there at the i think it was at 3.12 you know in a in a super flex and there was a lot of qbs that had gone but that that to me was pretty clearly the best running back still left, even though I'm not very high on him at all. Yeah, we are going to talk about him. Think about this with Aaron Jones, though. I went back and I just looked at the top five running backs of the last five years.

They don't lose work the next year. I don't think there's been one where we're like, well, we're not buying this guy. It's just something to think about. You're still in the Aaron Jones camp of he's a round two pick, right? I think 24th. Right there, two, three turn.

There's a heavy run on running backs. You want him back. Let's say you're picking 21. You may take him. You may fall to 26 yeah okay so what's your expectation for him given that he scored 19 total touchdowns last year that his passing work the majority of it and all of his receiving touchdowns came when davante adams was gone and the fact that they added a guy who can significantly cut into his goal line opportunities, his red zone opportunities, his five-yard scoring opportunities,

wherever you want to place that number. And he had the most red zone touchdowns, I believe, last year for a running back. How much does he fall from that? 12 touchdowns. He goes to 12 touchdowns. Yeah. So a seven-touchdown decline. Yeah. So a seven touchdown decline. Yeah, it's a big one.

And you skewed your own personal numbers to include him in the 50 catch running back. 49 catches. Right. No, I don't think he'll get there. I don't think he'll get there. So where does he go? Although I do think that...

Man, I want to make sure I get this right. Was he second on the team in receiving last year? I believe he was. I think a running back's been second on the team receiving under Matt LaFleur like every year he's been coordinator, second or third, coordinator or coach. It's a big part of his offense. So, you know, I think he'll do a little like, I think he'll be like 40 catches.

And I just think they're going to be a very, very run-heavy offense. And the other thing, Jamie, about him is that I think he's a bridge running back. He's sort of the end of a tier. He's before you get to the guys that are older that have a lot of downside. I also don't buy into A.J. Dillon

taking him off the field near the goal line that much. I don't know. The A.J. Dillon thing, I kind of agree with that and i agree with you that he's a bridge tier and particularly when you talk about the downside of the guys behind him aaron jones probably doesn't have that type of downside like he's going to be good he's always been very efficient but the problem with the comparison you made where guys that are that good continue to get work is aaron jones usage last year was so unique jamie

touched on it with the receiving where all of his receiving touchdowns and so much of his receiving work came when Adams was hurt and Adams could get hurt again. But also he only played 65% of the snaps in four games. Those were the two games that Jamal Williams got hurt and two more that Jamal Williams left early. They essentially were like not willing to use him as a 65% or more running back snap share running back unless their

other back got hurt and so now they've added a third back and in those four games where he did hit that snap share that's where three of his 500 yard rushing games came he only had two other ones in his other 12 games so like they they didn't use him all of his usage last year how high his rushing got and where his best rushing games came and how high his receiving got and where his best receiving yards came. They all came in like emergency situations for the team when another player was injured. And that's very odd. And then they go and they draft a running back. So no matter what you think about A.J. Dillon, it's just seems pretty clear that they're making even even more evident that they don't want to use him

as a workhorse it's which isn't good for fantasy i mean it might be smart to preserve a guy who's sub 210 pounds and use him as more of an explosive change of pace type type player um but like we saw this a guy we saw this with for a long time was jamal charles very explosive player and the chiefs early especially early in his career when they still have Thomas Jones, they kept doing this year after year, they wouldn't give him Charles enough work. And then eventually he did get enough work. And I assume that Aaron Jones is going to go on to have a great career, but it just seems like in 2020, that's not what they want to do. Well, if you recall, I thought before the NFL draft, you know, Aaron Jones was being drafted, you know, end of the first round in a lot of our drafts,

and I thought he was going too early because I said the touches just aren't there. The difference between the way I've been seeing it and I think the way you guys are seeing is I just don't think A.J. Dillon has that big of a factor. And if he is a big factor, I think it'll come at the expense of Jamal Williams. And I think they're going to try to run the ball more than they did last year because that's been Matt LaFleur's tendency as well. He's a run-heavy coach in limited years. So I don't think A.J. Dillon affects Aaron Jones.

Aaron Jones is where he is in my mind 24th overall. He's been that the entire offseason. When he was going too early before the NFL draft and after the NFL draft because I guess I just don't, as of right now, don't really see Dylan having much more of a role than Jamal Williams did last year. And quite frankly, I just don't think Jamal Williams deserves that much of a role.

I think he should be just an afterthought in this offense and let Aaron Jones, maybe Aaron Jones gets more catches this year because Jamal Williams doesn't do much. And he picks up some of the slack in that area. The thing that I fear the most with Aaron Jones is how much of the touchdown regression is there going to be. Because I don't think his touches are going to change dramatically. I think you're right.

He goes from 49 catches to 40. And Dylan probably takes on the bulk of the 106 or 109 carries that Jamal Williams had and that that's probably where he wins in terms of getting his touches from because yes why would you want to run Jamal Williams when he's probably better suited to be more of a pass catching type of option change of pace type of option but if he goes from 19 touchdowns to five or six you're really in trouble by taking him there. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. That would be crazy.

He only had nine the year before, and that was with a high touchdown rate. Yeah, he had a lot fewer touches, but I think he only played 12 games too, so to be fair. But I think, Adam, to your point about not thinking that Dylan is really going to take on that much of a role like we still have to take into account that the packers made the decision to draft this guy in the second round like they they made that decision do you think their first round pick's gonna have a big role no but i i do think i'm just making fun of the packers the the big thing with jones for his first two years because what you just said about about Jamal Williams as well, was like everyone in the fantasy community wanted the Packers to unleash Aaron Jones.

They thought he was a more talented back and he's been more efficient and more productive than Jamal Williams whenever given touches. But they kept using Williams and they kept using Williams for a reason. I think he's a better pass blocker. They like him on passing downs, like James said. Whether or not we think that Aaronones is good enough to keep jamal williams off the field he wasn't uh doing that he wasn't actually keeping him off the field until last year and last year everyone's like okay aaron jones is finally unleashed but when you dig into the stuff the numbers and the in the the splits you realize like they didn't really unleash him

you know they only did it because they had to. Correct. And then they, they did in the playoffs. And I just wonder if he, if he has earned a bigger role going into the final year of his contract, but fair enough. I, let me just finish up. I can't use,

I can't use that terminology though. I understand why you're doing it based on what he did, but earning and what they've showed us and what they've told us with their actions, I just don't see how that's happening. earning and what they've showed us and what they've told us with their actions. I just don't see how that's happening. Unless they just don't want to give him a second contract and they're planning on losing him after this year and Jamal, they're both free agents,

right? He and Jamal Williams. I mean, their draft speaks to the future. Yeah. The first round pick their second round pick. It's, it speaks for let's have something in place for Rogers.

Let's have something in place that could bridge the gap for what happens if Jones and Williams are gone after the season. The other part of it that's small, but it could be impactful, is Brian Belaga's loss as well. Losing a key piece of the offensive line is not the best thing for a team that was so good in how they blocked last year. So let me just finish with this. If I say I'm thinking around the 2-3 turn for Jones, when are you guys comfortable

taking him? And his average draft position is 13th overall, 10th running back off the board. His ADP, that's on NFC. In the most recent draft we did a couple weeks ago with the industry insider with the experts in the industry, he went 16th overall. When would you take Aaron

Jones? Mid-round three. I'm late three. I took him at 312 in that other format where I said quarterbacks went early, but also is a running back heavy format because of some point per first down elements. And in traditional PPR, I would take receivers there potentially.

So for me, it's more late round three in a PPR. In non-PPR, yeah, I would take him earlier in the third probably. Yeah. I think if push comes to shove, if I had the first pick and I took Christian McCaffrey

and I was playing in a PPR league, I'm probably not going to take Aaron Jones there. That's like Juju, Galladay, Ridley, Cup, range.

Juju in particular. DJ Moore in some cases. And I'm hopeful that... If you're not drafting with Ben. That's... Juju, Gallaudet, Ridley, Cup. Yeah. Range. Juju in particular. DJ Moore in some cases. And I'm hopeful that... If you're not drafting with Ben. That if it's full PPR with three receivers that a slightly better running back than Aaron Jones might be available there. But okay.

Let me tell you about our Facebook group. The decision you might have to make, not to belabor the point, I'm sorry, but is Edward Solaire versus Jones. And I think most people are probably leaning toward Jones. And I get it., I'm sorry, but is Edward Soler versus Jones. And I think most people would probably lean toward Jones. And I get it, but I'm just scared. I have Edward Soler ahead of him. One spot.

Same. You guys. So simpatico. All right. Join our Facebook group. I mean, you have your two smartest analysts. Yeah, I know. I love this. It's a great show. Search Fantasy Football today on Facebook or click on the link in the description to chat with the FFT team and other fantasy fans. Facebook group's really fun.

Get in there. Good, good topics of conversation and you can discuss draft strategies and things like that. Thank you for joining us Tuesday night on Twitch. Also a lot of fun. We did the Scott fishbowl mock draft and yeah, I said the scoring is so different that I I just like, was my team good?

I don't know. I wish we could play it out. But Scott Fishbowl drafts are starting on Monday, and we will play those out. We got a Twitter poll for you. And Derrick Henry was one of the five players that Jamie gave me. He does not want to draft Derrick Henry. He's going eighth in NFC ADP. And I believe he went eighth in our CBS mock draft. So I asked, where do you think Derek Henry should be drafted this year in a half PPR league, which was the draft that we did two weeks ago,

top eight, nine through 16, 17 through 24 or round three. Where would you guys take him? Top eight, nine through 16, 17 to 24 around three for Derek Henry? One of the last two options.

Same. Well, you have to pick one. I'll say round three then because I'm fine taking him 17 to 24 if format or whatever dictates it, but typically if I'm picking there, I've already taken a running back in the first round. There's a lot of receivers

that I like in that range. So I'm probably not going to take him there. Agreed. Okay. Well, only 4.4% so far said round three. Only 23% said top eight. Picks nine through 16 is the winner right now

for when should Derrick Henry be drafted in a half PPR league? 59%. 17 to 24 had 13.5% of the vote. So really, picks 9 through 16, running away with it. That's his ADP. I think that's going to be where it probably ends up.

9 through 16. Yeah, I mean, it's 8 right now, but sure. Splitting hairs. Yeah, okay. So what do you have against Derek Henry, who was second in non-PPR and fifth in PPR last year? I mean, it's the same thing for me that I keep saying. You know, 400 total touches, including the playoffs.

I'm well aware of the data that it's typically the regular season work that catches up to you. But I'm just concerned that, you know, for a guy that does nothing in the passing game, 18 catches last year, his career best. he's told me at the pro bowl he's told us at the super bowl that he hopes to be more involved in the passing game uh i don't know if that's going to change you know with arthur smith's offense and what they uh what they like to do so um this isn't really uh darrington evans is going to take him the field. You've heard me say a lot of times that I'm taking Darrington Evans as lottery tickets,

more just in case that Henry gets hurt. And we saw last year he had to miss a game with, I believe it was calf injury or hamstring injury. So I'm just worried that wear and tear is going to catch up to a bigger running back and he may miss some time. His points per game may warrant him being drafted in the first round because when he's on the field, I think he'll be fantastic. But I'm concerned about this type of workload catching up to him at some point, and I'm just not going to take him. This is more of a personal thing because he's awesome,

and I'd rather be wrong on this because I hope he's great once again. Well, is this just a PPR thing, or is this an every format thing? It's where he goes in non-PPR is just too soon for me. I think where Heath hasn't ranked, I get it. He's ahead of, I think, Zeke for Heath because he was better than him last year. And he's got the chance to score 15-plus touchdowns and be 1,500 rushing yards.

But I just think that I'm not going to take him in round one in non-PPR, and I'm probably not going to get him. And so then in each format, like, it just drops down a round, and that's just kind of where I think he's going to go. Okay, would you guys rather have Derek Henry or Aaron Jones? Henry. Henry, yeah. This is another guy who lost an offensive lineman too.

I mean, Jack Conklin's gone. They're going to be using – what's his name? Well, I think they drafted Isaiah Wilson. I don't know that they planned to start him from day one. They had another lineman that I can't recall that will probably step into their starting lineup. But Jack Conklin's a very good tackle that's not going to be there anymore. Now, maybe for Henry, the interior of the line matters more but it's just it's not helpful to to him maintaining what was some ridiculous efficiency to be clear like down

the stretch he was over six yards per uh carry his uh touchdown rate was insane his long run rate was insane uh and that's really when he was good if you go back and look at the first half of last year, he was kind of hit or miss. He had a couple one-yard touchdown runs that saved a couple weeks. But we have these team previews that we did, and they're one of my favorite pieces of content we've done. Go to cbssports.com slash fantasy slash football. They're on that draft prep page down towards the bottom.

And we had a key quote for everyone. I just want to read you this quote from John Robinson, their GM on Darrington Evans. He said there were enough clips where you could see him stepping up and sticking his face into the core of the protection, taking on a linebacker coming downhill, his toughness as a runner. I like the fact that he'll lower his shoulder and try to run through a tackle. I think from a mindset standpoint, you see his willingness to play tough. So I think with all those things combined, we felt very comfortable with what he's going to be able to do in pass pro that whole quote was about his ability to handle pass protection. They want him to play on passing downs. They've been talking about the soft season. Um, I don't think Derek Henry's receptions are

going to go anywhere. He's never caught 20 balls in a, in a season. And I just think it's crazy to think that's going to suddenly happen now. In just case you missed it, that quote that Ben just read was about the rookie, Darrington Evans, not about Derrick Henry. Yeah. And I just want to bring this up because you mentioned he got off to kind of an okay start. His first eight games, he averaged 3.9 yards per carry.

He was fine. You know, but he was actually a top 12 running back in PPR because he got so much work and he still scored six touchdowns. So that was the bad version of Derrick Henry, I guess. And he was still ninth in non-PPR and 12th in PPR. I don't know if he was per game. He probably wasn't because I don't know

if he had a bye in there. I can tell you he did not. So, yeah, I don't know. That's interesting to me that the bad version of Derrick Henry was still, at worst, probably top 15 per game, and it was top 12 overall in full PPR, and that was with eight catches in eight games. All right, well, okay. But apparently you guys see a little bit more downside than that.

We'll talk about a few more players. We have some news items to get to. The Patriots have not guaranteed Cam Newton the starting job, according to The Athletic. You know, I don't think it's a huge surprise. And Chris Jones, Kansas City defensive tackle, says he will not play without a long-term agreement. He's a very good player.

We hope he's out on the field. You know, it's gonna be an unusual summer. It's gonna be harder to get together with your friends and your family. But just because plans might change doesn't mean summer is canceled. Summer's still out there. We just have to work a little bit

harder to make our summer moments happen. And Coors Light wants to be right there with you by making it easier to chill this summer. Starting with its new Chill Summer can featuring sunglasses that turn blue when the beer is cold and ready to drink. That's fun. And I remember we did our first Twitch a couple months ago. Ben Gretsch sitting there drinking a Coors Light. So I know you're a Coors Light guy.

And it's, you know, this is a trying summer. So you need something to chill with. Coors Light's big for you. Yeah, I mean, it wasn't just the first Twitch. I think for people that have come hang out on Twitch, it's become kind of a joke in the chat whether I've had... How many Coors Lights I've had, essentially,

because Coors Light has essentially got me through quarantine. Yeah, I mean, I'm having a blast staying in and rocking out with Coors Light. The little bit of going out I've had the chance to do is to go golfing a few times. And it's always Coors Light for me on the golf course as well. I mean, it's the perfect beer for the outdoor if you get out there or for staying in. So that's why I choose Coors Light.

That's the one I choose when I need a moment of chill. So when you want to reset this summer, reach for the beer that's made to chill. And you can have Coors Light delivered by going to get.coorslight.com and finding local delivery options near you. Yeah. Celebrate responsibly. Well, I'm glad you mentioned the website,

get.coorslight.com if you want to get it delivered. And as Ben was saying, celebrate responsibly, Coors Brewing Company, Golden, Colorado. And I want to know, what's the right amount of beer for your best golf game? When are you at your best? Three beers. Well, when I

golf the best, it's probably one beer. Just get it a little loosened up. But you've got to keep that going because golf is a four or five hour thing. So you've got to keep that going because golf is a four or five hour thing. It's three beers throughout the round. How come you don't golf, Jamie?

I do. Not very well, but I do. I did not know that. Things you learn about Jamie. Well, one thing I learned about Jamie is he's not drafting Derrick Henry and probably not going to get Aaron Jones. Some other players on his list. Leonard Fournette. Leonard Fournette was seventh in PPR last year

with 76 catches in 15 games. His 16 game pace was almost 1,800 total yards and a whopping three touchdowns. It's amazing. Yes. Now they brought in Chris Thompson, but they didn't really challenge him. Rykel Armstead's still there. That's the weird thing.

After this whole offseason, they don't really seem to want Leonard Fournette. They didn't draft anybody. And what's, you know, 29th overall on ADP, on NFC for Leonard Fournette. Whereas I feel like CBS, we hate him. He goes like 60th. In the recent draft we did with industry people,

he went 36th, but it was not a CBS person, I don't think, that took Leonard Fournette. I'll double check. But Jamie, when would you feel comfortable taking Fournette, and why are you down on him? I would probably feel comfortable mid-round four, maybe closer to round

five, but I'm just concerned that they're not going to be a very good team. I think their win total is the lowest over under from what the last time I looked with Las Vegas was four and a half wins. So I don't think you can get very many, very many, you know, games where he's just having these dominant performances. I do think he's going to come off the field much more in passing downs than we

saw last year, which is why Chris Thompson's there. And I think right ball arm set could do that as well. It just, you know, all the evidence that we've seen from the Jaguars this off season of trying to trade him declining his fifth year option. You know, the, the, the one thing I think that I go back to that may help London Fournette and it's the DeMarco Murray scenario of a few years ago, is run him into the ground and then kick him to the curb. You know, and so just, we are going to just get everything we can out of you, and then you can go try and get paid somewhere else.

And that may help him. But I'm just not taking him in the first three rounds. And I think, you know, if you tell me his ADP is 29, then I'm definitely out. Are you guys taking Cam Akers, DeAndre Swift, J.K. Dobbins over Leonard Fournette? Akers, yes. The others, no. I still have Fournette ranked ahead of all those guys, but those are rankings. Fournette is well below ADP. I'm on board with Jamie.

I'm not really drafting him, and I am potentially drafting those rookies. I mean, it is interesting. How many carries do you think he's going to get? Well, so the common theme we're finding with these three backs, and we're going to find with a couple of my backs, is the high-value touches that I love to talk about. These guys aren't going to catch a lot of passes.

Fournette got 100 targets last year, but they added Chris Thompson. And Fournette wasn't very efficient on those 100 targets. And they also drafted LaVisca Chennault, who I love and we've talked about, but can play out of the backfield, importantly, was basically a wildcat runner at Colorado. I think he rushed for seven touchdowns. Very productive player that will take up some of those short area targets as well. I just don't think that's what they want Fournette to do anymore.

So that's going to go away. And then this is not a good offense. So his touchdown regression, he should score more touchdowns. But is he going to score double-digit touchdowns in an offense that's projected to have the lowest win total in the entire league this year? Like they're not going to score a lot of points. So you better hope that he rushes a million times and that he's an efficient runner. Cause the difference between him and Derek Henry is Derek Henry shown the

ability to run for five yards to carry Leonard Fournette has not. So what are you getting? Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, if you're still getting, and I'm glad you mentioned the difference

between Fournette and Henry because they do seem like similar profiles a lot of carries maybe not a lot of catches but keep in mind Chris Thompson gets hurt every year he's played 10 or 11 games three straights you know what that's not a hundred kind of but he missed

time the year before because of suspension some of that was suspension he's actually been kind of healthier than i anticipated he's not the same injury risk that thompson has been but he does miss time due to injury oh you mean his team had to suspend him during the season for not showing up for a meeting and that's something that we shouldn't think is a good thing no look i look, I get it. I think 29th overall is crazy for him. But I think fourth round is pretty appealing. Fourth round's interesting. Fifth round is appealing for Fournette.

I don't know where he's going to go. I was surprised his ADP was 29th. I'll go back to the question. Yes, he's probably a better pick than Cam Akers just with the uncertainty of what Akers' role is going to be. But I think if Akers hits as the starter for the Rams and the touch leader for the Rams, he probably has a higher

ceiling than Fournette right now. Okay. Yeah, so let's talk about some of Ben's running backs here. Two wide receivers from Jamie that will get to a tight end from Ben. And a wide receiver that's going later, Emmanuel Sanders, but Chris Carson.

What's up with that, man? Listen, you got to understand, Ben, the whole Rashad Penny thing, right? They weren't benching Chris Carson because he wasn't playing well. They were limiting his touches because he was fumbling, but he's always been good.

I mean, in the last two years, this guy's been really good. He's been a top 12 running back. He's been a three, basically like since week three of 2018, look at like for a full season, he's basically a 300 carry guy. He could lead the league in carries based on what we've seen, assuming they don't start throwing the ball a lot more. So I'm kind of curious why you don't like Chris Carson.

I get it with some of the other guys, but this guy's been really good and really productive. Yeah, I mean, I think we've harped on a lot of guys. So I was kind of trying to stretch that a little bit. I don't disagree. I think Carson's a tricky one. I just think he's really getting propped up by just a lack of established workhorses. And I'm not sure that he is that or should be considered that. And then there's the other side where yes, is receiving Rose last year and it was solid at 37 catches and he was efficient as a receiving bag. And I would actually expect that he's probably their lead option on,

on passing downs, unless it's Travis Homer. I mean, it's probably not going to be Carlos Hyde. I don't think that's DJ Dallas's skillset. And we know Penny's probably not going to be ready for the start of the year. So there's some question as to, you know, they got a lot of backs. Who's even going to be active on game days? But Carson might be the one that has the best chance to play on passing downs as well. But this isn't a team that's going to throw a lot to their backs.

Russell Wilson's not a quarterback that checks down a lot. He scrambles. He likes to throw the ball down the field when he scrambles. He makes plays vertically. They have great receivers. They added a tight end. So I think they have some underneath options. They might still add another receiver. They've been talking to Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon. So I don't know that he's going to have a big receiving role. So then you go, okay, well, what is his value? Well, his value is a really heavy rush total. Like you said, he had almost 300 carries in 15 games last year. Although that only equated to three games of 20 plus PPR points, which is not what I look for in a back. He wasn't bad. He was consistent. He frequently hit 10 points.

But you're talking about having to take this guy in the third round. And then there's the concern. Okay. Well, he has an injury history as well. And they brought in a guy who ran for a thousand yards on a different team last year and Carlos Hyde. So the rush shot, penny thing that you were just talking about that, that factors in, is it that crazy that all of a sudden Chris Carson isn't playing 80% snapshares? Cause that's kind of what it took last year for him to see this many carries. They had no one else. They went and drafted another running back. They went and brought in Carlos Hyde. They got a little more out of Travis Homer late last year,

and maybe they'll be willing to use him. This guy was playing 85% plus of the snaps several times throughout the year. That's great. I just don't think that trend from 2019 is what carries over to 2020. I think you might see this guy in the 70% snap sharing range, and then all of a sudden he looks like a trap back. He looks like somebody that doesn't really have much better than 15 point upside.

I go back and forth on him so much just because of Penny's injury. Like I don't want to fall for Carlos Hyde going there and saying, Oh, that's going to ruin Chris Carson. Because even though Hyde had a thousand yards, it's almost the exact same thing you're saying. Like they, the Texas needed Hyde by default, the Seahawks may need Carson to do these things by default because he could be better at passing downs or better on passing downs or passing situations than Carlos Hyde and probably DJ Dallas.

But we don't know what the Seahawks are going to think in regards to that. But the other thing that I keep going back to with Carson is even though we keep hearing Penny pop list, that does not mean Penny out for season. And so while you might get six weeks of a great head start for Chris Carson, if in fact, they're just using Hyde and spot duty, and he's getting all this work. If Penny comes back, let's say by week eight, and he is what he was before he left, which is a big stretch, because apparently this knee injury was worse than they initially let on. But if he's right, let's say by fantasy playoff time or a little bit before that, Carson may

have been great. He may have been just kind of middling his way through and getting you some good games or some, you know, some poor production along the way. And and then all of a sudden, Penny ruins him at some point in the season, along with Hyde taking him off the field in certain situations. So this could be a very crowded backfield. But at the same time, if it's just Carson and hide and maybe a little bit of Travis Homer sprinkled in, I think Carson's going to be okay, but I'm generally with, with Ben, I haven't drafted

a lot of Chris Carson. I don't see myself drafting a lot of Chris Carson. He is somebody that I would put in this category of players. I avoid, I know, however, see, I do, however, see why some people are gravitating toward him. I think that, uh that there are some players going ahead of him in NFC ADP that don't typically go ahead of him in our drafts. Leonard Fournette, Jonathan Taylor, well, you know, Ben, Le'Veon Bell, James Conner, and David Johnson. To see Le'Veon, yeah, especially to see James Conner and David Johnson going ahead of Chris Carson was surprising to me.

Now, granted, they're back-to-back-to-back. And then the next back off the board is Raheem Mostert. So he's the guy that's on Ben's avoid list. Le'Veon Bell, Raheem Mostert, and Chris Carson were the three running backs you gave me. And if we take a look at their ADPs... Well, before you go there, you probably shouldn't have had me and Ben on this show together

because we have a very similar mindset on some of these backs. Just to give you the contrarian side of this, Heath has Carson ranked 12th in PPR. Dave really likes him too. Dave has him at 14. I was just going on the high end. Heath has him at 12.

I have him at 18. I don't know where you have him, Ben. He's still a top 20 running back for me. In PPR, especially I would take a chance on Connor Gordon and Gurley over Carson, even at, you know, age or, you know, certain situations, you know, injury risk with, with Connor and Gurley, just because I think there's more upside with those three guys than I do think there is a Carson PPR. And I have Carson at 21 for backs, but that's also, and I've talked about this a few times,

an area of the draft where I think drafters should be shifting more towards receivers than they are. Right. Yeah, I don't want to fall into that trap every episode, but these conversations are like useless for me because I'm just wide receiver, wide receiver. I love this range of wide receivers. They're not useless for me.

I'm just kidding. But it's just they don't always apply. and we've talked about this for people who weren't listening all you know last year we talked about this running back dead zone this is an area that historically has a very low hit rate now there was a couple good players out of this area last year one of them was derrick henry um but even with derrick henry being so historically efficient down the stretch he was i believe, RB5 in PPR leagues. Not far off. And I think in points per game, maybe RB2 or RB3.

But the point is, like, there's a reason some of these guys, like whether it's they don't have the receiving role or they don't have a clear claim to an every down role, which I think is kind of the concern with Carson, or their team might shift more to passing, which is something we didn't talk about with Carson or their team might shift more to passing, which is something we didn't talk about with Carson, but Russell Wilson has been wanting to pass more.

Does Carson have double digit touchdown upside? I don't know. I mean, Russell Wilson's the guy they're going to give the ball to in the red zone. They're not going to hand it to the guy with the fumbling problems, at least as far as I'm concerned. They did last year. These guys have issues. And then we draft them because they're,

you know, they look like the lead backs and their offenses, and they look good in projections. But there's a reason they're not top 15 backs. And once you get outside the top 15, you get to this area that has a historically really low hit rate. Yeah. And I think the reason why I do like these discussions, why we have to talk about these running backs, well, obviously, they're top 40 picks.

So you got to talk about them. But also, sure, my intention is probably to go with two running backs with my first two picks in most drafts, but Hey, it could change easily. I don't see scenario. I'm going wide receiver, wide receiver, but definitely one running back in my first two. Like I could definitely get, I would love to have Kelsey. I would love to have kiddo. I would love to have one of those top five wide receivers. I mean, it could change. And when it does, okay, now do you change your strategy and try to grab one of these round three

or round four running backs? Or do you just wait and wait and see what else is there and kind of go with a one RB strategy? And, you know, we'll let the listeners decide which guys do you like. Everybody's gonna have their own personal opinion. So let's talk about two more, Le'Veon Bell and Raheem Mostert.

Now their ADPs are fairly similar on NFC. Le'Veon Bell, 36. Raheem Mostert. Now their ADPs are fairly similar on NFC. Le'Veon Bell, 36. Raheem Mostert, 46. This is a reflection of how early running backs are going because we haven't done one draft this year where he's gone close to 46. I really don't think so. Maybe a non-PPR draft once.

That seems late for Bell, though. 36th? Yeah. Well, he went 44th in the draft we just did, Le'Veon Bell. Mostert went 61st. So they went way behind

their ADPs. But, you know, Mostert's the 23rd running back off the board. Where do you guys have him ranked? He's higher in non-PPR for me than PPR, obviously, just based on his,

you know, profile and what he showed us last year. But he's outside the top 24 for me. You know, I would, just in PPR, like I would take Kareem Hunt over Mostert. And, you know, he's the backup. I have that. Okay, so.

And I have Mostert at RB30, so yeah. What's interesting, though, that Mostert and Bell are very different in that Bell actually does catch a lot of passes. He had 66 catches last year. Mostert had 14. So, Ben, these are two guys you gave. Yeah. Two very different profiles.

You're right. I mean, Bell is the kind of back that you would think, with everything I said, that I might like. But the issues that i see with bell are one um touchdown upside i just don't think it's there in this offense uh the receiving should be there but then there's this um element that also pulls in most third and most third is the more traditional trap back he's not going to catch enough passes most of his production last year was efficiency and especially for him we don't even know if he's going to be the starter all year. They use three different lead backs at different times

last season. We've talked on this show how he had that monster NFC championship and then didn't even start the Super Bowl, didn't even touch the ball until late into the Super Bowl. So I think Tevin Coleman is going to be very involved and people are just expecting way too much out of a back who's not even the lead back and isn't going to catch passes in terms of most of it. But the issue with both of these guys for me is age. And I've said this before, you don't pay for past production at running back. And when I just talked about the very historically low hit rate in that running back dead zone in those rounds, if I do a build, like you said, where I take a couple more receivers early, and I'm looking for a running back in that range, the reason I'm always going young is the ones that do hit in that range are typically always young players. Historically,

I just did this big research last year. It's guys that are breaking out for the first time. That doesn't mean that they're great picks in every situation, but almost without exception, the guys, and again, Derek Henry last year was probably the biggest exception, but the guys that are going in that RB 15 to to rb30 range before you get to backups who can sometimes break out be like you know the james connor situation where levy on belt holds out and then all of a sudden he's a he's a workhorse but before you get into that type of player when you're in these like low end starter range it's the young guys that they're really only held down because we haven't seen it yet. But with Mostert, he's kind of like young for his age because he doesn't have that much

wear and tear. He hasn't, he's not Le'Veon Bell, right? He's not Melvin Gordon. He doesn't have all that tread on his tires. Does that factor in? Does that change the equation at all? He's still more expensive because of past production. He's more expensive because of what he showed us late last season and how

exciting that looked and especially the NFC championship game. And everyone's kind of forgetting that we went into last season thinking Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida were going to be the starters. So what should that lesson be? Well, is it that Moser's the better running back? Maybe it is, but maybe it's also that we shouldn't assume that the guy that we think is the lead running back in the,

in the Cal Shanahan offense to start this season is going to be a lead running back for 16 weeks. There's, there's a wild card with that too. It's, it's that McKinnon. And a guy that they paid to be their guy suffered the injury before his first, you know, started for the first week of the season. They kept on the roster last year. He got hurt. They kept on the roster again. And while they traded Matt Brita for, you know, what they consider to be value and, and, and allowing him maybe to get a better opportunity. I think Jeff Wilson's going to get some touches too. And so, you know, I, I'll go back to the same thing. I've said this time, time, time again, since the combine that, you know, what Kyle Shanahan said was, I used to think for running backs was, uh, I forget the phrase that he used. I used to think four running backs was a bonus and now it's a necessity.

But he didn't he didn't use four running backs at a time. Ben's brought this up. I mean, Jeff Wilson was a special teamer. He's used three guys.

He's used three. In terms of giving a hundred carries to three different guys. And so if you're giving you know, Mostert, who we didn't see

have this big workload except for that NFC Championship game when Coleman went down, who doesn't do much in the passing game. Um, you know, I'm hopeful Trent Williams is going to replace Joe Staley at a high level, but that's the change in the offensive line. That could be significant. Uh, even though Williams has a great profile, but he didn't play last year. So, uh, I think, you know, most are to me is, is, is a good third back and non-PPL. Like I took him as my third back in the fishbowl. I think, you know, Mostert to me is a good third back in non-PPR. Like, I took him as my third back in the fishbowl.

I think I took him in round nine, you know, just given how it unfolded. Super flex. Yeah, super flex. Super flex. Well, all right. Well, when would you? Okay, so let me tell you where he went. He went 61st, I said, in this draft.

I think you are. So hold on. Let me just find him. I think that's fine. No, I think he went later than that. I think he went 69th, was it? Anything around six or later is fine. Yeah, he went right before Keyshawn Vaughn, James White.

This was half PPR. Like that, you're cool with that? As the third running back, yes. I have him ranked as the third running back. I have no problem with him as the third running back. I do think, again, you're banking on offense here as much as anything. So while Ben is 100% right, his age, the fact that he hasn't had an opportunity to get significant touches with any other team before,

whether it was him getting hurt or a team not falling in love with him, what he showed us last year, the fact that they're talking about paying him, and I think I said this before. I know I butchered the way I said it the last time, but Kyle Shanahan, his father, has done this with running backs time and time again, taking guys off the scrap heap. And for a short period of time,

whether it's a year or year plus or half a season, has gotten very good production from guys like Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson and players that, you know, were out of the NFL and come back and do significant things. So they're not afraid to turn over that position, but it's just, I think what the investment is. You're looking at Raheem Oster and saying he is a starting fantasy running

back for 10 plus weeks. You're making a mistake. If you think you can get spot starts out of him when the matchup is right. And if this gets off to a strong start for this offense, again, running the ball like they did a year ago, then you're going to be thrilled where you got him. But I just think that Coleman will get work. McKinnon will get work. Wilson will get some touches.

We'll see how this all unfolds. Third running back, great. Top 24, not for me. Let me ask you a question philosophically. Something that is hard. It's hard. You know, how do you, when you evaluate these running backs, do you try to factor in how good you think they are

at playing football, which we don't necessarily know. But when I look at Aaron Jones, I think he's great. When I look at Raheem Mostert, I don't see any evidence that he isn't really good and better than Tevin Coleman. When I look at Le'Veon Bell,

I don't, I'm concerned that he's not that good anymore. Chris Carson though, I think is pretty good, but it seems like since we're not talent evaluators, the best thing that we can do, the most responsible thing we can do is really look at touches, high value touches, uh, those types of things, opportunity, and predict stats that way. You know what I mean? The case I want to make for a guy like Aaron Jones is, I just think he's awesome and deserves more work, but the case against him is so compelling.

He didn't get that work last year when they drafted A.J. Dillon. You understand what I'm trying to say here? It's balancing how good you think the guy is versus what the opportunity is going to be. The problem is I completely agree with what you're saying, and I struggle with that with a guy like Aaron Jones. Even with what you were saying where I think Aaron Jones is good, but the evidence against him is so compelling.

I want Aaron Jones to get more work, and I think he's very talented, and I do consider this stuff. But the thing that I always come back to is the running back position in fantasy football. It's an opportunity driven position, period, more so than any other position. It is wholly dependent on the opportunity that the player is getting within the offense, typically, only one or maybe two running backs are even fantasy, you know, viable in an offense. Some, some offenses, I guess there's a third, but you have to know where the touches in that offense are going, who's getting them, what big, how big of a share they are. And then as we've been talking about lately, what types

of touches are they getting their receptions? Are they getting the goal line looks Raheem Mostert? I can't project for anything close to the right amount of work, even though I do think he's good. Although I would say if he was really, really good, he probably would have gotten more than, you know, 40 career touches before he was 27. Aaron Jones, I think is great. But yeah, I do the same thing, man. I do the same thing with Jonathan Taylor. We know that.

Like, I think Jonathan Taylor is going to be such a good NFL player that they won't be able to keep him off the field by November. And he will be their lead back. He will be their 20 touch back. That's what I believe, especially behind the offensive line, he's going to be running behind. By November, Adam would have cut him four weeks before that. Hopefully not.

All right, this has been basically a running back show, so let's talk about some wide receivers. Well, I want to say just real quick about Le'Veon Bell. If you're buying it, like Heath is still all in on Le'Veon Bell, which I don't get. I think Adam Gase is going to screw with Le'Veon Bell so much this year that Frank Gore is going to become such an'Veon Bell so much this year that Frank Gore is going to become such an annoyance and LaMichael Piran will have some

touches. Like this has got Adam Gase messing this up again, maybe rightly so, if in fact, Bell, to your point, Adam, isn't the same guy. And he never wanted him to begin with. But I just think like, you know, Bell was better. I think that we give him credit for last year, given the circumstances around him with, you know, Darnold missing time and the offensive line, just being in a complete disaster. I like the fact that they rebuilt this offensive line. I think it's going to be much,

much better and the weapons around him will be better. The offense as a whole, because Herndon back and Mims and Perryman, you know, I just think there's better talent there, but I just feel like this has got Adam Gase not liking star-type players. He's shown that time and again from Ajayi with Miami, especially this position, Drake with the Dolphins. And I think Le'Veon Bell has got not significant enough competition because they're good, because Gore's at the end of his career,

and Peter Ryan still has to prove himself. But I just think you're going to see Bell does something, he tipped those too much, and Gates gets upset, and there's Frank Gore for 10 carries and still finding a way to be relevant for a team in 2020. So if we look at wide receivers here, Marty Cooper and Odell Beckham are on the list that Jamie sent me his five players to avoid. Jamie had Henry, Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette,

Amari Cooper and Odell Beckham. Ben had Carson, Emmanuel Sanders, who we'll get to, Le'Veon Bell, Raheem Mostert, and we'll also get to Austin Hooper. But I think when you look at these two guys, Cooper and Beckham, their ADP on NFC is in the third round. They're going in the fourth round in our drafts. In fact, the most recent draft, 42nd for Beckham, 45th for Amari Cooper. Let me start with this basic question. Is that good enough value middle of the fourth round for Beckham and Cooper? I think it's fine. I think these guys are in a mix of wide receivers that include based on ADP, or at least what I expect ADP to be the two Rams guys in, in woods and cup Alan Robinson,

you know, for whatever reason, Juju's fall into the fourth round. I don't get that based on ADP. So yeah, there's just a lot of guys, you know, and, and it could start with a group of, you know, I think Ridley's going to be in this range. I think you'll see maybe Galladay in this range. Cortland Sutton, I think, is in this range. He's another guy that I'm not taking either. I just think that for these two receivers in particular, they're going to be on crowded offenses. I feel more confident in Cooper than I do in Beckham because of who the quarterback is for Cooper and what the

offense is going to look like for Dallas. Cause I think we're gonna see a ton of running for Cleveland. I think Hooper is going to be a problem in the red zone for Beckham Landry. If he's healthy, he's going to be a problem. As we saw last year for Beckham Mayfield and Beckham, we're not on the same page last year. So I'm just out on these two guys. If, if, if, you know,

there's a run on receivers and these two guys fall because everybody in the draft feels like I do, then I'll take them in that round four range, which I think is okay value. I would prefer them maybe a little bit toward the end of round four. I'm concerned that Lamb is going to hurt Cooper enough that it's a problem and Gallup is not going to go away, who was just as good as him in some cases last year,

overall, over the course of the season. And for Beckham, like I said, I just don't know if he's going to be that much better than what we saw last year. I think he'll have better points per game, but he gutted out an injury. Typically, he misses time with injuries, and that's a concern.

I should say, I'm sorry. I didn't mean to disrespect Ben. A.J. brown will be in that range i know i'm waiting for you to say are you taking in ppr are you taking a.j brown over cooper and beckham i am because i would rather swing for the fences and i think a.j brown's got a higher ceiling okay i'm not gonna ask ben i think i know the answer well i actually have beckham one spot behind him beckham's the one guy that of these two that I've started to wonder if I'm not getting enough because I'm drafting so many you know so many shares of AJ Brown and Calvin Ridley and I I just think Odo Beckham is Odo Beckham right and I think so much

of the of the Browns problems were related to Freddie Kitchens last year and he was hurt and he was changing teams and we know that receivers don't typically you know change teams well but you look at Allen Robinson, how he had such a big second season with the Bears after kind of an injury played a little bit, the first season on a new team. I think he's the one guy that I'm like, am I missing something here with Odo Beckham?

But I completely agree with Amari Cooper. He's one that I would much rather play the Dallas passing game through Gallup or CeeDee Lamb. I don't think the three of them should be this separated. And then Emmanuel Sanders, and we just had the show where we talked about our favorite players after round

10. He's just before that. He's basically at the end of round 10. Emmanuel Sanders, or maybe the end of round 9, but round nine, round 10, he's the 45th wide receiver off the board. And he was drafted in round nine in our most recent CBS draft.

So you're not, you'd rather spend that pick on Mike Williams or Justin Jefferson, or like one of the rookies, Sterling Shepard, those guys. I literally don't think Emmanuel Sanders should be drafted. I mean, I love Emmanuel Sanders. I don don't think Emmanuel Sanders should be drafted. I mean, I love Emmanuel

Sanders. I don't really believe that based on what you just said. Okay, so everyone's pretending like this guy didn't just tear his eight Achilles a year ago. And there was a reason we were all really concerned about him coming back last year. And you go look at his game long last year. He started hot, had three games over 85 yards in his first four games. And then after he got traded to San Francisco, he had 200-yard games. He had two more decent games. Outside of those five games, and this includes the playoffs last year, every other game was 61 yards or lower.

All but two more, which were 61 and 60 yards, were 41 yards or lower. What I'm trying to say is he had an insane amount of games where he was almost nonexistent. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, 8, 9, 10 regular season games and all three postseason games. He's not on San Francisco anymore. So he goes to New Orleans, this player who was recovering from an Achilles and is 33 years old and already showed signs, especially with San Francisco, that maybe he's more just a bit player at this point and nobody on New Orleans outside of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara has got had more than like 70 targets maybe it's 75 or something for several seasons and on top of that they just brought in Jared Cook last year and Jared Cook

was very effective and is going to have plenty of you know plenty of targets himself I just did their projection today I projected Sanders for right around 70 targets. And that doesn't put him anywhere near where he should be drafted in the eighth to 10th round. I gave him a really high touchdown rate because he's playing with Drew Brees. Still at 70 targets only gives him about four and a half receiving touchdowns, but maybe he scores six or seven. I don't know. That still doesn't put him anywhere where he should be drafted in the eighth to 10th round range. And here's the kicker. After I gave him all those rates, I didn't have enough targets to allocate to everyone else. I had to bring down Michael Thomas's target share.

I already have Thomas dropping over 20 targets from last year in this projection. Traquan Smith is still very good, by the way. He's the guy that's going to shift over. Just going to say that the one thing that they are lacking and what's been so great for this offense is a downfield threat to threaten other teams. Ted Ginn was that for two or three seasons.

Traquan Smith was that for part of last year. They need that. But that's going to be Smith, right? Do you think that's going to be Sanders? Oh, no way. Oh, yeah. Totally Smith. That's the guy that I think.

He's got to do a little more before we anoint him anything. Okay, well, let's just look at what he's done for the record. 9.7 yards per target year, won 9.4 last year, five touchdowns in both seasons. Yeah, Trey Kwan Smith. No, this is more NFL than fantasy. Yeah. This is opening up what, what happens to the saints. So you have to be scared of the big play because they'll hit one or two every game,

at least attempting it. Michael Thomas does not run down the field. You know, he runs the scene. Jerry Cook runs the scene. Alvin Kamara runs wheel routes, you know, that that's what they they do you know and so Sanders is coming in to sort of be he he's he's a he's a you know middle type of route runner you know he's not a burner anymore yeah and so yeah you know and he's a clutch player he'll make some like Jamie said he'll make some plays for them in in NFL games that matter for them to win games he'll catch some big third downs and it will be great but he will be just like his game log last year. He will be so inconsistent for fantasy that he should not be on fantasy teams. I believe that he should not be drafted.

He is a four player and not a ceiling player. So you'll get five for 60, four for 70. You know, I mean, he'll have some, some okay stat lines. I don't even know if he'll get that. Okay. But he'll have some two stat lines. I don't even know if he'll get that a lot of times. But he'll have some two for 30s, too. That's always been my issue with Emmanuel Sanders.

That's always been my issue with Deshaun Jackson. The difference is those guys used to go in the sixth round. Now they're going, you know, after the 100s. Well, the other difference is Deshaun Jackson still, even at this point in his career, can give you a 5-1, 25-2. And I don't know that Emmanuel Sanders in the Saints offense is going to do that. He did it a couple times last year. Just look at 2018. Okay, but if you want to make the case for Emmanuel Sanders,

2018, he basically, I think he missed four games that year, and I think Wes Welker missed four games too, because I remember, or Wes Welker, Julian Edelman. They had almost the same exact season. He was a top 15 player per game, 2018, Emmanuel Sanders. That was pre-Achilles, though. Then he tore his Achilles, exactly. He was a top 15 player per game, 2018, Emmanuel Sanders. That was pre-Achilles, though. Then he tore his Achilles, exactly.

He came back. He started out all right with Denver. He got traded midseason to a team that didn't throw the ball. So I think a lot of players would have struggled in that situation. I'm just playing devil's advocate and making the case. Now he goes to New Orleans. I'm not drafting. I have no interest.

I think we should probably talk about, though, that New Orleans might be one of the best offenses in football. They've got... Emmanuel Sanders and Taysom Hill have the potential to be fantasy killers. They could really be bad for

everyone. They could be bad for Michael Thomas. They could take targets away from the guys that you actually want to draft. I hope that doesn't happen. But I just don't like him there for Michael Thomas' sake, for Jared Cook in particular.

I just, I don't know. I don't want to see that happen. I want to see those targets be a little bit more concentrated. Yeah, that's why I don't like Cook either. They might be. What do you mean? They still might be. I hope so. I think that's one thing that

NFL personnel people do this to. You fall in love with names. Like Emmanuel Sanders' resume is great. He's a great locker room guy. He's a great guy. And I don't even think emmanuel i don't think emmanuel sanders is expecting to come over there and the one thing i will say they gave 10 million guaranteed like they paid him handsomely to come in and be another weapon but i don't even think his expectation is that he's going to be 100 target guy i mean go look at their targets last year alva camara missed two games and played with a high ankle sprain for many others. Jared Cook was third on the team when targets was 65. Then Ted Ginn with 56. Then Latavius Murray with 43. Like really

quickly, you're getting down into the sub 50 target range because of how many Thomas and Kamara count for. The year before, their third highest targeted player was Ben Watson with 46. They literally only had two guys with more than 50 targets the year before. No one else on that team even had 50 targets. And you go the year before that was Alvin Kamara's rookie season. And Kamara had a hundred targets as a rookie. Both Mark Ingram and Ted Ginn were at 71 and 70. And then the guy after that, Brandon Coleman had 37.

So yeah, I mean, maybe Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook both hit 70 this year. That's about where I'm projecting them. It still makes them bad, bad picks at their ADPs to project them for 70 each. And that is, you know, going, you have to go back to Camara's rookie season. I think Thomas will get more targets than he got back then in 2017. I think Camara will get more targets than he got back then in 2017. I think it's going to continue to be this concentrated of an offense. It has been for three years. Well, for Jared Cook, though, all he has to do is score touchdowns. You know, like he's going 116th overall.

He's the 11th tight end off the board. Mike Kosicki goes right after that. I know you take a sickie over him. The player that goes right after Kosicki is Austin Hooper. He's the 13th tight end off the board. And he's the last guy we'll talk about today. We've gone a little long today. So I think both of you guys, right?

Am I right? Both of you guys don't want to draft Austin Hooper? I'll take him as the 13th tight end. I won't take him as a top 10 guy, which is what I was seeing early on. Okay. Okay. I have him ranked 13th.

Okay, perfect. Well, he was, before he got hurt last year, Austin Hooper was the number one tight end. That was nine games. He was on pace for 1,081 yards and 11 touchdowns. He's a very high catch rate guy. So if you're worried about targets, I mean, he's a catch 75% or more of his targets. Basically

he doesn't have a high yards per catch, but he catches a lot of the balls thrown his way. So keep that in mind with Hooper and per game, he was top four. The year before that, he was a top six tight end. Yeah. And he's never had a target share higher than 17%.

So I know the argument against Hooper is like, well, he's just not going to get that many targets. But maybe he doesn't need them. So tell me why you're still a little hesitant to draft him, though. Well, part of the target share comment, he had his best seasons when Atlanta was leading the league in past attempts. So share is a little bit confusing here. Because if we then look at how much the Browns will throw,

it won't be nearly as high in terms of raw targets at the same share because they'll throw a lot less. They're going to be a run-heavy offense. But I just think, yeah, he's got a lot of competition. It's a completely different scenario. He didn't have any competition in Atlanta, especially after Mohamed Sanu was gone. But pretty much in the underneath range of the field,

he was that guy. And they had these great downfield weapons. And they'll have those in Cleveland too. They had Freeman. And he played most of his healthy games with Mohamed Sanu and Devante Freeman was catching a lot of passes, right? In fact, I've made this comparison before.

I actually think the Falcons- Yeah, but none of those guys is Jarvis Landry. Like we talk all the time how Jarvis Landry is one of the most underrated players in the league. He beats his ADP every year and he's a target hog and he's always been one. And I think Kareem Hunt's going to be more of a target hog than Devante Freeman was.

And they're going to have a better second tight end and David and a joke who then Atlanta ever had. I don't disagree with you that maybe I overstated that with the Atlanta situation, but there's a lot more competition still, even if you acknowledge that. Oh yeah. Yeah.

I guess the plus would be, let me see if I have this, that 20. Okay. Baker Mayfield's thrown 49 touchdown passes in two seasons. 17 of them have gone to tight ends. He's going to be a touchdown guy. I think he's definitely going to be a touchdown guy.

Dave's talked about that a lot as well. I think he could still be seven, eight touchdowns. Wouldn't shock me at all if that's the case. But I think his receptions are going to come down. I think his yards are going to come down. I think he battled an injury last year. They kept him off the field for a few games. Ben said it, though.

Najoku is a better second tight end than he's ever played with. He's going to be on the field, I think, enough. It's very hard for me if you're going to buy back into Beckham that you're going to buy into Austin Hooper as well and then not have Baker Mayfield as a potential top 12 guy. It just doesn't make sense to me because Landry's not going away. Now, if Landry is out with this hip injury, and he could be a pop list candidate, we don't know.

If that happens, and then it's Beckham and Hooper as potential target leaders early in the season, then Hooper's going to really be great as the 13th tight end off the board because then he's still going to be part of, even if the target share is, even if the passing numbers are different because of the offense is different, the target share could be there for him and Baker could still find a way to be productive with him in the red zone.

So I don't mind Hooper, like in the, in the fishbowl draft, he was my second tight. And I was thrilled with that, you know, to get him as the second guy behind Evan Ingram. But I don't want to have him as my first tight end in that,

even in that type of format, you know, so I get why Ben is taking Gusecki over him. I could see why people are, you know, taking some of these, you know, guys like Blake Jarwin and,

and, and Noah Fant for sure. Hawkinson for sure. You know, I could see why those guys are you taking Fant and Hawkinson over. I am not, like I said, I still think Hooper is a top 12 tight end.

He's at the tail end of that for me, but it's more, I'm hoping for touchdowns as opposed to I'm counting on the other things to be there for him. I just don't see it that way. It was a very surprising move for the Browns to pay him as much as they did. Given the fact that they had Najoko, I think they're giving up on Najoko a little too soon as a guy who could be their, their lead tight end. But you, it's hard to say that Baker is going to throw

to the tight ends in the red zone and not say Najoka is going to have a role in that as well. It's, you know, Najoka had a lost season. Only played four games. Only had 10 targets. Did catch a touchdown. Yeah. Okay.

Well, that's today's show. We got one more top five episode for you coming up this week. Top five. I think it's the top five players one more top five episode for you coming up this week. Top five. I think it's the top five players we are afraid to be wrong about. Something like that. Yeah, you got it. All right, cool. Plus, top five patriotic movies.

And I just really don't think Independence Day is a patriotic movie. It has really nothing to do with America. I literally don't know another one. Then you don't know any. You've never seen The Patriot? Born on the 4th of July. I've never seen it, but I've heard of it.

I've never seen that one either. Apparently very good. Right, Jamie? Oh, patriotic movies. Yeah, it's just war movies. Yeah, I think war. Yeah, pretty much. But some of them are more patriotic than others.

Like Platoon's not patriotic. Never saw that one either. That's a good one. Michael Keaton. David Private ryan's gonna be on my list that's good david prime ryan's are doing what a movie probably the best movie i've ever seen bench tracker social network it's a great movie i have seen that and it's great adventureland's a great patriotic movie zombie land adventureland no adventureland is more patriotic movie. Zombieland. Zombieland. No, Adventureland is more patriotic. Adventureland is like American summer.

Zombieland 2. Zombieland 2. Spoiler alert. They spent some time in the White House. Really? Mm-hmm. Oh, I never saw it.

I would like to see it. Avengers. Great patriotic movie. Captain America. Anything Captain America. Probably. The Sandlot. The Sandlot is literally

America. Oh, that's a great one. Good call, Shrek-y B. Good call. So, like is literally America. That's a great one. Good call, Shruggy B. Good call. Like Die Hard, anytime there's any Christmas reference, it's a Christmas movie. Sandlot does a big scene with Fourth of July, right?

Yeah. Oh, yeah. I think Ray Charles singing America is Beautiful. Field of Dreams is the single most overrated movie that's ever. No, here we go. What?

Oh, I can't wait till Friday. I'm talking about myself. It's so bad. Nothing happens. You wait the whole movie for them to play the game and then they roll the credits. We're out of here, everybody.

For Jamie and Ben and Draggy B, I'm Adam Azer. We will talk to you on Friday with two top fives, your emails, your Apple podcast questions. Talk to you then.