Fantasy Football Today - Top 5 Players We're Worried About Being Wrong About (07/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 2, 2021

Are we going to regret passing on Justin Herbert? Are we going to regret drafting Alvin Kamara with a Top 5 pick? Find out who we're worried about being wrong about! First, find out who the listeners don't want to be wrong about (2:15) with Kyle Pitts atop the list ... Dave feels he might be too high on Aaron Rodgers (8:55) while Heath realizes what's at stake if Jonathan Taylor gets more passing game work than expected (12:50). Also, find out why Heath thinks he could be too low on a couple of young Broncos (14:30) ... Should you feel confident selecting Alvin Kamara with a Top 5 pick (20:30)? What about James Robinson 60th overall (26:40)? And we finish the show with Heath's concerns about being too high on Tyler Lockett (35:40) and Juju Smith-Schuster (39:40) while Dave feels like he might be underrating Logan Thomas (44:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. How many times can we say the word about today? Let's find out about that as we talk about the players we are most worried about being wrong about. Well said stuff. What do you think about that, Heath? What do you think about this topic?

Wow. Yeah. There are players I'm worried about being wrong about. Yeah. I'm very worried about that number of players. This is a touchy subject.

I mean, I get a little nervous about some of these guys. You know? I ask the listeners who they're worried about being wrong about. Dave? I can't really talk right now i've my nose is clogged i'm having a bout of the sniffles no no good adam laughed i like it you do all right that was the bottom of the barrel for dad jokes

to me this topic is more about uh the players who we're not sure, who we're not confident in. Maybe we need to come to some conclusions on them. But you're not confident, but they have a lot of upside, right? Well, probably, yes. Because you're not going to be so worried about being wrong about a player who doesn't have a ton of upside, like Jarvis Landry or something. I guess he has upside when Beckham gets hurt.

Well, it depends on which direction you're worried about being wrong about them. That's true. Some people might be worried about, you know, I'm too high on this guy. Not I'm avoiding this guy. So I did tweet to the listeners. Today we are discussing the players we are most worried about being wrong about. Who would be on your list? Who are you worried about being wrong about. Who would be on your list? Who are you worried about being wrong about?

I tried to figure out the winner. I think I have a winner who got the most votes. Do you want to guess who it is? And I would put this person on my list too. So we have to guess one person out of everybody in the NFL. That the listeners mention the most. Kyle Pitts. Yeah. Ding, ding, ding, ding.

Yep. And that makes sense, right? I mean, you got to be a little worried that you're wrong about him, especially you, Heath, because you're so low on him. Well, that's the question. Are you more worried about Kyle Pitts

if you're not drafting any of him or if you're taking him in the third round? I would be more worried if I had a bunch of Kyle Pitts if you're not drafting any of him or if you're taking him in the third round. Like, I would be more worried if I had a bunch of Kyle Pitts than I'd take him in the third and fourth round. I just know that the way things are happening right now, none of us are probably going to have any Kyle Pitts on our team, and I'm worried about that. He's extremely popular.

Yeah. He is becoming extremely popular. That's the great thing about Dynasty. It's the great thing about dynasty it's the great thing about salary cap drafts you can still get him i i have them on teams already um i'm just not going to have them on any redraft games and i'm i'm pretty much okay with it okay uh justin herbert was another name i saw a lot of and that's one that i get every every argument against him, the rushing touchdowns, the plays they ran, all these things.

And I think the statistical regression is such a great reason to wait on Justin Herbert and probably not end up with him. But then you say, he probably had the best rookie quarterback season ever. That's got to count for something. I don't want to be wrong about him because as of right now,

I can't see myself getting any Justin Herbert. And that's probably something that I need to remedy. Take him to a couple leagues. As long as you get him at a fair value. You can't take him as long as guys like Dak, Lamar, Kyler are on the board. No, who's doing that? That's when it's Herbie time. Maybe for you, but I think for a lot of experts or analysts,

whatever you want to call them them I think a lot of people are kind of down aren't you kind of down on him Heath I well I don't know if I I'm not as high on him as the consensus for sure he will be in my busts column as a at a QB 7 ADP so

yeah again another one of those situations where are you more worried because you're drafting Justin Herbert ahead of Aaron Rogers and Tom Brady and Jalen Hurts and Ryan Tannehill are you more worried because you're drafting Justin Herbert ahead of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady and Jalen Hurts and Ryan Tannehill? Are you more worried that you're not going to have any of them? I don't really think this I'll get myself in trouble, but I don't really think there's a huge risk that Justin Herbert's going to have one of those record smashing years and finishes a top three guy. so that's why he's not on my list just because even if i miss out on him i feel like it's going to be a situation where yeah he was worth qb7 but not much more right if there's injuries to some of the quarterbacks being

drafted ahead of him then he can finish higher like significantly higher but otherwise i feel like the ceiling is like qb5 right. If he finishes as a top five quarterback, I feel it's going to be like a TJ Hawkinson type thing, where he wasn't actually that good. It's just all the guys in front of him got hurt. Why do you feel that way? This guy, you know, I'll just give you the numbers. You know, 4,336 yards in 15 games, 31 touchdowns.

Plus, he had 234 rushing yards, so he gives you something there. And, you know, maybe he's Andrew Luck. Maybe he's just that great of a player. Why do you feel like he doesn't have that elite upside? What did Andrew Luck have? Two top five seasons in his career? Okay, but he was still one of the best quarterbacks in football.

Yeah, and I think you could be one of the best quarterbacks in football, and if you're not running for 500 yards, it's still really tough for you to be more than a borderline top five quarterback. Sure, you need to have those big passing numbers. What I like about Herbert is that he's got room to improve. He had this great year last year, but his touchdown rate was 5.2%. Heath, you tell me, is that great, good average?

Where does 5.2% rank? It's above average for all quarterbacks and probably elite for rookie quarterbacks. Right. But there is room to be better than that. Yeah, right. So he's going into his second year. That could go up.

His bad throw rate was 18%. 18% of his throws were bad that was 12th worst among quarterbacks he only rushed 3.7 times per game over 2 000 of his yards came after the catch that's and that's kind of crazy to think about when you think about all those deep balls that he threw to you know the no-name receivers on his team so i think he can get better at those longer completions i I think his touchdown rate has room to grow. I think his bad throw rate has room to drop and his new offensive coordinator, big time track record of leaning on his quarterback. They've already said in LA

that this offense will revolve around him. I think, I think Herbert's got some room to grow. I like getting him as QB seven and expecting him to finish at that spot or a little bit better. He also, according to Pro Football Focus, had the worst offensive line in the NFL last year. I forgot to mention that. And it could certainly, should certainly be better this year.

Three new starters. New offensive coordinator. I mean, it's an interesting take. I think Heath kind of puts me at ease a little bit because I can't take him at QB7. But to say, yeah, he probably doesn't have that crazy special season upside where if you miss out on him and he's great, okay, but he's not going to be like Kyler Murray last year or something like that, even though Murray, he got hurt, but he was obviously so impactful

before the injury. He was the number one or number two quarterback. That's a pretty good point. All right, I'm going to get the list of all the guys that Dave and Heath are worried about being worried about. But first, I'm going to tell you on Tuesday at 7 p.m. Eastern, you do not want to miss our YouTube live stream, youtube.com slash fantasy football today. There are a couple of reasons why you don't want to miss this one. First of all, we're giving away fantasy football today. Merchandise, merchandising, merchandising, fantasy football today, the flamethrower. Now we got, we got drinking glasses and shirts and

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You also have Kyle Pitts on there. I don't know how much more we have to talk about him, but we can. But Aaron Rodgers, go ahead. Your thoughts on what are you thinking right now about Rodgers and what are you worried about? I'm nervous about him repeating what he did last year. We've seen it now from prior league MVPs that they regress the season after. And we've seen it from Rodgers before we still finish this as a top 12

fantasy quarterback but not not at the rate that he did last season so i'm a little worried that i might have him ranked too high that i've got him as a top 10 fantasy quarterback and that might be a lot closer to what his ceiling what reality might be for aaron rogers you throw on top of that the fact that the only addition that they made was Amari Rodgers at wide receiver. I don't think Devin Funchess necessarily counts. The offensive line is changing a little bit. And we don't know if he'll even play.

I think that's kind of clouded things. By the time you listen to this, I believe a deadline will have passed about whether or not he can opt out of the season. I don't expect him to opt out of the season. I just, I have a much easier time drafting several other quarterbacks ahead of Aaron Rodgers, and I don't know if there should be more quarterbacks

ahead of him on the list. You have Mayeth right now. So you have Herbert and Wilson ahead of him, but then Hurts, Brady, Tannehill, Burrell. You think about Jalen Hurts' upside. You think about Tannehill's upside. Tom Brady in his second year in Tampa Bay. Even Stafford. Even Stafford

has a chance to just have a smash season, even though he's got a tough schedule to begin the year. I think he could really do great after that. I think it'd be kind of crazy to take the league MVP and put him 13th among quarterbacks, but I'm starting to lean like he's going to be more of a bus than anybody believes. And his ADP is QB nine.

It's just funny to have this conversation. And this is not a disagreement, but just an observation, right? To think Jalen hurts ahead of Aaron Rogers. And I, I, in the,

I always referenced this league in the one league that we've actually, that the three of us and Jamie, everybody's been in, magazine draft, that we're playing out, I took Hertz as my quarterback, and then a few rounds later I actually took Rogers. So I was happy to get both of them. But I took Hertz first. It's just funny that Aaron Rogers is, in my mind,

one of the four best quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. You can argue the numbers. We all know he's one of the greatest ever. He's coming off his best season. He's going to be, I think, extremely motivated. And we're taking Jalen Hurts, who has four starts to his name and completed 52% of his passes.

And his best wide receiver is probably a rookie who weighs 112 pounds. And we're taking him ahead of Aaron Rodgers. And I get it, but that's just funny the way things are in fantasy. We're projecting. That's what you do. If everything was based on historical data and how long everybody's been good, then Tom Brady would be the number one quarterback.

No, I'd say Aaron Rodgers would because statistically, well, it doesn't matter. But yeah, but there is something to that, right? If you're going Hurts versus Rodgers... It's very silly to think of it that way. That's just the way fantasy is. Why Christian McCaffrey, we're just completely ignoring the fact that he

missed 13 games last year. We're taking him number one overall. It's about looking forward, not back. I understand, but at the same time, if you're making a bet on talent, how do you pass over Aaron Rodgers? Because talent isn't everything in fantasy. That's the problem.

Heath, you have him ninth. Jamie has, I think, ninth, and you've Hurts tenth. You guys both have Rodgers one spot ahead of Hurts. Jamie has Hurts eighth and Rodgers eleventh, so he's a little lower. All right, we can move on good you want to weigh in or are we good i yeah i don't i mean like the bigger thing i'm worried about is that i think that aaron rogers is going to play all of the games that's that's the way you could really

be wrong that would be bad all right heath you are worried about being wrong about jonathan taylor yeah because i don't again this is another guy i'm probably not going to get very much of having him as a back of the first round pick in ppr because he goes top five or top six in most of our drafts and there is certainly a possibility i mean i said it last year that i thought he had the talent coming out to eventually be the best running back in football. That could happen this year. Naheem Hines could just disappear and they could turn Jonathan Taylor into a real workhorse. And I would be terribly upset that I didn't have the league winning running back of this season on any of my teams. But as of right now, I think Naeem Hines is still going to be a thing. I still think he probably gets 50 or 60 targets. And so I view Taylor as more of a back end of the first round pick.

So we know the formula for finishing in the top five if you don't have a big role in the passing game, right? It's Henry. I'm sure you expect him to have more catches than Henry, right? Yes. It's maybe Ze I'm sure you expect him to have more catches than Henry, right? Yes. It's maybe Zeke, not recent Zeke, but early in his career, Zeke. Those were the guys who didn't have 50 catches but still finished

in the top five. Do you see that path for Jonathan Taylor where he gets 35 to 40 catches but still is so good and scores so many touchdowns that he still warrants the pitch? it's certainly possible i like i don't see that that's why i'm not drafting him there but yeah that's one of the things i'm worried about you're also worried about being wrong about giovante williams

yeah i think like this denver situation as a whole i've got jerry judy on my list as well so we could just tackle both of those at the same time. There are a lot of things around the Broncos that make it look like it could be a pretty decent team. Drew Locke is obviously the problem, but we've seen quarterbacks be really bad and then in their second or third year, make a big step forward. So if Drew Locke was somehow an average NFL quarterback this year

and Javante Williams unseats Melvin Gordon early in the year, Williams is probably a top 20 running back. Jerry Judy's probably a top 25 wide receiver. And I am wishing that I didn't have either of them ranked so low. Do you have Judy ranked ahead of Sutton? No. I'm worried I'm ahead of Sutton? No.

I'm worried I'm too low on Judy. Right. I get that. Do you also worry you're too low on Sutton? Not as much. Because you think Judy has more upside? I think Judy has more raw talent than Cortland Sutton. I think he has the type

of profile where if everything went right for jerry judy he could legitimately earn 140 150 targets no matter who else is on the team because he's just the best guy he could lead the nfl in receiving that's how good he is that's how good of a route runner he is despite what we saw last year i think his hands are still very good we'll know real soon this year if he's still dropping passes all over the field. But I think he was an award winner in college. He can do that again in the pros. But I think having Locke at the quarterback would be a big problem last year. Only 58% of the throws that Locke threw to Judy were catchable. It's unfathomable at a professional level

that there's a quarterback out there that can't be better than that to his younger son. But, Dave, let's be fair here because Burrow to Green was even worse. It's true. Right? It's true. And that's partially because those guys

were running pretty deep routes, right? I mean, that's part of it. It's harder to throw accurately. Even on the intermediate stuff, like Judy, the ball needs to be, that's part of it. It's harder to throw. Even on the intermediate stuff, like Judy, the ball needs to be there where Judy can get it. And I think that there were timing and rhythm issues all year long between those two. I'd be kind of curious to see how Judy does if it's 17 games with Teddy Bridgewater. Apparently they've been clicking in camp. There's been reports that he's been doing better with Teddy than with Drew. I don't think he can lead the NFL in receiving with Teddy Bridgewater as his

quarterback, but I think he could be a top 24 receiver. He could be as good as DJ Moore was. Could be as, yeah. Right. So your concern is that Judy could have this huge year and you're just going to be too low on him.

Yeah. Yeah. Same thing with Javante Williams, but I don't, I don't think the talent's quite the same with Javante Williams. For me, the concern with him is more that I don't think Melvin Gordon's done. And I think the Broncos would like to have a committee approach. Kind of like what I said about Michael Carter,

except the difference is I'm not worried about Carter so much because I don't think the Jets are going to be very good. And I don't think there's as good a chance that Carter could turn into a full-time back as there is with williams do you get like the same type of vibes from giovante's situation as you did from jonathan taylor's last year because i remember why i was unhappy to take taylor last year was because i thought marlon mack was going to be a thorn in his side for half the season and by the second half of the year jonathan taylor would be great but i didn't want to spend a aorn in his side for half the season and by the second half of the year jonathan

taylor would be great but i didn't want to spend a a top 40 pick on a running back who i had to wait long for and it just turned out that marlon mack got hurt in week one and jonathan taylor still didn't take off then he still needed a lot of the year to kind of understand the game and then toward the end of the year he was playing like a man possessed and was on pace for 2200 total yards and all that stuff. But I wonder if it's kind of the same type of feeling here. The difference for me is I think Melvin Gordon is more established and better than Marlon Mack. And I don't think Javante Williams is as good as Jonathan Taylor.

I agree with both of those things. The Colts had an offensive line that we could project to be the best in football and maybe it was a top three or top four i don't think the broncos offensive line or situation is quite as good as the colts was either you can also draft giovante williams at least two rounds later than where people were drafting jonathan taylor last year right yeah i mean i wonder because that's where as i recall giovante williams right 57th overall. That's similar to where I want to say... Yeah, it's going up, right?

I want to say that's kind of where Miles Sanders was going two years ago. He got lucky. I say this all the time. He got lucky that Jordan Howard got hurt. If Jordan Howard didn't get hurt, Miles Sanders would have had a pretty useless fantasy season as a rookie. I think at 57 overall, I wish it were a little bit later.

I wish it were in the 60s. I wish it were 10 picks later. Yeah, I wish it were my sixth round pick. But if it were my sixth round pick for Javante Williams, I've never taken him in the fifth round. Then I'm willing to wait. I felt the same way about Jonathan Taylor. I only drafted him in one league last year.

I wasn't willing to wait with a fourth-round pick. But with a sixth-round pick, I'd be willing to wait. But I feel like Heath might be right. You just don't really think it's just a matter of time until he takes over for Melvin Gordon, right? I mean, that's kind of what you're saying. You're sort of drafting him 60th round, 60th overall, around there, 5'6", saying,

okay, I'll wait, but it's going to happen. And it really might not. It might be like Miles Sanders, where if there were no injury, I don't think it would have happened for him. Right. Yeah, I don't think we have reason to think that Javante Williams is just going to take the job away from Melvin Gordon without some assistance. Okay, Dave, we talked about James Robinson. Yes, we'll get into Robinson because you were not on that show,

but he was on the avoid list for Heath. He's on the players you're most worried about being wrong about list. Let's talk about Alvin Kamara. Okay, it's a spicy one. He's going to be the third pick in a lot of drafts, fourth pick in a lot of drafts. What do you think about Kamara? What are you worried about?

How do you see him and What are you worried about? How do you see him and what are you worried about? I'm starting to get worried that all the concern about him not getting to that 80 reception mark and be a touchdown hog is legit. And I've started doing the research that I've just been putting off and putting off on Kamara. Other people have done it. I want to do it on my own. The pass-run ratio when Taysom Hill was under center for those four games was tilted toward the run. I believe it was 48-52 in favor of the run for the Saints. You take out the game against Denver. We're going to azer stat it here. Take out that game against Denver, and it was a really weird game. It was not competitive at all. And it was, I believe it was 53-47 pass run.

So just a little bit in favor of the pass in the other three games that Taysom Hill started. That happens to be the exact same pass run ratio in the 12 games that Drew Brees started for the Saints last year. And I went back and checked. The last time the Saints were above 60% pass was before Alvin Kamara was even there. It's interesting. They've been anywhere between 50 and 47, 57%, 50 and 57% in favor of the past. Each of the four seasons that Alvin Kamara is there kept digging a little bit deeper, really looked hard at every single target that Alvin Kamara got from Taysom Hill. It took four games, but by that fourth game, Taysom Hill was

starting to kind of force feed the ball to Alvin Kamara in a couple of ways. One, in the screen game, for sure. Saints were calling more of those. But he was also understanding of reading defensive coverage. Kamara would get open five yards off the line of scrimmage. No defenders were near him. Taysom Hill would dink it to him.

Alvin Kamara would make a play after the catch. If we keep seeing that, then there's reason to believe that, okay, it won't be like 40 some odd catches, which is what the 17 game pace was with Taysom Hill last year. It might be halfway in between that and 80, which is 60 catches. And then the other thing that you have to do is just look at the touchdowns. How many touchdowns inside the five might Taysom Hill take away from Alvin Kam camara that's been a big area for alvin camara over the years you'd hate to see him lose even 20 of those touchdowns to somebody else and so i'm worried that if if we keep him at top five and he's i don't believe he's in my top five and non ppr but certainly in ppr does he really have the chance to get there is that really where his

ceiling is now because i feel like maybe now his ceiling, his yardage could come down a little bit. His touchdowns could come down a little bit. And his catches could come down by like 20. And I'm worried that I'm wrong on Kamara being a top five running back, regardless of format. One other thing about those games with Taysom Hill,

he has seven catches in that last game. That was the only game they lost. That was the game where you could tell. But it was the only game they lost. They told Taysom Hill, he has seven catches in that last game. That was the only game they lost. That was the game where you could tell. But it was the only game they lost. They told Taysom Hill, you got to start using Kamara more. All right, but like I said, they were 3-0 in the other three games. So they lost

that game, and he got seven catches. So that sticks out to me, too. Is that just because of the game script? And not only that, I mean, they blew out Atlanta the first game. They blew out Denver in the second game. Close game at Atlanta in the third game. I think Kamara had two catches.

And then seven catches as they lost to Philadelphia 24-21. It was a close game, so maybe it wasn't the game script. I don't know. But it does stand out that it was the game they lost that Kamara finally got involved in the passing game. But do you think he has a bigger role in the running game? Because he's their best player, maybe Michael Thomas, but maybe it's him.

He's their best chance offensively. So shouldn't he get the ball more? They'd be so foolish not to give him the ball. And why didn't they do it before when Drew Brees was old? Because Drew Brees was the best player. Was he last year? Was he the year before when he was banged up and old? Yeah, he was pretty amazing.

He still had, you know, setting completion percentage records and didn't turn the ball over. He's doing just fine. So you're just going to leave an explosive talent like Alvin Kamara? They did. They gave him 80 catches. I'm just saying, if you don't think they're going to give him the ball in the passing game, do they compensate?

The efficiency won't be the same. He's not going to average the same type of yards off of a carry as he would off a catch. Sure. But does he get more carries? If Tayson Hill's a quarterback? Either way. Yeah.

I mean, either way. It might not be a lot more. But if Tayson Hill's the quarterback, I don't think he's getting more carries. I think it's negligible if he does. Even if he does, I think the results won't be like, wow, he just ran for 1,500 yards. I'm worried about taking him third, too. I see all that stuff. Are you worried about him going third or fourth, Heath?

Yeah, I don't have him ranked there because I have Taysom Hill protected as the starting quarterback, so I don't know that I've drafted Kamara yet. He was almost someone that I was worried about because I'm getting concerned that Jameis is going to be the starter. But I'm still not sure Jameis is the same thing for him that Breeze was.

Kamara is number five for me, I believe, and six in non-PPR. We're going to take a timeout here on two-minute warning on Fantasy Football today. And when we come back, James Robinson, Logan Thomas, Tyler Lockett,

Juju Smith, Schuster. Why are Dave and Heath worried about being wrong about them? That's coming up right after this quick break on fantasy football today. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially,

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Join free at rakuten.ca. Start shopping and get your cash back sent to you by check or PayPal. Get the Rakuten app or join at rakuten.ca. R-A-K-U-T-E-N dot C-A. All right, let's bounce. Let's stick with Dave. Stick withA. All right, let's bounce. Let's stick with Dave. Stick with Dave. All right, James Robinson.

So this was someone that Heath actually said was on one of the headliners of his Do Not Draft list at about 60th overall. Is that what it was, Heath? For James Robinson? Yes, 60th overall. And Dave, where are you on Robinson? What are you worried about

in terms of being wrong about him? He's currently a round seven pick for me. Actually, I'm worried both ways. Am I playing it safe? Am I sitting on the fence with James Robinson by keeping him in round seven and calling him a touchdown-dependent running back? Or am I going to be wrong because he'll end up being the primary traditional style running back in this jacksonville offense or is he going to stink and get minimized and you'll see a lot

more of travis etn and trevor lawrence doing their thing in this offense so i'm not quite sure where i'm coming out on james robinson and how big of a role he'll have last year he had a big role you want to talk about the best player on an offense, there's no question it was James Robinson in Jacksonville last year, and it was kind of a miracle that he ended up being so good, given how bad Jacksonville was. And we already know that the reception total figures to shrink. I definitely feel like the touchdowns are going to have a huge importance.

If he only gets four or five touchdowns this year, it's going to be a colossal bust even in round seven. But I think he can get more than that. I think Jacksonville's offense will be pretty good. I'm just worried about how many overall touches he's going to get from game to game. Interesting take right there that you think their offense is going to be pretty good. Is that sarcasm? No.

They had one of the worst offenses in football last year. They had three of the worst quarterbacks in football last year. Sorry. If you look at what Gardner Minshew has done, you don't find a lot of rookie quarterbacks, no matter how good they end up being, that do better than Gardner Minshew. That's the weird thing.

It wasn't a rookie last year. But Trevor Lawrence is. So he has to be better than like 4100 yards and you know what i'm saying is as much as we crap on jacksonville's passing game it's it was actually i think better than what you get from most rookie quarterbacks jacksonville did the right thing in the second half of last year not playing gardner mintry They might have accidentally pulled the Jets and not got Trevor Lawrence. So, but, you're right, Adam.

It's, most rookie quarterbacks are worse than Gardner Minshew has been the last two years in terms of efficiency, especially as passers. Yeah. You can make a very good argument that Kyler Murray

still hasn't had a season as a passer as good as Gardner Minshew. Yes, he could. Yeah, I don't think Lawrence is great. But I think Trevor Lawrence is really, really good. I do too. I think he's one that can break that mold. But last year we were talking about Joe Burrow

as a generational passer, a generational prospect. And he wasn't quite there, right? He threw 40 times a game. That was awesome. But he averaged 6.7 yards per attempt at a 3.2% touchdown rate. I don't think he even averaged 20 fantasy points per game last year. And that's what 40 pass attempts per game. Yeah.

So yeah, I, right. So, right. That's why I just thought it was interesting that you think their offense will be pretty good. You know,

I'm not saying, yeah, I do. Okay. Um, do you think though, with Robinson, kind of like the argument Heath made against Herbert, that even if he's worth the draft capital,

he doesn't have, unless there's an injury to ETN and he starts getting the passing game work, that he doesn't really have that much upside? He won't be missing out on too much? I think when it comes to a running back that has the upside to finish as a top 24 running back, you don't want to miss out on that when it's around seven or later.

That's why when the ADP being like round five, I think you said, where, where's he getting drafted? Round five. Yeah. 60th. I feel like that's,

I think if you're drafting them there, you're anticipating him finishing as a top 24 running back in fantasy points per game. I think he can fall below that if things just don't quite go his way. So I'm sitting on James Robinson as a round seven pick. Is he ahead of who? Is he still ahead of Mike Davis? They're back-to-back.

Back-to-back. Yeah, you got to take Davis. Tied in the 60th overall. 60th and 61st, yeah. One spot behind Javante Williams. One spot, yeah. Three picks, one running back spot behind Javante Williams. I don't understand really how Miles Gaskin and Mike Davis

are after the 55th overall pick. That's just, you know, you live in your CBS bubble, and they go 45th. I see more stuff, specifically on Davis, not as much on Gaskin, but I see more stuff from the industry on Twitter

warning people to avoid the trap of Mike Davis than I do hyping him up. And I could even understand if you're saying the trap of Mike Davis is a round four pick, don't take him there. But as someone who doesn't really believe in Mike Davis, I would take him at 60th overall every time.

He could be the starting running back for the Falcons. He could be. Every indication we have is that he will be. Yeah, I mean the whole year. I feel like he's definitely going to start that way, but he could just be like a a 300 touch 250 to 300 touch guy whatever like the two guys right now that are the biggest competition well three guys like you've got a wide receiver who's actually just a kick returner who sometimes plays running back now now they say that he's gonna be more of

a traditional running back yeah yeah i've heard that a couple of times before. Did they say it in a Matt Nagy voice? They've got a rookie, undrafted free agent who weighs like 145 pounds. Yeah, he's a passing down guy. And they've got a third year running back who two years in a row couldn't beat out Brian Hill or Edo

Smith. Yeah. By the way, does he get four-n how ronald jones was that weird guy well i'm thinking about what happened after he got cut where somebody the falcon signed somebody during august late august to come in and push slash move out mike davis I think that's certainly possible, and that's the risk, and that's why here's the thing. In my opinion, if that wasn't a risk, if you told me the Falcons are going to play

with their current running back stable for the entire year, Mike Davis should be a third-round pick. But why is he any different than Todd Gurley? Todd Gurley was so bad. Now, he was like a top 10 running back, I think, for the first maybe half of the season because he kept scoring. But he was awful.

And eventually he lost his job to bad players. So I don't know. I can't get on board with a third round, dude. I feel like you have to be a better player than Mike Davis. Maybe I'm wrong about Mike Davis. Maybe he's better than I realize. But from what we know and his age, I don't know about third round, Heath.

That seems a little rich. I think the situation in Atlanta this year is much better than the situation he was in in Carolina last year. You remember one of the worst offensive lines in football? That was them. And the numbers about, I think he was second in the NFL

in terms of yards on plays where he was met in the NFL in terms of yards on plays where he was met in the backfield by a defender. His elusive rating was very good. I think that he was in a bad situation last year. Yeah, running back talent's questionable as to how much it matters at all anyway. And yes, he could lose his job at some point, but I'm just saying I don't... Like, Kadri Olsen wasn't...

Todd Gurley lost his job to two players the Falcons thought were better than Olsen. Yeah. So, by the way, have we talked about David Montgomery calling out CBS? It was awesome. It was great. We got to get this out by the time.

You want to explain it? Who ranked him 25th? Nobody. Apparently, he said it who ranked him 25th nobody apparently he said that cbs ranked him 25th among running backs and that he needed more work he said nfl it may have been somebody else but yeah he's 19th in adp uh by the way i I took David Montgomery late in round three in one draft. He is definitely someone I'm worried

about being wrong about. We can talk about that on Fantasy Football today in five. Let's get to the rest of your players that you're worried about being wrong about. Tyler Lockett, Heath, you like him more than ConsenSys? You don't? Have you ever done a podcast with me? I should have put a question mark at the end of that. I just should have said, you like him more than consensus? You don't? Have you ever done a podcast with me?

I should have put a question mark at the end of that. I just said, you like him more than consensus. Yeah, I've got him like 14th or something, and the consensus might have him at 25. Yeah, I'm a little bit worried that there is the possibility that either the Seahawks do go more run heavy or DK Metcalf does become the true alpha number one in the offense or both like I still think Tyler Lockett's very good he was very hit or miss he did struggle

in the second half I don't put very much weight into that but if that was a sign of things to come and that carries over into 2021 then I'm going to look foolish for drafting him in the fourth round but it wasn't just lockett who was terrible in the second half dk was bad in the second half russ was throwing less in the second half the whole offense tried to change in the second half and we we want the first half offense back and it sounds like there's a chance that that could happen i'm still trying to figure that out i just love the fact that tyler lockett as up and down as he goes 10 8 10 in touchdowns last year career high and 100 catches career low 10.5 yards per catch but you know we can we can deal with that if he's catching 100 footballs a year i'm i'm hoping

that he i'm a little worried about g Gerald Everett taking a little bit of work away from him and Eskridge taking a little bit of work away and do they really really really just go gung-ho on the run you are not worried about Eskridge and Everett come on like if they take away targets

that lowers the target volume for Tyler Lockett then yeah I'm a little bit worried about it. I think it ever could be a key to them beating cover targets. I'm sorry, Heath. I didn't mean to cut you off. That's okay. I do think the reports that we're getting from their OTAs and the things they are doing with the offense make me want to rank Lockett even higher. Because if they're running a fast-paced offense

and getting the ball out of Russ's hands quickly, those are more Tyler Lockett routes than DK Metcalf routes. Funny you say that. Everybody listen to Fantasy Football Today in 5 on Saturday. Well, every day. But I just recorded a DK Metcalf breakdown preview with Jacob Gibbs, and I did bring that up. This new offense,

does it seem more suited for Lockett than Metcalf? We talked about that. So listen to that. The good news is, Heath, there is no way you're going to have to draft Tyler Lockett at your ranking. So, you know, because he's going 24th at wide receiver, 57th overall in NFC ADP in the last month.

So you could be wrong about him and still win in ADP. Is he the player? I'd be curious. It would take some work to figure this out. Is he the player who at their position is being ranked, drafted the furthest behind where they finished the past two years? If you remove last year, which was injury plagued,

then it would be Galladay because he's going just after Lockett. I think, well, who has finished higher the last two years, Lockett or Galladay? It's probably close, right? I think it's 2019.

Galladay beat Lockett by like third by, he was ninth and Lock. It was 13th. So they were pretty close to that. And then last year, obviously, right. Well, this whole group of feeling even in fantasy points per game,

I think lock. It was a head feeling lock at Gallaudet going 22nd, 24th and 25th. Jamar chase is 23rd, but all of them, you know, feeling had a ton of touchdowns. Lockett had a hundred catches. Gallaudet got hurt, but they're, they're all had a ton of touchdowns. Lockett had 100 catches.

Gallaudet got hurt, but they're all like, drafters seem worried about them. And is that the answer? That the three of them, Thielen, Lockett, Gallaudet? Yeah, probably wide receiver for sure. I don't know. Mike, if we're just looking at last year, then it would be David Montgomery at running back.

That's true. Okay, and then you want to hit us up with Juju? It's kind of the same thing, except cheaper. I'm not even going to ask how you feel about Juju because I have done a podcast with you before, but what are you worried about here? I'm worried that Dave's right. And that they do give more targets to Deontay and Chase Claypool and that Juju came back on this one-year deal to rehabilitate his image and get a big contract next year when the salary cap goes back up. And the Steelers didn't have the same plan in mind. Now, the fact that Ben Roethlisberger was allegedly lobbying to bring him back, the fact that Juju says, I'm not going to play in the slot as much next year, those things are encouraging to me. I'm still pretty happy

drafting him as a number two wide receiver. I still think what he did at a young age and what he did even if I think what he did efficiency last year is primed for, I'll say it so everybody doesn't get mad, positive regression. Nice.

Yeah. And so I think if he gets the same targets he did last year, he's going to be considerably better. But there's a risk that those targets go to different guys. I think Juju Smith-Schuster is their best wide receiver. I hope Ben Roethlisberger does as well. I'm worried about being wrong about all three of them. I'm worried about being wrong on every single stealer. That offensive line is ugly.

I think that the three... How do they get around that? Yeah, that's a good point. And the three wide receivers, to me, are close enough in, let's say, projected skill, if we're trying to guess who's the best, that I could see any of them finishing first, any of them finishing second, any of them finishing first any of them finishing second any of them finishing third

so you're just fading Deontay um I have been yeah the current ADP Deontay is going at the four or five turn pick 51 Juju and Claypool are both at the end of the sixth round Claypool pick 70 Juju it pick 72

I like going one spot ahead of Odell Beckham. Put it this way. I'm definitely going to fade Deontay in anything other than full PPR. I could see Johnson just having 15, 20 more catches than Claypool. You know?

So he'd only be like 100 yards behind him? Claypool is kind of the one I want, but I don't know. This could change. But I don't know. They threw so much last year. They're going to try to avoid that. Don't know what Roethlisberger has left.

They are, and Dave, you mentioned the line. The Steelers have got to feel like one of the biggest mysteries this year. Based on the way they've been used, the offensive line would have the biggest negative impact on Claypool, right? Yes, because then that takes away Roethlisberger's ability to throw the deep ball.

Right. Or even intermediate throws. I mean, I just think that every single defense is going to see that offensive line and just try and take advantage. Now, they can be clever around that, but it's still going to result in short passes. And we've already seen that show, and the results were good

for a lot of the receivers. All three receivers, the results were good. I just think that Cleveland defense, that pass rush they've got, and the Baltimore defense, and Pittsburgh's offensive line, those four games seem like a disaster for them. Hopefully one of them is week

18, Heath. I don't know how you scheme around that. You get rid of the ball. I think the way to scheme around it is to do what it sounds like they're going to do, which is a lot of tempo changing. So sometimes they'll go really fast tempo and sometimes they won't. And a lot of pre-snap movement, which I don't know if there's a way to show that they did a lot or a little of that last year without actually watching, but I know that that's a hallmark of their new offensive coordinator. I am not seeing a lot of great pass rushes on this schedule. They don't play Cleveland or Baltimore until week eight.

Denver should have a good one, but they got a buy in week seven. Buffalo drafted defensive ends with their first two picks, so they obviously have to improve there. Las Vegas, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Denver, Seattle. Those first six games might actually set up pretty well for them. And then they go into their bye. Then they get Cleveland, Khalil Mack after that. Yeah, I don't know. Baltimore is week. Cleveland's week 17,

which is the fantasy championship. Baltimore's week 18. So you will miss one of those games. All right. Spend a little too much time there. Dave, you want to save Logan Thomas for FFT in five or do you want to knock it out now? I just keep underrating him and I just wonder if he's going to end up being the number two receiver,

number two pass catcher again in this offense. We're just kind of looking at last year and saying, yeah, he was a byproduct of the quarterbacks that were there and the lack of other targets besides McLaurin. Even if he comes down a little bit from what he did last year, that would still be a pretty byproduct of the quarterbacks that were there and the lack of other targets besides McLaurin. Like is there, even if he's comes down a little bit from what he did last year,

that would still be a pretty decent fantasy tight end at PPR. You've got him 17th. He has him 14th. Jamie has Logan Thomas 12th, although I am looking at non PPR. I'm sorry, but I assume Jamie's still the highest on Logan Thomas and full PPR. And he is someone, I agree,

he's someone who I rank below where I have him projected. I actually have him 10th in full PPR, so I may be the highest on him in full PPR. Jamie also does. I think I have him 7th or 8th in my projections. It's tough. One of those guys, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, JD McKissick, one of those guys

is probably still going to be good. The other two are probably going to be awful. Logan Thomas is tight end nine in ADP just after Noah Fant and well ahead of tight end 10, Tyler Higby. Right now, the way it's being drafted, Fant and Thomas are

93rd-ish, 94th-ish overall, and then Higby 112th. So people see that. Did my Acer stat today make you worried that you were wrong about Noah Fant? Absolutely not. No.

And I can't wait for... Heath and I are recording a show tomorrow that's going to be mostly emails and Apple podcast questions, but also some Acer-y stats, I guess. I want some Heath stats in there, too. We'll just try to out-stat each other. Noah Phan is going to

come up. We are definitely going to talk about him, maybe right at the top. It's going to air on Monday. It's going to be a 4th of July special that we're recording on Friday because we are not working. Fireworks. I don't get it. So yeah, we'll record that on Friday. It will air on Monday.

Noah Phan is going to be talked about and some other things. Also, CBS Sports HQ. It's always on and it's the best way to get caught up on what's going on in the sports world. Breaking news. I mean, the second we hear about Giannis Antetokounmpo, there's going to be breaking news on

I'm obviously recording this on Thursday. You're hearing this on Friday. Going to be breaking news on FFT. Sorry, on CBS Sports HQ. Things like that. Start your morning at 8 a.m. Eastern with Morning Buzz. That's an hour of highlights, news, and all the days need to know. And 6 p.m. Eastern,

they break down all the night's action and release dozens of picks from the best analysts and cappers in the sports world. We don't talk so much about gambling on this show, but CBS has amazing gambling resources now.

HQ's got picks. A lot of our podcasts have picks. We have a gambling podcast that you should check out. If you just go to cbssports.com slash podcast,

you'll see all of our shows. And Sportsline, of course. Sportsline.com for great fantasy advice and gambling advice. Let's read some emails. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. From Tyler in California. 12-team, two-keeper league.

Who should I keep? It's PPR. No round penalty. Kyler Murray, Mark Andrews, no. So how about the running backs and wide receivers? Kamara, Zeke, Akers, Dobbins, Devontae Adams, Keenan Allen. Pick any two.

This is so hard not seeing the names because I just... All right. Camara, Zeke, Akers, and Dobbins. It's Camara and Zeke. Devante Adams, Keenan Allen. Sure. Camara and Zeke. I'm going to try to... I got a late start on the notes, so I didn't put the emails in the notes. That's all right. As you

say who it's from, I just search for it in my inbox. Okay. That's a good. As you say who it's from, I just search for it in my inbox. Okay, that's a good idea. This one is from a guy with the same name of a famous country singer and from a college town north of Sacramento and south of

Redding, California. I got the email. Who do you think that's? Schrager, you know country music. I was going to go with Toby. Okay, Toby from a college town north of Sacramento and south of Redding. Okay, we'll figure it out.

PPR League, 10 team, 1 QB. Would you do this trade? Give up Logan Thomas and a 2023 first and second round pick for Amari Cooper and a 2022 second round pick.

So if you just cancel out the second rounders, forgetting about what year they are, it's Logan Thomas and a 2023 first rounder for Amari Cooper. Yep. I would do for Amari Cooper. Yep. I would do that. To get Cooper.

Win now. Yeah. I mean, obviously, in all of these trades come with that caveat. Like, you better have a good team if you're trading away first round picks. I could read you his roster because I found the email. It's okay. I'm not going to remember it. His receivers are already Michael Thomas,

Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd. Don't even listen to Adam. Robert Woods. He's not important. What do you mean? I didn't want you to read it, and you read it anyway. He doesn't need a Murray Cooper. He doesn't need to make this trade. You say no? I say no.

Okay. This is from Lito. L He doesn't need to make this trade. So you say no? I say no. Okay. This is from Lito. L-I-T-O, Dave. Lito Shepard? He was an excellent cornerback for a while. He says, hey, Drummond,

Banks, and Dunphy. Those are fills. Yeah. Fill? Man, I feel really stupid but I don't know one of these Phil's Phil Drummond

that's correct I don't know who Phil Drummond is yeah world don't move to the beat of just one drum may not be right for you may not be right for some a man is born he's a man of me and a long I should know him? Heath knows it.

Ben, no chance, knows it. Everybody who's 40 or older knows it yeah i should know that i know everything that everybody that's 40 or older know even though i'm not there but i have no idea about adam oh is that different strokes oh that tagline is what did it that culture reference is that what it is yes it'd be hysterical if it was something else and i just did all that for the wrong character but i know i know my drummonds and jacksons okay question and abraham the goldfish draft strategy for a 10 team ppr league versus 12 team ppr league do you still load up on running back early or are the top five to ten wide receivers pushed up with two fewer teams i push up quarterbacks and tight ends or are the top five to ten wide receivers pushed up with two fewer teams?

I push up quarterbacks and tight ends. Agreed. Yeah, I'm not quite sure why wide receivers would be pushed up. So, okay. So, no. Well, in this league, it's three wide receivers slash tight end. I don't know if you're pushing up tight ends. Yeah, it'd be good to have all that information.

Now you got it. Yeah, sorry. Okay, this is from Rob, the 2020 Dynasty Champ guy. I need a minute worth of discussion on Corey Davis. I get it. The Jets, dot, dot, dot. Terrible. Stay away.

It's all the same narrative, but the team just underwent a complete administrative remodel and picked up a top-talent quarterback. I see a major sleeper in Corey Davis. Tell me I'm wrong. It's tough because they obviously value him more than anyone else in the NFL. They went out and acquired him. In that

type of scenario, I generally think that guy's going to have a big role. If we're projecting this to be a 49ers-type offense, Corey Davis is not the type of guy they've really ever used at all unless he's going to play tight end. So I just don't know. And I've said this argument with Devontae Parker and with Will Fuller.

You get to this stage of your career and your best season, 980 yards and five touchdowns. I don't know what the upside really is. And Elijah Moore's probably going to be better by the middle of the year. It's almost like you are what you are. And what I think he is, is he averaged 13 and change in PPR last year. I think he can get you around 11.

He's one of those solid bench PPR receivers. And I'm starting to get a little excited about Zach Wilson and what he might be able to do in this offense, but we've already chronicled it. There are so many pass catchers there that I don't see a way for Corey Davis to be a target vacuum there. Heath, wouldn't you say that if they acquired, a way for Corey Davis to be a target vacuum there.

Heath, wouldn't you say that if they acquired, if they signed Corey Davis and they drafted Michael Carter, but neither of them are fits in a typical San Francisco offense, then they're dumb and they shouldn't have done a typical San Francisco offense. That's what I'm trying to say. I don't think that it's just going to be East coast Niners.

Well, really one of the only things that I like about the jets currently is the fact they might run the Niners offense. So I think that's going to be their starting point. And I think philosophically they're absolutely going to be like the Niners or at least like West coast principles, multiple running backs. It's very well.

Yeah. So who's the Jets wide receiver you would draft first? Corey Davis. I think it's Crowder and PPR as of now. Who's the Jets? Where do you have your highest Jets player ranked, Dave?

Carter. He's a round seven pick. Round seven. Yeah, like RB what, you know? I'll tell you. Okay. He is RB number 27. Okay, that's a lot higher than me.

My highest jet is Michael Carter at pick 100. Yeah, I've got him at 72. So technically the last pick around six. He might share, but to me, he's the most talented running back on that roster, and it's not particularly close. And I think it'll come to pass that he'll be the main running back. He won't get

every touch. He won't even get 70% but he'll get a lot. I have Tyler Croft tight end six just ahead of Kyle Pitts. Okay, we're out of here. And even he's ahead of Chris Herndon. I'm pretty sure this is the Friday episode.

Schrager has thrown me off so much I don't even know what day of the week it is anymore so have a great weekend it's Friday right recording on Thursday this is your Friday episode so enjoy your weekend Monday we have a pre-recorded show that Heath and I are doing on Friday it's your 4th of July extravaganza there will be firecrackers

as Heath said earlier I think that's the expression he used so get excited for that there will be firecrackers, as Heath said earlier. I think that's the expression he used. So get excited for that. There will be bottle rockets. And we'll talk to you then. All right, enjoy the 4th, everybody. USA! Best Outdoor Web.