Fantasy Football Today - Top 5 QBs! Who's #1? Is Lamar Jackson Top 5? (06/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 26, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  We're debating the Top 5 at each position this week and kicking it off with quarterback! We've got a quick round of news and notes (2:55) and then we reveal our consensus Top 5 (7:35) which has Lamar Jackson as QB4. Dave and Heath discuss (8:35) Jackson vs. Joe Burrow ... How do the rankings change in 4-point per passing TD leagues (12:00)? Which Top 5 QB has the most upside (13:10)? Most downside? Was it easy to leave Justin Herbert out of the Top 5 (14:45)? We then compare Justin Fields and Jackson (16:05) and debate if Jalen Hurts has a higher floor than Patrick Mahomes (21:25) ... Making the QB1 case for several QBs (26:00) including some sleepers and reading your YouTube comments (34:10) ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Let's debate the top five quarterbacks in fantasy football for 2023. If you look at our consensus rankings, the rankings combination between Jamie, Dave Heath, Joe Burrow's not in the top five. That's a little bit controversial. I think he's six, so not too controversial. But we'll find out the reason for that.

I'm Adam Azer. It is Sunday night, and I'm very pleased to be joined by Heath Cummings and welcoming Dave Richard back after two weeks of vacation and work. And work. He was in Chicago doing work. And, you know, four weeks of vacation. Sorry, Dave. Welcome back, Dave.

Another week of vacation coming up. But you know what? I'll be ready to devote myself entirely to the 2023 football season. Had a great time in Chicago. Bears were very nice. I got to witness every second of all three days of minicamp. And lots of discuss from there. Kind of fits in with what we're talking about today, if I understand the topic correctly. Top five quarterbacks, you do.

Top five quarterbacks. What is a minicamp practice like? What's the pace? He's not allowed to tell us this. There's new rules. Dave can't tell us anything that happened at practice. No, no, no. I didn't go to the Patriots minicamp. I went to the Bears minicamp. What are they doing at minicamp? You know, it's

basically almost like a passing camp. They really do next to nothing when it comes to rushing there were no full pads on uh players were in shells um really it's just it's it's a good way to see what kind of progress players in the passing game have made okay is did khalil herbert have actual frying pans for hands? No, no, no. I can't remember a single target that he had that he didn't catch. No, that wasn't nice. He doesn't struggle with catching the ball.

Well, I mean, what I was going to say is he had maybe like three targets the entire game. He was splitting first-team work. Would you like to guess who he was splitting first-team work with? I would expect Deontay Foreman. Correct. Do you know who Deontay Foreman. Correct. Do you know who Deontay Foreman was splitting second team reps with? Travis Homer. No. Roshan Johnson. So a little bit of Foreman playing on the second

team. That was a little surprising. Alright, we'll hear about Justin Fields in a little bit. Alright, news and notes real quick, then we'll get into the top five. Remember James White, PPR superstar, former Patriots running back. He says Bill Belichick loves Ramondre Stevenson and that White expects a big role for Stevenson,

but also with Bill O'Brien back, they'll probably have a sub back, and he expects that to be Ty Montgomery at this point if they don't put all the work on Ramondre Stevenson. It was a lot there. It was a lot of Stevenson praise, Heath. I know there was a lot of parsing there, but the point is, yay Stevenson? Well, yeah. I mean, I don't think Ty Montgomery is a concern.

I am concerned that they're not going to throw the ball as much to him. I think I brought this up a couple of weeks ago, but I'm going to read the tweet again because I think it's relevant here. He is the eighth running back in the last 20 years to have 80 targets in a season and average less than five yards per target. Oh, wow. Every other running back the next year lost at least 12 targets. The most recent was Najee Harris, who lost 41 targets. Before that, it was a Tariq Cohen injury then Carlos Hyde who lost 72 targets Michael Pittman lost 56 most lost 25 plus wow okay that's

a great stat uh speaking of running backs catching passes out of the backfield uh Atlanta Falcons.com writer Tori McElhaney thinks that Cordero Patterson will have a bigger role in the passing game this season. I wonder if that's out of the backfield or if that's lined up as a receiver. Yeah, I think it's lined up as a receiver. Well, that's the way I interpret it

because this writer said they've got their two running backs now. They don't need Patterson in the backfield as much as a running back. They've got Bijan and they've got They don't need Patterson in the backfield as much as a running back. They've got Bijan, and they've got Algier. So I don't know. Does this matter? And Dave, Matt Collins is the number two wide receiver currently on the Falcons, right?

No, it's Cordell Patterson. Okay. Oh, all right. Okay. This I thought was very unfair. Who are the four best teams? Dave, who are the four best teams in football? The four best teams in football? The four best teams in football?

Or the other three, the Chiefs and any of the other three best teams. Chiefs and Eagles have to be up there. Who else? Probably the Bengals and the Bills. Yeah, okay. 49ers. Let's just say Dave was right. The Chiefs play all three of those other teams,

and they get all of them at home. That is so rigged. As it should be. It's so rigged. As it should be. It's so rigged. As it should be. They get the Eagles, Bengals, and the Drones. You got to beat the champ. Okay, beat him at that.

Do you have to beat him at that place? You do, obviously. Sean McVay, why can't I talk? It's Sunday night. I guess things are a little different now. Sean McVay said that... Is that a Freudian slip animazer? McVay? Why would it be? You're calling him a bay.

No. Says that Tutu Atwell will have a role this season. Anybody draft that? Yeah, I believe that. He had a role last season, too. I guess implying a fairly substantial role? Yeah. a fairly substantial role? Yeah.

Like a Kaiser role? I don't think that's going to go at well. Okay. Too touché. And final note here about a top five quarterback, perhaps. Daniel Jones got on stage and he sang. I thought, we're doing a show on the top five quarterbacks. Finally, we'll do a show where we don't talk about Daniel Jones. Nope.

He got on stage and he sang with a country singer, Zach Bryan. I don't know who that is, but he did it. I saw the video. He sang. Dave, what do you think the regularity is that other quarterbacks in the NFL have interactions with celebrities or sing at concerts? Singing at concerts probably doesn't happen that often, but having celebrities and stuff like that, yeah, I think that happens. or sing at concerts? Singing at concerts probably doesn't happen that often,

but having celebrities and stuff like that, yeah, I think that happens. I think they've got celebrity friends. Mahomes is about to golf with Steph Curry and somebody else, Clay Thompson. I'll put it in the notes. But listen, I saw this on CBSSports.com on our NFL arena. There's an article.

It says, look, Daniel Jones' performance with Zach Bryan. So don our NFL arena. There is an article. It says, look, Daniel Jones performance with Zach Brian. So I don't blame me. Um, promotion. We've got our eBay store up. We've got, I got the URL for you right now. Go bid on some zoom calls with our guys.

Tiny URL.com slash FFT. Donate tiny URL.com slash FFT. Donate, check it out. Bid on some cool stuff. You can check out our other podcasts as well. Not through the eBay store, but at cbssports.com

slash podcasts. Subscribe to Paramount+. I think I'm being a good company man now. Love Paramount+, though, by the way. It is awesome. Love, love, love

Paramount+. Watching Joe Pickett right now. Season two. Very good. Oh, never heard of it. We needett right now. Season two. Very good. Oh, never heard of it. We need a new show to watch here in this house. Mayor of Kingstown.

Oh, so good. So good. Consensus top five. I don't know what's wrong with me. Consensus top five quarterbacks. They are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson at four, and Justin Fields at

five. This is six points per passing touchdown league rankings. Yes. It's a little bit different now. Now all three of our guys have Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts in some order. Jamie goes Mahomes, Allen Hurts. Dave goes Mahomes, Hurts, Allen. And Heath goes Mahomes, Allen, Hurts.

Then number four is Lamar Jackson for Heath and for Jamie. It's Burrow for Dave. Number five is Fields for everyone. Really, it's the same top seven for everybody. It's Mahomes Allen Hurts, Jackson Fields, Burrow, Herbert in some order. But the big difference would be Burrow four for Dave and Jackson six and the exact opposite for Jamie and Heath.

Jackson four and Burrow six. So we should start there, I guess. No, we should start with this series of questions. What was your toughest decision when ranking your top five quarterbacks? Weighing the upside of Fields and Jackson because of their rushing versus Burrow, who doesn't really

run that much, but can get you around 24-25 fantasy points per game when he's throwing to his healthy receiving core. I was going to say exactly that. Ranking those three quarterbacks was by far the most difficult part of the top five. Yes. I guess we should start there then.

Let's expand on that a little bit. And Dave, what led you to keep Burrow in a six-point-per-passing touchdown league ahead of Fields and Jackson, whereas Heath goes Jackson, Fields, Burrow? I just love how consistent Burrow's been over the last two seasons. I think we can all agree he's got a fantastic arm. That's an offense that's going to continue leaning on it. 26.3 fantasy points per game in six point per passing touchdown leagues. Don't see him slowing down at all.

I know that there's rushing upside with Lamar Jackson. We've been saying exactly that since his MVP season, he hasn't come close to reaching that level. And I don't know if he's really come close to reaching that level. And I don't know if he's really come close to reaching 26 fantasy points per game since that MVP season. And Justin Fields, we'll talk about him. There's a lot to say about him. He's got that kind of upside, but I think he's going to fall around that 24 point range himself. So I think Burrow's got the most upside of the three. Going to take the chance of him not getting hurt.

Hopefully Chase takes a step forward. We definitely like Chase as a contender to be the number one receiver in fantasy. And T. Higgins is an outstanding number two receiver in an offense that's going to continue to let Burrow just chuck it all over the place. Yeah, I've got Burrow projected for more than these two guys and I've got if I was just ranking floor I would definitely have Burrow higher but I don't agree that he has the most upside I think we saw Lamar Jackson still had that upside last year when he and Mark Andrews were both healthy.

I do think it'd be pretty easy, and I can take a couple seconds here to do it when we talk about the other quarterbacks, but I think there's been multiple stretches of healthy play from Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews where he's been in that 26.5 point range. The problem's been that there haven't been enough length of that health. I think Todd Monken's offense is probably going to help with that. I expect Lamar to have his best season as a passer this year. Fields is going to have his best season as a passer. And I just, I believe both Lamar and Fields possess the ability to get to that 30 point per game mark that we've seen Lamar already reach. Actually, it was 32, I think, for him, which is not reasonable, but 30. 31.5 in 2019. I don't think that Burrow can do that.

Yeah, just remember with Lamar Jackson, each of the last two years he has played a game in which he has played 10 snaps and then left the game with scoring fewer than two fantasy points to end his season. And that's really hurt him in the per-game averages. However, even if you remove those games, he still, I don't think he's gotten to 25 points per game on average in any of the last three seasons after being well over 30 points per game in his MVP

season to four years ago. What changes next question, what changes in a four point per passing touchdown league in terms of your rankings? Yeah, I think you, you can't resist the running quarterbacks as much there. And so moving up, the upside of Fields and Jackson ahead of Burrow,

completely get that. But does it move Mahomes down a little bit? I would drop Mahomes to three. Yeah, I think it does. I think it's that much of a difference, the fact that each touchdown is worth two-thirds in that league compared to other leagues. Just drop some Mahomes down.

Those rushing touchdowns, I think they're still going to be there for Hurts. I think they're going to pretty much be there for Allen. And Jackson and Fields will still do better than your typical quarterback, obviously. So it's enough for them to move up. How about this last question? Why not just do a five-point-per-passing touchdown? I don't have a problem with that.

But in that type of format, I might as well just keep everything the way that it is. I know a lot of leagues do that. I actually do have two more questions for you. They're very easy. In your top five, or let's say top six, who has the most upside and who has the most downside?

Hmm. Mahomes and Fields. Have the most upside and downside? Mahomes has the most upside. Fields has the most downside for me. I'm going to say Jackson has more downside than Fields. I think the guy that has the most upside

is Josh Allen. I'll tell you two, you know, I asked you guys what the toughest decision you had to make in your top five. I'll throw just two more topics out there, and I'll do it right after this quick break. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties,

and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the orcga 2023 dirt report all right welcome back we're talking about the top five quarterbacks of the consensus top five are mahomes alan hertz lamar jackson and justin fields that would be the average in the rankings between heath dave and jamie the differences as i've mentioned, Mahomes, Allen, Hertz are top three in some order. But Burrow is four for Dave. Fields is five. Jackson is six.

And Herbert is seven. And for Heath and Jamie, it goes Jackson four, then Fields five, then Burrow six, and again Herbert seven. So two other things that I thought would have been difficult is just being uncomfortable having to rank Justin Herbert seventh. I know we're talking about the top five here, but this is a guy who was QB three just two years ago or two seasons ago. You don't want to downgrade him too much to put him behind an unproven player like Justin Fields, for example, or a guy who hasn't, you know, as Dave has mentioned about Lamar Jackson, hasn't really reached that.

He hasn't come close to what he did four years ago. So, Heath, you know, was that a struggle putting Herbert seventh? No, no. I think he was bad enough last year that it's not. There's the new offensive coordinator, which we think will be good for him, but that's another change that we have to see how that works out. I don't think like Burrow that he has the upside that Jackson and Fields do, but he definitely has a lower floor than Burrow does.

So I think he fits behind those guys. Dave, how could someone justify ranking Justin Fields ahead of Lamar Jackson, which you do by one spot? And I kind of want to be there because I'm a little frustrated with Lamar Jackson, which you do by one spot. And I kind of want to be there because I'm a little frustrated with Lamar Jackson. But if you just think of them, their profiles, you know, it's almost like you're asking, you're just hoping Fields becomes him. So justify ranking Fields ahead of Jackson. I think he might end up being a better passer. I think his numbers might be better in that area. And I think his rushing will be as good,

if not maybe even a little bit better, than Lamar's. Both of these teams, the Bears and the Ravens, want to protect their quarterback, and they're making changes to their offenses so that their quarterbacks don't run all over the place. I think the Ravens are a lot more defined based on what they've done this offseason. They've replenished their receiving core.

On paper, the receiving core looks like a lot of fun, man. Rashad Bateman's back, but he had a cortisone shot in his foot. Odell's there, but he's not the same Odell that he once was. Zay Flowers is an exciting rookie. I loved him at Boston College. Not sure he's going to translate right away to the NFL game. And so if those guys can't come through for Lamar and Lamar's asked to run a little bit less, well, first of all, that should be really good for Mark Andrews. He's an easy call as tight end too. But I wonder if that just kind of sabotages his numbers a little bit because he won't run like we're used to or that we want to see him run on a game-to-game basis. And I also happen to think that they still love J.K. Dobbins, and the reports on him this offseason have been mostly great.

So I wonder if they're going to get him a little bit more involved in this up-tempo offense a little bit, and if that receiving core scares defensive coordinators, it's going to be light boxes, and that's great for a guy who was like number one or number two in rushing efficiency last year. Heath, I'll let you talk about that too. You have Jackson ahead of Justin Fields four and five. One thing I love about Lamar Jackson in the last two seasons, he has ranked first and second in fantasy points on yards alone per game.

Really cool stat there. So, you know, he just needs more touchdowns. But, yeah, you stuck with Jackson ahead of Justin Fields. And, you know, we have a lot of comments about Jackson here. I mean, some people, Lamar's an injury risk. There's another guy who says. I think that's true. Like, I love Lamar, and I still think he's an injury risk. I just don't.

So is Fields, if you're going to say it about one side, say it about the other. Yeah, and I think Josh Allen's an injury risk. I think Jalen Hurts is an injury risk. I just don't. I wouldn't. So is Fields. If you're going to say it about one, say it about the other. Yeah. And I think Josh Allen's an injury risk. I think Jalen Hurts is an injury risk. Josh Allen got hurt last year, I guess. Yeah. Hurts did too.

So did Mahomes, by the way. I feel like Mahomes, he did in the playoffs, but I feel like Mahomes has missed more games than Allen. For sure, right? Probably so. But as we saw with Josh Allen last year, playing through it doesn't necessarily mean being the same guy. Yeah.

So I think it's good that he played through it, but we saw that with Cam Newton. I hate to keep bringing up Cam Newton when talking about Josh Allen, but this is about the time in Cam Newton's career where things started to crumble. And he played through a lot of injuries, poorly, and got roasted for his performance. I think these teams are trying to avoid that, though.

You did get a little off track. That's okay. My only concern about Lamar is the injuries. I think if he's healthy, between Bateman and Flowers and maybe a little bit of Beckham. The receiving core and, of course, Mark Andrews is the best by far he's ever had.

He will put up not probably his best passing season because I think we forget about how good he was as a passer in 2019. He's probably not going to have a 9% touchdown rate ever again. But I do think a very good passing season this year if he stays healthy. I don't know. I don't want to just say that he's going to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, but it's been two years in a row. Well, but that is also

you just have to decide if you think that the lack of touchdowns over the last two years, after two or three years of pretty high touchdown rates. If that's just like he's lost the ability to get into the end zone or if that has something to do with the weapons that were around him. Yeah.

And a little bit of maybe a bad luck. Right. Because you're right. And I generally buy into the yards more than I do the touchdowns. Yeah. Especially from a guy who has produced an insane touchdown rate in the past. I didn't even look at four years ago

when he won the MVP, but in the last three years the quarterbacks, there have been four quarterbacks who have been standouts basically every year in terms of fantasy points based on just yards alone on a per game basis. And they were Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson,

and a guy that has no chance of being discussed today other than this note, Kyler Murray. So those guys get a lot of fantasy points on yards alone. And Kyler's a different case, I think, than Lamar when it comes to passing touchdown rate because outside of having DeAndre Hopkins, he's never been good in that regard. Never, that's true.

Lamar had a couple years where he was insane and then a couple of years where he was awful. And it went in the opposite order than it's supposed to. I want to talk about something that Dave said a few weeks ago on our bust-proof episode and something that he disagreed with when I brought it up again last week. Dave said that he thought Jalen Hurts had the highest floor of any quarterback. Do you remember saying that, Dave? Do you stand by that? I believe your argument was he just he had more weapons than Allen and Mahomes and he has a higher rushing floor. Heath did not agree because his name is not Mahomes. So I get it. I get it. I still believe that Jalen Hurts has the highest floor of the of any quarterback. You know, we have seen Mahomes fall below 25 fantasy points per game

in half of his last four seasons. And, I mean, Jalen Hurts did too. I mean, we're basing Hurts off of one amazing year where he could have been the MVP the year before that. He was at 22 fantasy points per game. I think that Philadelphia is the one team where they look at their quarterback running and they say, oh, yeah, we want more of that. We're not going to try and limit that. And their actions, even Smith, they said Miles Sanders can hit the road.

His 11 touchdowns are gone. They've replaced him with DeAndre Swift and Rashad Penny, and they're keeping Kenneth Gainwell. If they wanted to try and run the football more, I think they would have dedicated more resources to that. And because they didn't, that tells me that they're very, very comfortable with letting Jalen Hurts run it just as much this coming year as he did the previous year. And they love what he can do when they're bellied up to the goal line as well. And then I think about their defense, two new starting linebackers, two new starting safeties, a lot of youth on that defensive line, a lot of youth on that defense overall. I wonder if maybe the defense won't be quite as good as it was last year, paired with the first place schedule that Philadelphia has,

and maybe it means more competitive games, which means more opportunities for Jalen Hurts to rack up yards on the ground, through the air, lots of touchdowns. Yeah, I'm good with saying that he's got the safest floor of any of these quarterbacks. Yeah, I just think this argument would make more sense to me if Jalen Hurts did what he did last year twice. Because we saw it with Lamar after he had that spike year. We even saw it with Mahomes after he had his spike year. We saw it with Josh Allen after he had that spike year. We even saw it with Mahomes after he had his spike year. We saw it with Josh Allen after he had his spike year. I'm expecting that Jalen Hurts is going to come back to earth a little bit in some of the ways that he took a big leap last year. I think you look at the 13 rushing touchdowns in 15 games, I think there's probably a significant drop-off

there in the number of rushing touchdowns that he throws. I think you look at he made a pretty big leap to eight yards per pass attempt as a passer. We saw Lamar make that type of leap. I think he probably comes back a little bit in the passing efficiency as well. So I think his floor is more removed from what he did last year than Dave seems to think. How many passes per game do you have him projected for? Well, I can tell you I have him projected for 533 passes, and he threw 460 in 15 games. Yeah, so even you're giving him 70 more pass attempts.

Well, I think he's going to play two more games. Yeah, okay. Not that many more. That's higher numbers. I'm good with all that stuff. So even if his efficiency drops a little bit and he's not the machine that he was last year, I think he still comes through.

Okay. I love taking him as the second quarterback off the board. I'm good with that. And if I can get him as the third quarterback off the board, it feels like I'm ripping off the rest of the league. The funny thing about that is with the way that our drafts go it doesn't seem like you get a whole lot of choice from the time that one of those guys goes oh yeah it's like four picks and they're all gone and and

I think that will happen in like every draft every home league regardless of when the first quarterback goes you know it's like it's like an alarm goes off when one of the managers decides, all right, I'm going to be the first to take a quarterback. The manager's picking right behind him. We're going to say, well, this is it. This is when I've got to go and get one of those other quarterbacks too. I think you're going to see that in every single league this year. The only time that you're going to be able to choose, I think,

between the three of them, Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, is if you have the third overall pick and you get to the second round and none of them are gone, and then you can just say, okay, I'm going to not take a quarterback here, and then the next two players, the next

two managers are going to take either none of them or both of them, and I'll have one of the three remaining with my next pick. But that's really the only time that's going to happen, I think. Alright, who should be QB1? You guys all have Mahomes.

Everybody has Mahomes. Dave, Jamie, Heath, they all have Mahomes. Do you feel super strongly about that? I think he's the safest. If I were to admit that... I thought Hertz was the safest. Well, no. I said he had the safest floor. I said he had the safest because if if if i were to admit that hurts was the safest well no i said he had the he had the safest floor i said he had the safest floor i think mahomes has the next safest floor i think mahomes has made it very obvious we can say two out of the last three seasons he's averaged

over 29 fantasy points per game i think he's been a top four fantasy quarterback on a per game basis for the last five seasons he's got really good. So I don't have a problem with saying that Mahomes is like very safe floor and sky high ceiling. And they're just, there aren't a lot of quarterbacks out there that we can say that about. There's literally three. I just, I just won the Jalen Hurts doesn't have the highest floor argument, right? Kind of. I just won that argument, at least, right? No, I said that Mahomes has the second highest floor. Okay, right.

But that's not – having a high floor and huge upside applies to all three of those guys. It's true. So, you know, I actually think it's an easier case to make for Allen to be QB1 because he was better than Mahomes in 2021. Technically, he was better than him in 2020 as well, but not on a per-game basis. On a per-game basis, Mahomes was one spot better. Allen had a better 2021 season, and Allen was better in 2022 before his elbow injury.

But that's like week eight, right? Yeah, but I mean, it's such a stark week. Okay, I just want to say if we're going week one through eight, Lamar Jackson was averaging 26 fantasy points per game last year. So we should give him credit for that. Well, that's not nearly as good as what Alan was averaging. No, but we've been talking about Lamar Jackson hasn't been better than 25 fantasy points per game three years in a row.

But it was an injury. It wasn't just a random point this season. Yes, Mark Andrews got hurt week nine, right? Sure, but yeah. But Lamar Jackson had— Do you know what would resolve all this, Adam? What? You had six months where there was no football,

and we were doing two and a half or three shows a week. And if you put together the giant book of Azerstats, then we would know who was actually better. But listen, but still, he wasn't nearly as good as the other guys. Alan was still better than Mahomes before he hurt his elbow. I can still do it. I think I'd probably take Mahomes first because he's Mahomes. But actually, this is how I feel. In a four-pointer passing touchdown league, I'm definitely taking Allen. You guys already said you'd have Mahomes third. Six-pointer passing touchdown league, I don't know. If I had three teams, I'd probably take three different quarterbacks.

It's 1A, 1A2, and 1A3. Not even B and C. But again, I do think it's a pretty compelling case for Allen to be ahead of Mahomes because he really has been, over the last three years, he's just been better, right? I mean, if you look at points per game over the last three years, I'm assuming he's been better than Mahomes

because Mahomes wasn't great in 2021. 29.1, 26.9, and 28.4. Okay, those were Allen's numbers. he was behind Mahomes by.3 in 2022 ahead of Mahomes by 2 points per game in 2021 and

behind Mahomes by 7 tenths of a point per game in 2020 so if he wasn't ahead of him he was barely behind him he was ahead of him over the last 3 years and then who else behind him. He was ahead of him over the last three years. And then who else?

I don't really think I can make an argument for Burrow as QB1. I just looked it up in our Fantasy Football Today League. Over the last three years, Josh Allen, 29.23 fantasy points. Patrick Mahomes, 29.18. So five hundredths of a point

difference between the two of them. I bet if you remove the game that Mahomes left early with an injury, it might be. For sure. That was, I think that was, I actually, I don't,

I think that was 2019. Sorry. I don't actually think that was before. Um, all right. I don't know that I can make an argument for anyone else. Can you fields Jackson? I don't think you can for burrow.

Really? It's just going to score, have to score a ton of anyone else. Can you? Fields, Jackson? I don't think you can for Burrow, really. He's just going to have to score a ton of touchdowns. Herbert, I don't think so. No, I can't do it with a straight face for any of those guys. Fields or Jackson? No. Not with a straight face.

I mean, I could make the same case for Justin Fields that I made for Jalen Hurts last summer that he could be the same case for Justin Fields that I made for Jalen Hurts last summer, that he could be the number one quarterback. It's not hard to make that case. It's just that it's really unlikely. The guy that we haven't talked about at all that's not in our top five

that I also think you could make the case for is Tua. No, I think you mean Trevor. No, I mean, well, Tua plays 17 games with Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell. Sure. I would expect him to be in the top three discussion for sure. But they're not better than Ridley and Kirk. Are you kidding? Yes, I'm kidding.

I mean, sorry. Tua, Lawrence, Dak? But don't you... No. Dave? Heath? Would you agree that if they both stayed healthy, Tua's more likely to be a top three quarterback than Lawrence?

Yes. Okay. I don't think I agree with that. Yep. I know you don't. Yeah. I mean, is everyone on the team healthy? Just Tua and Lawrence is all I guarantee you get right but is Tyreek more

likely to get hurt than Calvin Ridley no but Teron Armstead's more likely to get hurt than anyone he's gotten hurt every single year of his career and the numbers the numbers with and without Teron Armstead are startling startling what did he put up in that game against San Francisco it was awful in that game was he

yeah yeah but just the pressure there was that first touchdown that was like Startling. What did he put up in that game against San Francisco? It was awful in that game. Was he? Yeah. Yeah, but just the pressure. There was that first touchdown that was like a lucky break for them. I remember that play. I hope he was awful. I said it with such conviction. The game against San Francisco. I'm not sure.

Are you looking it up for me? I'm seeing it here. Oh, 17.8 points per game, man. Okay. Terrible. Yeah, he had, what, 17.8 points per game, yeah. Okay. Yeah, he had, what, like a 75-yard touchdown pass on the first plays of the game. On the first play to Shurfield. Yeah. Just, like, completely wasn't covered.

He had 295-2-2 in that game. Yeah, not awful. You set me up, and I just went for it. Anyway, I think that's... And a fumble loss. It was not a great fantasy game. Three turnovers. Any questions from the crowd?

Now is the time to ask them any quarterback questions. I will read some of your comments after this break on Fantasy Football today. All right, we are back. We are wrapping up our show. Top five quarterbacks. On Tuesday, Dynasty Talk. On Wednesday, top five running backs. On Thursday, top five wide receivers.

When is top five kickers? I'm just going to let everybody guess what the Friday show is going to be. Let's see what some of these comments are. Terry has some rankings. He says, Jalen Hurts, one. Mahomes, two. Fields, three. Lawrence, four.

Josh Allen, five. Lamar Jackson, six.ts, one. Mahomes, two. Fields, three. Lawrence, four. Josh Allen, five. Lamar Jackson, six. Seven, Herbert. Eight, Burrow. Nine, Dak. Ten, McCousins. So Allen, five. Burrow, eight.

Those would be the headliners here. He does not think that Josh Allen has good weapons. I think the Bills want to preserve Josh Allen. This is another team that I think wants their quarterback to run less. And I think that they want to try and diversify their offense a lot more. That's what the

offseason told me. Adding Damian Harris, not that Damian Harris is going to be this amazing fantasy running back, but he will help their run game. He will help give Ken Dorsey confidence to call more running plays. And I think Dalton Kincaid is going to be terrific as somebody who can take a short throw from Josh Allen when a play breaks down and turn it into a nice game. And that's a play that Josh Allen won't have to use his legs on. I'm a little bit fearful for all these quarterbacks that they won't run crazy like they have in the past.

The one that I feel like won't do that is Hurts. Okay. I mean, and I basically got that directly from the Bears. About what? About fields. That he won't run as much. They believe that the better protection on the offensive line and the addition of DJ Moore will make it easier on him to complete passes

and not have to scramble when a play breaks down. Half of his rushing yards last year came on scrambles, basically. But they're not going to do away with designed run plays for him. I don't think there will be as many. I think there might be like four or five a game. I'll just say across the board, if Lamar fields, Allen, any of these guys run significantly less,

I think they're going to be worse. Well, yeah. Allen, though, at least we do have a year of 2020 where he ran for like 440 yards or something like that, which is well below what he's done each of the past years. He's been over 700 yards, and he was QB3 per game, QB2 overall, something like that, which is well below what he's done each of the past years. He's been over 700 yards, and he was QB 3 per game,

QB 2 overall, something like that. He was still incredible. 28.4 fantasy points per game. Yeah, so at least we have that from Josh Allen. He didn't run less. He just had a career low yards per carry that year. He still had a bunch of touchdowns, right? Yeah. Rushing, he's been between 6

and 9 rushing touchdowns every year. Yeah. Rushing, he's been between six and nine rushing touchdowns every year. Nice. And passing, he's been two years in a row at least 35 or more. I don't know what he was that year. Jared Bowling says, if Josh Allen finishes in the top five quarterback this year, I'll eat my hat. What is all this? Josh Allen is

the man. What's going on, everybody? He's been top four each of the past three seasons. There's a feeling I've seen on Twitter also that some people think that the Bills have kind of peaked. Well, I kind of, I mean, I sort of feel that way because their defense, I think it's on their defensive side, not their offensive side. It's going to be really interesting with Allen and with Jackson.

Jackson's already not been able to stay healthy, but how long can these guys play like this and not be affected by all the hits they take? Yeah. That's why these teams are trying to change it up, man. I mean, how many quarterbacks have taken as many hits as Josh Allen did and lasted? Can we talk about Daniel Jones already, says Don? I don't think he has top five upside. Top six, maybe.

Top five, no. We talked about Daniel Jones already. We did. We did. Let's see. Captain Spock points out, I think we already put this up, that Tua was number one in yards per attempt. Oh, you did. Adjusted yards per attempt, deep ball completion rate.

Yeah, he was great. He was great. And he was a good deep thrower even before Tyreek Hill came to town. He ran for 70 yards. I mean, he is not quite Tom Brady who ran for a negative one yard last year. But last season, Tua gave you almost nothing as a rusher. So that cannot be overlooked. Whereas Trevor Lawrence, Trevor Lawrence could rush for 200 more yards than Tua gave you almost nothing as a rusher. So that cannot be overlooked. Whereas Trevor Lawrence, Trevor Lawrence

could rush for 200 more yards than Tua. That's nothing small. Tua has like 4,500 yard potential. 4,500 yard, 35 touchdown. My bold prediction was 5,040. Honestly, it's possible.

But he's got to be on the field for 17 games. And I'd also like to say that I've been taking Mike White in a lot of best ball leagues that I've been in. Just throwing that out there. All right, let me see if I have any emails to read here for a few more minutes to end this podcast. I'm surprised you don't want to know more about fields from minicamp or are you just going to read it in the magazine?

Go ahead. I didn't know there was more to discuss. I was impressed with his footwork, his mechanics. That's definitely gotten better. I felt like most practices he'd make every single easy throw, but randomly be off target. And for every off target, ugly interception or tip ball that he had,

he had an amazing throw. There was one throw that he had on the last day of practice. I think it was, no, it was the second to last day of practice where DJ got behind two corners, including Jalen Johnson and field just placed it perfectly over his right shoulder and into his hands would have been a touchdown, just like a deep bomb touchdown. So Fields just placed it perfectly over his right shoulder and into his hands. Would have been a touchdown.

Just like a deep bomb touchdown. So he's got it in him. It's the inconsistency. And I asked around with a bunch of reporters that are there, and they said it's been the same thing for him, maybe a little less so this offseason, that they've seen throughout his time there. So inconsistent thrower in an offense that wants to try and rein him in as a runner.

I think he can average still 24 fantasy points per game. I think he could still be good. The average, I asked three different beat reporters, how many rushing yards do you think he'll get? None of them said 1,000. Two of them said 700. One of them said 800. So, if we're expecting 750 rush yards i don't know how many

sorry i don't buy that you know when he was at his best last year he was averaging almost 100 rushing yards per game they don't want him to do that i know that but this is that's cutting it in half here we're talking about so look how many times we hear lamar jackson's gonna run less i actually believe it this year because they changed their coordinator and they brought in these wide receivers. But we always hear this about quarterbacks that run the ball. But they run the ball. That's what they do.

That's what they're good at. He's not going to have – I don't think he'll have fewer than 800 rushing yards. Do you? I think he'll fall a little bit shy of that. I've got him at 932. Okay. He can be in that range and still finish as a top five fantasy oh yeah obviously and having dj more like he is absolutely in sync with dj more and i think when

darnell mooney's healthy mooney didn't practice claypool didn't practice i think once mooney's back they're optimistic they'll be ready for camp i think he'll be in rhythm with him too claypool is the one. I think Kmet might have a better year than Claypool. Okay. I find it so funny, all these people talking about, not all these people, but some people talking about Josh Allen's weapons. Sorry, changed topic here.

Do we think that Patrick Mahomes has better weapons than Josh Allen? I think you forget how much Gabe Davis hurt people last year. He had the best year of his career and finished as wide receiver 35 and he's like wide receiver 45 in consensus rankings now. Everybody hates him because he let them

down. Yeah, and Allen still was amazing. And so I think people really think he's bad and Allen still was amazing. And so I think people really think he's bad, and that's mostly it. They replaced Isaiah McKenzie with Dalton Kincaid. It's a really good receiving core in Buffalo.

The Bills maybe have a better tight end than the Chiefs now. Oh, stop it. You know what? He's not even a tight end. He's going to play wide receiver, and he's not even a tight end he's gonna play wide receiver and he's gonna punt and he's gonna play running back he's gonna be the first rookie ever with 2 000 touchdowns all right i'm gonna put some bills bets down here

uh i guess i still read a couple emails here how about a question from Joshua? I usually get the last pick for some reason in my league every year. If everyone I really want is gone by my pick, should I grab a top-tier quarterback and another high-end player at the 1-2 turn? By the way, you guys are the reason I won my league last year. Thank you, Josh. Nice.

What do you think is relevant for today's show? You're not going to get Mahomes, Allen, or Hurts with your third pick if you have the last pick in your draft. So can you reach for them at the 1-2 turn? You might get Burrow, Fields, Jackson, Justin Herbert. I personally will not take one of these quarterbacks with a top 15 pick in a one-quarterback league. I will go for one running back or one wide receiver,

maybe even two wide receiver. Maybe even two wide receivers. It depends who's left. It's going to be a best player available thing for me when I'm picking that late in round one and early in round two. No. Okay. This is from Bads

from Calgary, Canada. I don't know what to do with Derek Carr. It seems like no matter the situation, the absolute best he can possibly put up is 250-2. I want to believe with Olave and the easiest schedule, he can finally put up at least some games

in the top seven to perhaps have some utility in late rounds of best ball tournaments, but I just can't believe. After all, adding maybe the best wide receiver in the NFL in Devontae Adams still didn't add a damn thing to his ceiling. Can you talk about his situation?

Derek Carr? I think that you seem to have like you, you started off saying you don't know what to do with David Carr. And it's, it sounds like, you know, exactly what's going on with car. I,

he's a, he's not a top 24 quarterback for me, but for most people, he's a low-end starter in a 2QB league. I think he might possibly get through over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. He might sneak into the top 18 fantasy quarterbacks if everything goes right and a few guys get hurt. I'd rather draft sam howell i wouldn't rather draft sam howell sam howell could get bench teeth then what good is he yeah um i would guess i mean i guess maybe in a 2qb league that's why you'd rather have car but in my best ball league i'd

rather have how in the best ball league i think i'd rather have neither do but in a best ball league, I'd rather have Hal. In a best ball league, I think I'd rather have neither. Do you know the last time he had over 20 fantasy points per game? Sam Hal is the only entire start ever. Oh, well, I was talking about Derek Carr. 2016 with Crabbe. 2016.

Oh my God, I got it. You nailed that one, Adam. Let's go, yeah. I didn't know what Tua did against the Niners, but you knew Derek Carr was good. I mean, Tua was not that good after the first one of the game. He was not. That's fair. Yeah, it feels like Carr is going to be the same guy. I hate to say it because I like the receivers that are in New Orleans.

He might be worse. He might be worse. Yeah, I think he might be worse. Listen, if they just, listen, if they just do the same thing they've done the last three years and throw the ball 510 times, he's probably going to be bad.

Bad. Bad. I'm going to leave you all with some Teron Armstead stats, okay? Oh, good. Here's Tua. Perfect way to end a top five quarterback show. Here is Tua with and without Teron Armstead.

With Teron Armstead on the field. This is their left tackle, Dolphins left tackle. 65.7% completion rate. Without him, 56.8% completion rate. That's amazing. Yards per attempt, great, both with and without him. 8.9, 8.6. Touchdown rate, 6.5% with Armstead on the field, 4.5% without.

Interception rate, 1.7% with, 4.5% interception rate without. How about the sack rate? This one's 3.5% sack rate. That's sacks per drop rate for drop back. 3.5% for Tua with Armstead on the field. He was sacked on 15.4% of his dropbacks without Armstead. The pressure rate went from 24.5% with Armstead on the field to 35.3% without.

And the negative play rate, I don't exactly know what that was, but negative play rate, 6.3% for Tua with Armstead on the field, 21.6% with him off the field. That is a franchise left tackle who has missed four or more games in six of ten seasons, including two straight. Just something to keep in mind.

How many, was there a complete game that Tua played without Teron Armstead last year Yeah he missed I want to say San Francisco and the Chargers at least Let me see San Francisco he played against the Chargers 100% of the snaps Armstead did

Okay So I can look at his game log They basically both missed week 5 and week 6 Houston Houston I can look at his game log. They basically both missed week five and week six. Houston Houston it looks like Armstead left halfway through. So maybe one and a half games. Would it make you feel any better

knowing that they've got as many as four possible players on their team that could replace Armstead in a pinch? They've had such... Oh, they're stiffs. These are the stiffiest stiffs you've ever stiffed. It wouldn't make me feel good at all. Isaiah Wynn is as good as it gets.

Former first-round pick, Isaiah Wynn. You're saying most of those stats are the San Francisco game. Almost, yes. And Houston, if you'll remember, was the sneakiest good team against quarterbacks in the NFL last year. Yeah, but two have only played... Actually, that was it. That was what happened.

I remember this. They were blasting Houston. And then when Armstead left, he got his butt kicked all over the place. And then they were like, that's it, he's out. And they pulled two in the third quarter. So I remember talking about that on the show. So Armstead played until halftime.

So it was basically one drive that you're remembering. No, it was more than one drive in the third quarter, I'm pretty sure. But if you go look at the pressure rate with and without in just that game. No, I believe you. I'm just saying that the sample size without Teron Armstead is one and a half games. And one of them was against San Francisco. No. What about the...

Yeah, he didn't play in that game. I mean, that's true. But those are startling numbers. And if he misses time, it's going to hurt to a tongue-in-cheek. Yeah, but maybe not to that degree. No, not to that degree. Right.

Okay, we're out of here. Thanks for watching and listening, everybody. We will talk to you on Tuesday with Heath's Dynasty Show. See you then.