Fantasy Football Today - Top 5 Quarterbacks! Hurts Ahead of Brady!? (06/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 21, 2022

How do the Top 5 QBs measure up with the rest of the group? Are they clearly ahead, or does it make sense to wait for the next tier? We start with that plus some fun quotes (4:40) and our Stat of the Day (7:45) which looks at how the Top 12 QBs performed in 2021 based on yards alone ... Jamey and Heath have similar Top 5 lists, and they're answering questions about those QBs including which one has the most upside (11:10), how the rankings change in 4-point per passing TD leagues (13:40), which Top 5 QB has the most downside (14:30) and more. Then we go through them individually starting with Josh Allen (15:45), Justin Herbert (19:05) and Patrick Mahomes (24:00) ... Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson (29:30) are also in the Top 5. Why are they ahead of Russell Wilson and Tom Brady? We also have some TV and movie takes (35:40) and a lot of news and notes (37:30) to tell you about including some sleepers that are emerging ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. It is top five week, and today it's quarterbacks. We'll talk about the top five quarterbacks for Jamie and Heath, which are the same exact five players in a slightly different order. So it's not going to be much of a debate show, but we'll just talk about them in general, pros and cons. We could debate Dave. We could debate Dave's a little bit different i know he has tom brady in there um and that is it and he has brady fifth that's

the only difference here but it's you're gonna see josh allen justin herbert and patrick mahomes they're top three for everyone what's the consensus what's the adp i'll tell you adp in a second for heath number four is lamar jack, and number five is Jalen Hurts. And for Jamie, number four is Jalen Hurts, and number five is Lamar Jackson. When you guys look at your top five, do you think they really stand out from the rest of the quarterback class?

Do you think they should be a priority for fantasy managers? Jamie, how do you see your top five compared to the rest of the group? I think six, seven, and eight are also pretty impressive too you know probably nine also uh maybe 10 maybe 11 13 15 i mean you know it's such a deep position um you know you're you're shooting for who can be number one and i i think there are six guys that could be number one heath what about you? Yeah, I've got Allen, Herbert, and Mahomes all within a point and a half in total projections. And then 10 points below them are Brady, Jackson, and Hertz

all within less than a point. So I've got a little bit of separation. And I was thinking about that. With us doing a mock draft today, it really bothers me a little bit, the way quarterbacks get drafted in our mock drafts and knowing how, um, normal drafts go.

And it really kind of hit its peak when we did our pick by pick, I think last week. And that will show up in the magazine that people will get to see. But I think we should have a rule in our mock drafts where you must take a quarterback within 12. You can't take him more than a round later than his ADP. Who's going to go first? Well, tell me what you think about this ADP

because Josh Allen is number one, Mahomes, Herbert, Joe Burrow number four, which I know we don't agree with, and then Lamar Jackson's five. Jalen Hurts is all the way down at QB nine. But Josh Allen's at 25th. Mahomes and Herbert are basically at 36, end of round three. And then there's no quarterbacks taken until round five,

and that's Joe Burrow, and then Lamar Jackson is at 61. We have several mock drafts where maybe one goes in the first three rounds, but usually none go in the first three rounds. I feel like we're only maybe a round, round and a half behind everybody instead of three rounds. But, you know, in our drafts,

you're going to see a lot of quarterbacks go in the 60s, and that's Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott in NFC ADP since May 1st. That's quarterbacks 5, 6, 7, 8. I don't think we're that far off from this NFC ADP since May 1st. That's quarterbacks 5, 6, 7, 8. I don't think we're that far off from this NFC. Now, maybe this NFC is far off from what general ADP will be. Right. And NFC drafts are a combination of dynasty and best ball

and high dollar, high stakes. Probably not. There will be a lot of difference between those and our ADP in August. Well, I'm looking at the Fancy Pros ADP, and the order is Josh Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Burrow, six here, which is a little bit better. And the overall is Josh Allen, 22, Mahomes, 29, Herbert, 37, Lamar, 49, and Kyler, 57.

So it's usually typically the first quarterback, because once you get past that, that first number, then it starts to kind of settle into where we would say it's not bad. Yeah. You know, it's, it's still early for what most analyst drafts look like,

but it's still not horrible. You know, when you're talking about, you know, rounds five and six for when you're getting your quarterback, that's not bad value by any stretch. It's just seeing Allen in round two or, in case, 25th overall. Okay.

All right, we're going to get into the top five. Then we've got a lot of news, a lot of news to get to. More like reports and not injuries or anything like that. So it's good news. It's interesting stuff. Some quotes, some stats, and your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Quote of the day number one, you got to love this from Justin Herbert. Quote, I feel like I just get bored sometimes without football. End quote. Right on, Justin Herbert. I love it. I know somebody who loves that quote. Who? Pete Prisco. Who wouldn't like

that? I mean, that's great. And he's talking about he doesn't really like to go on vacation. He thinks that football is his vacation. Well, let me ask you this. Because, I mean, obviously, if you love football players, you love to hear stuff like this. But there's the story about Anthony Davis who says he hasn't picked up a basketball since April. He's obviously one of the best players in the league when he's healthy.

Was he a top 75 player? I have no idea. Top 25 ever? No, 75. Was he on the 75 list? I doubt it. I kind of think he should be. He's in the conversation.

Yeah. But he wants to do other things. I mean, it's his time. Yeah. I mean, you love to hear Justin Herbert say that. Yes, Anthony Davis was on the 75th anniversary team. Good. Yeah, okay, quote of the day number two

from Chase Claypool. I know for a fact I'm not like the rest of the guys in the NFL. I know I'm a top five receiver. I know I'm a top three receiver. That was interesting. You like the bravado, whatever. We don't think he's a top three receiver. I know I'm a top three receiver. That was interesting. You like the bravado, whatever. We don't think he's a top three receiver,

but he did say, I thought this was even more interesting from Claypool. My second year, I was a better football player than I was my first year. The plays just didn't work out. Some of the plays didn't go my way. I didn't make some plays I needed to make, but as a football player,

understanding the game, knowing what to do, knowing where to be, I was better. So I'm going to be better this year. All right, Claypool. Go for it. It works out for my third-year receiver story.

That's going to be sometime next week. Yeah, probably you can even put it in a second-year receiver story. I think he's definitely a top-three receiver on the Steelers. He also predicted 1,300 receiving yards and 10-plus touchdowns. So he could be a steal. I think we've said it a lot that he is probably the most held back, or he was probably the most held back by Roethlisberger's inability to throw downfield with a lot of success, right?

So I remember midseason, Sports Illustrated did a breakdown of it, and actually he was the worst. He was really bad on those deep routes. And Roethlisberger was among the league leaders in go routes thrown at that point. I don't know how it ended up turning out. He and Claypool just could not get on the same page. Claypool wasn't really doing anything to win those routes, as I recall. I know it's a little bit fuzzy. It's been months now, but, you know, I wouldn't just, based on that, I remember very well, I wouldn't just... Based on that, I remember it very well. I wouldn't just blame Roethlisberger for it. Plus, Roethlisberger threw a ton, so maybe the percentage of his throws weren't all that deep. I don't know, but he probably threw a decent amount of

deep balls to Claypool. Yeah, I'm sure you're right. It feels like some better quarterback play would help him. Sure, yeah. Okay, like some better quarterback play would help him. Sure, yeah. Okay, speaking of better quarterback play, here is your stat of the day.

If you look at the top 12 quarterbacks per game last year and six points per pass in touchdown leagues, who was number one in terms of fantasy points through yards alone? Remove touchdowns. Who scored the most fantasy points per game? Per game in yards. What do you guys think? Brady? Fantasy points through yards alone. Remove touchdowns. Who scored the most fantasy points per game? Per game in yards. What do you guys think?

Brady? Brady was seventh. Because you're doing passing and rushing yards combined. Yes. Okay. And obviously divided. I know the answer because I gave this stat a lot during the season last year, I think. It was not even close.

He averaged 4.4 more points per game in yards alone than number two, who was Josh Allen. And it was Heath? Lamar Jackson. It was Lamar Jackson. I think he averaged 40 more yards per game last year than he averaged during his MVP season. Two years ago, he, though, was sixth per game

in fantasy points by yards. But I did break that down if anybody's interested. Kyler Murray's been top three two straight seasons in fantasy points

on yards alone. Josh Allen's been top five. Patrick Mahomes has been top four. Lamar Jackson was first last year and sixth in 2021. Just something to think about.

It depends on how much you value touchdowns and all that stuff. And we'll see where they go in our live stream today. Tune to think about. It depends on how much you value touchdowns and all that stuff. And we'll see where they go in our live stream today. Tune in on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasy football today, 1 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday. If you miss it, it'll be on demand. All of our videos, all of our podcasts are on demand. You can watch us, youtube.com slash fantasy football today. Go there and subscribe. But basically,

from this point forward, we're going to have a mock draft every Tuesday at 1 p.m. Eastern. We're going to have special guests on. Today, it's a half PPR draft. Next week, it's going to be a Scott Fishbowl mock draft. Scott Fish, who's in the chat right now, is going to join us next week, and we'll get you set for that. And it's going to be really fun. So please, youtube.com slash fantasy football today. And if you're already here, hit like on the video and hit subscribe. I've been very informal, very business like today. You guys have a nice Father's Day weekend. Nice three day weekend. Very good. Thank you. How about you? No, it wasn't good because you guys didn't wish me a happy birthday. That really hurt. It was your birthday? It was my birthday on Father's Day.

You didn't wish me either. So it was a terrible weekend. Yeah. Did your family know at least? They do, yeah. They do. Good. That's good.

Yeah. I feel terrible. I'm sorry. You should be. In fact, you texted me about fantasy baseball on my birthday. You didn't even say happy birthday. Wow. I feel terrible.

I do not, literally no idea of when anyone I work with's birthday is. Sorry. Maybe if I'm Facebook friends with you, I will see the notification pop up on Facebook, but I'm not Facebook friends with you, I don't think, so. One of these years, Facebook friends. The problem is one of us has to send the friend request.

That's gotta be one of our bets next time we debate a player the loser has to uh send the facebook invite and the winner could decide if he wants to accept it or not all right top five quarterbacks for jamie it's josh allen justin herbert patrick mahomes same for heath same for dave and then four or five or just flip for you guys jamie has Jalen Hurts 4 and Lamar Jackson 5 and Heath has Lamar Jackson 4 and Jalen Hurts 5. Of your top 5 quarterbacks, which one has the most

upside? Which quarterback has the most upside? Lamar? I mean Jalen. Sorry. Jalen Hurts. What? I think it's Lamar. Okay, Jamie, let's talk about this. You have Jalen Hurts ahead of Lamar Jackson. Isn't he just a poor man's Lamar Jackson,

and now he's more upside than Lamar Jackson? Yeah. All right, let's go ahead. Lay it out. Well, I mean, you saw what he was able to do as a passer in the beginning part of last season when they actually allowed him to throw the ball. I think it was 32 attempts per game, if I'm not mistaken uh i'll pull it up in a second

um but if he continues to rush like he did and he throws if he continues to rush like he did the entire season and he throws to the level that he did at the beginning part of the year i think he could come close to doing what lamar jackson did in his mvp season now that's a huge leap obviously he's got to get there but i think think we could see a 4,000, 1,000 type of season from Jalen Hurts. And so the thing that concerns me about Lamar Jackson is who is going to be his receiving core. I mean,

you know, you got the report. I'm sure you're going to say it, that they're going to sign a veteran at some point. Yeah. Who's that going to say it that they're going to sign a veteran at some point yeah who's that going to be you know i mean is it going to be what's left of julio jones is it going to be maybe will fuller doesn't seem like it's going to be beckham who who may not be ready even until november um i just don't know where the the passing numbers are going to come from to support

lamar jackson right now now that could change and obviously i still love him he's top five quarterback um but i think if jalen hurts if everything clicks he's going to be from to support Lamar Jackson right now. Now that could change, and obviously I still love him. He's a top five quarterback. But I think if Jalen Hurts, if everything clicks, he's going to be the best quarterback in fantasy. Yeah, I think that's true of most of the top five. I'll say Lamar just because I'm not sure that this year's version of Rashad Bateman will be any worse than the 2019 version of Marquise Brown. He didn't have a very good receiving core when he was the MVP and the best

quarterback in fantasy. Um, but I think Jay, it's one of those two for me as well. I, I saw a stat and I'll try to get it right. But Jamie said the 4,000, 1,000,

I believe Jalen hurts first quarterback ever with 4,000, 1,000 and his first 20 starts. Uh, uh, by with 4,000, 1,000 in his first 20 starts. By the way, Jamie, it was 34.6 pass attempts per game in his first seven games, at which point he was the number three quarterback per game and four point per passing touchdown leagues, number six in six point per passing touchdown leagues. By the way, to throw a little love to the four point people, how would your rankings, how would your top five change in four-point-per-passing touchdown leagues? Right now, it's Allen, Herbert, Mahomes,

and then either Hurts, Lamar Jackson, or Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts. How would they change in four-point? Hurts, Jackson. No, Allen, Hurts, Jackson. Herbert, Mahomes. I just switched it over to projections. no Alan Hurts Jackson Herbert Mahomes I like I just switched it over to

projections I would probably still rank Alan number one because I'm a coward but projections wise it's Hurts Jackson Alan Herbert Kyler but could you really imagine taking Jalen Hurts over like Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes in a league even if

it's four point, would you really do it? You have to have confidence in him. Well, you probably don't have to, I don't know. I, what is the NFC ADP by the way?

Is it four or six point? Probably a mix. Yeah. I don't, I don't know what the four point ADP will be. Uh, which top five quarterback has the most downside? Jalen hurts.

Yeah. It's Jalen hurts. Okay. Which top five quarterback do you most downside? Jalen Hurts. It's Hurts. It's Jalen Hurts. Which top five quarterback do you think you'll draft the most? Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts. Here's the answer to all questions. Which top five quarterback has a name that

is a subject and verb? Hurts. J? Hurts. Yeah, that hurts. First name says like, huh? Which non-top five quarterback has the most potential to move into the top five before or during draft season? Russell Wilson

for me, that's the one I keep moving up and down. He's sixth right now. I can see Brady also potentially getting Russell Wilson for me, that's the one I keep moving up and down. He's six right now. So I can see Brady also potentially getting there if Godwin is 100%, but it doesn't seem like that's going to be the case. But otherwise, I think it's kind of locked in for me. Yeah, it's Brady, and it would probably take something negative happening for Lamar or Hurts for that to happen. I've actually got Brady projected like half a point better than those two,

but I think they have quite a bit more upside. So I've got them ranked ahead of him, but he's right behind them. All right. So let's talk about these quarterbacks here. Josh Allen's number one. And he has been last year. He was number one per game. And overall in 2020, he was number one in four point number two in six point, but on a per game basis, he was number three in both. But still, that's really tremendous. Obviously, he's going to be the number one quarterback drafted in most drafts, but the yards per carry actually went way up and the rushing yards went way up. 763 rushing yards in 17 games in 2020.

He was on pace for 474 rushing yards on only nine fewer attempts. I'm just nitpicking here, but the passing stats weren't great. The completion percentage was pretty crappy. And the rushing totals really helped him a lot. Is there a hidden downside here with Josh Allen Heath, or is he just super safe and should definitely be QB1?

I don't think he's super safe at all. I mean, even though he is a bigger quarterback, he's still a running quarterback, which gives you more injury risk than the guys that don't run as much, and he takes some big hits being one of those bigger guys. But also, like you said, he's really got one season as a significantly above average efficiency passer. He still had enough volume last year to where he had the yards and the touchdowns, but it wasn't because he had a good yards per attempt or

anything like that. So I think the risk would be that Brian Dable's gone. Sean McDermott doesn't want Josh Allen to run as much, and he's just mediocre as a passer. He's still probably a top six fantasy quarterback, but I don't think he's a surefire top three guy by any stretch. What about you, Jamie? Is Josh Allen super safe, or is there a hidden

downside? Or both? I don't think there's... I mean, yes, he's safe. I don't necessarily look at the downside as a significant detractor to him. You know, I think the only question would be is, do you think that somebody else, and for me it would be Mahomes or Herbert, Herbert Mahomes in that order, have a higher ceiling because of any other of the factors that they're dealing with you know Mahomes being motivated you know he's already talked about the the AFC championship loss still haunts him and you know the new receiving core and trying to send a message to the league that I'm still the best and I'm going to prove it without Tyreek Hill

or Herbert just taking the natural maturation process of a young quarterback you know coming into his own that really hasn't maybe even fulfilled his potential yet, or, you know, his ceiling may have already happened, but the ceiling is still pretty good. And so it's not necessarily a fear of Josh Allen failing because I don't think the things that are around him are a problem. I just think he's kind of established himself as that guy. All right. If you're sitting there going,

well, here's one thing that could change. The rushing touchdowns could go down, and they did go down last year. So the last six games of the season, including the playoffs, Devin Singletary scored eight rushing touchdowns. In those games, Josh Allen had two rushing touchdowns, both in the same game.

But he actually, Josh Allen actually had four carries from inside the five-yard line in that stretch, which is really a lot. Four carries in six games inside the five yard line. And that was with Devin Singletary scoring eight rushing touchdowns in those six games. All right, let's go to Justin Herbert here. And my question for you about Herbert, Justin Herbert, by the way, was number three per game and overall last year. He threw for 5,000 yards. He rushed for 302 yards. And he accounted for 41 touchdowns in 17 games. Heath, how does Justin Herbert get better?

What improves for him? Because he had a pretty damn good season. He threw a ton. What improves for him? Well, I think that's the biggest question. I feel like he's safer than Josh Allen is. But I don't know that he has the same upside that allen or jackson or mahomes or hertz has uh he's been right around 26 fantasy points per game each of

his first two years in the league now he hasn't had the insane efficiency yet he's just at 7.4 yards per attempt so he could have an eight yards per attempt season. And that would, I mean, that'd probably give him an extra 30 points from, uh, from, from yards, or he could have one of those six and a half, 7% touchdown seasons. It's going to have to come through efficiency, I think, because you're not going to see him probably throw a lot more than 672 passes. And I don't think he's going to add a lot of production on the ground either. So he needs to have one of those efficiency spike seasons that we haven't totally seen from him yet.

What do you think, Jamie? How does, how does Justin Herbert get better after a 5,000 yard, 300 rushing yard, 5,000 passing, 300 rushing yard, 41 total touchdown season? I think he just stays the same, to be honest with you. You know, you want to see him stay at this level. Now, you could see another 5,000-yard season with maybe another couple of touchdowns, however it comes. There's going to be a lot of fun games at AFC West, a lot of potential shootouts. As good as these defenses potentially could be with some of the additions that they made,

Chargers included, we saw last year that the offensive line was much more solidified for the Chargers. The aggressiveness of the play caller was a little bit better as well. You know, Brandon Staley not being afraid to go for a fourth down, so giving Justin Herbert some extra chances, which we love to see. I think it comes down to, you know, can Mike Williams stay healthy and play the way he did at the beginning of the season? Can Keenan Allen continue to produce at the high level?

Same thing with Austin Eckler. And then maybe now the addition of another weapon, whether it be Gerald Everett as a more athletic tight end. We have the report about him being used on jet sweeps and different ways that they certainly couldn't use Jared Cook. Or maybe it's Josh Palmer taking that step forward or Jalen Guyton, one of those other receivers. And then you just have some added production coming that way.

But, I mean, Justin Herbert is just coming into his own, which is just so amazing to watch. I'll give you one thing that maybe could improve. He was number one in the NFL in Justin Herbert. Past attempts in goal-to-go situations from the five-yard line are in, or inside, right? So it's goal-to-go at the five-yard line or closer. Justin Herbert led the NFL with 30 pass attempts.

Among all players with 10 or more pass attempts, he was 19th in touchdown rate. So he really struggled. I mean, how many of those bounced off Mike Williams' chest? But, yeah, he could have thrown more touchdowns, right? I mean, 38 touchdowns. Why not 45? He could have that kind of year too

if they keep throwing the ball as aggressively as they did. Most pass attempts, goal-to-go situations inside the five-yard line or including the five-yard line, and he was only 19th in touchdown rate with a minimum of 10 attempts. So that's something that could work in his favor. All right, I think we should take a quick break here. We'll talk about Patrick Mahomes.

You want to know how he did in his career seven games since his breakout season, seven games without Tyreek Hill or with Tyreek Hill leaving early with an injury. How did Patrick Mahomes do? What will that mean in 2022? We'll tell you after this quick break. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit.

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Talking more about the top five quarterbacks here, and we're up to number three, Patrick Mahomes. Number one was Josh Allen. Number two, Justin Herbert. Number three is Patrick Mahomes. So how did he do without Tyreek Hill? Well, I am going to scroll there. He did very well without Tyreek Hill.

So it's seven games in his career with Hill either leaving with an injury or missing entirely. And here are the fantasy points. Six points for passing touchdown leagues. Round it up, round it down. 33, 40, 34, 18, 21, 17, and 30. That is 30 or more fantasy points in four of those seven games. 17 to 21 in three of those games. Well, he just was missing the touchdowns,

but the yards were really good in most of those games. So I would say you look at that, and that's QB1-ish potential. I didn't do the average, but four of seven games with 30 or more fantasy points, he's been terrific. Does that mean anything to you, Jamie, when you look at Mahomes? Because it's even better now. He didn't have MBS. He didn't have Juju Smith-Schuster.

He didn't have Sky Moore in those games. But does that stat at all mean anything to you? Mahomes very good in his career without Tyreek Hill. Yeah, it's very similar to Aaron Rodgers out Devontae Adams. You know, I mean, we see, I think, maybe a heightened sense of awareness for these quarterbacks that they have to play a little bit better when they don't have the playmaking wide receiver on their side.

But I also think it gives them a little motivation of what they have to do as well. And so, you know, I, I think you just kind of understand that they've had a full off season to sort of work this out. You know, there'll be some growing pains. We saw with the chiefs offense a lot last year, for example, you know, there were some growing pains when they added the new players and it took a little bit of time. But I think this is, you know,

something that can invigorate somebody like Andy Reed, who, you know, has seen everything in the league. And now he gets another chance to sort of recreate this offense. And what we saw last year, remember, teams were taking away the downfield throws from them and they had to sort of, you know, do this on the fly. So I think Mahomes will be fine. You know, it's a good group. It doesn't have necessarily the star of the group in terms of the receiving core. Obviously, Kelsey is a star. but in terms of, you know,

can Sky Moore become that guy is Juju still have the ability to be that guy? Can MVS be something different than what we've seen? And so there's, there's a lot to like about what this group can become. And so I think it just keeps my homes at a very high level. So yes, the stat does matter, but you know, I think it's a different offense in a sense entirely because of the new faces. You know,

Heath, I'm going to, I'm going to get fired up here. I'm going to give you an argument. I don't believe it. This is not an Adam Azer actual argument. I'm just going to speak on behalf of concerned fantasy managers. All right.

We don't want Patrick Mahomes. He was QB five on a per game basis last year with Tyreek Hill. He averaged 7.4 yards per attempt. That was way down from his career low. His air yards were extremely low. His 98.5 passer rating was well below his previous career low of 105.3. They took away the deep ball and that was with Tyreek Hill. They're going to be able to defend the Chiefs so much better. They might be able to take away Travis Kelsey this year. I don't want him. You can have him.

He's too bad for me. That 7.4 yards per attempt and 98 passer rating are both better than Justin Herbert's career numbers, and we're taking him after Justin Herbert. So I don't think you should probably make too much out of that. I think there's legitimate reason for concern that without tyreek hill the chiefs will focus a little bit more on the run and my home's efficiency won't be as good and he doesn't run enough and so maybe he should be sixth i i wouldn't discount that but also i still think he's the best quarterback in the nfl and i like jamie said they've they've gone a different direction now.

They've been so concentrated with targets between Hill and Kelsey. And now they have a lot more depth of talent, if not as much elite talent. It makes me really interesting to see what he and Andy Reid do with all those different weapons

that have different skill sets. I think Mahomes could finish anywhere from first through sixth this year, and I wouldn't be surprised. I wouldn't be surprised if he finished lower, though, because Tyreek Hill is a huge deal. And I won't even play the if Travis Kelsey gets hurt game

because that's a little unfair. Do that to any quarterback. But if Kelsey does get hurt, then we're talking big potential problems. But I don't know. If everybody stays healthy all year on every team, I think I see more downside than that because he was QB5 last year per game. He doesn't stand out in rushing.

He's good. 330-ish, whatever it might be, yards. It's good. It's helpful. But it's not Herbert. I'm sorry. It's not Allen. It's not Jackson.

It's not Hurts. It's not Kyler Murray. So I don't know. I think it's pretty easy to make the case that he could finish lower than six per game. Yeah, and that's what generally we see happens, even with younger guys, that this is the direction they've gone, so they're going to continue going this direction. But I give a lot of credit to Allen, Mahomes, Jackson for the fact that they've shown us that 30 point upside. Yeah, he was QB five last year at twenty five point four fantasy points per game.

He was like a seven tenths of a point behind Justin Herbert. But if we're lining up their three best seasons where Herbert's only had two, Herbert's never come close to the two best seasons that Mahomes had. Yep. All right. Let's talk about the four and five. Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. I'm going to be angry guy again. I like this. It just suits me, especially since you guys didn't say happy birthday. Angry fantasy manager who doesn't like your ranking says,

are you kidding? Jalen Hurts is going to get benched. Jalen Hurts has definitely not only the most downside among your top five, as you guys acknowledge, he has the most downside among all top 12 quarterbacks. And Lamar Jackson over the last two years, well, I don't have the stat right now, but per game, he was like number nine in 2020.

And he was actually number 12 in six point in 2020 and number eight in four point. And he would have been number four in four point, number five in six point in 2020 and number eight in four point. And he would have been number four in four point, number five in six point last year. If you remove the game, he got hurt. So I'm even being generous there with Lamar Jackson. And by the way, he lost Marquise Brown. Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews have accounted for about half of his touchdown passes in the last three years. And I don't know that Rashad Bateman is going to be as good as Marquise Brown. Marquise Brown was a big deal for him. And they're going to run the ball a lot more.

And they got J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards back, so that's going to take away more rushing touchdowns. Not more than last year, but more than what we saw the previous two years. So I don't like it. You guys are idiots. You guys suck at this, and they should not be taught. Tom Brady is the best quarterback in football history. He's going to throw the ball.

They led the league in pass attempts last year. You can't rank these guys ahead of Tom Brady. Come on. And Kyler Murray. Yeah. Jamie, by the way, if you're just tuning in, this is not a real argument. This is the devil's advocate. All right, Jamie, respond to all those awesome criticisms.

Very fair criticisms. I think when you're looking for upside, and Heath kind of alluded to this with Lamar Jackson getting to 30 points, Brady can get there as a passer. But obviously, you're drafting these guys, and Kyler falls in this category as well if he could ever stay healthy for a full season. What these guys are able to do as rushers gives them such an edge if they do what they've shown us. Smaller sample size for jalen hurts um lamar jackson's touchdown lock has been a little frustrating the last couple of years um last year

specifically i think you know you're just looking at these guys and and yes losing marquise brown could be viewed as a big deal um you know guys average seven touchdowns a game, a season, excuse me, for the last three seasons. You know, so I'm still banking on them. I'm drafting them with the potential of them reaching their ceiling. And, you know, this is the position you can easily get away with doing that because there are so many good fallback options. And so if you are concerned about Hurts or you are concerned about Jackson and you are, you know, a nervous drafter, like you are Adam, where you have to take the quarterback because you feel

like you're going to miss, um, draft two, you know, but there should still be somebody on waivers that you'll find that you could pick up. If these guys do struggle or go into a little bit of a low, I don't think Hertz is getting benched as much as Gardner Minshew might have a similar upside. If you want to believe that Sargit but I think there's there's a chance that this Eagles offense can be special this Ravens offense can get back to what it is what it has been excuse me brighter last year and that both these guys can be competing to be the number one quarterback in fantasy yeah I mean I think the Hurts concern is valid just because he has the best backup quarterback in the NFL on the team

with him but also like when we've talked about this before Jalen Hurts his first two years in the league maybe not quite in some areas but as a whole just as accurate a passer as Josh Allen and Kyler Murray

or productive yep and now you get to Brown Accurate a passer is Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. Or productive. And now he gets A.J. Brown. Well, just because you guys have the same rankings, and I know this will spark some conversation with Jamie because just this morning he moved Hurts ahead of Russell Wilson, but in a six-point-per-passing touchdown league, I just don't think I could take Hurts over Wilson. But again, I want to see Wilson's rushing totals get back up.

Last year, they were really low. But if you just look at the first four games before the injury, he was on pace for 246 rushing yards, which is pretty low for Russell Wilson. I'd like to see him back in the 350 range. But man, I just feel like he might throw, he really might throw 15 more touchdowns than Jalen Hurts. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I love feel like he might throw he really might throw 15 more touchdowns than Jalen Hurts.

I love Russell Wilson this year. And this is why I'm going to shuffle all these guys around probably another handful of times. I do think that for me, the top three are locked in. But then it's 4, 5, 6, and 7, which is I'll throw Brady in there too. So 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, which is

Hurts, Jackson, Wilson, Kyler, and Brady. And Brady really right now is um i'll throw brady in there too so four five six seven eight which is hertz jackson wilson kyler and brady and brady really right now is just the thought of not having chris codwin to start the season so that's kind of why he's at the spot that he's at but i think all these guys specifically the the running quarterbacks what they give you with their legs if they continue to do that and i don't know if russell's going to do that anymore but i agree with you i do think that he can have that many more touchdown passes than those guys. I do think that we're going to see a spike in pass attempts for him, which is why I, that's the biggest factor for me is that, you know, this is a guy that has never had

the ability to come close to 300 pass attempts and maybe he does. And so if that's the case for him, uh, then we're talking about superstar potential, you know? So, um, that's the hope, you know, that's the hope is that he's, he's there or 400 Then we're talking about superstar potential. That's the hope. That's the hope is that he's there, or 400 past him, excuse me, if he's that type of quarterback. Yeah, I really have absolutely no idea how run-heavy or pass-heavy the Broncos,

because the Packers haven't been particularly pass-heavy the past few years. Rodgers has been monster efficient, and Wilson could be too. He's that good. I do think it's more likely that he has one of those stupid efficiency years passing the ball than his rushing bounces back. He's almost 34 now. Yeah, but he just ran for 500 something yards two seasons

ago, right? Yeah. He did? Yeah. I don't need to bounce back to that. Sorry, 600 pass times. I? We did. Yeah. But I don't need to bounce back to that. Sorry, 600 past him. I don't know what

I'm saying. 250 would be kind of. You know what? That concludes our top five quarterback discussion. We've got a lot of

news and notes to get to, and I'm back to, I want to give some TV and movie takes, if you guys wouldn't mind. Heath, get the thread ready.

I will get the thread ready. All right, you want my TV one TV and movie takes, if you guys wouldn't mind. Heath, get the thread ready. I will get the thread ready. All right, you want my TV one or my movie one first? TV. Okay. Stranger Things is one of the best shows ever made. It has entered that discussion. It might be number two for me. It is so...

I don't think I can put it ahead of Breaking Bad. It's number for me it is so i don't think i put it ahead of breaking bad it's number three it is so good and every season is just getting better and better and season four has just completely blown my mind bam i know jamie hasn't seen it hasn't seen season four yet but he's not yet has it entered that that is that all-time elite discussion yet? It's definitely in the discussion for me. Like I said, I thought the final episode is one of my favorite television episodes ever. That's terrific stuff. My other one, trying to watch some Marvel movies

to be part of the cool crowd. Everybody watches Marvel movies except for me. So I watched Captain America. All right. The original? Yeah, the first one. It's fine. Just all right?

Yeah, just all right. But Thor was amazing. That's the best one I've seen so far. The original Thor. The Thor movies are pretty close. Like, they're probably my favorites. The new one looks fantastic. I know.

Everybody says Ragnarok is great. I'll get to that. But the first Thor is awesome. Yes. Okay. There we go. Those are my movie tags. I guess I'm not going to make the thread.

I found the thread, but I have nothing to add to the thread. Okay, good. Let's do some news and notes. James Robinson not likely to be ready for the start of training camp, according to John Reed of the Florida Times Union. Not a huge surprise and definitely a lot at stake there with his health in terms of how it affects not only Robinson but Travis Etienne. Deshaun Watson could be facing a lengthy suspension.

When do you think we're going to find out about this? Any inclination of when we might get a decision about Deshaun Watson? The article I read said they were trying, they'd like to have it resolved by July 27th, which I think is when their camp opens. Okay. Maybe, maybe,

you know, a little quicker would be nice. The Rams are optimistic about signing Odell Beckham. He may not be quicker for you. What? He'd like it to be done quicker for you. For everyone. You know, I don't know.

One thing I hope is that they're transparent about what they found. You know, that would be helpful. Anyway, the Rams are optimistic about signing Odell Beckham, but he may not be available until October or November. And if you're wondering, thank you to Dave Richard for this, you cannot put him on an IR spot, Odell Beckham or anyone, until they are signed by an NFL team. So if you do a draft and he's still a free agent, you cannot stash Odell Beckham in an IR spot.

If your commissioner allows it, fine, but technically he will not be on IR. There's some Baker Mayfield to Carolina buzz. And maybe it might just turn into salary. How much will the Browns eat of Baker Mayfield's salary? But he could be going to Carolina. James White could start the regular season on the reserve pup list. Which is interesting, Jamie. What do you think

that means for the Patriots running backs? I mean, Pierre Strong is the interesting one, just to see what they do with him, if in fact they do trust him to be that type of guy that James White was. You've noted this, that the first two games he was

heavily involved in the passing game, James White was. There is some thought that if he's not, Strong is not the guy, and White's not ready to go, does Ramondre Stevenson have a bigger role in the passing game? So, you know, I think any absence of James White opens the door for somebody else. And you got to throw Damien Harrison in there as well,

even though he has 23 catches in his career, that those guys will be more involved in the passing game to some extent. And so, you know, it could also help the receiving core. It can help John Smith. You know, maybe they use him more in the backfield and get him more involved that way.

But I would like to see James White healthy because I do think that he would help this offense. I certainly think that he could help fantasy managers in PPR as well. So The Athletic did a piece where they asked each team writer one fantasy question. And some interesting things came out of it.

So I've got, I don't know, about 10 of them, and this could be a full show. So I'm just going to put the onus on you to be quick, to give quick reactions to each of these, and we'll start with Arif Hasan, the Minnesota Vikings reporter. All these are from The Athletic. So Arif Hasan thinks that KJ,

well, first of all, he says they're going to throw the ball more. KJ Osborne could become a high-end flex play and a smart bi-week fill-in. Go. Heath. That'd be bad news for Irv Smith. Okay. Chris Burke of The Athletic for the Detroit Lions says Amonra. It'd be bad for everybody, though.

Chris Burke says Amonra St. Brown will remain the preferred option on short and intermediate passing windows Jamie makes sense looking at the receiving core especially if Jamison Williams is not ready to go but you know you still got a factor in DeAndre Swift and TJ Hawkinson there too so

good that that's the role for ARSB, but I still want to see how heavily involved he'll be. Daniel Popper covers the Chargers. Jamie made a mention of this earlier. He said the Chargers plan to get the ball in tight end Gerald Everett's hands in a variety of ways, including jet sweeps, but they think he can give more athleticism,

more explosiveness out of the tight end position than Jared Cook did. That's Gerald Everett. And he also said that rookie running back Isaiah Spiller has a clear path to claiming the RB2 spot behind Austin Eckler. Heath, thoughts on Gerald Everett? He's a high-end number two tight end that absolutely has top 10 upside. Jordan Roderick, covering the Rams,

thinks Cam Akers will be worked into the passing game more than he was previously and she also mentioned that Akers said he is 100% healthy but she's basically just brushing off what happened with Akers at the end of last year and painted an optimistic picture picture Jamie I think we're all hoping that's the case

that would be the most optimistic view Henderson's dealing with a soft tissue injury in minicamp and Kyron Williams had a broken bone in his foot. So, you know, the main competition for Akers is not exactly 100 percent picture of health right now. And I mean, I think Akers is going to I hope he's going to justify what I think is going to end up being around 380p. Okay, Jeff Howell for the Patriots said that Ramondre Stevenson has impressed everyone in Foxborough this spring, and he should be even more impressive in his second season. He did also say that, you know, he won't overtake Damian Harris in his opinion, but

just a headache. If everyone's healthy, Heath, avoid the Patriots backfield or what? As per usual, yes. I would like to stay away from them. I bumped Stevenson up a couple of spots. He's up to RB44 for me now. But I don't have Harris in my top 36. It's so clear that if you're going to draft one

based on ADP, Stevenson right now is 111th damian harris is 77th well i should that's a little bit later than i thought he might be but is that clear that it should be stevenson i don't like either one of those guys at that adp but i would i'm closer on stevenson than i am on harris Okay, next up, Joe Rexroad for the Titans says that Robert Woods should be the top Titans wide receiver in week one. Jamie, should Robert Woods be the first one drafted? I don't think so, but I think it's similar to what you just said

about the Patriots running backs. If you want a piece of the Titans passing game, take the one that goes later. If Woods is right, he'll be good. He'll be great value, but how much value will either guy bring in this offense? We've got five more. Joe Biscaglia

covers the bills for the athletic. Gabriel Davis is likely to bust loose as the best running mate that Stefan Diggs has had in his now three seasons in Buffalo. What does that mean to you, Heath? Gabriel Davis will bust loose. Bust seasons in Buffalo. So what does that mean to you, Heath? Gabriel Davis will bust loose. I mean, bust is a good word to use there,

because he's going to boom or he's going to bust at his current ADP. I mean, he could be a top 20 guy. It's a little bit scary for a guy that didn't have a 600-yard season yet. Jamie, Joseph Person of The Athletic says that Carolina's going to lighten Christian McCaffrey's practice workload. He probably won't play in the preseason, but when it comes to the games, it seems like he's expecting the same type of workload for Christian McCaffrey. Matt Rule basically said that at the owner's meetings.

They're not going to put him in the slot like some people have suggested. They're going to continue to use him as a running back. He's their best chance to win. Hopefully the quarterback is upgraded, whether that's Baker Mayfield or Matt Corral. You know, if it's still Sam Darnold, maybe the best of Sam Darnold. So we'd like to see the best situation for McCaffrey. But clearly, if he's healthy, that's the most important thing. Paul Denner Jr. covering the Bengals said that tight end Hayden Hurst is a deep sleeper.

You guys agree? How deep? I mean, I guess you could call just about anyone a deep sleeper, but is he more than that, Heath? Hayden Hurst, tight end for the Bengals? I think deep sleeper is the perfect way to describe him. Okay. Maybe very deep sleeper.

Okay. Zach Jackson, covering the Browns, says that Donovan Peoples-Jones is a high upside fantasy sleeper. Expects him to be a starter opposite Amari Cooper. And he also, I think this was kind of with the idea that Deshaun Watson is the quarterback. But let's say Deshaun Watson is the quarterback, Jamie. Does Donovan Peoples-Jones deserve to be picked

in the first 12 or 13 rounds of a draft 12 team draft no but past that i think he comes into play you know you're you're still talking about a receiving core that is banking on the best of david nijoku which we've barely seen uh david bell to you know be a very productive rookie you know i like him but i don't know if he's if he's got that ability. But Peoples Jones has shown flashes and he'll be the downfield threat. So, I mean, best case scenario for him is maybe becoming the Will Fuller for

Deshaun Watson, which would be pretty good. Finally, Heath, Nick Kosmider covering the Broncos was asked which Denver wide receiver's style fits Russell Wilson the best. And he said, you know what he said? KJ Hamler.

KJ Hamler. What he actually said was anybody but Jerry Judy. Because anybody who's reporting on that team right now is telling you how great Cortland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and KJ Hamler is. Or. Yeah. He basically, he wasn't saying like Hamler's going to be the best receiver, just that the deep

ball potential could be there with hamler and russ what do you think i'd like for somebody to say something nice about jerry judy next okay so let's read some emails fantasy football at cbsi.com and don't forget tuesday 1 p.m eastern today 1 p.m eastern join us. 1 p.m. Eastern. Join us, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday for a live mock draft. And if you miss it live, you can always catch it anytime on demand on youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday.

First email comes from Greg. Dear Sam, Cliff, Norm, and Diane. Let's see if Heath knows that one. Do you know that one, Heath? Sam, Cliff, Norm, and Diane? It's a show about a bar. I'm much more likely to know it than you are. Let's see if Heath knows that one. Do you know that one, Heath? Sam Cliff, Norman Diane? It's a show about a bar. I'm much more likely to know it than you are. It's cheers.

And they're all Celtics fans too, but real ones. I have a PPR league and a few decent keepers, but I need opinions on who to keep. Dave, I can keep these guys forever. There is no round penalty. I will be losing my first three picks. So, okay, there's no assigned round, but these would be his first three picks,

and he has to keep three. It is a PPR league where you start three receivers and a flex. Mark Andrews, Leonard Fournette, A.J. Brown, Deontay Johnson, and D.J. Moore. Pick three. Mark Andrews, Leonard Fournette, A.J. Brown, Deontay Johnson, D.J. Brown, Deontay Johnson, DJ Moore.

Remember, three receivers, PPR. First three? No penalty? They're his first three picks, but he has to keep them. He has to keep three, so basically no. Andrews is easy.

Yeah, I'm going to go the first three. Andrews, Fournette, and A.J. Brown. Yeah. Okay. From Justin, I took over a bad Dynasty team, it's PPR, that has the first overall pick

and an extra first rounder pick 108. Would you trade Alexander Madison, Russell Gage, and a 2023 third round pick for pick 202 this year no I would not well I think I would because he's it's a rebuild right but they're like Russell Gage starts week one because Chris Godwin's still out and puts up 20 fantasy points and you might get a second for him and Madison is an injury away and maybe a year away

from being the starting running back for the Vikings. Okay, so, yeah, you're right. Don't do it. You want to give away, like, Gage is fine. Like, if you're giving away Gage to get a second-round pick, that's fine. But I think you're giving away way too much. Second-round pick, it's a 12-team league? Yeah, it'd be pick 202 in a 12-team league. I mean, that's like damian

pierce like that's not what you want yeah you're right all right from rob grade the trade dynasty ppr 10 team league give up dalvin cook and a 2023 second round pick get tyreek hill jk dobbins and a 2023 fourth round pick so give up dalvin cook and a 2023 second for tyreek hill j. Dobbins, and a 2023 fourth round pick. So give up Dalvin Cook and a 2023 second for Tyreek Hill, J.K. Dobbins, and a 2023 fourth. Strongly prefer the Dobbins and Hillside. Yeah, I think that's fair. Okay, well, when you guys grade it, I'll move on to the next one. I'll say B minus. I'm going to say B plus. Okay, I'll move on to the next one. I'll say B minus.

I'm going to say B plus. Okay. I'll say B just to average it out. From Eric in Waltham, Massachusetts. Or it's probably pronounced like Wartum. You know, they pronounce everything W-A-L-T-H-A-M. You never know with Massachusetts. It's crazy. Can you guys talk more about auction strategy? We call that salary cap strategy now. What is your

approach? I play in a 14-team, three-wide receiver standard league. I was too aggressive last year, spending 70% of my budget on McCaffrey and Cook, and I missed the playoffs. That aggressiveness is better in 10-team leagues and 12- 12 team leagues than it is in 14 team leagues i would probably build more balanced in that format i guess the only thing would be is you

know how much do you know your league makes knowledge of you know finding sleepers if they if your league is very smart and sharp and they're gonna you know get good players for a dollar or two dollars, the cheaper end guys, then you're in trouble. If they don't and you have the ability to sort of pick off some of these guys that you like and think you have the chance to pop, lottery ticket type players, then it's an okay strategy to approach and you know how you play the waiver wire. But I always prefer to be a little bit more balanced. All right.

Last question comes from Denim from Langley, British Columbia. Hey, Coach Yost, Lastic, Gary, and Julius. This is Jamie's favorite movie. Remember the Titans. 10-team Dynasty League. I've been offered two. I'm not going to read his whole roster. You guys can do that.

He says he's a few years away from eventually becoming the dynasty I know I'll be. So he's been offered two trades. Davis Mills. Let's see. He'd be getting. Davis Mills, James Conner, pick 106 and pick 306. I do not think you can do this trade.

For Mark Andrews, David Montgomery, and pick 209. I do not think you can do this trade for Mark Andrews, David Montgomery and pick 209. No way, right? No. The one thing I don't know is if it's a super flex league. It doesn't matter, but still or give up Mark Andrews, get TJ Hawkinson and pick

201. No, no. Okay. No, no. Okay. Yeah. Don't do it. You gotta, you know, this, this rookie class is just not that great right now.

They may become great and there's going to be some great players from it, but you start getting the second round of most rookie drafts and it's just not that successful for you going in. Okay. Heath. So here are the odds by sports line. Teams most likely to sign, or which team will Kyrie Irving open next season with,

if not the Nets? Okay. Clippers plus 300. Knicks plus 400. Lakers plus 500. Mavericks plus 700. Heat plus 900. Bulls plus 700 heat plus 900 pools plus 1500. I'm going to go ahead and say,

it's not going to be the heat. I, I, I don't know that Kyrie Irving and heat culture necessarily go hand in hand. Um, I mean, the most fun thing would be some sort of crazy thing that involves Westbrook

back with Katie and Kyrie back with LeBron, right? Yeah. Well, I think Ky Kyrie back with LeBron, right? Yeah. Well, I think Kyrie, I think LeBron would welcome that. I don't think KD wants any part of Russell Westbrook. I hope it's not the Knicks. That's all I'm going to say. Why?

Oh, enough. No, it's not. Well, yeah, I don't like what's Kyrie Irving's trade value around the league right now? Not good, according to the article I read today. But I don't know what that means. Down. I don't know if that's not good. It was, you know, it started out sky high. I just seems like a headache.

I don't know. They're bad. I don't need them to take it. He's not going to be the best player on a team that wins a championship. Is he going to be the best player on a team that wins a championship. Is he going to be the best player on the Knicks? Well. Yeah, R.J. Barrett. He won't be the best player on a team that wins a championship.

Yeah, but I just say, would he be the best player? All right, well, we're out of here, everybody. Thank you very much. And we'll talk to you tomorrow with our top five running backs of fantasy football today. See you.