Fantasy Football Today - Top 5 RB Debate! Is Derrick Henry Too Old? (06/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 22, 2022

We talk about the five best RBs in Fantasy Football, but first let's let Dave react to the Rob Gronkowski news (3:10) plus news on James Robinson and Rashaad Penny (6:35) ... Top 5 RB questions (13:55) including most upside, most downside and rankings in different formats (17:40). Then we start discussing each Top 5 RB starting with Christian McCaffrey (18:15). Do we have any performance concerns for McCaffrey? ... We talk Jonathan Taylor (28:26), Derrick Henry (32:20), Austin Ekeler (35:40), handcuff options for these guys (42:33) and Najee Harris (46:00). Should Henry be ahead of Ekeler in all formats? Is Harris a little risky as a Top 5 RB? ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Adam, Dave, and Jamie just talking running backs on a nice Wednesday morning. And we'll also talk a little bit more about Rob Gronkowski as Dave will have his chance to react to the big news. Welcome to the show, Fantasy Football Today. Hey, if you're not doing anything, if you're not too busy, tell your friends about our podcast. Help us grow. We want to be the number one sports podcast in the world.

It is a goal we will probably never, ever get to, but I want to get there anyway. Anyway, spread the word. Why don't we never get there? That's tough, man. The Barstool guys seem to have that one. But you're the best host ever. There's only so much. David Heath is fantastic. Just kidding. We have a great cast. We's only so much. David Heath is fantastic.

We have a great cast. We have a great show. I love it. We always tell people, tell your friends about our show. They're never going to tell their friends about their show. They need to tell their friends who they know play fantasy but aren't in their leagues about the show. That's what you have to say, Adam. Why would I tell you or Jamie my deep, dark fantasy football secret?

For fun. What if we... No, I want to win. What if we record, for our loyal listeners, we'll record personal special bonus bad episodes where we give bad advice that you can distribute just to your friends. It'll help our downloads.

Some people say those are regular. Yeah. All right. Let's get to the big news here. So Rob Gronkowski retired. We're going to talk about Gronkowski, Deshaun Watson, and some,

some pretty significant running back news that's come out recently. And then we'll get into our top five running backs, which for Dave are Jonathan Taylor in full PPR, Derek Henry, two Eckler, Najee Harris, Christian McCaffrey for Jamie. It's the same five, but a different order. Itler, Najee Harris, Christian McCaffrey. For Jamie, it's the same five, but a different order.

It's Taylor, one. But it's McCaffrey, two. Five for Dave. Eckler, three. You both have Eckler, three. Derek Henry, four for Jamie. He's two for Dave. And Najee Harris, five for Jamie.

He's four for Dave. So Taylor, Eckler, Henry, Najee, McCaffrey are the top five. We'll talk about them in a little bit. Jamie, you're so far off on Najee, McCaffrey are the top five. We'll talk about them in a little bit. Jamie, you're so far off on Najee. On the stat-o-meter, how much does this stat matter to you, by the way? Quick detour here, and then we'll get to the Gronk news. Christian McCaffrey has 158 carries in his last two seasons.

Zero. 20 or more yards. Zero. He sucks. Stato would be like, a zero means it doesn't matter at all. 10, oh, that matters a lot. No, I'm surprised by that. Me too.

I don't think that precludes him from having a 20-yard run or a 30- or a 40-yard run anytime soon. How many did he have? Can we compare it to what he had in his heyday? Six in 2018 and six in 2019. Yeah, did he have? Can we compare it to what he had in his heyday? Six in 2018 and six in 2019. Yeah,

if he stays healthy, he's going to have six again. Okay. How many Nazi have left you? Good question. I will look that up. I don't know if he had six.

I'm going to say he had three. That's my guess. Do you want me to look it up or you got it? No, go for it. Dave, I want to get your reaction to Rob Gronkowski retiring.

Heath and Jamie didn't seem too affected by it in terms of their rankings. Maybe a little bit of Russell Gage boost, Cameron Brate low end, sleeper. I won't even call him low end. Yeah, your reaction to Rob Gronkowski retiring, what it means for the rest of the Bucs.

I think it's going to put a small strain on the Bucs in the red zone. It's one less big boy for Tom Brady to lean on, and certainly it was a guy that he's got great chemistry with. And I'm still not sold. Not that I'm going to draft Gronk, but I'm still not sold that he's definitely, definitely done.

I just wonder if there's a way for him to sneak onto the roster. Right, exactly. So I read that from Rosenhaus, and I went, you know what, that's probably right on. Because Brady's already a retirement. He said during the season or next season. He did not say in August, like you just said, Dave. So that's obviously a big difference.

Of course. So once it looks like there's a chance, people are going to gravitate toward Gronk again. Let's assume for the rest of this jibber-jabber that he's not going to un-retire. I think it's good for Gage. I liked Gage anyway. And I made a mistake in the draft that we did yesterday. Well, two mistakes. One, I drafted Gronk in round 13, but the other one, I took Tim Patrick when I should have taken Russell Gage. I had Gage ranked higher. And just for some reason, I was feeling Patrick that day. And now that'll never happen again because Gronk isn't going to play. And Gage should be up to filling that role. And what is that role? Just this past year, 11% of Tom Brady's receptions, 15% of his yards, 15% of his yards, and 14% of his touchdowns went to the grogster and that was

in 12 games with grog so i think that there's an opportunity there i don't think it's going to be gauge getting all of that i think camera braid is definitely in the conversation of late round i need a tight end this guy might score territory i bet he gets drafted in almost every single league gauge i'm moving into that round eight range i'm i don't know if i can get him over that barrier into round seven in my mind although it'll be a lot easier to do if we find out that chris godwin isn't around well talk to me about i haven't moved brady down yet but i'm pretty sure i'm gonna move brady down a couple of spots okay so behind who do you think you'll move him behind uh well josh allen no he's already been behind

josh allen uh i think i had him right behind lamar jackson and ahead of kyler russ and hertz i think i'm probably going to make that move to put him behind those three guys at least okay all right if you want more if you want jamie and heath's thoughts on rob gonkowski retiring bonus pod dropped yesterday and please check it out. It was only about eight minutes or nine minutes or something like that, so it won't take you long. Deshaun Watson has settled

20 of 24 lawsuits against him, but this will not matter in terms of the NFL's suspension, which then has to be approved, basically, by an independent, I don't know if arbitrator is the right word, and then it can be appealed. So it could be a lengthy process here, even when the suspension is announced. I was reading that on ESPN this morning. Speaking of ESPN, Michael DiRocco,

who covers the Jaguars, said James Robinson is expected to be cleared to return at some point in training camp. So Jamie, yesterday we said Robinson's not expected to be ready at the start of training camp. This is not anything different, but it is nice to hear that he is expected to return at some point in training camp. So, at some point in the draft, you're going to have to take James Robinson, and what point is that? I think around, maybe around eight or nine right now,

and that will probably bump up a spot around or two if he's looking like he's going to be ready to go for week one um i still think for this season at least the start of the season travis etn is a better fantasy running back right now and this news will drive down his price which i think will be good because i think if it was he's going to be on the pup list or not ready for week one, we would have seen probably a little bit too much of an overvalue of Travis Etienne.

So I think he's still the better fantasy option right now. But does he fall behind someone like A.J. Dillon? Would you rather have A.J. Dillon or Travis Etienne if three weeks before the season starts, you get on? Yeah, I guess that would work out. You get James Robinson

is ready, off the pup list, good to go. I would rather have ETN and PPR. Other formats, I'd rather have Dylan. Okay. And Rashad Penny, Dave, is in the driver's seat to be the primary running back for the Seahawks, according to ESPN's Brady Henderson. Huh?

Really? Yeah. Believe that? Of course he is. What can I believe? That he's healthy and he hasn't gotten hurt yet during OTAs? Why would you draft Ken Walker if you're not going to just... If Rashad Penny's in the driver's seat to be the primary running back, that's strange to me, I guess.

I mean, I guess it depends what your definition of primary is. I'm sure that they had a high grade on Kenneth Walker. I've said this five times now. He fits exactly what they want in a running back in Seattle. And so, Penny, they've only got for one year. So, many teams draft with the future in mind, not necessarily the here and now in mind. And that was a pick with the future in mind for Seattle.

I am positive that they will split reps in an effort to keep Penny on the field, in an effort to get Walker acclimated to the NFL game. And then as soon as Rashad Penny gets hurt, Walker will be off to the races. That's why Walker's going ahead of Penny. Should he be going four rounds ahead of Penny? I don't even know if it's that many. It might be more like two or three. It's two.

Is that it? I don't have a problem with it. Well, I'll look up a couple things. Let's see where they went. We did a half PPR draft yesterday. You can see it on YouTube. It was a live stream. So, get the draft results right now. They are loading.

By the way... In my rankings, this is an ADP. I've got them 34 spots apart. So, Ken Walker. He's probably Kenneth Walker. He went in round 7. The late round 7. And Rashad Penny went

two rounds later. 26 picks later. The end of round 9. In average draft position since May 1st, Walker is of round nine. In average draft position since May 1st, Walker is 75th overall and Penny is 94th overall. There you go.

Penny is the better zero RB guy. If you're going to wait on running back on draft day, man, it's almost a must that you get Rashad Penny. And you just hope that he carries you for the first three or four weeks of the season at minimum. Okay, Jamie, it's your turn to guess how many 20 plus yard carries did Najee Harris have last year? And he had

307 carries. Two. I said three. Dave, the answer is? The answer is six. Yes. He had also three catches of 20-plus yards. So there you go. Najee Harris is just as good as Christian McCaffrey. Yeah, except he had six.

He had a lot more carries. Well, not a lot more. He had more carries than McCaffrey did. He had almost double. Everybody had more carries than McCaffrey did. No, no, no. So the stat I gave was McCaffrey had six. double. Everybody had more carries than McCaffrey did. No, no, no. The stat I gave was 158 carries. Yeah, yeah. I was talking about something else

though. 158 carries over the last two years. Zero 20-plus yard carries. When McCaffrey had six in both 2018 and 2019, what was he? In the 230 range? 250? Something like that. He had fewer carries than Najee Harris, but not a ton.

It is interesting on Fantasy Pros ADP, just to look at the Seattle backs, Penny's going ahead of Walker. Really? Yeah. Okay. I wonder if that's going to be a thing in home leagues because people are going to remember

the furious finish that Penny had. This doesn't make any sense though. The overall has Walker one spot ahead, but the running backs have Penny four spots ahead. So, thanks. This is also, I don't know if anybody finds this interesting, but I'm going to say it anyway. All right, you look at 2019.

Christian McCaffrey. You can literally say that before everything you say. We're jumping back and forth to different topics. Christian McCaffrey had 287 carries and six of them went for 20 or more yards. And that's actually basically very similar to Najee Harris in 2021. It's 20 fewer carries.

Najee had 307. McCaffrey had 287. They both had six carries of 20 plus yards. McCaffrey averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Najee Harris averaged 3.9 yards per carry. Isn't that interesting? Same amount of 20-plus yard carries, but almost a full yard per carry difference.

You love your YPC. It's just there are different styles, different big play potential, whatever. Right, but you get that from watching them play, and you get that from watching the offensive lines that they were playing with at the time. Nah, no, McCaffrey's wasn't great. Dude, Pittsburgh's line was so bad last year.

But McCaffrey's wasn't anything special that year. No, I agree, but it was... It was 19th. It was 19th according to... Well, their team was 19th in run blocking according to PFF that year. Yeah, I was going to call them league average, but I bet they weren't even that. Well, the Steelers weren't league average.

No. Now, we've got... Wow. I just realized I forgot. I have a 10-30 appointment in five minutes that I forgot to cancel. So, that's awkward. Why don't you? You should cancel it on air.

I had to take... It's a vet appointment. I had to take Zoe to the vet That's awkward. Why don't you? You should cancel. What's the appointment? It's a vet appointment. I take Zoe to the vet to get a... You forgot about Zoe? Got a lot going on in the house right now as you guys know. You better hope the ASPCA

isn't listening. It's a B12 injection. We'll do it tomorrow. Anyway, Dave's top five running backs, Jamie's top five running backs. Just before you get to that, make sure you check out

all of our other podcasts, including the Pick 6 podcast, which is the best non-fantasy football podcast out there. Go to cbssports.com slash podcast. Look at our whole lineup. We've got combat sports. We've got soccer. We have women's soccer.

We have fantasy baseball. We have college football. We have almost anything you need in the world of sports. We have it as a podcast. Also, check out CBS Sports HQ. Watch that on the CBS Sports app. I watch it on my Roku. You can watch it on any smart TV. Any good one, anyway.

Which top five running back has the most upside? I guess this is a PPR question. Which top five running back has the most upside? Melvin Gordon. No. It's McCaffrey.'s yeah it's not close uh which top okay okay all right if it's not close in ppr then i'll ask you in the other formats and non-ppr which top

five running back has the most upside derrick henry uh mcafree oh not jonathan taylor do you think henry has more upside than than Taylor in any format guys? Henry? Yes. Do you think Henry has more? I don't know more outside. I think similar outside. Okay.

Which top five with Henry is, and it's just what's, you know, been the case with historically is that typically the number one running back is 26 years old or younger. And so can Henry do that? Sure. I mean, he's, he's an alien. He's, he's, he's certainly capable of having another fantastic season and hopefully

building off what he started in the first half last year, where he was more involved in the passing game and continuing to be a dominant force on the ground. But, you know, he's coming off his first significant injury. There's a change in the offensive line. There's a change with the quarterback, potential change with the quarterback, the change with the receiving core.

And that could impact him positively, which is the hope, or it can impact him negatively, which is the concern. He's 28, by the way. And it's not, what did you say, that usually the number one running back is 26 or younger? 26 years old or younger. Usually the number one running back is 26 or 26 years old or younger?

Usually the top five running backs are 26 or younger. And I believe the last time it, there wasn't a top five running back 26 or younger was LaShawn McCoy like six years ago or something like that. And Eckler's 27 and Henry's 28. I'd like to go back and double check on that. I hope I'm not missing someone. But yeah, 26. Once you get to 27, we don't see a lot of top five running backs.

Like last year, yeah, last year Leonard Fournette was 26. I think James Conner was 25. But it's an interesting age. Eckler and Henry are so different in terms of their workloads. But they're both outside the age 26. All right, who has the most downside? Which top five running back has the most downside? Again, by the way, the top five in some order for both Dave and Jamie are Taylor, McCaffrey,

Henry, Eckler, Najee Harris. Who has the most downside? McCaffrey. Who has the most non-injury downside? Non-injury, Najee. I think it's Najee. How come? non-injured, nausea. I think it's nausea. How come?

Just because if he doesn't rebound in terms of efficiency and this offense is somehow as stagnant or worse than it was last year, he'll, he'll be okay, but he won't be worth the top five price tag. It's the, it's the reception total. I mean, you know,

you're going from a statue to somebody who's going to be somewhat more mobile you know whether it's trubisky or pickett most likely pickett and so you know you're you're getting rid of it was the same concern remember we went from eli manning to daniel jones you know the the lack of statue at quarterback could be a downturn for what the upside of naji har is, which is his role in the passing game. I mean, you know, tied for targets or tied for reception or tied for targets. We've got one of the two with Austin Eckler at the running back spot. So, you know, you need him to be as involved in the passing game

to justify him being a top five running back because I don't think he's going to blow the doors off running the ball. So tied for targets. Both had 94. Najee actually led all running backs with 74 catches, and Eckler had 70. Leonard Fournette had 69. Okay, next question.

How much do your rankings change in non-PPR? This is for Gronk on Gronk Day. Yeah. How much do your rankings change in non-PPR? I put Henry ahead of McCaffrey. He's ahead of McCaffrey for me, too change in non-PPR? I put Henry ahead of McCaffrey. He's ahead of McCaffrey for me too. What about Eckler? Do you put a lot of guys ahead of

Eckler? No, I just drop Eckler from three to four. So I just move Henry up and then the other two go down. I move Najee up. It's Taylor, Henry, Najee, Eckler, McCaffrey. What about half PPR?

Same. No, no, McCaffrey's still two for me. I mean, it's basically my PPR rankings. Okay. How about the fact that Christian McCaffrey has only been the number one running back per game in a full season once. Does that matter?

I mean, we're really taking... Obviously, 2019 was legendary. He's played 10 games the last two years, and he was number one per game in only three games in 2020, and he was not number one per game in 2021. And if you do remove... If you do remove the two games that he left with an injury he still wasn't number he was basically tied in full ppr with derrick henry uh they were really very close to even somewhere around 23 and a half fantasy

points per game in full ppr um i you know i guess i'm just looking for angles here to see if there's something with McCaffrey performance based that we're missing or if we should just assume he's just going to be incredible again and and how much better is he going to be than everyone else is he going to be in the 29 fantasy point per game range Is he going to be more like the 23 at 23 and a half fantasy points per game range? And I'll say the 23 and a half was with him scoring almost no touchdowns last year. So it probably is pretty low because he was on pace for over a hundred catches and something like 2,400 total yards in his five healthy games. So Jamie, what's your take on that for McCaffrey? Basically what I'm saying is we're taking his 2019 season,

which was epic, and we're taking the portion, the three games in 2020, and almost like expecting that again. When last year he was, probably mostly because of touchdowns, he was closer to the rest of the pack. Yeah, I think, though, if you're, I know you're stopping in 2019, but he also had 100 catches in 2018. You know, so, you know, you're looking at what his body of work is. And, you know, the from a production standpoint, I don't worry about him. It's clearly injury. And, you know, it's. I feel somewhat cowardly to not put him first because he's got the most upside

of any player, non quarterback at the position we cover the most. And, you know, it's like you say, okay, he was, he was,

uh, basically tied with Derek Henry, you know, in an offense that changed last year because of the quarterback and a terrible offensive line, you know, you, you, you, you, you take out the two games in four of the quarterback and a terrible offensive line you know you you you azer stat you take out the two games in four of the five games that he finished he was 24 or more ppr points yeah and so like you said without touchdowns that to me feels like if he's healthy could be i don't want to say the floor because that's a really high floor but

i mean that's the type of player that he is you You know, he's, he's going to do things at that position that nobody else will do, you know, unless, you know, things change for somebody like Najee or somebody like Eckler, you know, the guys are going to be so involved in the passing game, but I don't know if they have a hundred catch potential. He has a hundred catch potential. And so, you know, I don't think Camara is there anymore in this, in this offense for the saints. And so with his combination of what he does as a rusher, he's just different. You know, I mean, Henry and Taylor have to score so many touchdowns to be on that level because they're not going to be as involved in the passing game. You know, even if Henry gets the 30 catches, which I think he's capable of, you're still

asking him to score 20 plus touchdowns. You're asking Taylor to do that again, you know, score 20 plus touchdowns. And even then you're talking about Henry reaching his ceiling last year of 24 points. I think that's probably where he'll be. You're asking Taylor to be 40 catches again. I don't know if he'll do that if Naeem Hines' role in the passing game is there. So I just think that McCaffrey is such a difference maker that if you are playing as aggressively as you want to be as a fantasy

manager he's the one that you should be taking first i'm glad you brought up that in four of the five games he had 24 or more ppr fantasy points because his average in the five so mccaffrey played seven games last year i took out two of them he left two of them injured which you shouldn't do why because people started in those weeks. Yeah, okay, fine. Either way. Go ahead and... I don't mind Acer stats at all, but it happens in fantasy. But I'm trying to give... He missed most of the game.

I don't think he played more than a third of the snaps. Was he active to start the game, and did everybody start him? But what I'm saying... It realistically should count. Of course it counts, but the point of the stat is to give fantasy managers an idea of what he can do if he stays healthy.

I think everybody knows. They might not know that in those five games, I mean, these are eye-popping numbers. In those five games, he was on pace for 2,414 total yards and 119 catches. I mean, it's ridiculous. And only six touchdowns. But in four, yes, technically Derek Henry averaged more PPR fantasy points are about the same as McCaffrey as McCaffrey did in those five games. But in four of those five games, McCaffrey, like Jamie said, was over 24 points per game. He had his first game back from injury was against the patriots he scored about 10 points it was a bad game but it is amazing just how good he was in those five games 2400 yards 119 catches it's it's ridiculous uh dave dave do you agree with jamie no performance

concerns for christian mccaffrey um minimal performance concerns because I do worry about the Panthers coaching staff trying to mitigate risk and take some touches off of him. There's two places where I'm nervous about where those touches can come from. One of them I'm not nervous about. The other one I am. Empty plays. All right, they're at midfield. It's second and five or it's, you know, whatever.

And they just, they're not going to run the ball they don't care if the defense knows that they take mcafree off the field it saves them a chance of getting hurt blocking or running around or tripping on the turf monster whatever the one that i am a little more concerned about is short yardage goal line because that's absolutely an area where bodies can get worn down and they just added deontay foreman and foreman is you know big hulk of a running back nowhere near as explosive as christian mcafree why wouldn't they use him to burrow in from the one especially if they're going to give mcafree the majority of the work and let deontay foreman just sit there and wait until they're in a situation where they're short yardage they just call the big fella in and they

put it in his belly and let him gain a yard. I'm a little worried about that. Out of a scale of 1 to 10 or 0 to 10? It's like a 2. It's minimal. The bigger concern is what everybody knows. It's the injuries. From September 2020 to November 2021, Christian McCaffrey got

hurt five separate times. Four of the five injuries were to his legs including his ankle and in i think all four of the times he hurt his legs we were initially given a timeline a short timeline and then it ended up being longer or he was put on ice for the year wow that's that's a lot of injuries right five injuries in two years five injuries in a career is a lot of injuries. Right. Five injuries in two years. Five injuries in a career is a lot. Five injuries in two years. And I'm telling you, that's going to resonate with the coaching staff in some way.

Jamie said he felt cowardly for not putting McCaffrey at one. I'm feeling kind of nervous and stupid for ranking him at five. I'm worried that that's going to be too high. Doesn't seem like there's much of a middle ground. He's either. Well, and that's the thing. That's the thing. Because there are going to be people who, and i don't disagree with jamie's logic you do shoot

for upside in the draft and there will be people probably half the league that would entertain the idea of taking christian mcafree as soon as they possibly can the people who had mcafree on their teams the last two years will not be those people they will say uh-uh i dealt with him being hurt it sucked i don't like foreman behind him i don't like juba hubbard behind him i'm staying away from the carolina panthers run game okay and it's just going to be a matter of how each draft unfolds it's nothing it's something that we can't accurately predict other than i'm almost certain that he'll be somewhere between one and five in every single draft. Yeah, well, the people who did not want Todd Gurley after his very disappointing 2016 season

missed out on the number one running back, I believe, in 2017. The people who didn't want Joe Mixon last year, there were a lot of those. A lot of people who didn't want Mixon because he was hurt in 2020, and he played hurt in 2019, even though he maybe missed only one game, if any. They missed out on a breakout year from him. So lesson learned, perhaps. Okay, anyway.

Well, you also have the flip side of that, though, not to – I mean, it's McCaffrey again. You know, he was hurt in 2020. People still drafted him last year because of what the upside is and got burned. And then there's also buying back into Barkley with the hope that he was going to bounce back and got burned, you know, so it goes both ways.

No, you know what? I'm trying to be an optimist here, Jamie. This is a happy show. No, I'm with you, but you know, you got to be fair. It's a good point. It's a good point. All right, we'll take a break here.

When we come back, Debbie Downer and Dave Richard will talk about Jonathan Taylor and the rest of the top five running backs right now on Fantasy Football today. interest-free days, and the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Welcome back. All right. So we talked a lot about McCaffrey. Let's talk about Jonathan Taylor. Any performance concerns on Jonathan Taylor, Jamie?

Performance? I mean, again, we talked about this with FFT and Five that there's the reception concern because of what Frank Reich has said about Naheem Hines. And I think the thing you have to go back to is what his reception total was as a rookie in 2020 when he played 15 games and still had 36 catches as opposed to 40. And so that's, I think, the number you should be looking at. 35 catches, 40 catches.

I don't think he's going to necessarily eclipse that by a high margin minus a 19-hines injury. But the Colts clearly feel like what made their offense successful in 2020, and it was with a similar quarterback, Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan, is that getting the ball in Naeem Hines' hands more was working for them. And you're talking about a guy that went from 70 targets to 50 targets, 63 catches to 40 catches. He was such a big difference maker for them. And I think Frank Reich wants to get back to that.

I know Scotty Montgomery, the running backs coach, wants to get back to that. Marcus Brady, their office coordinator, wants to get back to that. I've said this time and again. Or I think I said this during the mock draft yesterday. I'm sorry. You know, I spoke to those guys. And they said, we want Naeem Hines more involved. And the way to get him more involved is in the pass game.

Now, they think that they can both be involved at the same time. I think we'll see a lot of sets with them on the field together. But you look at this receiving core, and we like Alec Pierce. We've liked Paris Campbell, but he can't stay healthy. That's their two and their three, and it's pretty scary right now. If you're relying on a rookie to come in and play such a significant role, which he can, and also a guy in Paris Campbell who's had a lot of high expectations but hasn't stayed on the field because he's had, by all accounts,

a wonderful offseason so far. So behind Michael Pittman, the receiving core is incomplete. So that helps Jonathan Taylor, I think, in keeping him involved in the passing game. But as I told you yesterday, Adam, they were 3-5 in the first eight games of the season last year. He had two games for Taylor over 20 touches. Then their final nine games, he goes over 20 touches,

eight of the final nine, they're six and three. And that includes the loss to Jacksonville. So does he have that type of workload? Now, Reich said in this Naeem Hines quote, and if you remember it, it was, if I'm a fantasy player, I'm drafting Naeem Hines. That's what he said to the media. He said, we got a little bit too run-centric for me. He wants to be a little bit more pass-happy,

which I think speaks to, A, not trusting Carson Wentz, and B, having more of a pass or a quarterback that they trust in Matt Ryan. And so will they go away from 20 carries consistently for Jonathan Taylor? Maybe, but I think if they're winning games, he's probably has the opportunity to get those types of touches. So I'm going to bank on him being a 20 carry guy. I'm going to bank on him being a four 20 carry per game guy, a 40 catch season guy, a 20 touchdown guy, and hopefully a chance to challenge for once again, over 2000 total yards. So he's safe. Now, again, does he have the upside of McCaffrey? No. His best season, just over 21 PPR points per game.

McCaffrey, 24 plus, depending on how you want to, you know, azerstat it. So there's a lot to love about McCaffrey. There's a lot to love about Jonathan Taylor as well. I think, again, it depends how you want to qualify it. If you want to qualify it by age, durability, still upside, it's Taylor. If you want to qualify just by upside, McAfee should go number one. But I think Taylor, 23 years old, in an offense that still has one of the best, if not the best offensive linemen in the

NFL, good group around him. They got to figure out the left tackle spot. But I think Matt Ryan will be better for this team. I think this team's in a great division. I think they're the best team in the division. And we'll see how things shake out for the Colts over the course of the season. But Jonathan Taylor is the best player and I think he's the safest number one pick this year. Dave, you have Derek Henry too,

even in full PPR, Jamie has him fourth. Um, he had 18 catches in eight games last year, so he was on pace for 38 catches in 17 games. And I went and I looked at if he had 38 catches every year, basically I took his per game averages in 2019 and 2020. I gave him 38 catches, his career average of nine yards per catch, which is crazy high by the way. And I

gave him an extra receiving touchdown and he would have been over the last, in 2019, it would have been number two per game in PPR. And in 2020, he would have been number four. He didn't move much, but he did, but it did gain,

he was number three in 2019, number four without the boost. But anyway, he did gain, you know, could he get to those 38 catches? Because if he can get to 38 instead of 18, you could be talking about an extra two to three points per game in PPR,

which is a pretty big deal for Derrick Henry. So why do you have him ranked two, and do you think 38 catches is realistic? I do think 38 catches is realistic, but I'm not going to promise you that he's going to be on that kind of a pace because he really hasn't been except for the first half of last year.

Why do I have him at two? He's been a top four ppr running back on a per game basis each of the last three years that's why he's that type of consistency especially considering that he's had a lot of years where he hasn't caught 38 passes that that that resonates with me. And I know he's 28 years old. Um, but Jamie, I think called him an alien. Okay. He's like Robo cop out there on the field. He's unbelievable. He's such a different type of dude than everybody else. Who's all then pretty much everybody else who's running the ball in the NFL and the Titans are all in on him. Still, if you're worried about the foot injury, I thought it was like a freak injury. Remember, he finished the game that he played in where he broke the metatarsal in his foot. He's been working out like crazy this offseason, so I think he'll be fine.

And I would say it's a bonus. He only had 257 touches last year. Usually, Derrick Henry, way over 300 touches in a season. Now he only has 257. So we were worried about that once upon a time with Derek Henry having 400 touches. I think he had 409 touches in one year, including the playoffs. Well, now he only has 257. So a little less wear and tear on his body than in the past. He scored at least 17 PPR points in six of his first seven games before the injury. And I just, I don't see the Titans.

I know they got Robert Woods and they drafted Traylon Burks. I don't see them changing their offense much. I think they're still going to be Henry-centric. I think their offensive line is going to be okay. And I think Derrick Henry is going to be given an opportunity to just keep running over teams in the league, and especially in the division. The Texans run defense.

The Jaguars run defense. I don't think anybody's scared of them. The Colts run defense. If Darius Leonard is right, that'll be tough. But he's even done well against the Colts when Darius Leonard's played. And so if Leonard doesn't play, if he's not back from surgery, it just makes all six of his division games, just monster upside games.

Yeah. He's pretty awesome. I think age is the only thing that's going to hold people back. And, um, Jamie, you have Austin Eckler ahead of Derek Henry. You have Eckler three,

Dave has Eckler, uh, also three, sorry, but you know, the order is a little bit different. You both have Eckler three, except Dave has Henry two and you have Henry four. Um, you guys differ on Christian little bit different. You both have Eckler three, except Dave has Henry two,

and you have Henry four. You guys differ on Christian McCaffrey. Jamie has him two, and Dave has him five. But why did you put Austin Eckler ahead of Derek Henry, and you said in non-PPR, you have Henry ahead of Eckler, and half PPR, you have Eckler ahead of Henry, right? Correct. Yeah, so why Eckler over Henry?

Well, I think you saw the best of Austin Eckler last year, and hopefully we're going to get that one more time, you know, where the touchdowns were equal. You know, and anytime somebody's going to equal Derrick Henry in touchdowns, what they do with their role in the passing game has to be factored in. And clearly, you know, if we're hoping for 38 catches

for Derrick Henry, that's, you know, like a a four game stretch for Austin Eckler when he's right. Yeah. So all that said, Henry Henry did score more points per game than no. Henry was awesome last year. I mean, I don't want to take anything away from Derrick Henry, but, you know, Austin Eckler finished the season. And, you know, again, when we when we look at pass catchers and PPR, you know, to me, he's the second best guy at this position behind McCaffrey, you know, and so there's a clear track record here. You know, you ask performance about these other guys. The only concern for me performance-wise would be, are they going to maybe take Eckler off the field for any stretches because Isaiah Spiller has proven to be good in this role

and they want to make sure Austinckler is there for them as they hopefully stay healthy and make a playoff run it's almost the same thing with the calfrey in carolina right where they've got a bigger back that they that they try and mix in to take some wear and tear off of eckler that's what you're saying yeah i i guess the same same theory but in different ways because i think spiller can catch the ball. Deontay Foreman can't do that. That's true. So, you know, if they want to save Eckler in certain situations,

then I think Spiller can certainly spell him to whatever degree, because I think he'll prove to be more talented than Larry Roundtree and Joshua Kelly. But in any event, Eckler, as we noted when talking about Najee Harris, you know, tied for the league in targets at the running back position, 70-plus catches. I think he could still even do better than that. The only concern for me performance-wise would be does the touchdowns come down

because 20 is hard to replicate, especially receiving touchdowns. But he's so significant and such a big key to this offense that I, you know, I just buy into him being, you know, a superstar. And, you know, again, he's, he's at the age where can he finish one? No, but you're not drafting him one, you know? So if you finish this top five, I think you're okay with the same thing with Henry. You know, these guys finished top five. They don't have to be, and I know you mentioned Adam, you know, it's typically top five. They don't finish if they're over the age of 26. But I think both those guys have the ability to do it still in different ways.

Eckler, reception total should be there. Touchdowns will hopefully still be there. Offensive line is great. Quarterback is amazing. This team is pointed in the right direction. So Austin Eckler feels like the safest bet. And for our projections from Sportsline, he's two. He's the number two rated running back,

and he is number two on Fantasy Pro's ADP. He's the only one, though, I think that you could say of the top five that maybe he doesn't get the goal line work. We didn't think he was going to get it last year, and he did. And he did, right. I think he did pretty good with it. I don't see why he wouldn't unless they just want someone else in that role. I think he did pretty good with it. I don't see why he wouldn't, unless they just want someone else in that role. I think they did say something months ago

about how they have to get the other running backs involved, and I think hopefully that was either... That might have been just coach speak, but hopefully Spiller addresses that need. They don't have very good running backs behind Eckler, but he's really the only one that could... I know, Dave, you put a 2 out of 10 for McCaffrey losing those goal line touches, but Eckler's got to have the highest probability really the only one that could that could i know dave you put like a two out of ten for mcafree

losing those goal line touches but eckler's got to have the highest probability if any top five maybe even any top eight like you look at mix in dalvin cook camara and maybe camara any like top running back losing goal line work eckler's got to be at the top of that list not saying he will but highest chance would you probably the highest chance yeah okay um and well hold on hold on i want to put a dot on that point or a bow or whatever the hell you want i think one thing you know when go ahead james look well i don't know if you're looking something i'm good but you go ahead no i don't want. Go ahead. He had 10 rushes from three yards or closer last year. So clearly they were giving him opportunities to find the end zone. Yeah, he scored most of their rushing touchdowns.

Right. He was their guy, no question. Right. So I don't think it's a huge worry. We need to hope that Spiller is the speller, meaning he's going to be there to spell Austin Eckler here and there over the course of a game, and Eckler continues to dominate like he did last year.

My biggest nitpick on him is that he only has one top five finish, and it was last year. Before that, he's been out of the top five in PPR per game every year. Last year was the first time to be the featured guy, though. Yeah, but I guess that's fair. If you look at 2020...

Well, he wasn't featured in 2020. That's right. He was fairly featured. Hold on. I have to get my Azerstat song queued up. I don't know if I can. But if you look at 2020.

Always crazy, but always fact. That's just an Azerstat. All right. 2020 Azerstat for Austin Eckler. He also left two games early with an injury. And if you remove those two games, he would have been the number six running back per game in full PPR.

Number 15 in non-PPR, number 10 in half PPR, number six in full PPR. And that was with a 17-game pace of four touchdowns. But he was on pace, two rushing, two receiving. So in 2020, in his healthy games, he was on pace for 1,845 total yards, 100 catches, and only four touchdowns. So with horrible touchdown luck,

he was still borderline elite in football. But that was also Melvin Gordon still on the team. Right, exactly, exactly. Now his pace wasn't as good in 2021, but his touchdowns went way up. His yards and catch pace wasn't as good, but his touchdowns went way up. And that was better coaching,

better offensive line, and I don't want to say improved quarterback play, but it was improved quarterback play. Justin Herbert was a sophomore. Yeah. And he was given that short yardage goal line opportunity. Right. I don't know why it took me forever to find it.

Six of his rushing touchdowns came from three yards or closer. There you go. All right, now you hear... Oh, sorry, go ahead. With these four, and this is probably something we should spend more time talking about at a different time is are do you feel better if there's a handcuff because you can try and target the backfill and these these are different offenses clearly because you know you're talking about not necessarily aside from maybe Eckler with the

Chargers I'm just trying to think about this like I don't think the Titans offense and the Colts offense are going to be top five offenses barring something significantly changing um the Steelers offense doesn't feel that way no and so and the Panthers offense isn't that way yeah so but if you know you can get the second like i did a draft last night it was 16 rounds and dionte forman didn't get drafted um you're not drafting the backup to taylor which i think would probably be philip lindsey at this point because now he finds a different player but dionte forman you can draft, right? Spiller, you can draft or should draft. Okay, but before, but when you say you could draft him,

I certainly agree. I took Spiller yesterday. How good are they going to be? I don't think Spiller walks into an every down roll if Eckler gets hurt. No, but the only reason I'm thinking of this is the one game Eckler missed last year, it was against Houston.

Justin Jackson scored 33 PPR points. Like, he was a monster. You know, so. And we had some of the similar concerns, right, with the backup to Eckler last year. Was it going to be Kelly? Was it going to be Roundtree? Was it going to be Jackson? We kind of figured when Jackson was healthy, he was that guy.

I think we all kind of feel the same way, right? That Spiller should be that guy? Yes. So, you know, does it give you a little bit more security when you're looking at this? Like, Henry goes down last year, right? Foreman had some good moments. Adrian Peterson.

No, but who's the other one I'm thinking of? But didn't they sign Adrian Peterson? They did, yes, but... It was horrible. No, but it wasn't him. It was... God, why am I blanking on this? Well, Foreman, right?

It was someone else. No, it was another guy. What are you talking about? The Titans backup last year. Oh, Jeremy McNichols, Dontrell Hilliard. It was Hilliard. Hilliard had some good moments. But, you know, Taylor goes down, right?

How comfortable are you going to feel about Phillip Lindsey? Not really good. No. No. Henry goes down. I don't think anybody you going to feel about Phillip Lindsey? Not really good. Henry goes down. I don't think anybody's looking at, was it Redick as a number two guy? No. Hassan Haskins, not Hassan Redick. I actually like Hassan Haskins.

Right, but is he going to be No, he's not going to be Derrick Henry. And the same thing with Najee. Just in terms of a safety factor, Eckler gives you a little bit of, okay, I can draft his handcuff and still get hopefully good production.

So like what you would say for Dalvin cook, because we've seen not, not the same level, no, but like the same argument could be made. Like if you get down, this is the time to have the, I'm drafting a first round running back.

And I know I can get his backup because these guys don't really qualify, aside from probably Eckler. But that is something that if you are drafting, knowing you can get the second guy, does that make you a little bit more comfortable about drafting the first guy? And especially knowing that you like the second guy. Because you can get Deontay Foreman pretty easily. You just made it clear, but no one likes the talent.

And obviously there's no comparison in talent to him mcafree right but i mean you know mike davis two years ago was great all right guys let's finish up here on naji harris yeah we would have said the same thing about davis naji harris is a year or two running back who had 307 carries last year a huge involvement in the passing game like i said led all running backs and catches. Uh, so that's very encouraging, but tell me how you're ranking him ahead of just, just,

let's just say Joe Mixon and Dalvin cook right now. Um, Dave, why Najee Harris ahead of Mixon and cook who are on looks like probably possibly much better offenses. I do think the Steelers' offense is going to change. I think it will be more, I think it will be a little improved from last year,

but I think it will be especially helpful for Najee. I think they're going to build it around him, or at least they're going to try to, and then if it doesn't work, they'll go in a different direction. I think the line will be better, and I'm expecting Najee to be a little bit more efficient than he was last year.

And he already talked about his rushing average. And there's other metrics that we can pull up that say that he didn't have a great year. But he did have a lot of work. I think he's still going to have a lot of work. And for whatever it's worth, he was tied with, I believe it was Taylor, as the most consistent fantasy running back. What does that mean? It means that he had 13 games

with at least 15 PPR points. That means he was good for your lineup every week, no matter what. So if he's going to be more efficient than he was last year, he's going to get the same opportunity, and that line is better, and he was consistent last year,

why can't he check all of those boxes this year and be a top five running back with a chance to flirt if the touchdowns really swing his way. He could be the RB one. There've been some other running backs who have had terrible yards per carry worse than Najee Harris 3.9 last year is not good, but Melvin Gordon as a rookie 3.5 Christian McCaffrey was 3.7. Le'Veon Bell averaged 3.5 yards per carry as a rookie.

He improved to 4.7 in 2014. So I just don't really think it should matter personally. No, you have to hope that Najee is like that and not like Trent Richardson. Yeah. That's what we're going to hope for. Any final thoughts on Najee Harris, Jamie? No, again, if the receptions come down,

he's going to be bad. Bad? All right right let's let's specify bad for a top five pick so he had said he had what how many catches last year 90 it's 74 74 94 targets what if they come down to 60 no he should still be fine. Okay. Okay. But I mean, like, if we're talking about the crater. Yeah, that would be bad. Yeah. 26% of his fantasy point total was just based on catches last year. That's a lot. That's a lot.

You need, you're looking for efficiency to rebound. Okay. All right, guys. Thank you. Good discussion on the top five running backs. There is some news that I'm going to have to save for tomorrow. Damian Pierce, Michael Gallup, Austin Hooper, Terrace Marshall. We'll talk about some reports about those guys on tomorrow's show. I think I'm going to change the topic tomorrow. It's supposed to be a top five wide receiver

discussion. I think we should do the top five wide receivers after the top three. So four through eight, basically. What are we going to do? Debate the top three again? No. So I think we might do it that way. I'll let you know. Thank you to Jamie and Dave and everybody for watching and listening. I'm Adam.

Have a great day, everybody. We'll see you on Thursday.