Fantasy Football Today - Top 5 TEs! Andrews or Ertz? Who's #5? (06/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 25, 2020

Let's see what ADP is telling us about the Top 5 TEs. You can guess who the first two are, but how much better are Travis Kelce and George Kittle than the rest of the pack? And the guys debate Mark Andrews vs. Zach Ertz (6:15) ... TE Fill in the Blank! The Top 5 TE (other than Kelce) with the most upside (14:30) and most downside. The Top 5 TE we just won't draft (18:23). The Top 5 TE with the least upside (21:54) ... More questions about this group of stud TEs. Is Kelce over Kittle really an easy decision (27:45)? Are we underrating Darren Waller (35:00)? And the guys make their cases for Tyler Higbee and Evan Engram as TE5 in the rankings (39:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Well, if you're in a PPR league and you're trying to figure out which tight end should go number one, why not pick the guy who's finished number one four're in a PPR league and you're trying to figure out which tight end should go number one, why not pick the guy who's finished number one four years in a row? That would be Travis Kelsey. And that's what average draft position is telling us now. But you know what? George Kittle was just as good on a per-game basis last year.

He did, however, miss two games. We are looking at the top five tight ends in average draft position and in our consensus rankings i'm adam azer with dave richard with ben gretch with heath cummings and guys you got to know when to hold them sing it no wonderful all right hey welcome to the winner's circle we now have two former poker champions on the podcast. Former poker champions? What does that mean? Well, I mean, you won last night.

I won three weeks ago. Maybe someone else will win. I mean, we're the only two people that have ever won. That's true, but I'm not the former poker champion. I was trying to figure out what your point was, Heath, because I clearly beat Adam. He just had to quit. So we had to split the pot. I was forced to. You. He just had to quit. So we had to split the pot. I was forced to.

You had a clear path to victory and you did not know when to hold him, know when to fold him. You folded to his request. You should have just made him lined out and you would have won the tournament. By the way, you must think that the Falcons beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl by your

logic. It wasn't even that big of a blow. You literally quit. I Falcons beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl by your logic. That's kind of... It wasn't even that big of a blow. But anyway. You literally quit. I mean, if the Patriots quit, then... Right. The Falcons say, hey, let's just end this thing right now. There was no victor in tournament two. That much has been established. No one won the second tournament.

I think when one person quits, it says we have to split the pot. Yeah, but then I end up winning. Okay, so anyway, here's ADP right now. Top five tight ends. Do not talk about poker on Twitch from yesterday. Travis. That was your best showing yet, Dave.

What do you mean? You're getting better. I love it. You might win one. But something good came out of it, Dave. We're donating a little bit of money to a local food bank. So that's good stuff. Travis Kelsey is going 21st overall.

This is on NFC average draft. George Kittle is going 26th. And then you got to wait a long time. Mark Andrews, 52nd. Zach Ertz, 54th. Darren Waller, 66th. Kelsey and Kittle. Kittle is 26th.

Kelsey, 21. Kittle, 26th. And then Andrews and Ertz are 52nd and 54th, respectively. And Darren Waller is 66th. What's your overall reaction to that, guys? Sounds about right to me. I think you might end up seeing Kelsey go a little sooner than that in regular redraft leagues, PPR leagues this fall.

But otherwise, that's the order. Certainly at the top kelsey then kittle both top 30 picks and then i i really think there does seem to be some um traction to andrews going ahead of urts i'm not there yet i would still take urts ahead of andrews but they're going to be really close to each other and if you can get either one in round five you're killing it yeah i like andrews and urts my biggest takeaway from from this group is just that darren waller as a tight end five goes too high at 66 i think uh we saw this last year there's some elite tight ends and then it's just natural that drafts aren't going to go three or four rounds without anyone drafting a tight end. So somebody's got to go in the round after Ertz.

But I think Waller is a significant step down from the Andrews and Ertz tier, and everyone from that point forward is a significant step down. And so it's that middle range from tight end five to probably tight end nine that I probably won't draft the tight end in that range of drafts all year because I just think that's one of the least, you know, EV positives, people would say, expected value positive moves you can make in drafts because I think you can go after these elite guys and then I think you can wait until really late. Waller, I have moved all over the place.

I think I have him seventh right now, but every time I look at my tight end rankings, I move him. And the difference between him and that group of guys, because I mostly agree with what Ben said, we just push up the next tier of guys and say, well, look at what they could be. That's what we were doing last year with Evan Ingram, with Hunter Henry, with OJ Howard,

and they had a lot of great markings of what could be the difference with Waller is he's put up an 1100 yard season those guys had not done that before so like he's already shown us something more than what those guys had in their career I I have ranked him in PPR as high as number three I wouldn't be surprised if Darren Waller finishes number three this year. But I also think he could fall off quite a bit. And there's significant risk. And he had a 16-game season, Darren Waller, and he caught 90 balls, 90 catches. I think Andrews played 15 games. His 16-game pace, I think, was 68 catches. That's a 22-catch difference based on last year in PPR, if we're specifically talking about that so i gave you the adp it was kelsey kittle andrews earths waller our consensus rankings are slightly

different kelsey kittle earths andrews waller followed by hunter henry followed by tyler higby we'll focus on the top like let's just clarify something i I don't know if Dave is getting extra points for his rankings or what, but I think I have Andrew's third. Jamie has Andrew's third. Dave has Earth's third. We all have the other guy fourth. I don't know why Zach Ertz would be number three in our consensus rankings, but Mark Andrews is number three in our consensus rankings.

Okay, fair enough. I'm not. This was a spreadsheet that was given to me ratings okay fair enough i'm not this was a spreadsheet that was given to me so fair enough i wonder when was it given to you last week okay so i wonder if if jamie made a change there there's hanging chads or something but okay so kelsey kittle andrews earths waller and considering considering Andrews is a lower catch guy, at least he was last year, and Ertz has been 85-plus catches pretty reliably,

he also might have a 20-catch edge on Andrews. Does Andrews... Let's talk about that. Does Andrews deserve to be ranked ahead of Zach Ertz? Andrews is the closest thing to Kittle. We talked about this on the... I guess the Advanced Stat Show and also we mentioned him on...

a show where we talked about slot usage. And Andrews and Kittle... We talked a lot about routes run with the tight ends andrews and kittle are very interesting because neither runs anywhere near the amount of routes that kelsey and ertz run they're they're like the top two in the league and kittle and andrews are around like ninth or tenth but their teams both use a lot of deception and scheme looks for them play action and get them open um and so they both see a lot of targets per route they lead the league by quite a bit in targets per out both of them

and they're both very efficient on their targets and i think what that says to me especially for andrews this year is that there's a lot of upside for him to grow because when we talked about the slot um in the slot episode we talked about andrews playing in the slot a lot a really high percentage and also hayden hearst did and it was a positive note for hayden hearst because austin hooper had in atlanta and her should slide into that role well well in atlanta but it also was a good indication that baltimore rotated their tight ends a lot last year they used um nick boyle and they and they used hearst uh as kind of a a backup to

andrews and spelled him a little there's a possibility andrews just runs a lot more routes this year and plays more of that hearst role they didn't really bring anyone else in you know they always liked hertz they drafted hearst ahead of andrews in the same draft a couple of years back um but now they don't really have anyone they've brought in some more tight end depth but they don't really have anyone. They've brought in some more tight end depth, but they don't really have anyone that's going to compete with Andrews for those tight end slot routes that they like to use. It wouldn't surprise me if Andrews suddenly

jumps up in those routes now, still has a pretty high target per route rate, still has a lot of efficiency on his targets, and all of a sudden he's a lot better. Yeah, I think that's like the flip side of that is yes, Zachert's caught 100 plus passes two years ago, and he ended up last year with 88 catches. But it was basically all in games where Alshon Jeffrey didn't play. And I don't know for sure that Alshon Jeffrey is going to be back to himself this year, that the Eagles are talking as if they expect he's going to play

this year. But the Sean Jackson sounds like he's pretty much a full go for the start of camp. They've got Jalen Rager. They've got Marquise Goodwin. Like they have more enough wide receivers now to where a lot of guys would have to get hurt for Greg Ward to be their only wide receiver. And that was really the only time when Ertz acted as if that number one target for Philadelphia last year. So I think the split with Ertz and Goddard at tight end and the fact that the Eagles are probably going to throw

40 fewer passes to their tight ends than they did last year really makes me concerned about him being an 80-catch guy. I think he could be a 70-catch guy. The problem is he's not been elite on a per-target basis like Kelsey, Kittle, andrews and waller all were last year and have been he's about a seven and a half yards per target guy and if he's just getting seven targets per game that's not going to be enough okay that's on the low side for it's seven and a half targets per game i think he's done that once in the last four years

well yeah that's that's about where he was in games where Alshon played last year. I don't think Alshon is going to be a big enough factor this year. He's still banged up. The team is saying that he's on his own schedule to get back. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if he started the year on the pup

list and then made a minimal impact when he came back. Jackson and Rager will have a bigger impact than Greg Ward, presumably. No question. But I almost wonder if those guys... So when I think of Mark Andrews, I think of him as a great target for Lamar Jackson in the short to mid-range.

You don't see a lot of deep balls go to Mark Andrews. You see those go to other receivers, although he gets some. I think Ertz is going to be used the same way. I think as far as being the primary guy inside of 10 to 15 yards, that's where Ertz has been. And I think that's where he's going to continue to be for Philadelphia. And he's been reliable in that regard. And it's basically the biggest reason why I've got Ertz ahead of andrews he's going to get more targets per game he's reliably done it pretty much certainly the last four seasons i was going to say his entire career i don't know if that's entirely true because at the beginning it took

him a little while to get going but he's a good player big red zone threat teams try and slow him down i don't think teams are going to have an easy job double teaming him and then and dealing with jackson rager and all the other weapons in Philadelphia. And I think Philadelphia's offense is going to move the ball effectively again. So to me, it's a simple argument for Ertz. We've seen him do it a ton of times. The target share is going to be there for him. Nowhere is he near as explosive as Mark Andrews, and I can't make that argument. But I can see him being just as good in terms of touchdowns with more targets can i tell you something kind of strange heath because i've been throwing out that uh stat for zackerts those

splits with and without alshon jeffrey the amount of targets he's gotten but how about this i just did this math so i i think it's right carson wentz played all 16 games, eight with Jeffrey, eight without Jeffrey. Now, without Jeffrey includes games in which Alshon left early. He attempted 270 passes without Alshon Jeffrey in the games. No, no, no. With Alshon Jeffrey. 270 pass attempts with Alshon Jeffrey, without Alshon Jeffrey, 337. So he was just throwing a lot more in those eight games without Alshon Jeffery. Of course, it has nothing to do with Alshon Jeffery, but it's a little bit of coincidence.

So if you just want to look, instead of targets per game, if you want to look at target share per game, which I did before the show, Zach Ertz had a 21.5% target share with Alshon Jeffrey and a 25.9% target share without Alshon Jeffrey. So it was a big

difference. But I just thought that was weird. They threw so much more in the games that Jeffrey didn't play. But the target share went from 26% to 21.5% when Jeffrey played. So there's that. But Dave already kind of gave his reason. I was just going to look and see where I've got Tim, if I can find my going to look and see where I've got him,

if I can find my Eagles projections here. I think I've probably got him at like 23 or 24. I've got him at 21, actually. So right where he was with Alshon last year. Okay, and that would be lower than the other guys were talking about, at least what their target shares were last year, where Kittle's been like a 26% guy. Kelsey's been like a 24% guy. Kelsey's been like a 24% guy.

All right, so that's one debate that we'll have today. Let's do a little bit of fill in the blank. We also have to just debate Kelsey versus Kittle. Even though everybody's got Kelsey number one, we should still talk about that. We don't have to do that. Look, I'll at least play devil's advocate or somebody

else will. I do want to promote our Facebook group though. Join our Facebook group. Search Fantasy Football Today on Facebook or the link is also in the episode description. And if you're listening on our podcast, click on the link and join the Facebook group. It's great. Post some topics in there all the time. Get your feedback on it. And in fact, we're looking to do a top five on tomorrow's show, on Friday's show. I asked in the Facebook group, what should our top five be? So I'll try to pick the best response from there. You can also ask keeper questions,

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And finally, we do have the mailbag on Friday, so we'll be using Apple Podcast questions and emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Time for fill in the blank. The top five tight end with the most upside. Probably should eliminate the first two from this, right? Let's make this a three through five or a three and beyond discussion top five top five tight

end with the most upside that's not kelsey or kittle anderson hurts top five tight end with the most downside is blank waller whoever the fifth tight end is no matter what rankings you're looking at consensus an individual that fifth end, that's the one. Yeah, I think it has to be Waller. Now, look, I like Mark Andrews. So when I give this statistic, don't think that I don't like him, but I have to give this because when I talk about what Jared Cook did in the last eight games of the season,

he was the number one tight end in non-PPR, number two in PPR. That was after Drew Brees returned and after he himself returned from injury. I always get, yeah, but look at the targets, right? He had 537 yards and seven touchdowns and only 38 targets. Look what Mark Andrews did in his last eight games. He had 28 catches, same as Cook.

403 yards. Cook had 537 more. Big, big difference. And they both had seven touchdowns. And Cook and Andrews only had five more targets than Cook. Wait. Cook had 500 more yards? No, no.

Sorry. He didn't. 537 for Cook, 403 for Andrews. Okay. Sorry. But they both had seven touchdowns. Andrews only had five more targets. That's only at 86 target pace in the last eight games of the season,

so why do I get so much pushback on liking Jared Cook? I like him as like a 12. Andrews only played seven of those games, right? No. He played 15 games. I separated them, his first seven and his last eight, after their bye. Well, the obvious big difference is Mark Andrews was really good before that.

Jared Cook was nothing before that. Yeah, Bridgewater. And extend that not just to the first half of the season, but career. Jared Cook had a career high yards per target last year by over a yard. He had a career high touchdown rate for

sure. He had a career high raw touchdowns. sure. He had career-high raw touchdowns, and he had nine touchdowns. I think his previous career was six or five. And Andrews the year before was also very productive in his first year, and then again in his second year. And very clearly is this progressing player going into age 24, third season,

with a really strong track record now, whereas Cook, you're pulling a half-season sample that is the best half-season of his career. So the question is not... It's really more like, do you see volume downside, target volume downside for Andrews? Are we overlooking it? Because I know you see it for Jared Cook,

but do you also see it for Andrews? I don't think his target share is going to go down. I don't... They just don't throw that much. I don't think he's going to buy half a down. I don't know. They just don't throw that much. Half a target per game, maybe a full target per game. His target share might go down, but they're going to throw more. And one other thing that we probably don't talk about quite enough, the Ravens had three or four different games last year

where they pulled their starters in the third quarter because they were just trouncing a team so badly. That's probably not going to happen again. The question is fair about Andrews, that this is a run-heavy team. They're not going to throw a ton. He's not going to be a 150-target guy, obviously. But I would also echo what both Dave and Heath just said

and just add in that I think basically what he did last year is closer to his floor, especially now that Hurst has been removed. Except for the touchdowns. Yeah, targets. Target floor. I just don't see a lot of scenarios where Andrews plays a healthy 16 games this year and sees fewer targets.

He could be less efficient. He had 98 targets in 15 games. Okay, next question. The top five tight end that I won't draft is blank. Waller. Waller's the consensus tight top five tight end that I won't draft. I'll say Ertz. Just because he generally goes before Andrews,

and I can usually just say when Ertz goes, I'll draft Andrews. You know, another name I'd be willing to say is Kelsey because I know his ADP on NFC is 21st, and if he's there, I'm going to take him, but I would expect to see him go between 10th and 16th in most drafts. What

I know about the tight end position and how comfortable I am with it, I don't mind waiting. I don't want to be the guy that takes the first tight end on draft. The only thing is, and I was just looking at this, Kelsey, I think the worst season he had in the last four years, he outscored the number six, so the average starting tight end, by 60 fantasy points.

He has been such an advantage every single year. And he still has Patrick Mahomes. He does, but there's another tight end who's practically as good as he is in George Kittle. He's going like four picks later. You're not choosing between those two. If you're

passing on... If they're both there at 21st, I'm going to take Kelsey over. I agree with you. I guess I shouldn't have said I don't want to be the first guy to take a tight end i just don't want to take a tight end early on i don't want to pass up the talent that i can get between 10th and 16th overall at receiver and running back so when we get a good tight end in early round four if i really wanted to maybe even late round five if i really wanted to. When we do drafts, I think Kelsey and Kittle are going earlier than their ADP. Kelsey 21st, Kittle 26th. And in that case, you really could be sitting there saying,

okay, it's late in the second round. I could take Kelsey here or I could take a running back or a wide receiver and gamble that Kittle will be there in round three, which is understandable. However, in our draft, it's more like the end of round one and you either have to take Kelsey now, or you're not getting either Kelsey or Kittle by the end of round three. So they just seem to go earlier in our dress. But if,

if Kittle's ADP is really 26th, then you legitimately could be asking yourself in the second round, do I take Kelsey now or do I gamble and hope Kittle is available to be with my third pick, which is an interesting dilemma. You add in Dave's comments and point about feeling comfortable grabbing a late tight end. I think that's pushing Kelsey and Kittle's ADP down in places like NFC where I think just purely on value

and for the reasons that he know he just said about how consistently good Kelsey's been he's a first round pick he's a top 10 player I mean he's such a difference maker at tight end and we feel so confident in him but like just what the points he can get you at a tight end position would indicate maybe not value is the right word but there's so many other options at that position and potential upside. And we've seen so many breakout players come from late in drafts, including Darren Waller last year and several others. It's hard to justify relative to the drop off at other positions. And just to put a little bow on that, Travis Kelsey has been a top 12 wide receiver three

years in a row in both formats. He was as good as Allen Robinson last year. All right. Then let me ask you one more fill in the blank. A new one just came up with this one. I don't know how, but I didn't have it in the notes. The top five tight end with the least upside is blank. Ertz.

Ertz. I'll say Waller. Yeah. Yeah, I guess Waller, but... Yeah. I don't know, because I think Waller could have as many targets as Ertz, and he was a lot more efficient than Ertz has ever been last year. I don't see it.

I think the Raiders made a big point to improve their receiving core in the draft. So did the Eagles. Yeah, not as much. Yeah, but Ertz has been better than Waller. When you talk about their absolute upside, Waller's just probably close to what he did last year or a little bit more. I'd be stunned if he did that again this year. 90 catches again?

I would be stunned if Waller did that. I would be too, but maybe that's his upside. My point is just that Ertz has already had like 116 catch season, whereas Waller had 117 targets. Which I don't think he should have. Yeah, I don't either, but I just... Yeah, when you talk about upside, Ertz has done a lot more. We will debate

at least ADP-wise. Kelsey in round two or Kittle in round three. I'm going to talk more about Darren Waller because you know what? Maybe he's just a better football player than we're giving him credit for. It's a very elite list of tight ends who have done what Darren Waller did last year. All that's coming up right after this on Fantasy Football Today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale with no preset spending limit.

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When Miller Lite set out to brew a light beer, they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can. They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer. Your game time tastes like Miller time. Learn more at MillerLite.ca. Must be legal drinking age. So give me your top five guys in PPR. Heath, you can start.

Top five in PPR. Kelsey, Kittle, Andrews, Ertz, and basically a three-way tie, but currently Evan Ingram. Dave? Ingram fifth. That's interesting. I will go Kelsey, Kittle, Ertz, Andrews, and Higbeast.

Ben? I have Kelsey, Kittle. I'm not going to take a side on the Ertz-Andrews debate. I literally cannot decide between them. No, no, no. I won't pick one before the other. And if I miss them both, then I miss them both. That's how I play it.

It's round seven in your draft. Somehow they're both still there. PPR, who are you taking? Especially in PPR, I can't decide. Andrews, I would take a non-ppr for sure it's this is your job ben i'm looking for this piece of advice someone's decision will be made based on what you say right now i mean i have had urts over andrews and until that all that slot stuff that i talked about earlier and that's what has really got me more excited about Andrews. And now I got him so close.

I can't break the tie right now. I will eventually. I don't like Andrews is the way you're going. You've got like 15 minutes to break the tie. We'll come back to you on that. It sounds like I'm feeling Andrews more. He's the one that's rising for me, but Ertz is also the one that I felt more comfortable in for most of the offseason, and I

don't want to just throw him to the scrap. Who's your number five? Five is Ingram, which it has been all offseason and he just copied me. That's kind of true. Next time, I'm just going to say I'm not making a rankings choice. I don't have to. I'm going to wait until midway

through this. Go back to the wide receiver. I'll tell you which one I liked better. You know what I never know about, Zach? I never remember. Is it Z-A-C-K or C-H? It's an H, right? It's an H. I'm putting a Twitter poll up here. Can I just say something about Zach Ertz? It's not nice.

What? I'm just not sure that he's that special anymore. Who, Ertz? I kind of think they might be better off throwing the ball 130 times to Dallas Goddard and throwing it 60 times to Zach Ertz. I think the Eagles feel a little

differently. Doesn't do much with the targets that he gets. And again, when they had receivers last year, they didn't really treat him like an elite tight end. Would you argue that he could have a better year in terms of efficiency this year now that there's speed on the outside that defenses have to respect?

Whereas when all the receivers were hurt last year, it made it pretty easy. On third down, we're just going to cover up hurts as best as we can. And that might have been the reason why Goddard ended up having some nice. I would hope so, because he was legitimately bad last year. So I think he could be average again. Legitimately bad. Legitimately inefficient. 6.8 yards per target.

He'd been at least 7.5 to 8 every other year of his career pretty much. So yeah, I think he can get back to that. I think 7.5 is pretty close to average for a tight end. I think he can get back to that. But it's not compared to these other guys because I put down yards per target. I rank them one through five. Mark Andrews has been at 11 and 8.7 in two seasons. George

Kittle, career 9.6. The last two years, he's been 10.1 and 9.8. Darren Waller, 9.8 yards per target in 2019. Travis Kelsey, career 9.0 right around there every time. Zach Ertz, career 7.5. He's just, compared to the rest of these elite tight ends,

he's the worst per catch. He's the worst per target. We do have to know depth of target, especially for Kelsey and Andrews. They see further downfield targets, and especially for Ertz, who sees like six yards of depth on average per target. And then Waller and Kittle.

What's that? I think Waller was really low on depth per target. Waller and Kittle are a little different story. Waller had a big yak season, yards after the catch, and Kittle has had a big yak career. I mean, Kittle is just a yak monster. Those guys are adding stuff after the catch, which Ertz isn't. But part

of yards per target in general, we do have to acknowledge the depth of the target. You just heard two people on this show say that Evan Ingram is their fifth tight end, yet you heard me say that Ingram is not top five in our consensus rankings. Jamie's rankings

are factored in here, and Ben's are yours? I don't think they are, right? I don't think so. So that's the answer to that. Ingram is actually eighth in our consensus rankings based on the spreadsheet I'm looking at, which might not be any good anyway, but it doesn't matter. Let's get back to these debates. Okay. So just tell me quickly, why is it not really a debate? Travis Kelsey over Kittle when per game they were dead even last

year and Kittle, the two games he missed were against the two best matchups in fantasy. So I straight up guarantee you, he would have been the best tight end in fantasy last year if he had played those two games. Because one of them has been the best in football for the last four years, and one of them you have to come up with a convoluted argument for why he would have been better. No, I don't think so. It's not that convoluted. He's younger.

Four years of actual things versus one year of Acer stats. Look, George Kittle was amazing in 2018, okay? He set the record most yards by a tight end. He just didn't have a touchdown. I don't think this is as obvious as Heath is making it. I'll just come out and cut. Well, I do, actually. I think it's obviously Kelsey, but I've had fun with it.

Kittle's entering his age 27 season. He's right in the middle of his prime. Kelsey's entering his age 31 season. He's done it four years in a row, but he's not going to do it until he's 50 years old i mean at some point players drop off and i'm not saying he's going to but miko hardman came on big last year they brought back sammy watkins it's possible that kelsey's role trends down a little bit as he gets to 31 and maybe it's more like 32 or 33 and we're gonna have to worry about in 2020 but i'm i'm more

concerned about that with kelsey than i am with kittle who is you know now debo samuel's banged up kittle's going he's right in his prime i mean i think that torch is going to get passed at some point it might be 2021 but it's not crazy dave you want to weigh in kelsey's got the better quarterback he's got the better track record he plays in an offense where defenses like i was saying with philadelphia defenses have to do something about the deep ball with tyreek hill on the field man it's kelsey sees so much open space they scheme it well for him and he finds it all the time i i think that he's the number one. Yeah, I think Kel's the number one, too. Yeah, I think the Mahomes argument,

this is the fact that the Chiefs could throw for so many more touchdowns, and touchdowns are an issue for Kittle. Three seasons under Kyle Shanahan, no players had more than six touchdown catches. And you look back at his entire career as a coach or a coordinator, there's not a single double digit touchdown catch season. Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, and so on. It's not like those grow on

trees, but it's been like 10 years or something of coaching and not one player's had double digit touchdown catches. A little strange. Imagine that the guy that uses seven running backs likes to diversify his passing game. But at the same time, if I really can get Kittle in round three

instead of Kelsey in round two, would you do that? Would you rather make that trade-off? The end of round two is basically the same thing as the beginning of round three. So I can get the same running backs and receivers at the beginning of round three as I can at the end of round two. So I'd probably just take Kelsey.

I think the bigger decision here is, all right, I'm picking in slot 10, slot 11, slot 12. And I know that neither tight end will be there when I'm up in late round three. Kittle, maybe if it's a miracle, I can't count on it. So do I love Kelsey so much to the point that I will take him where I know he'll be there because I know I can't get Kittle at another point? That's the conversation you have to have with yourself when you're evaluating tight end and you're picking late in the draft. It's a more interesting question if you're picking at six or seven

because you're not going to take Kelsey in round one unless you're crazy. And then in round two, you would probably hope that Kelsey would be there, but isn't that a little too early to take Kittle? Are you running the risk of you're going to cross your fingers that Kittle will be there in round three? Am I making sense? Do you understand what I'm saying? Yeah, but let me give you a decision.

Just the tight end decision with one of your first three picks. It's kind of easy if you're on the ends because you figure Kittle will have a chance to get to you in late round two or early round three if you're picking in the early slots like if you get McCaffrey in round one or Saquon and then if you're picking late Kelsey is more in line but if you're in the middle

you might have to make some tough decisions on what you want to do at tight end I think Adam wants us to live in the ADP world and not in the our drafts world a little bit everybody's drafts world we don't know that I just give you a representative of other people's drafts I would think so let me give you everybody's drafts world we don't know that i just give you a more representative of other people's drafts i would think so all right let me give you an adp example that is there are hundreds of those and and dozens of ours let

me give you an adp example how many drafts have you guys been travis kelsey has been past 16th not a lot i well that's true but i i mean our set of examples is much, much smaller than the overall ADP of people playing for money. Yeah, I don't know what to tell you. I know you haven't been able to hear me because we're having some audio issues. I know Dave was interrupting me a little bit. That was not on purpose. But let me give you this real quick, this ADP example. Would you rather have Chris Godwin and George Kittle or Mike Evans and Travis Kelsey?

Mike Evans and Travis Kelsey. And the reason I just did a whole thing on Kittle, a whole little rant, but the reason I will still always have Kelsey ahead, especially right now is all the things I said about Andrews and Kittle not running as many routes, and I feel like Andrews could take up. Kittles is very clearly, I think at this point, not going to. They use him as a blocker. He's such an effective blocker. He's such a good all-around player that he's not going to need to run more routes. Andrews is this slot guy that they don't really use as this big-time blocker.

That's the reason for them running lower routes is different. Kittle, Kelsey, meanwhile, is this every year among the top routes run type tight end who has a higher average depth of target as well and catching plays, you know, balls down the field from Mahomes, whereas Kittle relies on yards after the catch, like I said, and that can be a little more fluky. So I really like Kittle, but I still think Kelsey just running way more routes, running routes more downfield. Those things are just all more conducive to more fantasy success.

Okay, Dave and Heath, it's Kittle and Godwin or Kelsey and Evans. Who do you take? PPR, I'm going to take Godwin, the Godwin-Kittle combo. Non-PPR, I'll go the other way. I'll go Kelsey Evans in both. Okay, let me ask you guys.

We've talked a lot about Waller and Ertz. Let me ask you about Darren Waller. Sorry, we talked about Andrews and Ertz. Let me ask you about Darren Waller. Doesn't seem like you guys are super thrilled about him, but we don't really know what he was before last year for a variety of reasons, suspension and whatnot.

He was a wide receiver, converted wide receiver. It's possible he's one of the more talented tight ends in football. I'm worried you guys are selling him a little bit short on a talent level. I know you're concerned about the targets and the offensive weapons that they added, but maybe he's not much of a they added but maybe he's it's not

much of a question but maybe he's just awesome i guess is what i'm trying to say about waller where i come out on waller is it's it's kind of speaking out of both sides of my mouth ultimately i think his targets are going to go down because the raiders have added so much talent but part of the allure for henry Ruggs joining the Raiders is having him speed downfield to open things up underneath for guys like Waller, who is just a humongous target who can make moves after the catch. So maybe the argument is, okay, we know his targets are going to go down. How much will they go down? and could the rise in efficiency make up for and the rise of efficiency could also come into play in the red zone because he only scored three times

last year i think that's something that just has to be measured and considered talent wise um i think the raiders have harnessed it i think they know what what to do with him. He has a very wide range of outcomes because while I do think it's more likely as targets go down than up, I'm projecting him to get fewer targets. The Raiders threw like 523 passes last year. That was about 10% below the league median. I would expect them to throw more passes. I do expect him to score more touchdowns. So I mostly agree with you, Adam. I think he's awesome.

He could finish anywhere from three through 10, and I wouldn't be that surprised. I don't know exactly what the Raiders are doing, as usual. I agree with all three of you. I mean, I think, Adam, I've realized over the offseason that I've probably been a little too Raiders are doing as usual. I agree with all three of you. I mean, I think Adam I've, I've realized over the off season that I've probably been a little too harsh on how good he was talent wise. I agree with Heath.

The range of outcomes is wide. And then days I totally agree with and kind of want to expand on a little. I, I, I, the, the rugs point is a very strong one and it could mean that Waller's just their guy again underneath.

It would be very similar to when Ertz started breaking out, when the Eagles started being this air raid vertical offense. Not air raid. That's when air yards became a big thing in Eagles Twitter and Eagles blogs. They were calling the air yards offense because they were very vertical. Carson Wentz was throwing downfield a ton, but it was opening up so much on the intermediate range for urts to just rack up you know those really catchable targets and a lot of receptions that could certainly happen

for waller but then the this the next level that i'm also worried about is well they brought in jason whitton and they've talked a little bit about using two two tight end sets uh i don't think whitton would assign there after coming out of retirement a year ago to not play, and I feel like Gruden would be honest with him about that. And then they also have Hunter Renfro, who impacted Waller's targets pretty substantially when he was healthy late in the year. And typically we see that with slot receivers and tight ends. They're both running those short area and intermediate area routes.

And, you know, formationally, when you have a slot receiver on the field, you have fewer tight ends. So having a decent slot receiver impacts Waller as well. So it's like all of these factors where I could see, like he said,

the upside would be rugs and everything help build the passing game through Waller as their main target. Cause I see how good he was last year. Like Adam said, or they've added so much, so much weaponry and so much talent that even though they're going to build that way, they have other options to throw to,

they can throw to run pro and they can use what now to tight end sets. And now Waller's targets come way down. It's just, it's a wild one to try to figure out. And he, none of you have him number five. So let's talk about that. Make the case Heath and, for Evan Ingram,

Dave for Tyler Higbee, and then we'll read a few emails and get on out of here. First, the case for Evan Ingram, Heath. No. I'm taking the Ben approach here. I'm going to steal it. It's your job. In my overall rankings,

I have Evan Ingram, Hunter Henry and darren waller back to back to back um like i get so excited about the potential of evan ingram and thinking he might actually be the more downfield option and then i look at how they've used him in recent history i think about how garrett used tight ends like he targeted him lot, generally within four or five yards of the line of scrimmage, and that's the way Ingram has been used. I think there's potential for Ingram. I can't make a case for him over Waller. I switch them every time

I do. I'm going to switch them right now so I don't have to. Okay. So much crap for having Ertz and Andrews in the same situation and then he went with the same situation. You know what? He just talked through it, and he's made a decision. It sounds like he's going to put Waller fifth. Waller's going back to fifth.

Good job, Pete. I don't mind Waller over Ingram. You know, I'm worried about Ingram just being there. He's had so many issues staying on and off the field that I almost don't want to deal with the headache. The risk, especially if he's the fifth tight end off the board, the risk isn't worth the reward. Okay, Ben, convince us. Evan Ingram, fifth. I just think the ceiling is higher

than definitely Waller and arguably any other tight end after that point, including guys like Rob Gronkowski, who could be amazing, I guess. We don't really know what to expect from him. But Ingram, 4'3", 4'3", 40, just ridiculous athleticism for a tight end. He's essentially a wide receiver playing tight end. When he came out, we knew right away he was going to have a huge receiving profile and be that type of player. He's actually been used in line more than I think a lot of people expected, not really just a slot guy. And they've talked about him being a decent enough blocker,

even though he's not, you know, as big as some other tight ends. But yeah, just an incredible athlete. And he's been very productive and drawn a lot of targets when he's been healthy. So I just, I understand the injury prone element, but I i just feel very very confident that when he plays 16 games and that it will happen at some point players don't you know get injury prone for their entire career or at least some do i guess but i i am hoping that it won't happen to ingram i guess and when if and when he plays 16 games he he'll be very good. I mean, he played 15 as a rookie. He got 115 targets. That's like Darren Waller numbers last year in terms of volume and his yards per target weren't amazing, but he was very good that year. And then he's just been banged up the last two years. I think if he's healthy, this is the guy that can

compete for a top three or top four spot in the end of season rankings. I have a question. Would you just looking at their profiles coming out of college, would you say that Evan Ingram is a better athlete than Darren Waller? I would. I haven't looked at Waller's profile for long enough. He's so much older, but Waller was underrated good athlete. That's why he stuck around

even with some off the field stuff, right? Sure. I'm looking at their... Yeah, he's a really good athlete. He ran a 4.46. This has got Ingram at a 4.42. Right, and he was 20 pounds bigger. Right.

Yeah, I think you said, Ben, Ingram has more upside than all of them. I personally would say that Ingram and Waller have more upside than everyone that's ranked below them, not the guys ahead of them. I don't know that he has more upside than everyone that's ranked below them, not the guys ahead of them. I don't know that he has more upside than Waller, but I understand he certainly has a lot of upside. I mean, he and David Njoku and O.J. Howard, first-round side ends, ton of upside.

Great football players. The difference between him and a guy like O.J. Howard is when Ingram's been healthy, he's seen targets at a high rate. That's an important point. All right, Dave. Tyler Higby, we'll finish on this. I've made it clear all offseason long that I don't have a lock on who is fifth. For now, it's Higby who I feel most comfortable with.

He reminds me of Kittle. And late last year, we talked about this. He averaged over 11 targets per game. He's not going to do that this year in those final five games, but he was amazing. I think he helped kind of turn Jared Goff's season. I wouldn't say he turned it around because it really, you know, the Rams weren't, it really felt like the Rams weren't ever,

like, in the thick of things as far as the playoff race, because they had 10 wins, but I always felt like they were kind of just in neutral in that spot. You know what I'm saying? They were never contenders. If they snuck in, I don't think anybody was going to take them to win the Super Bowl. I guess the safest way to call it is that they were kind of contenders, but

no one seriously considered them strong contenders. But Goff, at least his fantasy numbers were better in those final five games. I think Higby was a big part of it. I think the Rams are going to keep him as a big part of their offense. I think they're going to run a ton of two tight end sets. And when they do go to three wide,

you're going to see more of Higby than you will of Everett. And I see a lot of explosive yards after contact plays from him. He averaged more yards after contract, yards after contact for a catch than Kelsey, then Ertz, then Andrews. It was like almost six yards. It was pretty incredible. And that's on the whole year,

not just in the final five games. I think he's got a lot of potential to finish as a top five tight end. That's why I've got him five. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com is the email address. Let's do it. From Cody in Syracuse. Dear Michael, Lincoln, Sucre, and Abruzzi.

It's prison break. Never seen it. Heard it's very good. I've been listening to the pod for a few years now. Since Ben Gretchen's joined the team, it's not hard to figure out his favorite players. This would be Ben's all in team quarterback, Matthew Stafford,

running backs are miles Sanders and Jonathan Taylor. Wide receivers are DJ Moore and AJ Brown. The flex is Ronald Jones. And the tight end is Mike Kosicki. I got to tell you, I've come around on Jones. There's unfortunately, and this is, this is good. Unfortunately, it's wrong. There's no way I would flex a running back in my all in team.

So that's Christian. Christian. It's you got, you left out, you know, Ridley and Juju and. Well, you can't get all the first players. Yeah, you don't get all the first. He gave you a first, a second, a third, and a fourth. Christian Kirk or Tyler Boyd. There's some later round guys that...

Christian Kirk would have fit very well. Yeah, yeah. Kirk could be your flex. That's pretty good. I think Kosicki's his backup tight end, personally. I think he took two tight ends. Well, Kosicki's his tight end for about two weeks until he has to stream somebody else.

No, he already knows. He already knows they open with the bills. They open with the bills of the Patriots. So, Ben already knows he's drafted two tight ends and stashing a sickie. From Devin, 10-team half PPR. Aaron Jones, seventh round. Melvin Gordon, 11th round. AJ Brown, 15th round.

Who does Devin keep in that group? I don't know how many, by the way, so just rank them as keepers. Aaron Jones, 7th round, Melvin Gordon, 11th round, AJ Brown, 15th round. I think it's Brown, especially if you can keep him for more than one year. Then who? I'd go Brown.

Followed by? This is a no brainer. Okay, it's Brown one. You're going to say Melvin Gordon, right? No, no. A.J. Brown is the no-brainer. Sorry, I was letting you guys answer first. Jones is second.

Jones is second. Jones is second. I'm taking Jones second, too. And an email from Tyler. I have Zeke and Barkley and Hill in a 10-team Dynasty League. Should I move one of the running backs to get younger guys for the future or play to win now?

Play to win now with those guys. You're still going to be able to get something really good for Zeke after this year, provided he doesn't have a bus fall on his foot or something like that. Yeah, it totally depends on the package. If you could move Zeke for in a dynasty league like this where you already have

Barkley for Jonathan Taylor plus another big piece, I would do it probably right now, but I think you can go for it like Dave said and wait and try and move him later. Yeah, I'd like to win this year. Okay. When you've got those guys winning. That's why you would trade for Jonathan Taylor.

He's basically Zeke. The guy who at one pound heavier and two inches shorter than Zeke, so much bigger, ran almost a tenth of a second faster 40 times, but he thinks doesn't have upside. I never said that. All right.

To be continued on Twitter. Oh, wait. Did Ben make a decision? Let's see what the Twitter folks said. Let's get a Mark Andrews versus Zacherts poll update. Ooh, it's very close. Zacherts, 51.8%. Mark Andrews, 48.2%, Ben.

I moved Andrews to Zacherts in the last 20 minutes. There it is. Okay, well, you're not listening to the Twitter followers, so that's kind of insulting. We will be back tomorrow with another top five. We don't know what it is yet, but it'll be fun. And your emails and your Apple podcast questions. Thanks for listening.

For Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, and Ben Gretsch, I'm Adam Azer. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today. No, no, no, no, no, no, no.