Fantasy Football Today - Top 5 TEs! Does Pitts Make the Cut? (06/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 24, 2021

A lot to debate as we talk about our Top 5 TEs! We're joined by Pat Fitzmaurice of FootballGuys to discuss the TE position including why he has Mark Andrews 6th overall behind Kyle Pitts and T.J. Hockenson (2:15). Then Adam will make the case for Travis Kelce as early as third overall in PPR (10:25) ... Dave and Pat rank their Top 3 TEs (17:15). Is it George Kittle or Darren Waller third overall? Then we rank the rest of the Top 5 (well, actually the Top 7) (23:00) and debate Mark Andrews vs. T.J. Hockenson (25:30) ... Which TE ranked outside of the Top 3 has the most upside? Most downside (31:22)? New York or Chicago-style pizza (38:30)? And who are some potential breakouts at TE (45:30)? Irv Smith? Tyler Higbee? ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. What's going on? We are finishing up our Rankings Week of the Top 5 at East Position with Tight End, or as our guest Pat Fitzmaurice called it before we started recording, the Glamour Position. We could have given you Kicker, I guess, but thank you for coming out to talk Tight End, Pat. Welcome to the show. Adam, thanks for having me.

Great to be on with you and Dave, and good to know you guys don't hold grudges. I know my Wisconsin Badgers beat your Miami Hurricanes in a couple of back-to-back bowl games a few years ago. Glad you guys have put aside any petty grievances and were kind enough to have me on. Yeah, notice that we haven't had anybody with an Ohio State background on the podcast in the last 15 years, and it's rare when anybody from Florida State's program comes on the show. So we can forgive Wisconsin for sure. I always liked Wisconsin. I don't know why.

The Badger looks kind of like a badass. Oh, actually, funny story. I went to that one bowl game. Actually, this was, I think they've beaten Miami in like three bowl games in the last six years or something, right?

I went to one of them and we saw these Miami fans and these Wisconsin fans like getting into like a little verbal tiff before the game. And the Wisconsin fan said something and the Miami fan goes,

what the hell is a badger anyway we were like oh my god he does not represent us he does not represent us anyway pat i mean not only is it a badger which is a tough animal but he's wearing a turtleneck and no pants like you gotta have a lot of stones to do. That is a gutsy sartorial choice right there. Indeed. So you can follow Pat on Twitter at Fitz, F-I-T-Z underscore F-F. He is the host of the Fitz on Fantasy podcast. He's on Football Guys. He contributes to thefootballgirl.com.

And he is a terrific analyst. And he does not have Mark Andrews in his top five, right? Is that correct? That's correct. Chest out. Chest out. Now, is that a full PPR thing or is that in any format? That's any format.

No real change in the top six with that. All right. So let's talk about that. First of all, Dave, where do you have Mark Andrews? Funny you bring it up because as I prep for this show today, I started doing research on Mark Andrews, and there's no question that he's a very good fantasy tight end. But I found myself compelled to lean toward TJ Hawkinson in PPR

because I think Hawkinson will have just a better chance to rack up targets and catches compared to Andrews. I think Andrews will be consistent over where he's been over the past couple of years. Maybe Pat will talk me out of that. But today I made the change. I put TJ Hawkinson at number four. I put Andrews at number five. So he is my number five tight end in PPR. I will still keep Andrews ahead of Hawkinson in half and non PPR. Okay. And Pat, you have Hawkinson, but you also have Pitts ahead of him, right? I do. I think the Julio Jones trade kind of cleared the runway for us to see the potential upside with Pitts this year. You know, and I'm excited about Pitts. I understand a little bit of trepidation about having a rookie tight end in the top five. It's normally a position where it takes guys a year or two

to get their sea legs, so to speak. And there's just so much potential with Pitts. I mean, he's got a longer reach than Calvin Jotz and a bigger catch radius. You know, the range of outcomes with him includes some of these high output wide receivers and clearing Julio Jones out of that pass catching tree for the Falcons really, I think, opens up the possibility that we could get 100 or so targets from Pitts in year one. And based on everything we saw of him at Florida, this guy could be pretty special. A chance that he winds up in the Evan Ingram category

his first couple of years and sort of is an underachieving athletic tight ends. But yeah, the high end of the range of outcomes is pretty attractive. Yeah, Evan Ingram, his rookie season was 2017, and he had 64 catches, 722 yards, and six touchdowns, and that was a top-five finish as a rookie. But we want more than 722, and that was in 15 games.

We want a better season than that from Pitts. So how do you square this incredible talent, great opportunity with the, what you talked about, the sea legs thing of this, it just doesn't happen for rookie tight ends. I mean, like I said, that was a top five finish, but it really wasn't a great season for Evan Ingram. Just, it's not that hard sometimes to be tight end five, you know, how can Kyle Pitts overcome that history of tight ends really needing a year before they take off? Yeah, that's a good question. And I mean, I guess the way I square it, Adam, is that I'm really not drafting Pitts that often in the best balls I've been doing so far. He kind of falls outside of my

buy zone. I've noticed that people are pretty anxious to get him. I've seen him go as early as the fourth round in a 12-man best ball, which seems a little bit rich to me. If we do get the top end of his range, we might be able to justify that at some point and say, hey, we basically got Travis Kelsey at a discount. But for him to reach that kind of ceiling in year one would be pretty extraordinary, given the history of rookies at the position. Okay, I do want to focus a little bit more on Mark Andrews. So give me the case.

How do you feel about him? I mean, I guess having him at six, it's not like you don't like him. But we're going to see him go forth as tight end four in a lot of drafts, maybe tight end five, depending on how people feel about uh kyle pitts maybe tight in six but um you know give me your give me your thoughts on mark andrews and why you're a little lower on him than others yeah i mean i do think it's a pretty i guess i would put him on a tier with hawkinson and pitts um just kind of at the bottom of the tier one One of the reasons I'm maybe a little further down or just slide him to the back of that tier is that up here in Big Ten

country, I am kind of a Rashad Bateman fan. I think that was a really significant addition to that offense. And Tylan Wallace is kind of a sneaky, good rookie receiver prospect too. Last year was just really Marquise Brown is the only credible wide receiver weapon they had. And, uh, you know, I still think there is a possibility that Andrews leads that team in targets, but I think that possibility is shrunk a little bit with the addition of Bateman. All right, and Dave, give me your quick thoughts on, again, why, sum it up in 30 seconds, why Hawkinson moved ahead of Andrews in full PPR today, and why still not Pitts?

I'll give you a minute now. I'll give you a minute now. So now it's Hawkinson, Andrews, Pitts in PPR? Yeah, that's how I've got it right now. And the reason why I'll put Pitts last is just because I don't want to race to draft somebody that might not hit the upside. Pat mentioned it. He's going in the fourth round and best ball. It's, I know that there's going to be somebody in every draft that goes after him and they just got to have Kyle pits and they get too excited about it. And I think they just take them too soon. But if it's round, I like them and I want to be with that guy to a degree. I just won't be that guy where my hair is on fire over and I'm just going to like make a crazy reach for him. I like him in round six. I look at him as a wide receiver playing tight end and we're just lucky enough to use them as a tight end. And I'm, I'm happy to have him, uh, as, as a guy that

could qualify for 800 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie. That would blow away what Evan Ingram did. I think Mark Andrews is safe. We've seen now for the past couple of seasons, he's had about 23% of the target share in Baltimore. He's averaged right around six targets per game, gets a lot of good work in the red zone. Hawkinson, to me, we saw him make a jump from his first year to his second year where his targets per game were up by like one and a half. His catch rate went up by over 10%.

I think he takes another jump. I think the potential is there for him to take another jump. I think it helps that Jared Goff is the quarterback. Goff played timid. I don't think he's going to look downfield. Hawkinson has a chance to be the number one target in the Detroit offense. It's an offense that's going to be playing from behind a lot. It is also a horrible schedule. It's tough. But I think that

Hawkinson will just have more opportunities. I think he's got the ceiling to have 125, 135 targets by the time this season's done and over with. And for a tight end to get that, you've got a chance to finish as a top three guy. And I don't think Andrews quite has that ceiling. And I think it think Andrews quite has that ceiling. And I think it's reasonable to believe that Hawkinson can get close to that type of target share. He had over 100 targets last year. I'm going to come back to the Hawkinson-Andrews debate.

Let me promote something real quick here. If you hadn't heard yet, we are giving away spots to this year's Scott Fishbowl League. All you have to do is subscribe to our YouTube channel, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday, and comment your Twitter handle on any of our videos this week. Remember to enter.

All you have to do is subscribe to Fantasy Football Today on YouTube. Again, that's at youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. You can probably remember that. Comment your Twitter handle on any of this week's videos. Good luck, and we are going to announce the winners next week. That's a way to get into the Scott Fish Bowl. I'm also going to announce that we are going to talk pizza a little bit later as these two dudes, Chicago guys,

already were talking about their favorite Chicago-style pizza. It's really just an insult as a New Yorker over here to even think about Chicago-style pizza, but fine. I'll play along. I'll talk about their big casseroles that they call pizzas, and we can have that discussion a little bit later. All right, so I promised the people on Twitter I was going to make the case

for Travis Kelsey third overall in full PPR. And like four people responded, so I owe it to them to make this case. I have a lot of reasons why I think it's justifiable to take Travis Kelsey third overall in full PPR. He had, if he does what he did last year, I think he should be the third overall pick in PPR leagues. He was a top four wide receiver last year.

And if you just look at, and that was in 15 games, by the way, if you just look at 300 fantasy points, he has scored 2018, like 297 fantasy points in PPR. This is on fftoday.com and last year it was like 315. If you just look at 300 fantasy points, how many wide receivers have scored 300 or more fantasy points in the last five seasons? Three, two, seven, one, and three. So you're talking about top five guy, maybe top three, maybe top four, if he can get to 300 fantasy points.

How many running backs have done that in the last five seasons? PPR, 300 fantasy points. Three, three, five, five, three. So again, Travis Kelsey, two of the last three years, has basically been a 300 fantasy point guy. He came just short in 2018. 2019 wasn't a great year.

It wasn't a great year for Mahomes. Mahomes got hurt. Tyreek Hill got hurt. The offense wasn't as good. But if you think that they are more like the 2018 and 2020 versions, then Travis Kelsey is probably a 300 fantasy point guy, if not more, in PPR. So if he gets that, I think he's worth the number three pick.

Now let's say he doesn't get that. Here's the other reason, I think he's worth the number three pick. Now let's say he doesn't get that. Here's the other reason why I think he's worth the number one pick in PPR. He's the number one tight end five years in a row. There are so many busts at running back McCaffrey Barkley last year, right? I mean, Dalvin cook has never played more than 14 games and he left a lot of games with injuries last year. I'd take cook over him,

but, um, my really Saquon Barkley, is he safe? Okay? I'm going to take Saquon Barkley over Kelsey. My point is he is as close to bus proof as you can get in fantasy football. And you can still, I mean, look, you can still take kind of a zero RB approach or you can still get a really good running back or two with your second and third round picks. I think it actually makes sense because he's safe and because he's outstanding. And the 2019 season might be weighing it down

because if he does what he did in 2019, then he's a horrible pick at third overall. But I think he's more like 2018 and 2020. And I think it's justifiable to take him there. Pat, am I crazy? I would say you are not crazy, Adam with the ambiguity of the what to do at number three after the top two this year in in one qb leagues it's kind of an interesting dilemma and i think kelsey is a viable option there the reason maybe not to do it is that maybe we don't see him

have the huge positional advantage, give his fantasy managers the huge positional advantage he has in the past because, you know, Kittle played eight games last year. There was no Kyle Pitts who could potentially throw his hat into the ring as one of these elite tight ends. You know, there might be a little more, there might be a step up from Hawkinson or Dallas God goddard we might see these guys sort of close the gap between kelsey and the field and uh i guess the other thing to support what you're saying adam is that we have said in the last couple of years hey maybe tight end is deep this year it hasn't't been. Right. Never.

Yep. I remember, I think I was listening to the 2019 tight end preview and we were like, this is the year of the tight end. And I feel like we say that a lot. It's never the year of the tight end. Dave, what do you think? Did we say that it was the year of the tight end or that tight end was

deep and that you could wait a little bit to get to pick up the position? Because those are two different things. One person on the show said, kind of jokingly, this is the year of the tight end. No, I think each of the last two years we've said tight end is deep and you can wait. We probably say that every year, but it's never really true. Dave? It's a little treacherous this year. Third overall then. Come on. Okay, listen.

Third overall. Here's what you're giving up by taking travis kelsey number three overall you're you're missing the chance to take a running back that's got a a decent shot at 2 000 total yards and probably more of a realistic shot at 1500 total yards and double digit touchdowns a lot of the running backs are going to catch passes that are in this range too you know who i'm talking about yeah but they're not going to catch as many as him no but they're still they can make up for that with total yardage and because travis kelsey's not going to have boo when it comes to

rushing and there's also the chance that he could end up with eight or nine touchdowns and the running backs that are going in this range could get well into 12 or 13 it's all the hope that you can get a running back that can get you 1500 total yards 50 total catches 12 total touchdowns and we can talk about position scarcity definitely exists a tight end it exists at running back too so that's what you're missing you're also probably forfeiting the chance to get a tight end that's close to kelsey in round two and we've seen it in a lot of the mocks that we've done already this offseason that late round two is the perfect range to go after a Darren Waller or a George Kittle. Are they close to Kelsey, though?

They are not. No, obviously not, because Kelsey has been the number one tight end in PPR five straight years, as you astutely pointed out. However, you can get close to that. You can get the guy who was number two at tight end, the guy who was number three in points per game at tight end last year at that spot around later and still get one of those running backs. So if you're worried about position scarcity, guess what? You can solve that problem in round two.

And if you're worried about, I'll just find a running back in round two. Well, the guys that are going to go in late round two, they definitely have the potential. We're talking about guys like Najee and Antonio Gibson. They've got potential to get you 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns. Can't take that away. 50 catches too? Yeah. But I don't know if they've got the same type of upside that Kamara has, Saquon Barkley has. Who are some other guys? Derek Henry doesn't have a chance of getting 50 catches, but definitely getting 2,000 total yards. We saw that from him last year. You're right, but isn't Kelsey safer

than Kamara? Is he safer than Kamara? I suppose he's safer than everybody. He can even make the case, hey, he's safer than Christian McCaffrey because he's proven to be durable and he's proven to be effective. Alright, well, look, I made my case. I didn't do it. I was a half PPR lead.

Here's the thing. If you truly feel that way, that you want to take Kelsey at three, do everything in your power to trade back to six. And you can still get Kelsey there, because I don't think anybody's taking Kelsey three, four, five. Okay, a lot more tight end questions. So let's get into the rankings here, and let's just give our top three, because it might not. I know who the three will be, but I don't know what the order will be so pat kick it off give me your top three tight ends for 2021 uh

travis kelsey george kittle and darren waller and dave uh i've got waller ahead of kittle all right so pat yeah adp has waller ahead of kittle dave has waller ahead of Kittle. You are on a little bit of an island today. So make the case, Kittle over Waller. Yeah, I've been tempted to move Waller ahead, but when I dug into it a little bit, I kind of decided to dig my heels in a little bit and keep Kittle at number two. I think the perception, I guess maybe three reasons why people like Waller a little more than Kittle. One, the biggest one probably that no one is excited about drafting any Raider wide receiver. Ruggs, John Brown, Brian Edwards. There's some decent, I guess they've sort of got a volume of like wide receiver four and wide receiver five types. But no one's excited about these guys. And people are very excited about Brandon Aouk and Debo Samuel. I think maybe people also worry that it's going to be this transitional year at quarterback

for the 49ers. And maybe that scares them a little bit that Trey Lance is going to be sort of an unknown as a rookie um and maybe it scares them that Kittle has missed 10 games over the last two years but uh as far as the receiver thing I mean we've seen two really good years out of Darren Waller and three really good years out of George Kittle and I believe Waller has averaged 8.2 targets a game over those two years and Kittle has averaged 8.1. With the Debo Samuel and Brandon Ayuk thing, they played four games together last year, albeit a small sample size. Kittle actually averaged 10 targets a game over those four games. And even if you take out a 15-target game he had in there, it still basically tracks with his three-year average at a little over eight targets a game.

And he's averaged a full yard per target more than Waller over his last three seasons versus those two really good seasons for Waller. It is 10 yards per target for Kittle over that span, 8 good seasons for Waller. It is 10 yards per target for Kittle over that span, 8.9 for Waller. And that's pretty significant, I think. I just don't see Kittle being target deprived as good as he is. And we saw kind of a real gadgety usage for Debo Samuel last year, just 2.2 yards for an average depth of target. So he's not, Kittle really isn't going to be competing with Debo for those downfield high value targets with Ayuk maybe, but, you know, I just don't see the target competition at wide receiver as any reason to be lower on Kittle. And, you know, he's just

so extraordinary after the catch that I find it hard to drop him to number three. And look, I don't blame you or anybody that feels that way. And to take Kittle, who before last year, before he got hurt, there was no question he was the number two tight end in fantasy. And man, I was nervous about Waller. And this was a year after, you know, we found him in the scrap heap toward the end of drafts. But I think last year he kind of proved that he's just absolutely the alpha in that passing game in Las Vegas, 9.1 targets per game. That's awesome.

I think he can match that again this year. I think it's just, it's evident that he's the number one guy in this offense. He's going to get targets in short area, deeper, red zone, every way that you want it. That's the way you'll get it. And Waller will be the one who can be just a little bit more reliable in terms of targets.

And it is an unknown factor for me when it comes to the 49ers offense. If Trey Lance, if Garoppolo is the quarterback, it's a much harder sell. But eventually it's going to be Trey Lance. Oh, see, I don't agree. Oh, you think it's going to be better with Lance than it will be for Garoppolo? Wait, maybe I do agree. I think Kittle will be better with Garoppolo than Lance.

I agree. Okay, I'm sorry. I think it's a harder sell for me to put Kittle behind Waller if Garoppolo is the quarterback. Like if Trey Lance decides you know what I'm gonna sit out this year right and it's gonna we know for sure it's Jimmy Garoppolo for the six games that he's healthy for then yeah then in those six games I think Kittle will be great I would I would be inclined to at least reconsider Kittle over Waller Lance is a

rusher Lance likes to throw downfield Lance is definitely inexperienced when it comes to playing at the NFL level. Lance is going to make some mistakes with the football. Lance will also handle some, he'll call his own number when they're inside the 10. And that'll hurt Kittle, who already doesn't get a ton of scoring opportunities as it is. And Waller does. So I'm okay. I'm okay going with Waller in PPR for sure as the better bet in fantasy. So if I'm picking between those two in late round two

or if I'm blessed enough early round three, I'm taking the Raider over the Niner. Okay. Yeah, and I think I was just thrown off because you said you were so close to saying any way you want it, that's the way you need it. But you said something like any way you want it, that's the way you get it. Yeah, I said something different because I did. I wish I had a better reason for why.

We could have caddyshacked right there, but we missed that opportunity. All right, so it's Kelsey, Kittle, Waller for Pat. It's Kelsey, Waller, and Kittle for Dave. And I'll get you to run off the rest of your top five. Why don't we do that? Why don't we do our top seven? Can we do that?

Top seven? Changing the whole format right here mid-show. Yeah, because I want to see if Goddard's the top seven guy for Pat. I know Pat's top six. I don't know his top seven. So, Dave, why don't you go first? Rank your top seven tight ends. Kelsey, Waller, Kittle, Hawkinson in PPR, Andrews in half and non-PPR. Flip them for the respective formats. Pitts is my sixth. And that's where that second tier ends.

Goddard is the next best available tight end as of now for me but i am very open to changing it at seven okay pat you're up top seven uh kelsey kittle waller hawkinson pitts andrews goddard's okay so it's the same seven who's your eight pat fans i might be heading in that direction because i don't know how much longer i can love irv smith who's currently my eight but i don't love noah fant either like i love the the athleticism but i don't know if i love a lot of other things that have happened to him over the last two years or what i would expect this year but we're sticking with top seven adam i'm sorry i don't mean to derail yeah no that's okay i mean it's already a little derailed in that regard.

Let's do a Hawkinson versus Andrews debate. Actually, let's come back to that. Let me ask you this. Which tight end outside of the top three has the most upside? Dave? It's either Hawkinson or Pitts. I'll take the third-year tight end, Hawkinson. Okay. Most

upside outside the top three, Pat? Yeah, I'll say Pitts, just in case he turns out to be... We get a little taste of that Calvin Johnson top end of his range. It's funny you bring up Calvin because...

This is, again, something that I researched today. He's within an inch of Calvin Johnson. He's within an inch of Calvin Johnson. He's within six pounds of Calvin Johnson. He's eight hundredths of a second slower than Calvin Johnson in the 40. His hands are one and three eighths inches larger than Calvin Johnson's hands. And that's one thing that I've always loved is big hands. You got big hands, you know, you can, you can be on my fantasy team. And I wonder if that's kind of who I see as like a slower version of Calvin Johnson. And I can start that at tight end. That's kind of hot. I want to ask, okay, now with the Hawkinson-Andrews debate, really,

because Pat, when you were talking about Kittle versus Waller, one of the things you cited was yards per target. And I think, yeah, you look at the stats and Kittle, I think he's the best tight end in football all around. I think he's second best receiver behind Kelsey. Yeah, he's probably better than Waller. You know, yards per target would certainly indicate that. We have to say at this point, Mark Andrews is a better player than Hawkinson, right?

Just, we were just ranking tight ends we want on our team. Wouldn't we have to give Andrews the edge there? I think so, based on what he's already done in the NFL. We do have to give him that. Yeah, because Hawkinson's yards per target, I mean, is really 6.2 as a rookie. Okay, whatever, 7.2 last year. Andrews has been 11, 8.77 and 8 in three seasons so you know

where i'm going with this it's like you have to really feel like the role is so different between the two of them i think to put uh to put hawkinson ahead of andrews especially when i could see golf is going to throw for more yards than jackson But is he going to throw for more touchdowns? Probably not. So, yeah, that's the issue. That's the trouble I have with this particular debate. It feels like Mark Andrews is a lot better than Hawkinson, or at least has been throughout their careers so far.

So that's where I'm at. Pat, you want to comment on that? Yeah, that's a fair thought. And maybe we're overestimating the gap between the Ravens receivers and the Lions receivers. I know it's generally believed that the Lions have one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the NFL. But even with the addition of Rashad Bateman, it's not like the Ravens are doing great at that position. So both of those guys do have a chance to finish as the top target guys on their team. I may be like Hawkinson's chances a little bit better, but, um, you make a very fair point on that, Adam. And I guess that's why I kind of have those two guys on the same tier, really.

Okay. No doubt they're close. Right. They both had 6.3 targets per game last year. And Hawkinson is the one that made the big jump. He only had 4.9 targets as a rookie. Andrews, it's been 6.3 to 6.5 each from 2020 to 2019, basically. So kind of has been a steady target guy. Yeah, but that's not fair.

You have to look at his target because he also made the jump as a rookie, right? He went from 50 targets to 98. Sure, and you started to see that. He was Mark Andrews. He is Mark Andrews. He was Lamar Jackson's most reliable target when Jackson started playing as a rookie.

So it only made sense that he would make that jump himself, but the targets didn't really go up with it. And now they're adding not just Rashad Bateman, but Sammy Watkins, and they unlocked Marquise Brown last year toward the end of last year, and I think Brown's going to have a pretty similar role to what he had in those last six overall. And there's talk about how the running game is going to get involved in the passing game or how the running backs are going to get involved in the passing game. Whereas Hawkinson, as Pat pointed out, is surrounded by a lot of mediocrity at wide receiver.

No offense to a Munra St. Brown and Tyrell Williams and Kintez Cephas and everybody else in Detroit. Listen, and you never know who else they might add, but I think it is clear that Hawkinson has a chance to be the number one target getter in that offense. And as I said earlier, it could go north of 120 targets, which is pretty dang good for a tight end. Whereas Andrews, who's been close to 100 targets, but hasn't quite gotten there yet in a season,

he obviously paced for it. Yeah, he paced for it. That's the thing. Yeah, he paced for it. Two years in a row. I don't know if he gets, I don't know if he matches 6.3 with the additions that the Ravens made.

How many more targets per game do you need from Hawkinson? Or how many more targets for a full season do you need from Hawkinson to put him ahead of targets for a full season do you need from Hawkinson to put him ahead of Andrews? Because if you're talking 10 or 15 targets, I don't know. Is that enough? I think it's got to be in the neighborhood of 25 plus targets,

which I think is doable. And I think he could end up even blowing him out of the water. If Andrews' target volume goes down a little bit, say he only ends up with 85 targets, which isn't that unreasonable considering where he's been the past couple of seasons. And then Hawkinson ends up at 120. I keep going to that number.

Yeah, of course. That's definitely a plus in Hawkinson's favor. That's it for me. That's a good point. So here's the rule. Here's the rule. If you're like me and you think that there is this opportunity for TJ

Hawkinson to pick up more volume in this ugly Lions offense, then you have to take them ahead of Andrews and PPR. And if you don't think so, then Andrews is your man. And they're going basically back to back looking at NFC drafts. There's ADP right now. NFC drafts. It's round six six i believe it's

beginning of round six yeah uh from june 1st to june 23rd kelsey's 9th waller's 24th kittles 32nd overall pitts 53rd overall so that's round five there's that reach hawkinson 63rd and andrews 65th you know like when we were doing these drafts with Heath, he would always take Andrews in the fourth round, basically. But that's not where Andrews goes. He and Hawkinson are back-to-back. Goddard, by the way, is almost 30 picks later.

Is 83rd. Sorry, almost 20 picks later. All right. So before we take a break, which tight end outside the top three has the most downside? Pat, what would you say? Tight end outside the top three has the most downside? Pat, what would you say? Tight end outside the top three has the most downside. Can I say Fantz at number eight? He has such a wide range of outcomes. I think just a phenomenal athlete. And there are times when he just looks

amazing and you think that he's got top five potential. And there are other times where, you know, my colleague at Football Guys, Matt Waldman, says that he sometimes struggles to do things, combinations of things like catch the ball and turn up field. He kind of needs work on technique. And there's also a pretty good tight end behind him, another really good athlete in Albert Okuwe Bunum. So the return of Cortland Sutton, an anticipated jump forward for Jerry Judy, and barring a trade for Aaron Rodgers, another season of below average quarterbacking. So there are definitely pathways for Fant to be a pretty serious disappointment this year.

And kudos to you for even trying to pronounce Albert O's last name. That was courageous. I have a friend who, a big Missouri fan, if I didn't give it a shot, he would have been disappointed. I think it's Okwu-Ebunam or Okwunebunam. I thought it was Okwebunam. I thought it was Okwebunam. I think it's Okwebunam. Okay, well, Albert O. works for me, guys.

We can sign off on that. Dave, which tight end outside the top three has the most downside? I mean, honestly, you can make the case for any of them. You can make the case for Goddard, who didn't even average six targets per game with Jalen Hurts and had a terrible target share from Hurts last year. I'll try and talk it out with Irv Smith because I got to figure out really just where I come out on him. I've got less than a month to do it, so I better get started. But minimal targets, like right around five per game

in those four games without Kyle Rudolph last year. Tyler Conklin does figure to see an increased role. He's the one that'll play more. Irv was already playing a lot to begin with. It's an offense that's got a lot of great receivers and a great running back, and everybody knows that. The defense is going to be better, so they might not be playing from behind or in high-scoring competitive games quite as much as last year. And Kirk Cousins has been pretty steady at being right around 90 to a hundred targets per year to his tight ends. And when Rudolph was out last year, Cochran actually had one more target than Irv Smith. They could be closer to equal than any of us would care to admit.

I love the talent for Irv Smith. I'm worried that we'd be overdrafting them if it's before around 10. I'll help you out. If you want downside. The best season for a number three receiver at any position with Kirk Cousins in Minnesota was 634 yards. That was Kyle Rudolph in 2018.

I mean, that is one thing I consider here with Fant, with Smith, and even now with Goddard, because I think Rager is no. But you want somebody... But you're a fan of Devontae Smith. Well, no, not with Goddard, because I think Rager is... No. But can they... You know, you want somebody... But you're a fan of Devontae Smith.

Of Devontae Smith, yeah. Right, and I think he's going to hurt Goddard as well. He is, but I think Goddard's the number two. I don't want the number three option. I want the number one or two, right? Kelsey's one. Waller's one. Kittle was one last year,

as Pat pointed out, when everybody was healthy. Pitts is two, we figure. Hawkinson is number one on his team. Andrews, probably number one. Fant, no. Fant could be a number three. Right. Fant three, Herb Smith probably three. Right?

Is it that simple? Am I simplifying tight end a little bit too much? Well, look, I mean, think about what makes a tight end great in fantasy. And it's typically playing as the number one or number two receiver for that offense.

I have a stat here. Hold on. Let me find it. Or just scoring a buttload of touchdowns. That, that tends to help too. Most, most top five tight ends have a hundred targets.

That's the stat. Most. I don't remember what it is, but like over the last several years, probably five years, almost all of them have had a hundred targets. It's, it's a good number to shoot for.

And you might want to boost it up a little bit more, um, this year with the 17 games, Pat, did I say anything that sounded, say anything that needed to be corrected? No, I don't think so. And it's interesting that I kind of feel the same way Dave does on Irv Smith. I'm just really conflicted there. You know, a good pass-catching tight end prospect with draft pedigree

and goes to an offense with a skinny passing tree now that Kyle Rudolph is gone. But did it really matter? Does Tyler Conklin just replace Rudolph one for one? Is it just a place where the tight end is destined to not be a major factor? Yeah, I'm kind of torn on Irv myself. You want to root for him because you know that the potential is there, the talent is there. But it's opportunity, not talent, that tends to get the job done in fantasy.

Yes. The last seven seasons, the only tight end that finished in the top five in PPR with fewer than 95 targets was? Was it Andrews? It was Robert Tunyon. He had 59 targets and 11 touchdowns. Ridiculous season. So last seven years, he's the only one who finished in the top five in PPR with fewer than 95 targets. And most, only four, I think, had fewer than 100 targets. So there's your stat. Hope that's helpful for you. We'll take a quick break here.

When we come back, we'll talk about pizza. And we have to talk about some other guys who might sneak into the top five, maybe looking at the Rams, maybe looking at Seattle. This is Pete Carroll talking to Gerald Everett. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians

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It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report.ca It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. And we're back again joined by Pat Fitzmaurice and again follow him at Fitz underscore FF. That's F-I-T-Z underscore F-F.

So, yeah. You guys had a little Chicago pizza discussion. Lou Malnati's versus Giordano's. Break it down, Pat. Yeah, my wife sides with Dave on this one. She's a Giordano's girl. To me, there's a little bit too much cheese on the Giordano's,

and I like the crust a little bit. They really do butter up that crust at Lou Malnati's, and if you're going to dump a lot of butter into the crust at Lou Malnati's. And I, you know, if you're going to dump a lot of butter into the crust, I can't argue with that really. But I'll be honest with you though, Adam. I mean, I've got family in New York. My dad's half of the family is from there. And I, you know, I'm from Milwaukee originally. There's some great tavern style, thin crust pizza in Chicago. And I feel like that's the kind of pizza that should be held up as the avatar of Chicago pizza and not the casserole like as you described the deep dish. So yeah, on a whole, I'm not really that big a deep dish guy. And, you know, I do agree that

New York is the pizza capital of the world. Hey,. Sorry, Dave. I feel like I stabbed you in the back. No problem. We all know you're from Milwaukee, not Chicago, so I'm not sure if it's really a stab in the back against all that is holy in Chicagoland. Ah, no. Look, I qualify them as different types of pizza. New York-style pizza is different than Chicago-style pizza

is different from Detroit-style and all the way to Arkansas style. Like it's all very different. But I, I've always loved Giordano's. I grew up on it. Love that it's, it's a little sloppy, right? When you cut it open, cheese does ooze everywhere. And there's a ton of this really hearty marinara sauce on top. The crust is great. The sausage. Sausage has always been consistently great from Giordano's. And Lou's is just like a cleaner, more representative of a deep dish versus Giordano's, which is stuffed because they put so much cheese

and toppings inside of the pizza. But, yeah, if you're looking for something a little bit neater and certainly a little bit lighter on the calories, I mean, you're going to go to calorie hell either way. Lou Malnati's is good. And Lou Malnati's does have a very good tomato-y sauce that they put on the top of the pizza, and their crust is pretty good as well.

So I would say that Lou Malnati's might be maybe my second or third favorite Chicago-style pizza, probably three. But Giordano's is at the top. And I'm saying that while wearing a shirt of a different pizza place in Chicagoland right now. Because this is an Aurelio shirt. Aurelio's is a better tavern-style pizza. Oh, you're thinking of Elio's, the frozen pizza.

No. Elio's is never going to make my top five of anything. So, Pat, what are your New York pizza spots? Oh, man. top five of anything. So Pat, what are your New York pizza spots? Oh man, I've, I've not been there for a slice in a long time, Adam. And, uh, I can't even recall, but I just remember that there was so many, there were so many good neighborhood places. Like it seemed like on every corner, there was a place where you could go in and get an amazing slice. So, you know, unfortunately, I can't run off a list of favorites, but, man, it's hard to go wrong there. Yeah, it's all good unless you go to the touristy spots.

And I make fun of Heath because Heath went to New York once, had pizza. It wasn't very good, but he went to some touristy spot near Times Square. And I make fun of Heath like Michael Scott standing in front of Sparrow's being like, this classic New York pizza. It's so good. That's my fault. That wasn't Heath's fault. I still make fun of Heath for it. Thank you, Dave. That was the experience that Heath had.

It was pouring rain. We're looking for a pizza place. We duck into just a random one in Times Square and it's just the worst representation of pizza, New York style or anywhere on the planet. Yeah, yeah. Times Square has horrible food. It's a cool place, but don't eat there.

I'm dying to get back to the city. I wanted to go last weekend for my birthday. I couldn't get to it. I'm dying to get back in there. Adam and August will go. You, me, Frank Stample, Chris Towers will meet up. I have to wait until August? Yep. You live there. You can gople, Chris Towers will meet up. I have to wait until August? Yep.

You live there. You can go anytime. You can go tonight if you wanted to. I could. I should go. I should go. Yeah. I want to see this.

You know, it's been a tough year. It was hit very hard. And I think it's back, you know. They say it's back. I want to see the energy. Great energy in New York City. Good. You're going this weekend.

Yeah, I'll try. I'm commanding you. All right. All right. I want to let going this weekend. Yeah, I'll try. I'm commanding you. Alright. I want to let you know about what's on CBS Sports HQ. Check it out. CBS Sports HQ. It's always on. And it's the network to start your sports day at 8 a.m. Eastern with

Morning Buzz. That's an hour of highlights, news, and all the days need to know. Come back or leave us on all day at 6 p.m. where we break down all the night's action and release dozens of picks from the best analysts and cappers in the sports world. How do you watch HQ? It is so easy. Go to your Roku, your Apple TV, your Fire TV, really most connected TVs, and look for that CBS Sports app. Fire it up. Check out HQ, the only 24-7 free sports streaming network. Pat, are you a Bucs fan? I am a Bucs fan. Very excited about tonight's game.

Yeah, man. What a game. Game 7 was. Amazing. Amazing. And I was so sure it was going to end in heartbreak. And I did think Durant had hit the three-pointer to stick the dagger in our heart. But yeah,

that we came back and won that and i'm saying we i i know i'm you know not the 13th man uh but yeah it does feel that way considering i've been cheering for the team since uh you know i was a kid i think one of the last game sevens in a playoff series we won i think was like beating the Sixers when I was in high school with like Dr. J. So, uh, wow. Jack, seven playoff history. Yeah. Jack Sigma, Sidney Moncrief, Terry Cummings, Paul Kowski.

Yes. Uh, well, Burkowski was a little later, Paul Mokesky. He was our Polish center of choice in that time. But yeah, it's been a pretty tough run as a Milwaukee Bucks fan over the years. So maybe there's light at the end of the tunnel this year. Just maybe.

And that would be really cool. I just can't even imagine if you were a diehard Bucks fan what that journey is like and then to see if they could win a championship. It would be probably pretty incredible. It would be pretty cool. Good luck, man. Good luck. It would be close to what it's like to be a New York Mets fan.

Which you know nothing about because you, like everybody else, rolls with the Yankees. They went to the World Series four or five years ago, though. They went to the World Series in 2000. Yeah, I guess that's fair. Maybe not the best comparison.

Look, the Mets are New York. I guess if you grow up in Milwaukee, you probably have a lot of sports teams you root for, but you do have a lot of other teams to root for. I don't know. Nobody pays attention to the Milwaukee Bucs. Good for them. Go Bucs. I'm all in.

I hate the Hawks too. All right. So anyway, especially after this year's playoffs, right? Who Trey young took the heart out of your chest. Ridiculous. Who can sneak into that top five?

Who's got some sleeper appeal, Pat? What do you think? Maybe Tyler Higbee. The conditions seem to be right. No more Gerald Everett. I don't know if we're going to get any positional competition with Johnny Muntz or Bryson Hopkins or Jacob Harris, an intriguing prospect, but probably a guy who's not ready to contribute as a rookie. And we saw at the end of 2019 with no Gerald Everett's, I think it was, what,

43 catches, 522 yards, two touchdowns, over a five-game run at the end of the season. And we were kind of expecting big things from Higby last year, and we basically got his five game numbers over a 16 game season so uh you know maybe we we see something you know we're not going to see that five game run prorated over 17 games this year but maybe we can see something a little closer to 700 or 800 yards now that he is going to be the guy at tight end. Yeah, I'm nervous about Tyler Higbee. And maybe part of it's just because I've got shell shock over having him ranked high last year.

I thought that the end of last season was an indicator to at least Sean McVay using him a little bit more. It happened in one of the early games when he had three touchdowns, and then after that he was an afterthought. And even though there's a pretty decent track record of Matthew Stafford leaning on his tight ends can't help but think that Sean McVay is looking further downfield and knowing that he can rely on Woods and Cup I think Cup rebounds this year I think Woods has his best year yet I think the deep ball receivers that they added could pitch in they'll probably help Stafford

more than they help fantasy teams outside of best ball but i'm nervous about higby being a good red zone a reliable consistent red zone weapon for the rams offense and achieving more than five targets per game i don't know if he can do that so i'm not quite on board the higby bandwagon well who would be your pick then who could sneak in i like johnny smith, and I like Adam Troutman. And Jonu ranked pretty highly last year in terms of red zone targets and red zone touchdowns inside the 10 targets, inside the 10 touchdowns, along with other top tight ends.

Patriots made it pretty clear that they really wanted to have him. They put their money where their mouth was. And I think that they want to get back to having somebody at tight end that can provide some real mismatch issues. And I know that if Cam Newton's a quarterback, it's probably still going to be a very run heavy offense, maybe a little less run heavy if it's Mac Jones. And so we'll see if Mac can get there, but I think that they will manufacture targets for Johnnie Smith so that he's at least not crappy somewhere between five and six targets per game. Hopefully he scores every three games. Maybe he's got a chance to get you 50 yards in a week, but the upside could be there, especially if Cam ends

up not being the starter where Johnnie sees a lot more than what I've laid out in terms of targets and yards and scores more frequently and just kind of becomes a breakout tight end with the Patriots is basically their de facto number one receiver Troutman will never be the number one receiver in New Orleans there's guy already there that's doing that named Michael Thomas but he could be the number two I don't know who else is there we've seen tight ends get an abundance of touchdowns the past two seasons in New Orleans 21 to the position in those last two years. We know that that offense does like to utilize a tight end in general. And Troutman is somebody that I know the coaching staff likes a lot.

I thought he moved really well when he was running his routes last year. And I think he's tough to take down because he's such a big dude. So that's somebody that I'm targeting toward the end, probably a little bit closer than round 12, probably like round nine, round 10. While a lot of people might reach for Kyle Pitts, I might find myself reaching for Troutman. And if I whiff on the top six tight ends in my fantasy drafts,

my de facto backup plan is to get Janu and Troutman, where the capital on draft day won't cost me that much. And I can hope that one, if not both of them can pay off. Okay. Can I ask if your Troutman interest is contingent upon Jameis Winston being named the starting quarterback? It would be better if it's Jameis at quarterback. And I think it's going to end up being Taysom Hill. Just the more that I think about it, the longer that he was there.

And I think he's going to play no matter what, even if Jameis is the starter. Yes, it would be better because we've seen Jameis lean on tight ends in the past. But I just think that they're going to run out of guys to throw to. Thomas is going to eventually, the defenses are going to try and take Thomas away. And they'll have some sort of a plan to limit Kamara. And so someone else is going to have to make plays in that offense, and I think Troutman is best suited for now to be that guy. Okay, so Dave likes Troutman.

And we're going to end the show on that note. Pat, thank you very much for coming on. Tell us all about, I already gave your Twitter handle and all that, but tell us about your podcast and where we can read your material. Yeah, Adam and Dave, thank you so much for having me on. Tell us all about, I already gave your Twitter handle and all that, but tell us about your podcast and where we can read your material. Yeah, Adam and Dave, thank you so much for having me on. It's been great to talk to you guys. People can find me at footballguys.com. My rankings are always up at thefootballgirl.com also. And I do have a weekly podcast, Fitz on Fantasy, that usually comes out Tuesday mornings. And it was a pleasure having you on. Great insight.

Go Bucs. Not so much Badgers, but go Bucs. We'll stick with that. Thank you for backing up New York pizza. Thanks for listening, everybody. We've got a mailbag coming out tomorrow. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. And your Apple Podcast questions.

Talk to you later.