Fantasy Football Today - Top 5 TEs! Who is #3? Where's the Upside? (06/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 30, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  We know Travis Kelce is TE1 and for most people Mark Andrews will be TE2, but what about after that? We start our discussion with a TE3 (1:50) debate and give you three different answers! And that will lead us into our preferred draft strategy with tight ends and a couple of quick news items (10:50) ... Revealing the consensus Top 5 TEs in PPR (13:15) which includes a lengthy T.J. Hockenson discussion. What was the most difficult decision to make when ranking the Top 5 (23:25)? Which Top 5 TE has the widest range of outcomes (27:30)? ... Does Kyle Pitts have more upside than Andrews (28:00)? Which Top 5 TE has the most downside (33:45)? We also make the case for many TEs to be #2 in the rankings (36:15) ... Your Apple Podcast questions and your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Top five week coming to a conclusion on this Friday morning. Welcome, everybody, to Fantasy Football Today. It is time to talk about the top five tight ends in the consensus rankings. Can you guess who tight end one is? I'm Adam Azer. I got Chris Towers and Dan Schneier joining me today. Yesterday, we recorded a Beyond the Box score episode.

You will hear that. You can watch it now on YouTube. YouTube.com slash FantasyFootballToday, or you can hear it on Saturday. It will drop on Saturday. Also, there will be a Tuesday, July 4th Dynasty episode, so get excited about that. Chris, early happy birthday to you

on July 4th. I hope you have a very big long weekend. The way our holiday works out is we have to work Monday, and then we're off Tuesday. It's not ideal. Not complaining. I love a day off.

Take Monday off. I work Sunday through Thursday, too, so I got to work two days and then get my day off. It's fine. It's fine. It's no big deal. When's your birthday, Chris? July 4th. Oh, my God. That's your birthday, Chris? I didn't even know.

July 4th. Oh, my God. That's your birthday? Wow. I was like 12. Big time birthday. I was like 12 before I realized that the fireworks were not for me. All right.

So we got to talk tight ends here. A couple of news items on offensive linemen. And I'm going to try to read your Apple podcast questions. I do appreciate all of the Apple podcast submissions. The problem is the podcast app is not really working very well, so I can't read them. So I'm trying to read them another way and I'm working on that, seeing hopefully I can make that happen before the end of the show.

We'll get into the consensus rankings in a little bit. Let me just ask you this, Chris, you can start. Who is tight end three for you? Unless there's any crazy shakeup with Kelsey and Andrews, I'm going to assume as one and two. Who's tight end three for you uh unless there's any crazy shake up with kelsey and andrews i'm gonna assume is one and two who's tight end three yeah i thought we were gonna start with the controversy at travis kelsey number one no uh number three is i i think a boring pig it's tj hawkinson for me and it's it's kind of he's the set it and forget it tight end and there's value in having a guy who is probably going to score like 12 points

most weeks even though i don't think there's a ton of upside there but i just the the gap between him and the other guys in terms of safety is is what gives him the edge there dan who's tight end three for you darren waller is my tight end three should i get into now are we going to dive into this in the show no go ahead this is the time well i mean I mean, I'll do the basis of the argument now and I'll get more into the details in a little bit later. But the basis of the argument for me with Darren Waller is out of all these tight ends that we're looking into, and if I'm going to invest in any of these top five tight ends, I want a difference maker on a weekly basis. I want someone who's going to give me a weekly edge. And I feel that outside of Kelsey and Andrews, even Andrews,

I'm a little more skeptical about, but there are some good things about, even though there's some target, a little bit more target competition there, there is a chance for a better pass rate there, I think, with Munkin. And I'll get into that why later, but with Waller, this is the best chance you're going to get outside of Kelsey of getting a top target getter on an offense at tight end. Darren Waller's already had two seasons of a thousand plus yards. The giants have never, no receiver on the giants roster has a thousand yards a season under his belt right now. Not one. And that includes Sterling Shepherd. He's been with the team for like six years, but it's never come close to a thousand yards. So I'm looking at a guy who

in two seasons before the last two injured seasons, which we know happened, had 90 plus receptions over 1100 yards in each season, 12 touchdowns combined in those two seasons. So I like his upside a lot more than TJ Hawkinson's and a lot more than Dallas Goddard, George Kittle, and all the guys behind him as well. And you didn't mention the guy that I would have as tight

in three. That's Kyle Pitts. Chris, I thought that's who you had. I thought that's who you had. I'm finally out on Pitt. I have Pitts at number four. And if you're going to make the case for Darren Waller, I feel like I'd, and this is kind of the opposite of what I usually do,

because I kind of usually go against the mystery box versus a boat. I usually just go with the boat. But in this case, we don't actually know what Darren Waller is at this point in his career. He's 31 years old. He's missed.

No math in my head is not really working right now. He's missed like 17 games over the past two seasons. 14, 14 games. 14 games with recurring hamstring issues. No one was a hamstring.

One was a knee. The one you need even better. Two different injuries. And he's going to be 31 in week two of this season. So high after week one. Ted Inns aged pretty well, though, in the NFL. Not to mention, I think there is something to be said

about somebody who didn't break onto the scene until later in his career. Obviously, those probably are well aware now of his issues off the field with drugs and rehab and things like that and he was the late breakout in the first place there's less tread on the tires there i'm not really worried at all about the age factor maybe reoccurring injuries maybe a little bit but they weren't the same injuries so i kind of feel like this narrative is a little bit overblown to me i think it's it's just kind of a lot of different issues right it's changing teams we don't know exactly how he's

going to be used. It's that's not a negative, right? I do think he'll be the number one option on the Giants, but it's an unknown. It's a relative unknown. Then you have the injury issues. Then you have the age question. And it's just and also just he wasn't as good last year. You know, we've seen a steady decline in his play 75 yards per game in 2021 or 2020 61 in 2021 43 last year it just it feels like where adam thielen was a couple of seasons ago i don't know about where like in 2020 adam thielen was still productive right 925 yards 14 touchdowns was still, I think, a high-end wide receiver two for fantasy. But there were signs, right? The per-game production

had slipped in consecutive years. He had missed a bunch of time. He was going into his age 31 season in 2021. And it was like, yeah, but he's still a solid wide receiver two, right? Still a great opportunity. And it's like, like yeah but once we see the signs of decline and once we see the the the injuries for a guy in his 30s it's just like it's not a guarantee that things are gonna go wrong but it's just it's a lot of red flags for me i've got darren waller as my tight end six and i i think the gap between three and seven is basically non-existent i think you can put them in any order and so it's mostly just upside versus downside risk versus reward and i i think i go hawkinson three pits four which is basically just safety versus upside i i like that argument because

it is true that as they got, you know, as your receivers or tight ends, whatever position you're going to go for is getting older. There's more of a chance of injury, especially with these reoccurring ones. I will say this as far as the yards per game goes and the dip in production, Devante Adams entered the picture last year. And similar to the dealing situation, Justin Jefferson under the picture, there is no Adams. There is no Jefferson on the giants outside of waller. This is by far and away their best target getter. And he's been so far in OTAs. I mean, that's nothing to brag about. It's early, but as that training camp buzz builds, he's been moved all over the formation, uses the one in the three by one sets in the backfield. Like they're getting

him the football early. Um, so we'll say, I mean, I definitely get the concern of the age. I think the target thing is a little bit more, I guess, different in the Giants situation now with Waller than it was for Thielen with Jefferson and, I guess, last year, Waller with Adams. Yeah. Yeah, and I think Pitts has just as good of a chance to have a huge target season.

I mean, he was on pace for 100 targets last year on an offense that barely threw the ball and threw it extremely poorly. And actually, you know, you haven't heard the episode yet, unless you watch it on YouTube, but Jacob Gibbs outlined it yesterday on Beyond the Box score, which we'll publish on Saturday. The situation really could not have been much worse for Kyle Pitts.

Marcus Mariota was the most inaccurate deep ball thrower in the NFL last year. Pitts had a very high ADOT. It was a terrible combination. But I think the thing that Chris said, I don't know if we all feel this way, but Chris, I feel exactly the same way. The gap between three and seven at the tight end position is very small. If anyone wants to argue for Waller, for Pitts, for Goddard, for Kittle, or for Hawkinson as tight end three, I'm not going to tell you you're wrong.

I think you should just wait and take close to the last one. I don't see any justification for Hawkinson having an ADP at 41 and Waller having an ADP at 77, Goddard at 71, Pitts at 70, you know, Kittle at 57. I just, the consensus of Hawkinson being tight end three, it doesn't really make sense to me. Like there should be more, there should be more debate and more division on that. And they should all be really grouped together. I think, I think Chris thinks Dan, you agree.

Completely agree. Well, we can get into a little bit later, but I have massive reservations about TJ Hawkinson this year. Yeah, me too. I mean, he's just,

I don't think he's 41 overall. I did not know that. I haven't been following the ADP as closely. There's not a chance in hell I would use the 41st pick on TJ Hawkins. But I'm not sure there's a chance in hell I'd use the 41st pick on any of those five tight ends. Yeah, no, I think the way you do it is you rank that tier, and if you want one of them, whichever one's left,

when you pick in the seventh round or sixth round, however you want to do that, I think is the way to go. whichever one's left when you pick in the seventh round or sixth round whatever like yes however what you want to do that i think is the way to go because i think you know in my projections i've got a tight end three is 208 points tight end seven is 198 they're separated by 10 points there's a big gap between kelsey and everyone else obviously it's like four points per game and then it's like two points per game between andrews and everyone else maybe obviously, it's like four points per game. And then it's like two points per game between Andrews and everyone else. Maybe Andrews is the one we need to spend a lot of time talking on. Is he worth the third round pick?

And we will get to that a little bit later. So I'll just tell you a little bit about what's coming up. So next week, you're going to have the Dynasty show on Tuesday. But beginning the week after that, we'll still have the Dynasty show, but you will have five episodes per week of just regular, uh, redraft content. We still will have the dynasty show. It's not going anywhere. It's just might maybe a different day or, you know, we have other plans, but, uh, that dynasty content will still exist, but we're going to keep ramping up our redraft coverage as well. Um, FFT and five is going strong hosted by Chris tower. So please

check that out. If you want a list of all of our podcasts, go to cbssports.com slash podcasts. A couple of news items here and not insignificant suspensions. Jacksonville left tackle Cam Robinson. He's suspended for four games for violating the PED policy. He's their starter. And Tennessee offensive tackle Nicholas Petit Frere is suspended six games for, what was that? Gambling.

Gambling, okay. Yeah, good. I didn't want to say something worse than that. For the gambling policy. So that's a Titans offensive lineman starter, an offensive tackle, and they already have offensive line issues. Should we change any rankings at all?

Chris Towers based on Cam Robinson for the Jaguars out four games, Nicholas Petit Frere out six games for Tennessee. I don't think so. You know, obviously the fact that it's the first four games of the season, and then you don't know what are the first six games of the season in Petit Frere's case, you don't know what shape they're going to come back in. It's not a guarantee that they'll, after missing that time, be themselves. I think it would be an overreaction

to move anyone down. It's only part of the season. I think it's okay. Good. I don't think we need to spend any more time on this, Dan. I'm good. Let's just do tight ends. Is that good? Let's get to the tight ends all right we're gonna take a quick break here the rest of the show will be tight ends hopefully some questions at the end we'll be right back

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The consensus top five is Kelsey Andrews-Hawkinson-Pitts-Goddard. I know that's top four is Chris's, Kelsey Andrews-Hawkinson-Pitts. Who's number five for you, Chris? Goddard. Who's number five for you, Chris? Goddard. He's number five. Goddard's one that, like, if he was the number two option in that offense, I think he'd be the clear number three tight end and maybe the number two.

He's been so efficient since getting a larger role in that offense. It seems like there are three times every game where he's just wide open with nobody within 15 yards of him. It's, it's amazing what they're able to do for him in, in terms of his role in the, in the screen game, his ability to get open downfield,

everything he does in that offense is just really, really valuable, but it's just kind of a math problem. Can you get him to 70 yards per game? I don't think so. I think it's really hard to get there with the, unless something happens, Devante Smith or,

or AJ Brown and they miss significant time, but we're not hoping for that. And so I, I just kind of think where he's at 60 yards per game, right around 950 to a thousand yards in, in a full season. That's probably what he is. And also, he's got some crazy low target number

in the red zone over the past two seasons. It's like six red zone targets over the past two seasons or something. I'll look that up and confirm, but I saw that the other day. And I think if you even took out the Gardner-Minshew games, it's probably even worse. But it's a weird, quirky, maybe not sustainable stat for Goddard should regress. Dan, what's your

top five? Because Chris and the consensus are Kelsey, Andrews, Hawkinson, Pitts, Goddard. Yeah, I have Kelsey, Andrews, Waller, then I have Hawkinson and then Goddard. I really, I'll make my case for why I'm really concerned with TJ Hawkinson this year. So TJ Hawkinson, he comes over from the trade from the Lions. And from that point until that point, we had pretty much discussed him as a bust, right? He was a top draft pick and top first round draft pick in the NFL. Never really did much after the catch. Never really showed us much as a talent. I remember the two seasons ago where me and Chris were way off on him. We said we couldn't understand his fifth round value and he had that bad year. And then

he breaks out with the Vikings, but look at this breakout with the Vikings. In two games last year against the same exact team, TJ Hawkinson had 58.8 PPR points. That was against the Giants. He had in week 16, 13 for 109 with two touchdowns. In the wildcard game, he had 10 for 129. 16 targets, 11 targets. Besides that, he averages 13 PPR points per game. Here's his stat lines with the Vikings, his breakout Vikings. Nine for taking out the Giants games.

Nine for 70, seven for 45, five for 34, five for 43 in a touchdown. The only touchdown he had outside of his two touchdown game against the giants, just three touchdowns in this span with the Vikings four for 33, six for 67, three for 33, seven for 59. And then you got the two giants games. I mean, to me, that is just not what I want to invest in, especially after you add Jordan Addison in the first round, who in opinion, is going to almost immediately earn better, more targets than TJ Atkinson. Within the progression of a read, you're looking for Jordan Addison who can get open immediately before you're looking for TJ Atkinson.

By default, they had to go to TJ Atkinson last year. Like Chris said, Adam Thielen on his last legs, not running the same good routes, playing hurt, wasn't getting open. Jordan Addison is going to get open. So now I'm even adding to the mix potential loss of these targets that weren't even really there outside of those two giants games where the giants play bracket coverage and like triple team, Justin Jefferson. It just seems to me like we're investing way too much in a guy who's not scoring a lot of touchdowns, maybe losing targets. Didn't even really get that many targets to begin with if you take out those two Giants games.

I don't know. I just look at that and I just am scared. When I saw the difference between the Giants games and the rest of his games with the Vikings, it was pretty scary for me. It is funny that we talk about the breakout for TJ Hawkinson and he averaged more yards per game when he was with the Lions than he was

with the Vikings. That's misleading. That's misleading. That's misleading because 179 of his yards. But this is TJ Hawkinson. This is who he's been basically since he stepped foot on the NFL. This is so indicative. Week three, 18 yards. Week four, 179 yards.

Week five, six. I think he might have left week five with an injury maybe if I'm remembering correctly. But either way, that's been him. Remember, I think his second game in the NFL as a rookie was a massive game or his first game, something like that. And then he immediately fell on his face. And he's just been super inconsistent throughout his career.

He has these stretches. I don't think TJ Hawkinson. I think he's just a guy probably. Yeah, that's kind of what it is. I mean, you look at him over statistically throughout his rookie year but just over the last season last three seasons is pretty consistent in terms of per catch per target yeah it's like a solid player but he doesn't do a lot after the catch he doesn't make plays downfield his explosive catch rate I mean you look at him compared

every tight end who has 50 or more catches, he's usually in the middle of the pack, 50 or more targets, excuse me, in the middle of the pack or toward the bottom and explosive catch rate. So that's the thing with Hawkinson. If the targets go down, he's definitely going to be a bust if you're taking him in the 40s because he

doesn't really... Can I ask you guys this question then? Can I ask you guys this question? because i feel like it's the same conversation we've had here and you you know a lot of fantasy football discusses over the past three years if that's the case adam and i think it is and and let's say jordan addison doesn't eat that much into his target chair but he eats a little bit into it like what is the value of drafting these tight ends in the 40s in the 40 to 60 range, if they're not giving you a weekly difference, like I feel like that's me to get pushed up year after year,

just because you need a tight end. You have to start one every year, but that only matters if they're giving you a weekly edge. And I know Travis Kelsey, I love drafting Jeff's cause guy believe in the weekly edge. But when we're talking about these guys like Hawkinson, like you said, Adam low and explosive rate,

maybe losing targets even. So is not really making that much of a weekly difference. about these guys like hawkinson like you said adam low explosive rate maybe losing targets even so is not really making that much of a weekly difference averaging 13 ppr points with those two big games against the giants like to me that's when you're starting to just see these guys have these crazy high adps because they play tight end and that's that's the thing that's what happens and and it's it's kind of true at every position, but maybe not wide receiver. But you see it at running back, too. We talk about the dead zone, and what happens is the high-end guys

are such difference makers that it tends to – there's like an anchor effect for everyone else where the high-end guys are so impactful that you want them, and they make such a difference, and they're worth a first-round pick in this case for Travis Kelsey. And then it kind it kind of like well I can't get Travis Kelsey but Mark Andrews is a difference maker he's not as much of a difference maker but I can talk and and so he gets pushed up because it's like well if I don't get Mark Andrews then it's TJ and then and then you have Mark Andrews gets pushed up a little bit and then the next group gets pushed

up a little bit because it's like well if I don't take TJ Hawkinson in the fourth round, you know, the rest of those guys might go off in rapid succession. And then I'm starting Dalton Schultz on the Texans. And I think that's what happens is the middle class at tight end consistently gets pushed up. You mentioned TJ Hawkinson a couple years ago when his ADP got really inflated

when people were projecting a breakout. That's kind of what happened where it's like, if it goes right, he could be a must-start tight end. And I think people, it's easy to talk yourself into it in a way that probably doesn you're trying to win fantasy football leagues right what you're giving up when you take these guys in rounds four to six you're giving up and you're not always going to get these guys right but you're giving up the opportunity to draft last year's amon raw saint brown two years ago's cooper cup we're going in that exact same round i hate this argument i hate it i think it's so those guys can win you fantasy yeah but you know what hockinson's not going to win but you know you don't even have to you don't even have to do you don't even have to go with the amon raw a St. Brown Cooper Cup. Right now, to draft T.J. Hawkinson in an NFC league, you're passing on Debo Samuel, guys in the same range.

Before you even do this. Debo Samuel, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper. Those guys are going to be bigger difference makers. Of course. Okay, so listen. I think we've established that we think TJ Hawkins' ADP is insane. And I think that any tight end, other than

Andrews and Kelsey, round four is not the right time to take tight end three. So what about round five? Maybe. What about round six? Round six, I'm definitely in the game. But my point is, you can make all these cases. Oh, you're passing up these guys.

Sure, but if you look at the guys who were drafted in round five last year, well, Damian Harris and Brandon Cooks and Clyde Edwards-Ziller and Alan Robinson and Michael Thomas were drafted in round five last year. So I don't want to just act like tight ends are the only positions that are, and that's what we do with the running back dead zone too.

Oh, why are you taking these guys? I'm going to give you the two or three examples of wide receivers who went off when they were drafted in round five. You know what? Every position has busts once you get past the first few rounds. I mean, that's just the nature of it. So I think we can identify clearly that round four for tight end three is a mistake. I personally do not want to take my tight end unless it's Kelsey or Andrews

until round six or later. So that would be my next question to you. Quickly, guys, when do you feel comfortable taking tight end three, whether it's Hawkinson for Chris or Waller for Dan? Yeah, it's end of round five, early round six. Yep, you nailed it. I'd prefer round six, but I could consider end of round five.

Okay. Questions then. What was the most difficult decision you had to make when ranking your top five? The order of three through seven. Just any... I think the gap between any of them is so narrow that it's really just personal preference

and how you want to build your team and those things. Maybe it's just how high should Travis Kelsey go? Maybe that's the toughest. That is tough for me. I keep moving him down. I started out with him one in January, and I know I'm not going lower than six i know he's in the top six but right now i think he's five or six i love the case for one i won't

do it either but i just love the idea of it adam i do because you're not allowed to take travis kelsey first overall right but meanwhile this guy is never missed a game except for covet in nine years so he's a supposed injury risk that's not actually an injury risk because he doesn't he doesn't block like really so he doesn't block, like, really. So he doesn't really take the physical beating that some of these guys take at tight end. I like the idea of Kelsey at one. I haven't done it yet, but I like it. Well, what do you think? I mean, tight end premium.

What's my hardest thing? Yeah, what was your hardest decision? The hardest for me was putting Waller all the way up at three for sure. But I looked at it just like Chris did at three through seven. I just can't find much of a difference between these guys and the rankings. And then I'm just looking for upside. I'd like to play fantasy to win first. I'm a big, if you're not first, you're last kind of guy in fantasy. I'm looking to win leagues. I just don't see much league winning appeal with any of these tight

ends outside of wall or three to seven, except for pits who I don't like the quarterback situation. I think Drake London takes away targets as well. And then Goddard who I would need an injury to AJ Brown or Devante Smith for that breakout to happen. I don't really see it possible with Hawkinson. And Kittle, to me, is just a very bad fantasy risk this year. To me, I don't like Kittle at all. The Kittle thing is funny because now it's, oh, he can score touchdowns.

Yes. When it was like he's incapable of scoring touchdowns for years and years and years and now he has this fluky touchdown stretch with brock purdy and we're like cool george kittle can score touchdowns again it's like i i think george kittle is still right there with travis kelsey in terms of the best tight ends in the nfl and in terms of what he does as a football player i I think he's one beat. But it's just the 49ers offense is a math problem that's hard to solve. And it's not just that they have a lot of mouths to feed.

They got a lot of guys who we haven't seen play together for more than two or three games at a time. It's such a weird thing about this offense for three years in a row now, where we just like, what does it look like when Debo, Ayuk, and Kittle are all healthy? Well, we've seen it like, what, nine games total? Now we have McCaffrey in there too.

But now we have McCaffrey, and now we have a new QB that I think they only played three games with, all of them healthy, plus Elijah Mitchell, if you want to get into the RB. Like, it's just, it's such a difficult thing to project. Yeah, have a lot to say about kiddo i will save it

though because my basic summary on kiddo is that george kiddo is unfairly compared to the george kiddo of you know his 1300 yard followed by like 1100 yard season whatever that was yeah whereas we don't really compare him to the other tight ends anymore. We just see so he's that he's not nearly as good as he used to be, but he's still like, you know, he had a pay. If you just look at his games with Garoppolo,

actually his games at Purdy, he was on pace for like 850 yards or something like that. I think there were two tight ends that had 850 yards last year. So I think we unfairly criticized Kittle. He's not what he used to be, but he still has not finished. I guess I'm saying everything I have to say about Kittle. Five straight seasons, he has been a top three tight end per game in PPR and top four per game in non-PPR.

So I know it's not as pretty and it's extremely inconsistent, extremely inconsistent, but he still puts up good numbers. He just, he's never going to be what he used to be. All right, we'll get into it a little bit later. My next question for you, which top five tight end has the widest range of outcomes? Kelsey's not going to, like, Kelsey's not really part of this discussion,

but which top five tight end has the widest range of outcomes? Pitts is the only answer, unless, like, Dan, you don't rank Pitts in the top five. Yeah has the widest range of outcomes? Pitts is the only answer. Unless like Dan, you don't rank pits in the top five. I don't rank. I would have obviously said pits if he was in my top five, but pits is just outside my top five. So for me,

it's Darren Waller who's made my top five for sure. I mean, you could see a situation where the giants continue to do what they did from the second half of the season, which is a pass first offense, or you could see them go back to the run game. And then Darren Waller's in an Atlanta Falcons-type situation where, yes, he's getting a lot of targets,

but the team's not really moving the ball through the air, so that's a problem. So I can see it going a lot of different directions there. Which top, I'll say top seven tight end, has the most upside other than Travis Kelsey? It's got to be Pitts, right? Does it? What about Andrews? Yeah,

that's, that's the tough thing because Andrews is the only one who's finished ahead of Travis Kelsey before. Um, so it's hard to argue that anyone has more upside than 107 catches, 1400 yards and nine touchdowns. The thing with Andrews that, that scares me though,

is this is really the most target competition he's had by a wide margin at any point in his career. That's really what gets me. And also, there's something Dave pointed out that I'm trying to find now that I thought was really interesting with Mark Andrews. So here he goes, including 2012, where obviously he dealt with some injuries and the Marble wasn't playing. 2012. He averaged 12.7. Or sorry, 2022. We didn't go back in time 10 years this time.

Not just yet. But he averaged 12.7, between 12.7 and 15.4 points per game. And then obviously he added 17.2 points per game in his breakout 2021. But he really only had that one breakout year. So I thought that was just interesting when we're thinking about taking this guy, you know, between 30 and 40 overall. Again, like, is there, if he's really only averaging 15 fantasy under 15 fantasy points per game is there value in that that's a lot of points by the way for a tight end i mean in ppr not for a tight end for sure of course for a tight not many tight ends

average 15 points per game you might get 23 but he's never done that outside of 2020 no no yeah but he has done that in spurts and then then Lamar Jackson gets hurt and stuff like that. Last year, I think if you look at what Mark Andrews did at the beginning of, before his injury. Yeah, that's the thing. He was absolutely worth a third round pick. You know, so. And then you have the question of the target competition. I am pretty unimpressed by the Ravens wide receivers.

I could see that going different ways. Maybe Zay Flowers has a great year. Maybe Beckham's worth the $15 million they paid him. I don't really think he has huge target competition. I mean, I do understand it's more than what he has had before. I agree with that. But I don't know. If he's as good as I think he is, he still leads that team in targets. I think the way to look at it is not necessarily that it's for sure harder target competition as much as it is an unknown again it's it's a new offensive coordinator it's more players around him i don't target competition is a tough thing because players earn targets right and like if you have

mark andrews open you're gonna throw it to it to him. That's kind of how the thing works. It's oversimplifying, but it's largely how it works. Target share tends to stay pretty steady across quarterbacks and team changes for high-end wide receivers, at least. So I'm not too worried about the target share. I did ding him a point or two in my projections, but he's still, I think, a clear second among tight ends in my projections for target share. The only thing I'll say in regards to Andrews on the target share front is I do feel like just from watching the Ravens tape over these last few years, in that offense with Greg Roman, there were a lot of first reads for Mark Andrews. It was obviously a more condensed offense.

It was heavier personnel packages. They didn't have a ton of speed on the field, and they weren't really going through like, of speed on the field and they weren't really going through like i don't want to say they weren't going through full progressions marquise brown they kind of went through a different kind of system there but a lot of it was funneled through mark andrews system schematically am i definitely getting that from todd munkin or am i getting more of an 11 personnel you know you might be odell becca might be the first read on this play zay flowers might be the first read on this play i don't know it's

an unknown and that scares me a little bit with the target volume there for Andrews. But my, my, my response to that would be, yeah, there are probably a lot of times in Deandre Hopkins offenses where he's schematically the first read. And it's like, that's what you do, right? Like, I don't know for sure that Mark Andrews is a Travis Kelsey level player where you scheme your whole offense around him, but we've seen an elite offense schemed around Mark Andrews before in a high-volume, in a high-target share role.

I don't know if that's necessarily a Greg Roman thing. Was Charles Clay the number one target in Buffalo when Greg Roman was the top guy? Or is it just that's what you do when you have Mark Andrews, right? Yeah. So my philosophy on Andrews is I draft him when the sort of sure things are off the board. So I think the trio of Jalen Waddell, Devontae Smith, Tee Higgins,

I'll take them before Mark Andrews. It gets difficult for me when you talk about a guy like Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, those types of players. So when you start feeling a little uncertain, to me, in round three, a little uncertain about who you're taking, okay, now we've reached the point

where the guys I feel like are definitely going to be must-starts week after week, are off the board. I think that's a great time to take Mark Andrews. Tough call is if you have an early pick and you're early in the third round and some of those guys are still on the board

and you know you have no chance of getting Andrews in the fourth round. You know, do you pull the trigger? I think it's justifiable. But I'm mid-round three on Andrews. I'm basically at his ADP. Yeah, in NSC drafts, he's sandwiched between Travis Etienne and Kenneth Walker. I think that's a perfect distillation of what you just said.

Yeah. Okay, so how about... Oh, just one word answer. Who do we think has more upside, Mark Andrews or Kyle Pitts? Kyle Pitts could be anything. No, it's got to be Mark Andrews. It has to be.

They're just not passing the ball. One word. I said one word. What's the chance of them throwing more? One word. One word. Mark Andrews. One word.

He said one word. Mark Andrews. That's two words, but I will not penalize you. Which top seven tight end has the most downside? It's Kyle Pitts. Yeah. Pitts. I feel like it might be Waller. They're Pits. I feel like,

I feel like it might be Waller. They're so similar. They're so similar to me. It could just be, well, Waller, I think has less performance risk unless he, but he's also old enough where it could just,

the wheels could completely fall off. Oh, he looked good last year when I saw him on tape with the Raiders. He looked very good. I agree. I mean, I didn't watch that much tape, but I watched a little, and I thought he looked good.

And, you know, his per-game averages, Chris, you mentioned Darren Waller per game. He played like four snaps of one game and had zero yards. So if you took that game out, it's only like five more yards per game. But after he came back from the injury, he wasn't playing his full snap shares. He still absolutely abused a linebacker on a touchdown. I think he abused a cornerback on a touchdown later in the year.

He definitely made some plays that most tight ends are not making. But, you know, look, I mean, he's got Daniel Jones. There's a lot of downside there, but there's also a lot of potential there. I feel so similarly about Pitts and Waller this year. Sure. Yeah. One guy doesn't have Drake London bothering him for targets. That's all I'm saying.

That's fair, but the Giants do have 14 small wide receivers who, if they all stack on each other's shoulders, could be Drake London. That's true. Okay. We are going to take a break. And you know what? For the quarterback, running back, and wide receiver shows,

we had the case for number one. We're definitely not doing that segment. Only one tight end has the case for number one this year, I think. But maybe we can do the case for number one. We're definitely not doing that segment. Only one tight end has the case for number one this year, I think. But maybe we could do the case for number two. We'll be right back. All right, the case to be tight end two. How many tight ends do you think could be tight end two? Obviously, we think at least five of them could be tight end three.

How many do you think could be tight end two this year? I think anyone from... I have three guys. I would say anyone through number seven on my rankings for sure, and maybe Pat Friermuth. Oh, I like Friermuth a lot. Whose name we haven't said yet. I don't think anyone else really has a path to number two,

but I think any of those, what, eight guys, seven guys could get there. As much as I like Friar Muth as a talent, he also needs to be put in that Pitts-Waller bucket of what the hell do we have at quarterback here?

Kenny Pickett threw like 10 touchdowns last year in 14 games. You're being extremely generous to Kenny Pickett. That is right. You just oversold his amount of touchdowns

by 44%. Oh my God. his amount of touchdowns by 44%. Oh my God. He had seven touchdowns last season. They had, they had two quarterbacks last year. I think they threw 11 touchdowns on the season. 12. Yes.

The, the team as a whole through 12 and they're bringing back the same offensive coordinator. How is that possible? Yeah. I think there's a decent chance that we want nobody in that steelers offense this reminds me so much of the 2021 giant season where they had an awful offense like last in the nfl and they're like we'll bring back jason garrett for next year because we have a young quarterback

it's really important to keep the continuity you have to make sure he doesn't have to learn a new system and i hate when nfl teams do that when they value the continuity of taking of redoing this of being in the same system over just the idea that no the system didn't work it was broken we weren't calling the plays good like we weren't moving the ball what's the quote from the joker in the dark knight everybody everybody freaks out nobody cares if the plan is insane as long as there's a plan something like that yeah the plan is that when he's in the bank i don't yeah i'm bad with movie quotes this is an azer azer you should know this quote i mean you've been so is insane as long as there's a plan, something like that. Yeah, is that when he's in the bank? I don't know. Yeah. I'm bad with movie quotes. This is an Acer thing.

Acer, you should know this quote. I mean, you've been so, you didn't know Seinfeld during the mic check. That was embarrassing. You didn't know Dumb and Dumber. You've never seen Dumb and Dumber. Never seen Dumb and Dumber. Yeah.

What the heck were we just talking about? Oh, Friar Mews. I think, I mean, I feel like if you're going to put Friar Mews' name in that discussion, I think Njoku has the outside chance as well because he could be number two on the team in targets with a much better quarterback. All right, so obviously a lot of guys could finish as tight end too.

I've said George Kittle was number two per game last year, and he's been, like I said, top three per game in five straight seasons in PPR. That's amazing. Pitts, it's an upside projection. Hawkinson, it's a target thing, and he could score more touchdowns. I mean, there's no reason why a guy who had 129 targets last year and was on a team that threw like the third or fourth most passes in the NFL for only about half the year.

Why he can't score more than six touchdowns, which he's never done. You know, Waller and, you know. Goddard, I actually don't think it's possible for Goddard to be tight end two unless one of the guys, Smith or Brown, misses four or more games. I don't know how you guys feel about that.

You're right, because even if that's the scenario, the Eagles are still, like, fourth highest run rate in the NFL. Smith or Brown misses four or more games. I don't know how you guys feel about that. You're right. Because even if that's the scenario, the Eagles still like fourth highest run rate in the NFL. So that's not going to change. They're a really good team running the football. So you're right. They,

they would need to, he would need an injury. That's why I don't put him in that mix. I don't really put Hawkinson in that mix either. Yeah. The team throws the football a lot, but I just don't see any way that he's going to, unless they an injury to Jordan Addison happens. Right.

Part of it is just the bar for being tight end too. Yes. Tends to be pretty low. Like last year, George Kittle was 13.5 points per game. So it's like, if you're telling me that the number two tight end is going to score 13.5 points per game.

Yeah. I think there's like eight guys who could do that, but that's not super impressive you know last year last year travis kelsey outscored the number two tight end fantasy by 102 fantasy points that's absurd yeah it's it's insane but you should not expect that to happen again yeah probably not it's it's a great it's a great talking point but it's probably not going to happen again but like 60 points probably will happen that's pretty very yeah yeah i think i mean i feel like pretty done with this conversation i don't know if there's anything i will say the pits thing the one thing that i find weird is drake london going

18 picks ahead of kyle pitts in I just, even if you, like, let's say Drake London's better. I don't really think there's a case for Drake London being a better NFL player. Basically, the entire case is that he was more productive on a per-game basis last season, but that's really skewed by the fact that he played in the four games where the Falcons

looked like an offense from the 20th century rather than the 19th century. I don't think the 19th century had football, but you follow what I'm saying. I think it may. If you take the four games that Drake London played with Desmond Ritter, he averaged 41 yards per game.

Kyle Pitts averaged 36. I just, I can't see taking Drake London ahead of Kyle Pitts, if only because if you have to bet on someone in that offense, bet on the guy where if he scores 13.5 points per game, he might be the number two player in his position. If Drake London scores 13.5 points per game,

he's like wide receiver 27. Yeah, it's such a good point you make because what if Kyle Pitts had played the last four games with Dexter Ritter and no London, then maybe he would have put up those big numbers. But the only thing that I disagree with is I do think you just have to go by ADP. I don't think you should necessarily rank London higher than Pitts, but because if you want one of them, you have to take London later.

You can't really wait on London. He's going where he's going. That's why I think I'd rather just pass on London. If I'm going to take a make a bet on someone from that passing offense figuring it out i think i'd rather just not take london but i'm gonna have like 15 teams so i'll probably have london on one of them just because there is potential there but i'm more likely to have pits on more of my teams than london i do think there was quite a bit of football played in the 19th century.

The first Rose Bowl game was January 1st of 1902. Okay, so yeah, there were probably a handful of football games in the 19th century, sure. The first American football match was played on November 6th, 1869. Oh my God. Man, Arthur Smith is that old.

Rutgers and Princeton. I did know Rutgers was in the first game. I didn't know much else about it. All right. So listen, I am going to work on this Apple podcast issue here. There are only a few of them that I can actually read. So I will read them now. And I apologize because I always tell you that's a great way to have your question read, and I mean that. Here's a keeper question from C. Smith. Draft picks not affected, can keep player as long as possible. It's half PPR. Who do I keep of these four?

Jefferson, Henry, Adams, Olave, ETN, and Mixon. I'm going to make Jefferson's one. So pick three of the next five and keep them forever. Henry, Adams, Olave, ETN, Mixon. Can you repeat them again? It's not going to be Mixon, I think. But three out of five. Henry, Adams, Olave, ETN, Mixon. Olave.

All right, Dan's keeping Olave. And is it just for 2023? No, no. Keep forever. Half PPL. Olave, Adams, and Henry for me. I don't care how old Henry is. I don't want ETN.

I don't want Mixon. Yeah, I think I'd just go with Olave, ETN, and Adams. Most people throw ETN in there, not me. Well, when you do Adams and Henry, that's pretty old. I could see maybe keeping one of the old guys, one of the geezers. This is the only other – no, I can't even read this. I can't even read this because the stupid thing. I'm sorry about that, people. It's just too long.

You know what this reminded me of? What? Have you ever seen the Bill O'Reilly bit with the tell prompter that wasn't working? Turn the show? We'll do it live! We'll do it live. Can't read the stupid thing. That's tomorrow, and that's it for today.

What does that mean? Turn the show? He goes crazy. It was somebody roasting me for my burnt ends fantasy Jeopardy. Oh, man, I've been hearing a lot of people roast you. My friend Steve Hall was roasting the hell out of you. You don't like burnt ends? No, I did a fantasy Jeopardy answer, and it was...

It made no sense. Keith's meat was the category answer and it was it made no sense heath's meat was the category and it was like this uh this uh meat is named is named after like the way it's cooked and the location on the animal and nobody agreed with that well yeah because it's not the location of the animal it's the ends of the cut of brisket. Okay, well, it's still on the animal, right? It's on the end. The worst question ever delivered in Fantasy Jeopardy history. It was an answer, not a question.

That is my favorite barbecue thing, by the way. Burnt ends. Incredible. John Brown's Smokehouse in Queens. If you guys want to meet up, that is my favorite barbecue spot in the city. You know about John Brown's? Oh, I've been to John Brown's. When I lived in barbecue spot in the city. You know about John Brown's? Oh, I've been to John Brown's.

When I lived in Astoria by Bitmers, I went to John Brown's at one point, Chris. It was absolutely disgusting. My roommate made fun of me three times a week at minimum. I would go to the gym and then go to John Brown's right after every time. Isn't that kind of defeating the purpose of going to the gym? The total opposite. That's why you come around to throwing 250 grams of protein after your workout, Adam.

Learn about this stuff. I am not interested in that. Get swole, Adam. All right, here's one question I'm going to read from Ross. He says, I just had my performance review at work. We had to complete a self-assessment

and look at ways to improve. As a CBS podcast crew, I was wondering if there are any specific areas you are focusing on, individually or collectively, this season to improve on and hone your analyst power. Oh, boy. It's a loaded question. Believe it or not, I actually always try to talk less. It's really hard for me. And maybe when I'm in my 50s, like 11 years from now, I'll be able to master that.

But I am trying. I have one that I need to try to do better on. And that is when you have a good point that pops in your mind, wait till the other person is finished speaking before you drop your point in. It's tougher than it sounds. That's for me. Wait till the other person is finished speaking before you drop your point in. It's tougher than it sounds. Yeah. Yeah. It's that's,

that's for me. It's, it's, uh, not interrupting is, is my biggest. Not interrupting is very difficult, Chris.

You just did it. I know. It was a joke, dad. And especially in like this four, we're not, we're not in the same room. We're on slightly different delays in terms of like where our,

it's, It's hard, you know? Yeah, I don't know. I think you guys are great. Thank you. I think you guys are great, too. I think I'm going to be more complimentary to the people I'm on the show with. I also want to do a better job this year. This is more analyst based of utilizing the data that we have at our disposal. I don't want to know if we're allowed to say it, but we have a really good data source here at CBS Sports. True media. I say it all the time. There are ways to maximize the usage of true media that I

don't know that Dave Richard does a great job of and Jacob Gibbs does a great job of. I need to sit down. I'm going to make Jacob Gibbs spend a half hour on video call. I did this with you last year and you weren't even paying attention. This is a lie. I always pay attention to Adam. Not one time have I not paid attention to him.

True media is a game changer. But yeah, no, that's, I'm using, I mentioned the Dallas Goddard stat that was, to get us back on the topic of fantasy football, the Goddard stat that I mentioned, he is 48th among tight ends and end zone targets over the past two seasons. He is tied with, among others, Eric Tomlinson, Eric Sobert, Blake Jarwin, CJ Uzama, Noah Gray, and Chika Konkwo,

who we like. But yeah, he's got four end zone targets over the past two seasons, courtesy of our friends at TruMedia. it's so easy to look that up just little filters great stuff yeah it's so funny it's like another thing i could do better at is shorter episodes but every time we just spent like probably five minutes just bs which is fine but thank you everybody for watching listening we've got beyond the box score tomorrow we are back monday because we work monday um and then t Tuesday you'll hear Dynasty. But if you're taking a long weekend

or whatever, have an amazing 4th of July USA. And we'll talk to you tomorrow on Game 2 Football.