Fantasy Football Today - Top 5 Wide Receivers (After the Big Three)! (06/23 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 23, 2022

We know who the three best Fantasy WRs are, but let's talk about the next five. Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams and more! We start with a Lamb vs. Keenan Allen debate, talk briefly about Scott Fish Bowl scoring (9:30) and then read some YouTube questions (12:00) about WR philosophy ... News and notes (16:25) on Chris Godwin, the Texans RBs and Michael Gallup. Then we're back to debating the Top 5 WRs (after the Big Three). Who has the most upside (26:55)? Most downside (28:00)? ... We debate Diggs vs. Adams (30:00), discuss why Deebo Samuel is still a Top 8 WR despite some concerns (37:40) and chat about Mike Evans (43:05) before reading your Apple Podcast questions (44:55) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to your Thursday, Thursday? Thursday. Yeah, I'm all thrown off by the four-day week. Welcome to your Thursday edition of Fantasy Football Today. Off to a rip-roaring start. Adam Azer with Heath Cummings and Dave Richards.

Richards? We're talking about Adam E. We're talking about Adam E. Deere. We're talking about wide receivers. The top five wide receivers, sort of. The top five wide receivers after the big three. No need to debate Cup, Jefferson Chase. What about four, five, six, seven, and eight? Who are they? Well, they're pretty similar for Dave Richards and Heath Cummings,

but not entirely similar. Keenan Allen and C.D. Lamb are the big differences. We'll start with that. We're also going to read your Apple podcast questions. So you can leave us a nice five-star review

on Apple podcast with a question, and your question will likely be read. You guys doing better than me? You're all set? Good to go? Organized? we're doing great

jamie keep it up all right so a cup jefferson chase are your top three wide receivers after that in full ppr heath has davante adams dave has davante adams then five is stefan Diggs for both of you. You both have Debo Samuel and Mike Evans at seven and eight. For Dave, it's Debo seven, Evans eight. And for Heath, it's the opposite, Evans then Debo. Number six, though, is different. Number six is Keenan Allen for Heath. And number six is CeeDee Lamb for Dave. So let's start with that.

CeeDee Lamb versus Keenan Allen. And by the way, Dave has Allen 10th, and Lamb is 9th for Heath. So let's start with that. Heath, go ahead. Keenan Allen as your number six wide receiver. He's pretty ambitious in full PPR. And CeeDee Lamb outside your top eight,

you have him 9th. Go ahead. Yeah, this is entirely a P uh, a PPR debate. I don't know how big the difference for Dave is between Keenan Allen's ranking and PPR and non, but he's one of the biggest differences for me, Alan, uh, six or seven in PPR and, uh, outside of the top 12 and non, but like the difference is, and we talked about this a week ago with Lamb, I've seen Keenan Allen earn 10-plus targets per game consistently over the last few years with Justin Herbert. Not only have we not seen CeeDee Lamb do it, because it's only been his first two years in the league, so you can kind of give him a pass on that.

We've not seen anybody in a Kellen Moore offense really come close to that. They have really spread the ball around, and they don't have as many weapons this year. Mari Cooper's gone. Maybe they will really turn into an offense that targets one wide receiver heavily, but they've not been that in the past.

And so lamb last year, I think had 120 targets in 16 games. I've got him projected for an increase up to 138. Um, but just not, I, I have a hard time getting on Allen's level and that, that difference between their catches. I think Allen had 30 more catches last year. I haven't projected for 20 more catches this year. Um, and it's not like glam, like if, if, if you're not sure the guy's going to be a huge catch guy, some guys like Mike Evans can make up for that because they score a bunch of touchdowns or they have a huge yards per catch.

Lamb's not done that either. I think he's actually scored fewer touchdowns than Keenan Allen over the last two seasons. They had the same amount six in 2020, 2021. Allen had eight in 2020. Allen had three more the year before that. Okay. Windland was a rookie. Yeah.

Right. And without Dak Prescott for most of that year. And they were off by 36 yards. According to the math in my head last year, same amount of touchdowns, basically the same amount of yards. The catches are the difference. And I totally get that for me.

It is a ceiling versus floor play. Keenan Allen is safe, especially in full PPR. Non-PPR, kind of safe. I still have him as a top 15 wide receiver in non-PPR, and I love the offense that he's in, but I feel like what you got last year from Keenan Allen is what you're going to get this year, and that's not a bad thing. He was 12th in PPR points per game, and he's going to get you the targets that he talked about. But I think CeeDee Lamb's got a chance to really do more with the targets he gets, even if he doesn't quite get as many targets as Keenan Allen. I think he's just more of an explosive receiver than Keenan Allen. I think he's, this is going to sound weird,

more of a playmaker than Keenan Allen at this point in their respective careers. And I think Dallas kind of painted themselves into a corner with their passing game. Unless Gallup makes an unbelievable recovery, Lamb is going to get peppered. There isn't going to be another wide receiver, though, that gets anywhere close to the same type of target volume that Lamb will get this year. And Dalton Schultz is going to be the only other guy that I think can come relatively close to that type of target share that I think can come relatively close to that type of target share.

I think that you're playing the upside card with CeeDee Lamb. I see the Cowboys throwing a lot this year, and I think you're going to see CeeDee Lamb break through for double-digit touchdowns on top of it. The most targets I'm seeing in the Dak Prescott era is 133 from Des Bryant, but that was a 27% target share, but that was all the way back in 2017,

which I think was Dak Prescott's rookie year or close to his rookie year. Early on his career, they weren't throwing that much, but it was only, it was Des Bryant. And second on the team was Jason Witten followed by Terrence Williams, Cole Beasley. So that's hopefully if you're,

if you're a CD lamb guy, you're hoping for something like that. A 27% target share would be amazing. Yeah. It would give him wide receiver one potential. But you're just hoping that he gets, I don't know, a 24% target? What kind of target share? He was right around 22% in the first half of last year, if I recall.

Okay. Heath, do you have that number? I think I have 23 projected right now. Right. So, Heath's projecting him for the type of target share that we're looking for. Well, apparently not. I think everybody would agree that 130 targets for CeeDee Lamb

is totally reasonable. Yeah, and it's a little low for a top five wide receiver. If you want him to finish in the top five, it's very low for number one, if you have ambitions of it being number one. But I don't think anyone thinks Keenan Allen's going to be wide receiver one this year in this debate. But it can happen, I guess. But, yeah, I don't know.

If you look at wide receivers who have had 120 or fewer targets in 16 games, there aren't that many that have finished top five. Chris Goblin comes to mind a couple years ago. He's one of the only ones. Jordy Nelson, like 10 or 11 years ago. So 130 targets is not typical. That's pretty low for a top five wide receiver. What?

You have him sixth. I'm also not saying that 130 targets is what he will end up with. Yeah. Because they're just, I'm really, I don't know if concerned is the right word. I'll use it. I'm concerned there isn't another guy to warrant or earn, whatever word you want to use there, targets in this Dallas offense.

I think Lamb's just going to see a ton. I think there's upside for him to lead the league in targets. Yeah. I mean, and that's the problem with projections, I guess. I have a harder time imagining those things that are completely out of character for the team and the coordinator and the quarterback. So let me, another question here,

we'll end this discussion and move on. No Dallas wide receiver in the Dak Prescott era has caught more than eight touchdown passes. And actually there are a decent amount of examples of top five wide receivers recently with eight or fewer touchdown passes, not including Deebo Samuel, who only had six, but he had eight rushing touchdowns last year. Last year was not one of those years, but you've seen Calvin Ridley,

Stephon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins twice, Julio Jones multiple times, all finish as top five receivers with eight or fewer touchdown catches, or maybe for ridley was nine um chris goblin had nine michael thomas has not had nine when they were top two wide receivers but that's that does stand out to me no more than eight touchdown catches for any cowboys receiver in the dak prescott era does that matter to you heath i mean it just kind of goes with what i was saying about the targets i just think that this offense and this quarterback and this coordinator have a history of spreading the ball around.

Now, Dave's right. They don't have as many seemingly good options. My argument might be a good argument for Tolbert as a sleeper. Okay. Sure. All right. Let's move on then. We are reading your Apple Podcast questions today,

so please send them in. Go to Apple Podcasts. Leave a comment. Five-star review. Please tell everybody what you like about the show, and then you can leave a question as well. You can also email us at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com, and watch us on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasyfootball today.

We're going to have live streams every Tuesday afternoon for the foreseeable future. Live mock drafts getting you ready for your upcoming drafts. And we've got Scott Fish coming on next Tuesday. We're going to do a Scott Fish Bowl mock draft, which check out Heath's thread, by the way, comparing Josh Allen to Lamar Jackson and why you need to pay attention to your league scoring format,

especially in the Scott Fish Bowl. But we'll help you out with that. We'll help you figure out who the most valuable players are. Was that thread the thing that lets you know that completion percentage matters in Scott Fishbowl? No, I knew that. Okay. I didn't know if you looked at the rules last year or not.

I look at the rules, but sometimes I'm just like, okay, this is too much here. I'm just going to draft good players. Tight end premium is huge. Tight end premium is a huge deal. And so is the half point per catch, half point per first down. Yep.

Was it always that way or was it full point? It's been that way for a few years, right? It was that way. But I don't even really factor in half point for first down. Except for quarterback rushing totals because quarterbacks get

the half point for rushing first downs. Yes. And it just makes it much more like a non-PPR league than a PPR league. Really? And it emphasizes yards more. It's the easiest way to project it. Yeah, okay.

That makes sense. And the tight end premium is a full point for a tight end catch, right? And a half point. And a first down. Oh, a full point. Oh my gosh.

Yeah. So I've got, but still because the tight ends don't have the yards, the elite running backs and wide receivers do like, I, I still, I don't think I have... Let's see.

Kelsey and Andrews I have projected for around 330 points. So basically, better than every wide receiver besides Cup or Jefferson. And better than every running back besides Taylor, Henry, or Eckler. So there's basically five non-quarterbacks

ahead of those two tight ends in my projections. And then you say well they're obviously their first round picks but it's also super flex so people are going to take quarterbacks early so yeah it'll be interesting to see i i uh and it's third third round reversal right yes third round reversal what pick did you get i took the ninth pick because i knew it was third third round reversal i wanted an early third round pick. I took the 12th pick.

Yeah, it wasn't available in the Miami, Florida league. What league are you in? Fort Lauderdale with Dave. Oh, you guys are both in Fort Lauderdale? We are not in the same league anymore. You left? I moved west. I left for Las Vegas. I offered to leave for Kansas City,

but that must have been why Scott didn't take me up on it. I had some good chatter here going on in YouTube. Let's see. Just for reference, there are 15 quarterbacks. I said five non-quarterbacks are ahead of Andrews and Kelsey in the projections.

There are 15 quarterbacks projected for more points. Here's a question from John. Would you take Adams or digs if they're available at pick 15 or 16, even if you took one of the big three at picks nine and 10? Yeah, I would. Well, what's the scoring that kind of plays into it for me?

What's the scoring and how many wide receivers do you start? If it's full, nobody can actually imagine you taking two wide receivers do you start? If it's full PPR... Nobody can actually imagine you taking two wide receivers with your first. I know, I know. But I think it's a good move this year. Because I expect the running backs to dry out pretty quickly in round one by the time you get to the point where you look at Kup and Jefferson and Chase

and you go, these guys are pretty awesome. It has to be full ppr start there if it's not ppr half ppr i'm just going to keep going with the bull rush toward running backs but if it's full ppr and you need to start three of them and you've got a late one man i have no problem whatsoever going receiver receiver i want to see that in a mock give me a late pick without a run. Sometimes we do these mocks and Camaras, they're late. I'm going to take Camara over them. The problem for Dave is going to be that first round pick. He's going to be taking the running backs over the wide receivers. But for me, it's if...

No, not if it's late enough and not if the running backs go as... If it's pick 12 and there's already 13 running backs off the board, Dave will be a wide receiver, wide receiver. For me, if Aaron Jones is off the board, DeAndre Swift is off the board, and the top running back is Leonard Fournette, and if I already took a wide receiver in round one, the best running back is Fournette,

we'll see if he can lose some weight. But right now, I'm a little nervous about it, so I would definitely go with that second wide receiver. How about you, Heath? Yeah, I've got both Adams and digs in my top 15 so no problem with it at all okay i believe i do too i'm i'm actually uh i might be it might be a slow turn but i'm i've been thinking about you've been talking about doing it for for a lot of the offseason it is every time we have a mock, I draft.

I look at your team, and you've got four running backs in the first six rounds. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So that part might still – it's tough to break these habits. But I also want to stick with what I truly believe in when it comes to how I want to build a team. We just did a draft, and I had an early first-round pick, took Derek Henry in round one. And I get to round two, and I think Saquon was there, and Derek Henry in round one and I get to round two and I think Saquon was there and there wasn't a receiver that I was in love with. So why am I going to force it and take a receiver when I'm going to take a chance on Barkley who is sounding

better as the off season goes on. It doesn't seem like he's in the same place as he was this time last year. And then in round three, Javante Williams was still there, and there wasn't a receiver that I was in love with. So I went with a running back again. I'm not going to force it, Heath. It snips. If there's one thing you've taught me, it snips. Yeah.

Surely no intentional positional strategy. Yes. It seems, based on your history, that you may have an intentional positional strategy. Yes. It seems, based on your history, that you may have an intentional positional strategy. It's the direct Antana running backs. Yeah, I agree. I agree. I know. I know. I'm trying to fight back against something that I've been doing for almost two decades, over two decades. Jesus. All right. One more question here. One more question. Go ahead. From huge... I'm not going to read. That sounds dirty. I'm not going to read that screen name. Tyreek Hill over Devontae Adams, he says.

You guys don't have Tyreek Hill in your top eight. You have Devontae Adams four. So what are the odds? What are the chances Tyreek Hill is better than Devontae Adams this year? 40%. I was going to say lower than that. 45%. I've got a real low confidence on both those guys. 40%? I was going to say lower than that. 45%? I've got a real low confidence on both those guys.

I don't have as low of a confidence on Adams. Don't you have Adams fourth? I mean, in confidence in where they're going to finish. Yes, I have Adams fourth, and probably he should be fifth. I should probably put him behind Diggs. Yeah, I get that. Yeah. In non-PPR, I've got Hill and Adams back-to-back.

Okay. All right, guys. Thank you for answering those questions, and thank you all on YouTube for the chatter. News and notes. Sad news to start the show. Well, to start the notes, sorry. Baltimore linebacker Jalen Ferguson passed away,

and so did former defensive lineman Tony Saragusa. A tough day for the Ravens and the NFL and and obviously those families so sorry to hear it our condolences for sure you want a goose story yeah yeah 2002 or 2003 they played Miami in the first round of the playoffs they crushed the Dolphins 20 to 3 and I went into the locker room after the game, and it was a party in there, and Syragusa was leading the charge, dancing around, and he was thrilled to have won the game and to advance in the playoffs. I thought it was interesting that he was wearing a Mickey Mouse T-shirt

underneath all of his gear that day. Just totally excited. You're hearing everybody talk about how much energy that he had and how good of a duty was in the locker room. I got that from spending, you know, five minutes in the locker room and talking to him after the game. He was super pumped. Talked to him about it years later at a fantasy convention.

And he was like, great. That's what you remember about me is that I'm running around in a Mickey Mouse shirt. I said, yeah, but you were really happy that day. He like yeah i really was we won the game duh so uh it it sucks man and he was also you know character on sopranos if i recall yeah and 25th hour which was a pretty good movie and he was really good not as well remembered as sopranos no but it's actually a solid movie um and uh i think I would say my favorite Spike Lee movie. He was very good in it. Tampa Bay beat writer Greg Allman would not be surprised if Chris Godwin opened the season on the pup list.

Let me tell you what Russell Gage did in the last 10 games of the season. He was on pace for 97 catches. This is with the Falcons last year with a terrible, I mean, look at Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan, Matt Ryan, Matt Ryan. He wasn't very good last year. His numbers weren't Falcons last year was a terrible. I mean, look at the Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan, Matt Ryan, Matt Ryan. He wasn't very good last year. His numbers weren't very good last year. Well, that's partially because Russell Gage was his number one wide receiver.

Sure, but I think it's actually interesting when we talk about Kyle Pitts and this huge downgrade in passing offense. Well, their passing offense was pretty lousy last year. But anyway, on that offense, he was on pace for, without Calvin Ridley, 97 catches, 1,148 yards, five touchdowns. That would have made him, per game, number 31 in non-PPR, number 25 in both half and full PPR. So that was Russell Gage last year.

If Godwin starts the year on the pup list, that's six games, right? Six games he'd be out? Four, I think. Four? Didn't they change it? No, I don't think they did. I thought short-term IR was four now? Right. That changed from three to four. Yes no i don't think they thought short term ir was four now or right that changed from three to four yes i don't think pup has changed so it would be a

minimum of six weeks yeah um all right so i'm reading and or i think it did change pup changed i'm almost certain somebody else do some research, but it looks like... Sorry. What happened? I'm not finding it as quick as I can, but I'm very sure. Minimum six game was the old rule, and I believe they have modified the rule this offseason. I think you might be right. I'm just doing a quick Google search right now. It is correct. I was going have modified the rule this offseason. I think you might be right. I'm just doing a quick Google search right now.

It is correct. I was going to play the Adam, you were right. How did I miss that? Wow. I didn't really. Now players are eligible to begin to practice after just four games. With no... Okay, you figure that out.

I'm going to get back to the... I'll figure it out. Houston rookie running back Damian Pierce should have plenty of chances to become the lead running back by the end of the season, according to ESPN's Sarah Barshop. Not a huge surprise there.

Michael Gallup should be ready sometime in September, according to ESPN's Todd Archer. Are you drafting Russell Gage or Michael Gallup first? Gage. I have Gage ahead right now. I don't really like it, but yeah. I don't get that. Gage eventually is going to be the number three guy.

It could be four weeks from what I understand about Pup. Yeah. You're right. I'm moving Gallup ahead of Gage. Let's go, Heath. Gallup is coming off a torn ACL. Yeah. That does hurt, too. gallop is coming off a torn acl so yeah so that does hurt too but

engage is potentially replacing a receiver who is coming off of the torn acl for the first four games minimum of the season i go back to the damien pierce thing yeah yeah yeah go because i've had it this way in my projections for a while and i always just change it in my rankings but with the rashad penny news that he's the the favorite if he can stay healthy to be the lead running back and the damian pierce thing that we all pretty much thought already is it really that crazy to think damian pierce outscores ken walker this year no no i don't but you you're you're talking about a running back.

How does that happen? I think Penny would have to stay healthy and continue to play well and force Walker into a complementary role, and Pierce breaks out in Houston for whatever a breakout running back in Houston would do. Which offense is going to be worse? Probably the Seattle offense, right? If they don't improve their quarterbacks it's certainly possible but i think it's going to be close and i think the run game in seattle will be better

than the run game in houston all right next note jalen ramsey had shoulder surgery should be ready for week one austin hooper is a preferred target for r Tannehill, according to ESPN's Teron Davenport. He's like the only one that's healthy. Hooper or Cameron Brait? I believe I've got Brait higher just because it's Brady throwing the passes. Both of them have tough schedules to begin the season, if I recall. I don't have either in my top 24 tight ends,

but I would say Hoover. Carolina wide receiver Terrace Marshall has had a good spring. Keep an eye on him. The Steelers signed defensive tackle Larry Ogunjian. He's going nowhere unless Robbie Anderson is out of there. Maybe he'll retire. I mean, there's a chance that Robbie Anderson

is just as bad as he was last year, and they throw the ball to Marshall over Anderson, right? Yeah, absolutely. So he could overtake him on the depth chart or something like that, get his playing time. Sure. Who's their quarterback? I mean, that's terrible as well currently.

And San Francisco would only keep... Oh, gosh, no. Enough with Cam. Move on. I mean, he's better than Sam Darnold. Baker or Cam? I don't know if he's better than Sam Darnold. I'm not saying Cam's good, but Sam Darnold's not a top 40 quarterback in the NFL.

Yeah, I don't know that Cam is anymore. He's been so bad. He's had some extenuating circumstances the last two years. He's been in some very difficult situations to succeed. I think Darnold's probably better than Cam as a passer. But Cam at least brings something that defenses have to account for. Could Darnold at least be a little bit under the average line behind an improved offensive line?

I don't want to call him an average quarterback, but just a little latch below because that offensive line's better. When you say average, are you talking about the starting quarterbacks or all the quarterbacks in the NFL? Because I think all the quarterbacks, he is slightly above average, right around 40 to 45.

No, I don't think he can be an average starting quarterback in the NFL. No. There are not 90 quarterbacks. What. There are not 90 quarterbacks. What? There are not 90 quarterbacks on active rosters. In the NFL? Well, usually, I think teams just have two active.

Make the number 60. If you make the number 60, then no, he's below average. No, he's definitely not above average. We're going to count practice squad quarterbacks as well. We'll get up to 100 quarterbacks, and he is above average. Are we counting people like Cam and other quarterbacks that might get signed? You know what?

We'll just blow up that number to 100. I would like to go back and find all the audio of people saying Sam Darnold was clearly better than Gardner Minshew and replay that. Let's take a break here and come back and actually talk about wide receivers. Devante Adams, Stephon Diggs, Mike Evans, Debo Samuel, we still have to get into them. We'll talk about the next five after the big three right after this on Fantasy Football today.

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That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. So it's Cooper Cupp, Justin Jefferson, and Jamar Chase in some order. And then the next five for Heath are Adams, Diggs, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, and Deebo Samuel. For Dave, the next five are Adams, Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel, and Mike Evans. So again, just to recap, one through five are the same. Cup, Jefferson, Chase.

You guys have Jefferson over Chase? In PPR. Okay, so Cup, Jefferson, Chase, Adams, Diggs. same cup jefferson chase you guys have jefferson over chase in ppr okay so cup jefferson chase adams digs top five is the same then cd lamb is six for dave and ninth for heath keenan allen is sixth for heath and tenth for dave seven and eight are debo samuel and mike evans for both dave and heath although the order order is flip-flopped. But yeah. We could make this more fun and just use my projections instead of my rankings and add Brandon Cooks in the discussion. Oh my goodness.

No, no, that's okay. Where is Cooks in your projections? Sixth in PPR, 11th in mine. Wow. And in your rankings? I like him too. I don't know if I like him that much. In your rankings, Heath? 11 or 12 9th. Wow. I like him too. I don't know if I like him that much. In your rankings, Heath?

11 or 12. Okay. All right. Of these next five or six, you want to throw in Keenan Allen and CeeDee Lamb. Of these next five or six wide receivers, who has the most upside? Devontae.

Yeah. Devontae Adams, for sure. For sure? Not Diggs? Diggs is a close second. No, I don't think. How much could Devontae Adams lose off what he's done the past two years and still be better than Stephon Diggs the past two years?

Considerable amount, right? We talked about this. Yeah. Previous show. Derek Carr is not as good as Aaron Rodgers, but this is going to make some people mad. Strictly as a passer, are we sure that Stephon Diggs has a better quarterback? Yeah.

I mean, not by statistics, not by like yards per attempt. By the eyeball test? Yeah. By the eyeball test? Yeah. Running out of the equation. Yes. Yeah, Allen's better. Well, because Allen has much more ability

to get the ball downfield. Yes. Got more arm talent. Yes. But, okay. So that's who has the most upside. Who has the most downside? So again, it's Adams, Diggs, Evans, Debo, Keenan Allen, CeeDee Lamb.

Who has the most downside? I mean, I feel like it's either Keenan Allen or Debo. I was going to say Debo or Lamb, so there we go. No, I think it's probably those three for sure. But I would say it's Debo just because he did something last year

that we've never seen before. And he didn't like it. Of course, those things don't often get repeated. It wasn't that we saw something that we haven't seen before from him. He did something that we haven't seen before ever, right?

Right. He's crazy. 14 touchdown't seen before ever, right? Right. He's crazy. 14 touchdowns, eight of them on the ground. And I think he had, I could try to find this stat, but I think he had more 20-plus yard rushing touchdowns than Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara had 20-plus carries, 20-plus yard carries. So those were just his 20-plus yard touchdown runs.

Well. Kind of crazy for Debo Samuel. And what if they throw 510 passes with Trey Lantz under center? Mm-hmm. Okay, yeah, so. And you better hope he's running like crazy again. Debo Samuel had three touchdown runs of 20 to 27 yards Derek Henry Ezekiel Elliott Alvin Kamara and Austin Eckler all had at least

200 carries and only three of them all season went only three carries all season of 20 or more yards so that's goodness I know crazy right and he averaged 18 yards per catch, which nobody does year over year. Right. And this might be the same answer, but who are you most nervous about in this group? Debo. Debo, for sure. Okay.

Okay, so then let's talk about these guys. Now, we talked about most of them on the top 24 countdowns last week, but that's okay. Devontae Adams, number four. Stefan Diggs, number five. Why don't we do it as sort of a debate? Now you guys each have Adams over Diggs

so it's not much of a debate for you. So I'll just, I have Diggs over Adams in my theoretical rankings. I think last year was a little disappointing. And Josh Allen was a little disappointing last year. But I expect Allen to improve from his passing numbers last year, especially the completion percentage.

I think he's better than that. I think that Bill's offense got a little bit figured out, and then they corrected it, just like we expect Mahomes to bounce back from a subpar by his standard season. I expect that from Allen, and I think that Diggs goes with him. They also lost numbers two and three on the team in targets,

which can't hurt Stephon Diggs, but the bottom line is I expect him to be among the league leaders in targets. I expect him to be among the league leaders in yards. We haven't seen the touchdowns, but I don't see why we can't see the touchdowns. I think he's been a little bit unlucky with touchdowns. I wouldn't say that, but I think he's got 15 touchdown potential, even though we haven't see the touchdowns. I think he's been a little bit unlucky with touchdown. I wouldn't say that,

but I think he's got 15 touchdown potential, even though we haven't seen it. So I think digs is actually safer than Devante Adams. And that's why I'm taking him. Go ahead. Okay. So I think we should go back to one of the first things that you said that I want to dig a little deeper into,

and it goes back to what I said, but Josh Allen will have a better completion percentage this year than he did last year. And he did have a year in 2020 where he completed 69% of his passes. The year before that, it was 59%. Look, the year before that, he stunk. He stunk. He stunk. Well, completion percentage-wise, he stunk last year.

Yeah. So why is the – when I look at it and look at his career, it appears that 2020 was an outlier, not last year was an outlier. Okay, so hold on one second. I need to do some quick math. Can you remember this number, please? Yes. 708. That's my area code on my phone. 708.

708. I actually was able to remember myself. If you do throw in the two playoff games, he completed 64.5% of his passes. That's the thing. I see a guy who, against the Patriots and the Chiefs in the playoffs,

threw for 637 yards and nine touchdowns. I just, you know, and then I bet if you even removed that crazy Patriots game where he was 15 of 30 in one of the worst weather games that we've ever seen, basically, in terms of the passing game. Mac Jones threw three times. I just don't think he's a 62% or 63% completion rate.

I'm going to give him 66%. And, you know, just say he's in the middle of where he was. And I don't know how relevant this is to Diggs anyway. But I just think Allen is a better quarterback than what we saw last year as a passer, even though he finished as the number one quarterback. And I think Diggs will improve, because it was a little bit of a disappointing season for Diggs.

So, did that answer your question? Yeah, I just, I mean, it does. You think Josh Allen is better than his number says. Better than his, yes, I do. I think, yeah. I just, and I think what you have to do to believe that, and it's perfectly fair to do that is just completely throw out the first two years of his career and say

that 2020 was more real than 2021. But even if I give him some, I'll give him some regression from 2020. I just, I'll put them in the middle of 2020 and 2021. Yeah. And I don't know how, how realist, how much that affects digs, but I think it affects him enough. I just think that there is more downside for Adams guys because we don't talk about Hunter Renfro. We don't want Hunter Renfro on our fantasy teams at his cost, which I will tell you right now.

We're not excited about Hunter Renfro. He's wide receiver 31 going in between Juju Smith Schuster, Elijah Moore, Michael Thomas after Darnell. Is that behind Gabriel Davis? It's eight picks behind Gabriel Davis, three wide receiver picks behind Gabriel Davis. But I feel like Renfro could really be just a thorn in the side of both Adams and Waller.

It's possible. There are just more things that could go wrong for Adams, in my opinion, than could for Diggs. Sure. But I think Heath was kind of alluding to this. If you're going to talk about what Waller and Renfro could do to Devontae Adams, you have to talk about what Gabriel Davis and the tight ends in Buffalo and now James Cook. Not even Crowder. Not in the same ballpark to me because wellfro and Waller are 1,000-yard guys with track records. Gabriel Davis hasn't even had a 600-yard season.

I'm not saying that— They were 1,000-yard guys without Devontae Adams on the field. Right, but Waller is, we think, better than Gabriel Davis. Gabriel Davis? Yeah, as much as I love Gabe. Who has more competition? Who has more competition, Adams or Diggs? I would be more open to the Waller argument

than the Renfro argument. Hunter Renfro is not affecting Devontae Adams. No, he can affect him in an annoying sort of way, a couple catches a game, something like that. He'll steal six touchdowns this year. He's a bigger factor to me than James Crowder. Yeah.

Yeah, but Crowder's going to steal targets too. And James Cook is going to steal a bunch of targets. I've had basically all the words here. If you guys want to move on, we can. I get where you're coming from. And I think it's probably safer to go with Diggs ahead of Devonta Adams on that logic.

But I think Devonta Adams has figured out how to be an amazing receiver himself. And I think the fallback from Rodgers to Carr isn't going to be so painful on his numbers. I don't think he's going to match what he did last year. But I think he's still going to be in that 20 PPR point per game range. I think the Raiders are going to throw at him a lot. I think Carr's going to want to throw at him a lot. The one area where I might be a little nervous is going to be in touchdowns because defenses are going to have to make a decision. Do you double-team Adams or do you double-team Waller?

Waller talked about it this week. He said Carr's definitely doing his fair share of passing to me in practice, but they're of the mindset that whoever's single covered is who's getting the ball in the red zone. All right, let's talk about it. I do think, Adam, just to go back to your point, I do think the completion percentage thing matters for Diggs just because he had a 77% catch rate in 2020. That fell to 63% last year. Yes, it did. I bet you if you included the playoffs and removed that Patriots game, I bet you're

at 65% completion rate. I think it's possible. Playing your home games in Buffalo and playing the AFC East, they might have a bad weather game this year. Not like that, though. That was crazy. That was the worst passing environment I can remember. Was it worse than the Cleveland?

Remember the Cleveland back-to-back weeks? I think so. It was so bad that the Patriots threw three times. All right. Stephon Diggs and Adams in the books here. They're four and five in the rankings. Then we already did the CeeDee Lamb, Keenan Allen debate. Lamb is six for Dave.

Allen is six for Heath. So how about Mike Evans and Debo Samuel? you guys have them seven and eight for heath it's evans then debo for david's debo then evans here's my debo question if he has the most bus potential in this group like we already said if you're the most nervous about him why is he still a top eight wide receiver dave debo because he can still command a large target chair in San Francisco. He's proven that he can be hyper-efficient when he gets the ball. And even though he's complaining about being a running back, I think that's more about him complaining about not getting paid like a running back and wide receiver. But push comes to shove,

I bet he'll be okay taking a handful of carries and definitely a lot of tunnel screens bubble screens those kinds of plays where the pass actually goes backward and it's considered a run instead of a pass but now he's out in space against defensive backs instead of in in tight quarters against defensive linemen and linebackers and i think the 49ers have not that they've painted themselves into a corner but they're going to need to have explosive plays if they're going to put up tons of points each week i don't know if their running backs are going to be able to be dominant this year i'm a little worried about the offensive line and i'm just not sure what the running backs are going to bring

and i think they're going to end up leaning on debo quite a bit so i don't mind taking the chance on them with a late round two pick. I think my answer is more, who would you rank number eight? I would probably have Lamb. In PPR, I would have Lamb and Keenan Allen ahead of Debo. And then, which I think you guys wouldn't really have a huge problem with.

And then it comes down to Tyreek Hill. And other than, yeah, I can't. God, Debo just scares me so much but he's so good i couldn't believe how good he was last year i didn't know he was this talented he's obviously just a mega star but i think the 49ers are going to be one of the toughest teams to project and rank you know oh yeah for sure with the lance situation and the the outlandish numbers that devo put up there's um it's very uncomfortable dealing with those but it's like i think it's maybe more of an argument for cup jefferson and chase even earlier because i know wide receivers deep and there's a bunch of guys that are going

to be number two wide receivers, but there's not as many surefire, like all the number one wide receivers besides those guys. And probably dig like digs is going to be at least a low end. Number one, there's a lot more question marks this year. Can I give you this one last thing? We talked about it earlier this week, or maybe it was last week, Adam, the number of snaps and targets these guys in San Francisco played with Trey Lance. I think we did it on the... We did it off the air after FFT and five. Okay. Debo had a 29.8% target per route run rate when Trey Lance was on the field.

Now, it's strictly Lance is on the field, Debo's on the field. Now, strictly, Lance is on the field. Debo's on the field. There were 140 such snaps last year. Debo got targeted 30% of the time. He had 14 targets for seven catches, 170 yards, and three touchdowns. I have a big problem with it because Kittle missed one of those games, so that may have increased his target per outrun.

And there was that, I think it was a 75-yard touchdown that was actually a pretty crappy pass. He was just wide open on busted coverage. But then there was a deep touchdown that lands through to Debo that I think, as I recall, wasn't a bad pass, and it was a legit great play. Can I just, a quick word on Kittle? 9.1% target per route run rate over 99 snaps.

Yeah, wow. Four targets, one catch. Wow. That's not good. The other problem is, even if Debo had a 30% target share, if Lance throws 26 passes a game like he did in his two starts last year, it's still only 7.8 targets per game. That's not a bad number.

It might not be a number worthy of being a late second round pick but i'm okay with 7.8 targets per game so that's and and you know what i can look to see exactly how many snaps targets etc they had when all three were on the field so you said 7.8 targets per game for Debo? That's 130 over a 17-game season. Yeah. 132.6. Compared to a 30% target share, it's much different. Especially if he's going to get rushes on top of it. Well, look, if you told me 130 targets, which is what we're kind of hoping,

not hoping, which we're saying CeeDee Lamb would be a little unusual for Dak Prescott, but you're saying maybe 130 for Lamb, who would you take if they were both getting the same amount of targets, Lamb or Debo? Sure. If I knew for sure they were going to get

the same amount of targets, I think I'd take Debo. I have Lamb projected for 22 more targets than Debo. And I have Debo one spot ahead of Lamb. Adam, there were 88 snaps where Debo Samuel played with Kittle and Trey Lance. Oh, okay. Here we go. Want to know his target per outrun rate?

Yeah. 29.8%. What about Kittle? Oh, I guess it was... What about Kittle? 9.5. I think that's... So we're not for Kittle.

Schneier was talking about that, how the tight ends don't really get used. He was saying this a year ago when we thought Lance was going to be the quarterback, how the tight end would not be used in that type of scheme. And it never got to play out, really. But I'd like to get his reaction to that. I think he might be on the show tomorrow.

Okay, anything you guys want to say on Mike Evans? What is his upside? If Godwin starts the year on pup number one wide receiver in NFL number one fantasy receiver. I don't know if he's like going to be the, you know, Devante Adams ask, but lots of targets.

We already know where he stands in Brady's mind when they get near the goal line. I expect that to continue. Defenses have not figured out a way to really slow that down. Although maybe they might because there's no more Gronk and there might not be Godwin. That's going to be interesting because teams might be much more open to double teaming Evans if there are only other targets that Brady has or a running back, Russell Gage, Cameron Brate, Tyler Johnson.

I don't know who that next receiver would be. I know, but Dave, I look at those two playoff games. No Godwin. He faced Darius Slay. He faced Jalen Ramsey. He had 28 catches, 440 yards. No, sorry, sorry. No, that was including the...

He had 17 catches. He had 236 yards and two touchdowns on 26 targets. He had 117... 118 yards per game. Yeah, he had 117 in one game. He had 119 the other game. He caught a touchdown in both against tough cornerbacks. Not all of it was against those cornerbacks. He just got peppered with targets.

26 targets in two games. Yeah, you're going to see that this year. That's what makes him appealing, and he's got a. He just got peppered with targets. 26 targets in two games. Yeah. You're going to see that this year. That's what makes him appealing, and he's got a great track record to go along with it. 1,000 yards every single season. I think 70 catches almost every year, if not every year, and a bunch of years with double-digit touchdowns.

Okay. That is Mike Evans. Let me read some Apple Podcast questions here. We definitely need to talk more about Tyreek Hill at some point. We will. He did not make the top eight. He's not far from it, though. Apple Podcast questions.

This one comes from Alessandro in Sydney. Dear Patty, Matisse, Ben, and Josh. Are those former Sixers? Or is Matisse still a Sixer? It seems like you're right here. I had no idea. Do you know the NBA draft is tonight? Are you aware of this?

Have you seen this? I am aware of it. I didn't know until my son told me yesterday. I would think a Knicks fan would be all over that. We're not going to do anything special. You know, I was thinking about this yesterday. I think about Heath a lot more than I should. That's weird.

A few years ago, the Knicks drafted Kevin Knox. Somewhere, I think they have, I don't even know, they have like the 11th pick or something. Knox was somewhere in that range. And I was really excited about it. I knew nothing about Kevin Knox, but I liked his body type. You know, he seemed like tall, wing, built, kind of player that really thrives in the

nba kind of guy you think about more than you should yeah and then i remember heath saying that his son who was i don't know like eight years old at the time or something really liked kevin docks and i was like oh yeah that means so much these young kids know so much about sports this has to be a good pick. And no, it wasn't at all. All right, so the question from Alessandra is, what's your opinion of trading down in dynasty startups or in redraft? I found myself trading down in every draft

I'd done this season. I feel like I'm building some amazing teams. All of my leagues are two quarterback leagues or super flex leagues. So I've been trading my first round pick for a two and a three, and I just let everyone else take the top QBbs and i seem to wind up having an extra stud wide receiver running back blah blah blah when you can trade your one for a two and a three

of course that's brilliant yeah those are not the types of trades i would expect to get for a first round pick that's a haul yeah i would just clarify you should not do that in rookie dress oh no no no that's right. Thank you, Pete. This is Colton from a small town in southern Ontario. Is Windsor small enough? No. That's the only town that I know besides Toronto and Ontario. Okay, so...

Southern Ontario, anyway. He says he's in a 12-team PPR Keeper League where I can keep three players each year, giving up one round earlier than where they were drafted. DK Metcalf, Dak Prescott, and Kareem Hunt were my keepers last year. This year's a lot harder decision. What do you guys think?

I can keep Prescott in the 14th, Metcalf in the 11th, and Kareem Hunt in the 6th, Metcalf in the 11th, and Kareem Hunt in the 6th, or Mike Williams in the 8th, Jamar Chase in the 4th, yes, Javante Williams in the 3rd. Yes. Dalton,

there's better value than that. Dalton Schultz in the 15th. Dalton Schultz in the 15th, Dallas Goddard in the 15th. So he can keep three. All right, so let me read it again. Sorry. I'll try to do it in order by round. Jamar Chase in the 4th. Oh, Javante Williams in the 15th. So you can keep three. All right, so let me read it again. Sorry. I'll try to do it in order by round.

Jamar Chase in the fourth. Oh, Javante Williams in the third. Jamar Chase in the fourth. So Chase is on. We got one. Yeah, that's for sure. Kareem Hunt in the sixth. Mike Williams in the eighth.

Metcalf in the 11th. Dak in the 14th. Schultz in the 15th. Goddard in the 15th. Pick three. My first question is this. Javante Williams is maybe fair value in round three this year. If he has a good year,

he's probably a top five pick in fantasy drafts in 2023. So if you keep him at a three this year, he would cost you a two next year. But I have a question for you, Dave. Go ahead, Heath. How long can he keep these guys? I'm assuming he can keep them until they're no longer...

until they get to the first round, basically. Because how can you keep a first rounder if you've got to give up a pick one year or one round higher? I don't know. That's my assumption. I would keep Jamar Chase, DK Metcalf, and Dalton Schultz. It's hard to throw back DK.

And the value for Schultz is really great. So I would agree on DK. I would agree on Chase. And then if you're a believer of Javante Williams, I think you keep him. And if not, Schultz is the guy. I would keep Chase, williams and dk i thought you were going to say that from jc in branson missouri tell me about branson missouri

heath uh it is like you would not believe it it is an unbelievable magical place with um go-karts and lots and lots of shows like dinner theater type shows um there's some beautiful scenery around as well very close to uh lakes and little miniature mountains it's a very hilly or mountainy area depending on where you're from um it's really a beautiful place and uh that's that's probably a lot of bad traffic. Some of the worst traffic in Missouri. All right. Better pizza, Branson, Missouri, or Manhattan, New York. Well, I've never had pizza as bad as I had in Manhattan.

So I'm going to go with Branson. I swear all the things that he and I have ever argued about. That makes me the craziest. Just so mad about that. It's my fault. Ten-team Superflex half PPR league. We get to keep two keepers for a maximum of two years. QBs are mostly kept or gone after round two.

It is Superflex. Should I exercise my two-year option on Antonio Gibson in the seventh round or throw him back? And secondly, should I keep Kyler in round one, Justin Jefferson in round three, Michael Thomas in round 12, Naeem Hines in round 16, or Darnell Mooney in round 19?

What do you think about Gibson in the seventh in a half PPR super flex 10-te team league? That's good. I'd rather have Jefferson around three though, for sure. Sure. Sure. Right.

But he asked two separate questions. So I don't know if one is independent of the other. It's really not that great a value though. In a 10 team league, it's a top 70 pick when you throw in how many quarterbacks are going to be in there. You know, maybe,

maybe 15. I still think it's good. He might go one to two rounds higher. I would like to know what pick he has. Because if he's got 10, 11, 12, then I'd probably keep Kyler and Jefferson. Yeah. Okay.

From Angry PD Pablo. Dear Troy, Tony. Why are you so angry, PD Pablo? I don't know. Dear Troy, Tony, Roger, and Danny. Cowboys quarterbacks. I'm in a Superflex PBR Dynasty League. I've been offered Deshaun Watson, Christian Watson,

Gus Edwards, and Cortland Sutton. All right, so he'd be getting in a Superflex League Dynasty. Deshaun Watson, Christian Watson, Gus Edwards, and Cortland Sutton. He would give up Jameis Winston, CeeDee Lamb, and Cole Komet. He still has Aaron Rodgers and Trevor Lawrence. Would you do this trade? He has Travis Kelsey, so he doesn't need Komet. What do you think?

I was going to let Dave answer first while I tried to work some trade chart magic. I would accept the deal. I think the downgrade from Lamb to Sutton is worth whatever upside Deshaun has whenever he gets back on the field plus Christian Watson. Gus Edwards is not a factor in the deal. I don't look at Cole Komet or Jameis Winston as excellent long-term options. Lamb is the best player in the trade. I think you're getting good

enough in exchange yeah i would prefer just barely the lamb side um i'm i'm really worried about watson yeah yeah i'm just gonna go up and down and up and down with no real reason probably but oh i'm down until there's a reason to go up, but I don't think he's going to be banned from the NFL forever. Dave, did you finish Stranger Things? No, one episode to go. Oh, all right. Carve out some time.

I need to give you a public apology for making fun of you over Stranger Things over the years. Did you make fun of me? Oh, no, no. Never mind. I don't remember. It's so good. I said on the show the other day, it's one of my, I think it's my third favorite show of all time. Is that good? I haven't really thought about it, but it's definitely one of my favorites. It's so good. It's just so fun.

I always judge whatever I'm watching, whether it's a movie or a tv show on how likely am i to watch this again someday and i would a hundred percent re-watch the entire stranger things series i actually don't feel that way about stranger things but i just love i get so excited to watch it that's how i judge it yeah i'm pumped up that's part of it too, right? The anticipation for watching it. Yeah. That's how I felt about Obi-Wan.

And I thought Obi-Wan delivered. I have to apologize for making fun of you for liking Star Wars for all those years. You know, we're having a nice little moment here. Dave was saying that because he changed his mind. Have you actually changed your mind about Star Wars? I never thought negatively of Star Wars. I just had never really seen it.

I did watch all three movies recently. The first three. The original three. Yeah, they're good. I actually like... I actually like... Sorry. Technolision. I like the original one better than

Empire Strikes Back. New Hope is my favorite. Hope is great. All right, guys. Thanks. Have a good day, everybody. We will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.