Fantasy Football Today - Top 5 WRs! Is Tyreek Hill #1? #5? Both!? (06/23 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 23, 2021

Chris and Dave have a decent amount of differences in their WR rankings, especially factoring in non-PPR vs. PPR. Much of it starts with Tyreek HIll (4:40). Find out how we're evaluating him in different formats as we debate Davante Adams vs. Hill ... Which elite WR has the most upside (11:30)? Which elite WR has the most downside (13:40)? Could A.J. Brown be a bust? Are any of these guys too old? ... The guys reveal their boldest ranking in their Top 5 (23:45). Chris really, really likes A.J. Brown in non-PPR leagues! Then we reveal our rankings 1-5 (34:10) and debate DeAndre Hopkins vs. Stefon Diggs (41:30) and much more ... Your emails at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Okay, so last year, let's take a look at where the, some of the top wide receivers finished, okay? The top four wide receivers in 2019 were Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, and Cooper Cupp. That was in PPR.

Where did they finish in 2020? Michael Thomas was 93rd. Chris Godwin was 31st. Julio Jones was 52nd. And Cooper Cup, the winner, wide receiver 26th. So, yeah, that was not a great repeat. Not to say those guys were ranked top four, but it was obviously kind of a wacky year with some of the very good, very high-end wide receivers.

Welcome to the show, the Wednesday edition of Fantasy Football Today. Adam Azer with Dave Richard, and a big welcome, welcome back to Chris Towers. What's up? I made that reference on the baseball podcast the other day, so it's a good week for the Welcome Back Cotter theme song. It's timely. Welcome back. I love

it in the Applebee's commercial. You know? It just makes me want to eat dinner with friends in my neighborhood. Does it make you want to get a quesadilla burger? Is that what they have there? I believe they do. I got one once, but it was like a decade ago.

I don't think I've been to an Applebee's since high school. They're really not bad. They're actually quite good. I'll tell you. I'll take your word for it. Look, I mean, I'm a big Chili's fan, so I'm not going to act like I'm some kind of snob. Oh, I love Chili's.

Love Chili's. Chili's is great. It is so good. Chili's should sponsor the show. I think that's what we're trying. Hey, wink, wink, Chili's. Okay, anyway, if we get into the wide receivers here, I bet you Schrager's never eaten at Chili's.

I bet he has. Yeah, and they have very good drinks, like very good drinks. mean the two for one drinks at the bar when when we were in college that was a uh that was a hit okay guys how easy or difficult was it to put together to rank your top five wide receivers it wasn't hard it wasn't all right it was especially easy to like it was easier to like put together a list of i would say probably the top seven and then narrow it down from there to the top five but i i did not spend i did not need to spend a lot of time especially after the julio

trade you know pinpointing exactly where i want each pass catcher. Yeah. I have, uh, I think a pretty clear top four and then a pretty clear top seven, but I think there might be some differentiation between mine and, uh, Dave and everyone else's lists, but yeah, it wasn't that hard. I think the top guys kind of stand out. I think everybody knows who the top guys are. Maybe, maybe like like you know the the fantasy manager that doesn't take it seriously the fantasy manager that isn't even listening to this podcast right now they might not be up to speed on aj brown being a top seven receiver at

least i think he's a top seven receiver same um and i i think they'd be on to justin jefferson being up there, but I'm not 100% sure. There might be like 10% of that group of mindless souls whose money we're going to take this year that might not put Justin Jefferson up there, but that's okay. That's why we're doing this now for everybody else. Yeah, I think you got to throw Keenan Allen in there to be...

I don't think he has wide receiver one upside, but he certainly has top five upside in specifically PPR. He's going to be a target hog and... Upside for sure. Yeah. I don't actually rank him that high. He's outside my top 12, but yeah, the upside's there, especially with all the talk coming out of Chargers minicamp

about how they're going to be running a variation of the Saints' offense. And him in that Michael Thomas role could be awesome. Yeah, PPR per game last four seasons. Keenan Allen's been 4th, 12th, 8th, and 6th. So never higher than 4th, never lower than 12th in the last four seasons. All right, so that wasn't that difficult for you. I assume the consensus top five is certainly going to include Adams, Tyreek Hill, Stefan Diggs, and DeAndre Hopkins.

And then who's going to be the other guy? Is it going to be Michael Thomas? Is it going to be Calvin Ridley? Are people going to fall in love with Justin Jefferson? We'll see. Okay, should Tyreek Hill, my next question, should Tyreek Hill be the number two wide receiver in PPR leagues? That's where I have him.

That's where he finished last year in PPR points per game. 21.1 PPR points per game last year. Super consistent. He scored a touchdown in 11 of his 15 regular season games. He was outstanding. It's a little tough to commit to him as the number one guy, so long as Devontae Adams remains the number one target of Aaron Rodgers. No, yeah.

I'm going to say number two. If that remains the case, then I got to keep Tyreek Hill where he is in PPR. Different story in non-PPR. But to me, I'm betting on Tyreek Hill. Not only are you betting on one of the fastest players in the National Football League and one of the most aggressive offenses in the National Football League, but a guy who's catching passes from the best quarterback in the National Football League. And what you're alluding to, though, is that you actually have Tyreek Hill number one in non-PPR,

right? Right. But not in half or full. I'll still take adams there uh again with the caveat that aaron rogers is his quarterback and not jordan love please not ever jordan love yeah i mean what do you think about that chris first first making tyree killed wide receiver one in non-ppr uh he's number three for me in non-ppr it's it's really difficult right now because there is so much that is up in the air with devonta adams value on the other hand he was really really good with deshaun kaiser back in was that 2017 yeah uh it was but it wasn't anywhere near it was brett hunley brett hunley that's who it was yeah yeah he was k He was. Yeah, it was Hundley. We get those guys confused sometimes.

Bus quarterback. He wasn't anywhere near this, but it's not like he was much worse in 2017, and that was before his real breakout. It's not like he was so much worse than Tyreek Hill was in 2019. Obviously, he was dealing with injuries. Yeah, that's different.

I think all of these guys have high floors in pretty much any situation. I don't think Devontae Adams is going to stop being a number one wide receiver because Aaron Rodgers isn't there. Well, a number one or the number one. A number one. Right. He was on pace for 92 catches, 1,086 yards, and 10

touchdowns with Brett Hundley. That was in eight games. And that was with Hundley being horrible. Hundley was on pace for just over 3,000 yards and 16 touchdowns. So, pathetic. But no, but I think it's, I mean, why, Dave, why would you take Tyreek Hill over Devontae Adams

in a non-PPR league? Just because I think that Adams' touchdowns, I don't think he can score quite as many this year as he did last year. I think Tyreek has a little bit more upside in yardage. Certainly he's got the potential to do it just because of yards after catch. They could be close in touchdowns. I'll take the upside in yardage. Certainly he's got the potential to do it just because of yards after catch. They can be close in touchdowns.

I'll take the upside play. Okay. Yeah. He had, he had 18 touchdowns. He'll had 17 touchdowns, 15 receiving two rushing. And he'll have,

I think Adams is a safer bet for touchdowns than hell actually. Yeah. Well, okay. Okay. Go on. And then let's talk about that because Tyler Keel had crazy touchdown luck last year. He had like 40% of his team's receiving touchdowns.

That's not necessarily true if Aaron Rodgers isn't the quarterback, obviously, so we have to caveat that, but assuming Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback, Adams, his target share is so high. I mean, I think he was 33% or something. He was the highest in the NFL by far. Aaron Rodgers peppers him with targets in a way that just isn't true for Tyreek Hill

in the Chiefs offense. And so that's always going to lead to more touchdowns just because he has more opportunities for it. Tyreek Hill's big playability does give him more touchdown potential than any other guy in the 130 to 140 target range because he's a touchdown threat every time he touches the ball. But what we've seen in his career is it's not like he's necessarily been the super high touchdown rate guy every single season.

Last year, even taking away the two rushing touchdowns, which I think we can all agree that there's a lot of luck involved in that. But 15 touchdowns on 135 targets. He had 7 on 89 in 2019. He had 12 on 137 last season. So this was the first time in Tyreek Hill's career where he's had a 10% touchdown rate or higher. So I just think that last year was more of an outlier for

him in terms of touchdowns than it was for Devontae Adams who has had four double-digit touchdown seasons before. But Tyreek Hill has two in his last three, and that was when Mahomes was healthy, and he was healthy.

We all expect double-digit touchdowns from both of them, right? Yes, but I have Devontae Adams with the highest touchdown projection. I expect double... We both... We all expect double-digit touchdowns from both of them, right? Yes, but I have Devontae Adams with the highest touchdown projection. I think Hill is... Hill's still third. So I'm not exactly saying Tyreek Hill is not going to score a lot of touchdowns.

Okay. All right. So that's an interesting debate. And I think for the sake of this show, we should probably just treat it as if Aaron Rogers is going to be the quarterback in week one for the green. I think that's how you have to treat it just in general. I think if the Packers were hell bent on trading him,

they've had two huge moments where they could have done it. They could have done it on draft night. They didn't do it. They could have done it right after June 1st. So why would they wait to trade him now in case of an injury or something? Like, I don't know what would be holding them back. Maybe it's not on them at this point.

It could be on Rogers. If he's actually going to show up, maybe he's not getting traded, but is he going to show up? Maybe there's something to that, but I think the Packers front office thinks that they're going to keep him. Okay. Well,

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podcast reviews are welcome. Please leave a five-star review on Apple Podcast with a question, and we will answer it on our Friday show, along with your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That is the letter I, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That is the letter I. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. Looking at some wide receivers here. For quarterback, I framed

it as other than Mahomes. And for running back, I framed it as other than Cook and McCaffrey. But I'm not going to do that here. I'm just going to ask you, who has the most upside at wide receiver? I still think it's probably Devontae Adams. I don't know if I can pick one guy

that can for sure do it, but if you had to think about which receiver had the potential for the most targets, Adams would be up there, Ridley would be up there, Diggs would be up there. I think Adams is probably the safest play to say that he's got

the most upside tyreek's got upside too i just don't think he's got the most the upside to catch the most targets or see the most targets i should say yeah yeah ridley's a ridley's a really good call that that was probably an oversight for me because he did lead the nfl in air yards last season um he showed he could still be successful without julio jones last season even with matt ryan struggling um the question for me is like does he have that 160 170 you know 10 targets per game or more upside i would think he does without uh julio jones but i'm not 100 sure whereas we have seen that from cal or from davante. Whereas we have seen that from Devante Adams. We have seen that from Michael Thomas in particular, those two guys.

Michael Thomas, he had a 1,700-yard, 150-catch season two years ago. Obviously, the QB situation is different, but I still think he's in that discussion. Julio leaving behind 7.55 targets per game in Atlanta. Yeah. No, that's got to be more than that. That's what it is. He had the two that he didn't really play.

Right, right, right. I'm including those games. So if you take that out and you do 68 divided by seven, then you're looking at about 10 per game. Right. And just one, like here's just an important stat to know about Devante Adams. He's been on pace for 111 or more catches,

three straight years. Bam right there. I mean, that's, that's wild. Um, okay. I don't think Tyree can touch that.

That's why Adams remains number one. Who has the most downside, most downside among these elite wide receivers? Uh, Brandon cooks. No, nothing. You want the elite wide receivers how are we defining it yeah if

it's if it's the top that top seven or eight i think it's oh it's gonna hurt to say it i mean adams if aaron rogers doesn't play but i still think he's gonna be really good um hopkins you know the one interesting thing about this elite wide receiver group is it's mostly older guys, you know, wide receivers tend to peak at 28. And then there's like a two year, very steady decline phase. And once you hit 31 wide receivers as a population, that's the year that they tend to really fall off. But 28, 27, 28 is typically the best year of a wide receiver's career.

Devonta Adams is 28. I believe Michael Thomas is 27. Stephon Diggs is 27. DeAndre Hopkins is 28 or 29. I think he's going to be 29. So it's a really interesting place because I think we're probably looking at this next year, and of the Adams, D, Adams digs Hopkins Hill group.

We're probably looking at one or two of them having a fall off season. And it's just a question of which one it is. Yeah. So what's the, what's the, what's the answer? Who's got the most, uh,

by the way, I think the elite wide receivers can play very well, well into their 30s, so I'm not worried about a 29 year old, personally. I think Chris may have it wrong. I don't think you're talking about it like they turn 31 and then their legs fall off, but they're steady decline, like you said.

Who's 31? Nobody in this group is. They're 28, 29, 27 through 29. So we're good. So it's like, there's a couple of young ones in here too.

Yeah, we're good. I think it's more like what we've seen from Adam Thiel in the last couple of seasons. Where he can still be really good. Prop him up. Right. Yeah.

Right. And that's just a nuanced receiver who, like, is a terrific route runner, doesn't command double coverage very often, gets schemed open. Like, that's kind of what you need when you're an old guy.

You need, like, you know, a walker. Who's got the most downside, guys? Give me an answer. Let me give you the case for A.J. Brown, which it hurts me to do because I think he's a phenomenal talent, but he's not in line for 150 targets so long as Julio Jones is healthy. If Julio Jones plays the majority of the season, that'll hurt his target volume. This is still a team that wants to run the football a lot with Derrick Henry.

This is a team that will probably try and cultivate some other talent behind Julio and A.J. Brown. Those two aren't going to get every single pass target from Ryan Tannehill. I think there is some downside for A. for AJ Brown based on his ADP. I really love Calvin Ridley. I'll just make the case for downside for Calvin Ridley having the most downside. We haven't really seen a lot of him as a number one. And when he was the number one last year without Julio Jones, he had a lot of targets, 10 per game. He had a lot of yards. He had a very, very low touchdown rate, which you would say, whatever, a small sample, but that's what happened to Julio Jones year after year.

And I don't know. I mean, the Falcons could be really bad offensively now, and they have, they might have a really bad running game and they have an aging quarterback and there's really no help for Calvin Ridley unless we just expect Kyle Pitts to be great. So I don't believe this. I think Ridley is in the conversation as wide receiver three. Ultimately, I think I'd settle on him as wide receiver five. I can't quite justify him over Diggs or Hopkins, but I can make the case that there's unknown, there's uncertainty there. We haven't seen it from Ridley, so that's the case.

I'll make a case for one that might be super unpopular, but DK Metcalf. Oh, I don't think he's part of the discussion. If we're including him among that elite group of wide receivers. I wasn't, but I'm happy to hear this. Go ahead. It's mostly just that among the elite or second-tier elite wide receivers,

he's probably the most touchdown dependent of that group and the most big play dependent of that group. It helps having Russell Wilson. But we saw in the second half of last season he was not an elite wide receiver after he really looked like he made that leap in the first half he only had two touchdowns in his final eight games was only on pace for 80 catches 1030 yards 13 yards per reception now came back in the playoffs and had two touchdown, 96 yard, five catch game. Yeah. But he's the kind of guy against the Rams where, yeah, where if he doesn't have that

40 yard touchdown, he can be disappointing on a week to week basis. Now, yeah, I love having him on my team because there are going to be weeks where he hits two of the 40-yard touchdowns, and he's going to help carry you to a win. But if you're looking for a guy in the top 10 group, let's say, who could have a disappointing season that's not related to injury, that's not related to QB, I think Metcalf is probably the guy, and we saw a little bit of that in the second half last season. And I'm really interested to see

in the new system that's going to emphasize shorter throws and getting the ball out of Russell Wilson's hands. Is that a bad fit for Metcalf? At least have to ask that question. He's got to dominate after the catch, which was part of his secret sauce in the first eight games of last season.

Almost six yards after catch, or yards after contact per catch in the first eight games. And that fell to 3.3 in the second half his target volume was almost the same it was down a little bit maybe one target per game from the first eight to the second eight he just wasn't getting as many touchdowns i don't have the numbers on like end zone targets or red zone opportunities from you know the splits here but obviously that offense took a big turn in the second half of last season.

Russ was throwing five fewer passes per game. They weren't comfortable with the way defenses were playing them. I think it does come down to just how they reconfigure this offense and try and beat the cover to shell. By the way, I want to just go back to Tyree kill. We keep talking about Tyree kill, not going to get the same amount of targets as these other guys. And,

and I don't, I don't think anyone's going to care about this. I'm just going to tell you anyway, I've told you this before. Uh, it's been, it's been a pretty big sample of games without Sammy Watkins over the last three years.

In 2018, he averaged in seven games without Watkins, um, 9.6 targets per game for Tyreek Hill. He played one game in 2019 without Watkins. He had 10 targets. And in 2020, in five games without Sammy Watkins, not including Week 17 when Mahomes didn't play, 10 targets per game.

So that is 13 games over the last three seasons without Watkins and with Mahomes, and he's averaged 10 targets per game. They probably should do that. They should. And if they did, he might be the number one wide receiver in fantasy. And let me follow up on that

because they did do that after the first six games of the season. And this is when they traded for Le'Veon Bell, and it really had nothing to do with Le'Veon Bell, but they just changed their offense, and they said, we're going to stop running the ball. We're going to just throw. And I'm trying to find the numbers now,

but at that point, Mahomes, from the last nine games for Tyreek Hill, from week seven on, Mahomes threw like 40 times a game, and Hill was on pace for, I think he was averaging more than 10 targets per game and his numbers were ridiculous. So it might happen. Not going to be good news for Clyde Edwards Z layer if that happens

but yeah, if I projected Tyreek Hill for 10 targets per game, he would probably be wide receiver one or two and even even if you don't project him for 10, he averaged nine overall last year. He was at 8.6 in 2018, which was Mahomes' big breakout year. 2019, when Mahomes got hurt, he was at 7.4 targets per game. So he's always had good to great target share. I don't know if we should even, I can live with nine i can live with 8.6 per game from him

yeah because i know he's got these big plays that you know he will unfurl every few every few catches honestly it's not necessarily every few games all right yeah it's it's just that question of whether he has the 120 catch upside all right so so let me give you the numbers. That's a lot different, right? So the last nine games, his 16-game pace in those nine games, 110 catches, 1,586 yards, 20 touchdowns on 172 targets. Yeah, let's project him for exactly that.

Yeah, if he can be, yeah, if he's 110 catches, and was that including playoffs exactly that. Yeah. If he can be, yeah. If he's 110 catches and it was that including playoffs. No, no. Cause he, he was absurd and he had 10, 10 or 11 targets in each playoff game. He had 355 yards in, in three games too.

So yeah, he's pretty good. If he does that, he, he, he might be your number one overall pick in fantasy. If we could just pencil that in now, let's make sure that that happens.

And remember, Ben Gretsch talked about this on our Tuesday night live stream a week ago. He said a lot of receivers, they get those pop passes. Those are free PPR points. Tyreek gets those, and he gets those in the red zone. Yes, he does. He gets those inside the five. The Chiefs have started to figure out and get creative with how to combat the tight space that defenses have the luxury of having when you're inside the five-yard line. And instead of

smashing it between the A and B gaps, they can get creative with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey. They'll benefit. That's what helped boost up those targets last year. Okay. So that was a lot on Tyreek Hill. And I think he's really interesting because I do wonder if people would have the, I wouldn't say guts, but if people would actually take him lower than wide receiver two and a full PPR league,

you can make the case, but you have to think about the touchdowns. Mahomes is just probably going to throw a lot more touchdowns than Kyler Murray, you know, than Matt Ryan. All right. But that brings us to

what is your boldest rankings call? And Chris, tell me where you have Tyreek Hill. Just give me your PPR rankings because they're pretty damn bold. Yeah, I have Devonta Adams, number one, Michael Thomas, number two, Stefan Diggs, number three, DeAndre Hopkins, four,

and Tyreek Hill, five. And that's PPR. And non-PPR, it's actually Devonta Adams, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill,, and that's PPR. Non-PPR, it's actually Devontae Adams, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, Stephon Dix. You put A.J. Brown ahead of Tyreek Hill? They're projected for very, very similar numbers. Who cares? You cannot

do that, Chris Dallas. Wait a minute. Why not? I think he deserves the floor to explain his rationale. I'm intrigued. I talked about how only once in his career has Tyreek Hill had a 10% touchdown rate per target. So, you know, touchdown rate. AJ Brown's done that twice in two seasons. He's got 190 targets and 19 touchdowns. So I don't know if you can set that as his baseline and I'm not doing that, but I do have him for the highest touchdown rate of any wide receiver in football because,

one, he's established himself as an elite touchdown player, and two, he's got Julio Jones on the other side of the field now. He's playing with a very efficient quarterback, and he's playing with a wide receiver who consistently throughout his career has drawn the kind of defensive attention in the red zone that has allowed the other players playing with him to rack up really high touchdown rates. People knock Julio Jones for not scoring touchdowns, but that has never actually impacted his team negatively. Julio Jones, it's not like Julio Jones teams have like marched down the field and then

stalled out in the red zone a ton. He just he's such a dominant force. The defenses have to put the defensive attention on him. And that allows Calvin Ridley to have nine touchdowns as a rookie. You know, it's that's what's happening. So I think the combination of everything I actually did move A.J. Brown up one spot after the Julio Jones trade. You legitimately like you. You legitimately if you one spot after the Julio Jones trade. You legitimately have him second.

You legitimately, if you're doing a non-PPR draft tonight, you're totally taking A.J. Brown ahead of Tyreek Hill. Yeah. I understand that your projections came out that way, and it all makes sense mathematically, but Tyreek Hill has been a top two wide receiver in two of the last three seasons in non-PPR. And Mahomes, I mean, he's going to,

it's Mahomes, it's Kelsey, it's Tyreek Hill. What else does he have to contend with? You know, I mean, the pass volume is going to be so much higher. This is, none of it's, and we're talking about a gap of, in a PPR league, one and a half projected points. So I can't say it's like slam dunk A.J. Brown. For me, it's

I'm never actually really going to have that decision because someone's probably going to take Tyreek Hill before I do. Yeah, but you could have the eighth pick in the draft and you could want a wide receiver or you could have the twelfth pick and you could want a wide receiver and everybody but Devontae Adams is still there.

I think in a non-PPR league, it's probably a non-issue. It hasn't come up yet, I will say. Okay. Yeah, the only thing I would say, and I love the rationale for A.J. Brown. I don't know if it'll come to fruition. And maybe it will. Maybe he will get 12 touchdowns, but maybe only like, uh, like a thousand yards with it, like a thousand on the nose.

Uh, I just, I think you don't have to do it. I think you can still take Tyree kill. You can like AJ Brown more than Tyree kill, but you can, you know, no,

I don't agree with you because if you, if you have, you should expect Tyree kill to go ahead of AJ. If you have the 12th pick, Dave, you're not getting it. You're not getting AJ Brown 36th. So if you want AJ Brown, you got to take him there.

Sure. Yeah, of course. And you're not going to because you're going to take Tyreek Hill. Unless you truly believe, like Chris believes, that A.J. Brown is going to outproduce Tyreek Hill in non-PPR. Like I said, the gap between those two guys is basically non-existent. Well, it should be bigger. I think Devontae Adams is the clear number one in every format,

as long as Aaron Rodgers plays. After that, we're talking about tiny, tiny differences between most of the guys in the top seven. So if you want to make the case that I'm too low on Terry Kill, well, I've got him projected for 94 catches, 1,400 yards, and 11 touchdowns.

I've just got... Basically, it just, I have AJ Brown for a slight, basically very similar numbers, slightly fewer catches, more touchdowns. If you think that it should be even touchdowns, then the edge goes to Tyree kill. Yeah. I mean, look, his touchdown rate is going to be higher than Tyree kills maybe, but I'm thinking a lot more touchdown passes for at least 10 more touchdown passes for Mahomes than Tannehill. Yeah. All right, so that's your boldest call.

You also have Michael Thomas. You said second in PPR. We know that. Dave, how about you? What's your boldest call? I don't really have a bold call. I'm pretty much going with the flow when it comes to these receivers.

It feels like maybe having Justin Jefferson sixth could be a bold call. Just having him ahead of A.J. Brown, putting him in the elite tier of fantasy wide receivers. But I loved what he did last year in spite of very, very few red zone targets. And I just can't help myself but believe that he's going to get more red zone targets. He was so outstanding everywhere else on the field. I think that Justin Jefferson actually has room to be a little better than he was last year. Okay. All right, then let's take a quick break and we'll really go through the rankings because you're just listening to this. You're not seeing anything on paper. You might not know who's ranked where in full PPR and non-PPR. So we'll put it out there

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damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, I want to remind everybody to email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That is the letter I, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We're getting a ton of emails these days, which is great. Very excited about that. That means we're not going to be able to read all of them on the show. I will reply to some of them independently and we'll read some on our Friday mailbag. But unfortunately, a lot of the emails

are just going to probably not get answered. But please email, keep emailing and see if you can get on the show because we appreciate the content. I like to answer some on the ff today newsletter as well so good i'll try to answer some of those too cbssports.com slash newsletters is it i always forget singular or plural i gotta change something that i said by the way before the break i said that jefferson didn't have very many red zone targets he only had eight targets inside the 10

that's what i should have said no he didn't have that many red zone targets. That's I know. But like the stat that gets me is that Justin Jefferson only had eight targets inside the 10 last year. That's got to go up. Feeling 13 of his 14 touchdowns last year were in the red zone. 10 of them were inside the 10, seven of them were inside the five. So yeah,

feeling almost had as many touchdowns inside the five as Jefferson had targets inside the 10. That's got to even out. Yeah. And Jefferson only had 10 red zone targets. That also seems like an argument against Adam Thielen. Yes. Oh, yeah.

I don't even know what his... I don't even know where people are taking him. Is he in that round four mix? I know where people are taking him. He seems in that round four mix? I know where people are taking him. He's supposed to go two rounds higher than I have him rank. I'll look up his ADP in the NFC right now. Yeah, I know where he's going, but I know that I never take him. Okay, anyway, so let's do it.

Let's go one through five. Let's go full PPR. And Chris, what do you got? Full PPR, one through five. And Adam, just do you got? Full PPR one through five. And Adam, just to let you know, I did knock off 0.3 touchdowns from A.J. Brown's projections. So now he is number three in non-PPR just for you. Good.

Wow. But look, it's not even about the projections because your projections always make sense. It's just about like how, but it's just, I can't stomach the thought of putting tyreek hill behind aj brown it just doesn't make any sense to me you know you don't have to do it though like that's the beautiful thing about all this is that everybody was just treated to somebody else's opinion that that's rare because i mean how many fantasy analysts are there in the

world a ton 90 percent of them are gonna have tyreek hill out of aj brown and here's one that because I mean, how many fantasy analysts are there in the world? A ton. 90% of them are going to have Tyree Kill out of AJ Brown and here's one that doesn't. And now we understand why. And you know what? It's actually not a bad argument. No, you're right. It is a good argument.

I wouldn't have the guts to do that even if my projections said AJ Brown was going to be better than Tyree Kill. Well, then you should not project players. You're a coward. I am. Well, I play it safe, but I don't think Tyree Kill. Then you should not project players. You're a coward. I am. I play it safe, but I don't think

Tyree Kill is playing it safe. I don't think... This is the problem with any rankings debate. I specifically made a point not to make any kind of argument against Tyree Kill because that would be a stupid thing to do.

I don't think I'm a stupid person. Tyree kill is amazing. He's one of the best players in the NFL. He's, you know, he's the guy that every draft there's four guys who are like, this guy could be the Tyree kill of this offense. And it's like,

he's not going to be, there's one Tyree kill ever. Yeah. So like, that's not, it's just, I also think AJ Brown is that kind of talent. Yeah, he's terrific.

Okay, Dave, sorry. Oh no, Chris, you first. Your top five in full PPR. Devontae Adams, Michael Thomas, Stefan Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill. And I think that's more or less, you know, Calvin Ridley's right in that group. And then after that, I think there's a little drop okay but thomas too so adams thomas went digs hopkins digs hopkins hill okay dave yeah i'm taking an nfa approach to my ppr receiver rankings it's adams one hill two digs three ridley four new copkins five adam theolin's nfc adp in june by the way is 55th Hill 2, Diggs 3, Ridley 4, New Hopkins 5. Adam Thielen's NFC

ADP in June, by the way, is 55th overall, so he's a round 5 pick. Yeah. Yeah. Wide receiver 20. Yep. You do have the same names. No, you don't have the same names. We do not. Sorry. Dave, you do not have Michael Thomas in your top 5. Chris has him second. I don't have Thomas in my top 12.

I'm on an island on Michael Thomas, for sure. But so is Dave. I think I'm on a different island. I think most people have him in between top 12. I'm on an island on Michael Thomas, for sure. But so is Dave. I think I'm on a different island. I think most people have him in between us. Yeah, I think he's right around. He's wide receiver nine in overall NFC ADP. He's closer to Keenan Allen than he is to A.J. Brown. I have heard Chris's argument for Michael Thomas many times.

Let's hear it again. But first, Dave, why you don't have him in the top 12? Drew Brees has retired. So now the option is to throw passes to Michael Thomas. Bonus pod! You've got Jameis Winston, who I don't think any of us should be convinced that he's suddenly going to become a more accurate quarterback, and you've got Taysom Hill, who did target Michael Thomas a lot, but it wasn't necessarily on a lot of deep stuff, a lot of slants. And I know that that's the type of route that Michael Thomas can dominate. I think defenses know at this point, it's like the opposite of what happened to A.J. Brown.

Defenses know what to do when they're taking on the Saints and it's third and eight. They're going to put an extra guy on Michael Thomas. He's beaten the double before. Can he keep doing it with a different quarterback who's not going to throw as accurate a ball as Drew Brees did? Makes me nervous. Makes me wonder just how many of his targets are going to be catchable and what is his upside as far as catches go? Because I will give him credit. The years where he had a catch rate of 70% plus, yeah, that's amazing. But a lot of it had to do with the fact that Drew Brees was throwing to him and Brees was throwing an accurate football. So'm a little nervous to to buy back into michael thomas knowing that the the system is changing and the way that defenses will approach the saints

will change okay chris give me your 30 to 45 second rebuttal i think there's value in all of that i don't think he's going to be, I mean, his catch rate in the last two healthy seasons is 85 and 81%, which is just, it's off the charts. Nobody does that as a wide receiver. It's rare to do that as a running back. He's not going to do that again, but I think what's going to happen, especially if Jameis Winston is the quarterback for the saints is I think the volume is going to be there. I think he's going to continue to be a 30% target share rate guy. I think he's going to be a 10 targets per game guy.

And I think what he loses in catch rate, I think he can make up for in slightly more valuable targets overall, or at least more valuable targets, a higher volume of valuable targets, more down the field attempts, which is not something that Drew Brees has done a ton, potentially more touchdowns with a more aggressive quarterback. Jameis Winston's issue as a quarterback has never been that he can't put yards and touchdowns on the board. The issue is that instead of 15 interceptions, which is what a normal quarterback would have in his shoes, he had 30 in his last season as a starter.

But it was not like he couldn't put up huge passing and touchdown numbers, and it's not like he couldn't sustain high-level fantasy production. Michael Thomas is still in his prime. He was basically 1400 yards, 120 catch guy with Taysom Hill. And that was when he wasn't healthy. His last game of the regular season was Taysom Hill's last game as a starter. He was dealing with that high ankle sprain pretty much all season. He went on IR twice. He came back in the playoffs, had seven catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. I think Michael Thomas is closer to the guy he was in 2018 and 2019 than what we saw

last season. And I think even with the QB change, he's going to be very, very good. Ultimately, a lot of it just comes down to math. He might just have volume that nobody but davante adams can touch breeze was this was in 2019 he was on target 14.2 percent more than jamis was oh yeah i mean it's it was a lot i'm just kind of rehashing what i said i'm i'm just worried that michael thomas might get 10 or 11 targets per game but eight or nine of them might be catchable, and then he's only catching seven or eight. And I say only like it's bad. It's not.

I'm just worried about that efficiency upgrade, too, that you're talking about, where he's going to start to do more down the field. I don't know if I can truly believe in it. I'll tell you what also concerns me is you did mention the numbers with Taysom Hill. I don't know that Jameis is keeping the job. You know, you got a contending team here. Last time with Tampa Bay,

they weren't a contending team. Remember the year before that, he kept losing his job to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yes, I know Jameis Winston can put up big numbers. He was a top five quarterback that year. I know that he can produce an elite wide receiver. He's given us a top three wide receiver twice. Mike Evans once, Chris Godwin once.

But I don't know that he's keeping the job. If he starts throwing interceptions, I think he's going to lose that job. I will just point out, even when he has the job, Taysom Hill's going to take him off the field for 10 snaps. QB has never been a problem for Michael Thomas. That is true. He was great with Bridgewater. He has played with three different starting quarterbacks

and he's been basically an elite fantasy wide receiver with all of them. Last year, he didn't score the touchdowns, but if he gets 120 catches and 1400 yards like he was on pace for, I think you're going to be happy with him. Any issues, guys, with Diggs or Hopkins, or are they basically

who we think they are i think digs is like i was gonna make the comment we could probably nitpick every receiver in the top five and come up with why they've got downside i don't know if i can come up with serious downside thoughts for stefan digs what josh allenressions? Yeah, that's the only one. But we talked about this earlier in the week. I don't think the Bills are suddenly going to become

a run team. I think they're going to continue to lean on Josh Allen as the genesis of their offense. I think Allen has learned how to throw an accurate football. We were just grooving. This is happening right now in our pockets. Can we get rid of it? There we go.

We need to clip that. That was amazing. That was awesome. Yeah. All right, Dave, get funky. Oh, my God. We have got to make some type of music. That is going to be a thing.

Love it. How do you differentiate between Diggs and Hopkins? You, Chris, have Diggs one spot ahead of Hopkins. They go 3-4. Is there a difference to you? There's very little differentiation between them. It's a 10-point projection difference. And across the board, it's two catches, 30 yards, one touchdown.

And the thing that's going to be key for me is I think Stefan Diggs plays with a better quarterback, but there's no question Kyler Murray is as talented as Josh Allen. And I think the addition of Rondell Moore could be really, really good for DeAndre Hopkins because this is something Cliff Kingsbury was raving about during minicamp is Rondell Moore's raving about during minicamp, is Rondell Moore's ability to make plays after the catch, which has been a huge part of the Cliff Kingsbury offense so far in Arizona, where it's been a lot of short throws, screens behind the line of scrimmage. DeAndre Hopkins, especially last season, had a ton of those types of targets.

His average depth of target fell to 8.9 yards. It was above 11 the previous two seasons. Those kind of targets, some of them are going to go to Rondale Moore. And I don't think it's just going to mean fewer targets for DeAndre Hopkins. I think it's going to mean more valuable targets. Like I was saying with Michael Thomas, if DeAndre Hopkins loses some of those shorter yard targets where he's catching a screen and getting six yards,

it might mean more downfield targets, more red zone targets, more of the more valuable targets that can help him make up for, you know, what might be a small loss in volume. I think when you look at all of these receivers, we've talked about Adams Hill, Michael Thomas,

Diggs, Ridley Hopkins, just stop, stop, stop Thomas, Diggs, Ridley, Hopkins. Just stop there with the top six. Hopkins is the only one that you could at least argue got serious competition this offseason with maybe A.J. Green's not completely washed up because he saw so many inaccurate passes. Dave pointed that out.

He saw the most inaccurate passes, the highest percentage of inaccurate passes, anybody who got 100 targets. Now, was that because he was not open, or was that because Burrow and him just had a bad connection? And then they drafted Rondell Moore. But that's what I love about this group,

is that Devontae Adams, whatever, Amari Rogers, not a big threat. Tyreek Hill, didn't add any big threat. Michael Thomas has absolute junk, you know, basically. Hopkins, you know, Diggs, that didn't add any big threat. Michael Thomas has absolute junk, you know, basically Hopkins digs that didn't add anybody. I don't think that green and more are going to really take away from him, but he's the only one Ridley got a better situation. Jefferson,

they didn't add anything. He's the only one where maybe he loses some target share because Deandre Hopkins had a 28% target share last year. And that was one of the lowest marks in the last six years for him. He was almost always 30% or more. Yeah, but he is still the alpha on a high volume

high paced offense that we hoped Kyler Murray would take the leap last season and there was early on especially a bit of a leap. Let's not forget Kyler Murray's season kind of went sideways when he had suffered that shoulder injury. I think it was against Pittsburgh in like week nine or 10. Um, his passing numbers really took a hit and Deandre Hopkins, you know, was if not, you know, the consensus number two wide receiver before that he was

right in that discussion. I don't think he was quite as good as Devontae Adams. I can tell you what he was, if you want. He was first nine games. He was eighth in non-PPR, third in PPR per game. Okay, there you go. Yeah, third. Yeah, I mean, he was on pace for 120 catches, 1,531 yards, only seven touchdowns.

So, you know, I do think the touchdown rate is ultimately what it comes down to. If Kyler Murray can be more effective in the red zone as a passer, I think that's where DeAndre Hopkins can make up for what he might lose in volume. And think about what that offense is going to look like in the red zone now. Last year, it was Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. This year, it's A.J. Green and Rondell. I think those are upgrades.

I think Green is an upgrade. Say what you will about him last year and how rough he was last year. I think he's an upgrade over Larry, even though Moore will play theoretically in the slot, whereas Green will line up outside more often than not. But Moore, I think anybody is an upgrade over Christian Kirk at this point. And those two guys combined for like 150 targets last year. Okay. Dave, tell me your top five and non PPR. Top five receivers and non PPR.

Tyree kill is still my number one. Chris makes an excellent case for Devante Adams to be the number one. He makes an excellent case for AJ Brown to be number two. AJ Brown is not there for me at all in the top five. It's Hill one Adams to digs Diggs three, Ridley four, Hopkins five. Okay, Chris, your top five in non-PPR. Yeah, it is. Let me sort.

Devontae Adams, Terry Kill, AJ Brown, Stefan Diggs, and Michael Thomas. So Thomas made your top five regardless of format. Yep. I'm really, really in on Michael Thomas. I think he's going to have an awesome year, but that is obviously not at all a knock against Calvin Ridley. You know who this reminds me of is Max Scherzer, Chris, who, although he is injured,

was someone that you were higher on than everybody. Yes. And really was a great call. I mean, it worked out for you because he's been awesome. He bounced back. He's got a 221 ERA and a 12.1 strikeout. He's what he was. I mean, he's even better than what he was

before last year's kind of freaky year. And I think it just kind of highlights a little bit of a philosophy of mine where I want to try to make sure I don't overreact to the most recent season. And I think it's easier in baseball than football because the, the player landscape and football changes a lot more dramatically from year to year than it does in baseball. But in Michael Thomas's case,

I don't think what we saw in 2020 was a skills decline. I think what we saw was he just wasn't healthy. He was playing through that, that ankle injury for the, for the for the pretty much the entire season i think he suffered in week one and so i'm willing to bet that the guy everyone thought was the number one wide receiver and uh you know consensus top five pick a year ago can get back to that level okay i'm gonna read some emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. This is from Jeff from the town where Jason Voorhees is from.

I have, that's not a movie series I've really watched. Where did Dave go? We lost him again? Football, football, football, football. Camp Crystal Lake, I know, is the camp. So I'm guessing Crystal Lake. I don't know is the camp, so I'm guessing Crystal Lake. I don't know what the town is. Yeah, I don't know.

Dear John, Casey, Jamie, and Rip. No idea. 10-team half PBR keeper league. I can keep up to three players in the round drafted. I can only keep the players for one year, then they're back in the draft pool. It's a three-receiver league and two flexes. My keeper options are remember, he they're back in the draft pool. It's a three receiver league and two flexes.

My keeper options are remember he can keep up to three of them. Cam Akers in the fifth, Antonio Gibson in the sixth, CeeDee Lamb in the tenth, Hawkinson in the fourteenth. This is a half PPR league. Akers in the fifth, Gibson in the sixth, Lamb

in the tenth, Hawkinson in the fourteenth. My league acres in the fifth gibson in the sixth lamb in the 10th hawkinson in the 14th my i think i would go i think lamb is the easiest call after that i think it's really close my my initial thought was because you're going three wide receivers two flex only one tight end spot the the tight end spot is even more diluted in your overall lineup and so the you know the fact that hawkinson might outscore the average tight end by three or four points matters a little less so i think i would go acres gibson and lamb but i'm also i think lower on hawkinson than the rest of our group. I'm glad you said that because I agree with you. This is a format, three wide receivers and two flex and half PPR,

where I feel the same way about tight ends. Unless it's Kelsey, really. And you can make the case for Kittle Waller. Yeah, I think this really hurts the tight end value. So I thought I was on an island with that philosophy. I'm glad you said that. All right, this is from Matt. Just finished listening to the latest podcast

and love the discussion on Cam Akers, particularly when you noted how risky it was taking him where he's going. I can't help shake the feeling that we're going to get bitten if we take him there. And there would be, you know, end of round one, early, early round two, round 12th overall. I posted this tweet the other day to try and illustrate something,

and the tweet was comparing Cam Akers to Miles Sanders as rookies. I can tell there's a lot of Akers supporters out there, and they came at me. Wouldn't be surprised to see his value increase as we get closer to the season, if this is any indication. I don't have to go through the whole tweet, but the tweet was basically saying, you know, we bought into Miles Sanders,

his late game stretch, and I was the guiltiest of all. Are we making the same mistake with Cam Akers? Because Sanders was better. He averaged more points per game in the last six full games. He averaged almost three more points per game. This is according to Matt. And a little bit more points per game in the last six full games. He averaged almost three more points per game. This is according to Matt.

And a little bit more points per touch. So that's why I do think it's silly to take Cam Akers over Stefan Diggs and Calvin Ridley and DeAndre, specifically Diggs and Hopkins in full PPR. And that's happening, and I don't agree with it. So, yeah, what do you think? Yeah. I've been like toying with the idea

of dropping this take and I'm not sure. So I'll just put it out there. Do it, yeah. And we'll see what happens. Are we 100% sure Cam Akers is very good? Well, Emory Hunt is not. I know that as a former running back and an evaluator of talent,

he actually thinks Daryl Henderson. I don't know that he thinks Daryl Henderson is better, but he thinks Daryl Henderson is more explosive. And yeah, we didn't see a ton of explosive plays from Cam Akers. So I think he's good. I think he's good. I'm not, no, I can't be convinced yet that he's incredible. He wasn't great in college.

I mean, he averaged five yards per carry his, his junior season. He was 4.9 overall. Yes. There were offensive line issues there. There were major offensive line issues last season with the Rams. But you know, you look under the hood at a lot of the advanced stats and he doesn't

really shine all that much. He had the, he was 39th among running backs and breakaway run rate 38th in yards per catch uh 35th innovative tackles um you know not a terrible receiver but not a great one in either college or uh the nfl so far and so it's it's a little bit of a volume play yeah in his case. I mean, even last season at the end of the year, the biggest thing he had going for him was he was getting like 28 carries.

And he had one of the lowest broken tackle rates. I think there are a lot of reasons to think Cam Akers might be more normal than his fantasy rankings would make you think. And people are so gaga over Cam Akers. Yeah, and look, I'm somewhat talent agnostic when it comes to running back. I think situation and role matters so much more. And if they start throwing the ball to him, like they've talked about a little bit in the offseason, and he remains the number one running back there it might it might not matter

he doesn't need to be super efficient if he gets 300 touches i just i do think there is a little bit of risk of him busting at this price and i've got him as you know my number 21 overall player so i am taking him behind my top six wide receivers i I am taking him behind Najee Harris and Jonathan Taylor and even Clyde Edwards-Elair, which I know Edwards-Elair especially is a bit of a hot take. But I like Edwards-Elair's role more than I like Akers, and I don't think there's a big talent difference between them. All right. Hopefully we can get into that on a future show that's an interesting debate let's read one more email here give me a moment from demarcus from a large city on the wisconsin minnesota border and then he says i'm not dave so i don't know yeah no idea madison st paul, I'm in a tent team.

I don't think those two cities are anywhere near each other. It's like Texas. Five hours apart. Okay. Minneapolis is next to St. Paul. I have not spent a lot of time in the Midwest. That's why they're called the twin cities, Adam.

Oh yeah. That's that. I did know that. Yeah. But I would, I have no idea where Minneapolis is. Like the Minneapolis twins, the Minnesota twins logo of the two guys shaking hands.

One is Minneapolis. The other is St. Paul. Yeah. That's the whole thing. Have I been to Minnesota? I've never been to Minnesota. It's a nice town. Which one?

Heath and I went for the FSGA conference a couple of years ago. I feel like I have been to Minnesota. Yeah, I don't know. Okay. Demarcus says he's in a 10-team PPR league, two quarterbacks, and it's dynasty. I had an awful season last year, finished second to last. My team

is aging. I received an interesting trade offer. Let me know what you think. I receive 1.8 in 2021, a 2022 first, a 2023 first, and Julio Jones. I give up 1.8 in 2021, a 2022 first, a 2023 first, and Julio Jones. I give up 1.2 in 2021, and Darren Waller. So you're giving up 1.2 and moving down to 1.8.

That's a big drop this year of your rebuilding. Especially in a 2QB league. You are also giving up Darren Waller. He has Mark Andrews. But you are getting a Especially in a 2QB league. You are also giving up Darren Waller. He has Mark Andrews, but you are getting a first-round pick in 2022, a first-round pick in 2023, and Julio Jones. That's a really tough

one. Darren Waller will be 29, I believe, on the first day of the season. Oh, happy birthday. The Thursday or Sunday? September 13th is the first Sunday of the NFL season? Oh, the day after week one Sunday. So if they play on Monday night, it'll be a birthday. The Raiders play every Monday night.

I think they probably are playing on Monday night. So he'll be 29 this season, either way. Julio, obviously older. So I think that the way you have to view this is you're trading Julio no matter what right now. And you're trying to get back another first round pick in 2021 if you can. They are playing on Monday night.

Every week one, the Raiders play Monday night football. And it's not even the late game because they don't have a late game. Oh, that's right. Yeah. My thought would be see what you could do just for Waller first and try to hang on to 1-2. And if you could get 1-8 and one of those first rounders for Waller,

I would do that. Because giving up 1-2, that's a really difficult thing to do when you're in a rebuild. If not, I think it's okay. But that's contingent on trying to get and hopefully being able to get a first-rounder for Julio Jones. A 2021 first-rounder, hopefully, too.

Okay, everybody. Thank you very much for listening today to this fantasy football, football, football, football today. Football, football, football. Football podcast. We appreciate it. We'll talk to you tomorrow with the top five.