Fantasy Football Today - Top 5 WRs! Kupp #1? Where's Davante Adams? (06/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 29, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Today we're bringing Jake Ciely on to help us debate the Top 5 wide receivers. He gives us his Top 3 (2:30) which includes Tyreek Hill at WR2 (in 0.5 PPR). Dave and Chris react to Jake's rankings and then to the latest news (10:50) ... Let's look at the consensus Top 5 WRs in PPR (14:00) and if our guys agree or disagree with those rankings. What was the most difficult decision they had to make when ranking their Top 5 (19:50)? Why did Davante Adams get left out? Should Cooper Kupp be WR1 ahead of Justin Jefferson (27:40)? ... Speaking of WR1, how many WRs have the upside to be the best at the position (37:50)? Does CeeDee Lamb? Calvin Ridley? We make the case for a lot of players ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, we are getting to the top five wide receivers in fantasy football for the 2023 fantasy season. And we've got a special guest joining us today. I'm Adam Azer with Dave Richard and Chris Towers is actually a fairly special guest. I shouldn't have put the word fairly in there. Just, you know, we have had you on recently. You are muted, Chris, so let's get in. There you are.

What's up, family? Only the special guests get to talk fairly special chris towers and very special jake sealy is here the all-in kid at all-in kid on twitter what's up jake what's going on yes the super duper special guest over chris towers the first guest we've had if you're watching on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday that has little emojis in his name there. Yeah, I was trying to figure out what that is. Is that a bird? Like a duck? That's a duck.

Because of DuckTales. And the money bag is because of Scrooge McDuck. Oh, okay. So there you go. Now you understand what the emojis mean. I forgot I had them on. I had them on for my show and I forgot they were there. I mean, I know DuckTales and Scrooge McDuck. I don't know what it has to do forgot i had them on i had them on for my show i forgot they were there i mean i know i know ducktales and scrooge mcduck i don't know what it has to do with with you or anything else but

you know because ducktales is my life look i mean i got the whatever these things are called somebody specifically went oh that works at disney world bought it and sent it to me and then i mean i've sung the ducktales song acapella on my show. Like, I got stuff behind me. I mean, I got the Funkos. I got DuckTales. I didn't realize. I had no idea. DuckTales is life, man.

How did I not know that about you? I'm sure you've seen the lead singer of Panic at the Disco sing the DuckTales song. I've seen it. Jimmy Fallon. Oh, it's horrific, right? There's nothing wrong with it, though. Do you know how many people, have you seen the one where they send the people in church and they say when the DuckTales beat drops and it's all the people in church going like,

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's like 15. I'm still having people send that, like text it to me and be like, man, have you seen this? I'm like only about 20 times now, but I appreciate that. I made it. People associate DuckTales with me. Okay. I will do that now.

I am sorry about that. All right. So we're talking about our top five wide receivers. That is Jake. He's of the athletic and a good friend of the program. And let me ask you before we get into the top five is we're going to do a quick overview here and then we'll do a couple of news items. There's not much. And then we will we'll talk about the top five, ask you some questions about it, make the case for number one for a bunch of these guys. What's your top three?

How do you rank your top three, Jake? My top three is Jefferson Hill Cup. But as we'll get to the discussion, if I could guarantee games, it would be a different order. Tyreek Hill is two, huh? Yes. I think that Tyreek Hill is number two for me. Yes. Dave, mind blown. That's interesting. I'm curious what Jamar Chase did to you to make you not put him in your top three. And I'm also curious why you're so confident that Tyreek Hill will be great, knowing that he's got a quarterback issue that it cost him some fantasy production last year. There were four games where Tua didn't play.

Tyreek's average was not great. It was good. So definitely curious to hear about that. Should we get into it now, or are we saving this for... Okay. Yeah, let's do it. So what it comes down to is... Dave's not wrong.

What your statement just was is, so when I look at what I want for the season, getting my team, my roster, and stuff like that, there's certain... Cooper Kopp has more than just one factor. That's why he's three. What I was going to say is alluding to, if you can guarantee me Stafford and Cup play the full season,

it's Cup. Cup, no question is number one for me. It's not even close in my opinion, but I'm factoring in two injuries. Dave, what you said about Tua, not wrong. And that's why he's two for me and not even over Justin Jefferson, because I think he's still has the higher ceiling. I still think that if I'm going for the argument here that Tua does continue his ascension that we started to see last

year and takes it a step further this year and does play the full season, which is a major question mark. But if all that happens, I think you look at the points per game and they were neck and neck, almost identical for Chase and Hill. But if you take out the games where there was no Tua or banged up Tua, you have a better Tyreek Hill. And it's kind of the Cooper Cup argument, but of his own standing. We're relying to it to stay there. So that's what it comes down to. If you want Chase over Tyreek Hill, I'm not going to argue much. He's in the same tier for me. And I think we talk about that a lot, tiers. But for me, I would go Hill for his upside because we've already seen what Chase can do,

like even if he plays the full season, but we know the per game basis. There's a higher ceiling, in my opinion, for Tyreek Hill if things break right. I think Chase, we've already seen the ceiling and I love Jamar Chase. And one thing that I think is worth adding, Jamar Chase did have a hip injury last year. It didn't end up being terribly serious he must want four games but it was a was it like a hairline fracture or something that's you know a fairly scary thing that you know he played through and ultimately it didn't end up being an issue he played really really well but uh you know that's there's no there's not zero injury

concern there for jamar chase i would say oh also i mean people penalize cooper cup for his injury they don't even consider penalizing jamar chase and you you maybe you just shouldn't penalize anyone as i guess my point um all right so uh does anybody so tyree kill yeah i mean the numbers with two you know i actually found interesting doing this morning i mean this is obviously this is some stat manipulation but so if you just take you don't ever do that right just take a look at the dolphins with You know what I actually found interesting doing this morning? I mean, obviously, this is some stat manipulation. Oh, you don't ever do that. Just take a look at the Dolphins with Tua last year.

If you actually look at the eight games that Tua was healthy for before Jalen Waddell got hurt in the San Francisco game. So just go from week one to week 12 and remove the games without Tua. Waddell actually scored more fantasy points than Tyreek Hill. They both per game would have been like top three or four wide receivers, but Waddle had more touchdowns. So I was actually shocked by that. Waddle's per game averages, we weren't planning to talk about him. They're really hurt by that San Francisco game. And then he was awful the next week against the Chargers. And then, of course, he was terrible with Skylar Thompson the last two games.

But yeah, I thought that was really interesting. Not only did Tyreek Hill have much, much better numbers when Tua started and finished, but Jalen Waddell also could be in this top five discussion if he wanted to extend it. I mean, I know he isn't, Dave, but just saying the numbers were incredible when Tua was healthy.

They were propped up by a couple of humongous games. You know, in week two, both Tyreek and Waddle scored over 40 PPR points each. And then it was like, I think it was closer to like week eight or so. Might be off by a game or two. They both scored 30 PPR points. I would say Tyreek is just more consistent. He gets about 10 and a half targets per game from Tua. That's what it was last year.

I would expect that to continue. Waddle's still going to be great, but Tyreek's the one who's going to get drafted first. Yeah, I'm sure. They're both, they're both a expected to be wide receiver ones. B, totally tied to Tua. I don't think they can be quite as productive with Mike White under center.

Well, then, can I ask a question, Adam? Because this is your show, but I want to ask a question, Dave, because you just brought up an interesting thing, which ties into something that Chris said is, in my mind, I didn't bring this up with Jamar Chase, but I'm worried about the T. Higgins effect. Should we be more concerned about Waddle in the same fashion? Like, am I – me, personally, am I not factoring Waddle enough for Tyreek Hill like I do with Higgins for Chase? I like it. Not only did you ask a question, you asked yourself a question, so you could be the one to answer it.

Go ahead, Chris. And it's one of those things where I think one of the reasons I really like Jalen Waddell as a player is the fact that he has shown the ability to thrive in two very, very different roles and very different types of offenses in the NFL. And that, I think, is a really good indicator of how good a wide receiver is. He's been that RPO-heavy, move-the-chains guy that he was in his first season. And then last year, he was used almost exclusively as a downfield guy. And he excelled and he thrived in both. It reminds me of Stefan Diggs when he was with the Vikings before he got that chance to be a true alpha in Buffalo. I think Jalen Waddell has shown he has that kind of ability now. And so it wouldn't surprise me if there was a flip at some point between Waddle and Hill where Waddle becomes the alpha and Hill becomes more of not a role player because Jalen Waddle

wasn't a role player, but not the do-it-all guy that Tyreek Hill was last season. I think it's unlikely to happen this season, given what we saw from Tyreek Hill last year. Jake, to your point, I've mentioned this before. It won't be the last time. I think it's an important point. I don't know how much it really matters, but it's why I wouldn't rank Chase number one. I think this probably applies to Tyreek Hill as well.

I've looked over the last seven seasons. At all the times, we've had two wide receiver teammates both finish in the top 16. And I was going to do top 15. It just turned out there were a few examples where there was a wide receiver 16. So I said, okay, we'll just make it top 16. So again, wide receiver teammates who both finished top 16. We've never had a wide receiver one.

We've never had one of those guys finish as wide receiver one in PPR. We did have it in non PPR, Jordy Nelson once. That was going to be the one. But Chris Godwin, I think was wide receiver to Jordy Nelson was wide receiver to it has happened, but I do have, I have made this point a lot. Typically wide receiver one doesn't have serious competition from another wide receiver on his team. Um, if you just, you know, if you just think Cooper cup, yeah, exactly.

Thomas Devante Adams, Justin Jefferson last year. You know, it's a pretty familiar script. These guys are far and away. The number one target doesn't mean you can't finish two or three or whatever, but usually we've never had a wide receiver one over the last seven years

in these scenarios. All right. We'll take a little break from that conversation and get to the news and notes. I do want to tell you about Morning Buzz on CBS Sports HQ. If you missed some of the action while you were sleeping, I was awake for Domingo Roman last night. It was really cool. It was very fun to watch,

but there's a lot of stuff that happens that you don't know about in the sports world. So your sports day starts here with the Morning Buzz. Highlights from all the top games and leagues. Catch up on storylines and social buzz. Jump in and jump out. Morning Buzz runs all morning starting at 9 a.m. Get it all for free on the CBS Sports app.

News and notes. Dave, why did the Patriots sign Devontae Parker to a three-year extension? I don't know. I don't know i don't know no and i'm i'm that that's not me trying to be funny i i don't know what they're doing i don't know why they would do that did it save money on the cap this it must have that's the only thing that it's just it's an accounting trick right yeah he has like guaranteed on the new deal so yeah, yeah, they must like him. Okay.

Well, the accounting side of it was where the rumors came that he would get axed if they brought in DeAndre Hopkins. So you are right in that facet, but I'm still with Dave. Like, still why? Two games last year with over 13 PPR fantasy points. Yeah. Okay. Sorry, Jake. Jake, I'll get your take on this next news item.

James Palmer of NFL Network says, multiple people in the Broncos organization think Tim Patrick is the best football player among the wide receivers. Your thoughts? I don't disagree that he's a factor, but best? We could be a little hyperbolic with that one like the pure talent we say we're gonna take judy potentially even something but does he deserve to be mentioned as a potential difference maker absolutely we've already seen tim patrick if we're

gonna talk fantasy purposes we've seen tim patrick put up top 50 top 40 fantasy numbers granted different offense granted granted different quarterback. But if we're going to sit here and say, we expect this offense, Russell Wilson to bounce back under Sean Payton, if Cortland Sutton continues what we've seen, which we could argue, I think objectively and say it's been a disappointing career for Cortland Sutton, if he falls to third, which with Sean Payton could be an option because of who he likes, and all of a sudden Judy and Patrick are the one and two for Russell Wilson in a quote-unquote bounce-back season, I think it's worth noting, I think the statement itself is hyperbolic.

Okay. Let's take a break, and when we come back, we will get into the top five. I haven't even told you the consensus top five based on the rankings of Dave, Jamie, and Heath, so we'll do that after this. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year. Don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks. Before you break ground, make it a point to request a locate. It's not just the law.

It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. And welcome back here with Jake Seeley and Chris Towers and Dave Richard. I'm Adam Azer and let's get into the consensus top five wide receivers. And here it is, the combination of rankings from Jamie Dave Heath, Justin Jefferson 1. This is PPR, by the way. All week long, it's been PPR rankings.

Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Cooper Cup, Tyreek Hill is four, and Stefan Diggs is five. So Devontae Adams does not make the cut. CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Amon Rasim Brown, Garrett Wilson, et cetera, Jalen Waddell. But it's Jefferson, Chase, Cup, Tyreek Hill, and Stefan Diggs. Dave, what's your reaction to that? That's my top five.

So I think that that's probably going to be the consensus among fantasy managers too. Everybody's going to race to get Jefferson because of how great he was last year and how that Vikings offense is going to continue to throw the ball like crazy. Chase is a very close second. Cup is a very close third.

Tyreek, we've already talked about him and what his upside is and potentially wide receiver one in fantasy. And Diggs has been steady too. So this is the list of the most likely steady 20 PPR point per game producers at the wide receiver position. Okay, Chris. So Dave goes Jefferson, Chase, Cup, Tyreek, Hill, Stefan, Diggs. How about you?

Jefferson, Cup, Chase, Hill, and Diggs. So the only change is Cup ahead of Chase. I think there's a two-person tier at the top. I think there's another two-person tier. And then I think Diggs is below Chase and Hill. All right. But kind of in his own tier. Why is Diggs in his own tier?

Yeah. So why did you move Cup ahead of Chase but not Jefferson? Why do you see Chase not being in the same tier as the first two? You know, part of it is just that's how the projections came out. But part of it is I haven't... I have seen the 22 point per game for a full season production from, you know, Jefferson got very close last season.

What 21.5, obviously cup has been cup has been on a completely different level the past two seasons. I think there's a better argument for him as the number one wide receiver than there is as the number three wide receiver personally. And so that's it for me. It's just Chase hasn't shown. If he puts together the volume from his 2022 season with the efficiency of his 2021 season, then we're talking about him as the number one player. But we haven't seen that yet.

We've seen Justin Jefferson do that. We've seen Cooper Cup go to a level far beyond even that. So that's where it comes down to for me. Does it matter that Chase averaged more fantasy points as a rookie than Jefferson did and averaged more fantasy points as a sophomore than Jefferson did per game? I can see the case for why that would matter, but it assumes that progress is linear for every player. And that because Justin Jefferson took another step forward in his third season, Jamar Chase will also take a step forward in his third season. And that's not necessarily how it works. Justin Jefferson takes the step forward in year three in large part because the offense that he's in changes dramatically. It becomes a much more pass-heavy offense.

And he had a declining Adam Thielen throughout that. Those factors aren't there for Jamar Chase. And so I don't think you can necessarily just assume Jamar Chase, okay, now he's going to take a step to 23 points per game because that's the path Justin Jefferson did. All right, Jake, what's your top five? Yeah, if we're talking specifically PPR, which earlier with the Tyreek Hill, my brain default is half point PPR. So just to clarify, but I'm going to say like for what Chris just said, this is if I draft, if I draft, I'm going to draft on what is a likely outcome, could happen. Granted, there's a lot of risk with this, but Cup's going to be my one. In PPR, in full PPR, Cup is going to be my one.

Yes, Stafford and Cup, I just made the argument for the Hill situation. Both of them had the wrong situation in the fact that two potential injuries affect them. Cup himself, granted, it's only one major injury to his career at this point. But Stafford, if he loses Stafford for half the season and look at what's behind Stafford, Stenson, Bennett, do we really believe Bennett can carry what Stafford was doing? Maybe, but there's more risk. But I would go Kup, Jefferson, Chase, Hill, and then I really want to put Adams there because my projections say that. But if I'm drafting, it's going to be the consensus.

I'm going to go Diggs. Diggs has, I think, a lower ceiling by a smidge, but also the higher floor. So you're getting a combination of the both. We're assuming potential things go wrong. We saw the transition of Adams going from Rodgers to Carr, and that wasn't a problem. But now it's Garoppolo question mark? Like Garoppolo even has the Stafford situation kind of going on. So I think this is going to be like Richard and Towers both just said,

is like, this is the five. This is the five. Maybe you mix it up a little bit different depending on your style, your risk adversement, but I'm going to go cup one and then the similar conversation from there. All right. So Jake, not only the first guest to have emojis in his name, but also the first one to call Dave by his last name,

Richard. Did that throw you off too, Dave? Cause I was like, who? No, not at all. Okay.

I'm just glad he didn't say Richards. That's true. Yeah. All right. That means he's paying attention. Good. The man has attention to detail. So nobody has Devante Adams in their top five,

and I'm sure we'll talk about that. I could make a case for it. I want to draft my projections. Okay. Yeah. No, I can make a case for that. We will make cases. We'll get into that a little bit later.

Let me ask you, Jake, I'll go to you first. What was the most difficult decision that you had to make regarding your top five? It could be within the top five could be leaving someone like Adams out. There's been years past where I'll go back to the year Lamar Jackson was the MVP. Actually, my projections, and this is me like, ha ha, look at my projections, because we all change things up and they're manipulated by me. This is why I let people download them and change them. But I actually had Lamar Jackson as the QB one that year. And I said, there's no way I'm going to push him down. And I pushed him down manually to five or six that year. And I was wrong. My projections right now say Adams, Chase, then Diggs. So they even has Chase behind Adams. This really comes down to start the season healthy. I'm going to manipulate that team as it is. It also comes down to what do you believe on yards per catch for Diggs? Do you believe he's more of the 1,400-yard guy that we've seen?

Or do you believe he's more of the 1,200-yard guy that we see? Because that's a big difference. And that's what it comes down to. So if I'm drafting as of today, I'm going to draft against my projections. I won't take Adams before Diggs. But my projections are telling me it's not only Adams in front of Diggs, it's Adams in front of Chase. And I don't think anybody on this show, I think everybody, if I actually said that as my list, I think Dave and Chris would both be like, you're drunk, Jake. Get off the show. Here's what I want to know.

Do you have a stat projection in front of you for Devontae? Yes. Targets, catches, yards, touchdowns. What have you got? 152 targets, 95 receptions, 1443 yards, and 10.4 touchdowns. A little low on the targets, I think. Yeah. 25.8% of the targets.

Target share. Yeah. I don't know. I would have expected like 100. I would expect 10 targets a game per Adams, but I'm doing projections. 9.5 yards per target? Well, that's the thing about Devonta Adams is like, we kind of did this last year, right? Where it's like, oh, the quarterback change.

He's losing Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers just loved throwing Devonta Adams. Well, I think just was 33%, if I have the number correct. It's just like if Devontae Adams is on the field, you're going to throw a third of your passes his way. That's just what happens. And so it's like there's been a lot of focus on, well, Derek Carr threw the ball down the field a lot last season, and that's not something Jimmy Garoppolo does. Well, for most of Derek Carr's career, he was derided as a checkdown artist.

He was derided as a guy who wasn't willing to take chances, who was too willing to play it safe. He gets Devontae Adams on his side. All of a sudden, he's throwing all those 25-yard passes down the field because that's what you do when you have Devontae Adams. Now, I'm not saying it's necessarily 100% going to be the case with Jimmy Garoppolo, but wide receivers earn targets. Wide receivers own their average depth of target. There's a lot of data that suggests both of those things are mostly the case. And so I think the biggest issue is just we have so much of a question about Jimmy Garoppolo's health. However, I will point out Devontae Adams in his career has played, it looks like, 11 games where his starting quarterback has

had four or fewer pass attempts. So there was one game where Aaron Rodgers had four pass attempts. The rest is when the backup quarterback was starting. He's averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game in full PPR, 17 game pace of 99 catches, 1300 yards and 11 touchdowns. Now that's not, that's not top five, 17.1 PPR points per game. That's like wide receiver eight. Most seasons. That's still really,

really good when you're talking about Deshaun Kaiser and Trevor Simeon or now Garrett Stidham. Sorry. Yeah. So it's like, that's pretty good. Now Brian Hoyer might not be any better than those guys. So if he has to play a full season with Brian Hoyer,

that's probably a bad thing. They'd get the rookie in there. Yeah. But if it's Carson Wentz, I don't think Carson Wentz is any good. He's better than Deshaun Kizer. You think Aiden O'Connell comes in? Is that what you're saying for the rookie? I think so.

I think he'd eventually play. And something buried in what Chris was saying was, I'm assuming what you were alluding to, Dave, when I spat out my projections. So I actually do have him with a higher reception percentage than he did with Derek Carr, lower share, which you could argue for, but I actually have his efficiency going up, the yards coming down a little bit because it's Garoppolo. Right. But here's where I think there's even a higher ceiling for Adams is I have over 100 targets going to Meyer and Hooper combined, and I have over 100 targets going to Jacoby Myers.

I might be drunk on those. You could even say you're too high on the share going elsewhere, but I think Garoppolo's style actually will have him turning elsewhere as much as Adams is still getting 150 targets. And that's what it comes down to for me with Devontae Adams because I think if you – here, I did a comparison of Rodgers, Derek Carr, and Jimmy Garoppolo over the past four seasons. The guy with the highest completion rate was Garoppolo. Highest yards per attempt was Garoppolo.

Highest interception rate, lowest ADOT, lowest deep rate, also Garoppolo. So I'm a little bit worried. Listen, his adjusted completion rates are on par, if not better, than Derek Carr in 2022. So I'm not saying that this is any kind of a serious downgrade as far as quarterback goes from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo. Except I'm wondering if Garoppolo is going to be forced into, you're going to throw deep. We need you to get the ball to Devontae Adams. We're going to call his number 150 times over the course of the season.

20% of those throws are going to be beyond 15 yards. You better get ready for that because that's not what Garoppolo is used to doing. It's not Adams either, though. I think that's another thing that's kind of lost in this is that he's not a deep guy. He was a little bit last year, but an 11.8 ADOT is not, you know, it's not like earth shattering. It's not super high. And if you look at 2020, 8.9 yard ADOT for Devante Adams, career low, is the number one wide receiver in fantasy that year. So he can do anything.

He can do anything. Yeah, that's I think the big thing is that whatever, whatever you like, what you said about, you know, we're going to throw 20% of our passes down the field, whether you're comfortable with it or not. That's what it felt like watching Derek Carr in this offense last year. It felt like because his completion percentage on deep passes was really low. And I think that's a big part of why Devontae Adams had the worst catch rate of his career since 2015 was they were forcing things to happen that didn't necessarily fit with Derek Carr's strengths or what he was most comfortable with, but they still did it. And I think that's just, you've got Devontae Adams, you get him the ball. Not to oversimplify it too much, but I think there's a risk of overthinking things. I think the one thing with Devontae Adams that we haven't mentioned is he's going to be 31 this year. And the wide receiver aging curve is the peak is 28, 29, 27 to 29. And then you start to see the cliff. Now, Hall of Fame players age differently. And obviously, he's still really, really good already. So you assume he's going to continue to be really

good. But there's a chance for some age-related decline as well, which I think factors in. All right. Dave, what was the most difficult decision you had to make in your rankings of the top five? Whether or not Justin Jefferson warranted the top spot, because I think it's really close between him and Jamar Chase. In fact, in non-PPR, I think Chase has a chance to score more touchdowns and get more yards. So Chase is my wide receiver one in non-PPR. Half and full PPR, I just don't see Justin Jefferson not getting the same type of target share. Yeah, they added Jordan Addison, but this is one of my favorite sets. It's about when I talk about Addison. 17 games last year, the Vikings played 12 of them. a wide receiver had at least seven targets. Any wide receiver. It was usually Adam Thielen. Now I figure those targets just go right into Jordan Addison's lap, but it still means that there's still going to be double-digit targets on a per-game basis to Justin Jefferson.

And if Addison is any good, it's going to force defenses to play a little bit more zone coverage than they'd like, and that means great things for Justin Jefferson. He should be able to be effective in that regard. So I think he gets more catches than chase. And I think that that helps him get over the top as the wide receiver one and the one-on-one in fantasy drafts this fall. Okay. But you know what my follow-up question is going to be?

Whereas why not cup? Cause you know, that's a huge part of the debate for most people. The lack of safety in Stafford staying healthy. Now, if the fantasy gods come down from the fantasy heavens and say, Matthew Stafford will play at least 15 games, you've got nothing to worry about, I'll make the switch because it's been ultra elite production between those two.

2021, you know this 25.3 PPR points per game and 11.2 targets per game. That's the first year Stafford with Cup. Last year, 24.8 PPR points per game. That's close to 25 in the first eight games with Matthew Stafford. And how do you ignore that? And I think that that's Jake's argument for having Cup at number one, is that you can get a player who's got 25 PPR points. That's like a good quarterback at wide receiver for your team.

And this is a Rams offense that I don't know how good they're going to be running the football. I think they'll be okay. I don't think they've got – I don't think Puka is going to end up being a good number two receiver that's going to take targets away. I don't think Higby going to end up being a good No. 2 receiver that's going to take targets away. I don't think Higby is going to take targets away. And I happen to think that the defense is going to be worse than it's been. So they're going to be in a lot more dogfight games,

playing from behind games. It's a tough schedule. But even if they play the Niners twice, who cares? Who cares? Because Cup has scored at least 20 PPR points in five straight games against the 49ers, all with Matthew Stafford. So the only reason for me is that if Matthew Stafford isn't there, you're seeing a significant downgrade with Cooper Cup in terms of production.

That's why he's third. In 30 games since the start of the 2021 season, Justin Jefferson averaged 21.5 PPR points per game. In 30 games since the start of the 2021 season just justin jefferson averaged 21.5 ppr points per game in 30 games since the start of the 2021 season cooper cup has 20 with more than 21.5 ppr points it's just the level of production that's including the three the four postseason games uh last year two years ago the level of production has just been on a completely there's nobody close if we're just talking yeah projected per game performance and i think the thing that's kind of ironic, I guess, is I share the concerns about Matthew

Stafford's health. And I think this is reflective of us not taking the concern seriously enough a year ago. Matthew Stafford is by all accounts healthier right now than he was this time a year ago. This time a year ago, they were openly saying he's not going to throw in training camp. He wasn't throwing in OTAs. He's going to to throw in training camp. He wasn't throwing in OTAs. He's going to be on a pitch count. They have no limitations for Matthew Stafford right now. And that's not to say that those injury concerns aren't there because we're talking multiple neck or back injuries over the course of his career now. But I do think it's interesting that his quarterback is healthier this year than he was a year ago.

Yeah. I mean, the way that the fantasy community looks at injuries is always so... It's inexact. It's inexact, but it's all recency bias every year. Like Dan was saying yesterday, we're not even a little concerned about Christian McCaffrey getting hurt anymore. He's just 101. He's just hands down. No problem. All right.

Next question here. Which top five wide receiver has the most upside? Chris, which top five wide receiver is the most? Okay, Cup. Jake? There's no question. Cup for everybody? Yeah.

Cup for everybody. Okay. Which top five wide receiver has the most downside? Cup. Might be Cup. Same answer. Two questions, one Cup. He's the oldest? Oh oldest oh wow i was wondering if

that kind of reference is going to come in of course it's gonna go yeah well who else no there's not because unless you're saying we're not going to argue injury is a risk factor here because there's stafford and cup then he's clearly has the most downside I think that if you said not Cooper Cup, out of Jefferson, Chase, Hill, and I think Hill. And Diggs. I mean, I think Diggs is the safest floor by far. What's going to happen to Diggs? Are we going to do the Gabe Davis thing again?

Dalton Kincaid is playing wide receiver. What about all these issues? Like this unhappiness. He gets to call plays this year. Perceived unhappiness. Well, it is interesting that Diggs, Hill, like Jefferson and Chase are babies. They're like seven years away from worrying about age. But Diggs, Hill, Cup, Adams are all 29 or 30 already. And so it's like this is it's been an interesting couple of years in the dynasty space,

especially a wide receiver, because so like the best wide receivers before chase and Jeff and, and Jefferson took off, we're all already in their mid to late twenties. And so it's been really difficult to figure, but they've all just remained dominant either way. So it doesn't, it hasn't mattered yet.

It's a good group. You got the two injury that Dave said earlier was part part of the concern which i think is warranted but let's go back to the wild conversation we had you know tyreek hill's game like even with two has been predicated on the fact that he's pushing he's not on the cup level but he's pushing that adams target share week in a week out if it even becomes let's Tua plays 16 of the 17 games, but it becomes balanced with Waddle. He falls out of sight of the top five because he's reliant on the yards and the receptions more than the touchdowns that Waddle's been able to put up on a per catch basis.

Who does better in PPR? Cooper Cup catching passes from Stetson Bennett or Tyree Kill catching passes from Mike White? I mean, you got to love the veteran presence that Stetson Bennett brings to the table. I would say Tyreek Hill. Golf clap for that. I think I would too. I would take Cup. I think Cup is quarterback immunity.

I think it might depend on scoring. Well, he was quarterback immunity. He had like negative yards in the one game he played with John Walford. He left after two-thirds of the snaps, but he had I think he had like two catches for negative one yard. Three catches, negative one yard on five targets. I'm going to put this out here today. I would take rookie not playing a single snap Bennett over Walford

a billion times over. I would too. I have one question. I want to know what you guys think about this. I haven't brought this up. Toward the end of last... I mean, if you watch the Dolphins, we all watch the Dolphins, so much of their success was just basically not to the outside

of the field, right? Like the seams and in. And up the seam, up the seam, up the seam. And remember, late in the year, the linebackers for the opposing teams

were starting to drop back into coverage differently and taking away the strengths of the Dolphins. And it did really seem to affect them. Etua specifically. Now, Hill and Waddell were still getting their numbers. But I'm wondering if the Dolphins, and it did really seem to affect them. Tua specifically. Now, Hill and Waddell were still getting their numbers,

but I'm wondering if the Dolphins were maybe like a little quasi-gimmicky last year, if Tua maybe played above his talent level, and if defenses will be able to adjust, or if you think that they're just, you know, that they're just too talented, Mike McDaniel, too intelligent and innovative, and they'll be fine. Any thoughts, Dave?

No, I think that Mike McDaniel will have a counterpunch. Now it's harder for coaches to come up with a counterpunch, especially young coaches in the middle of the season. You're giving him a whole off season. He's recognized what you're saying is that the defenses are starting to flood the middle of the field. And you look at two of his numbers in the last third of the season, he had one game with more than 20 fantasy points.

So there's definitely something to that. The offensive line not being great also has something to that. I think a lot of the matchups down the stretch also weren't good. And I'm sure the Dolphins were trying to protect Tua because of the concussion issues that he was having. So I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to McDaniel and say that if defenses are going to clog the middle of the field against the Dolphins, they're just going to run a lot more out routes

and double moves, stuff like that, a lot more post-corner routes that'll get those wide receivers open pretty easily. Okay. Yeah, he just doesn't have a great arm. But if nobody's concerned about that, I thought this was the right time to bring that up. It's been on the back of my mind. All right, let's take a little break here.

When we come back, I want to know how many wide receivers we can make the case for to be the number one wide receiver in fantasy. We'll be right back. All right, who's number one? So obviously Jefferson and Cup, easy case to make to be wide receiver one. Chris, in your opinion, who else, and it doesn't have to just be in the top five, could be however far down the road you want to go,

who else could be the number one wide receiver in fantasy this year? That's a hard question to answer, right? Because two years ago, did anyone really think Cooper Cup had a chance to be not just the number one wide receiver, but one of the most historically productive wide receivers we've ever seen? Actually, I believe Jake had it that way in his projections, but moved him down. That's true, but he moved him down. I remember that.

And so it's to say that there are always wide, wide error bars when we're talking about these, but I would say Justin Jefferson, Cooper Cup, Jamar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Devontae Adams. I think you could really squint and make a case for Garrett Wilson. Diggs? This one, yeah, probably Diggs.

Is it crazy to say Amonra St. And then is it crazy to say a Monro Saint-Brown? Like, is it crazy to say that he just has like a diet Cooper Cup season, catches 135 passes? Diet Cooper Cup. I mean, I would put Lamb. What about Lamb? I just think with the – I think Lamb is more of a floor than a ceiling play. And maybe that's just – I've been a little lower on Lamb since he came in the NFL. I think Lamb is more of a floor than a ceiling play.

I've been a little lower on Lamb since he came in the NFL. But I just think with the changes that they're making to their offense, the fact that it's likely to be a lower passing volume, lower volume offense overall, and the addition of Brandon Cooks, I don't worry too much about target competition so much, but I could see it shaving a point off his target share in addition to all the other changes. I have a harder time making that case than I do for some of the other guys. I had somebody else, but I'm with him on Lamb. I think Lamb, for me, has the similar argument. He's the better wide receiver, better production, but the McLaurin

situation, it's like for all intents and purposes, Lamb's pretty much had the target share. He's already had it. How is he going to get much more to really reach that number one stat? The one name that I would include in that conversation that I could think could happen, I think Chris Alave should be here, especially with Derek Carr. If Derek Carr attaches to him and Michael Thomas, he's in the weight room, BSOL, guys. He's back again for the 15th year in a row. Like, Michael Thomas is even healthy but toast as a receiver of what we've known him as. Michael Thomas was also Michael Thomas with Drew Brees. Not too dissimilar from Derek Carr's style, but enough that what if Derek Carr just treats

Olave like he did with Devontae Adams last year? And what if Olave takes that next step forward? I think if you're telling me number one, I don't think Amon Ross St. Brown is a bad mention either, especially with Jameson Williams now suspended at the start of the year. But I think if the one that kind of has an outlier of, could he get to 30%? Could he be that next step forward? I would take him before I would take Garrett Wilson to reach number one. If we're specifically saying like, could it happen? I think Olave has a better path, in my opinion than garrett wilson does i think too many people are ignoring not you guys but ignoring the fact that aaron rogers just loves alan lazard when they get into the scoring he

had more end zone targets than davante adams did two years ago he did right but that kind of alan lazard i kind of flipped it late in the year christian watson started getting all those green zone right sure that was year, not two years ago. Still, point being, the Al-Azhar effect to Garrett Wilson, I think, is just being completely overlooked from the touchdown standpoint mainly. All right, Dave, what do you think? I'll tell you, Dave, who has a better chance of being wide receiver one, Lamb or Amonra St. Brown?

I'll say Lamb because I know that Amonra St. Brown, those last six games of 2021, that's going to weigh on people's minds. The fact that he had 24.6 PPR points per game then in his last nine games last year, 18.2. When I think of wide receiver one, I need to think of a guy that's got a shot to get over 20 PPR points per game. And I don't think Brandon Cooks is the same guy that he was two, three years ago.

I think Lamb is still going to command a ton of targets. If he sees an uptick in touchdowns, that could get him really close to 20 PPR points per game. He was at 19.2 from week seven on last year. That's when Dak came back from his injury. That's pretty close to 20. I could see something like that possibly happening, but I've got to do the Chris Towers

squint your eyes thing. I thought that was cute. You can do that with Lamb. I get where Jake was coming from with Olave. There's two other receivers that finished last year strong. Circumstances kind of helped Devontae Smith average 20.3 PPR points per game in his final six. We spent time on our last podcast talking about him and how he could potentially just continue on a tear because he's such a good wide receiver. And then Jerry Judy, this is going to sound so stupid. Yeah, let's go. 20.1 PPR points per game in his final five Sutton played in three of those games. I'd be surprised if Russell,

I don't know if Russell's ever going to get back to where he was in Seattle, like his best days in Seattle. I'd be stunned if he's just as bad as he was last year in Denver. It's a better coaching staff. And the one thing I know about Sean Payton is that when it comes to his wide receivers, when he finds one that can do even two things really well, he will have that guy do those things well over and over and over again. Remember how we all called Michael Thomas like the slant God, because all he did was catch slant passes for two years in New Orleans. Well, that's an example of Sean Payton finding his best receiver and just scheming them up to do things exactly the way that he wants them to do it. And if he finds that with Jerry Judy, and Judy proved that last year before Sean Payton was even there,

then maybe there's a chance that he can break out and maybe he can get up close toward wide receiver one. I think we got a great call from Kanani K in the chat. If you're looking for a sleeper, Calvin Ridley could be wide receiver one. I could see him. And look, no one's ranking it that way, but I think you could make a nice case.

How about a guy that everyone? I feel like has sort of written off as the upside play. But what about DK Metcalf? What if he can get back to the 15 catch yards per catch guy? He was in his first two seasons with the 140 ish targets he had last season. Do we think there's any path to that? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's harder now than it was he had last season. Do we think there's any path to that? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, look, top four.

I think it's harder now than it was this time last year. Top four in end zone targets every year of his career. I don't know, man. He doesn't catch enough passes, I think. I can't see DK Metcalf getting to 100 catches, and that's pretty much a requirement if you're going to be wide receiver one, at least in this format.

First half of the two years ago. I don't want to put words in your mouth, Dave, That's pretty much a requirement if you're going to be wide receiver one, at least in this format. First half of the two years ago. I don't want to put words in your mouth, Dave, but as you said harder now, I think the question is, I'm on team. Let's not put Smith and Jigba in front of either one of them in drafts like some people are doing right now. But I think the problem is, we can sit here and say, we can see that happen if Lockett starts to fall off said but if lockett starts to fall off i think smith and jayba is one of the best if you just put on paper the entire 32 teams one of the best potential threes a team might have probably top 10 top five even that's my concern it's like if he falls off while smith and jayba kind of fills that void even though they might share it together jsn would be the number one receiver on probably three or

four teams in the league right now. I appreciate people putting Smith and Jigba ahead of Tyler Lockett in some of their rankings because we got to keep that seven-year stretch of Tyler Lockett being the best value in fantasy going. He's the David Ortiz of fantasy

football. The Jarvis Landry. Jarvis Landry, exactly. Alright, just a couple things here. Stefan Diggs, I just want to point out. Stefan Diggs, He's the David Ortiz of fantasy football. The Jarvis Landry. Jarvis Landry, exactly. Award. All right, just a couple things here. Stephon Diggs, I just want to point out. Stephon Diggs, before Josh Allen's elbow injury, Stephon Diggs was on pace for 128 catches, 1,821 yards, and 15 touchdowns on 176 targets.

That's your wide receiver one. Of course, Josh Allen was on pace for 5,100 yards and 40 touchdowns on 37.3 pass attempts per game. And Lamb, I think, has a little bit of hidden upside because the Cowboys, they went from fourth in the NFL in pass rate inside the 10-yard line in 2021 to 19th in 2022. They went from 15 rushing touchdowns in 2021 to 24 in 2022. So I think that's what it is for Lamb. I could just see them throwing the ball more. I think they were 19th in pass attempts.

Dak really didn't have a very good year. He had one of, I don't want to say it was a bad year, but statistically it was a down year for Dak. So if he passes the ball more, if he gets his yards per attempt up to where we saw it in 2020 and 2021 or maybe 19 and 20, whatever it was. There's a lot. I think there's some production there for CeeDee Lamb that we didn't see. But Mike McCarthy is calling the plays now. Yeah, but I mean,

I think that's a little bit overrated. I mean, because like I said last year, they were pretty damn run heavy, especially when it counted. And it's not like Mike McCarthy's never coordinated a good offense before. but they weren't terrible offenses, even when Aaron Rodgers wasn't putting up big numbers, but they were scoring a ton of rushing touchdowns down towards the goal line. Whereas since Mike McCarthy left, it's been a ton more of Aaron Rodgers passing for touchdowns. So I just, I don't know. I'm not worried about their offense.

I think their offense is a solid bet to be top 12. I just think it's probably 12. Jake, I think you wanted to get in there. Throw one more name in. And now this involves, I just played with my projections and pushed him to a 30% team target share. But if we're going to throw this quarterback's name, we have one of the most popular breakouts from last year and say, Justin Fields is primed to take the next step and become the next Jalen Hurts. I don't think that's probably going to happen. He could get close. I think 80%, 90% Jalen Hurts. But if Justin Fields just got out there and threw 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns, you get 30% of the target share to DJ Moore. He doesn't reach one,

but in my projections, he comes checked in alongside Devontae Adams at wide receiver four. Still not one, but I think there's a world where he potentially finally gets there because he's scoring touchdowns finally, too. All right. We can always leave it on a DJ Moore note. We like that. Before we read our emails, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com, what does it mean, Jake, to be the Susan Lucci of fantasy sports?

This actually was somebody who told it to me as a friend's reference, because it's the friend's reference of always being nominated and never winning. I've been nominated for legitimately FSWA, newcomer, all three fantasy football categories, all three fantasy baseball categories, podcast and sports podcast. Nominated for all of that, like 16 nominations. I've never won a single award. We actually joked on the show over the anti-athletic and said I'll probably get

in the FSW Hall of Fame before I actually win an award. That's where it came from. I mean, look, it's not really a big deal to win an award. Nobody cares about them. Nobody brings them up

or anything like that. I think I have one behind me Congratulations to you guys, by the way. All right. So let's read our emails. Fantasyfootball.cbsi.com. This one comes from Eric.

Dave, where is he from? He is from Reston, Virginia. Grade the trade in a dynasty league. Give up Anthony Richardson for Daniel Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Miles Sanders? Assuming it's not a super flex, and even if it is, I think it's still a win. But if it's not a super flex, that feels like a solid... That feels like an A. Okay.

I mean, I guess Ridley's's old i always forget he's 29 and you know miles sanders is a running back so you can't expect anything beyond the next two years from him but i still think it's a a solid win now move for sure when now i'm glad you said that it was because i'm not a daniel jones person i think most people know that i would call this in non-superflex pretty even. And Superflex, I would actually, I'd take Anthony Richardson. I think I would not have given up Anthony Richardson for that side. You're talking about somebody with a ceiling of top five quarterback.

And that's why I would have kept that. All right. And from Colin, where's he from, Dave? Colin is from Richmond, Washington. Hello, Colin. He says, hey, Adam, hope the Roach situation is under control. It is under control. It's very under control.

10 team, yeah. I mean, what do you mean? It's going to be somebody else's problem soon. No, I mean, it's under control. We got the exterminator. We took care of it. 10 team, six keeper, double flex PPR. I got the exterminator. We took care of it. 10-team, six-keeper, double-flex PPR. I didn't know Remax did exterminating.

All right, Dave. Knock it off. I did get an exterminator. Technically, they do. They get rid of the tenants. Last month. Yes, I'm trying to move, okay? I'm trying to move, hopefully, before football season.

10-team, six-keeper, double-flex PPR league. I have 101. It's going to be Bijan. I'm keeping CeeDee Lamb, Devante Smith, Kyle Pitts, and Tony Pollard. I am pondering offering up DJ Moore and Jamison Williams for Cooper Cup. Would you do it? Hmm. And then he'd be able to keep J. dobbins too so it basically comes down to

dj moore and jameson williams for cup and jk dobbins and i do that yeah i'd easily do that yeah all right and this one comes from johnny two shoes to danny katherine devlin palmer and dolph Danny, Catherine, Devlin, Palmer, and Dolph. I love it. This is one of my guilty pleasures, almost, I would say. Just go with it. Okay. Did you not know that one, Chris? Seemed like you knew that one.

No. No, I was trying to figure it out. Nope. It's a good Adam Sandler movie. 10-team PPR, Dynasty with two flex um i just received this trade request i give up alexander madison and a 2024 first round pick which he very confidently says is going to be between 8 and 10 in a 10 team league uh for derrick henry madison and a 2024 first round pick for Henry. No. Yeah, I wouldn't.

In Dynasty, I never want, I don't want most wide receivers. Usually, I try to get out from wide receivers before they hit 30, because you're missing the window for your max value. Heck, if I want a running back with Derrick Henry's workload in Dynasty at this point. Would you counter with just Alexander Madison? Oh, absolutely. Yeah, if you could do that, because Madison has nothing guaranteed beyond this year. Would you counter with just Alexander Madison? Oh, absolutely. Yeah, if you could do that because Madison has nothing guaranteed beyond this year.

Agreed. 100%. Yeah. What if you countered hold on, hold on. This year. What if you countered with Madison

and a second round pick next year? I'd be okay with that and win that one. I would too. I would be. Yeah. Yep.

Cool. All right, that's it. I really hope that Derrick Henry has another huge season and next year we're like nope not drafted derrick henry fourth round all right uh that's it thank you jake appreciate it man yeah i appreciate it i always love talking with guys fall uh follow him on twitter at all in kid and for dave and chris and jake and our producer thomas i'm adam azar today on the youtube channel youtube.comcom slash fantasyfootballtoday,

we're going to have another Beyond the Box score. I'm not sure when we're going to publish it. Maybe this weekend, maybe on July 4th to get you some content on that day. But for now, talk to you later.