Fantasy Football Today - Top 6 QB Debates! Can Watson Have His Best Season Yet? (06/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 22, 2020

It's a big rankings week here on Fantasy Football Today as we look at the Top 5 at each position. With QB, you really have to discuss the Top 6. Let's take a look at early ADP (2:33) and see how far a...head of the pack Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are before we take a quick detour with some news and notes (8:00). Can Curtis Samuel be a sleeper this season? ... Jackson or Mahomes (12:00)? Let's pick these guys apart and figure out what separates one from the other. Then we'll move on to the next four (23:50). How do we rank Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson? Why does Jamey have Watson as his QB3 even without DeAndre Hopkins? Why does Heath have Prescott in a tier ahead of the other three? Does Dave believe Murray has QB1 upside? ... We finish with some Fill in the Blank (41:30) to sum up our thoughts and to figure out which one of these six QBs we'd like to have lunch with. And what would we eat!? ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Alright, how about this? Based on the last two seasons,
Starting point is 00:00:22 Lamar Jackson is probably going to rush for about 1,000 more yards than Patrick Mahomes. That's 100 fantasy points. Can Patrick Mahomes make up those 100 fantasy points? And who are you taking first overall? We're talking about our top five quarterbacks. It's top five week. Quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends,
Starting point is 00:00:40 and then we'll come up with some quirky top five for Friday's show, I'd say. But we've got five episodes this week, and welcome to Fantasy Football Today. Really, it's a top six because you got four guys after those big two, and we'll try to sort it out. I'm Adam Azer. Happy Father's Day, everybody. Happy belated Father's Day. Dave Richard, Jamie Eisenberg, Heath Cummings are all with me today.
Starting point is 00:01:00 Happy Father's Day to you guys. Did you get any groovy ties this year? No ties. No ties. Did you have any groovy ties this year? No ties. No ties. Did you? Just steaks. I didn't get any gifts for Father's Day. Me either.
Starting point is 00:01:14 I got a book. My kids wrote in a little book. So I guess I got a gift. But yes, nothing that is typical Father's Day stuff, I guess. My 15-year-old gave me a Father's Day card meant for a father getting his first Father's Day stuff, I guess. My 15-year-old gave me a Father's Day card meant for a father getting his first Father's Day. And he wrote, I love you, Daddy, inside. He did this on purpose?
Starting point is 00:01:35 On purpose. Oh, that's good. I like that. Heath, how are you? Fantastic. I disagree with your premise of the very opening of the show. I don't know that we should expect Lamar Jackson to run for 1,000 more yards than Patrick Mahomes. I just said based on the last two seasons, that's what's going to happen.
Starting point is 00:01:54 He was on almost a 1,300-yard pace in his seven starts in 2018, and then he rushed on pace for almost 1300 yards last year I expect he's going to run just a little bit less and Patrick Mahomes was on like almost like a 400 yard pace last year if you count the playoffs and don't count the game that he got hurt if you count the I don't know that's true I don't think that's true you go you go yeah he had a big run in the playoffs remember
Starting point is 00:02:20 I'm supposed to yeah I know Keith just makes this stuff up it's good no it's true okay well look there's going to be a gap to make up there for Patrick Mahomes you guys want some ADP I'll give you a little Father's Day gift
Starting point is 00:02:34 some average draft position on NFC ADP Lamar Jackson 16th overall Patrick Mahomes 17th overall and then a really big gap Kyler Murray round round five. Dak Prescott, round five. They're 55th and 57th, respectively. Russell Wilson, 66th. And Deshaun Watson, 70th. So you got Jackson Mahomes in round two, 16th and 17th overall. Then Kyler and Prescott, mid-round five. Wilson and Watson in round six. Dave, what do you think about that?
Starting point is 00:03:06 Just the gap between the top two and the next four. We've seen it in our mock drafts that those are going to be the first two quarterbacks off the board, and there's going to be a couple of rounds before you see the third quarterback go. And then once that third quarterback go, you start to see more passers by the end of round six you'll see six quarterbacks off the board
Starting point is 00:03:27 that makes me want all the Sean Watson all the time if he's the last one of that six I want whoever's last of that group 100% whether it's Watson Murray Dak Russ who do you want Heath I think I've made that pretty clear like I do think that Watson may
Starting point is 00:03:43 be the better value I think both Mahomes and Jackson are just flat-out bad values here. If they're going in the second round, I'm just not going to get any of them. But I would still say if Dak's going, I kind of just wait until somebody takes the – somebody number three that's not Dak, and then I'll take Dak. Okay. So we'll obviously get into all of these players and talk about how we're ranking them.
Starting point is 00:04:06 The consensus rankings, Mahomes, Jackson, Prescott, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, and Deshaun Watson. That's your top six. But Jamie's got Watson third, right? Yep. It's all different. So it's going to be a fun conversation. One thing that was helpful for me was sort of going through each statistic
Starting point is 00:04:27 and figuring out who's of those four, who's going to have the most passing yards, based on history, most passing touchdown, who rushes the most. I wonder who that's going to be. Well, Murray and Watson were pretty close last year. Jackson? Oh, no, no, no. I just meant the next four. The next four.
Starting point is 00:04:47 Not the first two. Right. Watson, I don't know. Based on history, probably going to have the most rushing touchdowns, five to seven every year based on his base. Anyway, that helped me. Maybe we'll go through that later
Starting point is 00:04:59 if I think it could be helpful for the listeners. Did you guys reference the mock draft we did Thursday on Friday show at all? Yes. No. Yes, we did. Maybe a little. Well, do you want to know how the quarterbacks went there?
Starting point is 00:05:13 Yeah, sure. This is our industry insider draft with all the cool people from the industry. All started. Jackson and Mahomes went in round three, Jackson first. And then it went sorry for the delay went all the way down to round six where it went Kyler Murray
Starting point is 00:05:32 Deshaun Watson Dak Prescott Russell Wilson and Dave took Wilson Heath took Prescott yeah if I could be a little controversial here I can't believe you have Deshaun Watson third Jamie I mean it's it's based on ADP If I could be a little controversial here, I can't believe you have Deshaun Watson third, Jamie. I mean, it's based on ADP,
Starting point is 00:05:49 and obviously our consensus rankings is controversial. I've said it several times here that I think this is going to be his Cam Newton 2015 season where he's going to just go nuts. I think you're going to see his best rushing season ever. He was on pace for over 600 yards rushing his rookie year before he suffered the ACL tear. A lot of his contingent on the health of Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks and those guys
Starting point is 00:06:10 playing probably at least 10 games each, if not more. I know he's had this as his bold prediction. I think that if all these guys play at their best, that he has the chance to be better than all of them. Now, if you're looking at it from all these guys, they have huge ceilings and I think little floors. He probably has the lowest floor. Maybe Kyler does, but I just think that he's going to put it all on him, and I think it's going to end up having a great season. But I don't have a problem if anybody takes kyler dac russell wilson ahead of deshaun watson i i mean they're all so close and
Starting point is 00:06:50 they all have uh the potential to be great but uh for me i just think that this is going to be watson having that mvp caliber season okay come back to that a little bit let's get some news and notes here um i just want to promote a few things. We got Poker Night on Twitch, Tuesday night, 7 p.m. Eastern. Join us. It's going to be a lot of fun. I'm not going to get out early this time.
Starting point is 00:07:13 I'm not going to rush off to put the kids to bed. I'm going to let them stay up really late so I can win again. Tuesday at 7 p.m., twitch.com slash fftoday. Join us. It's hosted by our friends at Faded Spade. Faded Spade Card Club is a new social poker platform offering free play and custom games.
Starting point is 00:07:32 And our URL on Twitch is twitch.com slash fftoday. And we do have five episodes this week, top five at each position, and a mailbag on Friday. You can send us your mailbag questions via Apple Podcast Review or your emails at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. Think about what you guys want to rank on Friday. Could be anything. Podcast hosts.
Starting point is 00:07:54 Don't please no. All right, news and notes. Joe Brady, Carolina's offensive coordinator, pretty high on Curtis Samuel. I say he's going to be a big part of the offense Heath is he going do you believe it what do you think it's hard to believe because
Starting point is 00:08:14 like we got all excited about him and the truth is that looking at his career so far he's just not been very good when people have thrown in the football and part of that could be bad quarterback play and maybe Teddy Bridgewater he should be an upgrade over what he had last year. At least he should see more accurate throws. But he was kind of the only downfield guy last year.
Starting point is 00:08:33 Now they've got Robbie Anderson as well. Anderson, clearly a more established deep threat and wide receiver than Samuel is. So it's really hard to believe. We know he's going to be behind DJ Moore. We know he's going to be behind Christian McCaffrey and then you're chopping up the rest of those targets probably like half the targets are gone now I think one thing that's going to be interesting with him is he'll probably depending on what the preseason looks like he'll have a play or two or something in practice that like we saw last year where they're oh my gosh look what he's able to do
Starting point is 00:09:01 and connecting with Bridgewater and sort of building off what Brady says. And then my guess is I'll have one of those games early in the season because we all expect them to be chasing points and throwing the ball a lot, that he's going to be one of those rush to the waiver wire guys and could have a Sammy Watkins-like season where week one or week two is very good. And then you just keep starting him or hoping or waiting and this is going to happen and blah, blah, blah. He's got a lot of time.
Starting point is 00:09:24 I think he said it, Beth. There's a problem with him, whether it's his consistency or the quarterback play, but he just has not been able to put it all together. But I do think that there's still a chance for him to be somewhat productive, but I don't think he's ever going to be a guy that you feel comfortable starting. Yeah, he might end up being 40 catches for 500 yards and three touchdowns. Role player for the Panthers. All right.
Starting point is 00:09:46 Debo Samuel could be ready for week one. We kind of talked about that, but we also... Most of the conversation was going to be like, he's going to miss some time. We don't know yet. He could be ready for week one. There was a little more optimism. I'd be shocked.
Starting point is 00:10:00 Seriously. Okay. Why rush it with a young receiver for a team that obviously can't afford to give up wins, but you know, the strength of this team is they're rushing in their defense. And, you know, if they have to,
Starting point is 00:10:12 you know, be creative like Kyle Shanahan certainly could. Uh, there was some fun tweets yesterday. If you were following it, Debo Samuel and Raheem most are both tweeting, maybe Des Bryant to the 49ers. Um,
Starting point is 00:10:23 so that's, uh, that's something that, you know that may bubble on the surface, but I'm not drafting Debo Samuel right now. Okay, and then Roger Goodell, he's optimistic about starting the season as scheduled. According to Mike Florio, though, there's less optimism about playing in front of fans right now.
Starting point is 00:10:43 We know what's happening. A lot of players testing positive in baseball and college football and NFL, and they're just going to have to figure out what to do about it. And you know what? Why speculate? It's June 22nd. We got time. Let's see what happens.
Starting point is 00:10:57 So no Drew Brees for you, right? You're still out. In what? Why? Because the fans, no fans. I think,
Starting point is 00:11:02 I think it's gonna make a difference. I don't make a difference. I don't know what difference. I think that playing without fans, if that happens, Heath left us and now is coming back. So you hear the Zoom sounds. It's going to change things. I don't know what the impact will be. I'm not making any fantasy adjustments.
Starting point is 00:11:24 But if they play football without fans, it's just going to be different somehow. Is it fans or is it noise? Because if they do pump in crowd noise... I think it's fans. It's energy. But do they pump in the crowd noise on the broadcast or into the stadium?
Starting point is 00:11:35 I don't know. Yeah. I don't know if they're going to... And what are they doing with... Is it wherever they're playing baseball right now? Aren't they putting in cardboard people in the seats? Yeah, I saw that in Korea yeah they had some
Starting point is 00:11:47 funny stuff there and I actually don't really know if they I feel like they haven't had any issues there but they also didn't have the same type of viral spread in South Korea obviously all right well we'll see what happens hi Heath
Starting point is 00:12:02 Heath would you like to hear about my terrible twitter polls i would love to hear about anything terrible you did feels like felt like that answer was coming all right i did two twitter polls uh five point per passing touchdown league i did that on purpose who do you prefer patrick mahomes or lamar jackson this one was terrible because it was so one-sided. I was surprised. Patrick Mahomes got 80% of the vote. Five points for passing touchdown league. 80% said Patrick Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:12:32 Who would you take? Yeah, I would take Lamar Jackson in four points, but in five, I'm looking here, I've got nine. Yeah, I would still take Mahomes by about 5% in terms of projections. So I think that 80% are correct. So how do we feel about this Mahomes versus Jackson debate? Where are we? Yes.
Starting point is 00:12:59 Everyone's Mahomes. Every one of us. I think we're the only probably consensus site. I think most people are still favoring Jackson over Mahomes. Every one of us. I think we're the only probably consensus site. I think most people are still favoring Jackson over Mahomes. Well, I think that I don't know if we clarified this or if everyone who drafts with us just knows this.
Starting point is 00:13:15 There's also most of the other sites are not six points per pass touchdown. So, do all of you take Jackson in four points per passing touchdown leagues? Yes. I think you have to. And he's already said he does.
Starting point is 00:13:31 Based on the nature of his game and how many more points he's worth because of it. Can we have this discussion? Let's talk about them and what... They basically had similar fantasy point totals when Mahomes in 2018 and Jackson 2019. Jackson, his 2019 season was a little bit better than Mahomes' big season in four point. And it was the opposite in six point, whatever. But they had similar fantasy point totals. No, Jackson was better in both.
Starting point is 00:14:00 Points per game. Oh, you know what? You're right because he only played 15 games. Right. All right, but let's talk it out. Tell me why you guys are on the Mahomes side, at least in the five-point and six-point leagues. I think it's something we've said time and time again,
Starting point is 00:14:18 that there's going to be some, if not severe, regression for Jackson in some big categories. You know, the passing touchdowns, the rate that he was on, you know, 36 touchdowns. Is that replicable? Obviously the rushing, you know, I think it was this, including the three guys last year, there were 25 guys in the last 20 years or whatever it is. I have to go back and reference it, but that have rushed, you know, for 500 or more yards. And obviously they've all,
Starting point is 00:14:45 or the majority of them have come down. He's, it's almost impossible for him to rush for what he rushed for last year again. So where's the, where's the line, you know, is it, is he going from 1200 yards to 800 yards? Is he going to, you know, 1200 to a thousand, you know, I mean, it's that, that drop off could be the difference. Now is Mahomes throwing for 50 touchdowns again? I don't think so, but he could probably be 5,000 yards again. You know, what we're seeing in the NFL is that that's not as difficult a number to
Starting point is 00:15:14 achieve as we've seen. So, you know, if he's over 5,000 passing yards and he can get 40 plus touchdowns, I think he's just a little bit safer than what Lamar Jackson is. And then you factor out Russian quarterbacks have done, and they tend to get hurt more often than not. So I think he's amazing. I wouldn't be surprised if he's number one again. I just feel a little bit safer for me, at least with Mahomes. Could I throw something out there?
Starting point is 00:15:37 That's what this space is for. This kind of came to me here. So I think we'd all agree that Mahomes is more likely to repeat close to what he did. Like Jamie said, like 5,000 passing yards, 40 touchdowns than what Lamar Jackson did in a normal year. Do you think it's going to be to Lamar Jackson's advantage that all the teams that he's going to play this year can't have their players practicing on the field during the offseason will have a strange type of training camp. Are they going to be, are defenses in general going to be as prepared as they might be at least
Starting point is 00:16:22 early in the season because they didn't go through the type of workouts all offseason. And what I'm thinking is it might be easier now for Lamar Jackson to keep doing what he's doing because defenses just weren't able to put in the time to game plan for him like they would have in a normal offseason. I'll just say a couple things. One, I think if anybody's getting a boost from the fact that we didn't get to have a normal offseason, it would be Mahomes because he has basically
Starting point is 00:16:51 his entire offense back. There's complete continuity with that group. And yeah, they added to it as well. But he has everyone back. There should be no confusion with the Chiefs offense. Well, there's only one, though, big loss for the Ravens, though. Is there? Yeah, Yonda.
Starting point is 00:17:08 Yonda's the biggest loss. Hurst is a little loss in the grand scheme of things. Yeah, I was like, Hurst? Okay, Yonda. Yeah. But then also, it's not just... I don't know that opposing defenses have that much to do with it. Jamie referenced the regression.
Starting point is 00:17:23 He had the third highest touchdown rate ever for a season. He's going to lose 10 to 12 touchdowns if he throws the same number of passes. And he's almost certain to not run as much or for as many yards. His yards per carry were like 33% higher last year than they were the year before. So like defenses could do the exact same thing. And I just don't think Lamar Jackson's going to be as good. I think though, Dave, to your, to your point though, unless they're facing the Ravens that week,
Starting point is 00:17:51 they're not putting in any sort of install to stop Lamar Jackson. So like I talked to TJ Watt at the pro bowl about this for the story that's in our magazine and it's on our site too, if you want to read it. And so I asked him, I asked Stefan Gilmore, who was defensive player of the year, you know, what, what's it like to try and stop somebody who's changed the game. And, you know, Gilmore said these type of things, you know, you catch up to them and TJ
Starting point is 00:18:13 Watt. And remember the Steelers only team to hold him to under 20 fantasy points in play them in the final week of the season. That's the game he missed. And TJ Watt said, that's our biggest goal because that's the team they have to get by to win a division. So whatever they're doing to work on the Ravens, it's all probably in the classroom anyway. And so I would imagine that those conversations are being had on some linebacker meetings, you know, defensive coordinator and defensive line meetings. You know, so to your point, I think it's valid that, you valid that it may not be the same, but those conversations are probably being had on a different level, as opposed to here's our install of our defense. Steelers know what their defense is. So it's okay, let's work on the Browns for a week. Let's work on
Starting point is 00:18:57 the Ravens for a week. That probably has happened. And it's probably been the same type of work that it would have been anyway. I would imagine that every team in the afc north their first goal was how do we slow down lamar jackson right but in terms of like what the offseason prep would be i don't think it would be on the field and camp you know there may have been a mini camp thing that they would be it would be it would be all the above yeah but but most of those things are not like you know it's not like they're going to say okay you go play scout team now and run lamar jackson um you don't think that happens in the offseason minicamps uh you know i might it might but i don't think it's it's like that's going to be the difference of is he good or is he bad you know it's it's it's not something like you know while teams are prepping for stuff like
Starting point is 00:19:37 that that's not something that they're putting install in for now i guarantee you the texans are looking hard at lamar jackson because they play him in week two kansas city is looking hard at lamar jackson they play him in week three. Kansas City is looking hard at Lamar Jackson. They play him in week three. I'm wondering if that does make a difference. And maybe that's just something that I should talk about with some people who played defense in the NFL and who have actually been there. And I will do that. The other question that I had was who's easier to defend. And it's a crazy question because they're both really hard to defend.
Starting point is 00:20:03 But if you had to pick which one is easier to defend, who would you say? Mahomes is easier to defend. Right. So I think that, again, that just kind of plays into this philosophy that I'm just thinking about, whether or not it makes a difference this year because teams don't have the type of offseason that they normally have to try and put something together to slow down an opponent. Because that's part of the basis of our argument, right? Regression for Lamar Jackson.
Starting point is 00:20:26 He had this crazy year. Of course, he'll come down a little bit from those numbers, but is he going to come? Is he going to crash to earth? Or is it going to be just a little bit because of the situation that everybody's in? And I'm not as certain about the Mahomes is easier to defend.
Starting point is 00:20:38 Oh, neither of them are easy to defend. I'm not willing to give an answer to that question. You have your choice of pocket passer versus guy that can escape. You'd rather pay the guy, face the guy that stays in the pocket. I would think so. I mean, I talked to guys about this. You know, when I did the story on Mahomes two years ago,
Starting point is 00:20:51 they all said the way to stop him, Calais Campbell, Chris Harris, you know, Eric Weddle. What's the key? Keep him inside. You know, you don't want him moving. The last thing you want to do is see him outside the pocket, him specifically. But I think anytime you're going to get a quarterback that moves,
Starting point is 00:21:04 you'd much rather face a guy who's going to sit back there you know where he is well yeah my home's pretty mobile they're they're nightmares they're nightmares um i think we all would agree that my homes you have to say maybe maybe jackson changes our mind with another big year but my homes is is a better player right i mean it's probably the best player in football. I think, what was it, ESPN just did a, if you were drafting players now, forget about the NFL draft. Everybody's
Starting point is 00:21:34 redrafting the league. Mahomes has definitely won. Mahomes was one, but I think Russell Wilson was two. I don't think Jackson went until three or four. In that same thing, wasn't Drew Locke like 18 or something? I think a lot of the quarterbacks went early, you know, so it's not necessarily, like,
Starting point is 00:21:51 I think Aaron Donald was the first non-quarterback. But should we consider that when you're, if you're sitting there, you're going, hmm, Jackson Mahomes, Jackson Mahomes. Well, you know, Mahomes is, he's amazing. He has a chance to be a legend, and maybe Jackson does too, but I don't know if we're there yet because Cam Newton has not been anywhere near as good as he was
Starting point is 00:22:09 when he had his 35 touchdown, or his 45 total touchdown season as MVP in 2015. Like, Mahomes just feels safer to me because I know Andy Reid is the best. Mahomes is unbelievable. There are not enough words to describe how good he is. And maybe Jackson's just a little bit more, a little bit away from being in that same sentence.
Starting point is 00:22:35 He just needs to prove a little bit more. We don't have the sample size. We've seen guys do Mahomes, produce what Mahomes has done time and again. Drew Brees has done it you know Marino to a certain extent Peyton Manning to a certain extent you know I mean these guys that are elite level throwers elite level passers now Jackson can get there but like the the 2006 Michael Vick season we didn't get a chance to see what he would have done the next year because of, you know, his, his, his off the field transgression.
Starting point is 00:23:06 I think for Jackson, if he goes 3000 and 1000 again, and that's something that he can maybe do for another couple of years, if not get better, then it's a different conversation because then you're seeing a different level of, of a player, not just a quarterback. I mean, he's, he's amazing. So I think you said it best, Adam. Both these guys are nightmares. They're fun for fantasy. If you're so inclined that you have to take a quarterback early in round two, and you're that fantasy manager, it's the same thing we said about the other four. You just take the second guy, and I think you should be happy about it.
Starting point is 00:23:45 All right. So that will cover those two. The next four. Here is the second terrible Twitter poll. I figured that I host a fantasy show. I figured everybody would interpret this as a fantasy question. I don't think they did. So this is probably a useless Twitter poll.
Starting point is 00:24:01 But assuming Mahomes and Jackson are the top two, who's your number three QB? I posted this right after I posted the five point per passing touchdown league question, Mahomes versus Jackson. So I thought, you know, it's obviously a fantasy question. The comments I got seemed to show some confusion,
Starting point is 00:24:17 but Russell Wilson, 35% of the vote. Deshaun Watson, 24.7%. Dak Prescott, 23.6%. Kyler Watson, 24.7%, Dak Prescott, 23.6%, Kyler Murray, 16.7%. I don't think that this is a fantasy rankings question.
Starting point is 00:24:30 I think people are asking, or people are saying that Wilson is the best quarterback of this group. Yep. So forget that. Let's talk three, four, five, six. Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson.
Starting point is 00:24:43 I want to hear you guys debate right after this quick break. Ooh, what a tease. On Fantasy Football today. We'll be right back. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone
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Starting point is 00:26:00 latte, the cinnamony pumpkin flavored legend, or the new iced apple crisp non-dairy chai. So silky, so smooth. How about the new pecan crunch oat latte? Nutty, buttery deliciousness and crunchy pecan flavor. Trick question, of course. It's the last call for fall, so don't miss out on your fall faves. Next stop, Starbucks. Dave Richard, kick it off. 3, 4, 5, 6 in the QB rankings. How do you do it? Dak is number three for me. Russell Wilson is number four.
Starting point is 00:26:32 Kyler Murray is number five. Deshaun Watson is number six. And I don't mean to slight Deshaun by putting him at six, but new receivers, big problems. Jamie, quite different. Yeah, it's Watson, Dak, Wilson, Murray? Yes. And Heath?
Starting point is 00:26:55 Yeah, for me, it's Dak, Wilson, Watson, Murray. And I've got Dak like almost a tier ahead of those guys. Kyler and Deshaun pretty much the same other than I think obviously Watson's floor to me looks higher than Murray's. We've seen him be a good fantasy quarterback. I want to feel better about Deshaun. I really do.
Starting point is 00:27:19 Yeah, let me just say that one key takeaway is that nobody has Dak Prescott lower than fourth. He's third for Dave and Heath. He's fourth for Jamie. And Heath said he's a tier ahead of the others. Now, Dave, I'm sorry to interrupt you. Go ahead. No, I said what I needed to say.
Starting point is 00:27:33 I wish I could feel better about Deshaun. I almost want to be soothed on this podcast. Like right now, coddle me and hold me in your arms and tell me that Deshaun Watson is going to be the third best quarterback. Let me know how it's going to play out because with Cooks and Fuller as his top two guys, I don't quite see it. I don't think he's finished top three yet. For the record, in 2017, his rookie season,
Starting point is 00:27:57 he was the best quarterback on a per-game basis. 2018 and 2019, I have him as QB5 both years. So now you're taking away DeAndre Hopkins. You have a team that doesn't pass the ball all that much. And all of a sudden, he's going to have his best finish? Really? I think so.
Starting point is 00:28:20 Well, was he... He was probably top three or four on a per-game basis last year, right? Because he only played 15 games? I think he was fourth. We'll confirm right now. And I mostly agree with everything Jamie's saying about Watson, except for I can't get him.
Starting point is 00:28:37 He's right in that same range with Wilson. I've got ahead of Murray. I can't get him to Dak's level, but I do think that we should expect he's going to set career highs and pass attempts, pass yards, and maybe even pass touchdowns. How come?
Starting point is 00:28:52 Because I don't, I think the Texas might be the worst Texans defense they've had since he became a part of the team. And I think like, yes, they're not having DeAndre Hopkins is terrible, but he has as deep a set of weapons in the passing game as just about any quarterback.
Starting point is 00:29:11 Both of his running backs are excellent in that area. Brandon Cooks, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, Randall Cobb. You may not like those guys, particularly in fantasy, but there's an enormous amount of talent and speed there. His offensive line should be better too. I mean, you know, they've been building it for the last two years, rebuilding it for the last two years. So I just, again, I could totally get behind anybody taking Dak Prescott,
Starting point is 00:29:35 Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray ahead of him. I completely understand it. I just think if they all get to what their ceilings could be, and we saw Dak's ceiling last year. I don't know if Dak's going to be better than what he was last year, but he can certainly replicate that. And Russell Wilson, I,
Starting point is 00:29:47 you know, to me, Russell Wilson is kind of the swing and all this, because if Seattle does let him get his way and they play more up tempo and throw the ball more, he's going to be probably challenging the top two guys. He has that type of potential if his receivers stay healthy, but I just think that Watson will probably run more than those other four
Starting point is 00:30:06 guys because he's going to have to, I think he's gonna score more rushing touchdowns. You've already laid that out. Adam, you think he's going to, you think he's going to have more rushing guards than Kyler Murray? I do. Okay.
Starting point is 00:30:15 I do. Cause I think Kyler will run less because it'll be within like a hundred yards. I hope so. I mean, I hope so for Kyler's sake, if, if Deshaun does what I think he's going to do.
Starting point is 00:30:22 Cause like I said, he was on pace for over 600 yards rushing in his rookie season before the ACL tear. I just think also schematically how I see this offense operating with all these guys running downfield, there's going to be a lot of rushing lanes open, you know, when, when the pocket breaks down for him, because if this offense is operating like that, then he's going to have a lot of lanes to run through. So I think he's going to have, that's kind of the, the, the me as I think his rushing is going to get to a, not to a Lamar Jackson level, but I think he could be
Starting point is 00:30:49 in the 700-yard rushing range. I wouldn't be surprised. It wouldn't be a surprise if he led the Texans in rushing with 700 yards too because David Johnson has three concerns and he hasn't looked,
Starting point is 00:30:59 he looked solid in the first half of last year with Arizona. And then when he came back from injury and Kenyon Drake was already there and you know, maybe you could say he couldn't get into a rhythm or something like that, but he just,
Starting point is 00:31:10 he didn't look good. And if he's not, and I said all along, I'm going to wait until training camp to really get an idea of what David Johnson is. If he's not running well and they they're clearly not going to give Duke Johnson the lead role because they didn't do it last year when Carlos Hyde was the guy. That's crazy that they went with Hyde then.
Starting point is 00:31:29 I would take odds on Deshaun Watson being the leading rusher for the Texans this year. I think that would be an interesting bet to make, and I think it's very possible he could finish as the leading rusher there. And I think that's what would have to happen for Deshaun Watson to finish as a top three fantasy quarterback. You would need David Johnson to stink. You would need Duke Johnson to not have a big role in the run game.
Starting point is 00:31:49 And Deshaun Watson would just take off and have all those opportunities that James was talking about. I just wish he had a different coach. They were 32nd in defense in 2017. They were the worst defensive team in the league. They were 23rd in pass attempts. That's horrible. Well, I mean, that's the new offensive coordinator. He also didn't play the whole season.
Starting point is 00:32:12 Yeah, I'm just saying, it's just in Bill O'Brien's nature. I mean, are you going to let the backups that year throw the ball that much? You have to if you have the worst defense in football, don't you? It's just Bill O'Brien's nature is not to be a pass-happy team. Yeah, but his points per game that year were the best in fantasy. Yeah, he was unbelievable as a rookie. He hasn't been quite as good. He hasn't had a 30-touchdown
Starting point is 00:32:34 pass season since two years. Yeah, he would have had a 43-touchdown pass season that year or something like that. That's the guy I'm expecting. Honestly. I mean, you know, it's lofty expectations. I totally get that. But I'm at. Honestly. I mean, you know, it's lofty expectations. I totally get that. But I'm at this position. I mean, you've heard me say this for years.
Starting point is 00:32:50 I'm going to draft for who I think has the highest ceiling. And after the top two guys, I think he has the highest ceiling. He has a higher ceiling? Because I think Kyler Murray is going third in ADP because people think he has that ceiling.
Starting point is 00:33:03 And I sort of agree. He does. But I think Watson, if they both play their best, I think Watson has that ceiling. And I sort of agree. He does. But I think Watson, if they both play their best, I think Watson will be better. I also think, like I said before, Watson and Murray have the lowest floors of these guys. Yeah. And like you were saying,
Starting point is 00:33:17 we think Kyler Murray has that type of upside. That's why he's being drafted number three. And I wouldn't even disagree with it, but we can only think it. We've seen that type of upside from Deshaun Watson for a half a season. We've barely mentioned DeAndre Hopkins. Is that not a big deal? It's a huge
Starting point is 00:33:32 deal. I don't know how big a deal it is. His yards per attempt, DeAndre Hopkins are pretty close to his career yards per attempt. He made up 30% of Deshaun Watson's career stats. Because it was 30% of his pass attempts. It should be if he was better, he's throwing the Because it was 30% of his pass attempts. Like it should be, if he was better,
Starting point is 00:33:49 he's throwing the ball to him 33% of the time, he should take up at least 30% of his stats. And part of this downside potential for Watson is you're counting on his two top receivers. One is coming off, I think it's what, five concussions? Three noted ones last year? Three last year? Two. Three last year? Two reported.
Starting point is 00:34:08 And then there was the one. And then you have Will Fuller who can't say all these. That's a huge risk. It's a huge, huge risk. I totally get it. He should be going sixth. You're a risky guy to put him third. Well, again, if I miss on what his upside could be,
Starting point is 00:34:26 I may fall into Daniel Jones, or I may fall into Roethlisberger, or maybe Stafford, depending on how this all goes. I'm not saying that guy in particular. I'm saying that type of player. Yeah, but I guess the question is like... Did you take Deshaun Watson? No, but I mean, Stafford was undrafted
Starting point is 00:34:43 for the most part last year. Jameis was not drafted as a top 12 quarterback. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Holmes last two years were drafted as top 12 quarterback. So, but they were drafted, but they were drafted. They were drafted.
Starting point is 00:34:53 You're not going to, you're not a draft. Sean Watson, but take nobody else and then pick up, you know, Daniel Jones, Brian Tannehill, who was,
Starting point is 00:35:00 I can pick up Gardner Minshew. I can pick up Brian Tannehill, who was the seventh best quarterback or the second best quarterback after week seven. This is the position that you swing for the fences on. Okay. So, by the way, speaking of Matthew Stafford, looked up points per game. Deshaun Watson was actually second in points per game in four point per passing touchdown leagues, minus one for interceptions in this scoring that I'm looking at.
Starting point is 00:35:21 He was fifth in points per game in six points per passing touchdown leagues. Stafford was second, Breeze third, Prescott, then Watson, then Wilson. Very, very bunched together, though. All of them way behind Lamar Jackson. And Watson was fourth last year, though, right? In total points? I am his fifth.
Starting point is 00:35:38 Yes. But probably very close, fourth or fifth. Let me see. Oh, you know what? Tied with Jameis Winston for fourth. So I'll make that change. And six point per pass is touchdown. Okay, but I don't want to make this all about...
Starting point is 00:35:52 I see 371 and a half to 371. Watson head. Oh, okay. All right. So we'll give it to Watson. I don't want to make this all about Deshaun Watson, but you're talking about his upside. Does every quarterback in that group of four have
Starting point is 00:36:06 a lead upside? I feel like the answer is yes. Don't they all have... You're right about Murray Heath, but this is a high upside group. I don't know why Watson would have much more upside than the others, I guess is what I'm saying. Well, Heath referenced it.
Starting point is 00:36:21 We saw it in 2017. He could be the best quarterback in fantasy if that guy shows up again. Who finished number one that year, by the way? Huh? Who finished number one that year? He did. Who did?
Starting point is 00:36:32 Watson. No, not per game, for the season. In 2017? Russell. Russell. Yeah. It was one of the weakest QB1 seasons. It was pre-Schottenheimer, too, right?
Starting point is 00:36:43 Yeah, that was. Yeah. 17. Well, he, I'll ask you this because you love Prescott. Is, is,
Starting point is 00:36:49 is he going to be better than he was last year? I don't think he's probably going to be better than he was last year, but he's like, he had the elite upside that we're looking for. And all these other guys last year, if he matches what he did last year, that's the elite upside that you're looking for. Um,
Starting point is 00:37:04 I do think that while he's probably going to regress a little bit, anytime somebody puts up those types of numbers, that should be the expectation. What Kellen Moore did with the offense and the fact that they added CeeDee Lamb to this mix, I'm just not so sure he's not just going to be that good again. And there is a little bit of room in terms of touchdowns. When we talk about Lamar Jackson throwing 36 touchdown passes on 400 and some attempts, he had 30 touchdown passes on almost 600 attempts. That's pretty close to average.
Starting point is 00:37:33 So it is possible that Dak's passing touchdowns could come up a little bit. And if there was one other place, I think he was at six rushing touchdowns per year every year before last year. Yep. So the rushing touchdowns could come up a little bit as well. The passing yards are probably going to year before last year. Yep. So the rushing touchdowns could come up a little bit as well.
Starting point is 00:37:46 The passing yards are probably going to come backwards a little. Yep. Any of these guys make you nervous? Like, avoid. Don't want them at all. Oh, no. I mean, Watson makes me the most nervous,
Starting point is 00:38:00 but I would still absolutely take him if he's the last man standing of the group. I don't think I will get any Kyler Murray this year. And it's not like, I, I do think he's an excellent breakout candidate. And I think that like,
Starting point is 00:38:13 there's some serious upside there, but he never seems to be the last one, at least in the drafts that I'm in that's taken amongst this group. And so I'm not going to take him over any of the other guys. Okay. How about, let's talk about Russell Wilson a little bit and how you guys feel about him, Dave? He's awesome.
Starting point is 00:38:32 I think that's been proven. I don't know if I need to give statistical evidence as to how awesome he is, but 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns is something that you can feel pretty comfortable expecting from him, along with some decent rushing numbers. And all the talk, and we've already talked about on this podcast, is Russell Wilson going
Starting point is 00:38:52 to be able to have more control of the offense? Well, if Seattle is smart, there will be games where he does have control of the offense. And you want to talk about defenses that are going to struggle this year. I think Seattle's defense is in rough shape. I think they're in worse shape than the Texans defense, which means Russ is going to have to come to the rescue again. And those fourth quarter points are massive for him in fantasy. He might have 18 fantasy points through three and a half quarters.
Starting point is 00:39:17 And then by the end of the game, he's at 30. And he's a master back there and totally see him with QB one potential. If Mahomes has a year like last year and if Lamar Jackson does get figured out. Okay. So the safest of this group of the four. Yeah. Because he's done it time and time again.
Starting point is 00:39:39 Right. Yeah. And I mean, last year he was half a point behind Dak, as great as Dak was in points per game. And he was blowing Dak away before Lockett's injury. He was the number one quarterback in fantasy. He was MVP candidate in the NFL. And let's just look at where he's finished the last five seasons,
Starting point is 00:40:00 Russell Wilson. Five years, it's basically when he started putting up more prolific passing numbers. You know, 4,100 yards, 31 to 35 touchdown passes in four of those five seasons. Well, I don't have it in front of me now, but I think it's top four three times. Sorry. Top four three times. And two bad seasons.
Starting point is 00:40:22 One of them was with the ankle. And then one of them was 2018 where he threw like, how many passes did he throw? Like 450 passes, something like that. They were the lowest passing team in the NFL. That's the thing you fear with him. Yeah. How much do we fear that?
Starting point is 00:40:39 I think you fear that and there's a little bit of risk that he's going to be 32 years old this year. Is that right? And last year was his second lowest rushing total. So I think there's a little bit of risk that some more of that rushing disappears and they don't throw. But I agree with Dave mostly that their defense probably isn't going to be good enough to be as run heavy as they would like. I don't think Pete Carroll cares about that, though. I think he trusts himself to turn this defense around at some point, whether it's early in the season or if they're struggling early to do it by the middle of the season. That's the biggest thing is what their philosophy is going to be because if they open things up, he's going to be amazing. He's got his best probably top two receivers that he's ever had
Starting point is 00:41:23 if Metcalf builds off what he did last year and you know olsen if they get disley back that'll stabilize that position and you know who knows what they do with you know throw into their backs out of the backfield if something changes maybe with travis homer being a little bit more involved or they throw the ball to carson eventually uh but man he could be so unbelievable if he gets the DAC 596 pass attempts or he has the I'm going to run a little bit more, take on a little bit of a younger mentality that he had. I just think he's the safest of this group.
Starting point is 00:41:56 He's shown it before. He can do it on low volume. You'll have some potential risk if the touchdowns aren't there because of whatever they decided to do in the red zone. If he's anywhere north of 550 pass attempts, I'll feel pretty happy about Russell Wolfe.
Starting point is 00:42:14 That would be really good. Let's do some fill in the blank here and see if we can sum up our feelings on this group. Top five quarterback I'm avoiding based on ADP. I think you probably already answered that. Remember, it's Jackson and Mahomes, 16th and 17th.
Starting point is 00:42:31 Murray in round five. Prescott two picks later. Wilson and Watson in round six. Top five quarterback I'm avoiding based on ADP is blank. Kyler. Kyler. Jackson. Can I give you one note on Kyler with the Cardinals?
Starting point is 00:42:46 Yeah. Just that is a little interesting. They were, for the season, they were 18th in rush attempts at 24.8 rush attempts per game. In the final three games of the season when Drake was rolling, they were running the ball 30.7 times.
Starting point is 00:43:04 Well, Drake had like 22 or more carries. Drake was rolling, they were running the ball 30.7 times. Well, Drake had like 22 or more carries. Drake was awesome. And if they can run the ball like that, even with Hopkins, I wonder if they'll still be as pass happy. They're like any team. If they can run the ball against a given opponent, they will. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:21 But six carries a game is a lot. It's a big jump. Okay. Next fill in the blank. The top five quarterback with the best ADP is, Six carries a game is a lot. It's a big jump. Okay. Next day. Next fill in the blank. The top five quarterback with the best ADP is, I'll just say, you know what?
Starting point is 00:43:31 Top six quarterback. I'm just going to say top six, top six quarterback with the best ADP. Looking to see who's last. It's Deshaun Watson at 70th. I'll say Deshaun Watson. I'll say Dak. But David, he's only four picks behind Russell Wilson.
Starting point is 00:43:46 Do you like Watson? If I'm getting him last of the group, I feel like I'm coming out ahead on draft day. But if you're in the round where you're taking a quarterback, you're taking Wilson over Watson if they're four picks apart. Right. Yeah. Right.
Starting point is 00:43:58 So if I'm making that decision, yes. But if Wilson goes ahead of him, what if I'm in those four picks after? What if Wilson goes earlier than that? Sure, it depends on where you're talking. The top six quarterback with the least upside is blank. That I might say Kyler for. Because I think every quarterback that we've talked about has immense upside.
Starting point is 00:44:22 But I'm worried about Kyler finishing as like a top, breaking into that top two i think the highest he could get is third i'm gonna say wilson i don't like this like there's no answer here i'd feel good about it i'm gonna say wilson all right jamie least upside i think he said the best there's no answer that you feel good about with this but i think i'm gonna agree with dave that it's Kyler just because I think he could take a step forward and improve from 3,700 passing
Starting point is 00:44:50 yards and 20 touchdowns and be 40 and 24,025 and be better and be in the top five range but still fall short of expectation overall I think having one of these top six quarterbacks on my team is blank awesome rad okay Having one of these top six quarterbacks on my team is blank. Rad.
Starting point is 00:45:08 Okay. Super good. If I could grab lunch with one of these quarterbacks, it would be blank, and we would eat blank. It would be Mahomes, and we would get the big sloppy cheeseburger from Charm City. You were so close, Dave. It would be Mahomes, and it would be Joe's Kansas City Barbecue. Russell Wolf?
Starting point is 00:45:37 No. Sean Watson. Of course. What would you eat with him? Whatever Sean wants. I'd cook dinner for him. Whatever Sean wants. Houston Barbecue, wherever you take him. Okay. Dillon's. It would you eat with him? Whatever Deshaun wants. I'd cook dinner for him. Whatever Deshaun wants. Houston barbecue, wherever you take him. Okay.
Starting point is 00:45:46 Dillon's. It would obviously be... I don't know. I think Lamar Jackson would talk about South Florida a little bit. We have that in common. And we'd get Anthony's Coal Fire Pizza because somebody has to eat Anthony's Coal Fire Pizza. I got the chance at the Super Bowl to interview Dak Prescott.
Starting point is 00:46:02 He was doing his interviews for Oikos, the yogurt, in a separate room. He wasn't doing it on Radio Row. And so while we were setting up and then while we were tearing down all of our camera equipment, I got a chance to talk to him for quite a bit. And he's awesome.
Starting point is 00:46:18 So had I not had that experience, I probably would change my answer. But after talking to him, he told me some funny stuff about, you know, I was asking about Dan Mullen because he played for mullen at mississippi state and and obviously i i like the gators so we were talking about that and he had some some fun anecdotes that i will not share because he asked me not to but um uh it was uh it was fun just give us like one of the ones that you're not allowed to share. He said, I listen to a fantasy show and the host... I won't finish it.
Starting point is 00:46:48 Okay, thank you. We know where it's going. Good discussion here. We'll talk about running backs on the Tuesday show. Who's your top five, Adam? Mahomes, Jackson. Mahomes, Jackson. Watson's six for sure.
Starting point is 00:47:05 I'd go... Wilson, Kyler, Prescott. Wow. And I don't even know if I'd have Deshaun Watson's six. Who would be six? In a four-point per pass in the National League, I 100% would. You know, I would think about Matt Ryan. I do like Josh Allen. I would think about Matt Ryan. I do like Josh Allen. I can't really justify Allen.
Starting point is 00:47:29 I guess it's Watson. But I'm not drafting him. Put it that way. I have no idea. Heath, I'm curious what you have it projected for. I had a tough decision in a draft that I am playing out for another magazine. Russell Wilson versus Josh Allen
Starting point is 00:47:44 and four points for passing. I am playing out for another magazine. Russell Wilson versus Josh Allen, four points for passing. I have Josh Allen, five points better in that format. Yeah, it was tough. I took Russell Wilson just from the safety factor. Oh, for sure, yeah. But I struggled with it.
Starting point is 00:47:59 I struggled, and Allen went right, I think maybe three or four picks after I took Russell Wilson. Allen is agonizing for me. There's so much to like and so much not to like. He's agonizing for me. But he's like Jameis. His fantasy production versus his real life, how he plays, I think sort of differ a little bit.
Starting point is 00:48:21 He could be just an amazing fantasy quarterback if things click for him. Yeah, but he also could be just an amazing fantasy quarterback if things click for him. Yeah, but he also could be a really good regular quarterback. He's going into his third year where the book isn't written on him. I don't care about his completion percentage for his fantasy production. What is more likely in the next three years?
Starting point is 00:48:38 Josh Allen is the number one quarterback in fantasy in any format or Josh Allen is no longer a starting quarterback? The first one. Well, Heath, at one point, were you taking Allen over Murray? I did have Allen over me, and I would in a four-point-per-pass touchdown league. I think I have them dead even. But I'm also a little bit more skeptical of Murray, I think, too. I just think that the range of outcomes for Josh Allen,
Starting point is 00:49:05 we haven't really learned very much yet. He's not good enough as a passer right now to, I think, be a starter throughout his second contract. So he's going to have to make a leap either this year or next year. Oh, I would disagree. If they continue to win, I think he's going to get his second contract in a big, big way. So there's no way.
Starting point is 00:49:25 I just don't see how he scores as many rushing touchdowns. I think Dave has outlined that beautifully about how inefficient Frank Gore was. And he took Josh Allen's advantage. He could still get five or six. Yeah, he could. Even with that inefficiency gone. Well, that's a topic for another show. Let me read some emails here.
Starting point is 00:49:42 Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. Before you do that, what's Allen's ADP? Alright, let me read the email and I'll get back to you. Dear Phillip, Frank, Tom, and Bruce. Those are quarterbacks with their head coaches.
Starting point is 00:49:58 All of whom are quarterbacks. Phillip Rivers and Frank Reich, Tom Brady and Bruce Arians. I know that the play caller massively impacts fantasy production based on tendencies, but you always talk about the same principle with quarterbacks and their preferences. Which one of the two should we trust the most in situations like the Colts and the Bucs this year? Should we trust the tendencies of those play callers or the preferences of the experienced quarterbacks coming in?
Starting point is 00:50:20 I've thought about that a lot lately because I'm going to get started on a story on the Bucs and their offense and what it might look like. And I think that when it comes to game planning, the coaches are going to have one set of details. And then the quarterback on the field is going to ultimately make the decisions because he's the one throwing the ball. And I would imagine that it does. I think the quarterback probably has. I think I would trust that tendency a little bit more than the play caller. Both Byron Lefkowitz and Bruce Arians have said they're going to allow Tom Brady to have his imprint on this offense. I would be shocked if they ever said that about Jameis
Starting point is 00:50:55 Winston or said that to Jameis Winston. And Reich and Rivers have a history together. So I would imagine that, you know, he's going to allow Rivers to have some input as well. But the quarterback, I think in this case, when you're talking about guys at that level and what they've accomplished, they're going to sort of change, I think, some of those stubborn ways of certainly Bruce Arians and maybe even Frank Reich. But to that being said, I'm pretty sure Brady is going to feel a lot more comfortable throwing long.
Starting point is 00:51:23 Like, I don't know how much of... Oh, he's not walking in and saying, I'm throwing five-yard passes 60% of my throws. Right, exactly. And the experience doesn't want it that way. And I don't know how much of New England's offense was, Tom, you better do it our way. You better do as Josh McDaniels says, otherwise you're going to get it. I'm sure at some point
Starting point is 00:51:39 in the mid-2000s, Josh McDaniels was like, all right, Tom, do whatever you want. We just want to win, man. You want to throw to Wes Welker 20 times a game, go for it. I just think that Tom Brady doesn't want... He's not likely to be as willing to hold on to the ball as Jameis was.
Starting point is 00:51:57 Josh Allen... That's a great way to put it. Josh Allen is eighth QB off the board, by the way. See, if you tell me it's Josh Allen as the eighth quarterback or Kyler Murray as the third, I'm taking Josh Allen 10 out of 10. And it's 30 picks later.
Starting point is 00:52:12 Yeah, no brainer. Yeah, I would say that too. I don't even love Josh Allen. Let's see. We got John in a city between Kansas City and Minneapolis. Heath, I need you for this one. Yeah, Omaha. Lovely place.
Starting point is 00:52:28 Hello, Brad, Liz, Andy, and Matt. I think that's the wrong show, but that's okay. Our Dynasty League is entering our second year and we'll be having our first rookie draft soon. When we made the changes to Dynasty, our commissioner instituted a three-year holding period for every player. Trades and ads restart the three-year holding period i think this is a bad idea and will lead to some odd and
Starting point is 00:52:51 relatively pointless trades in our third year where we're forced to swap similar players such as saquon for mcafree in order to restart the three-year clock this is the first dynasty league for all 12 of us so there's no experience which led to this decision could you please tell our stupid idiot moron of a commissioner that we either need to lift the three year holding period or simply end the dynasty after three years yeah it's not a dynasty league if there's a holding period
Starting point is 00:53:14 dynasty you keep players forever keep early yeah you're gonna keep early and I like I think that that type of league like it creates some interesting like he said pointless trades it creates some really interesting strategy when you get to that year three I think that that type of league, like it creates some interesting, he said pointless trades. It creates some really interesting strategy when you get to that year three. I think, Jamie, your basketball league
Starting point is 00:53:30 has a two-year period, right? For the two keepers? No, it's almost like a four-year. Four-year period, but... Yeah, because we do the year you draft them and then you get three years on top of that. But I don't think there's anything wrong with that. It's just whatever the league wants.
Starting point is 00:53:44 Next email, Scott from Chicago. I'm wondering why Jared Cook is ranked so highly across the industry. He's currently tight end nine in Fantasy Pros ADP, same tier as Waller, Ingram, Henry, and Higby. Then he goes on to explain why he doesn't like Jared Cook. I know you guys don't see it
Starting point is 00:54:00 that way. What'd you say, Heath? You should take this one. You're the Jared Cook guy. Not that high, though. I like him if I wait, wait, wait on tight end. And, you know, I'm like the last guy to take a tight end. I think Jared Cook's... What did I say?
Starting point is 00:54:16 Like, if you get 600 yards and six touchdowns, you're pretty much guaranteed to be a top 12 tight end. Something like that. And I think he will. I think he'll score the touchdowns. He's an okay person, player to wait for. You just don't want to be aggressive to target him. And that, where he's
Starting point is 00:54:32 being drafted, feels like aggressive to target him. It's ridiculous. Plays Tampa Bay in week one, at the Raiders week two. Really good streaming tight end to begin the year. Like that schedule for him. But don't invest in him as a top 10 tight end. I'm trying to find...
Starting point is 00:54:48 Okay, yeah. In the last five seasons, there have been 38 tight ends who have caught six or more touchdowns. 31 of the 38 finished top 12 in PPR. The seven who did not, none of them had even 500 yards. So I think if you get 606, you're going to finish top 12.
Starting point is 00:55:08 Might not be the most impactful season, but you're going to finish top 12. I think he will get there. There was an article about him on ESPN.com, by the way. They were raving about him and how much they expect from Jared Cook this year. Interesting read. All right. Next up, we have Ben from a town in Somerset, England. To be fair with Jared Cook, I was just looking at this.
Starting point is 00:55:30 His numbers were, and he missed two games. His numbers were bad with Bridgewater. Horrible. And that was actually, thank you for reminding me, that was actually a big crux of the argument. He had an injury in preseason or training camp. Kind of set him back. Then Breeze got hurt.
Starting point is 00:55:44 Then he got hurt basically as soon as Breeze got hurt. Then he got hurt, basically as soon as Breeze came back. And then in the second half of the season, he was the number one or number two tight end at Fantasy. Lucky numbers, I get that. He had one game in his final one, two, three, four, five with more than four catches.
Starting point is 00:55:57 Yeah. Lucky to be that high. But they did eventually develop that rapport. And I think they're hoping that it continues in year two. All right, so this email from Ben says, I can keep up to two players at the round they were selected at last year. Calvin Ridley in the fifth, James Conner in the seventh,
Starting point is 00:56:16 Lamar Jackson in the eighth, DK Metcalf in the eighth. Lamar is a no-brainer, but who else? Ridley in the fifth, Conner in the seventh, or Metcalf in the eighth? Metcalf. I think if it's a one-year keeper situation, I'd go Conor over Metcalf, but if you can keep him long-term, I'd go Metcalf. Yeah, I think I'd go Conor.
Starting point is 00:56:42 Conor would go the soonest in a redraft from the group. Well, Ridley. No, Ridley would. Conor might go before Ridley. Actually, you're right. In the draft, the ADP we're seeing, so running back heavy right now. Yeah, I think it's going to end up James Conor up quite a bit. That's a good show, guys.
Starting point is 00:57:02 He could end up being a top 30 pick by August. Oh, if he's healthy? Right, and he's going to be healthy in training camp. Assuming he's healthy in training camp. People are going to take him. People like him. Thanks for talking quarterbacks with me. Dave, still talking?
Starting point is 00:57:20 I'm still talking. I'm already on to the next podcast. All right, running backs. Top five running backs will be the next thing you hear from us. Send us your emails, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com, your Apple podcast questions. Leave us a nice review. Really, really appreciate you listening.
Starting point is 00:57:35 Tell your friends. And we'll see you Tuesday night on Twitch for poker. For Dave, for Jamie, and Heath, I'm Adam. Thanks for listening. Na, na, na, na, nah, nah, nah!

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