Fantasy Football Today - Top 6 QBs for 2023! (01/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: January 19, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Jamey gives his NFL picks for the upcoming weekend (we'll have more on that on tomorrow's show) before we start discussing the 2023 NFL quarterback landscape (3:25). What was the biggest surprise in our Top 6 rankings? Are we kind of over Lamar Jackson (4:40)? How have we been drafting QBs in our early 2023 mock drafts? ... News and notes (12:00) as we have offensive coordinator decisions in Pittsburgh, Detroit and Tampa Bay ... Getting into the QB rankings and debates, we start with Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen (14:30)! Dave and Adam try to convince Jamey to put Allen at #1, but he is sticking with Mahomes. Then we've all got Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow (23:30) at #3 and #4, respectively. We discuss those guys and put their seasons in perspective. Finally, we get into a 3-way race for spots #5 and #6 in the rankings between Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence (30:00) and Justin Herbert (39:45) ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. What's up, everybody? Welcome to the show. It is Fantasy Football today on Thursday afternoon, and we'll have another show for you tomorrow as well. We'll talk about our top six running backs and give you a DFS weekend preview tomorrow. Today, it's all about quarterbacks. Our top six quarterbacks for 2023, Adam Azer, Jamie Eisenberg, and Hall of Famer Dave Richard. And we got four more friends joining us right now.

Let's see who's... No, just not today, Dave. What's up, guys? How we doing? Good, man. Great. Getting pumped for the divisional playoff round. It's usually one of the best weekends of football.

Year after year after year. And I don't think this year is going to disappoint either. I think we're going to get some great games. So, Jamie, you're not going to be on the show tomorrow. So, why don't you this year is going to disappoint either. I think we're going to get some great games. So Jamie, you're not going to be on the show tomorrow, so why don't you give us your picks for the weekend? My picks for the weekend? I'm going to take the Bills, I'm going to take the Chiefs,

I'm going to take the Eagles, and I'm going to take the 49ers. So I'll chalk. All home teams? All home teams. What's the most likely upset? Most likely upset. The most likely upset, I guess, would be the Bengals. I mean, if you want to call it an upset.

Yeah. I mean, the five-and-a-half-point underdogs. Holy cow. That shocks me. I think they're going to win. I mean, if you want to go off the board, I could see either Jacksonville or the Cowboys winning. You're not giving the Giants any credit?

No, I am. But I mean, I think if you're just looking at it from like wackiest games, like Jacksonville winning in Kansas City. Jacksonville winning in Kansas City would be wackiest for sure. I think you can make a case for the other three road teams. No problem. The Giants you can make a case for? I mean, the only case I can make...

We don't know how healthy Jalen Hurts is, and we've seen this Giants offense really start to come alive against Minnesota in their last few games. Yeah, it's true. So this is going to be a much tougher matchup, but they might be able to figure out a way to take down Philadelphia. I think it's going to be...

I think that would be less wacky than Jacksonville beating the chiefs. Only if Hertz is not healthy. If Hertz is healthy, like a hundred percent, but I don't think he is. I know he's trending in the right direction, but that's a big one. And Hertz isn't on the injury report for what that's worth. So if it's old school Hertz, it's going to be a lot harder for the giants to win.

You know that the Eagles have allowed six quarterbacks to rush for at least 40 yards against them this year? Yep. And two of them come from the Giants. But not both were Daniel Jones. Neither one was Daniel Jones. Wait, I thought Daniel Jones was one of them. No. Jones faced him once and he had 26 yards rushing. Terrell Taylor in that same game had two carries for

40 yards. Ah. And Davis Webb. Davis Webb had 41 yards rushing. Six carries, 41 yards rushing, and a touchdown. Yeah, that game. Very annoying game, actually, Davis Webb. Rod Taylor came in at the end. Because he screws up all the per-game standings, Davis Webb,

because he's like the number five quarterback per game, based on his one game. Yes, he does screw up. Yeah, you have to. All right. When you guys look at your top six quarterback rankings, what would you say is the most surprising thing in your top six for you?

I don't think there's a whole lot to really say is surprising. I think everybody's going to have a consensus, maybe not necessarily in the exact order of top four, but the top four names are going to be the same, and it's going to be in some order, Allen, Mahomes, Hertz, Burrow. That's my order. I flip-flopped at the top. Fields should be in there. And then who you pick at number six is going to be the most interesting. So I almost think that that's going to take up the majority of our conversation today is who's number six. Yeah. Because I think it's a pretty, I think it's a pretty obvious top four and top five.

If you include fields with Chicago going into next year. So fields. Yeah. So I'm, I'm looking at all of our, when I say all of us, the five of us, the three of us here,

Heath and Chris stories on the side of our, our top 12 quarterbacks and Adam, you and I have the same top six. No, I'm sorry, we do not. You have Lawrence, I have Fields. But Keith and Chris both have Lamar Jackson in their top six. And so that's a big change from the three of us. Interesting.

Yeah, why not Lamar Jackson? Are you guys just kind of, are you kind of over Lamar Jackson no it's questions about where he'll be and how healthy he'll be and if he's in Baltimore what else is going to be a part of that offense

that'll help him rebound back to being what he was a couple of years ago remember this year when he played, 22.5, I'd say PPR, it doesn't matter, 22.5 points per game, that's six points per passing touchdowns, 21.6 in 2021. So it's been a while since he's dominated. And he has dominated games.

He'll win you a couple of weeks. But I think he's at the point now where you've got to expect some bad games from him too. Yeah. I do think you've got to take into account receiver, not overhaul, but receiving court change. Marquise Brown leaving, Bateman was sort of in and out, so he really didn't have a second option along with Martin Andrews.

Yep. Didn't have a consistent running game to support him the last two years. Last year was clearly a disaster without Dobbins and Edwards, and then this year Dobbins was clearly not right when he was playing, when the two of them were together, the offensive line was a little bit of a mess earlier in the season, you know, got a little bit more solidified by the end of the year. And, you know, you never know how much the contract situation was playing on his mind, you know, in terms of being Lamar Jackson, you know, so who knows how that, you know, factors into it, but he's not younger, he's getting older.

And as we know what these quarterbacks, as they get older, the running starts to come back a knows how that factors into it. But he's not younger. He's getting older. And as we know with these quarterbacks, as they get older, the running starts to come back a little bit to whatever degree it's going to scale back. Is he going to be a 1,200-yard rusher again like he was his MVP season? Is he going to be a 1,000-yard rusher again? I think 7,800 yards is probably hard not to expect based on how he plays. But assuming he's back in Baltimore, assuming that they can give him some semblance of help in the receiving core, there's a lot to love.

So I just wrote this. I don't know if we're going to get into this or not when you're drafting these guys, but we had a lot of chatter in our most recent draft about when the quarterbacks should come off the board, and I think that's going to be a big topic of conversation for a lot of fantasy players. And it felt like, I don't know, half the room, you know, and you can see the results of the draft, but we had Mahomes, Allen, Hertz, and Burrow go in the first three rounds of our drafts, which is very surprising. That

doesn't usually happen for us. But when you get past those guys, and I know this, we're talking about the top six, when you get past those guys, and I know this, we're talking about the top six, when you get past those guys, you look at what the upside could be for a handful of guys. And, and I'm getting, I'm going to go past fields. Cause he went right after those guys. You took them in that draft. I got Trevor Lawrence in round eight, Justin Herbert went in round six, Lamar Jackson, I think went in around six or seven, you know, and, and what those, those just that trio can be be could be absolutely ridiculously amazing and on par with those other guys.

They have the upside to do that. Well, Herbert did it a year ago. He did. It was almost 26 points per game. He was 26 points per game in the first two years of his career. Lamar Jackson is two years removed from being over 25 points. So that would have been on par with Burrow. And we saw it from Fields this year, starting in week five.

Yeah, to me, I want to just remove Fields because there's so much uncertainty right now because he could easily be top five or better if they give him help. But Lawrence, to me, is the one that the rocket ship is just. And the value right now in the two drafts that we've done. Where did he go in the first one? Do you know? Very similar range.

That 7-8 range? It might have been later just because they got pushed down a little. Oh, boy. Anyway, not to go on too far of a tangent, but those top five are great or top six are great. Lamar Jackson, Justin Herb, or some of these other guys could be superstars as well. So maybe it's more of a conversation about who are the top eight, and I think there's going to be more of a

consensus on what those eight names will be, and it'll be a takeaway for everybody that you know who the quarterbacks will be at the top of the fantasy draft, whether they're going round one, round two, round three, but you can feel pretty good knowing that eight of 12 spots in a typical fantasy league. I think it's more than that, though. You think it's more than eight? I just gave you those three, but I mean eight of 12 spots in a typical fantasy.

I think it's more than that though. You think it's more than those three, but I mean, I think there's a separator. Once you get past, we don't know Lawrence Herbert and Jackson. We don't, that's fair.

But I think also, again, if you're, if you are inclined to wait, you know, because I think it's going to be a little more of a divide of, I want one of the top three or four guys, or I'm going to play this out.

Like I typically do. We just saw what Dak Prescott could be when he's right. It's really true. Uh, Kirk cousins had a very, you know, solid ending to his season and we know what he has around him. Uh, we don't know what the Sean Watson ceiling is in Cleveland. Those are my next three, which could be, you know, amazing. If Kyler is healthy, we know what he's been. And, and we, we, We also know what he's been, if you get what I'm saying. Well, I mean, you know, still, now you're talking about drafting him where he was top five to maybe top 10, 12, 13, you know, in that range. I said it on Monday's show, or Tuesday's show, excuse me.

Daniel Jones just finished as one of nine quarterbacks in history to go 3,700. And if that's replicable, which it could be in this offense, as we've seen, Tua, we know what he's capable of doing when healthy. So it's still a very loaded position. Yeah. Tua, I think, is being sort of looked at unfairly because, you know, he basically did what Justin Fields did.

He absolutely tore it up, and then he struggled at the end of the season, but one of those games, I mean, I went over this, I don't remember when, but recently, one of those games he played two and a half quarters against the Texans. One of those games he had possibly playing through the concussion, he threw three interceptions

in the second half against the Packers, but Tua was outstanding, and I thought for sure would be a top 12 guy. And he didn't make the top 12 for you guys, I believe. I don't remember if he made it. I think he may have been 12th for me. Well, I will say this, just based on the two examples you gave. You know why he left the Texans game early?

Part of the reason why he left the Texans game early. Well, because they were crushing them. Well, it's also because Teron Armstead left the game and he started getting beat up a little bit. He's 11 for the Packers game because of the injury. And those are the reasons I think you got to be a little bit concerned.

Is the offensive line going to support a guy that might be a little bit fragile? Yeah, I get that. People are definitely going to be worried about that. But as I mentioned, the Dolphins GM, Chris Greer, said they do not, based on talking to the doctors,

they do not think he is any more prone to concussions than any other quarterback. So I guess what I'm saying is Tua could end up being an incredible value for you on draft day. I think for him, the offseason will be very telling. Who do they bring in to be a backup there? Well, but does it really matter? Because Teddy Bridgewater is a really good backup. I mean, they should invest in a backup quarterback. I mean, they should invest in a backup quarterback. I mean, the Eagles invested in a backup quarterback. It's a smart thing to do. But he's their guy. There's no question about it.

He's their guy, and he's really good when he plays. He's really good for fantasy when he plays. You know, when he's healthy. I'm not disagreeing with that. But I think if there is significant capital invested in their backup quarterback, I'd be concerned. Okay. All right. Quick news items here.

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All right, we got some offensive coordinator news. Dave, the Steelers are bringing back Matt Canada. The Lions are bringing back Ben Johnson. And the Buccaneers fired Byron Lefkowitz. Any major fantasy impact here? Oh, it's so great that the Lions are bringing Ben Johnson back. He's been the reason why that offense has taken off, not just this season, but also last year when he got the opportunity to call plays. He did a really good job with it,

and they've got something cooking, man. I know that Jared Goff, his name's not going to come up on today's show. He's not a candidate to be a top six fantasy quarterback or a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Maybe he should be in that mix to be in that 12 ish range. We're not going to discuss it today. Like I said, but you think about all the pieces they have there, the fact that they're, I don't think they're really losing many significant players from their offensive line or from their receiving core this off season. They've got a shot to be a really good offense in 2023, so I'm excited about him. I am way less excited about Matt Canada going back to Pittsburgh. I don't like what I've seen from that offense for the most part. I thought Canada was going to really change things up

and do the things that he did at Maryland there. I didn't really see that. And then I understand why the Bucs moved on from Byron Lefkowitz. I thought Lefkowitz had some pretty good years calling plays for Tampa, but maybe that was covered up by Tom Brady actually going out there and making the plays more than anything that Lefkowitz did. So he'll go back to being a quarterback coach somewhere, and we'll see what the Bucs do.

They're going to have a very interesting offseason in Tampa Bay. Yes, they will. All right. Well, we don't have to spend much time on that. Let's get into the rankings here. Let's go to our top... Let me say one other thing. I think it means that Todd Bowles is staying in Tampa.

Okay. Yep. Usually when the season ends and the offensive coordinator gets fired, but the head coach doesn't, you don't see the head coach get fired soon after. So it's going to be interesting to see how that works itself out in Tampa.

Okay. Ready for quarterback rankings? Whee! Let's go! So we're going to do our top six here and let's start with one and two. Who are one and two for you guys? Mahomes and Allen. I made

a switch today. Allen and Mahomes. Good for you, Dave. Good for you. Jamie. Good for you. Jamie, come on board. We can convince him. It's an easy case to make. Let's go Allen one, Mahomes two. Jamie, come on.

No, Mahomes is better. Okay. I don't agree. I think Allen has proven that he's better. You could be wrong. It's okay. Is it the better? This is going to be an interesting decision

for at least one person in every single fantasy draft this year, who you take first between the two, because you'll get to a point where you want to take a quarterback whether it's because you believe that they're worth a first-round pick or because you get to a point where you hate everybody that's left at running back receiver and tight end when you get to round three which is where he went in our draft and so you need to have some conviction on who you like better i had had my reasons for why I liked Mahomes better than Allen. I'm curious to hear yours, Jamie, why you've got Mahomes ahead of Allen. Oh, I think for one, the passing offense is obviously better.

There's no doubt about it. So you see what he's been able to accomplish when he's been healthy. I think the concerns going into this year of how would it look without Tyree Kill, you don't have those concerns anymore. At least nobody should. You know, another 5,000-yard season for him. I don't know. For me, it's just the tried-and-true nature of what Mahomes has been.

He's been, I think, better than Allen two of the last four years, or they split to the last four years. It depends on what, you know, which segment. Okay. Well, Mahomes was better by three-tenths of a fantasy point this year. Last year, Allen was better than Mahomes by two full fantasy points. Yeah, last year certainly was an outlier in terms

of how they've been. But they were both amazing. Yeah, that's the thing. You're splitting hairs here. You know, if you want to take Allen over Mahomes, I'm not going to fight you. You know, they're both awesome. They're both the two best. It's why people are taking quarterbacks early. It's because of these two. You know, you could say Jalen Hurts and Burrow, but it's clearly these two. They're both awesome. They're both the two best. It's why people are taking quarterbacks early. It's because of these two.

You could say Jalen Hurts and Burrow, but it's clearly these two. They're safe. They're productive. They're amazing. They'll help you win your week. The thing for me with Allen, I guess, is at some point, the rushing is going to stop. We've seen it even the last two weeks.

The rushing has sort of disappeared. I don't know why. But if he's not rushing for touchdowns, he's not going to pass the same level as Maltz. He's just not. Nope. It's true. If people get a little...

Look, if you just look at the season for Josh Allen, I mean, there's a 10-yard game rushing. There's a 7. There's a 20. There's a 16. I mean, those games happen. But he rushed for 762 yards in 16 games. I don't really think the rushing is going to slow down.

And before the elbow, and this is what it comes down to me. Last year, he was better than Mahomes. Before the elbow injury, he was better than Mahomes. And he was a lot, I mean, he was incredible. He was throwing for 300 yards per game. He was on pace for 5,100 yards and 40 passing touchdowns, in addition to 833 rushing yards and 40 passing touchdowns in addition to 833 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns.

So it wasn't even close, really, before the elbow injury. And I do really think the elbow injury changed things for him. I really do. So that's the argument for me is that Allen was better last year and the elbow...

What the hell just happened, by the way? I dropped my phone. Jamie fumbled his phone. And the elbow injury, to me, is what even made it close this year, because before that, it was Allen by a mile. Or not by a mile, but by enough. By maybe like an eighth of a mile. Whatever it was.

Let's not get winded here, okay? I'm not Heath. I love that he had a career high in rush attempts this year, 124. Last year he had 763 rush yards. This year, 762, literally one yard off of last year. The rushing yards can come down, but we've seen him perform with 600, 500, 400 rushing yards in a season. Those were his first three years in the NFL.

Look at the touchdown production. That's what I'm excited about, And I don't think that that slows down unless the Bills make a major adjustment at running back this offseason. But they're trying. I think they add another player, but I don't know if it's necessarily going to be – like are they going to add Jamal Williams with the idea that he'll be their new short yardage goal line guy and that he'll just handle it all? I don't think it's that.

I don't think so either. And I think anything short of that leaves the door open for Josh Allen to get between seven and nine rushing touchdowns. I'm sure a lot's going to depend on how they finish the season. You know, if they win a Super Bowl and they do it their way, nothing's going to change. If they fall short again, you know, you have to see, okay, what's, what's the problem here?

Why are we getting on the doorstep and not getting through, you know, and is it because they're not giving him more support? And by, by doing that, I mean, you know, giving him more support with some semblance of a rushing attack, you know, Sean McDermott is still a defensive head coach. They've had a new offensive coordinator this year. You know, there's, there's been obviously some complaints, you know, you look at how this Dolphins game just unfolded where it seemed as if he didn't know what he was doing. Ken Dorsey at points in the game, you know, why are you throwing shots down the field when you have a 17 point lead

and everything was working well for you? You know? So I'm, I'm, I'm curious, you know, they, they,

they probably need to give some more help on the passing game too, you know, because the Gabe Davis experiment experiment hasn't exactly been, I agree with this. Yeah. So that's, that's part of the elbow injury. He's been pretty good.

But what was Gabe Davis like before the elbow? You He's been pretty good. What was Gabe Davis like before the elbow injury? Is he more of a number three receiver as opposed to a number two? He's a deep threat. He's not a number two. Do they need more of a... And it could be. They bring back Cole Beasley. Maybe it's Khalil

Shakir getting a bigger role. Isaiah McKenzie knows that's a moment, but he obviously didn't take the step. I think that we kind of were expecting to see. Dawson Knox, you know, he kind of, you know,

disappeared a little bit at the beginning part of the season. No, he's definitely not. What are we doing here? What are we doing? What are we doing analyzing every player on the team?

We know what Josh Allen is. Well, but that's part of it because this is going to be such a tough decision between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. He's got better weapons than Mahomes. The flip side of it, though, where Mahomes' numbers have still been pretty consistent with a retread group of guys.

So have Allen's. But Allen's been a top three quarterback per game three straight years. Top two overall three straight years. There's no fallout here. But a lot of that is because of his rushing. And if the rushing starts to disappear. But it's not going to. Why would the rushing disappear?

But you say that, though. I mean. Why would it disappear? Because you want to preserve him and make sure that he's not getting hurt. It's him. I mean, that's what he does. He runs. And honestly, before the elbow injury, he was throwing the ball almost 40 times per

game. No, sorry. 37.3 pass attempts per game on pace for 5,100 yards. So yeah, if he runs less, and he wasn't running less, but I'm saying he will throw the ball. He will be a prolific passer. Alright, anyway. Allen and Mahomes are 1-2. He's a great passer. I don't want to make it sound like

I don't think he's a great passer. He obviously can still be a top two quarterback with just his passing alone. But the thing that separates him from Mahomes is his rushing. Yes, but it was encouraging for me that his passing was almost as good as Mahomes, better than any other quarterbacks. How many times have I said before the elbow injury, it's like take a drink,

but before the elbow injury, again, 37.3 pass attempts per game, that's insane, 5,100 yards, 40 touchdowns. That was his pace. And conversely, after the elbow injury, his pace was 3,995 yards. You were talking about an 1,100-yard pace, the 1,100-yard difference in 17-game pace at the time of the elbow,

like before and after the elbow. All right, let's take a break here. When we come back, who's 3, four, five, and six? Justin Fields in there, Trevor Lawrence in there, Justin Herbert in there. We'll find out right after this on Fantasy Football today. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic.

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It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Back to talk quarterbacks here on FFT. We also have your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. This is a good time to get your emails in if you have any questions. Don't have a lot of them right now, so we'll be able to get to almost all of them.

So it's either Alan Mahomes or Mahomes-Alan at 1-2. Who's 3-4 for you guys? Hurts is 3 and then Burrow is 4. Same. I think that might be the same for everybody. Yeah, right? I mean, that's... I don't even think we have to spend much time on that, but I'll just say Jalen Hurts,

I mean, week 18 really hurt his averages because he ended up being the number three quarterback per game, whatever, but he was number two and very, very close to Allen or Mahomes, whoever it may have been, in the first 14 games of the season, first 15 weeks. He was terrible in Week 18. He scored eight and a half fantasy points,

clearly not healthy against the Giants. So question about Hurts is this. Is he basically in the same tier as Mahomes and Allen? He is right now. I mean, I think, again, when you put it in perspective of comfort, you feel more comfortable about Mahomes and Allen because they've done it. You've seen them do it year after year after year. So Hurts probably has to do it another year before you put him in that realm of,

okay, I just don't have to be any concern about it. Can he replicate those type of, of, of numbers and be that productive again? But obviously when you see what he was capable of doing this year with the addition of AJ Brown and the improvement from Devante Smith and Dallas Goddard, and, you know, knowing that he plays with that offensive line and just everything that, you know, he brings to the table again, still in his prime of what he's doing as a rusher as well. So there there's just so much upside and so much potential that he could be the number one quarterback,

and he could be a league MVP. He was in that conversation as well from an NFL perspective. So yes, Hurts is, to me, the easy choice as the number three guy, and that is consensus for all of us. Number four is different for one of our five analysts, but top three are the same for everybody. What's the difference at four for Chris? So, no, Heath does not have Joe Burrow at four.

Heath has Burrow at six. And for him, it goes Fields at four, Lamar at five, Burrow at six. So, leaning on the guys that run. Yeah, I get that. And these are six-point-per-passing touchdown league rankings. This is what I'll say about Burrow. He wasn't really close to the top three in terms of points per game. He was in six point per passing touchdown leagues. He was a full two points behind number three Jalen Hurts per game. And that would be even bigger gap if you took away

week 18 for Hurts. In four point per passing touchdown leagues, he was 2.6 fantasy points behind number three Mahomes. So that's a huge deal. However, Azerstadt, big time Azerstadt here, take the nine games that Chase and Higgins were healthy. And that's not including

three games that Higgins barely played, left early, and not including the four games that Chase didn't play at all. There were nine games where he had a healthy

Chase and Higgins. He was incredible. He was on pace for 4,945 yards, 42 touchdowns, only six interceptions. He was almost in that tier with Hertz and Mahomes. His points per game and Allen. His points per game way up in that sample compared to full season because he did definitely deal with some wide receiver injuries

throughout the season. So can't sit here and say that those guys will not get hurt at all but that was a factor i think um for for burrow uh and he was much better when those guys were healthy it's a part of his sunshine upside is if those guys say healthy he can get you over 40 passing touchdowns i doubt you have this adam or jam. Do you know how many games where he scored a rushing touchdown were without Chase or Higgins on the field? He had five. And I think that's what helped him finish where he finished this year because his touchdowns only went up by one year over years.

Passing yardage went down. I think scoring five rushing touchdowns is what kept him as a great fantasy quarterback for the second straight season. And so I guess I'm just a little curious how many of those touchdowns came when he didn't have those two behemoths in the red zone or inside the 10 with him this year. Two, three, two or three. Okay, two or three.

Yeah, I don't know. If those receivers stay healthy, then theoretically he'll have fewer rushing touchdowns, but as many if not more passing touchdowns. It just comes down to how healthy they are, and I don't know if there's anything to say about how serious we should be about or how concerned we should be about Chase or Higgins as injury-prone receivers.

No, I don't think you can factor that in because there's... I mean, are you going to draft? Are you going to avoid Mahomes with the chance that Kelsey breaks down because he's 34? Are you going to avoid Allen with the chance that Diggs misses time? I mean, Chase had, by most accounts, a fluke injury with his hip. Higgins has been a little bit more banged up the last couple of years, but still. I think when you start to look at it, though, you asked about where Hertz is. To me, there's a top three, and then Burrow's kind of by himself at four,

but I could see Burrow, not because he's going to struggle, but I could see him still staying in that 25-point range, and Herbert and Lawrence getting closer to that. So I would think if you're just looking at it from where does the first bridge come, to me, Burrow's the first bridge. So it's those three guys have almost 30-point upside, Allen Mahomes and Hurts.

Burrow is probably, I think, in that 27, 28-point range if he maxes out his potential. Yeah, he was 28.5 points per game in those nine games i mentioned with healthy chase and higgins um i want to bring up just one last thing about hertz and we can move on he had such an easy schedule i don't know if you guys are going to really factor that in but it is pretty obvious when you look at what happened in the n this year. The NFC East just had an incredibly easy schedule, and it was even easier for Hurts because, like, he got to face the Giants twice, where Daniel Jones got to face the Eagles twice, and Hurts didn't have to face the Eagles, you know? So you look at some of the Minnesota, Detroit, again, the Giants twice, the Jaguars,

just almost week after week of easy schedule. And I don't know if that will matter for you guys. But he did face four or five teams that ended up pretty good against quarterbacks and only had one true standout game in those four matchups. So I don't know. Just throwing it out there. Very easy schedule for Hertz. Certainly something to consider, for sure.

All right, let's talk about five and six, because one and two are Allen and Mahomes in some order. Three and four are Hertz and Burrow for all three of us in that order. Five and six are who, guys? For me, it's Fields at five and then Herbert at six. And for me, it's Fields at five and Trevor Lawrence at six. And for me, it's Fields at five and Trevor Lawrence at six. And for me, it is Herbert and Lawrence with Fields seven.

I didn't really know how to approach Fields. I mean, you approach him, I guess, as he's the starter, but there's a chance that they're going to draft a quarterback. But I think that's more of a dynasty discussion. You obviously can make a change there.

I don't think it's a dynasty discussion. I mean, it could be. They have the number one pick in the draft. Bryce Young't think it's a dynasty discussion. I mean, it could be, they have the number one pick in the draft. Bryce Young is probably, or CJ strap. That's not dynasty. It'll still impact fields as soon as next year. It is,

but we're doing decides to restart the clock on their franchise window. I'm just saying, if you're doing a, if you're doing a top six for, for 2023, you don't have to consider that quite as much as if you're doing a dynasty ranking, right?

We're telling people how to draft for 2023. We could obviously make a change if they draft a quarterback at number one overall. Sure, Fields' dynasty value would change because he's on a different team. Yeah. Would you not consider Fields? I mean, we can run through all the teams

that need a quarterback. The one that might be most desperate to trade for him could be an Indy. If he's an Indy, do you think he could go to – could he be in an offense next year where they don't value his rushing like the Bears did the first four weeks of the season? I'd be stunned if any offense did that. Yeah, that'd be dumb.

And that's who he is. And that's what his appeal is in fantasy. Part of it would be is you're acquiring him to be him. You're not acquiring him to fit him into your system. Right. Yeah, I would think he's still going to be good, but he could be worse. I mean, he could be in a situation that they wanted to be

in a little bit more of a pocket passer, and they want him to preserve himself after shoulder injury and lower leg injuries and potential concussions that he dealt with throughout the course of the season. So there's always that possibility. So I would say if he leaves Chicago and any slight downturn, it's easy to put him in that next tier. In that next tier.

For sure. He'd still be a top 10. Absolutely. It's the rushing upside. Okay, so can you even name a team? I mean, Indy's offensive line was pretty bad. Chicago's was bad too, man. Yeah, but that's at least a group that he's worked with in a coach that obviously cultivated whatever system that allowed him to flourish.

Yeah. So, you know, we don't know the coach in Indy. We don't know who else would be around him. And I would say a much better run game. Yeah. Last nine games of the season,

Justin Fields was the number three quarterback per game and four point, uh, number four quarterback per game in six point per passing touchdown leagues. He was on pace for 1,626 rushing yards with 13 rushing touchdowns. It was incredible. I mean, you know, Lamar Jackson, 1,200 yards is Lamar. Well, had he played week 18, he would have broken the record. Yeah, but I mean.

How many yards did he need? 64, I think. He would have broken the record. Yeah, that was crazy. Lawrence, I mean, Lawrence just looks the part. But if you want to make the case against Trevor Lawrence... Depends on which half of Trevor Lawrence you watch.

Not even a half. I mean, oh, you mean in the playoff game? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, there's been other games this year where he's been bad in the first half or bad in the second half after being great in the first half. Well, he played 17 games. He had 35% of his passing yards and 52% of his passing touchdowns

in a five-game stretch from weeks 10 to 15. That was against the Chiefs, the Ravens. That was a surprisingly good game against a tough matchup. The Lions, that was a surprisingly bad game against a good matchup. The Titans and the Cowboys. So he just went off in those games.

He finished with some struggles. Then he was, you know... It's a little weird, though, to say he finished with some struggles. Yeah. Because the last two games of the season, the Jets game was in the bad weather, and then the Texas game,

he only played half. But then there was the Titans game, which was a legitimately bad game. That was surprising. That was week 18. That's a fair one. But you're right. I mean, the Jets game was very tough conditions.

The Texans game, he only scored five points, but he was 17 of 21 for 152 yards, no touchdowns and a pick. They ran all over Houston, and then he left the game in the third quarter. So, yeah, totally get that. But statistically, 12th in yards per game, 13th in completion rate, 18th in touchdown rate, 18th in yards per attempt, 10th in passer rating. He didn't really have, if you look at the full season, Trevor Lawrence didn't really have that great of a season. And as a fantasy quarterback, he was a number 11 per game in four point leagues

and number 12 per game and six-point per pass and touchdown leagues. So why is it that we all have him as a top... I'm sorry. We all have him in the top six or one of us is seventh? No, he's seventh for me. But it's hard not to look at him and say, okay, this is the next great quarterback in this league. If he's not already there based on what he's done

to get this team to the playoffs and how he looked in the second half of the playoff game once maybe nerves settled in or he figured out and Doug Peterson figured out, there's just so much to like about it. First off, the coach is great. The system's going to be fantastic. They're getting Calvin Ridley next year

after trading for him this year when he was suspended. So you put Ridley and Kirk and Zay Jones on the field and maybe they keep Evan Ingram as well. That's as good a receiving core as you can find. And so an underrated aspect of his game is his rushing. You know, I think we got a chance to see that maybe on display a little bit in the Jets game because it was a primetime game, you know, and he was not throwing as much because of the weather and using his legs a little bit more. So he's got just so much to love. The pedigree, you know, he was expected to be great in this league. And, you know, after the Urban Meyer disaster, he's starting to love. The pedigree, he was expected to be great in this

league, and after the Urban Meyer disaster, he's starting to flourish. Going into his third season, whenever this year does end, I think you've just got to say that he's the next breakout quarterback in fantasy, and can be in that Jalen Hurts range where he's competing to be a top five guy and potentially an MVP

candidate. I'm a little worried about saying that he could be that. And if I'm worried about it being that way, then I probably shouldn't have him at six. Why? I echo everything that Jamie said. I love that he's getting Calvin Ridley. I love the coaching staff.

Five rushing touchdowns last year. I think he can match that again in 2023. This is another team where they might make an addition at running back to potentially take away some attempts. That's not Doug Peterson. I don't think it is, but if they find somebody to help support ETN in the run game, and I think they need some type of physical back there, I think that'll end up hurting Lawrence a little bit too. Really?

Yeah, I do. I don't see that. I have a hard time. Like he, Lawrence averaged almost 23 fantasy points per game from week 11 on. That's just, you know, talking about the stretch that you mentioned, Adam. I think he can do a little better than that over the course of the season.

That's the three duds at the end of the season. Includes every dud at the end of the season. So it could have been a lot higher if, you know, he played better or if there wasn't rain in New York or whatever. I do have a hard time penciling in 26, 27 fantasy

points per game for Trevor Lawrence next year. But I do think he can get to 22 to 25. And so he's the headliner for me from that group of fantasy quarterbacks that can get to that range, but not to the elite range with every other quarter. Yeah. I,

I, I see it. I mean, I, I watch him play and I, I, to me, I think he's going to get there.

I don't know if he's going to get there, but I think he could. I mean, right. Look, he was the number one pick. It was this incredible prospect. I think he's coming into his own.

I think I completely throw out the Urban Meyer year. Weapons will get better with Ridley and hopefully they bring back Ingram. I don't know. His weapons weren't really that good. Look what he got out of Zay Jones and Evan Ingram. It's pretty incredible. And Christian Kirk. All these guys had career years. I feel like he could be

so, so good. I don't really know. Maybe it's also that those guys finally got good quarterback play. And good coaching. Good scheming. Yes, yes. All those things. But I'm just saying, it's not like he was playing with an incredible cast of characters here. That's the argument for me for Burrow.

Not that I think Burrow is bad or anything like that, but I think his wide receivers make him potentially elite. Lawrence. Same thing with Hurts. like that, but I think his wide receivers make him potentially elite. Lawrence... The same thing with Hurts. I think just looking at what the Jaguars did, I know Trent Baalke doesn't have the best reputation, but he went out and identified

guys to bring in and overpay. The Jacksonville tax was part of this, but to overpay to get Christian Kirk and Zay Jones and Evan Ingram to come in. Ingram was really buying in on a chance to resurrect his career a little bit. All those things have paid off. Jones has been a great complimentary receiver.

Kirk has stepped into the number one role. Maybe he's not the alpha that we'd love to see with Trevor Lawrence. Hopefully, Calvin really can be that guy. It's all worked. It really has all worked well down the stretch And that's why they're in the playoffs and were able to rebound from his poor performance. But the rebound was as a result of him as well. You know, so it's just a guy, I think, where, you know, he's the one, if you're going to let somebody else take Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts and Burrow, you know, you start to let somebody else take Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts, and Burrow,

you start to see whoever else is next, whether it's Fields or Herbert or Lamar, get ready to take Trevor Lawrence in that next range. All right, and that just, I guess we should finish with Herbert then, who we talked about a little bit Monday, I think. Yeah, Tuesday. Yeah, when they lost.

Tuesday, right. Tuesday. Terrible year for him. He threw the second most passes in the NFL. They've been top five in that category. The Chargers have been top five in pass attempts three straight years, top three in pass attempts two straight years. So it seems like at least you're going to get that

from Herbert. But just look at the decline in numbers. He threw 27 more passes in 2022 than he did in 2021. And he went from basically 5,000 yards to 4,739, 38 touchdowns to 25, uh, 15 interceptions in 2021 and only 10 in 2022. That's good.

The rushing yards are way down too. And we know the rib injury played into that, but he, he rushed for, uh, nearly 200, 170 ish, fewer rushing yards.

So everything was worse. I have him fifth. Jamie has him six. Dave has an eighth, Justin Herbert here. So I don't know, just for me, it's just,

I've seen it. He was truly elite in 2021. I love that they're changing offensive coordinators. I know he's going to throw a lot. I think he had some bad touchdown luck and seems like a good bounce back to me. This is another team that needs to make some changes. And if the changes are viewed favorably,

Herbert is easily the sixth quarterback, if not fifth. Because what do we think he needs? First of all, he needs a better play caller than Joe Lombardi. That's happening. Right, right, right. If they bring in Nathaniel Hackett, I don't know if we'll feel so good about it. He was a bad play caller as a non-head coach. Maybe. I'm not sure if he was. I don't know how many times he actually got to call plays.

Sure, fair. So we'll see who they bring in there. I'd like to see L.A. add some speed to that passing game. And someone to stretch downfield. I think that would help Justin Herbert a lot. And we need to see Keenan Allen play. I thought the splits without Keenan and with Keenan were telling. And I think Keenan Allen has to be that dude for Justin Herbert.

He certainly helped Herbert's numbers out quite a bit when he played. Yeah, I mean, you mentioned, Adam, the numbers with Burrow, with and without Chase and Higgins. I mean, Herbert played the majority of the season without his top two guys. And it's tough to, you know, get into a rhythm even, you know, when these guys are calling in and out. I mean, you know, we had Mike Williams play a series in one game, you know, before he re-aggravated his ankle injury.

Keenan Allen, the first game he came back, wasn't the same, you know. So there was a big portion of that year that just wasted for Herbert, you know. So obviously he didn't have the dynamic numbers when they were there, but I do think that we sort of pointed out, okay, hopefully a new play caller will help that. Hopefully these guys being healthy will help that. Adding a third piece, or I would say probably more of a fourth piece. You know, I don't know if you need to have a deep threat

that's a consistent player, playmaker. Put him on the field on passing down. But just somebody who's going to open things up. I think that will help too. That might have been something that they missed with Guyton gone. Just somebody that at least scares the defense a little bit. Absolutely. Here's the other thing. Two more things. Number one,

Herbert played hurt. Had the fractured rib. Played through that. Rank these three offensive lines. Chicago, Jacksonville, LA Chargers. When they're healthy, on paper. I mean, it's the Chargers first,, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, when they're healthy on paper. I mean, it's the Chargers first, then Jacksonville, then Chicago. And that needs to stay healthy too.

They're all different though. They're all very different, but the Chargers, if that offensive line stays healthy and they might add another piece to fortify that line even more, dude, if that line stays healthy and they add some speed in the passing game, Herbert could shoot right back up. and we talked about this on tuesday he absolutely could be like the best bounce back candidate in fantasy forget about the quarterback position just overall could absolutely be that guy well i think it's a shame i said this on tuesday but when the the three player three quarterbacks in the nfl with the lowest air yards per pass attempt are Matt Ryan, Daniel Jones,

Justin Herbert, that is an injustice. Justin Herbert should not be in that category. It's because of the things that we talked about. It's all of it. Bad offensive line, playing hurt, not having a deep threat, and a bad play caller. He went four for four. Yeah, that's bad.

Let's read a couple emails here and then skedaddle. Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com is the email address. That is the letter I. Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. It's not E-Y-E. Some people make that mistake because you know the logo and all. Alright, here's a way too

early who should I keep question from Matt in Massachusetts. Pick seven keepers. As long as you want, it's kind of dynasty light. 10-team PPR, two QB league, three receivers. Okay. All right, so tier one is Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Stefan Diggs.

I'm assuming, yeah, those are going to be three keepers. Probably. Pick four more then. Javante Williams, Damian Pierce, Dalvin Cook, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Pittman, Calvin Ridley, James

Connor, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Matthew Stafford. It is a 2QB league. It's 10 teams. So basically pick four of this group. Yeah. Javante, Damian Pierce, Dalvin Cook, DeAndre Hopkins, Pittman, Ridley,

Connor, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Matthew Stafford. Okay. All right. I think there's five that we'd all say are consensus keepers, and that's Jackson, Murray, Diggs, Javante, and Damian Pierce. I'd put Stafford. Over any of those five? The two QB league, yeah.

Well, you can make it to six. I'm asking you, would you keep Stafford over Damian Pierce? Oh, no, I'm sorry. No, but he'd be on. So the first five names that I think he's got to keep are those five. Yeah. So then it's two from the rest. I'm not sure if I'm keeping Stafford. If it's a keep as long as you want

league, and you've got Lamar and Kyler. I think you've got to know your league. I play in a 10-team 2QB league. There are some decent quarterbacks on the waiver wire throughout the year. If you think some quarterbacks are going to get thrown back that are better than Stafford or as good,

then I don't think you have to keep Stafford. But yes, I agree. Jackson, Kyler, Diggs, Javante, Pierce, everybody agrees on that. Those five are locked in. The two I would keep with it. It's a three-receiver league with a flex. I will take Ridley. And I think because it's a keeper league, Pittman over Hopkins.

Okay. I think I'd keep Pittman. Pittman or Williams. Keenan Allen. I'd go Williams over Ridley. Who's Mike Williams? Not Keenan Allen here. I mean,

if you're just trying to win now, then yes, you're keeping Keenan Allen over all these guys. Well, if you're just trying to win now, then yes, you're keeping Keenan Allen over all these guys. Well, and if you're trying to win now, I think Hopkins makes sense as someone to keep as well. It's a wild card with him. Yeah. Do we all agree on Pittman as one? Yeah.

All right. Yeah. Yeah. Unless you're trying to win ASAP. And then you can figure out the seventh. This is from James. Grade the dynasty trade. Unless you're trying to win ASAP. And then you can figure out the seventh. This is from James. Grade the dynasty trade.

This is a big one. Blockbuster. Christian Watson and Ramondre Stevenson. And pick 1.6 for Jamar Chase. Full PPR. Watson, Stevenson, and six for Chase. I'm absolutely taking not Chase. You're taking Watson, Stevenson, and six? I'm giving up Chase.

That's a great package. Not me. I'm going Chase. Okay. Do you have quarterback concerns in Green Bay? You got to have some quarterback concerns, right? And then Stevenson. Of course.

Stevenson. This could go either way. This could go in so many different directions with these guys. It's interesting. I'm happy to take the back. Yeah, no, to be honest, it's a fair deal. I think if you're trying to fortify your roster with more opportunities, more options, then it's a fair deal.

You know, you're getting a guy that's got top 20 upside at receiver and maybe top 10 upside at running back for whatever short-term situation it might be and who knows who six will be for rookie draft. We've certainly seen a lot of failed picks in that range. But, I mean, Jamar Chase is, you know, the second best receiver and second best player in Dynasty. So just make sure you're getting three great players because it's Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase.

Follow the list after that. Thank you, guys. Good show. Tomorrow, top six running backs with Chris Towers and Dave. And we'll take a look at the games, give you some DFS tips and stuff like that. Mel is asking, are we doing any player props? Are we doing any? We do a live player prop show on YouTube every Friday at 4 p.m. Eastern.

It's under the Sportsline banner called The Early Edge. I'll tweet out a link to it this Friday. Yes, absolutely, player props on that show. And sure, I'll probably come up with a couple of player props. Yeah, I'll try to do some for tomorrow while we do the DFS stuff. Why not? We'll get it on. Have a great day, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.