Fantasy Football Today - Top 6 WR Debates! Julio or Tyreek? Hopkins or Godwin? (06/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 24, 2020

Michael Thomas has earned his spot as WR1 in PPR, but what about in non-PPR? And who is our #2 WR behind Thomas? We start the show with an ADP review, Heath's reasoning for having Davante Adams and Julio Jones as #2 and #3 respectively, and our collective reasoning for being a little low on DeAndre Hopkins ... News and notes (6:36)! Is Antonio Brown coming back? Then we've got WR Fill in the Blank (12:00). Which of the Top 6 WRs has the most upside? Most downside? Who are we avoiding in drafts? Who has the highest floor? ... Some key questions about these WRs (19:15) and then the guys have an extended rankings discussion. Chris Godwin vs. D.J. Moore (26:00). Adams and Julio vs. Tyreek Hill (33:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Well, a year ago, average draft position looked like this at wide receiver,

at least in half PPR. DeAndre Hopkins, sixth overall. Devontae Adams, two picks later. Julio Jones, two picks later. Then Michael Thomas and Odell Beckham, those top five going in the first 13 picks. You had Tyreek Hill going just after that. Hopkins, Adams, Julio, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham, and Tyreek Hill. It was a weird year for wide receivers.

It wasn't nearly as good as 2018 was for wide receivers. And this year, familiar names, different order, but right now ADP on NFC is Michael Thomas, fifth overall, then Devontae Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, and Julio Jones. And one more spot after that is Chris Godwin. We're going to talk about the top six. Those six, Michael Thomas, Adams, Hopkins, Hill, Julio, and Chris Godwin. Welcome to a wide receiver rankings edition of Fantasy Football Today. Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and Ben Gretsch. All right, Jamie, give me an overall assessment of these top six wide receivers. And what do you think about these guys compared to previous years where you had Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham in there and Juju Smith-Schuster last year?

You know, you had kind of the same names over and over again. What do you think about the group this year, which is maybe a little bit different than what we've seen in the past? They're obviously awesome. I think they're all going to be, you know, if they healthy have the chance to you know continue to produce at a high level um clearly there's some challenges you know is is calvin ridley going to eat into julio jones hayden hurst as well is deandre hopkins going to thrive in arizona you know leaving deshaun watson and the situation he's been used to is chris godwin going to be successful with Tom Brady. But, you know, from what we've seen from them, either with a small sample size, you know, like Godwin,

you know, having his breakout season last year or what Julio Jones has done over the course of his career. I mean, these guys are awesome. The one concern I think would be is that if you draft them early, are you leaving running back talent on the board and missing out on still very good wide receiver talent in that round three, four range? And I think that's the draft challenge that people have to sort of deal with is, are you going to go running back heavy with your first two picks and then still get good wide receiver talent later while passing up, clearly two of these guys or maybe one of these guys. Heath, you've got Devanteae Adams, two, and Julio Jones, three. They're both coming off of down years by their standards.

Why are they two and three? Yeah, I mean, down years by their standards, sure. But Hopkins had an injury that cost him four games. Or not, Adams had an injury that cost him four games. If you look at his 16-game pace over the last two seasons, it's 115 catches, 1,400 yards, and 11 touchdowns. He had some weird, bad touchdown luck last year. He's normally been one of those guys that we're saying, well, he's not going to score quite that many again, and he probably won't

be like a 12-13 guy, but I expect he's got as good a chance of anybody as scoring double-digit touchdowns. And both of these guys in situations where, I mean, Jamie mentioned Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst. Well, last year, for the first half of the year, it was Calvin Ridley, Muhammad Sanu, and Austin Hooper. So I don't think Julio's got necessarily more competition than he had last year. Adams doesn't really have any more competition

than he had last year. They're going to both go over 150 targets, and they're both still really good. Hey, Ben. Hey. Third episode of the week. Here still really good. Hey, Ben. Hey. Third episode of the week. Here's Ben Gretsch, ladies and gentlemen. Ben, here's what I find surprising based on our rankings,

where Hopkins is sixth for Jamie, fifth for Dave, and sixth for Heath. Where do you have DeAndre Hopkins? I have him seventh, but I'm warning you. I have him seventh now as well. You've moved DJ Moore ahead of him? Correct. Okay. I have Moore five and I have since January, so Heath's a copycat.

Well, what I find interesting is that the ADP I read, Michael Thomas, Devante Adams, Hopkins three, then Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, and Chris Godwin. So are the CBS guys just down on DeAndre Hopkins, Ben? Maybe, and I don't think it's wrong. I mean, so there's things to consider, right? We know that, you know, I know he's talked a lot about with him how he's moving to a spread offense. It's going to be a little harder for him to dominate targets. We also know that Arizona's probably going to throw more.

So maybe he can get close to his, you know, a similar target number as you kind of project it out. But for, I mean, I think there's, I don't know. Initially for me, it was concern about changing teams, the shortened off season, just the history of players changing teams. You know, a lack of certainty with Kyler Murray. We're all really excited, but he's a running quarterback too. And we don't know how much his, you know,

his passing ability will translate to an elite number one type receiver season, especially when I think Christian Kirk's a good player and Larry Fitzgerald's still going to be around. So I think there's a lot of elements there that are like, okay, what is his real upside? But then lately I said, I've been coming around. It's just remembering that DeAndre Hopkins is really,

really good. And this team is probably going to throw a ton. DeAndre Hopkins has never been on a team that's thrown for more than like 4,100 yards right around there. He's never been on a team that's thrown 30 touchdown passes, but he always gets the 30% or more target share. The only time in the last five years, the only times he didn't get 30% or more of the targets

was the Osweiler year. The other four years, it's been at least 30%. That's a lot. It's hard to, I guess, project that. Was that fair to say? You're not going to just give somebody 30%, maybe Adams, but not Hopkins. If he got 30% of the targets last year from just what Kyler Murray did,

he would have been the second most targeted receiver in the NFL, and it would have been the third most targets of his career at 166. Do you think he'll get there? No. No. Yeah, it's a lot harder to do in a spread offense. Right, right. All right, so we have a lot to talk about with all of these guys,

and we're looking forward to it. We're also going to read your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com i do have one news item to get to it's about a wide receiver the last time we saw him in a full season he was number two in non-ppr number five in ppr that was 2018 and that is antonio brown nfl network reporting that the seahawks and the raiders have had internal discussions about signing anton Brown. He only played one game in 2019. It was good. It was against the Dolphins. Did you say the Raiders?

Am I wrong? What's that fool me once? Shame on me? Like what? The Raiders? Did I get it wrong? Did I have the wrong team? I'm not saying you're wrong.

I'm saying that's hilarious if you're right. Ravens. I mean, he derailed their 2019 season. Wow. Okay. Well, that's disappointing. It would have been more fun if it was the Raiders, but I'm glad we got that. Could you imagine if the Raiders brought him back?

Alarm bell should have gone off right there. I am sorry about that. The Ravens, he's always working out with his cousin, Hollywood Brown and Lamar Jackson. So I guess that makes sense. But how good do you guys think Antonio Brown could be if he's able to play this year? Way better than where he's getting drafted. Yeah. Right.

He'd be, I think, I'd probably rank him as a number three receiver right away. Somewhere around 30. Seattle's interesting because if he goes to Seattle, I don't even know the answer to this question. I was thinking Baltimore. I was thinking Baltimore. Yeah, because if he goes to Seattle, I don't know how you rank Brown, Lockett, and Metcalf.

It would crush those other two guys. I was going to say this report is most notable for me because Seattle did bring in Josh Gordon late last year, and Gordon's applying for rein late last year and Gordon's applying for reinstatement and Gordon's working out apparently in Seattle right now and I don't know if they've had talks with him too that hasn't I don't think been reported but it seems like Seattle's kicking the tires on a potentially big wide receiver addition well big name yeah name right uh the the report according to the NFL network is whether it's Josh Gordon or Antonio

Brown there's a strong sense the Seahawks will eventually take a chance to upgrade at wide receiver. So it sounds like they're going to make a move. Okay, but we saw the Antonio Brown thing last, or the Josh Gordon thing last year, and it didn't really have an impact. To me, these are two separate things. Yeah, completely different.

Gordon, I wouldn't probably blink an eye in terms of Lockett and Metcalf, but Antonio Brown, I would. Yeah. Okay. Well, as I think we,

we like the Seattle wide receivers quite a bit, so I don't want that to happen. Although hypothetical Seahawks go out, sign Antonio Brown, Russell Wilson becomes QB blank. Four still for me. I'd probably put him ahead of Dak. I'd probably make him three.

Yeah. It's either three or four with deck i just want to point out gordon was uh 9.1 yards per target last year 10.4 the year before he's still been very good seattle just used him situationally and i do agree with jamie it's a different thing but he came in mid-season if they brought him back this year after he played with him last year i think he could be kind of a more of a threat to particularly Metcalf for me would be a concern. And this one just popping up on Roto World, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is comfortable with where Ben Roethlisberger is at in his rehab. Very nice. All right. Back to the wide receiver. That was a quick little detour. Back to the top six wide receivers. So I heard the Raiders are looking at Ben Robinson. Man, the Raiders. Geez. Actually, let me promote a few things. I'm glad. We're

recording this Tuesday afternoon. You'll hear this on Wednesday. I had a lot of fun winning poker tonight on Twitch. That was great. YouTube. We're on YouTube if you want to watch us. YouTube.com slash fantasy football today. We also have the Mailbag Show on Friday. Send in your questions via Apple Podcast Review

or email at FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. And baseball's back. I got my Jeter shirt on right now. Baseball's probably back. So, you know, that's good. The Raiders are starting baseball. Oh, jeez. I'm never living this one down. Justin Jefferson and the Raiders. Let's check out the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast.

Get ready for the season. Coming very, very quickly. What's the impact of fantasy baseball? How's it going to work? We're trying to think about, can you really do a head-to-head league? Would you just do total league? Would you just do total points? Would you just do Roto?

Because there's going to be eight-ish weeks of games? Nine? Nine. Actually, maybe ten until the end of the season. I think you do a head-to-head with, and this is where my presence is missed, do a head-to-head with double-headers.

You get to play everybody once, and then you start the playoffs. It's easy. All right, but when do you start the playoffs? You play the final three weeks of the season. Yeah, I don't know. We don't have enough time to be jacking around with it. These three weeks matter, and these three weeks don't matter. We've got ten weeks. We're going to use them all. Why don't you just play whoever scores the most points wins?

People like playing against each other. Yeah, I know, but it's just different. It's weird. If you wanted that, you could play best ball. I'm so much Yeah, I know, but it's just different. It's weird. If you want to do that, you can play basketball. I'm so much less enthusiastic this year, and it's such a shame. I love fantasy baseball. I can't really get into it right now.

When am I supposed to start a fantasy baseball draft right now? It's almost July. We've been in one for three months. I know. We have one draft that's still going, don't we? Yes. Yes. It's great.

Somebody's been on the clock for almost two weeks. Well, somebody. I think we can probably guess who it is. No. No, you'd be surprised. I'm pretty sure. Oh, okay. It's not Will Brinson.

It usually is. All right. Anyway, Fantasy Baseball Today, check out the podcast. Let's do some fill in the blank. The top six wide receiver with the most upside is blank. Michael Thomas? Are we including Michael Thomas? Are we including Michael Thomas? Yeah, but Michael Thomas was...

McCaffrey? Look, yes, we are including Michael Thomas, but I think it's fair to note that DeAndre Hopkins and Julio Jones, they've had... I think they've had better years than what... They've been close. They've all had huge years, like what Michael Thomas did last year. So I think it's a fair question either way.

Devante Adam. In PPR, I think it's pretty clearly Michael Thomas, but there's others. You could argue for Adams or Tyreek, I think, and none. For me, it's very clearly Tyreek Hill if Michael Thomas is not being considered. Clearly. Even in PPR? Yeah, in all formats.

I mean, that offense... I mean, I think he said Adams had the best chance to score double-digit touchdowns. Tyreek scored 13 two years ago when he was healthy. He scored 7 last year in 12 games, but two of those 12 games, he didn't even play 20% of the snaps. He left Week 1 very early,

and he left that game in Mexico City against the Chargers after, I think, 18% of the snaps. The game he returned after his collarbone, he only played 50-ish percent of the snaps, and he scored seven touchdowns in about 10 games. And then he scored two in three playoff games. He scored twice in the AFC Championship. I think he has monster touchdown upside with Patrick Mahomes, and he has monster yardage upside that Devonta Adams does. I think Adams is more of a high target kind of guy. Uh,

Adam, can we correct something else you were wrong about? Sure. Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones have not had seasons, uh, just as good as Michael Thomas. How, what were their best seasons?

Um, I don't, I, okay, I can pull that up. Uh, what did Thomas score last year? I have Julio over here.

What did Thomas score last year? 374. Uh, Julio over here. What did Thomas score last year? 374. Julio's best year was 369. Oh, okay. So score one for Razor. And Hopkins was 330-something? Hopkins' best year was 334. Okay.

So Julio's been up there. All right, we'll split. I'll split 50%. But I got the Raiders thing wrong, so I'm batting 333, which is great. That would be 250, actually. If you were half on one and zero on the other, it would be 250.

I'm one for three. No. Half for two. Tyreek Hill also, keep in mind, he left the game against the Chargers as Ben just said, very early in that game. He was pretty bad after that. He was just not himself. That was week 11.

Week 12 was a bye. After that, the last five games of the season, he didn't have more than, I think, 72 yards. He just, he was not Tyreek Hill. Does he lose a little bit if Hardeman takes on a bigger role and Watkins is healthy? I don't think so. I'm with you.

I'm just, you know, it's, it's, it's a potential, you know, if, yeah,

if Edward Solaire is as good as advertised, catching the ball at backfield and Hardman takes on whatever bigger role to whatever extent, um, if he does and, and Watkins is still, you know, playing whatever percentage of snaps he's going to play.

Then I wonder if, you know, Tyreek takes a slight dip in production. Certainly a reasonable take, I think. There have only been two wide receivers in the last five seasons who have finished top five in PPR with less than 90 catches. Tyreek Hill in 2018 and Chris Goblin in 2019. Goblin, though, played 14 games. He would have had more than 90 catches. Tyreek Hill in 2018 and Chris Godwin in 2019. Godwin, though, played 14 games. He would have had more than 90 catches. But keep that in mind.

The other thing to keep in mind, if you're playing in a non-PPR league, Tyreek Hill's 2018 season, he actually scored more fantasy points than Michael Thomas did in 2019 in non-PPR. So his 2018 season was really outstanding in non-PPR. All right, back to fill in the blank. Which top six wide receiver has the most downside?

Hopkins. It's Hopkins or Godwin. I think people are too excited on Godwin. I'm not. Yeah, I mean, I think it's Hopkins or Godwin. I think people are too excited on Godwin. I'm not. Yeah. I mean, I think it's Hopkins or Godwin. I mean,

you know, to be fair, it's probably Thomas, you know, it's just because he's being drafted as a top five overall player. And it's unrealistic that he's going to do what he did last year because Emmanuel Sanders will cut into whatever production he has. And Kamara should be a hundred percent. So, you know, if you're getting 2018 Michael Thomas, that's not bad, but it's not

top five overall player. So this is what, this is what really changed things for me with Thomas. Like he had 185 targets last year. Is that right? Most since 2015 for any wide receiver, but the two years before that, he was right around 150. And his rates were pretty similar. So it was basically just an increase in targets. And then Michael Thomas was the number six PPR receiver both 2017 and 2018. So I kind of felt like if his targets come back down to 150,

he's going to be disappointing. But 2018 Michael Thomas, even though he was number six in PPR, those fantasy points would have been good enough to be number one in 2016, in 2017, and number two in 2019 behind only Michael Thomas. He has had two amazing years in a row. His 2018, I just looked it up in PPR, was good enough to outscore every running back except for Christian McCaffrey in that format last year. What he did in 2018 would have been the number two running back in 2019.

And 2018 was just a ridiculous year for wide receivers. Michael Thomas still, if he gets 150 targets, has a good chance to finish as the number one wide receiver in PPR, but he still hasn't had double digit touchdowns. And his floor is massive. That's the other side of it. We just learned that even if Breeze goes down, he has a lot to do with that success.

And Bridgewater's not there anymore, but I think he'd be fine with Jameis. What if it's Taysom Hill, though? That would be a different scenario. The top six wide receiver I won't draft is blank. DeAndre Hopkins. I don't have one that I wouldn't draft.

Hopkins is going third amongst receivers, so you're not going to draft him. I probably am least likely to draft him, yes. Top six wide receiver with the highest floor is blank. Michael Thomas. Easily Thomas. I would say in non PPR,

it's not Michael Thomas. Sure. But PPR is a dominant format. What do you guys think though? I think, I think it's Tyreek Hill and non PPR. I'll take Adam. Also take Thomas.

Heath, you look like you want to insult me. You have this look on your face, like you're about to drop the boom. Well, no look like you want to insult me. You have this look on your face like you're about to drop the boom. Well, no, I always want to insult you. No, I was trying to decide. I was really stumped by a non-PPR. I think I'd probably lean Hill. Okay.

The catches are so different. He's like an 86 catch guy, and Michael Thomas had 150 last year. It's just what a freaking season he had. Unbelievable. All right, so how far ahead of the pack is Michael Thomas from the rest? And let's compare it to the running backs. Who's more ahead of the rest of the position,

Christian McCaffrey or Michael Thomas? The rest of the elites. Thomas, Jamie? In PPR, yeah. I actually am going to say McCaffrey because of Jamie's argument that he just made about all the guys that were hurt and Thomas maybe coming back to 150 targets. I don't think there's...

I mean, there's a pretty huge difference for both, but I'll say McCaffrey. Yeah, I have McCaffrey a lot further ahead of, say, Gwen Barkley than I do Thomas ahead of Adams, so I'll say McCaffrey stands out more. Are you nervous about Julio Jones

at this stage in his career with some decline in the stats last year? There's 600 pass attempts minimum to go around in Atlanta, and it's basically Julio, Calvin Ridley, and Hayden Hurst, no disrespect to Russell Gage. Why not any disrespect to Russell Gage?

I don't see, unless Julio gets hurt, but I don't see a non-injury case for him getting fewer than 150 targets. He's going to be a 1,400-yard guy. Okay. Does this matter to you? Tom Brady. So Chris Godwin last year had 1,339 yards and nine touchdowns. In the last 10 seasons with the Patriots. Only one wide receiver has,

well, I guess twice. Wes Welker was the only wide receiver with 1200 yards. He did it twice. Um, only one wide receiver, I think had more than eight touchdowns. That was only one time.

So basically what Chris Cobwin did last year, no wide receiver did with Tom Brady in the last decade in New England. Does that matter to you? I don't care what happened with him in New England to be honest because Bruce Arians is a different animal than what he's had before. These receivers are different than what he's had before aside from that

2007-2008 campaign. I just think these guys are going to be fine. I think they're going to be fine, too. I think the gap between Godwin and Evans, I have a hard time with it. I don't agree with it. I think there's a lot of – Dave has some good numbers on this that he's pulled where Brady's best players have typically not been outside receivers except for that one Moss season.

It's still irrelevant though. Yeah. I, I, my issue with that is I don't know that Godwin is very similar to the other slot receivers that he's had in the sense that both it's essentially just Welker at Edelman. Right.

And they're both option route guys. They're both short area agility, quickness guys. Godwin is, uh, he can be that. I'm not saying he can't, but he's a different type of slot receiver.

He's a more vertical slot receiver. He made a lot of plays down the field last year. And I don't know that he's going to be running a whole lot of like option routes and those types of things. This is just my perception. It could be wrong. I just, I feel like Chris Godwin is a more complete wide receiver already than Mike

Evans is. Mike Evans is like, he's really, really good at his two tricks, but he's kind of a two trick pony. And I think Chris Godwin can do more. And I don't, I'm worried that if he doesn't get those deep shots, he doesn't do very much after the catch.

If he doesn't get as many of those deep shots, I feel like the floor is a lot lower for Evans. He's going to have such better quarterback play though. Both these guys. I mean, you know, they, they were successful last year based on a lot of it, them and what Arians did for them and Lefkowitz did for them. I just think they're going to have a much better quarterback situation

based on how Tom Brady's going to play, even at his age. Yeah. I agree with that for sure. But the other concern I would just add with Godwin, and again, it's the gap that i'm talking about and he makes a decent point about the floor but is gronkowski and they're going to run more two tight end sets and so if oj howard is still involved to some degree those are short area targets and intermediate targets they're all in godwin's range evan still seems like the clear

downfield threat when when brady does start downfield and i think he will throw a lot more downfield in tampa than he did in New England. I agree with Jamie. It's going to be completely different. And you can go back into Brady's history. The one year he played with Brandon Cooks, his average depth of target or his average depth of throw was a full yard higher than any other season he's had since 2013. He was a way more vertical passer when he had a legitimate vertical threat.

And he will be in Tampa Bay in an offense that's going to have more vertical routes. I think Evans kind of has less competition for the types of routes he's going to run and the depths that he's going to see targets than Godwin does. The thing about Evans, I think, which is great, I know we're getting away from the topic here, but his value is just ridiculous. Like, he may struggle a little bit,

but if he's anywhere close to what his averages are and you're getting him in round three, and in some cases mid to end of round three, that's a steal. Yeah. Yeah, he's 29. Yeah, I actually have him Godwin 6, Evans 8. So I think the gap should be closer,

but I think Evans should be top 10. That's exactly what ADP is, by the way. Godwin 6, Evans 8, but separated by eight picks. Yeah, and just another thing to keep in mind, Chris Godwin, for his career, averages 15.1 yards per catch. Julian Edelman and Wes Welker average 11 yards per catch in their career. Godwin is a beast. He's a different animal.

Yeah, but just, you know, play the slot, play similar roles, but different players. One more thing to keep in mind, Tampa Bay threw the ball a little bit less later in the year. Their offense last six games of the year got their defense rather got better. They threw less. I also faced some crappy offenses, but there's just a lot.

There's a lot. So you know what? I'm going to open the floor to you guys. I'm going to let you talk it out. I'm going to let you rank the top six. Number one, I know is Michael Thomas. If you're going to let you rank the next five and you guys can,

uh, can debate the rankings and whatnot. And, we'll, uh, we'll hear from our analysts. We'll do that after this quick break here on Fantasy Football Today. We're coming right back. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League.

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one through six. I guess we'll go PPR here. Jamie, kick it off. I'm going to go with Michael Thomas of the Raiders, one. Devante Adams, two. Julio Jones, three. Tyreek Hill, four.

And Chris Godwin, five. Then Hopkins, six. Hopkins, six. Okay. Heath? Same top five as jamie and dj more six ben and i go thomas hill adams jones and then the big question that i had most of january and february and something i'd like to discuss a little is dj more verse chris godwin straight up and because i've fallen very firmly into DJ Moore should go ahead of Chris Godwin.

And I don't understand why he doesn't. I have Moore five, Godwin six, Hopkins seven. Well, why he doesn't is because Godwin's already had the top five season and DJ Moore hasn't. What Godwin did last year in 14 games, and I know DJ Moore only played 14 and a quarter as well, but Godwin was just a lot better. But it was all efficiency. I mean, we talk a lot about efficiency regression, right? He had 11 yards per target last year.

He had nine touchdowns, a massive touchdown rate. That stuff is going to regress. He only had 120 targets. I mean, he was pacing for a lot more. But Moore had a lot more volume in the same number of games, as he just said. And he was a year younger. He was playing with a worse quarterback.

I know Winston wasn't great, but Kyle Allen was pretty bad last year across the board in pretty much any metric. They went and traded him this offseason to go be a third stringer. And Moore was very, very good on the volume that he did get compared to guys like Curtis Samuel, who was massively inefficient on the volume that he got in that offense. And Moore has the longer track record, had the longer track record as a prospect coming in. I think Godwin's very, very good. Like I said, I have him ranked six and he's one of my favorite young players to take. I think we did a dynasty startup mock not too long ago. I took

Moore and Godwin back to back at the turn, the one-two turn, but I would take Moore ahead of Godwin in that format too. And Godwin goes higher goes higher i just i don't understand how more with a better prospect profile better track record younger worse qb more volume last year and was still productive is going behind a guy who was mostly just all efficiency last year i think probably two things would be one quarterback play still probably worse you know going in yeah i think most people take radio bridgewater no offense teddy um and for me it's it's offense i think that bruce arians and what he does and what will he still will do versus what joe brady hopefully will do um and and i have them two spots apart you know i this isn't a knock against dj more because i certainly understand where you're coming from. But I just think, you know, Chris Godwin's touchdown potential also.

You know, what you should be able to get from him until DJ Moore does that, like get over the four has been his career high, right? You know, get to six plus, maybe get to close to 10. I just feel more comfortable with Godwin right now. I would not be surprised by any stretch. If what you're saying happens, that more is better. I will say this though, Adam, because you brought this up that,

you know, we are probably, especially based on ADP, we're down on Hopkins. We are higher on DJ more probably than anybody else, you know, and that's not even showing Ben's rankings on our rankings. You know,

Dave, Dave's a little bit down on more by comparison. Heath and I have him. Heath, you said you moved up to six. I'm just looking at our rankings right now. So he's six for you. He's seven for me.

Dave has nine. I've been trying to do my due diligence. I know Adam knows this, but I've been trying to listen to some other podcasts. And people are excited about DJ Moore in round three. We take him in round two. You know, and I did a draft for another magazine last week. I got DJ Moore early round three. Shocked that he was still there. Paired him with Godwin, similar to what round three, uh, shocked that he was still there,

uh, paired him with Godwin similar to what you did then, but it was with Saquon Barkley. So I went Barkley, Godwin, DJ more. And, uh, I was like, just send me the trophy now because, you know, just getting those three players, I was, I was ecstatic about it. Um, but we're, we're, I think a little bit higher on DJ more and you can make a case that he's a, he's a top five guy. And that goes back to what I was saying at the start of the show that you can wait on receiver a little bit and pass this top six.

Allen Robinson is going to be good. Hopefully Juju bounces back. You got Galladay and Calvin Ridley that are going to have, you know, potentially monster seasons. It's a Cooper cup. You know, it's such a, it's such a fun position this year that you don't have to take one of these guys early. It's just hopefully we get 2018 where all these guys are monsters.

But I think there's going to be a lot of good wide receivers and a lot of good wide receiver play. Well, let me bring this up about Goblin, though, because Moore had 135 targets in basically 14 games. He played 15 technically, but basically 14 games. I don't know if he had a target in that game he left. He had two targets, caught a pass. He played six snaps. Okay. 133 targets

then in 14 games. Godwin was on pace for 137 or 138. I think 137 targets in 16 games. That's really not a lot of targets for a guy that you want to finish top five overall. I mean, it would be, I guess, for Tyreek Hill

because his yards per catch... It'd be 12 less than what Thomas gave you in 2018. But Goblin is up there in yards per catch too. He's actually very comparable to Tyreek Hill, which is crazy, but it's not a ton of targets and the Bucs had the fourth most pass attempts in the NFL last year.

And they added Gronk. And they added Gronk. Now the tight ends did combine for over 100 targets. I think like 110. Where did the Panthers rank last year in terms of pass attempts? They were first, but I'm more confident that they're going to have to throw a ton

and their new offense is going to be a pass-heavy offense than I am. I think the Bucs will be better. And why wouldn't you run more? Why wouldn't you protect Tom Brady a little bit? They were second. The Falcons were first by 51 pass attempts. I would say there's a better chance of Moore having more targets than Godwin. It's really more like the Godwin thing.

Does that target volume concern you? Is that a problem? I think the other thing with Moore is we keep saying they added Godwin. The Panthers added Robbie Anderson. It's not like he's not going to be involved. Yeah. Yeah. And did you hear Curtis Samuel is going to have a big year?

Yeah. And Samuel is a concern, too. And Jamie made a good point about the touchdowns. And as he said that, I realized, you know, I'm probably more optimistic about Moore's touchdown potential than others. He's right, though. He's only scored six touchdowns on 142 career receptions. That's not, though. He's only scored six touchdowns on 142 career receptions. That's not very good. I will say that he had 146 receptions

in his college career, and he scored 17 TDs. So he was good at it in college. This is regression coming in a hopefully big way. I just don't know if he's going to be like Godwin feels like he could be 10 plus touchdowns.

I don't know if Moore can do that. He can have a season like that touchdowns. I don't know if more can, can do that. He can have a season like that, but I just don't know if he, if he will. And so that's what separates it for me a little bit. Yeah, sure.

And I think I'm just a little bit more optimistic about it, but it's fair to, to not be. And he, you're obviously you're out. You're right there. You haven't backed back. Yeah.

The important thing is like, he's going to score more touchdowns this year. We'll find out this year. If it's like his best season, if he's keen to score more touchdowns this year. We'll find out this year if it's his best season, if he's Keenan Allen or T.Y. Hilton, where six or seven is the good touchdown season you get from DJ Moore, or if he actually has that top five upside. Next topic then, Tyreek Hill, second for Ben,

and fourth, I believe, for Jamie and Heath. That's Tyreek Hill ahead of Julio Jones and Devontae Adams. For me, it's a format thing. Non-PPR, I would take Hill over Jones, but in PPR, I just think Jones, what he should be able to do reception-wise, puts him ahead of Tyreek for me. He was the best wide receiver in non-PPR

in 2018. Is that right? Yes. And in PPR scoring in what was about as good as it gets for him, finished number three. So I don't know that I have a hard time, and it was a very good season for wide receivers. I have a hard time picturing him being better than that year,

especially like we talked about, could Meikle Hardman improve a little and take a couple targets away? I worry a little bit about with Clyde Edwards-Elair and the way they've used Damian Williams, having both those guys on the field in the red zone, that so many of their touchdowns seem to come from inside the 10 with guys running these jet sweeps or these trickster-type plays. And Tyreek Hill scores on a lot of those.

Those are the perfect types of plays also where Damian Williams and Clyde Edwards-Elair will be used as well. So I think there's a little bit of a competition concern, but we're arguing two versus four. We have to. These are important decisions. Well, it's the best wide receiver for the best quarterback.

And no disrespect to Travis Kelsey, different position, but this is his guy. This is the guy you want to have if you love the Chiefs and everybody should love the Chiefs from a fantasy perspective. So it's worth taking him. And if you like him have if you if you love the chiefs and everybody should love the chiefs from a fantasy perspective so um it's it's it's worth taking him and if you like him too you take him too you know it's you can't really argue i think taking any of these guys over i think anyone

but tom i think with with hill one of the deciding things for me and it's not really a knock on on jones or adams but the offense that even you know they led a lot and they still threw a ton in in situation neutral uh such you know situation neutral situations i i there they threw even in um one score games in the first half and and and way more than any other team they're going to be pass heavy even if they win a lot of games they're basically not influenced by the fact that they lead teams. They still throw. And he's tied to the best quarterback in the NFL. And again, that's no disrespect to Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, but those guys aren't on that level. Just Frank. I mean, I think Julio has

tons of upside because Atlanta will, I think, throw a ton as well. I'm concerned about, yes, Adams should have 30% of the targets, but Green Bay falling even lower in pass attempts to a really low number if they're very successful offensively. And that would, I think, cap Adams. He'd still be probably a top five receiver where I have him ranked. I have him third. I agree with these guys that he's very good, but I think it would cap his ceiling a little bit.

I think Tyreek ceiling is essentially unlimited. He's always been productive. He's mentioned 2018, how good he was. He was good last year, went healthy, very good. He was good in the playoffs.

What's his catch ceiling though? Cause you say it's, it's, it's unlimited. That's I think the issue, cause he can be 1500 yards. He can be 15 touchdowns. I don't think that's 15. That's I think the issue. Cause he can be 1500 yards. He can be 15 touchdowns. I don't think that's 15.

That's not that unrealistic. It's probably only 90 catches. Yeah. I agree. Like his ceiling. I, when I say his ceiling is unlimited, I mean like he has the potential to,

to like shatter records for long touchdown, long touchdowns in one year, like kind of like a rainy Moss type player. Right. Like remember when Randy Moss used to have these monster seasons, cause he would catch so many long touchdowns together with him and mahomes and in this offense tyreek has the potential to have like eight or ten long touchdowns in a season which is crazy to even talk about but that would give him a massive yardage ceiling he wouldn't be a hundred catch guy tyreek hill in his last three's see if I have this handy stat here.

Yes, I do. He scored 26 receiving touchdowns. 14 of them have been from 40 or more yards out. Fun stuff. It's crazy. Yeah, he's... You know what team he plays twice a year? The Raiders.

The Raiders. They're going to sign Tyreek Hill, by the way, the Raiders, just in case you hadn't heard. All right. Anything else, guys? Anything else you want to fight about? You know, I think what Ben says about Adams is interesting in how run-heavy they

could be, the Packers. If they are bottom five in pass attempts, that's a bad, bad sign for Devontae Adams. You don't get elite wide receivers. I don't think they're going to be as good, though, running the ball. And even if they throw 500 passes,

which could get them close to bottom five, and it would be quite a bit lower than last year from what I recall, he's still a 150-target guy. Yeah, he's the best bet for 30% targets. Even better bet than Michael Thomas probably. Makes sense. Hey, Adam. Yes? What did I do now? What's your top five receivers?

What's the format? Half PPR. Half PPR. Michael Thomas, Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, and a whole bunch of running backs. Because I don't really feel super comfortable taking anyone else.

What happened to Adam Thielen's top five receiver? Yeah. Not happening. That was one of your big takes. First it was Amari Cooper. Did I really think Thielen was going to be top five? You said he could be number two, actually. I did. And I believe that. I believe that think Thielen was going to be top five? He said he could be number two, actually. I did.

And I believe that. I believe that with Thielen. If they have to throw the ball a lot... Now you believe it? No, I'm worried about how much they're going to throw the ball. Did I really say that? Here, let me defend it. Number five for me, I guess, would be Chris Godwin.

He's really good. Yeah. Running backs. So, thank's really good. Yeah. I don't, yeah, it's running backs. So thank you for asking Jamie. Let's read some emails. Fantasy football at CBS. I.com is from Michael. Hey,

JD Turk, Elliot and Carla scrubs scrubs with Zeke's damaged off. I don't really know if I agree with the premise of this question, but with Ezekiel Elliot's damaged offensive line, does that substantially help his PPR potential and unfortunately downgrade Dak's wide receivers? No. What's the damage besides Frederick leaving? Right.

All of that is a no. Their offensive line is still well above average. It's not damaged. It's not bad. It's just not leaps and bounds better than every other offensive line. It had been at times in Zeke's not damaged. It's not bad. It's just not leaps and bounds better than every other offensive line. Like it had been at times in Zeke's career earlier. And there's no way that Zeke's going to suddenly cut into the receiver's

target share. That's, that's the wrong, you're going the wrong way on that. Okay. From Dozier. I was auto drafted the following team in a PPR league, Matt Ryan,

Julio Jones and Cooper cup, Christian McCaffrey and miles Sanders. This is pretty good. Tyler Higbee, Robert Woods at Flex. And he also has the Chargers DST, not the Rams. Anyway, the question was, oh, he has Cam Akers on his bench as well. He's got a lot of Rams. The free agent pool is thin at wide receiver.

So I'm trying to trade either Woods or Cup for a wide receiver two-level player to relieve my concentration of Rams. I love to trade and get... Well, this keeps going here. But are you concerned about all the Rams he has? He has Cup, he has Woods, he has Higby, and he has Akers on his bench. He has all the Rams except for golf. Basically, yeah.

So he's trying to trade one of the receivers for another receiver I would sell Cup because you'll get more in return for him based on what I think most draft what rankings will tell you so I guess what's the format?

PPR I mean this may be something you can pull off for DJ more if somebody's looking at a different site I also like you have enough really good players on this team I'm not so worried about your fifth sixth and seventh best players or fifth sixth and ninth best

players all playing for the Rams yeah and the Rams like weren't really that great offensively last year, and still, if you had Cup and Woods, you did well. They were an above-average offense, yeah. Right, the concern would be if Akers is bad. He's just a bench player. He's just a bench player

for him, though. Right. Oh, you don't have to worry about it, he said, right. Alright, Tony from Los Angeles. Hey, Corey, Sean, Eric, and George. I mean, it's a world. Good job. Ben, you, Eric, and George. What do you mean, to the world? Ben, you're on fire. Wow. I know you guys have talked about this a few times and have mostly

said to go with the wide receivers available in the late first round, like Devontae Adams, Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, etc. But I just wanted to ask one more time, LOL, would I be crazy to pick up a player such as Austin Eckler, Miles Sanders, Kenyon Drake, Nick Chubb, or even Josh Jacobs with a late first-round pick somewhere between 8 and 12

over those wide receivers in PPR? I'm just not crazy about picking a wide receiver in the first round besides Michael Thomas. I'm getting to the point where if I pick at the back end of round one, I want to go running back, running back. I guess my question, Jamie, is... I'd want one of those receivers. When wouldn't you go running back, running back then?

I'm almost at that point, unless I get Thomas and Adam. Heath, what did you say? I'm sorry. I want one of those. If Adams is there, I'm not taking any of those running backs over in PPR. I'm in a 14-team draft right after this. We record this, which will be done when this is released, and we have the eighth pick, and so we won't pick again until 21st.

And me and Chris Towers are doing that draft together. We're talking about taking Miles Sanders at eight because in that format, we don't really feel comfortable getting another running back at 21 necessarily. And if we have to take DJ Moore there, we'll take DJ Moore there. But we're probably going to start Sanders at eight. I think you can do it.

Yeah. I mean, it just depends. There is no chance that your team does not start with Miles Sanders, DJ Moore, and A.J. Brown. You realize that? Like, there's no... It's definitely happening. What could go wrong? I mean, what could...

Nothing's going to go wrong. No, the only... It might not start with DJ Moore. I might try to get Moore in the third. We'll see. I'd like to see the fight that would ensue. I don't know if Chris is still as passionate about David Johnson, but because running backs are going to go so heavy in that draft, if at 21, you're fighting DJ Moore versus David Johnson. Oh, God, that would be brutal,

because I could never live with taking David Johnson in the second round. What if he's there in the fourth round in this 14-team league? Oh, for sure. David Johnson will not be in the fourth round.

Yeah, I don't think he'll be there. I would consider him there, yeah. I took Melvin in the fourth round recently. Okay. Good show, guys. Thank you very much. Tight ends.

You know, Jonathan Taylor will be there in the fourth round, though. You guys already know the whole draft plan, apparently. Matthew Stafford, Mike Gusecki. Let me see if I can guess the consensus top five at tight end.

Kelsey Kittle. Waller. Waller. Yeah, no, sorry. Andrews Ertz Waller. That's my guess. Heath and I both have Andrews Ertz, I believe. Yeah, Kelsey Kittle, Andrews Ertz Waller. Yeah. No, sorry. Andrews, Ertz, Waller. That's my guess. Heath and I both have Andrews over Ertz, I believe. Yeah.

Kelsey Kittle, Andrews, Ertz, Waller. Am I right? It's Kelsey Kittle, Ertz, Andrews, Waller. Damn it. Oh, well. Ertz is over Andrews in the consensus, even though the two of us have him over Ertz. Dave must have Andrews fifth. Oh, that's a good point.

Let's see. I'll tell you right now. Hold on. Or. Or the rankings are wrong, is that what you're saying? Ertz. No, he's got Andrews fourth. Let's see. I'll tell you right now. Hold on. Or. Or the rankings are wrong. Is that what you're saying? No, he's got Andrew fourth. Andrew's fourth.

Hey, whatever. It doesn't matter. We'll talk about all of them. It's the Raiders. It's not the Ravens. All right, guys. Thanks again. Great show.

Appreciate it, everybody. Leave us a nice Apple podcast. If you send us your emails, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Tight ends on Thursday. Mailbag on Friday. Join our – watch our YouTube channel. Join our Facebook page.

And for Heath, for Ben, for Jamie, I'm Adam. Have a good one, everybody. Talk to you on Thursday.