Fantasy Football Today - Toughest Players to Project: Barkley, Zeke, Michael Thomas and More (07/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 5, 2022

Vote for us for Best Sports Podcast and Best Male-Hosted Podcast! http://podcastawards.com/app/signup/ It's not easy to figure out the roles for Juju Smith-Schuster, the 49ers pass catchers and the Broncos pass catchers. We don't know what to expect from Michael Thomas. We'll try to hash it out on today's show! We start with some key stats (3:50) for some of these players who are tough to project. We're talking Saquon Barkley's inefficiency, Tim Patrick's red zone role and Michael Thomas without Drew Brees ... Will Juju Smith-Schuster get back to his old self now that he is on the Chiefs (15:15)? Which team's passing game is tougher to project: Denver or San Francisco (24:15)? Does it make the most sense to just wait for Tim Patrick if you want a piece of this passing game? And how the heck are you supposed to come up with projections for Michael Thomas after missing basically a year and a half (33:15)? ... We debate Saquon Barkley (38:40) and Ezekiel Elliott (43:30). Jamey tells you why he's waiting for Tony Pollard and skipping Zeke for the most part ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome back from your holiday weekend, everybody. Hope you had an awesome 4th of July. And today we're talking about players who are tough to project. We're going to talk about Juju Smith-Schuster, Broncos passing game, 49ers passing game, and a lot more. All right, guys. Welcome back. Hope you had a great three-day weekend. I've got to tell you, I don't like to brag. All right, guys.

Welcome back. Hope you had a great three-day weekend. I got to tell you, I don't like to brag. I made the most disgusting burgers ever yesterday. I cannot believe how bad my cooking was. I really hope you had more success. Why was it bad? I think I cheaped out and I just bought crappy meat.

I don't even know. How did you cook them? On the stove. I don't have a barbecue. But even still on the stove, I can make better burgers. Like on a frying pan? Yeah. But I've made plenty of burgers on a frying pan. You bought bad meat and you cooked them poorly?

I'm not allowed to have – in a townhouse, a lot of times you're not allowed to own a grill. Did you season them at all? I did, yeah. I don't know what happened. They're just terrible. They were so bad. Were they terrible just by your standards, or did people that you cook for critique them? They all lied to me and said they were fine.

And, you know, shout out to ketchup. Ketchup can turn basically anything into edible. So, shout out to ketchup. Ketchup can turn basically anything into edible. So shout out to ketchup. So now you're drafting Patrick Mahomes first overall. Yeah. Did you guys have a good fourth? Yeah. Sad news with Hank Goldberg passing, our colleague, for the last several years.

So rest in peace, Hank. Thank you for all the good knowledge that you brought to our network at CBS Sports HQ and obviously all the work you've done in your career and certainly being a nice person to us that got a chance to know you. Other than that, it was – I shouldn't say other than that. Obviously, tragedy in Illinois as well. Crazy day, I guess. Yeah other than that. Obviously, tragedy in Illinois as well. Crazy day, I guess. Yeah, it was.

But in any event, personally, it was a good day. Yes. All right, good. Glad you had fun. And Hank Goldberg, yeah, passing away. And somebody that Jamie and I grew up listening to on South Florida Radio. Big influence for us, I'm sure. And he'll be missed.

All right, we're going to get into the show here. I want to remind everybody to tune in to youtube.com slash fantasyfootball today at 1 p.m. Eastern on Tuesdays, every Tuesday, so that's today. If you want to watch a live mock draft, you're going to watch it. What kind of draft are we doing today? I haven't decided.

Okay. I'll figure it out as soon as we're done. Okay. I'm waiting on Dan Schneier to wake up and say that he as we're done. Okay. I'm waiting on Dan Schneier to wake up and say that he's in the draft. Okay. Well, you know Schneier's a party animal. So I assume that he's sleeping since when I texted him,

it says his notifications are off or on, whatever, or no notifications. No, he's always like that. It's so strange. Who turns their notifications off? It's strange. I think that's – you mean like in Slack, right? No, on his text, not his phone. Oh, on his text. He does it on Slack as well.

He's weird. All right, I'm going to give you some of my favorite stats for today. I want you to tell me if you care about them, how much you care about them. So the names I have that we're going to talk about in this Tough to Project episode, Juju Smith-Schuster, Broncos passing game. Jamie and I discussed that on FFT in 5 yesterday. Michael Thomas, he's in the thumbnail, so I'm required to bring him up. Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, 49ers passing game, Aaron Rodgers.

Juju Smith-Schuster, he's played five seasons in the NFL. This is his slot percentage in those five seasons. Percentage of times lined up in the slot. 51%, 59%, 63%, 79%, 78% his last two seasons. 78% basically slot rate his last two seasons. Wow. Does that matter to you? As you project him on the Chiefs?

It's just another example of the wide range of things that have happened throughout J.J. Smith-Schuster's career. And maybe you can say he's averaged 8.6 yards per catch each of the past two seasons. The first three years of his career, I think he averaged 13 or four 13.7 for those first three years. So it's, it's not hard to put those two things together and say the yards per catch really cratered when he moved into playing this level of the time.

Okay. How about this one? This one definitely has to matter. Jamie Cortland Sutton's played four seasons, missed most of one of them in his four seasons. The Broncos have not ranked higher than 23rd in scoring. They've been 24th or worse in passing touchdowns. They've thrown 16 to 21 passing touchdowns in those four seasons. Between 16 and... That's terrible. So obviously, it changes things with Russell Wilson there. Dramatically.

And that's the hope, is that it's going to change dramatically for him because Russell's going to clearly be the best quarterback that they've had since peak Peyton. And hopefully he's peak Russell and maybe the best Russell Wilson that we've seen because that, I think, is why you're drafting the Broncos receivers where they're going. They were being drafted in similar range last season, maybe the year before as well, even with the terrible quarterback scenario.

Sutton, after his breakout second year, unfortunately with the ACL tear and Jerry Judy, we were to whatever degree excited about last year, even with the combination of Drew Locke and Teddy Bridgewater. So now you bring in Russell Wilson and the hope would be is that here we go. You know, this is a guy that supported two top 10 wide receivers once upon a time

with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. And hopefully he can do something similar with the receivers here. So hopefully Russell Wilson makes the best of this Broncos receiving core, whichever of the receivers you're believing in, certainly at the price as well, based on their ADP. Here's another one for that same group, Heath.

Tim Patrick, each of the last two years, has led the team in targets inside the 10-yard line. And he's more or less led the team in red zone targets. He's basically been tied with Noah Fant each of the last two years. So I don't know if that even matters, new quarterback, but Tim Patrick has been a presence for them near the end zone. Yeah, and I think he's either led or been very close to the lead in yards per target and yards per catch and yards per game as well.

It's really, it's one of the biggest, I mean, there's lots of reasons to not know how to project the Broncos. The difference between Russell Wilson's history and Hackett's history and the wide receivers having never played with a good quarterback. But I think one of the biggest ones right now is just figuring out how much is Tim Patrick going to be involved? Because if he stays as close to those other two in production, then what Jamie said, yeah, Russell Wilson can produce two top wide receivers. I don't think he can produce two top wide receivers if there's a third guy that's getting close to the same amount of work. By the way, Cortland Sutton,

obviously I don't know how much they actually weigh, but they're both listed. Sutton and Tim Patrick are both listed at 6'4", either 216 or 212 pounds. So they both give you that kind of big physical presence that could be pretty exciting near the goal line. Michael Thomas is another guy we'll talk about. What has he done without Drew Brees in his career?

In 2019, he played six games with Teddy Bridgewater. He was on pace. Well, in six games, he had 640 yards and three touchdowns, so averaged well over 100 yards per game. And in 2020, he played four games with Taysom Hill, and his pace was for 17 games, 128 catches, 1,458 yards, zero touchdowns. He did not score a touchdown in 2020.

But, you know, Jamie, for what it's worth, Michael Thomas, 10 games over the last three seasons because we won't count 2021, but 2019, 2020, sorry, so the last two seasons he's played. Michael Thomas has been a superstar, except for the touchdown thing with Taysom Hill. But in terms of yards, in terms of catches, a true superstar without Drew Brees.

And hopefully Jameis is better than both of those guys, the non-Drew Brees guys. And I think he could be. I think he probably should be. And so the question becomes, it's twofold with Michael Thomas. A, is he going to ever get back to the level he was physically before the ankle? Forget about production, just physically. Can he do the same things he was able to do?

Will the ankle allow him to do that? And the second part of it is, he is with the most talented receiving core he's ever played with. And so you add Chris Olave, you add Jarvis Landry, you still have Alvin Kamara. And so can Thomas dominate targets to the same level with a different quarterback with this other group around him? And so it's making me a little nervous, you know, to draft Thomas as a surefire starter. I have no problem. If he is my number two receiver, I would prefer at this point that he's my number three. And I can't think of a comp of a guy who's missed a year and a half, is 29.

I just, I don't know. I can't draw back. AJ Green's the closest, right? Okay. So how did closest, right? Okay. So how did that go? Not great. Well, didn't he have a 1,000-yard season, right, Green? Let's look up A.J. Green. Am I wrong on that?

He's a good one. I get the injuries mixed up with him. Okay, so he played nine games in 2018. He missed all of 2019. Oh, this is perfect. I don't know why this is so hard for me to figure out. And then he was absolutely dreadful in 2020. He played 16 games and had 523 yards his last season with the Bengals.

And what did he have left? But that was his age 32 season, not his age 29 season. Last year, he had 848 yards and three touchdowns in 16 games. His career is basically, I mean, once he suffered that injury in 2018, since then, he just hasn't been a relevant wide receiver. But three years older than Michael Thomas.

Okay. Thank you, Heath. Thank you for making me less excited about Michael Thomas with that comparison there. And last thing is Saquon Barkley. 25 games since he sprained his ankle in 2019. So that's three seasons ago. He sprained his ankle,

came back. Since then, he's averaged 3.9 yards per carry. And this has been a much different, much less explosive running back. I don't know how connected everything is, all the injuries, but 25 games,

3.9 yards per carry. It's been a long time, Heath, since we've seen that Saquon Barkley that everyone fell in love with. Ian, I don't think anybody really believes that guy totally exists anymore, but he doesn't have to be. The hope with Saquon Barkley is that he can get the big workload and kind of Najee Harris his way to a top 12 finish. I hope so.

Well, is that you see it that way, Jamie, that it's a workload thing or that it's a vintage Saquon thing. I think it could be a combination of both. I think you look at, he's still young and, you know,

hopefully removed from the injuries, enough time removed from the injuries that he could still get back to that level of play. But I think it's also, you know, the things that are happening around him, you have to feel a little bit more encouraged about, you know, the coaching staff, the play calling should be better. The offensive line play should be better. The quarterback will hopefully be better. So this is a guy I don't have a problem

buying back into, you know, it's, it's not a first round buyback as, as we saw at points last off season, you know, which kind of, you know, ended up thankfully falling into the second round, but I think, you know, getting him at the back end around three beginning back in around two beginning around three, it's, it's a good investment to make because if he is right, he has still has, I still think he has top five upside. And I don't think it's a good investment to make because if he is right, I still think he has top five upside. And I don't think it's just because of the work. I still think the talent is there.

All right. I have exciting news. I need everyone to do us a big favor here. We are a nominee for the best sports podcast. That's sports, not sports sports. We are a nominee for the best sports podcast category and the best male hosted podcast category. It's not a best host. It's just a male hosted.

There's a female hosted and a male hosted category. Two categories on podcastawards.com, the People's Choice Podcast Awards. All right, if you want to help us out, we're nominated. We need you to get us to the next round. Go to podcastawards.com or you can go to podcastawards.com slash app slash sign up. Toggle down to the We would love to win it this year, so let's do it. I'm going to put a link at the top of the episode description for you to help you out. But it's the Podcast Awards, the People's Choice Podcast Awards, podcastawards.com. We're a finalist or we're a nominee right now in two categories, and we'd love for you to vote for us there so we can get to the next round and win this thing.

I think if we win, which means you win, best male podcast host, you have to give away 50 podcast league spots and make multiple leagues. I want to be very clear. This is not a host award. This is a best male hosted podcast. But you should win it.

You deserve it. You're the best. It doesn't matter. There is no category for that. Thank you. I appreciate that. But that's not what this is. So it's just nominating our show.

Please do it at podcastawards.com. Heath, rank the, or rate, rate the, no spoilers, don't say anything about it, just your enjoyment of the Stranger Things two and a half hour finale, one to 10. Oh, this is going to be tough without no spoilers. Just give a number can i i have it it's a different number after like 30 minutes after than it was right when it ended okay you can say that um so i think it was like a six right after it ended and it's like an eight and a half or a nine that's funny i feel i feel pretty similarly yeah so they made a movie for the finale. Yeah.

I thought it was a little long. I didn't love the episode. What I didn't realize as I was watching it was that that was not the end. But there's another season. Yeah, there's another season. I thought that was the end when I was watching it. Stranger Things, The Collegers. I'm referring to it as.

And the other season is going to be like ozark same same format i don't know it's uh they haven't even started filming the next season yet 2024 these kids these kids are so old anyway uh all right that's all we'll say about this is the end no there's another that's what i thought too and and then it wasn't oh that's interesting yeah i would have been a little let down if I had thought that was the end of the series. Yeah. I got to catch up. Let's talk about some players who are tough to project.

The first one you gave me, Heath, was Juju Smith-Schuster. What are your projections for Juju Smith-Schuster? That's a good place to start. These have changed almost every time I've updated projections this year. So he has been one of the guys. 87 catches, 992 yards, 8 touchdowns. Not even 1,000 yards.

Oh, man. That's disappointing. Yeah, but I think his range of outcomes is almost as wide as his range of production over the past five years. It's just so strange. Like, talk about finding a comp. Find a comp for a guy that had a 1,400-yard season at age 22,

caught 97 passes at age 24, and by age 26, everybody thought he was just awful. Okay, so where is Juju Smith-Schuster in your rankings? 24? Looks like he is wide receiver 34 in... Well, that's surprising that he'd be wide receiver 24 with less than 1,000 yards, but I guess there aren't that many 1,000-yard receivers. High catches and high yards for the number of...

Or high catches and high touchdowns for the number of yards, yes. Okay, makes sense. the number of, or high catches and high touchdowns for the number of yards he has. Okay, makes sense. Looks like he's wide receiver 34 in Fantasy Pro's ADP. Okay, Jamie, how about you? Where do you have Juju? I think he's a very good swing at the fence,

number three wide receiver. The scary part about Juju is if you have to draft him in the first, I'll say, six rounds. He probably is going to go in round six. So I guess I'll say first five rounds. If he goes in the first five rounds, I'm out. The NFL has told us what they think of Juju Smith-Huster. In an offseason when contracts for wide receivers are getting thrown about like crazy he gets nothing for the second off season in a row and that's a little scary because like he said is it that he's not going to be able to get back to that level from two years ago um or is he this guy that's kind of been in this crappy role with a quarterback that didn't have the arm to maximize his potential?

I hope it's not the latter. I'm sorry, I hope it is the latter, that it was the quarterback situation. I hope he has the ability to get back to being that guy, but I just don't want to pay the price for it. So the upside is clearly it's a restart on the receiver position in Kansas City. So there's, what is it, 100 100 and no 200 and some on targets available correct without uh the three guys who have left with tyree kill byron pringle and demarcus robinson and so you know replacing those three guys mbs got paid more they drafted a guy in sky more

and and they have juju's missSchuster along with Mikko Hardman. So I think Juju has the most upside of the group still. But as long as you're not paying a premium for him, it's worth the gamble. Juju Smith-Schuster, as a rookie, was a top 20 wide receiver per game. 15th in non-PPR, 19th in full PPR. As a rookie, he finished so strong,

75 or more receiving yards in five of his last seven games. And then a rookie, he finished so strong, 75 or more receiving yards in five of his last seven games. In 2018, he had a 1,400-yard season. He had eight 100-yard games. He had a 97-yard touchdown catch in both 2017 and 2018. He's been much less explosive since then. Is that because of his role?

I think that's when you look at the slot percentage thing that I mentioned earlier, especially the last two years, 80%, oh, 78%, 79% in the slot. So, yeah, this is a tough one. And would you take – yeah, go ahead, sir. That contract he got is so weird too because it really like – it's as if they think he's an enormous injury risk. And he did miss a lot of time, and he missed time three years ago.

But he's only got $3 million guaranteed. But basically, all he has to do is show up and be what he was with Ben Roethlisberger and he's going to make $10 million if he stays healthy. And he'll be 26 years old in November, so still in his prime.

Would you rather have Juju Smith-Schuster or Adam Thielen? Juju. ISchuster or Adam Thielen? Juju. I'll take Thielen. What's the best case scenario for Juju? Top what? 12th. Number one?

I mean, that's the best case. I mean, could he be? Could he be just a total superstar? I mean, the best case scenario would be, I guess realistically, it would be his Tyreek Hill. Not from how he gets it done, but just that he gets it done. I don't think there's any reason to think that he couldn't be. I mean, he's playing with the best quarterback he ever has.

He could be. What was he? Wide receiver eight or something in 2018? He could be that guy. In 2018, what was he, wide receiver eight or something in 2018? He could be that guy. In 2018, he was, yeah, per game he was wide receiver 12 in non-PPR, wide receiver eight in full PPR with 111 catches, 1,426 yards, seven touchdowns on 166 targets. The scary thing for Juju is that he gets stuck in the slot again.

Not that it's going to be bad for him from a production standpoint with the Chiefs because, as Heath said, it's the best quarterback he's played with, and I think his ADOT will improve even if he's in the slot. But if he's in the slot and doesn't have these downfield opportunities because MBS, who has had a great offseason by all accounts and does a little bit different things than Juju does at this point in their careers,

and then if Sky Moore starts to come on and Mikko starts to come on and has production, like you can see Juju off the field potentially, you know, there, there is no, there's no attachment to him to the same level that there is the other guys that they brought in.

You want to hear something interesting statistically. Okay. So Tyreek Hill this past season with a very different profile, much shorter routes, higher targets, more catches, finished as wide receiver six. He had 159 targets and 111 catches. Juju Smith-Schuster, in 2018, finished as wide receiver eight. He had 166 targets, seven more than Hill had last year. The same amount of catches, 111 catches. But Juju turned those 111 catches into 1,426 yards.

Tyreek Hill turned them into just 1,239 yards. So I guess we saw a similar season for Juju in 2018 compared to Tyreek Hill last year, but Juju was a lot more efficient. A lot more. He had almost 200 more yards. So I don't know. Kind of just interesting. Food for thought.

What's changed for Juju? That's what I want to know. Like, why did the Steelers put him in this role? Because they thought he was great at it? Or they felt he was poor at something else? He was always a slot receiver. Like, we should clarify, right? He's always over 50%.

Right. So, okay. So, why was he more of a seam threat, a downfield threat? Why was he doing different things in the slot than he was the last couple years? Like, is it because he's lost a step and can't run? Is that the case? And I'm not saying this like I know. I'm just, I'm curious.

Like, is it because he's, you know's physical and tough and they like him in that role as a safety valve? I mean, we're going to find out a lot about how the Chiefs use him, how Mahomes uses him, how Andy Reid uses him, and hopefully he bounces back and can be that guy again. Like we keep saying, he's only – is he 26? He'll be 26 in November. Okay, so he's only 26, but at some point it's like,

maybe he's an old 26 and not just a young kid anymore. All right, let's take a break here. When we come back, we're going to compare the San Francisco pass catchers to the Denver pass catchers. Which one, which group is harder to project? We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. 49ers probably getting a new quarterback in Trey Lance. Certainly seems that way.

Denver absolutely getting a new quarterback in Russell Wilson. So which group is tougher to project and who is your favorite in each group? It's going to be Debo Samuel, I'm sure. Maybe who's your favorite to draft in each group? Heath, lay it out for me with San Francisco and Denver. Which one's a tougher situation to project? I think for the pass catchers, the tougher situation to project is the 49ers.

Just because we don't, like, we know so little about Trey Lance. We knew so little about Trey Lance coming into the NFL. And then he played two and a half games last year. We didn't really learn that much more. And we don't really know how much kyle shanahan's going to design this offense around lance running how much they're going to instruct him to stay in the pocket versus getting out of the pocket and we don't really know the

target share percentage between iu samuel and kittle because we've had so few games over the last couple of years with all those guys healthy. Jamie, which one's tougher for you? San Francisco. You know, I think, you know, with Denver, it's like we talked about at the beginning of the show, you know, and he said, it's three guys really you got to be concerned about. And can Russell Wilson support all three to the level where they'll maximize their potential? With the 49ers, it's just just it's a lot of wild cards it's the trey lance wild cards the biggest one but it's how much will debo be in the same role

that he was in last year how much will uh you know kid will stay healthy and will he you know become better or worse with with trey lance which you know hopefully is not not going to be worse uh how much was iuk in the doghouse and then fighting his way out of it? Does he stay out of the doghouse? So, you know, there were so many things at play for them last year. And, you know, hopefully the new quarterback situation is not messy and Garoppolo's not there to just make it even worse. So I think it's just a little bit more.

It's tougher. Debo is just one of the toughest players to have to project anyway because, you know, which Debo are we getting? I'm going to give you guys some ADP. I want you to tell me who you like the best at their ADPs. Tim Patrick. For San Francisco. I don't know about that.

San Francisco, Debo 17th overall. George Kittle 41st. Brandon Ayuk 99th. That's higher than I have all of them. Who would I like on that trio? Yeah, who do you think has the best value? Debo Samuel 17th, Kittle 41st, Ayuk 99th.

Kittle. Pass. Okay, how about for Denver? Sutton and Judy. This is on Fantasy Pros. Fantasy Pros ADP. Sutton and Judy are back-to-back. They're both 67th overall in ADP,

and Tim Patrick is in the 170s. Patrick by a month. Okay, I thought Tim Patrick was going to be closer to 100, but yeah, 170. Yeah, Patrick, then Sutton. And I like Patrick and Sutton both at their values more than any of the values for the 49ers. be closer to 100 but yeah all right 170 yeah patrick then sutton and i like patrick and sutton both at their values more than any of the values for the 49ers and i gotta say alberto tight end 18 at 158 i throw him in there too of these two teams based on value i would

prefer to draft them patrick one sutton two judy three kittle four Sutton 2 Judy 3 Kittle 4 Debo 5 I guess yeah I don't I've got Alberto around 180 so that sounds like maybe he'll be the guy it sure sounds like it's going to be a two tight end

thing there I think Dulcich is going to be involved Alberto by the way not a ton of targets or anything but he was 5th among all non-running backs in yards after catch per catch. Running backs own that stat.

Running backs and Debo Samuel, basically. Catch ball out of the backfield, you're going to get a lot of yak. But of all players that were not running backs, Alberto was fifth behind Debo, behind Jamar Chase, behind Rondell Moore, who had the lowest ADOT I've ever seen. Well, seriously. And so that was impressive. And he has an 80% career catch rate, Alberto. So he's got some impressive metrics, but just not a lot of targets in his career.

All right, I got to talk about, I want to talk about the Broncos, guys, because I think as I was looking further into it this morning, I think I'm making a mistake with the way I've been drafting lately. I think. I've just been a little too high on Sutton. And I think, you know, cause I've been taking him around 40th and that's because I don't think I can get him closer to 60th or whatever, but his ADP is 66. I know who I'm drafting with. I don't think he'll make it there.

But even still, I think Judy probably will. And it just makes more sense, I think, to wait to get a piece of the offense. Just draft the last two? I don't know. I mean, look,

there's so many cases to be made. I keep looking at the numbers and I'm being pushed and pulled in different ways. You know, Courtland Sutton has the only one who's had a great season, right? A good season. Yeah, he did that with terrible quarterback play. He was a top 20 wide receiver overall in 2019.

He was 28th per game. He only caught six touchdowns. Denver only threw 16 touchdowns that year. But he obviously has the best track record. And without Jerry Judy in weeks two through seven, he was on pace for almost 1,500 yards

and 156 targets. He was much, much better than Tim Patrick, who wasn't bad, but he was much better than Tim Patrick. But then when all three of them were healthy, Jerry Judy was the best. By a pretty decent amount. But that was with quarterbacks that won't challenge downfield. Teddy will challenge downfield. That's true.

I mean, Russell will challenge downfield. Teddy will not. And Judy last year was in the slot 74% of the time. Now in 2020, he gradually became an outside receiver. Judy started as a 81% slot guy in his first four weeks. And then in his last nine games, I think,

he was in the slot only 10% of the time. He was an outside receiver. So he's done all things. But it just makes sense, right, for Judy to be the slot guy. Sutton and Patrick are pretty much exclusively out wide. Sutton's a slot guy. So I think there's more chance for explosiveness and touchdowns out of Sutton. This is why they're on the show, guys.

Because I think it is very tough. I'm torn. I keep getting pushed and pulled. I will say Patrick at 171st is obviously just gold. I thought, in our leagues, I think he's more like 100th. And maybe he'll get there. I see a lot of reasons to like

all of them. And I see a lot of reasons to dislike all of them. For you drafting Sutton where you are. And then when you get to your leagues without analysts, you'll get him later. Yeah. That's what I'm hoping. And you know, you're,

you're seeing the ADP at 67. I'm going to guess it rises a little bit, especially if Judy's still banged up when camp starts in a couple of weeks. So maybe he gets to 55. You know, I don't think he's getting into round four. He's my favorite. So I don't have a problem drafting him in that range because I do think that,

you know, if you're looking at range of outcomes, his ceiling should be the highest based on Russell's skillset and his skillset. But again, as he pointed out, and I think it's, it's,

it's kind of overlooking the fourth guy to KJ. Amler is going to have a couple of big set. But again, as Heath pointed out, and I think it's kind of overlooking the fourth guy too, KJ Amler is going to have a couple of big weeks. You know, it's not going to be consistent. He's going to be one of these guys that, you know, you look at, you want to talk ADOT, you look at his ADOT by the end of the season, he's going to be among the league leaders. But we're talking maybe he's going to max out

one or two games with five targets a game if everybody's healthy for Hamlin. You know, he's not going to be a high-target guy. I didn't realize how consistently Tim Patrick played more than Jerry Judy. Oh, yeah. And Sutton. Oh, yeah. I forgot to bring that up.

Snap counts were much higher. I don't know if they were much higher, but they were higher. Judy did not have a game of higher than 78% snap share. Yeah, now look at week one, though. Week one's so interesting because he got hurt right after halftime and he played about 49% of the snaps or something like that. 47, yeah. I wonder when he came back, was he just not fully healthy

and they were taking it easy on him? But I think maybe he doesn't stay on the field when it's two receiver sets. I think that's probably more likely, right? Since he was in the slot so much. So that's, and maybe those are run plays. Maybe that doesn't matter. I remember kind of stressing out about that with Antonio Brown earlier in, in the, in the last season, right?

We were trying to figure out who's the best Bucks receiver. I feel like Brown's snaps were certainly lower because he probably came off the field when they were in two receiver sets, but it probably just didn't really matter that much. There's a lot to digest here. All right, let's go to Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas was once upon a time the number one receiver and set the receptions record, which he still holds.

And as I mentioned, he's been terrific without Drew Brees, of time the number one receiver and set the receptions record which he still holds and as i mentioned he's been terrific without drew breeze but his target share in those tasem hill games for example was about 32 percent uh he's got more competition as jamie mentioned so heath how do you project a guy who's missed a year and a half was once the best receiver in football or one of them and uh comes back to a different quarterback that he hasn't played with. He hasn't played with Thomas, has he? Darts, lots and lots of darts. No, I've got Sutton, Juju, and Michael Thomas

all projected within two and a half fantasy points of each other. So they're all kind of in that, I don't know, my official projection for Michael Thomas right now, 90 catches, 1,049 yards, 6.5 touchdowns. What is it? One more time, 90? 90 for 1,049, 6.5 touchdowns. I've only got him at 121 targets right now. I think it'll be really interesting to see

how pass-heavy the Saints are last year. There were like two or three games they really let Jameis throw it before he got hurt. And the rest of the time, it was a really run-heavy approach. Now, maybe they don't have Alvin Kamara, so that changes that. And then we talked about it earlier.

The competition for targets from Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave is unlike anything Thomas has seen. Jameis, I just want to point out, people might be thinking this is the old Jameis Winston. He was a very different quarterback last year with the Saints. His air yards per pass attempt, much lower. Wasn't that aired out, kind of reckless gunslinger. So they kind of breezified him a little bit.

Do you think Winston and Thomas are a good fit? I do think so. You know, I think, you know, you look at what hopefully will happen is that, you know, we'll get a few more downfield throws for Thomas. But I think, you know, again, Thomas just kind of has to, you know, probably prove it. You know, make sure he's sure he's, he's back to being that guy again, you know, so he's never going to be 140 plus catches. He's never going

to be a hundred and was he 180 targets a year? He's not going to be that guy. And so can he be what he was in the sample size with Taysom Hill with a couple of touchdowns? Can he be what he was in the sample size with Teddy Bridgewater? Maybe not as many yards, but again, hopefully finds the end zone a little bit more. So as long as you're not overvaluing Michael Thomas, and I feel like I've been doing that in some of our drafts. I think, you know, Adam, you and I had a, I think, similar feel about Thomas, like, you know,

still okay drafting as a number two guy where I think Dave and Heath have kind of been out. I don't speak for Heath, but it feels like that's kind of been the case. I'm kind of leaning more that way you know the more you know you hear positive things about jarvis and what a lot of a hopefully will do and you know just kind of taking the whole spectrum of still tom's not being 100 i like the fact that he's running routes yeah but yeah you know get to camp and be ready to go well these aren't the only guy like this this range of wide receiver i agree i like

i'd rather have michael thomas is my number. I'd rather have Michael Thomas as my number three. I'd rather have Juju as my number three. I think you can throw Amare Cooper into that group. You can throw Adam Thielen with his touchdown dependency into that group. You can throw Alan Robinson with his miserable, no good, very bad belongs in that group. There's this group of wide receiver threes where it's not really that hard to picture them having wide receiver one seasons, and it's also not that hard to picture them just being absolute anchors on your roster. And this is why I want to dedicate at least one episode. Later this week, we have a Best Wide Receivers in Rounds 4-6 episode. And we'll see how it goes,

but that's Thursday, I believe. I might make that Thursday and Friday because honestly, this is some of the most pivotal drafting you're going to do. You get league winners in this range all the time. And you're going to have to decide

between Darnell Mooney, whom we don't know if he's really a special player or not. I'm not going to eliminate that possibility, but he hasn't been. But he could be top 10 in targets. And Michael Thomas, right? I mean, you sit there and go,

I'm going to take Darnell Mooney over Michael Thomas? Well, a lot of people are. Their ADPs are very, very similar right now. They're in the 65 range. Michael Thomas slightly ahead of Mooney. So we're going to try to sort through that mess. That'll be later in the week, and I think it's really going to be very helpful and very productive, and it's going to shape your strategy. You're going to go, all right, I'm going to target these guys. I've got five wide receivers I like in rounds four through six. I know I'm going to be able to get two of them. That's going to influence

your first three rounds, in my opinion. All right, Jamie, what's the upside for Michael Thomas? And Heath, what's the downside? I mean, the upside is we've seen it. That he gets back to that level of player.

Or 80% of that player. 75% of that player. You think he has top five upside i don't think he has top five upside anymore top 12 yes he has top 12 upside heath downside he literally does not play football he announces on august 15th that he's having another surgery that the saints thought he should have had a year ago. And he's not going to do it again. All right, let's go to Saquon Barkley here. Saquon Barkley, in our drafts,

he's been kind of creeping up into that 1-2 turn. Sorry, 2-3 turn, 2-3 turn. Around 24th overall. I'm going to check his official ADP on Fantasy Pros. Yeah, 26th. So that's where he kind of comes into play, just after Leonard Fournette. And let's see, just ahead of David Montgomery,

who's the next running back off the board in ADP, but he's five picks behind Saquon Barkley. Okay. So it sounded like earlier, like Jamie has more faith that Barkley could still be a special player where Heath is looking more towards workhorse status. Heath, what is hard to project about Saquon Barkley?

What's the challenge? Well, I mean, first off, like Juju, there is multiple years ago this really, really good efficiency that wasn't dependent solely on volume. And so is that possibly attainable? You've got a new coaching staff that we really don't, they're talking a lot about how they want to throw the ball to Barkley a bunch, but that's not something that he's done in his history very much. You've got an offense that scoring wise has been one of the worst in football over the last couple of years.

And we don't know how much to expect that to improve this year. Jamie, is he difficult for you? Sigmar Barkley? I mean, he's obviously going to be difficult from the standpoint of new coach and, you know, coming back from just three years of injuries,

two significant, you know, losses from production from a production standpoint. But we were kind of joking about this when we were saying you brought up the trivia question, who was Emery's favorite running back in this class? The backups behind Saquon Barkley are terrible. Matt Breida probably being the best of that group. And I don't think he's coming off the field.

So you have the workload standpoint, as Heath is saying. But this is still a guy that, if things go right, has, I still think, top five upside. And I don't know if it has to be a lot going right, because if he stays on the field, the workload will hopefully lead to production. But if he starts to get back to anything close to the level of player that he was, then the talent will also win out. So I like what I'm hearing.

I like the, you know, there was a story, you know, from New Jersey media, Zach Rosenblatt wrote it that, you know, he's as motivated as he ever been. You know, if you buy into those things, I think it's relevant for this. The addition of, you know, Evan Neal on the offensive line, I think is going to be huge. Brian Dable, I think is going to be huge for him. So I'm excited about Barkley. I'm mostly excited about the price tag.

You know, again, you know, you're getting a guy that you could hopefully get in, in the beginning of round three. That's pretty good. So pedigree matters even I think at 25 years old. So I don't want to say it's a perfect comparison, but there are a lot of parallels between Juju and Saquon. You've got the one full super elite season. You got the one partial, very elite season. You've got a bunch of super elite season you got the one partial very elite season you've

got a bunch of injuries and inefficiency ever since and now you've got a new situation you're right and then you know one guy's on the chiefs and one guy's on the giants but one guy was the second overall pick in the nfl draft and one guy plays a position that matters a little bit more right from a high-end standpoint. I'm not saying that Juju should go ahead of him, but who's got a better situation? Barkley's got this workload,

obviously. Does not have to worry about competition. Juju is on the Chiefs. So who's got a better situation, do you think, Barkley or Juju? I mean, Juju has a better chance to win a ring.

No, from a fantasy standpoint. It's Barkley. I think Juju has a better chance to have his circumstances carry him. If neither one of them can get back to that eliteness they had before. It's a great word. I think Juju could just be okay

and Mahomes could carry him. Maybe. I think Barkley's going to be pretty involved in the passing game. And I think it's going to save his bacon. Can you really expect Kenny Galladay and Kadarius Toney to stay healthy at this point? And even if they do,

he'll be involved in the passing game. But what if they don't? Well, you have Shepard coming off and Kelly's too. Why are Kenny Galladay and Kadarius Toney more likely to get hurt than Zaquan Barkley? No, they're not. But I don't think,

if Barkley's not involved in the passing game, I don't think it's because Daniel Jones is going to have so many options that he just doesn't have to throw to Zaquan Barkley. You know? Right. But they're an injury-prone team. They've been one of the most injured teams in the league

for the last four seasons or something. It's very strange. Let's go to Zeke. Yeah, I could see why Zeke is tough to project. I always remind people, we say it all the time, but Ezekiel Elliott, the first five games of the season, he was on pace for, let's see, about 1,700 yards and 20 touchdowns

and 31 catches only in those five games. He actually got hurt, I think, in week four, but was total crap for the last 12 games. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry, was playing hurt, and was just useless. I mean, pretty useless, but he was bad. He was really good in pass protection. Actually, I don't think he was, according to PFF.

He wasn't? According to PFF, I don't think he was that special, that much of a standout. I think they trust him more than Tony Pollard, but I'll actually look that up right now, but I don't think Zeke was any type of standout in pass protection. But I can see why he's tough to project, Heath,

so let's go through your... How about you compare your Zeke versus Pollard projections? Okay, I've got, and I think that's one of the more difficult things is how many touches will they get because you've got Jerry Jones who thinks Zeke is still Zeke and Adam Azer who thinks Tony Pollard

should have a chance to win the job in training camp. I do. I bet you Cowboys fans are on Adam Azer's side more than Jerry Jones' side on this one. I've got Zeke at 226 carries, 47 catches, 1,288 total yards, and 10 touchdowns.

10 touchdowns, okay, not bad. And I've got Pollard at 140 carries, 38 catches, just over 1,000 yards, and five touchdowns. Okay. And where is Zeke in your rankings? RB? 18. 18.

Jamie, Zeke Elliott? In a similar range. I think... I'm afraid that the numbers he just gave you is the ceiling for Zeke at this point. I don't know if he gets much better than that. If Pollard's healthy. He's a round three pick in ADP.

How do you guys feel about that with Zeke? Don't like it. I'd much rather take a receiver in that spot. Yeah, I've got him 35th. So like I could see a situation at the end of round three where I might do that, but I'd like it better in round four. The struggles I have is not just Zeke compared to the running backs and even the receivers, because that's the range for certainly for pits. And then when you start to compare him to what's better for your team, you know, Waller or Kittle,

uh, whatever order you like those guys like Zeke, he scares me. He really does. You know, I mean, I, I see the path to quality production.

I don't see the path to elite production anymore. Remember he he's lost two members of his offensive line. I know they brought another, you know, uh, reinforcements. Um, their first round pick, you know, has a long way to go. I forget his name.

But it's not the same offensive line. I know they still have two of the premier players at their positions in Tyron Smith and Zach Martin, but it's not the same group anymore. You lose Lyle Collins and Connor Williams. It feels like this, you know, last year was the fall off the cliff here. You know,

I know we keep saying the knee, the knee, the knee, but he played through it. And how much of it is, was he doing that for the betterment of his team? Or is that the excuse they're using because the production was bad? I buy it because he,

his production. I'm just saying, saying you know anytime you have guys that play through injuries that are supposed to be this significant and okay when he plays well it's not a problem but when he plays poorly it's everything we hear about uh by the way uh the the first round pick um i think is the youngest player in the in, as I recall, the offensive lineman they took. But, yeah, sorry, I forgot his name as well. It was Tyler Smith, one of the youngest players in the draft. So let's just take a look.

You guys can compare Barkley, or sorry, Zeke in ADP to David Montgomery. Montgomery. Montgomery. Montgomery. James Conner. Conner. I've got Zeke just ahead of Conner right now. Cam Akers. Akers.

I have Zeke one spot ahead of Akers right now. Antonio Gibson. Elliot. Elliot. Josh Jacobs. Elliot. right now antonio gibson elliot elliot josh jacobs elliot right now i have jacobs but i'll probably change that soon yeah you know it's probably not where he ranks among running backs necessarily zeke is just 32nd overall that's the middle of the third round you still still have, well, you've got Kyle Pitts. You've got the three tight ends after the top two.

You've got a lot of quarterbacks. The wide receivers, you still have, obviously, all the guys we're talking about in rounds four through six, but they'll still be there in rounds four through six. So I don't know. Maybe that is the right time to take Zeke if you want him. Feels a little early, but all right. That is Ezekiel Elliott. get we'll get to camp and

he'll look fresh best shape of his life and you know you'll hear reports jerry jones he's still our guy we're gonna feed him blah blah blah for me i'm i'm looking to take pollard more so than amz especially in the third round price tag i just's lottery ticket upside. It's a guy that can still play in tandem with him. I'm out on Zeke in the third round. Pollard, 82nd overall. Zeke, 32nd overall. Yeah, all day. Let's read some emails.

Sorry we didn't get to Aaron Rodgers. I think I know why he's tougher to project. This is from Jack. Dear Jason, Freddie, and Michael. I think I know why he's tougher to project. This is from Jack. Dear Jason, Freddie, and Michael. I know them. Heath, you know them? Jason, Freddie, and Michael? Should have put Vecna in there.

Should have put Vecna in there. I also don't really think there are any Friday the 13th callbacks in Stranger Things. It's not a spoiler. Stranger Things since day one has been an homage to 80s classics. But Friday the 13th is so bad

that I don't see any elements of it in there, and that's a good thing. I would disagree, but... That you see elements in there of Friday the 13th? I think we should discuss that on a later show. I'll come up with a list of the elements. Okay, Dynasty 12-team PPR league. Should I trade Cam Akers straight up for Aaron Jones?

I also have pick eight in the rookie draft. Would that be too high for Christian Watson? So would you trade Cam Akers straight up for Aaron Jones in a 12-team PPR league? And would you take Christian Watson eighthatson eighth overall that's his range so if that's the receiver you're targeting you know i think the thing that and he if you can correct me if i'm wrong but the the receivers that that we look at in that spot i think it's three guys um maybe olave if he falls but it's dots and more and and watson yep those are the three that you kind of have to talk yourself into

which is the best, the guy with Mahomes for the next several years, the guy with Aaron Rodgers maybe for two years, or the guy with who knows what in Washington for however long Carson Wentz is there. For me, I would take Sky Moore ahead of that trio, so if Moore's there at eight, I'd prefer him. But Watson's ceiling is certainly high, so if that's the guy you want in terms of trade i'd probably rather hold on to acres unless your team is definitely win now then you take aaron then you make the trade yeah i'd

rather have jones and acres but it's really close and it's determined by where you're at um the wide receiver there is a chance because james cook and sometimes sky more can sneak up ahead of chrislave. And if that happens, you're getting Alave at eight and you just love it. But I prefer Dotson over those three and Watson is my third favorite. This is from Mike. I can keep three players for varying amounts of time. I'm going to keep Josh Allen in the eighth round for two more years. So he needs two more. Aaron Jones in the third round for one more year. Mike Williams in the sixth round for three more years.

A.J. Dillon in the seventh round for three more years. Travis Etienne in the 11th round for three more years. And Rashad Bateman in the 12th round for three more years. Last two. Last two. Actually, we only have one more. This is from Mitch from the best college town in Northern California. Dear Mark, Tom, and Travis.

That'll be Blink 182. We can keep any... What's that? Stanford. Oh, best college town in Northern California? I'm fine with that. Stanford, yeah. I've never been there.

Sure. Okay, anyway... I don't know where any of the colleges are, really. Where's Cal Berkeley? I don't know where Cal is. Yeah, I don't either. I'm going to look it up. I feel like that's in the northern.

I think that's more northern. We can keep any player on our 2021 roster this year at their 2021 draft cost. Who would you keep? Debo in the fifth, Gabriel Davis in the 14th, Elijah Mitchell for free. And it's also looking like I could get the 11th or 12th spot in our snake draft. So which second

round players would be good targets to compliment the keeper? Again, it's Debo in the 5th, Gabriel Davis in the 14th, or Elijah Mitchell for free. You only keep one? Yes. It's hard to give up Mitchell for free.

Is there really any difference between that and Gabriel Davis in the 14th round? No. No, but if Mitchell hits. Yeah, Debo in the fifth, they get that superstar in the fifth. What do you think, Heath? So, Jamie's going Elijah Mitchell, Heath? Yeah, I'm trying to figure out if Stanford's really in Northern California.

No. Yeah, I wasn't listening at all. I'll accept that. I'll just go with Jamie's answer. I mean, look, if you want the safe play, Debo and the fifth is safe. The other two guys have certainly different variables,

but either one I think makes sense. Davis or Mitchell. Eileen Mitchell. Okay, I'm trying to find a map of California colleges. Too many. A lot of colleges in California. Did you realize that?

Lots. Lots. Lots of land in California. Did you realize that? Lots. Lots. Lots of land, too. Big Ten country. A lot of people. Big Ten country. What about Southern Cal? Is that in the north?

Yeah, I think San Diego, Los Angeles. All right, UC Davis is pretty high up there. Where's Stanford? This is great content. So listen, this is why you need to vote for us on podcast awards. Also, I wanted to come back to one thing that Heath said earlier. You said throwing darts when you were talking about Michael Thomas. I imagine you were pretty good with a dartboard in a bar.

I think you probably ran that. No? No, not particularly. I was better at pool for a while, but I haven't played that for a while, so I'm probably terrible at that now too. Pool and golden tea were my go-tos. Waking up with a hangover and an extremely bruised and sore hand was just kind of a normal thing in college.

Golden Tee was rough. Yeah, Golden Tee. I was not really good at any games, but I liked the ones where you have to find the differences in the two pictures. You know those? What? You know that? Yeah.

I would imagine that sober guy at the bar would be best at that game. You think so? Everybody else is like, they're the same picture. Nope, not me. Not me. Terrible at bar games. All right, thanks, everybody, for watching and listening. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.

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