Fantasy Football Today - Trade Talk, TD Regression, Fantasy Feud, PIT-CLE Preview (11/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 20, 2024

For those of you still making trades, we've got some buy low (3:30) and sell high (12:00) candidates. Go get Brian Thomas Jr., Deebo Samuel and Bucky Irving while you can, but who should you be trading now before it's too late? ... News and notes (19:15) and then we talk about touchdown regression (20:30). Which players have been unlucky with TDs? Does it matter? Maybe we can expect more from Davante Adams, Brock Purdy, George Pickens and Geno Smith ... Previewing Steelers-Browns (25:05) and we play Fantasy Feud (38:50) and do some Grade the Trade (48:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays at his feet. This is gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. There's still time to make trade offers in your leagues. And if there's not, well, at least we'll tell you some players

that we think are going to have big finishes or maybe struggle towards the finish line. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today everybody. On this Wednesday, it is presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. The whole gang is here, Adam, Dave, Heath, and Jamie. And we'll be doing a little by-laws sell high, also grading your trades, talking about Thursday night's game, which should be kind of interesting.

Pittsburgh and Cleveland, some difficult start or sit decisions. And are you guys ready to play the Fantasy Feud? Yeah. That's the game. That's the game today. Okay. How do you feel about that?

I'm excited. I'm ready. I was so excited to play. Who has more? Nobody's ever excited for that. Oh, come on. Who has more? I had one for Adam. I thought I was going to get him. Come on. Bring it on. Who has more fantasy points this season? Jaden Daniels or Bo Nix? I don't think you're asking that question unless the answer is Bo Nix. Jaden Daniels. It's Bo Nix. Jaden Jane Daniels. Oh, bone next. How about that? Ask them. What's that? Two tenths of a point. Wow.

So we can probably look at a different site and see that Daniels has more. Probably, probably. Okay, obviously neck and neck. All right, let's get right to it. It's rookie of the year. It's a good question right now. Yeah.

It is not the slam dunk that it once was. No. And I think a bone next finishes strong. I think he's going to get it. I'm going to check the odds. Jaden Daniels is still minus five 25. Whoa. Plus three 50. That's a good wager right now. Plus 2000. He breaks the catch record. And one of those guys falls off. Did Pucca win rookie of the year? Yeah. Probably Stroud, right? Yeah.

Yeah. That's why he's plus 2000. But if, but if Bo Nix gets to the playoffs and Jay Daniels doesn't. Oh, that's a wrap. Yeah. And vice versa. If Jay Daniels makes the playoffs and Bo Nix doesn't. It's a fun finish. All right. Let's do some by lows. Dave, you don't have a lot today. That's fine. Let's narrow in

on a couple that we really like. Who are some by lows? I don't know why I did that. Bucky Irving is the running back that I think is a good by low. If I needed a running back desperately and I went to the waiver wire yesterday and Amir Abdullah was the best name there, I'm probably making a noise like the one I just made 30 seconds ago. But I think Bucky Irving can be half for cheap. I love the Bucks schedule the rest of the way. He actually has more carries than Rashad White in each of his past 3 games. he leads Tampa Bay in rush attempts, in rush yards, with rushing touchdowns. Only 4 fewer receptions than Rashad White in their past 4 games, 46 fewer receiving yards. So that might be the lone edge that White has over Bucky Irving. But my hunch is that Tampa Bay went into the bye week and said, How can this offense get

better? And they said, give Mike Evans more targets and let's let Bucky Irving run a little bit more. So cheap running back could have a strong finish. I like him as someone to go and buy low on. Can you do the same with Rashad White, too? You could, but I think Bucky's got a little bit more upside, especially in those half and non PPR leagues. They got the Giants, then they have four of their last six games beginning this week and the Giants aren't good are against teams that ranked 26th or worse against running backs including two against Carolina one against Dallas these are two of the three worst teams against running back

so we love the schedule we've been loving the schedule for a while for Bucky Irving. Okay Jamie you're up by low. Brian Thomas but make sure it's a very cheap offer for someone who, uh, who knows what the rest of season looks like and what the quarterback situation, but I mean, you gotta be happy with how he performed with Mac Jones in the last game. And now they're down another receiver and gave Davis. And so unless they're going to shut him down to, which I would be surprised if that's the case for as cheap as you might be able to get him for the upside, he still brings.

I would try to make trades for him. Would you give up Devante Adams? It feels like that's a lateral move, so I'd probably just keep Adams since he has a quarterback. Okay. What about Ridley? Same. Okay. You don't want to stay lateral, but I get it.

What'd you say, Heath? I think I'd rather have Ridley. Yeah. I mean, it's just, it feels like you're trading to trade at that point. Right. Does this matter to you? You look at his schedule, Brian Thomas Jr. and there's a lot of red. You go to a guy's player page and the good matchups are green, the bad ones are red.

So Houston is on, just on paper, just on paper. Houston is good. That's his first matchup after the buy. And then his next four are against teams that currently ranked second, third, seventh and second against receivers. But probably when I tell you the teams you won't think you won't buy it. Tennessee Jets, Raiders Jets. Well, is this little Jerry Snead going to be there? I don't know that he's ever playing again. He's out again this week. But yeah. I again, I'll bring up what I said on the, on the show yesterday.

Like the type of player I think you can get Brian Thomas for is like someone's handcuff and something very cheap that you may not be using. My by-law is Debo Samuel. Um, it's been a, it's been a bad couple of weeks for Debo, but we had a three week stretch where he scored at least 12, yeah, basically averaged 12 PPR fantasy points without scoring a touchdown. The biggest problem for Debo Samuel is he has one receiving touchdown all season long. The rushing average hasn't been good either.

He still has 20 point upside any given week. Other than this just absolutely awful game most recently, he's scoring 11 to 12 most weeks without a touchdown, which is a starting wide receiver. People are panicking about Debo. They think that Juan Jennings is the number one. And when George Kittle comes back, it's going to be even worse. I think Debo Samuel is still a must start wide receiver rest of season. Okay. And I have a segment today that I'd like to get to called touchdown regression. Looking at players who have been maybe a little bit unlucky with touchdowns and

Brock Purdy is like kind of, I don't know if he's screaming aggression, but his touchdown rate has been 7.6%, 7% and 4.2% this year, which isn't all that bad, but it's bad for him. But in the green zone inside the 10 yard line, Brock Purdy's touchdown rate in three seasons was 75% as a rookie, 44% last year and 25% this year. He's just been awful in the green zone basically. He's completing only 46% of his passes.

He has the fifth most green zone pass attempts in the NFL, but I think he's only thrown like seven touchdowns from that distance. So that's, I'm hoping that he starts throwing some more touchdowns. He's been running for touchdowns, which hasn't been helping Debo Samuel, but there could be some more, you know,

there were a lot of touchdowns last year for the 49ers passing game. They haven't really been so far this year. Okay. Are we sure that Debo's good? Like, I mean, healthy, when I say good. I know he's a good football player. Are we sure that he's like, you Like, I mean healthy when I say, I know he's a good football player. Are we sure that he's like, you know,

he went through a lot of stuff. And since he's come back, he has only one game with over, I think it might be 80 total yards. Well, you know, I was watching, I watched his, you know, his routes from week 11 and I was like, man, he's not getting open at all. So I went to the ESPN analytics page that has the grades for everyone's open score.

And Debo Samuel has the fourth worst open score among 121 wide receivers, but it's low every year. He'd never, for whatever reason, that metric, I looked at the last four years, he's been a great receiver in the NFL, two of the last four years. He's been a great receiver in the NFL two of the last four years. He's never had a high open score. So I don't know what to make of that.

Last week he played a season high 87% of the snaps. Yeah, okay. See you on the team next year. All right, let's move on. I never talk about the articles on the website on cbssports.com slash fantasy. But if you go there, it's just a great resource. I'm sure a lot of you already do read this stuff

from Dave, Jamie and Heath, but there's DFS content. The trade chart is out. Obviously the waiver wire column starts it. Heath previews every position. Comprehensive matchup breakdowns. Just go to cbssports.com slash fantasy. We have other fantasy sports that we cover too. And look at all the written content

because it's outstanding. Now, if you haven't signed up yet for Bet MGM, use the bonus code fantasy, and you're gonna get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with Bet MGM. Here's how it works. You download the Bet MGM app and you sign up using the bonus code fantasy,

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We rolled the dice one last time. Landman, new series now streaming exclusively on Paramount+. All right, Dave, you wanna start with some sell highs? The sell high I have is Tyreek Hill. And like I said on our on our show on CBS Sports Network on Tuesday, you might feel like whiplash because we've talked about how Tyreek Hill is a great buy low buy low.

And now now that he's had a big game, I wonder if there's enough excitement about him in your league where someone might overpay and I'm not saying get him off your team and all that stuff. This is, of course, as we, we have to say this every time, we mention a sell-high. It means sell-high. If you can turn Tyreekill into something that is a top-7-ish player at running back or wide receiver, I think you should do it. I don't like how he has, I think it's 3 games with 8-plus targets since Week 1. I think he has, he just doesn't have good numbers. I'd have to go back and check my notes to see just how bad it is. But we know what the contingency downside is for him. He's got a wrist injury. We know what his numbers are

like when there is no 2 on the field. And even when he's had 2 on the field and he's playing, the numbers haven't been awesome. He had a great catch against Las Vegas for a touchdown. He, oh, here's what it is, Adam. Since week 1, you know, his longest reception has been 4, has gone 4? No. 30 yards. No. That's not the Tyreek Hill that we know.

So I think he got a downgrade expectations on him overall. But if others in your league think that he's just starting to break out because he scored in consecutive weeks, take advantage, sell high on Tyree kill. Oh, would you rather have Tyree kill or George Pickens? Pickens is higher in the trade chart. I would rather have Pickens. Any other give me a few other big give me like a running back

who's higher in the trade chart or a couple than Tyree kill. Give me a few other big give me like a running back who's higher in the trade chart or a couple then Tyreek Hill Mm-hmm. Give me a second. All right You should just try to trade him for somebody that's on a buy week. That's obviously not going to be Someone considered like chase Brown might be somebody you can get for chase Brown is higher than him on the trade chart James Cook is higher than him on the trade chart Kenneth Walker the third Tons of running backs are someone's asking Hill or neighbors.

I've got Hill ahead of neighbors because I'm just worried about what's going to, I mean, first of all, we should be worried about neighbors based on what's happened like the last four weeks. Yeah. And now here comes Tommy DeVito, who's a noted caretaker who's, you know, not so good in the pocket. We'll see how he does this time around with a better offensive line. Theoretically on paper, it's better, but I, I'm not so good in the pocket. We'll see how he does this time around with a better offensive line, theoretically on paper it's better. But I'm not so excited about Malik Napers. Okay, Jamie, you're so high. Anthony Richardson, flip him now.

You know what I mean, if you can. Clearly it's tough to trade quarterbacks, but this is a terrible matchup for him this week against Detroit. And has a buy in week 14. If you want to start him in week 13 against the Patriots, if he comes out of this game playing well, I certainly get that. But if you can trade him for something that can help you in another

position, if your quarterback situation is okay, now's the time to do so coming off this monster game where people may think, okay, he solved. So I would try and get rid of him if you can. So Tyree kill for Dave, Anthony Richardson for Jamie and Heath, your sell high. So this is like the sell, the highest sell high of all sell highs. Like you've got to really go get a King's ransom. He's been awesome.

But Joe Mixon in the fantasy playoffs is at Kansas City against Baltimore at Tennessee. Those three teams are the only three teams in the NFL giving up less than 3.7 yards per carry to running backs. It is the three worst matchups in terms of running back efficiency. I like you got to go get an RB one plus. Like you should be able to get breeze plus or B John plus, but Joe Mixon has been incredible.

He looked in his most recent game better than he looked when he was 23 years old. Yeah. Like you're awesome. Yeah. Which is a great time after he does that in an Island game to go get the moon. Would you turn them into McCaffrey? I'd rather have McCaffrey. Yeah.

He's the number one running back per game is averaging over averaging over 20, I think over 21 points per game, but yep, he's got the worst, you're right. Worst schedule. I, you know what? I think I'm going to try to do that. I have Mixon and McCaffrey in one league, but the other league I'm going to see, I'm going to do it right now.

I'm going to see if I can make it happen. I hope that they're tied on the trade chart in PPR, but in non PPR, I do like mixing better. I just, I McCaffrey looked, he had good explosiveness in his first game. I thought he kind of took a step back in a second game. Also, I want to give everybody a fair warning. The sun is back.

Yes. I don't know when it's going to happen, but it's coming. So it turns out that in both of my Joe mix on his back, sorry that I left. Both of my Joe mixing things I also have McCaffrey so I guess I can't make that trade but I would you turn them into camera? No, I wouldn't either I'd rather have mixing. Kyron Williams. No God no. Resolve making one for one trade we're gonna downgrade a little bit at running back in theory and add somebody else.

I'm taking your temperature on these guys. I want to know where mixing ranks compared to them. Breeze Hall, Kyron plus Breeze plus. Yeah, I think, I think he is right. Like if you're trading him, you're trading him for two players, two starters. All right. I'm not going running back for running back. So by low on Bucky Irving, Debo Samuel

and Brian Thomas Jr. sell high on Tyree Kill, Joe Mixon and Anthony Richardson. Someone said in the chat they traded Richardson for Debo Samuel. Nice work. Okay. Let me get your thoughts on two running backs who have scored combined one touchdown it was receiving in the last four games. So they've gotten four straight games, both of them without a rushing touchdown and they are Aaron Jones and Kyron Williams. And how do you feel about buying low on Aaron Jones and Kyron Williams? And I'll just say Aaron Jones, I think his longest run in his last four games is 12 yards. But they we do like

their roles. They've had some bad touchdown luck lately. Are they by lows Aaron Jones and Kyron Williams? Yeah, we're actually going to talk about this on Sports Network today with Robert Turbin. So if you want a running backs perspective on it, that'll be at one o'clock. They're both in slumps. They both have scored 11.2 PPR points or less in three straight games. 11.2 ironically enough, the exact same score as their best score for all three of them. So who snaps out of it first?

Who has the best chance long term? I'm a little worried about Aaron Jones age clearly is something that you got to be somewhat worried about and This rib injury, you know, who knows how it's gonna impact him moving forward You know, he's a hip injury played through a rib injury played through, you know, give him credit He's had a fantastic season for you know, I think at least for my expectations I thought he would he would you'd be a little bit worse than this But now you're starting to see some of the flaws. And it also coincides with, for what it's worth,

Christian Derrissaw being out, you know, so they lose one of the best offensive linemen in the NFL. Cam Robinson, I think was a great pickup just to try and, you know, find a replacement there, but he's not Derrissaw. And so- There's an injury too, right? I'm sorry. Remember when Jones left the game with an injury,

came back late? It was not like he's been the same since. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think that was- That was two games ago. to either of those running backs on my team and I can't sell high on them, I want the backups on my bench. I think it's just been like we've had a stretch of a month or six weeks where all of their touchdowns were rushing touchdowns. And we've had a couple of games here recently where all their touchdowns are passing touchdowns. It's probably going to even out over the rest of the way. I'm 100% in on buying low on Kyron Williams and pretty much just as out on Aaron Jones. Is anybody interested in on their schedules the rest of the way?

I mean, I looked at their schedules. They both have, I'd say neutral to slightly positive. Jones gets the bears twice. Yeah, I think Jones has a good schedule the rest of the way. Rams not as much. Okay, some news and notes. As we get ready to talk about the Thursday night game,

the Steelers said that Arthur Smith said that he wanted to use Justin Fields more against Baltimore. So just be aware there are two quarterbacks who maybe could come off the field near the goal line. Just that's a speculation. I have no idea. But Russell Wilson could be one of them. And the other would be Cooper Rush, who's going to start again for Dallas at Washington, but they could use Trey Lance in certain situations. Also Derek Carr. Yeah. Brock Purdy has a sore shoulder. Get well soon, Brock Purdy for this game at Green Bay. I do too. You do? It was from the... What happened? It's really, I think it's just like a repetitive thing with the mouse.

Like literally your mouse? Yeah. Computer. Yeah. Computer. Oh man. So this thought maybe you stuff that towel in your roof hole too, too hard and you know, strained it. So this like, can you get like workers comp for that? No. Okay.

That's on the job injury here. Jake Ferguson unlikely to play this week. Brandon Cooks, excuse me, could be back this week. All right. So I want to give some stats here and talk about touchdown aggression. And by the way, I've never felt so invalidated when it comes to a show topic. I wish I had done this poll before the show, but I started asking people, Hey, let's do some grade the trade. Let's get some, I got a lot of response, but then I did a poll. When is your trade deadline already passed

this week, week 13 or after week 13, 59% of the respondents so far said their trade deadline already passed this week, week 13 or after week 13, 59% of the respondents so far said their trade deadline already passed, which really surprises me to be honest with you. That's early. It's usually Thanksgiving week, I thought, for most people. I think usually it's after week 11 and we're on week 12 and usually week 12 is Thanksgiving week. This season it fell a different way.

Okay. Okay, okay. All right, but still, you know, nice to talk about players who could have big finishes or could struggle. So touchdown regression, let me know if this means anything to you. CJ Stroud is at 3.3%. Last year it was 4.6%.

That's a touchdown rate. Geno Smith has a 2.9% touchdown rate. He's third in the NFL in pass attempts, but he's 18th in green zone pass attempts inside the 10 yard line. And in the green zone, Geno Smith has three touchdowns on 17 pass attempts and no Seattle player has more than three touchdowns so far. That was one that really stood out to me guys. Yep. I don't know. The problem is, well, the problem is that like 17 games is not a very big sample size. And so there's no guarantee that it's turning around this year. He's been unlucky.

We should expect him to throw more touchdowns, but he might not. I told you about the Brock Purdy thing. Matthew Stafford is a guy that's not three years in a row for Stafford, where he struggles to throw touchdowns in the green zone. His touchdown rate in the green zone has been 21.4 percent, 33.3 percent and 25 percent in his last three seasons. Very low. So I don't know if that's just going to be a thing now at Stafford. All the touchdowns came last week, but he was having trouble scoring touchdowns before.

All right. Couple of receivers. These are this ones might might be more interesting. Devante Adams has seven targets inside the 10 yard line and one touchdown. Four of those seven have come from Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers has thrown 10 passes in the green zone since the trade for Rogers or for, for Adams. And four of them have gone to Adams. Also theets have the highest green zone pass rate in the NFL. And George Pickens has seven green zone targets and zero touchdowns. So Adams and Pickens are guys that stand out and I'll throw one more Hunter Henry.

You look at three guys who have had a lot of targets inside the 10-yard line and zero or one touchdown catch. It's Adams, Pickens and Henry. Excellent. Oh man, here comes the, here comes the sun. Doing it again. Oh, there it is. I'm in the sauna. I look up for my notes. This is fantastic. Really. Heath, what do you think about Adams, Pickens and Henry? Does any of that resonate?

Yeah. Yeah. I think like you should. And that's why, like I don't completely normalize touchdown rate in my projections, but a lot of times when I'm higher or lower on a guy, it's because I'm expecting a little bit of regression in that regard. I think Pickens is the top 12 wide receiver rest of season, maybe top 10. Adams is a low end number two wide receiver.

Yeah. What was it? Henry? What was it? Hunter Henry? Hunter Henry. Yeah. I get distracted by Dave, slowly disappearing into the ether.

It was good to know you, Dave. A great way to do it. I should, they kind of Henry the top 10 tight end. Oh, okay. Wow. Okay. Uh, some running backs who maybe have had some bad touchdown luck, Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor.

They have 10 to 11 carries inside the five yard line and they've only scored three touchdowns on those carries. And they, of course they have to deal with quarterbacks who score there as well. Um, Aaron Jones, the F four mentioned, he has eight carries inside the five yard line and only one touchdown run from that distance on the season. Well, yeah, on the season only one touchdown from inside the five on eight carries for Aaron Jones. Terrible.

I could have sworn that he had more than that. That's something that stood out to me. And who's the running back that has the most carries inside the five yard line without a touchdown from that distance? It is Javante Williams. Six carries inside the five zero touchdowns. Let's talk about Thursday night football. Pittsburgh is at Cleveland. Let's talk about Thursday night football. Pittsburgh is at Cleveland. That's a thunderstorm that's coming to Cleveland. Okay. Yeah. So why don't we start with that, Dave? Bad weather.

Yeah, it sounds like there's going to be some serious rain and maybe even some snow on Thursday for this game at night. There was one report that said that the winds were going to be north of 25 miles an hour. That's very concerning. Kevin Roth, who does an amazing job tracking the weather for Roto Grinders, he's on social media. He doesn't think the wind will be that big of a factor. If the wind ends up being a factor, and you know me, I don't really like to look at weather until an hour before kickoff anyway to really make an impact in my fantasy rankings. But if there is serious wind, I don't know how you can feel good about starting any quarterback in this game, any kicker in this game, and probably any Browns wide receiver in this game. I think that it would be very,

very tough for Jameis to do what he's been doing if the ball is going to to get stuck in the wind when he lost it, you know, 25 yards downfield. But and I think I agree 100%. I just think it's like, as of right now, Kevin Roth doesn't think it is going to be that windy. Right. So it like he doesn't think it's going to be a factor. If it is tomorrow night. We're not currently expecting that it will be. I'm not starting Janus because of defense. He's facing that because of the weather. There's definitely that too. I mean, you just saw what they did to Lamar Jackson Lamar attempted 12 throws of 15 plus area yards against Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh did a great job against them. Technically they allowed a touchdown. Uh, Zade flowers touchdown was 16 yards and that ball traveled 16 yards. So I'm thinking that it's not going to be a good game for Jamis. He's a bi-week quarterback at best. Trey Lockerbie What about Russell Wilson? Anybody want to start Russell Wilson? Russell Wilson If there's no wind issues, I have no problem starting Russ. Wouldn't prefer not to but this is the type of matchup he should excel in. Trey Lockerbie Obviously, we thought that last week, but...

Right. Well, I did. I don't know if everybody here did. No, I think everyone had him in the top 12 against the terrible Ravens. You know, it didn't happen and he didn't throw the ball downfield against the Ravens. It was weird. He averaged 6.1 air yards per pass attempt. That was his first game below 8.2 air yards per pass attempt. And it was just like a really safe, boring game. He didn't make mistakes except for that end zone interception. And they just kind

of low scoring, low scored their way to a win. Yeah, I thought you have low scoring 36 and a half is the overrun or on this game. That's one of the lowest of the year. So then is there is George pick? Okay, pickings into Joku. Are they the only must starts in this game? Naji Steelers DST. Okay, possible DST for sure.

But Naji you feel like is a must start. Yes. I've got Naji at 21. Okay. Jamie, a rear round there on nausea. I think you guys are pretty similar. I'm a little higher. I mean, you know, he's he's having a good season and I think they're going to win this game easily.

I think a lot of people are going to be starting Jalen Warren this week, given the bye week situation, maybe expect around the normal 10 PPR points from him. Sounds about right. Everyone flex conversation. Got him projected for 8.3, which is right in the middle of the flex conversation this week. It really is. Would you rather start Najee Harris or Cedric Tillman or Jerry Judy? Najee is safer. If you think Najee is going to score a

touchdown, then he's the easy one to start there over Tillman. So he came into last week with a solid three game stretch and then had a very good game against Baltimore. In non and half PPR, I definitely start nausea over the Browns wide receivers. Um, in full PPR, I'd probably start the Browns wide receivers. Naji had four catches for 30 yards against the Ravens who give up a ton of receiving yards to running backs. The Browns give up the fourth fewest receiving yards, but they are a much worse run defense

than the Ravens without Jeremiah, Wusukeramoa. They've really struggled against the run. So it looks like a good matchup. Pickens is a stud. I was actually surprised that Pickens is like, for the season, he's not a top 30 wide receiver per game and non PPR. And I think he's about 24th to 26,

somewhere in that range in full PPR. And it's because he only has two touchdowns, but with Russell Wilson, he's just been outstanding. So you're not gonna sit George Pickens. Yeah, and again, I know a lot of you in the chat probably have some questions about this game. So let's, anything you have, help Pickens. Yeah. And again, I know a lot of you in the chat probably have some questions about this game. So let's anything you have, help me out. Let me know the way you want to go. You want to just since we're bringing to the

chat, I know we're not gonna show a lot of the comments. They're hysterical, by the way, you're doing a great job. Oh, about Dave's. Yeah. One of them was like, Dave's not coughing. What a legend. That was a really good comment. All right, so let's talk about, so Heath, I believe if I'm not mistaken, you had Jerry Judy pretty high in your rankings, top 15 or something. Am I wrong?

Yeah, I mean, it's a terrible week at wide receiver. I've got them projected for 12 PPR fantasy points, which is not generally a top 15 wide receiver. I've got him projected for 12 PPR fantasy points, which is not generally a top 15 wide receiver. But like I agree that the matchup is difficult. I still think Jameis is going to throw 40 passes. Still think you're getting 10 targets for Judy, 10 for Elijah Moore, 10 for Cedric Tillman. And even against a bad matchup, that's probably double digit PPR fantasy points. If Jerry Judy scores a touchdown, he's probably going to score 18 to 20. So let me go through the wide receivers again. I did this on Monday, I did it on Tuesday, but one more time wide receivers with eight or more targets against the Steelers. That's

basically what you can expect right now from these wide receivers on the Browns. So wide receivers with eight or more targets against the Steelers. There have been seven so far and three of them were bad. Garrett Wilson, C.D. Lamb and Devante Adams, the three best that they faced basically, well three of the four best, all struggled less than 12 PPR fantasy points for Garrett Wilson, C.D. Lamb and Devante Adams. Malik neighbors had 14.1 PPR fantasy points on 13 targets. And the three wide receivers who did well with eight or more targets were Josh Downs, Jalen Tolbert and Michael Pittman. So go figure.

But you basically have like a 50% hit rate on eight or more targets against the Steelers. And the Downs and Pittman game, that was when Richardson started, got hurt, Flacco came in. I wonder if the Steelers just weren't quite as ready for Flacco as, as, as they could have been. Because they were preparing for Richardson. And Josh Downs got his numbers on short targets, I believe. He might have had a long play for a touchdown, I don't remember. But I know that his A-dot in

that game was really low. Pittman's was high. And these are all three receivers with the Browns who have high A-dots because that's what Jameis does. He's got the fourth highest A-dot passing of any quarterback since he started taking over. So we're talking about three, four weeks, something like that. I do worry a little bit about their effectiveness against the Steelers who've gotten better defending the deep pass over the last five weeks or so. I think that the ADOT thing is a good point and the Josh Downs thing, he made me think this also, I think maybe I'm liking Elijah Moore a little bit more because he does not have a big ADOT.

Let me see, I've got it right here. His ADOT, since Jameis has taken taken over is 12.55 yards. It's actually higher than Judy's. Judy's basically as well. Well, yeah, okay. It's three games. And it's Tillman who's at 14.1. For the year, Elijah Moore is at 8.6.

Three games worth of a dot, like one long pass could have a pretty big impact on that. That's fair. That's also a quarterback change though. Right, right, it's with James. Who are the other bad wide receivers against Pittsburgh Adam? Garrett Wilson, C.D. Lamb and Devante Adams.

I'm not sure I would draw quite the same line in the sand between those guys. Cause like C.D. Lamb had 11.4 fantasy points. Garrett Wilson had 11.1 fantasy points. Like the bad guys still scored 11. If you're telling me the floor this week for these guys, if they get eight plus targets, it's 11 PPR fantasy points. I'm starting them. Yeah. It's just a matter of as we're going to see this with this team all the time, there's going to be 40 to 46 pass attempts for Jamus. He was 41, 46, 46. So figure somewhere in

that range. You're going to have, as we've seen with the three guys so far in the sample size that we have two great games for Tillman, one bad one, two great games for Elijah Moore, one bad one, three solid games for Jerry Judy, but one spike game. The joke has been sort of the constant there. So anytime he's giving these guys chances to make plays, they're going to make plays. It's just a matter of who's going to be the one that gets sort of left out. Is it going to be because of coverage? Is it going to be because it's just off that day?

It's hard to say. Because the weather be a factor. Oh, yeah. That's another vlog to add on top of this crap fire. All right. So let me, can I give one more stat here? We can move on. I would also like to give one more stat. All right, go ahead.

Since week seven, only one wide receivers had 15 plus PPR points against the Steelers Who was that Terry McLaurin? Okay, stat of the game that I don't think matters I don't think it's going to move you the Steelers have had before last week Derek Henry scored twelve and a half points last week Before that the Steelers had allowed seventeen.5 or more PPR fantasy points to a running back in six straight games. That really surprised me. I didn't even realize that. That's Taylor Rico Dowdell, Madison, Breece Hall, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Austin Eckler. They had been awful against running backs and last week. Yeah. You don't think so? No,

it's too hard to trust Chubb. I mean, he mean, if they get behind, he's going to lose reps. Yeah, he's not going to play. So last week was his week to show us something and he unfortunately didn't do it. Full PBR, I've got Jaylen Warren projected for more points this week. But that's how it goes. Tillman or Myers PPR? I mean, it depends if you think Myers, what he did the first time against Denver is repeatable. I would take Tilman. Tilman.

Nick, I'd start all three Browns wide receivers over Myers. He's not going to get shadowed. No, I'm taking Myers. Nick Chubb or Eckler? PPR, Eckler. It's close and non PPR to be perfectly honest. I might take Echler even in on Echler everywhere for me. Would you drop Christian Watson for Cedric Tillman? I do have Tillman over Watson and full PPR. I'd rather have Tillman. I'd rather have Tillman.

That's probably one of those where I just like look at the waiver wire and not do anything. Tillman or Javante Williams in half PPR. Javante this week. I want to trust Javante so badly because the matchup is so good. I am a little scared that Sean Payton is gonna do some BS with his RBs. That's gonna make me say WTF. So I'll say, I'm gonna probably take the chance on Gervonta, but I'm a little scared to do it.

I would go Tillman. Okay. And Roshan Johnson or Nick Chubb? Chubb. Chubb, but it wouldn't surprise me if their numbers are the same. Last one, Tillman or Pollard, two more. Tillman or Pollard and non PPR. I'll probably take Pollard.

Pollard or none. You know, if there's no Taji Spears, it's Pollard for sure. Yeah, I don't think they're right. Taji Spears in the concussion protocol. And Givante, Nagy or Pollard, we need two. Givante, Naji, Pollard. Just saying Pollard.

Did I say Givante? Givante, Naji, Pollard. Yeah. I'm sitting Givante. I've got Naji the lowest of the three. Heath or Dan PPR? Heath or Dan? See Heath would never lose to Dan in any sporting event.

Agreed. Yeah. No, tennis he would. How long do I get to practice? It doesn't matter. Dan's legit. He's legit. I watched an entire matchup.

Yeah. Underhand stir is not going to work on me. He's legit. He's legit. All right. That's oh, Stewart DST start them and start David Adjoku. He's top seven for everybody and we are going to take a, oh, that's it for Thursday Night Football.

We're going to take a break on fantasy football today. Come right back with the feud baby and then we'll grade your trades to finish things off. We'll be right back. Your teen requested a ride, but this time not from you. It's through their Uber Teen account. It's an Uber account that allows your teen to request a ride under your supervision with live trip tracking and highly rated drivers. Add your teen to your Uber account today.

Oh! Interrupting their playlist to talk about defying gravity, are we? That's right, Newton. With the Bronco and Bronco Sport, gravity has met its match. Huh, maybe that app will hit me a little harder than I thought. Yeah, you should get that checked out. With standard 4x4 capability, Broncos keep going up and up. Now get purchase financing from 0% APR for up to 60 months on eligible 2024 Bronco family models. Visit your Toronto area Ford store or ford.ca.

It's time for fantasy few. Dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun dun. What was that? That's the fantasy food music. That's the family of your theme song. It's sung by me right now. That was not, I don't know what that was. It was not the fit. No way. No, I do. I'm sorry.

Let's go with Heath versus Jamie for our first round here. Give me Heath, give me Jamie. Give me Heath, give me Jamie. The top five answers are on the board. I'm looking for leaders in rushing touchdowns. Heath. Derek Henry. Is the number one answer, pass or play? What the heck, I'll play. Okay, Derek Henry's off the board.

We need the next four leaders in rushing touchdowns. Jalen hurts. He's number two. That's pretty much where I run. I'm pretty confident on those two names. Joe Mixon. He is tied for third. Yep.

There's two others who are tied with mixing. Kyron Williams. Oh, hold on one second. I have to get the buzzer sound. Some host doesn't even have his sounds ready. There we go. I'll get it for the next one. David Montgomery.

Correct. That's a great guy. You got four out of five. You've got Henry Hertz, Montgomery and Mixon. One more with two strikes left. Top five in rushing touchdowns. Is it Bijon? One more guess. Jamie's thinking over there.

Jamie's doing the X thing. I mean, this would probably be pretty dumb, but they are pretty awesome. So Jamiroh Gibbs. Not a dumb guess. That's probably who I would have guessed is incorrect. All right, we've got Henry with 13 touchdowns, Hertz with 11, Montgomery and Mixon with 10.

Who else has 10 rushing touchdowns? Who's number five, James? You said it the other day, James Cook. Yeah, I did say it. When did I say that? Sunday night, maybe. Oh, I don't remember saying that at all because when I saw it this morning,

I was like James Cook has 10 rushing touchdowns. Pathetic, I don't remember that. Yeah, that's still amazing to me. James Cook has tied for third with 10 rushing touchdowns. Jamie wins the round. All right, who will Jamie? That's the easiest win ever. Who will Jamie be playing in the finals? Will it be Dave or Heath?

Dave and Heath, you're up now on Fantasy Feud. Here we go. Top five answers are on the board. I'm looking for the leaders in passing yards per attempt. Heath. Brock Purdy. Is the number three answer. Dave, you have a chance to get two or one.

Oh, yards per attempt. Three, two, one. Yeah, I'm not even going to get a guess. All right, he's pass or play. Oh, what the heck? It's more fun to play. It's more fun to play. I like that.

It means you like the game. Okay, so we have Brock Purdy. We're looking for the top five in yards per attempt. Purdy's number- Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson's number two. Jaden Daniels? So far we have Jackson and Purdy.

We need three more of the leaders in yards per attempt, including the number one answer. Jared Goff. Correct. The number one answer. We've got Goff, Jackson and Purdy. Who's next in yards per attempt? That was the one that Dave knew. No, no. When you came to me and like I, it was on the tip of my tongue. I was like, it's a guy who's got a blue uniform for whatever reason. I couldn't gov. And then when he said Jared Goff, I knew that it was Jericho none. All right.

Jalen hurts. Correct. He's number four. Holy cow. Is he going to take the entire five here? No, I'm going to miss and give Dave the fifth one that you said on Sunday night show. I don't remember saying that golf Jackson Purdy hurts. Who's next? Joe burrow. It seems like it should be Joe burrow, right? But it's not. Yeah.

I'll double check on this. It's not Joe burrow. You're sure about that? No, not. Oh, let's somebody is there. Is there a, I have a question that may influence us. Is there a minimum number of games? Just passer rating qualified,

but there's, it's not like a trick. Let's see where Burrow is. All right, you have five seconds. Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold is number six. Oh. Joe Burrow. That was gonna be my guess. No, Joe Burrow is only 16th.

All right. So we're missing number five. We have Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts. Dave, your chance to steal the round. He already had three misses. You did. Yeah. Okay. Russell Wilson.

Russell Wilson. You know what? I'm going to give you another guess because I don't think. No, he's not qualified. Obviously not qualified. It was played three games. No, he's that he's not qualified to give you another guess. It's like four quarterbacks left in the NFL.

Herbert, Justin Herbert is incorrect. By the way, Russell Wilson yards per temp. Where would he rank? He would not be in the top five. It is Derek Carr. Oh, yeah, Russell Wilson yards per temp. Where would he rank? He would not be in the top five. It is Derek Carr. Oh, yeah, of course, that makes sense. It does it. I never would have gotten. Oh, he's had a bunch of games this year where he attempts like 25 passes. Yeah. All right.

Remember earlier in the year, like the whole offense was throwing deep to Rashid Shaheed. Heath has won. Jamie has won. But I guess we're going to maybe have a tie because David needs another chance here. Dave. No, I know. I'm good. I'm good. You sure? Yes. one, but I guess we're going to maybe have a tie because Dave needs another chance here. Dave. No, I'm good. I'm good. You sure? Yes. All right. Jamie and Heath, Jamie and Heath going for a for round three.

Let's see who wins. This is completely unfair way to play this game. Are you okay over there, Jamie? Yeah, just like the sky was falling. I had felt. All right. The top five answers are on the board. This is an easy category here. Top five leaders in catches, receptions. Dave. Dave, you're not in. Oh, yeah. Forfeited.

Jamie. No, it's Heath. He already said Heath. Go ahead, Heath. Brock Bowers. Brock Bowers is the number two answer. Jamie, chance for number one. Jamar Chase.

Correct, he's number one. All right, you want to pass or play? I'll pass. Okay, he gets the, oh, it's just all heaps today on Fantasy Feud. All right, so we've got top five in catches. Number one is Chase, number two is Bowers. You've got three strikes.

No strikes yet. Justin Jefferson? Justin Jefferson is... Correct. Really? Correct. Justin Jefferson? Justin Jefferson is correct. Really? Correct. Yeah, correct that it's not correct. It's correct that it's not correct?

Okay. Man, everybody's been hurt. This is gonna be some dumb name. Jackson Smith and Jigba. That's a good guess though. He's a top 10. Okay. Alright, so we have chase and Bowers and you have two strikes. Oh, son in my eyes again.

Heath. Is it? I don't know. Yeah, I don't think this is right either. Amon Ross A. Brown. Amon Ross A. Brown is right, believe it or not. I couldn't believe that. He's got like an 83% catch rate.

He's fifth. Dave, stop. I can't believe that either. Good job, Dave. Okay. Got it. That was a good one, Dave. Yes. CD Lab.

Dave, that's ridiculous. Dave just sitting there cheating. CD Lab is fourth. All right. Cheating like the Ohio State Buckeyes might have cheated against the Miami hurricanes in the 2003 fiesta ball. Where did that come from? I don't know.

I'm just making a reference to something. Okay. My wife was like, seriously, Dave? Like even she knows that I'm up to no good. Okay. We have one more. Jamar Chase, Brock Bowers, CD Lamb, Aman Rasayn Brown. Who else is top five in catches? I think Dave was just trying to give me the final clue and I don't know who he was telling me. Don't worry about it. I think he's way off. Garrett Wilson. Damn it, I think he's way off. Garrett Wilson.

Damn it Dave, it is Garrett Wilson. I mean wow, Heath, great, that was amazing. That was amazing. Why'd you ruin Fantasy Feud for everyone? Congratulations Heath. I didn't, Heath got it all on his own. Heath said the names, I didn't say Heath, it's Garrett Wilson.

In an extremely unfair way, Heath has beat Jamie in Fantasy Feud, even though Heath played three rounds, Jamie played two, and Dave cheated for Dave for Heath. So, okay. I'd like to think that I won fantasy feud today. I think we all lost. Let's grade some trades. I'm dedicating my victory to Dave.

Let's grade the trade. All right, from you on, you people on Twitter, thank you for your trades. Johnny traded Josh Jacobs and Tyreek Hill for George Pickens and James Cook. Be. Hmm. We like Pickens better than Hill, right?

Yes. Do we like Cook better than Jacobs? There's slight upgrade. Yes. Okay, so he won on both accounts. Good job. He did. Jordan is in a six point PPR league,

six point for touch, for passing touchdown. One point for a catch. He gives up Jayden Daniels and Jonathan Brooks. He gets Joe Burrow and Ramondre Stevenson. That's a win. Good job. Yeah, that's great. Would you rather have Burrow or Daniels? Is it even close at this point? I think it's Burrow. I think if you're not in need of a win this week, it's Burrow. If you need a win this week,

it's Daniels. We said on Thursday or on Friday after the Thursday game that Daniels is a good by low, right? It's great by low. Yeah, it's got to hope he's healthy. I mean, think about some of the guys that we're talking about here. Daniel's playing through rib injury, three straight stinkers. Aaron Jones playing through rib injury, three straight stinkers. I mean, that's an injury that we, you know, Devo Samuel playing through an oblique injury. You know,

we're starting to see a little bit of maybe why these guys are not performing up to the level that they're capable. Yeah. I thought, um, like what Jamie said, we really need to emphasize this week, especially if your trade deadlines this week, especially if you're maybe a game out of the playoffs this week, you're going to have to throw value out a little bit. If you've got to get a win, go get a win and figure the rest of the season out. Yeah.

Um, or you might, if you're eight and one or eight and three or whatever your record might be, if you, if you're eight and one or eight and three or whatever your record might be, if you, if you're in the playoffs or you've got the top two seed locked up, might be okay to take a loss this week, trade for some guys on by and be better in the playoffs from Jason half PPR two quarterback, three receiver league, give up Aaron Rogers and DK Metcalf get Brian Robinson Jr. Yeah. Yeah. Give up Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf get Brian Robinson, Jr Yeah, yeah, I really have DK rest of season

Yeah, I don't like that. Yeah. I don't like it. That's nice from JD. I traded Jayden Reed DK Metcalf Isaiah Pacheco and Tyrone Tracy That's a lot. Yeah, Reed Metcalfe, Pacheco and Tracy for Achan, Mooney and Jennings. Hey. I don't know. I don't think you got enough in return.

Who was the running back you traded away? Pacheco. And Tracy. Let's look at it like this. Let's look at it two separate trades. Pacheco and Tracy for Devon Achan. A plus, like you got extra credit. We're gonna pass you in two classes

because that trade's so good. Okay. Okay, and then- I agree. Jayden Reed and DK Metcalf for Darno Mooney and Joann Jennings. Yeah, maybe it's not that bad. They're the same thing.

You like that trade? It's not just mine. Oh, it's not that bad. The same thing. That's you like that trade? It's no, just fine. Oh, it's just, oh, okay. Sorry. I thought you meant it's the same thing as the as the H and trade. The difference between the running backs is much bigger than the difference between the wide receiver. Yeah.

Yeah. You would rather have Jennings than the other two guys. I think Jennings and DK are probably pretty close. And I think Reed and Mooney are pretty close. This one is from hipsterdufus21. Sounds like someone I'd be friends with. 10 team PPR- Sounds like you. I'm not a hipster at all though. The other part. Just a doofus.

Yeah, the other part. 10 team PPR league, give up Tillman and Josh Allen. Get Kyler Murray and Mike Evans and he also has Justin Robert so yep like it I like it good dude good good deal good deal dude yeah you gotta really feel confident that Kyle is gonna be close to Josh out but he also has Herbert I don't know that you have to I mean you're getting a huge upgrade aren't you from Tillman to Evans? I provided that Evans is okay. Yeah. He's okay. I've Dill traded flowers for Swift. He badly needed a running back. That's a C. It's fine. Yeah. Update. So that's. I like flowers better if it's PPR.

From Ben, JSN and Devante Smith for T Higgins. That feels like an overpay for T. You just gotta wonder with T Higgins, like if they're out of playoff contention, does he shut it down? Again. Oh, they're making the playoffs. I hope so. I really do. Oh, that would be fun. I mean, would you rather see them in the playoffs than the

Texans at this point? Well, or the Colts? No, the budget. No, I mean, listen, I think it's gonna be fun to watch any of those teams play in the playoffs. I'm not saying we have to have a ranking team that like, this is where you get rid of divisions, like, get rid of the bangles every week than almost every team at this point. Okay.

Uh, and the Texans are the least fun to watch. I'll give you that. So the bangles are a lot of fun, but I also think like it's worth saying that they've absolutely earned this. Like they for sure. Yes. Like they, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs at all. Okay. I think if they were on the table, finished 10 and seven,

yeah, they were terrible at the beginning of the year. Heath's right. But if they run the table, Heath, and they go 10 and seven and they squeeze into a wild card spot, then they've earned that too. They've blew close games. They blew the Chiefs game. They lost to the Patriots. When the games you should win. Yeah, I agree. They deserve it. But they're obviously exciting. I don't think anybody wants to play them in the playoffs. You know, everybody would want to play their defense in the playoffs. Nobody would want to play their offense in the playoffs.

If you were whoever the chiefs, the bills, whatever, would you rather play the Broncos or the Bengals in the playoffs? I mean, everybody's gonna say the Broncos. I don't know about that. Broncos defense is good. Yeah, whatever. I mean, like you're 100% right, but you'd rather play the you'd rather play the. I want to play in the league quarterback ever. Yeah. All right. From Brigade Gellert or something.

I traded Jaden Daniels and Brian. What? Say it again. No, the name. It's not it's not bad. No, it's not a potty name. You have a look on your face. I don't bad. Say it again. No, it's not a potty name. You have a look on your face. I don't know.

I think I think it's Brigade alert. No, it's not. No, no. G-E-L-L-E-R-T. OK, I traded. I know Jamie has that up to no good look. Traded Jane Daniels and Brian Robinson Jr. for Jameer Gibbs. I'm good with it.

If your quarterback's okay, then it's an upgrade, yeah. Well, the big winner today is Heath for just crushing it on Fantasy Feud. I mean, one of the better performances that we've seen this year. This wind goes out to Dave in the sun. Props to the sun. Thanks for shining down on us. We will talk to you on tomorrow's episode with Starter SIT for the AFC Home Game.

See you later everybody. Thanks for watching.