Fantasy Football Today - Trends From 2022 & Super Bowl Fantasy Takeaways! (02/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 13, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes in 2022 (0:54)? Is Isiah Pacheco a legit Fantasy starter (2:45)? What about Kadarius Toney (6:35)? Which Eagles wide receiver are we drafting first (10:10)? ... We review some stats that could have helped us with our Super Bowl picks (15:25) before going through the news and notes (20:30). We give our final thoughts on the James Bradberry penalty and much more ... We evaluate some key trends from 2022 and wonder if they will hold up in 2023. Quarterback play was much worse (30:29), so can we actually make the case to draft an elite QB with the first overall pick? Meanwhile, rookie running backs had a great season (41:30) but WRs drafted in Rounds 3-5 were terribly disappointing (44:30) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's a no-win game. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, welcome to the show. Welcome to the show, everybody. What's up? It is Super Bowl Monday, and the 2022 season is officially in the books. And we're going to look back, and we're going to reflect on some fantasy trends. A down year for quarterbacks, a really good year for rookie running backs, and some other things that we noticed. Of course, we'll talk a little bit more about the Super Bowl, because we didn't really talk fantasy last night, just a little bit on Isaiah Pacheco.

But we will give our fantasy takeaways from Super Bowl 57, a three-point win for the Kansas City Chiefs. All right, welcome everybody. Send us your emails at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. That is fantasyfootball at cbsi, the letter i, dot com. We also have a mock draft coming up later today that we'll be able to talk about later in the week. Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, here we go. All right. So let's start with some fantasy questions. I'm giving you 90 seconds per question. Patrick Mahomes or Jalen Hurts next year, and why are you going to say Mahomes? Heath, you can start. Patrick Mahomes in leagues where passing touchdowns are worth six points. Jalen Hurts in leagues where passing touchdowns are worth four points.

I think those are the number one quarterbacks in those two formats. There's nobody better than either of them. That's a lot of hot takes there, I think. Not Josh Allen, huh? No. Jamie, you agree? How do you see Mahomes versus Hurts?

I agree. I agree. I think Mahomes is going to throw for more touchdowns and probably account for more total touchdowns. So there's also the risk of what these running quarterbacks are, as we saw with Jalen Hurts missing two games. And Dave, what do you think? I love that we're just completely

writing off Josh Allen as if he did absolutely nothing this year. Average.2 fewer fantasy points per game than Patrick Mahomes in 2022. And averaged almost a full point more than Jalen Hurts. Sounds to me like I'm going to get Josh Allen at a bargain this coming year. You think he'll end up being QB3? I've got him ranked QB one.

So I'm, I'm fine taking him after you guys take my homes and hurts. I'm not saying my homes and hurts are going to be bad or anything like that, but I think we've got ourselves a, a top three and your goal as a drafter should be trying to get the last of that three. Well,

it's good that my home, that hurts went out with a bang in 2022 with that game, technically 2023. I wonder if people would feel the same way if he had just kind of another ho-hum game like he did in the first two. But he was amazing. Scored over 40 fantasy points in the Super Bowl. All right. Question number two. Jamie, you can go first.

Isaiah Pacheco, emerging fantasy starter or fooled you like we've seen in the past with Chiefs running backs? As we sit here today, I would say emerging fantasy starter. By the time we get through the NFL draft and free agency, it's probably going to be someone

who could be a little overvalued. But if they come back with a similar type of group where it's Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, and somebody else of the aging veteran type that might just be a pass catcher like a Jarrett McKinnon, then I think Isaiah Pacheco is in a great spot. Because you see what he's able to do as a rusher as he's sort of gotten through the two or three playoff games for sure. And then what they did with him in the AFC Championship game as a receiver where I think that's where his biggest growth will come from. So a lot to like about him, but I don't think you should overvalue him because of the offense that he plays in. Both.

What? He is an emerging fantasy starter. I think he'll start week one for the Chiefs, and I think he'll probably have a stretch of a month or two next year where he's a top 20 running back, maybe even a little bit better. And I think at some point next year, we're going to get the Fuju, and there will be somebody else. Is there anybody here who thinks that the Chiefs are going to spend anything more than a day three pick on a running back?

I think if you look at what the history has been for them, Damian Williams off the scrap heap and Isaiah Pacheco with a seventh round pick, why would they go a different route after what they failed to do when they drafted Clyde Edwards-Hilaire? Right. That's what you have to say is that Edwards-Hilaire was something different that they did. I don't even remember. I think we said at the time it was the first time a running back

was drafted in round one from Andy Reid. And that was part of the reason we were so excited about Clyde Edwards-Z that are in the market. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of these 26 year old, 27 year old backs go really cheap and just choose one of them chooses to go to the chiefs. Right. They've also tried that route too, though, because you think about Ronald Jones and trying to make him a reclamation project,

Le'Veon Bell. Yeah. And right there. I mean, let's not forget. Gordon was on the team this year. I was going to say, Melvin Gordon's got a Superbowl ring.

He was on the practice. You know, so yeah, David Montgomery's got the naggy connection. Like if he's the guy that only gets 2 million this off season, then yeah, I think if it's, if it's somebody of the younger group,

you know, not necessarily, you know, pushing 30 as opposed to, you know, somebody in that 26, 27 range, then you can be a little bit more excited about that guy.

And maybe a little bit, you know, concerned about Pacheco. But, I mean, the trust that they started to show in this kid as the season progressed, certainly the last two playoff games, it kind of speaks to, I think, where they're going to feel about him coming into next year. It's just the exact opposite of what the Eagles showed us with Miles Sanders. Yeah, very strange.

And you're also, guys, forgetting about LaShawn McCoy, 31 years old, went over to the Chiefs. He did. And Pacheco, by the way, he really became the starter in Week 10. From Weeks 10 through 18, he was the number 18 running back in PPR, but number 26 per game.

He did that averaging 5 yards per carry. 126 carries, which was 13th most among running backs in that stretch. This is, again, weeks 10 through 18. He did score double-digit PPR fantasy points in seven of the nine games, so he was solid, but he just never had a big week. He never scored more than 16.2 PPR fantasy points, had just 10 catches in the nine games.

Our next question. Go ahead. We answered this. I don't think Heath was around to answer it. Heath, what round are you taking Isaiah Pacheco in in today's draft? Five? That's what you guys said, too. That's exactly what we said.

Yeah. All right. Next question. Kadarius Tony, emerging fantasy starter or fool you? Heath, you know how this one's going to go. You go first, Heath. Yes. Come on. you know how this one's going to go you go first Heath yes come on you have straddled the fence on every answer

no I'm not straddling the fence at all I'm just telling you the way that it is what do you play? 11 offensive snaps? I think it was I have it right here. I think he played less than Sky Moore. He played eight snaps, including penalties. Yeah, I don't know.

I'm not going to draft him in the fifth round. No. Okay. I would expect that Juju comes back, Juju's better than him, or somebody takes that role. Maybe it's Keenan Allen. What's your read on it, Jamie?

This is a guy they acquired midseason, so he didn't have the offseason to get into the game plan and all that. We see the talent. So, again, Canarius Tony, emerging fantasy starter or fooled you? Same thing like Pacheco. Once we get past the NFL draft, we're going to know what this team looks like from a receiver perspective because of all the the moving parts um Hardman a free agent Juju

a free agent you know do they really trust the the group that they have of MVS Sky Moore and and Kadarius Tony with an aging Travis Kelsey you know so they they've they've clearly tried to invest in this position a little bit you know from the draft through the start of the season with the trade to get cadareous tony so getting some young talent that's clearly explosive if they get the opportunity to grasp the playbook and understand everything that that that they want this team to expect from them but uh i i think they're still missing an alpha you know whether they thought juju was going to be that guy to replace tyree kill i know what my home said that it was going to be a group effort, but I think that kind of spoke to

the group that they had, you know, so he's mentioned, you know, Kenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, you know, do they dip their toe into the pool that we saw last year of trying to get one of these guys on a expiring rookie contract that a team doesn't want to pay, you know, whether it's a T Higgins, which probably seems like a stretch or a Michael Pittman or something of that caliber. Anybody that has the potential to take the next step being paired with Mahomes and Andy Reed, you're going to be excited about as you should, you know, so if it's, if it's Tony in the potential lead role, then yes, you should be excited about it. But you obviously have to deal with a little bit of trepidation because of what we saw during the season

that he didn't get a bigger opportunity, and then clearly the injury track record that still is going to be on everybody's mind. Give me a round, Dave, for Tony today when you're drafting. Eight. Round eight is when I'm looking to get Kadarius Tony. There's not a lot of risk involved if he busts. Should be able to contribute a couple of times, at least during the first two-thirds of the fantasy season,

if he can stay healthy that long. And there's upside for him to be unbelievable if he can manage to keep his hamstrings healthy for 17 Sundays in a row. The other thought that I had in my head was, is there an idea of drafting, doing the old friendship strategy with Tony and Sky Moore? Assuming that Juju does move on, Hardman doesn't come back, and the top three receivers for Kansas City are MVS, Moore, Tony, and you can just invest in two of the three and hope that one of them pops. Maybe that's a plan. All right, last question here. A.J. Brown or Devontae Smith? Who you drafting first?

Arbitrary point in the season, it was the game in which Dallas Goddard got hurt, but he still played almost all that game. But since Week 10, it's just been so even. 105 targets for Devontae Smith. This is Week 10 through the Super Bowl. 105 targets for Smith, 98 for Brown.

Smith had 12 more catches, but they had within 30 yards of each other. They both had six touchdown catches. So very, very even since Week 10. Who are you drafting first, Heath, Devontae Smith or A.J. Brown? And I don't think you can say both. No, I have to draft one of them first. I'll draft A.J. Brown first. It's very, very close in full PPR

there's a little bigger gap in in non-PPR in half but I still think there's a more likely case that AJ Brown has that wide receiver one overall season than Devante Smith Jamie I would draft Brown first also but prior to the Super Bowl Smith had actually outscored Brown by 20 PPR points over that same stretch. So still close, obviously, when you go on a point-per-game basis. I think the thing that you've got to take into account also is two of those games were with Gardner and Minshew. So how much of that factored into one receiver doing better than the other? I think Brown actually took good games, though,

in those games with Minshew. But I agree with Heath. I think Brown's ceiling is still a little bit higher when things are right. There's more touchdown potential, it feels like. But Devontae Smith, you know, like Dave mentioned with the quarterbacks, you're going to get Smith at a bargain, and you might get the better

of the two Eagles receivers. So while Brown is probably going to go somewhere in that 2-3 swing, you know, end around two, beginning around three, I think Smith will go probably closer to the middle to the end around three, depending on how quickly receivers come off the board. And again, you might get the better of the two players. So they're both fantastic. They're both superstars. They both have, you know, shown great things with Jalen Hurts in this offense, Smith year two, obviously Brown just, you know, joining the team. So it's, uh, it's, it's fun to see how these guys are going to develop one more time. Uh, but Smith entering year three might be, you know, on the verge of becoming that next superstar.

Uh, yeah, you know, the Minshew thing is a good point because both of them had two great games with Gardner Minshew, but Smith was a lot better. Smith had, uh, 31.3 points against Dallas and 20.5 against the Saints. So if he actually took those games out, the fantasy points per game would probably be just about even. As of now, the fantasy points per game, including the Super Bowl, since Week 10, Devontae Smith averaged 1.2 more per game in PPR. A lot of that is the catches because he had 12 more.

Dave, real quick, Smith or Brown. I'll I'll draft Brown ahead of Smith, but I, you know, it's what Jamie said. It's the better bargain with Devante Smith. And you might be able to get him say the 12th receiver off the board versus Brown. This is a small sample size, but it's a significant sample size. The playoffs. They have the exact same target share. 26.8%.

Smith had a much better catch rate, 68% to Brown's 59%. Yards per catch favored Smith. Yards per target favored Smith. Yards per route run favored Smith. ADOT favored A.J. Brown by a couple yards. Explosive play rate, that favored Smith too. Red zone targets. Three for Smith, none for AJ Brown. I think the playoff numbers are so hard to use though, because they barely

did anything in the, in the second half of both those games, the first two. Right. He was still involved in the first half. I'm just, the overarching point is simply there isn't that big of a gap between the two of them. And Jamie made the point for me me whichever one you can get second is probably the one that you'll be happier with but the the difference though is if you if you're not going to be able to sort of play it that way based on where they're going to go you know so it's almost like you have to know your draft spot

and kind of see how the adp lies and know your league a little bit, because one is going to go probably in the same round. Like I can see a very realistic scenario where the ADP for Brown is like 25, 26 and the ADP for Smith is like 34, 34, 35, you know?

So you're looking at beginning of one round end of the other. Yeah. Right. You can't, you can't say whoever I get later because you have to just, you have to choose unless, unless AJ Brown is like end of round two and Smith is beginning of round three, and then you can say, okay, I'm not going to take Brown here

because I'm going to take Smith five picks later or something. But there could just be a possibility that you just have to choose. Kind of like a Godwin Evans thing in years past. All right. We have no more football to talk about, but we do have plenty of other sports going on. You can check them all out on the CBS Sports app. And if you want to do some gambling in the offseason, please check out Sports. But like DFS, you've got computer simulations. You've got experts. It's very transparent. You can see who's doing well with the expert picks. So check it out. Sportsline.com.

You want to give it a shot for 99 cents. Use the promo code TACKLE when you sign up. Dave, did you want to do your Super Bowl stat check or are we skipping that? We can do it. That can make it quick. Okay, so Dave has a couple of stats. What was the premise here? We wanted to see if things we talked about pregame held up. Yeah, things. What could we have talked about or spent more time talking about

that would have been proven correct from the Super Bowl? Okay. And here's the first one, and this one I think will resonate. Maybe we can learn from this, And we have learned from this. From week 17 to the conference championships of the last four games for Philadelphia in earnest. Yeah, I think it's four. Eagles defense, 5.6 yards per carry. That's fourth worst. 2.2 yards before contact.

That's fifth worst. 12 missed tackles, eighth most. 25 runs of five-plus yards allowed, ninth most. Nine runs of 10-plus yards allowed, seventh most. And then on edge runs, they actually were pretty good there leading up. But in the game, they were also good. So forget about the edge runs. Just overall rushing. Philadelphia's run defense wasn't good going into the playoffs and then in the playoffs.

They got beat up a little bit. Even the 49ers, without Brock Purdy on the field most of the game, got over 5.6 yards per carry from their running backs. In the Super Bowl, that's number one. Number two, in the Super Bowl, Mahomes was 15 of 18 for 125 yards on throws between the numbers on the field. So these are inside the numbers, middle of the field throws. And on the season, Philadelphia wasn't that bad against those type of throws, but two games specifically against the Packers and against the Cowboys, they were terrible.

And they beat Green Bay, but they lost to Dallas in that game. And that was a Minshew game. But Dak had a monster game. And I wonder if those are two little things that we missed there, just how Green Bay and Dallas' quarterbacks had success against Philadelphia's defense, and did Mahomes take advantage in the same way, knowing that there would be opportunities there?

I just wonder if that was part of it. I was just reading Chad Haney was talking about how the Chiefs actually stole the last two touchdowns came on the same play. And it was actually a play that Jacksonville had run earlier with Jamal Agnew.

Jacksonville had noticed that Philadelphia, whenever a team shows something like a jet sweep in the red zone, they way overplay it. So they said, Agni like that, and he stopped and went back. And the Chiefs did it twice and worked both times. No, the Tony play, they completely overplayed it.

You can see Darius Slate pointing in the middle of the field, and it just left Tony wide open. They both ran a whip route or a pivot route, whatever you want to call it, where they get wide open. More of ran a whip route or a pivot route, whatever you want to call it, where they get wide open. More of the exact same play. But that's genius stuff. That's what these coaches do. They're looking for those two or three specific

plays that they can take advantage of in certain situations because another team did it before. When we come back, we'll update you on Derek Carr and Aaron Rogers and some coaching news on Fantasy Football today. Metro Lynx and Cross Lynx are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress.

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It's definitely not that. Don't overthink how you hydrate. Life's full of choices. Smart water is a simple one. Welcome back, everybody. So if we want to put a bow on this, James Bradbury said it was holding. He was called for the hold. Here's what the referee called Carl Cheffers said. He said, The receiver went to the inside,

and he was attempting to release to the outside. The defender grabbed the jersey with his right hand and restricted him from releasing to the outside. So therefore, we call defensive holding, end quote. And, you know, people are him from releasing to the outside. So therefore we call defensive holding end quote. And, uh, you know, people are really pissed off at the rep.

Like look at right now, the reps need to be held accountable. People say, that's what we'll get comment in our chat right now. The NFL is rigged this and that. I don't know that I, last night, Jamie,

you and I were kind of saying wasn't the right call, but here I kind of changed my mind after what Bradbury said. I don't know. Did you change your mind on it? No, I think it's the right call. It's just tough to call it in that spot. That's the problem. It's just looking at the overall way the game is

going, game flow. They haven't really been calling ticky-tack plays like that. I mean, Juju got held earlier in the game. I don't know if it was by Bradbury, where he basically got spun around and they didn't call it. And so it's... You know, you want to see, and I think if I'm not mistaken,

wasn't there a ticky-tack Logan Wilson penalty last year's game against the Rams? You know, at the end of the game, you don't want to see the refs really interject themselves at that point, unless it's something so egregious. So yes, it's a holding call.

You call holding on the offensive line, every play of the game, if you want to, you know what I mean? It's just that that's the nature of how a lot of holding calls go. So yes, obviously Bradbury, as he said,

he thought he can get away with it. You know, he thought it wasn't going to be called, however he phrased it, you know? So yes, absolutely. It's,

it's by definition of the rules, it's a holding call. If you're a Chiefs fan, you're going to love it. If you're an Eagles fan, you're going to be called however he phrased it. So yes, absolutely. By definition of the rules, it's a holding call. If you're a Chiefs fan, you're going to love it. If you're an Eagles fan, you're going to hate it. And if you're just looking at the way that the game was being played, the last thing you wanted to do was see the referees sort of have a stake in this game that it's the talking point coming out of it when that game was just so beautifully played between those two teams.

Okay. And I think we can let everyone else just debate it. It's unfortunate that it's a big storyline, but I do think the fact that Bradbury came out and said it was holding might help people settle the debate. The Chiefs backup quarterback, Chad Henney, retired. Yeah, sorry. The debate?

Well, the debate is, you know, what Jamie said is the debate is do you call it at that moment and you think there should you think there should be different rules like i don't minute warning i don't but a lot of people do and it's a really difficult question because i think i felt exactly the same way jamie does you know the offensive holding thing right you could call it tom brady said that a couple weeks ago. You could call it basically every single play. So when do you call it? And I think if you're going to call the defensive hold in that situation,

it has to be a play. It has to be a hold that really impacted the play. And I still haven't seen an angle definitively to know if it really did impact the play. Dave, you said you looked at the all 22 and you think it did not. Right? No. No, it did not. But Bradbury didn't know it.

He didn't know that Mahomes was getting pressured and that the Eagles were getting to him and Mahomes was throwing the ball away. Can you buy that argument, Heath? That if Bradbury's hold, which because it was a hold. No, because the ref's not watching the and try and then waiting to see the play and then deciding advantage. It's not soccer where it's like play on no advantage.

The refs watching a specific part of the field for specific things. And if he sees that thing happen, he's supposed to throw a flag. Yeah. But I guess the argument, the argument would just be, you could throw that flag on so many plays if you're going to throw it

it should be a penalty that actually impacted the play I don't know how you could officiate like that alright would you feel the same way though if it was reversed if it was Eagles vs Chiefs going the other way I don't know

I might be really upset about it. I can't imagine, though, if the corner who had done it had said, yes, I grabbed him and held him, that I would have still thought that it was a bad call. But I don't know. Well, he didn't need to say it. If you go back and watch it, and everybody who was watching the game saw him hold,

it's like getting a speeding ticket for going nine miles over the posted speed limit versus going 25 miles over the speed limit. If it was an egregious hold, nobody would care. I don't want to use ticky-tack as

a term, but it was a hold. He was held. It was in a very obvious place. Like there's an official right there looking right at him. Two of them. And Juju breaks out. I don't know. It's okay.

It is. Let the people. I think again, he admitted it. The referee's doing his job. It's just, I think, again, it's he admitted it. The referee is doing his job. Yes. It's just a matter of, again, like just being put in that situation. Like if you're the ref, like, you know, you reach for the flag and you're like, is it catchable pass?

Time again, you know, they're not supposed to take in the account, the circumstances. You know, they're supposed to be unbiased and, you know, see the calls that unfold. But they're humans. And this is why people want, you know, robots to be umpires and referees and all those things because they want to take those things out of it. Well, I can tell you this, that flag came out once the ball was like in the air in that direction. And I almost wonder if my homes had thrown it away to the other side of the field.

I wonder if that flag wouldn't have been thrown. But the fact that the pass went in that direction, and there was a clear hold, that's why the ref threw the flag. And that is the ref doing his job. I think people should lay off the refs. Honestly. Just give it up.

In this instance, yes. In this instance. Even the... I don't know. I don't want to get too off track. But even the whole play in the Bengals. Can you believe the Eagles didn't have one sack? That was amazing. It was unbelievable.

All right, all right. Let's move on. Patrick Wilhelms had the second lowest percentage of deep balls in a game this season. 3.7% of his passes were 20 or more yards downfield. That's the second lowest. The lowest was 0% a few weeks ago against the Jaguars when he was so hurt. So unbelievable. He just barely threw the ball downfield in this game

and still won Super Bowl MVP and had a terrific game. Also, I think you're seeing a trend. This year, it was interesting. A lot of the really good fantasy quarterbacks were pretty low in air yards per pass attempt. Trevor Lawrence, Mahomes, Goff was good. Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, they were all 22nd to 27th in air yards per pass attempt. Pass Lawrence, Mahomes, Goff was good. Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, they were all 22nd to 27th

in air yards per pass attempt. Pass attempt, excuse me. Last year, Mahomes was the only good fantasy quarterback who was lower than 18th in air yards per pass attempt. So that was interesting. It's a John Gruden wet dream. Because he always

preached completions, completions. Don't worry about going downfield like crazy. And that's what a lot of teams are doing, partially because of how defenses are playing against them. There's a lot of cover two type defenses that are trying to dare offenses to run the football. And quarterbacks are doing some handoffs,

but they're also throwing short. And they're just completing those short passes. Sorry about the visual, Buckerton. Yeah, really, that was so unnecessary. Andy Reid is returning. The Colts are looking to hire Philadelphia offensive coordinator Shane Steichen as their head coach, and the

Texans are expected to hire 49ers passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik as their offensive coordinator. So he will join D'Amico Ryans there. So, Jamie, you got potential. It looks like Shane Steichen going to the Colts, Bobby Slowik going to the Texans.

Do you see big fantasy impacts here? I mean, I think with both those teams, you got to wait to see what the quarterback looks like, because that's the that's the biggest part of it. Um, if they don't have the right person in place, clearly the Texans have the opportunity to draft that guy. Hopefully the Colts do as well. Um, so, you know, hitting the reset button on, on those potential positions will kind of determine what these teams look like. But I think for both those situations, you got to feel good about the running backs there because both guys are coming from situations where the running games were pretty strong.

Clearly, the San Francisco run game has been fantastic, and so hopefully that's good for Damian Pierce. And then Don Taylor is going to be great probably no matter who the play caller is, but the fact that it's a Philadelphia guy and they have certainly shown the ability mostly last year, more so than this year, but to feature their run game,

both those guys should be in good spots. Derek Carr will not waive his no trade clause, so he could be released anytime now, and we could have Derek Carr news pretty soon. I hope for his sake he still goes to the Saints and just gives the Raiders a big middle finger.

I just didn't want to give you guys anything back in return. It seems like he's not doing anything to help the Raiders right now, so can't blame him. Falcons owner Arthur Blank said he's very excited about Desmond Ritter, and Ritter did not throw an interception in four games. That's cool. Did he throw any touchdowns? He threw two in week 18 against the Bucs, who were half-playing.

So, yeah. Actually, I think he probably in week 18 against the Bucs, who were half playing. So, yeah. Actually, I think he probably did decently against the starters. The Jets inquired about the availability of Aaron Rodgers. And let's talk about some fantasy trends, finally get to that. You saw the Jets just hired another coach that's linked to some other quarterbacks, right? No, who did they hire? They hired Todd Downing as their passing game coordinator. So, now they could be linked to Ryan T tannehill uh they could be linked to derrick carr they could be linked to

jimmy garoppolo and they could be linked to aaron rogers so all the the main veterans that are going to be available they have some tie to okay all right so fantasy trends from the 2022 season some things that surprised us maybe is that do you guys want me to throw these out there or did you have your own? How are we doing this? I do not have my own. I don't have it. Okay. Great. That's fine. Quarterback got weaker. I think that's pretty obvious. In 2021, if you look at the amount of quarterbacks that average 20 fantasy points per game and 6 points per passing touchdown leagues, we went from 14 to 12 in 2021 to 2022.

Not a huge drop, but if you make that 22 points per game, 12 quarterbacks averaged 22 points per game in 2021. Five quarterbacks did that in 2022. So Heath, I mean, that to me was the biggest thing that stood out. Brady, Wilson, Stafford, the older guys were terrible. Rodgers was terrible. Quarterback changed quite a bit in 2022. Yeah, scoring was down pretty considerably. I think Chris was talking about it last week. The under hit 56% of games this year.

And so, if quarterback fantasy scoring is going to go with that, the question is going into this year, do we get bounce backs from Justin Herbert, from Lamar Jackson, from Kyler Murray? We've got a lot of quarterbacks who have shown the ability to score 25 fantasy points per game. It's just, we had a lot of them fall off. We don't think obviously Brady's not coming back and I don't think that Rodgers is

probably doing it again, but there's still guys who didn't do it last year who have the potential to do it this year. Yeah. How much are you going to let the 2022 quarterback production influence your 2023 drafting of quarterbacks, Dave?

Oh, sorry. Go ahead, Heath. No, I think Dave should answer because it's a frustrating question for me. I'm going to explain that. It's because I think we should probably draft him in round three, but doing that in our

mocks, you just can't hardly do it if you want to draft a team that's good because somebody's going to draft Dak Prescott in round 13. I'm a little confused on what you're saying. I think we need to draft quarterbacks a little bit earlier. I'm not sure I'm actually going to do it in our mocks because of the way they work. Okay. All right, Dave, what's your take on this? They're the guys that you can expect to get north of 20. Let's be conservative. 23 fantasy points per game. And we've already talked about three of them. I think

Burrow belongs in that group too. Lamar, Fields, they've got the upside. Herbert has the upside. Not all in the same tier, but guys that are going to have that little bit of extra value and you're hoping that they can get not just 23 points per game, but closer to 30 like Mahomes had, like Josh Allen had, like Jalen Hurts had. And then you've got the rest of the quarterbacks, and I think it's almost like the same philosophy you have with tight ends.

If you want to prioritize the position, you will take one at a value that you hope is at least fair. You don't want to reach for one. You never want to reach in a fantasy draft. But if you miss on those, you don't panic. You just wait till the end of your draft and you pick up two guys and you hope that one of them will get you at least 20 points a week, but maybe get a little lucky and Dak ends up having a much better year

than he had this year. And he jumps to that 23-point range. So our goal this offseason will be not only to just stick with the quarterbacks that we think have that 23-point upside, but to identify those other quarterbacks that have that screaming upside to get you closer, not to 23, but to 28. That's going to be something that we've got to work on and make the case for in the next several months.

And Jamie, but there's still guys who didn't average 22 fantasy points per game. Some of them didn't even come close. That will probably be very hopeful for them. Fields was 21.9, technically. But Fields, Tua, Herbert had a bad year, right? Kyler, 20 points per game. Trevor Lawrence, right around 20.

And then maybe Russell Wilson, maybe Aaron Rogers make, just make the case for not overreacting to 2022 and saying, you know what? Quarterback's going to be just fine and we should draft like we had been. I mean, for a good, a few of those guys that you named, that's usually the place where I'll live is, you, is waiting to see how far Herbert falls, Justin Herbert, hoping Fields will slip a little bit. Hopefully Lamar Jackson slips a little bit.

Those type of guys, I think if you're inclined to say, I want to get a quarterback that has the chance to be in that top-tier group, you let the first-tier go of really, and I think Dave's right, it's top four because I do think Bur know, sort of ascend a little bit more. So you let somebody else take those top four and then, okay, you know, what kind of game of chicken are you playing with the other eight or seven managers in your league, you know, to try and see when the guy that you potentially could be targeting. Like for me, I'm going to target Trevor Lawrence a lot, you know, or Dustin Herbert a lot,

just depending on how, again, the draft board goes. Because I think you could see the path for those two guys in particular. Herbert's already done it. And what Lawrence showed, you know, in the second half of the season, what they're capable of doing. You know, so I think there's absolute potential for those guys to be, you know, to make that top tier a little bit more robust. It's just a matter of, again, you know, how much better, let's say, will the top four guys be than the rest of the field.

If you're banking on that next group to catch up, then that's where you should be drafting. Okay, would you guys rather take, let's say, Justin Herbert in round five, or maybe take two quarterbacks in the Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins range or something like that late. Heath, what would you do? I would like to get one of the guys that I think could be in that 30-point range. So I think I'd go with the earlier. Okay. All right. Let's go to our next topic then.

How about the rookie running backs? Just real quick before you move on. Okay. All right. Let's go to our next topic then. How about the rookie running backs? Just real quick before you move on. I did the win percentage stuff for our site. The players that contributed to the most wins in that most fantasy championship. So it was about 120 players of the study that we use based on the sample size. So it's our commissioner league, which is our paid product. It's leagues that are eight players or more, eight fantasy managers or more.

Four of the top 12 players were those four quarterbacks. It was Mahomes and Hertz were one and two. They led to the most wins. Josh Allen was third and Joe Burrow was fourth. So four of the top 12 overall players. And for your argument, Adam, Travis Kelsey was the fifth overall player, contributed to the most wins. So you had those players. You were a very successful fantasy team doesn't again mean you won a championship but um certainly helped you get there or get to the playoffs and have a chance to maybe be the one seed um or one of the better teams having said

that if you were you know drafting with the first overall pick in a 12 team league and you weren't drafting with us and you were drafting in a league where you thought those top three quarterbacks were going to go in the first two rounds, would you take... I mean, I know you guys wouldn't, but would it be crazy to take one of those guys with 1-1? In a 1QB league, I think it's crazy. I think you're giving away value.

But Jamie just said they were the most winning players in fantasy. Which is rare. It's not usually quarterbacks that are the most winning player. I would not do it, but I don't think it's crazy. I agree. I agree with Heath. I wouldn't do it either. But you know, again, we deal with so many players, so many fantasy managers that I don't want to have my first round pick injured. I don't want to deal with the headaches of having to replace that player. And we kind of got a little bit lucky this season that a lot of the –

well, no, I guess we didn't. Jonathan Taylor got hurt. So the security factor of taking one of those quarterbacks – and it so much comes down to knowing your league because if you take Mahomes or Hertz or Allen first and you know that the domino effect is going to be six other quarterbacks going the first two rounds you're not missing out on a lot of the talent and the rest of the player pool but if you know you're the only person that's going to do that and then you're you're losing out on a great round

two pick a great round three pick because everybody else is now picking apart the running back and wide receiver pool then you're in a little bit different scenario wait a minute where did we all have justin herbert ranked last year top five top three where do we have lamar jackson ranked last year top five okay so those are two of the top five quarterbacks that we had last year that didn't hit expectations. And it totally comes down to these quarterbacks staying healthy. It comes down to everybody staying healthy. That's part of the whole reason why people are huge in fantasy.

I know Herbert played through it, but you can't. He was so beat up. That's part of it. It's not all of it for Justin Herbert. But the worst thing you could do, generally speaking, is draft players who get hurt and you can't use them in fantasy. And then the replacement value isn't anywhere close to what you had. The next worst thing you could do is reach for a player and that player gets hurt. And the replacement value of the player that you're replacing isn't anywhere close to what he could do.

So it's, it's the same thing for every position, but if you're in a league with 10 people or 12 people, the quarterback position is the easiest one to fill. You can't give that away by taking the quarterback. Now, even at the 12th pick in round one, but,

but Dave, but this past year, Alan hurts. pick in round one. But this past year, Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes were all 28 to 29 fantasy points. And Hurts was right up there with those guys before his injury. So you're talking about 29 points per game almost.

Quarterback five per game was Lamar Jackson at 22.3. Who you had for a little more than half a season. Right, but what I'm saying is there was a positional advantage that those guys had this year that we just

hadn't seen in the past. How did people do that took Christian McCaffrey or Travis Kelsey or Justin Jefferson? They had a positional advantage too, did they not? Yes, but what I'm saying is if you're going to buy what happened in 2022 and think that quarterback is much

shallower than it used to be, then taking those guys with a top six pick or whatever overall is totally justifiable because they're just so much better than the position. They're like three Kelseys practically. I mean, that's the argument. I mean, look, I wouldn't do it either,

but they stood out more relative to their peers than any year in recent history. You know, because quarterbacks suck this year. Those guys didn't. All right. All right. Let's go to our next topic here. I don't I want to know, Heath, if you think that this is something that we should take into next year, or if we have to treat everything with a case-by-case basis. But things worked out pretty well for

rookie running backs. I'm going to include Etienne in here. He wasn't a rookie, but he was a guy who had never played before who was behind a veteran in quotes. He's a rookie for the purposes of this show. Okay. So Brees Hall, it took him I think three games of being in a

timeshare to really take over. Ken Walker took him an injury, but he ended up being good. ETN took him to a trade, but he ended up being the guy. Tyler Algiers took a while. Damian Pierce took one week. By week two, he was the guy. That worked out really well. I think the Javante Williams thing scared people off from 2021.

He never overtook Melvin Gordon. But it was a great year for the rookie running backs in that regard. Maybe you want to go back to 2020, Heath. You look at CEH. He had a pretty solid role. But DeAndre Swift did not. Jonathan Taylor, Marlon Mack got hurt right away. Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins kind of took them a while.

So, I don't know. It was better for the rookie running backs this year than I think in the previous two years. And. Dobbins kind of took them a while. So I don't know. It was better for the rookie running backs this year than I think in the previous two years. And what do you make of that going into 2023? I don't think it tells us much about what the rookie running backs are going to do this year. I think you've kind of laid it out over the last three years. We've had a really wide range of performances. I think you have to look at these guys as having a ton of upside and potential, but there's also a lot of risk with them. And like we said, there's so many running backs who are going to be available in free agency.

I think you've probably got one rookie running back that I think is going to be a feature back as a rookie. And then you got a bunch of guys who are going to have a chance to play that part-time role. Okay. So everybody probably on the same page have a chance to play that part-time role. Okay, so everybody probably on the same page, this is a case-by-case basis? Of course. I think so, but the encouraging thing, I think, for a lot of the group here, minus CTN,

was there weren't a lot of expectations for them to be starters right away. Like, you know, Damian Pierce, once the training camp situation sort of settled itself, you saw that he had a path once he started to perform the way that he did but i don't think anybody expected tyler algier to take over the role um maybe without a quarter patterson injury um pacheco certainly was not the you know expected to be that guy you know brie saw was easy you know but, but maybe not easy, you know, not easy necessarily to take over that way that soon,

but this class feels like it has a little bit more talent coming into it, you know, so we'll see how things sort of shake out once we get past, you know,

the first couple days of the draft. I can't believe I forgot about Pacheco in there. I think I was looking at a list of all the drafted guys and I don't know,

I just didn't go down to round seven. Sorry about that. All right. This was something that really burned me, and this trend, I don't know if it's a trend. Maybe it's hopefully a one-year thing. But the more I think about it, it may have just been a product of the receiver position in general

just being bad. But the rounds three through five wide receivers, which had just been such a goldmine because fantasy managers go really running back heavy in the first two rounds typically. Rounds three through five wide receivers are just, they're not all great, but you get a lot of gems. They just really didn't perform this year.

We only had three top 15 wide receivers who were drafted in rounds 3 through 5 out of probably about 20 receivers. I'll do the math real quick, but I don't know. That was something, Dave, that really got me. I thought, you know, obviously, Pittman,

I'll give you the names. Evans, this is based on Fantasy Pros ADP. Evans, Keenan Allen, A.J. Brown, Pittman, Higgins, McLaurin, D.J. Moore, Deontay Johnson, Mike Williams, Jalen Waddle, Metcalf, Brandon Cooks, Cortland Sutton. How many was that?

You weren't counting? I'm counting the number of receivers that were top 15. Three. Three were. A.J. Brown, Jalen Waddle, and am I missing? D.K.

Yeah, he was 13th. Yeah, so I don't know. Was it just because wide receiver was worse this year? I don't know. They just weren't that good. How about the quarterbacks that they were catching passes from? Yeah. You mentioned two chargers.

We talked about Herbert. Bad year for him because he got hurt. The offense wasn't great either. The offensive line took on a lot of injuries. Pittman was in there. He had terrible quarterback play. McLaurin didn't have the best quarterback play. DJ Moore, I would

say that the reason why he didn't have the year that we thought he was going to have was because of quarterback play. Deontay Johnson, bad quarterback play. Who else did you name? Brandon Cooks, Cortland Sutton, Mike Evans. Cooks, Sutton, those guys qualify. Evans, is Godwin in this list?

No. Where did he finish in ADP? Or points per game? Points per game, I don't know, but he wasn't. I think he was like 15th, but he was past this group of round three. He was two picks later. So he was basically in that same group. Yeah. And the only

big reason why Godwin and Evans got their numbers was because Brady threw so much. It's not the only reason. Brady had some good throws too. Evans had a terrible game. That plays a huge factor you've got to consider. Evans finished his wide receiver 17, but it just was not a good year. For example, last year, or 2021, C.D. Lamb was wide receiver 19.

He scored 233 points. In 2022, T. Higgins was wide receiver 19. He scored 219 points. Just everything was down. The quarterback scoring was down. The wide receiver scoring was down. But, Jamie, when you look at this, there are going to be a lot of receivers that go off the board

in rounds three through five, and they're going to be enticing. Should we try to – should we consider the quarterbacks on their teams more than we've been? I think that's a fair assessment, sure. I mean, I think it should come into play almost every year. You know, we sort of get a little bit, you know, maybe overexcited about expected targets, you know, and what that role could be despite some quarterback concerns.

You know, I think, you know, Michael Pittman and DJ Moore are probably two good examples of that. You know, we thought there might be a quarterback upgrade coming for their respective teams with Matt Ryan and Baker Mayfield. And, you know, you saw some of the pitfalls that I think, you know, maybe had Matt Ryan played the entire season, Michael Pittman's numbers would have been better, but you know, who knows? And certainly if Sam Donald had played the entire season,

DJ Moore's numbers would have been better. But for the majority of, of those two guys, you know, and throw Corlin Sutton in there too, you know, with the thought of what Russell Wilson could be, but you know, you, you, you sort of, and I think he's sort of alluded to this a little bit with his lessons learned, you know but, um, you know, you, you, you sort of, and I think he's sort of alluded to this a little bit with his lessons learned, you know, continuity matters, you know, so that quarterback receiver relationship, that coach offensive coordinator, quarterback receiver relationship, you know, all those things, you know, from a trickle down effect is probably

something that you want to maybe lean a little bit more to. Now the counter to that would be Stefan Diggs first year in Buffalo was amazing. You know, Devante Adams still had a pretty damn good season with Derek Carr. Again, you could say continuity, but still switching teams. So there are different levels of probably to all of this. But I think, you know, overall, yes, quarterbacks just certainly matter when you're talking about the wide receiver. Can you look up the results of one of the drafts we did last month? And we could talk about the receivers that went in this range.

I'm curious who ends up there this year. You know, one of the Eagles guys might sneak at the beginning of round three, but yeah, we'll see. I'm just going to kill some time here. Dave, what was the best thing you ate yesterday?

The spinach dip that my wife made was pretty outstanding, but what really took the cake, my son brought home cake, uh, a Australian Wagyu steak and grilled that. And he shared a little bit of it with me and he, he nailed it. It was perfect.

Really a couple of amazing bites of steak. Thanks to my kid who picked up a nice steak over at the butcher shop near our house. He only got one. Yeah. He got it for him because I didn't know he was coming to the house for the game. And my wife bought wings and pizza.

Okay. Like that guy thinks he's going to mute the TV. I'm not giving him any stay. I'm not buying him any steak. He's what was the best thing you had yesterday? Yeah, it was either the jalapeno poppers or the wings. I put a little extra cayenne on the wings, and so they were a little bit spicier.

They were really, really good. I can't get it now. I'm sorry. Yeah, same. I was having the same problem. All right. Oh, well. We're doing a draft today today so we can revisit this. I bought the buffalo sauce for my wife to make her buffalo chicken dip, which was great. And I bought extra mild. Extra mild.

Extra mild. I can't do anything even remotely spicy. So I won't be at your party, Seath. But the dip was outstanding. No, you won't. All right. Jamie, your final thoughts on food from yesterday? Yeah, I had fun grilling.

I haven't grilled in a while, just from football season. So made some steaks, made some chicken, made some hot dogs. It was fun. Oh, yeah. Good stuff. Okay. Thanks, everybody. Have a wonderful day.

We will talk to you on Wednesday with our next show, Wednesday and Thursday this week. And that's it for Dave and Jamie and Heath and Thomas. I'm Adam.