Fantasy Football Today - TRUST or BUST? Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, A.J. Brown and More (05/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 11, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Looking at current draft values for players like Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, T.J. Hockenson and others, do we trust these guys or do we have bust concerns? First, let's talk about the 2023 rookie class and if we are overreacting given the reputation that this class is relatively weak (1:30). Then we've got your news and notes (6:55) and there are a lot of interesting items! Can Miles Sanders reach 50 catches? How will Dalton Kincaid be used? Is Saquon Barkley's dynasty value getting lower? ... Trust or Bust for Jonathan Taylor (17:25), Josh Jacobs (23:50), A.J. Brown (26:00) and Rhamondre Stevenson (34:50). For Taylor, will he set a new career high in catches? Is Brown going to lose targets? ... Continuing Trust or Bust for Isiah Pacheco (39:30), Aaron Jones (44:00), Najee Harris (47:10) and T.J. Hockenson (53:40). Perhaps we have more bust cases with these four players ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Today on the show, trust or bust. Jonathan Taylor was not even a top 10 running back on a per game basis last year, but he's back as a consensus top five or six top 10 overall pick on CBS sports.com. Keenan Allen, he's getting old.

They added a receiver in the first round. Trust or bust. TJ Hawkinson was tight end four last year on a per game basis. He might be tight end three in ADP. Trust or bust. We'll talk about those guys and some more. We've got some news items for you here as well. And your email is at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com.

What's up, Dave Richard? How we doing? I'm doing all right. Is your connection okay? Is it not okay? You kind of broke up on me. It might be mine. It might be Jamie's.

No, no. It seems like Adam's at Heath's house right now. I think I'm fine. Or mine. mine. It might be Jamie. No, no. It seems like Adam's at Heath's house right now. Or mine. Everything sounds fine on my end, but hopefully that will not be a problem. Okay. If it is, we'll get that taken care of.

What do you know? Technical issues. We'll adjust on the fly like NFL teams do. You let me know. Email of the day. I want to start with an email from Danny in Frisco, Texas. Been wondering this myself. Are we overreacting to the NFL draft me know. Email of the day. I want to start with an email from Danny in Frisco, Texas. Been wondering this myself. Are we overreacting to the NFL draft? All right.

Here's the question from Danny. It seemed that the whole industry had been saying for a while leading up to the draft that this class was not a strong class. And outside of the very few at the top, most of these guys did not have the talent of previous years and we needed to temper our expectations. But now the post-draft talk about the rookies makes it seem like the earlier conversations never happened. Charbonnet more talented than Walker. I don't know if someone said that. Now Walker's falling in the rankings.

Johnson, does he have a legitimate shot at supplanting Herbert and Foreman? Zay Flowers makes Lamar an elite option again. Is this an overreaction? Is it recency bias or legitimate things to consider? I was wondering if you could touch on this as it is confusing hearing mixed messages pre and post draft. All right, Adam, why don't we do this?

We'll answer the question. You reconnect because you're glitching in and out. So we'll answer that one for you. So, Dave, what do you think? Is it overreaction to some of these things that happened in the draft is, is Charbonnet more talented than Walker is, is that going to be something that impacts Walker? I know you're still high on, on Ken Walker. I'm higher on Walker than I am on Charbonnet. And I think that Walker's more talented than Charbonnet, but Charbonnet

is probably going to land some roles that Kenneth Walker just wasn't good at or wasn't used in last year. I think on draft night, and this might happen to us every year, I think that... No, no. I might be doing this by myself. ...call it back in the days after, and we kind of learned some things about what the head coaches and the GMs were thinking. They come out and they talk about it. And we kind of reset the expectations, at least for me anyway, with a bunch of the players in the weeks after the draft. We have time to do more research, and that's why it happens.

As far as going crazy and saying things like Johnson is a legitimate shot at supplanting Herbert and Foreman. I don't know. Did we ever say that? I think it's going to be a split in Chicago. That might have been. I think from the email, they're attributing the Charbonnet-Walker thing to you. They're attributing the Johnson thing, I would assume,

because I think he said this, that Johnson could be the lead back in Chicago, which is not far from reality. You know what I mean? We're talking about, you know, two guys that have been backups for a while. Herbert in Chicago, you know, Foreman's had to wait for an injury or a trade to get his chance to be the lead guy there. So, yeah, I think there's potential for Johnson to be the guy there for the Bears. But, I mean, look, I think you said it best.

You know, we've had time to digest. I think you said yesterday during the draft you've readjusted your take on Jameer Gibbs. Oh, yeah. You know, so there are things that happen on draft night, and then there are things that happen in the post-draft media sessions that the writers themselves learn, you know, from talking to people in the building, you know, when they get there, okay, why did you take this guy? And then you get some

answers from, you know, running back coach or receiver coach or position coach, whatever it may be that comes out because those things aren't necessarily public. And those guys give us more information, you know, from the things that they're reporting. So there's lots of things that happen. They're going to be things that happen after rookie mini camps and and and things of that nature you know i mean the the report we had on monday show about josh downs catching everything and being anthony richardson's favorite target you know i don't think that means he's better than michael pitman but it might mean that if you're going to draft a second culture receiver you might take downs over alec pierce you know so there are things like that that are going to come out. So there's an obvious reaction and potential overreaction to the NFL draft.

But I think, again, once we sort of let it all digest for a little bit, that's when I think, you know, this is why we do these drafts. You know, we did these mock drafts, you know, not the day after the NFL draft. We did it, you know, one the week after and now the second one two weeks after. So that's just part of the process for us. You know, a little peek behind the curtains for us is we used to have to do two magazines in the offseason. Now we're down to one.

And the first magazine we had to do everything literally the week after the NFL draft. Now imagine having to spew out all that information that we were trying to digest and how, in some cases, incorrect it was because of just the immediacy of having to produce that type of content hi guys you're back great though it was great though while you were gone because you were glitching dave glitched also so i thought i was doing it by myself again for a second great this is really great stuff all right well thank you for handling that uh fantasy baseball today is a glitch free podcast if you want to improve your fantasy baseball team.

Jamie, I hope you're listening to that. Jamie and I have the worst fantasy baseball team that's ever been assembled. Please check out Fantasy Baseball Today, hosted by Frank Stamfel. Chris Towers is on there. Scott White is on there. They got some prospect talk as well.

It's really the best of the best. It's an award-winning show, a recently award-winning show. So congratulations to Fantasy Baseball today. And yes, everything you get on Fantasy Football today, you get that on Fantasy Baseball today, except they talk about a different sport. News and notes.

Okay, I don't really like reading Dove Kleiman tweets, but I guess I'll do it. All signs point to Minnesota most likely moving on from Dalvin Cook, according to Diana Rossini from Dove Kleiman, who watches ESPN and tweets out what experts say, and then everyone likes and retweets his stuff, and it's really stupid. But I guess Diana Rossini said that, that the Vikings are most likely moving on from Dalvin Cook.

Okay, we'll react to that when it happens. Yeah, there's a lot there uh detroit rookie quarterback hendon hooker will have a red shirt season according to his head coach dan campbell don't expect any don't draft them uh lamar jackson in redraft lamar jackson not at voluntary off-season workouts right now that's interesting big deal is? It is. He should be there, right? Unless there's a reason for it. But you just signed your contract. It's not going to matter.

We're not going to be sitting here in August saying, well, I don't know if Lamar's going to be okay. He wasn't at that voluntary offseason workout. I just think it's interesting. You signed your contract. You got a new offensive system being installed, and you don't show up. I would. I'd you don't show up?

I would—I'd want him to show up. I'm a little opinionated today, aren't I? I'll knock it off. We can hear you, yes. Ralph Vacchiano of Fox Sports says, it does not sound like the Giants and Saquon Barkley are close to any long-term deal. Jamie, does that matter? In Dynasty, yeah. I mean, I think you've got to consider what your scenario is. If you're a team that's competing, then obviously you want to have

Saquon Barkley. If you're not competing, trade him for picks because this may go south quickly and 2023 may be his last great season. Houston, they already traded for Shaq Mason, an offensive guard. They just signed him to a three-year extension worth up to $36 million. Just some more reports coming out. Elena Getzenberg

of ESPN thinks that the Bills will use Dalton Kincaid more like a wide receiver this season. So do we. I have read so many good things about Dalton Kincaid. It's a first-round pick. Everyone's going to be writing good things about him. I have read so many good things about Dalton Kincaid. You know, I don't know, whatever. It's a first-round pick.

Everyone's going to be writing good things about him. But I also read that Josh Allen had a very low completion percentage in the middle of the field last year. So it just seems like this was a – people are viewing this as a major need pick, Dave, Dalton Kincaid to the Bills, and he'll be utilized as such. I think so. It makes sense if they're adding Kincaid to help bills and he'll be utilized as such. I think so. It makes sense. If they're adding Kincaid to help them improve in the middle of the field,

you think about how Isaiah McKenzie was used in the early portion of last year. He was a short area target who didn't come through all the time for Buffalo, had some bad drops, made some bad decisions with the ball in his hand, fumbled a little bit. I think Kincaid is,

is an improvement as far as changing what they do, a step in the right direction, if you will, when it comes to the middle of the field. And it's going to allow them versatility. Their week one game is going to be against the Jets. That's a team that's going to have some good perimeter cornerbacks. They could attack the middle of the Jets' defense with Kincaid, and that might be their plan for week one.

All right. More on the schedule in a little bit. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask will get even reps during summer practices. Do you guys think that this is a legit competition for Tampa Bay, Mayfield and Trask? I can't imagine that it wouldn't be. I mean, you know,

Trask has been in their building now for two seasons and Mayfield has obviously been bounced around the league now for two seasons. So does he get the chance to just walk in immediately and get handed the job? It's not like he is that secure, I think, just coming off of the situation. I think if you just look at it, he played really well for the Rams. So hopefully he's going to build off that as opposed to build off the Baker Mayfield we saw in Carolina. But, I mean, look, it makes sense just to give Kyle Tr that as opposed to build off the Baker Mayfield we saw in Carolina. But, I mean, look, it makes sense just to give Kyle Trask the opportunity to compete for the job,

but I would be very shocked if it's not Baker Mayfield week one. All right, back to another report. Matt Schneidman of The Athletic predicted the top five leaders in receptions for the Packers. And he went with Romeo Dobbs, one, Christian Watson, two, Aaron Jones, three, and then a couple of rookies, tight end Luke Musgrave, four, wide receiver Jaden Reed, five. When you think about that, Dobbs leading the team in receptions.

Thoughts? I don't think it's that far off. I mean, you know, you think about how last season started, where Watson really struggled and Dobbs was really their, in a lot of cases, their best receiver, you know, because Alan Lazar was banged up to start the season. So I still would probably, if I had to put a number of receptions, who would be first? I'll go back to what I said last year. I think it's still Aaron Jones, you know, because this offense is still going to operate the same way. He's going to be a different quarterback. And so I think Jones would be one, but I wouldn't necessarily think this is a, oh my God, panic on Christian Watson. I think this is, you should be more excited about Romeo Dobbs. You know, I'll go back to what I said, following the owner's meetings. You know, I think he is someone you should consider as early as like that round eight, round nine range, you know, just a, on the cusp of a number three wide receiver. He had a 63% catch rate last year. Pretty good target share, 21.7 target per route run rate,

eight red zone targets, three touchdowns. He's just got to hold on to the ball. That's where it starts with him. If he can do that, then he should be able to outplay Jaden Reed and be a starter in that offense. And as far as leading the team in catches, you can make the case for it. Absolutely. I agree with Jamie on that. But I'm a little worried about the team in catches, you can make the case for it. Absolutely. I agree with Jamie on that.

But I'm a little worried about the floor for him. And the floor could be the bench for Dobbs. All right. How about this one from ESPN's David Newton? He says that the goal is to get Miles Sanders to 50 catches. Now, that would be a pretty big deal. We don't get a ton of those these days. Anyone buying it?

Trust or bust that report. 50 catches for Miles Sanders. I would trust the report that they're going to try. But, you know, it's a question of will they succeed. I do think that this is going to be, if not the best year of receptions for Miles Sanders, the second best year of receptions. I mean, you have everything in place. You have a young quarterback that's certainly shown the ability to throw to his running backs. He did

at Alabama with Jameer Gibbs. You have a guy that's in a system with coaches that have used, you know, I think we kind of forget a little bit that not only was Deuce Daly with him in Philadelphia, so was Frank Reich. And, you know, this is a situation where, you know, they might, they might value that as well. So I think we could see, you know, those might, they might value that as well. Um, so I think we could see, you know, those two things and then look at the competition. I mean, you know, Chuba Hubbard and, and Blackshear, you know, I don't think these are guys that are going to take Miles Sanders off the field for significant stretches. So, uh, we, we talked about this yesterday, Adam, during the draft because Miles Sanders went in the fourth round in our half PPR draft.

And when I asked Heath about it, because I know Heath is very excited about Miles Sanders, he said he would take him at the two, three turn. Now that's too high for me, but I do think round four is the, is the sweet spot for him. It is the dead zone. So you have to, you know, sort of understand that he may be a bust, but I do think everything is aligned for him to be successful. A very good, an underrated offensive line that I think performed very well last year,

a system that's going to feature him. Forget about anything reception-wise. This is still Frank Wright coming from Indianapolis where they had Jonathan Taylor, again, different player, but two years ago was an MVP candidate. And running back coach that knows him. Offense coordinator that knows him, excuse me. And not a lot of competition for touches. So I think there's reason to be encouraged by Miles Sanders.

So if we're talking, you know, the guys that are going to go around him, probably a better situation than Damian Pierce, if you want to compare those two. Probably a better situation than Dalvin Cook right now, if you want to draft those two guys. And if you're looking at just touches, he's probably better than the Detroit guys because they're going to cannibalize each other a little bit.

Yeah, it's pretty interesting. Get a ton of featured backs that you can get in round four. Where did he go? Like middle round four? He went, it was definitely round four. I'm not sure exactly what spot. Okay. All right, a couple more news items here,

and then we'll get into trust or bust. The Saints signed Foster Morrow. Tight end Foster Morrow. Dave, do you care? Does this matter for Jawan Johnson or anyone else? and then we'll get into trust or bust the saint signed foster morrow tight end foster morrow dave do you care does this matter for juwan johnson or anyone else i don't think it really matters that much as far as the scheme goes here the two things to know about are number one first of all it's an awesome story because he was diagnosed with i don't want to get this wrong what was it yeah okay and he's coming out of it just fine. And he's going to play, gets a new contract on top of it. And he's reunited with Derek Carr. We know that there's

a connection there. Is he going to take Jawan Johnson off the field a considerable amount? I'd, I'd be surprised. I think he'll play on running downs and, and that'll be the majority of his role for the saints. There it goes. Taysom Hill running behind him for a touchdown, stealing one from Camara and Kendra Miller. for the Saints. There goes Taysom Hill. Running behind him for a touchdown, stealing one from Kamara and Kendra Miller and everybody else. And tonight's a big night in the NFL. The schedule will be released.

We already know some dates. Christmas is going to be interesting for me as I'll be watching Giants-Eagles with some Eagles fans. But season opener is Detroit-Kansas City. We got Monday night. Week one is Bill's Jets, right? Yep.

And we'll find out. Yes, that's going to be fun. Yeah, that will be awesome. And yeah, we'll know a lot more. We'll know everything tonight. And we'll react to it. We'll have a bonus pod for you tonight with our schedule reaction.

Maybe some players that have easy early season matchups. We'll talk about the binatos, those types of things. So bonus pod coming later today. Break coming right now. And when we come back, trust or bust starting with the number one pick last year

who was a total bust. Are we back to trusting him again in 2023? We'll be right back. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit, more cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days and the ability to reach further with access to over 1400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful

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He played in 11 games, but remember one of those games he left after just one touch. So basically he played in 10 games. And in those 10 games, I mean, even adjusting, he was number 11 per game in non-PPR, number 12 per game in full PPR. It wasn't just the injuries. The performance wasn't nearly as good. So trust or bust Jonathan Taylor. You got to use a first round pick. I wasn't just the injuries. The performance wasn't nearly as good. So, trust or bust Jonathan Taylor. You gotta use a first-round pick.

I think in the consensus rankings. By the way, very cool feature now we have on CBSSports.com. Go to CBSSports.com slash fantasy slash football. Click on the rankings. We now have the consensus rankings listed. I think he's eighth in the consensus rankings in PPR. So, Dave,

trust or bust Jonathan Taylor as a say, mid-first-round pick? I'm going to trust him. We saw last year 14.4. Is that what you said was his per-game average in PPR? If you take out the game, he only played one snap. I think injuries get him in. I said he was 12th per game. I didn't say the number.

That's horrible, by the way. That's almost about nine points lower than it was the year before. Agreed, but I don't even know if that's his floor. I think his floor is a little bit higher than that. As long as he stays healthy, I think he'll be okay. He played through an ankle sprain. He had turf toe. The ankle sprain was so bad that he had

surgery for it in January. I think this offense could also be a little bit more conservative. They're either going to have a rookie quarterback who's only started 13 games in college under center, or they're going to have Gardner Minshew. They've got an offensive line that's, I think it's okay. I don't think it's as good as it once was, but I think it'll be good enough.

And Taylor's a really good player. I'm happy to trust him to be my RB1. He's a first-round pick. You trust him, Jamie? Trust your boss, Jonathan Taylor. I do. You know, I'm looking at his game log from last year, and when he came back from the second absence, I'm going to guess it was.

Yeah, the second absence from Week 10 through 13, it was three of those games were 16 PPR points or more, and the only one that didn't in that stretch was he didn't score against the Cowboys in week 13. So I think you know what you're getting. You're getting a guy that's going to get 20 plus touches on a week to week basis. That's awesome. I do think that we have a coach, you know, we could say all these things about what Shane Steichen and the system he was part of in Philadelphia and what that could hopefully do for Anthony Richardson. It was unbelievable

for Miles Sanders. Now, granted, the offensive line was great, but Sanders had a rebirth, you know, just what he performed last year and scored 13 touchdowns. You know, so I think there's still a chance for double-digit touchdowns. I think there's still a chance for, you know, 35-plus catches. He did that, you know, in his breakout season two years ago. And so he's never going to be a 50 catch guy unless they just change everything. And I don't think that's going to happen with Richardson under center because we know that

mobile quarterbacks tend to escape as opposed to dump the ball off. So you got to hope that he doesn't lose too many short yard area touchdowns like Sanders did at times. You have to hope that, you know, the, this offense just isn't completely inept. And obviously there's no semblance of a passing game. But I do think that, you know, depending on where you get him in the first round. And for me, he's now behind Bijan.

He's behind Barkley and PPR. I think I keep flip-flopping those two guys, but still a top five guy. But I still think that like, for example, I got him at 11 yesterday in a half PPR league. That's ridiculous value you know so if he goes after kelsey if he goes after the first three receivers which is what happened there um and you may see him you know depending on how this offense looks in the

preseason if it really struggles you may see him fall behind some quarterbacks you know based on how adp is probably going to look with mahomes and potentially alan and hertz going in the first round so it would not be a surprise if he slips to the back end of the first round consistently. But you know what you're getting. Still young, still explosive, still going to be the feature guy. And there's a lot to just love about what Taylor should be doing in a bounce back here. And we shouldn't understate the efficiency that should increase because he's playing with a running quarterback. And I did some data digging.

I don't care. Do you guys want to hear it or not? Sure. About running quarterback. And I did some data digging. I don't care if you, do you guys want to hear it or not? Sure. About running backs. Okay. So I looked at the lead running backs on teams with a top five quarterback and rushing yards. So this is Chicago, Philly, Baltimore, Buffalo, and the giants.

Um, all the lead running backs average, at least four yards per carry. Four of them were at 4.4. Four of the five running backs were above league average in yards before contact per rush and top 13 overall in yards before contact per rush. That means that defenses have to play and maybe pause a little bit because they have to count for the quarterback as a possible guy with the football.

Three were also well above average in explosive run rates and top 15 overall. And the list does not include J.K. Dobbins, who was just crazy explosive last year. Keep that name in mind on draft day, people. He was tied for first with 5.7 yards per carry, first with 2.57 yards before contact per rush, and first in explosive run rate last year.

Nor does the list include Khalil Herbert, who was tied with Dobbins in yards per carry, fifth in yards before contact per rush, and third in explosive run rate. These are all running backs of different flavors, different sizes, different shapes, and Jonathan Taylor is better than pretty much all of them when it comes to talent. And so that efficiency that he should gain, assuming Anthony Richardson knows what he's doing and he runs the football, could lead to him having a very good year on the ground.

And he might have his best year. I don't I don't know what to expect. It's hard to project the catches with Richardson. But when they traded, it's going to be bad. Well, when they traded, I mean, it could be, but he could also be an outlet. My point is, though, when they traded, Naeem Hines played four games without Hines, not including the Minnesota game where he left on the first drive, he dominated the third down snaps. He had almost every third down snap among the running backs.

So when Hines was out of the picture, Jonathan Taylor, the snap counts actually went up. He was almost in every down back. So we'll see if that carries over. It'll be a question of design receptions or design passing plays versus the escapability versus dump off passes. So the design passing plays will probably help him,

but how many of those are going to actually be where he's the number one option on that play? And Richardson was in the bottom quarter in target rate to running backs among qualifying quarterbacks in college last year all right let's go to josh jacobs here jacobs trust or bust he was on a per game basis number two in non-ppr number three in ppr he had an amazing year i mean over 2 000 total yards he's played every game jamie trust or bust jonathan Taylor. And I apologize. Where did he go?

Oh, it's not Jonathan Taylor. We did him. Josh Jacobs. Where did he go in yesterday's draft? I think he went ahead of him. He went ahead of Jonathan Taylor. I think he was sixth. So I don't want to trust him there,

but I still will trust him if I get him in round two. You know, so I think, again, you look at it, this is a guy that's not coming off the field. You know, there's nothing in that backfield that suggests, especially with the same coaching staff, oh, this is the year for Zemir White. I just don't see that happening. With a quarterback that I think is going to be more of a game manager than what they had and maybe throw the ball to him even more so in Jimmy Garoppolo,

he's going to have another fantastic season. I love the fact that he's still playing for a contract. He didn't get his long-term deal. So as long as there's no issues about him not reporting and holding out in any of those stories, you know, he's still got a chance to be in the mix for a top five overall player and top five overall running back. So yes, I will still trust him. I just don't want to take him in the first round.

And the floor is what he did in each of his prior three years to 2022, which is anywhere from 14.1 to 14.3 PPR points per game. That's not first round good, and it's really not second round good, but it's still an okay floor for a running back who has exhibited that type of consistency. I think you have to buy into it. I'm a little nervous about the workload. He had 393 touches last year, 23.1 touches per game. That's about three touches per game higher than his previous career high. And I wonder if Garoppolo, the game manager, being under center, changes the way that defenses go after the Raiders, along with Waller not being there. I think that those are two important

changes that might impact just how many defenders will be keying in on Jacobs, both as a runner and a pass catcher. He's a round two pick. I'm good with him there. Definitely don't like him in round one. I would say, though, the loss of Waller is probably made up with the addition of Myers, the addition of Mayer, and maybe a healthy Hunter-Enfro. Sure. Yeah, maybe. Okay, A.J. Brown. I want to talk about aj brown it's pretty interesting he finished as the number five wide receiver in fantasy number seven per game last year uh he's based on the last two drafts that we've done now mid round two uh he went 16th overall aj brown in yesterday's draft

right after davante adams and just ahead of of Garrett Wilson. You get these sort of proven guys and Stefan Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Devontae Adams, then after that, A.J. Brown is definitely proven, although last year was certainly his best. And then you get Garrett Wilson, Jalen Waddell, Amonra St. Brown. But do you trust A.J. Brown, guys, as a top 20 overall pick, yes without question he's the top dog in Philadelphia's

passing game uh I don't see Philadelphia making Jalen Hurts the highest paid quarterback in the league and and they didn't make a big splash in the run game and then they're going to go back to the run a little bit more and not let Hurts be the MVP of the team. I don't see that happening. A.J. Brown, 17.6 PPR points per game. Career best for him his first year in Philadelphia. Head coach is still the play caller in Philly, and that didn't change this offseason. And I think Brown's just going to continue to pick up a lot of targets.

He was 16th in targets per game among wide receivers last year. That number has room to grow, and that's scary to think about. And he was also good. Whether Goddard was healthy or not, you can go back and look at, I think his best game of the year, Goddard was on the field. So was Devante Smith. This is going to continue to be a pass leaning offense that AJ Brown's going to be the top target getter. Yeah. I don't know. I just don't know about the targets having room to grow. I was going to say the same thing. That's the only thing I would probably disagree with is that unless they just completely flip and become such a pass-heavy team,

which I don't know if that's going to change. Like you said, Dave, still the same coach, still the same play caller. And as much as they paid Jalen Hurts, I still think they want him to be the same type of player that he was last year and run something of a similar offense than they ran last year because it was awesome. And so as long long as Devante Smith and Dallas Goddard stay healthy because we even saw it it's not like his target spike when Goddard wasn't there so that's the only reason that you would maybe fear A.J. Brown is that does he not produce at

the same level does 11 touchdowns go to maybe eight and does Devante Smith grow in his third season does Dallas Goddard you know maybe take a little bit more because he plays a full season? And that's a little bit of a problem. And so I think you trust him because, as Dave said, he is the top guy in this offense. He's paired with an MVP candidate. They may throw the ball a little bit more just because of their run game being a little bit suspect, at least based on what it looks like on paper right now. But I think you're just looking at A.J. Brown.

Yes, Adam, I would take him as a top 20 pick. Yes, I think he belongs right after that group of the elite, elite wide receivers. I think he's just one tier down, and that's not an insult by any stretch. It's just that he's in a crowded offense that's not going to be as pass-heavy as some of those other guys. So to me, if you go running back round one, A.J. Brown round two, you should be pretty happy about the start that you have, or even Travis Kelsey and A.J. Brown one and two.

So I love the setup for him. Yeah, I brought this guy up because we don't talk too much about A.J. Brown. I sort of take him for granted. I am a little bit worried about him as a second round pick, as a top 20 pick, because he had the second most touchdown catches last year of 25 or more yards behind only Devontae Adams. So he was pretty big play reliant. And a lot of the advantages that he had over Devontae Smith in the first half of the year disappeared in the second half of the year.

In fact, I think it was the last nine games, basically starting with the game in which Dallas got hurt. Devontae Smith, I'm pretty sure, had more targets. And then in the playoffs, you know, Jalen Hurts was pretty bad. He wasn't nearly himself. He was playing hurt. In the playoffs, the targets Hurts was pretty bad. He wasn't nearly himself. He was playing hurt. In the playoffs, the targets were very even between the three of them. And not what you're looking for on a team that was 23rd in pass attempts. I think –

It's concentrated targets, though. I mean, it's him, it's Smith, it's God. He averaged 20.9 PPR points per game in the last six of the regular season. Yeah, he was great. But I'm saying I see some issues here because I think— Well, two of those came with Minshew, though. Two of those came with Minshew. Some of them probably came without Dallas Goddard.

But I see some potential issues. And look, I mean, I'm trying to talk about guys we haven't talked about before, have discussions we haven't had before. So this is part of this. But the potential issues to me for A.J. Brown are Devontae Smith takes another step. I mean, I think you guys have already said this. But also, I believe they threw the fewest passes in the NFL to their running backs last year.

I would expect that to change now with DeAndre Swift on the team. So it's basically just a lot of target competition, a lot of target competition. And usually when you have a wide receiver going in round two and another one going in round three on the same team, think about the amount of the difference in pass attempts we expect from the Bengals compared to the Eagles.

And the Dolphins. And the Dolphins. Yeah, good point. And they don't have tight ends that are part of the equation too. And they don't really have DeAndre Swift. I'm not going to put Devon H.A. in that group. Maybe Mixon. He had a lot of catches last year. I would say Tyler Boyd's a pretty high-end third receiver

comparatively to most teams. Yeah, I guess so. He doesn't make a huge impact when those two guys are healthy. But I just think for a low pass volume offense, I think there's a lot of risk actually in taking A.J. Brown as a top 20 pick specifically in a PPR league because he usually doesn't catch more than 61% of his targets because he's a deep ball guy. So he might be an 85 catch guy.

That's really not a lot. So you need the touchdowns. I don't want to make this a math problem. He's one of the best receivers in football. But if I were a projections guy, I wish Heath were here today. I do see some potential pitfalls in A.J. Brown. I mean, you're definitely right when you talk about where this is. But I think to go back to Dave's point, this is how you continue the evolution of Jalen Hurts. So I don't think they're going to become, again, a very pass heavy team.

But that's the next evolution is they throw the ball a little bit more, you know, so maybe it's 10% more, maybe it's 15% more, you know, whatever number you want to attach to it. Because that's what they just told you. You know, again, you got to look at what teams tell us. They paid Jalen Hurts for a reason. And at some point, and I don't think it's going to happen this year, but at some point he has to go from, okay, now everything is 50-50. And I don't think that's the case, but 50-50 running, throwing to where now it's a little bit slanted more to staying more in the pocket, a little bit more plays in the pocket. And we saw that in the Super Bowl, you know, and we saw how he threw the ball in the Super Bowl. It was, it was fantastic.

You know, maybe that's when he was finally healthy as well. So I think what you're doing in taking these two guys and, you know, adding Smith into the conversation is you're attaching yourself to one of the best quarterbacks in the league and that's not a bad place to start and then you look at the talent well aj brown has now been productive with ryan tannahill and jalen hertz as a developing quarterback and so again that just continues to hopefully add to what his resume is and so yes the big plays are not necessarily something you want to bank on but he continues to make them in two different stops year after year. And so it just speaks to, I think how good that he is. And so if that's something that concerns you, then you pass on him, you know, does, does Garrett Wilson have the chance to exceed AJ Brown? Absolutely. You

know, you're pairing him now with one of the most accurate quarterbacks ever. And so he's going to be the alpha on that team. For me, Amar' is better than aj brown and ppr because i think he's going to have more receptions and still continue to produce you know so those are really the receivers that we're talking about then if you want to extend that to jaylen wallow and t higgins i get it you know waddle was awesome last year with to a tongue of my love but you know what the issues are there so i think if you start to you know go through the second round receivers and that's not including you know the guys getting pushed down ahead of them you know the the devante the, the Devante Adams and maybe CD lamb. I think AJ Brown, again, is in that next tier.

And it's just a matter of, if you feel comfortable enough to take the number one guy with what might be the number one quarterback in fantasy, uh, it's, it's again, that's, that's the starting point. I think for any conversation you have with AJ Brown. Okay. I, I think that it's tough, that spot at wide receiver there in round two i feel like a little queasy with those guys in round two and that's why i think a lot of quarterbacks are going off the board they're not in our drafts right so that's your pivot well it also comes

down to you know what did you do in round one you know so did you go with one of those five or six running backs that are going the first round and then you want to not necessarily go running back, running back. But if you go receiver in the first round, then you can easily avoid A.J. Brown because now you're talking probably Josh Jacobs, probably Derrick Henry, probably Nick Chubb, maybe ETN. If Hall's healthy, he'll be in that range. So yeah, there's a lot of running backs that'll be there.

So if you go round one receiver, then you don't have to go receiver, receiver, and you have one of those top 10 running backs. All right, let's talk about Ramondre Stevenson, Dave. Trust or bust Ramondre Stevenson? I've been seeing him in the third round in a lot of our drafts, and I...

Am I missing him? Oh, he went, I'm sorry, he went 24th. Last pick of the second round. Ramondre Stevenson, let's say 2-3 turn in a 12 team league. Trust or bust. I'm trusting him. And I know it's, it's so dangerous trusting new England Patriots running backs.

It's always been risky, but look at the Patriots depth chart and tell me who you're nervous about. Stevenson losing significant playing time too. I'm going to give you the names. You just stop me. If you're nervous about any of these guys, Ty Montgomery, James Robinson, Pierre Strong, JJ Taylor, Kevin Harris. Now, did my connection break up? Cause I didn't hear anything. Probably, but my connection was probably broken up too. So I didn't notice.

Okay. I don't know if I've ever felt this confident about a running back going into Patriots training camp with the chance to be not just like their one a, but their one a B C D. Like, I think he could end up doing it all for them. And it doesn't hurt that he averaged almost 15 PPR points per game last year. I've got them ranked as RB 11. I think that's exactly where he should go.

And I don't even mind if somebody who is nervous about A.J. Brown losing target volume, Amon Ross St. Brown losing target volume, Garrett Wilson trusting a jet, Jalen Waddell trusting Tua Tungabailoa, and there's a running back run in front of them going to get Ramondre Stevenson because he figures to have a big role in an offense that should be better aligned this year with Bill O'Brien as

the play caller. Jamie, you've always trusted, uh, since the beginning of the off season, Ramondre Stevenson here still trust. Yeah. I mean, I, I, I love him in round two. I think he's got the chance to be, you know, build off what he did last year. You know, Dave sort of illustrated it, you know, there's not a lot of, uh, uh, of, you know, players behind him on the, on the depth chart that should take him off the field. And look, we'll probably go through a stretch where there's a Ty Montgomery weeks of, you know, out catching him or Pierre strong out catching him or James Robinson,

maybe stealing a touchdown or two, if he's looking good for the Patriots, if he even makes the team, you know, so there will be one of those scenarios, but now you have still a run first team, a better play caller with Bill O'Brien there, hopefully a better Mac Jones. And, you know, and so I think this Patriots team has a chance to be terrible. I mean, there's no way around it. You know, you just look at some of the pieces that they have offensively and, and it's hard to say, okay, this is a great team, especially since Mac Jones hasn't taken that step forward. But again, looking at what they gave him

to work with last year, isn't exactly fair. But Stevenson is the catalyst of this offense. He was last year, you know, when Damian Harris wasn't there. And I think he will be again, you know, so the receptions I think is what will sway him from being maybe a top five caliber running back to, you know, hopefully just not a guy that's going to hover around the top 15 because he should be their goal line guy, should be their first and second down guy. And if he's involved in the passing game as he was last year, then he's got a chance passing game as he was last year, then he's got a chance for 50 catches in this offense. So I think there's just a lot to love about, you know,

Stevenson and his setup. All right, let's take a break. When we come back, I'll ask you about Isaiah Pacheco. We'll get to see him on a Thursday night to start the season. Isaiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones, and more, and your emails after this on Fantasy Football Today. Metrolinx and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks.

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Hit the live tab. You'll see an archive of all of our live shows. You can watch them live or you can watch them on demand, but we would really appreciate it if you would hit like. That helps us out a lot. Isaiah Pacheco from weeks 10 through 18. This is why I don't really trust him. I mean, where he goes, I think it's fine. But weeks 10

through 18, he had 126 carries. He had only 10 catches. He was good. Scored eight touchdowns. He was the number 24 running back per game in full PPR. Now in, no, number 27 per game in full PPR. Number 24 per game in half PPR. This team does not produce good fantasy running backs. They just don't. So trust or bust Isaiah Pacheco, Dave? I'm leaning bust on Pacheco. Averaged 11.7 PPR points per game in those final nine.

That is from week 10 on. That's when he was starting to play a lot more in the offense. What does that mean, playing a lot more? He played between 35% and 56% of the snaps. That's right. He was never a feature back. He only played 26 third-down snaps all year, including the playoffs. He did have at least 11.1 PPR points in each of the three playoff games,

but still was stuck in that 35% to 50%. He actually hit 57% in the playoffs. So props to him. I think he'll be their lead back. I don't know if he's got to really fend off Clyde Edwards, he layer in a major way in order to keep that job, but seems to be a touchdown reliant running back. Who's not going to contribute a lot in the way of catches to your fantasy

team. Jamie, let's look at where Pacheco went yesterday. He went with the last pick of round five, 60th overall. In between, it was back-to-back-to-back, Joe Mixon, Isaiah Pacheco, and Damian Pierce. You took Mixon ahead of Pacheco and Pierce, but your thoughts, trust or bust Pacheco? He shouldn't be going in that range with those other guys still on the

board. And we had a pretty lengthy discussion on this. Scott fish is the one that drafted him. So if you want to hear what Scott said, by the way, if you have that draft in front of you, Dave and I should grade Scott's draft. What a horrible hosting job I did yesterday,

Adam. So we graded everybody's draft who was on the show. We had a lot of people on the show. And then I thought I was last for some reason. And I was like, okay, bye. And then Scott's like, Scott's like, uh, yeah, I would give myself a D. Um, uh, but in any event, um,

he should not go there. And so if that's where he's going, if he's going around five, and I think, you know, I might've even said this, you know, maybe prior to the NFL draft that that was a good spot for him. I think at least around later is where he should be going. But I do think that he is going to be the lead running back for the Chiefs. I do think that he is going to hopefully take a step in some area of his production, whether it is scoring more touchdowns or being more involved in the passing game. Remember, again, look at the offseason. What did they tell us?

They brought back a 31-year-old Jarrett McKinnon, and they declined the option on Clyde Edwards-Hilaire. Does that mean that they're all in on Isaiah Pacheco for the future? Well, we've noted this a few times, that running backs that are day three guys or undrafted free agents like James Robinson, for example, they don't usually have a lengthy time as featured guys because they're going in that range for a reason. Now, as you can tell by Isaiah Pacheco,

he was one of the fastest running backs coming into the draft two years ago. He had a, you know, probably an underrated season at Rutgers. I know Joe piece of Pia when we had him on, you know, earlier this week, he said,

or maybe it was last week. I'm sorry. But he was talking about how, you know, he was kind of one of the guys he was targeting the draft because just, you know, not, not a lot of people talking about him and it proved to be in his rookie

drafts and it proved to be right. So we say this a lot about the chiefs. It takes time to learn this offense. You know, does he fully have a grasp on it now? You would hope so. And does he have the chance to be more involved in the receiver? Well, he has six catch game in the playoffs against the Bengals, you know, so they trusted him in some capacity there to, you know, put the ball in his hands in the passing game and he delivered. And so I think that's the next evolution. Can he be a little bit more involved in the passing game? Does he, because the lack of his hands in the passing game and he delivered. And so I think that's the next evolution. Can he be a little bit more involved in the passing game? Does he, because the lack of consistent threats in the passing game,

obviously Kelsey's the monster, but now you're talking about Cadareous, Tony Skymore. Well, they scored in the Superbowl. It was only cash that they had in the Superbowl. No more Juju. Reggie Rice.

We don't know what he's going to do. Marco's about to scan. Let me know. Disappears at times. So maybe there's just a little bit more in the hands of the running backs. And Andy Reid has certainly been creative enough to do that with his guys in the past. So I think Isaiah Pacheco in the right spot is absolutely worth trusting. But if you're reaching for him and taking him ahead of Damian Pierce

and taking him in the same range as, for now, Joe Mixon, but that round five range, to me that's too soon. So late round six, early round seven, I think, is where you want to target somebody like him. And it'll be interesting to see, does he outproduce the James Connors, the DeAndre Swifts, those other guys that are going in that type of range? And I think that's where it'll come down to how much you trust Isaiah Pacheco. All right, let's talk about Aaron Jones here, Dave. Trust or bust Aaron Jones as a third round pick in a 12-team league. He was RB11 per game in full PPR last year, RB15 per game in non-PPR,

and he only had two carries inside the five-yard line. A.J. Dillon had 10 last year, so that's what concerns me. Plus, I just don't know. I've said this before, but such a great chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. That's obviously gone. That's a worry. that's that's a worry and the fact that he's 28 years old is a worry but i i just love the consistency that we've gotten out of him over the past two seasons 14.6 14.5 ppr points per game annually respectively and last year 14.6 while he only scored two rushing touchdowns that makes excited. He didn't play that many more snaps than A.J. Dillon, but he was more efficient across the board than A.J. Dillon. Dillon only

had him beaten rushing touchdowns. Yep. Rushing touchdowns and some other stats. Great. Dillon was better. There he is. Okay. Where did you last hear me? Your thumb up on A.J. Dillon. Dillon was only better than him he is. Okay. Where did you last hear me?

Okay. Your thumb up on AJ Dylan. Dylan was only better than him in rushing touchdowns. Dylan's only better in rushing touchdowns and two other categories that don't really matter. Everything else, including avoided tackle rate. Aaron Jones was better. And I think Green Bay's offense will be a little more run friendly, a little more up-tempo. And you heard what I said about efficiency for running backs with running quarterbacks earlier in the show with Jonathan Taylor. Well, Jordan Love's going to be a rushing threat too.

And I think that'll help Aaron Jones when he's on the field. Trust or bust, Jamie? Round three, Aaron Jones. I think it's worth trusting. This is a guy that's been tried and true and one of the better pass catchers in the league at his position, you know, since his time in the NFL. So I can't, I can't see even with the quarterback change, them going away from putting the ball in his hands. And again, what did they do this off season? You know, they made an effort to bring him back on a reduced salary because they

wanted him there. They just didn't want to pay him at that same level. And clearly he wanted to be there as well. So I think as long as you're not overvaluing Aaron Jones, and I don't know if round three is that range because it could be, but, uh, I think, you know, if you go receiver receiver and this is your first running back, you should be thrilled about that. Would you guys take Aaron Jones or Najee Harris? I have Najee one spot ahead of Aaron Jones, just youth, you know, and I think I, I, I don't think I like the additions that the Steelers made to their offensive line. And look, Najee was really good toward the back end of the season last year. So PPR Aaron Jones probably has a chance to be better than him if the reception totals stay the same. But Najee may get back to being a double digit touchdown guy.

And I think that's going to help sway the difference between two. Yeah, that's a huge tiebreaker. I should have done trust or bust on Najee Harris. That would have been a good one. Yeah, that's a good one. Imagine it being not too late. You're in the middle of the show. No, it's too late. I can't do it. It's against the rules.

If it wasn't in the rundown, then it can't be on the show. Why don't we put it to a vote with the YouTubers? We've got two names left on the list, right? Yes, YouTubers. Should we do Keenan Allen or Najee Harris? Trust or bust.

You tell the comments, Keenan Allen or Najee Harris. I'll give you guys. I'm going to say Najee. I got to get started finding some numbers. 30 seconds. Najee Harris stinks, man.

But that's, that's no, he doesn't, he doesn't, but trying to kill some time here while I, uh, get my Najee Harris. He's got some of the worst metrics in the NFL among running backs.

It's alarming. He does not have a run. Okay. 579 career carries. He does not have a run longer than 37 yards. That is really bad for Najee Harris. But also, I don't know. Just look at all the advanced metrics that I look at a lot. He ranks toward the bottom in most of them. What do you got? Najee Harris, I think, is the winner here. Trust or bust Najee Harris. Same range as Aaron Jones.

Round three. I'm going to say, all right, I'll just, since I've been so opinionated today, I'm just going to say bust. Yeah, he just hasn't been a good running back. And I think he depends on high volume. And his role in the passing game is uncertain without Ben Roethlisberger. I don't, you know, what did he have last year? He had 41 catches in 17 games. That's not good. He did leave one game early. If he continues to underperform,

I could see him losing his job to Jalen Warren. I could see it. I could see at least him losing half of his job, losing some of those reliable touches. If he gets down to 15 carries per game or something, that is a total bust. This guy is extremely volume dependent. He's going to have to be a better rusher than he's been in his first two years for him to come through, in my opinion.

So I'm going to say bust Najee Harris in the third round. Jamie? No, I'm going to trust him. I think the additions that the Steelers made this offseason to their offensive line, including bringing in a very good run-blocking tight end, are going to significantly help the situation for Najee Harris. And so, yes, the reception total is, I think, clearly what boosted him, you know, in his rookie campaign. But I also think you got to look at, for the last two years, he's run behind a terrible offensive line, you know, with Roethlisberger

at the end of his tenure and then the first year with Kenny Pickett. Then the hope would be is that Pickett maybe, you know, develops a little bit more as a quarterback and and trust is running back to catch passes your point is definitely valid if he struggles i don't know to what extent he struggles but if he struggles then jaylen warren might take over because clearly mike tomlin likes jaylen warren it might be the first time that we see multiple backs used consistently because they talked about that last year and it never really came to fruition but um i think just you look at the volume for naji harris i think the steelers offense is going to be better this year than it was last year because of the improvements on the line, the improvements of Kenny Pickett. So Najee Harris being that guy is going to, I think, just

lend itself to him producing at a higher level. And we saw that at the end of last season, you know, maybe as Pickett got a little bit more comfortable and Najee sort of settled into his role a little bit more as not necessarily just having to be the go-to option for Roethlisberger, more so a traditional running back. So yes, there are some alarming things about him, but I think everything that the Steelers did this offseason gives me reason to trust him. I don't know if you can find one stat that makes you feel good about Najee Harris other than the workload and even the workload.

In the last six games, he was playing right around 60 to 65% of the snaps in most of those games. So they were kind of treating him as the 1A back and Warren as the passing downs, third downs type of guy. Still couldn't average four yards per carry. I know that he was healthier during those games. You know all the issues that he had with his foot. But everything from his rush EPA, yards before and after contact explosive run rate avoided tackle rate. That was supposed to be something that he was great in, man.

There's nothing good to say about it. And so the only thing that you can look at now, you can say, all right, this is what I'm getting with them. And it's almost like you have to cross your fingers on it is workload. And you have to hope that he finds a way to get 21 touches per game, which is what he was averaging in those last six games. His last four was 22 or more touches. Right.

Okay. But I think that it's hard to buy into him as a number one, even a low and number one running back. And you're going to be a little squeamish when you take him in round three. It's just a matter of how you feel about Najee versus other running backs in the range that we're talking about. I think people are going to end up taking Mixon ahead of him, Etienne ahead of him, Aaron Jones ahead of him,

and he's going to fall into a range where you're going to have to make a decision on Najee versus Kenneth Walker, Damian Pierce, J.K. Dobbins, Jameer Gibbs. And it wouldn't surprise me if the guys that had a profile to be better pass catchers or just explosive runners went ahead of Najee. He's not going to be a popular guy. Well, all the negative things I said about him, I actually do think it's pretty easy to make a positive case for him

because he doesn't really have great competition behind him. I say Jalen Warren, maybe, but it's kind of like what you were saying with Andre Stevenson. He doesn't have great competition behind him. There's no serious threat there. Like, for example, you know, David Montgomery. Harris reminds me of David Montgomery,

a guy who could just get so many touches and be a reliable fantasy starter, not necessarily going to win you your league. But Khalil Herbert ate into the workload a little bit. But I don't know that they have a Khalil Herbert on this team. And, you know, the last, so after the bye week, they not only did maybe he get a little bit healthier because he hurt his foot just before the season started.

That's a huge deal, right? He could have been playing with a foot injury the whole year, Najee Harris. After the bye week, he was the number seven running back per game in half PPR and number nine per game in full PPR. They ran the ball a lot more. They scored a lot more. They had TJ Watt back that made a huge difference. They had the ball more. Their defense got better, and they ran and ran and ran. So it's not hard to make the case for Harris, but someone's going to be a bust in round three. Half of round three is probably going to be a bust. Half of round one might be a bust. Hopefully not. But some of these guys I have to say bust on. So I guess, Najee, I guess I'm being harsh.

All right, anyway, last one is TJ Hawkinson. TJ Hawkinson. How about Scott Fish? You want to critique Scott Fish's team? His first four picks were a former Viking, then CeeDee Lamb, and then two current Vikings, at least for now. Stefan Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, TJ Hawkinson, Dalvin Cook. He took Hawkinson 36th overall.

Hawkinson does have the potential to be the number three tight end in most drafts. We shall see. That will be a debate, certainly, for the rest of the offseason. But trust or bust, TJ Hockinson is, let's say, a top four tight end and a fourth or fifth round pick. Dave,, go. I hesitate a little bit to say trust on Hawkinson. He did average 13 PPR points per game in his last 10 against Minnesota,

but that includes this monster game against the Giants. And if you take out that monster game against the Giants, it's 10.4, which is all right. I mean, you'd be happy if your tight end gave you 10 PPR points per game, but I don't know if he's going to be a game breaker anymore. I think adding Jordan Addison is going to be a huge deal for the Minnesota Vikings. They already have Justin Jefferson. I wonder if Hawkinson devolves into a touchdown or bus type of tight end. So I think I'm going to come out on the other side of this and say bust on

Hockinson. Jamie trust or bust TJ Hockinson. I mean, certainly if he's going around three, he's a bust, you know, and it's, uh,

it's one of those scenarios where, you know, I think it's just, if you compare him relative to the position, okay, so he's in a crowded offense. Well, so is Dallas Goddard.

So is, uh, George Kittle you know and and how much is he better or worse than those guys does he have the ability to be more proven based on what his career has shown you than what Kyle Pitts has shown you in the early part of his career and you know are you taking the chance on the upside of Pitts or are you taking the chance on what Hawkinson has shown even if you factor in his Detroit tenure so if you really buy into Jordan Addison and

obviously you know Dave and Heath have said that they do because they've knocked down Justin Jefferson a slight peg you know by dropping him from number one so you're going to say okay this is a better version of Adam Thielen in terms of Addison so that's going to obviously impact the entire offense and should if that's how you feel I do think though that Hawkinson is still got the opportunity to be second on the team in targets behind Jefferson. He's going to compete with Addison for that role. He might be second on the team in touchdowns, you know, just depending on how Kirk Cousins decides to use those guys in the red zone. You know, is he going to rely on the rookies? Are you going to rely on just, you know, completely going

to Jefferson? Or does Hawkinson have those chances as well? If they lose Dalvin Cook and this run game gets even worse because it wasn't exactly great last year, then maybe they become just more pass happy. And it's all about these past catchers and they all thrive. So I think Hawkinson for me right now is still the third tight end, but I do think if you're talking around three, I'm out around four. I'm probably out around five is probably where I would start to look for Hawkinson.

And I would say he's in a similar range to the guys for me that are behind him, which are Kyle pits, Dallas Goddard, and then Waller and Kittle. So I think he's definitely closer to that group than he is to the top two guys of Kelsey and Andrews. And the story on Hawkinson is he's a nice, reliable tight end. He just does not make big plays. Basically throughout his career. He just doesn't do it.

He's not an explosive player. So I could... But he had two games like that though last year, right? Well, three actually if you count the playoff game, which was also against the Giants. He had huge 30-plus PBR point games against the Seahawks and the Giants in the regular season. And then in the postseason, he had something like 120 yards,

didn't score against the Giants. But it's the playmaking ability. It's just not really his thing. So anyway, T.J. Hawkinson is our last guy here on Trust or Bust. Hats off to Thomas Schaefer for a terrific topic today. Thank you, Schaefer T. Let's read your emails. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com.

This is from Nick. Nick, where is he from, Dave? He is from Brooklyn, New York. I was wondering if you thought there was a lesson to be learned in Dynasty about trying to predict a draft class too far out. At this time last year, all I heard was 2024 firsts are gold, and as good as this 2023 class is, 2024 is going to be even deeper. Blah, blah, blah.

What do you guys think? Is there a lesson to be learned there? Sure. We overrated the class. Or I'll speak for myself. I'll speak for myself. We overrated the class or I'll speak for myself. I'll speak for myself. I overrated the class, but part of my argument for the class was the quality of quarterbacks that were going to be there. And I think the quarterbacks are going to be pretty good when it's all said and

done certainly young and Stroud. Um, so you never know what each class is going to bring. I probably won't be as excited about a draft class again until Arch Manning is in that draft class. And that's assuming that he plays well in his college career. Oh, Caleb Williams. Give the guy some. I wanted to ask you,

I was looking at our draft. So you traded from not mistaken, the chance to draft Christian Watson, which I think was the pick that you traded a lot more than that in our Yolo league last year. No, no, no, but the pick you ended up getting was the one you got, Zay Flowers, right? Right, right, right. So who would I rather have between Watson and Flowers?

Is that what you're going to ask me? Yeah. I mean, now that you have hindsight to look at it. And Flowers may be better, so it's hard to say. Yeah, it's tough. Yeah, I don't know if I'm ready to say that Flowers is the answer there. It's tough, man. We'll see how it plays out. I mean, it's kind of the. I don't know if I'm ready to say that flowers is the answer there. It's tough,

man. We'll see how it plays out. I mean, it's kind of the fun of dynasty league. And then the other trade, if I'm not mistaken, you traded the opportunity to draft Garrett Wilson. Yes.

That's the one I really regret. And you got what? Algier and Pierce. I don't remember all the picks. I should have drafted Pierce. I took Algier. I was very excited about Algier. And so you took Alec Pierce.

Oh, oh, Alec Pierce. I liked Alec Pierce. I still do about Algier. No, you took Alec Pierce. Oh, Alec Pierce. I liked Alec Pierce. I still do. I just think he's in a crummy situation. Oh, Jamie. I'm just going to sit on him. We're on the clock. You're on? Yeah. Jamie's on the clock in his dynasty league in his rookie draft. All right. So Lance Scott in

Phoenix, Arizona says, I have picks 1.2, 1.4, and 1.7 in a super flex tight end premium league. Daniel Jones is my only starting quarterback and Damian Harris and A.J. Dillon and James Cook are my running backs. So he needs help there.

I am thinking of taking Gibbs at two. I'm guessing Bijan will be one. The best quarterback at four. Is this the best strategy, or should I take Richardson and hope that Gibson is still there at four? Gibson. Yeah, am I...

Who's Gibson? Antonio Gibson. Taj? I don't know who he meant there. All right, but you've got... You need a quarterback and a running back desperately. He has picks two and four in a Superflex tight end premium league. I think he meant to say Gibbs. I hope Gibbs is still there at four.

And that's very possible in a Superflex league. Gibbs at four? Yeah, it's possible. So what are the needs of the manager at 1.03? I can't imagine Gibbs is getting past three at this point. I think it's going to be a pretty consensus top three of B. John, Richardson, and Gibbs. The only way it's going to happen is if that 1.03 manager, A, keeps the pick and doesn't trade it, and B, is good at running back and terrible at quarterback.

So you think he should take Gibbs at two and then take Bryce Young at four? I think he should take Gibbs at two and plan on getting Bryce Young at four. If you really want Richardson instead of Young, make an offer for 103. Okay, this is from Anthony. Hey, Clue, Yori, Sark, and Dr. Gibbs. That just feels Star Trek-y to me. Oh, it's Tron! Oh, it's Tron. Oh, it's Tron.

Yes. Very fast ride. I have a keeper question for you. I can keep two. Half PPR, three receiver league. All right, pick two, guys. Jamar Chase in round five. Yes.

Damian Pierce in round nine. George Pickens in round 10. Garrett Wilson in round 12. You know what? I'm going to take this for Dave and Jamie. Keep Chase in round 5 and Garrett Wilson in round 12. I was going to say Jalen Warren in round 16. Pacheco in round 14 is not bad, too.

But we're going to take Chase and Wilson. I heard that the Tron ride is rather uncomfortable. Oh, my gosh, dude. I'm glad you said that because I don't really know how to say this. It's extremely inappropriate, but yes, I was in some male discomfort. Yes.

Gotcha. It was, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, okay. My condolences. Yeah. Yeah, okay. My condolences. Yeah, it really was. I'm glad other people were saying that. I thought I did something wrong.

All right, grade this trade from someone whose name I don't know. Dave, give me a name and city. It's Rhonda from Portland, Oregon. All right, Rhonda would fare better on the Tron ride than I did. My current roster is below. I'm the defending champion. I'd like to keep contending now. I have the 105.

Oh, no. No, he's getting it. So he would give up 112, 205, and Chris Godwin, and he would get pick 105, a 2024 second round pick, which is probably late, Geno Smith and Alan Lazard. So you move up seven spots. You go from 112 to 105, but you give up 112, you give up 205, and you give up Chris Godwin for 105, a 2024 second round pick, Geno Smith and Alan Lazard. It's a one QB draft?

Yeah. He has Lamar Jackson. I think I like the Godwin side better. Okay. Yeah, I think you just stay put because, I mean, you're talking about, okay, it's the two running backs are gone, so you're not going to get one of those two guys. You might get Richardson.

You might get Richardson. But you're really giving up Godwin and the potential of, let's say, that's the range of Charbonnet, A-Chain, Kincaid, most likely.

What those guys could potentially become to get maybe Jordan Addison or Smith Najigba. If you really love those guys, then that's fine. But I think I would just keep Godwin and take my chances with 12. Okay. Thank you guys. Long show today. Sorry about that. To Dave and Jamie. I'm sure the listeners... And the last thing

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