Fantasy Football Today - Twelve Tips to Build Your Best Fantasy Roster (03/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 7, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts We welcome our old friend Ben Gretch back to the show as we all give advice on roster building. First, we've got news and notes (2:15) as Kirk Cousins might be on a new team next week, Zach Ertz is a Commander and Dalton Schultz signed an extension ... Ben starts with his tips for building a great roster (13:40). He talks about understanding volume volatility at running back, how to draft tight ends (24:55) and understanding where the value is at each position in drafts (34:35). We also discuss what to make of the 2023 season which was an outlier in many respects ... On to roster building tips from Dave (39:30), Jamey (47:40) and Adam (56:10). Dave, among other things, says "buy the dip" and wait on quarterback. Jamey agrees about QBs and has advice regarding rookie WRs. Adam talks about which positions are most affected by the team's offensive output and how you should use that information in your Fantasy drafts ... Your emails at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for?

Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline at 1-866-531-2600.

BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Bumble knows it's hard to start conversations. Hey. No, too basic. Hi there. Still no. What about hello, handsome?

Who knew you could give yourself the ick? That's why Bumble is changing how you start conversations. You can now make the first move or not. With opening moves, you simply choose a question to be automatically sent to your matches. Then sit back and let your matches start the chat. Download Bumble and try it for yourself. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play!

Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Happy Thursday, everybody. You know, we've got a big week next week. Free agency begins, and we're going to be reacting to all of the big news and all of the running backs that are changing teams or re-signing with their teams, whatever the case may be. And there's going to be some pretty big stuff.

So we're going to have our regular Monday show, but it's not going to be at 10 a.m. We're going to wait a little bit later in the day. We'll kind of do that throughout the week and just see how the news unfolds. So be flexible. So today, instead of, you know, getting into a topic like free agency or something, we're going to take a little more broad view here. Let's see how high my voice can go when I say that. And we're going to take a look at roster building

and give you some tips for building your best successful fantasy roster. And we're doing it with Dave Richard and Jamie Eisenberg. I'm Adam Azer, of course. And Ben Gretsch is coming on the show. Isn't that cool? Yes. Always cool., and Ben Gretsch is coming on the show. Isn't that cool? Nice. Always cool. I love Ben Gretsch.

He's great. He'll be on in a few minutes, actually, so we're going to knock out the news and notes beforehand, but we'll try to give you some tips, and I meant to go back and look at my tips from last year. They probably didn't work out because last year was totally weird. Everything that historically happened just didn't really happen last year. We'll get into that. But hopefully there's a lot of things that we can give you.

And Ben's got some fresh outside perspective as well. Dave and Jamie, what's up? How are you guys doing? Good? I'm great. Good. What's with everybody's voices? Did I miss the helium truck today?

What the hell? You may have missed something yesterday, but Thomas Schaefer had his best thumbnail by far yesterday. I forgot to give you credit for that, Schaefer. That was an awesome thumbnail. Please check it out on YouTube. Also, Ben Gretsch just told me that he's ready to go, but he doesn't have the link to the stream.

So that's on me. Let me go ahead and send that to him. News and notes. Atlanta reportedly interested in Kirk Cousins, Dave Richard. Seems like that could be happening. But does it seem fair to say right now that he's not going to be on the Vikings next year? Is that the buzz about Cousins?

I'm not ready to say that he definitively will not be on the Vikings I think that there's a pretty decent chance that he's not on the Vikings but Minnesota has time to up their offer if they so choose and bring him back it would be a little different to see him in Atlanta but obviously you'd feel a lot better about all the options in that offense if Kirk Cousins goes there and no question Arthur Blank wants to win. He's basically told his GM, get me a quarterback. I don't think they want to go the rookie route. I'm not sure if they even want to go the young veteran route.

I think they want to look at getting the best veteran who's established that they can. And Cousins is as good as it gets there. Money isn't the issue at all. He could be a falcon by the end of next week maybe minnesota's done with him could be maybe out of the combine there's so many coaches saying oh yeah we really want to get this guy back but you know they don't really mean it i don't know if that's well some do some don't well i think i think you know what what matters is is money.

Kirk Cousins may want the Brinks truck, and Minnesota might not think at 35, coming off an Achilles injury, that he's worth it. Here's another factor, and this is something that I was wrong about when we did our bonus pod on Russell Wilson. Russ has offsets in his contract. Remember when you were talking about, he doesn't need the money, Adam.

He can sign somewhere cheap. He's actually he might be inclined to sign somewhere cheap because then the Broncos have to pay him more. He could literally sign for the league minimum somewhere. If there's a team that's a little cash strapped and maybe they're okay giving Russell Wilson a shot. Again, he is an established veteran. I don't know if he's a good established veteran, but you're going to be able to get him for cheap. And maybe Minnesota looks at that situation and says, okay, well,

we could overpay for Kirk Cousins, or we could just go the cheap route and have Russell Wilson and hope that we can coax something out of him. That wasn't like what he did in Denver. We'll see what happens. Russ and a rookie would make some sense. You can't go into if you're competitive

thinking Russell Wilson's going to get you. Agreed, but the rookie doesn't have to be one of the top three rookies. You can get by with Russ and Penix or Russ and Bo Nix and say, okay, we've got a plan for now and we've got a plan for the future. How rude are you guys? Let me just introduce Ben already. He's

been on for 30 years. You brought him on while Dave was giving a very good answer. So that's bad on your part again. Hey, Ben. I don't want to make him wait. We do it. I was enjoying

the Russell Wilson conversation. I was getting a live seat at the show. I mean, it was beautiful. Yeah. We did a whole bonus episode on it. Yeah. So, right.

He can go anywhere. Dave said the Broncos would have to pay him more if he takes less. That just means that the money that they owe him, whatever someone else pays Russell Wilson comes out of what they owe him. Comes off of Denver's books.

It's not like his salary goes up, but whatever Denver owes would be affected. What's going on, Ben? And where are you on, Russ, as a guy in that area? I mean, well, uh what's going on and where are you on russ as a as a guy in that area uh i mean well seattle i he's been a lot of his time he uh i mean he's been pretty poor the last couple years i think i'm pretty out on him i get him as a bridge quarterback to me i mean yeah you can get him it's so cheap that you don't have to deal with the veteran cap hit.

I mean, it is a unique situation, right? Typically, we get the rookie quarterback and the surplus value you can generate from that. There's a potential for Russ to generate surplus value for the new team. I just don't know that he's good enough at this point anymore. It's kind of a concern for me. Yeah, right. We talked about him a little bit on beyond the box score i showed dave a clip of him on i think it was a fourth down and three from the 35 yard line uh he scrambled and he

picked up the first down if he keeps his eyes up for a tenth of a i swear a tenth of a second longer he hits jerry judy for a 35 yard touchdown judy's wide open i mean you're assuming judy catches the ball yeah there's a lot of that though with rus with Russell Wilson, I think, of him not seeing people, Ben. There's a lot of people that have shown that he was really good on like a per attempt basis. One of my favorite sort of bad faith arguments I've seen is how him and Mahomes stacked up on a per attempt basis. And it's the volume element of it is so key that the Chiefs kept dropping Mahomes back against these two deep shells with extra DBs on the field and asking him to beat past defenses. The Broncos were basically trying to hide Russ for most of the year, play the whole offense through the running backs, and then use them off play action. And in

situations that are higher efficiency passing situations, the volume is the difference, right? He was still efficient on a per play basis. I don't think at this point in his career, you can ask him to be the drop back guy that goes and wins you games in key spots. And when you're trailing late and those things, and that's what you need in a Superbowl caliber quarterback, at least. I want to give this very patient coach,

very patient coach. Sean Payton did not like Russell. I want to give this stat on Wilson again, as I mentioned it yesterday, but just to get your thoughts on it, right? Russell Wilson was 19th in pass attempts on the season, 19th overall in pass attempts, but he was 29th in pass attempts of, I just randomly

picked eight to 15 yards. So what you saw from him was almost, I mean, like I said, it's an exaggeration to say, but pretty much all he did was throw really short or really deep. And that's just weird, kind of hard to evaluate. But it also gives you some perspective. I think he was absolutely terrible for a guy like Jerry Judy and much better for a guy like Cortland Sutton and all the running backs. But that's just so unique to see a quarterback that just lived on receiver screens and running back screens and deep balls.

It's so much of that throughout the year. It probably shows he's a little bit afraid to throw into coverage. Or he's not asked to throw into coverage. Right. Because of what Ben said. They're hiding him. Or they were trying to hide him. Look at this comment.

Ben Goach. He's the GOAT. They love you. They love Ben Goach. Yes, Ben, for you newer listeners, was on our team for a while. And now he's one of our top guests. So we love having him. We tried to trade Adam for Ben to get him get him back but unfortunately the other side was not taking

they gave me it feels like it feels like just yesterday but i was telling adam i was kind of late here today because i'm going through something with my my daughter as a dave was telling me back i mean it's so many years ago it was coming the teenage years were coming so my daughter's about to turn 13 my oldest and she's in middle school. And so like this morning, I find out she has a special event and she has to go early to school today. And she had told me the other day what time she was going to go. And so it's like my whole morning schedule shifts.

And now I'm late for you guys. That's, you know, all the dads out there listening. No, that's the deal. When they hit middle school and they get that age. Yeah. Once you hit 12, it's all over. It gets worse. So you're there, Ben. Adam's got a long way to go.

Jamie, on the other hand, is oldest. Isn't he going to be 12 this year? In April, yeah. I remember ours was similar. Good run, Jamie. It was a good time. All right, let's get to the rest of the notes here.

The Cousins thing was the most important thing. There were several players who got the franchise tag, maybe the most interesting ones. LeJarius Sneed, because it seems like the Chiefs really might trade him, and we talked so much about him last season. Michael Pittman got the franchise tag. The wide receiver market looks like it's going to be Calvin Ridley, Marquise Brown, those will be the headliners.

And not saying that they won't be back with their teams, but we know Pittman's going to be on the Colts, pretty sure anyway. And Mike Evans back with Tampa Bay. Saquon Barkley reportedly wants to stay in New York. I think that means with the Giants. Jason Kelsey retired, not a surprise. Jamie, what'd you make of Dalton Schultz getting a three-year, $36 million contract with the Texans, resigning, and $23.5 million guaranteed?

Probably the best case scenario for him. Stay with a young, up-and-coming quarterback in an offense that's still very good. Keeping Slowik there as the offense coordinator, I think, is positive. Obviously, he's shown what he is on two different teams. A back-end fantasy, number one tight end. Somebody that you can take with a late-round pick and get good, if not great production. He was much better when somebody

was missing last year, whether it was Tank Dell or Nico Collins. But look, I think you just know what he is at this point. So staying with C.J. Stroud, staying in the Dolphins, I like it. The Dolphins are perhaps going to sign Jonu Smith, who set a career high in every receiving category last year

except for touchdowns. He had 50 catches, 582 yards, three touchdowns on 70 targets with Atlanta. The Commanders released Logan Thomas and signed Zach Ertz. Dave, does that do anything for fantasy? Zach Ertz to the Commanders? I don't know if I'm ready to say that Zach Ertz is draftable with a late

round pick i think you've just got to wait and see how things shake out in that washington offense and maybe get an idea of like how he looks in training camp it's like one of those things and who the commanders play in week one do you even like that matchup he looks more and more like the type of guy that someone in your draft will take because they recognize his name and then they'll hang on to him for too long other tight ends getting released will disley by seattle hayden hurst by carolina um and then there's a lot of defensive stuff i think the bills are having the most interesting week i guess with the big names that they released tradavious white and jordan poyer and also safety micah hyde as a free agent so it's a defense that

could look pretty different next year on the back end Eagles cutting Avante Maddox a cornerback Jaguars releasing safety Rayshawn Jenkins the Chargers releasing Eric Kendricks a linebacker who I think he had over 100 tackles he was the number 24 linebacker in our IDP

league Dolphins releasing linebacker Jerome Baker. The Bills signing Mitchell Trubisky, and the Patriots interested apparently in Jacoby Brissett. So next week is free agency week. I don't know how many episodes we'll have. It'll probably be more than three, but we won't start on Monday morning.

It'll start on Monday afternoon when we get some news coming in. And then we have fantasy baseball today is something that you need to know about here. Fantasy Baseball Season, it's about to start. Baseball Season kicks off pretty quickly. First pitch, pretty quickly. So get on Fantasy Baseball Today. Listen to that awesome podcast.

It's an award-winning podcast. Also, Fantasy Baseball Today in five. Subscribe to those, and you can watch it on youtube.com slash fantasybaseballtoday. You like that i uh signed us up for our baseball league again without asking you no i didn't accept i didn't accept you have a choice i yeah i don't really want to be in that league anymore but jamie's like adam and i are in i mean jamie does most of the work although i would say i do most of i know that i

know that how that goes it's actually good it's good yeah no yeah i i do most of the... I know how that goes. It's actually good. It's good. Yeah, I know. Yeah. I do most of the drafting, I think, though. And then Jamie does the in-season work. Yeah, but when you draft, you're like, I think this guy's good. And then you give me a reason. And then I go and do some research, and it doesn't really add up. And then you bully me into taking the guy, and then we drop him through.

No, that's so not true. You could give me one example of that. All right. Anyway, let's get to our topic. And it's tips for building whatever you want to call it, the perfect fantasy roster, a good fantasy roster. And I'm going to let Ben go first. And I'm going to let you give all three, and then we'll talk about them.

Give me the three tips to building your ideal fantasy roster. Well, the first one is to understand the volatility of running back volume. I used to talk about this a lot when we would talk about the running back dead zone, about zero RB, some of those concepts. I thought 2023 was a really great year for this idea. There's a lot of different ways that running back volume didn't pan out the way that we tried to project it's really hard to project over a full season you had the injuries with like nick chubb and jk dobbins you had expected workhorses just not really being the workhorses which started early with like a naji harris a lot of people thought would definitely be the workhorse instead kind of in a split from early on mid-season we saw some guys just lose their

work like a damian pierce loses work to devon singletary it took a little later in minnesota but eventually ty chandler kind of just takes over for alexander madison we saw it in multiple stages throughout the year that's one of the reasons it's so hard to project at what point is it going to happen it's going to happen week two week eight week 15 um so a variety of different ways that we saw running backs not get the work that we were trying to project. The last one I would point out is Kyron Williams, where we just didn't have the starter, right? The week one starter, we, you know, we kind of thought was going to be cam acres.

It was basically, you know, they wanted Kyron from the early part of the year. That was a tough thing to get right. Not many people had that. He was obviously a very late round pick. They're trading cam acres a couple of weeks later. So that volatility of running back volume, i think really impacts the way that you want to build your roster i try as a sort of a rule even if i take early running backs i try not to take too many of them early i think you're just stacking risk when you do that the second thing is recognize

the value that an elite tight end can provide a little bit of a lower replacement level i also think you know we talk about replacement levels like the last viable starter but i think there's a bigger gap to like tight end five than at other positions just have to go back to 2022 to look at when kelsey had about i think it was over 100 more ppr points than any other tight end those elite tight ends can provide a really huge advantage in any format and i think that we're kind of heading into a new era for young stars that position it's a really interesting thing to consider for 2024 and going and beyond. And then my third thing is understanding where in drafts, you can get various things for your build. So this is another thing that I think comes from running back when we look back and think about, okay, well, you know,

how good were the best running backs, I think one of the things we can miss is a lot of those guys came from later in the draft or different areas. And so when you think about building a draft strategy, you want to think about where was I actually able to pick these types of players in the past? And so for me, that's often meant, look, the best receivers typically come in the early rounds. The better running backs can come, well, kind of from everywhere, typically from the very early rounds, the real elites. But you can get a Kyron Williams to have a great year. You can get a Raheem Mostert to score 21 touchdowns in the late rounds. Kind of stuff happens at running back when guys have surprisingly large roles because it is such

a volume dependent position. So when you think through the ways that you want to layer the different positions throughout your draft, you want to think about where historically the value has actually come from. Okay, great stuff here. Understand running back volume, volatility. I have one that's pretty similar. Recognize the value that an elite tight end can provide. I will ask you, you know, is that done now with Kelsey at the back end of his career and the tight end position being deeper last year than it was?

We'll talk about that. And understanding where in drafts you can get various things for your build. I do have to take a break. We'll take a quick break, come back and dissect these three tips from Ben Gretsch right after this. like that. How about dinner with my third cousin? Skip it. Prince Fluffy's favorite treats? Skippable. Midnight snacks? Skip. My neighbor's nightly saxophone practices? Nope, you're on your own there. Could have skipped it? Should have skipped it. Skip to the good part and get groceries, meals, and more delivered right to your door on Skip. peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life.

All right, so one of the tips that I had, Ben, was if the only thing you like about a running back is his workload, and then I put, then you might want a different running back. But I amended it to say that running back should not be drafted in the first four or maybe even five rounds. Because I think, you know, look, I have to admit, I was wrong. Rashad White proved me wrong. And Kyron Williams is not the kind of guy that, even if you told me going into the year, I would have expected, you know, like, I didn't think he would be that good. So you at least have to allow them the chance to be good.

But, you know, then you talk about, like about Najee Harris in 2022 was a first-round pick and Montre Stevenson last year and who else? Alexander Madison, I would say even Cam Akers. So at what point do you not really care about the volatility in running back volume and you're willing to take a risk? How do we, in other words, how do we take the successes of Rashad White and Kyron Williams and Joe Mixon, he's not exactly efficient, and James Conner and the failures of Alexander Madison and Cam Akers and in the past, Mike Davis and Miles Gaskin and this past year,

maybe somewhat Ramondre Stevenson. How do you mix those and come up with a good strategy? For me, the lesson there is that it's tough to predict. I mean, it's really tough to predict in August. One of the things that I've taken to saying is you can't even plan your week 17 running backs for your fantasy championship in week one or in week two. You have to understand, I think in fantasy and all walks, in fantasy baseball, we're trying to find that guy to lock into our lineup slot. And it makes a lot more sense at

wide receiver at quarterback, a tight end where you're building your team. I think you can lock in sometimes a guy in week one or week two and be like, this is my quarterback all year. I mean, I already know this guy's a hit or my tight end or my wide receiver one wide receiver two, maybe not further down. If you're playing a three receiver league, maybe you have to be flexible in that wide receiver three spot. But I think at running back, outside of like a Christian McCaffrey, that was basically the lesson this year. If you had a running back early, you couldn't necessarily count on him being your running back late. You needed to be flexible. Think of it like a running back slot in your lineup. I'm going to be playing different guys throughout the year. And so I think the lesson

from what you're saying is, yeah, there were were some hits there were some misses at a lot of different areas of the draft and that means it's kind of tough to to predict and so in terms of building a draft i don't want to be overweight running backs i want to i want to do it as cheaply as possible if i can do it in the later rounds i could potentially build a team that i mean some of the best teams like if you look at the big best ball contests are the ones that hit with Raheem Oster and Kyron Williams late. Because then what they were able to do in the early rounds at all the other positions along with that, you name some great ones in the late single-digit rounds. David Montgomery is another one we knew would have a role, but not enough touches to go super high. And he was good.

James Cook, there were several that you could get in round six, round seven, round eight, where the opportunity cost becomes less. And I think that's the key, the opportunity cost. You start to get to those late single digits, especially in the double digits. It's a lot easier to pick the more volatile position. Well, it's why Hero RB works. You take one chance early on someone that you're hopefully very confident in and that doesn't have the same amount of red flags,

whether there's a track record or a great situation or a great offense that, you know, you're just looking at and saying, okay, I'm really trust that this is going to work out barring injury. And then you just wait and just load up at every other position. And it's, it's the spirit behind zero RB as well. And this is the direction that we've been going in for fantasy oh god it's got to be a decade now but the nfl is really kicking into high gear how many running backs are out there where you look at me and you say okay that guy let's go a little higher than 15 touches per game maybe 17 touches per game i i don't think there are going to be that many it might be down to single digits across the league.

And so that means that teams aren't investing. Their opportunity costs in running backs isn't a high price for salaries, for example. Maybe the Lions are an exception to that rule because they signed David Montgomery and then they drafted Jameer Gibbs. But a lot of teams, man, they'll piecemeal their running backs. The 49ers, before they had Christian McCaffrey, man, they were doing that for the longest under Kyle Shanahan. And so if the teams are doing it and they're trying to get two running backs every week, kind of doing what the Dolphins want to do, two running backs every week that they can lean on at whatever cost that it is, then fantasy managers maybe should kind of shift with them.

And so if you're going to draft one or no running backs with your first three or four picks, and then you just load up and you take all these other running backs that are in that 10 to 15 touch per game range, you just have to find two every week that can help you out. You'll play the matchups, you'll see who's healthy, and you'll play the waiver wire as well and get guys off the waiver wire that can help you out. It's a commitment to paying attention to your league every single week and being on that hunt for those running backs. But it's almost worth it because the top wide receivers have outperformed the top running backs. The top tight ends, you heard Ben talk about it, when you've got those guys and you lock them in the lineups, you can feel good about starting them every single week. Same thing with the quarterbacks. And it just makes sense to kind of downgrade that running back position, especially after those elite-tier running backs are gone.

Okay, and then I just need to point this out, though. I don't know that we should base everything on last year's. Last year was such a bad year for elite running backs because I have it in front of me now. How many top 12 running backs were drafted in rounds one or two for the past over the past eight years and going into last season, we had six straight seasons where seven to nine of the top 12 running backs, just total points PPR were drafted in rounds one and two.

So seven to nine last year, it was maybe four. It was McCaffrey and then ETN was like his ADP was right around 24. Derek Henry was like 20th and Bijan Robinson. They were the only four who were drafted in the first two rounds that finished top 12.

So I guess I just wonder, you know, are we going to, I agree with everything we've said, right? I mean, like, don't, I hate going running back, running back, even when I like it on paper, it never works out. Talked about that a couple of weeks ago or something, but just want to point out last year was unusually bad for the elite running backs. First off,

we'll find out next week what a lot of NFL teams think about some of these running backs. Cause there's, you know, five guys that are's five guys that are somewhat – four certainly very heavy hitters. And Tony Pollard, you want to throw him in there with Eckler, Henry, Jacobs, and Barkley of what they've done in the last five years or so. And if there's significant investment made to any of these guys, then that sort of says that maybe that team is still looking at them, to Dave's point about maybe still giving them 17 to 20 touches per game, because why would you pay that guy if you're not going to use that guy? Now, obviously, you take into account age for somebody like Henry and Eckler, and maybe some wear and tear injury issues for somebody like Barkley,

Pollard's inexperience, you know, so there's a lot of things you can look at. But that's where I think the smart fantasy player looks at and says, OK, I don't care about that. I don't care that that player has gotten paid and is going to get, quote unquote, that usage. I'm still not taking that type of risk. I'd rather take the again, the the situation that you trust a little bit more and let somebody else overpay for that particular running back. And you're getting maybe the better values later in your draft. All right, let's go to Ben's second tip here, which is recognize the value that an elite tight end can provide. And do you, you know, how do you,

how do you feel about that strategy now with, it seems like a changing tight end landscape. Yeah. I mean, I think that's the key here is we can look at past trends for all these positions and use them to a certain degree tight ends a position where at any given time over the last 10 years there's maybe been one or two that have been like consistently good you have a couple guys like a darren waller pop up for a couple years of really strong play but think about kelsey you think about

kiddly about urts i mean there's not a ton more over the last decade that were consistently good and we are at a stage right now over the multiple year trend of of the tight end position where those guys are aging out a little bit i don't think kiddled necessarily is but it does seem like kelsey is uh i heard that andy reed sort of acknowledged they were limiting his snaps a little bit in the regular season to keep an eye on the postseason which which makes sense. They expect to play, you know, three, four postseason games every year. So 17 game seasons now, which is something we should add to the running back discussion as well. It's changed the way that teams are looking at how heavily they want to lean on these guys, especially some of these veterans. And it's even impacting a

veteran tight end like a Kelsey in terms of how many snaps and routes he is expected to run and so you have that starting to kind of fade out I'm not saying Kelsey's you see he should still be in the top five maybe the top two but I think it's a really interesting time at the position because I do think somebody or a couple of these other guys are going to be superstars it looks like we have that next wave in a way that it's been a little bit less clear at running back. That's another one of the issues in the multi-year landscape right now is we had a lot of the young running backs over the last five years getting serious injuries and things like that.

They haven't hit in huge ways. Tight end, they've been hitting, right? Sam Laporta was incredible last year. Sometimes at tight end it takes a little longer. Trey McBride takes a couple years, but he was fantastic last season. TJ Hawkinson finally hits a little bit later into his career, tears his ACL, but I do feel good once he's back to full health that he's going to be good.

I think Cole Komet is one of the biggest under-the-radar stories of last year because of the Justin Fields volume issues. You look at some of his per-route run stuff, targets per-route run, all of that. He started to look like somebody who developed. He was 21 year old rookie a few years back another young tight end we expect them to take a couple years to develop he's a guy that should have a lot more pass volume in his offense and some of the peripherals look good for him good prospect out of Notre Dame as well I think there's a lot of guys even like a Michael Mayer I think we're

in for like a new you know wave of tight ends this year and next year and the year after. Even like a Kyle Pitts, obviously, if the Kirk Cousins does go to Atlanta or those types of things, still a little bit in on him. So there's a lot of guys, I think, that will define the next era of tight end. That doesn't necessarily mean you have to pay huge draft capital because some of those guys are cheaper. And it is, again, it's not the prediction part of fantasy football is not always easy that's why i always talk about these like theory concepts and how can we try to tilt the scales for the predictions we're trying to make tight end right now we don't know who's going to be the next star it's a little more up in the air and so i think you can take some stabs at some of the ones that people are already really

buying into early drafts people are buying into sam laporta example. I do think he's going to be a star. I think you can also take some shots on the Kyle Pitts' later. Maybe he's a bounce-back candidate. But I do think going forward, it's an important thing to recognize where if you look at the scoring at tight end every year, maybe the tight end one and the tight end five, maybe a bigger gap than a lot of other positions where it's not just the gap that it gives you every week

over the last place tight end in the starting lineup in your league, you know, the tight end 12. It's the average team you're getting a huge gap on when you have the prime Kelsey, like the 2022 Kelsey. I mean, some weeks you're gaining 10, 15 points per week, just at the tight end position, sometimes even more. I mean, he has 30 point upside other guys are scoring 10 and and so that can just win you your week i mean it can be a monster um advantage obviously depending and it's not always going to work out perfectly but i love having an elite tight end i love the advantage it can provide me on a weekly level over six to eight of my opponents in my league in a way

that it's tough to have that big of a positional advantage at any of the other positions so drafting the position that was going to be very interesting right yeah you know it's it's like you said and i agree with a lot of what you said um you know how early do you pull the trigger on laporta you know how much do you trust let's say mcbride with some additional weapons in arizona assuming they go that route which makes a lot of sense you know does kelsey still provide you the same advantage, which I think based on last year, it's hard to say yes. You know, you just expect him to just still be very good, just not the same elite type of guy.

And so that's where it's going to be very, very fun to see, you know, because I think everybody agrees they would love to have that. And that's why we take stabs at George Kittle year after year, and his points per game are always good, but sometimes he misses too much time, you know, and we take stabs at george kittle year after year and his points per game are always good but sometimes he misses too much time you know and and we take chances on kyle pitts and we you know swing for the fences on somebody like that and he and he lets us down you know so adam talks about this all the time with that that second tier of guys you know we're we're usually pretty good when they're healthy on you know the last couple of seasons you know kelsey and andrews

and what they've been able to produce. And then it's usually, okay, what happens, what happens after that? And we, we whiff on OJ Howard. So, you know, I, I, I, I love the idea of, you know, what we've said the last couple of seasons, great or late, you know, so if you can't get one of those guys, you take some swings on, on players that look like they're going to be in good spots. Cole Komet this year is going to be one of my favorites as well. Jake Ferguson and Dalton Schultz, you know, guys that aren't elite. But, okay, you know what you're getting.

But they're not going to kill you. But, yeah, I mean, you'd love to have the elite level guys. And, you know, somebody like Evan Ingram, for example, 100 catches, hard to overlook, you know, what he was able to do last year. Njoku, when Joe Flacco was healthy, what he was able to do. So those guys that became elite based on certain situations. Alright, so Ben, let me just wrap it up with this. Would you rather draft

Laporta or Kelsey? You have many options. You could take Laporta or Kelsey in round 3. You could take Andrews or McBride in round 4, maybe like let's say late round 4. Or you McBride in round four, maybe like, let's say, late round four. Or you can take Pitts in round six or just wait for like Mayer or Musgrave or somebody like that with one of your last picks. Well, that's part of why I do so many different leagues and different drafts because I want to explore all those options in different leagues.

I'll say my favorite of those right now is the Andrews or McBride around four ish. I think that's when you start to lose the elite value with the other positions, but I McBride probably right now, my tight end one overall, he was that good in terms of per outrun stuff. And some of the efficiency,

they're going to probably add a Marvin Harrison, but I think a rookie receiver helps in terms of drawing attention away, but maybe doesn't hurt the target volume in an extreme way. I think I just love where McBride's set up for next year. Better quarterback play, probably. So I think, and then Andrews is a star. I think that, out of those options, that would be the range I'd probably like the most.

Okay. Let's take one more break here. We'll come back. We'll get Ben's last tip. We'll get more from Dave and Jamie. And we have some emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. I should give out the email address more. If you want to send us a question, do that. And that's the letter I, by the way.

fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We'll be right back. Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert, as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals, be careful along our tracks, and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year.

Don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks. Before you break ground, make it a point to request a locate. It's not just the law. It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Okay, Ben, explain this last one to us. Understanding where in drafts that you can get various positions for your build.

Yeah, I mean, I think, again, everything does seem to revolve around running back. That's why all of our draft strategies are named after running backs, right? Like does seem to revolve around running back that's why we all of our draft strategies are named after running backs right like what did you do at running back zero rb hero rb anchor rb did you hit rbs in the dead zone it's all about the rbs i think the best way to talk about this is the running back position it really is just saying like look you could get a 21 touchdown running back and raheem mostard in round 15 last year you could get kyron williams a lot these off-wafers after week one. These guys were stars.

They were not just good early. They were good late. They were incredible. The fact that you're able to find those types of plays at running back, and Adam, I completely agree with your point earlier that 2023 was a unique season, a very good season to make these points. It doesn't mean it's going to be that way every year. I do think it's important to recognize that it's possible to go this way.

Right. And so the running back position is a key one where I think you can get such dominant production late. You can get viable quarterbacks late. You can get viable tight ends late. That's why we talk about late round quarterback, late round tight end, but typically they don't,

they don't provide the monster advantage that uh like a travis kelsey in 2022 provided or the elite quarterbacks usually the late round quarterbacks it's like okay well they pretty much matched most of them but not the the breakaway superstar you know a lot of times there's one or two breakaway superstar quarterbacks those are often the earlier quarterbacks or at least lately you go back to obviously rookie year lamar jackson second year Lamar Jackson, second year Mahomes. When those guys were coming on, they were late round picks that broke the game. But more recently, our quarterback landscape is we know who the elites are, so to speak. And so it's about, OK, where in the drafts can I get the real upside, the real production?

And then wide receiver is the other position that, I mean, if you look at it year over year, Pukunokua, great counterexample from last year. There's no absolutes in fantasy anywhere. Last year, he was a late round guy who finished his top five in basically every scoring format. But if you look over the years, top five, top 10, it's typically guys that were drafted at wide receiver. Typically guys that were drafted, maybe not in the first two rounds, but at least in the first 10, right? It's not round 15, round 20, like most are like Kyron Williams last year. So it's understanding where the pockets of value over multiple years come from the different positions.

And then also adjusting, like we were just talking about with tight end, the positions change, Adjust for the 2024 landscape. But when you understand those concepts, you can then apply them to what you expect and are projecting forward for the positions in 2024 and beyond. And I think that really helps you build out what kind of draft strategy you want to consider for that year. So I haven't updated these stats, but in the previous five seasons, so 2018 through 22, there were only 12 wide receivers total that finished in the top 12 and were drafted in round

seven or later. It was pretty rare to find wide receivers who finished top 12 drafted after the first 72 picks of the draft. Is that top 12 on a per-game basis? No, overall.

Total. Overall. You had guys like Debo Samuel that one year where he had all those rushing yards and had a great season. I think Jamar Chase was also in that year as a rookie. Yeah. There might have been two guys last year that did that, and that's Puka and Nico Collins.

Non-top round seven wide receivers that finished top 12 in total points scored. Right. So the top 12 were Lamb, Hill, St. Brown, Puka, A.J. Brown, D.J. Moore, who's kind of late for a top 12 guy, Keenan Allen, Stefan Diggs, Devontae Adams, Jamar Chase, collins was 12th so yeah it's the logic for why that happens it follows if we think about it like receivers can't lose their volume which for me is routes run they can't lose that because you need three receivers out there there's not teams that are five deep that can bench a receiver and bring out i mean like remember a

couple years ago deontay johnson had those drops issues they benched him for like half a game and then they're like well our only other option is to play like Ray-Ray McLeod. Like, you know, at running back, it's different. You can get benched for the guy behind you and lose all of your work. You don't lose your work at receiver. And then the second part of it is it's way more of a skill-based position in terms of you have to earn the targets. You have to get open. You have to draw volume as opposed to running back where the handoffs are sort of just doled out. They're just kind of given. And so you, it makes sense that

it's the position where the skill and our ability to analyze the skill is going to have more of an impact on who actually does well, or we're going to be better at it. All right. And I love, I love the way you kind of frame it as everything revolves around running back. And it's so true. So we got some good tips here about the volatility at running back and much more volatile than at wide receiver in terms of volume and things like that. And yeah, basically if you come out of your draft with like three running backs in your first four picks, you probably did not do it right. Anyway, let's go to Dave and Jamie. Now, Dave, give me three tips for roster building. So the first one is buying the dip players who are on sale, even if they're not the ideal type of player you'd want,

go and get them because they're going to come at a discount on draft day. Who were some of those players last year? Look no further than Brees Hall, who we were drafting in rounds four and five. He ended up having a pretty good year. Alvin Kamara, Mike Evans, Michael Pittman in PPR leagues, Jonathan Taylor, Dak Prescott, we were getting late. Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin, Tua Tungavailoa, throwing Jerry Judy as someone that we were taking at a discounted ADP. He didn't work out, but you get the idea behind it. There's something that happens to these players, whether it's perceived or whether it's an actual situation like an injury or somebody else coming in.

Baker Mayfield going to Tampa Bay is an example that makes you want to be skittish about some players. Two years ago, it was the Seattle receivers because Russell Wilson was gone. Geno Smith came in. But those were good players to buy at the dip then. I just listed off a bunch of players that were good to buy at the dip last year. Who are going to be those players this year? I kind of have a list. You guys can tell me if you think that there's going to be a dip with them.

There's been a dip so far in our mock drafts based on the ADP that we've had. Derek Henry, Nick Chubb, Austin Eckler, Joe Mixon. Anything those guys have in common? What about Tony Pollard? Are people going to be shy to take him? Joe Burrow, Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin again, TJ Hawkinson. I know there's a guy on this show who's ready to pass on TJ Hawkinson unless it's very late. Kyle Pitts, I just added him to this list. There's going to be at least two fantasy managers in every single league that had Kyle

Pitts and will be scared to death to take him again unless it's super late Dallas Goddard could be added to that list when you can get a good player at a discount yeah they're going to be flawed there's going to be some warts but you take advantage of that that's my first tip my second tip is to and this is just something that I think this is trying to get ahead of the curve on something I expect scorching demand for the rookie wide receivers coming in. I think Marvin Harrison, assume he's on any team other than the Patriots, I bet he'll be a top 40 pick in every single draft. Maybe not two quarterback leagues.

Malik Nabors and Romo Dunze, they're going to go early too. They're going to be popular. There's going to be a lot of other rookie wide receivers. Someone's going to draft Xavier Worthy in every league just because of what he did at the combine. And then they're going to yell in their draft room, 4.21, and then they're going to think that they're getting themselves a steal. And maybe they are.

I hope that's not when they drafted him, round 4.2. I don't think he's going in round four with the 21st pick in round four. But you're catching my point. No, what's your tip here, to be aggressive with these guys? The tip here is, I don't know if you necessarily want to overdraft these rookie wide receivers, but because there's going to be, I don't know, a dozen of them that are going to get drafted in every single league, it's going to push down other wide receivers.

And maybe this goes hand-in-hand with buying the dip. Maybe there's a dip there. But I think you're going to see wide receivers be more available maybe a round later than we're used to seeing. So what we just get done talking about, how round seven or round 10, somewhere in there is the cutoff to getting a starting caliber fantasy wide receiver guy that you can feel good about putting in your lineup on draft day.

I think you can wait another round later. It's something that I was kind of toying with in my last mock draft. It's why I went so gaga over running backs early on. And as it turned out, I really was left holding the bag at wide receivers. But I bet if we did that draft again a month from now or two months from now, when's the draft laid out? April. If we did that draft again in May, I'd be able to find wide receivers later on and not have to settle on taking so many running backs. So expect some wide receivers to kind of alter the landscape of how we take these guys. Ben would have been physically ill at your draft from the last month. Oh yeah, it was terrible. I hated it myself. And like the more and more I think about it, I think I'm going to force myself, Jamie, to start not taking running backs until like i was gonna say when you went when you went on your

rant about how for the last 10 years we've been conditioned to not trap running back i know i know but like there was literally no one else that i liked at that spot ben what happened in our last mock draft i took two running backs with my first two picks two older wide receivers with my next two picks and then jamie stole one of the receivers i would have been happy to have as my wide receiver three and all that was left was like decent running backs like joe mixon and james connor were talking five six turn and so first of all i was like screw it it's a mock draft i don't really care i took them i i couldn't be more disappointed in myself after that. Like I've made parenting decisions that aren't as bad as taking four running backs with my first six picks. All right. I got one more tip to give you. I feel like this is a good time to pivot back toward

waiting on a quarterback on purpose. Whereas last year I was more in the camp of get a quarterback at a fair value. Now I feel like if you reach for a quarterback, you lose. Remember that line that I used to give Adam, where if you reach, you lose? I think we're back to that point now. Not saying that quarterback production is going to stay where it was in 2023. I think a lot of quarterbacks are going to bounce back and they're going to be fine. But it's going to be more than just the top guys, more than just Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts. I think we're going to see other quarterbacks start to perform better than they did last year and more quality quarterbacks that are on the

board this year. Jordan Love, CJ Stroud making that jump up. Anthony Richardson still might be regarded as a top 12 quarterback. Justin Fields might still be regarded as a top 12 quarterback. So I don't want to reach for a quarterback ever. And this means not only not taking one in round one or round two in one QB redraft, I'm thinking even round three might be a little too early to take Josh Allen at this point. I'd rather go and load up at two or three wide receivers and maybe one running back before I go and take a quarterback. I know I'm going to be able to find a good quarterback late. It doesn't have to be somebody that I'll settle for and say, all right, this guy will

give me 20 points a week. No, it can be a quarterback that might be able to get you between 22 and 25 points per week. Okay. Dave's tips by the dip. I am, I am a French onion dip guy, by the way. But a little guac. I have some delicious guac in the fridge. I'm going to make some tacos tonight.

Buy the dip. Don't overdraft the rookie wide receivers, or at least allow the veterans to become good values and wait on quarterback. And the three names that came to mind for me, Dave, when you said buy the dip, these three guys might go back to back to back. Jalen Waddell, T. Higgins, Devontae Smith.

Those are three guys I want to buy the dip on. Excellent calls, with the exception being that I think there's still enough positive perception about all three of those guys where fantasy managers won't be able to find them half a round later in their drafts than what the ADP says. Oh, they're going maybe a round later than where they were a year ago.

I think that's what Adam's point is. Okay, and that's fair to say. It's based on perception. And a couple guys we named, I think, actually the reverse may happen after free agency. Like you said, Tony Pollard, I think if he signs as a featured guy, stays in Dallas as he's saying he'd take less money to do, he's not going to fall.

He's going to stay. You think he'll be a second rounder? No, but I know you're going based on our drafts and he was falling in our drafts because people are just worried that he's going to end up somewhere where he's not a feature guy if he ends up as a starting running back in dallas especially after he was the number one rated running back by pff uh after week 11 you know you're going to hear that stat ad nauseum um he'll get pushed up back to a point where you know he's not going to fall on drafts joe burrow i don't think he's going to fall in drafts you know, you're going to hear that ad nauseum. He'll get pushed up back to a point where, you know, he's not going to fall on drafts.

Joe Burrow, I don't think is going to fall in drafts. You know, again, based on where he was last year, yes. But I don't think those guys in particular, those stood out to me. I don't think people are running away from them. Burrow will be interesting because I think at the highest, he's going to be, what, QB5? Yeah. Yeah, at the highest, yeah.

All right, but I think there are going to be some drafts where he's like QB eight, which has happened in our drafts. All right, Jamie, what do you got for your three tips? Well, they've said one and sort of half of one. The quarterback for me is again, something I live by. So I'm not getting away from that.

Just the ones that I know I'll be targeting. Anthony Richardson will be at the top end of it because I think he'll be somewhere as high as QB six, but I think he'll fall a little bit. So he'll be the first one that I probably will quote unquote reach for. But Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, maybe CJ Stroud, if he falls in this range, still Brock Purdy, you know, and I think Justin Herbert falls in this range too. You know, while they may have, you know, certainly some warts and some flaws based on the value. And I think what they'll be able to produce. And you still could get two of them if you want to, depending on how deep of a bench you have or the type of league you play in.

There's still plenty of upside as we saw from these guys. So waiting on a quarterback is easy for me. The other one, in terms of what Dave said about the rookie wide receivers, it's just taking chances on the guys, not the top 10 guys. It's more of the next group of guys, because think about it, you know, not just Puka, but Tank Dell, Rashi Rice, you know, these were guys that were very late round picks based on redraft leagues and finding just the right opportunities. And it's not just guys like that. It's taking chances on like, like a Josh Downs, for example, or DeMario Douglas, you know, these types of rookies that are going to be in opportunities that they may not succeed, but instead of taking, you know, the older the older, like a Zay Jones, for example,

who had some hype coming off last year even with the addition of Calvin Ridley, people are still drafting him with the idea of Trevor Lawrence taking a step forward. Players like that. Avoid those type of guys. Take some dart throws at some of these next-tier rookie wide receivers because as we're seeing, as college games are developing and these players are coming to the league much more prepared to play than ever before, you're seeing some of these guys not necessarily get the hype but still producing at a high level and there'll be some guys you know the kid from florida state for

example he may fall because of his 40 time colman you know ends up in in a great spot you know uh for for fantasy he's probably a bad example because he does have some some name recognition but you get the point you know some of these uh second tier rookies that may not get drafted a lot of fantasy leagues. So just, again, attach some names to it. A.T. Perry and Trey Turner and some of these guys. Not second-year receivers. I'm saying what they were as rookies.

Just opportunities to maybe be contributors. They're going to be players you probably end up cutting anyway. So just take a chance on guys with upside. So those would be two for me. And then when you sent the email about this, this was easy for me, you know, avoiding older players. You know, I'll continue to be an ageist. It worked out well at wide receiver this year in terms of the broad picture,

obviously missing on Keenan Allen and Mike Evans. Those guys were great. Adam Thielen, I kind of put in a different category because he was a late round pick, but avoiding Cooper Cup, avoiding DeAndre Hopkins, avoiding these older wide receivers that failed. And as I said to you on a previous show, I probably will not take one aside from Tyree Kill in the first three rounds.

So I won't take Stephon Diggs. I won't take Devontae Adams. I won't take those guys. Somebody else can have them. I get it. It's just a byproduct of how I look at the position, look at these players running back as well. Clearly, I think that's easy for everybody, mostly that pays attention to it.

So Derek Henry, Austin Eckler, those type of guys, they won't be on my team. But older wide receivers, for me, I'm just out on for the most part. Are you drafting Travis Kelsey? Yeah, like I said, it's mostly wide receiver. Running back, I think, is just kind of tried and true at this point. Okay, I just want to know if it went to tight end, too. Yeah, yeah. No, tight end is fine, especially for him.

You have to make exceptions. You can't just paint everything with a broad stroke. I think Ben's, you know, said that very well earlier that you just can't go year over year and just say everything's, you know, sort of fits into a box. But for me, in terms of just these older wide receivers, you know, it's losing a step. And again, it's not just always them. I think Devontae Adams is still a great player. And he just had, you know, crappy quarterback play last year.

DeAndre Hopkins had crappy quarterback play last year. But, and, you know, your point, Dave, about Baker Mayfield, you know, we were scared that he was going to be terrible for Mike Evans. He was great. You know, so, again, not every situation is exactly, you know, going to be, you know, repeatable year over year. But just for me, I'm out on those type of players. I just think that you see the step is lost and you're having to pay a premium price for what they have done as opposed to what they will do. So let me ask all of you here, because here's the issue I have with Stefan Diggs. I get it. He's getting older or whatever, but he's still on what I think will be a great offense, right? I mean, I think we all can agree with that as long as he's on the bills.

And then the bigger issue is let's look at the 12 players who went after Stefan Diggs in our most recent draft. He went 24th overall. And I'll just say the name and you guys can tell me if you'd rather have this guy or Stefan Diggs. I just feel like a lot of these guys are like, oh, I don't love Diggs, but do I really want this guy over him? Okay, here we go. So would you rather have Stefan Diggs or Travis Kelsey? Kelsey.

Kelsey. I think I'd rather have Kelsey. Stefan Diggs or Keenan Allen neither I think I think I'd put Diggs ahead of Allen I think I'm taking Allen okay Jamie's just gonna it's close Jamie's just gonna wait till next he's just gonna skip his third round pick uh Stefan Diggs or Sam Laporta? Laporta. Laporta. I think I have Laporta higher. I think it's going to get a little harder here.

This is a full PPR league. Stefan. This is already not easy. I know, right? Stefan Diggs or Cooper Cup? Oh, sorry. Uh,

Tank Dell. Tank Dell is next. Dell. I took Dell. I would take Dell. I think I would take Diggs. I'm a little concerned about Dell's size. I mean,

the fact that the way that he got rolled up on was really fluky, but I'm a little concerned about his ability to hold up. That's true. Dikembe Mutombo, Stephon Diggs is actually much bigger. That's a good one. Cooper Cup. That's Diggs. Diggs.

Debo Samuel. Deiggs. Debo Samuel. Debo. Debo. Really? In a PBR league? How many catches did Debo Samuel have last year? Let's see. He had 60 catches in 15 games.

Like, Diggs could have 100 catches. All right. Rashad White. Diggs. Diggs. I think I'd say Diggs. He's like right in that late round three range i don't well i don't know if white white might be in that same range too jaylen waddle uh jaylen waddle brandon iuk mike evans i'm taking on iuk yeah yeah you'll take the younger guys ahead of digs

i'm taking digs over evans i think even though I think, even though Evans is so good every year. So he finds a way to be consistent, but you don't want to fall into that trap either, right? Isn't that putting a guy in a box? I mean, I'll say it every time with Mike Evans about what his pass has been, but you just, I mean. That's what makes him so. Of a fall off. Right. I know what you're about to say.

That's what makes him so, like, easy. i know what you're about to say that's what makes him so like unique yeah yeah and that too but i mean i i love jamie's last point there when he was giving us three big points because i mean we joke about nfl not for long league but like it really is true like the the peaks of players you go look at it there are so few that do what mike evans has done i mean it's three years of a peak for a lot of guys, and then they're just never really the same. It's hard to be that consistently great in the NFL. The other flip side to it all, too, is that, is there something we didn't know about Diggs? Because he was pretty good before they changed offensive coordinators.

Yeah, right. And then once they changed offensive coordinators, it looked like he aged seven years. Well, it's Josh Allen's numbers weren't nearly as good. Right, he wasn't throwing quite as much. As I've said many times, this is exactly what happened at the end of the 2021 season, and Diggs came back with a huge 2022 season,

and I'm very conflicted about it. I agree, Jamie, I agree. You don't want to invest too much in, in old receivers. I mean, I would, I would certainly not take like digs and Adams in the first three rounds. I think that's a recipe for disaster, but I think what's going to separate it for me, and this will transition into my quick, I'll just give my three points quickly so we can read emails here is what's going to separate it for me is I think digs can survive because he will be in one of the best offenses in football, which the Bills are every year.

Whereas I don't I have no idea what the Raiders offense is going to be like for Devontae Adams. So my first point is I'll just say real quick. And I may have to just amend the third round, you know, you know, line of demarcation here of it's probably going to be a receiver number as opposed to a round number, you know. So wide receiver 15. I won't take one of those guys, you know, line of demarcation here of, it's probably going to be a receiver number as opposed to a round number, you know? So wide receiver 15, I won't take one of those guys, you know, so we'll get to a point in, you know, in July where I kind of established where I'm not, where I'm completely out of the guy. Cause like I said, you know, you listed a few guys

in the third round that I would take digs over. So it's probably going to be a receiver number as opposed to a round. Okay. Now my three tips are, if you care about the quality of offense and you're making, oh, he's going to be on a good offense. Some people are like that. They care a lot about that.

Quarterback and wide receiver are the most affected by that. You should not care nearly as much about the quality of offense that your running back is on. You should care. And also, it's very hard to predict. Everything's hard to predict. So nothing's perfect. I can't sit here.

I did not think the Buccaneers would be, I think they were 20th in scoring or 19th and score i didn't think they'd be that high you know uh two years ago like the giants were 18th and scoring you know and then this past year they i think they were 32nd or whatever so i know that it's 22nd and passing too i heard that too they were right so not too bad so anyway what i'm saying is if you if you are concerned about a player's offense that matters a lot more at wide receiver than it does at running back, quarterback too. But that kind of makes sense. I mean, how do you have a good offense with a bad quarterback?

But wide receiver, that's a much bigger deal. Second one, I already said, if the only thing you like about a running back is his workload, that running back should not be drafted in the first four or maybe even five rounds. We've already done enough on that. And then my third tip to me, this is a year to do it. Draft a high-end backup quarterback. I think there's a lot of them this year. I think Trevor Lawrence, I'm not giving up on him. I think Deshaun Watson actually has a chance to be,

even if he's not a great NFL quarterback, a pretty good fantasy quarterback. Deshaun Azar's back, baby. And then you've got Caleb Williams in the mix as well. I don't know where he's going to go, but he's either going to be a high-end backup or he's going to knock someone else like Tua Tungabailoa, who could throw for 5,000 yards because he's

led the NFL in passing. No, not two years in a row. But he's been up there. He got hurt, but he was on pace for 5,000 yards the year before almost. So draft a high-end backup. Even if you feel good with your quarterback, keep him from a different team,

or you never know what's going to happen with your starter. So those are my three things. All right, let's get some emails. I'm surprised that Ben didn't have a fourth one. I've just always drafted A.J. Brown or D.J. Moore. You can be good. Yeah, profit. D.J. Moore email here.

But I think I'd be remiss not to ask how you feel as a Washington Husky about Penix and Odunze. Give us a little insight. Odunze was just an absolute superstar in college. He's a guy that every time you needed a big play, third down, those types of things, you knew the ball was going to go to him. And he always made plays. I couldn't really be higher on him. I'm not as high on Jalen McMillan um but he's really athletic and he brings some things i liked jalen polk more of those secondary receivers all three of those guys tested really well and i think we're

all going to get drafted reasonably high and be talked about adunze is obviously the the star penix throws an incredible ball um i thought our system really helped him. I think one of the things that people are missing with him is he did miss some throws at times, but we just had such a vertical and aggressive style. People talk about he's a great deep ball thrower, and I think he is. He throws some really great deep balls when you watch him on film, but you'll see somewhere he missed some open throws. Early last year especially, I think the Boise State game, he's got guys open and overthrowing him. He can't miss those throws and be you know a high-end player but he does have huge hands

and throws a really great spiral in all conditions we get rainy weather up here he was always you could still throw in the rain when washington was playing in rainy games i think he could be a decent nfl quarterback i mean i think he's kind of is what, what you see when you watch him, he throws a good spiral. He's pretty accurate, but there he's not perfect by any means. Yeah. And yeah, you don't have to comment on this if you agree, but played behind arguably the best offensive line in football last year. And then we saw that Michigan game when the protection broke down, it wasn't, it wasn't great for Pennix. So that's, you'll see what team he goes to in the NFL, but if he's got a bad young offensive line, it could spell trouble.

Definitely agree. Some more than others. Some more than others. All right. This is from Bill. Why is DJ Moore such a good pick? I do not understand. He shows no stats that would make him more than an unreliable best ball

wide receiver three. Get him, Ben. Get him, Ben. Well, I think the biggest thing is the Bears, you have to expect a lot more pass volume. And I think there's a lot that you do have to love about DJ Moore. I mean, he didn't earn targets at a really high rate per route last year. But some of that's because Fields takes a lot of sacks and scrambles a lot. So there's dropbacks that aren't becoming targets. And then he's very efficient when he does earn the

target. So a different quarterback, maybe he gets more target volume as a result. We know he can do so much with the ball in his hand, the yak ability, all that stuff. He's really good. I don't know how there's not stats that show that. I think there's a lot of stats that do show that he's very good. I guess the one stat would be that this was his, oh boy, his first year finishing as a top 12 receiver, I'm pretty sure, at least per game. A lot of that's touchdowns, and at least he's gotten through the early year stuff.

Remember when he would only score four touchdowns a year? His final year at Carolina, he finally got to seven. This last year he got nine, I think, total, eight, receiving one rushing. That was something I always talked about back when I was on the show. It's like, is this really going to keep up forever? Is he only going to score four touchdowns a year forever? It finally looks like, yeah, his yak ability, his ability after the catch is translating to the ability to score some touchdowns,

which we would have always expected. I think that's my expectation for him going forward is he's an eight, nine touchdown guy, not a 4-touchdown guy. So that's a big reason why he never finished super high in his better years early in his career. That is DJ Moore. Our next question is from Anthony. And where's Anthony from, Dave?

Anthony is from... Whole Fire Pizza. Yes. Butte, Montana. Just curious why I keep hearing you say Quinton Johnston is the only wide receiver there if they cut Williams and Allen. Josh Palmer is a far superior talent and has shown far more production than Quinton Johnston.

Yada, yada, yada. I think it's a good point. Why haven't we mentioned Josh Palmer? I don't know. No, he's not. He's in a contract here coming up. I don't know what his role is going to be. Is he the number three receiver

in LA? Or is he going to have a chance to be the number two receiver in LA? Beat out Quentin Johnston? Absolutely. He was clearly the guy to have ahead of Quentin Johnston. That's because Quentin Johnston absolutely i mean he was he was clearly the guy to have ahead of quentin johnston sure before yeah but that's because quentin johnson struggled i don't know this is the one where i would say i don't know if there's any stats that that say that josh palmer is great

other than he's been good when he's gotten big route volume but you look at the per route stuff targets per outrun the the stuff he's earned especially when you're playing with a guy like justin herbert he's been efficient because he has a great quarterback, but he doesn't earn a bunch of volume. He seems like just a guy to me when you dig into his numbers. He seems like a really good bench receiver for an NFL team. And then when you need him, you put him on the field and he comes through. I'm sure he's going to have an opportunity to compete in training camp.

It's a brand new coaching staff. But hand in hand with that is it's a coaching staff that has a track record of not airing it out. And so I'd be worried about a volume crunch there in L.A. with all the receivers, including Palmer and Johnston and Keenan Allen. All right, from Kevin. I'm curious why Superflex is... Oh, where's

Kevin from? He's also from Butte, Montana. Have we ever done that before? Two guys from the same town they have a great saint patrick's day celebration in butte montana that i went to in uh spring break in college it was fantastic shut down the whole city it's unbeautiful yeah i mean all i think about with spring break is people coming to florida i never thought about spring break spot it seemed like something adam would Adam would do. It was a road trip. I don't think Adam ever went out for spring break.

You know what I did for spring break? He went to his parents, but that doesn't count. That road trip ended at the Grand Canyon in Arizona, Dave. We did make it to warm weather. So it was a long road trip for spring break that year. I'm pretty sure I was broadcasting Miami baseball games for the student radio station over spring break. All the other kids at the station went to Daytona or whatever, or Butte, Montana. And I was like, okay, fine, I'll work.

Wild Coral Gables. Why is Superflex the standard in Dynasty but not in redraft leagues? If it's so popular in the most serious leagues. I would not say Dynasty is the most serious leagues, by the way. Let's not crap on redraft here uh why does that not carry over to redraft leagues i my argument would be that in dynasty because you have the same roster every year player movement is so much more important you need to like juice up the trade uh markets and stuff when you play single qb in dynasty quarterbacks just don't get traded.

They don't get moved for multiple years because there's enough to go around. So that's the thing that Superflex does. It artificially boosts the quarterback position. It makes them go higher on rookie drafts. It makes them much more interesting trade assets. That stuff isn't quite as important in redraft. But, I mean, Superflex redraft is fun too. But, yeah, I think it's just all about the trade market,

the off season stuff in dynasty. I remind people what Scott fish said on our show before the season started. He said, I think he said his kids were like, you play in one quarterback leagues. Like that's when young kids are playing super flex now, which I thought, but I don't,

I don't see that. I just have my nephew and my cousin's kid, and I don't think they're in any Superflex leagues. They're about 10 to 12 years old right now. I don't know. Jamie, your kid play any Superflex leagues? Not yet, no. Yeah.

Just one QB. So it's interesting. It would probably be a little surge in Superflex, I would imagine. Well, it's also, I think, as we see, you know, quarterback play getting better and better year over year, it's like, you know, I don't want to just draft these, like you said, Adam, you know, draft two great quarterbacks, or it's a good year to draft two quarterbacks

because they're going to be great. Like, you don't want to see these players just getting wasted where you can't use them. It's more fun to use them. And finally, from Nathan, dear Marcus, Derek. Oh, Nathan is from Butte, Montana, I believe. No, he's not. Dear Marcus,

Derek, Bryce, and Robert. What if he actually was? Yeah, that'd be great. Marcus, Derek, Bryce, and Robert. This feels so gettable. It feels like a basketball thing in the 90s. Marcus, Derek, Bryce, and...

Robert Ori, Derek Coleman. I don't know. Marcus Camby? Yeah. Is there a Bryce in basketball? Oh, Bryce Drew. Sure. I think we could probably find football players with these names too.

Is the gap between Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabors larger or smaller than the difference between Nabors and Odunze? There's some people who think that Nabors is the best receiver in this class. There are. There are also people who think Odunze is better than Nabors.

I would say the gap between Nabors and Odunze is better than neighbors. Right. I would say the gap between neighbors and Odunze is tighter than between Harrison and one of the other receivers. That's what I was going to say. I think Harrison is looked at very, very favorably, which is not to knock neighbors, but I think people really like neighbors. So they're,

they're putting him up in a, in a group with Harrison and Harrison's just in a group of his own. And it's also kind of disrespectful to Odunze who I think, I mean, yeah, I mean, you've a UW guy. I'm a little biased. But I think you've got to be high on a Doomsday, too. That guy's going to be really good. He's a rock star. What were the names again, Adam?

Marcus, Derek, Bryce, Robert. Marcus, Derek, Bryce, and Robert. I was going to say they're tying to Marcus Brown and Derek Henry, but... Those are the four people that listen to Adam's spring break baseball broadcast. No, that's not true. We had a nice audience. Oh, I saw a mock draft, I think, on The Athletic yesterday with the Giants getting Marvin Harrison.

Oh, man, I was so pumped. That would be wonderful. Three quarterbacks, an edge rusher, and an offensive lineman with the first five picks. I mean, it wouldn't be surprising if there's, if there's four quarterbacks and Bowers. Well, I think that the,

yeah, I mean, I think the question is, do the chargers with their, with Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh, do they take a wide receiver at five or do they go more physical with the Bauer with a tight end or, or more likely,

maybe not, I don't know, more likely, but equally likely an offensive tackle. Well, I mean, the, the Cardinals and the Chargers have to just be on the phone, just fielding offers for trade downs. Yeah.

You just don't want to see Harrison go to the Patriots. Yeah. Honestly, I want to, but as a fantasy manager, I don't want to see him go to the Giants either. Well, I mean, who's his quarterback going to be at those places? It'll be Daniel Jones this year. If it's Daniel Jones or Jacoby Brissett,

I think we'll be pretty unhappy, but we'll still take Harrison. Higher than you would typically take a rookie wide receiver. Ben Gretsch. I mean, that Kyler Murray, that's pretty good. He's in good shape. Ben Gretsch, thank you very much. Yeah. Great to be on with you guys again

Yeah, it's been a blast This is like the third time or fourth time I've tried to get Ben on He's always way too busy He's got other stuff He just hates you, he's waiting for the day you're not hosting Everybody, appreciate you being here and we'll talk to you next week Remember, it won't be long

Tell everybody where to find Ben In Washington Yeah, Ben I have a newsletter, b to find Ben. In Washington. Yeah. Where do we find him? I have a newsletter, bengresh.substack.com, the Stealing Signals newsletter. Find me there. I've subscribed to that, by the way.

It's excellent stuff. Thank you. All right. Have a good weekend, everybody. We'll talk to you Monday afternoon with some creative news.