Fantasy Football Today - Updated Busts! Josh Allen and Derrick Henry!? Who Else? (05/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 22, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Heath has Josh Allen and Derrick Henry on his Busts list, and we start the show debating which one of them is a bigger bust assuming they are drafted in the same range. Is Henry the next Le'Veon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott? Can Allen throw more TD passes if his rushing TDs decline? ... A lot of news and notes (13:00) and then more of Heath's busts including David Montgomery (17:15) and Stefon Diggs (23:45). Is Diggs washed up or was he just a bad fit in Joe Brady's offense? ... We talk about Keenan Allen (31:40) and a couple of rookies (34:15) including Malik Nabers. We don't agree on the potential of Nabers in this Giants offense. Also, we hear some busts suggestions from our audience (45:10) ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Well, hello again, everybody. Welcome to the show.

It is Wednesday, May 22nd, hump day. And we're talking about busts, post-NFL draft busts right now on Fantasy Football Today. Now, Jamie and Heath are here. Jamie gave his busts about a month and a half ago with Dave. Heath wasn't on that show. So today we're going to focus on Heath's busts and also some from the audience. Like we have a really interesting Tyreek Hill take from an audience member. We have a lot of votes for Drake London in my Twitter mentions. So we'll get back into that, even though we've

kind of beaten a dead horse on that. But here's what we're going to start with, guys. Heath, you have two players at the top of your bust list, Josh Allen and Derek Henry. I'm trying to figure out who's going to be drafted first. I'm looking at some industry drafts. I'm looking at some ADP. Let's just say it depends on your league, how early you draft quarterbacks. Maybe they're both going to be like round three picks, top 30 picks, something like that. Who's a bigger bust if they have similar draft costs, Derek Henry or Josh Allen? So I think the easy answer to that is in analyst drafts, in our drafts, Derek Henry will be the bigger bust because he will be the guy who's drafted maybe in round two or early round three, and Josh Allen will go after him. And in normal people drafts, Josh Allen's going to be a first-round pick, drafted as QB1, and he's going to be the biggest bust.

What if they go back to back 32 and 33? Who's a bigger bust? I would rather have Derek Henry than Josh Allen. So I guess that would make me in a, in a one quarterback league. So I guess that would be me say, and I think it's interesting you put them together because the case for both of them not being a bust is that they just run for 15 touchdowns again.

And it doesn't matter. Okay. Jamie, who do you, what do you think? They go back-to-back. Derrick Henry and Josh Allen is a bigger bust. I don't think Josh Allen's getting drafted as QB1, so I don't think Josh Allen's going in round one.

I think Josh Allen will probably go very close to Derrick Henry. Allen will be a bigger bust because I don't think he's going to score 15 touchdowns on the ground again, and I think his passing numbers are going to be not as prolific as they have been when he's been at his best. So I agree with the call on Josh Allen. Do you agree with the call on Derrick Henry? No, I don't. I think this is a good setup for him if he stays healthy. The only thing I think that will ruin Derrick Henry is if he gets hurt. I think from a production and performance standpoint, he will be fine. Heath, we actually kind of did this

on a Monday show. I made the bus case for Derek Henry, but now you get to make a better one. Go ahead. I don't know if I'll make the better one or not, but it definitely starts with the fact that you're talking about

a 30-year-old running back on a team that's not going to throw to their running backs and historically has split up the running back touches and oh yeah lamar jackson's going to take 30 of the team's rush attempts so i think that we will see a lower number of total rush attempts for derrick henry and probably a slight decrease like we saw for most of his career before the last two he was in the teens in terms of receptions, 18, 19, 18, 15.

The last two years, 28 and 33, I think that comes back down. And we did see a little bit of a drop-off in his efficiency as a rusher last year. I'm not sure that's going to bounce back. Yeah, one angle that we didn't talk about, Jamie, with Derrick Henry was the splitting of carries. Forget about the Lamar Jackson carries,

just the running back carries. As Heath mentioned it, Baltimore has the tendency to do that. Don't I, you know, I would love to see what the workload would have been for JK Dobbins last year. If he didn't get hurt in week one,

but what do you think? Do you think there's anyone else that factors in, in any meaningful way for Baltimore? Meaningful way in terms of 10 touches per game? 15 touches per game? I mean, 15 would be... Derrick Henry should be like an eighth round pick if someone else is getting 15. Well, I mean, touches matter

in terms of receptions. He's not going to have a lot of catches. Do you think anyone gets more than eight touches a game? No. You have Keaton Mitchell coming back from an ACL tear. I'm sure they're going to be careful with him and make sure he's healthy. He may be the running back of the future.

He's certainly not going to be the running back of 2024. Justice Hill is kind of proven to be a guy that I don't think will warrant very many touches. It's easy to split up touches when you don't have a player like this, when you have Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins and, you know, an aging Mark Ingram. I mean,

it's, it's, it's a different story. It's a different conversation. You and, you know, an aging Mark Ingram, I mean, it's a different story. It's a different conversation. You know, this guy is an aging player, but they didn't bring him in or assign him to, I think, use him in a part-time role. This is still a guy that can get the job done. And the thing that I look at from what we talked about on Monday, and this is where I come out with him, and it's really the only way that I come out with him on this is that he's stepping into a situation where the guy that was playing there before him, who is not close to the same caliber player, scored 13 rushing touchdowns in this offense.

And that's Gus Edwards. And what did Derrick Henry do last year when the team was winning and successful? He was a very productive running back, a very productive fantasy option. This team is going to win more games than they lose. And so, again, if he stays healthy, he should get 15 plus touchdowns. If he doesn't stay healthy, then he's a bust, but that's just the risk that you have to take. And that's where I think Keith is a hundred percent accurate. You're taking a chance on a 30 year old running back. And the history suggests that these guys don't always stay healthy. So I a hundred percent buy into that.

You know how I feel about older players, but he's just proven to be an alien. And so that's the thing that it's like, every time we write him off, Oh, he got the foot injury. He's not going to come back the same. He comes back the same. He comes back just as good last year. Yes. There was a down year for him. But again, you look at wins or competitive games, he was still among the best fantasy options. So the recessions don't matter to me. Lamar Jackson's rushing doesn't matter to me. It's a matter of will he score 15-plus touchdowns if he stays healthy? And for me, the answer is yes. So I think the competitive game thing will still remain true.

Another habit Baltimore's had is it seems like they win three or four games a year and Lamar sits halfway through the third quarter. I'd take the over on eight touches per game if you're talking about Keaton Mitchell plus Justice Hill. But because Mitchell's coming off the ACL, I'm not sure that Mitchell himself will get there. But I wouldn't be surprised if those, I would expect those two to combine

for somewhere between 10 and 12 a game. So, yeah, so I'm looking now, Jamie, that was a really beautifully long answer because it gave me all this time to look up for the first time the J.K. Dobbins role. And he got hurt about five minutes into the third quarter of week one. And up to that point, I believe he had every carry except for one. Gus Edwards did not have a carry,

and Justice Hill had one carry up to that point. I actually think Gus Edwards came in for a two-point conversion. But official carry, I think Dobbins had all of them except for one. So take that 2.3 quarters of football and do what you will with it. I was thinking about comparisons to Derrick Henry and what did I have here? Le'Veon Bell, 2019, 2020. He was the third round pick in ADP. He had an absolutely horrible season. He was with the Jets for two games

and then the Chiefs for seven games, whatever. That was the end of Le'Veon Bell. He was coming off kind of a bad year and he still was a third round pick because he got like 60 catches the year before, 66. Ezekiel Elliott was a third-round pick in 2022, coming off kind of a bad year where he actually finished about 18th, 19th per game,

which is what Derrick Henry was last year, depending on the format. I will say Henry was playing a lot better than those guys were. However, he's also older than they were. They were like 27, 28, and he's 30. I don't know. I do get, you know, that's what scares me a little bit.

Like we weren't out on Le'Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott because they were legends until they were absolutely horrible. Does that matter? Heath, do you buy that comparison at all? I mean I think – I don't know about the specific players because there were some weird things that happened with Le'Veon, obviously, throughout his career. But in terms of the idea of we weren't out on them because they'd been so good before until they were bad, I think that makes sense. The difference is that Henry's another couple of years older than those guys were when that happened. Yeah, but better. That is the other difference.

The age is going against him, but he was performing better. Those guys were coming off really concerning seasons. I can't believe we drafted them in the third round well you said elliot was like around rb20 per game like henry was last year right yes he was but he was showing signs of wear and tear and lacking like all the explosiveness was gone pretty much derrick henry's had a a rush over 55 yards in like seven straight seasons. It's crazy. But he was also splitting with Tony Pollard. I guess we didn't know how much the split would be. And here's the thing about Zeke.

He scored 12 touchdowns that year and he still was a bust. Because that's like all he did. Henry scored 12 touchdowns last year and was a bust. No, he scored 12 touchdowns the following year, like the year... I know. Well, right. But I'm saying you can score 12 touchdowns and still be a low-end RB2. I mean, Edwards was that last year.

I just think that Henry will be a better version of Edwards. Yeah. Let me make sure I had that number right on Zeke. Yeah, he scored 12 touchdowns, and he was RB22 overall. Okay. All right. And then I don't know if there's anything else you want to say about Josh Allen. Hey, let me ask you this about Josh Allen. Cause I think the, you know, the big bus case for him is that he scored 15 rushing touchdowns last year. That's going to come down. But what we never really say is that he seemed to gain what he gained in rushing touchdowns. He lost in passing touchdowns. And could you see that balancing out? Cause it's, it's almost like the same amount of total touchdowns four years in a row almost yeah i think i probably not we did see actually a decline in

the total in their number of rush attempts last year as well and a decline in the rush efficiency he was back down around four and a half yards per carry and four and a half carries per game we did see a small decrease in the past in the past touchdowns some of that has to do with he threw fewer passes per game his touchdown rate was a little bit down but it was still five percent which is above average and i have a hard time expecting that his touchdown rate is going to rebound up when I expect his receiving core to be worse. Yeah. Yeah.

Okay. I just, he ran the ball more near the end zone and threw the ball less near the end zone, at least like within the three yard line, which, but you know, you are losing Stefan Diggs. So it's just going to be hard overall. All right. Check out FFT dynasty. I have got to listen to the age curve episode. Uh, I'm assuming it was super interesting. Heath. It was, it was, we talked about age curve. We talked about it was with Ryan Heath. We talked

about what is and is not predictive for the various positions. So I got a lot of positive feedback on Twitter from people who said that whether they're playing dynasty or not, the information was really helpful. Exactly what I was going to say. So you can get it in the FFT feed, but that's going to go away at some point because we're going to increase our episodes in the regular FFT feed. So check out the fantasy football today, dynasty podcast, wherever you listen to podcasts or watch it on YouTube at youtube.com slash fantasy football today. We're going to take a break. We actually do have a decent amount of news and notes today, so we'll get to that momentarily.

Stick around. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football Today. Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert, as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so.

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That's why Bumble is changing how you start conversations. You can now make the first move or not. With opening moves, you simply choose a question to be automatically sent to your matches. Then sit back and let your matches start the chat. Download Bumble and try it for yourself. We got a couple of potentially elite running backs, Jamie. Are you worried about them? They got little OTA injuries. Josh Jacobs hamstring injury. Kyron Williams is not going to

participate in OTAs with a foot issue that Sean McVay said is nothing to worry about. What about you, Jamie? Are you concerned about Jacobs or Kyron? No. No. No. Not yet. You know, I think the Kyron one is interesting just because of the quorum addition. I guess you make the same thing with Jacobs

with the Lloyd addition. But, you know, the fact that it's at this point in the season, you know, they're just going to be cautious. I mean, I think, you know, I didn't see exactly what Raheem Moore said about Bijan Robinson, but, you know, they're being cautious with him in Atlanta, too. You know, there's no reason to run these guys out there if there's something bothering them. You know, if you want to make a case for Kyron Williams being concerned that he had issues in his rookie season, then I can understand that. But it'll probably push the ADP of any drafts that are going on in whatever form, best ball, rookie only.

For guys like Corham and Lloyd, they might bump up a couple of spots because, oh, maybe there's the chance that they play sooner rather than later. So I understand that, but as of now, no. Matthew Stafford was on the field for OTAs. There's some players who are in contract situations that we don't know if they're going to participate or not. Matthew Stafford was on the field for OTAs. There's some players who are in contract situations that we don't know if they're going to participate or not.

Matthew Stafford was a yes. T. Higgins is a no. And T. Higgins is the only franchise player, the only player that got the tag that hasn't signed it yet. So he actually cannot participate in OTAs. Brandon Ayuk sitting out right now. Justin Jefferson. Tristan Wirfs, offensive tackle for the Buccaneers.

These guys are looking for new contracts. Daniel Jones. Did you say CeeDee Lamb? I didn't say CeeDee Lamb. No, I think I said that one on Monday, maybe. But I should have said that.

CeeDee Lamb as well. Daniel Jones recovering from the ACL injury. What? Tua is with the Dolphins even though he's dealing with contract situation. Yes, and we have a note about his physique coming up.

Okay, Daniel Jones, recovering from the torn ACL. He is participating in OTAs, so it looks like good chance he'll be ready for week one. Aaron Rodgers has no restrictions in OTAs, but Mike Williams, coming off the ACL injury, he has not been cleared for football activities. Tua has lost 10 to 15 pounds. He's down to about 220 pounds, whereas Lamar Jackson has lost about 10 pounds from last year, and he's down to

205 pounds. That is light for Lamar Jackson. I don't know if anybody cares about that stuff. Do we care? Yeah, it's important. Look, Lamar knows he doesn't have to do anything near the goal line anymore. That's important. Look, Lamar knows he doesn't have to do anything near the goal line anymore. That's true.

Justin Fields, according to The Athletic, is competing with Russell Wilson for the starting job. Russell Wilson is a – or Justin Fields is a sneaky super flex pick right now. And I've made – There were two quotes yesterday that I liked. One was from Justin Fields. I don't plan on sitting the whole year. So keep that in mind if you are in the russell wilson camp and uh aaron rogers saying i can still throw it with the best of them yep he's such a humble guy though you know it was unusual

to hear him say something like that i think i think the interesting thing with the steelers is like if you don't believe in justin fields as a passer it might sway how you feel about George Pickens if you like the chains if you like people trying to walk in a straight line for like 30 yards and measure something well we might be done with those the NFL is going to use optical tracking instead of the of chains in the preseason to determine first downs it's 2024 I think it's it's about time for that. Hopefully they'll keep it going in the regular season. Patriots guard Cole Strange could miss weeks, maybe a couple months in the regular season. He's got a knee injury. That's a tough blow for the Patriots. Saints head coach Dennis Allen said that cornerback Marshawn Lattimore will be on the team in 2024. They plan to move

forward with him. And an interesting quote from Dolphin Safety, Javon Holland. He said, the difference between former defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, who's now the Eagles defensive coordinator, and current defensive coordinator, Anthony Weaver,

it's a complete 180. And the fact that Weaver is a good person makes a difference. Out. Shots fired. All right, Heath, back to your bus. So Josh Allen, Derek Henry. This one, I mean, is this a typo?

This is David Montgomery on your bus list? You love David Montgomery. Yeah, I buy into the fact that Jameer Gibbs is going to have a larger role. And a lot of Montgomery's production came early in the year when Gibbs was either being limited by the lions or was actually hurt two of his three games with over a hundred yards. Five of his 13 touchdowns came in three games early in the year. The only game

he had all season with more than three targets. I don't, I, and I don't listen, I don't know exactly where Montgomery's going to end up getting drafted. I don't i i and i don't listen i don't know exactly where montgomery's gonna end up getting drafted i don't want to draft him as a starter he's a number three running back for me me oh my i don't know what his head said it's bizarro day i'm looking at the last two drafts that we did half ppr and full ppr after the nfl draft and i drafted david montgomery in both of them in the fifth round uh slightly earlier, about five picks earlier in the half PPR draft, which makes sense. But, Jamie, what do you think?

Did I draft Montgomery too early in the fifth round? I don't think so. I think that's a good spot for him. You know, when, and I don't I don't necessarily disagree to call him a number three running back I think when you start to get basically past like RB 16 RB 17 18 range you know they're all kind of blend together the next six or seven guys so I don't know who he has ahead of him that's of of note that you know I would say Montgomery's better. The thing that I think Montgomery will still do is score touchdowns. And so, again, I don't think anybody was ever drafting him to be a pass catcher,

especially after they added Jameer Gibbs last year. They've now gone two years in a row with a slower, less explosive option on their own team as that goal line guy. And I don't think that's going to change. Jamal Williams led the NFL in rushing touchdowns two years ago. David Montgomery, you see here, 13 rushing touchdowns last year.

I think they liked that. I think Dan Campbell likes having that physical presence. And so, uh, yes, Gibbs will have a bigger role. Yes. Gibbs is the better of the two that,

that goes without saying, but I don't think that David Montgomery is completely going away. So, uh, you just said it. You could still score 10, 12-plus touchdowns and not be an elite fantasy option. But back in RB2 range, that's kind of where David Montgomery is expected to be drafted. And I think that's kind of the expectation of what you should have and how he will perform.

Yeah, I mean, the rankings are crazy here, right? Right now in PPR, Dave and Jamie have Montgomery 18th at RB 18 and Heath has him at RB 31. I'll tell you this, Heath, what do you think about this stat? Last nine games of the season, that's when Montgomery came back from the injury. So Jameer Gibbs had established himself at that point uh gibbs was rb10 per game in half and full ppr montgomery was top 13 overall but per game rb18 and half ppr rb20 in full ppr so that's exactly where jamie basically and dave have him ranked that's exactly where i drafted him pretty much. I drafted him as RB18 in the half PPR league. You have him 31st, so he did that with a 17-game pace of only 236 carries and 19 catches, but 13 touchdowns. Right.

If I remember correctly, Gibbs was actually getting a little bit more work in the red zone and inside the 10 in the second half of the year. He had one more rushing touchdown than Montgomery had in those final nine games. I don't have a big gap between RB20 and RB30. And so it took just a little bit of a change to his usage to drop him down in those projections. But I do think that I expect for Gibbs to have a larger share of the role than he had in those final nine games last year. Yeah, I mean, in those last nine games, Montgomery scored seven touchdowns and Gibbs scored eight.

And they had basically the same amount of carries inside the five-yard line, 11 for Montgomery, 10 for Gibbs. But then the postseason came and Montgomery had eight carries inside the five-yard line. 11 for Montgomery, 10 for Gibbs. But then the postseason came and Montgomery had eight carries inside the five-yard line and Gibbs had zero. So Dan Campbell loves Dave Montgomery. What is the difference

between Montgomery and Raheem Mostert? Age. Better offensive line. Yeah. I'm more concerned about the health of A-Chan than I am Gibbs. I think Gibbs will have a bigger role than A-Chan will. Who has more injury upside if Gibbs and A-Chan both got hurt? There's a third guy there in Miami now,

so it's kind of an unknown. But I would say Mostert probably has more upside if A-Chain gets hurt, because at least you know what... No, I take that back. No, Montgomery has more upside. I'd say slightly Mostert, but I don't have a strong feeling about it.

No. I think I need to make that sound by a little bit longer. No. It's like too brief. No. No. All right, moving on. Well, I guess we sound by a little bit longer. No. It's like too brief. No. No. All right, moving on.

Well, I guess we could do a little bit of David Montgomery or David Montgomery or Devin Singletary. Montgomery. I'm just going to make I've got Singletary

just barely right now. I'm just going to make he say things that I know people are going to be like, what? All right. It's one of your favorite things to do.

Zach Moss. Yeah, I take both of them in every draft, and I always draft Montgomery first. And I do have Mostert a couple of spots ahead of Montgomery. Okay. Yeah, look, I love Heath's rankings because they are bold and different. You know, like you'll get montgomery at rb 31

although in fantasy pros uh he is going pretty late he's well he's rb 19 but 75th overall so i guess whatever adp i would guess that most of the fantasy pros adp is best ball adp if i'm just guessing yeah i mean like brian thomas is going ahead of aaron jones well that's also their rookie only drafts too right maybe i just that's why i don't i don't think there's any good adp yet no there isn't okay uh next on the bus list is stefan diggs he will turn 31 on november 29th and uh really horrible in the last eight games of the season where he was not even a top 40 receiver on either a per-game or overall basis. Okay, Stefan Diggs,

what round would he have to go in to be a bust? Like, whoa, that's too early for Stefan Diggs. Oh, man, you ruined what I was going to say. I was going to bring up something I learned this morning that Allen Robinson's on the Giants. And I think it was Allen Robinson who was the first wide receiver that I said when a guy gets late

in his 20s or early in his 30s and shows you that he's lost a step, believe him. I don't want to draft Stephon Diggs in the first five rounds. Four rounds. Okay, so round five, you'd be okay with it in a 12 team league he's okay in round five i do have him third amongst the texans wide receivers he did have his lowest yards per catch last year since he was in minnesota his lowest yards per

target since he was in minnesota his lowest yards per game since he was in Minnesota. He now has more competition for targets than he had in Buffalo. So I don't think you can just count on him seeing 10 targets a game like he has for most of the past four seasons. Okay, Jamie, I'm seeing Stefan Diggs 36th overall in our PPR draft. About 42nd overall in our half PPR draft. In the ESPN draft, he went 39th overall. So, you know, late, you know, three, four turn, or maybe a little bit into round four. That's too early for Heath. How about for you? In a two receiver league, it's too early in a

three receiver league. That's about the spot you should expect them to go, you know, because how receivers get pushed up. And I think how most people should be drafting the position, which is, you know, the top 25 to 30 receivers should be going in the first 40 some odd picks, um, you know, based on how the position positions shake out. So I don't mind him in that range, but I do think that it's a very fascinating discussion and we're going to have a lot of Collins versus Diggs versus Dell and which is the best of the trio and who's the worst and the worst might be really bad you know just based on how history tells us that it's difficult for three receivers to finish in the top 24 and so how far off will the third one be if all three do not get there?

And so, you know, the, I think the Texans set up Stefan Diggs to have a big season, trading for him and giving him the opportunity to prove that he still has an opportunity to play at a high level, changing his contract and allowing him to go out and earn another big payday if in fact he's going to get one. And so they dangled the carrot in front of him, and they said, go get your bag if you think you're still capable of doing it. And that sort of gives me a little bit of hope that he's not going to, you know, not that he took plays off or whatever, but there was stories going into last year at this point

about he was disgruntled in Buffalo, and it may have played itself out over the course of the season. So he's with the quarterback on the rise. He's with the guy. I think that will value him. He's with the team. I think that's going to give him an opportunity to succeed. And so how much does that push back and push down the value of the other two guys? So I'm fine taking a chance on him as, as a low end number two receiver. I don't want to reach for him. I certainly don't think he's at the same caliber player that he used to be. And how much of last year was the change in offense? How much was it? He just

wanted out how much of it was, as he said, which is probably, you know, the most easy thing to identify is that at his age, did he lose a step and we're going to find out. So don't reach for him. Don't overvalue him. The three, four turn, I think is a good spot in a three receiver league. There was a player that got the jamie rocket emoji yesterday or the day before on twitter that i saw and uh he's now one spot behind digs in my wide receiver rankings i think it's a really interesting comparison it's chris godwin why did he get the rocket ship emoji jamie uh he spoke about the new offense and being back in the slot how much that allows him to play at, I think a more comfortable level for him.

Oh yeah. I love it. All right. Well, let me, let me throw this scenario. You okay. What if digs didn't lose a step?

What if he just was not a fit for Joe Brady's offense? Because he was so good at the start of the season. And there is an article that I'm reading now that I read a few, whenever it came out last month or something like that. It's from CBSSports.com, April 9th, by Douglas Clausen, and it's why Stefan Diggs should return to superstar form with the Texans

after discouraging final stretch with the Bills. Now, for one, I don't see him returning to superstar form just because of the targets, but there are some compelling cases in this story about why he was not doing well specifically under Joe Brady. He had 23 receiving yards on play action in nine games with Brady compared to 346 before. It did worse when he was in motion.

Half of Diggs' targets with Joe Brady were either screens or quick hitches compared to 42% prior, so that's a little bit more. But mostly it was that he wasn't getting anything done in the vertical passing game, and he was before the Joe Brady hire. And this article theorizes that Joe Brady just didn't do a good job of scheming Stefan Diggs open, basically, and that Bobby Slowik will. you know whether you want to listen to this article or not you just look at the stats he was so much better before the offensive coordinator change uh when Josh Allen's passing numbers were better too by the

way can you buy that that he didn't actually show us that he was losing a step because it didn't happen at the start of the season it happened mid-season and it happened under Joe Brady I think it's possible if that's, then it makes me feel a little better about my Josh Allen bust call. Like if Joe Brady is the problem. But I just, and I think it really just comes down also to how you feel about Tank Dell and Nico Collins. Because I think they're both kind of ascending stars.

And I don't think that they, especially with the way that Stroud seems to feel about Dell, I don't think they'd bring in Diggs and just sideline one of those two guys. Would you guys rather have Stefan Diggs or Tee Higgins? Higgins as of now, but obviously his status will determine that. I'm a little lower on Higgins, I think, than the crowd,

so I do have Diggs just ahead of him. Diggs or Cup? Cup. Wow, they're very close for me. I'll lean Diggs right now. No, I'll take Cup. Diggs or a commercial break? Commercial.

No. No. All right, we'll be right back. We'll talk about Keenan Allen and Heath's worst bus call and Brock Bowers after this. With Smartwater's pure, crisp taste, there's nothing to overthink. So while you may be spiraling over double texting your crush, whether your skincare routine is working because you look the same or is doing nothing because you look the same and whatever the heck red light therapy is it's definitely not that don't overthink how you hydrate life's full of choices smart water is a simple one

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for life okay jamie i don't think you're gonna argue too much with the keenan allen bus call right that's what he says keenan allen did he ended up in round seven in our most recent draft and yes the the six seven turn so let's say just round seven in our two drafts uh let's see the espn draft i think i did actually he was 68th went through over this on monday a little bit we were seven turn. So let's say just round seven in our two drafts. Let's see the ESPN draft. I think I did actually, he was 68th went through over this on Monday a little bit. We were talking about Odunze. Yeah. I, I, I expect that he's going to have an ADP higher than round seven in full PPR, but that could be wrong. And I don't have him in round seven. I've got him in round eight. And no agreement, no disagreement from Jamie, I assume.

No. You know, as we talked about,. As we talked about with the show on Monday, that wouldn't be surprising if Romo Dunze is better than him and obviously DJ Moore is better than him. I've said this quite a bit. He was on my bus list earlier as well. The change of environment scares me. Going to Chicago, going to play in this weather could be a problem, you know, as the season gets colder, you know, the season goes on as, as, as the weather gets colder.

He's not going to be, you know, seeing the same level of targets that he's had, which has been a huge part of his success, you know, and look, he was awesome last year as, as he entered his early thirties. So, you know, I don't think it was necessarily an age thing. You have to wonder, you know, how much of think it was necessarily an age thing. You have to wonder, you know, how much of the injury was there out of it and Herbert's not back. Why should I come back to play for this? And even the team maybe said, you know,

don't, we don't want you to get further injured. Or he actually was hurt. And, you know, you have to worry about that at some point being, being an issue. So yeah,

I'm in total agreement with that. And I do think that this is one of those situations where the name will still carry some weight and you may get disappointed with the production it's it's almost like everything that concerns me about digs is slightly more concerning for alan except for the fact that alan didn't have the fall off last year but he's older he's go i don't think the bears pass offense is going to be as effective or efficient as the Texans' pass offense this year. Jamie mentioned it, the weather. At least Diggs gets to play in a dome in the South.

Allen's going to play some terrible weather games. And I think that DJ Moore and Roma Dunzey are probably better than Nico Collins and Tank Dell as a duo. So, yeah, it's a bad situation, I think. And I would expect that there's fewer pass attempts for the rookie Williams than there is for the second-year Stroud. Would you guys rather have Keenan Allen or Jordan Addison? Addison.

Especially with Hawkinson hurt. Right now, I've got Allen just ahead of him. How about a guy that Heath took just before Keenan Allen in one of our drafts, Cortland Sutton? I'd go with Sutton. For now, Sutton.

Should we get to Heath's worst call? I knew this was coming. Malik Neighbors, what? I have no idea what his ADP is going to be. Let's see where he's been going. When round five in one draft of ours went in round six in one draft of ours to me. And in the ESPN draft, he went in. He went 49th overall.

So that's a they do 10 team. So are you starting to agree now? Well, it's really okay. As wide receiver 24, yes. Too early. He went ahead of Zay Flowers, Chris Godwin, Tank Dell. Yeah, I think he should be more like wide receiver 30. Where do you have him?

Wide receiver 43. And I think four rookie wide receivers, if they come in and get 25% of the team's receiving production, they are awesome. Like, really, really awesome. And you look at the New York Giants over the last four years, 2,886 yards and 15 touchdowns, 31, 57, and 17,

31, 96, and 15, and 15 30 26 and 12 25 of that if he's just every bit as awesome as we think he is is somewhere between seven and eight hundred yards receiving and about four touchdowns so what did okay what did um just just for comparison's sake i'm just just going to look because I doubt you know off the top of your head. Justin Jefferson's rookie season was 2020. He had 1,400 yards out of 1,400 divided by 4,265. He had 32.8% of their production. So, okay. Neighbors can do better than 25%. Justin Jefferson? He can do better than 25%. Justin Jefferson?

He can do better than 25%. But here's the thing. I don't think we should sit here and say he can't do better than Justin Jefferson. I think there's a possibility. No, he can't. Jano Jones can't do that. But I think he could get like 11, 1200 yards. Man, he's a, he's a super, and he might be, he's a super duper star.

If you come in as a rookie in this offense with this quarterback and produce 1100 yards, that is the tip top outlier ceiling case. And I think even in that case, it's probably a low touchdown total. That is the tip top outlier ceiling case. And I think even in that case, it's probably a low touchdown total. And he's around our wide receiver 25 or something. I'm hopeful for neighbors to be like 950 to a thousand yards and six touchdowns. That's I want more than that. Obviously you want more than that. Yeah.

I think, look, there's, there look, there's two sides to this. There's obviously the side that Heath is coming out on, which history tells us that it's difficult for Daniel Jones to support this type of receiver to the level that I think people want. Also, the other side of it is he's never had a receiver of this caliber. Yeah, there's no history of him with a receiver like this. That's what I'm saying. But he's never supported a receiver.

He's never had this type of receiver. And he basically retired Kenny Galladay coming off of what we thought. That's what I'm saying. But he's never supported a receiver. He's never had this type of receiver. And he basically retired Kenny Galladay coming off of what we thought. He just completely ended his career. Well, that won't happen with neighbors. You know, look, if he's every bit as good as he can be, he's going to elevate Daniel Jones or Drew Locke. And the reason I bring that up is if Jones is not ready to go week one and Locke comes out and plays well, maybe he keeps the job for a while.

You want to talk about another bargain for super flex leagues, Drew Locke should be one of your last picks also. And so there's – Brian Dable's coming from a situation where that's what changed his quarterback was Josh Allen was good on the cusp of becoming great and got Stephon Diggs. Daniel Jones is terrible to make him good. You have Malik neighbors come in and hopefully that's what happens and changes the tenor of his career.

And maybe what the giants are looking at. There's also the potential of he's just good and Jones still sucks. So, yeah. Oh yeah, for sure. You know, I think if you're,

you said it best on, on a, on a show a couple of weeks ago, Adam, about when to draft Malik neighbors, when you feel like you're – you said it best on a show a couple weeks ago, Adam, about when to draft in league neighbors, when you feel like you're drafting league neighbors. When we get to that point in the receiver rankings where it just feels like there's a drop-off, and he's a little bit before that for you, I think. And so that feels like a good spot to take a chance on a player like this.

He should be considered a number three receiver. Taking him in – what did you say, the ESPN draft? 49th overall? Yeah. And that's 10-team league team league right so way too soon um you know if you're talking about end of round five round six i think the round five pick was jacob gibbs if not mistaken he tends to gravitate towards you know the younger rookies or the younger players and rookies um round six i know was you you know and that's i think an okay spot for him you know i would prefer him in round seven but round six i think think, is okay,

depending on how many receivers have gone off the board at that point. Eli Manning had a 69.4 passer rating in 2013, and then Odell Beckham came in. He missed the first four games of the year, and he had 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns in 12 games, and Eli Manning went from a guy who looked done to having a 92.1 passer rating in 2014. Mike Evans was the number 13 receiver as a rookie in 15 games.

His quarterbacks were Mike Glennon and Josh McCown. They threw for 3,623 yards and 21 touchdowns. In 16 games. In 16 games with 20 interceptions. 500 yards more than Daniel Jones or the Giants have thrown for the last four seasons. What do you think they would have thrown for if they didn't have Mike Evans?

That's my whole point here. It's like, can Daniel Jones get to 3,500 yards? I don't think that's crazy. The team. I think you got to put it at the team. Fine, the team. Can they get to 3,500 yards? I would feel better about neighbors

if current Eli Manning was the quarterback. Would you feel better about him if Drew Locke were the quarterback? Maybe. I would. I probably would. I mean, not significantly either way.

Because it's not just that Jones is terrible as a passer. It's that he's going to take off and run a bunch too. Absolutely. And that it seems like

the table has decided if Daniel Jones is playing, the best way to have a chance to win is to throw as little as possible. Yeah. No, you're right.

But I would just like to see if everything – They also had Barkley that season too when they were – Right. If neighbors becomes the focal point of the offense. Just like Darren Waller last year. That was awesome. Okay. Let's go to –

That one preseason game. That one drive. I was at that game. It was terrific. Brock Bowers is your last bust here. Did you see a story yesterday about Waller, by the way? It's like, make a decision or we're cutting you. Oh, really?

That wasn't from anybody from the team. That was a report. Oh, no. Well, is Malik Nabors happy to be on the Giants? No. He's really not. No. Talking bad about the jerseys yesterday?

All right, look. Everyone's talking bad about the jerseys. He's just trying to be one of the fans, basically. Thankfully, we know that Brian Dable's really patient with first-round rookie-wide receivers that aren't necessarily happy. All right, let's talk about brock bowers now oh you have tony right what you said no he did not uh no no no it was the year after yeah the second year two um this is not an anti-brock bowers take it's an anti-situation take. We've seen two seasons of Devontae Adams in Las Vegas,

and he has 355 targets in those two seasons. Down the stretch, they went run heavy, and Devontae Adams is still averaging 12 targets per game. I think they might throw it 28 to 30 times a game, and 35% of those are going to go to Devontae Adams. That makes it really difficult for Bowers to be a starting fantasy tight end. Especially on a team that's probably not going to have a lot of passing touchdowns. I'm guessing you would not have taken him ahead of Evan Ingram as he went in one of our recent drafts.

I certainly would not take him ahead of Evan Ingram. Or David Njoku? I would rather have Njoku. Jake Ferguson? I would rather have Njoku. Jake Ferguson? I'd rather have Ferguson. Darren Waller? No. I'll take Brock Bowers.

Jamie, do you ever get excited to draft Brock Bowers? No. Yes. Oh, sorry. Yes. Okay. The thing that I'm curious about, I don't disagree with what Keith said about the pass volume.

The Devonta Adams number is a little bit inflated. I had 21 target game in that four-game stretch, so I don't know if that's going to be the norm over that time. But can he leapfrog Jacoby Myers to be the second target getter in this offense? And that would not surprise me. Remember, Jacoby Myers was brought to this team with Josh McDaniels. And while he did play well last year, even after the change, this is now the first draft pick in the first round of this new regime. And so how much will they feature Bowers, maybe even to the extent of hurting

Devonta Adams, which I think will have to be the case if Bowers is good. And so I think if you're drafting Bowers and the three tight ends you mentioned, we'll discard Darren Waller, but Ferguson and Njoku. Ferguson, if you buy into his upside changing or his ceiling changing, then I think it's easy to go Ferguson. If you're buying into what Najoka did last year over the course of the season and hoping that's going to be the norm with Deshaun Watson, then that's fine. Buy into that.

But those are the two tight ends, I think, where he comes into play. He shouldn't be drafted out of anger. He shouldn't be drafted out of kill. He shouldn't be drafted out of pits. This was not the most ideal landing spot for him. But it's not a bad idea. If you are drafting Bowers to take him with a Ferguson, to take him within the joke, to pair him maybe with Hawkinson and just to see if, you know, the beginning part of the season

Bowers is off to a good start. And then Hawkinson is back. You know, that that's not my ideal situation to pair those two tight ends together. Cause it could be awful for both of them, but, um, you get the point, you know, you're, you're taking a chance on, you know, hopefully somebody that can help you if Bowers does struggle. So I also think that people should not look at what happened last year and say, he's the next Sam Laporta. Rookie tight ends don't usually do that. And so if you are looking for a rookie tight end comp, look at what Dalton Kincaid did. Look at what maybe the combination of Musgrave and Tyler Craft did.

That's kind of what rookie tight ends tend to give you. Laporta was a fluke of nature with how he performed. To draft him as a number one guy could be a huge mistake just across the board. Hey, speaking of Sam Laporta,

let's go to our audience busts. Remember Man Vs. Life, he gave us one last week, a tweet, or whenever we read tweets. I think it was actually on Monday, sorry. He said, Sam Laporta, he calls him Touchdown Laporta. Won't be a bust, but for his ADP, he will be. More Gibbs, more JMO, more Demont.

I think we could have just probably put their full names. Can he really get all those touchdowns in the green zone? So Sam Laporta, a bust candidate. What do you guys think? I mean, there is the potential for him to be a bust. You know, there also is, I believe it's 67 targets that are vacated from Josh Reynolds. And so where do those go? Do those go to Jameson Williams, which would be the hope and Laporta's target shares stays the same. Do those get sort of trickled down to everybody? And it's more from Laporta. He's easily the second guy in this offense from a passing standpoint

behind Amon Ross St. Brown. And this offense stayed the same. The fact that they were able to keep coordinator, keep quarterback, and hopefully building on what we saw last year. I don't think Laporta is a bust. I think it's going to be frustrating for someone who takes Laporta and then watches potentially Travis Kelsey, Trey McBride, or Mark Andrews outscore him.

If it's by a lot, then you're going to be frustrated. I like Laporta in round three. I think in full PPR, maybe even slightly early round three. But I don't really think there should be hardly any separation at all between Laporta, McBride, Andrews, and Kelsey. And so I think we're going to see at least one of those guys go a round later than him.

And I'm going to rather take those guys in round four than him in round three. I got some votes for Drake London as a bust. And I mean, we've spoken about this so much. I feel like I'm coming off a little bit too negative on Drake London. I actually don't really think he's going to be a bust. I think I'm questioning his upside a little bit.

It's weird because Drake London could, is getting, I think going to get pushed up so much by a draft position, he could almost be a breakout and a bust in the same season. Like he's going to be drafted much, much higher than anything he's ever done. I think he's going to be better than he's ever been, but I don't think I'm going to be able to draft any of them.

When would you draft Drake London? Round four. No, you're not going to be able to. Sorry. I know. Jamie, you're round two on London? Yeah. Heath is right know he could have an amazing season but be outperformed by a couple guys that may go behind him you know jalen waddle can easily bounce back and perform better than him davante smith you know two guys that have done

it t higgins you know guys that are in you know fairly good situations as well if not great situations you know so um that's the risk you run when you run when you're taking a player like this. But the hope is that his pedigree, his now quarterback upgrade system, upgrade, all those things, lend itself to him producing at the opportunity that's available to him, which could be top 10 fantasy option. I think he kind of reminds me of Michael Pittman. I still don't know how high the ceiling is

for either of those players, London and Pittman. I'm not sure we've really seen what they're capable of. Hopefully, I think we'll see that this year from London. We'll find out. But I just think there's going to... He's so clearly the number one guy. I can't see Pitts out-targeting him. And they just don't have that much target competition.

I feel like there's a pretty high floor for those guys. Well, I feel like there's a high floor for there was a high floor for Pittman last year because of Minshew. I don't know about that this year. In fact, I would nominate him as a bust. Yeah, I was just thinking the same thing. He has that potential. He's going to be drafted in the same range. You know, back in the round two

is most likely where Pittman's ADP will settle in PPR. But as we saw last year you know touchdowns still escaped him in his offense and now they added another receiver josh down should continue to improve and you're getting a full season of jonathan taylor so full season of richardson full season of the taylor you know how much running will that offense have to take away from pitman so yeah it's not a bad call okay it's a half-hearted call anyway. But Andy says, I'm worried about a Tyreek Hill drop-off

in the fantasy playoffs. I think kind of overall, he said more targets for Waddle, Malik Washington, OBJ, but then the fantasy playoffs are at Houston, home against San Francisco, and at Cleveland, which is a cold weather game

and not necessarily good, but I, that's a kind of an interesting call. And we were worried about that last year with Tyree kill. Cause his fantasy playoffs were the jets, Cowboys and Ravens. He missed the jets game. He scored 19 points against the Cowboys,

which was good, but not amazing below his season. Average scored 13.6 at Baltimore, six catches for 76 yards. So Heath, what do you think? Uh, playoff bus Tyreek Hill.

I'm not as worried about it this year as I was last year. Um, that's only one bad weather game versus I think two. And I would expect the game like at home against San Francisco could eat very easily be a shootout at Houston could very easily be a shootout. At Houston could very easily be a shootout. So not as worried. There's actually only one bad weather game last year too, but you had that Jets matchup at home, which was super tough.

But they only had that at Baltimore last year in Week 17. If he gets you there doing what he's capable of doing, you're not going to be upset about him. Yeah. Mike says, Marvin Harrison's ADP doesn't leave much room for profit. Huge talent will eventually be great. If there's a learning curve, he won't pay off. Yeah. It's the same thing like Drake London. I mean, you're asking a player to do something he's never done before, step into the NFL and be a superstar. And yes,

there's everything is right there for it. You know, number one guy in an offense expected to be the number one guy in the offense, not a lot of competition for targets. You know, number one guy in an offense expected to be the number one guy in the offense. Not a lot of competition for targets. You know, we can sit here and say McBride. Yes, that's an obvious one. But Michael Wilson and Zay Jones, are they going to, you know, hurt Marvin Harrison's upside? They might, but you know, those aren't exactly scary options right now. So is drafting him early around two, two high? Probably so. But if you want him, that's where you have to get him at this point. Don't say probably so. You don't believe that, do you?

That it's too soon? Yeah. No, I'm drafting him there. But I mean, again, history tells us. You went through and looked at a bunch of rookie wide receivers. I know you're looking at ones with bad quarterbacks, but there's not a lot of guys that do what we're asking him to do. But we've had three in the past four years,

Jefferson, Chase, and Puka. I think we're seeing it's pretty possible. That's my... But you're right. I mean, we don't get a lot of rookie wide receivers that do that. But you don't feel like that's too early. And I also don't think you believe that his ADP doesn't leave much room for

profit because he's going to like, let's say he goes 15th overall. I think you both probably feel like Harrison could perform like a top five player. Yes. I don't think, I actually don't think he's going to go 15th overall. I think we're going to see him closer to 20 just because when the

quarterback start to get in there from what ADP will tell us, you know, our drafts, he's going to go in the top 15. I will say he's going to have probably a wide range. I think probably CBS ADP's late round two. I know the very first glimpse that I saw of NFC high stakes ADP, he was 12th. I think he'll have a first round ADP in high stakes leagues

and probably late second round in leagues where quarterbacks get drafted earlier. Andre says Devontae Adams will be a bust. He's an aging wide receiver with poor quarterback play. I agree if he has around 280P. He was also an aging wide receiver with poor quarterback play last year. Do you think he was a bust last year?

I don't think so. Was he? Where did he finish? He finished 11th or 12th, but per game, I think he was more like 18 or 16. I'll tell you in a moment. Okay.

Devontae Adams was, yes, he was 14th in non-PPR, 10th in PPR, and per game, he was 19th in non-PPR, 17th in PPR. That's probably a slight bust, yeah. But he's not going to be drafted as high as he was last year, probably.

Gut Check says Tony Pollard will be a bust. I feel like there's a good chance he'll be the 1B instead of the 1A. I guess it just depends on when you're drafting him. We haven't seen him get drafted in a range right now that I think is bust-worthy. Last year certainly was. It's kind of weird. Is there a scenario where they both end up being solid draft picks and I look at the last draft we did and Pollard went in round seven

and Spears went in round eight? And I'm like, yeah, that could work. Oh, yeah, they could beat Najee and Warren. I was going to say, what was the finish for the Steelers, guys? Okay, if you need a second. You want full PPR, half PPR? Full. Okay, per game?

Per game, I actually think Warren was better than Najee. Warren was RB29 per game. Najee was RB31 per game. It's not as good as I remember. was better than Najee. Warren was RB 29 per game. Najee was RB 31 per game. Yeah. It's not as good as I remember. Yeah, not great. They had 13 rushing and two receiving touchdowns combined.

So 15 total touchdowns for them. That's not great. That's probably like, but they're right around RB 30. I'm guessing that's where they were drafted in Pollard and Spears in this draft. Anyway, if you guys want to talk for five seconds, I can figure that out. I expect there to be a bigger gap between Pollard and Spears.

I think I may have downgraded Spears more with the Pollard signing than other people did. But I expect Pollard to be, to have at least like a 60-40 split edge as opposed to what we saw for Najee and Warren last year. Pollard was RB25 and Spears was RB33 in this draft. Still works. That's fine. All right, thank you guys.

We'll talk to you with another episode tomorrow. We'll talk to you then. For Heath and Jamie and Thomas, I'm Adam. another episode tomorrow. We'll talk to you then. For Heath and Jamie and Thomas, I'm Adam. See you tomorrow.