Fantasy Football Today - Updated RB Rankings! Najee Top 12? How to Rank Committees (05/04 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 4, 2021

We get a standout rookie RB basically every season, but is 2021 setting up to be an exception? We break down the rookies and the veterans on today's show beginning with our news and notes (5:45) as we look at the Patriots backfield, the Eagles backfield and what Kenneth Gainwell's role will be, the Aaron Rodgers situation (12:30) and more ... Kicking off our rankings disputes with Miles Sanders vs. Antonio Gibson (18:00). Then we get into Najee Harris (22:00) as Adam tries to make the case for Harris as a first round pick. And while we're high on Harris, we're obviously not quite as high on Travis Etienne (29:05) ... Myles Gaskin vs. Mike Davis (35:25), James Conner vs. Chase Edmonds (42:00), Javonte Williams vs. Melvin Gordon (50:00), plus our thoughts on the 49ers (56:50) and Jets (1:00:50) backfields ... Email us at [e-mail] Want in the Podcast League? Try our NFL Draft contest! https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/permalink/1115877195573244/ 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Looking at the updated running back rankings post-NFL draft. A reminder to everybody, keep this in mind. In five of the last six seasons, at least two rookie running backs finished top 12. Five of the last six seasons, at least two top 12. Are we going to get that this year?

What do you think, guys? Definitely possible in PPR. I won't say it's likely, but it's possible with Harrison and ETN being the obvious candidates. What was the year that it wasn't? Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs. They were top 15. They were top 15, I want to say, in non-PPR.

Jacobs was like 20th in PPR. Is this you just banging the drum for Najee Harris being a first-round pick? Is that where we're going to with this? No, but he obviously has the best chance right now on paper. Yeah, if you set the over-under on one and a half, I would definitely take the under for top 12 running backs this season.

And this is a mega weak running back class it looks like, so they don't have quite as much opportunity, it seems. Right, not as many candidates. We can feel comfortable. I don't know about mega weak, but we thought it was weak before the draft and the NFL teams behaved as

if it was even weaker than we thought it was. So I think we can go ahead and establish that it's, by all indications, a bad running back class. Well, how about this? So Michael Pirine shares a backfield with Michael Carter. They were both selected in the fourth round. The Jets selected Pirine 120th overall. They selected Carter 107th overall a year later. Pirine was the 12th running back selected, and Carter was the 5th running back selected.

So that's just a little bit of perspective here. That's a good reminder also of not getting too excited about Michael Carter because he has this great opportunity. As far as pedigree goes, he's right there with the other guys. Yeah, but you watch him play, and he's absolutely nothing like Michael Pirine. Why did he get to the other guys. Yeah, but you watch him play, and he's absolutely nothing like LeMichael Pirine. Why did he get to the fourth round? Size, maybe?

I think size was a huge reason for it. I think horrible film of pass protecting had a lot to do with it. He's not a complete running back, but he is a really fast running back. No, he gets caught from behind. He's got burst. His combine speed and size.

I made this joke when we were on the watch party. It was some real poetry that Leon Washington gave that pick because he is basically the exact same size, runs a slightly slower 40 than Leon Washington coming out of college. There was, by the way, a little off topic. I don't know if anybody noticed the 40 times were really fast this year, maybe not for running backs, but for wide receivers. And they were all done at pro days.

And they weren't done by the teams. I believe they were done by scouts, but there was no combine this year. There was an article on CBSSports.com. I'm trying to find it. If you Google it, just CBSSports.com article, why 40-yard dash times are faster at pro days than combines. It was pretty interesting, and it was not because of cheating. It was because the story quoted people saying,

these kids are a lot more relaxed at their pro day. When they're at the combine, they're under the lights. They've done all these other things, and they might run their 40 later, things like that. So that was just kind of interesting. But I just couldn't help but notice how many wide receivers had really fast 40 times, and there was no combine this year. And with that in mind, he ran a 4.54. Yeah, but that's also what Javante Williams ran, I think, a 4.55. Yeah, this is just all the more reason to completely discount

40 times this year. Don't even bother looking at him. I think one thing we talked about last year, and again I'll go back to Ben Gritch, was the size speed score and how incredibly off the charts Jonathan Taylor's was. Michael Carter's ranks in the 28th percentile

of all running back prospects per player profiler. So that's not very good. Do you have the other rookie running backs where they ranked? It wouldn't take that long. ETN was the 80th percentile. Cool. He was timed at uh what was he timed i got it right here four four five and i

believe what they did was they just added five hundredths of a second to everyone's time from the pro day oh interesting um nausea harris did not run oh that's good but we know how good he is. And Javante Williams, 39th percentile. So not very, like I said, it's not a good class. Remember the running back we were taking first last year, Clyde Edwards-Ziller, ran a 4-6. So some people

care about that stuff, some people don't. We do have some news items to get to before we get to the rankings. Some of the things we'll be talking about, of course, where the rookies rank. If you listen to FFT in 5, you know we're going to talk about Josh Jacobs. Heath has him 15th in PPR. Dave has him 21st. Miles Gaskin, Mike Davis, they're basically back-to-back, and they're very similarly ranked for Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

And the Cardinals running backs. Chase Edmonds ahead of James Conner. That is the case in most situations. I'll explain that a little bit later, depending on format. But let's go to the news and notes real quick here. running backs. Chase Edmonds ahead of James Conner. That is the case in most situations. I'll explain that a little bit later, depending on format. But let's go to the news and notes real quick here. New England declined Sonny Michel's fifth-year option. And again, I explained that yesterday. Every first-round pick has a four-year deal, and the team can pick up his fifth-round option. They have to do that going into the guy's fourth season. So this is Michel's fourth season. They had to decide now, are we going to pick up his fifth year option

or is he going to become a free agent next season? And they have elected not to re-sign him. I guess they could franchise him in theory. They could still work out a contract with him next year. He's not under contract for next year as of now. That's what it means. Right, yeah. It just means he's easier for them

to leave on the side of the road. Yeah, but it's not a vote of confidence. it that way i would anticipate the same move being made with damian harris in the coming years right and then eventually with rolandre stevenson yeah i don't know the well no they can't do it with those guys because they weren't first oh they weren't first but they can still get ditched on the side of the road but why okay so damian harris was very very good very productive last year there was also a report from The Athletic from Jeff Howe that said Michelle and Harris will be solid one-two combos. And the truth is Michelle has year where they both played. They both dealt with injuries. Harris missed the first three games. Harris missed the last few. There were two games where they both played. If you just look at the numbers, the carries were pretty similar, but if you dig into the box scores, they were both blowout wins, and Harris was

clearly the lead running back. In the two games they played before either garbage time or before Harris left with an injury, Harris had 27 carries and Michel had eight. So they went with him over Sonny Michel last year. I think that is important to note. It's not super evident if you just look at the numbers, but wanted to point that out. Like the whole one-two punch thing,

this is a combo team when it comes to running the football this is there's no one two punch here they've got a one two a three a four and maybe a five touching the football in the out of the backfield so they can a one two punch is fine if it's one guy gonna catch 60 passes and then can run it 80 times and he can be good for PPR. A 1-2 combination where James White is doing the passing work

and somebody else is probably going to steal three or four touchdowns. Maybe Cam Newton's going to steal eight to ten touchdowns. Right. It's just there's no appeal at all as this team's currently

constructed for me to draft Harris or Sonny Michel. I'm not sure if there will be weeks where Cam isn't the leading rusher. But wait. Just attempts. But wait, there's more. 10 or 12 attempts.

They drafted Mac Jones. You weren't on the show on Saturday. It would be surprising if Mac Jones was under center week one. It's possible. I agree. But let's go to the next news item. San Francisco thought Trey Lance was more ready to play in 2021 than Mac Jones.

Which is a little surprising. Ridiculous. Ridiculous. He has almost no experience. I know Mac Jones doesn't have a ton of experience, but at least Mac Jones played at Alabama, won the national championship. Trey Lance played at a different level and didn't play last year. It could be that San Francisco doesn't ever think Mac Jones is going to be ready to play quarterback. Maybe.

Maybe, but I don't think it's going to take too much for Cam Newton. Like if one guy is never going, then another guy is always going to be closer if he might. Well, if the 49ers really feel that way, then Jimmy Garoppolo will be a Texan really soon. Or at least not on the 49ers

really, really soon. Okay. Seattle declined on the 49ers really, really soon. Okay. Seattle declined Rashad Penny's fifth-year option. Same situation as Sonny Michel. Yeah. Nick Sirianni likes Kenneth Gainwell, Dave. I didn't get a chance to read the quote you sent me, so would you like to sum it up?

One of the reporters in Philadelphia asked him if Gainwell reminded Sirianni of Naheem Hines. And Sirianni, in a way that only he can do, just went on and on about how similar they were. And at the end, after fawning over him for about two minutes, said, so yeah, I guess you could say that he's going to be our version of Naheem Hines here in Philadelphia. So now you know exactly what the Eagles, and you could have figured it out anyway you didn't need sirianni to spell it out for you but he's going to use gainwell theoretically as a third down guy uh airback type someone who'd be in line for as many

as 80 carries and 50 catches that's what naheem hines has been getting in indianapolis and gain well if he stays healthy he proves he can handle it, he'll get that. And that hurts miles Sanders. Yeah. Do you think it does last year? Boston Scott really was not used much. He had 16 catches in the 12 games he played with miles Sanders. And Sanders, I just think regressed as a pass catcher last year.

And I have a hard time believing that he's going to get that role back. You know, all the talk a year ago was how Sanders was going to be a workhorse. And now it seems like that door is closed. Well, but the fine workhorse. Someone who's playing 75% of the snaps, getting a healthy dose of targets on top of carries each week. Well, I know this is one of the main guy, but not. I mean, he's clearly going to split here.

I've got him projected for exactly... Now, these are 17-game numbers, so don't let this number jump out at you too much. But I have him projected for exactly 300 touches this year. Which is, I don't know, with a per-game... That's 17.6 touches per game for Miles Sanders? Yeah, I'm going to take the under on that.

I think it could be close to it. It could be right around 15. Wouldn't surprise me if he's at 13 carries a game, 14 carries a game, one or two catches a game. I had so much conviction last year with Miles Sanders. Me too. I loved him. I just don't know. Their line was obviously a mess last year. miles sanders so good i loved him i just don't know i don't know

look their line was obviously a mess last year should be much better i don't know what jalen hurts does for miles sanders you know he basically you want to say he ran so well with jalen hurts no he didn't he had one huge run other than that he didn't he wasn't very efficient at all and that's kind of the season for sanders year. Like the Raiders with Josh Jacobs, I think the Philadelphia coaching staff has reason to question whether Miles Sanders can be a full workhorse back. He was given about six or seven games of that in 2019 and suffered an injury

and he only made it through 12 games last year. I think he's had four injuries in two years, two in training camp and two during the season. Yep. Okay, next news item. Just the Eagles didn't do what the Raiders did to try and fix up their run game. To me, Kenyon Drake is a threat to Josh Jacobs.

Gainwell is not a big enough threat to Miles Sanders. Yeah, okay. Postpone. Ten minutes. We'll get there we'll get that's fine uh aaron rogers was apparently not happy about the team releasing jake kumaro that apparently was the nail in the coffin he liked kumaro they released him after he praised him and jake kumaro is going to bring down the packers empire i like i want to say something about this because i've seen a lot of that on twitter and it's like it's clear that there are lots of teams, Tampa Bay being the most shining example, that just really involve their franchise quarterbacks in decision making.

It's not Jake Kummerow. It's that they never value his opinion about anything. They seem to view him as an employee. And he wants to be part of the decision-making process. And he should be. Should he be? And is he not? He might be. I don't

know that I'm going to say they never involve him in anything. I don't know. I don't feel like he feels like his opinion is valued enough. Well, that does seem pretty clear and deshaun watson was the same thing right he was russell wilson was the same thing yeah russell wilson too and a lot of it is like the i think some of it probably comes from what these guys have seen happen in the nba but i think a lot of it has to come from what happened with tom brady

last offseason like he went to a new team where he built no credit at all other than the fact that he's the GOAT. And they just said, anything you want. Gronk, sure. Antonio Brown, sure. Leonard Fournette, LaShawn McCoy, sure. Geo, yeah, why not?

Whatever you want. And they won a Super Bowl. Right. Yeah. That's what they all want. They all want to win. They all think that they can help bring in friends of theirs to put together a super bowl run you think he's going

to be on the packers this year the gm's the gm no i don't and and i think the gm's are like no i want to build this thing you know gutenkoos has been waiting his whole life to run a team and now he's running it it's not pretty but i don't think that he's in a position to just hand everything over to Aaron Rodgers and say, okay, Aaron, let's go get all your friends. He wants to have a say in how this team is shaped too. Not a good job.

I still kind of think Trey Lance is going to be a packer. What'd you say, Heath? I still kind of think Trey Lance is going to be a packer. Nope. I think drafting Jordan Love and A.J. Dillon was weird, but you can't argue. They've had

a success. They've been very good. They've made some smart decisions. Why have they been good? Well, of course. Of course. Two years ago when they went out and they got the Smiths, that was

big. That's why they made the NFC title game? No, of course it's Aaron Rodgers. Of course it's Aaron Rodgers. But Aaron Jones was a great pick. I don't remember exactly what was Guttenkust, how long he's been there. Aaron Jones was a steal. They've built an offensive line that's very good.

I know they lost Corey Lindsley. Hopefully they replace him. They drafted a guy. The center. Yeah, who's pretty good. Yep. Jair Alexander is great. They've done some good things.

Yeah, well, they've done one bad thing. They've pissed off their all-pro quarterback who is coming off of an MVP season. Doesn't he seem a little prickly, though? I don't think it's... Doesn't you feel that way, too? Adam, you've won the podcast host of the year award right imagine if cbs sports hired um you know the next great

podcast host to just sit and wait in the wings and maybe they have hi frank stanfield uh and to like just wait until your contract is over and then when your contract is over they're just gonna like kick you right in the face and you go out and then you're going to be working for, you know, Adam Mazer fantasy stats.net. I don't think you can blame them for drafting a quarterback. I don't think,

you know, they did that with Aaron Rogers. They did that with Aaron Rogers. I mean, they did that with Favre and Rogers. So how can you blame them? Worked out really nicely for those three. It sounds like everybody got along really well.

It worked out in the long run. Did it not? They went from one Hall of Famer to another and they've had... They got one Super Bowl each. That's more than most people. It's not Eli Manning, but it's more than most people. Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman said the Ravens will expand

their passing game this season. Okay. Okay. Yeah. We've spent a lot of time talking about that. So we talked about Lamar Jackson a lot yesterday. So let's move on to the rankings, the running back rankings, and want to let you know first about what's on CBS Sports HQ this week.

As always, CBS Sports HQ is your home to start your sports news day with live updates kicking off each morning at 8 a.m. Eastern, and HQ is always your home ahead of the evening's action with live picks from the best analysts and handicappers in the sports world each day at 6 p.m. Eastern.

You may be thinking it's a quiet time in sports with the NFL draft over, but you're wrong. Champions League week on HQ. In fact, it's the second leg of the semis, and that means we'll have wall-to-wall coverage Tuesday and Wednesday, including the latest news, the analysis, the picks, lots of picks around both match days. So check out HQ on your computer, on CBSSports.com, or via the CBS Sports app on your mobile phone or TV.

It is always free, and it's always on. Guys, we cannot go deep dive into all of these players. So let's see what we can hit here and some we can spend more time on than others. But Dave, you have Miles Sanders 18th in PPR. Heath, you have him 11th. We did just touch on this. Heath, is there anything you'd like to add?

I think this would be a good one to compare with the next one because I think I have Antonio Gibson where Dave has Miles Sanders and almost vice versa. Okay. And I could see, like, Sanders is in a group where I could pretty easily get him down to 13 or 14 and not feel bad about it, about ranking him there. But like I said, I still think Kenneth Gainwell is a part-time player. And Miles Sanders has been wildly efficient when he touches the football. And so I think

he's still... What's that? YPC for life. That's right. I have a hard time imagining Antonio Gibson's going to touch the ball more than Miles Sanders does. I'm not sure he's going to catch the ball more than Miles Sanders does. I'll not sure he's going to catch the ball more than Miles Sanders does.

I'll take Sanders. I think he's more efficient and he gets more touches. I think Gibson's got room to improve. This is off of a double digit touchdown season. I think he can improve as a pass catcher. That was one of his best traits when he came out of school. We didn't really get a chance to see it.

He did well enough behind the offensive line in Washington, which was a pretty ragtag group. That group should be better up front. And I think this team still wants to run the football a decent amount. I think that their passing game could force safeties back a little bit of the time with Fitzpatrick there and some other additions they made. It does hurt Antonio Gibson that Curtis Samuel signed up and that JD McKissick is still there.

That could cost them the chance at maybe 45 catches, but it wouldn't surprise me if he had 35 to 40 catches. I think that's pretty close to what he had last year. I don't have it in front of me, but I imagine that he'll be these guys. Interestingly enough, Adam, they were back to back in PPR points per game,

Gibson ahead of Sanders. I think Gibson's got the chance to be a little bit better. I think Sanders has a chance to be a little bit worse. Maybe I'm overreacting to that a little bit by ranking Gibson as high as I have him, but I do like him. And I think he's got a chance to be a contributor in the passing game and a big time playmaker when it comes to scoring touchdowns and I guess like the touchdowns thing will be the interesting part because when I hear that they were back

to back in fantasy points per game and Antonio Gibson scored 11 touchdowns on 206 touches and miles sanders scored six on 192 i would think well sanders is probably going to score more next year and and gibson's probably is going to score fewer touchdowns so he's going to have to improve just to stay on the same level as sanders well he'll have to improve somewhere in order to stay on the same level he He had 36 catches last year. 44 targets, that's it, for Antonio Gibson. I imagine that number going up. Only two running backs last year had 50 or more targets and no receiving touchdowns. Miles Sanders was one.

I do not think there's a chance in hell you guys will get the other. The other running back with 50 or more targets and no touchdowns, no receiving touchdowns. I never would have gotten it. In fact, I'm going to just confirm that it's... Austin Eckler. Correct. What?

No. Whoa, I thought you said correct Austin Eckler. Eckler had two touchdowns. Yeah, no, that's correct. It was Devin Singletary. They both... I mean, they both had 52 targets, which is basically a little bit...

How about this? Kareem Hunt had 51 targets. He caught five touchdowns. Sanders and Singletary had 52 and no touchdowns. No receiving touchdowns. Alright, so there's Antonio Gibson versus Miles Sanders. Next up, Najee Harris. This is why we're here, right? Najee

Harris, everyone, Dave, Jamie, Heath, they all have Harris ranked 15th or 16th in the rankings. And that is behind for Dave Swift and Gibson. For Heath, behind Swift, not behind Gibson, but behind Jacobs, which I thought was interesting. But only one spot behind Jacobs. But I think Najee Harris,

let me just make the case for Najee Harris as a first round pick. Should be a workhorse. Here it is. Well, I think it's a pretty valid case. I do think there are a lot of running backs that have a case for first-round pick. They can't all be there. But should be a workhorse.

Mike Tomlin loves workhorse backs. Usually his running backs average 18 or more carries per game. I'll try to get the exact stats. He's had four or five guys finish top five in his tenure. Le'Veon Bell, Rashard Mendenhall, and James Conner. Four or five times. It's been three guys. We know the situation.

And even though they have a bad offensive line, they've had a bad offensive line actually in terms of run blocking grades for a little while now, and it didn't really prevent James Conner from being very effective when he's been healthy. I think the work is unquestioned, and he can work in the passing game as well.

I think he's got a great chance. I think he's got a great chance to be an every-down-back-in-the-top-12 player. I think the question is how many targets does he get? Because I believe the running back targets dried up a little bit last year. They had 80 for the entire team combined. Those aren't all going to go to one running back by any stretch.

So I don't know that the volume that was there for Le'Veon Bell and the volume that was there for James Conner for a year and a half or so is there potentially for Najee Harris unless they really change the offense? And maybe they will. I think it's obvious they did not like the way they looked last year. You fire your offensive coordinator and you draft a running back in the first round.

They could not run the ball last year and they completely abandoned it basically in the second half of the season. So to me, that tells me they know they need to get back to their roots. Yeah. He's not going to catch Le'Veon Bell. He's not gonna have Le'Veon Bell catches and James Connor in 2018 had 55 catches in 13 games. So I don't see that being his pace either, but I do think he can get close to 50 in a 16 game season. So let's say 53 or whatever in a 17-game season. And here's the stat. Mike Tomlin's 14th season.

I gave this out on last Friday. Mike Tomlin's 14 seasons as head coach. A Pittsburgh lead running back has averaged 15 or more carries 11 times, 18 or more carries 8 times in 14 seasons. So that's just the case. But I do think you can make a case for the players ranked ahead of him as well. So I don't think it's crazy to have him ranked where you have him, but I don't know. I do think that if issue. I think it's an overcomable issue with Harris. Although, let's face facts, the offensive line he ran behind at Alabama was really, really good.

So I don't know how much of that was necessarily something that benefited Harris in college. But he's physical, he's tough, and he's a good pass catcher. So when I heard you say 50 catches, I thought, yeah, that's something I think he could do over 17 games, if you were to say healthy for 17 games. The other thing that I do like about Harris, and this is just something that's more 50,000-foot view, is he's been a top running back prospect since he was in high school. Ballyhooed and celebrated every step of the way. He's mature. He knows everything about the running back position.

He's not as inexperienced as somebody like Javante Williams, for example, who was a linebacker in high school until his last year. So I think the Steelers got somebody who they could certainly build their running game around. But if teams study what the steelers offense was last year i i think it's going to be easy for them to you know load up against the run because a lot of those passes that rothlisberger threw they were short they

were easy as long as the defensive backs can wrap up the receiver they're going to be able to get some punts load up against the run when you have Deontay Johnson, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Chase Claypool. How often were those guys targeted 15 plus yards down? They're going to be different.

I do. Okay, maybe that's where we differ. Yes, I think they can and I think they will be different. They hated their offense. They didn't like their offense last year.

Right, well, their quarterback isn't different and their quarterback may have been dealing with some arm issues because he's almost 40 years old and he's had surgery on it so i'm to me it all starts with roethlisberger and not the offensive line if roethlisberger isn't fresh and ready to throw deep for 17 games i'm nervous i'm nervous about what this offense will look like and if they try and change it say, we're going to mix in more deep balls,

that doesn't mean that they're going to necessarily connect on them all. There's a lot of research that needs to be done here. I like Harris, and I think the opportunity is there for him to get a lot of work. That's why he's in the mix as a top 15 or 16 fantasy running back. I think you might be stretching it a little bit, especially given how many other running backs that actually look pretty damn good this year. Why would I stretch for Harris when I can go and get another really good running ahead of Deandre Swift,

Antonio Gibson. You're going to tell me that they are clearly better than, than Harris. Forget about them. Cause I don't think anybody has either of them in the top 10 running backs. No, but you guys have Gibson ahead of Harris.

And if we're talking about as a first round pick, you're not going to take nauseee Harris ahead of Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill, or Travis Kelsey, are you? No. Okay, so now you've got to get him in the top nine running backs to get in the first round. It's a little easier to do in a non-PPR league to do that. Agreed.

And if Aaron Rodgers gets traded, then all bets are off with Adams. Yeah, and non-PPR, I'd still take Tyreek over Harris for sure, and Kelsey. But, yeah, I mean, it's not... I think you could argue that Swift-Gibson range of does maybe he deserve to be a top 12 running back. But I don't think he's going to get into the top nine. I also think fantasy managers might be a little gun-shy

to take a rookie running back after what happened to last year's first-run rookie running back. Yeah, to last year's first round rookie running back. Yeah. But two running backs finished top six last year. And here's one, one of them was found in round 17. It doesn't, that wouldn't matter to me,

but here's one more argument for rookies in general. I do think the 17 game season helps. And I don't know that it's going to matter for Harris because he's going to get big work right out of the gate. But with a lot of the rookie running backs and with the rookie wide receivers, they almost always get off to slow starts. So having an extra week of good production could help. What if we had an extra week of Jonathan Taylor? What if we had an extra week of DeAndre Swift, extra week of Antonio Gibson, Justin Jefferson? I think it's going to help the rookies, but

it won't matter for Harris because he'll be the workhorse out of the gate. His competition stinks, too. They're not taking him off the field for those guys. 100%. But Travis Etienne's a different story. Everybody's got him as a low-end, I guess it's called a low-end number two option right now, 19th to 23rd overall in full PPR, 19th to 23rd. So, Heath, how did you arrive on your ranking of travis etn he's one of the guys i actually boosted above his projection i think his projection had him

around 27th or 28th um but there's too much upside to rank him that low so i just basically moved him to the top of the guys like right after miles gaskin um and you've got. You've got a group of running backs, Mike Davis, Chase Edmonds, Melvin Gordon, Raheem Mostert, James Conner. Those guys could all be better than Travis Etienne this year, but I would rather, and I thought Kareem Hunt did that as well, I'd rather go with Etienne.

It does kind of sound like their current plan for ETN's role is the same as what Kareem Hunt's has been. But I can't imagine that lasts more than a month. And then what happens after that? That's an example of why that 17-game season could help Travis ETN. Right. I would assume he's going to earn more and more work. Listen, the only thing I give hesitation about that is it's a 17-game season.

And so I think we'll see more teams that don't want to give any running back 18 touches a game. And James Robinson is good. And so if he's averaging four and a half yards per carry and having success in his role, maybe it doesn't change that much.

He's good, but I don't know if he fits into what they want all the time at running back so he might be wedged into the we're ready to run between the tackles we're ready to kill the clock we're ready to score a touchdown because we're at the goal line that's something that robinson can do but i think etn do. But I think ETN could evolve into Jacksonville's version of Alvin Kamara, where he's out in space and they get him the ball and they feed him the ball to make explosive plays. And it's a lot of the same stuff that he was doing at Clemson. And that offense is going to be, I'm going to say this every time we talk about him and Lawrence until the season starts, they know this offense. They're already familiar with it. Conceptually, there might be things different here and there,

but this is going to work really nicely for ETN. And I think he's a candidate for 40 plus receptions, which is great for him. And I think his playing time, it wouldn't surprise me if he was getting 10 carries per game, working on the outside edges, trying to win the edge and pick up a block and turn a three or or four-yard play for James Robinson into a 15-yard play for ETN because he's got that type of explosiveness.

And people are going to be after him on draft day. People are going to want him. So if you're putting him behind the likes of Myles Gaskin, for example, you're never going to get him. If you're drafting Gaskin before ETN, you're never going to get him. And there is enough upside there in this offense where i think etn is going to be worth the squeeze of an early fourth round pick go ahead of you man there was a miles gaskin slander there i need to address but um i don't oh you said one of the

things you said was that they know this offense they go in knowing exactly what they and i think maybe it'd be good to expand on that a little bit sure because you look at it we've got urban meyer as a head coach neither of them played for meyer you've got um their offensive coordinator daryl bevel's been in the nfl for a long time not running clemson's offense so like what you think when looking at their tendencies it'd be better to look at what they did at Clemson than what Meyer or Beville has done? I wouldn't look at anything Beville's done. I don't think Urban Meyer is handing

off the offense to Daryl Beville and saying, let's run what you've been doing. I think he's got Beville there to take Urban Meyer's offense and make it more adaptable to the pro game. Do you think Dabo Swinney's offense is a replica of Urban Meyer's offense?

I think, I think, whose offense? You think Clemson's offense was a replica of Urban Meyer's offense? Not exactly, but it's a lot of shotgun runs, a lot of, you know, running back is right next to the quarterback in shotgun, a lot of spread formations, a lot of quick throws, quick decisions,

a lot of stuff that we saw from Ohio State and then from Florida even before that. And my guess is that that's what we're going to see is that up-tempo approach from Jacksonville. And honestly, it's what Trevor Lawrence has been running since he was in high school. Go back and watch some of his high school highlights and games, whatever you can find. He's in shotgun the whole time. He's throwing passes off to the sidelines after the snap a decent the whole time. He's throwing passes off to the sidelines after the snap a decent amount of time. He's throwing slants a bunch of the time. That's what this offense is going to be. It's definitely going to be a little bit geared toward what Clemson did, but it's going to have a lot of the same principles that Urban Meyer's had.

They didn't hire Urban Meyer to pass off his acumen for the offense to Darryl Bevel. They're building this thing to make it comfortable for Trevor Lawrence, and it just so happens that they were able to get ETN, and it's going to be comfortable for him, too. So I think the learning curve, like I said this for Burrow last year, it's going to be flattened for Lawrence. He'll be ready to go for week one. In this case, the running back will be, too.

It's going to be an easier learning curve for ETN than it will be for James Robinson. And ETN's a better fit than James Robinson. Okay. I didn't know if Heath was going to hop on there. So, ETN, you said 40 catches. I'd

be pretty disappointed with that. How many did you project him for, Heath? 49. He's got the chance. Would you think he has the chance for 60-70? Yes. A lot of upside. Last time I projected a rookie running back to get 70 catches, he had

under 40. It's going to be a little conservative on the catches. Swift had 46 in 13 games last year. Who were you talking about? Gibson. Oh, Gibson. Okay. Swift had 46 in 13 games last year. Who were you talking about? Gibson. Oh, Gibson, okay. Swift had 46 in 13 games,

so he was on pace for 57 catches in 16 games. And yeah, maybe Etienne could get to 60 or something like that. A lot of upside, but James Robinson did a really nice job, so you've got to say there's some downside with Travis Etienne as well. Let's talk about Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis then,

because they're both ranked behind Travis Etienne. Gaskin is slightly ahead of Davis, but you're basically looking at the back end of the top 24. Etienne, Gaskin, Davis. It's not 22, 23, 24, but it's fairly close to that. So, Dave, Gaskin versus Davis,'s, it's almost even, but you, you both have Gaskin slightly ahead and you both have them as low at number two guys. I think he'll be better equipped to handle a full season's word. Well, I can't say that

cause he got hurt last year, but I think he's got the chance to catch more passes and do a little bit better in the Dolphins offense than Davis will. I'm turned off by Davis slowing down last year in Carolina when he had the opportunity with McCaffrey. You know, he came out like gangbusters as the starter there. And then I could look it up, but he was not strong down the stretch for Carolina. And that makes me a little bit nervous. I also think that the Falcons have kind of made it clear what their offense is going

to look like. They kept Matt Ryan. They added Kyle Pitts. So far, Julio Jones is still on the team and their only significant change or running back is Davis. I don't see them doing, I see them being a full one 80 of what Arthur Smith did with the Titans offense. Gaskin got a lot of playing time with the Dolphins last year.

Usually when he played, it was a minimum of 60% of the snaps, caught a decent amount of passes as well. And I think he's got a chance to be useful. I don't know if there's somebody on the Dolphins roster that's going to knock him out. Not that I think there's anybody on the Falcons roster that's going to knock out Davis, but I think he'll be more effective

and productive for fantasy. Yeah, I think we're all too low on Myles Gaskin. The numbers on Davis real quick, sorry. First three games without McCaffrey, this is what Dave was alluding to. First three games without McCaffrey, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry, was on pace for 117 catches,

scored 22 or more points in PPR in all three games. That's elite. First top five pick. Last nine games without Christian McCaffrey. And remember, there was one game where McCaffrey came back against the Chiefs. But removing that, the last nine games without McCaffrey,

he averaged 3.55 yards per carry, was on pace for 46 catches, two games with more than 11 PPR fantasy points. That is bad. The schedule did get a lot tougher, but what does that mean? That we're never going to want to start him against any decent opponent. And when you sit there and you say, well, there's nobody on the team they would ever replace him for. And I said that about Najee Harris, so I don't want to be a hypocrite. But just generally speaking, I found that that's just less true than we might think it is. And all you have to do is look at Todd Gurley.

Did we ever think that no matter how bad Todd Gurley was, that he would get benched for Brian Hill and Ido Smith? You know, these things happen. And for Gaskin, let me just read you what the ESPN.com Dolphins writer wrote. His draft question for the Dolphins post-draft question was, Will Myles Gaskin be the lead running back again? The hope was the Dolphins would draft one of the three top-tier running backs, but all three went off the board before the team's number 36 pick.

Blah, blah, blah. Gaskin surprisingly took over the Dolphins' lead role last year with moderate success, but there is room for an upgrade. Gaskin struggled to stay the Dolphins' lead role last year with moderate success, but there is room for an upgrade. Gaskin struggled to stay healthy for the full season. It's true. Yeah, and I don't know. I mean, I know he was good because he cut a lot of passes, but I think he was mostly good because of volume.

And Sivan Ahmed and Malcolm Brown could be a bigger factor than we think. So, Heath, you say we're too low on Miles Gaskin. Why do you say that? Well, I just think if we're going to talk about upside with running backs in this range, we should acknowledge the upside that Myles Gaskin showed us last year. Like he is seven of his final eight games. You don't look at the last game of the season. That's whatever.

But like he was averaging 20 touches a game. He was on pace for 1,700 yards and 10 touchdowns. And he was really mostly very good. So he's shown us if they use him in that role this year, he's probably going to be a top 12 fantasy running back. If he stays healthy. And if I could just make it true for all of them, of course, but with we're talking about Gaskin who missed some time last year,

he only ended up playing in 10 games to, if I can make you warm. Yeah, he didn't miss two for COVID, but that's true. He would have. Right. So theoretically he wouldn't have that this year.

First six games, he averaged 13 PPR points per game. That's pretty good. It's not great. Did you check out his last two games? The last two games of the season includes week 17 obviously 50 ppr points combined in those last two games that's a third of his total from the year i don't know if that means great he ended the year strong or uh he was a you know he only was able to put up big numbers when it didn't

really matter for fantasy matter to mattered to the Dolphins. They were fighting for a playoff spot. I don't know how to necessarily take that and say if it's a positive or a negative. But I don't know. I don't know if I've got a follow-up to that. But it's something that stood out to me, that a third of his fantasy points came in the last two weeks of the season. Well, he also, you could say his last three games, because week 13 against Cincinnati had 141 total yards. He certainly produced, man.

But let me give you another stat. Tell me if you care about this. Tua Tungavailoa threw 15.4% of his passes to running backs. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 21.4%. Now, to get this number, I eliminated the two games in which Tua was replaced by Fitzpatrick. So I just looked at seven starts and finishes for Fitz, seven starts and finishes for Tua. A lot of Gaskin's catches came with Fitzpatrick.

He was much more likely to throw to running backs. I can't say that Tua is going to keep that tendency in year two, but that is what happened in year one. How are we classifying throws to Lynn Bowden? Not at running back. I did not count Lynn Bowden. Yeah. Yeah. And I shouldn't have, right?

I mean, he wasn't playing running back. He lined up in a variety of places. I don't know which of his targets were as a running back and which of his targets were as a wide receiver. I'm fine with you not including Bowden. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know if that matters.

I don't think it matters. It doesn't really matter to me. But it matters that if the Dolphins so choose this year, they can play Gaskin and Bowden at the same time, which they did at points last season. Also, a large chunk of Tua's time

as a starter was when Myles Gaskin wasn't on the field. Also true. He had five or more targets in three of his last four games, which I think were all with Tua. So, well, partially. Tua would start the game and get benched

because he wasn't as good as Ryan Fitzpatrick. Right, and I did have to take those games out. He wasn't as good. Okay, let's move on then. Well, so, hold on. Let me do one more. Let me just look at the rankings here. Would you rather have Myles Gaskin or, and let's go to our next one, Chase Edmonds.

And you guys all have Chase Edmonds ranked ahead of James Conner. So first, Gaskin or Edmonds? I got Gaskin ahead of Edmonds. Why Edmonds ahead of Conner? And by the way, everybody in PPR, Jamie, Dave, they all have Gaskin. They all have Edmonds ahead of Conor in PPR. In non-PPR, Dave and Jamie still have Conor. No, still have Edmonds ahead.

Heath has Conor ahead in non-PPR. But in full PPR, Heath, why is everybody on the Edmonds train? I think he's going to catch a lot more passes than James Conor. That's obviously the separator for me. I think it's a more interesting discussion in non-PPR, but I also think that Chase Edmonds at this stage of their careers is more explosive than James Conner. And when he does run the ball,

it's probably going to be in situations that aren't as obvious of run situations. So he will probably have a larger or a bigger yards per carry just because it'll be more in passing downs. I do worry just a little bit that Edmonds, that I haven't factored in Rondale Moore's impact on Edmonds enough yet. Because I do think there's a chance Rondale Moore takes some of the targets and some of the routes that Edmonds had last year. Why would you rank Edmonds ahead

when he had 53 catches, Kenyon Drake had 25, and Drake walloped him in PPR. Drake was RB15 and Edmonds was RB25. Touchdowns were a big reason for that. Do you think Connor will have the same role as Drake?

When he's healthy, yeah. I don't know how healthy he's going to be. That's been a reason for that. But do you think Connor will have the same role as Drake? Or do you think it'll be more of a split? When he's healthy, yeah. I don't know how healthy he's going to be. That's been a problem for Connor the past few seasons. And he could play 17 games this year. Things happen. It's the NFL.

But I also believe that the Cardinals are kind of ready to give Chase Edmonds a little bit more work. He brought up the catches that he had last year. And Adam, you said it. 53 catches, 67 targets. That was when he was playing less than half the snaps. Chase Edmonds played 48.5% of the snaps last year. So right there, I think that goes up.

Even with Connor there, even if Connor looks good in the preseason, I think Edmonds plays more snaps. The problem is that we can't really say that there's a lot of evidence that Chase Edmonds can do great things with a lot of work. We have seen it. There've been a couple of games over the past two years where because of injuries, Edmonds is basically the last man standing. The Cardinals write him. He puts up good numbers. I think there's probably some hesitation in having him do that from week to week. I think that's part of the reason why they got Connor. They were obviously comfortable enough with Connor to pair with Edmonds that they didn't bother trying to draft anybody else.

But there's still Kyler Murray there. And Murray scored a bunch of red zone touchdowns last year. And Chase Edmonds has one career carry inside the five-yard line. So I like him significantly better. I don't know if it's a lot better and certainly more than Connor. I like him better in PPR for the obvious reasons. He can catch 50 balls. lot better and certainly more than connor i like him better in ppr for the obvious reasons he can catch 50 balls and i think after having 850 total yards last year i think you can get to over a

thousand total yards this year but i do worry about those leagues where catches don't count how many touchdowns is he really lost but you have him ahead of connor in that format too i understand and because i think that he's got the better chance to rack up more total yards than connor does the only way connor will catch him is if he has double digit touchdowns. And I'm not, I'm, I don't have projections for the Cardinals, but I don't think Connor quite gets there.

Yeah. I have James Connor projected for 8.2 touchdowns and 6.5 for Edmonds. Worth noting that that's a difference of 14 or 12 fantasy points if i'm just rounding them to whole numbers kenyan drake had 10 rushing touchdowns last year and much of them came after he was much better after kyler murray got injured because that's when murray stopped running as much and drake benefited from it fact, it was the last seven games. He was a top 13 running back. The first eight games, he was not in the top 20.

I know we always give credit to Kyle Murray on this show for how good he was before he got hurt. And that being his true upside. But do we worry about the fact that he got hurt and ran less after he got hurt might encourage them to have him run less this year then you would have expected them to do more to address their run game than add james connor after subtracting kenyan drake they added rondale more too but he isn't going to get a ton of carries he will he's going to help kyler in a completely different way than what the running backs are

going to do what i think what i think the cardinals offseason told us is that they're going to continue to build around kyler what I think the Cardinals off season told us is that they're going to continue to build around Kyler and Rondell is a direct correlation to building around Kyler as a passer, right? His types of targets replace runs. Yeah. Which is great for Kyler and it'll be good for Rondo more.

It'll suck for Connor and chase Edmonds. What was the week that Kyler got hurt? The Seahawks game. 11 against Seattle? Was it that late in the year? I think it was eight games of each, so I want to say it was week nine? I think it was a little later than that. It was the second Seattle game

to have that. That was week 11. Yeah, Dave. Nailed it. So, from week 12 on, yeah, the rush attempts were pretty much, I mean, there were 23,

31, 39, 41, six, right. 6.6 rush attempts per game. Whereas in the first 10 games or first 10 weeks, I should say 9.7 rush attempts.

You guys are counting. Rush attempts went down. His rushing averages went down. He scored one rushing touchdown. Yeah. And his passing was worse too. Yes, it was. His rushing average just went down. He scored one rushing touchdown. And his passing was worse, too. Yes, it was. His passing's kind of mediocre in the first place.

Not if you look at before the injury. It was at least his numbers. I mean, you're talking about, what, 4,100 yards? I don't remember what it was, but he was terrific. He was the number one quarterback in fantasy. I think Hopkins had a lot to do with it. Yeah, but a lot of that had to do with his rushing for him to be the number one quarterback in fantasy.

He's a good passer. And adding Rondell Moore should help him quite a bit. All right, we've got to take a break. And we have not talked about Javante Williams. We haven't talked that much about Michael Carter. So, Trey Sermon as well. When we come back, we'll finish up with those three rookies on Fantasy Football today.

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and money click before you dig ensure your next project is safe visit ontarioonecall.ca it's free it's easy it's the law data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Welcome back to the show, everybody. Just a few more running backs to get to. And the Champions League is close to crowning a champion with the second leg of the semifinals this week. The Kegelazzo podcast provides previews, recaps, analysis, and betting tips for Champions League and Europa League.

So listen in as the team chats with UEFA Team insiders to give their picks on which team takes home the Champions League title. Follow K. Golazzo wherever you find this podcast. So let's talk about the Broncos. Dave, you have Melvin Gordon and Javante Williams back-to-back. Heath, you have Melvin Gordon pretty far ahead

of Javante Williams. Dave, first word, Gordon and Williams back-to-back. I hate that I've got Gordon ahead of Williams, but I think I've got it there because I think Melvin's got a chance to be the lead guy to begin the season and then still have a big enough piece of it by the midseason and the end of the season. The only real way that Javante Williams is going to be like a heavy volume stud is if Melvin Gordon misses time. Broncos made it clear. They love Javante Williams. They raved about him after the draft and every team raves about every prospect after the draft. But they also said, we envision us using multiple

running backs all the time. And they have Mike Boone. So they might end up using three guys in that backfield. And Melvin is probably still somebody that they will trust in short yardage goal line situations. And even though Javante Williams was considered a very good pass protector coming out of UNC, I think it's going to take some time for the Broncos to commit to him working in that role, even though Melvin Gordon wasn't really that good at it.

I think it's going to be a mess. I'm half tempted to avoid the entire Broncos run game just because there's going to be so much mixing and matching, but I do love the talent of Javante Williams, and that's probably the reason why I've got him ranked as high as I do is because I just think the talent is there, and I've usually learned to just trust talent in a situation like this, but as Heath has pointed out many a time,

Melvin Gordon wasn't bad. In the past couple of years, he's averaged 75 total yards per game. He's had nine touchdowns at minimum each of those past two years. He just hasn't been consistent for fantasy. It's hard to imagine him being good and consistent if he's getting less work because because Javante Williams is there. Yeah, I mean, I think it's a committee that Javante Williams is the second part of as long as Melvin Gordon is healthy. And then if Melvin Gordon gets hurt, I think he's going to be the head of a committee,

but he's still going to be in a committee. I don't think he's necessarily a full-time back. I'm not sure he's on a team that really wants a full-time back. Exactly. They've said as much. They don't want it. Now, there's always the caveat that well what if melvin gordon is just and mike boone is just and giovante williams is amazing they're not going to purposely put an amazing player on the bench 50 of the time they're going to ride them but that's what that's what we need to have happen for giovante williams to

be a reliable fantasy running back you're drafting him if you're drafting him before round six you're in or even in round six you're kind of projecting a little that he's just going to overtake and move melvin gordon who's been a reliable for NFL purposes, a reliable running back, just completely move him off the chessboard. To be clear, a much better running back prospect when he came out than Javante Williams. He came out, he's in his sixth season, though. 28 years old.

And Javante's just turned 21. I think you need to be consistent here. He just had his second best year. YPC for life. Yeah, he did. But he wasn't a pass catcher like he was with the Chargers. No, which was surprising, if not disappointing. You know what? I can't help but say this, and I feel like a lot of people feel this way

or will feel this way. I'm waiting for Melvin Gordon to just fade away. I feel like it's about to happen, you know, and it happens so quickly with running backs. Devante Freeman, Todd Gurley. It happens so quickly, and I just feel like Melvin Gordon is next. I've got a bad feeling about it.

I wouldn't say I feel like that's going to happen. I've got a bad feeling that he could be next. I don't think anybody's saying to draft him as a top 25 running back. It's more about Williams, because if that does happen, then I think Williams is one of those players that could be one of those two running backs that finishes, two rookie running backs that finishes top 12.

It's just he needs Melvin Gordon to fade away. To fade. Yeah. Right. And if he doesn't fade away, then he's going to get work. Yeah. We've already talked about it. How?

Yeah. I am not... Mike Boone is not a threat. What are you looking for when you draft Melvin Gordon? What are you hoping to have happen? I'm not drafting him. So he gets off to a good start for your team. I think that's...

Honestly, I think that's all you can really ask for when you draft him. I'm not drafting... Which is why I don't think he's a good round six pick. The splits when Phillip Lindsay was healthy were not encouraging. They just did not get enough work. So I don't think I want to draft him.

And I don't think... Yeah, I don't know. I'm drafting him if I go 0RB. I don't want this committee. You could make a good argument for Javante Williams if he was going to be an eighth-round pick, like the clear second running back in Denver. That's not the way it's going to be drafted.

Where do you think he'll end up getting drafted? Why is this different than Dobbins? Why is this different from Dobbins? like the clear second running back in Denver. That's not the way it's going to be drafted. But that's why I was saying... Where do you think he'll end up getting drafted? Why is this different than Dobbins? Why is this different from Dobbins? And that's where Dobbins... Because J.K. Dobbins is a very good running back prospect. But Mark Ingram was coming off a top 10 year. And you knew J.K. Dobbins...

He said there's no way he can replace it. And you knew J.K. Dobbins... And he was 30. Right, but you knew J.K. Dobbins was not going to be involved in the passing game at all. So Williams had 25 catches last year. I don't see... I'm not saying... Yeah, you're right, Heath. I agree

with you. We're actually on the same page. You said you think he's going to get drafted in round six. That's what I think, too. Because I think it's going to be just like Dobbins and Swift and all those guys who... Swift was really not competing with great veterans here, but that's where those guys went last year. And I think that's where Miles Sanders actually ended up two years ago. So I do think that's where Javante Williams is going to end up.

Just a reminder that like JK Dobbins was a much better running back prospect than Javante Williams. Still is. He's a much better, yes. Like we shouldn't, that's not a fair comparison for Javante Williams. I think that you are much lower on Javante Williams than a lot of other people are. You have mentioned his size speed. Yes. However,

we get reports from trusted NFL writers saying that some teams have him as the number one back on their board. A lot of people saying he could be a surprise first round pick. He went where Jonathan Taylor went last year in the draft. So he went earlier than JK Dobbins went. So I went earlier than J.K. Dobbins went. So I like him. I love Dobbins. Dobbins was, when I looked at the stretch he had at Ohio State

against top competition in the stretch of the season, he's rushing for 150 yards every single game. And this guy is a beast. Yeah, I mean, I would say he's a better prospect. But I think that we are probably lower on Javante Williams than a lot of NFL people are. That's the sense I get anyway. I think if you asked NFL people to rank Javante

Williams in last year's class, it would have been a different answer. Yes. That's fair. They would have said the same thing with Najee too. Yeah, maybe. Okay. 49ers. It's very similar to the Broncos. Dave has Mostert and Sermon back-to-back.

Heath has Mostert well ahead. Heath, go ahead. I think I have Sermon and Wilson back-to-back. And I thought I was going to be the Trey Sermon guy before the draft. I just... I still think when Raheem Mostert's been healthy, and I don't know that he's actually suffered

that many more injuries per touch than Jeff Wilson or Trey Sermon has over the last three years. When Mostert's been healthy, he's just been so electric. And so I have to assume he gets the first crack at it, and I don't think he's going to lose it until he gets hurt. And evidence suggests, you could make a pretty good argument that if any of these guys gets 15 touches for six straight weeks, they're very likely to get hurt because that's what their history suggests.

It's what Kyle Shanahan's history suggests too. It's just rotating packs in and out, and he's going to take them out when one gets hurt. He just puts another one in there. There's a lot of digging that I did on this. For example, the 49ers have not had a back-to-back rushing leader under Kyle Shanahan. Last year, it was Wilson. He only had 600 yards. No big deal. Mostert the year before, 772.

Matt Burrito the year before that. So there hasn't necessarily been that type of year-to-year consistency between the running backs. Three running backs under 200 touches in 2018. Three running backs under 160 touches in 2019. Three running backs under 160 touches in 2019, three running backs under 150 touches in 2020, rookie running backs under Kyle Shanahan. No one has had even 200 touches since Alfred Morris. If we count Alfred Morris as being under Kyle Shanahan, you might say that he was under Mike Shanahan, but we're talking about a stop with the Browns, a couple of years with Atlanta, and then the four years in San Francisco. Rookies don't get a lot of work. And Shanahan, this is just the cherry on top.

He hasn't had a single 1,000-yard rusher and has only given any of his running backs over 200 touches with the 49ers. Carlos Hyde did get over 200 in 2017, but even he didn't get 1,000 rushing yards when he did it. It's going to be a mess. It's going to be a mess. It's going to be a hodgepodge. And so if you draft any 49ers running back, you kind of have to make a promise to yourself that you're going to wait it out until this, the running back you chose has an opportunity

to play. The one thing about most of it is you figure he'll, it's almost like Melvin Gordon. He's a zero RB target. You're hoping that he's the lead guy to begin the season. And you just, you write them out until he breaks down or until he stinks and gets replaced, and you go in a different direction. He's not going to stink. I don't think he's going to stink if he's not playing or if he limps off during the game. He was the fastest ball carrier last year.

He ran 23.1 miles per hour. He had the fastest time. Trey Sermon is not fast. I don't know what he would be in the open field because this team blocks very well. They get their running backs to the next level. But he ran very slow. He ran like a 4.6. So, Mostert,

I just, he's good. He's good. And he was the starter last year. And they treated him like the starter at the beginning of the season. He's good. I hope they do it again. And then what did they do after that

when he came back from the injury? I don't think he even had 50% of the snaps in any game. They split with Wilson. But he is the only running back in San Francisco over the past three years to average 15 touches per game.

That's true. So that's why he's probably the one you're targeting if you're desperate for running back help to start the season and i don't have a problem with you getting most or then if sermon's around a couple rounds later you get him too but to me the the sermon pick and remember they drafted two running backs the sermon pick was more of an attack and an indictment on wilson than it was on most it was kind of an indictment on both of them, but it was more on Wilson than it was on Mostert.

I think that's probably the place. I've got Jeff Wilson still projected for like 100-some touches. If he was not part of the equation, then Sermon wouldn't be very far behind Mostert for me at all. Okay. All right, guys. Last one is the Jets. Michael Carter, 28th for

Dave, 36th for Heath. And Heath, you actually have Tevin Coleman on the Jets. You have Tevin Coleman ahead of Michael Carter. is a back that the San Francisco coaches brought with them from San Francisco. I expect he's going to be the starter at the beginning of the year. And again, he'll probably get hurt at some point, but I don't think Carter, when that happens, I think it's going to be a split between Carter and Pirine. I'd be stunned. It's the worst running game in football. It's a bad team that I expect will follow the San Francisco blueprint of using their running backs, which means they're always using two. Only they're probably not going to average five yards per carry as a team.

Yeah, I'm probably a little irrationally excited about Carter. And none of these three guys. Well, maybe. I don't know. Like if you were ranking the six running backs we've talked about from the 49ers and the jets is Carter fourth, maybe third. The one difference is that I think Carter is the best talent in New York. And so maybe there's a chance that he could have a bigger share of the work

than maybe another running back in San Francisco could have over the balance of many, many weeks. I think Mostert's the only one I can definitively say is better than Carter. I can't really be definitive. I've never seen Carter play at this level. But that's the only easy call for me. I mean, Tevin Coleman, I think, stinks.

He's always been basically the second-best running back on his team. And since he had a huge game against Carolina... Some people would say it was Michael Carter. Maybe. But... Yeah, but he was still really damn good when he was the second running back on his team. Kevin Coleman has been garbage since that three-touchdown game

against Carolina in the midseason of 2019. He's been honestly terrible since then. Michael P. Ryan, I don't think we think much of him. But why? You can't be convinced that Trey Sermon is better than Michael Carter. That's a total toss-up. I'm not convinced. I thought Trey Sermon was better

going into the draft. I certainly think Trey Sermon and San Francisco, if they get the same amount of touches, would be a more efficient running back. More efficient running back, but he would be probably completely efficient running back. More efficient running back, but he would be probably completely uninvolved in the passing game, whereas Carter won't be.

I don't think he'll be completely uninvolved. No? I think Sermon can have a role in the passing game. That's one of the things that is nice about Sermon. San Francisco running backs don't really do that though. Not really their thing. I think I'm that, though. Not really their thing.

I think I'm going to look. Not a heavy amount. I think it's because it gets chopped up so much. Okay. They were seventh in running back target rate last year. 24% of their passes went to running backs. Okay. And they threw a decent amount last year,

middle of the pack. They had McKinnon. That helped. And I wouldn't expect the Jets, with all the 49ers coaches, to necessarily throw their running backs more than the 49ers do. I think the Jets could build

a very nice short area passing game with Moore, Crowder, and Carter. And those guys can all work for each other and help each other get open and make plays for each other. help each other get open and make plays for each other and when i say make please i mean like gain seven yards on third and 12 make some plays get some numbers um but i i think carter's a great fit for new york like i would be raving about carter if he had gone to san francisco with the obvious caveat that in san francisco his competition

would be much harder than it is in New York. His competition is weak in New York, and he's a great fit there. That offensive line is getting better. The quarterback play should theoretically be better, but I could also see Zach Wilson lean on Carter. The one thing that Carter is terrible at is pass blocking too. So when it's third and long, he won't be on the field. But when it's third and short or second and long,

I bet you see him on there a decent amount of time, and he's probably going to run a route. And he can do good things on screens. He is very good. His lateral agility is very good. He's got a chance to make plenty of plays after the catch, and he's good at running and making his cut on outside zone. You're going to see him get some good numbers.

Okay. Like, I am hesitant if I want to say this or not. Say it. Say it. Michael Carter was a lot better runner in college than Michael P. Ryan. Athletically, they are very, very, very similar. They were drafted in the same round,

and P. Ryan had a 40 catch year in college. I don't know that there's like this wide gap between Michael Carter and LaMichael. Like I would take Carter over P. Ryan, but I don't know that we have a lot of evidence that Carter's a lot better at like third down stuff. Is Ty Johnson still on the roster? Yeah.

That could be the guy that takes him off the field in third downs. Or Tevin Coleman could do it. How about LaMichael P. Ryan takes Tevin Coleman off the field on first down and second down? How about LaMichael P. Ryan is the best running back? I think Carter's a better early down back than P. Ryan. No question. Carter's their best early down

back already. But Carter... But... Looking just at the numbers and the measurables I don't know what would say Michael Carter's definitely a better pass catching back than P.P. Ryan earned a larger share of the targets on his team and had a 40 catch seizure

well that no better way to end it than with Jets running back talk so we will end it right there. Actually, good discussions today. Appreciate it, guys. That's Dave Richard and Heath Cummings. I'm Adam Azer.

We're back tomorrow with wide receiver rankings disputes. We'll talk to you then.