Fantasy Football Today - Updated WR Rankings! When Should the Rookies Be Drafted? (05/04 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 4, 2022

Buy some FFT merchandise at our store! https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today Round 7 was the beginning of the rookie run in a mock draft we completed yesterday. Before we get into that, Dave and Heath give their philosophies on rookie wide receivers as Heath tends to be a bit more conservative. Then we go through each rookie WR selection from our draft and evaluate their values (10:30). Which veteran WRs should go ahead of them (17:15)? ... An update on the "grunts" that you heard on yesterday's show (28:40), then news and notes (31:40) as we talk about the Texans backfield ... Debating Mike Evans (37:40), Amari Cooper (41:30), Allen Robinson (44:15) and the Broncos WRs (47:40) ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Fantasy Football Today. Hey, if you're in a 12-team league and it's about to be round seven, you should prepare for the rookie wide receivers to be coming off the board based on what we saw yesterday in the live mock draft we did right here on YouTube.com slash fantasy football today so all of you listening at home if you want to watch us if you want to see what we look like

see my cool new haircut heath i think has a cool new haircut dave has looked exactly the same for the 12 years i've been working with him uh 13 i think uh yeah youtube.com slash fantasy football today i noticed dave is higher i think on the rookie receivers, except for the ones that are late round picks. Except for the one that Heath is higher on. Well, except for Garrett Wilson. But in terms of the appealing ones, Burke, London, Burke's London, Olave, Dave is the high guy on them compared to Heath. And for some reason, Heath likes Garrett Wilson a lot.

What's up with that, Mr. Jets? Well, Garrett Wilson was my favorite wide receiver coming into the draft. And so I think that's probably what's up with that. But I think I'm normally lower initially on the rookies in my rankings because especially this time of year, the rookies are much closer to the projections.

And they're not going to project very well. in my rankings, because especially this time of year, the rookies are, are much closer to the projections. Um, and they aren't going to project very well. The highest ranked rookie is Traylon Burks. He's number 32 for Dave and for Heath, it's Garrett Wilson, who's number 35. Uh, Dave also has Drake London back to back with Traylon Burks.

So London and Burks are wide receiver threes for Dave. And so is Olave. He's number 37. That's full PPR. They actually are in non-PPR, too. Yeah, it's both. I really think that PPR, they're safer in that space. Olave, too.

Actually, a trend that I had noticed, I don't know if it held true last year. It certainly did not with Jalen Waddell, but it did with Jamar Chase and maybe Devontae Smith. Rookie-wide receivers have typically done better in non-PPR. They don't usually break out into their full catch potential as rookies. Obviously, Waddell was an exception. I think I have.

There's one or two where I have them the same, but I think I have all of the rookies ranked higher in non PPR than I do in full PPR. And I think Dave might be the opposite. It's very close for Dave though. It's like books one spot ahead, London, one spot ahead in PPR, Olave one spot ahead in PPR than he is in non PPR.

So Dave, Dave basically has them, you know, very similar. Um, but I don't know, Dave, you want to,

you want to, are you hired? You think he said he's a little conservative with the rookie wide receivers this time of year? Are you the opposite? Are you higher on them? I'm higher on them because I think a lot of them are going to have a chance to play really quickly, and that's going to obviously help them put up numbers

and be useful for fantasy. I think about Traylon Burks and Drake London. I think about the situations that they fell into in their draft. I know their quarterbacks aren't necessarily great, but they're, they've got a path to 120 targets.

That's what we're looking for. We're looking for somebody that can put up some huge target potential and then hopefully do things with it. They both have size on their side as well. I'm a little bit more worried

about the touchdown. I'm worried about the touchdowns for both of them, but if they can get you to six or seven over the course of the year, get close to a thousand yards, put up 70 catches with it. That's a wide receiver three. I admit that I'm drafting them near their ceiling because they are in that wide receiver three range.

But I also look at a lot of other wide outs from, uh, from Lockett. Lockett's ahead of these guys. So maybe that's not the best one, but Gabriel Davis, for now, behind Berks in London. Rashad Bateman, behind. Devontae Smith, behind. Christian Kirk, behind. Hunter Renfro, behind. Alan Lazard, behind.

All those guys are behind them because I don't know if they've got that same type of upside that these rookies have. Now, in saying all that, one of the things i've learned from heath and this is heath's projections are one of the best things that we've got going i know that he's got a baseline i don't know if it's a model but like a baseline number for wide receivers rookie wide receivers based on past performance historical data etc etc i want to make sure that that's right and i'm not just making that up Heath. So you can tell me if I'm wrong on that or not,

but if I'm right on that and you do use a basic standard for rookie wide receivers, what, what are those basic standards and then how far do you deviate from them for the receivers that you really like? I very rarely project a rookie wide receiver to have more than 20 percent target share okay um and i think like the trailing berkshwin is the one that really i struggle with because he did fall into a situation and i don't think it's fair that he's getting the aj brown comparisons because there are some similarities but he's not aj brown i don't think i think it's really unfair to call

him aj brown right now right but then the other side of that is aj brown saw 84 targets as a rookie i guess it's an extremely run heavy offense and now robert woods is going to be there for at least part of the year um so yeah i i generally my rule is i generally don't give more than a 20 target target share to rookies. I may have gone a little over that on a couple of the very early guys, but then also the other thing is the later you are selected, the lower I'm going to be on your first-year target share. And Sky Moore could be an example of that.

Would you like me to tell you? Yeah. Oh, sorry. Would you like me to tell you? Yeah. Oh, sorry. Would you like me to tell you the wide receivers who have, rookie wide receivers who have finished in the top 36, you know, for the last however many years you'd like? Yes, please go back 31 years. I'd like for you to go five years.

Okay, so let's start. Let's go 2021. Chase, Waddle, St. Brown, Devontae Smith. All top 36. 2020. Per game? No, full season. 2020.

Well, I mean, per game, you know, you start getting into per game. I can give you the per game. 2020. Jefferson, Claypool, Lamb, Higgins, Ayuk. 2019. AJ Brown, McLaurin, Debo, Met metcalf darius slayton was 37th but 33rd non-ppr we found a way to say his name again uh 2018 ridley dj moore and dj moore barely made it he basically was darius slayton and then 2017 ju and Cooper Cup. So it's gotten so much better the last three years.

One, two, three, four, five. One, two, three, four, five. I have the same combination in my luggage. One, two, three, four. We've had 14 wide receivers finish top, rookie wide receivers finish top 36, five, five, and four in the last three years. I would just say any wide receiver that i have

projected at least in the top 50 but maybe in the top 55 if they play 17 games or even 16 games this season they'll probably finish in the top 36 yeah but not all of them did play 17 games you know and the stories oh no a lot of them didn. Cause they only started doing that last year. Not all of them played full seasons. And a lot of them are, you know, the stories are different, right?

So you got a guy like Amandra St. Brown and Brandon Iuke. They had pretty similar rookie seasons. They basically did all of their work in the last six games of the year. And in that stretch, they were basically top five, top six receivers. I don't remember exactly what it was,

but T Higgins did so much of his work in that one stretch with Joe Burrow. basically top five, top six receivers. I don't remember exactly what it was. T. Higgins did so much of his work in that one stretch with Joe Burrow, and then Burrow got hurt, and Higgins wasn't really usable anymore. I think the St. Brown and the A.J. Brown and I guess maybe even the Justin Jefferson, but what is it? For a guy who you think has the upside

that could finish as a top 36 wide receiver because he has a great six games in the end of the season or seven games. I think more often than not, it's the second half of the season. Yeah, absolutely. Where do you draft that guy if you know that if he's not done it the first seven or eight weeks of the season, you're going to probably drop him? You pick him up off waivers. Oh oh i don't think you can take them before when somebody else drops them yeah yeah yeah

oh man another delay with dave what is going on all right dave hop out and hop back in i'm sorry man uh we always have issues now with Dave's setup here, so I'm going to boot him. Well, and we definitely do remember the guys that we may or may not have dropped at some point during their rookie year, and then they had great finishes. But what about the first-round picks over the last five years or second-round picks or third-round picks

that we drafted in the first 10 rounds that we rightly dropped oh sure well and then who would you rather and then like how do you judge davante smith versus amandra st brown like you'd have to say even though amandra st brown was really mostly mostly just useful for for that last stretch you know you'd have to say you preferred him right Right. And like, I don't think anybody drafted to Munworth around the first 10 rounds anyways. No, but if they did,

they almost definitely dropped him. Yeah, absolutely. Uh, so anyway, there are different paths to, uh, being fantasy relevant for these rookie wide receivers and for all wide

receivers. And let's see, I got Dave back here. Dave, you got me. Uh, uh, uh,

well done. Yeah, I'm here. I'm here. All right, so I'm going to go through where all these rookie wide receivers went, and then later on, we're going to debate some of the veterans. Mike Evans is about 12 spots apart in the PPR rankings.

I think we've done that one before, but we'll do it again briefly. Amari Cooper is 10 spots apart in the PPR rankings. Alan Robinson, seven spots. Jerry Judy, six spots. And I did want to talk about Amonra St. Brown because he is pretty low in the rankings. I'm going to ask you just one quick question

about all these rookie wide receivers based on where they went in our draft yesterday. And it started with Sky Moore, who went at pick 7.7, seventh pick of the round, of the seventh round, 79th overall, two full rounds after Juju Smith-Schuster. What was that, Heathath that was my head

exploding oh oh yeah first question is dan schneier basically said like okay let's just have fun with it what he made the pick so i think he knew he was he was going off the board there but i have already got the impression that i'm not going to hate myself for being the low guy on sky more um but i and i wrote his prospect profile before the draft and I really liked him and I put the chiefs as his best potential landing spot. But I also thought that he, like he was pretty raw. I don't have great expectations for him as a rookie. I think he's played wide receiver for three years of his life. Um, I, and they have a lot of weapons that do similar things to him yeah so he shouldn't be the first one off the board i think we all agree on that right dave

i agree i don't think sky more should even be the fifth off the board in redraft you could make the case that he could be sixth off the board we could say that that's fair. And the real basis of loving Sky Moore is, well, he's sure-handed, he's quick, and he's got Patrick Mahomes throwing to him. And the competition for targets beyond Travis Kelsey, everybody has a flaw, whether

it's Juju, McCall Hardman, MVS, what have you. So I think someone's going to get excited, and maybe a little over excited about sky more in every draft. I know I like them as a number four receiver. I'm willing to take the stab at them. Um,

just because I, I know what the situation is, but it's not going to be the first receiver off the board. It's not going to be a round eight pick or anything like that. We're talking closer to double digit rounds, more likely to have a Devante Smith top 36 season or an Amandra St. a round eight pick or anything like that. We're talking closer to double-digit rounds. More likely to have a Devontae Smith top 36 season or an Amandra St. Brown top 36-type season, Sky Moore? Probably closer to St. Brown,

where players have to get beat up a little bit. Okay. Next up, three picks later, Traylon Burks, 10th pick of round seven 82nd overall one other i'm sorry adam to cut you off um heath when tyree kill came into the league how did you did you think he was well-rounded and ready to go or did you think he was a little raw well he wasn't well he was it was definitely not well-rounded and ready to go i don't think he was really well-rounded until year three right but he still made a good impact i don't know. I don't think he was really well-rounded until year three. Right, but he still made

a good impact. I don't know if I'd say that he was an amazing fantasy receiver as a rookie, but he did so well. 593 yards receiving as a rookie. It was rushing. That's why. Right, his rushing numbers were actually good. I remember that. And so I'm hoping that Sky Moore can be a little bit better than Tyreek Hill

was as a rookie. As a receiver, yeah. Well, yeah, just overall. little bit better than Tyreek Hill was as a rookie as a receiver yeah well yeah just overall well overall Tyreek Hill was wide receiver 15 in non-PPR and wide receiver 23 in full PPR but that was so so much because of his rushing not because of his receiving so do you have the numbers in front of you what did he told yeah he had uh 267 yards rushing he scored nine touchdowns and he had 593 yards receiving okay so also that team yeah the the number one wide receiver on that team was jeremy macklin the number two was chris connelly okay well how far away from that are we with Juju Smith-Schuster and MVS and Nicole Hardman? And Kelsey. Well, Kelsey was on that team, too.

Kelsey was on that team, yeah. Oh, okay. We're not counting that. Of course Kelsey's going to be on that team. Can we move on to the next guy? Because I've got like 13 wide receivers here to talk about. Okay. I'm just saying that Sky, I think Moore's got a chance, but it's going to be like I suggested.

He's going to need a bigger opportunity because somebody gets hurt or sucks, and it'll come in the second half of the season. I'm just going to have to reach for him in one league and make sure I get him because I'm not getting him anywhere else in Dynasty or Redraft, I don't think. Sky's going to fly. I'm going to say that all the time. It's Paw Patrol. It's Paw Patrol.

Traylon Burks, 82nd overall, 10th pick of round seven uh the quick question here is is that a good time for trailing burks or is that kind of late for trailing burks 82nd overall oh i would say that it's a little late it's nine picks earlier than i would take him okay and he went two rounds ahead of Robert Woods. So follow-up question. What are the odds that Robert Woods is actually the leading receiver for Tennessee and that he's a better pick than Traylon Burks? Sure.

If he stays healthy, if he stays healthy, he's there on time. And Burks struggles a little bit. 49%. 49%. 49%. So would you rather have Woods two rounds later than Burks? Yes, I would. Dave? If I can get Burks at 82,

I think I'd rather take the chance on that. As of now. I have them two picks apart right now. Where did Woods go two round basically two full rounds after late round nine it's probably a little earlier than i'd like to take a guy who's 30 years old coming off a torn acl changing teams and going to a run heavier offense but i get it drake london one pickaylon Burks. He went 83rd overall. I was so mad about this pick.

I was hoping to get one of these guys because when you go back and you look at this mock, I really did not go after wide receivers at all. So I was hoping to get one of Burks or London, and they both went right in front of me. And when London went, and it was a mock, I pulled the Scott Fish. I lost my cool for a second i uh

i think again almost the same thing with burks feels like a good value uh yeah this is uh dave and i's gonna say the same thing on everyone dave's i think i'm gonna say that they went too early um but man like how good do we think Marcus Mariota is going to be? You mean Desmond Ritter? Fine. I think it's more, I think it's more likely that Marcus Mariota supports a top three tight end and a top 36 wide receiver than Desmond Ritter as a rookie.

Probably fair enough. Fair enough. I'm just joking around. I think, I think that the rest of that offense is kind of hideous, and their defense is also similarly hideous. This is going to be a team that's going to put the ball in the air a lot, and I think Mariota can benefit from having these two giants

catching his targets. All right, so the question I have on London here, and really could apply to Olave too, because he's the next pick. Which veteran wide receiver would you take ahead of Drake London and Chris Olave? So we have DeAndre Hopkins, which might just depend on your team or whatever, but first pick of round eight.

Devontae Smith, Christian Kirk, Brandon Ayuk. You know, those are the next four wide receivers off the board. DeAndre Hopkins, Devontae Smith, Christian Kirk, and Brandon Ayuk. Heath, if you think that it's too early for these rookie wide receivers, are you taking these veteran guys before them? I haven't got Hopkins moved down in my rankings yet, but I would probably take Hopkins over these guys

because I think there's a chance that for the final 10 weeks of the season, Hopkins is a top 20, and I guess they could be two. The one I had previously ahead of them was Devante Smith, but just one spot ahead. Right. So when you start to consider the other players there, it doesn't seem all that early for these wide receivers. And then if you compare them to Hopkins,

we know rookie wide receivers often get off to slow starts. Even Justin Jefferson, the first two games for sure, maybe three. Not so much Jamar Chase. But forget it. Those guys are mega elite and they're kind of outliers. But rookie wide receivers often get off to slow starts. So knowing that, it's harder to justify taking them over Hopkins. I'm not saying I wouldn't. But if you were comparing the two, you might not really have

a super start-worthy guy for the first six weeks. Either way, yeah. Either way. Obviously, you're not going to have it with Hopkins. But those rookie wide receivers might be stashes.

So if you were going to take Hopkins ahead of them before, which you were, it's just something to think about. Let's go to Christian Watson. He goes 88th overall. He went one round ahead of Alan Lazard. My question is, should Christian Watson have gone

one round ahead of Alan Lazard? No. I have Lazard ahead of Watson. Same. Should Alan Lazard go ahead of Traylon Burks and Drake London and Chris Olave? I have him ahead of them, yes. I do not.

The one guy that I think I might have been a little too aggressive on after the draft was Olave. After further study, I might move Olave back a little bit. I don't know if I can keep Lazard or move Lazard higher than those other two rookie receivers. Okay, why are you pushing back on Olave? Just because of the New Orleans offense in general. If I really think that Olave's got a shot at over 100 targets

or maybe even close to 120, the way I have it ranked, he's real close behind Burks in London. That's bad for the rest of that passing game. So maybe I think I probably put a little too much stock into Olave. I really like his game, really like the fit in New Orleans too as the number two receiver there. But he's probably not going to flirt with 120 targets this year. Yeah, I've got him at 110 in the first projections,

which I don't have hardly anybody at 120 but this is another team i don't feel real comfortable with how often the saints are going to throw the ball um yeah there's that and so that that will probably determine i've got him at a 20 target share i think he's awesome i think being opposite michael thomas is awesome for him and he might be one of those guys who doesn't i don't know what the example is but the rookie who doesn't necessarily get a ton of targets but has the extreme efficiency and so still finishes the top 36 guy that might have been aj brown actually oh yeah right where did aj brown finish i mean because right aj brown

where he finished and the impact he had were different. But you just had to wait for it. A.J. Brown was number 10 in non-PPR, number 21 in full PPR. Big difference there. Okay. Then we've got Garrett Wilson, 94th overall. He went one round after Elijah Moore.

He went about four rounds ahead of Corey Davis, for what that's worth. But who would you rather have Elijah Moore or Garrett Wilson? This pains me to say, and I like both these receivers, but I've got Elijah Moore currently one spot ahead of Garrett Wilson thinking that he's got an opportunity to get maybe a few more targets,

certainly in the early part of the year. And I'm just still unsure how I feel about Zach Wilson as a quarterback. These are two guys whose stock could absolutely skyrocket if Wilson has a great training camp and a great preseason. They should both play a lot, and Wilson is an awesome playmaker. Garrett Wilson is an awesome playmaker. But I'm concerned about just how accurate Zach Wilson will be. And then also the jets drafted this running back breeze hall.

And I wonder if he's going to end up soaking up more work than what the, or he will help the jets running backs soak up more work than what they had last season. Yeah. I feel like Heath, you might like this draft pick like late in round late around Garrett Wilson. It's finally time for me to say that a wide receiver could have or should have gone earlier than where they were drafted.

I've got him at pick 82, so just inside the seventh round. And I just kind of assume like they had Elijah Moore on the team. They had Corey Davis on the team. They had Corey Davis on the team. They chose to take Garrett Wilson at pick 10 when they were going to be fine. Secondary options at wide receiver later in the draft for him. Then they weren't going to run into a situation where they couldn't get another second or third wide receiver. If that's what they wanted,

they went and got this guy at 10th. I think they see Garrett Wilson as their number one wide receiver. And so that's the way I'm projecting him. If they did want to take Brees Hall though, in the second round then they had to take Aaron Wilson basically, right? I mean you could say well they could have taken Christian Watson

or something in round two. They traded back into the first for another pick, right? Yeah, they got Jermaine Johnson in lay round one. They could have taken Jermaine Johnson then which is why the Wilson pick kind of surprised me but clearly they're bored as Wilson ahead of jermaine johnson who was one of the top pass rushers in the draft at least it's in this fat

guy's opinion and bruce hall was the top running back in the draft and they proved that in the second round when they moved up to get him are you drinking he looks like an iced tea uh it's just water and uh it's an old time. Well, it looks like iced tea. It's not. Well, it looks like it. There's not ice in it either. Jameson Williams. Even if there was tea, it wouldn't be iced tea.

We're into round nine now. So you had Sky Moore, Traylon Burks, Drake London, and Chris Olave all go in the last half of round seven. You had Christian Watson and Garrett Wilson in round eight. We go to round nine. Jameson Williams comes off the board 102nd overall, sixth pick of round seven. He had Christian Watson and Garrett Wilson in round eight. We go to round nine. Jamison Williams comes off the board 102nd overall, sixth pick of round nine. Question here, Jamison Williams goes two rounds after Amandra St. Brown. Basically, almost 24 picks, two rounds after Amandra St. Brown. What's better value, Heath? I think St. Brown is. I've got St. Brown

three rounds ahead of Jamameson williams um i think they may have both i think saint brown went right about where i have him and uh and williams just went just about a round early we don't we'll have to find out like when he's going to be ready and how ready he's going to be denny's glassware yeah yeah those were plastic that was plastic whereware, I believe. Right. So we have a comment on YouTube. Heath got that Denny's glassware. It really does look like you shoplifted that from a restaurant.

I cannot recall the last time I've been to a Denny's. Well, any restaurant, though. I thought you were going to say, I can't recall the last time I shoplifted. I'm glad you didn't say that. What was the last time I – I'm going to be thinking about that. Okay. All right. We're interested. Hey, now. say that what was the last time I I'm gonna be thinking about that okay all right we're interested hey now

and then Dave I'm gonna finish up with you here we got five more wide receivers that went starting in round 11 Johan Dotson then in round 12 Jalen Tolbert and Alec Pierce and George Pickens Johan Dotson goes is the on Washington Jalen Tolbert Dallas he went two rounds

after Michael Gallup alec pierce on the colts george pickens on the steelers and david bell was the last rookie drafted rookie wide receiver he went late late around 13 he's on cleveland um okay so you look at dotson tolbert pierce pickens bell who are you going to spend a late round pick on from those five it's dotson and it's you know draft capital plus speed plus potential upside in an offense that should throw the ball and needs a number two target to go opposite of Terry McLaurin and it's an offense that for however much it might not be much but they upgraded their quarterback spot with Wentz from Heineke so it's not I don't

feel good about it I don't have him ranked as a top 60 wide receiver in PPR. I think he's closer to around 12 than he is anything else. Okay. And that's a look. Oh, sorry. Go ahead. I was gonna say,

there's one guy here that I like in that, in this range, I think, and that's George Pickens. Um, I think he has more upside than any other wide receiver on the Steelers roster. All right.

I have something more exciting to talk about here, guys. We are going to give you some merchandise, give you 20% off some merchandise. You can represent your favorite podcast with official Fantasy Football Today gear only found on the CBS Sports Store. We've got T-shirts, mugs, sweatpants, laser-engraved pint glasses, pew-pew, hats, water bottles, and more. He can use one of those. Wait, you can't let Heath near the warehouse where we have this stuff.

He might take one of those glasses. Shoplifter Heath. We've got all this great stuff, and you can get 20% off your order when you use this podcast exclusive code fantasy football 20 during checkout you might have to use all caps i'm not sure fantasy football 20 one word and it's only available for our listeners head over to the link in the episode description and shop right now so i have a hypothetical question about shoplifting okay Okay. Completely and totally hypothetical. It's bad. Okay. Let's say, hypothetically, you were at a conference, okay? And the food was provided, very good food, and you were really hungry. And they gave you little tickets for your

food. And you went through the line the first time, and nobody ever asked for your ticket. Not shoplifting. And so you ate your you ate your you ate your dinner and everyone else is eating there's hundreds of people there and then you thought man i'm still hungry and you're like i've still got my ticket you're good so you went back through the line a second time oh you're fine yeah that's that's not shopping i would ask before you order say hey i ordered already you didn't take my ticket. Do you have enough left over? Oh my God, get out of here. Get out of here.

You're stealing from somebody if you use that ticket twice. There's plenty of food. You got to run out. Someone's paying for that meal twice. Donovan Shea calls you Thief Cummings. I think you're fine. All right, so we got an email. I can't wait to come back to your house again. Your dad Cummings. I think you're fine. I think you're fine. All right.

So we got an email. I can't wait to come back to your house again. Your dad will love it when I'm like, hey, I know I had some of your cookies before. Can I have some more? Oh, more than what you have. As much as you want. I can just shoplift some pizza and wings. I'll be there at 1 o'clock.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I need to make up for that. Yeah. I owe you some rah-rahs. So don't read the email of the year, guys. Don't read the email. Not going to read it. A little background here. Heath owe you some rah-rahs. So don't read the email of the year, guys. Don't read the email. Not going to read it. A little background here.

Heath, you missed the show yesterday. We're working on a new intro. I'm going to let you decide. I'm just going to do this segment real quick. It's going to start like this. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

What a play! Can you believe this? Okay. So the next part is either going to be this. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance. The grunts or this.

It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is going to go the distance. So we get to decide grunts or no grunts. I think grunts won the YouTube poll yesterday 51% to 49%. I'll mix them in. We'll do both. But Heath, do you know what those grunts are? Can I hear them once more?

It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is gonna go the distance. I don't think I do. Dave, do you know? Play it again. Last time, last time. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is getting good. Is that professional wrestling?

No, it's professional football. One of our listeners knew what it was, which blows my mind. They knew what the grunts were from? They knew what it was from. It's amazing. This is why it's the email of the year. Nobody got it on YouTube yesterday. Nobody has it now.

I'll just tell you what it is. Todd in a city barely south of Nash Vegas. Lynchburg. Brentwood. Brentwood. Todd from Brentwood says, this is from the 1990 Broncos versus Chiefs matchup in which Broncos safety Steve Atwater laid the wood to Chiefs running back Christian Okoye aka the Nigerian nightmare

the hit actually made the NFL's top 100 plays of all time awesome play especially in the context of how good both players were back in the day go with the grunt I recognize the sound from the game itself and an early nineties NFL tape. I still have called thunder and destruction. So I went on YouTube and I watched and what it is. The first grunt is Atwater hitting a Koya. The second grunt is a Koya go. And then the, ah,

at the end is Atwater basically taunting. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. So that is not a guy in pain. That is a guy celebrating. Very, very cool. And yeah, that is a legendary hit, by the way. By the way, Dave suggested to include Heath's sigh. Made me laugh.

That soundbite is hilarious. Mixing that into the theme occasionally would be fun. Easter egg of sorts. Yeah, I agree. I think we should do that. Dave, we came up with a segment yesterday. We're going to do sell high or Heath sigh, which we're going to have to figure that out.

Yeah. When that segment comes around, I'm not going to want to sell high on anybody. All right. So this receiver just broke his leg and is retiring from football. What should we do? Don't sell high on him. So let's give you a few news and notes real quick here.

ESPN's Jordan Reed thinks the Titans are going to force-feed the ball to Traylon Burks in the running game as well. So that'd be fun. And Houston GM Nick Casario said that rookie running back Damian Pierce will have to create a role for himself. I don't know how he'll ever do that with all the competition on the roster. Are we sleeping on Marlon Mack? Because honestly, if you look at the YouTube comments,

we're sleeping on Marlon Mack. He's definitely worth a late-round pick. Could be a zero-RB type of player. You got to wait and see what happens in training camp. Right now it sounds good because the GM is saying that the rookie has to earn his role. That's how a lot of GMs and a lot of coaches think. And maybe Marlon, we might be right back

where we were with Marlon Mack two years ago, where Marlon Mack, the lead guy for Indianapolis, Jonathan Taylor, the Ballyhooed rookie, and the coaches are going to be like, nope, Jonathan Taylor's got to earn his role. And Marlon Mack has to, and Marlon Mack ends up being a valuable pick in fantasy drafts. And then he goes and misses pretty much the entire year getting hurt in week one, and Jonathan Taylor eventually evolves into the stud that we know him as today. I don't think it'll be quite like that, but Marlon Mack could be the lead running back for Houston to begin the year,

and then Pierce takes over at some point. So if you draft Mack in the double-digit rounds, and then before the season, name your team return of the Mack, and then he's a starting fantasy running back all season long, that would be pretty spectacular, right? Yes. You should get an extra 20 points added to your points for. Yeah. Just for that by the way can i can i pitch my uh fantasy football league idea on the air right now oh is it yeah i would love wait just a second let

me pull up the twitter thread real quick just so i can type it directly no yeah like someone's gonna yes someone's gonna steal this at some point So I'm just going to throw it out now Hold on, hold on If someone's going to steal it Then what you need to do is not say it now When the podcast is over you need to tell it to me I will steal your idea I will be a rich billionaire

And you can You know Keep hanging out and giving me cookies When I visit your dad's house By the way, real quick Heath Heath, someone in our fantasy baseball league named his team after a player and then dropped that player, and as the commissioner, I made him change his

team name. I'm pretty sure I held on to Yasmany Tomas the entire season that I named my team Yasmany Money Tomas Problems. That's the worst. The worst. You have to sit there

and think about it and it still doesn't make sense. Anyway, here's my idea. It's what I want all of you commissioners to do. You're going to have to do it manually. Oh, I hate it. I want you to allow your league members to

pick games against the spread and get fantasy points if they get the pick right and lose fantasy points if they get the pick wrong. You as the commissioner can decide however many points you want for each correct or incorrect guess. And the picks obviously have to be made. I would say they have to be made before Sunday. You might say they have to be made before Thursday. But if you're an underdog, then you can go start picking games and things like that. And I think it would be fun. It's totally optional. What?

You know, it's just so fun. It's like watching you grow up through the many stages of a dad. Like you nailed the dad jokes just right away, but it took you a couple of years to get to the telling us the same story that you've told us six times already. I've never said that. And thinking that no one's ever heard it before. I've never said this on the show.

Because you absolutely told this story on the show. No way. To me in the past. No way. 100%. No way. You've absolutely said this idea before. Yes.

I'm just not sure if it's on the podcast. I've never said it on the show. I really don't think I ever said it on the show. Because I wanted... No, I didn't say it on the show. And I'll tell you why after, off the air. But I think commissioners should do it. You'll tell me that off the air.

I think I might try to do it. There's no way I'll be able to do it for the podcast league. No. I'm just too busy. No, and nor should you. Because it's just more more stuff yeah but people like it it's fun what are you doing it's fun i think it's just what if you just get points if the team that your player who you start is on covers the spread no so if i start

aj brown and the spread that's an extra five points what's the skill and if they don't cover the spread then i lose five points now what there's the skill in that? If they don't cover the spread, then I lose five points. No, there's no skill in that. You've got to pick games. And you don't have to. It's completely optional. You don't have to pick any games at all. Or you can pick every single one. Anyway, it's brilliant. Enjoy it. All right, we're going to take a break. When we come back, some wide receiver disputes and some emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Boy, look at the rankings for Mike Evans. I'm telling myself to look at them because I don't remember them.

Dave has Mike Evans something like 9th, and Heath has him 17th, I believe. They're pretty close in non-PPR, but in full PPR, it's 7th and 19th, actually. So 7th for Dave and 19th for Heath. In non-PPR, they're much closer. It's 7th and 10th on Mike Evans. So I do think that we've had

this discussion before, but not the one that we just had before the break. I feel pretty... Yeah, it's Donovan Shea. Yes, you do lose points with the incorrect pick.

That's the point. Yes, there's a risk to picking the games. Anyway, Heath, 17th for Mike Evans? Yeah, I mean... 19th, 19th. I know we've had this conversation before

because I don't like it. It's uncomfortable, and you love to do things that are uncomfortable to me. But I know that Tom Brady has only been on the team for two years, and so that can be the explanation for this. But the really easy way for me is that he scored 13 touchdowns on 109 targets two

years ago and 14 and 114 targets the year before that. No wide receiver comes anywhere close to scoring at that rate on a year over year basis. And somehow he did it twice in a row. But like the two years before that, he'd scored 16 times on 270 targets, I think 256. And I just don't believe that he's going to continue scoring touchdowns more than once every 10 targets.

And without the touchdowns, he's a 70 catch, barely a thousand yard guy in 16 games. Yeah. Uh, he's never guy. In 16 games, yeah. He's never played more than 16 games. Right, but if you say he's a 70 catch, 1,000-yard guy, I'm saying, I think people might hear that and say, oh, that's what you think over 17 games. He's a 75 catch, 1,075-yard guy. Okay, I think it's a fairly important distinction, just to clarify what you mean.

But, okay, Dave, you you got him in your top 10 and it might be a little high but the past four years in ppr leagues he's finished 11th 16th 4th and 10th on a per game basis he is the only pass catcher returning to tampa bay that has two healthy knees and Tom Brady's attention inside the 10-yard line as of now and if it stays that way he might score every week I'm okay with the low volume because I think he'll make up for it in touchdowns still and I think that's the other thing that Dave said like I'm I'm kind of just acting like Chris Godwin's fine because I expect Chris Godwin to be fine. And if we get to three weeks into camp or two weeks into camp and Chris Godwin's on the pup, then I'm going to have to make some pretty serious adjustments. Where do you have Godwin now? Like 10, 9 or 10.

I mean, I'm not that far off. I've got him at 12 in PPR. So I got, I agree. You're going to have to make some adjustments if he's not back yet. The other issue I've got is I I'll compare Evans to Tyreek Hill and Debo Samuel and Godwin Keenan Allen. And I just,

I, I don't know. I feel a lot better about him provided that Gronk is not Gronk or not there and that Godwin gets off to a slow start because he's coming back from the knee. Yeah, by the way, I'm going to give you an Acer stat.

Good. Take out the Saints game. He got hurt during the Saints game. He played 23% of the snaps. 17 game pace. 83 catches. 1,157 yards. 16 touchdowns on 127 targets. If it moves, it's a Saints game. I have him projected for 79 catches, 1,184 yards, but only nine touchdowns. Okay.

Next rankings dispute is Amari Cooper, 20th for Dave, 10th for Heath. Dave, low-ish on Cooper. Well, I think the first question you have to ask yourself when you get to Amari Cooper is, do you have Deshaun Watson ranked as if he's playing 17 games? I'll speak for myself, I don't. I think he's going to be suspended. And for those games, I can't imagine Amari Cooper

frequently being a top-20 type of fantasy receiver. I also don't know if I'm going to see a breakout year for Cooper in Cleveland the past four years. I just talked about this with Evans. PPR points per game, he's been 30th, 20th, 14th, and 22nd. I think that puts him well within range of being a middle to low end, number two fantasy wide receiver, provided that Watson does miss time. Is Cleveland going to change their offensive philosophy with Deshaun there?

They kind of should. And so that might hurt a little bit. That might hurt Chubb a little bit. But I don't know if that necessarily means they're going to be so pass aggressive that Amari Cooper is going to fall into 140 targets. I think he's a very solid number two fantasy receiver. So wait, hold on one sec real quick. You don't have Deshaun Watson

ranked as if he's playing a full season? Because you have him, everybody has him. Do you all have him ranked as if he's going to be suspended? He'd be higher for me if I knew he was playing 17. Or, you know, potentially could play 17. The only person who, like I haven't projected for 17 games and projected at seventh. I moved Brady ahead of him

because they were close enough. But I don't think that's necessarily a bad point. I'm not sure I've factored in that enough for Cooper. But I also don't know for sure that Deshaun Watson's going to be suspended. If he doesn't have anything criminal and he's not settled

any cases, I don't know what the basis for suspending him will be. But also, I just don't care that much for him because there's 16 guys who could be a low-end QB1, and I'll just draft another one of those in the double digit rounds and keep Watson basically where I've got him projected for 17 games.

Okay. Okay. And yeah. What do you want to say about Cooper? Who you have 10th then? Um, I, I do think there's going to be a pretty significant,

I could, I think Dave said, do I think he's going to get 140 targets? No, I've got him projected for 147 targets. Oh, wow. So I, I do think he's going to now, if Jarvis Landry came back,

that would change things. But I think he's the clear, clear number one wide receiver right now on this roster. And not just wide receiver, but pass catcher. There's not anybody else that's going to be close to him, I don't think. Okay. Next up is Alan Robinson, 22nd for Dave, 29th for Heath. And you guys both have him ranked as if he can recover from one of the worst fantasy seasons, one of the biggest bust fantasy seasons

of any player not injured in a long time, even without the injuries. He was so bad. Yeah. So Dave, I mean, 22nd, fairly aggressive, I'd say, on Allen Robinson. I think he can get to 120 targets, too. I think he makes the cut there. He's going to be in that old role, left behind, first by Robert Woods and then by Odell. Not that he's going to do what Odell

did, but I think he can do what Robert Woods did. I went back and checked the most targeted receiver on LA, not named Cooper cup over from game to game over the course of the season this is a composite receiver so sometimes it's woods sometimes it's odell sometimes it's van jefferson 127 targets in the regular season so that's a lot if you take robinson's numbers from 2020 and 2021 combined and put that on 127 target pace. It comes out to 82 catches, 976 yards, and four touchdowns. But that's in Chicago's offense.

That's with Justin Fields, Nick Foles, and Andy Dalton, and Trubisky, and all kinds of crap at quarterback. No offense, Justin Fields. You're awesome. The composite Rams receiver that I talked about, the guy who isn't Cooper Cup, that next best receiver in 17 games, caught 10 touchdowns last year. So I think he's well within. It wouldn't surprise me if he caught eight or nine, the same type of number that Heath

projected for Mike Evans. I think he can get there because I think the Rams offense is that good, and I think he'll have that much of an opportunity. So I'm ranking him as a low-end number two wide receiver in a year where I don't love a lot of low-end number two wide receivers. Yeah. I think I may be hedging a little bit more that what we saw last year was the beginning of the end for Allen Robinson as an elite wide receiver.

And the thing he's been elite at through his career, except for 2015, it's not been his efficiency. It's been the fact that he's earned 150 targets. Like if he earns 150 targets, he's a low end number one or high end number two wide receiver. I've got the numbers days that aren't far from what I have. I've got him at 123 targets, 81 catches a thousand yards and six touchdowns.

The touchdowns would definitely make the difference. Yeah. The touchdowns would definitely make some difference and get them closer to wide receiver 24. And I'll move him up one spot because I still had Hopkins ahead of him, so 28. But I am a little bit, and I'm still a little bit worried

that Odell Beckham's coming back to the Rams. By the way, the numbers Dave gave, with the number two wide receiver composite, that was with Cooper Cup getting a 31.5% target share. So there could be even more targets available. That's true. But I don't think it's realistic to expect that Alan Robinson is going to be second

on the team in targets every single week. Like saying, if you just took the guy who was second every week, there will be weeks where Van Jefferson's first or second on the teams in targets. I would assume. There might be a week or two where Tyler Higby's first or second on the teams and targets. I would assume there might be a week or two where Tyler Higbee's first or second on the team and targets.

So even if it stays like this, Robinson won't be second on the team and targets every week. Uh, right. But he could be first on the team in some weeks. Eh, probably not. Woods had a couple of weeks,

I believe. Yeah, he probably was. Okay. And then Jerry Judy, 24th for dave 30th for heath not that different but i do think heath did you have sutton ahead of judy is that why i put this in here yep okay so that must be it uh dave has them back to back okay so this is why i put them in here dave has judy 21 and sutton 22 and non-ppr. And whereas Heath has Sutton 19 and Judy 26.

And then in full PPR, Dave has also them back-to-back. Judy 24, Sutton 25. Heath has Sutton 24 and Judy 29. So it's back-to-back for Dave, but he prefers Judy. Heath, you clearly prefer Sutton. Yeah, I don't know if I would go as far as to say i clearly prefer sutton but i do prefer sutton slightly um and it's probably just like and this is the type of thing i've said before but i've seen courtland sutton be good in the nfl before um yeah and it wasn't because he had a a

world-class quarterback he was just and i i love what he can do downfield. I think he's more likely to be that guy catching the home run balls from Russ, but I don't, I wouldn't want to bet anything of significance on which one of those two guys is going to be better. Neither do I, which is why they're back to back for me. And I've got Judy a little bit higher because I think he's just maybe a little bit more athletic, maybe a little bit faster, and hopefully he'll be healthy and ready to go this year where he looked like he was going to break out in that first game and got a ton of targets and a half of football, and then he had a high ankle sprain,

and the season really got away from him then. I hope he plays better with Russ than he did with the other quarterbacks. He was under 10 PPR points per game each of his last two years. If he can jump to 13 PPR points per game, that's on par with maybe a top 30 wide receiver. That's based on last year. If he's at 14 PPR points per game, that's on par with the top 24 receiver based on last year and the year before. Lockett had at least 14 PPR points per game each of the last two years.

Metcalf was at 13.9 last year, 16.6 in 2020. And Russ is throwing more in Denver, we think, than he did in Seattle. So I think... Oh, man. Yeah, I disagree, Dave. There's plenty of opportunity for both.

I broke up again, didn't I? Yeah, you and I are always breaking up, Dave. There's plenty of opportunity for both. I broke up again, didn't I? Yeah, you and I are always breaking up, Dave. Oh, man. Yeah, so, you know, the thing that I encountered yesterday in our live draft was I couldn't wait on Sutton. I thought maybe it was going to be a situation where I just would take Sutton because he'd be later. I'd let someone take Judy, and then I'd take Sutton. And that did happen, but it was going to be a situation where I just would take Sutton because he'd be, because he'd be later.

I'd let someone take Judy and then I'd take Sutton. And that did happen, but it was three picks later. So Sutton or Judy went off the board with the 49th pick. And then I was on the clock three picks later. I knew Sutton wasn't going to get back to me almost two full rounds later, about a round and a half later. So I had to take them there.

So, you know, it doesn't really matter how different you have them in your rankings. You have to take them probably within the same round or within, within 12 picks. Like if Judy comes off the board, you might have to take Sutton with your next pick. You might not be able to wait to get Sutton with, with your second pick, if that makes sense. So I think they're going to get closer and closer to them. Maybe what people thought at the beginning when the original trade happened. It's like Judy, I feel like Judy had all the momentum. Now Sutton's stealing it back a little bit.

But that's a bit of a rankings dispute here at the wide receiver position. Let's read some emails from Steve in Denver. Hey, John, Terrell, Eddie, Rod, and Shannon. Terrell. Those are definitely Raiders. Yeah, those are Raiders. I just acquired pick 202.

Which quarterback should I take? Are they all going to be available? Should be. It's Willis. I have pick at the highest. But you say it in a way that sounds sad. Oh, I don't. I'm updating all of my dynasty position rankings this week.

Quarterback is first, and the rankings are done. The article will be done probably 20 minutes after we get off of this podcast. And one of the main takeaways was that I did not have a rookie quarterback in my top 24 dynasty quarterbacks. Wow. I don't think amazing. Malik Willis was the only one I was really excited about. And I just feel crushed by how far he fell and what the NFL,

the rest of the NFL said about him. I think that all the quarterbacks are in a bit of trouble. Pickett probably has, I mean, I think Pickett's got a chance to start week one. I think he could unseat Trubisky in training camp.

But I agree with what a lot of people are saying about Pickett, which is he doesn't seem to have that high of a ceiling. What I'm worried about, and you didn't ask me about Ritter or Corral,

was that they could be replaced as soon as next year because they were taken with such low draft capital. Theoretically, the same thing could be said of Willis, but I wonder if Willis will have a little bit more time to develop because Tannehill's the starter in Tennessee. Yeah, that's going to do it for today's show. I'm sorry we didn't get to more emails. I will get to them later in the week.

We still have two more episodes, Thursday and Friday. FantasyFootballToday at CBSi.com. I also had a joke that I was going to say. Oh, yeah, this won't be the last time you hear this, Heath. I guarantee it. If I say a joke that I think is as funny as this one is, it's not though. At 53 minutes into a show, I know we don't have our full audience, so I'm just going to have to say it again. Can we appreciate the fact that the University of Pittsburgh has now given us a place kicker whose last name is Blewett and a quarterback whose last name is Pickett? That's pretty bad, right? It's not a joke.

That's just a statement. It's kind of a fact. Yeah. Well, it's something. It's jokey. But that's it for today's show. Thief Cummings back in action. Thief and I already recorded FFT in five.

If you're on YouTube and you want to check that out, otherwise you can hear it on Thursday morning in our fantasy football today in five channel. Make sure you're subscribing to that podcast as well. Thanks a lot to Dave as well. I'm Adam and we'll talk to you tomorrow on fantasy football.