Fantasy Football Today - Veterans Who Could be Affected by the NFL Draft (04/27 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 27, 2021

If you have Julio Jones, Tee Higgins or Will Fuller on your Fantasy team, are you getting nervous? What if the Falcons, Bengals or Dolphins select a TE or WR? We go over these types of scenarios and f...igure out which players could be affected by the NFL Draft. Let's start with the players who could gain the most (6:40) and those who could lose the most (9:45) as the draft unfolds ... What kind of impact do rookie WRs and TEs have on veterans (12:30)? What does recent history tell us and how will it translate in 2021? Also, do teams that draft WRs in Round 1 throw the ball more than they did the previous season (17:45)? We put it all in perspective ... News and notes (23:30) and then a longer look at the QBs (31:40), RBs (35:40), WRs (42:00) and TEs (51:00) who could gain or lose value during the NFL Draft. Can we get excited about Daniel Jones if the Giants draft a WR? Is Myles Gaskin about to be out of a job? What about Ronald Jones? We also discuss Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews and many more ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Want in the Podcast League? Try our NFL Draft contest! https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/permalink/1115877195573244/ 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:21 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. So what if the Cincinnati Bengals or the Miami Dolphins or the Atlanta Falcons add a wide receiver? What would that do for the quarterbacks of those teams? What would that do for the wide receivers and tight ends on those teams? We'll look at some historical trends and give the fantasy analysis for you right now. On Fantasy Football Today, welcome to the show.
Starting point is 00:01:46 It is Tuesday, April 27th. We are two days away from the NFL draft. We got some news from around the NFL, and we got Dave Richard and Heath Cummings here. What's up, Dave? Dave, let me ask you something. Give me the most, in your opinion, the most surprising thing that's going to happen in the top 10 in the NFL draft. No defensive players taken.
Starting point is 00:02:06 That would be... When you look at mock drafts, you'd probably say, oh, that's not really that surprising because everybody's looking at mock drafts. But think about the history of the NFL draft. When's the last time the first 10 picks of the draft were all offensive players? I think, didn't Ryan Wilson
Starting point is 00:02:21 just say this was like 1952 or something? I didn't hear Ryan Wilson say anything was like 1952 or something? No. I didn't hear Ryan Wilson say anything about it. Ben, were you there? He was on the podcast, Dave. I haven't listened to it yet. It was a long time ago. I'll check. It was like an hour into the show or something.
Starting point is 00:02:38 Maybe that's not even what he... Yeah, no. Do you know the answer, Dave? When was the last time? No. I don't have a clue. I just think it would be very surprising if it happened. Hit up Google here. Heath, tell me your thoughts on the 2022 draft class. Well, I think that
Starting point is 00:02:53 the quarterback out of North Carolina is likely my number one prospect. He's really good. In 2019, he's had a Division I-A record with 38 touchdown passes, most ever for a freshman. Okay, I'm seeing here there has never been,
Starting point is 00:03:11 not in the common era, 1967, has there been an NFL draft with no defensive players in the top 10. Let me see if I can find a little bit more on that. Somebody just text Ryan. He probably knows. Okay. Yes, we got a question. Might as well address this right off the bat.
Starting point is 00:03:30 We got a question. It's a good question for you people in Dynasty if you're trading your future picks or trading for future picks. Is the 2022 class going to be better or worse than the 2021 class? That's hard to say, but I'm thinking no. I think it's going to be worse.
Starting point is 00:03:45 For sure, right now, this week, it's going to be worse than the 2021 class. We get like a month into the season, it's probably going to be better than the 2021 class because we'll be excited about them and we will have seen some of the 2021 players fail. My rule would be
Starting point is 00:04:02 right now, I am very happy to use 22 picks, and this applies to most years, to go get the guys I feel certain about in this class, and that gets us to the top six. If you're talking about in Superflex, it gets a little deeper in rookie-only drafts. If you're talking about the back half of the first or the second round, I'm very happy to move those picks for 2022 picks. Adam, I can't guarantee that anybody in the world will be alive on Sunday,
Starting point is 00:04:32 much less next year's draft. So I can't guarantee who will be good in the 2022 draft. What a weird quote that was. That was Kyle Shanahan talking about, what was that talking about Jimmy Garoppolo being on the team next year? Garoppolo being on the roster in 2021 a year ago no one was talking about Zach Wilson very few people were talking about Kyle Pitts Jalen Waddle wasn't quite as big of a name there's a Trey Lance wasn't really on the radar we were all starting to settle into a covet pandemic a lot can change in a year
Starting point is 00:05:05 there i don't think there's a quarterback like trevor lawrence for example who has been a stud for multiple years on the college level who's like a surefire top three pick in the 2022 draft i don't think howell is there yet i don't know if how will is there yet. I don't know if Howell will be there. But I don't know if there's really a player out there that we can look at and say, yep, for sure, superstar stud, start building up a stockpile of 2022 fantasy picks to go get them. I have a question for you.
Starting point is 00:05:38 Okay, so I'm looking at the 1953 NFL draft and position. Good. Okay. This is going to be good. With the NFL draft and position. Good. Okay. This is good. This is going to be good with, with the NFL draft in 48 hours. We're looking at a draft from 60 years ago. To my guy,
Starting point is 00:05:53 Sam Howell. I mean, he was at 10.3 yards per attempt last year, a year after setting a division one, a rookie or freshman record for touchdown passes. I think he does have multiple years of elite production in college. I think he's the guy.
Starting point is 00:06:09 But he doesn't have the same, you know, name recognition as Trevor Lawrence did. True. I mean, this is literally the first time we've talked about Sam Howell on a podcast ever. Oh, yeah. We were talking about Trevor Lawrence when we were talking about Burrow last
Starting point is 00:06:26 year. Trevor Lawrence was an elite, one of the best recruits in a long time. Sam Howell's not Trevor Lawrence. Um, yeah. All right. Okay.
Starting point is 00:06:33 I don't think we have to talk about this anymore, but anyway, they list the player, the positions for each player. And the first pick 1952 was Harry Babcock. And his position is E. End. Oh, end.
Starting point is 00:06:47 Okay. Then we have halfback, quarterback, fullback, quarterback. How about a B? B for Bobby Marleau. His position is just the letter B. Could be a backer. Could be a no. I don't know. Yeah, I think backer is probably right.
Starting point is 00:07:03 He's listed as a running back, so that would make sense. But there's a halfback. The two halfbacks. All right, anyway. So don't forget to join our NFL Draft Facebook contest here. Just look for Fantasy Football Today on Facebook or click the link in the episode description. Remember, whoever's closest to the exact order,
Starting point is 00:07:19 you don't have to give the teams. Just tell me the names as they go, 1 through 10. We have a post there. We have a lot of comments. If you edit your comment, you're disqualified. Do not edit your comment. Don't cheat. Disqualified if you edit your comment. Dave, who's the veteran NFL player? This is what we're talking about today. The veteran NFL player with the most to gain from the NFL draft. Bobby Marlowe. The B, Bobby Marlowe. B, Bobby Marlowe. He might change to an A
Starting point is 00:07:48 if he, you know, improves his technique. I think it's Julio Jones now with this news that he might get traded. I think there isn't anybody else out there with as much to gain or lose. There's a lot of intrigue about him now and where he could be as a
Starting point is 00:08:03 fantasy receiver, depending on where he is but i want to know specifically who's going to gain you think that he's got the most gain or lose no i don't necessarily think he's got the most to gain right so he does i i think you'd probably be looking at one of the second year quarterbacks bur Burrow or Herbert, if they get the type of help that they could really use on offense to have superior firepower, then we're talking about in the case of Herbert, could he get it? If he gets Jalen Waddle, does he end up being a potential top five fantasy quarterback? Now, we can say that he can potentially get there. Would you draft him as that? Probably not.
Starting point is 00:08:43 Burrow is kind of a top 10 quarterback right now. If he gets Jamar Chase or Kyle Pitts, then do you put him right behind Justin Herbert and a head of guys like Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts, and those types of guys, guys that have all kinds of upside. And you kind of bet on that upside with Burrow, even if his offensive line isn't great because he's going to have just this awesome receiving core. Okay, and for the Chargers, they have the 13th overall pick. They have an outside chance of getting one of those top three wide receivers. You see him sometimes mocked at 11 or 12, so 13.
Starting point is 00:09:18 Not too far from there. Heath, how about you? Who's the veteran with the most to gain? Well, I mean, if we're talking relative to what we expect right now i think it has to be mike davis like there's a chance that mike davis could be the feature back in an arthur smith offense um it would be fantastic for him if the falcons did not draft a running back it sure would okay and the falcons just gonna look at everybody's picks they have the first they have the fourth pick we know that they also have the 35th pick It sure would. Okay. And the Falcons, just going to look at everybody's picks.
Starting point is 00:09:45 They have the fourth pick. We know that. They also have the 35th pick and the 68th pick. And this doesn't always matter because, of course, teams can trade up or trade back or whatever. But fourth pick, not going running back. 35th pick, maybe they are going running back there. It would not be outrageous at all.
Starting point is 00:10:01 Well, they have been shopping or listening. Like, they could very easily trade the fourth pick and then take a running back at 15 or 11 or wherever they end up. Okay, so did you say Tua, by the way, Dave? Because you said Burrow and Herbert, but Tua would have to be in that group too, right? Tua could also be in that conversation, but I have a hard time believing that even if they got Chase or Pitts,
Starting point is 00:10:22 that Tua would be draftable. He wouldn't be a top 12 fantasy quarterback. I think for him to get into the top 12, they'd have to go get two of them. Well, they got Will Fuller, and that's one of them. He would probably be right behind Trevor Lawrence
Starting point is 00:10:37 on a list of quarterbacks that you kind of want to have just in case they pop early in the season. So you take him in round 10 plus. Okay. Veteran with the most to lose. Heath, you can kick this off.
Starting point is 00:10:48 Most to lose. James Robinson. Like if Jacksonville uses one of their pick in the first three rounds to go get a running back, that will signal that what he was last year is no more by the same token. Like if they don't, we need to get him back up into the top eight of our running back rankings they have so many picks they have four top 45 picks 125 33 45 and then 65 five picks in the top 65 for jacksonville james robinson good good pick there
Starting point is 00:11:19 dave veteran with the most to lose so let's talk about julio now, because if he stays in Atlanta and they draft Pitts, that's a death knell on him ever getting double digit touchdowns again. And it's probably going to hurt his target volume with Ridley and Pitts there. And I am a believer in Pitts. I think he can be an impact rookie this year, especially in a place like Atlanta, which would also at some point, I would think, address their run game, just maybe not with one of their first two picks. And then if he gets traded, what if he goes to a team like Washington or San Francisco or the Jets, where it's not going to be,
Starting point is 00:11:55 maybe there's still going to be good target volume, but quality of target could be up in the air. There's going to be in Washington, for example, and certainly San Francisco, a receiver on the other side or a tight end on the other side that's going to take work away from him. I would be a little worried about him if he goes to Arizona. I think that would be fun for the Cardinals, and I think the Cardinals are a team that's trying to go all in right now, and to have him and Hopkins on the same team would be fun, but what would the target volume be for him and for Hopkins? That would bring both of them down a little bit.
Starting point is 00:12:26 So I think he's got a lot to lose. Maybe the best thing for him would be for him to stay in Atlanta, for the Falcons to trade down, and for the Falcons to bulk up their defense, which is probably what a lot of Falcons fans would like to see their team actually do. Julio Jones was really sensational last year. He left a couple of games early, but when he was healthy,
Starting point is 00:12:46 I think he averages maybe close to, if not the most, yards per game. He was on pace for 1,600 yards, so I think he's had more than that in a season. But he was on pace for 1,600 yards in the games he did not leave early. That was seven games. That's pretty incredible. 103 catches, 1,600 yards. He is one of the harder guys to do that comparison with because
Starting point is 00:13:06 looking back at past years, most of those years he left games early too. That's true. That's true. But just saying, you might have forgotten how good Julio Jones was. He was terrific last year. And he did that, by the way, in the 1,600 yards, he was on pace for only 143
Starting point is 00:13:22 targets, I think. Something like that. So it wasn't like 170 target season. You know, you said something really interesting, Dave, that the target share would go down. And this is the big question we're going to have to answer for, I think, four players. You know, if you see a wide receiver go 25th overall or something like that,
Starting point is 00:13:40 I'm not sure people are going to freak out about it in terms of what it's going to do to the other receivers on the team. But with the three big receivers, or the big three receivers and Kyle Pitts, I do think, oh no, what's going to happen to the veterans, to the incumbents? So what's your overall take on that?
Starting point is 00:13:59 Are they really going to have a big impact? I have some historical perspective of the last seven years, basically since that 2014 draft, which was Watkins, Evans, Beckham, Kelvin, Benjamin, I believe Brandon Cooks in the first round. But yeah, how much of an impact are these rookies going to have, Dave? I'll let you have the first word here on the Julio Jones, let's say Will Fuller, Kenny Galladay, TJ Hawkinson, anyone who could see their team take a great pass catcher in the first round, T. Higgins as well.
Starting point is 00:14:33 Yeah, T. Higgins and Tyler Boyd I was going to bring up. I think the best case scenario for these rookie receivers is around 100 targets, although that number should go up a little bit. They're playing 17 games this year, not 16, so call it 110 targets. We saw that from a couple of rookie receivers last year, I believe, and they're very talented guys at the top of the receiver list. Chase Waddle-Smith, those guys can certainly command that type of target share right away.
Starting point is 00:15:02 I'm not sure if Pitts can quite get that many targets, but the case could be made that if he goes to Atlanta and the Falcons trade Julio Jones, yeah, I think he can get there. I think that in that offense where they like to use, where they adapt to the players that they have and the skill sets that they have, and here's a player with a rare skill set, yeah, I think Matt Ryan can find 110 plays to throw to Kyle Pitts.
Starting point is 00:15:24 And I think the production can follow there as a rookie. He's just that much of a difference maker that I believe that that could happen. And I know it sounds crazy because it's a tight end. And tight end rookies, they're never supposed to be great. But I think that he's kind of an anomaly to that. Those are the only receivers. But I wouldn't say, all right, these guys are in line for 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:15:47 I don't think anybody necessarily is going to get to a spot where they can replicate what Justin Jefferson did last year. I was looking at that last year, and Jefferson was the guy who obviously had him. He hurt Adam Thielen's targets, and Thielen scored once every five targets, so it didn't matter. But that was a major impact. C.D. Lamb had an impact on Michael Gallup.
Starting point is 00:16:07 I mean, he took targets away from Gallup. I would say like everybody was hurt so often. It's hard to tell, but I think you could say Brandon and I, you probably had an impact on Debo Samuel when they were on the field. The other guys in the first round, like the first,
Starting point is 00:16:23 we don't know about Judy because Cortland Sutton got hurt. So it didn't end up really mattering, but Judy saw a ton of targets. Ruggs and Rager were irrelevant. I think there could be a couple. I just don't know. Like last year, it was the fifth and sixth wide receivers taken that probably had the third and fifth that had the biggest impact. Third being lamb.
Starting point is 00:16:47 Third was lamb. Fifth was Jefferson and sixth was IU. They probably had the biggest impacts in the first, second and fourth really, really didn't. Yeah. And, and I,
Starting point is 00:16:57 I think, you know, Claypool also finished as a top 20 wide receiver and because they threw the ball so much, I don't think he really had a big impact on Juju or Deontay Johnson. And Higgins was really good, but he actually got out-targeted by A.J. Green when Joe Burrow was healthy.
Starting point is 00:17:15 He just not performed him. But that was another team that threw the ball so much. So that was kind of the kind of skewed thing. It's like, yeah, Higgins had a big role. Claypool had a big role. But those two teams were throwing the ball so much. Joe Burrow was throwing 40 times per game. And the Steelers, I think they led the NFL in past attempts or second maybe.
Starting point is 00:17:33 But I don't know. I went back. I looked at the last seven drafts and just the wide receivers that were drafted in the first round. I think my general takeaway is that great receivers are not really impacted here by rookies, even if the rookies are good. Now, a guy like Michael Gallup and Debo Samuel, they might be. Is Adam Thielen a great receiver? Yeah. He got away with one, though.
Starting point is 00:18:01 Yeah, no, he was one of the exceptions, but also Jefferson had the best year that any of these wide receivers have had. But yeah, no, in the last seven games they played together, you saw that really changed. Jefferson had 68 targets and Thielen only had 50. So it was really more like the second half of the season, the targets really started shifting to Jefferson.
Starting point is 00:18:20 But yeah, you know, like Sammy Watkins, if he impacted anybody as a rookie, it was Scott Chandler. For Odell Beckham, it didn't really apply. Like Hakeem Nix had a much worse season, but Hakeem Nix was at the end of his career and wasn't very good at that point. Greg Olson, okay? Kelvin Benjamin comes in, gets 146 targets as a rookie. And Greg Olson had a better year than he had the previous year. But Steve Smith was on the had the previous year. But Steve
Starting point is 00:18:45 Smith was on the team the previous year, and Steve Smith wasn't on the team. So there were so many circumstances where it was hard to really draw conclusions. But here's one thing I did notice. Teams that drafted rookie wide receivers in the first round, there have been 28 in the last seven years. 18 of them threw more that year when they drafted a wide receiver. And 13 of them threw more that year when they drafted a wide receiver and 13 of them threw at least 40 times more. So I thought that was interesting. Um, you know, did the Niners throw more because they drafted IUK? No, they threw more because their defense wasn't as good. Did the Cowboys throw more because they drafted lamb? Maybe, but also their defense was horrible. So I don't know if it's, you know, if it's really a connection,
Starting point is 00:19:26 but I did think that was interesting. 18 of 28 threw more than they did the previous year when they drafted a rookie in the first round, a wide receiver in the first round. And 13 of 28 threw at least 40 more passes. What do you guys think about that? Makes sense. The majority used their new playmaker in their offense. In theory, it's the idea of, okay, we're going to back and look at the last seven years of teams that draft a running back.
Starting point is 00:20:06 Do they throw less and run more because they feel like they have to because they added this young running back? Yeah, it's worth looking at. But I do think that's going to be a big question that people have. If the Falcons take Pitts, or let's not rule out the Falcons taking Jamar Chase or whoever their favorite wide receiver is. If the Bengals take a wide receiver, if the Dolphins take a wide receiver,
Starting point is 00:20:29 if the Giants take a wide receiver, what is that going to do to these established veterans? And how much are you going to really dock them? I mean, let's just take it case by case real quick. If the Falcons take Kyle Pitts,
Starting point is 00:20:44 are you going to move Calvin Ridley or Julio Jones down? Is Jones still on the team? Yes. He's the one I'm going to move down. I won't move either down because if they take Kyle Pitts in the first round, then I'm going to have to completely change my projected pass attempts for them.
Starting point is 00:20:59 Right. Again, that goes back to what I just said right about the 10 tendencies. Oh, and by the said, right about the 10 tendencies. Um, if the, Oh, and by the way, the teams that I, I think I found that the teams that threw more were typically the ones that drafted the wide receivers that panned out.
Starting point is 00:21:14 Okay. There was a stretch where we had the first round, right? Receiver. Almost everyone sucked. Corey Coleman and Corey Davis was bad as a rookie. And, and John Ross,
Starting point is 00:21:23 you know, and Mike Williams was, was, I think he was injured. And John Ross, you know, and Mike Williams was, I think he was injured. But, you know, there were a lot of really bad first round picks for a while there. So anyway, Bengals take Jamar Chase. What are you doing to Boyd and Higgins? Slight. Yeah. Slight downgrade.
Starting point is 00:21:42 Slight downgrade. Slight downgrade. I don't think I'm going to be real interested in boyd in half or non-ppr and i'll be disappointed for higgins i'm not going to feel good about starting him most weeks so he'll probably be in that number three range i might even put boyd ahead of higgins in full ppr but i would believe that jamar chase would be the best receiver on cincinnati yeah i probably wouldn't go that far. How about the Dolphins at six? They take Devante Smith.
Starting point is 00:22:11 He would be the only Devante I'd be drafting. What about Will Fuller? What about Adams? Yeah. Will Fuller. And Mike Kosicki, I think, would potentially really get hit. That's the thing. How much does Mike Gusecki really have to lose?
Starting point is 00:22:30 Well, I look at the splits for Gusecki each of the last two years, and his production went way up after Preston Williams got hurt. And they already added Will Fuller. Yeah. So what are you expecting from Mike Gusecki? Okay, then we're on the same page. Nothing. Not much.
Starting point is 00:22:45 You're hoping that he can have a couple of games with 70 yards and a couple of games with a touchdown and maybe one of those three games. Right. He's a late-round tight end. I think I would still take Fuller ahead of Smith. Okay. I don't think it would be a lot, and then Parker would be behind both. I'll skip Detroit for now.
Starting point is 00:23:07 We'll talk about Hawkinson later, but let's say the giants take Jalen Waddle. I've seen that mocked a lot. Waddle see Waddle is the one that I think would be the, have the least impact because I think he's the gets the fewest catches, but he makes so many big plays, you know? So he wouldn't necessarily eat into the other production in terms of target share. It would be kind of interesting, him and Galladay both could be
Starting point is 00:23:30 high yards per catch guys, which could help. But, all right, so Waddle goes to the Giants. How much, Heath, would it impact Galladay and, say, Shepard? Galladay, not at all. I would have even less interest in Sterling Shepard. Makes sense. Yep. Which I don't have very much right now.
Starting point is 00:23:46 And then how about Evan Ingram? He's not in my top 18 tight ends. Okay. All right. Hey, listen, the NFL draft is here, baby. The FFT crew is going to be live for all three days of the draft, breaking down the fantasy impact of the picks. So join Jamie, Dave Heath, NFL analysts like Pete Prisco and Ryan Wilson,
Starting point is 00:24:04 former players like Brady Quinn and Brian McFadden on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday on the Fantasy Football Today YouTube channel. This is youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. This is where you're going
Starting point is 00:24:18 for your NFL draft coverage. Get your questions answered in the chat room and start your 2021 fantasy football prep early. And remember, everything is live youtube.com slash fantasy football today. Quickly, the news and notes here. So yeah, Atlanta, they're listening to trade offers for Julio Jones, but their GM kind of said, eh, we'll listen to trade offers for anyone. But he was specifically asked about Julio Jones,
Starting point is 00:24:42 who has a pretty onerous contract. Green Bay said Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback for the foreseeable future, and they're working on a contract extension. And let's see if you guys know this one. Green Bay has not selected a running back, wide receiver, or tight end in the first round since blank.
Starting point is 00:25:03 No? Wait. I feel like it's been a while. Adams wasn't a first round pick. He was a second round pick. Yeah. I don't know. Jordy wasn't a first round pick.
Starting point is 00:25:17 Was he? No, I believe he was a second or a third. Aaron Rogers. No, not quite. It's a Jordan. It's a Jordan love last year. So running back? No, not quarterback. They took Jordan Love last year. So running back, wide receiver, tight end.
Starting point is 00:25:29 You guys have 10 seconds. Yeah, I'm drawing a blank, Adam. Javon Walker in 2002. Javon Walker. 20 years. Yeah, that's almost 20 years since they took a running back,
Starting point is 00:25:44 wide receiver, or tight end. Ryan Wilson helped me out here with his tweet, by the way. This could be the first time in 40 years at the NFL draft that a defensive player isn't among the first seven picks. And if it doesn't happen until pick nine, it'll be the latest defender. The latest that a defender was
Starting point is 00:25:59 drafted since 1957 when the Chicago Cards took Jerry Tubbs at number 10. So number 10, 1957. Wow. All right, more news. Baker Mayfield. Oh, this is interesting, Dave.
Starting point is 00:26:15 I know you've talked about this a lot. Baker Mayfield addressed how he was more productive after the Beckham injury last year. He said, where we were at before his injury happened and on an underthrown ball by me, we truly didn't have a true identity on offense at that point. It took our bye week, week nine,
Starting point is 00:26:33 right in the middle of the season to really sit down and do a self-scout for us to grow. That's why we had the growth that we had from the first half to the second half of the year. I wouldn't say that it's because we weren't throwing to Beckham, so it's not about that. The narrative can be what it is, but we're looking forward
Starting point is 00:26:47 to getting back to work together. Good for them. I don't think there are going to be many people that are going to be pumped to take Odell Beckham with a top 30 pick anymore. I think he's past that. And there will be people who are going to be excited to get him if he falls into round five. That seems to be a safe place to draft him, knowing what the upside is, and the downside is bad. You don't want to throw away your fifth-round pick, but way better than throwing away your second or third-round pick. I feel like I've been getting him later than that.
Starting point is 00:27:17 I'm going to just check his ADP. I feel like Galladay is kind of round five, and Beckham's after that. That should be the case. Let's see. There will be people who are looking for kind of round five and Beckham's after that. That should be the case. Let's see. But there will be people who are looking for him in round five. Well, since April 1st on NFC, Kenny Galladay is round five slash six. He's 61st
Starting point is 00:27:34 and Beckham is 81st. Oh, wow. I'm 86th. Overall in your rankings, you're 86th? Yeah. And that's without rookies, so he probably won't be in my top eight rounds. Interesting. Okay.
Starting point is 00:27:50 That's about it. Seattle trying out running back Deontay Foreman, and Tom Pellicero of NFL Network says that running back Javante Williams out of UNC could be a surprise first-round pick. I wouldn't even consider it that much of a surprise. I've seen enough people that have Javante Williams as their number one running back.
Starting point is 00:28:09 Just so thankful the Chiefs traded out of the first round so they can't make that mistake again. Alright, we're going to take a quick break here on Fantasy Football today. We'll talk more about the veterans who have the most to gain or lose. We'll also read your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Remember,
Starting point is 00:28:30 our next show is going to be a mailbag. Apple podcast reviews, please send them in and your emails. Again, that's fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We will be right back. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe.
Starting point is 00:28:59 Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Well, as you are looking at your dynasty rosters or just getting ready for your drafts and you're wondering who's going to be affected the most by the NFL draft, keep in mind here's some of the noteworthy teams and the types of draft picks they have, the capital they have on draft day. Houston does not have a first or a second round pick. Seattle has only three picks,
Starting point is 00:29:26 second rounder, fourth rounder, and a seventh rounder. Obviously, everything's subject to change, can make some trades, but three picks for the Seahawks.
Starting point is 00:29:34 And that seems kind of significant to me, Heath, because they're not probably going to throw that much based on everything we've seen. And I think I'd be pretty surprised if they added a wide receiver in the second round, fourth round, seventh round, maybe, but I don't think they added a wide receiver in the second round.
Starting point is 00:29:45 Fourth round, seventh round, maybe, but I don't think they're going to be in that market. No, I don't anticipate them adding a wide receiver. They've got two good ones, and I don't know if I'm willing to... They need to make their defense better if they really don't want to throw that much. I'm not sure I've completely bought into the whole
Starting point is 00:30:02 there's going to be a significant change in Seattle from their past run splits. Jacksonville and Miami are loaded with picks. They both have four in the top 50. Jacksonville has four in the top 45. Miami has four in the top 50. I think
Starting point is 00:30:18 the Jets have two first round picks. And so does California it looks like. Yeah, who the hell did I meet? Is it the Chargers? No, oh, it's Baltimore. Okay. I was trying to put the list of teams that have two first-round picks,
Starting point is 00:30:33 and instead of B-A-L, I put C-A-L. So Baltimore has two first-round picks, 27 and 31. The Jets have two first-round picks and three top 34 picks. Arizona has six picks. Why did I, that's not that many rounds one, two,
Starting point is 00:30:48 five, six, and seven. So that's actually pretty significant. So in all likelihood, what's that? I was going to say it's significant for those wondering what they're going to do with their run game.
Starting point is 00:30:57 I think they might be done at that position and not add to it. And they're going to roll into the season with Edmonds and Connor. So maybe, maybe they trade out around one. They go the opposite direction of what some people think they're going to it. And they're going to roll into the season with Edmonds and Connor. So maybe, maybe they trade out around one, they go the opposite direction of what some people think they're going to do. And that would give them more capital to go and get a running back if they really need one.
Starting point is 00:31:12 But I think by signing Connor, they kind of signaled that that's their move at running back and they're going to address other positions. So chase and Connor going into 2021 in that backfield for Arizona. Kansas City has picks 58 and 63 in the second round, but they no longer have a first round pick. And Minnesota is interesting because again, it's a team that we usually don't see them throw a lot. They did in the second half of the season, but you know what Mike Zimmer's MO is. They have the 14th pick and everybody seems to think they're going with
Starting point is 00:31:46 a pass rusher, maybe offensive line. Then their next pick is until 78. 14, 78, and 90. Those are their first three picks. So I think Minnesota's pretty interesting. Especially for Adam Thielen, right? You wouldn't want to see them draft a wide receiver
Starting point is 00:32:00 with what we saw Justin Jefferson do to Adam Thielen. Mike Zimmer's still the coach there, right? Yep. They're going cornerback. At 14? That's what they do every year, it seems like. They take a cornerback with an early pick. I'm kind of joking around because they got Patrick Peterson.
Starting point is 00:32:17 I don't think they really need a corner. But go back and look at Zimmer's teams. He's gone crazy on cornerbacks early in drafts. All right. So then if we go position by position, players with the most to gain or lose go back and look at Zimmer's teams. He's gone crazy on cornerbacks early in drafts. Alright, so then if we go position by position, players with the most to gain or lose will pick up some of the names that we didn't mention earlier. Obviously, Burrow and Tua and Herbert. We talked about the year two quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:32:37 Matt Ryan himself is really interesting. He played pretty well when he had both Julio and Ridley on the field last year. So if they add Kyle Pitts, let's say, or Jamar Chase, and they keep Julio, does he crack your top 12? Probably, because I would expect them to throw the ball a lot more. Yep.
Starting point is 00:32:59 I think going at the guy out of this list that we kind of left off, if you're talking most to gain or lose, I think it would probably be Cam Newton because Cam Newton could lose his job on Thursday night, but the Patriots trade up to that number four pick or a little bit higher and draft a quarterback. Also the Patriots on Thursday night could go get him a good wide receiver and he could have a good wide receiver and Hunter Henry and Johnny Smith and no
Starting point is 00:33:23 threat to his playing time. And by the way, do you feel like this whole conversation that we're having today is going to be sort of overstated? Because typically rookies don't do that much. You know, they just don't have that much of an impact. Sometimes they really do, but most of the time they don't. Except this class just feels different with Pitts and at least those three wide receivers. But we had heard for a while this is a great wide receiver class.
Starting point is 00:33:53 So, I don't know. Dave, overall, are we kind of making something out of nothing? No, because we've really focused on those top three receivers and Pitts. And I think Heath was spot on with Cam Newton that there's really so much for him to gain or lose because he could get replaced or he could get help for his offense. But I also think there's going to be a couple of teams that could use a second receiver that's an upgrade over what they have. Green Bay, for example.
Starting point is 00:34:21 If they get Bateman or Kadarius Toney to replace Alan Lazard or Marquez Valdez-Scantling, I think that helps their offense. I think it helps Aaron Rodgers. It makes Aaron Rodgers, you might feel a little bit better about taking him after the MVP year that he just surprised us with. There could be a couple of other offenses where things happen that maybe make you a little nervous, like Buffalo. Let's say Buffalo, they talked about they needed to improve their run game. Let's say that they
Starting point is 00:34:48 just throw a bunch of picks together. They move up and they draft Najee Harris. Well, that tells you that Josh Allen's probably not going to be running as much, and they probably won't have him throw as much as he did last year. That would make me a little bit nervous to have him as my number two quarterback. And I would be a little nervous to have Najee Harris as a top 12 to 15-ish running back because Josh Allen's there. And Josh Allen could certainly take some touchdowns away from him. So there are definitely specific situations where if a team upgrades, it could help or hurt other players.
Starting point is 00:35:22 But I feel like it's more specific about those teams and not necessarily so much about the players outside the top three receivers or tight ends outside of Kyle Pitts or any of the running backs. And I got to ask, if the Giants draft Jalen Waddell or Devontae Smith and they've added Kenny Galladay
Starting point is 00:35:41 and they've added Kyle Rudolph and they get Saquon Barkley back. Where are you going to rank Daniel Jones? 19th. So, right around there. Probably a little bit past there. What does that mean? Later.
Starting point is 00:35:57 Later, later. Okay. Like, I'd still rather throw the dart at Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick. He'd be right there with Tua. Andy Dalton or Daniel Jones? Oh, Daniel Jones. Come on.
Starting point is 00:36:12 What about you, Heath? What do you mean? What about you? That's not a laughable question. I think it's... No, it's not. Daniel Jones has never been as good as Andy Dalton. I'm looking for a quarterback that has a chance to get off to a good start.
Starting point is 00:36:26 If we're talking that late in the draft, or if we're talking about a, a number two quarterback for my two quarterback or super flex team, I will take Daniel Jones over Andy Dalton, but he will be closer to Andy Dalton than Trevor Lawrence for sure. Okay. Running backs, James Robinson,
Starting point is 00:36:40 Mike Davis, Benny Snell, but the Tampa Bay backfield too, because I'm seeing mock drafts that have Tampa Bay going with Travis Etienne or somebody like that. That would be a nightmare. I would get why they would do it because that's a long-term play and all their running backs right now are on short deals
Starting point is 00:36:56 or in the case of Keyshawn Vaughn, like, you know, mid-round rookie deal. So he's expendable anyway. So they could draft a running back for the future and then like if they get naja harris that would be a total nightmare because they wouldn't have they wouldn't be compelled to use him the same way the steelers would use him because they've got four net and they've got geo and i would be i would actually be very surprised if the bucks use their first pick on a running back well i think this could move the other direction too, though. Ronald Jones has been a guy who there's been a little bit of buzz about possibly getting dealt,
Starting point is 00:37:30 which would make sense since they brought back Leonard Fournette and had a Giovanni Bernard and said Keyshawn Vaughn's going to have a breakout year. It would be a boon to the Tampa Bay running backs if they didn't draft a running back, but they traded Ronald Jones for a fourth. It might be a boon to Ronald Ronald Jones, too, depending on where he goes.
Starting point is 00:37:48 What about Myles Gaskin? Is there a scenario where the Dolphins take a running back and Myles Gaskin's stock doesn't plummet? No. Day three. Oh, sure. What about day two? What if it's in the third round?
Starting point is 00:38:04 What if it's Kenneth Gainwell? What if it's Kenneth Gainwell? You know be okay if it was one of those guys. I guess I should take it back. If it's not one of the top five running backs, then I think that Gaskin could be okay. A guy they take third round, fourth round, something like that. I agree. At least there would be a chance for Gaskin to continue in that
Starting point is 00:38:39 lead role. We saw it from the Dolphins a lot last year. A lot, a lot. Their number one running back played 60 plus percent of the snaps. I think it was the dolphins a lot last year like a lot a lot where their their number one running back played 60 plus percent of the snaps i think it was seven or eight games last year where their lead back had 70 plus percent of the snaps so a little bit different than what we were expecting because it's a patriots type of coaching staff they like to mix and match their backs maybe not so much maybe they have leaned enough on one guy they've proven that they can be an offense where not necessarily a dominant workhorse not not like Derrick Henry, but someone who can still be good
Starting point is 00:39:08 for 15 touches a week. Fantasy managers would like that. If the Dolphins did not spend an early round pick on a running back, Gaskin would be saved. Okay. Any other running backs you want to talk about or shall we move on? How about Miles Sanders? There's been rumors that the Philadelphia Eagles could add another running back in round two or three. They've got three picks in those two rounds. They kept Boston Scott. But if they add another running back, then our guy Miles Adam is going to struggle to ever see the potential that we saw in him once upon a time. Yeah, I think it'd be interesting if they do that in round three, we'll say, because two would obviously have a different effect. But if they do that in round three and it's someone we not sure that we're in it.
Starting point is 00:40:05 I'm not enamored with this running back class. No, no, they're flawed. Every single one. I don't think, I don't think. Doug Peterson hasn't been enamored with giving a running back 20 touches either.
Starting point is 00:40:14 Yeah, but he's not the coach anymore. That's true. We're there to, but, and by the way, you're wrong about that. He made,
Starting point is 00:40:22 whether it was 20 touches, I can't say. I just wanted Adam to do this. Yes, you're wrong about that. He made, whether it was 20 touches, I can't say. I just wanted Adam to do this. Yes, you're wrong about that. Miles Sanders was the feature back. But I wouldn't really be too scared of a third round running back, especially if it's a guy who's more of a pass catcher,
Starting point is 00:40:37 you know, that could just fill the Boston Scott role. And in that case, I wouldn't. But that still takes away from Miles Sanders. I wouldn't think Miles Sanders would necessarily be a 50 catch guy, but I still think he's no worse than a third round pick in fantasy. I wouldn't really be too scared by a third round, by an NFL draft third round running back. No, I agree. It's the difference between, but Jacobs and Montgomery are currently third round picks. That's why I brought those two up. Yeah, right. They're all going to go pretty similar. I think if I had to guess, I would say it would go,
Starting point is 00:41:07 what do you think, Montgomery, Sanders, Jacobs? Right now. Oh, right now I think it's Sanders for sure is first. You think so? Yeah. But I don't know. Well, let's, I guess. I haven't looked at the ADP.
Starting point is 00:41:21 I think I have it up. And while you look that up. 2022 draft. Just keep in mind where Nick Sirianni came from. You know, the guy is BFFs with Frank Reich and Reich clearly
Starting point is 00:41:30 liked having multiple running backs at his disposal every week. One much like Taylor got hot toward the end of the year. He said much like Doug Peterson,
Starting point is 00:41:41 Miles Sanders, 27th. Montgomery 31. Jacobs 35. I'm surprised that Montgomery's getting that much love. I felt like people were going to be totally sour on
Starting point is 00:41:57 Miles Sanders. We might get to August and people are going to be sour on all three. I don't think it's really like I'm impressed with people. David Montgomery was a top six running back last year, a top five running back last year. And people aren't just pushing him up into the end of the first round.
Starting point is 00:42:17 He's fallen two rounds from where last year's production deserved to go. Yeah, you're right. I agree. All right, let's go to wide receiver here i got one more run oh yeah go ahead go ahead melvin gordon who right now looks like someone that you'd be very happy to settle for as an as an rb2 but denver if they don't trade up for a quarterback maybe if they trade back the other way because they can't get a quarterback they get more capital they add a young running back back, and they need depth at that position. Mike Boone, I don't think, is all that they're going to go into the season
Starting point is 00:42:51 with behind Melvin Gordon. Do they still have Royce Freeman? They do have Royce Freeman, too. I don't know if that's a needle mover. Okay, so let's go to wide receiver now. And we talked to Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, T. Higgins, Devontae Parker, Will Fuller, Sterling Shepard, Kenny Galladay. Would you be bothered at all if the Packers took a wide receiver in round one?
Starting point is 00:43:16 Would it affect Devontae Adams? No, I don't think it would change my value on Adams. I think it would change my value on Robert Tunyon. I know we're not at that point yet, but obviously it would be bad for MVS and Lazard. Adams has been amazing three straight years. 2019 didn't have a lot of touchdowns, but still was great when he played in 12 games.
Starting point is 00:43:37 However, in the last three seasons, the Packers have not had a second receiver, tight end or wide receiver, whatever, get 700 yards or 90 targets. So just something to keep in mind. They need to address that position. Do you think there's any chance the Cowboys at 10 take a wide receiver?
Starting point is 00:43:59 More likely they take Pitts, right? They were linked to Pitts. They got out that they liked Pitts a lot. It just doesn't seem like Pitts will be there at 10. But yeah, if Pitts is there, I mean, I think they would take him. But I wouldn't rule out them taking a wide receiver, just saying best player available like they did last year. Well, how many years in a row can you do that when your defense is sloppy?
Starting point is 00:44:20 When you're Jerry Jones, I think you could do it. Yeah, I think if they do that, you might have to seriously consider Dak as QB too. Because then the whole they were on pace for 700 passes last year becomes a little bit more relevant. Marquise Brown.
Starting point is 00:44:39 I've got a big circle around Marquise Brown. I'm ready to already say, big loser, Marquise Brown. What do you to already say, big loser, Marquise Brown. What do you think? Ravens have two late first-round picks. It's definitely in play where they add even...
Starting point is 00:44:55 Remember, they already brought in Sammy Watkins. It's not that Watkins is going to change a whole lot, but it's someone new that they think is an improvement over Willie Sneed. And if they add another rookie receiver, I, it almost depends on who it is. Like if it's Kadarius,
Starting point is 00:45:09 Tony, isn't that kind of the same receiver that they already have in Marquise Brown? If it's Rashad Bateman, that's a different type of receiver. It's a physical outside guy that could, that could probably hurt Mark Andrews more than it hurts Marquise Brown. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:45:24 I'm not probably going. Brown's a borderline number three only because of his upside and his potential. And I think he would still have that same upside and potential. They do like 175-pound wide receivers, and there's a bunch of them in that range of the draft. I did a lot of research on Brown this week, and it seemed to me that when, when,
Starting point is 00:45:45 when his, his was, when his a dot went down, he did better. And that happened in the second half of the year and into the playoffs. And he, he also got utilized more in the red zone, did a lot of crossing routes and over routes and stuff like that.
Starting point is 00:46:00 And defenses just could, there were no defensive backs that could hang with him. And Lamar Jackson, most of the time hit him right on the money. A couple times, he missed him a little. But if they don't add anything, I think it helps him.
Starting point is 00:46:12 Maybe he crawls back into that top 24 range after all. There are going to be people that took him last year that are going to go, ugh, I don't want him. But I think he could settle in anywhere from like 23 to 33
Starting point is 00:46:23 in wide receiver rankings based on what happens in the draft. He finished very strong and the Ravens finished very strong. They went five and one in their last six games. And in those six games, he had six touchdowns and 338 yards. It's not a ton of yards, but I think you have to, you have to expect a high touchdown rate. That's what Lamar Jackson's done. Do you disagree with that, Heath? I know you talk about that a lot. You have to expect a high touchdown rate, yes.
Starting point is 00:46:53 There are limits. I wouldn't ever expect a player to score once every 10%, like a 10% touchdown rate. That's too high, even for somebody like Mark Andrews. But no, I think you should expect Marquise Brown to have a higher touchdown rate than a player of his other production would normally. So these are his last eight games. This includes the postseason. He caught 65% of his targets, 14.4 yards per catch.
Starting point is 00:47:20 His ADOT was under 12 yards, 11.7. That's low for him. It was at 15 through the first 10 games of the season and six touchdowns, three from six yards or closer, which to me could make all the difference in the world. And when you think about the Ravens, when they get inside the five, what do you expect them to do? They're either going to hammer it with one of the running backs or Lamar Jackson's going to pull it back on an RPO and take it in himself. But he still had half of his touchdowns in those final eight games from close range. If that somehow manages to keep up, then he's got potential to be a very useful part of your fantasy squad.
Starting point is 00:47:56 I'll give you the full numbers from those eight games. Well, I'll just, I'll multiply them by two, right? What he would have done in 16 games, Last six regular season plus two postseason games. 74 catches, 1,068 yards, 12 touchdowns on 114 targets. So that's really good. And a very high touchdown rate. 12 touchdowns
Starting point is 00:48:18 on 114 targets, which is probably a little unrealistic, but still 74 catches over 1,000 yards, 12 touchdowns. That's what he did. That's what he was on pace for in his last eight games. I don't want to see them. If I have Marquise Brown...
Starting point is 00:48:30 16-game or 17-game pace? 16-game. I'm not doing 17-game paces yet. But if I have Marquise Brown, I obviously don't want to see them at anyone. And I'll ask you guys about Mark Andrews in just a second. Are there any other wide receivers that you think could be impacted in this
Starting point is 00:48:45 draft? I mean, like if the lions don't take a running back in the first two rounds, one of the receivers, a receiver in the first two rounds, one of their wide receivers almost has to get 110 targets. If they can say healthy, sure. And I guess the one you would probably
Starting point is 00:49:09 be most excited about would be Quintez Cephas just because he's young and could take a step in his second year. But we're going to have to draft a Lions wide receiver if they don't draft one. Yours would be Cephas? I think I would lean Cephas.
Starting point is 00:49:26 Dave, how about you? I'm not ready to lean in any direction. Come on, Lee! Maybe Tyrell just because he's familiar with Anthony Lynn. He's healthy now. Maybe he stays that way, but this is a team that you look at and you figure they're going to play from behind and then you look at their quarterback and you
Starting point is 00:49:42 figure he's not going to take a lot of chances with the football. He may not have as much time to take chances as he would like. I think it directly helps DeAndre Swift and TJ Hawkinson. I don't know if there's a receiver that I would... You want to spend a late pick on Tyrell or Cephas, that's cool. But they've got to do something to start to rebuild their offense. No, that's a Perryman. They need to go out a slot of Cephas.
Starting point is 00:50:05 There should be some excellent options in the second round. That's for sure. Where's the love for Rashad Perryman? Since you did an Azerstead earlier, I have a new favorite Azerstead. What was it? What was my Azerstead?
Starting point is 00:50:21 The Bob Markey's Brown. Oh, okay. Can I just interrupt this entire programming since we're an hour into the show now? Yeah, sure. DeAndre Swift
Starting point is 00:50:33 had 15 touches in five games last year. He averaged 20.8 PPR fantasy points per game. That would have tied him with Derek Henry for the number four running back.
Starting point is 00:50:46 We're not done yet. His new offensive coordinator, Anthony Lynn has had five years in charge of an offensive and offense. The past five years, his number one running back has averaged at least 17 touches. Every one of those years. You love Deandre Swift. You love him.
Starting point is 00:51:04 I mean, how could you not after that step it's pretty good talking about 70 catches for him i think you got to think about now that there's 17 games maybe he gets to 80 catches yep he's got to stay healthy but it's a perfect running back for that for that um for that system and for the scenarios that they're going to be in because we figure they're going to either be in competitive games or playing from behind more often than not. His 17-game pace was 1,771 yards. I don't care. I'm not interested in his 17-game pace. And 20 touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:51:33 20 touchdowns. Yeah, the touchdowns were really strange for a Lions running back. But if you look now, let's go to tight end. Robert Tunyon. What? What was that? Nothing. Robert Tunyon in PPR finished third. TJ Hawkinson finished basically tied for third. One point behind Tunyon. He Tunyon, Logan Thomas and Haw six and Mike Kosicki was seven. A lot of those names could be impacted by the NFL draft.
Starting point is 00:52:10 Now, this is actually the best reminder. A year ago, the Raiders had selected the first wide receiver off the board and then two more in the third round. They took three wide receivers in the first three rounds. And I think people thought that Darren Waller was a loser. And it turns out Darren Waller was just better than all of them and had a great year. So with that said, Tunyon, Hawkinson, Andrews,
Starting point is 00:52:34 we already talked about Kosicki, but those first three, Tunyon, Hawkinson, Andrews. Dave, how much is at stake for these three guys? I don't think there's as much at stake for Hawkinson as there is for the other guys. And that's because the receiving core in Detroit, we just talked about who would you rather have between Tyrell Williams and Quintez Cephas and Brashad Perryman. Those guys could all be relegated to the bench if the Lions draft well. They can add, if they stick in their spot at seven and they take a receiver there,'t matter to me with hockinson what would matter to me is if another receiver that we liked a lot outside of the top three slipped to them in
Starting point is 00:53:10 the second round and they took that guy on top of the stud in the first round then we might say all right hockinson could lose a little bit here because there could be decent enough there's enough there in the receiving cupboard to take work away from Hawkinson, but that's what it'll take. They get Devante Smith in the first round. I'm not going to blink an eyelash. I'll still have Hawkinson as a top five fantasy tight end. Yeah, I think
Starting point is 00:53:35 most of what Dave said, I would say the same thing, except I would just change TJ Hawkinson's name to Mark Andrews because I think it's not like Mark Andrews is in a different class, in my opinion, than these guys, he was behind them in fantasy points because he played two fewer games,
Starting point is 00:53:51 but he was better on a per game basis. And he was much better the year before. So I just, I think that even if the Ravens use the 27th or 29th pick on a wide receiver, Mark Andrews is their number one option as he has been. And I think Hawkinson probably stays in a relatively similar spot. I do worry a little bit that they will add a very good slot wide receiver
Starting point is 00:54:14 because that could infringe on his territory a little bit. It's over the middle of the field. But I'm probably going to have Mark andrews fourth um just because you guys shame me not to rank him where my projections say i should and tj hawkins and fifth even after the draft but i bet that changes if the lions only add one wide receiver and the ravens you know they've got the two first round picks say they spend one of those picks on a wide receiver and it's it's someone who's more of a slot receiver and someone that pushes Sammy Watkins to play outside a little bit more often than maybe we thought it would.
Starting point is 00:54:50 And then that receiver is infringing on Mark Andrews. And maybe that receiver develops chemistry quickly with Lamar Jackson. It's a team that's already going to run a lot. I think there's a case to be made that if the Ravens, or maybe they get aggressive and they move up to get one of the better receivers in the draft. They've been known to draft Alabama guys in the past.
Starting point is 00:55:07 If they get aggressive or if they get a really good receiver, I think that could hurt Mark Andrews. I think he could send his stock down just a little bit, maybe enough to get past Hawkinson and make him tight end five. I think that's the difference is you guys, I think everybody here except for me, has Andrews and Hawkinson pretty close. I've got Andrews projected to score
Starting point is 00:55:28 60 more fantasy points than TJ Hawkinson. So if Mark Andrews gets dinged 10%, 20%, 30%, he's still going to be ahead of TJ Hawkinson. Basically, what I've come to the conclusion of is if Mark Andrews is a great player, he will probably not be impacted by a rookie wide receiver. Depends on the receiver.
Starting point is 00:55:48 And we have more. My thing is we have more evidence that Mark Andrews is a great player than we have that TJ Hawkinson is. Yeah, Hawkinson really wasn't very good last year. I mean, he didn't do a lot with his 101 targets. 67 catches, 723 yards, and six touchdowns. Yeah, he was almost tied for third,
Starting point is 00:56:09 but it was just a really bad year. On the bright side, he has the worst quarterback now. He does, but on the bright side, Marvin Jones and Kenny Galladay aren't there. I know Galladay only played four games, but still. He may have a worse quarterback, but that quarterback's best games typically came in the last season and a half when his
Starting point is 00:56:28 tight end was doing good things. I'm looking at just where he would have finished. Whatever. This is just a lot. I want to be very clear. I like TJ Hawkinson. This is not an anti-TJ Hawkinson thing. I think the tear break is after Andrews and not before.
Starting point is 00:56:44 Okay. That's going to wrap up this discussion and looking forward to reacting to everything from the NFL draft. I do want to make sure we are saving time for emails here. And I got to tell you about the all-new Stitcher podcast app. It has been rebuilt from the ground up to make it easier to listen to podcasts on the go or on the revamped web player. Stitcher is home to all your favorite podcasts from classics like My Favorite Murder, This American Life, and How Did This Get Made?
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Starting point is 00:57:25 So give the all-new Stitcher a try. Download it in the App Store or at stitcherapp.com slash download. All right, stitcherapp.com slash download. Okay, do you guys want to do a real quick debate before the emails? Ready? I'm going to give you 20 seconds each. We
Starting point is 00:57:45 debated this yesterday. It was fun. Would you take Kyle Pitts or Jamar Chase? Whoever your number one wide receiver is. If you're on the clock and you could have your choice of either one, would you take Kyle Pitts or your number one wide receiver? Do I have to start a tight end? Oh, no. I'm sorry. You're an NFL draft team. You're the Falcons
Starting point is 00:58:01 at four or whatever. You have the fourth pick. Kyle Pitts or whoever your number one wide receiver is. I think it depends on how badly I need a wide receiver. If I need a wide receiver badly, I'm taking Chase. If you're a really bad franchise, you need everything. Chase. I think I'm taking Chase. I think he's safer.
Starting point is 00:58:23 Yeah! I win. Thank you, guys. Who told you otherwise? Well, Jamie was doing that thing he does with me where he wasn't necessarily saying he'd take Pitts. He was just refuting every point I made about why I'd take Chase. So it was a day that ended with a why, is what you're saying. Yeah, basically. But yeah, I think it's basically the question is, would you rather have Tyree kill or Travis Kelsey?
Starting point is 00:58:46 And I'd rather have Tyree kill, which is what Emery said, right? That's what we were talking about this with him the other day. Okay. Emails. Dave says, I'm in a PPR league, one quarterback. I don't have to start a tight end. I have the sixth pick and the ninth pick in the rookie draft. My team is pretty loaded, so I can take the best available player.
Starting point is 00:59:07 I suspect Kyle Pitts will be available to me, but where would you rank him amongst the wide receivers? Because they have a tight end slash wide receiver roster spot. Would you take him over Moore, Bateman, et cetera, in this type of league? Yes. Yep. But you wouldn't take him over one of the first three? I would take him sixth in this particular type of league but i think i have him fourth or fifth in my rankings but there's a bit
Starting point is 00:59:31 in my opinion a pretty big teardrop after the sixth pick so i would take him six so give me the other players sorry who would you take ahead of them sure um i think it's the same exact guys that dave has talked about but it's the two running backs harris and etn it's the same exact guys that Dave has talked about, but it's the two running backs, Harris and Etienne. It is the three running backs, Chase and Waddle and Devontae Smith. And then Kyle Pitts is the sixth, but he's in this format. You're having a lot of trouble with running backs and wide receivers today. The three wide receivers. Have I said running back instead of wide receiver a couple times?
Starting point is 01:00:03 What if Devavante Williams ends up going to the Steelers or something? Then he'd be in the mix. You'd have to consider it. Is that a good situation? I think there's a chance for it to be a very good situation, and that's what you're betting on, is the upside.
Starting point is 01:00:20 All right, this is from Tim. Grade the Dynasty trade. Ten teams, one quarterback. Give up CeeDee Lamb and 201 for Ridley and Cooper. I still have the first pick in the draft and 206 and 207. So give up Lamb and 201 for Ridley and Cooper.
Starting point is 01:00:38 I like it. I like getting Ridley and Cooper. For sure. I'd rather have Ridley than Lamb and 201. So do it. Do it. Here's the question. Would you rather have Cooper or 201? Just separately. 11th pick in this draft. Cooper or that pick? Cooper.
Starting point is 01:00:55 Cooper. Alright, this is an A. We're grading it, of course. I'd rather have Cooper than 107. Would you really? I don't think I agree with you there. You just named six, seven players. I named six. Yeah, but then we said maybe Javante Williams.
Starting point is 01:01:13 It's Javante Williams. And you didn't say Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence. I would take Cooper over Lawrence and Javante Williams. Okay. I don't think I'm... Again, it comes down to how badly you need a quarterback there's qualifiers to all these
Starting point is 01:01:28 questions this is the number one pick in a dynasty rookie only draft you tight end premium or you start a tight end or you're good at receiver and running back you go get pits Jason is from where Dave Orange Florida
Starting point is 01:01:44 dear Mookie, Daryl, Keith, and Gary. He's obviously a New Yorker. 86 Mets. 12-team Superflex PPR. I have Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton. I need a quarterback badly. I have the last pick in the rookie draft, 112. I won the league last year.
Starting point is 01:01:59 Tyrod Taylor is sitting there. Would I be nuts to take Tyrod at the 112 or should I draft a rookie and take a chance? Tyrod, and take a chance that Tyrod will be there at 212. Tyrod, of course, Deshaun Watson's back up now with Houston. If there's one of the five rookie quarterbacks there, because it's a super flex, they might not all make it there to 12,
Starting point is 01:02:20 but if one's there, you've got to take the shot on that quarterback. You need help. I would not take Tyrod until 2-12. I think he's fine at 2-12. This is from Dan. Dan is from? Dan is from Muncie, Indiana. What does the 2022 class...
Starting point is 01:02:39 Oh, we already answered this one. What does the 2022 class look like in comparison to the 2021 class? I'm guessing it's going to be... I looked at a mock draft this morning for what it's worth, and it was a lot of defensive players. So when you're talking about an NFL draft that has potentially the first 10 picks or so, or 11, are going to be offense,
Starting point is 01:02:56 obviously that says something about a weak defensive class, but I also think strong offensive class. I would want to be in the 2021 class personally, but it's tough to answer that.
Starting point is 01:03:08 Again, I think it probably won't be as strong at the top, and it may be better deep. Okay.
Starting point is 01:03:16 This is from Eric from a town in Maine. Augusta. Hey, Jordan, Julian, Alex, Jason, and Phillip.
Starting point is 01:03:33 I have no idea. These feel like quarterbacks to me. 10-team half PPR. 0.2 points per carry. 0.4 points per return yard. These might be players who retired this year. Edelman, Alex Smith, and Phillip Rivers retired. Is there a Jordan that retired this year?
Starting point is 01:03:57 No? Nothing? I don't know. Hello? I'm thinking. Podcast going on? And a Jason. I don't know. All right.
Starting point is 01:04:07 10-team league. There's funky scoring. We can keep two players each for one round higher than we drafted, and we can keep them a total of two times. Who would you keep? Kittle in the 12th, last year to keep him. Michael Thomas in the 10th, last year to keep him. J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers in the Jason Witten. Good call, Shraggy B.
Starting point is 01:04:30 J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers in the 14th round. You can keep for two more years. Harris in the 14th round. Keep for two more years. Gaskin in the 14th round. Keep for two more years. And Jordan Reed. Good job, Shraggy B. Jordan Reed. Anyway, who are you keeping?
Starting point is 01:04:47 Akers. Akers and Dobbins, no? I'd be tempted to go Akers and Kittle, but that's what I'd be tempted to do. It is.2 yards,.2 points per carry, and.5 per catch. Alright, well definitely Akers, and then either Dobbins or Kittle.
Starting point is 01:05:18 Thank you, Eric from a town in Maine. Thank you, Heath and Dave. Eric! Thank you, Heath and Dave. Thank you, Ben Schrager, for figuring out those retired players before he could win for schrager we'll talk to you some when's our next show ben tomorrow afternoon mailbag and when's it airing 4 p.m eastern okay so wednesday afternoon mailbag apple podcast emails we'll talk to you then don't forget to watch
Starting point is 01:05:42 youtube.com slash fantasy football today today for the entire NFL draft. We will have recap podcast episodes right after the action on day 1, 2, and 3. See ya!

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