Fantasy Football Today - Waiver Wire RBs; Michel vs. Penny; 2022 TE Rankings (12/27 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 27, 2021

The Cowboys offense was amazing on Sunday night, but CeeDee Lamb did not join the party. Is he a must-start option in Week 17? How do we feel about Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin right now? ... News and notes (8:40) and Five Big Topics starting with a lengthy debate over the best RB to add off the waiver wire (12:30). Is it Boston Scott? Dare Ogunbowale? ... Who could be that surprise player that comes out of nowhere to win you a Fantasy championship (23:00)? We'll give you some names to consider. We also debate Rashaad Penny vs. Sony Michel (28:15), rank the Top 5 TEs for 2022 (35:00) and discuss the Broncos RBs against the Chargers in Week 17 (42:00) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. We are on to week 17, of course, after the Saints and Dolphins get it on on Monday Night Football. What am I saying, Chris? I'm sorry. It's to a tongue of a loa. Ian Book, next on Monday Night Football. I don't know, man. It's a weird time. I think I'm excited about Week 17.

I'm a little nervous to see who's going on the COVID list in the coming days. It's going to be kind of hectic. But I think, you know, right now, Chiefs offense gets back on track. The Cowboys offense gets back on track. The Bills offense is clicking. Josh Allen just put up a huge game against the Patriots. I do feel like we're mostly going to start the guys that, you know, that we've been starting most of the year. We're not going to be worried about stud players too much this week. And that's hopefully what it should be, right?

You're going to be a lot of stud players playing in week 17. And there will be, of course, plenty of difficult start-sit decisions. But I'm glad to see some offenses starting to get back on track. And we start with the Dallas game. So that's kind of where I was going with that. Yeah, Dallas. I mean, actually, the offense was just kind of like, obviously, the offense was great. But the fantasy offense, it's not like CeeDee Lambari cooper had huge games it was okay cooper did cooper did cooper okay yeah 785

but yeah it was uh it was a you know it was a great game for dak prescott it was a you know another game where ezekiel elliott defied the odds and the haters and had a decent fantasy game. But yeah, I think you feel fine about them. Like, I don't think CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper can be viewed as wide receiver ones at this point, but it's only one more week, so this point doesn't really matter. You're starting them, probably.

You're definitely starting CeeDee Lamb, I think. But yeah, I feel good about Dallas' offense. It's a good offense. Well, it was just nice to see them really flowing at Washington's defense. They've had a tough time recently with all the COVID cases and all of the injuries and those types of things. But I guess, you know, to be

fair, they didn't exactly do a bad job against the run. That's kind of been their hallmark all year. They've been a very good run defense. They gave up a touchdown to Zeke, but they did a nice job against Zeke and Pollard. But yeah, it was great to see Dak get going and score 39 points and then eight more from Cooper Rush.

So it was just a huge... 39 points in basically a half. It was incredible. Yeah. What was the score at halftime? It was 42-7 at halftime. And Trayvon Diggs shadowing Terry McLaurin. That was really interesting. Before we get to Washington,

let's just finish up on Dallas here. One thing about Lamb, Chris, he is playing so much more in the slot now. He's almost exclusively a slot receiver. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but maybe that's tied to his lower production. I want to see him play all over the field. It's kind of a bad thing in that he's playing fewer snaps i mean early in the season he was playing you know 80 87 most weeks and you know the last three weeks in particular he's been below 75

now yesterday's game being such a blowout it's it's hard to know what to make of those snap counts um and obviously there's been like the covet situation and and stuff in there that you know could explain some of it but yeah like this was part of the problem last season where he was coming off the field sort of regularly um i don't think it's a problem in that like i'm not worried about cd lamb not being worth starting this week but this is playing into think, part of why he hasn't been necessarily the elite number one wide receiver that people were necessarily hoping for coming into the season.

So would you start Amonra St. Brown against Seattle, or would you start CeeDee Lamb against Arizona? There's no way I can sit CeeDee Lamb for Amonra St. Brown. I feel like we're going to have a lot of arguments about him on our St. Brown in the off season. Um, and I will be on the, he's not that good side of it. Obviously the role being what it is right now. I think he is close to a must start and hopefully you don't have to make a decision between CD lamb and the Monroe St. Brown. Cause I would imagine they'll both be top 15 wide receivers in my rankings. Ezekiel Elliott, I know Chris is going to start him with confidence. Arizona, bad run defense. It's really more about whether or not he scores at this point.

Also, it's just hard to look at the Cowboys' stats because they sat so much in this game, but only 10 touches. That's unusual for him. For Washington, again with Gibson, you know, I didn't see anything about it, but I just have to assume that the score contributed to him

only getting eight touches. Well, and the toe. Right. You know, if it was a closer game, I'm sure he would have had a bigger role, but with the game out of reach so quickly, yeah, he barely played in the second half. It was all him in the first half, basically,

when you look at the touches. So I think that's encouraging. He had the receiving touchdown and they get the Eagles next week. They just played the Eagles and he had 15 carries for 26 yards and a touchdown, but he'd have six catches. So if he's healthy, he's much more of a PPR play.

How do you feel about McLaurin going up against the Eagles and Darius Slay? And he was terrible against the Eagles. He McLaurin going up against the Eagles and Darius Slay? He was terrible against the Eagles. He did have one long catch against the Eagles, but they had no Heineke in that game. They had Garrett... Who was it in that game? Was it Garrett Gilbert? That was Garrett Gilbert's start.

And it was that Tuesday or Monday start that got delayed. You can't feel good about Terry McLaurin at this point. He's a wide receiver three with boom potential every week because he's still getting downfield targets. He's still the number one target there, but I mean, he hasn't had more than six targets in a game since week 12.

He hasn't had more than 51 yards in a game since week 11. It's been a disappointing season. And when you're talking about dynasty, I think he's a really interesting player because he's about to be 27 at the start of next season and he's kind of settled in as just like a wide receiver too over the course of three seasons there's a lot of extenuating circumstances that go into that obviously but i don't know if they don't get a serious upgrade at wide receiver mclaurin is potentially a selling dynasty right now yeah a quarterback

you meant, yeah. Yeah, a quarterback, sorry. And speaking of Washington quarterbacks, it looks like two of them are going to play. We're just seeing now Ron Rivera saying that Taylor Heineke will likely start, but Kyle Allen will probably, oh, Heineke will start, but Kyle Allen will probably play next

week. Alright, and then we could... It doesn't make you feel any better about McLaurin. It doesn't, and I wonder if there's any interest in Ricky Seals-Jones or John Bates for next week. Probably not. They are facing the Eagles, and it is... Yeah. It's amazing.

I mean, Evan Ingram with this garbage-type touchdown catch. It's amazing. Every week, it's a tight end, but I don't know who it would be. You know, Bates got all of his production basically at the end of the game. Yeah, he did play 75% of the snaps yesterday. Ricky Seals-Jones played 45%. I don't know what the split of that was in the first and second half.

I'm not sure I would want to trust either, but I think they might both be in the top 24 just because of the matchups, just probably 20 to 24. I think we'll have an interesting discussion about Dalton Schultz next week. He is on fire right now, but Arizona has been great against tight ends this year.

He's going to be a start. It's just going to be a matter of who do you start him over. Don't forget to read the newsletter, cbssports.com slash newsletters. You can see all of our newsletters. The Fantasy Football Today newsletter is written by Chris Towers. It's straight into your inbox eight times a week. Injuries, starts, sits, anything that is relevant,

you're going to find in that newsletter. It's all free, cbssports.com slash newsletters. News and notes. We know James Robinson tore his Achilles. X-rays were negative on Clyde Edwards-Ealers' collarbone. And so the first topic that we're going to have today is who is the best waiver

wire running back to pick up. So we're going to be looking at Jacksonville. We're going to be looking at Kansas City. We're going to be looking at Philadelphia for the most part. Although Miles Sanders may play. I know. And that's part of the discussion. So he has a broken hand.

Jordan Howard, a stinger. And that's going to make things very annoying, basically. We'll see. Adam Thielen left in the second quarter. K.J. Osborne could be out there. He could be a good option at Green Bay. Daryl Henderson left with a knee injury. We'll talk about Sonny Michel later. On his, what, first touch?

I know he only had one. Third snap and his first touch. Yeah, that's a bummer. Sonny Michel, a big winner yesterday, even without the Henderson injury. Yeah, right. He was dominating the carries regardless. Alan Robinson is going to return this week, facing the carries regardless. Allen Robinson is going to return this week facing the Giants. Baltimore cornerback Anthony Averitt left. He's one of their few experienced guys. He might play this week.

We got a lot of offensive line issues for the Colts. Hopefully they can get the interior of their line back. But Quentin Nelson, I believe he's not eligible to play next week, this week, right? Oh, I don't know. I'll look that up. Yeah, look it up. I thought that's what I saw,

that he was unvaccinated. Let me make sure. And left tackle Eric Fisher left on Saturday. So did Nelson's backup, Chris Reed. And now Braden Smith, another starting offensive lineman. He's on the reserve COVID list. Ryan Kelly was out for personal reasons.

Hopefully he can come back. Tragic situation for him. So they have a pretty beat-up line. They are facing Las Vegas. I don't think it's going to change any of your decisions, but if you have Jonathan Taylor, you certainly want some of these guys back.

And the Rams lost a pretty important piece, linebacker Ernest Jones, as they face Baltimore this week. They also lost center Brian Allen. And we're going to have a lot more news coming in throughout the week. Okay, then. Let's get to our five big topics. Hey, what's going on? Let's bring in Jacob Gibbs.

What's up, Gibbsy? What's up, man? Got another Chiefs win. win yeah you're loving it is that a Chiefs just a Chiefs sweatshirt or just the coincidence of the color okay yeah

it'd be a pretty see that'd be a very cool sweatshirt if it wasn't a Chiefs sweatshirt it was just yellow and red just happened to be a coincidence and you found it did you ever have a starter jacket you guys too young

for starter jackets too young I definitely had a Dolphin starter jacket you guys too young for starter jackets i definitely had a dolphin starter jacket at one point when i was a kid but i i don't know where it is oh that's probably wouldn't fit you could probably sell that thing i mean my fit azer they go for a i mean they're like i've looked into buying like an old school starter jacket and they're expensive where should i go should i try ebay uh yeah yeah probably ebay or thrift stores uh but yeah no uh can't find any quentin nelson was not vaccinated

at the start of the season i do not know about now so that one's kind of up in the air at this point some somebody around the colts will hopefully report that uh Let's see if I can get a Kansas City Chiefs starter jacket on eBay. Let's see how much it's going for. We'll get this for Jacob for his Christmas. I would be surprised if you could find an adult one for under $100. I'm seeing $120. I got $90, but no, this isn't a starter jacket. Yeah, $120.

All right. Merry Christmas, Jacob. Yeah, $120. All right. Merry Christmas, Jacob. No, you're not getting that. Our five big topics. Number one, who is the best waiver wire running back this week? Chris, you wrote an early waiver wire story, so who do you think the best one is? I think, based on what we know right now,

I'm not particularly interested in any of them. But... Ooh. I mean, like, it's Dario Gumbawale and the worst offense in the NFL, and he's not, I don't think, a good player. He averaged 11 PPR points per game in his two starts last season or you've got

what seemed to be clear splits in kansas city and philadelphia my my gut would be that boston scott should be the the number one priority but he also only scores touchdowns against the new york giants it's true um and he had the new york giants yesterday so he's not going to face that again in week 17 he scored twice against the lions right yeah he did uh sure they had that was just a joke yeah but it's it's there's some truth to it he's killed the giants it's weird um but with jordan howard dealing with the stinger maybe he's limited maybe he's not able to play then i think boston scott you know likely does become the lead back, although I don't think he would just be the only back. We'd see plenty of Kenneth Gainwell as well. But yeah, I think if you have to pick right now as of Monday afternoon, Boston Scott looks like the best option.

I think I might prefer Daria Gumbawale to either of the Kansas City Chiefs guys, and that's just mostly a usage thing. He should get a ton of work, including in the passing game. Whereas I think Darrell Williams and Derek Gore are likely to split work. I don't think this is going to be a situation like Darrell Williams was in earlier in the season where he was getting a majority

or a lion's share of the work. Why, though? By the way, Darrell Williams is 85% roster, which kind of hurts this discussion because I would like to add him. And we'll talk about him anyway. He might be available in your league. But I'm curious about that because there was only one game where Derek Gore really had any significant work. It was that Giants game on Monday night. five games earlier this year when Clyde Edwards-Elair missed the games. Darrell Williams was the number four running back in fantasy. He was not close to that per game. He was 14th in non. He was 12th in PPR.

Still, he was terrific. Not every week, but overall he was terrific filling in. I guess I'm just curious. Why do you think Gore would have a role this time around when he didn't last time around? Because he's had would have a role this time around when he didn't last time around uh because he's had a more of a role of late even with both daryl williams and clive edwards you know obviously not in week 15 he didn't play a snap but weeks 14 and 16 he played at least 28 of the snaps in both games had at least nine targets so i just

i do think he's earned a bigger role at least maybe he had at least what nine what nine carries and 28 of the targets now one of those was a a big blowout with both williams and edward dealer healthy and then edward dealer left yesterday's game but i just i have to imagine he's earned a bigger role and it's not like daryl williams was like so impressive in that time, especially as a rusher. I think Derek Gore has looked a little better as a rusher and the opportunities that they've had.

Williams will get goal line work and I think he'll get passing game work. I guess I would rather, we'll see what the rankings look like. I guess I would rather start him than Daryl Williams. Who, Gore than Williams? No, no, no, Daryl Williams. You'd rather start him than Darrell Williams. Who? Gore than Williams? No, no, no. Darrell Williams. You'd rather start... Him than Boston Scott, excuse me. Oh, okay.

My brain gets messed up sometimes. Boston Scott, what you're saying... Let's say Miles Sanders is out. Who's number one? I think Darrell Williams, probably. You'd rather start Darrell Williams than... Okay, you'd rather start Darrell Williams than an Eagles running back, is what you're saying?

I think so, yes. Okay. All right, Jacob. How about you? Yeah, I think what Chris said makes sense. I think Williams would probably be the top guy, but like you alluded to, he's not going to be available in most leagues. I think Scott would be my clear next preference,

although the usage for Darrell Agunbo was really, really good. He played over 90% of snaps, I want to say, after Robinson went down and ran a route on 25 of 32 dropbacks, which is a 70% round involvement rate. And so I tweet out the running back round involvement rates each week, and that normally would lead the entire running back position most weeks. And I'll point out, he had 14 carries in each of his two starts last season with 12 targets in two starts. So the usage, there is evidence of his usage being that,

obviously, it's a different coaching staff. But he is a guy that has earned a lot of trust in the passing game in the past. So he's going to have a role there. Because they're facing the Patriots, and they could obviously lose by, has earned a lot of trust in the passing game in the past. Well, you better get it. Because they're facing the Patriots, and they could obviously lose by 30. But they're 15-point dogs. Jacob, continue, though. What were you going to say?

I think he's someone that you can pick up and feel reasonably confident starting. If we're looking at the same type of situation where he should be seeing a ton of targets and um while playing from behind like we talked about there i think there's more upside with somebody like boston scott um for sure just you know because of the limitations of jackson was offense um so yeah i think i would probably order daryl and then scott and then dary um don't have really much interest in Derek Gore. I think his involvement has mostly just been because of the blowouts and kind of weird game scripts that he's got involved in.

But he has looked good, and like Chris said, he has played well, so it's possible that he gets more. But I think what we saw previously was mostly that it was Darrell's job when Clyde went down. Let's give a few numbers here. We look at Agumboale and what you might expect in terms of carries or touches. Well, the last two games since Urban Meyer got fired,

it's been about 18 to 20 carries for the lead running back. Robinson had 18 carries two weeks ago. And last week, Robinson had three, and then Agumboale had 17. So that's great. One of those games was a blowout loss. That was the Houston game. Seven games James Robinson has played in which they have lost

by 14 or more points, and he had more than 30 rushing yards only twice. Now he left one of them with an injury. The carries, there were, you know, there was an 18-carry game against Houston, 18-carry game against Tennessee. No, actually, yeah, yeah, Houston-Tennessee. But the carries were not great.

Now, Carlos Hyde was a factor there. So I think we're probably thinking, well, Akubu Wiley might get almost all of the running back touches. And that means, regardless of the score, it could be 15 to 20 touches. And the Patriots' run defense is really not that good.

4.56 yards per carry to running backs is bad. Fourth most receiving yards per game allowed to running backs. I guess I just worry that it's just one of those games where the Jaguars, maybe I'm exaggerating here, but they could have fewer than 200 total yards. They could just get absolutely

killed by this defense. They're that bad. That can happen against any defense. They're that bad. And the Patriots defense against the rookie quarterback. That can happen against any defense, not just New England. This is a really, really terrible offense for the most part. They had 384 yards yesterday, but that was against the Jets. I don't know how much you... No, you're right.

Then you compare that to the Eagles. Start with that Detroit game eight weeks ago. That's when they decided, let's go really run heavy. Let's change our offense. They're 6-2. They've got all six wins coming by more than 10 points, four wins coming by 15 or more points. They're facing Washington.

It's probably going to be a win if I had to guess on the road, but they just beat them with a third-string quarterback. They are favored. The running backs for the Eagles in this eight-game stretch, I love this. Just the running backs, not even Jalen Hurts. They are averaging 30 carries, 153 yards, 1.1 touchdowns per game. So if Sanders is out, we haven't talked about Jordan Howard.

He's absolutely in this mix because he's probably going to get 12 carries even if Sanders plays. And I don't know, 30? It's actually 30.5 carries per game and over five yards per carry. That's what the running backs are averaging in those eight games. And listen, the Washington run defense,

like I said earlier, it's really good, but the team that has had the most success against them was the Eagles two weeks ago I think the Eagles are at a point where you just don't worry about the matchup so much the running game, they're so committed to it they're so effective running the ball

in so many different ways, it's not just the read option they're they've, they're, they're being, they've been a really, really effective rushing game. No matter who's had the ball, Miles Sanders, when he's been in has been awesome. When he's been out, they've still been effective rushing the ball. So the only question for me with Boston Scott and Jordan Howard is who gets the most carries, who gets the goal line work. I would think Jordan Howard gets a goal line work, but would think Jordan Howard gets goal line work.

Boston Scott got a goal line touchdown yesterday, and he's been in that role before. We've seen Kenny Gainwell come in for goal line work. So part of the problem is I think it's unpredictable. I think the overall production will be there, but the specifics of who's going to get it are going to be unpredictable enough where I don't know if I would rank any of them as RB2s.

All right, so finalists, to sum it up, both Eagles running backs are available. Derek Gore is available and Daria Gumbawale. Jacob, who are your top two? Scott and Gumbawale would be my top two. Same. Yeah. If Howard plays, I think Howard is ahead of Scott.

I think we've seen that. plays, I think Howard is ahead of Scott. Really? I think we've seen that. Yeah, I think we've seen that. Because he has been the one who's been the one-two punch with Miles Sanders, where Scott really hasn't had much of a role. And then in the three games that Sanders missed, Howard either had the same amount or more carries than Boston Scott in every game. So I've really seen it as Sanders is number one on the depth chart howard's number two and scott's number three i mean that's

kind of the way it's it's looked anyway i think they'll split carries pretty much oh they will yeah it might be like uh 16 to 13 or something yeah all right jamal jamal williams is going to be part of this but he's 73 roster and wever Wire Show tomorrow. Let's go to our next question. It's from Neil Slayton. Who will be the surprise player to win people championships this year? Last year I won because of the Nelson Aguilar suggestion from someone. I don't know who it was. Oh, that's a – you know what? I think Josh Palmer is a good choice for this question.

What if everyone's back? Well, Mike Williams, I believe, is unvaccinated. How do you have the database? Well, no, I'm just based on what I've seen. How do you see all this stuff? Good for you. But I'm not 100% sure on any of these because there is not a database.

But if Mike Williams is out, Josh Palmer scored a touchdown in the game that Keenan Allen missed. He scored a touchdown in the game that Mike Williams missed. I think he's a pretty good player. So yeah, I think Josh Palmer has a chance to be that. And I think Isaiah McKenzie. We know... We do know Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis and Gabriel Davis they will not be playing in week 17 I saw the database on that

one so uh yeah I think Isaiah McKenzie is in a great spot they he actually I think he was second on the team in routes run but it was like 42 out of 49 pass plays or something like that. He was on the field a lot. They looked to him a lot. He's certainly a more dynamic and explosive player than Cole Beasley. So you don't want to overreact too much to one game, but I think Isaiah McKenzie, the usage that he had yesterday was very encouraging.

And I think he could be that guy. If you're looking for for a wide receiver, three or four. The Buffaloes facing Atlanta. Jacob, who's your surprise guy? McKenzie was one of them. We've seen two times now in the past couple years where he's actually got extended opportunity,

and he's played really well in both those games, 11 for 125 yesterday, and then last year he had a game where he went six for 65 with two touchdowns. And his rates are pretty decent in terms of his ability to draw targets. And so I think he's exciting. Another guy who is going to be contingent on his teammates' health is Braxton Berrios, who had a big kickoff return. And you talk about per route rates, Braxton Berrios is insane.

I don't, it kind of has flown under the radar because he hasn't really run enough routes to qualify. But over the past two seasons, he ranks ninth among 114 qualified receivers and targets per route run rate. Yeah, just below Debo Samuel and above Justin Jefferson and Tyree Kill. Braxton Berrios, sure, right.

And he's 28th in yards per routerun um among 114 receivers during that time so it's not like i mean you i would not have expected that you know i was like okay he draws targets at a high rate no surprises running really short routes um who else the jet's going to throw to but the efficiency on those targets really surprised me playing for the jets and running such short routes he's actually been been pretty efficient with his targets. And then he's playing a Tampa Bay defense that just funnels targets to the slot in the short area of the field. So I think he's somebody who honestly is like a priority add if Elijah Moore is not going to be back and if James Crowder is not going to be back.

And then the other guy is Moali Cox. Jack Doyle got hurt yesterday, and I don't know if he's going to be back for week 17. And Moali Cox ended up playing 91%% of snaps and ran around on 23 of 31 dropbacks. And he's another player who has been pretty dang efficient when he's been given opportunity. He ranks in the same thing as Barris. We don't have a large enough sample size this year, so I just took the past two seasons. And during that time, he ranks ninth among 47 qualified tight ends in yards per outrun rate

and is 18th in target per outrun rate. Obviously always a threat to score in the red zone as well. So those would be my two guys along with McKenzie. And the Raiders, that's Mo'Ally Cox's matchup, give up the third most fantasy points to tight ends. They have struggled. They did not struggle this past week against Noah Fant,

but he still managed to get three catches for 30 yards in a terrible game for the offense. They've actually been a lot better lately, but giving up a fair share of touchdowns. All right, we're going to take a break here. When we come back, we will debate Sonny Michel against the Ravens or Rashad Penny against the Lions. We'll talk about tight ends in 2022.

And, well, I just figured it's a day that ends with y and we're talking football we might as well talk about the Broncos backfield we'll be right back it's the season for new styles and you love to shop for jackets and boots so when you do always make sure you get cash back from Rakuten and it's not just clothing and shoes you can get cash back from over 750 stores on electronics holiday travel home decor decor, and more. It's super easy. And before you buy anything, always go to Rakuten first. Join free at Rakuten.ca.

Start shopping and get your cash back sent to you by check or PayPal. Get the Rakuten app or join at Rakuten.ca. R-A-K-U-T-E-N dot C-A. Alright, we got two players who are late season risers who are helping you get to the fantasy finals and maybe win a fantasy championship. Zach wants to know, this week, week 17, Sonny Michel or Rashad

Penny? And Michel, in his last four games, he is averaging 4.75 yards per carry. He has 18 or more carries in each game. The Rams are 4- games. He is averaging 4.75 yards per carry. He has 18 or more carries in each game. The Rams are 4-0. He will get one of the better run defenses, though, in the Baltimore Ravens.

Penny has 135 or more yards in two of his last three games, and he's facing the Lions, who give up the third most fantasy points to running backs and 15 rushing touchdowns in 15 games to running backs. Jacob, you're up first. Michelle at the Ravens or Penny against the Lions? I don't think it's much of a debate, really. I think it's easily Sonny Michelle. His usage is way better. And then also his offense

is way better. Of course, the matchup is great for penny um and like it's well within penny's range of outcomes to outscore michelle um he does have upside but like we saw 90 snap rate for sony last last week he has 74 route involvement rate uh compared to i mean penny only ran 11 routes and that's been kind of consistent they're kind of taking him off the field on passing downs he had a 37 route% route involvement rate, 55% snap rate. And that was in a game that they were pretty much leading throughout, which I would expect them to be against Detroit too. But still, it's just, it seems like there's a clear cap on his route involvement

and the amount that he's going to play, which kind of caps his carries as well. Whereas we don't have that with Sony. So I think much safer play is Sonny, and I think he also brings similar, if not higher, upside just because the Rams bring so much scoring upside compared to Seattle's offense. Yeah, I mean, if Baltimore's defense is still missing as many starters as they have been the last couple of weeks, I don't necessarily think you should worry about the Ravens

slowing the Rams' offense down much. I think the necessarily think you should worry about the Ravens slowing the Rams offense down much. I think the bigger concern would be, you know, does Matthew Stafford do the dumb mistake thing that he did three games in a row earlier in the season? Does he do it two and two games in a row this week, this year, or does he just leave it to week 16 where he had the three interceptions?

Cause that was really what held the Rams offense back yesterday, if anything did. I think Michelle is pretty much locked into 20-ish carries, certainly 20-ish touches. What if they lose? What if Lamar Jackson comes back? What if they're trailing? I think this would be an easy one. He's still

running a ton of routes. Even when Daryl Henderson was active in week 16 or 15 and played uh most of the game or was active for the whole game i think michelle still ran 64 of the routes so i don't really think he's all that game script dependent i guess we haven't seen him in a significant role in a game that they've lost no but we have seen henderson and he had three to five catches in all four of their losses. Yeah.

So I think Sonny Michel is just going to kind of be used in that same way. The way the Rams have worked is when they've had a lead back, they've had a lead back. And that lead back's gotten about 80% of the snaps most weeks. So I think Sonny Michel is going to be in that role. He's in a good offense. And I think he's going to get... I mean, what's the floor? Is he going to get less than 15 carries? Well, look, I know you can say that.

I get it, but let's just look at the last four running backs who have gotten significant carries against the Ravens. Najee Harris had 21 carries for 71 yards. Nick Chubb had 17 carries for 59 yards. Aaron Jones had 13 carries for 58 yards and Joe Mixon had 18 carries for 65 yards. So they're, I mean, I know Harris has been an inefficient running back all year, but they're facing some great running backs. And other than Jones, I mean, they're really smothering them.

Now Mixon did score the touchdown and he had the work in the passing game. AJ Dillon scored a rushing touchdown. They're not, they're not impenetrable, but they are a much tougher matchup just on the ground than the Lions. So that's the only reason why this is a close one for me. I just think with the passing game

role that he's likely to have, certainly relative to Rashad Penny and the touchdown chances that he's going to have in that offense, I would have to go with Sonny Michel. I think he's going to be a borderline RB1. I think Penny is more like an RB2, probably in the mid to lower range, even against a matchup like this,

just because the limitations of his role, like Jacob talked about, he kind of has to have a really, really good rushing game in terms of his efficiency. Because we've also only seen him get, what is it, 17 carries is the most he's had since he became the lead back. And that's including a game against Houston where they won by 20 and he only had 16 carries. So I just, I think there's probably a cap on how many touches he's likely to get. And look, like this is the kind of thing that can blow up in your face with like Damian Harris last week in week 16, who the Patriots had under 300 yards of total offense.

They were in a negative game script all week and he still scored three touchdowns and had a huge game. That can happen with a player like Rashad Penny, but you kind of need that touchdown to really have a very good fantasy game. Well, okay, if they both win, if he's not involved in the passing, because you can talk about

all the routes he runs. He's not catching the ball, Sonny Michelle. They're very similar in the sense that they both need a touchdown, right? Because you look at the last four games that Michelle has played, when he scored a touchdown, he's been incredible. When he hasn't scored a touchdown, he's been fine. So they've been the same. The advantage that Michel has is that

if they are trailing, especially with Henderson, I mean, he's probably going to catch three to five passes. That's great. And in 15 games, the Rams have run 112 more plays than the Seattle Seahawks. So I guess I'll put it this way.

There's a few paths for Rashad Penny to have a really good game. He could have 150 yards rushing. He could find the end zone once or twice. But that's kind of it. Whereas there are different ways, depending on different game scripts, I think, for Sonny Michel to have a very good fantasy game. All right. I think that's the way I would put it.

Let's go to our next question here from Freefall. Tom Petty. Top five tight ends in 22 and the earliest you draft a tight end. Jacob, you still got your boy, your starter jacket, Travis Kelsey at number one?

I think so, yeah. I think I'm really curious to dig into George into george kittles year a little bit more once the season's over um because i think we've seen some really encouraging things from how san francisco has used them compared to past years where they've actually allowed him to really reach like near 100 route involvement in games which is something they really hadn't done much um in the past and i think if we can see that type of usage consistently like he definitely his george kittles per route rates have been consistently like the best of any player in the nfl not just any tight end in terms of his ability to draw targets and convert them into yards so like if we see his role expanded fully in the way that it has been at

points this year um and feel confident that that may happen in 2022 i think there's a case for him to be tight in one um but other than him it's it's got to be kelsey right i think so chris yeah i mean like mark andrews is having an incredible season and he's what three points behind three points per game behind where kelsey was last season yeah um so it's like like mark andrews is having the kind of season that typically ends up in the wide receiver one or tight end one tight end two range we've seen travis kelsey have the high high upside season we've seen george kittle have the high high upside season we've what we're seeing from mark andrews is very very good upside but not quite to that same level.

I think for Andrews, the past attempts have just been so high this year for the Ravens. If their run game looks different next year, the volume is probably going to come down. Now let's do a top five. Well, actually, let's answer the second part. If we all have Kelsey as our number one tight end right now, is he a first-round pick?

I don't think so. Yeah, it'll be hard to do that but i think at least three tight ends maybe four should go in the first 30 picks like i i don't really have any concerns about darren waller once he's healthy i know he wasn't as good this season but it was also a really weird season in terms of his touchdown efficiency and in terms of his yards per target efficiency in a way that I don't think was likely to sustain moving forward. So I think he'll be right in that discussion. I think when you look back at the last two years for Darren Waller, you're going to see that he's basically done everything in the last six games of 2020. I mean, not everything, but he wasn't really that good

before the last six games of 2020. Now, in 2019, he was terrific, but it's been a pretty bumpy ride. And then he kind of picked it up this year after the henry ruggs incident he had 92 yards 24 yards and 116 yards in three games then he got hurt against dallas so i actually think i could make a case that there's been more bad than we realized for darren waller over the last couple of seasons kittle's got the injury issues and we'll see how many touchdowns he ends up with but usually not a lot in that offense and then we'll see if Trey Lance is the quarterback. So that'll be interesting. Kyle Pitts will certainly have a case.

He's going to have basically the best rookie tight end season since the merger. I think he's five. I think what'll be interesting will be Waller versus Pitts. I think that'll be the interesting one this year because I could see people pushing Pitts ahead of Waller. And it might not be the wrong decision. You know, like, Kyle Pitts is 10th in fantasy points per game

amongst tight ends. 9th if you take out Logan Thomas, who only played five games, but we'll call him 10th. That's with one touchdown on 101 targets. Nobody's done anything like that. None of these guys even touched his rookie season. Yeah. So it's exciting.

Yeah. He's averaging like 9. So it's exciting. Yeah. He's averaging like 9.5 yards per target. Is that right? As a rookie tight end? I'm not sure. Am I looking at that right? I'm not sure, but because he's just never scores. 9.4 yards per target as a rookie tight end for Kyle Pitts.

I mean, that is ridiculous. He's absurdly talented. The only reason his season is a disappointment is, one, the touchdown. He only has one. Matt Ryan has frustratingly like, there was one point I think two weeks ago where he had Kyle Pitts one-on-one on the outside and he didn't even look to that side of the field. Now,

that's the play design as well as Matt Ryan, but like, holy cow, what are we doing? You know, look for that guy in the red zone more. So, hopefully that'll be the case moving forward. Give me your top five then. Go ahead. Go ahead.

You said he's five. Who's two? I don't even know who's two for you. I think it's Kelsey. I would go Kittle over Andrews, but I flip a coin. And then Waller and then Pitts. And I think Waller and Pitts will probably be pretty close. I think all five will end up going in the first four rounds.

Jacob? I think I pretty much mirror Chris's. I would throw Dallas Goddard's name in there as well. Sure. He's been, like, really wildly efficient this season. And I don't know. I think it's kind of flown under the radar just because they've gone so run heavy at the end of the year.

And so, like, if they change it all next year and pass any more than I think he could definitely be part of this discussion. I mean, he's second among tight ends in yards per run behind only Kittle on the season. And Pitts is fourth. That's so crazy to me. These fourth among tight ends averaging over two yards per run, like in the situation that he's in. That's just amazing yeah and like i would say with regards to goddard and the eagles passing game and whether they're going to throw more i think you kind of have to assume they'll throw more than they have so in in the last eight weeks at least because this is just such an outlier low passing rate and know, we've seen some other situations

where like the Titans have really gone run heavy. And even that hasn't been totally consistent year over year. But they're the Ravens. What's that? They're the Ravens. Right, or the Ravens this season. Well, that's because they lost their running backs. Right, right.

But there are things that can happen that can turn a low pass volume team into a high pass volume team or at least a middling pass volume team if you go from the lowest pass volume in the league to the 25th lowest that's still probably 70 or 80 more pass attempts over the course of a season based on the way the last few seasons have worked so i do think you you should assume that we'll see more passing from the eagles over the course of next season then you know maybe the defense takes a step back whatever happens like this is outliers tend to regress to the mean from one year to the next um yeah and so i i do expect them to throw more but yeah his dallas goddard's pace since uh the Zach Ertz trade is 965 yards on 89 targets

with only four touchdowns so it's the touchdowns that are really holding him back he's been kind of like Mark Andrews yeah but you know what take take away the one game with from Minshew that was like 100 yards and two touchdowns sure it was 105 yards but even if you take that away he's still averaging what 55 yards per game i mean you're still talking about close to 900 yards over a 6 16 game season i don't think he's in the the pits waller range but i think he probably should be six okay i mean i think hockinson will have a case maybe fant if they have a big quarterback upgrade. Gronkowski's been fourth best per game in PPR this year. Let's go to our last topic.

Denver at the Chargers this week. And the Chargers really were playing pretty well against the run until Rex Burkhead just crushed them. Last week, it was weird. In fact, I even heard the broadcasters talk about how the Chargers acknowledged that since their bye week, they felt like they had had pretty good run defense. And it was surprising.

Look, you can only hope to slow Rex Burke. Yeah. As soon as David Johnson was out, I was like, uh-oh. They're in trouble. So this was also I read on ESPN. According to ESPN stats and information data, the Broncos' ball carriers were hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 13 of their 16 run plays

against the Raiders in Week 16. That's 81% of the time somebody was in the backfield. So terrible game for Gordon and Javante. You got a touchdown from Javante, but that's it. You only had 16 run plays. So, Jacob, at the Chargers next week, do you trust the Broncos? Does it matter who the quarterback is?

Can we, you know, because Javante, Melvin Gordon, these are guys we get questions about all the time. How are we approaching them as we start week 17? I wish we had a more clear answer, but the usage we saw this week was really honestly discouraging, at least for Javante, who had like started to seemingly separate himself a little bit. But really, he wasn't, in week but really he wasn't in week 16. He wasn't playing more on passing downs or third downs or anything like that. He wasn't, I mean,

it was basically back to even 50, 50 split. And so trust these guys. No, no, I don't trust them. Even with what we saw Rick's Burkhead do, I think they're low end RB twos. Um, I would rather start Penny for sure. Um, like we talked about earlier, I just, I don't know. I would rather start Penny for sure. Like we talked about earlier, I just, I don't know. I have a hard time trusting either of them after what we saw

in Week 16, really, even with a good matchup. Here's the thing. They played, they ran 42 offensive plays yesterday. They didn't have a turnover. That is almost impossible

to run that few plays without turning the ball over now one of their drives the defense turned them over they had one play drive so that was part of it but like they only had one fewer drive than las vegas it was this was just a weird game in terms like las vegas ran 27 more snaps than they did they went one for 10 on third down that's it that is just shocking like it's it's incredibly difficult i think it was one of the 10 lowest past offensive play volumes in the last decade or something like that um do people understand how low 42 is like the lowest average is 55 like on the year like denver averages 62 plays per game like that this was

so like in terms of snap counts and snap percentage and route share and all like i don't know how much you can take away from it just because the number itself was so low that you don't know like what the game plan was and and you know so all of that this is one of those games that where it's almost impossible to take much away just because it was such an outlier performance in terms of the volume that this offense had. But that being said, I think you kind of have to view Javante and Gordon

as mid, I think at best, mid to low-end RB2s. They should have more volume next week. That's been the case in the past, but there have also been games in the past where Javante Williams has had eight carries and nine. I mean, those were earlier in the season, but he's not necessarily a guarantee for more than 15. I think it's unlikely that he gets more than 15

in any given week. So you're hoping for four to five targets. You're hoping for a touchdown. And all those things have been there for him more often than not of late for Javante. I really need to. I'm hoping for Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater will check down to him. Locke probably not as much.

Bridgewater's just better. Yeah, of course. You need their offense to be better. You need it to be competent and capable. I am forced to start Javante Williams in a league, but I don't want to. I think Penny over him is an easy call.

It's also unfortunate that I don't think Teddy Bridgewater should play. Oh, yeah. You know what? I'm not going to let us. He's going to go to the hospital. But, like, I think there's risk there.

I guess. But I think there's risk there. But the doctors would know. And, you know, these guys, this is their livelihood. I mean, I think I debated this with Dave. He was talking about the giant sitting Barkley or whatever. And it's like, this is what they do. This is what they do. They want to win. This is their

job. This is their life. They want to play. If they can play, they're going to play. I agree. I'm also just not sure Teddy Bridgewater is going to be cleared by that. We've seen several situations this season. J.D. McKissick being one who was placed on IR because of

a concussion. Miles Sanders is out this week. JD McKissick being one who was placed on IR because of a concussion. Oh, oh, oh. Miles Sanders is out this week. Well, there you go. So Boston Scott or Javante Williams? I would probably go with Javante. Eagles guys.

I think I'd go both Eagles guys. Well, I'll tell you what. I'll tell you what. If Bridgewater's back and it's full PPR, I would probably go Howard, Gervonta, Sanders. In any other scenario,

I'm sorry, Howard, Gervonta, Scott. I'd probably take the Eagles guys. But I have to think about that. I think I'd probably go Gervonta, but I think it'll be close. I think they're all going to be in the low-endb2 range for me uh also buale or melvin gordon um i will let you know when i do my ranking

right now i'm thinking it's truth or dare uh i saw something on bridgewater by the way uh Fangio said, we really don't have an update as to whether he will be available this week. We'll do the best thing for him moving forward. That's it. I thought I also saw that if he cleared that he would start, but maybe I'm making that up. Vic Fangio did say that last week.

He said he's our starter, which really tells you what your lock's been doing in practice this season. All right, everybody isn't even considered a part of the question. We'll, uh, we'll talk to y'all later.

We'll talk to you tomorrow with the waiver wire. Thanks so much for listening for Jacob and Chris. I'm Adam. Have a great day. And if you need something tonight, good luck. Go get it. Get away.