Fantasy Football Today - Week 16 Tough Calls; 49ers-Titans; Emails (12/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 22, 2021

How about Cooper Kupp! Should he be the NFL MVP? Is he the Fantasy MVP? We'll recap Seahawks-Rams (4:00) and Eagles-Football Team (9:15) and give you your news and notes (15:00) ... Week 16 tough calls include Tom Brady (20:15), Dak Prescott (23:30), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (28:50), Gabriel Davis (32:00) and D.J. Moore (34:10) ... Previewing 49ers-Titans (40:00) with a lot of RB talk and our thoughts on Brandon Aiyuk and A.J. Brown. Then we discuss some dynasty WRs (51:00) and read your Apple Podcast questions (55:50) and emails ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. How do you do a Week 16 Tough Calls episode when the entire league feels like a tough call right now? When every important Kansas City Chief except for Mahomes, that's a little bit of an overstatement, is on the COVID list. We're going to talk about it right now on Fantasy Football Today. Welcome, everyone, and congratulations if you won yesterday. If you didn't win, you're done, and you're still listening or watching.

That is dedication, and congratulations to you for being so awesome. Adam, Dave, and Heath breaking down some Week 16 Tough Calls, plus the two games from last night and what we thought about the Rams-Seahawks game, the Eagles football team game. I have a trivia question to start it off. If you know the answer, please do not answer. Give the audience some time to think about it. Who was the last wide receiver to win NFL MVP?

Jerry Rice. Dave? It's the only name I can think of. Dave. It's the only name I could think of. Okay. Unless it's somebody from like, I don't know, 20, 30,

obviously 20, but 30 year plus years ago. The answer is it has never happened. That's what I was also thinking. The only player with WR in his name that has won the mvp was lawrence taylor he is the closest thing to a wide receiver that has ever won the mvp cooper cup's got a chance he is so good is he going to he's not on a 16 game pace to break calvin johnson's record my question was is he going to break calvin john Johnson's record. My question was, is he going to break Calvin Johnson's record?

Probably. In 17 games, he'd be pretty close. Let's say one. And I don't like how far away is he? In 17 games, he would beat it. He'd be on pace for 1,973 yards. Calvin's record was, do you know what off the top of your head? 1964.

Okay, so he'd beat it, but not in 16. A lot of people seem to want to put asterisks on this and say, yeah, but it's 17 games. They played 14 games for like, what, 30 years or something? And then they changed it to 16 games. We don't have asterisks on all the 16-game records. The record's the record. Oh, yeah, that's fine.

He's on pace to break the record. He has been so good. Is he the fantasy MVP? You can definitely make the case for him to be the fantasy MVP. I think right now it's probably between Taylor, because Taylor's been just the only running back who didn't suck. Cup, Mark Andrews is 100% in the conversation um that's probably it three horse race cooper cup is 5.7 fantasy points per game better than 5.6 then davante adams and debo samuel who

are number two per game i mean he is crushing field. How much do the next two weeks matter in the fantasy MVP discussion? A lot, I'd say. You gotta come through with accounts. You're gonna wait it towards the playoffs? Yeah, I think so. You gotta come through with accounts. Speaking of the playoffs, did you notice in the emails that we got about our matchups, which I haven't got to those yet either,

for my leagues that I'm commissioned, that the six seed beat the one seed in almost every league that I'm in. Oh, the three seed. Beat the three. Six beat the three in almost every league that i'm commissioned either the 60 seed beat the one seed in almost every league that i'm in oh the three seats beat the three six beat the three in almost every league that i'm in that also happened in the podcast league you didn't see the email because i didn't get sent but that also happened in the podcast league so who did the six seed beat the three in the four the people league there's no such thing as a six seed in the For the People League. Okay, let's get started with today's show. Rams 20 and Seahawks 10.

Rams had the ball for 35 minutes and 6 seconds. By the way, the Eagles in their game had the ball for 35 minutes and 17 seconds. So lopsided time of possession games there. Heath, the Seahawks offense. Are you optimistic about them facing the bears next week? Wilson Metcalf locket penny. No, why not? Um, well for penny, it's because the bears run defense is very, very good.

When he came Hicks plays, he is a monster of a man who is also an exceptional athlete and a joy to watch, but I i so i'm scared of penny because of the matchup i'm scared of metcalf because of the last two months of my life i'm scared of wilson because of almost the entirety of 2021 and i'm scared of lockett because he's still on the list all right yeah lockett comes back though, would... They have a bad offense that runs 50 plays a game. Yeah. I mean, I don't know

if we've talked... Because normally you think with a big outlier like this, it will change. But Jacksonville and Houston, obviously two of the worst teams in football, have run the second and third fewest plays. They've both basically run 10% more plays

than Seattle. Oh yeah, I talk about it all the time. They're last in possession, they're last in plays. And I think it's because they're toward the bottom in third down conversions. They're just awful on third down. Now, do we give, Dave, do we give Metcalf a pass for two reasons?

One, he got shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. For the last two months? Just hold on. Jalen Ramsey's just been traveling around the country following DK Metcalf wherever he goes. He's in his head. He was looking ahead. He's like, I'm going to get shadowed by Jalen Ramsey in two months.

Oh, no. And the fact that he could have had a huge game if Wilson didn't underthrow him on a deep ball. No, he gets no pass. Okay. Okay. This was the all. In fact, of anything, he should get roasted even more.

This was his opportunity. He had 12 targets. Even if he's getting shadowed by Jalen Ramsey, he should be able to average more than 10 yards per catch and do better than a 50% catch rate against Jalen Ramsey, especially if you are who you say you are. And that is one of the best top receivers in the national football league. And he hasn't been that he's already said it for a while. No pass.

All right, Dave is Daryl Henderson. Sorry. Is Sony Michelle, the guy just 18 carries to six for Daryl Henderson. Yeah. I don't have the snap rates yet. They might be on the game book,

but I just, I think that he's probably the one that fantasy managers will gravitate toward. We shouldn't have any question about which Rams running back to like moving forward. And now I think you'll like Sonny Michel against Minnesota. It's not the easiest matchup in the world, of course, but I think that he'll be okay.

Is he ahead of Rashad Penny next week? Yes. Okay. Sonny Michel played 48 of 66 snaps and Daryl Henderson played 18. So it looks like things have changed there. Cup was great. Beckham and Jefferson were not, and Stafford

was not. He only threw 29 passes. 21 of 29, 244, 2-1. I mean, not that bad of a game. 19 fantasy points. I'm assuming that got him in the top 12 or pretty close this week. Probably top 10. I don't think there's concerns there. Minnesota has been just awful

against the pass. Set up for success next week. What do you make of the bad game from Cup and Jefferson, Heath? I'm sorry. Beckham and Jefferson. We talked about this on the stream last night um about how van jefferson should not be viewed as someone with a very good floor because of like he was just reliant on one big play every week and he finally had a week where he didn't have the big play i don't know that much really changes for him i still think he's a boom bust wide receiver three like he was last week um i I thought Beckham was more of a number two wide receiver and now it looks like he kind of belongs

in that boom bust category with Jefferson, but I still prefer Beckham to Jefferson. It felt like to me that the Rams were attacking the middle of the field. I think about a lot of the targets for Cup and Skronic. I just think that that's where they were trying to make plays. They didn't really want to mess with the perimeter game against Seattle. And Seattle's pretty good against wide receivers. I mean, Cooper Cup's a different beast,

but Seattle, that's their strength. They stink against running backs in the passing game and tight ends. But this is, I think, maybe more of just Seattle only scored 10 points, and the Rams just kind of went run heavy and threw 29 times and five combined targets for Beckham and Jefferson.

That's never good. All right, Philadelphia 27, Washington 17. I said this on FFTN5. It was the best I've ever seen Jalen Hurts look. He was incredible. The interception on the opening drive was obviously not his fault. Totally fluky. The fumble was bad. It interception on the opening drive was obviously not his fault. Totally fluky.

The fumble was bad. It was a bad play. But this guy was completely locked in. And I guess if there were one thing that I'm... Only 39 rushing yards, I think, right? Which is way below what he had been at before the ankle injury. 38 rushing yards. He had been at 55 or more in six straight games,

but I can't really say anything bad about him. He looked great. Heath, give me your thoughts on the Eagles, and then Dave, you can talk about Washington. It was fantastic to see Miles Sanders dominate the way he did early in this game. It was disappointing that they rested him in the fourth quarter like they did, but he said that they were just trying to keep him healthy.

I would like it if Miles Sanders could score a touchdown this season, but I think you feel comfortable with him as a number two running back. You feel comfortable with Hurts as a number one quarterback. Dallas Goddard looked like a superstar tight end. Devontae Smith remains a boom bust

number three wide receiver. When do we take the word boom out? He's not a number three wide receiver. He's just been trash. Because this was such a great game for Hurts and he did nothing. Well,

it was a great game for... Yes, Hurts had what? Two rushing touchdowns? He had 296 yards. Yeah. And I like, I understand that you guys value the last four weeks a lot more than I do. Five weeks ago, he had 66 yards and two touchdowns.

Six weeks ago, he had 116, 16 yards and a touchdown. All right. Fine. How about this? I'm not going to take the boom out of his name because of one month. No,

it's not that. Can you take the boom out of DK Metcalf's name? Fine. It's the last seven... No, first of all, Metcalf's had a much more accomplished career than Devontae Smith. It's the last seven games that he has played with Jalen Hurts since they changed their offense and went extremely run-heavy.

He does not have more than six targets in any of those games. I don't think maybe one. And he has more than four catches in one of those games. He's a six. But he can still be a boom bust wide receiver with six targets. Van Jefferson probably has average six targets. He's a boom bust wide receiver. More likely to boom or bust?

Bust. Probably more likely to bust. I think most boom bust wide receivers are. I think Dave and I are pretty disappointed. I'm so disappointed because Hertz plays so well with 296 passing yards. And I just would have thought more would have been to Devante Smith who had a chance at a touchdown. Couldn't come down and bow. It was a really tough play to pretty good evidence that this game, this game is pretty good evidence that Dallas Goddard is the real number one receiver in Philadelphia.

All right. And so one disappointing thing for Antonio Gibson, he's dealing with this toe injury. He had, I believe, 20 of his 26 rushing yards on the first drive of the game. And he came off the field a decent amount, including on a touchdown drive where Jarrett Patterson got the touchdown. No reason why it should not have been Antonio

Gibson, but he's got this toe issue. I'm assuming that's the only reason he was off the field. So, Dave, how much... He played 78% of the snaps. Yeah, I mean, I'm telling you, it could have been more. But he did have to leave the game and get treated a little bit here.

But he had six catches. We've had times in the past where J.D. McKissick scored the rushing touchdown on a short yardage play when Gibson was fine. This is not the first time it's happened to Gibson. It's true, but he did deal with a toe injury. I'm not making this up. So what's your trust level in Gibson? By the way, that's a recurring issue for him.

What's your trust level in him next week at Dallas on Sunday night? Dave? I'm good with him as a number two fantasy running back. For him to have the opportunities that he had, I love the targets and the catches. I'm not going to be able to overlook that. Now that I know that he's got a chance to replicate that with JD McKissick on the shelf,

I wish they had been doing that all year long. Now that I know that he's got a chance to replicate that with JD McKissick on the shelf, I wish they had been doing that all year long. Then there'd be no trepidation in starting Gibson at all. And they've done it pretty much for the last month. He's got seven, six, two, seven targets over the last month. I've got Gibson in my top 12 right now. He's Josh Jacobs, right? I mean, pretty similar setup.

Yep. That's a great way to put it. Okay, yeah, McKissick on IR in case you missed that news. And Terry McLaurin with 51 yards on two catches. I believe he had a 46-yard catch. It was on Darius Slay, who was basically glued to McLaurin unless McLaurin lined up in the slot. So you had Ramsey taking away Metcalf. You had Slay taking away McLaurin lined up in the slot. So you had Ramsey taking away Metcalf. You had Slay taking away McLaurin.

Unfortunate stuff there. And I would say two almost touchdowns for tight ends in this game. Ricky Seals-Jones was kind of open in the end zone, and John Bates came up a yard or two short. So the Eagles, this close to giving up a touchdown to a tight end. All right, I think that's about it.

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wherever you listen to this show. And by the way, if you're listening on Spotify, you can now leave a rating. We would really much appreciate that. Please leave a five-star rating on Spotify. If you enjoy the show news and notes, Heath,

can you suit up for the chiefs this week? No, no, no. And they still have plenty of players. I, today will be the interesting day. I think if, if there's another six or seven Chiefs that go on the COVID list today, then we have to start thinking pretty seriously about maybe some Tuesday night football. How did you feel? Did you like Tuesday night football?

No. Not at all. It destroys my week. Exactly. We are creatures of habit during the football season. I'm sitting here right now still trying to fine-tune my rankings, and it's kind of chaotic. It's Wednesday at 9 o'clock. My rankings are not published. My tight end preview is not done. It's kind of a disaster. Yeah.

Sorry, guys. Not sorry. Sorry, you guys who are checking for the rankings and checking for the content. We'll get it up. I don't need any sympathy. Okay. Should we just end the show?

Let you guys get back? All right. No, not at all. You're free. All right. So we got Tyreek Hill. We got Travis Kelsey. Also backup tight end Blake Bell.

Starting linebacker Nick Bolton. Kicker Harrison Bucker. Cornerback Rashad Fenton, starting offensive tackle Lucas Niang. Hope I said that right. Cornerback Charverius Ward. A lot of guys on the COVID list for the Chiefs as they play the Steelers this week.

Elijah Mitchell will be a game-time decision for the Thursday game at Tennessee. Deontay Foreman has a foot or an ankle issue, but he practiced in full, so he's good to go, it looks like. MVS is on the reserve COVID list. So right now, do you think Alan Lazard is a waiver wire priority against Cleveland? Yeah, he's probably right where we would have had MVS, maybe a little behind him as the waiver wire priorities go,

which would make him a third among wide receivers. I'd rather pick up St. Brown. Definitely would rather pick up Gabriel Davis. Alright. Cole Beasley, speaking of Gabriel Davis, Cole Beasley is on the COVID list and he's out this week. James Conner mispracticed with a heel injury. They have a

Saturday game against the Colts. Leonard Fournette likely out for the rest of the regular season and Le'Veon Bell in the fold now the regular season and Le'Veon Bell in the fold now. Is anybody adding Le'Veon Bell? Tampa Bay? Okay. No.

This does not matter for Le'Veon Bell's fantasy value, but it's a negative sign for Ronald Jones, I think. Just passing down his work? A big part of Leonard Fournette's appeal is that he was getting five to seven targets every week and they hate Ronald Jones in the passing game so much that they want Le'Veon Bell on their team. Well, they got to sign somebody, right?

I mean, they got to bring in some depth. Maybe. I mean, I thought it was a bad sign they threw to Keyshawn Vaughn so much when he was so obviously not ready last week. Maybe Bell won't be activated. I don't know. Maybe it doesn't matter.

Maybe they're going to throw it to Ronald Jones. I'm not saying you're wrong. I don't think so. Yeah. All right, and they're facing Carolina, and they will be facing Carolina without Levante David, starting linebacker. And he is going to miss two to four weeks.

And they kind of struggled against the run in two games without him. I think it's two to four weeks. He might be back for the playoffs. But they played two games without Levante David, Philadelphia and Chicago. Miles Sanders barely had any work. He had a good yards per carry.

But Khalil Herbert had 100 yards rushing against them. So he's a very important player for Tampa Bay. I don't think you're starting Chuba Hubbard, though. What else here, guys? Oh, Miami not committing to a running back. That's awesome. I guess it clears things up a little bit. What, Dave?

Predictable. Yeah. That's it. And the Eagles became the first team with 175 or more rushing yards in seven straight games since Dave, since the

team that you were probably very fond of. Your favorite football team ever. Dave, what do you think? What's your favorite football team? You're trying to say it's the Bears? It's the 85 Bears. That was the first Super Bowl I ever watched. Oh. What's your favorite football team? You're trying to say it's the Bears? It's the 85 Bears. That was the first Super Bowl I ever watched.

Oh. I started off cheering for the Bears, and by halftime, they were killing them so bad that I felt bad and started cheering for the Patriots to score or do something. Dave, what was the first Super Bowl you ever watched? I remember losing a dollar to my dad on Super Bowl XIX. I don't know who was in Super Bowl XIX. 49ers and the Dolphins.

That was 1984? January 84? No, 5. I think. Yes. Okay. The 84 season. Yeah. And my first Super Bowl was Bill's Giants.

I think that's why I became a Giants fan. So thanks for nothing. Week 16, tough calls. Does that mean that you were a field goal away from being a Bills fan? No, probably from being a Jets fan, my guess. Well, then they saved you quite a bit of heartache. Because my older brother's a

diehard jets fan. And I, I'm sure I would have been a jets fan, but I think I probably fell in love with the giants that day. It was a, it was a good, a good outcome. All right.

Uh, Brady against Carolina. Is this a tough call for you guys? Let's start with that. Heath. It a little bit, but it's not a tough call in that i'm considering starting a streamer over him i guess if you've been carrying two quarterbacks and like the one that might be a really tough

call is jalen hertz if you had hertz and brady on your roster i might consider going with hertz i mean i prefer herbert um stafford as somebody i guess you could have with brady how do you even go about doing projections for this game when we've never seen him without Herbert Stafford is somebody I guess you could have with Brady. How do you even go about doing projections for this game when we've never seen him without Godwin and Evans with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski? Yeah. You just project a lot of targets for Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski and decreased efficiency for Tom Brady is what I did. And I projected more rush attempts and fewer pass attempts.

Yeah. There are four games last year where he had just one wide receiver, just Evans, basically because Godwin missed the games. I think it was all Godwin missing the games. And in those four games, he scored 10 points against the Panthers, 42 points against the chargers,

16 at the bears, 23 at the Giants. So one solid game, two bad games, one huge game. I don't really know what to make of that. You guys are working on your rankings right now. Dave, is Tom Brady going to be in the top 10? Is he going to be the top? First, is he going to be the top five? And then is he going to be in the top 10? He is not in the top five. My top five, as of right now, can definitely change. It's Rodgers, Herbert, Hurts, Stafford, and Josh Allen. After that, Brady is in that next group of five. But so is Tyler Huntley and Joe Burrow.

I think this is going to be a real, you're going to have some tough calls to make at quarterbacks across the board. If you look at your lineup and you've got Stafford in there, obviously Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, thank your lucky stars. You don't have to worry about anything with your quarterback position. Don't have to sweat it one bit. But Huntley, you've got to sweat out Lamar Jackson playing, and then you've got to sweat out Huntley playing well against Cincinnati.

Burrow's been terrible for the past several weeks for fantasy, but this is a matchup that seems very favorable to him. So I think that he's kind of an easier guy to trust. Dak has been terrible. Mahomes doesn't have his top two options, and he's played poorly for

most of the last two months with those guys. So there are going to be a lot of tough calls, and there aren't a lot of great streamers. So right now you have Huntley over Brady? I have Brady over Huntley by one spot. Okay. I have Huntley over Brady currently.

Wow. I get it. I completely get it. Oh, boy. And I guess, do you think that, this is a huge question here, do you think Antonio Brown just is a huge question here, do you think Antonio Brown just comes back in,

plays a bunch of snaps, 80% or more, and is brown? See, that's the thing. I think he comes back, I think he plays 80% of the snaps, but I'm not sure he's going to be brown immediately. He's been three games, he's been suspended for, and he didn't play a lot before then. Huge question mark. Let's go to Dak Prescott as a Week 16 tough call.

He will face Washington. They give up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They just gave up 28 to Jalen Hurts. But they gave up 11 to Dak Prescott just two weeks ago. Worth noting that they lost, Washington lost cornerback William Jackson to an injury last night. They were already playing without Fuller, who was on the COVID list.

Hopefully they can get him back. But it's now three straight games, four out of five for Dak Prescott with 13 or fewer fantasy points and six points for passing touchdown leagues. In his last five games since returning from a calf injury he is averaging nine rushing yards per game so he's giving you nothing there he is also averaging 41.2 pass attempts per game but with a 2.4 touchdown rate um anyway heath starter sit dak prescott

well i think you can probably guess by the last stat that you gave how I'm going to feel about Dak Prescott. If you tell me he's got a 2.4% touchdown rate over the past five weeks, what am I going to say? Start him. Touchdown regression. I will start Dak over both Mahomes and Brady right now. I would start him over Tyler Huntley. Wow.

I'm the exact opposite. Oh, all right. Go on. Well, he's been brutal. His offensive line hasn't protected him very well. The run game was okay. I think Pollard is the key to that run game now more so than Zeke. And he was having a hard time making splash plays with his receivers,

not just last week, but over much of the past six weeks, I'd kind of estimate. So I'd say five. I think he missed the game six weeks ago. Fine. Yeah. So really since then,

how great has he been? No, it's been bad. His, so you think Dak Prescott's bad now no he has been bad for fantasy his 16 game pace in that stretch is 4,022 yards 16 touchdowns 16 interceptions so right he's on a pace for 4,000 yards yeah he's not thrown touchdowns he's also not running and he's throwing a lot of interceptions and Dallas is starting to feel like the type of team

that's going to win with its defense. Yeah, they've been a little conservative. Not blow teams out. Do you think they're going to score 27 points against Washington? Kind of. Short week for Washington. I mean, that is true. And this is where I get in trouble because they're implied point total is 28 and

0.25. So, yeah. So you think they can get there? Okay. I mean, what's their implied point total been the last five games? I do not have that,

but probably pretty close to that. It's the same thing that happened with the Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes was not playing very well Vegas never stopped believing they were one of the best offenses in the league and I think that's a better measure of what they're going to do than what they've done the last couple of weeks

why though that's so interesting I'm not saying you're wrong but you really do rely on Vegas even though you call them Vegas, which is fine. 100, because it will be different on Sunday morning, and I think that will be an even more accurate number than currently. Maybe it comes down to 27 or goes up to 29, but that number is correlated with the number of points a team scores. Betting markets are efficient. They're not perfectly efficient.

They're not always right. But I believe in them more than I believe in what's happened the past month. Okay. And just so you know, in the past month, 21 points against the Giants, 27 against Washington. That was a game that Dak only had 11 fantasy points, but they got to 27. 27 against the Saints.

33 against Vegas. Notice how I pronounce that. I think that this is a team that is scoring right around 28 points per game. Are there any defensive touchdowns? I think... Of course there are. Yeah.

More importantly, like how many games, and I can just go and look this up, how many games has Dak Prescott had with 300 yards and two touchdowns in that span? Oh, one. And that was the Raiders game. He's had 238 or fewer yards in the other four games. Now, look, I think he had some pretty good excuses. Kansas City and Las Vegas, he had no Cooper.

And for three-fourths of those Vegas, he had no Cooper, and for three-fourths of those games, he had no Lamb. Then the New Orleans game, he barely had Cooper. Cooper was pretty limited. It's really the last two weeks that jump out. What the hell is going on? You throw 39 times against Washington, you score 11 points.

37 times against the Giants, you score 12 points. He's off. We talked about this on Sunday, right? It's like every quarterback's gone through their slump. This feels like Dax. But I can't imagine he's not going to be in the top 12 with the state of the quarterback. He's in my top 12.

All right, so Dave's just a little bit lower. He says he's a must start. Let's go to our next guy here. Let's go to Clyde Edwards-Elair against Pittsburgh. And with all the moving parts for Kansas City he's an interesting guy Pittsburgh right now they are they are certainly up there as having the worst run

defense in football Mike Tomlin said they got a lot of young guys on the line who are struggling with their gap integrity they're just not in the right spots getting pushed around yep and they've lost they've had basically two of their top defensive interior linemen out for the season or almost all of the season. So it's catching up to them.

Dave, I'll give you the first word on Clyde Edwards-Ziller coming off a disappointing game with 50 total yards against the Chargers. Start or sit? He's a start. I think you start him as a number two fantasy running back. The matchup is too good. And the Chiefs offense is depleted. And if it stays that way, then it should lead to good opportunities for both Edwards-Hilaire and Darrell Williams. Williams has been getting the high-value touches.

He's been working a lot in the short yardage area near the goal line and on passing downs more so than Edwards-Hilaire. But Edwards- hilaire should lead the way in terms of carries and i think he can find his way to 100 total yards in the game the steelers you mentioned how bad they are this is the set that blows me away and this is this is the pittsburgh steelers they've allowed 415 rush yards to running backs in their last two games now one was against minnesota everybody watched that game and the Vikings run game put on a clinic there, but the Titans did

two just last Sunday. Yes, they did. Heath, how much changes for you if Kelsey and Hill play or one of them play? How much does that change Clyde Edwards either? He'd probably go from a top 12 running back, maybe down to a top 15 or top 18 running back, but I think he'll be pretty close to a must start

regardless. It's a good matchup. I think Jacob Gibbs tweeted out yesterday that he ran a route on 68% of Mahomes dropbacks, which was close to a season high. His snap rate was the highest since week one. He had a bad game. I think he was a little bit unfortunate. He's really close to a must start running back for me.

Okay. We're going to take a break, and when we come back, we'll talk about Gabriel Davis. Only 32% rostered as of right now. Great opportunity. Let me wait till you hear how touchdowns and targets correlate for Gabriel Davis so far in his young career. And we'll be right back on fantasy football today.

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he's caught a touchdown in every one of them. Last year, he had six games with five or more targets and he caught a touchdown in half of those, three of the six. So that's pretty impressive. Maybe fluky, but pretty impressive. Dave, Gabriel Davis. It seems like you're pretty excited about him this week at New England,

but the Patriots are really good against wide receivers. Really good. If you can catch a touchdown against the Patriots and Gale Force wins, then you can at least be a consideration to start as a number three receiver against the Patriots this week. And that's what the situation is for Gabriel Davis.

He's their number two receiver. It's going to be a little bit of a challenge for the Patriots now because he's been playing so well. He's going to draw attention and coverage. So too will Stefan Diggs. Which guy gets the double team in the red zone? I think that that's going to be an interesting dilemma that the Patriots are going to have to work through.

And I don't mind trusting him, even though he's going up against Belichick and company as a number three receiver this week. If it was a weaker opponent, he'd not only be a top 24 guy, he might be closer to like 18 as a surefire number two type of fantasy wideout. I love the way that he's playing. Love the opportunity that he's getting. You know what the deal is with the Bills' run game and how that's struggled. I think that Gabriel Davis can actually come through again

for fantasy managers, and he's trustworthy as a number three guy. That's it, Heath? Just number three? I think I've got him top 25. I'm starting him. Okay. Let's see. I I got a stat here for you. Somewhere. In their last six games, no wide receiver has more than 51 yards against the Patriots.

That is wild. They have not faced a lot of good ones. They faced DJ Moore, Russell Gage. They faced the Bills in that weather game. Cleveland, Tennessee, and the Colts. So it's been tough, easier competition, but 51 yards, no more than 51 yards

to receiver in six straight games. I look forward to talking about that one later in the week. Would you start Gabriel Davis or our next tough call, DJ Moore against Tampa Bay? I think they're both inside my top 20 but i would probably start dj moore over gabriel davis um not a tough call not a tough call i mean it it's so hard to say when there's four teams left you could very easily have three wide receivers that make DJ more a tough call.

You could have Hunter Renfro and Antonio Brown, Russell Gage, T Higgins, Christian Parker, Brandon cooks. Like there's lots of, I wouldn't put Parker in that range with Waddleback, but yeah,

I mean, there's lots of wide receivers that you could have that could make him a tough call. But as I mean, he's basically been a number two wide receiver for most of the season. I think he's probably going to get close to what, seven, eight, nine targets. And if he scores a touchdown, I'll be great. If he doesn't, he'll be a number three. So this is what I know Heath and I would disagree.

You look at the first four games of the year, Sam Darnold threw for 279, 305, 304, and 301 passing yards. And you saw what DJ Moore could be with a good quarterback. He's elite. But since then, the last 10 games, they've had a dreadful passing game. And that's really what I look at here, because in those 10 games, per game,

he's number 47 in non-PPR, and number 37 in full PPR per game. And with Cam Newton, they're averaging well, Cam Newton, PJ Walker, last four games, they're averaging 194 passing yards per game.

So I think when you call him a number two receiver for most of the year, you're really weight, those first four games are really weighted in there. And he is exactly 23rd per game in both formats. Those first four games bring it up a lot. I would assume he's been top 15 or top 20 the last month. Since Cam Newton became the starter, he's gone 16, 14, 14, 10.

Yeah, so he's been good. I didn't get a chance to run those numbers, but he has been good. But I'm worried about it because he does have a 29% target share. He has 37% of their receiving yards. It just feels tenuous to me because their passing game is so bad, and they run the ball into the end zone, you know? And then there's Tampa Bay.

Then there's the matchup. The matchup is tough for me. Tampa Bay's been up and down. It's tough for me to evaluate. They've been very up and down. Lately, they haven't been good against wide receivers, but they just had about an eight-game stretch where they were very good against wide receivers. So that's why, to me, this is a tough call with Moore. Go ahead. I think if we just like, I don't think the matchup matters or it doesn't matter for my projections. Tampa Bay is not one

of the best defenses against the past. They're not one of the worst defenses against the past. They're somewhere in that 80% of teams that are in the middle. They might be good in this game. They might be bad. We don't know. DJ Moore is an elite wide receiver. With this current quarterback, he has been a starting wide receiver. For his career, he's been a starting wide receiver. He had a really terrible stretch in the middle of the season

where Sam Darnold was awful. I don't really have much question about DJ Moore. He might be bad, but I can't find anything to be that concerned about. Dave? I like him much better in full PPR just because of the talent that he has and the target opportunity that he has. I wish it was even more. I wish that he was getting more targets from Newton and Walker,

but I definitely struggle with him in half PPR and non-PPR, but still probably carries upside, enough of which that makes him a low-end No. 2 receiver. You've got to love the 29% target share since Cam Newton became the quarterback. The problem is the quarterback. It has nothing to do with the player. The player is great, but to be a great receiver,

you kind of need a great quarterback. Has the quarterback been a problem the last month? Yes. Compared to the start of the season? CJ Moore? Yes. The only thing that's saving him is the target share. I just told you, they're averaging 194 passing yards per game,

and they've thrown four touchdowns in four games. But it's not been a problem for his fantasy production. He's been good the last month. Yeah, because of the target share. Yeah, because he's getting a ton of targets. But that's why I just think anytime you have a passing game this bad, it's a little concerning, you know? DJ Moore should be a top 10 receiver in fantasy.

Yes. We don't disagree on the talent. He's awesome. So what's holding him back if it's not the talent i i understand that he's not been as good as he should be because of his quarterback play for pretty much his entire career but that does not made him a not a starting quarterback wide receiver he's still been a starting wide receiver with bad quarterback play for pretty much his entire career yeah he has but i think think you said a lot of names

that you could start over him. You know? Yeah. Those guys are all in my top 15 at wide receiver. Yeah. All right. Well, that's going to do it

for our week 16 tough calls. Obviously, we'll preview all the games in the next two days. But we do have one to look at right now and it's San Francisco at Tennessee. Dave, you ready for some Thursday night football? Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah some thursday night football i love this game i think it's so interesting you feeling this game yes uh i think it's gonna be really gross it definitely has gross potential. But that's okay. These teams play gross football.

I mean, it was just yesterday I was watching the Eagles and the Washington football team, and now tomorrow I've got more gross football. Yeah, maybe. I wouldn't use gross football with bad football. It might be gross for fantasy, but I think it could still be a really amusing game. So to simplify it, sit the quarterbacks.

It would be an amusing game if my opponent has players from this game. Well, but that's a thing. Debo is a must start. And Kittle is a must start. The running backs are really interesting. It comes down to who's available for San Francisco. So which running backs do you like in this game?

Mitchell, if he plays. Yeah, I just, like, the thing is, because his practice participation yesterday, I think it's all estimate at this point. I'm not sure if San Francisco is even having any real practices this week. But was DNP. Yeah. So, I don't think he's practiced in two or three, two weeks, right?

I'm not sure. He was in the concussion protocol before last week's game that makes sense so I don't know if we find they say he's going to be a game time decision so we find out at 7 o'clock when the inactives come out that Mitchell's

active we just expect he's getting the full workload I think it's fair that he might not. But he should still get the majority. I would think so. But he had the knee injury. That's only half the problem. We got the number one team against running backs in Tennessee.

And if you buy their run defense, then you should look at what Elijah Mitchell has done in other tough matchups. Now, this is subjective. These are sort of my opinion on what was tough matchup at the time, so you can disagree with that. In week two, he faced Philadelphia.

They started the year as a great run defense, and he had 17 carries for 32 yards. He faced Indianapolis midseason. This was his best game against a tough matchup. 18 carries, 107 yards, and a touchdown. He faced Indianapolis midseason. This was his best game against a tough matchup. 18 carries, 107 yards, and a touchdown. He faced the Rams. 27 carries, 91 yards. He faced the Seahawks.

They do have a very good run defense. 22 carries, 66 yards, and a touchdown. So yards per carry-wise, it was pretty bad. It was 3.37 or less in three of those four games. He did score in two of those four games he did score in in a couple of those in two of those four games um but yeah i mean i i don't he's not the he's not the slam dunk that he would be in a normal situation i guess obviously for elijah mitchell so i just want to bring that up and uh 12 guy and he wouldn't be and And on the other side, the,

what you love about the Titans is they've been trailing recently and they're still running the ball a ton. I mean, they haven't gotten away from their philosophy, but the, the Niners run defense has been terrific for about two months now. So who's the best running back in this game? If Mitchell plays,

he's the best running back in the game. If Mitchell doesn't play Foreman's the best running back in the game. If Mitchell doesn't play, Foreman's the best running back in the game, but I still don't love him that much. I think you'll start him as a number two running back and hope that he can come through with another game with 20 touches like he's done two of his last three games, but he makes me nervous. He's totally dependent on that game script, the 49ers. You mentioned it.

They shut down Dalvin Cook to a pretty good degree. Mixon and Cordero Patterson. That's all within the last four weeks. Two rushing touchdowns in those past four. Only 100 total yard game. That went to Dalvin Cook. I will admit that they're in a tough spot, though. Playing on the road on a short week late in the season ain't easy.

So I can't expect them to play the same way in this game as if it were a Sunday afternoon game at Levi's Stadium. So that gives me a little bit of hope with Foreman. But Foreman also only played 40% of the snaps for the Titans, was splitting McNichols' working as that third down guy and the two-minute guy, and Hilliard started the game. So there's still confusion about how they will roll in Tennessee, and that just makes me a little queasy to rush Foreman in the lineups

and say must-start type of guy. Would you start Deontay Foreman or A.J. Dillon? Foreman. I have Foreman one spot ahead of Dillon right now in non-PPR. Would you start Foreman or Saquon Barkley at the Eagles? Barkley. Saquon. Both Foreman. Really? Yep.

I think Barkley might be top 15 for me in PPR. He might be around there for me in PPR. Probably closer to top 20 in PPR. But it's another... It's kind of the DJ Moore argument. I agree.

When it comes to Saquon, he's going to get a bunch of targets. To a degree, I agree. There's still some things that Saquon's doing that I don't like. It's only PPR, though. What about non or half PPR?

Yeah, it's closer. I'd go Foreman because I think the Eagles run defense has been outstanding lately. And they have, and you always talk about time of possession. They're going to have 35 minutes of possession against the Giants. I still have Saquon over Foreman, but it's like back to back and on. The problem for the Eagles is a very short week.

Yeah, I guess so. The good thing for the Eagles is the Giants. I know, but the short week thing really matters a lot especially in December okay these guys win a lot of football um all right so if Mitchell doesn't play you'd go form it over Jeff Wilson I would Titans have allowed under two yards per carry to a running back in three of their last four games. Wow. Then, Brandon Ayuk, start or sit? And what about A.J. Brown?

And Julio Jones? I would like to not have to use either of them, to be honest. But I think I've got Iuke 33rd and A.J. Brown 34th right now. If we got some type of indication that they think A.J. Brown's going to be a full go, I would be more interested. But we just saw, and it's Julio, it's different,

but A.J. Brown's injuries over the last three years are piling up in a hurry. We just saw a week ago in Julio Jones' first game back, he played 40, 45% of the snaps. So I'm worried that we don't see the full A.J. Brown. I'm worried about it too, but I kind of can't help myself here. I think the matchup's okay.

They've allowed seven touchdowns to wideouts in their last four games. And that, again, Niners defense traveling on a short week, late in the season against A.J. Brown, Niners defense traveling on a short week late in the season. It's AJ Brown, who I agree with you. I'd love to hear about him being full go and looking like his old self. That would mean a lot because now we're talking about a really good receiver with fresh legs playing against a tired defense.

And that just sounds like a recipe for a hundred yards in a touchdown. And not only that, they are much worse. it seems to me anyway. Maybe I'll take the word much out. They are clearly worse, though, without Emmanuel Mosley, their top cornerback. Yeah, we've seen that evidence. So Julio is going to be a sit.

We can't trust him, right? Can't trust him. All right. Tannehill is a sit. I'll get back to Garoppolo in a second. Kittle is a start, obviously. How many pass attempts do you have Garoppolo projected for? 30.

Yeah, the problem for IU, I think. I'm not even considering Garoppolo in anything but a two-quarter rec league. No, but it's Ayuk. You know, because the Titans just cannot score lately. Man, they've been so bad scoring points. And when that happens against the Niners, it's just run, run, run, run, run. And, you know, if you don't get more than 30 passes, how many targets are you going to get for Ayuk? Six?

That's basically where he's been at. Yeah. Six or fewer. And I think there's like... I understand nobody's going to do anything except for start Debo Samuel. But I am terrified that he's going to just lay a complete egg.

Chris mentioned that he had... Even in those games where he was getting one or two targets three straight weeks he had still been running a lot of routes so it was weird and then last week he finally got back involved but yeah you have to start him right just have to

okay yeah go ahead I was going to wrap it up go ahead there are situations where I might sit him but he's not a top 12 receiver for me Russell Gage or Debo Samuel? Let me phrase it this way. Russell Gage or the number two wide receiver in fantasy for this season? Yeah, I would go Gage in PPR.

It's bold. You might be kicking yourself for six months if you're wrong on that, though. But here's the thing. Debo has way more ups. For me, I would be kicking yourself for six months if you're wrong on that, though. But here's the thing. For me, I would be kicking myself if I played the guy who was projected lower just because I was afraid I'd be kicking myself. Folks, don't kick yourself. It's just not worth it.

Would you start a DST in this game? I haven't even started my DST rankings I have let me go to my Niners yeah I've got the Niners as a startable DST I think the Niners

are a startable DST N plus fantasy points to each of the past four DSTs against Tennessee also five of the past six really ever since Derrick Henry got hurt a lot of turnovers

and Garoppolo we do get a decent amount of Garoppolo questions of turnovers. And Garoppolo, we do get a decent amount of Garoppolo questions, so would you rather have Garoppolo or Justin Fields at Seattle this week? Fields. I have Fields ranked higher. Garoppolo or Tua? Garoppolo over Tua.

Garoppolo or Ben Roethlisberger? I have Ben currently higher. Yeah, that... He's been great against quarterbacks over the last seven games, but I think game script changes dramatically if Mahomes doesn't have Kelsey and Tyreek. Garoppolisberger.

I think you could do something with that. All right, we got about 10 minutes left. Let's talk Dynasty here, and then we'll read your questions via Apple Podcasts and email. Dynasty wide receivers, riser about 10 minutes left. Let's talk Dynasty here, and then we'll read your questions via Apple Podcasts and email. Dynasty wide receivers, riser and a faller. Heath Cummings, what you got? Let's talk about a couple of guys who I think are the same age.

I know they were on opening day. They were 28 years old on opening day. They may be 29-year-old wide receivers now. Cooper Cup and Alan Robinson. Moving in completely opposite directions. No, Cup's still just 28. Cup was a borderline number two dynasty wide receiver coming into the year.

Right now, I've got him 10th, and then make it 9th. I think there's some people who would say he should be top five with the way he's the best wide receiver in fantasy this year. He's also going to be 29 at the start of next year. So we don't know how long the future is and we've

never seen a season like this from him. No, it's amazing what he's doing. It's a little perplexing. how is he having this good of a year it's wild um and then alan robinson was a borderline number or he was actually just ahead of cooper cup at the beginning of this year and i don't know i don't know where he's going to go how much money he's going to get or if he'll even be a number one wide receiver ever again. Definitely true.

The best thing that he had done was just be a target hog. You know, it's interesting evaluating a player like him because he wasn't a big playmaker. He wasn't incredibly efficient or anything like like that he just kept getting 150 plus targets and i think the thought was well his quarterback stunk i'm sure there was a lot to that but 100 true yeah but maybe he just wasn't that great either it's tough because he has basically at every stop been considerably better than the quarterback he was playing with in terms of like that quarterback throws the quarterbacks worse throwing to anybody but Allen Robinson. And earning 150 targets per year is a skill.

Lots of guys can't get that many targets because they can't present that many opportunities for the quarterback to throw to them. So I don't want to sell him short. He, I still think he was awesome. The problem is this year at 28, he's not really been better than his quarterback play. He's been outplayed by a fifth round, second year wide receiver in Darnell Mooney.

And now he's going into free agency after the worst year of his career. Maybe the second worst year of his career. 2016 was really awful. Yeah, he's also been, most years, by far the best receiver on the team. He's really not had significant target competition, but this year, as you said, Mooney outplayed him. All right, so where did Robinson end up

in your dynasty rankings? Not end up, but where did he end up in your, where did Robinson end up in your dynasty rankings? So where is he currently 40? Um, and probably 45. Once the rookies get put in, in February or March, I would guess there'll be four or five rookies ahead of them. A landing spot could change that could fix it all.

Now give me one. I'm trying to think, like, what's the best place? How about Green Bay as a number two? I don't, that would not make me excited at all. But if he went somewhere with, let say a deshaun watson who had everything settled and in order and was the number one wide receiver or with a russell wilson and had everything settled and was the number one wide receiver like if he could somehow find a way to a truly elite quarterback as the number one wide receiver then he's back in the top 30 discussion.

But that's it. They made a face when I said Deshaun Watson. Yeah, I think it's top 30 and that's it. Like if he goes to Green Bay as the number two receiver, at best top 35-ish. If he goes to, you know, everything, miracle recovery for Deshaun Watson in Houston, Brandon Cooks leaves,

and Allen Robinson is the number one guy there. Okay, it's never happening, but let's say it does. Maybe top 30. I don't see myself going back to Allen Robinson as a top 24 guy. But if he goes to one of those spots, like lands with one of those good quarterbacks,

he's a good month away from being back in that conversation. Well, the problem with Russell Wilson though, is that there's just the giants have too many receivers as it is. So I don't think, you know, I thought they had to send Tony in the Wilson deal last night. Oh,

that's fine. That's goodbye. Uh, all right. Well, I's fine. Goodbye. All right. Boy, I've really turned on Kadarius Tony, huh? Apple podcast questions. We got from The Man1234. I'd like to hear your thoughts on a two-week-long playoff matchup and how you would approach it.

Would you load up on more high-ceiling types of players in the first week, like Gabriel Davis and Alan Lazard, or would you prefer a safer floor like Stevenson or Jeff Wilson? See where you stand heading into week two, and if you're trailing, then maybe take the boom bus shots, or do you just play your best guys? I typically recommend playing your best guys. Just makes sense.

It's easy to do. And then you do that in the first week of the two-week playoff. Second week, you need to add some boom bus. You got the two-week playoff second week you need to add some boom bust gotta take some chances you know what you got to do i like two-week playoffs but unfortunately the fantasy football calendar doesn't really work for it because week 14 has buys and week 18 you don't want to be playing in but i suppose you could do it in a in like a 10 team league i i think like because there's a lot of different places where there are playoffs with buys and i just like i know why that bothers people but it's not surprising anyone if you're in one of those leagues

on draft day you're drafting knowing that there are players on buys during the playoffs. And Scott Fish does it really cleverly, right? He gives you the average of your first 13 weeks plus whatever you score in week 14. That's a way you could do it too. Which makes sense because if you had Jonathan Taylor, you've had an advantage on everyone through the first 13 weeks. You have not had a bye for your best player.

So you should, you know, you should have to deal with that in some fashion. But not having him for a playoff matchup seems a little harsh. Not having, you know, anybody for a playoff matchup seems, I don't like it. As someone who drafted some Travis Kelsey, I would agree with you.

It seems unfair. Let's do something about it. All right, let's do some emails from Rob. Dear Dancer, Prancer, Vixancer vixen and comet i know them hamsters yeah i have two flex and a super flex spot pick three in ppr tight end premium all right remember it's a super flex spot and two flexes so cam newton pat friarm, who currently has a concussion, Christian Kirk, Gabriel Davis, and Brandon Cooks. I think the easy answer is Cooks and Cam. I think you need three.

You get two flex and the super flex. I need the names again. Sure. Cam, I'm going to say no Friar Muth because we're not expecting him. On his second concussion of the year. Cam, Kirk, Gabriel, Davis, and Cooks. You need to sit one. I'd sit Gabe. I think I've got Kirk ahead of Davis.

So I agree. Okay. From Eric, dear Rick, Arn, Ollie, and Tully. Those are some men. Who are they, Heath? They've just said it. Some what? The Four Horsemen.

Oh. Okay. Good thing I didn't guess. Full PPR. Pick two running backs and... What? I would have liked that. Yeah, I bet. Pick two running backs and what i would have liked that yeah i bet pick two running backs and two flex jonathan taylor obviously so then we need one more running back and two flex

zeke jacobs jake jacobs now pick two flex zeke jamar chase and debo i'm sitting chase i think i'm sitting zeke yeah dave Dave. Woo, that's it, Zeke. All right. You guys are simpatico today. Yeah, I know. Well. No, it's bad for Adam.

It's Kane's thing. Dave him. Sorry, Heath? Dave him. Dave him, yeah. Or Dave Razor could do that, too. Hey, Ralphie, Flick Flick Schwartz and Randy. Is that a Christmas story?

Yes. That is such a bad movie. We got to get it out of the Christmas rotation. There's so many better Christmas movies. Okay. 12 Team PPR Superflex. Pick one. Devin Singletary brandon iuk james connor pick one i think i'm picking connor i would right now i would go connor um

but let's see how the the injuries progress um i'd go Singletary over Ayuk. And how about Devarn Nova? 14-0. PPR Superflex Dynasty League. Alright. He needs

a Superflex. Let's see. What does he need? Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz, or Tyler Huntley? Who do you like? Four point per passing touchdown. a super flex. Let's see. What does he need? Kirk cousins, Carson Wentz or Tyler Huntley? Who do you like? Four point per passing touchdown. Huntley. Huntley.

If there's no Jackson cousins, if there is Jackson and Christian Kirk, Antonio Gibson, Ronald Jones, or van Jefferson in PPR, who's your flex? Kirk Gibson, Jones, Ronald Jones, or Van Jefferson? In PPR, who's your flex? Kirk, Gibson, Jones, Van Jefferson. I would go Gibson.

Which Jones? Ronald. Ronald. I think I've got... I think I have Gibson over Jones. Okay. I think one more here from Andrew. I have a few tricky calls going into the semi-final it's a standard

scoring league he's got Mixon and Pirine Camara Connor and Jeff Wilson pick two of them Mixon Camara Connor Wilson or Pirine Connor

over Mixon or P Ryan Connor, um, over mixing. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not loving mixing non PPR. You said, right?

Yes. I'm going to like, I, I would go Camara and either mix in or P Ryan. And then two wide receivers, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, and Brandon Cooks. Sit Cooper. Same.

And then a flex. Cooper or one of those running backs, Mixon, Connor, Wilson. Non-PPR. Connor. Might go with one of the Bengals running. Yeah, that makes it easy, right? So it's Kamara, Mixon, Connor, Keenan Allen, and Brandon Cooks.

Cool. Good stuff. Good show. Good food. Good friends. Good conversation. And thank you, Dave. I got a laugh out of Dave.

There we go. Dave and I with an inside joke. Dave Razor, everybody. For Heath Cummings and Dave Razor, I'm Adam with Ben Schrager. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today with start or sit for the AFC home games. Have a great Wednesday, everybody. What do Mattel, Banana Republic, ButcherBox, and Glossier all have in common?

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