Fantasy Football Today - What to Watch for in Week 1, HOU-KC, Buy or Sell (09/09 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: September 9, 2020

Finally, we're previewing a game! Before we get to the full HOU-KC preview let's talk about the Brandin Cooks injury (2:06) and who to start if Cooks is out. And we've got more news for you, plus the players who have moved the most in our rankings since the start of training camp (14:00) like Antonio Gibson and Devin Singletary ... Let's preview HOU-KC (21:10)! We know who the obvious starts are, but is David Johnson going to struggle against the KC run defense? Who should you bench for Will Fuller? Is Sammy Watkins in play? ... Dave and Heath talk about how they went about making their Week 1 rankings (33:00) and we discuss what to watch for in Week 1 (40:00). Obviously, RB splits will be huge. Will Cam Newton run the ball? Will the ATL OL take a big step forward? And we finish the show with NFL predictions (44:40) and Buy or Sell from our listeners (49:00). Will the Patriots make the playoffs? ... Your emails at [e-mail] Listen to the brand new Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-in-5/id1528634304 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Okay, one day away from week one, and I just picked up Randall Cobb in a league. Yeah. Yeah, baby. It's 2012 all over again.

All right. Hey, didn't you have, like, a bold prediction or something about Randall Cobb? I did, yeah. I didn't think it would be happening in week one, but, no, I thought he'd have a good, safe PPR floor of 10 points per week, and now he might get double that. in week one. But no, I thought he'd have a good, safe PPR floor of 10 points per week. And now he might get double that.

In week one. Maybe. In week one. Well, it depends on Brandon Cooks, right? Yeah, yeah. Brandon Cooks did not practice with a quad injury. And we're previewing that game today. Texans at Chiefs to kick things off.

We're also giving our NFL predictions, telling you what to look for in week one. And saying hello to Heath at some point. Hey, Heath. Hi, Adam. It's so good to talk to you. It feels like it's been so long. Yes, we talked on Twitch last night. It was a lot of fun and my voice just cracked and I have crazy bedhead because it is eight in the morning. I did have an oblique moment where I woke up way too late today. So getting back into the schedule. It's funny because I think this switch transitioning to mornings is going to make some people possibly be a little bit grumpier on the pod than normal

and probably make me more cheery than normal. I love night shows, to be honest with you. But I'm in. I mean, let's do it. All right, so we do have some injury news, some depth chart news, stuff like that. Leonard Fournette's role in week one. Getting really tired of talking about Leonard Fournette. I'm going to ask you which players have moved the most

in your ranking since training camp opened and kind of how you're doing your week one rankings. It's different than any other week. At the same time, we have an entire season to look at, and we have absolutely nothing to look at when we're evaluating these teams. So let's start with the news and notes though. Brandon Cooks limited on Monday, did not practice on Tuesday. Obviously the game is on Thursday. So Heath, how should we be preparing for this scenario here with Brandon Cooks facing the Chiefs on Thursday? I mean, if you're listening to this and we don't know about Wednesday's practice yet,

or how he was put on the injury report, then you should plan to not have Brandon Cooks. Now, if he's on the field Thursday night, that's going to come down to what are your other options like. I will probably drop him today into the wide receiver four range. But I still think if you're in a league that starts three wide receivers

and you want some upside out of that third wide receiver, he still has a ton of upside. We didn't really hear much about this until the last day or two, and it's a quad issue. And so I don't know. We really don't know. But I would prefer not to start him it sounds like he'd been dealing with something for a long time in training camp but practice

through it was still fast was still separating from defenders if you were healthy i'd like him as a top 24 receiver this week to be honest with you i think that this game is ripe for houston to throw like crazy that's what they did in two games against the Chiefs last year, but I'll save that stat for the Wednesday night preview, along with the theme for the Wednesday night preview, Adam. Oh, we have a theme? If he's out, then our boy Randall Cobb, man of the

episode, steps in. Or is it Kenny Stills? I think Kenny Stills will play his role, right? But I don't know if I'm going to trust Kenny Stills and fantasy in week one unless it's DFS. Yeah. I mean, for those of you, if you care,

I just have kind of crap matchups in week one in this 14 team PPR league. So if I started Randall Cobb, it would be over Ronald Jones. Yep. And Darius Slayton. And in that same game, Sammy Watkins.

So those are the decisions I'd have to make. The Sammy Watkins thing is so weird because we spent the entire offseason and summer never ever talking about drafting Sammy Watkins and drafting Nicole Hardman round 9 or 10 sometimes. And now you get to week 1 and you would clearly rather start Sammy Watkins

than Nicole Hartman. And I would probably rather start Sammy Watkins than Randall Cobb unless Brandon Cooks is ruled out. Oh yeah, I'm not even touching Randall Cobb if Cooks is playing. Yeah, sure. I think Hartman's a sleeper this week. Yeah, alright. We'll get to that game looking forward to talking about that game uh denver's von miller likely out for the season

with an ankle injury which was apparently on the last play of practice on tuesday geez and bradley chubb according to nfl networks jesse palmer is going to be on a pitch count early in the season so uh they've got t got Tennessee in week one. And I mean, this is obvious. This is just terrible news. Von Miller out for the season. Yeah. So like, where's Ryan Tannehill in your rankings, guys, for week one?

Nowhere close to the top 12. No. And it won't change even with Von Miller out. He can be serviceable. He's useful in two quarterback leagues, super flex leagues, if you want to give him a shot. But this will be an interesting test for Tennessee

because it makes the matchup easier and they should be as effective as they were last year. And if they're not, then red flags go up. Okay. I think the biggest change for me out of this,

when we started the week, I believe Denver was a one-point favorite in this game. I think Tennessee is now a two-point favorite. And that's not all Von Miller. Some of the movement was before Miller got injured. But I... Clowney. Clowney signed.

I'm sure that had something to do with it. Right. If you were worried about Cortland Sutton or Jerry Judy because you thought, you know, Denver really wants to just play good defense and run it 100 times a game. They're probably not going to be able to do that. They're going to try.

That's still going to be part of what they do. But Fangio even said during the offseason, look, I want to have fireworks on offense. I'd like passing the ball. So we'll see if he's a man of his word or if he's just trying to stick up for Drew Locke and the decisions that they made in the draft. Starting to get the sense that it's going to be a game that Tennessee dictates. This is also the Jarrell Casey game. Defensive tackle going from Tennessee

to Denver for, I believe, a seventh round draft pick. Unreal trade for Denver. James Conner is the bell cow. Wow, you don't hear that word thrown around too often, but that's what Mike Tomlin said. He is the bell cow. Wow. You don't hear that word thrown around too often, but that's what Mike Tomlin said. He's the bell cow. He has had more than 16 carries once in his last 15 games. And after that game, he got hurt. He had 23 carries against the Dolphins and he

missed the next two weeks with an injury. And then in his last three games of the season, Conner had just 19 carries, obviously playing hurt. But yeah, that's encouraging. He's the bell cow. And if you're drafting today, if you're drafting tonight, are you taking James Connor or are you taking Nick Chubb? Chubb. I will change my rankings today. In PPR, I think I'd rather have Connor. I'm more convinced than ever that Kareem Hunt's getting a bigger share of the work in Cleveland than he was last year. And I know that the

16 carries stat is completely right, but also before he got hurt last year, he was averaging 18 touches a game. Yes, he was. 18 touches a game is 300 touches basically a season. He was a bell cow back in 2018, even if it wasn't like, yeah, with 15, 14, 13 carries, but it was also four catches every game. So like James Conner has been a bell cow when he's been healthy. The Steelers have always, or at least the last five years,

been a bell cow team when they had a good running back. So James Conner, if you got him in the third round, bravo. Leonard Fournette said he finally has a quarterback. Is that true, Heath? What about that Minshew guy? That's fine, whatever. You know, I was hopeful that... No, I'm not even going to say that.

That's fine. I'm glad that he's excited about his new quarterback. Me too. That's fine. I'm glad that he's excited about his new quarterback. Me too. Yeah. Yeah. And he's also saying he's fine with his role. He doesn't need to get beat up every week. And Bruce Arians said that he's going to have a solid role in week one.

Honestly, I don't even want to. None of this matters at all. Okay. So would you start Daryl Williams or Leonard Fournette? The fact that Arians is already... He went from we'll see what his role is to he'll have a solid role in week one after he signed for you. You don't think this means anything?

I think he could end up being the lead running back for them in week one, potentially. Yeah, I think you don't start any Tampa Bay running backs in week one. I think maybe it means something for Fournette's likely to take the job sooner than we were estimating. Like week two. Yeah.

Adam was going to ask and I will answer for me. Daryl Williams over any running back wearing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform. I'll take four net over Williams. All right. JD McKissick is atop the Washington running back depth chart. That's okay. Yeah. Whatever.

His name is first on a piece of paper. Yeah. And as Heath pointed out to me yesterday, we talked about this on Fantasy Football Today in five. Only two rookie running backs

are listed on the first team. One is Clyde Edwards-Elair and the other is James Robinson. So, Heath, you want to give a reprisal of what you said on FFT in five? Yeah, I think

Dave can just give his disagreement because I don't think Dave agrees with it at all. Listen, you can get into a lot of trouble putting too much into week one depth charts or any depth charts. At the same time, I don't think they mean nothing. And the fact that we've got specifically DeAndre Swift,

JK Dobbins, Cam Akers, it's not like they're second on their team's depth chart. Swift and Dobbins are fourth. Akers is third. You should not expect any of those backs to get the first carry for their team. You should not expect any of those backs to get the type of workload that we would generally suggest starting in fantasy. So for me to start one of those rookie running backs that I don't think are going to start for their own team,

they need to be in a situation where I think they might, like Jonathan Taylor might just break a long run or they might run it 45 times because Jacksonville is terrible. I'd start Jonathan Taylor as a flex. Zach Moss playing the Jets, maybe a similar situation. I wouldn't be as excited to start Zach Moss playing the Jets, maybe a similar situation. I wouldn't be as excited to start with Zach Moss, but I'd start.

I don't think you can even consider starting acres, Swift or Dobbins in week one. All right. Now it's time for me to disagree. There's nothing for me to disagree about. I'm with you a hundred percent on all that stuff, you know, and the fact that the stupid law, I'm going to be on the lion's case all year,

Adam, like that, the fact that they've got him forth, that might mean that he's hurt right now, right. And that they don't want him to play. Why in the world? I mean, they shouldn't put him out there if he's not at a hundred percent, but then just say so. Then maybe their practice reports this week will say so.

But Adrian Peterson literally just joined their team and he's second on the depth chart behind carry on Johnson. Yeah. I mean, the, the DeAndre Swift injury, he'd been hurt for so much of training camp. So I think that's got to be playing a role there, but it's definitely wait and see and then, you know, like

you're going to start these guys will have their chance. They'll all have their chance at the top. If Clyde Edwards is the best and then I'm sorry. So you said you said Taylor is a flex. Who's the second best rookie running back this week? Is it James Robinson? I would say it's Jonathan Taylor.

Yeah, I've got Taylor ranked ahead of Robinson. The one that's the total wild card that we haven't mentioned yet is Antonio Gibson. And he could get the most touches of all the rookie running backs, or he could get seven targets and two carries. And we don't have any idea with Gibson, rookie running backs, or he could get like seven targets and two carries. And like, we don't have any idea with Gibson. So I,

I'm, I don't know idea where I have him ranked right now, but it's somewhere in the thirties. I believe we don't have a firm idea on any of these guys, but I've got Edwards, Hilaire, Moss, Gibson,

Taylor, and full PPR for this week. Oh, Moss, Gibson, Taylor. Okay. So obviously I would say there's a start, but would you start Moss, Gibson, Taylor. Okay, so obviously, Edward Taylor is a start,

but would you start any of the... Okay, obviously, Tyreek Hill and Will Fuller. Any other wide receivers in the Texans-Chiefs game over your number two rookie running back this week? That's Zach Moss for Dave

and Jonathan Taylor for Heath. No. Don't believe so. No? Okay. Like you wouldn't start... I? Okay. But Brandon Cooks, if he plays, you would? Yeah, and I'd start three of the running backs. I guess that's not fair for me to say.

You'd start three of the running backs, but not Duke Johnson. I don't think so. Okay. You can't. Why would you want to? Well, I mean, he had five catches in the second meeting he caught a touchdown in the first meeting last last year like and i want to clarify i would start duke johnson over deandre swift and cam acres and jk dobbins in ppr right but not over jonathan taylor

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answering hashtag AskFFT questions. All right, which player or players moved the most in your rankings since the start of training camp? We're back on draft prep now, right? I mean, I don't know. Sure, but just kind of like as you sit here and get ready for week one,

who's made the biggest jumps? Antonio Gibson is the right answer. Can we talk about anyone that's not on the can we can we talk about anyone that's not on the reds the the football team the bucks and the jaguars for the love of pete no football team no bucks and no just so tired of them okay um all right i'm gonna start i've got williams preston williams that's a good one that's a real All right, I'm going to start. Preston Williams. That's a good one. That's a real good one. He definitely moved for me, too.

I do want to talk about Devin Singletary, and I know he's moved down for a lot of people. And Dave, you just said Zach Moss is your number two rookie running back this week. Yeah, and Moss moved ahead of Singletary, so both of those guys, they did the old do-si-do. Darius Slayton, Deontay Johnson. Wait, hold on. We're still on Singletary here, Dave.

All right. Adam has a bone to pick with you. Yeah. I mean, I think that it's really interesting because Singletary, when you sit back and you look at it, he had a really, really, really good rookie season. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry. He had seven carries of more than 20 yards.

And of all the running backs who had seven or more carries of 20 or more yards, he had the fewest carries. So he did it with the least amount of work. So the only thing that's happened is the reports have been bad and apparently he's got a fumbling problem. And that's no small deal. But I am sitting here wondering, like, Zach Moss hasn't even played a game yet,

didn't have a rookie minicamp, anything like that, didn't have a preseason game. Should we really have moved Zach Moss ahead of Devin Singletary? Yep. Because when they drafted him, they started talking about how he reminded them of Frank Gore and that he would take Frank Gore's role. I don't know.

I know that doesn't sound good, but like, so, so he's in line to potentially take that goal line job that Frank Gore failed at last year. And when Frank Gore failed at it, it wasn't Devin Singletary who was taking over. It was Josh Allen who was taking over. Moss can finish that job. Okay.

He's a physical type of grinding running back with some, with some elusiveness to his game. Definitely can power through guys, lots of yards after, after first contact. And as training camp wore on, the reports were really positive about Moss before they were negative about Singletary and more and more the sentiment was, well, you know, maybe we drafted this guy to kind of have a small role, but perhaps they'll split the work. And now that's what I'm thinking is that like when they're playing from behind and it's the two minute drill, you'll see Singletary. I just think that he's the better pass catcher. He's better in open space than Moss is by a little bit. That just makes sense to me,

assuming it's not TJ Yeldon, which why would anybody let tj yeldon play football at this point or want to um but i think zach moss and devin singletary will end up getting an even amount of playing time and i'll give the edge to the guy who's better suited at the goal line okay yeah no i mean the goal line stuff is definitely uh worth watching and chris herndon also big also chris herndon uh hated though. And I'm still with you, Adam. I've dropped Singletary down to a number three running back. I've got Moss as a number three running back, but I would still prefer Singletary, especially week one. Okay.

Yeah, Chris Herndon, you said Hayden Hurst I know has been a riser for us. Not for Heath. He's been on Hayden Hurst from the jump. But we're excited about Hayden Hurst. Dave, you said Darius Slayton. In what way? Good? Bad? Bad. Oh way good bad bad so good for evan ingram and ingram moved up ahead of hunter henry about two weeks ago um it was actually following that giant scrimmage and uh just getting the sense that it's going to be a spread type of distribution of targets and that ingram might see more than the other pass catchers there.

Don't mind having Slayton on my team. Let's just wait and see what happens. But the combination of Daniel Jones still holding onto the ball a little too long. Daniel Jones' arm strength not coming around. Giants have a tough schedule. Sterling Shepard might be their best wide receiver after all. And Evan Ingram might be better than him.

Just makes me not as excited to pencil in Slayton as a starter. Okay. All right, cool. If you want to throw out any other names, that's fine. If not, we will preview some football. Phillip Lindsay moved up a little bit. All right.

Yeah, that makes sense. And, you know, obviously Melvin Gordon fell a little. Like at one point, I think we would consider him like an early, one of the round three types of running backs now. I feel like if you get him, it's round four. Le'Veon Bell fell down quite a bit. I don't know if Heath had Le'Veon fall. He could speak to that.

But Le'Veon Bell definitely fell. What the hell? All right, guys. Let's talk about some football here. Week one is two days away. Oh, no. One day away? Today's what? Wednesday? Today's Wednesday, you knucklehead. They all blend in. And listen, I know a lot of people struggle with credit card debt. So if you're one of these people, please listen to what we have to say about Lightstream. Lightstream is

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Rate includes a 0.5% auto pay discount. Terms and conditions apply and offers are subject to change without notice. Visit lightstream.com slash FFT for more information. The Chiefs and the Texans. Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah. Yeah, all right. That's originally what that theme was for, by the na, na, na, na, na. Yeah. All right. That's originally what that theme was for,

by the way, was for the Wednesday night preview. Yep. Why do we call it the Wednesday night preview? Yeah, we don't. It's the Thursday night preview. It's the Thursday night preview. We shouldn't call it the Wednesday night preview.

You knucklehead. Like Adam, I am a knucklehead. It's early. He doesn't know what day it is. See, I like doing shows in the morning because when I make mistakes, I can just be like, it's early, even doesn't know what day it is. See, I like doing shows in the morning because when I make mistakes, I can just be like, it's early.

Even though I make them all the time. Okay, so your stat of the game. Let's talk about David Johnson. The Chiefs run defense got pretty good late in the season. And not just that. Teams just didn't really run the ball that much on them for obvious reasons.

Running backs averaged 4.1 yards per carry against the Chiefs in their last seven games. That includes the three playoff games. And only 121 running back carries in those seven games. Only one running back had more than 14 carries. That was Derek Henry. He had 19 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown. And he was the only running back with more than 60 rushing yards

in Kansas City's last seven games. They will play this game without defensive tackle Mike Pinnell. He's suspended two games. They will also be without cornerback Bashad Breeland. He's suspended four games. But, you know, it's easy to just start people in this game. Start Mahomes. Start Watson.

Start Fuller. Start Tyreek Hill. Start Kelsey. Start Clyde Edwards-Elair. David Johnson, though. How do you feel about him? I think you start him. Yeah.

All right. Give me some context. I'm not disputing the things that you said about the Chiefs and the running game, and it's true, but they also were amongst the worst in the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs. They actually, these two teams gave up the most receiving yards per game to running backs.

Which makes sense, because teams are generally passing against them, and both David Johnson and Duke Johnson are really good as receiving backs. But we're going to find out just how involved they are. And this is the perfect litmus test for Houston to see if they've really changed, to see if they really plan on having their running backs involved in their passing game, to see if Deshaun's changed.

Because this is a team. They barely averaged three receptions per game to their running backs coming into this year. And Deshaun's career, I'm talking about. Not just 2019. Right. Well, you would think Brandon Cooks, if he's out, that could only help. All right.

So David Johnson is... What is he like a top? I see he's 22 for Jamie. This is a non-PPR. I moved him up to 24 in PPR. All right. So he's not a complete must-start. He's a number two running back. I moved him up to 24 in PPR. All right. So he's not a complete must start. He's a number two running back.

And he's easier to start in PPR because you'll get those extra points. He's a high-end flex and none. All right. If Brandon Cooks and Will Fuller play, rank those three, Fuller, Cooks, and David Johnson as flex options. There you go. You just did. I'd go Fuller, Johnson, Cooks. And I told you this last night,

I've got all three of them separated by like a half a point in my projections. So if you drafted all three of those, that's kind of weird anyway. Yeah, that is weird. Yeah, yeah. All right. Fair enough.

So obviously you'd start him over Daryl Williams? Yes. And we're not really feeling it with Duke Johnson. If by it you mean excitement for football, then you're correct. All right. Well, who has more catches, you think? David or Duke? I don't know. They both might get pushed.

Fun story. I was recording Fantasy Football Today in five last night with Heath. And we talked about Brandon Cook's injury. And I said, so does this make David Johnson like a better flex option? And he starts going off. Well, I'm not as low on David Johnson as you are, this and that. And I'm like, what are you talking about? I'm low on me. And then I goes, wait a second, Heath, we got to stop. I meant to say Duke Johnson.

And we had to record that part over. Was that a fun story? Dave, was that a fun story? Not even a little. Guys, how fun, how crazy is that? I said the wrong D. Johnson. Oh my gosh. All right.

The FFTM5 plug-in, that's all we need yeah that's the c i had creative ways to plug the new show um what do you want to say about will fuller brandon cooks randall cobb kenny stills well if you drafted will fuller and you know that he's healthy get get him in your lineup. The Texans have averaged 47. They did average 47 passes per game, two games last year against Kansas City. Fuller should be able to exploit a Kansas City defense that really only has one solid corner to begin the year. You mentioned Breland suspended to begin the season. Shavarius Ward is their best corner. I would be surprised if he traveled. I would also be surprised if the Chiefs played even five snaps of man defense. They're going to play zone.

They're going to be worried about getting beat by Fuller, and Fuller was beating them in zone last year. He should get over 100 yards at a minimum. Super weird thing about the Chiefs, since we're on the defense thing with the Chiefs. They gave up the second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last year. I don't know why. It doesn't make

any sense to me. I don't expect it to continue. I'm starting Will Fuller as a number two. But I still believe that he has the upside to be the number one overall wide receiver this week. And he has the upside to be the number one overall wide receiver this week and he has the downside to score five points for you so you should be prepared for either of those

outcomes i would be stunned if he scored five points unless he got hurt like in the second quarter then that would be totally normal for him that happens all the time would you start would you start him over would you start will Fuller over, let's say, Stefan Diggs? I think I have him ranked ahead of Diggs, yeah. I have Diggs ranked ahead, but if Cooks is out, then I would.

I've got Fuller, Juju Thielen, Lockett, Diggs for week one. Okay. How about Melvin Gordon or Will Fuller? Fuller. Fuller. Okay. All right, and then we'll see about Brandon Cooks, but if he plays, you can start him.

And then we'd prefer if we had to pick one waiver wire wide receiver from the Texans, if Cooks is out, we'd go Cobb over Stills? I would. I just think he's safer. I'll go Cobb and PPR, Stills and none. The Chiefs, maybe one reason they gave up so many points

or so few points to wide receivers is they gave up so many to tight ends. And Darren Fels actually had two good games last year, 69 yards in week six and a touchdown in the postseason. Any interest in a Texans tight end? There's been talk that Jordan Aikens

could be a more useful part of the offense. I would keep an eye on him. I wouldn't start him. And you shouldn't have to start Fels either. Fels is like a touchdown or bust tight end. Okay. Yep. But keep an eye on Aikens.

And if you're in a super deep league and you've got a roster spot to burn, you could stash him for Thursday only. But big dude, pretty athletic, getting an opportunity. Okay, cool. So the Chiefs, Mahomes and Hill and Kelsey are obvious here. Pretty sure. Clyde Edwards-Elair, he's your first-round pick,

so we don't know what his workload will be, but you're starting Clyde Edwards-Elair. So, Heath, what are your expectations for Daryl Williams? So I have, I mean, it's probably just better to talk about the chiefs running backs as a duo I expect. And there's been talk out of Kansas city that that's going to be a little bit of a, a split Eric B enemies talked about wanting to kind of work Clyde in slowly. I guess he's pretty nervous about his first NFL game. It's one of the things that Nate Taylor wrote in The Athletic this week. So I've got Clyde for 10 carries and 3 catches. I've got Darrell Williams with 8 carries and 2 catches.

There were 3 times last season where Williams had a workload like that, 10 touches or more. He averaged 16.3 PPR fantasy points. Now you referenced, he didn't have a lot of yards, but he was used in the passing game and he was used inside the five yard line. My ex,

my expectation is if the chiefs have Russia temps at the goal line, that Darrell Williams gets those rush attempts. Now, Clyde might still score a touchdown because he has the type of big playability that he could score from anywhere on the field. But I think it's a pretty even split, at least in week one. And so I would start Clyde,

and I wouldn't hesitate to flex Darrell Williams. And to pile on on that, it wouldn't surprise me if Williams started the game. It definitely wouldn't surprise me if Williams was the two-minute drill, hurry up back, and potentially the third down back for Kansas City for this game. It also wouldn't surprise me if this were a blowout that Clyde Edwards-Zalera ends up with like 20 carries and does get goal line work after Daryl Williams gets goal line work. So fourth quarter, Chiefs are up 34-14,

something like that. And they're just mowing down Houston. You'd see Edwards-Alaire in there instead of Darrell Williams, just to give him that experience and to make him feel less nervous about playing pro football. Okay.

And the Chiefs wide receivers here, let's say Brandon Cooks is out I know I asked you this but I already forgot the answer if you take your favorite wide receiver be it Cobb or Stills on Houston would you start Sammy Watkins over those guys or would you start a Texans wide receiver obviously not Fuller because he's yes a different one over Watkins oh man I'd hate to be in the situation in week one already. I will take the Texans pass catchers.

I will start Sammy and non PPR Cobb and PPR. All right. And then the DST for the Chiefs is 10th for Dave or 10th for Jamie 20th for Dave 17th for Heath. I don't know 10th for somebody, but that's not very good. So you know, it's not for me. Yeah, I think it's 20th for you 10th for Jamie 17th for Heath 20th for Dave, 17th for Heath. I don't know. 10th for somebody, but that's not very good. There's no way it's 10th for me.

Yeah, I think it's 20th for you. 10th for Jamie, 17th for Heath, 20th for Dave. There's no way you should start any DST in this game. Yeah. That's a bad idea. All right. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na. That's one game down, baby.

Wait, is the podcast over? Yeah. No, we open and close the... People stopped listening. Well, good. Then we can just mess around the rest of the show adam you had another mediocre show heath you were fantastic as usual um now can i tell you the truth about seattle hot dogs i was just being nice to on the last show oh i have a story to tell you about adam dave he said during the podcast apparently over go ahead that the podcast is apparently over, go ahead. Please, go ahead. Uh-oh.

What'd I say? I don't think I can tell it on air. Oh, please. I said it during Twitch. I can't imagine you wouldn't be able to say it on air. Yeah. I mean, Shraggy can clarify. What was it about?

Yeah, it was current events. You know, I'm usually pretty bad with pop culture, but this one was one that I definitely caught on to. And yeah, we shouldn't really talk about it, but tune twitch thursday night with dave maybe you'll get another funny moment i have no idea did i say something and not realize that i said it yeah oh you made you made some sort of commentary on a social or political or non-fantasy football issue i did no i just said a reference to something this is probably enough of that okay all right all right wow oh my gosh i hate this like i at the end of the show he's gonna tell me what i said

yeah and i am so embarrassed right now i hate this i am not good at situations like this like i said morning podcasts are the best this sucks all, so I don't know how much you guys have dug into personnel in week one and all that, but any defenses? I'm sort of re-educating myself on the off-season transactions for defenses and things like that. I didn't know if anything had stood out to you. Heath, I also want you to talk about what goes into your week one rankings because it's different than what goes into Dave's. So, yeah,, I also want you to talk about what goes into your week one rankings because it's different than what goes into Dave.

So yeah, Dave, I want you to talk about that too. But I guess let's just take a look at like, how did we approach rankings for week one? Heath, you can have the first word. And oh, God, I have a pit in my stomach right now. Most of them reflect pretty similarly to my season long rankings. Like the only adjustments I make for defense in week one come from the Vegas lines.

And if you've listened to this podcast in the past, you know that my starting point for touchdowns for teams is their implied total for Vegas. So a way to figure that is look at the over-under, divide it in half, and if a team is favored by four and a half, the favorite gets a bonus, a boost of two and a quarter, the underdog, you take two and a quarter off half the over under that's their implied total. That's the only way I'm factoring in defense in week one. It's not that I don't think that anything else matters. I'm sure it does. It's that I have a very low

confidence in what's going to carry over. And this will be the case for week two as well. I'm not going to adjust based on one week of what happens. So it'll be week three before I start changing like yards per attempt or yards per carry or yards per reception, any efficiency stuff for offensive players based on their matchup. Unless you see some evidence in the games where a player is just getting usage that you weren't expecting. No, no usage. usage totally i'm open to changing that like i changed a lot of the rookie stuff because it's week one i'm talking

and touchdowns are influenced by the vegas over under which is influenced by the defense so that's being impacted i'm talking solely about a player's yard yards per carry in season when a running back is facing the ravens i'm likely after a couple of weeks going to dock them if they're a guy that averages four and a half yards per carry it might be only 3.9 against the Ravens okay week one I'm not making those types of adjustments so if the Lions do something wacky and give Adrian Peterson 18 carries against the Bears and he does well with them and he doesn't look like a 35-year-old on his fourth team in three years,

you would go about, you wouldn't change it at all going into week two against whoever they play. I would absolutely change it, yes, because that's usage. I wouldn't change efficiency. No, but it's efficiency too. Like if he has a good rushing average

on top of the 18 carries. Yeah, I'm not being clear in what I'm trying to say. Or maybe I'm not getting it. I'm not adjusting offensive efficiency because of the opponent they're facing. I gotcha. I'm not factoring in the fact that somebody's playing the Ravens and probably isn't going to be as efficient as they normally would be, at least not in week one. I am lowering their touchdown expectations, but not their efficiency. What do you think about the impact of COVID-19 on visiting teams? So this is the first time these guys are going to leave their bubble, so to speak.

They're going to get on a plane. They're going to land. They're going to get on a bus. They're going to stay at a hotel. This is not going to be the same type of experience that football players normally have when they are visiting another team. Do you think that that could throw off a team? Do you think that that's something that could come into play? I,

I think I'm giving a little bit of an edge to, to home teams. And that's just part of like the COVID thing that I'm going to discuss, but, but we'll start with that on the other side of that. Isn't it possible that far fewer visiting players are going out to clubs the night before games? Yeah,

I would hope so. Dressing up girls as football players and sticking them into the hotel room is neither here nor there. But yeah, I like, and there's not going to be home fans at a lot of these stadiums. So that I think might help road quarterbacks. I'm not really, I don't know.

I'm not saying you're wrong. I have no idea. And so I'm just not factoring it in. Okay, part two of the COVID effect. You know that these teams didn't have a normal training camp. You know that the defenses didn't have a lot of live tackling drills. Do you think that offenses will lean on their run game a little bit more all offenses across the board i would expect so i would too i think that that's how

like for example new england i would anticipate that's how they're going to try and attack miami i would uh i would you know obvious statement that it would be what tennessee does but even jacksonville home why are they going to lean on their run game more? Who? Tennessee? Oh, I think they can because they want to test the defenses to see how well their run fits on defense, their tackling, their fundamentals, their angles,

all the little things, all the little nuances that go into playing defense because this wasn't a normal training camp and the teams know it, especially the teams that have good continuity. I just don't know why that would affect the run defense more than the pass defense. Unless you're just saying they haven't had any

live tackling against... Right. And now here's Derrick Henry coming at Denver Broncos defense without Von Miller. They could be really, really troublesome for them. But I was going to say even Jacksonville, even without Leonard Fournette and even with a bad offensive line, I wonder if they're going to try pounding the rock against Indianapolis

and really testing that defense. I don't think we can just assume. A, I don't think we can assume that any defense is going to be completely ready and on their game. B, I don't think we can assume that just because the defense is bad in weeks one and two, that they're going to stay that bad against the run, particularly for the majority of the season after. Dave, so how did you go about making your week one rankings? What went into it?

I got out the dartboard and my darts and my blindfold. I definitely start, I kind of go through this weird projection process myself where I assign estimated fantasy point values and receptions to every player. And I definitely gave boost to every running back who I thought had a chance at 15-plus carries and was in an offense that they were familiar in. So you might see that reflected in my rankings a little bit more than you would in a normal week.

But I did find myself any quarterback that was going to play from behind. I did end up giving them some decent yardage, too. I think the offenses could be ahead of the defenses by the time we get to get or get into week one. It wouldn't be surprising if we saw a lot of high scoring games except Bill's Jets. All right. Well, I'll just tell you a few things that stood out to me. So far, I've gone through eight games and looked at some personnel and some trends and stuff like that. The Raiders allowed six 100-yard wide receivers in their first eight games

and only one in their last eight games. We'll just have to see if that carries over. When I find these things, I'm not really looking at, like, oh, this is going to influence my start-sit decisions in week one. I want to see if the trends continue early on in the season. The Seahawks secondary may be much, much better. Their beat reporter, I think, Shil Kapadia for The Athletic was writing about their defense and predicting it's going to be their best since 2016 and noting that

since last season, they've acquired Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, and Quinton Dunbar to boost their secondary. So they still don't have a good pass rush most likely, but their secondary for the Seahawks could be much better. Carolina's run defense was a joke last year. It was, you know, with Jacksonville, it was probably the worst in the NFL. Well, it should be a lot better. They drafted Derek Brown. He'll start, but they also get Kawan Short back.

He played only two games last year. So, of course, Josh Jacobs is a must-start in Week 1, but it may not be the layup that we expect, but it might. But I'm just interested to see if that run defense gets better. I think Jacksonville's defense is pathetic. I think that team is honestly challenging 0-16. The Bengals and the Dolphins are two teams that obviously were great fantasy matchups last year.

You should go into this year thinking they are great fantasy matchups, but they both, those two teams added a lot. And the Dolphins facing the Patriots in week one, they added two Patriots linebackers, Kyle Van Nooyen and Landon Roberts. And obviously their head coach was former, I think linebackers coach for the Patriots. They also have Byron Jones. So now they have maybe with Jones and Xavier Howard, one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFL. So when I'm looking at week one, I, you know,

I'm not saying the Patriots have a tough matchup, but it's not as easy as it was last year. And I really, one of the things I really want to see in week one, and we can just talk about this real quick, and then we'll do our NFL predictions and some buyer. So I want to see if Cam Newton's running. If Cam Newton is not running, I'm going to be very nervous. I'm not saying, you know, Lamar Jackson ran for six yards in week one.

So it's only week one, but that's one of the things I'll be watching. That was against the dolphins too. It was against the dolphins. That when you throw five touchdowns or whatever, I guess you don't need to run. How much fun would it be if Cam had a Lamar Jackson like week one? Oh, that would be awesome. It would be surprising. By the way, the Patriots, I think,

have lost three of their last four games in Foxborough, including that postseason game. I think they lost to the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Titans. So, yeah, I'm really interested in that matchup, even though probably nobody else is. Anything that you guys are very interested to see in week one? That Patriots-Dolphins game stands out to me as one that's interesting

because that Dolphins defense is much improved. I just said all that. I know. I'm just agreeing with you. I'm piggybacking. Chargers-Bengals is interesting to me. Both sides of the ball, we've got new quarterbacks for those teams. Is Joe Burrow going to stand tall behind his not-so-great offensive line

against that pass rush for L.A.? Is Terod Taylor? What if Terod Taylor pulls a Lamar Jackson and he ends up being great? That would surprise me. But the Bengals' defense, they tried adding pieces, and one of their biggest pieces, Trey Waynes, is out for the year with a torn back. That's going to hurt their secondary. I'm real interested to see how that chargers offense plays

they should look quite different than they did last year with to ride under center uh mostly running back splits i'm very interested in seeing like especially especially cleveland like our chub and Hunt like they were last year in the last eight games? Or is it more of a 50-50 split? Does Arizona's offense look any different? Is DeAndre Hopkins dominating targets like he did in Houston? Or is it still a spread-type concept?

It could be both of those things, by the way. The offense could be a spread concept and they just continue to hammer Hopkins. Yeah, Kyler Murray is definitely going to be the one player I'm hoping for. Even if he doesn't have a great game, I just want to see the signs that that offense is taking the next step.

And I also want to see if the Falcons offensive line, which drafted two rookies in 2019, dealt with some injuries. There's reason to believe that this is an offensive line that could take a big step forward, and that would really be huge for Gurley because he did not run behind a good offensive line last year. Basically, everything about the Rams-Cowboys

game is interesting. Even the kickers. Greg Zerlin is the kicker for the Cowboys now. No, that is super interesting, Heath. Don't put it down. All right, let's do some NFL standings predictions, then we'll finish with buy or sell on your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com.

Who wants to go first? What are we doing? Picking the NFL standings. Give me the division winners. Is one person doing every division? Should we start with the division? All right the Dave? Why don't you give me the AFC East? Who's going to win it? Buffalo will win the AFC East. I

really was tempted to say Miami. I'm going to go with Buffalo. We don't have a ton of time, so just let's just go through the team with the best quarterback and the best coach, the Patriots. I'll take in the bills as well. NFC North NFC North. NFC North.

God, they all kind of stink. I think the Packers. Oh, AFC North. AFC North. Derp. Ravens. Steelers. I'm also going Steelers. I got wacky with my predictions, just for fun.

Steelers are wacky? I think the Ravens were the number one seed. They were, what, 13-3 last year, right? That doesn't mean that the Steelers... There's a reason. The Steelers lost a bunch of players, including their quarterback last year. Wait, wait.

The Ravens weren't 13-3 because the Steelers lost a bunch of players. No, but they were helped in their race for the division because the Steelers lost Roethlisberger and Conner and everybody else. It's not that wacky. No. 14-2, by the way.

They were 14-2. Okay, who's winning the South, AFC South? Colts. Titans. Colts. Titans. Colts. Who's winning the West?

Chiefs. I couldn't get wacky there. Wild cards. Miami. There's three wild cards this year right oh is there excellent yes there are that is fantastic yeah uh baltimore will be a wild card the chargers will be a wild card the dolphins will be a wild card. Chargers, Steelers, Texans. Okay, I really don't want to put the Patriots in the playoffs. So that was easier with six teams.

Now I have to pick a seventh. I'm still keeping the Patriots out of the playoffs. Ravens, Raiders, Texans. See, this is where you can get a little crazy. The Raiders Texans. See, this is where you can get a little crazy. The Raiders, they just have to go two and four in their first six games

and not one in five because they got Carolina Saints, Patriots, Bills, Chiefs, Bucks. If they're not completely buried at that point, I think they could make the playoffs. Are we still doing the thing where it's hard to go from the West Coast to the East Coast? Well, they're not on the West Coast anymore.

Oh, okay. Well, they kind of are. They've shaved like 40 minutes off of their flights. It's huge. It's huge. All right, NFC East. Cowboys. Cowboys.

Yeah, me too. NFC North. Packers. This division. Packers. Oh, I hate this division. Yeah, I play with the Packers too. NFC South. Packers. This division. Packers. Oh, I hate this division. Yeah, I play with the Packers too. NFC South.

Saints. Saints. Yep. Saints. NFC West. Arizona. Nope. Seattle.

Me too. San Francisco. I took Seattle. All right. Three wildcard teams. I wanted to keep San Francisco out of the playoffs, but I didn't. Arizona. San Francisco. of the playoffs, but I didn't. Arizona,

San Francisco, Tampa Bay. Green Bay. Not in that order. You already picked Green Bay to win the division. Minnesota, Atlanta, and the Rams. Okay. I went Tampa Bay, Rams, Niners.

Time for some buy or sell. By the way, here... Super Bowl prediction? What's that? Oh, yeah, sure. Super Bowl prediction. Go for it. Saints over Steelers. Sorry, Heath. You don't have to apologize to me. Make all the bad picks you want.

So you've got Chiefs over... Let's go Chiefs over Cowboys So you've got Chiefs over? Let's go Chiefs over Cowboys. I'll go Chiefs over Chiefs over Saints. Finally going to be their year.

Saints over Chiefs. Saints over Chiefs. Okay, there we go. All right, buy or sell from Caleb Ivey. Both James White and Tariq Cohen will outscore Nick Chubb in PPR in week one or half PPR.

Buy. I don't buy it, but I like it. Wait, do you ever rank that way, Dave? I think I have Cohen over Chubb. I don't think I have have Cohen over Chubb I don't think I have James White over Chubb but I could buy it happening okay yeah I don't

want to have to like I'm happy I don't have Nick Chubb in week one and if David Montgomery plays and that'll change only week one Elo Samayet the Patriots are tanking but are making it look like they aren't with the Cam Newton signing so I saw that I think they want to win from the Patriots are tanking, but are making it look like they aren't with the Cam Newton signing.

So, I saw that. I think they want to win. From Joe Arancio, Zach Moss will finish at least 10 spots higher in the running back rankings than Devin Singletary. So,

so. From Matt, Darren Waller finishes with more receptions than any Raiders wide receiver. Bye. Bye. Yeah.

JP Faulkner. Scotty Miller will be 79% owned by the end of the season. So oddly specific. Also, Wes Marsh Titans DST becomes top five with Clowney. Yeah, I think that could happen. I'll buy it, especially for week one.

From Jack, Raiders will be a top 12 DST this year. So... I will sell it, but I could kind of see it. Kind of. Yeah, I picked them to make the playoffs. I don't really know why, but I just don't think their defense is good enough. Because you're being crazy.

It's Adam's crazy NFL picks. I guess so, but I just don't... Brought to you by Crazy Glue. Adam accidentally gets a suck to his fingers all the time. And sniffs it. Okay, from Devin Simmons. By herself, Jarek McKinnon is the second most targeted 49er in week one behind Kittle and finishes week one as a top 24 running back in all formats.

Jarek McKinnon. Sell and sell. Buy and sell. Esgardo Saenz. Daniel Jones finishes top 10. Sell. Sell. Andrew Lee. Alan Lazard is the clear-cut wide receiver two in Green Bay. Sell. Andrew Lee, Alan Lazard

is the clear-cut wide receiver 2 in Green Bay. Buy. Sell. From Danger. Oh, you said sell? Who is it? MVS? Well, I think MVS has a chance to muddy it up and not make it so clear-cut. Gotcha.

I did a draft yesterday with Rene Minnemeyer, actually. And the two of us picked Alan Lazard and MVS little friendship strategy, hoping that we've got

the number two pass catcher in Green Bay on our squad. Good luck. Darrington Evans will be the top waiver pickup of the year.

I mean, so I'm going to sell it just because I don't want to speak it into existence. From Ryan Pendergrass, carry on Johnson is not only the highest scoring running back for the Lions, but he finishes in the top

15 running back by for week one. All right, Bob in California, the Browns will have two top 20 running backs by you can see it happening. I do have a rank that way. All right, Bob in California. The Browns will have two top 20 running backs. Bye. You can see it happening.

I do have it ranked that way. Wow. And from Jord, Hayden Hurst ends the season as a top five tight end. Bye. So. Okay. From emails now from Mitch, what percent of your fab are you spending on James Robinson?

11. I'd go even lower. 7. From Kyle in upstate New York, would you add James Robinson or Daryl Williams and drop Daryl Henderson? I would add Robinson ahead of Williams, and I would drop Henderson, and if I didn't like what I saw from the running back I picked up, I would

go get Henderson again. I think I'd rather have man it's a good point Dave it's there it's it seems seems unlikely that Daryl Henderson if he plays is going to have a big week one and there's going to be a huge rush to get him and and I I think he's got the most potential of the three so if you're really in a spot where you love your running backs and you don't want to try catching lightning in a bottle, then just hang on to Henderson. I'm going to say Darrell Williams, um, just because it's an Island game. And if he like scores a couple of touchdowns or if Clyde fumbles once, I I'd rather have Williams. All right. This is from Chad from a mountain city in South Carolina. Uh, I only know like three cities in South Carolina? I only know

three cities in South Carolina. We'll go with Greenville. I got married in South Carolina. It wasn't in a mountain city, but it wasn't a very small town. Name? Aiken. That must be it. Aiken, South Carolina. Half PPR, I need two. McLaurin,

Metcalf, Fuller, John Brown. Metcalf, Fuller, John Brown. Metcalf and Fuller. I think I agree with that, actually. I'm a little worried about McLaurin this week. I'm going to have him as a set. I think the Eagles can put

Darius Slay on him. Slay did a good job against him last year. Yeah, I still have to look up Slay. Oh, he did. Okay. I didn't look up any of Slay last year. He did an still have to look up Slay. Oh, he did. Okay. I didn't look up any of Slay last year. He did an okay job. I think possibly... He held him to a 30% catch rate. I would say that's better than an okay job. Yeah, I think McLaurin beat

him numerous times, but that was during the really bad Dwayne Haskins portion of the season, but regardless. Luke from Toronto. Half PPR. Sterling Shepard Jordan Howard Zach Moss Moss Shepard and

from Ryan who should I start in my 14 team non PPR league this Sunday I have a couple running back injuries so I'm thinking it's either JK JK Dobbins or Malcolm Brown let's go around Brown's probably I'm thinking it's either J.K. Dobbins or Malcolm Brown. Malcolm Brown?

Brown's probably safer, but the matchup for Dobbins is better. I think Brown's more likely to score a touchdown. Yeah, yeah. And that gives him more upside. But I would see if Darrell Williams is available on the waiver wire. I'd rather start him than either of them. More carries for Brown. All right, that's it for today's show. We previewed a game.

It's football time. We did. And now Adam's going to find out. I honestly have had a pit in my stomach for a half hour now. What went out over Twitch for people to hear? The best part is it's not like even... I hope it's not that bad. Oh my god.

Oh, wow. If Schrager knew it, that's the thing. Schrager realized it and I didn't, that's bad. No offense. It was more funny than bad, so it'll be good to find out. Alright, cool. Hey, thanks a lot everybody. Thanks for listening. We're going to talk to you tomorrow with Starter Sit for the AFC

Home Games Friday, the NFC Home Games Saturday, a mailbag. Get your questions in via Apple Podcast Review. Also, if you're sending emails right now, just know I've got like 50 of them in my inbox right now. I'm not going to respond to all of them, but I'll try to take some time at some point to respond to as many as I can. I'll do my best.

For Dave and Heath and Shraggy B, I'm Adam. Talk to you tomorrow.