Fantasy Football Today - What We Can Learn from "Points Per Game" Stats (07/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 30, 2020

Nominate us on PodcastAwards for the Sports category https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup/ At times it makes more sense to look at points per game rather than total Fantasy points, and that's what... we'll do today as we evaluate certain players like Kyler Murray and Joe Mixon. First, we've got COVID news (2:40) as Nate Solder and Devin Funchess opt out and more NFL news to cover (7:30) ... We look at the Top 10 in points per game at each position (15:45) and tell you what stands out. Then let's look at some revealing ppg examples like how similar Murray, Gardner Minshew and Daniel Jones were in 2019 (25:41) ... James Conner was better than Mixon per game (33:45). Also, ppg stats on Marlon Mack (38:40) and several WRs (45:05) including how Stefon Diggs and John Brown averaged the same amount of Fantasy points and why Julian Edelman and Sterling Shepard might be underrated ... Your Apple Podcast questions (54:30) and email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for?
Starting point is 00:00:38 Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline
Starting point is 00:00:54 at 1-866-531-2600. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Hey everyone, just a quick announcement. The episode you're about to hear was recorded on Wednesday before the Damian Williams news broke, so you won't be hearing about Damian Williams or Clyde Edwards-Elair on today's show.
Starting point is 00:01:14 If you want to hear about that, we did record a bonus pod that was published on Wednesday afternoon, so go check that one out. All right, enjoy the show. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Check that one out. All right, enjoy the show. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play.
Starting point is 00:01:32 It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races. Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Got an email from a listener last week that said, you guys should talk more about points per game.
Starting point is 00:01:49 Why do I care about where these players finish? Tell me how they did points per game. All right, good idea. Today's show is all about that. Some noteworthy point per game notes, noteworthy notes from last year. Like Stefan Diggs and John Brown averaged the same amount of fantasy points per game last year. And now they're on the same team.
Starting point is 00:02:05 What does that mean? Then we'll also compare Daniel Jones versus Kyler Murray versus Gardner Minshew and the points per game there. You're not going to believe who was last in that group. We welcome you to this show here on a Wednesday for us, a Thursday for you. Adam Azer with Ben Gretsch and Heath Cummings and Jamie Eisenberg. And what's up, guys? How we doing, Jamie?
Starting point is 00:02:25 Doing great. Had a great interview with Matt Ryan on CBS Sports HQ today. Very nice. He told us a lot of fun stuff about Hayden Hurst and Calvin Ridley and Todd Gurley. You should check it out. Give me like one juicy nugget. He said Hayden Hurst is cut from a different cloth. Comparing him to Tony Gonzalez and Austin Hooper.
Starting point is 00:02:47 He said he's a better athlete than those guys, at least what he's done so far working with him. All right. Heath, who have you spoken to today? I'm wondering on this point per game thing, is this going to be like official points per game or Acer points per game? Mostly official points per game, but there are like, how can you take Daniel Jones's points per game or Acer points per game? Mostly official points per game.
Starting point is 00:03:05 But there are like, how can you take Daniel Jones's points per game and count week one when he threw four passes? So we're going to do like Gardner Minshew and Daniel Jones are going to be like actual games they played. Started. Started. Just started. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:03:20 Just started. Uh-huh. Well, both. I have both. But... Start in America? Are you giving Gardner's London game? I count the London game, yeah.
Starting point is 00:03:30 That didn't even happen in America. We don't play games in London anymore. We don't need to count the games that happened in London before. Maybe they'll move the entire season to a London bubble. You never know. We got more opt-outs to talk about today. Hot off the press, Nate Solder. Again, this is Wednesday afternoon for us.
Starting point is 00:03:49 Giants left tackle. Has not been a very good left tackle, but a veteran left tackle nonetheless. Opting out, Packers wide receiver Devin Funchess. Has not been a very good wide receiver, but a veteran wide receiver nonetheless. Devin Funchess opting out. Which one is a bigger deal for fantasy? Nate Solder of the Giants or Devin Funchess opting out. Which one is a bigger deal for fantasy?
Starting point is 00:04:05 Nate Solder of the Giants or Devin Funchess of the Packers? Ben? I guess Solder, yeah. I mean, he's a starting tackle. I don't know that Funchess wasn't even necessarily going to play a ton. There was a possibility he could have competed for the number two spot, but
Starting point is 00:04:21 especially with a shortened offseason, I was expecting Lazard to be that guy. He already had developed a little bit of a rapport with Rodgers late last year. And Funchess didn't really get a ton of guaranteed money or anything. He got kind of a small contract. I don't know that the Packers were really relying on him
Starting point is 00:04:35 being like the guy or anything. What do you guys think, Heath? Yeah, I don't know that these moves are not going to cause me to adjust my projections or rankings in any way okay uh Jamie is this bad news for Daniel Jones that they could theoretically move their right tackle uh Andrew Thomas who was the fourth pick in the draft over to left tackle but he's a rookie with no minicamps or anything like that. They have, I think, Cameron Irving, who's a veteran from the Cowboys,
Starting point is 00:05:09 who's just kind of a swing tackle. But this is not good. How big of a deal is it for Jones? I don't think it's a huge deal for Jones. It's not great. But I don't think that Solder was going to make or break Daniel Jones this year. Obviously having better protection helps that goes without saying,
Starting point is 00:05:28 but based on what soldier has done as a member of the giants and the fact that they did draft someone as high as they did, who has the pedigree that he has, I think that should allow for hopefully similar play, if not a potential upgrade. So for me, it's more fun just because I, now it kind of solidifies if you're in the Alan Lazard camp that he should be the guy there
Starting point is 00:05:49 because of what else is, is around, um, this receiving core behind Devante Adams. And then if you're looking for a couple of sleeper options, uh, Jay Sternberger becomes another one of these late round tight ends. If you're looking in deeper leagues, as well as maybe somebody like we talked about earlier this week, Reggie Bedleton. You know, somebody, or Begleton, however you pronounce it. You know, getting an opportunity from the CFL. You know, so Marcos Valdez-Scantling as well. So I think
Starting point is 00:06:13 you know, you should be relatively excited if maybe you traded Alan Lazar to somebody in a dynasty league and had to part with him. Like I did to he. I say Cameron Irving for the Giants. Cameron Fleming would be the offensive lineman formerly of the Cowboys. Not that anybody really cares.
Starting point is 00:06:30 That's all the opt-out news we got right now. We do have some other news and notes from around the NFL, and then we'll get into points per game. We are also one of 20 finalists for the sports category of the People's Choice Podcast Awards. If you're tired of me telling you this, we only have a couple more days. The nomination process ends at the end of the month,
Starting point is 00:06:45 the end of the month of July. So please, please, please go to podcastawards.com slash app slash sign up. Toggle down to the sports category. This is the last chance to nominate us. We've got the link in the top of the episode description. And there is apparently a pizza party versus pick six, Shrager. What's going on here?
Starting point is 00:07:03 Yeah, winner gets a pizza party. We'll see if anybody's a finalist versus pick six, Shrager. What's going on here? Yeah, winner gets a pizza party. We'll see if anybody's a finalist between us two, but we better beat out Brinson and those guys. How does a pizza party work in today's age? We each get a box of pizza, eat it over Zoom, broadcast it. I think it sounds good. I'm going to guess Heath, you, me, and Dave get the reaped rewards of the pizza party
Starting point is 00:07:23 because we are technically still in the home base office. Schrager is not right now. Azar and Ben Gretsch get screwed because of where they live. But we can all take part in that if our bosses decide to purchase that. I've also, somebody tweeted at us, will any of you shave your heads as a result of the nomination? I said if we win, I would shave my head. So if we win the award,
Starting point is 00:07:50 if we win the award, and I think he said he would do the same, if we win, not just be nominated, win. We have to win. I'll shave my head. Wait, I'm not going to be feeling any pressure here. I'm keeping my hair. It's great. You know what? Screw it.
Starting point is 00:08:05 I will shave Jamie's head also if we win. Okay? I am in. I love it. I'll tell you what. I will meet you at a neutral site, and you can shave my head. We'll do it on the air. Okay.
Starting point is 00:08:17 Like North Carolina or something like that. Okay, we'll drive. Whatever's halfway, we'll driving distance. No problem. And join our Facebook group, everybody. Search Fantasy Football Today on Facebook. The link to that is also in the episode description. You can chat with our FFT team throughout the year.
Starting point is 00:08:31 Fantasy Football Today on Facebook. Let's go through some news and notes. Oh, I forgot the biggest one. That Lamar Jackson wants Antonio Brown, it seems. He's lobbying for him a little bit. Meanwhile, the Ravens have talked to Jordan Reed and Delaney Walker, according to The Athletic. Heath, anything here with these developments?
Starting point is 00:08:53 It is interesting how it seems like all the quarterbacks want Antonio Brown. And he's unretired now for the 17th time. So it's something to watch. I still think it's really tough to bring in free agents at this point. So we may have to wait a little while longer, but it's kind of hard to believe
Starting point is 00:09:16 that somebody won't take a shot at some point. All right, we'll play a fun hypothetical. I think everybody's got Mahomes ranked ahead of Jackson in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. If the Ravens sign Antonio Brown... No. If the Ravens sign Antonio Brown, are you still taking Mahomes over Jackson?
Starting point is 00:09:36 Yes. You're right, Heath. I was going to ask it the other way. Okay, so Heath says still Mahomes. Jamie Benn, still Mahomes? Yes, in six points for passing yeah four points I would take Jackson all right let's see to a
Starting point is 00:09:53 tongue of Iloa has been clear to practice the Chargers signed Joey Bosa to a five-year $135 million deal we talked about Alshon Jeffrey on the pop list Corey Davis is on the pop list and so is right tackle Isaiah Wilson for the Titans is this Our deal, we talked about Alshon Jeffrey on the pup list. Corey Davis is on the pup list, and so is right tackle Isaiah Wilson for the Titans.
Starting point is 00:10:08 Is this a big deal? Ben? It's not a good thing because they lost Jack Conklin. We talked about it a little bit yesterday, but Dennis Kelly is not a particularly bad replacement. It's just, and I think they're probably going to go with Kelly. Regardless, it's just an extension of think they're probably going to go with Kelly regardless. It's just,
Starting point is 00:10:25 you know, an extension of the fact that they lost Conklin this off season, their offensive line is going to be a little bit worse. What about the Corey Davis news? I mean, what do you want me to say? He wants to say AJ Brown's even better. I mean,
Starting point is 00:10:42 AJ Brown and John Smith, you know, hopefully the, you know, the targets get even more concentrated for those two. Yeah, look, being on the pup list at this point doesn't mean you're going to be
Starting point is 00:10:52 missing the first six weeks of the season or anything like that. You can always come off the pup list. You've got a long ways to go. I got three things for you. One, it was, I think, mercury news um in their breakdown of the running backs of the 49ers suggested that if jared mckinnon is healthy could be a threat to tevin coleman's job really not that fascinating to see uh that's clearly just a writer speculating
Starting point is 00:11:21 but you know you never know how that'll work itself out now that Raheem Mostert has his deal solidified. The Akron Beacon Journal suggests that Jarvis Landry is a big concern coming back from the hip injury, which I think we could expect, but not on the active pop list, which is a good sign for him. But something to keep an eye on with his hip injury. And then we don't often get this. I was looking for some stuff, some some notes for the hq show uh will fuller not being on the active pup list i think is a great sign the fact that he's coming back from the hernia surgery that he's going to seemingly be ready to go you know so as we keep an eye on is it cooks is it brandon cooks is it uh fuller who's going to be the number one receiver
Starting point is 00:11:59 they're replacing down to hopkins a healthy will fuller would be very exciting it's bringing ben to tears the idea of a healthy i have had a habit of like giving something to my windpipe during shows lately i have no we had a we had a fun debate um brief debate uh so we did i think i mentioned this earlier five guys to target five guys to dave and for heath mine will be on thursday um and dave had will fuller as a player that he's avoiding. And so, you know, he brought up the injury concerns and, you know, his, his lack of consistent production. And then Heath, you know, gave a little bit more credibility to Brandon Cooks that he's not getting the respect I think he deserves or that he thinks he deserves.
Starting point is 00:12:39 And it was funny because Dave said he likes the fact that Fuller is going in round six and round seven. I think that's where Ben and I are sort of fighting for Will Fuller. And Heath and Dave are like, nope, I'm out unless it's round eight or later. In our normal CBS ADPs, I get the eight, nine turn right now. And so I do think for a lot of people out there, one of the things I tried to clarify on HQ was I'm anti-Will Fuller a lot of times on the podcast because it's a Will Fuller in the sixth round discussion. If people are able to draft him in the eighth round, I'm pretty okay with Will Fuller. I think that's the place where you take shots at your lottery tickets.
Starting point is 00:13:15 Yeah. And I think for me, I always have to debate between Will Fuller and Brandon Cooks. What do you guys do there? I go Cooks. I go Fuller. And I just love that Heath had to close that by calling Will Fuller a lottery ticket, which is just such a gross misstatement. What are you talking about? We can be reasonable about players and what they have been in the NFL. Okay.
Starting point is 00:13:40 He's been injured. That doesn't make him a lottery. He's also been productive when he's been out. He had two games with more than 50 yards last year. I think by the time the year is over, if he plays 13 games. One of them was the biggest score single week. That's a lottery ticket. Yeah, you're not helping your case here, Ben. Well, I mean, okay, on a weekly basis,
Starting point is 00:13:59 but that doesn't mean as a player he's a lottery ticket. As a pick, he's a lottery ticket. That implies that the guy might be a total zero. He might be a total zero. He had the best single game in the last five years last year. I know it's one game, but you can't just say that didn't happen. That was a 50-point fantasy game. A lottery ticket implies a huge upside.
Starting point is 00:14:18 That is not a derogatory term. I think it's a fair moniker to give him. But I do think that if he plays 13-plus games, which doesn't happen very often. I think it's maybe fair moniker to give him. But I do think that if he plays 13-plus games, which doesn't happen very often, I think it's maybe happened once for his career, we're going to see a top 20, if not top, potential 10 type wide receiver. On a weekly basis, you can call him a lottery ticket.
Starting point is 00:14:38 I will accept that. Yeah, but people forget about 2018. He was more consistent in 2018. These were his non-PPR fantasy points. 17, 16, 10, 1 lottery ticket. 3 lottery ticket. 6 and 18. But that's 4 games out of 7 with double-digit fantasy points.
Starting point is 00:14:57 3 with 16 or more. 1 game with 6. 6 catches for 68 yards. It's a perfectly fine game. 2 horrible games. But he was a lot more consistent in 2018 and I think people overlook that with Will Fuller. I think the thing is, though, he's been in the
Starting point is 00:15:09 NFL for four years and the year you're choosing to tout his consistency is a year where he played less than half the year and in 40% of those games, he scored six or fewer fantasy points. He's not a consistent player. I mean, I certainly am not ever trying to argue that a guy with his ADOT and his boom
Starting point is 00:15:27 downfield profile is a consistent weekly player, but you're saying in a draft sense that he is a lotto ticket, which is something I reserve for like handcuffs where you're just like hoping that they have the opportunity even. You're hoping that Will Fuller in year five produces the first good fantasy season of his career. That's a fact. So I would think 2018. I think 2018 was a pretty good season.
Starting point is 00:15:52 Don't you? I mean, it was only seven games. Are you talking about per game or talking about a full season? Well, I mean, you know, we apply the 2018 season for half a year for AJ Green when we talk about how good he could be. I don't know why we can't do the same thing with Will Fuller. Let's get a little 16 game pace, shall we? In 2018. Let's see what it was. 73 catches,
Starting point is 00:16:12 1,150 yards, and 9 touchdowns on 103 targets. That's pretty good. He's going to be 120 targets if he's healthy. That's a play. If Will Fuller gets 120 targets, he's worth taking to the sixth round, isn't he? Yes.
Starting point is 00:16:27 Yeah. Heath? Yes. Oh, yeah, for sure. All right, let's move on, guys. Top 10 at each position. I thought we'd go through this quickly and then talk about some of the
Starting point is 00:16:36 kind of interesting points per game statistics. Let's start with, you know what? I'm going to get half PPR queued up for the other positions, but we'll start with quarterback, and if anything stands out with the top 10. Top 10 quarterbacks, points per game. Alright. Lamar Jackson won. Matthew Stafford
Starting point is 00:16:54 and Drew Brees are two. Now tell me if you buy this. Drew Brees is really ahead of Matthew Stafford, because Brees had that one game against the Rams where I think he threw five passes, something like that, and that counts. So Breeze, I'm going to give Breeze number two. We cool with that? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:17:09 Alright, yeah. You're still giving Stafford a top three spot, which is a pretty big deal. He's three. Well, no, I don't think that is fair because Ryan Tannehill, I believe we're counting like two or three games where he came in in relief of Marcus Moriota.
Starting point is 00:17:27 All right, I can try to do the math there. Tannehill's in the top 10. Jackson? Well, you're still giving Stafford a top five spot, and that's pretty good. Yes, I would do that. Breeze, Stafford, Prescott, Watson, Wilson, Mahomes, Winston, Tannehill.
Starting point is 00:17:41 I'm not even counting. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten. Jeff Driscoll's 10. So after that, Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan would be 10. That's how good that offense is. Jeff Driscoll and Wes Hills screw up the points per game so much. It's so annoying.
Starting point is 00:17:57 Anything stand out there? Jackson, Stafford, Jackson Breeze, Stafford, Prescott, Watson, Wilson, Mahomes, Winston, Tannehill, Ryan. Stafford, Jackson, Breeze, Stafford, Prescott, Watson, Wilson, Mahomes, Winston, Tannehill, Ryan. Stafford does because his, and we've talked about this, but his average depth of target was a couple yards deeper than it had been for several years. It was over 10 yards per pass attempt,
Starting point is 00:18:16 much more vertical, much more downfield passing. It hadn't been higher than eight since, I believe it's 2013 or 2014, basically since the tail end of Calvin Johnson's career as his top targets in the interim years were you know Golden Tate and Phil Riddick they're underneath guys so new new coordinator Daryl Bevel um Tate and Riddick had moved along going into last year in in the in the like 18 months prior one was traded mid-season I believe and then Riddick was the offseason after. Then Stafford, now with Galladay and Jones, has a completely different passing
Starting point is 00:18:47 profile, throwing way more vertically and racks up a lot more numbers. Now his efficiency has got to regress a little bit, but I think he's a really interesting late-round guy. What is Mahomes' points per game if you take out the Denver game? I think I heard. That's a good one, too.
Starting point is 00:19:03 He only played a quarter in that game. Oh, you didn't answer that one? Well, no. I didn't do that for every... Come on. Stop. Please don't do that to me. Zaffer's going to wind up QB8 by the time we're done with this. How many games did Mahomes play?
Starting point is 00:19:21 He missed two, but he only played a quarter in the Denver game. Yes. I divided by 13. Ryan Tannehill was at he missed two, but he only played a quarter in the Denver game. Yes, divided by 13. Ryan Tannehill was at 26.2 fantasy points per game as a starter. And Mahomes was at 25.3 without the Denver game. 26.2 would actually have made him number two. And then he averaged over 300 yards and threw 10 touchdowns in three playoff games.
Starting point is 00:19:45 So that was cool, too. Mahomes, not Tannehill. Mahomes' first three games before the ankle injury, he was on pace for a better season than he had in 2018. Yeah. Okay. So the thing that stands out, I think, is that the number two, three, and four quarterback on a per-game basis last year, no one's drafting in the top eight at that position. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:20:09 And that would be Tannehill, Brees, and Stafford? Yeah. Okay. That does certainly... Obviously, Brees is the one that's going to go first there. So he'll be close to top eight, right? What is he going to be? Nine or 10?
Starting point is 00:20:23 All right, cool. Let's go running backs here. Take a look at a half PPR league and running backs in 2019. Points per game. McCaffrey one. This actually has Barkley two. Zeke three. Dalvin Cook four.
Starting point is 00:20:39 Derrick Henry five. Kamara six. Mixon seven. Miles Sanders 8 Kenyon Drake 9 Aaron Jones 10 that is interesting I had looked at the league
Starting point is 00:20:54 we actually talked about this last week Derek Henry was better than Dalvin Cook and Sanders that has to be it's wrong it was still showing projections it was showing projections. I clicked the right thing. Okay, here we go.
Starting point is 00:21:08 McCaffrey. Not my fault. I clicked the right thing. I did, I swear. McCaffrey, Henry, Cook, Jones, Zeke. Okay? McCaffrey, Henry, Cook, Jones, Zeke. Barkley, Eckler, Ingram, Wes Hills,
Starting point is 00:21:26 Nick Chubb, and then Alvin Cabrera is actually tied with Chubb for 10th. You're doing non-PPR. Should also be clarified. Half PPR. Henry was second in half PPR. No, you go. You want the list again? Which list?
Starting point is 00:21:42 Here we go. Top 10, half PPR, points per game, McCaffrey, Henry we go. Top 10, half PPR, points per game. McCaffrey, Henry, Cook, Aaron Jones, Zeke, Barkley, Eckler, Ingram, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara. I think that shows you the ceiling for Kamara. What do you mean? Because he was so bad and he was still 10th? We've talked a little bit about Henry.
Starting point is 00:21:59 I think it's notable that he was very, very close to Cook and not way ahead of Jones jones or zeke or barkley i mean yes he was rb2 but i still question his upside with the lack of receiving uh he was only about a point in half ppr only about a point higher than rb5 at rb2 and he gets drafted what like rb6 or rb7 right now after that monster season i feel like that's closer to his ceiling trying to repeat what he did last year. He was nowhere close to McCaffrey.
Starting point is 00:22:28 I would argue that every running back that's drafted in the top six is being drafted closer to their ceiling. Sure. Wide receivers, Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans. How about that?
Starting point is 00:22:40 Two bucks at two and three overall Julio Jones, Deandre Hopkins, Devontae Adams, Cooper Cup, Kenny Galladay, Tyree Kill, and Devontae Parker. Again, it's Thomas, Godwin, Evans, Julio, and Hopkins. A little surprised to see Julio and Hopkins at four and five in what was a down year for them. Devontae Adams, Cooper Cup, Kenny Gallad was a down year for them. Devontae Adams, Cooper Cup, Kenny Galladay, Tyree
Starting point is 00:23:08 Kill, and Devontae Parker. It was a down year for wide receivers. People don't remember how good Cooper Cup was in the first half. I don't remember it. I don't know if I'd talk about it enough. He was phenomenal. He finished top 10 for the full season because of it, even though late in the year he wasn't even necessarily playing a ton.
Starting point is 00:23:24 Cup in the first half and Woods in the second half. Totally. Cup, first eight games, top three receiver, 792 yards, five touchdowns on 87 targets. He had the second most targets in the NFL, the second most receiving yards among wide
Starting point is 00:23:40 receivers. Adam, do me a favor. Azerstat, Devontae Adams, take out the first three games. Why? He played those games. I know, but things really changed for him from week four on. I think I have those already in my notes. You know me. Because he had double-digit targets
Starting point is 00:23:56 in all but one game coming back from the injury. How about Michael Gallup at wide receiver 15? I know he only went to 10, but I'm looking at it. He's at wide receiver 15 in points per game we've talked about how good he was when he played man he doesn't go anywhere close to that he's another guy like i think you know we keep talking about the veteran running backs him portland sutton you know these guys that we think are going to be impacted by the rookie wide receivers these guys guys are locked in with their quarterbacks, you know,
Starting point is 00:24:26 and I think you have to take that into like, I moved Gallup up, you know, I had them probably a little bit lower than I should have, but I moved them up about 10 spots after the preseason games were ruled out. Tyreek Hill. Cause he had two games where he basically did nothing. Yeah. 184. I mean, you got to Azerstad all these guys out.
Starting point is 00:24:46 Yeah, no, look, this was not the point of this exercise. Devante Adams is kind of interesting, what happened when he came back. I had those numbers, Heath, before. 15.6 per game and a half PPR for Tyreek Hill. Which should be right on line with 2018 for him. 15.6 would
Starting point is 00:25:02 make him like A-fish with like Alan Robinson. I don't think that's right. He, maybe it's not. Okay. Please let me, let me,
Starting point is 00:25:12 let me get back to this. Devante Adams. Yes. In his last eight games after the injury came back from the injury. This was his pace. 116 catches, 10 touchdowns, 182 targets,
Starting point is 00:25:30 but only 1,238 yards. Only 10.7 yards per catch, only 6.8 yards per target. It's very interesting. Now, he crushed it in two playoff games. He had over 130 yards in both games, 11 targets in both games. But do we make anything of that? I mean, 116 catches, but only 1,238 yards for Devontae Adams. That was his pace anyway in those last eight games. It was just noise.
Starting point is 00:25:56 I mean, if you look at the last three, there were three games in a row over 90 receiving yards. Yeah, I mean, he's got enough volume that it probably doesn't matter. But that was kind of my argument last year was that if he didn't get the 10 targets per game um he's a seven and a half yards per target for his career that's average slightly above average um he was 7.9 last year which actually slightly above his career rate Like he needs a ton of targets to have good yardage. I'm just going to read the top 10 at tight end. Then we're going to move to the interesting stuff.
Starting point is 00:26:30 Kittle, Kelsey, almost tied. Who Hooper, Andrews, Ertz, Waller, Ingram,
Starting point is 00:26:38 Cook, Disley, Disley, and Hunter Henry. All right, let's talk about this. Three rookie quarterbacks last year, Daniel Jones,
Starting point is 00:26:48 Kyler Murray, and Gardner Minshew. They basically all average the same amount of fantasy points per game. Minshew was a little bit behind Jones and Murray who are practically tied, but Minshew had two games that he didn't start. Jones had one game that he didn't start. So if you take away those games, it was actually Jones one,
Starting point is 00:27:11 Murray two, Minshew three, but all of them pretty close. And if you just want to look at what their paces were, Jones had the best passing stats. Murray had the best rushing stats. Minshew was right in the middle there. Murray and Minshew had very similar passing stats. Jones had the most turnovers. Minshew also had a bit of a fumble problem, which I didn't realize. He was on pace for 16 fumbles, nine lost in his starts. Murray lost two fumbles all year, and I think they were both in the last game of the season. But just in general, guys,
Starting point is 00:27:37 the fact that those three quarterbacks were so close in fantasy points per game, Jamie, what do you make of that with Minshew, Murray, and Jones? I mean, look, Minshew got, excuse me, Murray got such a big addition this offseason that the hope is he takes a significant leap forward. But you know what you're kind of buying into with him because he's being drafted as a top six quarterback.
Starting point is 00:28:00 Whether he's three or six, he's going in that range and his ADP is in the fourth round on CBS. The other two guys are lottery ticket quarterbacks to tie in our previous conversation, um, or earlier conversation, excuse me. Um, Jones showed you what his upside could be with those four games over 30 fantasy points. You know, that he has a chance to run a little bit. Both these guys do. Minshew was actually the number six quarterback in rushing yards last year with the games that he played. Jones would have been the number six quarterback on a 16 game basis. So they both have the chance. I think if they can run a little bit more, they were the pace for Jones and what Minshew did shy of 400 yards rushing. If they can get to that 500 yard threshold, that would be awesome. So the receiving core for the Giants is potentially great.
Starting point is 00:28:48 If everybody's healthy, offensive line could be an issue now. But, you know, if you're going to be in the camp of weight on quarterback, which I think as a whole, we will tell you that you could take both those guys, Jones and Minshew, and know that you're getting what was a floor last year of around 20 fantasy points with the ceiling to potentially be a lot better so I like Jones better than Minshew but I can certainly see the upside in both and all I also kind of want to throw out that both those guys didn't play a full season we are using smaller samples and Murray did and and while that's not you know the biggest deal in the world, for them, the hope, I think, is you see them maintain the pace that they showed in kind of a small sample over a 16-game season. They'd be low-end QB once.
Starting point is 00:29:34 Murray was last year in both scoring systems for the full season stats, not for points per game. Yeah, not per game, right. But the note on Murray, that is basically his floor as I see it. I mean, he had 3,700 passing yards. I don't know that he'll get much fewer than that. We expect Arizona to run more plays because their pace, all those things. He also only had 20 passing TDs because in five of his first eight career games, which were also the first eight career games of head coach Cliff Kingsbury's NFL career,
Starting point is 00:30:00 he threw zero touchdown passes in five of those eight games. That's very rare, frankly. He had a 2.4% pass TD rate in that first half, 5.2% in the second half, more than double. I'm not saying he's going to be 5.2% forever, but we did see in the second half of the season, they figured some things out. And I would expect his full season pass TD percent of 3.7% from last year to rise a little bit. Maybe not all the way up to 5.2% like the second half number,
Starting point is 00:30:25 but to be better, I would expect him to throw more than 20 TDs and throw more passes and more yards. And he has Hopkins, and that rushing gives him that back-end QB1 floor already last year. He showed it with bad passing numbers. Yeah, I think this illustrates we're drafting Kyler Murray to take a massive, massive leap, and we're drafting Minshew and Daniel Jones to be worse than they were last year.
Starting point is 00:30:48 Like based on ADP, that's what the ADP would tell you is we think Kyler Murray. I think I just made a really good case that we're not drafting Kyler Murray to take a massive leap. I think he's the number three or four quarterback in ADP, number three or four. And like that's a massive leap. He's the seventh quarterback. Seventh on CBS. Okay. number three or four and like that's a massive league yes he's the seventh quarterback which seventh on cb okay because josh allen's but but even at three it's the same point you made with the running backs you're drafting him near the upside regardless the point i'm making is he was qb8 i think in full season last year in in four points per passing touchdown and then qb10
Starting point is 00:31:19 in six points and that was with completely unsustainable passing numbers right like the volume should go up the the volume should go up and the efficiency should go up if you really look at his passing so what's his floor is his floor really that low because if he's going qb3 and four point per passing td leagues like the nfc where he is and he was qb8 in that scoring system last year and that's you know basically his floor is i'm like how much of a leap are we really saying yes to take? Well, do you better than about 100 fantasy points? We're prepping you better than Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson.
Starting point is 00:31:59 Just by comparison, again, this is CBS ADP, so take that for what it's worth. A lot of our drafts have not happened yet. But Kyler Murray is going as the seventh quarterback off the board at 47.1. Gardner Minshew is going as the 29th quarterback off the board at 168.6. Well, it's too low for Minshew, 29th. That's wild. But again, he's not going to rise that much. I mean, he may get to QB 20.
Starting point is 00:32:23 Oh, yeah, he's 25 or worse basically everywhere. Oh, he's yeah. He's 25 or worse, basically everywhere. So I don't know. So he'll change a little bit. Yeah. He's a great 20th quarterback. Maybe. Okay.
Starting point is 00:32:32 But do we have a, we, do we have a problem with people drafting Kyler Murray to reach his ceiling? You know, six, six or seventh? No.
Starting point is 00:32:41 What about third or fourth? I don't see an argument to draft him over Dak. So on our side, again, Dak is the third quarterback. And he is going... His ADP is like 26th, but he's essentially the 23rd player being drafted. So he's being selected at the end of round two.
Starting point is 00:32:58 We can't really go by this, can we? Well, I mean, it's the site we work for. Yeah, but we know what it is. It's too early in the process. It's all within a relative range of every other site when you talk about ADP. Some of the guys are skewed a little bit, but it's within the same range. So like on NFPC,
Starting point is 00:33:16 Kyler's going third, but Watson's going sixth, and they're all 13 picks apart from 53 to 66. That's the other kind of... Right. This is a 20 draft difference. 20 draft spot difference. Yeah. I'm assuming there's some auto
Starting point is 00:33:32 picks in there and some projections that are... Yeah, like I said, our ADP will change, but it's not so skewed from other ADPs. The point I was trying to make and I kind of cut Jamie off, sorry, but with the fact that QB3 through QB6,
Starting point is 00:33:48 they're going close in a lot of places, except for Jamie just referenced on CBS, Dex going really high and Murray's going a lot later. But when they do go similarly, it doesn't matter that Kyler Murray's QB3. He's not being drafted right behind Patrick Mahomes in the second round, right? Like he's being drafted in a big group with qb3 through qb6 and that's what i'm saying like i do think the floor to ceiling range matters i don't think we're drafting him at a place where
Starting point is 00:34:15 um we're projecting him to be some kind of massive superstar there is a ton of upside here there is a ton of passing upside as well as the rushing upside. There is the shades of Lamar Jackson. He's way more Lamar Jackson than Baker Mayfield, which people are comparing him to based on ADP, the second year guy that we're all lofting up too high, but his rushing gives him a floor and a ceiling combination that Baker didn't have last year. And he already showed that last year. He showed that floor last year. And I don't think we're drafting him just for ceiling. His floor is high enough that he belongs in this group. Okay, let's go to running backs.
Starting point is 00:34:50 How about this? In PPR, James Conner averaged more fantasy points per game than Joe Mixon, and that was with Conner leaving two games very early with injury and having basically no stats in those games, and yet he still outscored Joe Mixon, James Conner did, in PPR. In half PPR, they're almost tied. In non-PPR, Joe Mixon was better than Conner on a per-game basis. I don't know about if you take out those two games, but I thought that was really interesting.
Starting point is 00:35:16 And it's the catches because his 16-game pace, if you take out the two games where he played less than 20% of the snaps, was 66 catches, 490 yards, six touchdowns for Connor and Mixon hasn't come anywhere close to that. So Heath, what do you make of that? James Connor better per game than Joe Mixon last year in PPR and tied in half PPR.
Starting point is 00:35:37 I am the wrong guy to ask because I, I, I have, I don't have Joe Mixon as a first-round pick, and I think that there's just some hope, based on Joe Mixon's skill level, that the Bengals will use him in a way that they haven't used him yet in his career.
Starting point is 00:35:54 Well, I mean, it's one of the late games they used him that way. Well, they didn't throw to him that way. He just had really good rushing efficiency. Well, yeah, he had the most carries in the NFL, too, in that stretch. Well, I mean, also, you know, Adam, if you're going to take out some games, Mixon left week one with an ankle injury and wasn't healthy week two oh he okay you're right he wasn't healthy play and that was the thing he played a lot of the first half with an ankle injury but in ppr the catch difference for mixon and connor is fairly
Starting point is 00:36:22 significant you're i probably should have taken out week one for Mixon. But I mean, look, I'm a Joe Mixon fan. I don't know where Ben comes out on this. I know you kind of have gone back and forth with the holdout news earlier. I don't know if we've talked about it since then, how you feel about Mixon. So jump in at any point. But I'm looking at him as the same type of player with a higher receiving potential, like a Derek Henry, like a Nick Chubb, like a Josh Jacobs, you know, guys that are going to be high volume rushers and maybe take a step forward in their passing game numbers, you know, so Mixon was,
Starting point is 00:36:56 you know, basically in the final eight games around three catches a game. He had a couple of four catch games. He had a couple of no catch games, you know, so he's, he's going to not necessarily take that huge leap. I think we kind of look at that 50 number as something that if a guy can get to 50 or more, like Zeke has done the last two years, if they're able to be an elite-level rusher, they can be a first-round pick. So I don't think, and again, as a mixing guy, I'm not going to say he's a better pass catcher than James Conner.
Starting point is 00:37:20 That's stupid. But factoring in health and factoring in what Mixon should be able to do as a rusher with less competition. I mean, the Steelers, the fact that they brought in Wendell Smallwood could be a special teams move, could be a concern about, you know, is Conner at some point going to opt out because he's a cancer survivor? You know, he says he's not, but you never know. I just don't know. But they've added competition to that backfield each of the last two years. I feel more comfortable with Mixon, but this isn't an anti-Connor thing.
Starting point is 00:37:46 I think Conor as a pass catcher could be great. Listen, I've got to clarify here. I'm not saying, when I give that first stat, I'm not saying Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray are the same. And I'm not saying that James Conner and Joe Mixon are the same. I understand why people are taking Mixon. I just think that that stat is very interesting, that maybe there is some value that we're not seeing. It's a way to evaluate these players and what they did in PPR last year.
Starting point is 00:38:07 And I think it's worth saying this wasn't a one-year thing with Conor and Mixon. The year before, Conor scored 40 more fantasy points and played one less game. And Conor was being drafted ahead of Mixon last year, too. Yeah, it's interesting. If Conor gets that rollback and he's a feature back, and the Steelers, we talk about 50-catch running backs.
Starting point is 00:38:23 Steelers almost always have a 50-catch running back. Sometimes they have like an 80-catch running back with Le'Veon Bell. You know, I just thought this one was worth bringing up. I'll give you the last word, Ben, on Conor and Mixon. Oh, I agree with Jamie that the Steelers bringing in more competition matters.
Starting point is 00:38:41 I mean, when Conor was really great in 2018, Jalen Samuels was a rookie and Benny Snell and Anthony McFarlane weren't on the, on the roster yet. So they have a completely different running back room than 2018. And I agree with Heath on, on Mixon where it is hard for me as well to project this big receiving role when he essentially never played more than 75% of the snaps, which is kind of required for a three down first round running back. He did it, I think twice all season. They, even when he was getting those tons of,
Starting point is 00:39:11 of rush attempts late in the season, wasn't, wasn't playing enough on passing downs for me to, to really like him in the first round. He's a tough one. He's a tricky one. One thing I will note on him though, is Zach Taylor gave him 25 carries inside the 10 last year. He only scored five touchdowns there. He's yet had a 10 TD season but Taylor showed that he liked to use mix in there so if the offense improves um you know he could have a lot a lot more touchdowns this year than we saw the last couple years only 16 catches in those last eight games when he was
Starting point is 00:39:41 the number four running back in fantasy he had had 177 carries, but only 16 catches. Next running back stat, Marlon Mack. Let's take a look at Marlon Mack and maybe see how it relates to Jonathan Taylor. Where has he finished per game each of the last two seasons? In 2018, it was a really good year for him. He was 12th in non-PPR and 19th in PPR. Marlon Mack last year was 14th in non PPR and 23rd in PPR. And he was on pace for 260 carries in 2018 and 282 carries in 2019. So talking about a guy who's getting 16, 17 carries per game, and he can't crack the top 15 in PPR, didn't crack the top 10 in non-PPR. This guy just very rarely catches the ball. Jamie, what does this stat mean for you
Starting point is 00:40:31 with Marlon Mack? And Jonathan Taylor, how it relates. I mean, Ben is probably the better person to ask about this because of the superior athlete that Taylor should be compared to Marlon Mack and what he should be able to do with those touches. I don't think that Taylor is going to come in and all of a sudden become a significant factor in the passing game.
Starting point is 00:40:52 It just doesn't make sense with what they have on their roster and how he's performed as a collegiate player. I mean, he, he's, he's a better receiver than people give him credit for that goes without saying, but are they going to force him into that role with an aging quarterback, with a pass catcher and Naheem Hines with a gadget player in Paris Campbell that can line up in the backfield. And Marlon Mack was used a little bit more as a receiver option as a rookie than he was his last two years. So I think we could see, you know,
Starting point is 00:41:25 Taylor take advantage of what this offensive line is and what those rushing opportunities should be to be a better player. I know that's what Ben is hoping for, but you know, Mac is it, it, it's funny. Cause like, I, I hate, you know, pooping on Mac because I think he's been a good fantasy option for us. He's just not a guy that's going to go to that next level, you know? So yeah, that's where I think Taylor comes in. It's the only thing I would say in defense of him is that it is interesting
Starting point is 00:41:53 that he's been a top 25, even PPR back playing 45% of the snaps most weeks. Like he's not a guy that has played. It seems like he might be able to be a top 30 guy if he plays 45% of the snaps still and he's being drafted as a number 40 running back. You know, I think of Marlon Mack all the time.
Starting point is 00:42:15 Joseph Adai was a good running back. I don't think he was ever great. And I feel like Marlon Mack's kind of the same type of player. They're different guys, but in terms of perception, you would always draft Joseph Adai going, well, he's payton man he's running back and the colts offense is really good marlon mack was andrew lux running back you know he's putting up good numbers especially you know last year the offensive line whatever blah blah blah but i just feel like if
Starting point is 00:42:36 if you get a player of taylor's caliber and what he can do in this scenario you're going to be a lot happier if those numbers go to what they potentially could be. And I'll say you guys have all heard my thoughts on Taylor, but to his point about Mac, if I wasn't drafting so much Taylor, yeah, I'm kind of fond of him.
Starting point is 00:42:53 If I wasn't drafting so much Taylor, I would probably be drafting more Mac. He's weirdly underpriced. And, and part of my whole take on Taylor is I like the setup for this back field. I like the fact that their offensive line is so good. I like the fact that their schedule in the first half is so soft.
Starting point is 00:43:09 Yeah. And I think there's going to be enough running back touches for Taylor to get some, but I still think there's going to be plenty for Mac to get some. So I agree with Heath. He could very easily beat his ADP. I think when you look at the stats. If there was no Taylor, I don't know where you guys have Mac. He'd be top 15 easy for me.
Starting point is 00:43:24 He'd be way up there, yeah. Not in PPR, though. Maybe not quite in PPR. He'd be close. Well, yeah, I just said, though. He hasn't been that on a per-game basis. He's in the last two years. But this is my point.
Starting point is 00:43:35 If I told you I'm giving you a running back that in two seasons is going to average 4.7 and 4.4 yards per carry and get like 16.5 and 17.4 yards per carry and get like 16 and a half and 17 and a half carries per game both years and he's still not going to be a top 15 ppr running back that tells you just how valuable catches are for running backs not just the catches but all the yards and all the production that comes with it i thought that i thought that was pretty interesting and while we're on mac i want to i want to give one stat on mac that i think is a really interesting one he played i gotta pull it up really quick but he played i believe it's uh 60 plus percent of the snaps he played 14 games last year and in the first seven
Starting point is 00:44:14 i think he played at 60 plus percent of the snaps in all of them and then in the last seven i think he only did it one time i'm just going to confirm that real quick and people say that's because he had nagging injuries he actually broke his hand in the second half He did not have a nagging injury in the second half. His ankle injury was in the first half when they were using him heavily. And that's the one game he didn't hit 60% of the snaps in the first half. He left with an ankle injury and he was on the injury report the next week with an ankle injury. Second half, he broke his hand.
Starting point is 00:44:38 Presumably when he came back, he was healed up from a broken hand. It wasn't a nagging injury. But yeah, the stats are in seven games in the first half, over 60% of snaps six times. And then in the second half, he didn't hit 60% once. So I kind of feel like Indianapolis already kind of made their decision last year
Starting point is 00:44:53 that they didn't want. They tried the three down or full workload more on the Mac and they didn't want to do that. All right, guys. Adam, I got to go do a hit for HQ on the Jaguars. Keith, what would you like me to say about Gardner Minshew?
Starting point is 00:45:09 Basically, Kyler Murray just 10 rounds later. Kyler Murray. There we go. We've learned so much today. All right, everybody. We're going to take a quick break here on Fantasy Football today. When we come back, wide receiver and tight end stats, plus your Apple Podcast questions and your emails at fantasyfootball cbsi.com we'll be right back whether in the game or in life the right coverage can make
Starting point is 00:45:30 all the difference securing canada gives you that coverage for more than 65 years securing canada has been helping canadians build secure tomorrows their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. Miller Lite, the light beer brewed for people who love the taste of beer and the perfect pairing for your game time. When Miller Lite set out to brew a light beer, they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can. They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer.
Starting point is 00:46:18 Your game time tastes like Miller time. Learn more at MillerLite.ca. Must be legal drinking age. Julian Edelman was ninth in points per game last year in PPR. He was 19th in non-PPR. The highest that Dave, Jamie, or Heath have him in the rankings in PPR is 28th. Ben, where do you have Julian Edelman in the rankings? 39th.
Starting point is 00:46:41 Wow. Wow. Ninth last year, guys. And Heath, you're the high guy. So 19th in non-PPR, ninth in PPR. I'll tell you where he was in half PPR, but are we too low on Edelman? I should tell you where I have him in projections, though,
Starting point is 00:46:54 because it's a lot higher than that. But sorry. Let Heath comment. Yeah. I think we are, too. I think we are, especially with half of the Patriots' defense choosing not to play this year.
Starting point is 00:47:06 Now, I do think that could hurt their play volume. One of the reasons they've been able to run a lot of plays is because their defense has been really good and that helps. But I don't I kind of went through a stage this summer where I thought Bill Belichick is just going to run the ball 60 percent of the time and play good defense. And that's enough to win the AFC East. And now I don't really think that probably is with his defensive situation. And Nikhil Harry certainly has upside and talent, but the expectation should probably be that Julian Edelman is going to leave the team in targets. And so, yeah, I think we're probably too low on Julian Edelmanman i agree with
Starting point is 00:47:46 pretty much all that and he comes out 29th in my projections and i'm a little bit low on him in projections but definitely have him leading the team as he said and and i agree with his comments on the defense i was when i did this projection i had them a little bit more run heavy for those same reasons and now probably have to reconsider that because they've lost some key pieces on D. The problem for me with Edelman is he's 34 years old. He played 16 games last year, and that was great. That was the first time since 2016, and that was the first time since 2013. He missed all of the 2017 season. He's missed huge parts of other seasons.
Starting point is 00:48:19 And again, he's 34 now. And then also we know that he's missing Tom Brady, and so much of his production came with that preternatural connection with the option routes and everything else. That's going to take a little bit of getting used to with Cam Newton. I still agree with everything he said about the targets and everything. I just don't take him. I haven't ranked so low because I don't take him because of his age and his injury history.
Starting point is 00:48:38 Just at this point, like I would rather invest in a Will Fuller at the exact same. I have Fuller definitely ranked higher because he's a 26 year old who, yes, hasn't shown us it yet. But there's guys that have struggled with injuries early in their careers. Fuller reminds me so much of Keenan Allen. It's different than Julian Edelman, who's never been able to play back to back 16 game seasons in his entire career. To be clear, I might be remembering this wrong. 2018, he was suspended for four games, right? So he has not missed a game due to injury since 2015.
Starting point is 00:49:08 Okay. I forgot about that. He tore his ACL, didn't he? Yeah, he missed all of 2017. He missed the full season. I'm sorry. There's not a whole season that isn't in the line. Right.
Starting point is 00:49:17 He has missed almost as many games as Will Fuller last year. Yeah. You know, the thing with Edelman is when I look at him where he is in the rankings, it's like you've got a lot of really high upside players that people are excited about, like McLaurin and A.J. Brown and A.J. Green and D.J. Chark and D.K. Metcalf and all that.
Starting point is 00:49:36 It's hard, I think, for fantasy managers to draft Edelman over them, but you know what? He was number nine in points per game. Is he really going to be outside the top 30 this year? No. We'll see. We're too late.
Starting point is 00:49:48 I will be moving him up a little bit more in PPR rankings. And certainly in points per game, he won't be outside the top 30. I'm probably way too long on him too. And I was raising my hand when you were saying that about those upside receivers. All right, then let's go to Diggs and Brown. Let's go to the Bills. Stephon Diggs and John Brown averaged the same amount of fantasy points last year in non PPR Brown, a little bit better than Diggs and PPR. Yeah. So what do you make of that? Are you just trolling bin? Or is this just like a little cookie you're throwing me? I have no issue with this whatsoever. Diggs was clearly
Starting point is 00:50:26 pigeonholed last year. He led his team in targets by like 20. They just didn't throw at all. The Bills will throw a little bit more, but not a ton more. But he is the far superior receiver to John Brown. He can do it at all depths. John Brown's a deep threat. John Brown was very good last year, should have been even better, but Josh Allen missed him on some deep shots. But Diggs is going to be the number one. They didn't trade a first and three other draft picks to make Diggs an even keel with a deep threat that weighs like 175 pounds. So we think that Diggs is going to go back to his pre-2019 role, right? No, I think it's going to be a combination of both because they pigeonholed him in 2018 too. The Vikings misused Stefan Diggs is my take.
Starting point is 00:51:07 And the Bills didn't trade what they traded for him to misuse him. That's the other part of my take. It should be noted they scored the same amount of fantasy points in non-PPR and Brown had 21 more targets than Stefan Diggs. I think follow-up question would be... I would say
Starting point is 00:51:22 the earning targets the skill. Well, but Diggs led his team. They both led their team in targets. follow-up question would be, I would say the earning targets, the skill does the, well, but Diggs led his team. They both led their team in targets. Yeah. So the question, the follow-up question is this,
Starting point is 00:51:32 do the, does Stefan Diggs have number one wide receiver upside when you consider not a lot of passing yards in this offense. And John Brown is just probably better than people give him credit for, you know? So that's the follow-up question. Does John Brown's presence limit Stephon Diggs' upside? Josh Allen's presence limits Stephon Diggs' upside. I agree with that. Oh, Jamie's back. I don't know what range we want to go
Starting point is 00:52:04 to to discuss upside. If we're talking about bins and this is not a shot, but you brought it up. So I said bins 1% outcomes thing. Then of course he has top 12 upside, but I don't think like reasonable upside. I don't think digs has top 12. I haven't projected in the top 12.
Starting point is 00:52:18 So I completely disagree with that. How many targets do you think digs is going to get? I don't have them projected in the top 12. That was a lie. I did at one point, but I moved him down a little bit obviously he was 130 i'm at 130 targets wow and far far lower efficiency than than typical for him because of josh allen um but yeah i mean i think it's as simple as what what role do you think he's going to play i think he's going to come in and take a lot of cole beasley's short and intermediate targets beasley had over 100 targets last year for the first time in his career he's great he's going to come in and take a lot of Cole Beasley's short and intermediate targets. Beasley had over a hundred targets last year for the first time in his
Starting point is 00:52:46 career. He's great. He's fine, but he's a 30 plus year old slot receiver. Who's never done when he did last year. And then I think he's going to also take plenty of the downfield shots and he was the most efficient downfield receiver in the NFL last year. He was 40 more targets in this offense than he had a year ago.
Starting point is 00:53:01 Yeah. Because I think the team's going to throw more too, but yeah, absolutely. I just saw it as like, well, John Brown's kind of earned a year ago. Yeah, because I think the team's going to throw more too, but yeah, absolutely. I just saw it as like, well, John Brown's kind of earned a big role. So I don't, you know, how many targets do you have John Brown getting?
Starting point is 00:53:12 We'll just wrap here. You have 134 digs. What is it? 102. All right. He had 115 last year. All right, Jamie, he's our last wide receiver stat. Sterling Shepard in PPR.
Starting point is 00:53:23 Sterling Shepard averaged more points per game than Cortland Sutton. Non-PPR, it was flipped. Sutton was better. But Shepard was actually on pace for 91 catches. Yeah, how do you feel about that? Shepard better per game than Cortland Sutton in PPR. I love Sterling Shepard this year. He averaged, I think it was like 14 PPR points per game
Starting point is 00:53:42 in the starts that he made with Daniel Jones. I think it was seven games that those two guys played together. In six of them, he had nine or more targets. We talked about this again on HQ. One of the guys Dave is targeting is Darius Slayton, and he's going five spots ahead of Shepard, about five wide receiver spots ahead of him, 10 spots overall on CBS Sports ADP. I almost think that Shepard is is the better play. He's for me, he's a better player in PPR. You know, I could see if you're
Starting point is 00:54:09 trying to hit a home run with Slayton to me, he's he's a lottery ticket type of receiver more so than Will Fuller is. But Shepard is he's the 49th receiver off the board on our site. That's just amazing. You know, so I think Shepard is look, the injuries are a problem. You know, so I, I think Shepard is look, the injuries are a problem. You know, he's banged up last year. Again, you know, the, the same argument you can make about Slayton. This was, you know, one thing he said in, in arguing Slayton's upside is that, you know, most of the numbers that he put up last year, he did without Shepard on the field,
Starting point is 00:54:40 Tate on the field at Ingram on the field and Barkley, when all those guys are together, it's hard I think for all these guys to stand out to maybe the level that they can, but you know, Shepard on the field, Tate on the field, Ingram on the field, and Barkley. When all those guys are together, it's hard, I think, for all these guys to stand out to maybe the level that they can. But, you know, Shepard, he doesn't have the same type of ceiling that Courtland Sutton has, but he's certainly the better value. Okay.
Starting point is 00:54:54 Tight end's kind of boring. Two tight end stats. George Kittle was number one in points per game. People should know that. Very, very similar to Kelsey, but he was better. Without touchdowns, too. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:55:07 Kyle Shanahan is bad for touchdowns. He has been. I don't think anyone's had more than five in three years in San Francisco receiving touchdowns. Jared Cook was fifth in non-PPR, tenth in PPR. I've got one for you. All right, cool.
Starting point is 00:55:24 Jason Witten averaged more fantasy points per game last year than Mike Gesicki okay now we're trolling I like Blake Jarwin so cool that was a Blake Jarwin the more I think about Blake Jarwin the more excited I am
Starting point is 00:55:40 yeah alright after podcast questions thanks so much for your reviews, everybody. Appreciate it. And your questions from Don Pablo.
Starting point is 00:55:49 Hey, Phil, Will, Jazz, and Carlton. Fresh Prince. 12 team non PPR, six point per passing touchdown.
Starting point is 00:55:58 Keep one. Josh Jacobs in the fourth. Remember, it's non PPR. Josh Jacobs in the fourth. Austin Eckler in the eighth. And Kyler Murray in the tenth. Remember, it's non-PPR. Josh Jacobs in the fourth, Austin Eckler in the eighth,
Starting point is 00:56:05 and Kyler Murray in the tenth. Keep one? Mm-hmm. I would keep Eckler. Either Eckler or Jacobs. I don't think you keep a QB in the tenth in this situation. I would keep Jacobs.
Starting point is 00:56:21 I think I might take Jacobs too. From Amarvi, is my superflex dynasty team win now or should i stock up on future picks if so who should i trade away he has daniel jones and tua he has ronald jones sony michelle and kenyan drake let's change the order of these right give me drake it is not win now. Cortland Sutton? No, it's definitely not. Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs, LaVisca Chenault, Hunter Henry, Chris Herning, Colcomatt?
Starting point is 00:56:51 No, it's not win now. Trade Kenyon Drake and Cortland Sutton and Hunter Henry and if somebody would give you something for him, Sonny Michel as well. Why Sutton? Why trade him? I don't think this is going to be a win next year team either once you trade those guys.
Starting point is 00:57:09 And I think by next year, Jerry, Judy might be the number one on the Broncos. I'm not sure Sutton's value will be higher than it is right now. Next email from Flo John. Standard 10 team league, keep three. Derrick Henry in the third. Tyreek Hill in the fifth. Eckler in the sixth. Ertz in the ninth
Starting point is 00:57:30 and Hunt in the tenth. Henry Hill-Eckler. Right? Henry in the third. Hill in the fifth. Eckler in the sixth. Not for me. Oh, it's standard? This is non-PPR. Okay.
Starting point is 00:57:46 I can understand Henry in the third then. For me, it would be Hill and Eckler for sure. I was thinking Ertz in the ninth is a pretty interesting one. I would probably go Henry, Hill, and Ertz. From Evan Phillips 36. Heath, I need to hear the story of you throwing out the first pitch at the Royals game. That happened? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:07 I worked for a company in Kansas City and we had a company event at the game. And so there's like 400 or 500 employees and I won a drawing to get to throw the first game out. But unfortunately, they had... I was like 22 years old when this happened. And
Starting point is 00:58:24 we had an enormous tent and free food and booze for two hours before the game. I got in trouble for bringing my drink onto the field at one point. But then I had a female employee who was the catcher, and she was very concerned that I was going to throw one of the dirt and hit her in the shin. And so we made an agreement. Okay. I'll, I'll throw it high. You just stand up. Cause I've seen him do that on the first pitch before the catcher kind of stands up just a little bit early and they catch it. So I actually threw it right where I was aiming and she completely froze,
Starting point is 00:59:04 did not even move her glove. Like, just out here like this, the ball goes over her head. The cameraman was behind her, and so I have the video of me throwing this ball and the cameraman at the last second ducking out of the way, and it went to the backstop.
Starting point is 00:59:18 Oh, we got to see the video. Goodbye. That's great. It's on VHS only, so one day. All right, we'll come over. I'll have you videotape it on your phone and tweet it out. Yeah, that works. I think I need to take it to a place
Starting point is 00:59:32 and have it converted because it's a pretty terrible... This is a 20-year-old VHS tape. It all sounds bogus to me, Heath. A lot of the people use it. You think I would make up a story that makes me sound that bad? It doesn't make you sound bad necessarily.
Starting point is 00:59:47 I think it's a funny story. All right. This is from M W Martin. You guys talk about the injury concerns for Dalvin cook. What about Camara's injury history? I don't think he has been able to put together a full 16 any year. I think that he sat out week 17 once guys. I don't know. Does Camara have an injury history? No, he had a high ankle sprain last year. I think that he sat out week 17 once, guys. I don't know.
Starting point is 01:00:06 Does Kamara have an injury history? No. He had a high ankle sprain last year. That's it. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know about this one. Sorry, M.W. Martin.
Starting point is 01:00:13 I wouldn't be concerned about it. Anybody concerned about it? No. All right. He only missed two games with a high ankle sprain. Played through it. Guy's tough. I actually am unconcerned about it.
Starting point is 01:00:22 From Chucky Buckle. I'm in a league where you pay real cash for each transaction after the draft. Most teams carry at least two at each position. With this format, would you be more likely to draft the early, more guaranteed quarterbacks and tight ends and less likely to stream? Certainly would be less likely to stream.
Starting point is 01:00:40 Yeah. Yeah. You take a move every week. Jamie and i played in a league like that a baseball league yes i uh with the same same person uh james questel our former fantasy football today producer when the show first started uh back in 2007 um so it's uh it's a football league that helped him with and the decisions are tough you tough, especially when you're getting to the point in the year where you've got to decide are you going all in or are you staying out to protect your finances. So it makes it challenging.
Starting point is 01:01:15 You see a lot of teams that will not make transactions early in the year just with the, hey, this guy might be good. It's got to be something that's pretty close to a short thing or you really need a player. That's going to do it for today's show. We've got Ross Tucker coming on tomorrow's show.
Starting point is 01:01:30 Very much looking forward to that. Thanks so much to all of you for listening. Hope this was a helpful show for you. And we got position previews coming up next
Starting point is 01:01:38 week. Can you believe it? Next week. For Jamie, for Heath, for Ben, for the other Ben, I'm Adam. We'll talk to you on Friday, everybody. Have a good one.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.