Fantasy Football Today - Who looks good? | Preseason Week 1 observations and LIVE TE Super League Dynasty Draft analysis

Episode Date: August 14, 2024

Heath Cummings is joined by Jacob Gibbs to talk about the shifting landscape of the league after preseason week 1 and then break down a TE Super League draft that both Heath and Jacob are in.  Intro (0:00) What IS upside? (1:45) Jahmyr Gibbs Injury (10:20) Is Bo Nix Good? (14:52) Preseason Player Usage (18:55) Preseason W1 Performers (21:22) Preseason w1 Duds (29:59) Super TE Fantasy League (34:40) To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings, joined by my good friend, Jacob Gibbs. It's always a lot of fun when Jacob Gibbs comes on to the Dynasty Show, and today will be no exception. Jacob, you get a different location. We're a couple of minutes behind. I appreciate you fighting through the internet problems to be here today. That is refreshing. That feels good. Me and Heath have now officially met in real life. And some were mistaken. I thought that I was his son. They saw a picture of us. Someone did say that. Correct. They saw a picture of us and Heath is like eight inches taller than me or something. But yeah, my Wi-Fi has been out for six days.

Shout out Google Fiber. Incredible work on there and still not up and running. So I'm at my friend's house. If you're watching on YouTube, you can see that I'm literally holding my mic in my hand. So we're going to try to make this as quick as we can because I'm not that strong. So yeah, Jacob's going to keep that mic as close to his mouth as he can because every time he moves it, it's like he went into a different room and is talking to us from there. But these are the links we go to, to bring you FFT Dynasty. And I've got three topics that I really, really, really want to get into today. So the main point of the show, if you will,

we will be talking about a tight end premium startup draft, not a mock, a live draft, maybe the slowest live draft I've ever been a part of, that we are currently in right now. We're six rounds deep, and that's going to be a lot of fun. Before that, I wanted to talk about some of Jacob's takeaways from preseason week one, what they mean for Dynasty. But before that, I'm kind of springing a conversation on Jacob because of discussion that's gone on on Twitter over the last couple of days over the last couple of years that I just think that would help if we could get

some clarification set some parameters for what we mean when we talk about upside it is it is a common amongst the smartest people on fantasy football Twitter. It is a common refrain that nothing really matters besides upside. And I've said this in one quarterback leagues for quarterbacks for a long time because replacement, it's so easy to find replacements. That's not what everyone's saying when they say nothing matters, but upside, they're basically saying that slightly above average players don't really help you. You need outliers. You need league winners. You need upside.

Jacob, I'm going to give you the most difficult question you've ever had on this show. How do we define what a player's upside is? Yeah, this is a nuanced conversation for sure. I think the first thing to bring up, and this is important because we are on a dynasty show here um but it is it's related to dynasty as well as redraft but typically when i hear that all that matters is upside i think that conversation is mostly about season-long managed leagues um where you can you brought up the quarterback position you're but you're able to work the waiver wire and you can do that to the other positions maybe not to the same extent because the relative differences

in depth and the number of starters you have at each position but with these managed leagues you the idea is you can take more swings on big upside players because you do have the availability to throughout the year make trades make free agent acquisitions, work the bottom of your bench and try to come up with more answers if your high upside, high risk shots don't work. So I would start there that it is important to differentiate between like what format we're talking about when it comes to upside. Very well said. And I think important. And also you didn't answer the question at all.

Jacob is also a politician and Joe asks another important question. Have you been quilting behind you on the bed? If you're watching on YouTube, you certainly should be. I want to. So that being said, cause it is, you're watching on youtube you certainly should be i i want to so that being said because it is you're right it's it's certainly more of a redraft conversation but it it does get talked about in terms of dynasty as well upside certainly doesn't certainly doesn't long-term upside is is upside strictly related to a player's situation their talent their opportunity what what are the the main factors for you and i say this as somebody and we both have gone through the projections process this year projecting kind of more of a median outcome like what what do we

think the median project projection for this player from where I stand a median projection seems a little more objective whereas a an upside discussion seems a little more subjective do you think that's accurate I do um but I think there can be some objectivity in creating a range of outcomes in your projections and that starts with um the the baseline team level stuff. Like what are we getting from Vegas? How many points is this team projected for over the course of the year? How many wins are they projected for?

And then historically, when you look at other teams that have been within that range, what type of top, like 90th percentile outcomes, what have those looked like? And so that for me i i've only recently in the last year or two started trying to truly build out um and test like the range of outcomes for each player and for each team and so i don't know how confident i feel in my process yet but i think i think it is attainable that that's something that we can do is like rather

than just being like this player is athletic this player you know this offense will score a lot of points there's generalizations that we can make that seem like they correlate to upside like a team creating a lot of offensive plays a team scoring a lot of offensive points a player being able to take on a large workload a large target share or just a player being an outlier type of talent like a Devon Achan or someone like that Ty Tyree kill. There's a lot of generalizations we can make, but I think, yeah, ultimately I would love and you would like to make it as objective as we can. And so I do think there is merit in the practice of like trying to actually

map out a range of outcomes. Could this team actually have 30 plus passing touchdowns. And if that's not the case, then, you know, maybe Malik neighbors doesn't have the type of ultimate upside that is available to a lot of other receivers and better offenses. Maybe the same could be said about Chris Alave or whatever. Like last year, I think we saw basically about the peak level of efficiency for the saints

offense in a lot of ways. You know, we've dug into that when we talk about projections. Can it get much better than that? You know, so, yeah, that's why I started with the – there's so many ways to take this conversation. That's why I started with it's relevant to the format that you're playing. And then beyond that, I think you do start at the team level, but there's also a lot of interesting, like player specific stuff that we could dig into as well.

And I think that's the part where like, I get lost. Cause I look back at last year and I, that outliers make all the difference argument is evident in last year's standings. Like it made a lot more difference. If you picked up Kyron Williams off the waiver wire, or if you happen to draft for himem Mostert, Devon Achan late, or if you were a Pukunukua guy like you were, then if you hit value in round five, six, and seven.

But what in the world do Kyron Williams, Raheem Mostert, Devon Achan, and Pukunukua have in common? Like they both, they play for the Dolphins and the Rams, like Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan offenses. Yeah. So I think there's two things that come to mind for me that they have in common. And one you hit on is good offenses. The second is ambiguity in their offense in terms of where the ball is going to go.

At the running back was in for Miami last year. We didn't really know. It felt like it was most certain Jeff Wilson, but then Wilson had the injury. And then with the Rams, that one was a little bit more unforeseen. It felt like it was Cam Akers, but at the same time, McVay had kind of given a signal for a while that he didn't necessarily want Cam Akers to be the guy. Cooper Cupp had the injury. So I think in both those situations, I think ambiguity with where the targets are going to go,

where the red zone work might go is definitely an important piece here when you're searching for upside. And then I'd say the two guys at tight end that were the second half of the season league winners were Trey McBride, who needed a major injury, and Evan Ingram, who had maybe been the most boring player in fantasy football for the last four seasons before Christian Kirk got hurt. Like a lot of those outlier performances do at least seem somewhat attached to who gets hurt. Now, who can take advantage if that happens, I think is a worthwhile discussion. And I think it's definitely something you should consider when you're looking at the end of your bench in dynasty. In a 14 team league, I was able to pick up zamir white like week nine or week 10 last year i don't want to have boring wide receivers on my bench particularly if i'm not competing

i want to have guys who might benefit if someone else gets hurt and that's a way that's upside that's not really even related to the talent of the player or the offense just the potential opportunity you know that's the upside yeah contingent you'll hear you'll hear that phrase used a lot and i do think that is important like the most recent example i've used to um to depict this is like consider jaylen waddle compared to garrett wilson and i'm not saying the waddle is necessarily a better pick but if tyree kill were to hurt, Waddle would take on such a larger role than he is currently projected for. Whereas Garrett Wilson, he's already at the top of his, I mean, we're projecting him for a 30% target share.

Could it really get any higher? Like what injury in his offense would like make Wilson's role elevate even further, I guess, Brees Hall. But really I don't think it would make that much of a difference. So contingency upside is important as well. And that's something to think about. And especially, especially with good offenses,

that's something to think about. I had another point I wanted to bring up, but I can't remember what it was. That's okay. We're going to get one more question before our first break. And it has to do with one part of what spurred this Jameer Gibbs, scary times on Twitter last night. Like we had ACL talk and then all of a sudden it's a hamstring and that's

maybe still not good since he had a soft tissue injury that kept him out for a month and a half this summer. And he had a hamstring injury that cost him two weeks last year. Are you doing anything differently at all in dynasty because of this Jameer Gibbs injury? Is it time to see if maybe we could sell David Montgomery on a high real quick because Gibbs will probably be fine? Are you downgrading Gibbs at all in your mind in terms of dynasty?

I'm glad you brought up Jameer Gibbs because it did make me remember what I wanted to bring up, my final point on the upside. But to answer your question, no, it doesn't really change anything. I think you could sell Montgomery, especially if Gibbs misses time. Montgomery comes out and scores a bunch in the first few weeks Montgomery is actually somebody I've been targeting a lot because he's really not that old and I think that the team really loves him he's probably going to be in that offense for a little bit I mean he just fits the identity of what Dan Kimmel wants to do and nobody wants him really for dynasty because for dynasty people he is old

he's dead like once you get that age you run it back um so the point the last point i wanted to bring up related to upside is specific to the running back position and that's why gibbs made me think of it and tyrone tracy my guy got hurt today makes me think of it as well and that's that um targets are crucial for running back upside specifically and so there are a lot of player specific things you can dig into is at each position athleticism and touchdowns at the tight end position are really important for upside targets have been correlated really strongly to the ultimate running back upside zamir white is somebody you brought up i have a hard time seeing zamir white finishing as like a top 10 or 12 running

back um and really what i'm looking for when i talk about like running back upside is like a top five, like 250, 300 plus PPR point type of guy. And I do a study on this every offseason and refresh the information. But it's your much, the target threshold that I found is 80. And that changes a little bit with 17 games. games but if you can get a running back to like 70 80 plus targets that's kind of necessary to get into that massive like 300 plus point upside range that's interesting because like if you look at three of the top four last year um and this was kind of one of the guys i was arguing on twitter with people about this morning it was jameer gibbs versus kyron williams and who has more upside well kyron was not he had 32 catches in 12 games probably a 60 target pace if i'm roughly guessing not looking at how many

targets he actually had but cleared jameer gibbs by five fantasy points per game last year and the only reason gibbs was that close was because he averaged 29 points per game in the two games, David Montgomery didn't play. But it does seem to be that because of that target volume, it's just, I think it's looked as, and you might, you can, like,

you can tell me whether you feel this way or not. What Kyron Williams did last year is not actually his reasonable upside. And Jameer Gibbs has higher upside than that. I do feel that way. I think that the Detroit offense is an absolute like fantasy print shop. They're going to create a ton of plays, a ton of targets and there's touchdown upside as well. It wouldn't surprise me if Gibbs has more touchdowns than Kyron,

which seems crazy with David Montgomery there. But I mean, yeah, Kyron had 15 touchdowns in 12 games last year and that just really, really inflates things. I think he did run a little bit hot there. But I mean, yeah, Kyron had 15 touchdowns in 12 games last year. And that just really, really inflates things. I think he did run a little bit hot there. But I mean, if Kyron's in that role again, where he's like 90% of the snaps, all the red zone work,

that's the type of profile, the Derrick Henry kind of guy who can get there even without the massive targets. And Kyron still saw four targets per game, which is nothing. But yeah, but it's mostly you need targets at the ready-to-win position. Occasionally you can get there just through massive touchdowns, like, you know, Ramos third last year, obviously.

Right, or insane efficiency like the guy who's right behind him, Devon Aitken. But let's take our first break. Let's jump into preseason week one and what mattered to jacob gibbs did you know 66 of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate don't let your project become part of this statistic a quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime financial penalties and keep you safe don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free.

It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. So I want to start with something specific, and then this is going to get really open-ended, which I know is kind of the way that you prefer it. But we have to start with why do you hate bo nicks i know i see people on twitter going over the film and saying man that things could not have gone much better for bo nicks and i see people you and dan in

particular going over the film and saying i don't understand why anybody thinks it was a good thing for Bo Nix. This matters for super flex dynasty managers for sure. Like, can this guy be elevated by Sean Payton? We thought they were a good fit. You look just at box score scouting, seems like a pretty good start. Why do you hate him? I don't hate him. I feel like this has gotten way out of hand.

But it's more of a real life take than a fancy take, Why do you hate him? I don't hate him. I feel like this has gotten way out of hand. But it's more of a real-life take than a fantasy take, which is still pertinent for dynasty managers for sure. I think he showed the same type of rushing that he did in college, and that's exciting for fantasy, particularly this year. But at the same time, Nix has to get on the field, and he has to be able to operate a functional offense. And what I saw in the first Um, and, uh, what I saw in the first game, and this is, you know, not, I'm no scout, but I do, I am pretty plugged

into, I think really good quarterback resources because quarterback is the hardest position for me to evaluate statistically. Um, the QB school, JTO Sullivan, uh, Derek class in QB class on Twitter. Um, my guy, Dan Schne, throw his name in there as well. Incredible film analysis from all those people. And they saw what I kind of saw, which is that he was making life way harder than it needed to be. It's week one of the preseason.

It's his first NFL action ever. So it's possible that we just move on from this and it's fine. But I also do think he kind of did show a little bit of this at the collegiate level as well. I just, I just, when I watched him, I was like, this is, these things are what kill drives, you know? And like, I want, he's got, the Sean Payton offense like allows for such easy like continuity and rhythm and like building and layering of the drives.

And he almost seems like antithetical to that in the way that he's playing. I don't want to overreact to it because like he does have talent, man. When, when he has his feet set, like he is throwing a freaking tight rope, accurate ball. But like a lot of the decision-making is, is strange to me. And it's weird because like, he's often doing too much, like I said, but at the same time, I see him turn down deep balls where it's just like, he has the throw and he chooses to check down, which is what we saw at Oregon all the time as well. So yeah, I don't

know. It was, it was just a kind of frustrating game to watch. And it's possible that I have some bias or something because i was a little bit hesitant about him coming in um so like i'm not rushing getting a judgment on that i didn't mean for it to be the end of the world here uh i think from a fantasy standpoint if he can clean some of this stuff up just settle in and find a rhythm like could be totally fine so i i'm looking at my rankings and i just wonder like you're a team heading into a rebuild that somehow still has one of these I-don't-know-if-they-have-more-than-one-year-left type starters. The Rodgers, the Stafford, you can put Wilson or Geno or Cousins in that group if you want to.

And you've got a true contender that's offering you a very late first next year or Bo Nix for one of those quarterbacks. Which one are you taking? I'm probably taking Nix. That sounds like everything I just said. I think that that's the answer. I think, yeah, he gives you the upside for this year if he does get the role and it works. And then, yeah, also he has some long-term upside. And I don't love next year's class, especially at the QB position.

I want to just kind of move towards the opening now. But I want to stay with the Broncos because Marvin Mims, very weird first preseason game. And in terms of snaps with the starters, looks like he's behind, not just Cortland Sutton, not just Josh Reynolds, but Tim Patrick. Did you have any thoughts about what happened with Mims? And how do you evaluate the way these coaches use players in the preseason

when they don't all have the same motivations? Yeah, it's really tough. And Mims is like, honestly, the perfect name to bring up because his usage is so strange. He started the game and then didn't play hardly at all. And then came in later in the game and played. If you remember at the very beginning

of the rookie evaluation process, I was very into Troy Franklin. And at this point, and even after the draft, like landing with Knicks, I was still tentatively excited. The more that I've just thought about this offense, it's like they bring in Josh Reynolds. They have Tim Patrick back. They've been talking about Tim Patrick all offseason. And honestly, Tim Patrick has been a feature part of the offense anytime he's been healthy.

Corlin Sutton's the clear number one. Sean Payton can't stop talking about how much size matters at the wide receiver position for him. And we've seen him have a lot of bigger receivers. Then why did you draft Marvin men's and Troy Franklin? I know. I think that's fair. I think it's possible. He sees them not so much as like every down offensive players,

but just like situational players in special teams. And then like coming in and being able to stretch the field in a way that maybe some of these other guys can't. But like, yeah, I think, I think it's going to be an offense that's mostly predicated on short passing and running and he really values

the size and physicality and blocking of these bigger receivers so i to me my guess is that mems and franklin don't matter i'm not drafting either this year not drafting either this year still holding both in dynasty until mid season at least. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they, they each has enough,

um, hype and buzz throughout the dynasty, um, breadcrumb trails that you might be able to find somebody who still believes they, they have good analytics. If they ever get a chance to play and do some stuff, then,

then like that might be it. They might, that might be a selling window or maybe they actually like play and are good. Um, because I think both guys are super talented. Right. Oh yeah. I'm, I was a big fan of both. And Sean Payton was like, not only do I not like these guys, I'm going to draft them and bury them. So nobody else can use them either. Um, I'm a big fan of Sean Payton right now. Um, who were some of the guys who moved up for you after week one of the preseason? Some guys that you were happy with either their usage or their performance or both? A lot of rookies, which is no surprise. We'll see on the injury with Tyron Tracy, but I

thought he looked phenomenal. He was the starting running back with Devin Singletary out. Bucky Irving looked really, really good for Tampa Bay. I'm really excited about what Liam Cohen, the new offensive coordinator, might do for their run game. Their first round center looked phenomenal as a run blocker as well. I think that this has been the worst run game in the NFL, and it might be a lot more efficient. So maybe that's just a good note for Rashad White if you think he's going to be the every down back but man I thought I love the way Bucky Irving runs man he runs with power he runs with conviction and he's also really shifty he's I mean there's he's fifth all time well not all time since 2017 the time

that I have the data available fifth in career avoided tackle rate at the collegiate level up there were some really really good names for a reason and that was on full display in the preseason Ben Sinnott for Washington and then obviously Jay and Daniels looked great as well Ben Sinnott really good names for a reason um and that was on full display in the preseason ben senate for washington and then obviously jane daniels looked great as well ben senate um there was some concern that maybe he might be doing more like h back type of stuff um which i don't that is a whole conversation on its own like everybody's excited about that and when it's brock bauer is doing it but when it's been sent it would be like a death sentence um he wasn't he was just a traditional tight end he made some big plays.

He looked really good to me. I loved him as a, as a prospect. We'll see how, when the playing time comes because Zach Ertz loves to just sit in the way of promising young tight ends that Cliff Kingsbury does love Zach Ertz. But I loved what I saw from Ben Senate, Xavier Worthy with the chiefs. Starting offense was out there for the first snap was used in pre-snap motion each of the first two plays for kansas city hollywood brown might miss time i think everything we've seen from worthy is exciting brian thomas jr um was out there for just seven

routes and i watched him he looked good to me man he was open he he he just glides past people like he covers ground faster than he should be able to. It looks unfair. I think he could be a big part of the offense. I think it might be slow. I don't think there's probably going to be a big target volume. I don't think the offense is going to be necessarily focused on getting him the ball early on. But if he comes out with enough big plays, I think he's going to get Trevor Lawrence's trust. He looks like a stud to me.

Christian Kirk is the one who came off of the field when the team did go to two receiver sets. If you guys remember, that's what happened in the beginning of last year as well. And then Kirk eventually just played his way into a role. But to me, I mean, I think Brian Thomas is probably going to be on the field. And this is one of those situations

where I don't know what matters because you've got Gabe Davis, the new guy guy and you've got brian thomas the rookie they know what christian kirk is going to do sure is it isn't it i mean and i don't i don't know this like could it just be that they want to see those two guys out there for more reps and then we get to week one and christian kirk's playing in two wide receiver sets absolutely it could be could be. Yeah. I think if that's the case, why even play Kirk? Just give Parker Washington more reps, you know? I like Parker Washington. Sure. Yeah. Yeah. I think he played well last year. I think he's kind of like a mini Kirk. I don't think he's as good on the deep ball, but like, yeah, that's, that would be my thought on it. To me, it looked like they were running what is kind of the plan

on offense. And that happened to be Kirk coming out of the field to receive resets Keon Coleman for the Bills played every snap with Josh Allen he was the only Bills player other than James Cook to do that when the Bills moved Dalton Kincaid to the slot which they did quite a bit they would have Kincaid in this slot and Dawson Knox a tight end then Khalil Shakir was the one who came off the field for all those plays. So the starting skill position players were Cook, Shakir, over Curtis Samuel, Coleman, and the two tight ends. But when they went to Kincaid in the slot, it was just three plays, but every single time they did, it was Curtis Samuel who stayed on the field

as a perimeter receiver rather than Shakir. So I just think Brian Thomas and Coleman, the usage was good. I thought of the two. Thomas looked better, looked more natural. Coleman looked like he had just some nerves. He was slipping a lot. I've had Worthy and McConkie and Thomas in my rankings kind of just tied together with Coleman, kind of a gap between those guys and Coleman.

Is that still the way that you view it or do you think Coleman's closer to Thomas than Thomas is to Worthy and McConkie uh that's about the way I've been doing it and now I'm moving Coleman up closer to them I think um yeah I think him and Thomas do kind of belong in that same group you want to talk about hypothetical upside that like we did the start of the show both of those guys fit the bill like the offense could be good they could score a ton of touchdowns they could be the guy in the and winning scoring distance for their offenses Keon Coleman and Brian Thomas Jr. and I do think it's important that they're staying on the field in these important situations even though it's just the first week of preseason like Roma Dunze isn't

that you can't say the same for him you know like that's i think that is the case often for young receivers but the team seemed to have a pretty big role in mind for these guys and so that's exciting i want to go back to the giants just real quick the giants running backs because assuming it didn't look good for tyrone tracy he went off in an air cast um the eric gray came in after him and hit hit some big runs had a lot of success as a rusher in college on the waiver wire in a lot of dynasty leagues right now is that somebody if waivers are open that you're looking to add at the next waiver run yeah yeah i think so i don't want to think about it man i literally saw the news like as i was driving over here to set up and record and hold my microphone so like i'm just so freaking

bummed about it tyron tracy is literally my most drafted player my most rostered player in dynasty um but yeah i think if tracy's out it's next man up and it's gray and he's looked good in the preseason so far he can pass protect a little bit he can do a little bit as a receiver and he's looked good in the preseason so far. He can pass protect a little bit. He can do a little bit as a receiver, and he's been a pretty good runner. I think it's just at this point, I don't think he's as much of a threat to Devin Singletary as Tracy might have been, because I think Tracy is truly like an explosive athlete

and play creator. So I think Gray is strictly a handcuff. But yeah, if you don't trust that Singletary can handle the workload, then Gray's, he's interesting. And we don't have like confirmation that Tracy's got a major injury. We do have a tweet from one minute ago from Patricia Trena, who is the Giants writer for Sports Illustrated. She sustained an ankle injury, will undergo additional tests at the hospital for special

surgery for a comprehensive evaluation so we hope he's okay um but again eric gray probably somebody who needs to be looked at on the waiver wire maybe if if he's just in that zamir class zamir white class he should still be rostered um just about everywhere what did you have any other positives or is it time to move to the negatives two non-rookies that i would mention are calvin ridley um so we saw trailing burks play the x receiver almost exclusively with deandre hopkins out and that is just exciting that to me signals that the team is really committed to ridley in this z flanker role the jamar chase

role is what brian callahan has dubbed it um i didn't we you hear that but you hear a lot of stuff during the offseason you know and you don't necessarily know what's actually going to happen until you see it on the field but we did see it um where ridley was only lined up as the extra receiver where there's like foot on the line of scrimmage where he can get pressed right away only one of his routes. They use them in pre-snap motion, got him a target that way. And so that's,

it's just exciting to see him used in some creative ways. And an offense is probably going to pass the ball a ton. And I thought he looked good. It was just, I mean, it was just one, one catch in five routes, but man,

he looked a little bit more spry and like explosive than I thought he did last year. He caught a pass running horizontally to the line of scrimmage. I'm not sure if that happened last year. No, so that was, no, I agree with you. I was, I was very, I mean, you know, I've been a Ridley guy most of the off season. I cooled a little bit when there were talks that he didn't quite have the connection with Levis, but that seems to have come around here recently.

So I think there's a good chance. He's a number two wide receiver this year and he's young enough and people who had him on their team last year are feeling a little bit burnt so he is someone that you can go acquire probably cheaper than where i would have him ranked or maybe even where jacob would um what was there anything anything negative you wanted to touch on michael mayer is the last positive i've met i would mention um i don't know what to make of oakland or uh the raiders usage because davante adams didn't play and they were truly like splitting bowers out wide and stuff like that i don't know how often they'll deal with with adams of the picture but regardless they used a ton of two tight end sets and mayor actually

played quite a bit i think he played almost 80 of the snaps with the starters. So he might not be somebody that we're forgetting about for dynasty quite yet. On the negative side of things, really, really brutal run out for Marshawn Lloyd. He is my second most rostered dynasty running back behind Tyrone Tracy. And yeah, he's just had injuries. It's been a slow start for him because of the injuries. And then he hurt his hamstring in the first game it sounds like it might not be too severe he might not miss any regular season time but it's just so rough for rookies to miss such valuable time early in their career um trey benson didn't look very good but he's running with the second string

offensive line so i'm not too worried about that yeah i didn't move him at all yeah um i think shakir and samuel it's reasonable to move them down we'll see how this continues to develop but um if they're only playing like half the snaps with the starters that that's going to be really really hard for them to produce during the season i'm curious what you think of kimani videl um people seem to think he's he's going to get cut potentially um that might be an overreaction i i think it makes sense to move him down but at the same time it's possible he was just like not healthy or was sick or something right like he warmed up and then just didn't play same as lad mcconkey the problem

is that like nobody who has been around the team has acted like he matters at all that's so true yeah like it's just like he's like still sixth or seventh going through all of the drills and just maybe he didn't suit up because, yeah, we don't really need to see him. Sure. I have a lot of leagues, and I actually kind of prefer it this way, where there's not any waivers for a couple of months between the rookie draft and the next couple of weeks, and then waivers open back up and there's some guys that have popped up that you want to add um like maybe an eric gray but all's not somebody who's

moved from like to my drop list already i i want to see where we're at week one um but i'm feeling pretty pessimistic i'm feeling pretty pessimistic about the entire charger situation i wouldn't say that there's anybody that's on the chargers that I feel better about than I did a month ago. That's fair. I'm still excited for Josh Palmer, but I mean, the Herbert injury sucks. The last guy I would mention that I'm worried about is Cole Komet. They started him and Gerald Everett and Everett played more with the starters. I was already having a tough time projecting Kamev for a fantasy relevant role, just with the three receivers and a team that, you know, has a rookie quarterback.

We don't know exactly how the pass run rate is going to shake out. Yeah. I don't, I don't know, man. Like he, to me, seems like somebody who might not even be someone you can trust at all. Like might not even be a top 20 tight end this year and that seems crazy like in this crazy league we're about to talk about with it where you start two tight ends kokomo was like a fourth round pick or something you know like he's he's being drafted in dynasty he's probably like a top 14 15 dynasty tight end um and i think that makes sense he's shown us pretty encouraging early career signs, but a new, new offensive coordinator here and a lot of newness in the offense with all the different pieces.

So like, I don't know what the role is going to be. He was drafted in the fifth round of our draft and two picks before I took Dallas Goddard. And let me tell you, I was thrilled to have Dallas Goddard and not Cole commit. Even though I think you look at what we think the talent is and the pedigree and the age, and it's hard to not rank him as a top 15 dynasty tight end. But yeah, it doesn't look very good for this year. And it doesn't seem like he's probably going anywhere. But that was a great transition, Jacob. Let's take a short break we'll come back we will talk about this crazy league that jacob roped me into and more importantly like some tight end premium strategy talk

some super flex rankings talk we'll be back right after this so this league is called tight end university jacob started it seems like about three months ago we are currently in round We'll be back right after this. So this league is called tight end university. Jacob started. It seems like about three months ago. We are currently in round seven of the rookie draft. I think Jacob just picked Jonathan Brooks. We've got the draft board up here, but I shared the draft board from sleeper with Harry and he did exactly what I asked him to do.

And for some reason, Jacob's dumb face is blocking pick one and pick two. And so we'll tell you who's been drafted in those slots. And I want to kind of go over what the rules are of this league. It's not that crazy. Four points per pass touchdown league. It is a full point per PPR league. Is that correct?

Mm-hmm. It's a full bonus point PPR league. Is that correct? Mm-hmm. Two, it's a full bonus point for tight ends. You start two running backs, two wide receivers, two tight ends, two flexes. Is that correct? Yep. So obviously Jacob wanted to do something where like, can we make tight ends really, really important?

And as you see the amount of orange in the first round of this draft, five tight ends taken, five quarterbacks taken in the first round. So mission accomplished, Jacob. I want to start with the quarterbacks, though, just because it is a four-point-per-pass touchdown league, which is different than a standard CBS league. And the first four picks in this draft go Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes,

CJ Stroud. My dynasty quarterback rankings are for six point per pass touchdown leagues and mine go Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson. Um, what do you think of the order of these first four quarterbacks? I think you, I guess, can justify Hurts at the top because of the format with the four point per touchdown. But to me, really, it's Allen and Mahomes are in their own tier at the top of quarterback rankings in any format. Stroud is a huge reach to me. Shout out to my guy, EJ. That's one of my best friends growing up. Um, I agree. I would have Lamar higher, but to me in this format, it's Sam Laporta 101. And the only people you could consider taking over him are Mahomes and Josh Allen. Um, really I just made this format so that I could see a draft where Kyle Pitts is a first round pick. And I got it picked 12. i'm so i'm so happy

with this freaking league it's so ridiculous so and that's the so i wanted to jump right into this question i'm gonna like jacob and i made a trade i think every person who has the reason the draft's taken so long is because every person who's on the clock gets a trade offer from jacob that's one of the rules um and i received a trade offer at the start of the draft. I had the sixth pick. He had the 11th pick. He offered me his second round pick. So pick 14 in the draft and a 2025 first for 106 and I think a 2026 third. And you did that after Sam Laporta was gone so that you could take Dalton Kincaid as the second tight end and the sixth player taken in the draft. I ended up taking Jamar Chase, 14th overall. I think we both got exactly what we wanted there.

But I wonder what was it, because I've seen you talk glowingly about Trey McBride all summer long. I know. What is it that put Kincaid over McBride for you? People are going to be calling me a hypocrite. What put Kincaid over McBride for me is that I'm doing this draft with four other managers. It's a five-man operation. You're sharing this team with four other people. It's my brother and three of my best friends.

And me and my brother have done 10 startups this offseason. No Dalton Kincaid. People are crazy with the places they take Dalton Kincaid. The same for Brock Bowers, who we took later in the first round. Our strategy was to go up and get two elite tight ends. We wanted Sam Laporta. We couldn't get him. Even with trading for your pick, we tried to trade up with Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points. Great analyst. He wouldn't budge on Laporta and it makes sense i truly think you should be the one to one i went with kincaid over mcbride even though i'm fully convicted that mcbride is a better pick um so if you've heard me talk about mcbride all off season that none of that goes away i just wanted to get my hands hands on some kincaid and honestly i'm so psyched about this

team because like we it's so young you look at this team and it's just like, oh my gosh, we were so right to start this podcast with a conversation about upside. Cause I've got Dalton Kincaid, Brock Bowers, my running backs are Devon A. Chin and Jonathan Brooks. Like it's as much of a, just like hype train upside team as you could possibly derive. Like it's completely hype train off of the rails you have a wide receiver don't have a receiver yet no wide receivers through seven three quarterbacks no receivers three quarterbacks and i will tell you you know who else is super excited about you drafting a very young team the guy who has my first round pick the guy who's but um no i i will give the first round here so it hurts alan mahomes stroud laporta kincaid jackson lamb mcbride jefferson bowers and pits um

and i i think we get to the point like maybe right after, oh, well, I'll save this for round three. So Lamb and Jefferson both go ahead of Jamar Chase. Chase is currently my wide receiver one in Dynasty. So obviously that's why I said we both got what we wanted. I was trying to decide between Lamar and Chase when I was on the clock. How do you, do you just think that like Lamb, Jefferson, Chase is a grab bag and just pick

your favorite one it doesn't really matter i actually have lamb and jefferson in a tier of their own i haven't heard jamar chase's wide receiver one from hardly anybody that is very interesting i to me it's like he's the next guy um but yeah i i didn't because i thought you were kind of low on him for season long weeks weeks. Am I misremembering here? I am a little bit low on him for season-long. I'm a little bit low on Jefferson for season-long as well. I don't entirely – like I'm about ready. Jamie made the move a couple days ago to put Tyreek back at wide receiver one

and drop Lamb a spot. Particularly past this year, like I'm pretty sure that Lamb and Dak are just going to get paid, pay, play for whatever they get paid this year. Are you super confident that C.D. Lamb is going to be on this team with this coaching staff and this quarterback next year? Gotcha. So that's what I was wondering if it was team level stuff with Lamb. I don't think anybody has more upside than Chase. Yeah. The three of them have record-breaking upside it's just worried concerns about like chase and burrow are going to be

together yeah no that's fair i don't have confidence in what's going on in dallas i don't think there's any way to jerry jones gives me less and less confidence every time i see him talk um but i'm immensely confident in cd. That guy has done nothing but improve year over year and a really like wild way, like continues to make huge improvements. Um, and he's still really young. So like, I don't, I truly don't know what the ceiling is for him. Um, Jefferson is amazing. And I hope I can make this point in a way that makes any sense. Jefferson, I feel like has kind of plateaued where like, this is the top of the range of outcomes for him because the types amazing and i hope i can make this point in a way that makes any sense jefferson i feel like has kind of plateaued where like this is the top of the range of outcomes for him because the types

of routes that he runs because he's running such deep routes it would be completely unprecedented for his target share to ever push above like 27 or 28 percent um that doesn't mean that he couldn't his role could change jefferson could be used in a different way with a different quarterback and so i guess that's a path to more upside for him but for lamb it's like he's used everywhere he can he he's shown an ability now later in his career to completely dominate press coverage completely dominate man coverage from the outside as a perimeter receiver he's insane as a slot receiver when he was paired up with kellen moore like he was unstoppable in that role being used in pre-snap motion all that stuff to me like he he can do it all um he can win all levels of the field and because he's not running such deep routes like a justin jefferson or a brandon iuk

or a nico collins or somebody like that he has the potential to push his target share up into like peak davante adams territory where it's like he's getting 32 percent of the targets 33 percent of the targets um and to me that kind of a player it doesn't matter that much what the team level stuff looks like that you know being on Dallas definitely helps being on an offense that creates so many pass attempts and has a potential for 30 plus passing touchdowns any given year definitely definitely helps don't get me wrong um but yeah I'm just like so confident in him as a player I think Jamar has the potential to be exactly what i just described but we haven't really seen it yet we haven't really seen him

do a lot of the short yardage stuff like he's if you look at short yardage targets and who's been the most efficient it's tyree kill and then jamar but it's a really small sample size for jamar you know it's like and i think that's like one of the places that we look at differently is i do think that we probably just saw the best year of CD lamb's career. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, which is great,

but if he does this, I mean, if he, he does continue to improve, like you're right. He has every single year. I want to get to a couple more rounds here because we, as generally happens when Jacob and I get talking,

we start running long and then we don't talk about as many things we wanted to. Mark Andrews went first in round two. I took Jamar Chase, then Anthony Richardson. That's another guy I thought should have gone in round one. Amon Ross St. Brown, Travis Kelsey, Caleb Williams. I took Joe Burrow in the middle of round two, so I've got that Burrow-Chase

combo. Stacking those two up, Kittle, Bijon, Jaden Daniels, Hawkinson, and Kyler Murray i thought the kelsey pick was so interesting because i get that point you're basically just deciding you know what we're going for it um and he might be like i i'm not entirely sure laporta is going to benefit from this as much as some of the other tight ends because the targets and catches with all the other weapons they have on that offense like he was pretty dependent on

touchdowns last year to be amongst the elite Kelsey or McBride or like Evan Ingram did last year 111 catches with the double PPR for tight end scoring could really be worth that 101 and you see that the guy who took travis kelsey started with cd lamb takes christian mccaffrey with the next pick takes jared goff with the next pick like he he got he got the assignment yeah it's a clear clear idea to go win a championship yeah yeah um i i man this second round is really interesting because to me, I think that the top tight ends are extremely valuable. Um, but after Andrews, there's a big drop off and you can throw Kelsey Kittle in Joku

Hawkinson Ingram into that kind of even Jake Ferguson. Um, so for example, like to the point you made, Evan Ingram was the top scoring tight end in this format last year, and he was sixth or seventh overall scorer in this format um and if you've been like like questioning why the titans go so high it's not only that they can score so many points in this format so you there have to be 24 titans started and some teams might start three titans we were trying desperately to trade up for ben senate if ben senate played a relevant role we would have been starting him as a flex you know and then that just pushes it down where now 25 tight ends are getting started. And so like one team is starting the tight end 25 or the tight end 28 or whatever, like that is such a huge advantage to have multiple tight ends. six or seven the advantage does kind of get mitigated um and really what i think kind of subconsciously got me going on this whole thing was just like how excited i am about the titan

group that we have coming into the nfl this year like this specific group of fantasy tight ends people have said like there's no you know classic like travis kelsey gronk mark andrews guy where we feel like he's a clear like league winner, like going to score 40 more points in the next tight end or whatever. I sort of agree with that, but I actually do think there's quite a few profiles here who could put that kind of a season up. And what really the most recent way I heard this framed was from Ben Gretsch

on a podcast with Matt Harmon, Yahoo fantasy podcast. And he said, the top seven tight end profiles are stronger and deeper than we Harmon, Yahoo Fantasy Podcast. And he said, the top seven Titan profiles are stronger and deeper than we've ever had in fantasy. And he's like, what are the trends that are going to define 2024 that we don't know yet? And I really think the Titan position could be a big part of that. I think honestly, all these guys are a little bit underdrafted. And especially for Dynasty, I think there's some like huge upside with even people like Mark Andrews, who goes completely overlooked in Dynasty, I feel like.

So I'm just kind of rambling about the tight ends at this point. But yeah, to me, when we get into the second and third tier of tight ends, that's where it's like really kind of a reach in this in this format. I will tell you that like it has been kind of a running joke in my columns for most of my career that this is the year that tight end is deep and so like listening to you talk i feel like i have fallen down this hole before and it always sucks like we always get to the point to where tight end eight is scoring 10 fantasy points per game and tight end 17 is scoring nine fantasy points per game and five guys matter um and that's what so i think i think you're right about like where the guys that are super overrated are i just think a couple of them might have gone in the first couple of rounds yeah if if it is what we've always seen where

like a few tight ends that we are really excited about don't matter it's probably going to be the two guys that i took right like golden kid and frog bowers where their their their roles aren't quite what we want i guess you can maybe throw coppets into that just because we haven't like really do it um but yeah those are the guys with question marks but to me it's like laporta mcbride and andrews and kelsey for redraft um and i guess for dynasty i don't think he's going away anytime soon i feel so good about the roles for those guys. And honestly, I'm really confident about the other ones too.

I'm curious what you think about Bowers. If you have more about this draft, you want to talk about, then that's fine. But like, I don't know what to think of his usage and all of the backfield stuff to me. It's so I love the people who comment on my stuff on Twitter. Somebody was like,

so we're getting excited about Brock Bowers because he's in the Taysom Hill role. And like, truly that is the exact role that Taysom Hill played in week one of the preseason. Like there's no one more closely compared to what Bowers did than Taysom Hill. And it's like, Oh God, like that's such a terrible way to frame it. I think he has immense upside. Um, I don't really like the hybrid thing i don't think i think it is a negative more often than it's a positive um specifically for a dynasty draft and this is not like we kind of already had this conversation but if i had traded away my first round pick he would not have been the tight end i would have taken because i want i don't want to have a good first round pick i need to go i want to go win this year but um no i think like he is a super wide range of outcomes guy probably the first two years in the league but if the raiders figure

out the quarterback position he could be a kiddle kelsey gron, like dominate the position for five years. And that wouldn't surprise me at all. So I think like in this format, it makes sense. But like I was talking about with the guy who took lamb and Kelsey at that point, I know the direction I'm moving. If I'm taking Brock Bowers that early,

I'm probably thinking like, it's almost like a productive struggle type thing. Let's get to round three. It was Marvin Harrison Jr. And I do want to talk about this pick of yours because I need somebody on this show to say some really positive things about Jordan Love's dynasty value.

Jordan Love, Evan Ingram, Jake Ferguson. I was hoping that Ferguson would fall to me. It might be a little bit of a reach, but I didn't get a tight end until round five. Christian McCaffrey, Brees Hall, thought the Brees Hall value was fantastic there i took justin herbert which is the next quarterback taken after you took jordan love garrett wilson puka nakua jameer gibbs david njoku, and Lawrence.

I pretty much have Jordan Love in this. And not to say that like where you took him is pretty much in the, I don't care range, which one of these guys go, but love Purdy to Lawrence, maybe even deck. If he's his contract gets figured out in dynasty dynasty that's kind of all one big group to me does Jordan Love stand out from that group for you or he was just the next one rated and you'd have been just as happy with one of the other guys he definitely stands out I have him above that group I to me have him in basically the same range as Burrow like if Burrow has done it for

longer we've seen him do it for longer but if you look at the two like i think love has a little bit more rushing upside and i feel better about his offensive environment i love matt lafleur i think the coaching there is better i i and man when i watched jordan love like he can make every freaking throw on the football field i i dug into him and watched like six or seven games this offseason we're just like so dang impressed it was exactly what i remembered um and even in the bad games like it's like this is stuff that i think will get cleaned up um the coaching is so good the receiving group is so good and so young the offensive line is good i feel so so secure about love to me he's really in the same range as burrow and caleb williams um

i would i take him over jayden maybe not in this format but over jayden daniels i would take him over kyler murray like i was trying to trade up and get him okay second round yeah so i i why do you have him below all of those guys is it just no rushing upside well i think like when you compare him to burrow the big difference for me is i think that there's an astronomical difference between jamar chase or even t higgins and jordan loves wide receivers um i don't think loves rushing is enough if you're putting up great passing stats to to give you a top five season but i kind of think he's going to be just above average when it comes to passing

and just above average when it comes to rushing which is kind of what i expect from lawrence which puts him in that like pretty much constantly in the qb 9 to 14 range which is a good starter and it's not i'm not i don't i don't I'm anti-Jordan Love, but it sounds like compared to everyone else I am. I think there's some obvious regression coming in terms of the touchdowns last year. I don't necessarily know. We'll see if Josh Jacobs changes things, but if you look at, and obviously Matt LaFleur

has had Aaron Rodgers. So like, but if you look at the offenses that he's called, they're super pass heavy in the red zone and they always create like a league high type of number of touchdowns in terms of percentages that come through the air right and right um i meant more like the passing a little bit but also probably not going to have four rushing touchdowns on okay attempts yeah yeah um but yeah um lafleur has done that and so he might be a 30 pass touchdown guy with a couple of rushing on the ground. No, I know that I'm certainly lower. And that's why I meant what

I said. I wanted you to kind of make the good case for him so that everybody gets to hear that as well. Now, one thing I didn't say that you did in this startup that I think is important for anybody that's starting a startup, this was a third round reversal draft. So when I was reading round three, that was coming from pick 12. And that's exactly the way that I would suggest that people do it. Do we have time to read one more round? You think we have time to read one more? I think we have time to read one more round. We'll go through it quick. Again, this was a tight end premium super flex full ppr where you have to start two tight ends so absolutely crazy i'm talking because i can't my sleeper is not updating you have the uh the draft results right there in front of you jacob um i can't see the first pick

but uh i know pat frymouth won this round and i think he's the only tight end pat frymouth went ahead of tyree kill aj brown jonathan taylor chris alave that's rich for me but at the same time if you're kind of on that corner and the titans are going you just saw ferguson ingram and joker go in the round before it's like i don't know you know and so you've got conviction about a guy um this i i think if you're going to take a shot on a tight end early that isn't one of the elite tight ends, it should be somebody like Fryer Moose or Ben Sinnott or Luke Musgrave who just got drafted recently where it's young, athletic, has the size, and has shown some target drawing ability.

So I do have it now. So we've got Dak as the first pick, followed by Malik Neighbors, then Pat Fryer Moose, then Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown, AJ Brown. I was the next pick, probably my favorite pick of the entire draft. I'd much rather have Brown than neighbors or Tyreek Hill. And I think that, that neighbor, that neighbor's Hill decision, yet another one that should probably determine your direction for the rest of the startup draft.

Then I took Jonathan Taylor in the middle of round four. Chris Olave went next. Then Goff, Tua, Saquon Barkley. You got the other guy I said that was not tier, Brock Purdy. And Drake London. So let's just take a look at your team through seven rounds. You've got Love and Purdy and Drake May, may who you traded for later are your quarterbacks you have a chan and jonathan brooks at running back you have kincaid and brock bowers at tight end like you're you're looking i

think fantastic it's an extremely fun team for 2025 yeah right it's a super fun 2025 team yeah we'll see we'll see I think if we can piece together a receiver position and get some late round running backs we've got a chance if these two tight ends hit we're going to be at such an advantage over everybody else because I don't think anybody else has two elite tight ends um what no no now I'm also this year not sure that you have two elite tight ends yeah yeah um like derrick has trey mcbride and jake ferguson that could definitely outscore our two yeah yeah that's that's a pretty good pair i was trying to see if anybody else took two that early and i really don't think they did um there's a Hawkinson and Njoku, but that doesn't count.

My team, and again, I did acquire a 20-25 first. So my thought when I did that was, yeah, we're probably going to draft for the future. I have Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert at quarterback. I have Jamar Chase and Devontae Smith at wide receiver. I have Dallas Goddard at tight end and I have Jonathan Taylor at running back. I'm not so sure that I can't contend this year. We're going to find out how much it matters at tight end because I think the quarterback position I might be pretty

good. The wide receiver position, I'm awesome'm awesome the running back position I've already got Jonathan Taylor things could be pretty good how bad of a tight end one is Dallas Goddard and how bad do I have to scrounge for my tight end too we'll find out in the coming weeks and months Jacob Gibbs thank you for being here thank you for putting this draft together yeah this has been super. I hope people like this maybe were inspired because I think it's just fun to keep coming up with new games, you know, keep coming up with new ways to enjoy football. And that's that's what Dynasty is all about, too. So I hope this league works out. I hope it doesn't just fall apart because it doesn't make any sense because Titans are just way too valuable. But yeah, this is this is funny.

Thanks for having me. I want to thank everybody who was active in the chat. Had some great discussion. We'll do a mailbag here before long. We will have Davis Smatic next Tuesday. I want to thank Harry, thank Jacob, and thank everybody who's listening on the stream. We will talk to you next Tuesday. Paramount Podcasts