Fantasy Football Today - Who Will Bounce Back in 2020? (03/31 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 31, 2020

Today we give you some of our favorite bounce back candidates for 2020. Heath will discuss Le'Veon Bell and Juju Smith-Schuster (4:00). We mostly focus on Bell as we discuss his upside, whether he'll ...get the same workload he received in 2019 and why Ben is mostly avoiding him in drafts ... Ben makes the case for a couple of WRs who are creeping up in age but can still be productive (18:00). How much do T.Y. Hilton and A.J. Green have left in the tank? ... Dave likes Adam Thielen and Tom Brady to bounce back (30:05). Are the rest of us buying in? And who do the listeners like as bounce back candidates (38:50)? ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com and tweet us with #AskFFT 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Alright, here's intro number two for Fantasy Football Today on Tuesday.
Starting point is 00:00:24 I did one just a few minutes ago, and we all agreed it was just bad. It just sucked. So here we go. Intro number two today. Bounce back candidates. And you all out there, you have no idea what intro number one sounded like, but it was really bad. But right now.
Starting point is 00:00:36 It wasn't as bad as intro number two. Really? Okay. All right. So let's focus it then. Yeah, go ahead, Heath. You want to get in on intro number two? I thought intro number one was number two.
Starting point is 00:00:47 But this one's definitely better now. This one's better. As long as you acknowledge how bad it is, it's kind of like laughing at your own bad joke, then everything's fine. We're going to tell you why a running back who was really bad last year on one of the worst running teams in the NFL is going to bounce back. We're going to tell you why the oldest quarterback in football, one of the oldest players in football, is going to bounce back. We're going to tell you why the oldest quarterback in football, one of the oldest players in football, is going to bounce back. We're going to tell you why two aging wide receivers are going to bounce back. See how good of an intro this is? People are like, who is he talking about? They're glued to the podcast.
Starting point is 00:01:21 And Ben's here. Ben Gretsch is here. We haven't talked to Ben Gretsch in a little while. What's up, Benny? What's up? I want to know who the two two i guess my receivers are the two aging ones but i think we'll maybe you and some of our listeners will be interested to learn they're not that old compared to dave's old receiver i think they're only a year and two years older than dave's old receiver so you're you're calling them old a little premature, I think. I think as long as we stay away from old running backs, we'll be just fine.
Starting point is 00:01:52 We've seen receivers over the age of 30 perform well before. Yeah, I've been making a big case for one of Ben's eight. I think I call them aging. I don't know if I call them old. I don't know. Maybe I call them both. Isn't everyone aging? Technically. Philosophically speaking, he's right. I don't feel. Maybe I called them both. Isn't everyone aging? Technically. Philosophically speaking, he's right.
Starting point is 00:02:07 I don't feel like I'm aging. I feel like I'm older than all of these wide receivers. These days, we are all aging, Adam. I guess so. Boy, it feels like I've been quarantined for months. And it's only been a few weeks. But wait a minute. Wait a minute.
Starting point is 00:02:29 You always work from home. It's not. We've changed for you. It's not just that. You don't have a drive to the office like he has and like I have. It's not just that. I mean, I really want to go to the grocery store. I am dying to go to the grocery store. Go.
Starting point is 00:02:41 No, I'm not going. I'm not going. Not leaving the house unless I have to. You can be safe at your grocery store. It's No, I'm not going. I'm not going. Not leaving the house unless I have to. You can be safe at your grocery store. It's okay. You can do it. Not as safe as if
Starting point is 00:02:50 you're in your house. That's true. Did you know yesterday I tried Chef Boyardee for the first time? How was that? First time ever. You probably hated it.
Starting point is 00:02:59 It was horrible. Holy cow, it was terrible. It's for kids. Yeah. Kids with bad taste. Okay. Injuries, news, and notes. There are none.
Starting point is 00:03:06 So let's promote something real quick. Drake or Patrick just got cut. Does that count as injuries, news, and notes? Oh, that's actually interesting. I feel like he actually was good last year. I feel like I was a, hey, yeah, you know what? So, yes, with the Bengals, I remember the stat. They were much, much worse against wide receivers after his injury.
Starting point is 00:03:27 So remember that. All right, so anyway, prospect profiles this week. We're starting it on Thursday, possibly Friday, by the way. Breaking news, that show might be on Friday. With quarterbacks continuing next week with running backs. We're going to give you everything you need to know about the top prospects in the draft, traits to player comps to best fantasy fits. And, of course, you can listen on your smart speaker.
Starting point is 00:03:51 Just say, play fantasy football today, Alexa, or whoever you have to do it. Hey, Alexa, play fantasy, whatever. Just tell your smart speaker to play fantasy football today, and we will stalk you in your home. Bounce back candidates also have a big list of bounce back candidates from the listeners but let's start with heaths all right here's what we're going to do i'm going to say i'm going to say their names and then dave and ben are going to say if they agree or disagree and then he's going to explain his thoughts levy on bell and
Starting point is 00:04:21 juju smith schuster ben and dave do you think levy on bell and Juju Smith-Schuster. Ben and Dave, do you think Le'Veon Bell and Juju Smith-Schuster are going to bounce back in 2020? Yes. I would have picked Juju if Heath hadn't already picked him. I will not draft Le'Veon Bell in any league this year. Oh! I took Le'Veon Bell in round four of the non-PPR mock draft we did. Sorry, I was getting confused. I don't know if I had. I might consider Bell in round four of the non-PPR mock draft we did. Sorry, I was getting ahead of time.
Starting point is 00:04:45 I don't know if I had. I might consider him in round three in PPR. Yeah, he was number 21 in non-PPR and number 16 in PPR. But Le'Veon Bell was 12th in carries last year. And no running back in the top 20 in carries had fewer rushing touchdowns than Le'Veon Bell. He had three. All right, Heath, make the case. Yeah, I mean, I think Juju is like the free space
Starting point is 00:05:10 when someone writes a bounce-back article, and there's no explanation needed. He didn't have a quarterback. He was hurt. He's going to be much better than he was last year, even if he's not the number one wide receiver like I may have thought that he could have been last year. So that's an easy win.
Starting point is 00:05:27 Le'Veon Bell, it's interesting because I'm still pretty much of the mindset, especially at running back, of volume over everything. And so far, the Jets have not done anything to make me think that Le'Veon Bell is going to get less work than he did. And yes, he was terribly inefficient on an awful Jets team with an abysmal offensive line. I anticipate the offensive line will be somewhat better. Maybe not good. Probably not good. Still bad, but better than it was last year.
Starting point is 00:06:01 I have a very hard time envisioning how Le'Veon Bell is going to be worse than 3.2 yards per carry. Maybe he's only 3.5 yards per carry. I don't think he's going to score a touchdown every 75 touches. I would anticipate that's closer to once every 35 or 40 touches. And so if he's like, I have a very hard time seeing how Le'Veon Bell is anything but a good pick in the fourth round
Starting point is 00:06:25 unless he gets hurt like it's just totally if you think he's going to be worse than worth a fourth round pick than you at this point and it could change in the draft um but at this point you just think he's going to get hurt because we saw as bad as he could possibly be last year with 300 touches and it was like the number 16 running back right in ppr um that's you get the number 16 running back in ppr over 15 games not even over 16 um in the fourth round and you did a very good thing yeah i don't know about that i don't know about that because that that's talk about well that's but but dave let me get... Because you said you agree, but you get the number 16 running back. He's basically just accumulating stats.
Starting point is 00:07:09 He's not really giving you... That's what fantasy football is. No, but he's not giving you good production on a week-to-week basis. He's not really winning you weeks. He's just... That's the kind of player you should not have to use with one of your first four picks.
Starting point is 00:07:25 In my opinion. I would not anticipate that Le'Veon Bell, if he plays 16, and I can pull up the game logs now, he had good weeks last year. Yeah, he did. He's going to have good weeks this year. It's not that he's just
Starting point is 00:07:40 not helping you. He's definitely helped fantasy managers win some weeks last year. Especially weeks one and two. He accumulated his way to 23 and 20 PPR points, but those were his two best games of the year. I would contend that the offensive line was a huge problem. For the second straight year, they were ranked 31st in pass blocking by Pro Football Focus.
Starting point is 00:08:05 And we go back and forth with PFF, but that line stunk. They've added Connor McGovern. They're going to draft at least one other guy to that line. And I'm hoping they actually find a way to—they added a lot of depth already. The guys that they've added via free agency aren't necessarily amazing offensive linemen, but they're upgrades over the poop pile that they had trying to make lanes for levion last year and remember levion is a patient runner he needs a little extra time and those blockers need to really find gaps for him to choose the right
Starting point is 00:08:38 lane to go through and once he goes through that lane assuming it it's there, he does well. He can pop off. I think he can be better than 16th overall in PPR. But that's not a case for drafting him in the fourth round. At least not for me. I guess it kind of comes down to a strategy perspective. But just beating your ADP doesn't make someone a good pick necessarily. That's one of your top five building blocks for your team. You would hope that that player has the potential to be a top five player at his position and can help you win your league,
Starting point is 00:09:13 not just be a small win. And so like, I've talked about this before on the show, philosophically, like when I make draft picks, especially early, I want guys that could be big wins or small losses. And Le'Veon Belton means either going to be a small win as a draft pick or a big loss.
Starting point is 00:09:31 Because I do think there, it's not just injury in my opinion. I do think there's some possibility that if he's as bad as he was again, he already has issues with Adam Gase. And Adam Gase has issues with him. He didn't sign him. He didn't want them to sign him. Will he lose touches if i mean will they go through a whole nother season giving him 300 touches if he's inefficient again and i i i think that's a possibility like at his age they might just decide that he's kind of washed like it could be a david johnson situation from 2019 where they decide to to
Starting point is 00:10:01 move on from him at some point during the season. I don't think they're just going to pump 300 touches into him again and hope that his efficiency improves. And Dave, to your point, they added a bunch of linemen, but I think the consensus is a lot of these guys were overpaced. And you mentioned that, but not huge upgrades. We already know that Adam Gase's offense held back a ton of players in Miami that went on to now be very good. And then his offense was disappointing last year.
Starting point is 00:10:28 I don't know what the upside is for his offense in 2020 with the Jets. I have a really hard time seeing Le'Veon Bell being a smash pick. So to me, best case scenario, he's a small win over where you draft him. Yeah, best case scenario is he's a functional number two fantasy running back for you. Oh, I don't agree with that at all. I don't know why we would think that a guy that was 12th in carries and had 78 targets in 15 games couldn't be a number one running back. I think the expectation should be he's going to be a top 12 PPR back unless he gets hurt.
Starting point is 00:11:03 At the same time, I can name off 12 running backs I'd much rather have than Le'Veon. The whole idea of drafting Le'Veon in round four is that he's kind of near the end of the leftover running backs that have a chance to maybe even make the top 12, but I'm not drafting him to be a top 12 running back. Well, you got him in the fourth round in PPR. He won't be in there in the fourth round in PPR. And I would take him in the third, late third round in PPR. And he might not get there.
Starting point is 00:11:30 There might be somebody like you in every league that remembers the good of Le'Veon Bell from the good old times of 2017 and before. But I can't justify taking him in round two at any cost. Round three, maybe toward the end when I know I've got another pick coming in round four,
Starting point is 00:11:47 that's when I'll consider Le'Veon Bell. But make no mistake, I don't have high expectations for him. I think he can be good. I think he can be better than what he was last year. But I don't think he can be top 12, top 10 in PPR. Yeah, I've got him ranked. That's my expectation. I think he could
Starting point is 00:12:05 maybe he doesn't get back to four yards per carry, but we should expect no worse than 3.6 if you're projecting. How many explosive plays could he pull off? That's what I'm worried about. The rushing average could be
Starting point is 00:12:21 3.9 to 4.1 and he can still be the accumulator that Adam talked about. How many plays is he going to be able to pop for 20-plus yards? If he's at 3.9 to 4.1, then we're talking about a 1,500-yard back. With his touches, yeah. And only three touchdowns was extremely low. Now, a few things. The Jets have four picks in the top 80.
Starting point is 00:12:50 And last year, Devin Singletary, David Montgomery, Daryl Henderson is actually in the reverse order. Henderson, Montgomery, and Singletary, they went picks 70, 73, and 74. It would be a stunner. It would be a stunner if they drafted a running back with all the needs that they have. I mean, but they have the 68th pick and the 79th pick. I don't think that would be a stunner if they drafted a running back with all the needs that they have i mean but they have they have the 68th pick and the 79th pick i don't think that'd be a stunner if they drafted a running back they they need a running back for the future sure sure they don't have a backup absolutely yeah but like even if they wait a little later and grab like aj dylan at a boston
Starting point is 00:13:18 college who was a really dominant big back gets calm to you know the really lofty comp is derrick henry but you know brandon jacobs he's very good size speed combine he's probably going to be like a third or fourth round pick if they go add someone like that and levi on bell is still their passing downs and lead back but he's coming in as kind of a hammer i think he'd be a good compliment and that's the kind of guy that i would think that if levi on bell continues to be um inefficient even if he does get up to 3.6 or 3.9 yards per carry, that's still not something that's really getting it done, that he could wind up taking a lot more touches away from Bell than any of the other backs did last year. But Ben, you agree
Starting point is 00:13:56 that most of yards per carry is not on the back. Oh, yeah, I do. I just don't think that the offense and the offensive line have improved enough. That's a big reason why I don't like Bell to bounce back. If he was in Pittsburgh or somewhere else, I wouldn't be as concerned. And I like his touch mix. I like the targets. And I agree with you. You can't project him lower than 3.6. I'd probably project him 3.8 or something yards per carry. But I have concern that he can maintain the amount of touches. There's just so many guys in the third or fourth round that i
Starting point is 00:14:25 would rather take and be excited about taking that i think have top uh like have the potential to be first round picks in 2021 because they had such a good 2020 season levy on bells it's just like a it's just a safety pick i guess you're locking in touches but i just philosophically i don't take those types of acts i think this is a good like the philosophically part of it though is a good discussion because like i agree there's no flash levy on bell's not going to be a first round pick in 2021 because it'd be a 29 year old running back but and i understand that like maybe you think there's more concern that someone takes touches away from him than I do. But the numbers you're saying, like if we just gave him a median projection and he doesn't lose those touches, then you're going to project him to be a top 10 running back.
Starting point is 00:15:21 You might project him to be a top 8 running back because you're going to project him for 1,500 total yards and probably 8 touchdowns. I want to hear something gross. So, like, I understand what you're saying about, like, the lack of upside with a player like Le'Veon Bell, and maybe even I'm underrating the risk, but I think that there is, like, number upside just in his base projection, and we wouldn't think that that was his ultimate, like, possible upside. Right, because if he's averaging even a little bit below four yards per carry and he's getting the workload that he had last year,
Starting point is 00:15:48 he's going to see positive regression in touchdowns. He can be better. He did not have a single carry of 20-plus yards last year. He had two plays of 20-plus yards, and they were both in the passing game. Just an absolute, like, just a nightmare year. I'm hoping the offensive line improves for them. And, again, I just got done representing the Jets in the mock draft on CBS Sports HQ,
Starting point is 00:16:16 so I've done a lot of studying on their needs. They need so many things. Besides the fact they need basically four more offensive linemen, their pass rush, huge question mark. Secondary needs help. Their receiving core is brutal. Who's their best wide receiver now? Crowder.
Starting point is 00:16:31 Crowder. Second best. And not only that, on Le'Veon Bell, 3.2 yards per carry. You can't even say it. He averaged four yards per carry in 2017, which wasn't great. And his longest run that year was 27 yards. So it's possible he's just, you know,
Starting point is 00:16:47 far removed from what he was in his prime. And here's one last fun exercise. And this exercise supports Heath's case and supports Ben's case. I think Dave is sort of in the middle of them, but I'm going to read you. I'm closer to Heath than Ben. Okay. I'm going to,
Starting point is 00:17:00 I'm going to play you. I'm going to play you, read you the players who were drafted in the fourth round of a PPR league last year, our Fantasy Football Today draft. And some of them really hit. Some of them were bust. Don't have that safety
Starting point is 00:17:15 of Le'Veon Bell. Tyler Lockett does 12-team league. Tyler Lockett, Evan Ingram, Josh Jacobs, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, Aaron Jones, Mark Ingram, T.J. Howard right at the end were injuries. And I don't think Le'Veon Bell doesn't have injury risk. We can set that aside and say if he gets hurt. But this is a guy who has had chronic knee issues missed a season
Starting point is 00:17:45 and wasn't very explosive when he came back i don't know why we would think he's going to be the picture of health as a aging running back as well i mean i think he has as much risk as anyone in that range let's go to ben's uh antique wide receivers the oldest guy now uh. T.Y. Hilton and A.J. Green. All right. Yeah. They're not in their prime probably anymore. Green missed the entire season. Hilton only played 10 games. He had 45 catches.
Starting point is 00:18:16 Averaged 50 yards per game. He did catch five touchdowns in 10 games. He's on pace for 802 yards and eight touchdowns on 109 targets, and he was outside the top 30 on a per-game basis. Who do you like better this year, T.Y. Hilton or A.J. Green? I actually feel better about Green.
Starting point is 00:18:37 Anybody else? Do I need to get into it a little bit more than that? No, I've been waiting for Ben or Heath to chime in. I thought you were going to give... They're Ben's guys. I thought you were going to give... They're Ben's guys. I thought you were giving them the first word. It's my fault. It's my fault.
Starting point is 00:18:50 It was bad organization. Yeah, I would just say, Siri, show me what Le'Veon Bell would look like if he was a wide receiver. Here's T.Y. Hilton. Or you could ask Alexa. I'm not sure who you're dissing with that. Me and you, it's a pretty good double burn. So do Dave and Heath think that Hilton and Green will bounce back this year?
Starting point is 00:19:19 I'm a believer in Green because I'm a believer in Burrow. And I think the Bengals are going to continue to be a floundering team. That'll have to throw the ball. And, uh, AJ green comes back. He's happy with the new quarterback. He's happy with the new direction.
Starting point is 00:19:34 He's got the franchise tag and he shows everybody that he can still be good when he's on the field. There's the injury risk to me is still the biggest thing with AJ green. The problem is that there's injury risk with T.Y. Hilton, and even though Phillip Rivers did connect with two receivers for over 1,000 yards last year in L.A., I'm still nervous about T.Y. Hilton getting there. And Hilton's never been a big touchdown producer, so I'm a little less optimistic about him. I'm at the point now where I'm comfortable taking aj green very late round four
Starting point is 00:20:05 and ppr ty is now more like round five for me i listen these two combined for 45 catches for 500 yards last year so yes i think that they will both bounce back from that um i like ty hilton slightly better than aj greenJ. Green right now. For Green, I think, and this whole Bengals offense, and I'm going to talk about this probably more and more as this whole thing goes on. How much time does Joe Burrow get with his NFL team? How much time does A.J. Green show up for all of the offseason stuff with his rookie quarterback? How much time do they spend together? I'm going to have probably more concerns as this goes on about players on new teams and rookies than I do in normal years.
Starting point is 00:21:00 And that will be especially true if Green decides to sit out everything because he got franchise tagged. So I like Hilton as a low-end number two, and A.J. Green as a borderline number two right now. Okay, Ben. Gretch, let's hear your cases for bounce-backs for Hilton and Green, and who would you take first? I would probably take Hilton first i like them both i he makes a really good point about potential shortened off season time and i think that could be uh something to consider but for both of these guys we're talking about you know injury rebounds first of all which is always a risky thing to bet on we're talking about um similar situations in that they should both be getting improvements at quarterback. I know a lot of people are down on Phillip Rivers at this point.
Starting point is 00:21:49 He's going to play behind probably the best offensive line, I don't know, of his career, but certainly in the last several years. So I do expect Rivers to play better than he has in the last couple of seasons. And he's still been an accurate quarterback. He throws a lot of interceptions, especially when they're're trailing or when the chargers in the past have been trailing in games he gets aggressive which i don't necessarily think is a bad thing a bad trait in the quarterback um and he does make some boneheaded throws but has always had pretty good accuracy numbers um and i i think is a considerable upgrade on jacoby brissett as a passer and then
Starting point is 00:22:23 burrow i think we should expect even as a rookie will be an upgrade on andy Brissett as a passer. And then Burrow, I think we should expect, even as a rookie, will be an upgrade on Andy Dalton, or else he shouldn't be the number one pick probably. So both of these guys we're talking about, if they can be healthy, they're almost certainly the number ones on their offenses. They're not quite as old as probably a lot expect. Hilton is 30 right now, will be 31 this year greens 31 will be 32 um but hilton before last season was clearly the worst season of his career before that he had over 8 000 yards in seven seasons so even if he had no yards last year he would have averaged still at this point a thousand yards per season for his eight years he only had 500 yards it was a down year but it was injury
Starting point is 00:23:01 related it was uh you know his quarterback his quarterback retired weeks before the season started. It was not a great year for the Colts for a lot of reasons. They've now, again, upgraded a quarterback. Green is a little bit harder to make a case for because he got hurt midseason in 2018, missed all of 2019. But if you go back and look, you know, six of his first seven seasons were a thousand yard seasons the only year he didn't make it was actually going to be his best year he only played 10 games and he had 964 yards in terms of yards per game that was his best pace he was on pace to have a phenomenal
Starting point is 00:23:36 year that year he's been very very consistent throughout his career until missing the last year and a half so these are two guys i think are very clear number one wide receivers could be in for for qb upgrades from what they've played in in the past and for hilton what he played in played with last year and should be in better offenses i mean i just think there's a lot of similarities and unless you think they're completely over the hill um i i'm curious where they went in our last draft because dave said fourth or fifth i feel like they've been going a little bit later than that but maybe i'm wrong no i took hilton in the fourth round in our i think a non-ppr draft and soon fifth round maybe
Starting point is 00:24:17 in ppr is three receiver league uh and he's worse than ppr and he's only had one season with more than 82 catches ty hilton he's a big yards per catch guy. Not last year. 11.1 yards per catch. I'm more or less willing to throw out last year. He was 16.7 the year before. Jacoby Brissett was horrible. Phillip Rivers, in the last 10 seasons,
Starting point is 00:24:37 only one time has a wide receiver had more than 1,200 yards. Only one time has a wide receiver had double-digit touchdown catches in the last 10 seasons with uh philip rivers antonio gates did do that twice though um and yet keenan allen has been really good last four years tyrell williams was 17th in ppr keenan allen was third keenan allen was 12th keenan allen was sixth so that's that's a really good recent track record of a number one wide receiver and um and philip rivers and tyrell williams would you say tyrell williams is more like ty hilton than keenan allen is sure yeah i mean i think when you you noted that stat i was
Starting point is 00:25:18 thinking well keenan allen was his number one and it's just a different type of player he catches a lot of balls closer to the line of scrimmage Tyrell and then Mike Williams last year had a thousand yard season um as kind of more the downfield threats I think Hilton is a is still obviously the downfield threat but is more of a well-rounded number one than either um Tyrell or Mike and it's it's notable the Colts haven't added anyone in free agency to their pass catching core. In fact, they've lost Ebron and really not replaced him. I expect they'll add to the, to the position group in the draft, but there's really not many free agents left that they can add that would
Starting point is 00:25:56 contend with T.Y. Hilton for number one duties. You're probably looking at Zach Pascal and Paris Campbell. Yeah. And Jack Doyle at tight end. Yeah. They didn't resign Funchess either, Ben. Yeah. And Jack Doyle at tight end. Yeah, they didn't re-sign Funchess either, Ben. Right. So you're spot on there.
Starting point is 00:26:11 So in both cases... I can't tell if the Funchess note is... I think it's legitimate because I think Funchess, if he had stayed healthy, I think he's going to try and be in Green Bay what the Colts envisioned him being last year,
Starting point is 00:26:22 and that's just another red zone target. So he could take touchdowns away from receivers wherever he goes, provided he's healthy. He just wasn't healthy last year. One of the struggles I've had with projecting the Colts is, obviously, they were really run heavy and game script dependent last year, 513 pass attempts, more than 10% below league median. The year before, same coaching staff, different quarterback,
Starting point is 00:26:51 obviously 644 pass attempts. Now, I would say quarterback wasn't the only thing that changed. Their defense was better last year, and their defense has gotten a lot better this offseason. Where would you guys put their pass attempts? Like, league median was 575 last year. Yeah, I think they'll be below average. But not too far below.
Starting point is 00:27:14 I have no idea. I think they have a quarterback this year. You know, they didn't want Jacoby Brissett throwing the ball. Maybe they did at the start of the season, but certainly it became apparent they weren't going to win behind him. So like 550? When he got hurt, that's when they really started to get cautious. 550 is a good number, I think.
Starting point is 00:27:36 But Hilton's been a good receiver, and he's a really good fantasy receiver, and he's only once had more than 138 targets. Two years ago, he was a top 12 receiver maybe just outside with like 120 targets he only played like 14 games so now so he started his career as mostly a deep threat and he wait you said only once he's had more than 130 targets he did it four years in a row 138 targets right okay so but 39 he only once he's had 140 adam if you wanted to judge pick that number right above where right like 140 targets is a ton
Starting point is 00:28:11 especially for a downfield threat that's a guy that's getting high value air yards downfield targets and still racking up plenty of other targets 140 is not a small amount of targets if he gets 140 targets this year he's going to be very good. Right, but I think he's been good. He was a top 12 wide receiver, maybe just worse than that, with 120 targets two years ago, T.Y. Hilton. Let's wrap up, Heath. Go ahead. Yeah, I think with Hilton specifically, you have, and Green, but with Hilton, you have the risk, did he get worse last year?
Starting point is 00:28:44 Or was it all Jacoby Brissett?. Did he get worse last year? Or was it all Jacoby Brissett? Did Phillip Rivers get worse last year? Or was it all his offensive line? And then how much do they want to pass? There's some risk there, and I think there's top 15 upside, like what he did in 2018.
Starting point is 00:28:59 Let me ask you this last question. How many of last year's rookie wide receivers would you take ahead of T.Y. Hilton and A.J. Green? So we're looking at A.J. Brown and maybe Metcalf, McLaurin, Slayton, Debo Samuel. I don't know who I'm forgetting here. But how many of them would you take ahead of Hilton and Green? Probably the first three that you said, and I think before Marquise Brown
Starting point is 00:29:32 or Debo Samuel, I think I'd be comfortable taking Hilton at that point. Yeah, I'd take Hilton ahead of Debo and Marquise Brown and Will Fuller. But what about those first three? A.J. Brown, McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf? As of now, I've got Hilton behind them. A.J. Brown is the only one I have ahead of Hilton,
Starting point is 00:29:52 and that's only a non-PPR. Once I get comfortable with the idea of Phillip Rivers chucking it deep, and that's just something that I've got to look into from last year and see how many deep targets he had, and I can find that pretty easily. I think I can warm up to T.Y. Hilton a little bit more. All right, Dave.
Starting point is 00:30:12 Adam Thielen and Tom Brady are your bounce backs. We've talked a ton about these guys. I don't know if we really need to get into it a lot more, but Adam Thielen was in a great position to— Excuse me. This is my turn to ask the other panelists if they agree or disagree. Oh, my bad.
Starting point is 00:30:28 Remember? I'm trying to save you a little time. We'll do five minutes on these guys and then we'll get into the bounce back-o-meter and then your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. All right, Heath and Ben, do you agree or disagree? Adam Thielen and Tom Brady bouncing back. I think Brady, you know, is a bounce back bounce back candidate yes he's in a better offense he'll
Starting point is 00:30:49 probably throw it out and field more but uh he's not something i'm going to get super excited about feeling is the guy that at the top of the show i mentioned is is only a year younger than ty hilton and we think we don't think of him as that old but um he's a guy also coming off an injury he's a guy also in a potential run first offense or almost certainly a run first offense i don't think of him as that old, but he's a guy also coming off an injury. He's a guy also in a potential run first offense or almost certainly a run first offense. I don't see how Thielen is so much of a better pick than T.Y. Hilton. And he's going in like the second round because Diggs is gone now and it seems clear he's going to get a ton of targets. But I think Irv Smith will be involved along with Kyle Rudolph. I think they'll be using two receivers and they're going to add to their receiver room.
Starting point is 00:31:24 I think Thielen's being overdrafted in a lot of our mocks when he goes in the second round. Yeah. He's definitely a bounce back candidate. He had 400 yards last year and he's going to be a top 20 wide receiver. I still prefer Thielen to Hilton, but it's a situation where I think Thielen's being drafted around too early and Hilton's being drafted around too early and Thielen's being drafted two rounds ahead of Hilton. So yeah, I think, I think he's a borderline top 12 wide receiver. He may have another good touchdown season and, and sneak his way into the top eight, but, um, it'll be interesting as well,
Starting point is 00:32:05 like with the injuries he's dealt with and without having Stefan Diggs on the other side, what his efficiency looks like. Yeah, and it's two straight years with injuries because I don't know if he missed any time in 2018, but he certainly played hurt late in the season. So that's a concern for Thielen for sure, but I've said it so many times I mean the guy's been better than better than Diggs in fantasy
Starting point is 00:32:30 when they both have been on the field and he's just been really awesome three years in a row basically when he's been healthy so I I'm very high on him I've been taking him happily in the second round or we're just saying that he was never healthy after his injury last year then. I mean, okay, you pull up the game log. I don't remember how many games he played after the – let's take a look. After the injury, and Dave, this is your guy, so I'll let you get in in a second here. But two of them he left almost immediately, right? He left the Chiefs game in week nine.
Starting point is 00:33:02 No, he played two games after the Chiefs game. All right, maybe you only left one immediately. He played four games counting the playoffs after the Chiefs game. And he was great in the playoffs. He played five games. He had one game with 129 yards and one game with 50. He played five games after
Starting point is 00:33:19 the injury. One of them was the Chiefs game. I think he left on the opening possession. After that, I don't know. You think a guy who had seven targets and three catches in two games was healthy? Well, I think it's interesting because before the injury, when he was so good for fantasy, it was almost all touchdowns. His yardage totals, 43, 75, 55, 6. No, he didn't get hurt in that game.
Starting point is 00:33:45 He played 95% of the snaps, 130 and 57. It was almost all because of touchdowns. Absolutely. I also just want to add, because someone mentioned this when we were talking about Hilton, whether he got worse. Hilton did the same thing. He played through a calf strain, and it was like every week he shouldn't be playing, but he's like, I'm going to get out there and play for my team. He was playing like 50% snap shares at times. He was not healthy at all.
Starting point is 00:34:07 Okay, Dave, go for it. Well, I just know that the two times that Adam Thielen's had at least a hundred targets in a season, he's finished as a top 10 receiver in PPR. And he's been top 15 and non PPR.
Starting point is 00:34:19 Uh, he was touchdown dependent early on last year. Still averaged 16 PPR points per game. He had a couple of real monster games, and there was the one done there where he only had two fantasy points. That was week four. I think he's clearly got the eye of Kirk Cousins. I think he's going to be the lead target getter in Minnesota.
Starting point is 00:34:41 I do think Irv Smith's going to have a role. I think they add another receiver in the draft Irv Smith's going to have a role. I think they add another receiver in the draft and there's going to be an interesting competition between that rookie receiver, Irv Smith, Chad Beebe, Tajay Sharp, BC Johnson, maybe even Dylan Mitchell gets into the fray and they compete for who gets the second and third most targets on the team. Kyle Rudolph obviously is going to be in that mix too, but he's been touchdown dependent for as long as he's been in the NFL. So I'm looking at volume for Thielen. I know he's a great route runner. I know he's got great hands and I see what you see, Adam. I think he does have potential to have another very,
Starting point is 00:35:20 very good year, particularly in a Minnesota offense that's probably going to have to throw more than they'd like to. I know we're talking about them as a run-first team. Part of the formula of them being a run-first team is having a defense that's very good. They've lost a lot of pieces on that defense, and I'm not sure how good they'll be at making up for it. Yep, that's a good point. And I think Dalvin Cook's going to be their second leading receiver. I mean, that's part of the appeal with Thielen. He is so far and away the best option on that team. Hilton's not?
Starting point is 00:35:54 Oh, no, he is. Look, I've been drafting Thielen and Hilton like it's my job lately. Which is a little worrisome. This conversation has solidified for me that Hilton is the discount Adam Thielen. You can save two rounds. All the arguments apply. I think Thielen's better, especially in a PPR standpoint. Thielen's got a chance for 100 catches.
Starting point is 00:36:18 I don't see any chance that Hilton has, like I said, one year with more than 82. But he did. I mean, he led the league in yardage in 2016, just four years ago. I mean, he's very good. You know what? The fact that I've been so heavy on Thielen and Hilton in these last two, it's only been two drafts, but I know in my mind that I'm very high on those two compared to everybody else on the show, except maybe Ben.
Starting point is 00:36:49 It scares me a little bit because, you know, sports is something. It's a young man's game. And these guys are in their 30s and they might be breaking down a little bit. So it does scare me. It's like independent of where they are in their careers. I think they're great values. But, yeah, you could be investing pretty high picks and guys are on their downside. Are we going to be nervous about Julio Jones? I mean...
Starting point is 00:37:09 Are we going to throw him away and not even consider him? No, he was good last year. Top 15 pick? He's been healthy. Well, he stayed healthy. Listen, I think Adam Thielen... And he's better than these guys have ever been in their whole lives. That's true, too.
Starting point is 00:37:20 But I do think that Adam Thielen, the injuries cost him last year i think we can immediately say that i don't think it's a talent issue with him at all at all i am not it's just a matter of can he stay healthy and can he get a ton of targets no he's not but adam was talking about age and so if we're going to just completely discount players because of their age at wide receiver discount i know it's easy to do at running back. Then let's throw in every receiver that's 30 or older. You should. I mean, you should.
Starting point is 00:37:50 And I look at Julio Jones' season, and he had 48 targets in his last three games, and that was without Calvin Ridley. Okay, he had 134 yards and two touchdowns, 166 yards, and then 78 yards in his last three games. I am not without concern
Starting point is 00:38:10 for Julio Jones because he wasn't as good last year as he typically is when Calvin Ridley was on the field. And it's possible, like my bold prediction for HQ this week,
Starting point is 00:38:19 we're talking about every team, we're each giving a bold prediction. We have like one team per division. My bold prediction on the Falcons is that Calvin Ridley is better than Julio Jones. How surprised would you guys be if that happened? Be fairly surprised. 30% surprised. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:38:35 My original projections had Ridley scoring three more touchdowns than Julio Jones. So I guess I wouldn't be that surprised. I've got them both in my top 10. Oh, you must love Matt Ryan. All right, cool. Let's get the bounce back-o-meter going here. Who did our listeners think would bounce back? This is from,
Starting point is 00:38:53 zero to 10 on the bounce back-o-meter, from Alex Mountjoy. Darius Geis. Five. Sure, five. I don't know what to make of Geis. Obvious great talent. They added Peyton Barber.
Starting point is 00:39:08 They're probably still going to have Adrian Peterson. Bryce Love I like. They have a ton of running backs. For God's sake, just give me a damn number. Three. Dumb and dumber. Too many cooks in that kitchen. From Mike James.
Starting point is 00:39:23 Odell Beckham Jr. in a big way. He's way too talented not to. Six. Four. Yeah, I'm trying to remember. Odell Beckham finished what, like 20th last year?
Starting point is 00:39:41 In PPR, he finished 25th. Okay, I'll give him a five. I think he'll be better than that, but not in a big way. Five. Okay. From Blue, OJ Howard. Bounce back.
Starting point is 00:39:58 Three. Another four. Four. From Mindaugi, James Conner. One. Seven. Four. From Mindaugi, James Conner. One. Seven. One? I would have said eight or nine two days ago.
Starting point is 00:40:13 I'm feeling more like a three now. Right. I had a feeling the Steelers were going to do this. Oh, they're going to add a running back? Yeah, they feel the way about James Conner the The Redskins feel about Darius Geis. They love the talent, but they're nervous about relying on him too much. Somebody had Jonathan Taylor mocked them. Okay, they'd have to trade up because they have the 49th pick.
Starting point is 00:40:36 Right, they don't have a first pick. Maybe they could get Jonathan Taylor there, but they don't have a lot of draft capital. They have one pick in the top 100, the Steelers. Of course, they could trade up and get someone but uh look they're going to add a running back does not mean they're not going to feature james connor for one more year and then get rid of them yeah they also added benny snell last year and have jaylen samuels as a good pass catching back so if they're adding to that you're
Starting point is 00:41:01 not just talking about one other back they're pretty clearly not going to feature james connor if they're adding to that i think they they've had it with jalen samuels and they're worried about james connor staying healthy and they need something they need another piece they're not going to pay james connor when his contract comes up which i think happens this year i think he's in the final year of his deal i'll double check it if not it's two years It's one or the other. I thought it was this year, too. So they can easily plan ahead. I do think it's possible because Jalen Samuels has not really been very good.
Starting point is 00:41:34 He's an H-back. In terms of efficiency. And Benny Snell, I didn't think was particularly good. So maybe they just want to add a backup running back. Yeah. This is the last year of Connor's deal. I'd be shocked if he signed a rich extension after this year. Connor, by the way, has one season as anything remotely close to a workhorse back.
Starting point is 00:41:57 And he was a late-round pick, or a third-round pick. He wasn't like a high-profile guy. So just assuming that he's their star number one lead back, I think is a little aggressive. Okay. How about a couple more from Ed Duby's? I don't know. Aaron Rodgers, bounce back.
Starting point is 00:42:17 It's possible. Oh, I'm going to say a seven for Aaron Rodgers. He's had 27 total touchdowns each the past two seasons they've they they've added devin funch's that should be good for five touchdowns i know you can laugh but five touchdowns i'm not saying he's gonna be good for fantasy he's gonna be good for aaron rogers i think sternberger can catch five touchdowns i think davante adams can catch all the rest of the touchdowns aaron jones get a few, but taking away from Adams. And they might draft a receiver.
Starting point is 00:42:47 Wouldn't surprise me in the least if we saw Aaron Rodgers get back over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Oh, 4,000. I mean, he'll get that. But will he get 4,500, 4,300? He might be just—I would say 42 is a safe number for him. All right. How about from Ethan? Phillip Rivers.
Starting point is 00:43:08 I think five or six. I should have changed Aaron Rodgers. I'm going to change Aaron Rodgers to a one because there should only be one zero. I'll say Phillip Rivers. Zero. I'm really surprised you're that low on Aaron Rodgers. Yeah. I don't know why he's so low on Phillip Rivers.
Starting point is 00:43:24 Well, Aaron Rodgers was what, 12th at quarterback last year? I think he was like 8th. It was quite a bunch there. I don't think he's going to be a top 5 quarterback. That's what he had to be to bounce back, right? So, not getting too specific into where he'll
Starting point is 00:43:40 finish. No, I don't think that's true. I mean, he wasn't that good last year. He was only good when he had an amazing matchup basically, and he was great in those games. He wasn't that good. We know that. So just from a playing... He hasn't been that good for three years.
Starting point is 00:43:55 From a performance perspective, will Aaron Rodgers bounce back and play really well? To 2016? Not going to win the MVP or whatever he did in 2016 i don't know but yeah can he can he get you can he can he have a 35 touchdown season can he be can he be amazing again i i don't know what like it's it's been a long time since we've seen that so you're saying no yeah okay can i make a quick case'm sorry i think you'll be a top 12 quarterback that's fine
Starting point is 00:44:27 i just don't think it'll be any much different than last year okay sorry yes you can make a quick case or philip rivers all right so frank reich offense which i think frank reich is a very good quarterback coach uh and i think it suits rivers it's short passing um it's uh you know like they're probably going to be more run heavy. We were talking about the past dumps earlier, but good offensive line. I think he has a lot of weapons in, in Campbell and Naheem Hines is a really good athlete.
Starting point is 00:44:53 And I still, I obviously am optimistic about T.Y. Hillman. I think Zach Pascal is really good too. So I think he, like this could be a type of thing where he's now in a better fit than he's ever really been. And like, do you guys remember when Brett Favre went to the Vikings and had like a really good late season or late career season?
Starting point is 00:45:10 Like, I kind of feel like we could see a little bit of a bounce back from Philip Rivers like that, a little bit of a rejuvenation. He's a competitive guy. He's, you know, he's going to want to do well. So am I crazy about that? No, it's just you're drafting him with one of your last three picks. I don't, I, you don't prioritize them as a top 12. Oh, certainly. He has no rushing value whatsoever.
Starting point is 00:45:34 He's not like a huge fan, but that's it. But he never has. Yeah. But I do love the idea of him throwing behind that offensive line, especially if they can find one more piece to that passing game. And that's the thing that like, and it's the same thing I said about Rodgers, but this is a fantasy football show. Like he was the 15th quarterback in fantasy last year. Yeah. I'm thinking more, I guess, for his weapons than to really hit him.
Starting point is 00:46:00 Like, I don't think he's going to make the Colts weapons better than the Chargers weapons were last year. There's a difference, though, between just looking at where a guy finished in fantasy points and really talking about the impact he had on your fantasy team. Aaron Rodgers did not feel like the eighth most valuable quarterback last year. Phillip Rivers did not feel like a top 15 quarterback. But what did they do? They played 16 games, and they accumulated a lot of stats. But they didn't play particularly well, especially Phillip Rivers.
Starting point is 00:46:27 It's not like Rodgers was bad. We're not drafting Aaron Rodgers to be better than a top eight quarterback. We're not drafting Phillip Rivers as a top 15 quarterback. I don't really think Aaron Rodgers was a top eight quarterback last year. By the numbers, okay, yes, he finished 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7th in six points. He finished 11th in fantasy points per game. Does that sound a little more like the Aaron Hodges you saw last year? Yes.
Starting point is 00:46:51 But not even. But not even because he was so inconsistent. Now, let's not forget, Devontae Adams got hurt. Their number two receiver situation was as bad as it gets. Their tight end situation was horrible. And he was learning a new system. So they really needed a weapon. And if they do, I don't
Starting point is 00:47:11 see why. I still feel like there's a great player there in Aaron Rodgers. He is not old. He doesn't really run that much, but he's not Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers. I don't see why he can't be a stud. He did have some crapola throws, though. I do remember some throws that just...
Starting point is 00:47:29 Yep, you're right. Third-string quarterback-type throws. He can still be a great player and not ever be the era. He's just... That guy, all the evidence we have suggests the guy we saw from 2009 through 2014 or 16, whenever you want to cut it off, doesn't exist. But he threw for 4,400 yards in 2018 and only 25 touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:47:52 With 600 pass attempts. I don't think they're probably going to throw the ball up many times. They're going to be good. He had 569 pass attempts last year. He had 29 fewer pass attempts. And he had almost 28. I think his yards per attempt will be between 7 and 7.4. He's going to be between 4,000 and 4,200 yards.
Starting point is 00:48:18 All right. I guess I'm a believer. Here we go. Emails, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Okay. 12-team PPR. I need to keep two forever. Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, George Kittle, Lamar Jackson, and Chris Godwin.
Starting point is 00:48:34 Ooh. Chubb, Jones, Kittle, Lamar Jackson, Chris Godwin. PPR. Keep two forever. Godwin and... I think if we were drafting, Godwin and I think if we were drafting Godwin and Jones would be the two that would go off the board first
Starting point is 00:48:51 so I might be no I think he would and Pete Jones went before Chubb in our most recent draft very close I'd go Godwin and Kittle and keep forever.
Starting point is 00:49:07 Yeah, if the idea is to just keep those studs for a long time, then yeah. All right. From Bryce from The Land. Dear Roger, LeBron, Wayne, and Tom. Those are the GOATs. They are. I don't see a Michael on that list. Who's Roger? Roger Federer. Federer. I don't see a Michael on that list. Who's Roger?
Starting point is 00:49:25 Roger Federer. Federer. Okay. Come on, Omni. He misspelled his name on the email. He did. Come on, OmniSport. Maybe he meant Roger Saffold.
Starting point is 00:49:34 Did I get my points for the Kansas Jayhawks winning the national championship? Oh, God. By the way, that first email was from Trace. And this email is from Bryce. So here we go. How is it possible to take Derrick Henry and PPR ahead of Nick Chubb when Chubb caught more passes, had more receiving yards, and almost had more rushing yards, even with Kareem Hunt there?
Starting point is 00:49:56 Now add Kevin Stefanski, who loves to use running backs. Chubb will outscore Derrick Henry. Help me understand why he wouldn't. Well, Chubb was on his way to being better than Derek Henry all the way around, and then Kareem Hunt came in and his production nosedived. Kareem Hunt's still there. Unless something happens where Kareem Hunt's gone
Starting point is 00:50:14 and Chubb gets all the work in Cleveland like Derek Henry gets pretty much all the work in Tennessee, I'm going to take Henry first. Yeah, I think the question was because it seems like a lot's being put. He was on pace for 22 catches in games with Chubb, which is pretty similar to what you would expect for Derek Henry.
Starting point is 00:50:34 Wait a sec, wait a sec, wait a sec, wait, wait. He was on pace for 22 in games with Hunt, you mean? With Hunt, yes. But I thought he was on pace for 30 catches. I have him with 15 catches in those eight games. I have him with 11 in those eight games. Okay. And he was on pace for like 1,600 total yards.
Starting point is 00:50:54 It's just that he scored two touchdowns, so it looked like he was terrible after Hunt was there. Okay. Either way, he was on pace for more catches. What did Henry have, 18? Yeah, Henry's never had 20 in a season. So, I mean, even with Hunt there, I expect Chubb to catch more passes than Henry.
Starting point is 00:51:12 And I'm taking Chubb before him. Chubb isn't the guy who had 400 touches last year. He's younger. Chubb's very good. I mean, I agree there's like a logjam for touches in Cleveland's offense, but I still think Chubb is the better pick. I agree with the writer.
Starting point is 00:51:28 Yeah, you're right, Heath. He had 11 catches. I think I added an extra game in there. The last eight games, 11 catches for Nick Chubb, but he was on pace for 1,382 rushing yards and 234 receiving yards. So did we give a real answer to this? To me, the answer is touchdowns. Oh, yeah, sure, that too.
Starting point is 00:51:51 Even though the two touchdowns last year from Chubb were ridiculous and you shouldn't expect anything. He may score 10 touchdowns, but if Derrick Henry plays 16 games, I think he probably scores 15 touchdowns, and he's the only running back I feel like that about. All right. Let's go to our next email.
Starting point is 00:52:10 At fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. From Salvador. Grade the trades in a 12-team half PPR Dynasty League. Trade one. Give up Mike Gasicki and pick 2-11. 11th pick of round two. Get Devante Parker and Daniel Jones. That's an A.
Starting point is 00:52:28 Yeah, nice. Sounds like an A to me. I don't know what that grunt was. A C? It's a C. You're a C. Alright, give up Devin Singletary.
Starting point is 00:52:43 Give up Devin Singletary. Get A.J. Brown and 212. 12th pick of round two. Give up Devin Singletary. There's not a scale big enough to give that an A+. I don't know how many pluses I would have to put on that before I felt tired of putting pluses on that. How did he get the 2-12 with this?
Starting point is 00:53:06 I think there are certainly probably 30. I could do a Twitter poll. Who would you rather have in a dynasty league? And I would assume like a third of the people are going to choose Singletary. Which is understandable. I would say it's an A. I prefer Brown to Singletary, but they're back-to-back for me, and you're getting a draft pick, too, so that's great.
Starting point is 00:53:28 I was just trying to make Gretch go crazy by saying C. It's an A. This next email is from NoName. Dear Harold, Albert, Harold, Donald, and Mushmouth. That's Fat Albert. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:53:43 Fat Albert and the Cosby Kids? I don't know okay okay hey hey hey all right old man i have the third pick in an eight team ppr league so everyone has a pretty good lineup uh let's see so he has girly and damian williams at running back and also kareem hunt he has adams and feeling he has kelsey levante adams and adamielen. He has Kelsey, Levante Adams and Adam Thielen. He has Kelsey. And he has a good bench. So I was offered Marlon Mack, Austin Hooper, and T.Y. Hilton for Mark Andrews, Drew Brees, and Tariq Cohen.
Starting point is 00:54:19 Remember, he has Kelsey. So he'd give up Mark Andrews, Drew Brees, and Tariq Cohen. He would get Marlon Mack, Austin Hooper, and T.Y. Hilton. Would you do this? I don't think so. Oh, yeah. But I would, and this is going to sound crazy probably. I would see if he'd give me a little bit more if I changed Andrews to Kelsey
Starting point is 00:54:41 because in Dynasty I'd rather have Andrews than Kelsey. Interesting. Okay. Well, I would rather have Andrews than Kelsey. Interesting. Okay. Well, I would like to get more than Mack because... Could you flip Hooper after you make this trade? I don't know. In an eight-team league? No. He's not a starter.
Starting point is 00:54:58 No, yes, he is. In an eight-team league, someone should start Austin Hooper. Not necessarily. I mean, this guy's not going to. He's either going to have Travis Kelsey or Mark Andrews. Okay, from Dave. 12-team keeper league, PPR, six-point-per-passing touchdown. I'm taking over a team in a league that has been around for years. I have the second pick in the draft.
Starting point is 00:55:17 Here are the players I'd consider keeping. I can keep five. Who should I keep? Daryl Henderson in the fifth round. Darwin Thompson in the fifth round. Darwin Thompson in the fifth round. Mahomes in the sixth. Hardman in the seventh. Deontay Johnson in the ninth.
Starting point is 00:55:30 David Johnson in the 13th. Darius Geis in the 14th. Noah Fant in the 17th. Bryce Love in the 18th. Pick five. Henderson, Mahomes, and Fant are musts. Yep. Geis.
Starting point is 00:55:44 And I would keep Hardman. I'd keep David Johnson. I think I'd go with Johnson and Johnson with the last two. Okay, okay. Try and redraft Hardman. Henderson, Mahomes, and Fant. I think we all agree the top three are Henderson, Mahomes, and Fant.
Starting point is 00:55:59 And then do we have anybody else? Does anybody not want to keep David Johnson in round 13? I don't. You'll go with the younger receivers? Yeah, I'll probably go with Meikle and Deontay Johnson. Or Darius Geis, I think I would keep before David Johnson as well. This is a keeper league, not a dynasty league. You're just really focusing on this year's value, I think.
Starting point is 00:56:22 And David Johnson in the 13th round, I don't love him, but you got to take David Johnson in the 13th round. Like, you're giving up a draft. You could draft me Cole Hardman after the 7th round. You can draft Deontay Johnson in the 9th round. Yeah, you can't
Starting point is 00:56:40 do it with guys. Not in a keep 5 league. No. Everyone gets pushed way up. Yes. David Johnson's probably a second-round pick in this format. Next email. Aaron from Ireland. To the regulators. 10-team standard scoring Dynasty League.
Starting point is 00:56:54 Should I trade Mike Williams? And if so, for what? I'm trying to improve at tight end. I have Darren Waller, Jacob Hollister, Dawson Knox, and Jordan Atkins. He has six picks. Oh, Atkins, Dawson Knox, and Jordan Atkins. He has six picks. Oh, Atkins. Yeah, Jordan Atkins. He did write Atkins, and Ron Bergen did that.
Starting point is 00:57:13 Anyway, should he trade Mike Williams in a 10-team standard scoring dynasty league? Sure. I'm not real optimistic about him with a quarterback change right now. Heath, what's the chart say? I don't know if this is accurate. I feel like Mike Williams' value is viewed all over the place. Could you get Tyler Higbee for him? I'd do that. I would trade him for Noah Fant.
Starting point is 00:57:48 Oh, yeah. I'd trade him for Mike Gasicki. What about Hayden Hurst? Oh, yeah. I'd trade him for Hayden Hurst. Hayden Hurst is 27. What do you guys have against Mike Gasicki? What do you have for Mike Gasicki?
Starting point is 00:58:06 97th percentile spark athlete. Second round pick. Just got the fourth most air yards at the tight end position in his second season. A freak athlete at 6'6", who played a ton last year, got a ton of volume. He wasn't great, but... There you go. You buried the lead. No, look, I mean, obviously, the things you say are encouraging.
Starting point is 00:58:28 He's going into his third year, so I think he should be on the breakout. And he didn't really get much of an opportunity his first year. Right, right. If we're being fair. Well, I got to read one more important email here to end this show.
Starting point is 00:58:39 And this is from Jared in Atlanta. With all of this sudden free time, I decided to finally watch Jerry Maguire and settle for myself if it was a football movie. Personally, I don't think it is. However, while typing this up, of course, the most memorable scene of the movie is Rod Tidwell's knocked unconscious touchdown grab. Weak winning fantasy performance by Rod Tidwell. With that being said, Tidwell's central portrayal is his true love story with his wife Marcy and his flourishing and loud friendship with Jerry. Whereas for Jerry, it is his epiphany on his purpose for his career in life and the
Starting point is 00:59:09 tough road ahead for him. Calling Jerry Maguire a football movie would be like calling How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days a basketball movie, just because the Knickerbockers play a small role in the flick. That is just not a good analogy whatsoever, because How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days, the main characters aren't basketball players. They just go to a game, I think. I mean, congratulations, Jared from Atlanta. You're wrong. No, he's right.
Starting point is 00:59:32 I mean, he's taking it a little bit too far with the How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days. But it's a love story, everybody. And I plan on watching it this weekend because I don't think my wife's ever seen it. And she doesn't think it's going to be good. But one thing we can all agree on, it's a great movie. A great movie. And it needs to be watched, even though there's barely any sports in it. You complete me, Adam.
Starting point is 00:59:54 Thank you, Dave. You complete me as well. Everybody, y'all had me at hello. Talk to you on Thursday or Friday with our next edition of Fantasy Football Today.

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