Fantasy Football Today - Wide Receiver Breakouts! Year 3 WRs Lead the Way (08/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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Starting point is 00:01:39 I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, presented by BetMGM. Hope you're ready for more breakouts. We've got wide receivers here.

Starting point is 00:02:00 We had Joe Pizzippia on for quarterbacks. We had Chris Harris on for running backs. We are bringing in from FFT Dynasty, Heath Cummings is here. Heath, Joe PCP on for quarterbacks. We had Chris Harris on for running backs. We are bringing in from FFT Dynasty. Heath Cummings is here. Heath, tell us how we can find your content. Hey, thanks for having me. I am on the Fantasy Football Today YouTube channel. Oh.

Starting point is 00:02:16 And FFT Dynasty, wherever you get your podcasts. I will go ahead and subscribe to that channel. I've heard really wonderful things about it. I've heard it's rapidly approaching 100,000 subscribers. It is. We need to get there, by the way. I mean, you need to get there, by the way. Hey, Jamie.

Starting point is 00:02:29 Adam, I have a question because I'm very inquisitive today. If one of my coworkers and cohorts is now the coach of my son, am I allowed to critique any of the things that he says in fear of playing time for a said child oh this is incredible heath is your son's basketball coach now well he has to make the team first um i i does he control that decision yeah of course of course i do wow i think we have a roster of two right now but we'll see he's got good chances right now. He also has the tallest heel on the basketball team.

Starting point is 00:03:07 You should watch the episode of Homer heckling Flanders as the football coach. This is going to be great content throughout the course of the season. I look forward to it. We'll do our breakout wide receivers. We don't have a guest

Starting point is 00:03:24 on today's show. Dave is actually on HQ right now talking about J.J. McCarthy and what it means for Justin Jefferson. So let's start there. J.J. McCarthy is out for the season. Jamie, what does it mean for Justin Jefferson? It doesn't mean anything for me, to be honest with you. I anticipated mediocre quarterback play for Jefferson this season. And when I say that, obviously you want to have great quarterback play for your receivers,

Starting point is 00:03:47 but I trust the system and you know, it's a small sample size, but what I saw from Jefferson and the time he spent with Dick Mullins gave me very much a level of, I don't say hope because I know he's a great player, but a level of comfort that he can produce with almost anybody throwing him the ball. Now, Sam Darnold has been awful. We know that.

Starting point is 00:04:09 And as our esteemed producer Thomas Schaefer brought up, we could see Darnold if he struggles or gets hurt. Nick Mullins come back in. So at least you know what you're getting there. He averaged over 20 PPR points per game in those four games. Yes, he played Detroit twice. You already made fun of me with the voice earlier today. You don't have to do it again. But I still think you saw 10 targets per game.

Starting point is 00:04:29 He is the NFL's leader in yards per game by almost 11 yards over the next guy in NFL history, Calvin Johnson. He just produces. He's an amazing talent. And there's just so much still upside for him in an offense that is most likely going to be throwing the ball all over the place. Now, I will say this. Thomas brought up something in the break that does concern me because we saw it a little bit last year. If Jefferson gets hurt, the Vikings could be in the conversation

Starting point is 00:04:55 to be the number one overall pick maybe, you know, because while we like a lot of volume passing for fantasy, their defense may not be that great. Their offense may not be as good as it could be. And we could see the Vikings struggle once again. So does Jefferson get shut down if he gets hurt? That's a legitimate concern for me. His production, I'm not necessarily worried about it.

Starting point is 00:05:15 And when you talk about Lamb holding out and Chase holding in and the other guys up there, I still think Jefferson belongs in the top five overall picks. Okay, Heath, your response? I mostly agree. I was just updating my projections with 17 games of Sam Darnold. And I think the ceiling's lower because J.J. McCarthy could have just been every bit worthy of being a first-round QB

Starting point is 00:05:44 and been much better than Sam Darnold's ever been. And the floor's lower because if Sam Darnold's awful, you don't really have anybody else you want to go to that can fix things. But even with a slight decrease to the touchdowns and a slight decrease to the passing efficiency, Jefferson's still in the top six. Still an easy first-round pick. Still an easy first-round pick. Still an easy top-nine pick.

Starting point is 00:06:10 Maybe he falls back to eighth or ninth. All right, let's rock and roll with some breakout-wide receivers. Heath, I'll let you start. Yeah, and I don't know. I'll just say off the top, I think the most obvious ones for everybody, because he does require a breakout to be as good as where we're drafting him.

Starting point is 00:06:29 Garrett Wilson and Marvin Harrison, we expect to be super duper star breakouts this year. One that I'll give that I think is a bit of an outlier, Michael Pittman. I think he has his most efficient year as a pass catcher. They do a little bit more downfield with Anthony Richardson. Some of the read option stuff is going to really help his efficiency. And I wouldn't be surprised if he sets a career high in touchdown. Let's go one more time.

Starting point is 00:06:57 Okay. Michael Pittman. He was wide receiver 27 per game and non-PPR 18 per game and full PPR last year. So that is definitely a different one. Uh, Jamie, you're up. I'll go with the other two third year receivers in the second round, which are Drake London and Chris Olave. And we've spent a lot of time talking about these guys, but they're both getting different things that I think are going to help them for London. It's obvious, uh, quarterback that will elevate his game in Kirk Cousins and get

Starting point is 00:07:27 him to the level that we have been waiting for, for two years. And then with Olave, it's the new coordinator, new system with Clint Kubiak coming in and bringing some of that San Francisco Shanahan magic that his father had that they've shared at least with, you know, Kubiak's dad, Gary Kubiak, and Mike Shanahan. But Kyle Shanahan's system hopefully will rub off on what Kliq Kubiak can do. And we saw him have some very good seasons elsewhere

Starting point is 00:07:59 as a position coach as well. I believe he was on the Minnesota staff when Jefferson was a rookie. So there's a lot to like about both those guys in the scenarios that they're in. Derek Carr, obviously not the best quarterbacks and Cousins not 100% healthy, at least, you know, at 35 years old, but I still buy into what these guys have the upside to do. So I'm taking them around too. Okay. I will go with the other third year wide receiver that Jamie didn't say.

Starting point is 00:08:23 Brandon Ayuk's not a stealer yet. So as long as Brandon Ayuk does not become a stealer, George Pickens is, I think, as a top 16, top 17 wide receiver, had a monstrous outing or stretch early in the year when Deontay Johnson was out, had a monstrous stretch late in the year when they had somewhat competent quarterback play. Now I expect he's going to have somewhat

Starting point is 00:08:47 competent quarterback play all season long, and there's no Deontay Johnson. So as long as Brandon Ayuk is not a Pittsburgh Steeler, George Pickens is one of my favorite breakouts. Okay, when we look at Pittman, London, and Olave, let's go to those three. Pittman, London, and Olave, how many of them are you drafting before

Starting point is 00:09:04 Devontae Adams? Yep. Two. Not Pittman for you, Jamie. Not Pittman for me, no. Pittman, London, and Olave before Brandon Ayuk and Debo Samuel as right now with Ayuk still in the Niners. Yep.

Starting point is 00:09:22 London and Olave before the Niners. The Niners before Pittman. Okay. George Pickens or Malik Neighbors? Neighbors. Pickens, and I'm also taking Pickens over Debo, Ayuk, and Adams. Okay. You're very high on Pickens.

Starting point is 00:09:41 Of course, subject to change if Ayuk gets traded there. Okay. You're very high on pickings, of course, subject to change if you gets traded there. Uh, okay. Right. More names or I'll go a little deeper, uh, staying in the third year receiver category, um,

Starting point is 00:09:53 with Christian Watson and Jamison Williams, clearly different levels of what we're talking about from breakouts. But I do think that they could push themselves in the conversation of being must start guys, more so Watson than Williams. But, you know, we saw it last year with Jordan Love. We saw it certainly in his rookie campaign with Aaron Rodgers.

Starting point is 00:10:10 The two games before, Watson had his billionth hamstring injury, over 20 PPR points in both those outings. And this is a receiving core that is very deep, and it's going to be tough for him, I think, if everybody's healthy. And he even stays healthy to maybe stand out consistently. But I still think when you look at the landscape of what those four guys offer, Jaden Reed, Romeo Dobbs, Dontavion Wicks, and Watson, I think Watson's the difference maker of that group.

Starting point is 00:10:37 So I'm hopeful that he stays healthy and can live up to it. And for Jamison Williams, the price tag is easy to take a chance on him. You're talking about a guy right around pick 100 overall. And I think we're going to see the best version of him. I'm hoping we're going to see the best version of him. And so it's been tough to trust the last two years. His role has kind of been limited. But you're seeing, I think, at least from the practice reports that I've watched, practice highlights that I've watched, and things that I've read,

Starting point is 00:11:07 you're seeing much more of a developed Routree. And if that happens for him, while it may come at the expense of St. Brown and Laporta to some extent, I think Jamison Williams is going to push himself into the conversation and be a top 30 guy. Yeah, it's Jamison Williams and another guy I'll throw out there that I think you guys like is Jackson, Smith, and Jigba. They're drafted very similarly. You know, are they sleepers or breakouts for you?

Starting point is 00:11:28 Because if we talk about sleepers, guys like Josh Palmer and Khalil Shakir, and we think they probably don't have, they might have like, you know, number three receiver going to start them as my flex potential, but they're not going to win me my league. Christian Watson, we think could be close to a league winner, I would say. But what about JSN and Jamison Williams? Are they, you know, are they closer to Christian Watson or are they closer to Shakir and Palmer? So I'll take this first. And Heath, you probably have a different

Starting point is 00:11:55 approach on this, but we spend a lot of time and hopefully everybody's been listening for a long time talking about a lot of the same guys And whatever category you put them in, it really doesn't matter. You know, you say sleeper, you say breakout. It's hard to call Garrett Wilson a sleeper. I mean, that's just stupid. And so do you want to say that the price tag for JSN and Jamison Williams makes them sleepers? The price tag for Josh Palmer makes them sleepers? Or do you want to say these guys are going to have career seasons and could work themselves into the starter conversation?

Starting point is 00:12:24 Well, that makes them breakouts. So it really doesn't matter. But yes, usually when the most, I think, appropriate way to look at this is what's the ADP? And that should determine how you view these guys. I just think that we've spent a lot of time saying this guy is going to be X, Y, and Z or the same guys. I'm sorry. They're going to be breakouts. I tried to find a little bit of a different approach to it.

Starting point is 00:12:43 So yes. And with that in mind mind i've got a new breakout i would say they're if you ask are they closer to christian watson or are they closer to khalil shakir and those guys i think they're closer to christian watson but they're closer to josh palmer and khalil shakir than they are to garrett wilson and chris alabe so that might make them sleepers. But my breakout, I think was maybe, I think we did a breakouts list in like February or March. And I had Rushie Rice as a top 12 wide receiver back then. A lot of things happened. And it turns out that maybe not very many of those things matter

Starting point is 00:13:18 because it doesn't look like he's getting suspended. Marquise Brown's got a shoulder injury. Rice has been the clear number one wide receiver at camp. And you can make the argument that having field stretchers like Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown are only going to make things easier and make Rashi Rice more efficient as a pass catcher. You look at his last 10 games last year, 69 catches, 790 yards, and four scores. That includes the playoffs. I mean, if he just does that over a full season, he's probably a top 12 wide receiver in full PPR.

Starting point is 00:13:51 Rice in CBS has an absolutely ridiculous ADP of the end of round seven. You can easily get him in round five right now. I've got a round four grade on him, and he could be, of all the wide receivers we've talked about on this show, he could be the best one. Come back to Rishi Rice,

Starting point is 00:14:07 and I'll compare him to one guy who's basically going back-to-back with him in recent drafts, back-to-back to Rishi Rice, and I'll tell you who that is in a moment. But if you have not signed up for BetMGM yet, now's the time. Use the bonus code FANTASY. You're going to get up to a $1,500 first bet offer

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Starting point is 00:15:22 Can you guys guess who the player is that's back-to-back with Rasheed Rice recently? Recently? Yep. Big breakout potential? Tank Dell. Tank Dell. Who do you like? Who do you prefer?

Starting point is 00:15:35 Rice right now, but they are back-to-back. Rice, but Dell was going to be the next guy I said, and I think Dell is also underpriced. Okay. So these are guys you can get in round five. We love the receiver value in round five. Draft receiver in round five. And I want to ask you about Devante Smith. He's about wide receiver 20 in ADP, getting some great reports.

Starting point is 00:15:57 Hard for me to make a statistical case because it's been the last two years when Goddard and Brown are healthy. He's like a number two, three wide receiver. But I'm hopeful. And when one of them is hurt, he's the number one receiver. So there's that. Jamie, are you drafting Devontae Smith?

Starting point is 00:16:17 Do you find yourself drafting Devontae Smith a lot? More lately. I wasn't so much earlier in the process. Part of that was because a lot of the best ball drafts and analyst drafts, he was going a little bit too high to, he was a little too rich for me, but in a lot of our drafts, I am starting to take him a little bit more because I, and again, I go back to, you know, how I build my teams where it's, I'll probably go receiver, receiver, running back receiver. And that fourth round, I, is a good spot for him as your third guy

Starting point is 00:16:46 because he does have league winning upside. He also has a good floor. And I think it's worth mentioning, and ADP is probably closer to the rankings, certainly for me and Heath when it comes to Jalen Waddell. But when you talk about the three guys that were disappointments last year, Waddell, Higgins, and Devontae Smith, and where they were being drafted and what their situations are for this year nothing has really changed you know the again you could dice it up a little bit

Starting point is 00:17:10 different clearly chase if he's out and burrow being back and higgins with contract and smith with new coordinator but um should something happen to any of the receivers in front of those guys and we've we've we've touched on this a little bit they're not handcuffs by any stretch you're not talking about wide receiver handcuffs. You're talking about starting caliber, wide receivers, 15 point per game type of guys on their own. My goodness. We saw the jets game for Jalen Waddle last year when Tyreek Hill was not there. We've seen it with Devante Smith, the stretches that Dallas Goddard has missed time. We really haven't seen it so much for T Higgins, but it's there. And you saw some of the flashes of it in the, in the preseason game. I guess you go back 2022 when, when chase had a hip injury, saw a little bit

Starting point is 00:17:48 of that for Higgins also. So there's just so much upside with those guys with the floor again, being starting number two receiver. So it's in your best interest to try and get one of those three guys. If you can. What about Jaden Reed? This is a guy that might show up on a lot of breakout lists, but we don't really talk about him that way. I know Jamie and I prefer Christian Watson. Heath, do you prefer Christian Watson to Jaden Reed? I've got Watson slightly higher, but I think the problem with Jaden Reed is that it seems to me that if everybody stays healthy, he's more likely to be worse

Starting point is 00:18:18 than better than he was last year, just because so much of his production was unsustainable touchdown production. He had two rushing touchdowns on 11 attempts, eight receiving touchdowns on 94 targets. And I don't really know if Christian Watson is healthy. We're going to see a big increase in the total number of targets. Now there's some guys I think that are probably kind of like injury based breakout candidates.

Starting point is 00:18:44 And Jaden Reed certainly qualifies as one of those. I had Marquise Brown as a breakout. I guess you have to remove him, but I really felt like he was going to have his best season ever. Will he have his best season ever Marquise Brown when he comes back? That's the problem is he had, if he's not going to play a full season, like when he was going to play a full season,

Starting point is 00:19:07 I think it was easy to make that case that he might 91, a thousand and eight and six touchdowns was his best full season. But like, if we're just going to talk about, he has this breakout stretch. Well, he's already had a stretch of what half a season where he was a top 12 wide receiver.

Starting point is 00:19:22 Yeah. Three times. He's done that. I thought maybe he'd be able to do a little more consistently. His highest finish, Marquis Brown's highest finish per game was 24th and in full PPR and non PPR was like 30th. I felt like he had a pretty good chance, but when I,

Starting point is 00:19:36 when I originally thought that I thought, all right, was she right? It's going to get suspended. Uh, Xavier worthy missed like all of training, all of mini camp. He was hurt.

Starting point is 00:19:44 Uh, things aren't looking nearly as rosy for Marquise Brown. I guess I don't really see him being top 24 per game. All right. I was fishing for some new names. That's it. We can end it there. Any other breakouts? We good? No, I think that

Starting point is 00:19:59 probably covers it. I mean, it's a weird position because it's like there's a lot of established guys that you know that are going to have some big years. And we're seeing a little bit of a change in the guard too. You know, if Adams and Evans and who knows what cup, you know, takes that sort of step back. I do think you can make a case for Malik Nabors

Starting point is 00:20:18 to be a breakout. You know, if you're in the camp of rookies belong in this conversation. One more name is Rashid Shahid, who when we had rich rebar on i think i asked him for his favorite breakout and he i think he said he said rashid shaheed i don't know if he said a sleeper or a breakout but we don't talk too much about him on our show how do you guys feel about him he's more in the josh palmer camp and i think it's very

Starting point is 00:20:40 similar you know could be a big part of their offense. And, you know, hopefully it does something significant. I said breakout, not bark out. I think the last chance you really have, like we could throw some more names out there, is that round eight, round nine range with the last group of the first round and early second round rookies, you get Xavier worthy, Brian Thomas, Ladd McConkie, Roma Dunes, a key on Coleman. Like if you haven't got a young, exciting wide receiver that you think you might break out and you get to round eight, you can grab one or two of them right in that range. All right. Last question here. Two questions.

Starting point is 00:21:25 One, does Terry McLaurin have his best season ever? And two, who let the dogs out? I would not bet on Terry McLaurin having his best season ever. He might. I wouldn't be surprised if he has his best touchdown total ever. Or he has his best yardage total ever i don't think he's gonna do both his best finishes 20 no 22nd per game in non-ppr 20th per game in full ppr that's it for our bonanza at wide receiver one more show we got tight ends

Starting point is 00:21:58 with alfredo brown coming up uh and that's it for Fantasy Football Today. Talk to you later.

Fantasy Football Today - Wide Receiver Breakouts! Year 3 WRs Lead the Way (08/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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