Fantasy Football Today - Wide Receiver Tiers! How Many Have Elite Upside? (07/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 15, 2020

We've got a lot of NFL news (1:30) as a few key defensive players have signed megadeals, Odell Beckham at least entertained the idea of sitting out this season, PHI signed a familiar lineman and WAS lost a potential starting WR. Then it's on to WR tiers (10:50) starting with the elite guys. Is DeAndre Hopkins in this group? ... On to the second tier (16:14) which includes a Rams WR (guess which one!) and an emerging Kenny Golladay. Then we jump to the next two tiers (23:30) which really might be one gigantic tier. How do we separate guys like Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Beckham, Robert Woods, Allen Robinson and more? ... Many more WRs to discuss including possibly the last tier that presents elite upside (30:00). And we've got the #3 WRs (38:05) and plenty more plus a thorough discussion about the Cardinals offense to end the show ... Email us at [e-mail] Nominate us on PodcastAwards! https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup/ 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. All right, what's up, everybody? Welcome to the show. We got wide receiver tiers today. A lot of fun players to talk about, including a really cool stat

that I'd like to talk about with Alan Robinson. He's not been manipulated in any way by me, I promise. Why is Cooper Cup in a higher tier than Robert Woods? Where should DJ Moore be? All that good stuff. Looking forward to this conversation. Have you guys signed your franchise tags? higher tier than Robert Woods. Where should DJ Moore be? All that good stuff. Looking forward to this conversation. Have you guys signed your franchise tags?

What's the deal, Dave? One year deal or long term or what? It's longer than one year, but I'm signed. Okay, good. Good, good. I hope you all are doing as well as Chris Jones and Miles Garrett are doing. They are very wealthy men. And we had to wait three episodes, three episodes this week to bring in Ben Gretsch. But Ben Gretsch

is here. Welcome, Ben. How's it going? It's great. How are you? I'm good. Still recovering from the projections week. Long couple of weeks, but had some time off and enjoyed that.

Shot an 85 this weekend, which was pretty good for me. Very nice. Jamie? Hello. Hi, buddy. Hey, hey, hey. All right. All right. Let's rock and roll. Let's do this. So Chris Jones signed a four-year $80 million deal.

I'm going to spin this fantasy. Any concern that the Chiefs' defense is just going to be so good that Patrick Mahomes is not really going to have to throw that much. Before you say no, last six games of the regular season after that Tennessee game, they didn't do so well and their defense got much better. He averaged 30 pass attempts per game, something low.

He averaged 40 in the first seven games and 32 pass attempts per game in the last six games when their defense got better. Just to bring it up, you guys can quickly say no. Any concern about Mahomes not throwing enough? He just needs five pass attempts for five touchdowns a game, so he's good. We went over this

with 30 fantasy points in those last six. Uh-oh. We went over this in the projections tier. His own efficiency limits his pass volume, which is what happened with Aaron Rodgers throughout his prime. It's not easy to throw 50 times a game when you complete so many first-down passes and complete so many long touchdowns

and don't have to run additional plays. Yeah, also the thing about their defense getting better in the second half, they faced some pretty shaky offenses. Oakland, New England, Denver, Chicago. In the playoffs, Mahomes threw 37 times per game. So that was a healthy number. They faced better offenses there. Miles Garrett signed a five-year $125 million deal.

Odell Beckham didn't exactly commit to playing, Jamie. He did a roundtable and he talked about COVID and sort of accepted that there might... I didn't know if he meant like there might not be football this year or he may not play regardless because of COVID. I interpreted it as the latter, like he may not play because of COVID. So my guess is they're going to...

We talked about this earlier this week, that you're going to probably see several players that may just don't want to take the risk if they have their money secured and any fear of what the virus may be. I don't think that'll necessarily be the case, but hopefully Beckham is out there

as the rest of the players. Odell's an influential player. He could influence other players. Wow, if Odell's an influential player. He could influence other players. Wow, if Odell's not playing, maybe I shouldn't play either. Hopefully, he does end up playing. I'm sure it all comes down to what your salary status is. If you've got to play to pay.

I would think that that would be it. Even if your salary is taken care of, at some point, you've got to care about your legacy and whether or not you want to ring. Money comes first. And if you're really loaded and you just don't have the passion

to win a ring, maybe you're just really nervous about getting sick, then I guess sitting out is where you'll be. Well, I'm already getting extremely angry by what's going on in my fantasy baseball league right now.

Where now people want to redraft. It's a draft that we started. We started it in march and it's not done yet uh and now people want to redraft and it's like hey it took us what four months to get this far or whatever and you think we're going to be able to redraft in nine days are you kidding me because we always do an untimed draft i'm name name name name i'm sick of the Will Brinson mutiny. He is killing. He is absolutely killing the draft. He has probably taken a month to make his picks. He's been on the clock

for five days. He's killing the league and now he's starting a mutiny. Why don't you have a clock? Because they postponed the season for months. So I was like, whatever, let's do an untimed draft. Restart the draft and use the clock. It's there for a reason. Because they postponed the season for months. So I was like, all right, whatever. Let's do an untimed draft. I just put it back on, Dave. Restart the draft

and use the clock. I did. I did. And here's the thing. I sent Will two or three emails. You're on the clock. You're on the clock. And then I put a 90-minute timer on and I sent an email that says, you all have 90 minutes to make your picks. And he still hasn't picked. But instead...

We started the draft? That sounds like a world-class troll job what's that we're starting the draft over no we're not starting the draft no i don't want to but will's gonna get his way this mutiny did anybody pick a player who's not gonna play yeah uh yeah probably but that's unfair that's so yeah but no not if it's david price i mean he's a late pick like none of Posey. I don't even know. Buster Posey probably has not been drafted. There is nobody that good that has said they're not playing. Anyway, I hate Will.

Dak Prescott. So actually, we're recording this on Tuesday, so we don't know everything about the franchise tag. Wednesday is the deadline, so we'll find out if Dak signs a deal. Alshon Jeffrey almost certain to start on the pup list, according to the Philly Voice. Meanwhile, the Eagles re-signed

Jason Peters, who's been their left tackle for a long time. They're going to try to get him at right guard instead of Brandon Brooks, but that's big news. I mean, Alshon Jeffrey, according to the Philly Voice, almost certain to start on the pup list. I don't believe that was for the regular season. I believe that was for the regular season.

I believe that was for the offseason program. And then there was a question about whether he'd take him off before week one. Right. So you can put a player on the pup list when training camp starts.

But they could keep him on there all the way through the first six weeks of the season. Sure. The Peters news is great news. Having that big guy back on the line,

like it gives them a backup left tackle and a starting right guard. Good news for Wentz and Sanders and company. And Jamie always talks about Antonio Gandy-Golden. If you're looking for somebody as a deep sleeper in Washington, Kelvin Harmon out for the season with a torn ACL. He only had 44 targets last year, but he had a chance to start. Safe to say.

We've got to say Stephen Sims' name here, though. Yeah, but he's the slot guy, so I don't know that he was even affected. Sims is better than Gandy Golden. I mean, I've talked about both guys a lot this offseason. So I think, you know, if you're still looking to take a flyer on a Washington player, you take a flyer on Sims first. But this just helps Gandy Golden. So for anybody still doing their rookie-only drafts,

if that's still the case, or, you know, startup dynasty, his value just got a lot better. A lot of people are going to say that Terry McLaurin is going to get a million targets, and he might. He's obviously in good position, but this just further emphasizes that there's a lot of opportunity in Washington, and, you know, I've talked a little bit about Logan Thomas on the pod too,

but I think if he wins a tight end job or if any individual wins a tight end job, there should be plenty of opportunity for a tight end to be decent in this offense, and we have really no idea who it's going to be. Thaddeus Moss, baby. Let's go. Do you think they will be as run heavy as they were last year? They did not throw much.

No. They have 25 throw much. No. No, I mean, we talked about this on the projections pod, but Washington ran fewer than 900 plays. They're the second team since 2006 or something to do that. Miami in 2018 was the other team. So it's been the last two years. They're the only ones over the past decade. Miami bounced back over 100 plays the next year.

And Washington now brings in a new coaching staff in Ron Rivera, and it'll be Scott Turner as his offensive coordinator. It was Norv Turner for the bulk of last season until the last couple games. But, you know, likely a similar philosophy. And Carolina just ran, I think top, maybe, maybe they're like seventh in total place, top, top 10 for sure.

Play volume with a five win team. They played fast. So I think you can have a similar situation to what happened in Miami where they shot back up a hundred plays and it made a lot of, a lot more fantasy relevance for the 2019 dolphins and the 2018 dolphins. It wouldn't be that crazy to see that in Washington with a new coaching staff. Cool. So let's get into the tiers after I just tell you about a couple things.

We're on YouTube, and Ben has the longest beard I've ever seen him have. So, yeah, it's growing in there. Looking rugged. Yeah, golfers don't golf or shave. Anyway, check it out. YouTube.com slash fantasy football today and baseball is set to return on July 23rd so it's

perfect time for you to restart the drafts that you've been doing since March also it's perfect time for you to listen to the fantasy baseball today podcast Scott White Chris Towers Frank Stample and myself on occasion we are done with the position previews today we did sleepers actually you heard we did sleepers.

Actually, you heard on Tuesday, sleepers. Breakouts on Wednesday. Busts on Thursday. Live mock draft on Friday. Everything you need to get ready for a big, big weekend of drafting. And of course, five days a week during the season to help you navigate the season. Check that out.

And if you still want to join a league, you can do it, and you can do it for free. The baseball leagues are free. Check out the commissioner product. You will not regret it. Awesome awesome the best baseball product that you the best fantasy baseball product check it out all right so it will that you were killing him on the show today yeah and you reply back you're a clown refusing to redraft the draft for 75 was done pre-pandemic yeah okay honestly like that's a ridiculous thing to say.

Why are you saying that now? Why are you saying that now? He had four months to make that case and now he's complaining? I would completely reject it. I see Dave is sitting there pretending to sleep.

It's a ridiculous, like, I would love for Will to be on the podcast right now. I would love for him to be on. You want me to get him on? I can't because of the whole video thing.

It would screw everything up. But I would, I would land based him to be on. You want me to get him on? I can't because of the whole video thing. It would screw everything up. But I would land-based him. Let him call in. We have phone cameras. I'm going to kick him out of the league. I'm going to go Heath Cummings on him and I'm going to kick him out of the league. This is awesome.

Which wide receiver tier do you think has the best value? Hmm. Which wide receiver tier do you think has the best value? In Dave's tiers? I haven't studied Dave's tiers closely enough. It doesn't have to be Dave's tiers. Just like where in the draft is the best wide receiver value? Any wide receivers ranked 15 through 30. Yeah.

I'm going to say round four is probably the time where you get really good value because there'll be receivers there that should be able to have a chance to finish top 12. And you're going to limit pick 40 or so. So we're talking about what, like Tyler Lockett, maybe Cooper Beckham. Probably closer to that fourth tier that starts with A.J. Brown. Ben. I, yeah,

I, so you're saying lock. It's a tier ahead of AJ Brown. I love lock it. So you're going to find him higher. Yeah. Well, sorry.

That's, that's kind of how I think it's going to go. He catches everything. He's really fast. That team should be really good this year, but I do think that a lot of those, Lockett might get picked after A.J. Brown, and therefore he'd be an unbelievable bargain,

in my opinion. Okay, is there a tier or a spot in the draft where you think the wide receiver value is particularly bad? Probably round one. I don't know about round one. i i get where the value the value is bad well but you're getting a player that's theoretically safe right like that's that's the whole point of going wide receiver in round one is that you don't want to deal with a running back that might give you a headache you're not sure about miles sanders or joe mixon so you want

to go with something that's gonna someone that's going to be a contributor for your team not to say that they're going to be amazing but Michael Thomas was pretty good last year and Devontae Adams was good when he was playing and Tyreek Hill was pretty good so I don't know if I'd say that round one is both Adams and Tyreek Hill took a step backward and

Julio Jones took a step backward and Michael Thomas was really the only one that took a step forward of the guys that were around one caliber. Juju was terrible because of Ben situation and he got hurt. You know, so. No, I'm not. I think they're all great. They're ranked up there for reasons,

but I just think the word value is the thing you have to take into account. So, you know, you're getting, like you said, Dave, you're getting all these guys that you can get maybe as number one wide receivers and run four. And so the value for those guys is better. AJ Brown could be a number one receiver. Tyler Lockett could be a number one receiver. Calvin Ridley, we talked about his breakout potential. I mean, there's a lot of guys that could be number one caliber receivers that you're getting later. And that's just the, I think the nature of the word. Okay. Name some receivers

that you think you'll find in round six and seven in your draft well i know aj green's got around 680p um i'm gonna guess ty hilton's near there uh i love that round it's the phone about the marquis brown maybe texting receivers they're around the receivers yep digs marquis brown boyd gallop maybe maybe Receivers, yep. Diggs, Marquise Brown, Boyd, Gallup, maybe. Maybe, yep. Deontay Johnson. Yep. What's your point? Back to Christian Kirk. Christian Kirk for me.

You don't like that? You know, that's the range you think is bad value? I think right behind that range, I was going to say. Right after the top 40 receivers or so, when you get back to, you know, Deontay Johnson and Christian Kirk and CeeDee Lamb who kind of close out that tier for me, you have to start kind of reaching, I think. I think that's around where Jameson Crowder starts to go. I just don't think he has anywhere near the upside.

That's where people start to take Emmanuel Sanders, and I've been pretty down on him. I think that's – if you want to talk about a value spot, I think that's the point where receiver's pretty flat after that point. And if you miss out on those top 40 or so, that's where the value is just not very good. You can just wait, and you can find other options. receiver is pretty flat after that point. And if you miss out on those top 40 or so, uh, that's where the value is just not very good. You can just wait and you can find other options.

All right. Find other options. Like hopefully a fantasy baseball owner to replace will PPR tears from Dave. Okay. Dave, the mega elite, Michael Thomas, Devante Adams, Julio Jones, Tyree kill, Dave, the mega elite. Michael Thomas, Devante Adams, Julio Jones, Tyree Kill, and DeAndre Hopkins.

The only reason why I called them mega elite is because I couldn't get away with saying the next tier was elite. But whatever. These guys are superstars. You know what they can do for your team, what they should be able to do for your team. I would say that they all have 9 to ten touchdown potential and anywhere from you know 1 250 yards which isn't that great and that's what i'm thinking about with hopkins all the way up to like 1800 yards which is what julio might be able to deliver a lot of catches in this range as well so truth be told i don't want to spend a ton on this because we had the top five week just a couple weeks ago. We spent a lot on that. But I do want to know, is it Hopkins that jumps out to Jamie and Ben?

I think Dave's higher on Hopkins. In PPR. Yeah, I wouldn't have Hopkins with these guys. I think he's in the next tier. I actually start with Thomas, and then Hill and Adams in their own tier, and then Julio's a part of the next year i actually start with thomas and then hill and adams in their own tier and then julio is a part of the next year really but uh yeah but but hopkins is the one for me for sure that stands out in this i could see the case for julio better than for hopkins okay so the second

tier for dave chris godwin cooper cup kenny god and this is pbr so you see kenny galladay's name in here uh even though he was 65 catches last year, on pace for 70 catches in eight games with Matthew Stafford. Chris Godwin, Cooper Cup, Kenny Galladay, DJ Moore. That's the next group. Godwin Cup, Galladay, and DJ Moore. No Juju. We know Javis Lohan Juju.

No Evans. Seems there's any other names that kind of jump out uh okay no we're some i think we should go around the horn name a receiver that should be in this tier oh juju for sure i mean i would take juju over everybody in this tier but godwin and more yeah juju and evans are the two that that tier that i just referenced starts with julio i still i have in the back end of that tier with everyone else in Dave's tier and Hopkins, except Cooper cup is the one that I would drop out to the next year.

Yeah. I would take woods over cup. How come there's, there's been a lot of cooling on cup. Well, I mean, woods at the end of the season was playing better than cup cup. Wasn't playing as much.

And so, you know, woods just didn't find the end zone, but I think if it's, I think it was like his last seven or eight games, he was on pace for like 118 catches. He would have shattered cup in terms of the reception total. Now the touchdowns is clearly something that's a problem for cup,

but I don't know what's super cup and Tyler Higbee can both be great. So it's going to be interesting to see how the Rams operate and how they use their personnel, especially if ever it's healthy, because if they're going to keep both tight ends on the field, as I expect, Kup is not as good outside. He's better in three receiver sets. You're going to really need, I think, one of Reynolds or Van Jefferson to step up and play big. But if McVay goes back to what was working for them at the end of last season,

Higby will be on the field more and playing more than, or producing more, I think, than Cooper Cup will, and that will benefit Robert Woods based on his role. So where do you have Cooper Cup? I mean, are you super down on Cooper Cup? No, he's still, you know, I don't know exactly where I have him ranked, right around 15, but I would take Woods over him.

I would put Allen Robinson over him too. I think Robinson's got a much better situation for his standing in PPR than cup does based on the reception total. Like to me, Robinson and DJ Moore, if you're going to ask me, I'll throw Juju in there too. Three guys who could challenge Michael Thomas, lead the NFL in receptions outside of the top five guys.

I think those are the caliber of players. Moore's going to see an uptick in targets. He should be great. Juju, if things work out well for him, based on what we saw with a healthy Roethlisberger, he should be great. And then Robinson, you know well for him based on what we saw with healthy roethlisberger he should be great and then robinson you know whether it's foals or trubisky uh the 28th best quarterback and he's tears um i think the the quarterback situation if it's foals uh based on

what robinson has shown us when he's healthy and has competent quarterback play you know he's going to challenge for 100 plus catches because he was right there last year as well. So here's the cool, fun stat about Alan Robinson that makes him, I think, a little tricky to draft. He's had three seasons with between 151 and 154 targets.

And those three seasons have been so vastly different. He has been, in those three seasons, with 151 to 154 targets, 73, 80, and 98 catches. Between 883 yards one year, 1,147 yards one year, 1,400 yards one year, six touchdowns, seven touchdowns,

14 touchdowns, catch rates different. Who is he? He's been just a very different receiver. It's weird to see a guy with three seasons with that amount of targets and to have such completely different years. So would he be in the second tier for you, Jamie, in that tier? I know you just kind of said he could lead the league in reception, but is he a tier two guy for you?

He's a top 10 receiver for me in PPR. So yes, he's in tier two or, you know, might be tier three. I haven't broken it down, you know, where I would cut off tier two, but he's got the chance, like I said, to be a hundred catch guy. I think that, you know, I like Anthony Miller a lot. You know, when Ben was rattling off kind of the cutoff for wide receivers, I still get Anthony Miller after those guys, and I'll take my chances on that based on what his role will be in his third season.

But Robinson with, you know, just a lack of proven talent around him. You know, I don't think Ted Ginn at 34 years old is going to come in and change the dynamic of this receiving court or Jimmy Graham in his 30s as well. So Robinson, again, you know, he's been a victim of bad quarterback play from college through the pros. And so, you know, is Foles on paper the best quarterback that he's ever had? Maybe so. And so, you know, hopefully that connection will be there.

But I think the guy that we saw last year, you know, a year plus removed from the ACL, uh, you know, a hundred percent healthy commanding targets. That's the guy that I'm going to buy into. Not the guy that had the monster season in Jacksonville, because I don't think that's replicable because it hasn't been done very often. But I also think, you know, the down year in the 150 target range is also not the type of guy that he is. Nick Foles has actually had three times where a number one wide receiver has put up really big numbers. Deshaun Jackson in 2013, Jeremy Macklin in 2014, Alshon Jeffrey in 2008. I want to say it was 18.

Now, it hasn't been for full seasons, unfortunately, but he has had number one receivers do great. Dave, talk to me about Kenny Galladay and why he, in a PPR league, is still in your second tier. I think he's got room for his targets to go up. I know we haven't seen it from him yet, but last year he finished first in the league in touchdowns. He finished 7th in receiving yards and

25th in targets. His deep ball efficiency is pretty good. His red zone efficiency is good. They use him in both of those areas. He's clearly the number one A there. And I hesitate to say number one straight out because Marvin Jones is a pretty good receiver in his own right.

But Galladay was still able to put up decent numbers without Matthew Stafford in the second half of last year. And any receiver that's going to see a lot of targets and is good at deep balls and is good in the red zone, that's a winning formula for fantasy. And I also feel like there's kind of a thinning at the position when you go from the elite to that next couple of tiers where those next groups of receivers just aren't necessarily as great as that first group. Right. But I think Galladay still has potential because of the touchdowns that he should be able to deliver to make that final top 10, top eight,

something like that. I still think he can do it. And I still think the Lions are going to throw a good amount. I don't think they want to throw all the time, but I think they're going to want, they're going to lean on Galladay and it's going to be hard for defenses to defend them with all the other weapons they have on the field. And Galladay in the eight games at Stafford played pace for 124 targets last

year and the year before had 119 and 15 games. So he hasn't hit 120 in either year where he's kind of been a full-time player, but probably should have in both years. He's really good. Yeah. Throw him the ball more. All right, so this tier was Godwin Cup,

Gallaudet, Moore. For Dave, you heard a little bit of disagreement there from Jamie and Ben. Let's go to the next tier, the excellent tier. This is Calvin Ridley. Remember, this is PPR. Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans, Adam Thielen, Robert Woods,

and there's Alan Robinson at the back of this tier. Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans, Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, and there's Alan Robinson at the back of this tier. Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans, Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, and Alan Robinson. Ben, what do you think about this tier? It's a good tier. For me, A.J. Brown is in this tier. I mean, for people who are wondering where I slot him in, I have Ridley ahead of him. I have Brown over, and I have Evans a tier ahead of this, but I have Brown over every other player in this tier. I have Robinson just behind Brown and Cup and Woods in that tier who we've

talked about. And then for me, Lockett is actually a tier further back. I don't hate having Lockett in this tier. I can totally see the case. I also have Thielen a tier further back as well. And then the guys that I think maybe are knocking on this tier would be Beckham and Diggs for me, who Dave has a couple of tiers back. Yeah. To be honest, once you get to round three and these wide receivers, maybe late round two, once you get to round three and these start, these wide receivers, maybe, maybe late round two, if you're in like a three receiver league,

but these wide receivers, um, I find it hard to separate this tier. And then Dave's next year is AJ Brown, Juju Smith Schuster. I know Jamie and Ben are higher on Amari Cooper. Um, there and Beckham is in that tier.

I don't know. I could see how every analyst would take that group of wide receivers from 10 to 20 or so in the rankings and have them in different tiers. You know what I mean? Question is, how much of a drop-off is there to those guys from 5 through 10 in the rankings, or 5 through 9?

The Chris Goblins, whoever you like in round two, your favorite guys in round two, Hopkins, whatever. How much of a drop off is there from those guys to rounds three and four? These, this next group of wide receivers, this,

if we make it one big tier where it's, uh, where it's lock it and it's the Rams guys, maybe, and it's Ridley and AJ Brown and Adam Thielen and Allen Robinson and Juju Smith-Schuster and A.J. And I said A.J. Brown, Mari Cooper, you know, Keenan Allen, Odell Beckham. Jamie, what's the difference between those guys and Chris Godwin,

DeAndre Hopkins, guys you might take early in the second round? I think it's either track record or offenses that they play in. You know, so with Godwin, the hope would be is that Bruce Arian's offense doesn't change very much with an improved defense run game and obviously a quarterback change. That Hopkins doesn't lose too much going from Houston to Arizona with a quarterback change and a system change. Like I said, you know, with Moore, with Smith-Schuster and Robinson,

I think you're looking at high volume pass catchers in what could be high volume pass offenses, at least for Moore and Smith-Schuster. And then Robinson just being the go-to guy there, you know, for guys like Ridley and Galladay and, you know, I'll throw in Lockett and A.J. Brown, I think touchdowns are going to be sort of what separates them because I don't think they're going to be high volume pass catchers, but they could be very good, obviously, with yards and their touchdowns. So that's why, for me, they're a little bit lower. But, you know, I think it just comes down to opportunity

for what these guys are going to do in their respective offenses and, in some cases, what they've already done. So that kind of is the way I look at it for those guys separating. I look at catch potential. I think a lot of the guys separating. I look at catch potential. I think a lot of the guys in the third and the fourth tier, if they've got the potential to catch more than 80 passes, I'm concerned about their touchdowns. If they're projected to have maybe 65 or 70 catches,

then I'm expecting them to have a lot of touchdowns. That really seems to be a differentiator for me, but they're all pretty close. I prefer the guys in the second tier a little bit more than the guys in the third tier, and the guys in the third tier just a little bit more than the guys in the fourth tier. But you're right, Adam. Those third and fourth tiers, you could almost jumble them up, and you'd be almost happy to take any one of those guys in that round three call it like between 30th and 55th overall in your draft some of them

won't make it to 55th overall but you get my point there's probably like a solid dozen receivers yeah can go in that range and that you'd be happy to have as a number one, if you had to, but certainly as a number two receiver, you'd love to have. I think a lot of people are going to go round three wide receiver, round four wide receiver, end up, end up with two of these guys.

They can get two of those guys. Right. That's almost the way to think about it. Yeah. When you ask with running back, running back or running back tight end, these are the receivers that you're looking at starting each week. When you asked Adam about the difference between these, that was what I was thinking is that

there isn't a big one. You're right. And that's an astute observation. But the easiest thing to, the easiest mistake to make with that is to think, okay, well, I can just wait because there is a significant drop off at a certain point at receiver. And at some point you transition into players that, you know, like Jamie mentioned, Anthony Miller's a guy who really likes Anthony Miller's good, good player. You can grab later, but, um, it's clearly not anywhere near, you know, the, the caliber of these players.

And there's players I like back, you know, I like Anthony Miller and other guys that I like that I've upside Meikle Hardman, whoever, but those guys are not anywhere near this range. And this is a range where, especially because running back gets depleted so quickly and you get into that dead zone where the risk is a lot greater than the reward for a lot of those running backs in that range. And the elite tight ends are probably off the board. So you're looking at, you're looking at kind of reaching for the upper level of a, of a tight end tier that stretches really far. And the elite quarterbacks are probably off the board in most leagues, unless

you're in, you know, one of our, one of our drafts where they wait until the fourth round. But for the most part, my homes and Jackson are going to be gone. And you hit this range. Like you can load up on multiple of these receivers because it isn't that big of a difference, but I, I want two,

three, sometimes four of these guys on every team. Well, okay. If we go to Dave's fourth tier, that brings us to, I think 23 wide receivers and the fourth tier looks like this AJ Brown Juju Smith Schuster Amari Cooper

Terry McLaurin DK Metcalf Cortland Sutton Keenan Allen and Odell Beckham a mix of of uh more established veterans like Cooper and Keenan Allen and Odell Beckham and then the younger guys like AJ Brown Terry McLaurin DK Met Metcalf, Cortland Sutton. So that's 23 guys. Do we want to have at least two of them on our teams? 23. Sure. Two of these top 23 because the next tier is Diggs, Hilton, DJ Chark,

AJ Green, Devante Parker, Tyler Boyd. I'm wondering if you look at those guys as well well, I'd rather they be my third receiver, or do you want them to be your number two? I think if you're happy with how your team has shaped up through the first four rounds and you only have one wide receiver, then you should be completely okay with getting one of the Hilton, Diggs, Chark, et cetera, that tier. It's not a big tier, but one of those guys to be your number two.

I think they're good enough to be number twos. You'd rather them be in your flex spot. And let's say you're deciding between a tier four guy, which is AJ Brown, Juju, Cooper, McLaurin, Metcalf, Sutton, Keenan Allen, Odell Beckham, or Mark Andrews slash Zach Ertz. Where would you go? I would try and get most of those receivers. Depends what I did in the first three rounds. Yeah. I would consider the tight ends there too,

because part of this is, you know, like you said, we're going to have different arrangements for me. You, you mentioned that round five digs and shark are higher up for me. They're comparable to some of the guys you mentioned higher. And I can go down a couple of tiers in,

in days. He's pretty, at least relative to me, he's pretty low on Will Fuller or Michael Gallup those are guys that I'm fine taking um you know in in that similar range as your number two guy uh well no but I I would I would be able to extend those groupings and probably you know I would want to get three of them by that point in the draft Ben would have had DJ Moore AJ Brown John and Taylor and then he's just taking you know, I would want to get three of them. By that point in the draft, Ben would have had DJ more, AJ Brown, John and Taylor.

And then he's just taking, you know, his, his third and fourth receivers. Yeah. Yeah. I could take Mark Andrews and still make well full on my third receiver and feel pretty good about that team. Yeah.

You could take Mark Andrews to make DJ Charker second receiver, something like that. Um, okay. So any gripes with, with Dave's fourth tier, the very good tier? Brown, Juju, Cooper, McLaurin, Metcalf, Sutton, Keenan Allen, and Beckham.

No, just nitpicking. I'd put Chark in that group. Yeah, I would have Chark in that group. I'd have Diggs in that group. Yeah, nitpicking for me too, probably. Those are all good names. Next round or next group is the good group. It's a good group. T.Y. Hilton, Stefan Diggs, DJ Chark, A.J. Green, Devante Parker, and Tyler Boyd. T.Y. Hilton, Stefan Diggs, DJ Chark,

A.J. Green, Devante Parker, Tyler Boyd. Dave, I noticed you have three players who go by initials here. You have T.Y., D.J., and A.J. Did that have anything to do with the grouping? No. Really? Not at all. I would have Hilton in that other group, too.

I'm nervous about what to expect from Hilton. It's not necessarily even Philip Rivers being there. It's just, how is he going to be utilized? Is it going to be a lot like last year? And if so, does that mean he needs a lot of volume? I mean, just staying on the field is one thing, but like getting a lot of targets week in and week out, I got to make sure he gets it. And we know that Philip Rivers did tend to do that with Keenan Allen is, is Hilton going

to be his version of Keenan Allen? I, I would love to see it happen. And we know that Hilton isn't a massive touchdown producer. So he has to have that volume in order to come through as a surefire number two fantasy wide receiver. Here's a take. I'm wondering when have we run out of wide receivers who have number one receiver, like top 12, upside?

I feel like we're still... I think Char can get there. Char can get there. Diggs can get there. Whether you guys believe me or not, I am very confident in that. Ben, I think they can get there if they throw enough. If they don't throw enough, it's going to be pretty hard. You asked a good question.

I don't want to derail the conversation, but I think we're getting there for sure to your question. I think there's a point pretty soon where we don't really have top 12 upside anymore. Yeah. I was going to say, Dave, this is an interesting take. I'm looking at my tiers and my rankings. Dave has DK Metcalf a tier up from this.

I have every guy in this tier ahead of Metcalf except for Devante Parker. Discuss. I think Metcalf has the potential to finish as a top 12 guy. It would probably mean something bad happening to Tyler Lockett, but the dude's tough to cover. He's got a lot of upside. So I'm kind of falling for him. Yeah, I mean, I think that's fair. My concern was some stats I gave a couple weeks ago, but it was Russell Wilson's accuracy throwing to Metcalf. Metcalf's target accuracy graded very, very highly.

His true catch percentage, his catch percentage on only uncatchable targets, so that controls for other players who didn't have such accurate quarterbacks metcalf's was you know outside the top 100 receivers so and adam you've mentioned before for a lot of people that are projecting metcalf to take a step forward he wasn't like that amazing last year we're definitely projecting a step forward at this point in the draft um and my concern is there's a lot of hope that rus Wilson, playing with a quarterback as good as Russell Wilson, means his upside is massive. And I think that's double counting because they're like, look how good his rookie season was. And now think about how big his upside could be with Russell Wilson.

And I'm saying his rookie season was good because Russell Wilson is so good. And his catch rate wasn't even that great, despite how accurate his target uh his targets graded out in some uh so where's the step forward because like we we already have to acknowledge that what he did last year which was good but not amazing was in large part due to russell wilson i know he's a phenomenal athlete and then you got to think okay what if they add josh gordon what if they add antonio brown because they're talking about those things too. That I think that hurts Metcalf more than Lockett. Yeah. I think that would hurt Metcalf a lot more than Lockett.

There's a lot of people that have Metcalf over Lockett. I think that's a key. Lockett's been his number one for several seasons. And I think that would, that would be a bigger blow to Metcalf's value. Okay. I, I do want to know like why people would take

Metcalf over Lockett I want to I can make the case there's no statistical justification it's like a feeling but the fact is like you could say what you want Tyler Lockett did not have a rookie season that even

came close to DK Metcalf right they're obviously at different points in their career. The end of it was, right? I don't know, but it was at 900 yards, which is a really, really good rookie season. You could say that, but there's just no... I don't think there's any metric that says DK Metcalf was better than Lockett last year, so you

just have to take the leap and think he's going to be better than him this year, which he might be. But not to say that Dave has it that way, because he doesn't. You love Lockett. I just like them both a lot. And Russell Wilson has a lot to do with it. And obviously, that equation changes if Josh Gordon comes back,

although not a lot if Gordon comes back. It changes a lot if Antonio Brown ends up there. But I'm almost counting on Metcalf to be a better route runner and to be a more efficient receiver. The drops are still going to be there. It's something you're going to have to live with, but I think he's going to have a better route tree.

And I still don't see him getting tough coverage because of lock. I don't know about that. Cause Patrick Peterson did shut him down in week 16. Right. So, but not every team has a Patrick Peterson. No, but he has, I think Metcalf has the toughest corner matchups

in the NFL. He's like... Well, he's got two against Peterson and two against Ramsey. That's not going to be easy. It's so much worse than that, too. I don't have them all in front of me, but I just remember him being just the, you know,

I'll tell you who it is if you care. Okay, but yeah, we can get back to that. You want to keep going with the tiers, Dave? Should we go to the next tier? Let's do it. All right, the next tier is Jarvis Landry, Brandon Cooks, Marquise Brown, and Marvin Jones. And they are number three wide receivers

with less upside than the guys in the Hilton, Diggs, Chark, Green, Parker, Boyd tier. So it's Jarvis Landry, Brandon Cooks, Marquise Brown, and Marvin Jones. And I hate using the term less upside with Marquise Brown because Marquise Brown has potential to be matchup proof. He was another

guy when you asked who could be top 12. I mean, it's going to take a lot for him to get there, but man, if he's healthy. You can totally see it. Oh, yeah. I mean, it's going to take a lot for him to get there, but man, if he's healthy, you can totally see it. Oh yeah. I mean, what he showed us in the start of the season and then the way that he played in that playoff game when they were actually chasing points and having to throw what he did at Oklahoma, you know, when he was putting up big numbers there. I mean, look, Lamar Jackson and his offense is going to be what it is.

But if he could somehow be in that 7-8 target range on a consistent basis, that would be magical for what he does. And I know they added a couple of wide receivers this offseason with DeVarne and Prochet, but those guys aren't going to take Marquise Brown off the field or take targets away from him at a consistent enough level. In my mind, I'd like to see him get more targets than Mark Andrews. I don't know if that'll be the case, but if

the rushing changes a little bit and Lamar Jackson has to throw a little bit more, Marquise Brown could benefit in a big way. Could they scheme stuff up for him? Can he stay on the field? If those questions turn out in Brown's favor, he stays healthy for 16 games and the Ravens find a couple of new ways to get him involved in the offense, he could absolutely reach it. So the reason why he's in this tier is because of the fact that he has some injuries to battle with, and it could very easily happen again. He's 165 pounds, and he's playing in the NFL. So getting beat up is certainly

something that could happen to a guy like this. So how many players in this tier, Landry, Cooks, Brown, Jones, Marvin Jones, have big, big upset? It doesn't have to be number one receiver.

It doesn't have to be top 12 or anything. But I could definitely make the case for Jarvis Landry. The guy has gotten a ton of targets in two years in Cleveland. Baker Mayfield obviously likes him.

Baker Mayfield threw to him a ton in the red zone and a ton in the green zone and did not throw to Odell Beckham in those situations. We say it every year, Jarvis Landry constantly beats his ADP. I can certainly make the case for Brandon Cooks. Brandon Cooks has been a top 15 receiver his whole career until last year.

We just made the case for Marquise Brown. I'm not sure we can make the case for Marvin Jones, even though he's finished as a top five or something receiver. His end of season numbers always look good, but it's because, you know, one week he's way up here and then four weeks of being down there. And I mean, there's waiver wear guys

that might have better consistency than Marvin Jones. But Ben, there is a good amount of upside in this tier, right? Do you see it that way or what? Yeah. Marquise Brown's another guy I have ahead of DK. Ahead of Metcalf? What's that that i had a metcalf yeah interesting okay landry's another guy i have one spot behind him cooks is uh not far behind i have fuller overcooks comfortably a whole tier uh dave has it the other way i i understand that i think this is a good spot where the shortened offseason

is going to come into play a little more. You know, Watson has played with Fuller a long time, and there's been talk all throughout their career how much more efficient Watson is when Fuller's on the field, and I think he's going to lean more on Fuller with Hopkins gone than anyone else. He's going to have to take some time to get used to the other guys, I think. And I'm concerned about Cook's concussions and everything else. But get used to the other guys i think uh and i and

i'm concerned about cooks concussions and everything else but yeah the upside's certainly there for cooks uh and then yeah marvin jones is the one like you said that to me doesn't belong here i i'm with you on fuller overcooks uh for almost everything you said um i did uh chris harris's podcast on tuesday night excuse me on monday night. And we were previewing the AFC South and we had a fun conversation about that. And basically everything you said, Ben, I said the exact same thing. The kind of the nature of the podcast

was like a training camp preview. And what things in August will sort of change your mind based on the fact that we're probably not gonna see these guys do very much because of no preseason. And that is one of the biggest storylines for not just the Texans, but I think that division is Will Fuller's health. If Will Fuller is a hundred percent ready to go, um, I may move him up, you know, five or six spots in my rank. You don't have him at 33. Uh, I, I, I think he's got the chance to be another guy that if he plays 16 games, it's the biggest ever ever. But if he plays 16 games could easily be a top 10 guy, you know,

based on what he's shown us with his upside. This is the type of receiver that you take. If you are really secure with your two guys and then you, you know, mix in some running backs, your quarterback, your tight end, and you say, I'm taking a home run swing. That's the guy you take a home run swing on. Like cooks, I think could be similar as well. But again, the rapport, the lack of offseason, that could hurt him.

He's in a healthier situation than Fuller is, even with the concussion situation, because hopefully he'll be fine and he's not dealing with something leading into camp. But I just think that if Fuller hits in a contract year, in a year where Hopkins is gone, with what Watson is going to need from him. He could just be a monster, an absolute, absolute monster. And it pisses me off every time that Ben takes Marquise Brown and Will Fuller ahead of me. I hate it. You know, I never thought about the idea of taking Marquise Brown over DK Metcalf because you don't, you just don't have to, I know how ADP works. And I know Ben probably, even though he has a rank that way, probably wouldn't do it because,

you know, you can wait. Yeah. I just don't draft Metcalf. It is just interesting. It's totally reasonable. Marquise Brown could definitely have that kind of year. If Antonio Brown signs him, Seattle, it's easy. Yeah, yeah. High potential backups. Okay, let's see if we can hit some home runs in this range.

Next tier, high potential backups. Rounds 8 and 9. Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and this is not rounds 8 and 9 in ADP. This is where Dave has them in his tiers. Slayton Shepard, two Giants, Deontay Johnson, Julian Edelman, Jalen Rager, Jerry

Judy, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Will Fuller, Jamison Crowder, Henry Ruggs, and Emmanuel Sanders. It's a big one, so let's reread it. Slayton Shepard, Deontay Johnson, Edelman, Rager, Judy, Lamb, the rookies there, Michael Gallup, Will Fuller, Jamison Crowder, Henry Ruggs, and Emmanuel Sanders as high potential backups. Dave, what is this tier for you?

On your team, these guys should be what? Top of the bench wide receivers, which I know is going to drive Ben and Jamie crazy because they just got done talking about Will Fuller and what he can do. I know that they're fans of Michael Gallup as well, but I don't want to

count on these guys to be week-in, week-out starters. I think especially in the case of players like Slayton, Johnson, and you can throw Will Fuller into this group too. The upside's amazing, but there's obvious downside to go along with it. And I don't want to spend a pick in the first seven rounds on a player like that. I'd rather wait and get one or two of these receivers

in between rounds eight and 10. And some of these guys just don't have like you think about julian edelman and jameson crowder and their upside isn't the same type of upside as slayton and johnson and will fuller but it's their volume-based receivers i think that's what you're hoping for and that's why they're here in ppr tiers they're nowhere near this high in non-ppr i would take Edelman significantly higher in this group just because of the hope of, of what Cam Newton will do for him. But you know, it's a 34 year old receiver that's got injury concerns and, you know, is losing his best friend. So I could see the downside as well. So,

but Deontay Johnson, I would take him over Marvin Jones. I think that's the type of, again, you know, you're looking for upside over sort of a four floor play. You know, you know, Jones should be good. I don't know how consistently he'll be great. He'll have some clearly big games, as we've seen from him. But Deontay Johnson closed last year playing at a high level with bad quarterback play. He should be the number one outside guy if they do what they're talking about doing, you know, with keeping Juju inside. And so hopefully he takes a step forward in his second season with, uh, with Roethlisberger back. The Giants guys are the most intriguing because

I think Slayton has the highest ceiling of the group there, but he probably has the lowest floor. And so, you know, with Shepard and how he played and Golden Tate is, I think, going to be one of the better values on draft day as, as, uh, you know, probably unattractive as it seems to take a 32 year old wide receiver. Um, he performed very well last year in his career numbers. Again, floor is very safe. He only has one year, I think since 2013, maybe that he's been under 13 PPR points for the season. So you kind of know what you're getting and you're getting him in the double digit rounds. But yeah, this is, this is not the best, you know, group of guys. The rookies are intriguing, especially Rager, you know, depending on what happens best group of guys. The rookies are intriguing, especially Rager,

depending on what happens with Jeffrey and Jackson. But I think for me, Deontay Johnson's in a tier above. Yep. I have Johnson, Gallup, and Fuller, as well as two guys that Dave has a little bit lower, Christian Kirk and Debo. They all, for me, round out a tier with Metcalf and, and with Marquis Brown at the top of that tier and Boyd and Jarvis Landry. And,

you know, I mentioned I'm a little lower in Devante Parker. That to me is those guys are all still up in that class of receiver for me. And, and then Edelman is, is not far behind in Slayton. I have lamb is the highest rookie. I think it's interesting that Dave has Rager and Judy ahead of Lamb.

And I'd like to hear his thoughts on that because he also has Lamb ahead of Gallup. So that feels to me like something's a little off with Dallas. There seems to be more upside there for me. But, yeah, I mean, I think that's kind of how I would look at this here for me is like everyone else kind of gets pushed back other than those names that I mentioned, who I have elevated kind of to the tier of some of the names that he has in higher, higher tiers. I'm worried about the target share for, for lamb and Gallup in Dallas. I had a lot of mouths to feed there and, you know, not say that Cooper is the end all-all as their number one receiver but if he ends up getting a little bit more consistent and he continues to see a lot of targets from Dak I think it'll hurt Lamb and I

think it'll hurt Galp the longer where do the where do the 190 targets go because I think for you too Ben like where do the 190 targets go with I think Cobb Witten and and for what it's worth, Tavon Austin. How many went to Cobb? I think it was like 100 to Witten and 80 to Cobb in that range. Yeah. I'm sorry, 60 to Cobb in that range. I would imagine that most of Cobb's targets are going to go right to Lamb because I think Lamb is good to go. Maybe not necessarily as an exclusive slot receiver, but he and Cooper can probably mix and match there.

They can see how defenses match up against them, and then whichever cornerback they want to target, they can go with that. So if Cooper lines up in the slot and the number one corner follows him in, it's going to be Lamb on the outside. And then if Lamb goes into the slot and the number one corner follows Cooper to the outside,

then Lamb's going to get attention there. Whereas I think Gallup is going to stay on the outside quite a bit. That's where he was last year. And as bad as Metcalf's drop rate was, Gallup's drop rate was worse. I think he was either the worst or second worst in that category last year. He was brutal. And I wonder if that weighed on the Cowboys' minds in the draft process and when they had the opportunity to get CeeDee Lamb, they went and took it. I think there's some upside. I just think it's a little cap because i'm not sure if lamb can get to 110 targets you know usually the number i'm looking for is 120 um there's only one receiver that can get there this year and that's rager 110 is really a lot for rookie 120 i mean you

got to you're talking we went over that right right. Yeah. So it happens, but not often. I think these rookies are kind of special, though. Well, so let me talk... I want to talk about the rookies, right? I struggle with the rookies versus the veterans in this group. But we can agree last year was a really good year for rookie wide receivers.

Fair? Let me tell you where these rookie wide receivers finished in PPR last year. And I know Ben will make a point. It's not necessarily where they finished, but the impact they had down the stretch. And that's perfectly fair. But let me just tell you where they finished.

In PPR. Games you're removing for this. What? Which games are you removing? Nothing. This is the final statics. A.J. Brown, 21st. PPR.

Now, all of them were better in non-PPR. They just didn't have a ton of catches, I guess. But Brown was 10th in non-PPR, but he was 21st in PPR. Now, all of them were better in non-PPR. They just didn't have a ton of catches, I guess. Brown was 10th in non-PPR, but he was 21st in PPR. Terry McLaurin was 30th in PPR. Deebo Samuel, 33rd. DK Metcalf... I'm sorry, Adam. You're talking about their total points,

not their points per game. Correct. Total points. DK Metcalf, 34th. Darius Slayton, 37th. Marquise Brown, number 47, wide receiver. McLaurin, Samuel, Metcalf, Slayton, 37th. Marquise Brown, number 47 wide receiver. McLaurin, Samuel, Metcalf, Slayton. They all played, I think, at least 14 games, and none of them finished higher than 30th in PPR. And they all had good seasons.

And my point is, it's really tough for a wide receiver to have a rookie wide receiver to have a really good season. To have a top 20 season, it rarely, rarely season. It just to have like a top 20 season. It rarely, rarely happens. You're talking about AJ. You're talking about AJ green, Julio Jones,

um, those types of guys. And so, yeah, just something to keep in mind, um, with them. What do you make of that?

And one reason we don't see that with rookies though, is a lot of them get brought along slowly. AJ Brown didn't play a full snapshot until week 10. Debo played a lot of snaps in week one, but then he went straight down to 39% the next week. And then he was back, never back up over 80% until week 10. So Debo and Brown are the two definitely that stick out in my mind there that are guys that the vast majority of their production came in the second

half of the season. And that's something where you're not starting those guys in the first half. You're kind of holding them and hoping they come around. That was true of Odell Beckham the second half of the season. And that's something where you're not starting those guys in the first half. You're kind of holding them and hoping they come around. That was true of Odell Beckham in his monstrous rookie season. He was hurt. Even when he came back, he had a couple touchdowns in his first few games, but he didn't have big yardage

until late in the season, until about fantasy playoff time is when it... Right, but I think if he was healthy, we probably would have seen that a little bit sooner. I don't know if it was that long. That was like his best year. But regardless, follow-up question. You've got this shortened, strange offseason. Is that going to hold the rookies back even more?

And should that be factoring in? I think to kind of tie in one of the news items today, we have a couple guys that are stepping into some potentially very good situations. Lamb and Judy are walking into some tough situations because there's crowded receiving course for those two guys. You know, I mean, lamb stepping into this Dallas situation, which, you know, I don't think we mentioned Blake Darwin and how good he could be as the tight end there and all the receivers. And then, you know,

while Judy may challenge Cortland Sutton to be the number one guy, they're still Hamler, they're still fan, you know, and they're going to throw to their backs. So there's crowded situations there. Now you have Rager who could clearly step into a great scenario if Jeffrey's on the pup list and Jackson doesn't stay healthy or potentially gets suspended. And then you have Justin Jefferson stepping into digs

in those 96 targets that are available there. You have Denzel Mims stepping into 98 targets that are potentially available for the Jets, although Brashad Perryman's there. And Gandy Golden now could be a starter for Washington, as Ben laid it out for you. They may be seeing a significant jump in pass attempts. Leviska Chenault, who as Ben will tell me that I keep spelling his name wrong,

he's in a great spot in Jacksonville as the, you know, potential number two guy there. So it's not necessarily you have to look at, and even Ruggs, you know, Ruggs is going to be in somewhat of a crowded receiving core also. You know, it's not like you have to look at, and even Ruggs, you know, Ruggs is going to be in somewhat overcrowded receiving core also, you know, it's not like you have to look at the top three guys and say, I have to get one of Lamb, Judy or Ruggs. It's okay. Maybe I get Ayuk who could be the number one guy there. If Debo Samuel's foot injury is going to keep him out for a significant period of time or Adam's favorite receiver of all time of Jefferson. And, you know, stepping into again, Diggs role, he's competing with guys like Tajay Sharp, who's not going to be somebody who keeps them off the field. Those are the guys for me, at least that I'm going to tend to gravitate toward. Like I'm

not going to take C I took CD lamb in the fishbowl because he was there in like round 10 or 11. Like that was just stupid. So he was my fourth receiver. It was easy to draft, but I took IUK. I took Chanel. I'm pissed off at myself because of my last pick. I took Caden Smith instead of taking a Gandy golden. Then it was like an hour later, the news of Kelvin Harmon's ACL tear. So hopefully when, when waivers open up, I'll get get gandy gold you know how much i like him but um i'll take the the second and third tier receivers rookie receivers more so than the first guys and if i had done that last year i'd be in great shape because i'd have one or two of these guys that we've talked about if you do that most years that's the way it works out i mean you

juju smith schuster um you know it's, it's not necessarily the first rookie he picked. That is great. One thing I want to note on the Beckham season, first three games didn't hit 50 yards, totaled 105 yards. And I know it's just three games, and by his fourth game, he was good. But my point is, this happens,

and DJ Moore's another one I was going to name, and Juju, it is very common that rookies lose about three, four, five, sometimes seven games where they're not really playing early in the season. And then they start playing a lot more heavily. And that's why you're not seeing the big final end of season lines. This was, you know, the major point there. Sure. Okay.

We got to take a break. It's late in the show. We got to take a break. And then we have a couple more tiers to get to here. I was going to read emails. I'm going to save those for Friday. We'll do a mailbag and some other fun late in the show. We've got to take a break and then we have a couple more tiers to get to here. I was going to read emails. I'm going to save those for Friday. We'll do a mailbag and some other fun stuff on Friday's show. But when we come back,

we've got the solid backups, the bench depth wide receivers, and the end of the show. We will talk to you in about 45 seconds. Be right back. Take back your free time with PC Express Online Grocery Delivery and Pickup. Score in-store promos, PC

Optimum points, and more free time. And still get groceries. Shop now at pcexpress.ca. Miller Lite. The light beer brewed for people who love the taste of beer and the perfect pairing for your game time. When Miller Lite set out to brew a light beer,

they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can. They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer. Your game time tastes like Miller time. Learn more at MillerLite.ca. Must be legal drinking age. All right, welcome back, everybody. NPPR, two more tiers. The solid backups.

Anthony Miller, Alan Lazard, Christian Kirk, Robbie Anderson, Justin Jefferson, Michael Pittman, Deshaun Jackson, Stephen Sims, and John Brown. And I think what's fun about this tier is, like, everybody's going to have at least one or two guys in here that they just really like, you know? So Jamie, for you,

it's who of the guys here that I really like. I know you like Anthony Miller. Yeah, it's probably Miller. You know, he, he closed last season playing really well in the games without Taylor Gabriel.

And so, you know, again, I don't think Ted Ginn comes in or Riley Ridley steps up and has that significant impact on what Miller's role should be. So he's entering that third season where I think he's going to take that next step forward. And so for a guy that you can get in the double digit rounds, I'm certainly going to buy a lot of stock in Anthony Miller this year. Dave, who do you love in this group? Miller's one of the guys I find myself gravitating toward robbie anderson a little

bit more especially since i can get him goodness like third to last pick of the draft if he ends up being call him the number two receiver in this offense and maybe that means he's number three in targets behind mcafree and dj moore we know he's got good speed and we know that he can beat defenders deep. He just needs an accurate passer. I don't know if daddy Bridgewater is going to be that guy for him, but I know that Bridgewater can get them on slants, screens, hitches, things that can, that can give him a chance to make a play after the catch.

The kind of thing that Joe Brady's offense is predicated upon. And I think he could probably end up delivering good enough numbers to be a biweek replacement, a number three receiver, a flex option in the middle of the year. I do like him a little bit better in non-PPR because he can make some big splash plays. And I'm just not sure how many targets he'll get week in and week out. But in this Panthers offense, it should throw a lot.

I don't mind throwing the dart at him. And Ben, if you had to pick, say, two guys from this tier? Christian Kirk and who? Yeah, Christian Kirk and? Kirk we haven't talked enough about, and I'd like to get into. But yeah, the other one would probably be Miller. Or Lazard is a guy I really like. I do think his upside's capped a little bit,

so I'm a little bit concerned about that. But I really like him generally. And I just don't know about the offense, and so I'm kind of bummed because I like him as a player. Kirk, when I did Arizona's projection, and I've talked a lot about their tempo was a lot faster than their actual play volume ended up being, I wound up giving DeAndre Hopkins close to 150 targets. I gave Fitzgerald close to 97 targets, even though I have Kirk projected as the number two.

I still had 113 targets for Kirk because this is a team that had two-thirds of their targets go to wide receivers last year. I expect that number to actually rise a little bit because of how heavily they're going to use four wide receiver sets. And obviously they added DeAndre Hopkins. They have more talent at wide receiver. I think they'll be even less likely to throw to their tight ends than they were last year.

And I have the running back rate bumping a little bit. I just have the tight ends being kind of unused. It's Dan Arnold and Max Williams. I don't think those guys are going to be heavily used. My point is I didn't really want to project Larry Fitzgerald for close to 100 targets. I don't know that he's even necessarily going to be healthy enough or that prominently featured at this stage. And yet, even as making it my number three, I had these targets left over that I wound

up dumping onto Fitzgerald and projecting Kirk very favorably. My point is just there's a lot of receiver targets here. People are afraid of Kirk because of Hopkins' presence. And I just think that's wild because Kirk's a very good player. He had a very good rookie year, very good prospect profile. He had a nagging ankle injury last year that he played through. And his efficiency was a lot worse last year. But now people are a lot lower on him this year than they were last year.

He was a really popular sleeper last year. And, yeah, I just don't see it. I don't see why people are so low on him. He hasn't done anything. What's your expectation? Well, but I mean, it's all, it's all like his pedigree. It's not his production. He just hasn't really been productive.

What do you mean? It's not his production produced in college. I don't care what he did in college. He's been in the NFL for two years. I mean, he hasn't done anything significant anyway. He just hasn't been good enough. If you're looking for 10 PPR points, I think Kirk is in the conversation

along with two dozen other wide receivers that we can name for the last four or five rounds on draft day. He's done that in 14 of 25 games. It's that 15-point barrier where, wow, this guy can really make a difference for my fantasy team. He's only done that eight times in his career, less than a third of his games that he's played. So that's some inconsistency that bothered me.

He was a 22-year-old rookie and then had an aching ankle injury last year. He's hit that barrier a third of his games. That excites me as a guy who's going to be a 24-year-old going into year three. What's going to be the excuse this year? Oh, he didn't get enough targets because DeAndre Hopkins is there and because Larry Fitzgerald is still there.

And the ankle injury might have limited him. He and Fitzgerald basically had the same yards per route run last year. I like him a lot, Ben. I think Kirk's got a lot of potential. I understand why people don't like him because he hasn't really been that good for their fantasy teams so far. But it's not necessarily about him not being good. It's about what's he going to do.

And that's what we have to apply to every single player when we're judging them for fantasy in 2020. I don't see a way for him to suddenly break out and be 15 plus in PPR in 40% of his games or even 50%. That would make him amazing. I like Kirk too. I just don't want to draft him at the point where other people who I'm drafting with are going to take him.

I mean, he played through injury last year and he missed three games as well. He was pacing for 133 targets. He was pacing for 873 yards with poor efficiencies. He was much better as his rookie year. And if you look at both years, you'll see that he he was very efficient especially when you look at the depth of the throws he was very efficient on downfield throws in his rookie year he wasn't last year he's about league average through the two years which is great for a 22 and 23 year old rookie to be a league average downfield player and that's kind of going to be his role uh you can you can hopefully

see that he can step forward and be above league average at some point in his career uh but yeah i mean like he's missed games in both seasons too like i get it adam he hasn't put up these numbers but he has had a couple of hundred yard games he has had um you know some some boom performances dave just said about a third of his games he scored 15 ppr points like i said that that excites you do you think he's like deshaun Jackson? Deshaun Jackson, no. Kirk is the guy who had... He'll have these big games, you know, but he'll... I think Fuller is the example,

alongside DeAndre Hopkins, and this is an offense that's going to pass a ton, and his... Kirk's production profile maybe wasn't as good as Fuller's coming out, but he had some extra production in the return game. But Ben, Fuller hasn't been that good. I'm sorry that I keep interrupting you.

I'm just, do I have to sort of end the podcast? That's why. But you and I love Will Fuller, but so much of it is like what we think he can do. And I understand why people aren't as in love with Will Fuller and Christian Kirk because they're basically just going off of what he has done and I don't think that Kirk's resume

is that good so far. That's all I'm saying. Yeah, he's missed plenty of games. Who do you think has the higher percentage of games with 15 plus PPR points between Fuller and Kirk? It might be Kirk.

Fuller's at 26%. Yeah. So Kirk's only 26%. Yeah. So Kirk's only played 25 games. Yeah, he hasn't done a ton. I'm not saying... I guess what I'm trying to defend is you're acting like he's done nothing. He has 1,300 receiving yards in 25 games. That's not nothing. I mean, he's been a little...

I agree. He's clearly been a little bit more efficient than Fuller. Technically, he's at 32%, but I don't think either guy has set the world on fire and there are reasons to believe that they won't set the world on fire but if you have to make the argument for one it's fuller yeah i mean both are priced where um you're right there could be reasons to believe that they won't break out but both are priced where you don't have to pay like for that next but i don't know. I've seen Will Fuller go

top 75. He should. He's got a chance to be the number one guy. He's got a chance to be the number one guy on his team and Christian Kirk has no chance unless Hopkins gets hurt. The whole preamble to my Christian Kirk point was that even not

as a number one guy, there should be a lot of wide receiver targets in a team that should throw more and throw to that position almost at the highest rate in the league. How many passing yards do you think for, for Murray? I only have about 4,200 and I only have cricket 940 receiving yards. It's not like I have them projected for this monster season, but he's an easy value at ADP for me there. I think the thing that concerns me for the Cardinals is,

is what the final three games were when Drake was rolling. You know the thing that concerns me for the Cardinals is what the final, you know, three games were when Drake was rolling, you know, if that run game gets going a little bit, then I don't think we're going to see the same type of pass volume. So I don't see Hopkins. I understand why you project that way. I don't see Hopkins at one 50. I think he's going to be closer to 130. And so I think that just lowers the ceiling for the targets for the other two guys. The one thing about Fitzgerald is he's, you know, 37.

I just did, you know, because of our podcast Friday, I did this whole thing of looking at wide receivers, 30 and older. So I've been looking at these numbers for receivers in this range and that age range, 30 to 37 from 2010 to 2019. There's only been two guys that have been productive at 37 years old in this span. One was T.O., his final year of his career in Cincinnati in 2010, and the other was Steve Smith, the final year of his career at 37. Fitzgerald certainly fits the profile of those two guys as, you know, Hall of Fame caliber receivers, but clearly we've seen him slow down. The one thing, though, it's funny, Ben, because your target projection would be the first time that Fitzgerald has finished under 100 targets in his career if, in fact, he were to get, I think we'd say 97. So yeah, 97 would be the first time him getting less than 100 targets.

And as bad as he was last year, factoring in Kirk missing the three games with the ankle injury, he still led the Cardinals and targets catches receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. So I don't know if he's going to completely go away. But, you know, you're going to obviously favor youth as I think most of us will. So it'll be fun to see how Fitzgerald Hopkins and Kirk factors in. It's kind of the reason why I'm a little bit down on Hopkins because I don't think Fitzgerald goes away. I do think Kirk is going to be a little bit better than he was last year. And I don't think Hopkins just comes in and plays at the same level that he did in Houston. Yeah. My projection is kind of a hedge.

I agree with you. Like if Fitzgerald's healthy for 16 games, he probably gets over 100 again. Just because, again, I think... He's made 16 games in his career. Yeah. But the start of what you said, the concern about the age and the few guys who've been productive, there's got to be a little bit of concern

that if he misses time, and that was part of my point too, is if he does, now Kirk is a very prominent role in this offense again. And they threw to him a ton last year. So, you know,

I'm enjoying this discussion. Let's keep it going. Just one more for a little bit longer. Um, 4,200 yards for Kyler Murray would be pretty damn good. Deshaun Watson's never done that. Russell Wilson's only done that once. And I always bring up the point that Russell Wilson has never given us two

top 24 wide receivers. I also understand that Christian Kirk is not being drafted anywhere near 24th, but if you're just talking about upside, I think it makes sense to really, when you're looking at late round receivers to target receivers who are going to be on teams that are going to throw for more yards. And Arizona is probably not going to be that team.

Why? Wait, whoa, whoa, whoa. Because he's rushing. Now I've lost you because I was with you. Yeah, because the rushing quarterbacks typically don't. I guess they would just have to run. No, Watson and Wilson are completely different offenses. This is not a parallel that I think you can make.

But he runs for so many yards that it's just, it would be really hard for, like, look at all the Russian quarterbacks. They just don't throw for those amount of yards. He would have to do it better than any other quarterback. Cam has never done that.

Russell Wilson, one season. Deshaun Watson has never done that. Obviously, Lamar Jackson didn't even come close. Josh Allen hasn't even come close. I just don't think mobile quarterbacks get to 42, the very mobile quarterbacks

get to 4,200 yards. But this is an offense that, again, was fourth in situation neutral pace last year. think mobile quarterbacks get to 42 the very mobile quarterbacks get to 4200 yards but this is an offense that again was fourth in situation neutral pace last year they they ran uh they ran their place quick they ran it up a fast up temple style i do agree with you the rushing makes it hard to do that's not something that you're wrong about or i would disagree with but i think um you know maybe newton's one where where i can't really justify it, but Watson has, they've, they've never really played that type of style necessarily. They do when they're behind Wilson,

definitely not a totally different offense, pretty much his entire career, Josh Allen, same deal. A lot of those teams, I think they're, it's more about that. Their,

their, their identities have been defense and ball control. That's not what Arizona is. I got to go fight with Brinson. I'm enjoying the hell out of these emails. Oh, my gosh. One person called the other one an a-hole. The other one called him a moron.

This is getting fun. I got to go. I'm so bad right now. Dak is the one I should be thinking of. Dak's like a 250 to 300 rushing kind of guy, I think. But yes, he did just throw for 4,900 yards. He's a great example. I think, Ben, I think if you like Christian Kirk this much,

then Kyler Murray should be your QB3. Is he? Yeah, he actually is right now. There you go. Makes sense. It's close. All right, I'm sorry for hijacking that conversation and for being mad at Will, but Will sucks

and we'll talk to you all on Thursday with the tight end tears here on Fantasy Football Today. Appreciate it. It's Dave, Jamie, and Ben. Go win your league, everybody. See ya.