Fantasy Football Today - Workhorse RBs Who Might Not Be Very Good (05/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 19, 2020

We love touches for RBs, but what if those guys aren't very good anymore? We're evaluating Le'Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, David Montgomery, James Conner and Leonard Fournette. First, we have some news (4:55) on Ben Roethlisberger and Nyheim Hines, among others ... Asking key questions about these seven RBs (11:15) like who gets the most carries? Most catches? Who has the most upside? Most downside (17:35)? ... Finally, we take a closer look at each RB and when they might get selected in Fantasy drafts (26:00) and sum it up with final thoughts (35:00). When it's all said and done, which of these guys do we want on our teams? ... Email us at [e-mail] and tweet us with #AskFFT 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Pop quiz hot shot.

It's round three or four, maybe five of your fantasy drafts, and you need a running back. You'd like a little bit more security there. So you're looking at a guy who's going to get a lot of carries for his team, but his team might not be very good, and he might not be very good. What do you do? What do you do? Probably draft him.

You think so? Probably. Well, it depends on what I've done with my first four picks. Well, okay, fine. What if it's round four? What if it's round four and it's Le'Veon Bell or Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley? Do I have any running backs on my team already?

You have one. Then I don't feel like I have to take one of those guys. That's what I do. Okay, hot shot. Heath, what do you do? Hot shot. It depends on who the player is, because some of these guys That's what I do. Okay, hotshot. Heath, what do you do? Hotshot? It depends on who the player is. Because some of these guys that you're not sure if they're any good, I'm pretty sure they are good.

I think you're not so sure about who's going to be a workhorse or not. But yeah, I might take them. And Ben, before you say what you're going to do, thank you for coming on. This is so nice of you after what happened last time. It's just really an honor to have you awake and on the show we're bed grudge everybody yay yes yeah uh you know we're recording in the afternoon today so that's good that's helpful yeah ben overslept last week which is understandable he's on the west coast and we mean, 530 alarm for every show.

Missed the first one in a year. It's okay. You know what? It was an off-season show. You're allowed. So the theme today, running backs who aren't very good, who might not be that good, but are going to get a lot of work. And the ones that I came up with were

Le'Veon Bell, James Conner, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, David Montgomery, and Leonard Fournette. And thanks to Heath for making me include David Montgomery. We don't know how good these guys are.

We don't know where they are in their career, if they're over the hill or not in some cases. Ben, I assume you're not going to draft any of them. Yeah. We can move on. Wait a second. Yeah.

So, because Ben's not going to draft any of them because he doesn't think any of these guys are any good? Did he even listen to the full list of names? Because some of these guys could be pass catchers. Yeah. I think, um, James Connor could be intriguing with the recent comments that he could be

their lead back. I think David Montgomery might actually wind up being a little bit undervalued. Um, David Johnson at the right price maybe, but this for me is a lot of guys that are on Todd Gurley, maybe at the right price as, for me, is a lot of guys that are... And Todd Gurley, maybe, at the right price as well. But it's a lot of guys that are going in that running back dead zone

that I researched and wrote about last year. And they're quintessential dead zone running backs. The ones that do actually tend to succeed in that range typically are younger backs. You just don't see a lot of backs get it back later in their career after they've lost it. Okay. So I'm looking forward to breaking these guys down. Heath, I said Le'Veon Bell, James Conner, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, David Montgomery, Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette.

Are any of those guys good? Well, listen, we know that several of them have been good. A couple of those guys were inefficient last year. I think it would be wrong to say Melvin Gordon's not good. Sure, he had a bad YPC for a couple of years. Four or five years, under four yards per carry. But I don't think... Sure, he's good. Are any of these guys great?

Probably not. like sure he's good are any of these guys great probably not but i think i think most of them are still above average running back talents in defense of gordon's ypc they were like the worst in the league at running up the middle on first and 10 in obvious run situations for a couple years of his career and he's always been a good pass catcher i i tend to agree with heath that he's good i'm more concerned about his offense and the competition in his backfield yeah yeah i'm not sure the that melvin gordon fits into the potential workhorse right but i think he'd be pretty close to it they made a concerted effort to get him they obviously didn't like certain elements of philip lindsey's game He's a better pass catcher than Lindsay. I think that goes without saying.

I think he could end up in a workhorse role by October. So that's all coming up soon. Let's do some news and notes real quick. Ben Roethlisberger posted a video of himself throwing to teammates. He only played in two games in 2019, but in 2018 he had basically his best season number three quarterback in fantasy 5129 yards 34 touchdowns and he even threw in three rushing touchdowns in 16 games so this is good news but not enough yet on roethlisberger right i'm just

really glad that juju shared the video because if he hadn't, nobody else would have seen it because Ben Roethlisberger blocked everyone else on Twitter. I think it's a positive. Yeah. I mean, you can't really tell how Roethlisberger is doing other than he shaved his beard. But the fact he's out there throwing the ball with

teammates, it's not bad i i actually know someone who may have been out there that i could ask oh and in may in may you know we're three and a half months from true yep week one so the fact that he's already throwing you know he heard it early in the year last year he's already gotten through the hard part of his rehab we'll have plenty of time to see how he's doing in the next couple of months and yeah i'd say it's pretty promising as well green bay head coach matt lafleur is super impressed super impressed with former cfl wide receiver reggie bagleton and i was trying to figure out how to pronounce his name i looked at some youtube highlights from his cfl days which of course is canadian football

and you got the announcer calling him bagelton but i'm wondering if that's kind of a canadian thing you know like a but i would love for his name to be pronounced bagelton that'd be a lot more fun for team names and stuff like that it'd be a lot of fun if his name actually got pronounced what do you mean oh you mean if like he actually does something if someone says his name during an nfl broadcast this season i i love the fact that green bay didn't get any receivers in the draft got criticized for it another talking up their cfl player who is a made-up player right reggie bagleton you made this up right not no i did not but the way Ben says it does kind of sound like Bagleton, so I like that. Frank Reich sees a lot of catches for Naeem Hines.

And Reich is also optimistic that Phillip Rivers is going to be on the team for more than one season. But he really seems to like the fit of Rivers and Hines. Hines had 63 catches as a rookie, 44 catches in his 2019 season. Can he get 60 catches, Naeem Hines? No. Yeah.

I think he could. I don't know if you should draft him to get that. And Dallas linebacker, Leighton Vander Esch. Great player. Neck surgery last year says he's feeling great. That's awesome news. We hope to see him back.

All right. Let's, let's get to these running backs. First, I want to promote a couple of things. You can ask Alexa to see him back. All right. Let's get to these running backs. First, I want to promote a couple of things. You can ask Alexa to play FFT. If you have a smart speaker at home, if you have Alexa, start and stop FFT episodes with your voice.

So just say, play fantasy football today. And it's not just Alexa. There are other smart speakers as well. So we're there. And that's an easy way to listen to us. And I told you we were going to do Twitch on Tuesday night, but I was wrong. I was lied to by Ben Schrager.

He's a jerk. He set me up for failure, but next week we're coming back better than ever on Twitch with poker. We're gonna be playing some poker and talking some football and that's gonna be awesome on Twitch. So our Twitch channel is twitch.com slash FF today. We're going to play some poker next week. No Twitch this

week. Poker next week on Twitch. And maybe we'll make Schrager do like some push-ups. He's probably good at that. Some push-ups? How many push-ups are you going to make me do? Six. As many catches as we think Naeem Hines is going to get. Thank God it's 58.

Send in your projections. All right. Let's get to it here. So Le'Veon Bell was number 21 in non-PPR, number 16 in PPR. Here is a mind-blowing stat. I looked at the last five years and running backs who have had 64 or more catches. Why did I pick that? Because Le'Veon Bell's been on pace for 64 or more catches five straight seasons. So any running back that's had 64 or more catches in the last five years,

there've only been five of them who have finished outside the top 12 in PPR. And all of them were third down backs except for Bell last year. He was the only one who had more than 67 carries. Basically, if you get 64 catches or more, and you don't finish as a top 12 running back in PPR, you're Jalen Richard or Theo Riddick or James White or something like that. So that's how bad he was with his carries last year

and his lack of touchdowns, Le'Veon Bell. James Conner didn't exactly get a fair shake last season. Todd Gurley was a top 14 running back. I don't know how that felt for his fantasy managers, but he finished top 12 in non-PPR, 14th in PPR. Scored a bunch of TDs. He did. He scored 14. David Johnson goes to Houston. The last four seasons, 14th in PPR. Scored a bunch of TDs. He did. He scored 14. David Johnson goes to Houston.

The last four seasons, Houston's lead running back, whether it's Lamar Miller or Carlos Hyde, has finished 16th, 14th, 22nd, 23rd in non-PPR, 18th, 16th, 23rd, and 31st in PPR. And they've never scored. This is crazy, too. Houston's lead running back these last four years never scored more than six touchdowns.

That's rushing and receiving combined. David Montgomery, 242 carries. In the last three seasons, the Tariq Cohen era, Chicago's lead running back has had 276, 250, and 242 carries. You got Melvin Gordon going over to the Broncos, who actually have been more run heavy than the Chargers over the last five seasons. And that's the Melvin Gordon era.

And then you got Leonard Fournette, who had 265 carries in 15 games. He also had 76 catches. He was 13th in non-PPR. He was 7th in PPR. But again, how did that feel for the fantasy managers, especially non-PPR? Did you feel like you were getting a reliable running back?

I'm not sure. And what can we expect this year? So here are some questions about these running backs. Who gets the most carries in this group? Fournette or Montgomery for me. I have Montgomery currently. Just edging out David Johnson, Fournette, Bell, Gurley. They're all pretty close.

Gordon and Connor are a ways back, but I'll probably readjust Connor again soon. What do you have Connor at? Just curious. Like 220, I think. And that's over 16 games? Yeah, it's all I project. You don't ever take out for injuries, right? Okay.

So they're all north of 220 yeah and are they all under 300 yeah i've got montgomery at 265 though i do think it's interesting the first six of the weeks of the season last year they did some weird things with their running backs they tried the cordero patterson experience they had the mike davis running the football for a game or two. From week seven on, I believe, maybe it was week eight on, the last eight or nine games of the season, Montgomery was on pace for about 300 touches. Who gets the most catches out of these running backs? I think Le'Veon is kind of the easy answer here.

Yeah, I've got Le'Veon probably projected for 15 more catches than anybody else in this group. I'm not sure there's another guy on here that could even get to 45 catches. Oh, Melvin Gordon. I've got Melvin at 52, and I think Gurley could get to 50 as well. And David Johnson. I mean, we know that they don't throw to their backs as much. Well, not with Duke there. What about Duke? Yeah, no, I understand that, but they also don't throw to their backs as much. Well, not with Duke there. What about Duke?

Yeah, no, I understand that, but they also don't have receivers. You want a gross stat? That's true. They've got a ton of receivers. Well, yeah, they have a bunch of mediocre ones. If they all get hurt, then David Johnson's got a chance to get to 45 or 50 catches. Houston's running backs have combined for 54 catches per season in the Deshaun Watson era. Yeah, well, in the Bill O'Brien era,

no running backs had more than 44 catches. That was Duke Johnson last year. Right, that was all running backs combined, not just one. It's the highest pass catcher. That's all of them. So David is going to split those 54 catches with Duke. I think there was four last year, though. What? Four what? More catches last Duke. I think there was four last year, though. What?

Four what? More catches last year. Last year was the first year with Duke, right? Yeah, he had 44. Maybe not. Pass catching backs do impact these trends a little bit. When Christian McCaffrey went to Carolina, I remember I was

really concerned about Kim Newton's history. But then he started throwing to Christian McCaffrey a ton. They just brought in David Johnson. They're paying him a lot of money. I don't think they concerned about Kim Newton's history, but then he started throwing to Christian McCaffrey a ton. They just brought in David Johnson. They're paying him a lot of money. I don't think they're only going to throw to him 30 times. And Johnson, I didn't even realize this, David Johnson, he is like the man when it comes to yards per catch. Every year he's over 10. Yeah, his average depth of target is usually pretty high it's not for most backs most backs are right around the line of scrimmage their average depth but johnson actually gets out routes which i think could happen in houston that's why i was referencing the receivers

okay who has the most upside in this group hmm could it be four net just because you just because Doug Marone says, let bygones be bygones, let this dude run? He probably has the greatest opportunity. None of us want to draft him based on the amount of work he had last year, the positive touchdown regression. Everybody thinks that he's kind of the odd man out eventually in Jacksonville. But I kind of think it's him.

Like if there was never a rumor of the Jaguars trading Leonard Fournette, I'm pretty sure he'd still be ranked in my top 15 running backs. Yeah, I think it's got to be Fournette or Bell because either Fournette or Bell could have 250-plus carries and 60-plus catches. They could have just an enormous upside with that type of volume. I know they weren't, especially Bell, wasn't efficient last year, but if a guy's got a chance at 310 touches, he automatically has enormous upside. I question that.

What is enormous upside? Well, I guess I think that running back efficiency is less about running back, and it's not particularly stable over a year-to-year basis. So Le'Veon could average four yards per carry this year, and it wouldn't surprise anybody. Sure. Well, all of a sudden, we're at 1,100 rushing yards.

If you get to 60 passes at seven yards a pop even, we're at 1,500 yards already. Right. But remember, he does have Frank Gore. What's that? He does have Frank Gore there.

Yeah, that's kind of scary. That scares me. Not that Gore's good, but you know Gase likes him, and Gase used him too much two years ago in Miami. What about James Conner? How does James Conner not have the most upside? He was a top eight running back two years ago, and I'm not sure how much his situation has changed.

I think he's up there as being someone who has the most upside. Yeah, Samuel worries me there, just because Frank Gore might take a bunch of first down carries away, but they could make the stupid decision to throw the ball to Jalen Samuels 50 times again. And it's not just Samuels. In fact, they didn't even mention Samuels. Tomlin was just talking about the depth of his running backs. He mentioned Snell first, and then he mentioned McFarland. And McFarland can catch the ball out of the backfield.

I think he can do it. They were talking about that last year too. And when push came to shove, I mean, I went back, I looked at every game that Connor played. Well, the first seven, I guess, before he got hurt. He dominated carries. He dominated carries. He basically dominated catches,

except for one game where he and Jalen Samuels both had eight catches catches that's when they ran a bunch of wildcat because their quarterbacks were hurt and it was actually uh like i think four of samuel's catches if i remember correctly were the the jet motion where connor was the one who actually theoretically passed it it was the tip pass he dominated and he dominated carries inside the five-yard line. It was BS last year. It was James Conner's backfield. Not to say it'll be the same this year, but they said the same stuff last season,

and it did not really play out. All right, who has the most downside? They all have a ton. So this concept of upside and downside is why I don't target these types of backs. And I've said this before on this pod. This is the range of running backs where I think you – and this is why I was questioning Heath's comment on Bell's upside. It's where I think you have kind of small upside.

You're talking about beating ADP, but I don't think that's really worth the risk when all of these guys have huge downside. Most running backs do, but a lot of these guys are old and have injury histories and i i want to make picks where my my range is like a small downside to adp and a huge upside like you guys don't like where i take aj brown in large part because um you know he looks like he's not going to be able to get enough targets to meet that cost but he at worst he's a small loss and at best he's a huge win and i I think that range is really important. And this type of running back is the inverse of that. These guys all have massive downside, it might be.

Yeah, I think that just has... We aren't going to turn this into an A.J. Brown argument. But him in the fourth round, he has significant downside if he's just a good receiver and still gets 90 targets. There's no way he's getting 90 targets, but we won't get into A.J. Brown. He's a lock for 110, and we can get into that another time. Yeah, I'm sure we will. I have no doubt. Dave, who has the most downside?

I almost think we should discuss it and come to a consensus conclusion because everybody on this list has some serious downside. I would... I feel like I'm throwing a dart on this one and I really don't like it because he's the youngest guy in the group, but I think David Montgomery could be it

because if he gets off to a cold start in Chicago, I don't see the coaching staff sticking with him. What do they do? Who do they go to? They go to Tariq Cohen and they start throwing the ball more. They don't go the coaching staff sticking with him. What do they do? Who do they go to? They go to Tariq Cohen and they start throwing the ball more. They don't go to Tariq Cohen for 200 carries, though. No, they can't do that. Well, what do they do if David Montgomery gets hurt week one?

Well, now he's not available. Oh, he'll get hurt. No, no, no hurt. But if he stinks, if he's averaging three yards per carry and he's not providing anything in the passing game, then I think the coaching staff, which is desperate to win, can't afford to keep him. They can't afford to keep feeding him carries. But he wasn't worse than Tariq Cohen last year running the ball. They just couldn't run the ball.

I don't know if they necessarily gave Cohen a real chance to run the ball. But he's like 5'6". He's way more explosive than David Montgomery is. But he's a role player. He's never going to be a 15 carry back. He's a scat back. You use him on the edges. You can't run him in the eight gaps.

He'll get destroyed. So doesn't that – okay. So that's a thought on David Montgomery. Who else? Who else might have the i mean for net obviously dude we jaguars hate him with every single guy on this list well the jaguars don't like for net so there's a chance he gets traded or that might be good for him i mean it was probably connor before these recent comments that he's going to be their lead back because they have a deep backfield and there was some thought that they could rotate

more i think the rest of these guys are pretty comfortably the lead backs in their backfield i didn't feel as comfortable with james garner but now i i do and and i don't know if it's him but i if you're saying throw out injuries like who has the the biggest workload risk i don't know i i would say two names that i'd put at the top one One, Melvin, just because I think Phillip Lindsey and Royce Freeman are the best competition any of these guys have for actual touches. And then also I'd say David Johnson, just on the risk that they give him the Carlos Hyde role and Duke Johnson keeps third down. It's so funny how we could all look at these,

what do we have, seven running backs? Bell, Conner, Gurley, Johnson, Montgomery, Gordon, yeah, Fournette. Seven running backs and just see things differently, you know? I mean, at this point, how is Royce Freeman competition? Why would he have a role? He's a better pass protector than Phillip Lindsay. But he's not a better pass protector than Melvin Gordon. And he's cheap.

He's not a better receiver than Melvin Gordon. That's got to be Melvin Gordon's role. Yes, I agree. Yeah. But I'm not even disagreeing with what you said, Heath. That didn't really occur to me with Royce Freeman. I guess I disagree with that part. But Phillip Lindsay, you're absolutely right.

Well, he's the best third running back on any team. He is. And Lindsay's the best second. Yeah, probably. Yeah. I don't see who else it would be. Well, I mean, Kareem Hunt would probably

have something to say about that. On the guys we're talking about. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, so. You know, Le'Veon, you could also make the case for his downside. He's probably going to lose 10 carries a game to Frank Gore because Adam Gase is nuts.

And I think Gurley, we can't write that off either. They've never really committed to a number one back, even though we don't know who his backup is going to be. It could be any of Ido Smith, Quadri, Ollison, or Brian Hill. But just because we can't put our finger on who that is, it seems pretty likely that somebody is going to be involved. Oh, yeah, I'm just assuming that's the case. That's why I didn't say Gurley for the upside. I don't think Gurley has much of a chance to get more than 250 touches. Does he have a chance to average four yards a carry?

Sure. All these guys do. Does he have a chance to get 10 touchdowns? Yeah. Yeah. How many other running backs on this list can we say that about? I think there's maybe two. 10 touchdowns.

That's why you don't draft any of them. Maybe three. Well, you say you don't draft any of them, but if I told you they were going to do what Todd Gurley did last year, which was like 3.7 yards per carry, but 14 touchdowns because he gets all the goal line work, and he didn't even have that big of a role. I mean, he had— Would you be thrilled were people i mean when would you take that player that's my question second round what yeah no he was a bust based on where he went a small bust but and i was

going in the fourth when would you take him when would you be comfortable taking that last year's edition of todd girley when should he have gone i'm just i i mean probably in the fourth or the fifth or whenever you know like because he could have gone I'm just I I mean probably in the fourth or the fifth or whenever you know like because he could have gone higher than that then if you knew you're getting it and you know that you're like that's the hypothetical game we're playing like that's probably yeah okay fine Dave I sorry you're probably right maybe I would take him even higher if I was that confident that there was no risk and I was going to get 14 touchdowns out of my running back sure but like I I want guys that are going to actually win leagues like and I was going to get 14 touchdowns out of my running back. Sure. But like, I want guys that are going to actually win leagues.

Like, and I know that's easy to say, but this is what he did last year. My point is like it, I don't think you would necessarily, what I was pushing back on is the comment that he would be, you'd be thrilled to have it. I don't know that I'm thrilled to have what he did last year on my fantasy

team. My guess is, should I remind you of what he did? The manager who won his league probably didn't do it because of Todd Gurley. No, but he finished as a top 14 running back in PPR. He finished top 12 in consistency. He had eight games with at least 15 PPR points.

He played 15 games. So more than half of his games he came in for at least 15 points. So he had eight games with at least 15 PPR points. He's a terrific number two fantasy football. But eight other games, he didn't get to 15 and did nothing for me. He had one, two, three single-digit PPR games. And he also had one, two, three 10-point PPR games. Yeah.

But he also caught 31 passes. So Devontae Freeman was like a beast in the passing game last year. So I don't know what his role is going to be. I mean, I think for Gurley, it's going to come down to touchdowns and catches. And I don't know what to expect because Freeman, like Freeman in his last three healthy seasons has averaged less than 15 carries per game. And last year it was 13.1. So I don't know that you can expect more than 15 carries per game. And last year it was 13.1.

So I don't know that you can expect more than 15 carries a game for Todd Gurley. What are the catches going to be like? Because Freeman last year averaged 4.2 catches per game, and usually he's in the 3-4 range in catches per game. Gurley was so bad catching the ball last year. I think his receptions go up. I think there's a real chance they go way up.

He was better out in space than he was between the tackles anyway. The Rams were dumb not to use him more as a pass catcher. He was horrible, Dave. He was 6.7 yards per catch. That's unbelievably bad. I don't know why, but I feel like he was better as a pass catcher than he was as a... I feel like he had more explosive plays. catcher than he was as a i feel like he had

more explosive plays maybe it wasn't good he was bad both he was he was bad last year he had very few explosive moments yes yeah uh all right well let maybe we should talk about this in terms of of average draft position or where they're going to get drafted i'm trying to look at the most recent mock we did i don't know that I have it. I have one from after the NFL draft. We could use that, but I think it was probably before the Frank Gore signing. So take that for what it's worth. But here we go. Hold on, hold on. Gurley had three plays of 20 plus yards through the air. That's 10% of his catches. He had five carries of 20 plus yards over 223 catches. So there were 223 carries,

excuse me. So 5% of his runs and 10% of his catches were explosive. Le'Veon Bell and Leonard Fournette went late round three in this draft that we did. 34th and 35th overall. Since then, you got the Frank Gore

signing, you got Chris Thompson. Le'Veon Bell and Leonard Fournette are not going this high. Where should we put them? Where do you think? I struggle with them both a lot. You guys know I wouldn't take them until about the sixth round, so I can't decide.

Where should they? Because I think Fournette went, I think, Ben, you took him like almost 60th overall like late round five in a recent draft which I got a 57th. Okay 57th and what about Bell? I still think you should go

at the end of the third round. Dave what about you end of the when should Bell go? Like round five, round six? I'm going to put him at the end of the fourth round. I'm going to put him 48th. So if that's the case, Todd Gurley is 38th off the board.

Melvin Gordon is 39th. Le'Veon Bell is 48th. David Johnson is 50th. James Conner is 52nd. Leonard Fournette, let's call him 60th.

And I feel like I missed someone. Montgomery? Yeah. Montgomery is also around 60th. Basically, you've got Gordon and Gurley, end of round three,

beginning of round four, and then late round four through late round five, you've got everybody else. You got Bell, Johnson, Montgomery, James Conner, Leonard Fournette. Do you feel like Gurley and Gordon should be going ahead of them? Yeah. All of them. I have those two ahead of all of the guys but bell and i've got bell i've got bell fairly behind them i it's funny i said round five around six

and here i'm looking at my rankings and he's right at 48 but it doesn't mean that i would be happy with him there i guess i'd be okay with it i'd rather have connor you mentioned connor like 52nd overall. I'd love to have him at that value. And I do think Bell's value is significantly different in PPR versus non-PPR. But I think it's easy to undervalue those catches. I'm going to try to, just for fun, talk Heath out of Le'Veon Bell. See if we can get Heath to move him down four or five rounds.

We're going to take a quick break. We're going to take a quick break here, though, on fantasy football today when we come back, more on these running backs. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook Born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone

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insurance designed for life throughout this conversation i'm not sure if i asked you guys who your favorite is so it seems like levy on bell for heath yep ben who's your favorite uh i'm gonna look at my rankings i guess i have, I have four net girly and Johnson right ahead of bell. And they're all back to back to back. And they're lower than you'd expect in most rankings. Are they all behind all the rookies? They're all behind both Taylor and Edwards.

So they're not all the rookies. Where's acres is right in that range. Where's Melvin Gordon for you? He's behind bell, right behind bell. And then Chris Connor. And I mean, and then Chris Carson

and then James Conner, who I haven't adjusted since the news. I'd probably move Conner up ahead of a lot of these guys. I think Conner's my favorite. I'll say Conner's my favorite. Why isn't Chris Carson everyone's favorite? I know we haven't talked about him, but why isn't Chris Carson easily ahead of this group? He is for me.

I think if he's at training camp, when training camp opens he should be ranked as a top 12 running back format regardless irregardless yeah for regardless of format by the way dave had to leave uh during the commercial break so man you don't you know do you hate chris cars Carson as much as you hate the rest of these guys? A little bit, yeah. I mean, he doesn't catch passes. You're banking on a pretty fragile profile,

in my opinion. 37 is not a bad number. 37 is not a good number. It's not bad. But he also had 278 rushes last year. He got a ton of touches last year. But right before Penny tore his ACL, Penny had taken over

like half the backfield. And then Penny tore his ACL. This mythical Rashad Penny thing has been going on for too long. For two years. He's not as good as Chris Carson. But do you know what he did in the two games before he tore his ACL?

I love Ben. These are my types of arguments. I love it. He ran 14 times for 129 yards in a TD, and Carson only got eight carries. This was as Carson was fumbling all over. And then the next week, he ran 15 times for 74 yards in a TD. Carson got 23 carries in that game and went for 100 yards in a TD himself. But Penny also caught four balls for 33 yards in that game in a TD.

So over 100 total yards both games right before he tears his ACL. And more importantly, snap shares. Carson's snap shares prior to that were typically – the week before was 96%. Typically in the 80s, he went down to 51% and 52%. And then he shot back up to 83% after Penny tears his ACL. He placed 76% the next week. So to me, I'm more concerned that Carson gets. He plays 76% the next week. So to me, I'm,

I'm more concerned that Carson gets the same dominant share of the backfield that he had for the majority of last year. And then again, right after paying towards ACL, I just don't think that's what Seattle should be doing, I guess. So maybe, maybe I'm a little bit.

I have this thing where like two years in a row. Now I've projected Rashad paying to be the pass catching back. And because I thought he would be a better pass catcher he has one game in two years with more than three targets like they throw the ball to chris carson a lot more than they throw it to him yeah they used carson on passing downs a decent amount more than i i guess i think they should i mean this might be me projecting what I think a team should do as opposed to what they tell us they want to do. But he's also a former seventh-round pick. I just – is he that special?

I mean, I know he's their kind of guy, but I just – I don't know, man. I don't see the huge reception upside, like I said. Yes, he had 37 last year, but that's still not amazing. And I don't see him being able to maintain the 250 plus carry uh upside necessarily all right so let's wrap up this discussion because i i know ben doesn't like this group of running backs for the most part heath do you like this group of running backs not including chris carson the one thing that's just a little bit, like, I think Ben doesn't like them because of what they represent. And I think there is a point in drafts where they can represent value.

I am really kind of getting about, like you said, fifth round for David Montgomery. I, I think we're finding him in the sixth and I'm getting pretty excited about him because there's really, like, there's no reason to have decided that David Montgomery is bad with as bad as that offense was last year.

And he's probably going to get close to 300 touches. So I like him. I like Le'Veon for what he's going to cost. Yeah, I guess I like this group of backs. I will sign off on David Montgomery in the sixth round for sure. Yeah, what if it's the fifth round, though? What if it's a top 55 pick? Then I take a receiver. Who do you take in running back, though?

The receivers you can take in this round do not have these issues. Okay, but I guess the problem is what do you do at running back? Do you have to make sure you have two good ones in the first two rounds so you don't have to choose from this group? It would be helpful to get at least one in the first couple rounds i don't think you have to but i i think yes like i think the the dominant strategy this year should be to take at least one running back in the first round and if you're in the back half the first round you don't take one the first round you take one in the early second uh but you can get by with the running back too uh with a with

a later round running back out running back too and be dominant everywhere else. And you work the waiver wire. You have to. All right, here we go. I want to go through every single one of these running backs and sum up how we feel. But first, here we go. Heath, you're going to move Le'Veon Bell down from the third round to the 10th round. Le'Veon Bell is 28 years old.

As I've said every show for the last two weeks, he did not have a 20-yard run all last season. He has now gone two full seasons without having a 30-yard run. That's nearly 600 carries, and only three of them more than 20 yards, none of them more than 30 yards over his last two seasons. And that's obviously set out a year in between. He was on pace for 261 carries last year. That was with basically nobody else getting any work.

They bring in Frank Gore, who might get some goal line work, and might get 120, 130 carries, because Adam Gase likes him. Le'Veon Belt might have 180 carries. He's not good anymore. And he has

like, total bust should barely be rostered downside. Move him down. Yeah, some of those things are true. I don't buy totally into the Frank Gore's going to get 40% of the carries. It could happen, and they did give like 100 carries to Bilal Powell, Ty Montgomery, and Josh Adams last year. But that's like,

Bilal Powell got like half of his carries in the one game Le'Veon Bell missed. Nobody got carries. And they threw it another 30 times to those backs, including 78 to Le'Veon Bell. And there's nothing Adam Gase likes more than a three-yard drop and a four-yard pass.

So I think the pass volumes there, like there's concerns. The factoid you had about him being the first running back in the last hundred years to get that many catches and not finish as a certain thing. To me, that just says, he's probably going to finish as a top 12 back next year if he gets that many catches and not finish as a certain thing top 12 to me that just says like he's probably going to finish as a top 12 back next year if he gets that many catches again no it's you know what i think you're probably right and it was 64 catches which he's been on

pace for uh in four in five straight seasons that's definitely the right way to understand that factoid from my perspective too it's crazy because i don't like Le'Veon Bell, but if he gets 64 catches, it's really hard. To get that many catches and not be a top 12 running back in PPR, you've got to be someone who gets less than 100 carries. You've got to be a specialist, and he's not going to be that. I think the best thing that can happen for the Jets, because Adam Gase does not want Le'Veon Bell, I don't think, but I also don't think that he

just burns money. He loves trading players, especially when they are producing. The best thing they could have happen is Le'Veon Bell gets off to a start the first three or four weeks and looks like Le'Veon Bell again and they're able to trade him for a bag

of footballs. Next player, sum up your feelings on James Conner. Intrigued. Confused. Yeah, I mean, again, we cannot lose sight. In 2018, he was a top eight running back. He scored double-digit rushing touchdowns, which Le'Veon Bell has never done, which was really weird.

And he caught 55 passes in 13 games. And I maintain he is not as good as Dalvin Cook, but I would maintain that he has just as good a chance of being on a good offense. He has

less injury risk, in my opinion, but not more than Dalvin cook. Um, and he's probably going to go four rounds later. Sum up your feelings on Todd Gurley. Doubtful. Uh,

confused. Yeah. I mean, I think I say doubt doubtful i think he's like around 20th my running back rankings i wouldn't totally avoid him if he was there in the fourth round but i don't know i want to know how healthy he is but we're never gonna know yeah do you think he could still be like two years ago the previous two years before his injury in 2018 he was the best running back in football. Is it possible he didn't get back to being a great player because last year he just wasn't?

Typically, I say no when it comes to those types of players. I don't chase past production, especially when you have to pay an extra round because he had such a high ceiling years ago when he was a different player. Okay. Sum up your thoughts on Melvin Gordon. Same. ago when he was a different player okay sum up your thoughts on melvin gordon uh same i'm just out on him why because lindsey and a bad offense i just don't think they're going to be an offense that can generate even necessarily one good running back line but

uh like stat line but then you have two guys that are playing. I mean, there's some backfields that could generate two, and the Chargers were one of them. I don't think the Broncos are going to be that. Well, didn't they, though? I mean, in 2018, Phillip Lindsay had 192 carries and Royce Freeman had 130. In 2019, Lindsay had 224 carries,

and Freeman had 132. So, I mean, I think Royce Freeman basically has to go away. But we saw it last year. Phillip Lindsey, 224 carries, Royce Freeman 132. Why can't that be Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsey instead of Lindsey and Freeman? Well, I think he can get 220. Will he catch 50 passes?

Because Gordon is basically always around 50. I've got him projected for 52. 270 touches for Melvin Gordon? You're not going to like him? I said he could get 220. I've only got him projected for 200. This is, I think, you're making kind of an upside case, I think, right now. I like Melvin Gordon, full disclosure, yes. And this upside case, I think, right now. I like Melvin Gordon, full disclosure. Yes.

And this upside case, 270 touches isn't bad. 220 carries and 50 catches still isn't a massive win. It gets back to that small win, big loss type thing. He's not the right type of bet for me. There's more risk than there is upside.

Okay. And sum up your feelings on David Johnson. Sad. I wish David Johnson would have been so much better for so many years. I'm hopeful that it means that they're the reason that they have two good pass catching backs and no good running backs is because they're going to let Deshaun Watson throw 575 passes for the first time well i just find it so strange that four straight seasons lamar miller lamar miller lamar miller carlos hyde none of them had more than six total

touchdowns none of them had more than eight carries inside the five yard line that's just not a big number it's weird the way they've used their running backs and maybe without andandre hopkins things change i don't know yeah no when you think about that set aside the running backs think about deshaun watson like they like to use his mobility in the red zone they absolutely do and that's the exact reason for that they he breaks the pocket we've seen him throw even short touchdowns on the run and then also obviously run for touchdowns sum up your feelings on David Montgomery. A little excited. I don't know if I'm excited

because I don't think Tariq Cohen's going anywhere, so I don't think he can really have that big of a receiving role, but I'm excited for this offense a little bit. The whole offseason talk has been that they made a mistake trading a fourth-round pick for a player in Nick Foles that the

jaguars couldn't wait to get out of that contract but because of the quarterbacks that were then available later in in free agency but i i read that a little bit as like they wanted him specifically and they wanted him specifically because naggy's worked with him because bill laser's worked with him and because d felipo's worked with him in multiple places like I think Nick Foles is going to be their starting quarterback and I think he has the potential to be better for this offense and then potentially better for David Montgomery as the whole offense gets better

okay and sum up your thoughts on Leonard Fournette completely befuddled like I think he could legitimately be a top five running back this year and i think he could get cut in training camp and like nobody could sign him before week one yeah that's i mean i agree i don't think he's gonna catch i don't think he's gonna see anywhere near the targets he saw last year i think that's an important point like the first couple years his receiving was way lower than the 100 targets he saw last year and everything they've said to us this year drafting chanel who's a

short area player and can move into the backfield uh bringing in chris thompson they're and trying to trade for net like they they're not going to give him 100 targets again and you can't look at his 2019 target rate as anything close to a barometer for what we'll see in 2020 i mean that's one of the stats that i'm most confident will be nowhere near last year you could still flirt with 300 touches though fournette was 13th and non-ppr seventh and ppr and this is you know these are interesting players because like you just look at david montgomery how about jordan howard j Howard? Jordan Howard was in 2017 the number nine running back in non-PPR, number 14 in PPR. In 2018, he was 20th in both formats.

And, you know, was that good? I don't know. 20th in both formats for a guy who had 250 carries, played every game? Not really. Ben hates that guy. I hate that guy too i hate that guy oh man um but you know it counts points points points so well what is like that that guy in the ninth or tenth round is a pretty good deal sure yeah but in the fifth or sixth round i'd say no

then like that's the answer to the question who am i drafting at running back two if i do what i was describing earlier fine take him in the ninth round. Yeah. And I think for me, anybody that I'm taking with a pick in the first five rounds, hopefully, unless I'm playing in a non-PPR league, you got to have some role in the passing game. Right?

I mean, how could David Montgomery have a huge year? It would be, I think it'd be really tough. I just don't think he's going to catch a lot of passes. He had 25 last year. I don't think he's going to get necessarily more than that. I think he could catch 30. He could have a Chris Carson type

year is what you would look for. Alright, well, good job guys. Thank you very much. Appreciate that. Later in the week, we're talking year two receivers playing poker next week on Twitch. For Heath, for Ben, guys. Thank you very much. Appreciate that. Later in the week, we're talking year two receivers, playing poker next week on Twitch. For Heath. For Ben.

For Dave. I'm Adam. Talk to you on, what is it, Thursday? I don't know. Ben, Draggy B. Wednesday. Wednesday. Our next show. Talk to you then.