Fantasy Football Today - Worryometer, Buy Low/Sell High, Bucs-Eagles (10/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: October 13, 2021

Before we get into who you're worried about, Dave and Heath give you their favorite buy lows (2:40). Dave wants to buy Stefon Diggs and Javonte Williams. Is Williams really going to break out in the s...econd half? Heath wants to buy (7:30) Miles Sanders and Jaylen Waddle ... Is it time to sell Dawson Knox (10:50) and Deebo Samuel (14:30)? Dave and Heath do not agree on Lamar Jackson's value (16:00). What about the Seahawks WRs? We also give you your news and notes (22:00) and some interesting stats (26:00) about Dak Prescott's TD rate and what is holding the Bengals offense back ... It's Worryometer Wednesday (30:00)! You're worried about Amari Cooper, Tee Higgins, Mike Davis and more. Do we share your concerns? And we preview Bucs-Eagles (44:40), read your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com (57:30) and your Apple Podcast questions (1:02:00). Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:21 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Buy low, sell high, and it is Worry-O-Meter Wednesday. I'm in a good mood, but still, it's always a good time to worry in fantasy football. Who are you worried about? Instead of us telling you who we're worried about, we'll find out who the listeners are worried about, and we will react.
Starting point is 00:01:46 Adam Azer with Dave Richard and Heath Cummings here on Wednesday, Wednesday the 13th. Spooky show. Wednesday the 13th. I just said that. I'm very excited for the new Halloween movie this weekend. Yeah. I've never watched one of them. You've never seen a Halloween?
Starting point is 00:02:09 I've never seen a Michael Myers movie. I've seen a Freddy Krueger movie or two. Those suck. Yeah. Halloween is in a different class. What? All right. You can't say that...
Starting point is 00:02:24 We do this thing every year where heath's the bad guy because he doesn't like halloween and adam's the good guy because halloween's so much fun and then you say freddy krueger movies suck the first one you don't like halloween no the first one's a solid movie the first one's you do not like halloween and also i have seen very few images of you dressed up for Halloween. Every year, I'm in a costume posting pictures. I think you're a Halloween fraud. I think we have to dress up on Sunday night, on Halloween night, when we do the recap show. That's what I think.
Starting point is 00:02:58 Great. I've already got my costume. Okay, good. So let's start with some buy lows and some sell highs. This segment, in an effort to reign in the show and make sure we get to everything we need to get to, we've got to preview the Thursday night game, Bucks and Eagles. This segment is called Top Two Buy Lows in 30 Seconds on Each, followed by a quick rebuttal from the other analysts. So if Dave goes first, then Heath gets to respond. But really, it shouldn't take more than 30 to 60 seconds total per player. So Dave,, you can go first. 30 seconds on your favorite by-lows. Two of them. My first favorite by-lows. Should I just combine them?
Starting point is 00:03:31 No, do one at a time. One at a time? One at a time it is. Stephon Diggs coming off of his worst game of the year. Certainly his fewest targets of the year prior to that game. He had at least eight targets in his first four games. At least 12 PPR points in each of his first four games. I think he can do better
Starting point is 00:03:47 than 12 PPR points most weeks. And this Buffalo offense is among the best in football. I would imagine the numbers are coming his way. And fantasy managers who drafted Stefan Diggs are unhappy with what they've gotten.
Starting point is 00:03:58 If they are three and two, two and three, one and four, oh and five, negative one and six, then Stefan Diggs is someone you should absolutely target off their team. Quick rebuttal, Heath? Should 0 and 5 teams be making trades at this point in Redraft?
Starting point is 00:04:10 Yes. Everybody is allowed to make trades. Everybody's not allowed to make trades. If you're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, you are no longer allowed to make trades. Who is mathematically eliminated after five weeks? Nobody at this point, but I'm just saying in like three weeks, the 0 and 5 team will be.
Starting point is 00:04:26 Not if they're 3-5. We're probably 2-6. You guys still consider Diggs a top five wide receiver? Probably not. Okay, would you rather have Jess and Jefferson or Diggs? Jefferson. Jefferson. Would you rather have
Starting point is 00:04:44 Mike Williams or Diggs? Yeah. Oh, Jefferson. Jefferson. Would you rather have... Mike Williams or Diggs? Yeah. I had someone offer me Mike Williams for Diggs last night. And? I turned it down. You'd rather have Diggs? I'll take Diggs over Mike Williams.
Starting point is 00:04:56 Okay. They're very close in the trade chart. Diggs is higher. All right, Dave, who's your second buy low? I am interested in acquiring Javante Williams, especially if I have playoff aspirations, and I am not 0-5 or 1-4. I think that the time will eventually come where he is going to be the lead back in Denver.
Starting point is 00:05:14 I know so far this season it's been an impressive, it's actually impressive how they've split the reps nearly 50-50 in every way, shape, and form. But I think that he's a little bit more explosive than Melvin Gordon. He's certainly being used more in the pass game. He has at least three catches in each of his last three games. And we saw it last year. A bunch of rookie running backs broke out in the second half of the season.
Starting point is 00:05:38 I think now's the time to get Javante before he has a big game, which might come this week against Las Vegas. And then he's going to be too rich for people's blood. Heath, do you agree? I don't know how to feel about this one. I think a lot of people feel this way about Javante Williams, but it has been so 50-50. He hasn't separated himself from Gordon.
Starting point is 00:05:57 And Dave's right about all those rookie running backs who had big finishes, but I don't know. I feel like the circumstances were a little different. What do you think? Well, I think almost all those rookie running backs were better than Javante Williams. The only thing I'm skeptical of is he was a 50-50 running back in college. He's always been a 50-50 running back.
Starting point is 00:06:21 If Melvin Gordon disappeared, I'm not so sure that he wouldn't be a 50, 50 running back with somebody else. I don't know. I mean, but so it's Josh, Josh Jacobs barely got any work in college. I don't know that that really matters. And I was skeptical about Josh Jacobs until I gave him 20 touches a game.
Starting point is 00:06:37 Like some backs do, do overcome that. But I don't also know if the perception of perception of Javante Williams is any different than what Dave just said. Like you can't buy low on him because people expect? I think almost everyone believes Javante Williams is going to be better than Melvin Gordon almost every week. This is the week that Javante Williams is going to take over from Melvin Gordon. I've heard that like three weeks now. Let me make it clear that I don't think this is the week where it happens,
Starting point is 00:07:10 where all of a sudden... 70-30. No, no, I get that. I would expect still 50-50 this week. Yeah. It's a long-term play, right? And I also think that Denver will use another running back no matter what, but it could be 65-35 Javante over Melvin. Melvin
Starting point is 00:07:25 could get pushed out of passing down's work. There's a bunch of different ways where Javante can be better and thus more reliable for fantasy. Right now, you're right. We just don't know which Broncos running back is going to be great. I don't think they know. Like I said, doing an impressive job of
Starting point is 00:07:41 keeping their workloads even like Stephen. I feel like cream rises to the top. It's one of those things. And I'll tell you one more. If you if you think that I'm wrong on this and that Javante Williams is just too stuck in the timeshare, then shoot a little lower and trade for Melvin Gordon. But why? That's the thing. It's like, why do I want a guy? I don't know that I want anyone in this backfield.
Starting point is 00:08:07 I mean, they do run the ball a lot. Sure. I'm just saying if you need a running back. Yeah, yeah. Sorry. All right, let's go. Heath, you're up. You're number one.
Starting point is 00:08:16 And this one may be one where you'll say you can wait a week, although with what they've allowed in the passing game, it may not be. I'm buying low on Miles Sanders. I don't really believe that Kenneth Gainwell is taking this job from him. He played 75% of the snaps in week five, which was a season high. He's played at least 60% of the snaps in every game so far this season. He's been relatively efficient except for the six yards on five catches last week. He has at least three catches in four of five games,
Starting point is 00:08:45 and he's kind of viewed in the same range as Melvin Gordon and Javante Williams. I think Miles Sanders is going to be better than them. The schedule gets much easier after week six against Tampa Bay. Rebuttal? The rebuttal is Philadelphia. They're running a legal of 13.8 rush attempts per game with their running back so far this season.
Starting point is 00:09:06 So it'll take what appears to be a significant change for them to go back to their running backs even more. They're not giving them the ball as much as we'd like them to do. So that's the first thing. And then last week was a good step for Miles Sanders. I agree. He played, I think it was like 75% of the snaps last week. He was really good.
Starting point is 00:09:27 But Gainwell, especially in a game like this, he might get a real chance to step up. And every time they've got a game where they're not going to be able to run the ball, I think Gainwell is going to have that type of opportunity, and that could cost Sanders more in the long run. Doesn't Miles Sanders have the same number of targets as Kenneth Gainwell or one, but I don't know if he's,
Starting point is 00:09:47 I don't know if he's as good of a receiver as Gainwell can be. Yeah, I don't know. We've seen him botch receptions before. Gainwell had a six catch game, but other than that, really, you know,
Starting point is 00:09:59 Sanders has been more involved in the passing game than Gainwell, at least in terms of catches. I don't know. I just, well, look well look it's not but their schedule is great or from our Sanders their next three games are great Heath after Tampa Bay Vegas Detroit and the Chargers all rank 24th or or worse against running backs your next uh by low I'm gonna go with Jalen Waddle um I mean for one thing it shouldn't be surprising that a rookie wide receiver gets off to a slow start. Guys like Jamar Chase and apparently Kadarius Toney are the exception. But I really just think that it's hard to really measure him with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. I think that Tua will be better when Tua gets back, and he could be back very shortly. They can't get anyone else healthy, but I do think that when Devontae Parker's there, it's almost better for Waddle because then he's not the only wide receiver
Starting point is 00:10:50 that the team has to worry about. I think in the second half of the season, Waddle has a good chance to be a high-end number three wide receiver, if not better than that. Okay, who would you trade for Waddle? Would you rather have Jacoby Myers or Jalen Waddle? Waddle, for sure.
Starting point is 00:11:05 Would you rather have Eli Mitchell or Jalen Waddle. Would you rather have Jacoby Myers or Jalen Waddle? Waddle for sure. Would you rather have Eli Mitchell or Jalen Waddle? I think Waddle. Mitchell for Dave, Waddle for Heath. Okay. Yep. All right. Guys, you want an edge when you're setting your DFS lineup? So all you got to do is check out the Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast. They give you all
Starting point is 00:11:22 of the DFS insights you need to dominate. That's Frank Stample hosting with Mike McClure and Sian Ajad. You got cash and GPP analysis on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Deep diving into the pricing and the matchups. Listen to the Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast wherever you listen to FFT.
Starting point is 00:11:38 We are on to the sell highs. Give me your two favorite sell highs. Go ahead, Heath. You're up. I'm going to go with Dawson Knox. And I tweeted about this yesterday, so it really shouldn't surprise anyone. But he has 24 targets on this season. If he had just produced at the same rate of efficiency that Travis Kelsey has for his entire career, he would currently be tied in 11.
Starting point is 00:12:04 I don't think he's as good as Travis Kelsey. Probably the role other than one game has just not been there for Dawson Knox. He had four targets most weeks. He's averaging what's five per game almost. And he has one game with eight. I just think with Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley and Stefan Diggs, there's not going to be enough targets for Knox to be anything more than a Robert Tunyon, which is possible, but not something you should bank on. And speaking of Robert Tunyon, Dawson Knox currently has a higher touchdown rate than Tunyon did last year. I'll give a quick rebuttal. Sorry. I think that he's gotten more involved the last two games because two games ago he had eight targets, was it?
Starting point is 00:12:50 And last week he had four, but Josh Allen only threw, I think, 27 passes, and there were four players who had four or five targets. So I don't... I mean, I feel like he's carving out a bigger role. So do you... I think, like think Dave's Stefan Diggs by low goes hand-in-hand with this. So I think... We talked a lot about Knox on the stream last night,
Starting point is 00:13:14 and it was like, do you buy... We had a poll question, do you buy Dawson Knox, yes or not yet? And I think it's both for me. I buy... And I feel like we probably all feel this way. Correct me if I'm wrong. I buy that he is a must roster and a must start tight end.
Starting point is 00:13:28 I do not buy that. He is a true difference maker like Darren Waller, Mark Andrews and whatnot. So I mean, I, I agree with your sell high, but I also think he's going to be good. You know,
Starting point is 00:13:40 I don't know if he's going to be good. Okay. I'm higher on him then. I think he's going to be valuable, but I don't think he's going to be a true I'm higher on him. I think he's going to be valuable, but I don't think he's going to be a true week-to-week difference maker at tight end. Dave? I think he's got the chance to be,
Starting point is 00:13:52 and I think he's proven that over the last four weeks because he's scored at least one touchdown in each of those last four games. So if you've got him, you're not giving him away, but he is the type of player that you want to package with another player in a two-for-one deal where you get him off your roster and you upgrade at running back um especially if you just lost somebody like montgomery or edwards hilaire or saquon and you need help there so he's a trade chip for sure but if your roster's healthy and you're doing fine and he's your tight end right
Starting point is 00:14:22 now he's very close to becoming a must-start tight end on a week-to-week basis and not at the top of the streaming channel. Heath, how many tight ends would you definitively take ahead of Knox rest of season? So Kelsey, Waller, Andrews, obviously. I would still take Hawkinson over Knox. I would still take Hawkinson over Knox. I would still take Kittle
Starting point is 00:14:46 over Knox. I would take Dalton Schultz over Knox. I would still take Noah Fant over Knox. That's a tough one for me. Gronkowski? Oh, Kyle Pitts, for sure.
Starting point is 00:15:02 I would take Gronk over Knox. And then there's a handful of guys that I think he's in the discussion. I'm not sure. But he's somewhere between tight end nine and tight end 15 for me right now, rest of season. Okay, second sell high?
Starting point is 00:15:23 Man, I was really prepared for that first one, not as prepared for the second immediate sell-high. I mean, Debo Samuel, I think, is still an excellent sell-high candidate just because Kittle's going to come back and his role's going to be more similar to what it was. And if Trey Lance does become the starting quarterback, that's not going to be great for Debo Samuel. Dave, do you agree on that? Because I think Garoppolo not going to be great for Debo Samuel. Dave, do you agree on that?
Starting point is 00:15:46 Because I think Garoppolo is going to be the quarterback. But yes, Sam Troutman would not be good. And Iuke is nothing right now, and Kittle has to miss at least two more games. Is Debo still a sell-high? Because you mentioned that last week. Yeah, I think he's still a sell-high candidate, but it's not a get- off my team type of sell high
Starting point is 00:16:06 it's somebody needs a wide receiver badly and uh you you give him debo samuel and you get a good player in return the problem is that i think the the overarching opinion on samuel and fantasy is that people recognize this is a guy who can't keep up what he's been doing so i i don't know how high you could sell him for can you turn him into dk metcalf probably not without throwing something in would you do that at this point i think they're really close in value to be honest just because dk doesn't have russell wilson for at least the next three can you turn debo and dawson knox into stefan diggs yeah i think that's really you might be able to do that. Okay. I would very happily do that.
Starting point is 00:16:46 On to Dave's sell highs. Go ahead. First sell high for me would be, well, let's get Heath fired up. Lamar Jackson, who is coming off of this. Remember,
Starting point is 00:16:59 Dave, you have 30 seconds. Go ahead. Coming off an amazing game, but he had 20 or fewer fantasy points in three of the four games prior. And I don't believe if he's necessarily a top three quarterback rest of season. If you want to call him a top six fantasy quarterback rest of the season, I completely agree. But I am a little concerned about what might happen here because we've seen it to begin the year. And Heath is going to say that he was unlucky in those first four games.
Starting point is 00:17:26 I would say in the second half against Indianapolis, he was extremely fortunate to come through with the numbers that he got. First factual disagreement. Lamar Jackson is one of three quarterbacks who does not have a game with fewer than 20 fantasy points, according to the weekly scoring in our FFT league. I'm looking at it right now. 20, 34, 21, 21,
Starting point is 00:17:50 49. That's in our FFT league, which is standard CBS scoring. I've got 20 and 19. Yeah, I've got 19, 33, 20, 29. Because you're looking at leagues that don't have decimal scoring, and that's really, really, really weird. Okay, fine. So he had a 20-point game.
Starting point is 00:18:05 Fine. He did have a 20-point game. He had two 21-point games. Yes, yes. Thank you, Ben Schrager. There you go. This is a guy who was the number one quarterback in fantasy and the MVP in 2019.
Starting point is 00:18:21 He's throwing for more than 300 yards per game. And amazingly, it's not impacted his rush attempts at all. He's still averaging 11 rush attempts per game. They've just stopped giving the ball to their bad running backs and they're running the entire offense through him. He is one of three or four quarterbacks who legitimately could be the league winning number one quarterback the rest of the season and i would not give him up unless it was like a first or second round pick okay well of course okay uh or when i say sell high who's your second sell high dave i'm worried about the receivers in seattle without russell wilson there i think the values are down a little bit for DK and Lockett. Lockett was already proving to be a very flighty fantasy receiver
Starting point is 00:19:07 where he's like last game he was very close. He should have had a good game but he didn't and it's three in a row for him where he hasn't. So it feels very Tyler Lockett-ish how his season has gone and now he doesn't have Russell Wilson who's one of the best deep throwing quarterbacks at his disposal for three games, four games, six six games maybe the rest of the year if seattle starts to lose out so i i might consider especially with lockett getting what you can for him at this point okay this is he's not a sell high as much as he might be just a sell let me ask you about metcalf uh metcalf or A.J. Brown?
Starting point is 00:19:45 I've got Metcalf higher. Brown's an interesting buy low. I wish I knew what was going on with A.J. Brown. I don't think we have any idea how healthy he is. Yeah, he's on the Worryometer. We'll get to him. So, Metcalf. So, who would you take, Heath?
Starting point is 00:20:02 I'd probably take Metcalf. Okay. Metcalf or Calvin Rid? I'd probably take Metcalf. Okay. Metcalf or Calvin Ridley? Ridley. Metcalf or Ridley. Ridley? Okay. Does anybody want ground beef for life?
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Starting point is 00:22:29 this deal and do it today or tomorrow people. Times are running out. News and notes. Dallas Goddard is on the reserve COVID list. He hasn't officially been ruled out for Thursday, has he? No.
Starting point is 00:22:45 He has to pass two negative COVID tests before he plays. He hasn't officially been ruled out for Thursday, has he? No. Okay. He has to pass two negative COVID tests before he plays. Right. He's got time to do it. Well, he has to pass the first one by the end of the day today because they have to be 24 hours apart. Yeah, it's not going to be easy for Dallas Goddard to play this week. Zach Ertz is 68% rostered,
Starting point is 00:23:03 and I think he has 21 targets in his last three games, something like that. Is he a must-add, must-start? Yes. He is a low-end, tight-end one this week. He was unbelievably sloppy last week, though.
Starting point is 00:23:17 I would start Zach Ertz in PPR this week over Dalston Knox. Well, Heath, I'll tell you what. I'd start him over TJ Hawkinson. You're both crazy. Why? I don't think that's crazy at all.
Starting point is 00:23:29 He's had 21 targets over his last three games, and he was good the two weeks before. One bad game shouldn't impact our feelings that much. Sure, but I think there's certainly more upside with Hawkinson against Cincinnati. I'm okay with starting him. What's wrong with Cincinnati? They're solid.
Starting point is 00:23:46 But they are solid. They're better than the Bucs defensively. I do have Hawkinson ahead of Ertz. I go Hawkinson, Ertz, Knox. Okay. Ertz will be last for me.
Starting point is 00:23:55 Okay. Clyde Edwards-Elair is on IR, so a little bit clearer timeline. You're getting at least three weeks of Darrell Williams. Unless they trade for Marlon Mack, they're interested in him. Do you guys think we should be stashing Marlon Mack? I don't think it's a bad idea at all in deeper leagues.
Starting point is 00:24:13 But in a regular 10 or 12-team league, I don't know if he's worth it. When do trades usually happen in the NFL? Do you know what day? No. Usually Tuesdays during the off days. Today is Wednesday. when do trades usually happen in the NFL? Do you know what day? No. Tuesday. Usually Tuesday. Tuesday. During the off days.
Starting point is 00:24:27 And today is Wednesday. There were no trades last Tuesday. If you want to pick them up on Saturday before the games kick off, I'm cool with that. But I don't, I just, I don't know if I want to dedicate a roster spot to him long-term when he might go to Kansas city and be part of a quartet in the backfield.
Starting point is 00:24:46 Gronk's out this week. A couple of players signed to practice squads. Denver signed John Brown. Miami signed Travis Fulgham. Speaking of Miami, Tua is off IR but not necessarily ready to play. We're hoping he comes back this week in London against the Jaguars. Arizona defensive end Chandler Jones is on the reserve COVID list, as he'll try to get off the list by Sunday at Cleveland.
Starting point is 00:25:09 He tested positive for COVID, but if he doesn't have symptoms, he is vaccinated. He has a chance to play. Okay, here's the timeline for Jeff Wilson. I tried to find it yesterday. I could not. They're hoping for late November for Jeff Wilson. That's not good.
Starting point is 00:25:23 Yeah. Hoping. At all. You're hoping for That's not good. Yeah. Hoping. At all. You're hoping for six weeks from now. Yeah. And I mean, J. Michael Hastie's on IR2.
Starting point is 00:25:32 I don't know his timeline, but does it feel like this is Eli Mitchell's big opportunity? I know he's got a buy this week. So this is, if you want to buy low on him, I mean, this is a great time to get Eli Mitchell coming off a disappointing game and on a buy, but got basically all the carries. So is this, this is a great time to get Eli Mitchell coming off a disappointing game and on a bye, but got basically all
Starting point is 00:25:45 the carries. So is this a bye-low opportunity, I guess? I'm sure to say that. Seattle released cornerback Trey Flowers. I wouldn't give up a lot for Elijah Mitchell, though. Would you
Starting point is 00:26:01 give up Dawson Knox for Elijah? Oh, we already asked that. No, we did it with Waddle. Heath said he'd rather have waddle i'd rather have mitchell than knox for sure okay yeah i think that that's a fair trade uh last night i had a ice cream that had heath bar in it i thought about you dave well i i that's that's an image that will be in my head for the rest of the day. Yeah. Listen to vanilla ice cream, Reese's pieces, white chocolate, chocolate, chocolate covered almonds and Heath bar all in one ice cream. You know what would have been better? What? Vanilla ice cream with Heath bar in it.
Starting point is 00:26:39 All the other stuff you don't want. I'm just saying. All right. Uh, well, uh, uh you know you are pretty vanilla okay what do you make of these stats dac prescott has a 7.9 touchdown rate in every other year of his career it's been 4.1 to 5 what do you make of that i think it's having a fantastic season yeah it's not it's also not uncommon like we've seen higher touchdown rates from guys like tannahill and cousins in years where they haven't
Starting point is 00:27:12 thrown as much he's throwing about as much as tannahill and cousins have over the past three years so that that the scary part is that's probably going to regress a little bit, and he doesn't have enough pass volume to be this good without it. Right. Yeah, that's why I brought it up. All right, what do you make of this? By the way, which quarterback leads the NFL in touchdown rate? Oh, I know this one. Is it Lamar?
Starting point is 00:27:41 No. It's not. No, Lamar's just like 4.8. He's still got some good regression coming. Maybe even better than he was last week. He's a quarterback that nobody really seems to want on a fantasy roster in a 1QB league. I knew it, too.
Starting point is 00:27:57 He is on a bye this week. Matt Ryan. No. Jameis. Jameis Winston, yeah. Ah, yeah. Next stat. Remember,is Winston, yeah. Ah, yeah. Next stat. Remember Heath said,
Starting point is 00:28:07 buy low on Miles Sanders. Miles Sanders leads the NFL in fewest attempts per broken tackle. He is fourth in the NFL in fewest receptions per broken tackle. He is seventh in the NFL among running backs in yards before contact per attempt.
Starting point is 00:28:23 All pretty good metrics if he could just get more carries. Does any of that matter to you? Yeah, he's not been bad. I don't know for sure that that tells us that Miles Sanders has been good, but I think that tells us definitively Miles Sanders has not been bad
Starting point is 00:28:40 as far as how he's playing. He's got a good setup, too. Why are they giving him the ball more? I don't know that. Right. That's the problem. Yeah. But they just gave him 16 touches.
Starting point is 00:28:49 If they give him 16 touches every week, he's going to be good. All right, last stat here. Joe Burrow has 10 red zone pass attempts. There are three quarterbacks with 34 or more red zone pass attempts, 12 quarterbacks with 25 or more red zone pass attempts. 12 quarterbacks with 25 or more. And Burrow has 10.
Starting point is 00:29:08 The Bengals have had the fewest red zone trips. They're tied with Pittsburgh and Miami. Think about those offenses. Pittsburgh, Miami, and the Bengals have the fewest red zone trips. And the Bengals have actually run the third fewest plays in the NFL. And they are 12th in yards per play. So they're efficient on offense, but they're not running a lot of plays. They're not getting a lot of scoring opportunities.
Starting point is 00:29:28 And I think you see it in the attempts and the targets for guys like T. Higgins. Have they played two overtime games? They've played at least one. Green Bay and Minnesota. Wow. That's amazing. Minnesota might not have been. I gotta double check. Oh, Minnesota was was Minnesota was definitely
Starting point is 00:29:46 Overtime yeah Two overtime games and they've run the third Fewest plays in the NFL they must just be super Slow well I think It's that and They've had the big plays to chase Yeah which have made some Like one or two play drives
Starting point is 00:30:01 And they've they've Had a lot of games, I think, where the opposing team gets three yards, three yards, first down, three yards. I don't think they've done very well in time of possession either. I guess I would say if this can correct itself and they can start running more plays,
Starting point is 00:30:18 even if they're not great at that, then we could really see this offense take off. But maybe they're just too slow. I don't know. Too run heavy. So, okay. I think Higgins is in the Worry-O-Meter. And speaking of which, it is Worry-O-Meter Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:30:33 Here we go. From Jose Rivera. Worried about Amari Cooper and the Dallas passing game. Where are you guys? 0-10 on Amari Cooper specifically. And I gave this stat last night on this live stream, which you should always check out, by the way. 8 p.m. Eastern Tuesday, Thursday at 2 p.m. Eastern, Sunday at 1130 a.m. Eastern. Amari Cooper has scored five, five, 15 and 15 PPR fantasy points
Starting point is 00:30:56 in his last four games. There are 24 wide receivers who average 15 PPR fantasy points per game and have played at least four games. So Cooper has been at best 24th, you know, in his last, he might've finished that higher than that a particular week, but that's kind of been his ceiling the last four games in full PPR. And he's been able to score touchdowns the last two, anyway, zero to 10 on Cooper. Dave, you can start. I'll put it right in the middle. I'm concerned about him, but I'm still probably going to start him. It's going to be with the idea that he's more of a touchdown needy type of fantasy receiver. I say that, but I also recognize that there's always the chance of a game that comes along
Starting point is 00:31:42 where he gets five or six catches. We just haven't seen it since week one when he had a crazy amount of targets and a crazy amount of grabs. He's been saved by long touchdowns each of the last two weeks. I think he's a better player than, well, he needs a long touchdown or else he's going to stink. I think he's better than that. But we've seen Dalton Schultz really step up in this offense. He started to take work away from everybody in there and I don't think he's going away. So the Cowboys just had this unbelievable embarrassment of riches in their
Starting point is 00:32:09 passing game and they're getting Michael Gallup back on top of it. Yeah. I'm I, I hesitate a little to start Amari Cooper each week, but I figure that there's probably other receivers on the team that I just can't trust as much. I'm a seven on Cooper, a six on lamb and a six on deck. Um, the, the past volume is just almost disappeared and they've not really been a team that throws 30% of their passes to their number one or number two wide receivers. It stayed pretty constant around 20%. Um, I'm worried if we're talking about relative to where we drafted, I'm worried about lamb Cooper and Dak not meeting draft expectations. And just on something else we speculated on,
Starting point is 00:32:49 the Bengals are negative two minutes per game in time of possession, not near as bad as Seattle, who is negative 1031. That's amazing. Amazing. What were yours, Gino Smith? One other problem. Well, Chris made a good point about that i mean russell wilson's so efficient and they do connect on those big plays that geno smith might
Starting point is 00:33:10 actually help their time of possession and they might run more plays i think they have the fewest in the nfl the seahawks uh the the cowboys schedule they do not have a lot of good offenses that they're facing patriots then a buy a bye, Minnesota, Denver, Atlanta, Kansas City. That's the immediate future. I don't know that they're going to be throwing much in some of these games. All right, so Dave's not quite as worried
Starting point is 00:33:35 as Heath is, but there's still some concern there. Next is from Ty Cub. He is worried about Deontay Johnson and T. Higgins. Are you guys basically a zero on Deontay Johnson worry-o-meter? Yeah. I'll go one. I'll go one on Deontay Johnson just because I don't understand why he...
Starting point is 00:33:56 No, I'm going to go three on Deontay Johnson. He's been hurt like 17 times over the last two years. So that's always a little bit of a worry. And the fact that he had two targets last week is, I have no explanation for it whatsoever. Yeah. All right. But he's a must-start and usually gets his double
Starting point is 00:34:13 digit targets from Ben. Roethlisberger only threw 25 passes last week. He was 40 or more each of the previous three. T. Higgins. Worryometer on T. Higgins. Five. There's a concern that there will be games where Jamar Chase is the one
Starting point is 00:34:29 and Tyler Boyd is the two and Tee Higgins is the three. There are concerns that the Bengals stay, run heavy and slow. And so if Higgins, if Chase is getting 25% of the targets, 20% of 30 pass attempts
Starting point is 00:34:43 is six targets a game and that's not a starting wide receiver. I don't see Higgins as an explosive receiver either. He doesn't make a ton of huge plays downfield. I think as long as play of the year, he does have a 28 yard or he's a perimeter receiver that needs touchdowns in order to come through. And he's not getting the volume that you like. I'm more worried about Higgins than I am Amari Cooper. Higgins, one good thing is it's a really small sample, but he does lead the team in red zone and green zone targets, but they just haven't thrown that many.
Starting point is 00:35:12 But that's with missing two games. So I'm hoping that he is just sort of Joe Burrow's guy there. He might need to be. From Jersey Wolf, George Kittle, when he's back, what's your worry-o-meter on George Kittle? I'll try to stay consistent and do it based on where he was drafted. I'm like a seven. But in terms of whether I'm starting him or not,
Starting point is 00:35:37 the second George Kittle's back, he's in my lineup, and I'm not going to think about it the rest of the year. Exactly. Yeah. It's kind of like what I was saying with Cooper. There's this trust factor that's been established for a long time that you don't want to necessarily you know be flippant about you don't want to just say all right well this guy's no good anymore just because he hasn't been good
Starting point is 00:35:55 so far this season when you know over the course of his career he's been pretty great so i'm uh i'm i'm i'm rolling with kittle as like a four on the worryometer i'm not too worried i'm not laughing at you dave i'm like laughing at this comment from akarsh god adam is one handsome man i don't know i are you kidding me i i think that's got to be sarcasm i look ridiculous i've needed a haircut for two weeks it's i i'm sorry about the way I look. My apologies. Me too. Okay.
Starting point is 00:36:29 By the way, Kittle is on pace. His 16-game pace is 908 yards. That is shockingly low. He's been on pace for over 1,200 yards in each of his last three seasons. And yet 900 yards from a tight end, just in general, is great. Yeah, but also zero touchdowns. That's probably a top three tight end just in general is great. Yeah, but also zero touchdowns. Not necessarily a top three tight end.
Starting point is 00:36:46 Okay, from TD, Worryometer on Waddle. Yeah, we taught you something. Heath called him a buy low. His ADOT in week one was 9.8. Since then, it's been super low. So I'm hoping that's a two-a thing and maybe that he just... No, it's not. It's So I'm hoping that's a Tua thing. Maybe that he just... No, it's not.
Starting point is 00:37:07 It's not? It's a Waddle thing. He's running a lot of his routes close to the line of scrimmage. I believe five of his 35 routes last week were 11-plus yards downfield. But he did have a better ADOT when he played with Tua. That's what I'm saying. Could that change? Could they take more shots with Tua?
Starting point is 00:37:22 I don't know. I think he was still running a lot of shorter routes with Tua. So maybe there was one or two targets that he had with Tua that were further downfield, and that's what pushed up the A-dot in that game. This is a team where I want them to grow Waddle and make him a bigger part of the offense, and so far this year it hasn't happened.
Starting point is 00:37:42 He's been their slot guy. He's been their short area check down guy, and they're hoping that he makes plays after the offense. And so far this year, it hasn't happened. He's been their slot guy. He's been their short area check down guy. And they're hoping that he makes plays after the catch. He really hasn't done a whole lot of that. Well, they have some awful defenses. Four of their next six games are against the Jaguars, Falcons,
Starting point is 00:37:55 Texans, and jets. They also have Atlanta. I mean, you say that, but I just don't know that the offense is good enough to, to make, to make them a true buy low,
Starting point is 00:38:04 you know, is he going to score? Is he going to get 12 targets? A couple weeks ago, I think it was against Las Vegas, he had 13 targets. He's not going to get 12 targets a game. Okay, so that's part of the problem. Who's going to get 12 targets a game? No, not many people get 12
Starting point is 00:38:21 targets per game. I would probably take eight for him that might mean seven catches it might mean eight catches and i don't know if we don't we don't know at all how good this offense is we have no idea we've seen them play one game with two and that was against the patriots then they face the bills the following week they face tampa bay which doesn't have a good pass defense but has has a very good defense. The Colts, and the Raiders, which aren't bad defense. I mean, they haven't faced really a good
Starting point is 00:38:49 matchup yet. And they've been playing with Jacoby Brissett. Right. We don't really know what they are because, first of all, they haven't had everybody healthy at the same time. There hasn't been a game with Tua, Waddle, Parker, Fuller, Gasicki. And there probably won't be with all those guys i don't
Starting point is 00:39:07 know we might be a couple weeks away from that actually happening and they've got a lot of good matchups coming up so reasons for optimism with the miami dolphins okay uh let's do a few more here and let's go quicker uh dj casso mike davis still have him on my bench have not started him at all this season what's your worryometer on mike Davis, who is number 29 in non-PPR, number 24 in PPR through five games? I think he is what he is. He's the primary running back for Atlanta. For God's sakes, just give me a damn number!
Starting point is 00:39:38 I would be like a six on him, because I'm not expecting him to be better than what he's been. If we're doing this relative to where he was drafted, he's been almost exactly what he was drafted to be. Come on. Don't be so literal. Zero. How worried are you about Mike Davis? I'm not worried about Mike Davis. Okay.
Starting point is 00:39:56 Okay. Interesting. I don't think we're worried about him. That he might be worse than he has been? That he is as bad as he has been, which is a guy that is... I mean, he's been fine in PPR. It's right exactly where you drafted him to be. I guess so.
Starting point is 00:40:10 But you also... You drafted... I hate that argument. Oh, it makes my blood boil. All the Heath bar that is in my blood right now is boiling. Because you don't draft him being like, Oh, all right, well, he's just 24th running back off the board. I hope he's running back 24.
Starting point is 00:40:28 You drafted because you think... No, you were hoping for more. But I'm not going to be worried if he's exactly what I drafted him to be. I am going to be worried. I am worried about players who have been worse than I drafted him to be. Didn't you want him to be like a number two running back
Starting point is 00:40:41 week in, week out, surefire starter? Like when I drafted Mike Davis in the few leagues I did, that's what I was hoping he would be. It was a hope. you want him to be like a number two running back week in week out surefire starter like when i drafted mike davis in the few leagues i did that's what i was hoping he would be it was a hope yeah right and also i'm worried about a guy who's averaging 3.3 yards per carry because you keep doing that you're going to get fewer carries they're not going to keep riding you if you're that bad uh galman zero or they'll just get Patterson more work. And there were the, or Goldman.
Starting point is 00:41:06 Yeah. See, that's the thing. I don't think Patterson becomes a, a workhorse running back for them. I think they love the role that he's in. Okay. Let's go.
Starting point is 00:41:14 AJ Brown, zero to 10. I'm kind of worried about, did you watch his film yet? Heath? No, I watched his targets when Adam was talking about Butcher Box earlier in the show. He didn't seem quite as explosive as he has in the past.
Starting point is 00:41:30 And Tannehill was off target on a bunch of throws. He almost scored last week, by the way. He had a catch and run. They had a shallow cross that he took to the one-yard line. And on that play, he looked pretty good. He didn't look like the same A.J. Brown that I remember. I would say he's a 7 on the barometer. What is it? There we go.
Starting point is 00:41:48 7. 7. Well, that's a lot. I was not thinking that. I was thinking he's fine. My, okay. I know it got lost in all the words, but I said 8. You said 8. Okay. I'm surprised.
Starting point is 00:42:00 49 yards and a touchdown in week 1. Wasn't great, but he had 8 targets. He had a bad game in week 2, but remember he had all those drops. He should have had a huge game in week one. Wasn't great, but he had eight targets. He had a bad game in week two, but remember he had all those drops. He should have had a huge game in week two, uncharacteristic. Week three, he got hurt immediately.
Starting point is 00:42:13 Week four, he played 64% of the snaps coming off the injury. They already talked about getting him more work this week. I wasn't really that worried. I'm surprised you guys are that high. Okay. All right. And last one. Last one is Chase Edmonds.
Starting point is 00:42:24 J.K. wants to know how worried we are about Chase Edmonds. Zero to ten. I think it's format dependent. I'm not worried about him at all in PPR leagues. And I'd only be moderately worried. Call it a two and, no, not even a two. Like a one in PPR and a four and a half in non-PPR. What would the worry be?
Starting point is 00:42:43 Like, Adam, you're the Chase Edmonds guy. And I know you hate the he's been what we drafted him to be. No, he's been much better. What would the worry be with Chase Edmonds? So, Chris, I think, is the Chase Edmonds guy. The worry is that he has almost no chance to score touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:42:58 That he might score four touchdowns this year. Honestly, that's my concern. He's got zero through five games. James Conner and Murray are the goal line guys. The worry to me is that they do spread the ball around so much that there could be some games like last game where he was injured, but he still played his normal snap share and that he just isn't part of the passing game that much. You know, like Christian Kirk has his game and A.J. Green has his game where they get nothing. And Chase Edmonds is not immune to that. So if you take that away, you have a pretty bad running back, I'd say. That's the worry.
Starting point is 00:43:29 He's a fine number two running back in PPR, but mid-range number two running backs in PPR have bad games. There's no such thing as a consistently good number two running back in PPR, I don't think. I also think there's a little worry about upside. I don't know that he has a lot of weekly upside, but there's no way I'm taking him out of my life. No, but he never did. If he could score some damn touchdowns. But you know, there's one thing, just last thing on Edmonds.
Starting point is 00:43:53 I drafted a lot of Edmonds because James Conner has been one of the most injury-prone running backs in football for the last few years. He's still the same James Conner. He could still get hurt. It's only been five games. So that is why I drafted Edmonds,
Starting point is 00:44:05 because I think you could get three or four games where he's almost Alexander Madison, and that would be huge. Obviously, it's a gamble. I can't guarantee that's going to happen, but I still think Conner could get hurt, like anyone, but he's more injured. He could, but he's also playing less.
Starting point is 00:44:22 When he was getting hurt in Pittsburgh, he was their workhorse running back. He's still getting a lot of carries, though. Stay healthy. You're right about that. Do you know what Edmonds is on pace for? No. Yardage-wise?
Starting point is 00:44:31 Total yards, I guess. 1,200. Over 1,450 total yards. He's averaging over 80 yards per game. That's a decent floor in non-PPR. I mean, you'd want a little bit more. And you're right about the touchdowns. And that was the biggest worry that we had on Edmonds coming into the year.
Starting point is 00:44:47 All right, we'll take a quick break here. When we come back, Tampa Bay at Philadelphia, your emails, your Apple Podcast questions. We'll be right back. It's the season for new styles, and you love to shop for jackets and boots. So when you do, always make sure you get cash back from Rakuten. And it's not just clothing and shoes. You can get cash back from over 750 stores on electronics, holiday travel, home decor, and more.
Starting point is 00:45:12 It's super easy. And before you buy anything, always go to Rakuten first. Join free at Rakuten.ca. Start shopping and get your cash back sent to you by check or PayPal. Get the Rakuten app or join at rakuten.ca. R-A-K-U-T-E-N dot C-A. Bucks at Eagles. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na. And by the way, for all of you shraggers out there
Starting point is 00:45:36 who were wondering what I was doing when I was going, for God's sake, just give me the damn number. That is one of my favorite lines from Dumb and Dumber. I know some of you are too. I thought you were just being mean to Dave again. No, no, it's from Dumb and Dumber. I know some of you are too. I thought you were just being mean to Dave again. No, no. It's from Dumb and Dumber. I should just get the drop, but it's not really my thing. This is
Starting point is 00:45:51 an interesting game because Tampa Bay has attempted the most passes in the NFL and the Eagles, I think, have seen the most rush attempts in the NFL. Teams have not been passing on the Eagles. Is it me or does Heath look like an older Justin Tucker? Do I?
Starting point is 00:46:06 Like, by far. Haven't we been saying that for years? Doesn't everybody say that about Heath? The thing is, we can't get some consistency here. There's apparently like 18 famous Heath doppelgangers. And they're all much more famous and successful than I am. Like, can we find somebody who's not quite as successful to come? Like I,
Starting point is 00:46:28 some people say like Aaron Rogers. Well, he's a lot better at his job than I am. I don't know about that. That's you do look a little like Justin Tucker. Yeah. Yeah. Somebody said Eli Manning last week.
Starting point is 00:46:39 What? No, you look nothing like Eli. I think it's the, the mouth. We have the same mouth. You and Justin Tucker or you and Eli Manning? Eli Manning. I think it's the mouth. We have the same mouth. You and Justin Tucker or you and Eli Manning? Eli Manning.
Starting point is 00:46:48 Oh, okay. Championship mouth. Okay. Okay. Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. So yeah, teams have not been throwing much on the Eagles, but that will probably change. And stat of the game comes from True Media. The Bucs have the most 20-plus yard receptions and tied for the second most 25-plus yard receptions. Meanwhile, the Eagles' defense, great at preventing big plays.
Starting point is 00:47:15 They've allowed only eight catches of 20-plus yards. That's second fewest in the NFL. Only six receptions of 25-plus yards. That's tied for the second fewest in the NFL. Did not stop Tyreek Hill from having a massive game. So with all that being said, the setup for this game, do you guys have any concerns about Tom Brady with the trends and the thumb?
Starting point is 00:47:35 Any concerns about Brady? No. None whatsoever. Okay. He's one for Dave. Brady. The biggest worry, if there is one at all, is that the Eaglesagles have typically played
Starting point is 00:47:45 heavy zone defense which the statue gave would be in line with that type of defense tries to take away the big play i think the bucks are still going to try and make some big splash plays in this game despite if there's a concern and i don't really like i'm starting all the bucks wide receivers i wonder if it's more of a godwin antonio brown game because they're taking away things down the field and so it's got to be more short area targets well that hurts brown too you know evans has been kind of like ppr machine right he's had like seven or more catches and four straight or something or something close to that no probably not but see how close you are.
Starting point is 00:48:26 Yeah, yeah, please do, actually, because I think it's been surprising with the catches. By the way, Dave, Tom Brady, the Eagles are the zone-heaviest team in the NFL. Yep. Brady has the fifth-highest completion percentage against zone, eighth-most yards per attempt against zone. Mike Evans does have seven or more catches in two
Starting point is 00:48:46 games this season. Okay, so what is it the last four games? Five, eight, seven, six. Okay. So, it's an average of six and a half, which if you rounded it up, would be seven, which is basically seven in four straight games. Okay, that was onto
Starting point is 00:49:01 something. It's more than you'd expect from Evans. Alright, Leonard Fournette or Miles Sanders? I don't know what the prop is for his reception total. Leonard Fournette or Miles Sanders is a terrible question because you should not start
Starting point is 00:49:13 Miles Sanders. We're starting Fournette. We're not starting Miles Sanders. This is a really... Like, most of the time these games are quite easy and this is another easy game. Okay, Leonard Fournette
Starting point is 00:49:21 or Antonio Brown? I mean, I've got... You start them both. I've got Brown higher in PPR. Okay. Leonard Fournette... I'd probably start... Go ahead.
Starting point is 00:49:35 I'd probably start Brown in PPR. Leonard Fournette or Daryl Williams? Fournette. Fournette. Devante Booker? Fournette. Fournette. Devante Booker. Fournette. Fournette. Don't say it like that.
Starting point is 00:49:48 Come on. Fournette. Leonard Fournette is a top 15 running back. Yeah, I know, but these other guys might be too. Devante Booker is not a top 15 running back. Heath, I'm looking at your rankings. You have him 15th in non-PPR. He is not.
Starting point is 00:50:05 I'm looking at my rankings in PPR, and it shows Devontae Booker 18th. It shows Leonard Fournette 14th, Daryl Henderson 15th. Okay, I said non-PPR. Oh. Who plays non-PPR? 5% of people.
Starting point is 00:50:21 And, and, and, no, you already did. I didn't hit refresh. Come on! He's 19th. He's 19th, Booker. All right, so and no, you already did. I didn't hit refresh. He's not, he's 19th. He's 19th Booker. All right. So for nets to start, Eagles have been terrible against the run
Starting point is 00:50:31 their last three games, 94 more yards against the Eagles for a lead running back. That's Zeke, C.E.H. and Hubbard. So it's not exactly
Starting point is 00:50:39 three studs. Um, so, okay. For net stardom, we should not get away just start all the Bucks wide receivers
Starting point is 00:50:46 right we shouldn't get away from Godwin even though he's been struggling a bit he had 14 points last week didn't he Godwin should need
Starting point is 00:50:53 a more in PPR he has three straight games without a touchdown actually I think he had a rushing touchdown in
Starting point is 00:51:00 one of the maybe but that might have been week two though no I think that was week three against the Rams so three straight games without a receiving touchdown touchdown in one of the... That might have been week two, though. No, I think that was week three against the Rams. So three straight games without a receiving touchdown. He's been
Starting point is 00:51:10 a little disappointing lately. Any interest in Cameron Brait? I think O.J. Howard would be a better play. And there's no interest in him, right? I think Zach Ertz and Dan Arnold would be better plays. For sure. Do you like Jalen Hurts this week?
Starting point is 00:51:26 Yeah. Yeah, start him. Every single quarterback to take on this Bucs team is thrown for at least 275 yards and multiple touchdowns. They have not been tested against a running quarterback yet this year, and they're going to. Jalen Hurts is one of three quarterbacks, along with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson,
Starting point is 00:51:45 who scored at least 20 fantasy points in every start this year. Unless you play in non-decimal scoring. So, okay. Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott? I have Dak higher. I think I have Hurts higher. Jalen Hurts or Matthew Stafford at the Giants? I think I'm
Starting point is 00:52:08 going to move Hurts ahead of Stafford. I currently have Stafford one spot ahead, but I agree. I want to move Hurts ahead of him. Get Hurts in your lineup. Hurts over Rodgers? I think I would. Oh yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:22 Hurts over all the non-top 12 quarterbacks. The only argument I can make for Miles Sanders is we know it's unlikely he's going to run the ball well against the Bucs. They give up a lot of receiving totals. Five running backs have had at least four catches. Four running backs have had at least five catches against the Bucs. And maybe it's Gainwell, but three or more catches in four or five games for Sanders. So how bad do you have to be at running back
Starting point is 00:52:47 to start Miles Sanders? You have to have guys on by, and you missed out on Daryl Williams and Devontae Booker on the waiver wire. But the Dolphins laid out a pretty interesting way to move around that run defense, and I think a lot of teams have done it, honestly. But the problem is that Sanders might get
Starting point is 00:53:04 three or four or five catches, but Gain that Sanders might get three or four or five catches, but Gainwell could also get three or four or five catches. I'm not convinced that Miles Sanders is their guy. But what, again, this kind of goes back to the Elijah Mitchell, Trey Sermon thing from Sunday. Like five games they've played this year, Miles Sanders has played at least 60% of the snaps. Kenneth Gainwell has played 45% or fewer.
Starting point is 00:53:28 What we have no evidence that someone else is their preferred running back that then just last week they gave him 75% of the touches. I'll amend my statement, say in the passing game, I'm not sure that Miles Sanders is their guy, but they have thrown the ball to Miles Sanders more than the Kenneth Gainwell. They have, but I don't know if that stays that way. Yeah, I'm convinced that he's their guy overall,
Starting point is 00:53:51 but I'm not convinced that they care to run the ball that much. They are a throwing team, and they're not going to run the ball, obviously, in this game. We expect... I think Miles Sanders is a borderline starter in full PPR. I don't like him in non-PPR, but in full PPR, I would start him ahead of the Broncos. I'd start him ahead of Alex Collins if Carson's out.
Starting point is 00:54:09 I'd start him ahead of Damian Harris. Man, you start him ahead of Alex Collins if Carson's out. And unfortunately, we probably won't know because it's a Thursday game. That's interesting. Okay. Well, if Carson doesn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday and there's no report saying that he's close to playing on Friday,
Starting point is 00:54:25 then I think you know to go with Sanders. And I agree with that. Sanders over Collins. Okay. And Devontae Smith. Is Devontae Smith better than any of the three Bucs receivers? No. No.
Starting point is 00:54:38 Okay. I mean, I'll amend that. Devontae Smith will very likely be better than one of the three Bucs wide receivers. Yeah, I understand. I don't know which one it will be. Do you like him this week? Like, love?
Starting point is 00:54:52 Yes. I'd say love. Like, he's wide receiver 28 for me. He's fine. He's got to get more targets. You know, the Bucs allow the third most fantasy points to wide receivers, but there's only been one wide receiver who's had a good game against the Bucs with fewer than 10 targets. The Bucs allow the third most fantasy points to wide receivers, but there's only been one wide receiver
Starting point is 00:55:05 who's had a good game against the Bucs with fewer than 10 targets. There are a lot of receivers that get a ton of targets against the Bucs. Deshaun Jackson was the only one. Remember, he obviously had the big plays. And Smith did have 10 targets against the Chiefs, but usually he's around 7 or 8
Starting point is 00:55:21 targets. It's very feasible that he gets 10 targets. I think so, especially if Goddard isn't playing. I think that just opens things up even more. I want to get Kadarius Toney involved here since he's the top waiver wide receiver. How many wide receivers in this game would you start Toney over? Would you start him over Brown?
Starting point is 00:55:41 Would you start him over Devontae Smith? No. There are four receivers that would start ahead of Tony. Yeah, I've currently got Tony ahead of Devontae Smith. I'm not sure it will stay there, but they are in a very similar range, and I need to correct myself because I like going and finding things
Starting point is 00:56:00 and correcting other people. Gainwell has two more targets than Miles Sanders this year. Yeah, a lot of it was that one game. I don't know what to make of it. Okay, Zach Ertz, top 10 in non-PPR. I think he's top 12. I have yesterday's rankings, so that was Tuesday. I'm sure things have changed a lot.
Starting point is 00:56:19 But, man, I don't know why I wouldn't start Zach Ertz. Maybe I'm crazy here, but he's a tight end. He's sixth for me in PPR. He's sixth in PPR? Okay. Yeah, that's too high for me. I've got him 11th right now. Could get as high as 10 or 9, but he's a low-end starter in PPR
Starting point is 00:56:38 that you can expect a bounce-back game from. What is Zach Ertz for the season in PPR? He's got to be close to top 12. Well, let me just tell you this and we'll end on this. Dalton Schultz. He's the 20th. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:56:54 Dalton Schultz, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Higbee, Hunter Henry, and Jonu Smith. Those five tight ends had five or six targets against D-Bucks. They all scored double-digit PPR fantasy points, 10 or more, with five or six targets.
Starting point is 00:57:11 Ertz has seven, eight, and six in his last three games, and that was without Dallas Goddard. So Gasicki was a dud last week. Four for 43 is not like the worst you'll see from a tight end, but he was pretty disappointing on seven targets. The other guys who have had five or six targets, they've all come through against the Bucs. And the Tampa Bay...
Starting point is 00:57:27 We're way off. What's that? We're way off on Ertz and where he is on the season in PPR. Where is he? 2, 4, 6, 8... 20th. 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20th it is.
Starting point is 00:57:41 He'll be top 12. 34 fantasy points in PPR in the league and at 6.8 fantasy points per game. Could be top 12 after this week. DST, start Tampa Bay's DST. They're third for Jamie, fourth for Dave, and eighth for Heath. Dave, that is Thursday Night Football.
Starting point is 00:57:56 Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah. Am I way too low on the Tampa Bay defense? Considering I have a lot of Devontae Smith and Jalen Hurts, yes, you are way too low on the Tampa Bay DST. Emails. Okay, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Debating between Lockett and Gaskin in PPR this week, or half PPR.
Starting point is 00:58:16 This is from Ozzy Jeremy. Who do you like better, Lockett or Gaskin? I'm having trust issues with Miles Gaskin so i'm gonna take lockett and hope that he can make a big play or two with gino i'll go with gaskin why do you do you have trust issues with gaskin too or yes maybe i also have trust issues with tyler lockett right now okay i hear you colin from a city known for its omelets he says denver city known for its omelets. He says Denver is known for its omelets. Oh, yeah. I've heard that.
Starting point is 00:58:49 Your omelet. Okay. Ham. At the airport. At the airport, right. Dear Marquise, AJ, Reggie, and Alfred. Poison. And it's going to be hard for you guys to get that.
Starting point is 00:59:01 They are players who are colors. Marquise Brown, AJ Green, Reggie White, and Alfred? Blue. Blue, yes. Okay, can you give me a good reason why overtime points should count,
Starting point is 00:59:15 at least in the kinds of serious leagues that don't play kickers? OT points seem at least as random and unpredictable as a kicker, if not more so. It would be trivial logistically to have the option to exclude them. Yeah, what do you think? Should overtime points count?
Starting point is 00:59:32 Heath is covering his face in shame over this question. Wow. Oh, Heath is so embarrassed for Colin from Omelette City, Denver. Wow. Go ahead. Nothing. I guess if you're trying to project players, you never project them for overtime.
Starting point is 00:59:56 But come on, it's football. They play overtime. You just deal with it. The player is playing, right? He's producing stats. It counts. That's funny. i don't think that overtime should count when you make an over under bet i think that it should be a regulation bet oh stop no i don't think so at all that's bs do you also think that the bet should be voided if your player gets hurt during the game like if you take the over on saquon last week and he got hurt
Starting point is 01:00:22 no well he got hurt though all right next, he got hurt, though. All right, next question. Jason from Vermont. Things happen. It's football. Half PPR, give up Jamar Chase, get Kareem Hunt. He has Eckler, Zach Moss, Gaskin, Pollard, A.J. Dillon, Jeff Wilson. So he could use the – he's better at wide receiver than running back. Would you give up Jamar Chase for Kareem Hunt?
Starting point is 01:00:44 I'd want a little more. Would you believe that they are almost dead even in the trade chart? Yes. I would believe that. I think this is a fair deal. Full PPR, I give a slight nod to Chase. From no name, Dave, name and city? Carl from up north.
Starting point is 01:01:03 Can you guys talk about where Antonio Brown ranks among wide receivers rest of season sure he's a top 24 receiver rest of season there will be games where he stinks but I think he's just he's a big part of a high power passing
Starting point is 01:01:19 offense if he plays the rest of the year he will finish within inside the top 18 would you rather have Antonio Brown or... I think this is a tough one, but people probably won't agree with me. Chase Claypool. I'd rather have Brown. Ooh, it's really close. I think we should rank the Browns.
Starting point is 01:01:37 Okay, we've got A.J. Marquise, Antonio, and A.J. Oh. Woo! That is a good game. Welcome to Rank the Browns. What do you got? How are you going to do it?
Starting point is 01:01:49 With your theme music. Malcolm's last. Yes. I think I would go AJ, Marquise, then Antonio. But man, it might be Marquise at the top. I think it is Marquise, then Antonio. But man, it might be Marquise at the top.
Starting point is 01:02:06 I think it is Marquise at the top. I'd go Marquise. And I really want to say A.J. Brown next. I really hope that he starts to get himself going and Tannehill plays a little bit better. I made a trade offer that I think probably will get denied, and it would have seemed asinine just a couple of weeks ago in dynasty. Um,
Starting point is 01:02:30 but it, I don't, don't know how crazy it is. Now I offered Marquise Brown and Kadarius Tony for AJ Brown and T Higgins. Delete, delete. Nah, I don't know.
Starting point is 01:02:41 That's pretty even. Um, okay. Apple podcast questions here. Two minutes for these guys and we'll skedaddle. From Cool $2. Drop or keep these guys?
Starting point is 01:02:54 I don't have the format. McKissick, Ayuk, Pollard. I would keep Pollard. I would drop Ayuk and marry McKissick. No, wait. I'll do the other one.
Starting point is 01:03:11 Keep McKissick or drop him? He might be one of the better bi-week replacements in PPR leagues this week. He could be. If you need him this week, I would keep him. Plus, you got Gibson
Starting point is 01:03:21 with the shin injury. I'd be a little hesitant. Yeah, but even if Gibson misses time, I don't think it's going to be all McKissick. No, I didn't say it would be all McKissick, but he'll have a boost like he did last year. Probably. All right, from Rob S.,
Starting point is 01:03:33 I have Brady and Mahomes. Should I trade Brady for an RB upgrade? He has Swift, Edmonds, Miles Sanders, and Zach Moss, and it's only a 10-team league. Yeah, I would do that. Absolutely. See if you can turn Brady and Edmonds into a Sanders, and Zach Moss, and it's only a 10-team league. Yeah, I would do that. Absolutely. See if you can turn Brady and Edmonds into a number one running back.
Starting point is 01:03:48 From Shane in a town east of Cincinnati. New York. There you go. I traded Swift and Debo for Najee Harris and Tyler Lockett. This was right before the Wilson injury. So it was better then. Swift and Debo for Najee and lock it. I like it.
Starting point is 01:04:08 Yeah. As much as I loved DeAndre Swift, I think Najee Harris might be a number two or three, the number two or three running back rest of season. So I like it. Okay. I don't think he's that high. No way.
Starting point is 01:04:20 He's going to be that good rest of season. Are you kidding me? He's currently the number five running back, and he's got a 20% target share that's been much higher when Juju is out. He's second in the NFL in rush share, the share of his team's rush attempts that he has. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 01:04:36 And I think he leads all running backs in targets. So he could absolutely be the best running back behind Derrick Henry. You know why? He might get there just by on attrition. Because other running backs in front of them get hurt. If McCaffrey, Cook, Henry, Eckler, and Zeke are healthy, no one's touching them.
Starting point is 01:04:58 Maybe Aaron Jones. He's been better than Eckler so far, right? Better than Eckler? No. Eckler is averaging 22 points per game or something like that. Eckler's been amazing. I'm not sure it's his... Eckler is the number two running back in PPR.
Starting point is 01:05:14 He's the only one even sniffing Derrick Henry right now. Yes, he is. He is the number two running back, but I don't know. Eckler's at 23 PPR points per game. Najee is at 18.6 PPR points per game. So, yeah. Two more. From Brian, grade the trade.
Starting point is 01:05:28 Give up Najee Harris and Corey Davis for Kyler Murray in a 2QB league. He still has Hunt and Henderson at running back. Read it one more time, please. Najee Harris and Corey Davis for Kyler Murray, 2QB. I don't think I would. Yeah, I don't think I would either. From Mosties, someone dropped Jerry Judy. Should I drop Sterling Shepard to pick him up?
Starting point is 01:05:50 Oh, yeah. Yeah. All right. And we are done with today's show. Thanks so much, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Start or sit for the AFC home games. And I am not going to butcher this out.

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