Fantasy Football Today - Worst Second Half Fantasy Performers: Are We Buying It? (03/02 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 2, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Nick Chubb, D'Andre Swift, Chris Olave, Dallas Goedert are potential bounce-back candidates. Are they the low-buy candidates you need to win your league in 2023? First, we dive into the latest news from around the NFL combine, Ravens GM Eric DeCosta says he "loves Lamar Jackson," (2:50) Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy wants to change their offensive philosophy, (5:00) Keenan Allen's expected to stay with the Chargers, (9:00) and Dan Campbell broke down the Lions plans at running back. (11:02) Next, the guys discuss which players they are most concerned about; Dave discusses Nick Chubb and Alvin Kamara, (14:47) whereas Dan is off D'Andre Swift. (17:12) They also explain why they want more Chris Olave and Rhamondre Stevenson shares in 2023. (18:40) Then Jamey gives a list of potential good value plays and discusses Nick Chubb, D'Andre Swift, and Chris Olave further. (31:40) Lastly, We rank the best 2nd-year wide receivers (41:30) and break down Dallas Goedert, David Njoku, and Jaylen Waddle (45:50)... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's a no-win game. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Well, finishers, that's what we're talking about today on the Fantasy Football Today podcast. I'm Jamie Eisenberg. That's Dave Richard. That's Dan Schneier. As you can see, our buddy Adam Azer taking the day off today. So we'll fill in for him. Hopefully we won't screw this up and give you a fun show as we always do here on FFT. Thanks for watching us on YouTube. Hit the like button as always. We appreciate it. And hopefully for those of you listening on audio, we don't sound too horrible with our esteemed leader

not here. Dan's on the toilet. Dave's in the office. We're good to go. Guys, how's your Thursday treating you so far? Very well. I'm having a good day over here. It's not nice outside by me because you guys live in the luxury, lap of luxury down there in Florida. But as usual, I have my toilet behind me. So anytime I need to go, I'm good to go. What a start.

Like imagine if people are listening for the very first time and they're not getting the joke about Dan or they don't watch on YouTube. Jamie, you'll appreciate this. I don't know if you'll appreciate this, but my back's out sitting on an ice pack right now. First time. And like, honestly, Jamie, you tell me when's the last. It's got to be at least five years since it happened. Are you a lower back out kind of guy? Yeah, I was for a long time, and then I didn't, and now it's back.

So I'm old AF, and my back is sore. I know how to handle it. Hopefully, I'll be back up and moving at a normal speed in like a week. But Jamie knows what I look like when I walk, when my back's out. It's very senior-esque. Well, I feel bad for you, so I hope you feel better, but it is appropriate for today's topic because we're talking about slow finishers, guys that have had some second-half issues, guys like Nick Chubb,

at least this past season in 2022. Nick Chubb, DeAndre Swift, Chris Olave, a couple guys that we'll touch on, Dallas Goddard, Ramondre Stevenson. So we'll dive into those guys. Got a lot of news and notes to get to as well. But obviously, you know, we like to promote our other shows here. So make sure you're checking out the first from the guys from the Pick 6 podcast from the first Pick podcast. You know, Ryan Wilson is one of the hosts of the Pick 6 podcast there and does FFT appearances on our show as well.

Rick Spielman, former Vikings general manager. Those guys are getting you set for the nfl draft for sure he drafted guys for the vikings like adrian peterson dalvin cook justin jefferson so a big part of the fantasy community as well so those guys have a brand new podcast it's called uh focused on the nfl draft called with the first pick they're at the nfl combine right now so they're gonna have a lot of news and notes coming out of that but they'll give you some mock drafts they'll give you a lot of player profiles and they'll get you set for the upcoming NFL draft so it's a great listen Rick and Ryan do a fantastic job again with the first pick podcast check it out wherever podcasts are found before we get into the news before we

get into the topic of today with the second half uh poor finishers the second half slumpers as Adam called them got a lot of news and notes to get to as well so let's start with what Ravens general manager Eric DaCosta said about Lamar Jackson that they expect to have him back he wants him back said you don't have a team if you don't have a quarterback so uh Dave at this point for dynasty managers with Lamar Jackson or just looking ahead to the upcoming season with Lamar Jackson is he locked in now as a potential top five guy thinking that he's going to play with Baltimore is there still a little uncertainty knowing that he may drag this out wanting that guaranteed money?

Well, he's, he's going to get a guaranteed year if they franchise them. So that, and it's going to be a lot of money, especially if they use the exclusive tag, it'll be North of 40 million bucks. So I think he'll be relatively happy with that,

but very unhappy with the idea of not having that long-term deal, not having the deal that Deshaun Watson had. I don't know if I'm ready to call him top five. There's still going to be some things to shake out. You want to call him top seven? I'm good with it. Top five? Not yet. I'm not there yet. There's way too much risk in his profile for me to go top five right now. For starters, it's the injury risk, what we've seen with our own eyes. But secondly, it's the risk of that Ravens offensive line. I know they drafted a center Linderbaum the first round last year, and he was pretty good, but that Ravens offensive line has been downgraded for a few years. Now it hasn't been the same as what it was Ronnie Staley in and out of the lineup. They've been worse at guard. I know Zeitler's over there. He's okay. So that scares me. And then just the idea of going to a new

offensive system for the first time in Lamar Jackson's career, a lot of what he did from a fantasy standpoint for it was so successful during his MVP season was based in my mind on Roman scheme and Roman skillset at the time calling those plays. I know it fizzled out there for Greg Roman. Now they're trying to change things, but that doesn't make me all like excited about it. It makes me a little nervous about it. So I think this is a risky profile for a top five quarterback. I think the one thing though, if you're looking at it from a dynasty perspective, it's still a good time maybe to get him all his values a little bit lower because of the uncertainty. So if you are in the market to try and get Lamar Jackson stuff to play, pay a pretty penny, but probably a little bit cheaper

than you would have gotten him certainly a year ago or even a couple years ago. Dan, I'm sure as a NFC East guy, you will like this quote from Mike McCarthy, who sounds like he's taking football back several years.

Here's what he said at the NFL Combine. I've been where Kellen Moore has been. Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up, but I want to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense. I think when you're a coordinator,

you know, but you're in charge of the offense. Being a head coach and a play caller, you're a little more in tune with everything. I don't desire to be the number one offense in the league. I want to be the number one team in the league with a number of wins in a championship. And if we've got to give up some production and take care of the ball

better to get that, then that's what we'll do because we have a really good defense. So, obviously, he wants to run the ball more. We kind of got that impression when they let Kellen Moore leave to go to the Chargers. So we don't know who the running back is going to be. Ezekiel Elliott may not be back with the team. If he is, that's probably a bad thing for that Cowboys offense and a bad thing for fantasy managers. Tony Pollard is a free agent. And as part of this, Stephen Jones, the son of Jerry Jones, who's part of the personnel staff

there, said that they're not opposed to taking a running back early in the NFL draft. So looking at this right now, the starting running back, Dan, for the Cowboys, is this somebody that we're going to rush up draft boards if they go and get somebody in the draft, or if they bring back Tony Pollard, we've talked about this on the show, that he could be a first-round pick. If it's Zeke and only Zeke, I don't know how many people are going to be excited about that,

but just your take on the Cowboys' backfieldfield right now knowing that this is what Mike McCarthy's approach seems to be it's going to go the opposite way for me when it comes to running games in fantasy football I am more likely to follow a team that is scoring a lot and moving the ball a lot than a team that's committing to the run quote unquote because I think the first way will lead to more scoring for the running backs mostly by having more red zone opportunities. And I've seen it fizzle out already with Mike McCarthy calling the plays and leading the rounds. He literally almost ended the career of one of the most generational arm talents we've

seen in the, at least in my lifetime and Aaron Rogers, they had to revive it with, uh, that by moving on from him. So this doesn't make me happy. I also feel like that Cowboys offensive line, Tyler Smith was a good pack last year. It's working out, but everyone else on that line is getting older and they're not as effective as they used to be. So I don't like this at all for the Cowboys fantasy players.

Dave, this with the passing game, how much does this make you a little bit concerned about the ceiling for CD lamb, the ceiling for Dak Prescott? We don't know if Dalton Schultz is coming back soon right now. Michael Gallup's the number two receiver there, but just the passing game, knowing that Kellen Moore wanted to light up the scoreboard.

It was great. But Mike McCarthy apparently doesn't believe that. So your thoughts just on the passing game there in Dallas. He says it like the Cowboys were one of the past heaviest teams in the league last year. They threw the ball 52.3% of the time. They were actually 10th in run rate last year. They threw the ball 52.3% of the time. They were actually 10th in run rate last year at 47.7%. And he wants to run it more. I think it's more of a statement

about him trying to just win the time of possession. Uh, they were 24th there, 29, 20. I think that's what he's looking to do. This might be more of a sign that they're going to try and slow down their offense and not play as much fast pace up tempo, like a lot of other teams do. So that's horrible for fantasy. Yeah. That's what I think will end up happening. I'd be surprised if they were even more run heavy next year and they were like at 50% run and 50% pass. That would surprise me. But what wouldn't surprise me if they were, you know, bottom 10 in plays per game, they were top 10 in plays per game this past year. I bet that I bet that's the strategy. Now they're going to try and slow things down a little bit more and not rush it on the field. A couple of news items that we'll get

to Cardinals head coach, Jonathan Gannon saying that he's not sure if Deandre Hopkins will be on the team in 2023. That's clearly been sort of the sentiment following last season. So we'll find out where he goes. That will clearly determine his fantasy value. Panthers head coach, Frank Wright said Derek Carr is still in his prime and has a five-year window.

I'm not sure if any of us will be buying that. Adam will be. Our resident Derek Carr guy, not on the show today, not a mazer. So we'll see where Derek Carr ends up he did have meetings with the Panthers with the Saints and with the Jets in Indianapolis so it seems as if it's a three-team race to acquire Derek Carr we'll find out again probably a couple weeks where Derek Carr will be playing this is interesting the Chargers uh Tom Telesco the general manager they're saying they're going to

keep Keenan Allen expecting to have him on the roster. So, Dave, that's great for Justin Herbert. It's probably still very good for Keenan Allen. But just in terms of the Chargers passing game, where do you come out on this news that Keenan Allen stays there and what that means for maybe the limited upside of Joshua Palmer? Yeah, it's bad news for Joshua Palmer. It's really good news for Keenan Allen because as long as he's healthy, he's got a role in that offense. He should still be able to command plenty of targets. I think he goes's got a role in that offense. He should still be able to command plenty of targets. I think he goes back up to being in that number two receiver range and full PPR. I don't know if it'll be that high in non PPR.

And, uh, Hey, this is the flip side of the Mike McCarthy news. If he got rid of Kellen Moore because he threw too much, well, that's going to be really good for the chargers. But I think we knew that already. Yeah. LA was already second in the league in pass rate at 65%. So there should be a lot of opportunities for Keenan Allen. Should be a lot of opportunities for Mike Williams.

Don't think it's going to be a very good thing for Joshua Palmer, but Palmer is still worth drafting. He's going to be a late round pick. Yep, should be fun to see. And again, we'll see what the contract, how it's reworked, because it's a very high cap number for Keenan Allen. So I'm sure that will be the following news that we get in the next couple of weeks. Dolphins GM Chris Greer said there's some concerns about Tua Tungavailoa's durability.

Understandably so. They have until May 1st to make a decision on his fifth year option. He also said, Chris Greer, that the Dolphins are open to bringing back Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson. So we'll see what happens there. That's the team that you see a lot of potential free agents going to or a free agent going to, or maybe the Dolphins will be in the draft market to get a running back. But we could see maybe one of these guys paired with a young running back

coming back there. So again, something to keep an eye on moving forward. Lions general manager Brad Holmes said both the team and Jamal Williams are interested in a return this season. Williams is a free agent. And then also, I don't know if you guys talked about this on Wednesday, but what Dan Campbell said about deandre swift and limiting his workload so dan if williams comes back and swift is still in this limited role to whatever

extent campbell said if you guys didn't talk about this again it was uh we had a plan in place for him last year in terms of his workload we'll probably have another similar plan they want to keep him healthy and keep him on the field so So when you look at this Lions backfield, Dan, what's your approach to that situation? Yeah, my approach to that situation is similar to what it was last year. Look, everything on paper screams that DeAndre Swift is prime for this breakout. He has the best play call in the NFL and Ben Johnson, a great offensive line, but they don't use him in the red zone and they want to continue

to limit him. So he's clearly never going to be that workhorse that we need him to be for fantasy football success. And I don't want to overstate the Lions offense. It's not like the biggest juggernaut in football, despite having a great old line and play caller. So I'm going to stay away from Deandre Swift. His price will always rise to a point where it's not going to be good for me. And maybe Jamal Williams is someone I have to consider if I'm really going with that zero running back approach that I sometimes tend to use, or even the hero running back approach. Touchdowns, touchdowns, and more touchdowns. Jamal Williams, I think he either led the NFL in rushing touchdowns or he was tied for first and it's just amazing the year that he had.

And I think staying in Detroit would be the best thing for him. Again, not the best thing for DeAndre Swift. Uh, last news item, we don't need to touch on this one, but Colts General Manager Chris Ballard saying that the Colts have not decided yet on Matt Ryan's future. We know the Colts are going to find a new quarterback after what happened last year. I'm sure that's something that they will address in the NFL draft. All right, we'll take a quick break right now. We come back and get into the second half, slow finishers, and some problems for fantasy managers with some of the stars that did not have good second half seasons in 2022. Metrolinx and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton

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And whatever the heck red light therapy is. It's definitely not bad. Don't overthink how you hydrate. Life's full of choices. Smart water is a simple one. All right. And we're back. So let's talk about some of these finishers. So the guys, again, that we're back. So let's talk about some of these finishers.

So the guys, again, that we're looking at here, we're talking about Nick Chubb, we're talking about Chris Olave, DeAndre Swift in particular, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Dallas Goddard, Ramondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara, Jalen Waddell, Dave Njoko. I'm not sure we'll get to all of them in length, but those are the players that we're looking at. So, Dave, I'll start with you.

Of those guys, and I think you have the names in front of you, so if you need me to repeat it, I can, but which one concerned you the most of their second half slow finish to what could be hopefully a rebirth or getting back on track in 2023? Can I pick two or do I got to give you one? Sure, you can pick two. I'm going to put two because they're both older running backs. Alvin Kamara and Nick Chubb are the two that worry

me. Kamara a little more so than Chubb, but they're kind of in the same vein just because of their age and because of what we saw last year. In the case of Chubb, he averaged 12.2 PPR points per game once Deshaun Watson came back. That includes 23.2 PPR points in week 18. Before that game, it was 10 flat, 10.0 PPR points per game for Nick Chubb. Was this just him getting used to the offense? Was it the offense changing with Watson and defenses kind of adjusting and the Browns not able to counterpunch? I'm not sure. It makes me a little nervous about Chubb.

And I still think I'm going to take him in round two, late round two in full PPR. But it's something that I've got to keep in mind. And it's something that, honestly, I might be able to ask about this offseason and get an idea of how Cleveland might rectify it for 2023. Kamara is a pretty obvious story in this case. 10.7 PPR points per game in his final eight.

That's bad for him. He averaged 22.3 in weeks five through nine. That's a little bit better than what you'd expect from A to the K, but we know that there's a suspension looming. We don't know how long it is. The offense is changing, and it looks like without having Drew Brees there or maybe any quarterback that loves to throw to the running back and is part of a consistent game plan, he's going to struggle.

And then you tack Taysom Hill on top of that, and he's losing short yardage touchdowns. I'm nervous to take Alvin Kamara, regardless of round. We're so used to taking him in like round one or round, maybe early round two last year. Jamie, Dan, I've got him in round five right now. I'm staying away. I know that there's high upside, but with suspension and everything else I talked about

Taysom Hill, the quarterbacks, the offense and him getting older, he's a pass. Dan, what about you? Same question. Who concerns you the most? I mean, Dave took the two that definitely concerned me the most. So in, in honor of not just repeating what Dave said, I'll go with kind of my third and fourth options. One we already discussed, but I want to just touch on again, Deandre Swift again, last year, supposed to be the breakout year for Swift. He was a lot of

fantasy analysts were in on him. They felt like he was the best value in that range that Dave was discussing that one, two turn. And he got like the best scenario that could have played out for him, a breakout from the offensive, uh, system standpoint, from a play calling standpoint, from a design standpoint, the offensive line hit its peak. And yet what happened with the Andre slip? We still didn't, he still didn't reach his potential that we've been talking about. So to me, there isn't much of a case left for him. And I know what same thing will happen again this year, he'll get boosted up draft boards and probably not to that same range but maybe into the mid-two range so after those two would be swift and then one more i might want to throw on there here i'm just looking at our list

of guys would probably be um we can go we can go here with i like some of these guys so i probably have the opposite we just one is fine i mean you don't have to be concerned about all these guys the same length. Yeah, some of these guys I like, actually. Make a lot of sense. Now, of the list, again, and I'll read the names to you guys. So it's Nick Chubb, DeAndre Swift, Chris Olave, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Dallas Goddard, Ramondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara, Jalen Wall, David Njoku.

Of the ones that struggled in the second half, and again, we'll get more in-depth on why they struggled, but of the ones who struggled, which one of those do you say, okay, not even a big deal. I'm not even worried about it. Their second half struggles, just the by-product of bad play injuries, things around them falling apart. Dan, I'll start with you. None of these guys concern you. You're not worried about their second half struggles at all. So it's one you actually didn't mention, but, but we have them in the notes and he did struggle in the second half. It's Chris Olave, the rookie wide receiver from the saints. I think for me

with Olave, a lot of those second half struggles were quarterback play related. And in a lot of ways, people say, oh, did he hit the rookie? Well, I don't think so. When I watched him, he still looked like the same receiver who has that ability to separate both over the top and in the intermediate range. And I think what happened with the Saints there

is they got into a weird kind of area of the season where they were just like, we can grind these wins out, like 10 to 13 to 10. They did one against Philly where they had bigger, not bigger, Gardner Minshew, where they had an upset there. And it was just like a weird game. And so I think that will change this off season when they change and upgrade at quarterback.

And that will be a big help for Olave. The talent is there. The air yards were there. There were so many factors in his profile as far as what kind of player he is there. The air yards were there. There were so many factors of in his profile as far as what kind of player he is that get me excited about him. And I think all the reasons like the second half struggle actually helped keep his ADP down a little bit for some of those rookies. So he's somebody I'll definitely be buying in. Dave. So just in react, I would, my knee jerk reaction was to say a lot of a as well, but Dan brought up how the Saints won games last year

in that grind-it-out, lean-on-your-defense type of style. For this episode, we can call it the Mike McCarthy style because I think that's what McCarthy's looking for in Dallas. But if they win with that and they don't have a great solution at quarterback this offseason, they might do that again. And that could hurt Chris Olave becoming a top 12 receiver. So we're drafting him somewhere between like wide receiver 15 and 24 off the board.

And I don't, I feel like we're drafting him a little bit too close to his ceiling, but it also has to be said, he averaged 14.5 PPR points in his first 10 games in the National Football League, and then he fell below nine in his final six. So if it's going to be more like those final six, and he was dealing with some injuries too, he missed a game with an injury.

If it's going to be like that, he's going to be a bust. It's hard to see him being a bust, though, because of that speed and just that overall smoothness, that instant acceleration that he has. I want to see who's sharing the backfield with Ramondre Stevenson in new England. And if it's, if it's nobody of major significance, then I bet we see the guy that we saw in weeks three through nine, Jamie, do you remember what he averaged in those weeks when he was basically dominating the touches in that backfield in New England? No, but that was what Damian Harris hurt, and it was certainly

significant. A big part of it was his work in the passing game, which is what kind of led to his second-half struggles, which is what's the concern. Is he going to be that guy? We spent some time talking about Pierre strong and what his potential role could be in the passing game, or is there somebody else brought in? I would not be surprised. I think if I'm not mistaken, um, before Fournette re-signed with Tampa Bay or ended up in Tampa Bay, Belichick talked with them. So that could be a pairing that we see if he decides to go there and sort of be the compliments or a reminder Stevenson. So yeah, I think that's a, that's a fair one. Sure did. his final eight. I don't have how many targets per game he had in those final eight. I can look it up for you. One of you can look it up, but I don't think it was particularly high.

And I wonder if that's a reflection of what the coaches think of them, where they, they see a reminder and they go, that guy's got to be our one, a, the running downs back the shore yardage goal line guy. We know he can play on third downs. We know that we can throw to him.

We can throw to him on first and second down too, but not on third downs. We know that we can throw to them. We can throw to them on first and second down too, but not on third downs. They've consistently used a separate back on third downs. They've rarely, I think Corey Dillon might've been the last guy where when there haven't been injuries, they've relied on a three down guy in that backfield. So I I'm real curious to see the moves that the Patriots make a running back. Fournette does make sense. They love getting those veteran guys who can come in and play. And if it's Fournette, we know that Fournette can play three downs as well. He may end up being the guy that plays in those passing down situations. And I almost view it, what you said, Dave,

as like a reflection of the coaching staff in a different way. Like last year, the Patriots had whatever was going on there. A former defensive coordinator slash head coach running an offense with help from a special teams coordinator slash head coach and Joe Judge and Patricia. So is it a reflection of what they view in the player or is it just coaches in over their heads? And now they have competent coaching and coordinating that offense.

And I think potentially it could lead to them realizing like, hey, Andre Stevenson is arguably our best playmaker on offense, especially if Jacoby Myers leaves in free agency. And he's supposed to get insane contract as free agency, just based on the market. So that could almost lead me to believe he has more in store for him. And one thing that's been constant about the Patriots through the years, no matter how many coordinators they've changed,

no matter how many running backs have come through that, that run game has always worked. They do a really good job coaching up the block in there with the offensive line. They let tons of guys who are high-name offensive linemen hit free agency, and then they replace them like this. And so I think whatever they're doing, it's a power gap system. It works.

So I feel confident about Ramondre pretty much unless they draft somebody high, which they're probably not going to do at running back. I think just in terms of these guys here, I'm going to give you their potential draft round and you tell me good value or bad value. Then we get more in depth on this, but Adam wanted to know who could present the greatest draft value based on their bad finishes.

So Nick Chubb, I think, and we've seen in our drafts goes late round to good value, bad value. Fine. Fine. I'm on potential. Good value. Potential. Good value. Fine. Fine. I'm on potential good value. Potential good value, fine. Okay, so you're okay with that

as a bad second. I finished. Guy bouncing back. DeAndre Swift, let's say round three. Bad for me. Agreed. Bad. How about round four? How late are we talking? One of the last six. I'm staying bad.

I'll lean fine. Chris Olave, pick 38. Fine. But I can see the case for bad for sure that high. Right. Bad quarterback, then it could be a problem. Could also be really good if it's a good quarterback. Let's say round seven. Who was the guy you said? Dunn Peoples Jones? Dunn Peoples Jones You know, let's say round seven.

Who was the guy you said? Don Peoples-Jones. Don Peoples-Jones. No, that's bad. That's horrible. Round seven? You're getting a lot closer to okay. Maybe even good value in round 10.

I think people are going to get excited just based on Deshaun Watson's pull-off season as a secondary. Right. Dallas Goddard, round five. Five. No, that's bad. We just did a draft where he was picked in round three. The listeners took him in round three.

Well, that was an auto pick, though. It's more fun to say that. I say round three. I think round five is still a bad pick. I think that's still too high. The problem with Goddard is I love the talent, but it's how does that situation get better from a fantasy standpoint unless there's injuries?

There you go. Well, I mean he was still pretty good though when all those other guys were there. So we'll get into that a little bit. Relative to tight ends for sure. He was good. Yes, that's fair. Ramondre Stevenson round three. Oh no, that's not going to be good. And I like Stevenson, but it's round three. No, I think that's pretty going to be good. I like Stevenson, but round three?

No. I think that's pretty good. I can't do three. If he's the only guy there, he's going to go in round two. He might go in round one, James. He'll never be the only guy there, though, in a Belichick backfield. Alvin Kamara, you said round five. Dave, I'll say round four.

So round four is no good for you. Let's assume no suspension. Oh, then said round five. Dave, I'll say round four. So round four is no good for you. Let's assume no suspension. Oh, then maybe round four would be okay. I'm still on bad. I've been off Kamara. I didn't draft Kamara anywhere last year. I've been off Kamara for a while. Jalen Waddell, round two.

That's so dependent on the two-way situation. I'll say two as the quarterback. You know what? Two as the quarterback, and he's coming in. Yeah, that's the problem. He's coming in fine's the quarterback. You know what, Tua's the quarterback and he's coming in. Yeah, that's the problem. Like he's coming in fine and healthy, but one concussion and that's it. But his numbers with Tua last year versus numbers without Tua are the most insane difference of any, I think, fantasy player. It's like it's a 22.6 with Tua.

Don't quote me on that, but it's in the 20s. And without him, it's like in the eights. So points per game. So if Tua's coming in fully fully healthy i don't think it's bad value but it's just like how long can two last i don't know well what if we talk about that what if the dolphins end up getting a really nice backup yes okay that's then you might feel a little bit better like what if that's the route if you call it jamis winston a really nice backup quarterback you might feel better about or even a even a Jacoby Brissett, to some extent, is interesting.

That would be something. Not great, but he helped Cooper. Well, I mean, look, it's... At times. We don't know what these guys would have done over a full span of games that Tua missed if Teddy was still healthy, because Teddy was a lot of time. True. And obviously, he's a competent backup.

It's not Skyler Thompson and just the youth of what was there. It could be, you know, and Andy Dalton has brought in a Jacoby Brissett. Like you mentioned, I don't know if he wants to come back to Miami, but you know, they, they could give themselves, you know, if, if this guy doesn't land a starting spot, Baker Mayfield, you know, he could look at it and say, okay, Tua is not going to play a full season. I'm going to go to a situation like that. You know, it could be any one of those, those type of quarterbacks. So again we'll we'll dive into a little bit more and then david the joke was probably going to be let's say somewhere between tight end 10 and tight end 12 i'll say around 10 for him fine uh i guess that's fine so the best value of these guys that we mentioned was probably a lave to me still i still think he has lead winning upside potentially but you said around three right you're not getting good value what's I don't know if any were great values though I guess people's Jones is based on him going so late and what the upside yeah that's kind of cheating by putting him in with all these other guys are gonna take another quick break right now we come back and get more in depth on these second half slow finishers and

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Must be legal drinking age. All right, so we're back. So let's start with Nick Chubb. So he was running back 15 per game from weeks 10 through 18, but in his first eight games, he was a monster. 149 carries, 841 yards, 10 touchdowns, 10 catches, 70 yards. Average 5.6 yards per carry. And he was on pace for 317 carries, 1,787 yards, and 21 touchdowns.

So just an absolute star. And then we saw what happened after Deshaun Watson came back. And some of the thought, I think, from the Browns camp was we've got to get Deshaun Watson going and make him feel comfortable going into next season when they realized there weren't going to be a playoff team. So a child did not have a rushing touchdown in any of his last six games. He did catch a touchdown in week 18. And that was the longest streak of his career without a touchdown on the ground, those six games where he failed to score.

So Dan, when you look at Nick Chubb, obviously Dave gave his his reasons why he's very concerned about him, but Dave also said he would take him in the second round. So we'll see where he ends up going in terms of Chubb next year, which may be his final, you know, big season. I think he's going to be 28 in the middle of next season.

Right. Can he still be that workhorse potentially lead the NFL and rushing yards type of guy behind this good offensive line with what might be a better offense. Deshaun Watson is Deshaun Watson. Yeah. Chubb is actually someone out of this entire list. I'm probably more optimistic on than I guess the rest of them. And I think the case for Chubb would be threefold. The first

would be, and most important to me would be that offensive line has all of the same pieces that made up the unit two years ago. That was the best in the NFL, but they were injured last year and they weren't blocking the same. So that's the first one they get back on track. They block. Well, the second one is cream hunt likely to go to another team this off season. We don't know where he's going to go, but it seems very unlikely. He's going to resign with the Browns. I know they have during, they have players behind him. They might sign, resign Johnson. I don't know what they're going to do there. They're always going to add backs, but that takes away a lot of the potential, uh, you know, stealing and the red

zone, things of that nature. And, but most importantly, of course, is Ken Deshaun Watson, take that step forward and look more like that player. If he is that offense is a lot better, which is only going to help Nick Chubb. So I think there is a case for Chubb potentially, but you brought up a big thing here, which I, you know, it's hard not to lean on, which he's turning 28. I don't really like December though. It's not till December. Sure.

So even 27, though, I don't really, the age they say now is like 26.4. You want to like in between the 26 and 27 season there's a big there starts to be a tend to be a drop off at this running back position from a fantasy production standpoint so i don't want to make too many investments in those backs past age 27 season and in ppr clearly again the reception total even though when he's right what he was doing was on pace for uh in his first nine games still was only on pace for 21 catches and we know deshaun watson is basically not going to throw to running backs. He does not throw to running back slot.

So again, I think you'll still see him in the round two range. We'll see who they add behind him. But I think one more season, and we did see the 27-year-old backs this year, for the most part, held up. You know, in somewhat good standing. Derrick Henry was fine. Austin Eckler was fine. You know, Dalvin Cook still okay, not great.

But I think Nick Chubb's skill set and how they use him will hopefully still be okay. But we'll see who's the complementary back there. Dave, I'll give you DeAndre Swift since Dan's not exactly in on him. I know you're a little bit pessimistic as well. But he was running back 17 per game from weeks 10 through 18. But he started out as a monster. Week 1, 15 carries, 144 yards, and a touchdown, three catches, 31 yards. That was 26.5 fantasy points against the Eagles,

and we thought he was on his way to being that superstar. But he only had two games with more than eight carries the rest of the season. He dealt with the injuries, as we know, once again, the shoulder, the ankle. There were problems. And then week 8 through 18, after return from the injuries, 72 carries, 311 yards, four touchdowns, 40 catches, 312 yards, and two touchdowns. So he's on pace for a 62-catch season, which we love. However, not necessarily sustainable because we know the injuries have been a problem for him each of the last two years.

So he scored 12.2 or more PPR points in six of the 11 games to close the season. So not horrible, but obviously not superstar caliber like we saw. And again, Jamal Williams may be back in Detroit. It was like a number two fantasy running back. He averaged 13.1 PPR points per game in his last nine compared to 14.6 in his first five. You mentioned the super hot start that he got off to when he came back from

that injury. And I think it was multiple injuries in October. He only played 40% of the snaps or more four times in 11 games. He averaged 10.1 touches. That includes 3.6 catches. He averaged 56.6 total yards per game, had six touchdowns. I think that's the expectation now, guys. I would expect him to not play 17 games.

Hopefully he plays somewhere in the neighborhood of like 14 games, but he's going to be right around 10, 12 touches a week. He's going to get around three, four catches a game. And he basically needs to score, have a breakaway runner catch in order to come through as a useful part of your fantasy lineup. So you want to call him a boomer, a bust, but I think every week he's going to lean a little bit toward bus compared

to boom. Even if Jamal Williams is gone, someone's going to be taking your yardage goal line work and Holy cow. Look at the receiving core. They have, they might become one of the more past friendly teams in this league. Even with Jared golf. Yeah.

Golf was pretty good at times last year. He could take a step forward and be consistently good this year. I really like their, I really like the makeup of their team. And I think Swift's role is complimentary passing down style back. He could be though, if he stays healthy, I don't know, 60 catches, but certainly north of 50 and that type of player in ppr again you have to factor in the injuries but you know we said this about davin cook and he finally stayed healthy we said this about austin eckley finally stay healthy you know

these guys that once they're able to put it together and he is entering i think this is going to be his fifth year so they have to make a decision on what or his fourth year they have to make a decision on what they're going to do not that they have a fifth year option but it'll be heading into free agency yep so they have to make a decision on what they're going to do. Not that they have a fifth-year option, but it will be heading into free agency. So they have to make a decision. And could he have the Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley? All of a sudden, I'm healed as the money's on the line. And that breakout season does happen for him because the talent is definitely there. So I think at the right price, he's still worth buying into.

So, Dan, you're out on round four, right, you said? Yes. Where's the earliest you would buy in? Well, you made a, you made a point right there that I thought was interesting and something that I hadn't considered and it can bring me somewhat back in on it, that it's a contract year. And we just, we we've seen at this position specifically running back, I tend to buy into the contract year stuff more than any other position. You mean you brought up two great cases with especially Josh Jacobs, but even with all that, I, I, I struggled

to see the ceiling. I think as Dave broke it down, like, is there a path for him to potentially be the super high reception PPR guy? Maybe, but now we're talking about this offense almost in my mind devolving because they want to be more vertically, vertically oriented and use the middle of the field with Jameson Williams there. And then they're going to go back toward kind of dumping day down to the running back or featuring the running back a bunch in the passing game, which really we haven't seen all that much of since Anthony Lynn was there calling those plays.

So, and I think Ben Johnson's different kind of, so I don't, that's the ceiling. Cause we don't have the red zone role. So now it just feels like it's either that or the big playability. I don't, I don't see the reason to buy into him other than the talent,

which hasn't been consistent in my, because he can't stay on the field. So I don't know. It just feels like to me this is the type of player I just avoid altogether because he's never going to drop anywhere past round four, right? Because someone's going to want to buy in on the potential hype, and so it just won't be me, I don't think. Here's what Dan Campbell said at the combine. He's a very talented player.

He's one of those guys that could take it to the house from anywhere on the field we thought we had a recipe going into the year it didn't work out he got a little bit banged up but at the end of the year he started to feel better his production went up we're going to start all over from scratch again let's find another way to see if we can get him good see if another kind of way another let's see if let's find another way to see if we can help him stay on the field what can we do better by him because he's too talented to not have out there he's an explosive athlete so it sounds like they're going to have limited touches for him again and and to your point jared golf will be the quarterback pointer brad holmes they might address the position in the draft but i don't think that's going to be

a starter so golf most likely the quarterback there yes let's talk about chris alave so he was wide receiver 31 per game from weeks 10 through 18 and as you alluded to the saints became one of the best defensive teams in the nfl and very conservative so his bad finish was 65 or fewer yards in five straight games and six of his last seven games to end the season he did suffer a concussion during that stretch as well had six or fewer targets in five of his last seven games from week 10 on though new orleans went four and four they ran the fewest plays in the nfl scored the second fewest points in the nfl ahead of only the jets they were 26 and pass rate and on defense they allowed the fewest yards per

play in the nfl so their defense really stepped things up offense got very conservative again it was andy dalton as the quarterback and a lot of what chris olave did early in the season was clearly based on the start with jamis winston so if chris olave does have let's say derrick car let's put let's put him as the quarterback in New Orleans. Does he have the chance to be this third round pick that we've seen him go in some of these drafts? Or is that going to be a little bit too risky because it's Derek Carr, despite what Frank Reich says? I don't think he has five good years left. And despite what the Jets say, I don't think he's going to the Hall of Fame. I thought you were going to say, despite what Adam Azer says, I don't think he's going to go to the Hall of Fame.

They're more lofty about Carr than Adam is. Yeah, somehow. Just look at the other options that they have. Mazer says, I don't think he's going to go to the Hall of Fame. They're more lofty about Carr than Adam is. Somehow. Just look at the other options that they have. Yeah. Hey, I think Carr would be okay for Chris Olave. That's certainly an upgrade from what he had in his first season. And it's basically the combination of he's got to stay healthy, and he's got to be part of an offense that doesn't get conservative.

And if they've got Derek Carr and they make an investment in Derek Carr, that would suggest that they're not going to start the year being a conservative offense that tries to win with, you know, Taysom Hill gaining five yards at a time and leaning on the defense and winning games that are under 30 total points. That sounds like an offense that will try and actually throw, you know, they've got a lot of speed on that team. It's not just a lobby.

Rashid Shaheed proved that he could play. I'm sure they'll add somebody else. Jawan Johnson has breakout potential. When we talked about second year tight ends, we did not talk about Jawan Johnson because he was a third year tight end last year, but he's got some potential. I think they try and tap into that with Derek Carr as their quarterback, if Carr is their quarterback. To answer the question, James, yeah, he would be a third-round pick, maybe closer to the end of round three than the beginning, but that's where he'd end up going, and I think I'd be okay with it.

We had this conversation on Monday's show about sophomore wide receivers, and Heath is very high on Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Drake London. I think he also has Christian Watson up there as well. So when you look at those four guys, unless I'm missing somebody, I think those are going to be the first four sophomore receivers drafted. How do they rank for you? Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Christian Watson. Well, let's just say for the sake of this argument, Derek Carr does sign with the Saints

because to me, that's by far and away the highest ceiling for Chris Olave. He would actually rank as my number one there because one thing about Derek Carr, he did not have a great season last year, but he did throw the ball a lot downfield and intermediate range. And he threw it pretty successfully downfield. That's perfect for Olave as the air yard specialist is the guy who kind of broke records as a rookie. As far as air yards in that single game, he showed something that no one else in this class showed. If car goes there, he would be my number one, my number two. It's a really tough decision because I like all four of these players a lot. And I guess with Wilson, it is a lot dependent on what they do at quarterback. Same thing, really. If somehow it's Aaron Rogers, that's, that's even better. Derek Carr as well.

If they can't get either of those two, I downgrade, but I really like both Christian Watson and Drake Lennon. Anyone who's heard me at any point on this show knows that I was ringing the bell for Watson since we, since I wrote up his draft profile last April, that's just the type of talent I believe in very DK Met Metcalf-esque in my mind. Doesn't run at the full route tree, but the ones he runs well. The routes he runs, he runs really well. Of course, that does depend on Aaron Rodgers coming back. And then Drake London is a guy who I think has such good film out there, but it was so buried because Marcus Mariota was so freaking bad.

And then once they turned over to Desmond Ritter, they ran a pretty conservative offense. So rankings, if I had to do it all, I'll probably be higher than consensus on all four, but I would probably go a lobby with car would be first highest ceiling. Christian Watson with Rogers would be second Garrett Wilson with Rogers or car would be third. And then London last Dave, same question. What's the order for you?

Let me just list the orders. I have it right now. Okay. It's Wilson one, Olave two, Watson three, George Pickens four, Drake London five. Wow. So I've got Pickens over London. Obviously the quarterback situations are going to impact for these five receivers. The only receiver that we know who his quarterback will definitely be is Pickens. And it goes without saying that if Atlanta makes a move at quarterback and they bring in somebody serious, whether it's a rookie or, you know,

they get one of these good veterans that are out there, London would move ahead of Pickens pretty easily. But if it's Desmond Ritter, I'm not buying. I'm still expecting the Falcons to be more run-heavy. I'm expecting Kyle Pitts to be back. That'll hurt the target share that we saw from Drake London toward the end of last season. And then from there, it really just comes down to which quarterback is where. We can talk about Derek Carr's in New Orleans. That's fine. Who's the quarterback in New York? Is it Rodgers?

Is it Garoppolo? That stuff will matter. But if it's either of those guys or if it's Carr, those are still great upgrades over what Wilson dealt with last year. And he was over 17 PPR points per game with anybody not named Zach Wilson. So I think he's the most talented of them all. And that's why I've got him first. And I'm expecting an upgraded quarterback. That'll keep him first. It's going to be interesting.

A lot of these guys, a lot of uncertainty, but as, as we talked about with that show, the guys as rookies that get 900 plus yards receiving. Yes. It's pretty impressive what they do as sophomores. Garrett Wilson, I believe was Wilson and a lot of it.

We're both. And how about this on that note? Right. It's Wilson and a lot of it. We're really And how about this on that note, right? It's Wilson and Olave. We're really excited about them as sophomores. Two years ago at Ohio State, guess who dominated target share there, dominated yards there with those two on the field? It was Olave.

No, it wasn't. Jackson Smith and Igba by far. And so almost I think we're overthinking this, Chad. He'll be a player I'll be targeting too because we can look at all the analytics. He's going to run a fast 40, but he dominated target share with those two on the same field as him at Ohio State. That, to me, stands out. It'll be interesting to see what happened.

What happened to him from 2021 to 2022? Just injury. Just purely got injured. That's what it is? Yep. We'll see what happens there. I'm going to skip Donovan Peoples-Jones. Let's talk about Dallas Goddard because DPJ is not somebody I think that we expected much from.

So his second half finish was not necessarily a big surprise, despite the fact they didn't really have a big first half performance as well. All right, so Dallas Goddard. So he only played four games from the Weeks 10 through Week 18. He's still tied in 12 per game. He played Weeks 10, 16, 17, and 18 over that span. Jalen Hurts missed two of those games. So in those four games, though, Dallas Goddard had 19 targets.

Devontae Smith had 41 targets. A.J. Brown had 31 targets. So it wasn't exactly the same for him when he came back. Now, the target share in the postseason is a little bit different. Goddard had 18 targets in the three games. Smith had 22 targets in the three games. And A.J. Brown had 22 targets. They were all relatively the same.

But in the beginning of the season, when everybody was was healthy Dallas Goddard was still putting up very good numbers so I know Dan you alluded to this like how is the path to success there for him knowing that we typically look at tight ends that are either one and two and targets on their team and he's probably not going to have more targets over the course of the season than Devante Smith or AJ Brown but still Jalen Hurts as we saw the Super Bowl, when he needed to make a tough throw, that was the guy he was going to. And hopefully at that point, the shoulder injury was, you know, fully recovered for Dallas Goddard, and he was back to being the Dallas Goddard that we saw.

So I don't think he has the same ceiling as Kelsey or Andrews, if everything goes right for those guys. And then you start to put him in that group. I think he belongs with TJ Hawkinson and George Kittle and Darren Waller and potentially Dalton Schultz wherever he goes. So is Goddard in that group for you, or is he behind that group for you, knowing that, again, there's a lot of mouths to feed in that Philadelphia offense? He's in that group for me because I still think, like you said,

there are so many reasons to like his profile outside of the volume, and you can weigh in the volume versus being on this high scoring team, this high functioning offense. But I think for me, it just comes down to like, he's going to be a fine value pick, especially if you view it in the prism of relative to the tight end position. Cause as Dave has said in the past, and I, and I agree with him and it caused a lot of controversy in my home league. Cause I've thrown out the idea of potentially getting rid of tight end position once Kelsey retires. Cause I really liked it, but other people don't like that idea. It's part of fantasy, but it's just a matter of, is that pick worth like what to me, it's

a matter of if, is that pick worth the opportunity costs? Like the player you're giving up when you take a player like Goddard and round five or around six, cause it's never going to look bad. Cause he's going to finish probably in that, in the range of that tight end five, tight end six, tight end four. But is it making enough of an impact on your roster for me? I really only want the tight end so I think can make that like Mark Andrews 2021 type impact or what we've seen from Kelsey.

Jamie, you mentioned how many targets he had in the playoffs. He averaged what would have been 12 PPR points per game in those three playoff games, which is right in line with where he was in the first nine games of his 2022 season. 12.6. Do you guys know how many tight ends averaged over 12 PPR points per game last year? I think it was two. Well, it's more than two. Okay.

12. Or. Hawkinson, Kelsey. What am I missing here? Hawkinson and Kelsey. Yeah. Those are the easy ones. Remember the end of the season counts and the beginning of the season.

Oh, it all kettle. Yeah. That's that tight end in Baltimore. What's his name? Oh, Andrews did it. Okay.

Andrews did it. He made it because he had a great start to the four games in his first six with over 22 PPR points per game. He was an absolute beast. How does Adam put down on peopleoples-Jones on this list and not Mark Andrews? Yeah, really. That's a really good question.

But even out of all those four, right? Only one of those four was consistent for the whole season. Correct. That's crazy. Yeah. Well, Hawkinson needed the trade. Right. And then even then, it's not like his average

really boosted that much. No, he had two big spike games in there. Right. And then even then it's not like his average really boosted that much. No, he had a two big spike games in there. Yeah, he did. But he, he was a more consistent part of that offense than the one that he was in before.

Like you could tell that he was basically the number two pass catcher as soon as he got his feet on the ground in Minneapolis. And then Kittle got the huge boost with Purdy under center. So all that stuff tends to matter. And I think Goddard is probably one of those guys that we'll call safe, that he'll get you around 10.5 to 12.5 PPR points per game. But I think that's the end point, though, is that are you drafting a guy in round six, let's say, for safety because he's going to be safe

at that position? Or are you drafting him because he has the chance to win you weeks? And Dallas Goddard is probably not going to be a guy that wins you. He may win you a week or two, but he's probably not going to win you four or five weeks over the course of the season. Now, again, it's the difference between, okay, I know what I'm getting in Dallas Goddard.

I'm getting 12 points per game, which is going to be in the upper echelon of tight ends versus chasing Greg Dolchich or Chico Conquo or one of these guys that we have the upside for. But again, you're talking about maybe a five round difference because those guys may go in round 10 versus, you know, Goddard going in round five. Sure, sure, sure. I think the bigger question is who do you take first between pits and Goddard? And I I'm taking pits first because I'm going for that upside, but that's a question that fantasy managers might even want to start with. Well, it probably depends on, it probably depends on your roster build, you know? So if you start

out with a little bit more risky picks, you might want some safety at one position, knowing that, again, he's going to give you what he's going to give you. And, and Dave, to your point about the post-season numbers to those games were blocks, you know? So a lot of what he's going to give you. And Dave, to your point about the postseason numbers, two of those games were blowouts. So a lot of what he did was the Super Bowl, which boosted his average. And he was on pace for big games in the playoffs because he was a big part of the Giants game, for example. He had a big play. Right, he had a great game against the Giants.

But in terms of what his numbers were. And so I think that's something to take into account also because the Eagles could certainly still do that type of do that type of get that type of production against other teams. But I think probably, you know, it's your question about pits versus Goddard, you know, and, and, and maybe even Kittle versus Goddard, you know, Waller versus Goddard and all these guys that are going to be drafted around him. It's, it's what, you know,

what you're getting versus is the upside a little bit capped. And then we don't know what would happen if one of the receivers got hurt you know aj brown typically misses games he didn't miss games last year davante smith we know he's not exactly the the biggest of receivers if he misses any time then maybe goddard's numbers spike a little bit as a as a go-to guy for one of the best quarterbacks in football that's fair all right last guy we'll talk about here because we went into a lot of ramond j stevenson and Alvin Kamara and with the uncertainties there. I don't know. I guess we'll do two more.

So David Njoku in comparison to Dallas Goddard. So he's going to go a little bit later. How much are you going to buy into Njoku with Deshaun Watson and, you know, knowing that that receiving core, Mari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, maybe a little bit more from David Bell this year. Njoku is still going to be a big part of that Cleveland offense that should be better throwing the ball. I will like him as a late-round tight end,

who I will begin the season with and hope that he connects with Deshaun Watson. He had two good games with Watson. Good. I mean, this is really good for tight ends. 14 PPR points in week 18 and then 18.7 in uh week 14 so no i think you get a couple drops in the snow yep that's a good point and he was he was much better before then he was better with per set we had outlined during the off season the percent had a tendency to lean on tight ends we didn't necessarily see that with watson but he still

had a couple of really good games. That's the type of fantasy tight end that he is. It'll be sporadic. If you like the schedule to begin the season, great. If the Browns don't really add anything among their pass catchers, it'll make him more alluring. But overall in the season, he averaged 10 PPR points per game. That's the type of guy that you're going to go after in the double digit

rounds. So Dan, just to tie in your philosophy here, would you rather wait on a David Njoku, an Okonkwo, a Dolchitz, those types of guys, or would you, you know, go for those, that middle group of Goddard, Kittle, Pitts, I don't know if Pitts factors in because of the upside, but Goddard, Kittle, Waller, Schultz, depending on where he ends up, those type of guys.

Yeah, it's always been my philosophy at tight end to either go big or go home kind of thing. Oh, no, no, no, no. It's great or late, great or late. Great or late. I like that. Put it on a t-shirt. Great or late.

So my issue with that strategy was I tried that last year and I was heavy on great last year. I wanted to get the edge and I had some Kelsey, but I also had a lot of pits and Andrews and having a lot of pits and Andrews last year was not a fun experience. So I think I'm even leaning toward the late go later, just go home type of thing this year. Cause I'm probably not going to get Kelsey in most drafts. He's going top three, top five range.

So yeah, for me, it's definitely to, to go for the late round flyer, play the waiver wire, play the matchups on a week toto-week basis over the over the middle ground just because i think when i'm taking those guys in the middle ground and even goddard i think isn't going to go like round six they go creep up to like round four or five this year based on scarcity i am giving up potential amon raw saint browns every time i do it and i and i'm and i'm just i'd rather take the swing on finding the next amon raw saint brown it's It's probably more Christian Watson, but I know what you're saying. You know, one of those. Yeah, I guess.

Yeah. But Amon Ross was probably around four or five last year. Right. No, I know. I know what you're saying, but like, you know, just trying to put in context of what we've been talking about, you know, those guys are going in that type of range. All right.

Last guy we'll look at here is Jalen Waddle who in first, you know, start of the season. This is Dave's number. So 18.2 PPR points per game in his first nine games, 11.9 in his final eight. And obviously that was when Tua was dealing with the concussion situation and missed a lot of those games. And so, Dan, you alluded to this, you know, just the disparity about how good he was with Tua and obviously the numbers bear that out.

So assuming Tua is back and let's say he's going to, if I tell you right now, Tua's playing 14 games, Jalen Waddell is pick what for you? Tua's playing 14 games, and Jalen Waddell is pick back end round two, maybe mid-round two for me. He's right around the range of where T. Higgins was coming off the board last August in drafts, and I was happy to get T. Higgins there. It's a similar situation for me.

Great. I think with Tua playing 14 games that off, especially with Mike McDaniel bet coming back, that offense will be pretty similar to what we saw. Maybe even better with more time in that system for those who Jalen Waddle to me is a top, top, top five talent for me at the wide receiver position.

I'm a very high on his overall skillset. So yeah, to me, I'm fine taking him in that range. All right, Dave to us playing 10 games. When are you taking Jalen? Ooh, now I'm thinking it's'm fine taking him in that range. All right, Dave, Tua's playing 10 games. When are you taking Jalen Wall? Ooh.

Now I'm thinking it's got to be like a full round later, rounds three to four, somewhere in that range. So Jalen Wall, I mean, as we know, he's tied to the health of Tua or potentially with, let's say Andy Dalton's the backup there. Does that change things for you? That's bad for me. I have bad experience. We've seen Dalton in a lot of

different systems i know but yeah he's never really been except for when he had aj green and that was kind of just throwing back shoulders and balls up down the field and deep posts like he's never really been a air it out type of quarterback who's the most ideal backup backup patrick mahomes no i mean i think jamameis Winston is I was waiting for you to say no okay no I think Jameis Winston Dave brought it up earlier I really feel like Jameis Winston is the ideal backup there for fantasy just for fantasy obviously yeah no I mean look yeah it's one of those things where you want someone who's going to be aggressive and yes he's certainly that type of quarterback so uh while I'll just continue to follow the news again, Chris Greer saying at the

combine that they're, they're going to factor in his, his health when they look at his long-term future, but he's going to be the dolphin starter heading into 2023. And that will clearly hopefully help Jalen Waddle as opposed to hurt Jalen Waddle. So there's your second half slumpers, and hopefully they will be better in 2023. Adam Mazur will be back next week. We will be back as well, wrapping up a lot of stuff from the Combine. You guys excited to watch all the activities in shorts and T-shirts? I'm such a nerd that I am excited to watch the Combine. Somehow I watch this every year.

Yeah, I've been watching it for so long that I'm disappointed. It's not that exciting. Right. We'll see how Bryce Young does. He looked small in those pictures. He did look small in those pictures. Yeah. See how he does.

All right, thanks for watching. Thanks for listening. We appreciate it. Again, we'll be back next week wrapping up the Combine. Lots of fun content for you for agencies coming up. NFL Draft is coming up.

And we'll have you covered here on Fantasy Football today. For Dan, for Dave, I'm Jamie. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening.