Fantasy Football Today - WR Cheat Codes: Beyond the Box Score (06/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 10, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  We're bringing on Yahoo's Matt Harmon who studies wide receivers as much or more as anyone in the industry. Learn about his process (4:40), plus get the best advanced stats and what to know about coverage schemes from Matt and Jacob Gibbs on today's Beyond the Box Score episode. We'll get to a lot of WRs starting with Michael Pittman (7:15) and a couple of breakout candidates (14:00) according to Matt ... We'll tell you about how certain WRs do against zone coverage (24:15) and how much it matters when evaluating players for Fantasy purposes. Which WRs need to beat zone more so than man coverage? Speaking of man coverage (35:40), which WRs excel against man? ... Talking Jahan Dotson (41:00), ranking the sophomore WRs (43:45), discussing Tee Higgins (48:15), Mike Williams (54:45), Brandon Aiyuk and DeVonta Smith (59:00) and more ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

Yeah, what's up? Welcome to your, now it's pretty much weekly edition of Beyond the Box Score. Adam Azer here on a Friday morning with Jacob Gibbs. If you're watching on YouTube, welcome. YouTube.com slash fantasy football today. Please hit the like button. If you are not, you're listening to this on the weekend. And I want to thank Jacob for organizing yet another great show. Today, we're going to talk about wide receiver versus coverage data, man coverage, zone coverage, press coverage, and what you can get out of that for fantasy purposes.

Jacob, I have a random question for you, looking buff as always, but that's not my question. What is your favorite ice cream flavor, Jacob? I think I've got to go cookies and cream. I've got a soft spot for cookie dough as well. Yeah, those are good choices. Pretty standard stuff. I bring that up because you are, this is like me taking my kids to the ice cream store. That's how excited you have been for this episode and for having Matt Harmon of Yahoo on. So like, I don't know, happy birthday,

Jacob. It's a big day for you having Matt on the show. I am so psyched to, uh, to talk to Matt, uh, for sure. I think that's a great analogy. Matt, welcome. Um, yeah, Jacob's been super psyched. I'm extremely excited to have you on, thrilled to have you on. I understand you just made a big move across the country as well. How's life going for you, Matt?

Yeah. Uh, well, number one, a lot of, uh, a lot of hype to live up to with that introduction there So I'll try to deliver on this episode, I'll do my best But yeah, probably the biggest pain I've ever been scheduling a podcast Like being a scheduled guest on a podcast This particular episode, just because, yeah, I did move across the country But Jacob and I have been talking about doing this for a long time now I'm excited to chop it up today I mean I mean this is the stuff I think about talk about

all the time uh so I'm I'm hyped to talk about wide receivers in this episode yeah we're extremely excited to have you and you can just chime in what's your favorite ice cream flavor since we're doing that yeah I'm a big uh I'm a big chocolate guy extremely basic uh but you know whether it, whether it's chocolate, you know, chocolate chip cookie dough, cookies and cream. I mean, you can get me going with any type of Oreo situation. So I'm in on anything like that. You know, I'm not a big like fruit flavor ice cream type of guy. I'm just like a chocolate fan through and through.

So anything that revolves around chocolate, I'm in on. Okay. And last like silly question here before we get into the show and all the players we're going to talk about, like Jerry Judy, who seems to come up on any show that Jacob and I are on, and a lot more Christian Wilder, a lot of the younger guys as well because we're looking for breakouts here. This is more of a visual question, but what is bigger?

Maybe the audience can vote. Jacob, I don't know if you want to flex, maybe show a bicep, or Matt's water bottle, which is one of the more aggressive ones i've seen on the look at that look at that whoa you drinking all that on this show today uh no definitely not on this show today uh but yeah i you know do the show in the in in season with austin eckler and he called it uh the aquarium so i i there's no fish swimming around in this thing but uh yeah it is definitely a rather aggressive like you know listen you do that i'm always trying to drink one gallon of water a day you know it's part

of part of my whole thing um and but i i don't like when water gets warm and you know those typical like big water i mean i used to be like, you know, meathead and just drink out of the like empty milk jug type looking gallon. But obviously then it became like trendy to have the, you know, sure people have seen them with like the measures on the side, but the water gets warm at the end of the day. So I still want to be comfortable and be spoiled. I want the cold water so that i found this uh i'm not gonna listen i'm not gonna simp for the brand because they're not uh they're not paying the bills here but i found a certain brand that makes like the giant you know the insulated one oh good still in the gallon size so i don't i think this is classified as a weapon i don't know about jacob's biceps but this is definitely classified as a weapon in at least at least six of the 50 states and you can't fly with it on an airplane so you still, you've got to have it. Oh, I just figured you'd have to put it up in the overhead compartment.

All right, anyway, let's get to the show here. Matt is, of course, as I mentioned, of Yahoo Sports, and he's also the creator of Reception Perception. That is an interesting way to evaluate wide receivers that we're going to learn about as we go into the show. Jacob, what do you want to tell us about what's coming up today, who we're going to be talking about, and the types of things we're going to be breaking down? Yeah, tons of young wide receivers we're going to talk about today. I'm just so, so excited to have Matt on. Matt is somebody that I've been following his work for a long, long time. If I

were to vouch for anybody in the industry, I think Matt would be at the top of the list because I've been following him back since I was in college trying to break into the industry, back in the industry, I think Matt would be at the top of the list because I've been following him back since I was like in college trying to break into the industry back in the backyard banter days. A little shout out for any of the old heads there. Just really, really respect the work that Matt's done. And what he does is he is able to really study the wide receiver position and quantify what's happening, what a wide receiver is doing independent of the results. So a lot of the times the stuff we're looking at just in the last episode, we talked to Pat Fitzmaurice and Matt Friedman about yard per route run data. And even yard per route run data as one of the

most popular stats is focused on the results. There's so much that happens on the quarterback side of things, on the coaching side of things that influences the numbers that we get. But with Matt's data, what's so cool about it is that a lot of those outside factors don't come into play. We don't have to play guessing games about how good DJ Moore, Allen Robinson might be if they had a competent quarterback. Matt can just tell us how good they are at getting open. It's really cheat codes, reception perception is. So just so excited to have Matt on and pick his brain about all these wide receivers. You're going to get into Devonta Smith, AJ Brown, for sure. Christian Watson, you mentioned Drake

London, for sure. Just like tons of excited young guys. The wide receiver position is so cool right now. I've heard Matt mentioned that there's just so much young talent. So tons of guys to dive into. And Matt, thank you so much for joining us well I appreciate you Jacob although you did make me feel old saying you know you listen to my stuff back in in college and when you're trying to break in so very rarely do I feel like the old man but I do and I prove but I appreciate it man and yeah you're so right like even putting together a show like this and we've got a ton to talk about there's we could spend like five hours I mean again this is what I spend most of my time doing, thinking about the wide receiver position because it's just stocked right now.

I just did an article for Yahoo, like the best wide receivers ranked 25 and under, or aged 25 and under, like top 15 guys heading into week one. And you can't go through an exercise like that and not feel like you slighted somebody, you left somebody off the list. And again again that's guys that are 25 and under it's like what about the dudes that have been doing this for a long time it is uh it's a great position to talk about right now so i'm excited yeah i was reading that earlier today and i guess um let me start out because i want to talk about a lot of players and i will ask you about michael pitman he was higher on that list than usual and i think you stressed in the article, though, those are not fantasy rankings, right?

Correct. Yeah. Yeah. Just pure like ability as players. And of course, and you know, it's not to derail the entire thing here, but that is really hard, too, because how do you compare guys like that are in a certain archetype of wide receivers and that do different things than, you know, some of these other guys. So it's a tough list to make. And like I said, you can't do it without feeling like, I really slighted this one guy. But yeah, just pure ability as players, not within the context of their situations, fantasy, stuff like that. So you had Pittman 11th on this list of wide receivers under the, is it under the, I'm sorry, under the age of 25 or 25 and under? 25 and under, yeah.

That will be 25, like A.J. Brown is 25 right in this moment, but he turns 26 in June. So it was just guys that are going to be 25 and under Brown is 25 right in this moment but he turns 26 in June so it was just guys that are going to be 25 and under during the season um yeah so you have him like ahead of Amandra St. Brown what kind of a player do you think Michael Pittman is is he a guy who do you think he can make more plays I know we talked about him last week on beyond the box score someone who we thought was just misused with the extremely low a dot of basically everyone on the Colts last year. And I think you call, you know, we talked about him being in the intermediate range with our guests last week, but, um, you know, from a fantasy standpoint, I'm not very high on him

because of the Anthony Richardson factor, but what do you think about Michael Pittman? Why was he, he was, I don't know if he was higher on this list than I expected. I hadn't really thought about the list, but, uh, just that one jumped out to me ahead of Amandra St. Brown ahead of Drake London ahead of Jahan Dotson again in not in fantasy rankings but Matt your thoughts on Michael Pittman I'm such a big Michael Pittman fan um mostly because I do love these guys that are really good in the intermediate range you know going into last season I called him a kind of a hybrid in in reception perception like if you look at his profile compared to these two guys sort of like a hybrid of Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson when he was at his prime because we you know we could

definitely see the big perimeter wide receiver stuff you know the ability to work downfield in contested situations but I also think he is a incredible route runner on like slants digs curls like those in breaking routes that are just like you're going to pile up a ton of targets and we did see a lot of that last year with Matt Ryan it's kind of funny because I think the last two years with Michael Pittman we've seen Carson Wentz be able to really get the best out of him from a downfield ball winner contested catch standpoint. But I was looking for when watching that season, it's like, I'm looking for somebody that's more going to exploit him, uh, getting the most out of him on those base NFL in breaking

routes, crossers, digs, slants, uh, stuff like that. And then it was kind of all the way on the other extreme with Matt Ryan last year, where there was none of that downfield jump ball stuff and only like the in breaking short routes especially like almost nothing in the intermediate range so I'm hoping that at some point during Anthony Richardson's career you know if Michael Pittman stays with the Colts and everything you know works out that we can get him to sort of meet Michael Pittman in the middle here but I do think he is really an underrated separator you know you look at his last few years in reception perception excellent scores against man coverage and press coverage and zone coverage as well like

he checks a lot of the boxes i'm looking for for a true number one receiver i just think he is at the top of the list of guys that have just been you know unfortunate with their quarterback pairings of late which might again be the case are you going to be higher on Michael Pittman than consensus? I'm looking right now at fantasy pros, PPR consensus rankings. Actually, this is standard scoring, but in standard school,

I'll just do PPR. Michael Pittman is wide receiver 24, which is interesting because he's 32 in non PPR. Makes sense. I mean, you expect catches from him, but I still think that's kind of high. I'm not sure.

I'd be lower on him than that, personally. Jerry Judy, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett behind him. I mean, the first two for sure I'd have ahead of him. But where are you going to end up on Pittman? And then, Jacob, I'd like your opinion, too. I think I'll probably have him right around that 24 to 30 range. Again, it's just tough because there are so many good receivers. I would definitely take Calvin Ridley over him i'd probably take tyra lockett over him

as well and the funny thing about like always like pitman is a better ppr receiver than standard receiver i could like kind of what i just said i think that you know he almost caught 100 passes last year because he was working with a quarterback that could absolutely not push the ball downfield and he is a really good route runner in those areas. But I also wouldn't be surprised if he's like a 70 catch, high ADOT wide receiver this year because he does have that complete skill set. And I think Anthony Richardson, obviously, we don't know what he's going to look like. So it is really tough, man. But I'll tell you this.

I really find myself intrigued with this Colts offense overall, especially this receiver core, right? Like if Anthony Richardson is good, I think they have an extremely complimentary three receiver set with Alec Pierce, who is a limited player, but I mean, he can run slants posts and goes from that X receiver position and win the ball downfield. And then I think that Michael Pittman's like your perfect number one that you can move around the formation in sort of a Keenan Allen type of way. And I love Josh. I mean, I love Josh Downs as like a slot receiver as well. So it's hard to not get super high on Anthony Richardson just because I'm such a believer in those receivers. But yeah, for Michael Pittman in

fantasy, I could easily see him, you know, a lot of folks in the reception perception discord have pointed this out. Like he might be a guy in dynasty to buy like in the middle of the season when anthony richardson starts slow maybe they're not throwing the ball much and then try to get in on him like in the middle of the year when he's not been as productive i could totally see that happening this year yeah uh jacob you're and you're right i should say i shouldn't say that pitman should definitely be higher in ppr because that that was a last year thing and they're gonna have a much different offense this year. So thanks for pointing that out. Jacob, your thoughts on Pittman,

and then we'll get into some more breakout calls and the coverage data and all that stuff. Jacob, go ahead. Yeah, I think I'll just echo everything Matt said. I love Josh Downs. I love the fit for the receivers there. I think it might be a slow start with Anthony Richardson and those guys we've seen. Rookie quarterbacks have really been detrimental for the fantasy receivers

in their first year. And then also, Russian quarterbacks have kind of sucked the life out of offenses for fantasy typically. And so I'm a little bit, as in this year, I like the call to wait and maybe buy Pittman during the year for Dynasty. But yeah, I've got him at wide receiver 28, I think, where you had him ranked in that 24 range. Adam, where you said his ADP was

is too high. Matt, I want to ask you before we get into the coverage stuff, or maybe we can incorporate the coverage stuff, the schemes and the metrics and what you've seen. Got a couple of wide receiver breakouts you're looking forward to drafting this year?

I always like when I get this question to start with, I think, the most obvious breakout candidate for me that is not going to be like a unique take, but reception perception certainly backs it up. I think that's going to be Drake London this year. I know there are questions with the offense, obviously. I have become one of the, at least in the fantasy industry, one of the foremost Arthur Smith backers. I really love the way the Falcons offense is designed from a past concept standpoint. I think he does a great job of putting guys in position to succeed. I think they also had, and you know, I think you can blame Arthur Smith a little bit for this because they had a history together being Marcus Mariota. I think they had one of the worst starting quarterbacks,

non-Zack Wilson division last year in Marcus Mariota in terms of accurately getting guys to football, being able to make plays on time. But Drake London, when you isolate him in reception perception, this is a guy going back to his collegiate profile. There was a lot of questions about can this guy separate even as a collegiate player in during his time at USC, because he was in a lot of contested situations. But part of what I love doing with reception perception is like, why is he in those contested

situations? Is he not separating or does he have a bad quarterback that again at USC maybe is not getting the ball on time in these routes and throwing him into contested situations. We like to call this the Taylor Heineke factor. Shout out to ODU's finest, but that is certainly his pairing with Terry McLaurin there. When you look at Drake London as a rookie, 72.3% success rate versus man coverage, 81.6% success rate versus zone, 72.5% against press coverage. Like he shows you that ability. He honestly is, it's kind of similar to Michael Pittman where he's a big receiver that can be a ball winner as a true X on the outside,

but he's really good on those in breaking routes over the middle, which is so crucial in this offense. So I think it Desmond Ritter is just functional. Like he's a, he's a functional starting NFL quarterback, you know, maybe like a poor man's Ryan T tannehill type obviously for this offense i think we can get a really big season out of drake london who i think showed last year even when him and kyle pitts were on

the field together like i think the routes that drake london runs and the way he plays it's just a little bit more quarterback friendly than than what you're going to look for as like a vertical uh tight end option with kyle pitts there So I'm really high on Drake Lennon. I think he's an obvious breakout candidate. I do think that like, again, like what is a breakout? I'm super high on John Dotson as a breakout candidate this year. Like if Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett are good, I'm sure we'll talk about Dotson later. Elijah Moore, also another guy that I still have a lot of faith on as a breakout player, if he really wins a two receiver set role there in Cleveland so those are kind of some guys that I think could make a leap in fantasy

this year Drake London being the guy that like I think we hopefully all realize is really good I think if everything comes together situationally there he should be he could easily be a thousand yard receiver this year with no question about it man it's it's everyone. I get it. I mean, I love them. Everybody loves them coming out of college, right? It's the first wide receiver drafted in a very good wide receiver class. It's just we all have the same concerns. It's just are they going to throw the ball enough?

His best production last year came without Kyle Pitts. How good is Desmond Ritter? I actually think Desmond Ritter is a pretty interesting kind of 2QB sleeper. I don't think he'll throw enough to be a 1QB guy, but he can run. I was watching a little bit of his tape yesterday. I don't know. You've watched a lot more than I have. I don't think he's bad

or anything. It's just a matter of volume. He's so interesting. He's going to really frustrate me. I hope he becomes a value at some point. They've got Bijan now. There's not a lot of mouths to feed, but it's just hard for me to get excited about that passing game, I guess. So how do you, and by the way, two questions. How do you balance your excitement about a player and his offensive environment? I guess in this case with Drake

London and what's going to be a run-heavy team with a second-year quarterback with very little NFL experience and a drafted Bijan. And then also those metrics you were throwing out, the success rates against different types of coverage. How do you get those? So, yeah, with the success rates,

I'm literally just going in and charting them as individual players. That's the goal of reception perception. Like Jacob mentioned up at the top, even advanced wide receiver stats, you know, yards per route run, yards per route run, diverse different coverages. In order to get the yards, you're taking in the variable of quarterback, of the offense, everything like that.

So, you know, a guy could be getting open against man coverage, but if he doesn't have a good quarterback to push him the ball, some of those metrics might not look as good. So with reception perception, what I'm doing is literally just going in over an eight game sample and charting everything that's happening you know how often these guys get open against certain coverages because that's i think the one thing a wide receiver can control and and you know by the way it's not there are guys you know certainly that run vertical routes and are not going to get open on some of these clear-out

patterns, but I think that some of that stuff comes out in the wash in the long term. I do think that reception perception is one of the only, if not the only, receiver metric that is going to isolate these guys as much as possible. But like you said, when we're doing fantasy, you need to take in all those other variables. A guy can be really great as a player, but he needs everything else to come together. So for me, it's like, after I chart all this data out, I also like to,

you know, ruin my life a little bit more, uh, and do like full league wide projections, you know? Cause I think that just keeps you honest, you know, but like,

I could think that a guy is a Terry McLaurin is a great example. I think Terry McLaurin is like a top 10 NFL receiver talent, but I'm not going to rank Terry McLaurin as a great example. I think Terry McLaurin is a top 10 NFL receiver talent, but I'm not going to rank Terry McLaurin as a top 10 fantasy receiver because of the offensive environment, the quarterback play that he's with. So you definitely have to take in some context of their situation, of course, when you're doing fantasy. So I might end up being higher on consensus on some of these guys that reception perception likes in fantasy

because I do think talent sometimes dictates volume and situation uh but at the same time you've got to sober yourself a little bit here all right give me one more breakout then we'll take a break and then we'll get into some of the data that jacob wants to dive into yeah definitely like i mentioned elijah moore's a guy i'm really high on but i'll also point out another um third year receiver now in Rashad Bateman. This is a health situation as well. But man, I mean, Bateman is such a good player. Even last year, you saw like, it's not a coincidence that Lamar Jackson's, you know, completely fell off the cliff after Rashad Bateman started getting injured, you know, and he's a guy that didn't

really deal with a ton of health problems in college. He's one of the many, uh, folks that spoke out about, or seemed upset with the, you know, Ravens training staff, right. Then we know they got the F minus or whatever, uh, or the strength and conditioning staff got the F minus and the NFL PA thing. So hopefully he stays healthy this year. Cause I think this guy has all of the talent that you're looking for in terms of being like an outside receiver and adam this is a great example of a of a situation where i think odell becca might have still have something left i really like zay flowers as a prospect obviously i'm still high on bateman gotta sober yourself a little bit right when in the ravens offense even if todd monken takes this thing to another level so i'm interested to see where I actually end up ranking these guys

in terms of fantasy. I haven't done that fully yet or done it in a real committed way yet. So I'm interested to see once I come out with all the reception perception, once I do the projections where I rank these guys. But I'm telling you, if Bateman stays healthy, I think he could easily be the best receiver on this roster. And I do think the Ravens offense is going to evolve to some degree without Greg Roman in the mix uh quick follow-up do you think Bateman will be the best wide receiver or could

be the best wide receiver or the best receiver in general will he outproduce Mark Andrews I think that would be a little bit of a stretch to see him outproduce Mark Andrews but I I think it's a little bit it's a little bit presumptuous for the entire industry to just say they're all fighting for second. I do think that Bateman's talented enough to be the top pass catcher on the team. I also think Zay Flowers is talented enough to be the top pass catcher on the team.

Beckham is such a wild card. The last time we saw him in reception perception in 2021, his data is pretty good. But who knows what he's going to be like now a year and a half later from that and everything, another injury. I think that Mark Andrews is a really good tight end and a very good player, but typically you want to run your offense through wide receivers, not necessarily through tight ends so it wouldn't like i know that people hate when you say this like kind of

analysis like i wouldn't be surprised if one of these guys ends up being better than mark andrews but i'm certainly not going to project it that way do i think it's within the range of outcomes though that's for sure all right quick break here jacob has a lot of metrics he wants to dive into we have a question here from Alyssa about Chris Olave. He's someone I believe we'll be talking about in a little bit. I'm extremely excited about Chris Olave. Jacob, get ready. You're up when we come back.

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What do you want to talk about? Yeah, we'll start with zone coverage, just because zone coverage is the most prevalent coverage type in the NFL. The use of man coverage is on the decline over the past few years. So in 2020, the league average man coverage rate was 31%. Last year, that was 24%. Only six teams had a man coverage rate was 31 percent last year that was 24 percent only six teams had a man coverage rate above 30 percent last year compare that to 17 teams in 2020 so we're really seeing a change um i've heard you talk about on your podcast the use of all this

cover to deep safety stuff um and so we know that zone coverage typically leads to shorter passing and more targets at the running back and tight end position. I just wanted to ask you if there's anything beyond those tendencies that you wanted to expand on the zone and any specific players you wanted to mention in reference to zone coverage. Yeah, I mean, you're right. And reception perception, I should note, I started collecting league-wide data in 2014. And even if you go back in the historical databases, some of the guys that faced the most press and man coverage, usually that was X receivers five, six years ago. The way that the league has gone coverage-wise has totally changed.

Now, you definitely get more man coverage, press coverage, in high leverage situations. Third down, man coverage rates rise. In the red zone, you can see, especially closer to the goal line, you can see man coverage rise. So it is still very important. I actually think it's, quote, more important than zone coverage success rate. However, there are guys that Amon Ross St. Brown is a great example. In his rookie year, he cleared that 80% success rate versus zone coverage metric threshold that I like to see for guys in reception perception. But he was not necessarily the best performer against man and press coverage as a rookie.

Now, he took a leap this past year, and that's borne out in the data as well. However, I was really high on him as a guy that I think is a true target earner because there is still, while you can scheme guys open against zone coverage, uh, you, it is still a skill to be able to know. Um, it is still like a cover, like a skill to be able to know when to sit down, when to stop your routes, like timing routes and zone coverage, especially when you're mixed with a good quarterback there. So I think that when you look at a player like that, who this is another thing, Jacob, that's changed with the rise in there. So I think that when you look at a player like that, who this is another thing, Jacob, that's changed with the rise in zone coverage,

I think you also have seen sort of the rise in these power slot players. For example, St. Brown is a great example. You know, a guy that is almost, I've called him Bud Light Cooper Cup even before he was drafted by the Lions. And it was great to see him drafted by the team, a front office that came from the Rams, the team Bud Light Cooper Cup even before he was drafted by the Lions, and it was great to see him drafted by a front office that came from the Rams, the team that drafted Cooper Cup.

So I think those guys are – it's important for them to be able to beat zone coverage because they're going to face a lot more zone over the middle, stuff like that. And that's another thing too. I don't know how necessarily the – how other services kind of level it off in terms of zone coverage across the entire defense because there are situations where like a number one receiver will get man coverage but then the rest of the the defense is still more in a softer zone uh so it's interesting to see i don't know how other services do that because i'm just charting one player in his one individual matchup but uh yeah i long-winded answer there to say that uh you know these guys that are big slot receivers

it's really important for them uh to be able to be able to beat zone coverage and know when to sit down versus yeah for sure we've got if you're watching on youtube we've got a graphic up here the points suggest that fact big slot receiver debo samuel um and a bunch of running backs and tight ends are the other guys i know the big slot and chris godwin so the chart we've got here is showing the target per route run run uh rate differences when facing zone coverage on the right or man coverage on the left and so like the players who stand out the most is like austin eckler 32 percent target per hour and rate verse zone compared to just 18 percent verse man so it's just something important to know when you're facing these really zone heavy coverage schemes during the season your tight ends your running backs can be targeted at a much higher

rate uh okonkwo from the titans almost double um his target per run rate when facing zone as opposed to man coverage um and it's just it's it's interesting because i think you and i matt would agree that in terms of looking for signals and in terms of looking for something that might be potentially useful in evaluating wide receivers specifically down the line, we kind of lean towards the men and press coverage rates. Right. Like being able to beat those type of coverage is what we care about the most. Yeah, it definitely in terms of signaling like who are good players these eventual breakouts stuff like that but I would also say like again bringing it back to where these guys line up which is it's funny like it it gets more talked about now but I remember doing you know reception perception like a few years ago and I was even not really giving credit to like a great example is a guy like Juju Smith-Schuster who you know when he and antonio brown

were together in that 2018 season there was um some some discourse you know about like is juju taking a leap past antonio brown like see because he's younger and his per route stat rates and stuff like that is per target stat rates is he actually the better receiver on the team even though we all knew ab was really good but it's like these guys might as well be playing different positions was my point back then like what juju was doing as a big power slot receiver and the coverages he was facing is so different than a true you know hall of fame level type of x receiver in antonio brown who's like a pure man press coverage beater but that's not to say necessarily that like juuju is not good or anything like that. It just where these guys line up is where you have to start the question. So for zone coverage, you know, Josh Scott, who's a subscriber to Reception Perception and a data

scientist, he's done some work for us on this. And there's an article on the site. If you go to free content and look at what matters in Reception Perception, the tab there on the site, he wrote a great detailed article about how zone coverage accessory definitely matters more for those slot receivers than it does for outside receivers, whereas man and press coverage is certainly more important. So on a general rule, yeah, I definitely think that man coverage is more important. It's a better signal in terms of like player quality. However, these guys that brown right like as a rookie if he's a really good zone coverage beater not as much of a good man coverage beater i'm not going to dock him for that because of where he winds up in the role that he plays yeah on that note now we we've got a different graph showing um which players

were the most effective in drawing targets versus man coverage as opposed to zone you'll see drake london at the top of that list 37 percent target per route run rate versus man coverage as opposed to zone. You'll see Drake London at the top of that list, 37% target per route run rate versus man coverage last year. That tied Tyree Kill for the highest in the NFL. Just behind him, Jamar Chase. We're going to get into him and T. Higgins for sure here. Hold on, Jacob. We're looking at something right now, if you're listening.

We're talking about players who had the biggest splits, basically, in terms of their ability to draw targets per route run against man. They were very good there, and they had a dip against zone. But these are mostly outside receivers here. Right. So we want to see them get a lot of targets against man, based on what you guys were just saying. So it's Drake London, Jamar Chase, Mike Williams, Christian Watson. These guys had big splits in terms of getting, they got a lot more targets against man covers than they did against zone. Further down on the

list, Ayuk, Sutton, Mike Evans, Alec Pierce, Taequann Thornton. Okay. I just wanted to set it up here and kind of recap. Go ahead,ob thanks adam yeah yeah just uh you'll notice a similarity between these receivers they're typically high a dot guys that are playing mostly in the x or from the perimeter and stretching the field that's their role and so when they face his own heavy schemes i mean look at some of these target per hour rates taekwon thor and alec peers they're they're basically ignored um and i just wanted to point this out um and just help further contextualize the difference between the coverage types and the types of receivers that are benefiting in these. And I think we're good now to just go ahead and transition into some specific.

Well, I actually could make one more point about this. This group of guys is and I think this gets lost during the during the fantasy season when it's like we just talk about outside receiver and slot receiver. This guy, like you mentioned, Jacob. I mean, Drake London, Jamar Chase, Mike Williams, Brandon Ayoub, Cortland Sutton, Mike Evans, Alec Pierce, like Thornton and Watson, Tyquan Thornton and Christian Watson, are really the only two guys on this list

that aren't just like pure X receivers. Now, Jamar Chase is interesting because they have another guy who's like a prototypical X receiver in T. Higgins that they're able to split that up a little bit. But literally almost everybody else on this list is a pure X receiver and T Higgins that they're able to split that up a little bit, but literally almost everybody else on this list is a pure X receiver and not to like dilute the alignment conversation even more, but there's a huge difference between what you're asking of your true X

receiver. You know, a guy that does not move around, like, cause you are tethered on the line of scrimmage. You are not like going to move around pre snap. And then like that, you're going to face a lot more man coverage. You're going to draw a lot more targets against man coverage.

So if you want a guy that's going to be an X receiver, like Brandon Ayuk is a great example. He's the only one in that offense that really isn't moved around pre-snap, is not schemed up touches. He has to be a great man press coverage beater. He is, by the way. And so it's really important to be that guy. But then if you're a flanker receiver and you, that's why it's, again, I think this

is so important when wide charted for reception perception, it's on the site, not just how often are they outside, but how often are they on the line versus on the line? Because if they're an off the line player in like a flanker and two receiver sets or a flanker and 11 personnel, it's okay if they're not as much of a man coverage beater and they're more of a zone coverage beater then so it just it again not to dilute the whole like coverage thing even further but it really matters a lot where these guys line up and i just want to make that point about this list it's the first thing that sticks out to me looking at it is at least uh all but three of these guys and really like i'd say all but two and a half

because chase is just a unique situation these are all like true x receivers that aren't moving around pre-snap do you have any examples of guys who are the clear-cut like flanker and don't have to be as good against man coverage like elijah moore maybe comes to mind um do you have anybody else like that elijah moore comes to mind um you know have anybody else like that? Elijah Moore comes to mind. Robert Woods was a great example back in the day with the Rams. Nobody likes this stuff as much as I do, so that's fair. But like a guy, that Rams three receiver set in 2018, Brandon Cooks, your vertical X, Robert Woods, your flanker,

and Cooper Cupp, your big slot. That's just like so perfectly complimentary it really gets the juices flowing jacoby myers is a guy that's like that too who plays a lot of slot but he's a flanker in two receiver sets which is why his zone coverage success rate is really important and then like okay let me give you an actually exciting name here johan dotson is a great example of a guy who like terry mclaurin's their purex love terry mclaurin um but then joh Dotson's a guy who was kind of profiled as a slot receiver.

He's going to have to play in the slot because of his size, this, that, and the other, but he really mostly played outside last year but was off the ball and mostly a flanker receiver, so his zone coverage success rate is a really important one as well. Yeah, very exciting stuff we saw with dotson um and on that note i want to transition to the man coverage data that we have so we're going to dig into and start with the rookie receiver class because what we saw last year from this rookie class was just insane and so we've got here the graphic we have pulled up for

our youtube watchers is rookie season yard per route run rates versus man coverage leaders um and this is with a minimum of just 50 routes which is very small um but you've got justin jefferson jamar chase up there at the top and then next thing on that list is christian watson um and it's way too small of a sample size i think to be like christian watson's almost as good as jamar chase but it just goes to show like how exciting the potential is for watson, and then we also with his rookie class had, um, top 30 YARPA Reverend rates, first man coverage from Garrett Wilson, Chris Alave, Drake London, and Trelon Burks. Um, those guys were all hired. Those guys were all more efficient, um, first man coverage than Cooper cup Devonta Adams and Terry McLaurin last year.

Um, and we're doing a small sample size when it comes to Burks, when it comes to Watson. So don't, you know, get carried away with this, but,. But Matt, I just wanted to ask you specifically what you thought about the rookie wide receiver class, specifically with Watson and Berks, because I think their data here is probably a little bit misleading because of the small sample size. But what are you seeing from those guys against man coverage? Yeah, man. I mean, this rookie receiver class was really good last year. We've had a lot of really good classes the last few years, like I mentioned with that 25 and under ranking, why it's so hard because 2020 was great. 2021 was great. 2022 was really awesome as well. Especially those three guys at the top. I think Olave, London, and Wilson are so good. I'm so bullish on them.

The other two guys, Watson and Burks, let's start with Christian Watson because I think Watson's a great example of a guy that the Packers used him at both X and flanker last year. He took 37% of his sampled snaps off the line. He was on the line for 63%. So definitely was more of a flanker later on, or more of an X receiver later on in the season as he got his feet wet. But early on in the year, they definitely used him off the line to kind of be more of a coverage-dictating matchup type guy. And he's a really good vertical route runner. If you look at his route success rate on nines, posts, goes,

the corner route, the out route, he's great at that. And those are his most commonly run routes in addition to the flat route, like just route. He's great at that. And those are his most commonly run routes in addition to the flat route, like just being a simple guy that you get off in space. I compared him to Martavis Bryant as a prospect. And I feel really good about that comparison after his rookie year because he's not a complete receiver. You look at his man coverage success rates, 33rd percentile, his zone coverage success rate, 37th percentile. He's got to get better as like a full field route runner to be a true number one receiver. But I think what we see from him as a rookie, you know, kind of similar to like Juju, like he's really high on this list as well.

I definitely don't think Juju is a true number one receiver and he didn't ever develop on the rest of the spectrum in terms of being an outside guy, being a guy who's going to win down the field, almost actually in the inverse way, where Christian Watson is more of a downfield route runner than he is on base NFL routes like slants, digs, curls, stuff like that. But you saw some flashes from Watson. Again, I think the Martavis Bryant comparison I feel really good about because he can stretch the field, but he's really freaky after the catch. And I do think from a ball skills perspective,

like we're not talking about route running here, I think he got better as the year went on in terms of winning and contested situations and stuff like that. So I definitely think he is – like I think there's a tier – if I'm tiering this rookie receiver class from last year, I think there's a tier one of Olave, Wilson, London. Honestly, you could put those guys in any order. I'm not going to

really fight you about it because I love all three of them. And then I think like Jahan Dotson sort of in the next tier down, almost like kind of by himself. And then we get into the Watson, Burks, Pickens zone there next. And for Burks, like you mentioned, he's a really tough evaluation because I don't want to be too hard on him with how things went last year because I can't stress this enough. The role that he played as a rookie was almost completely different, like a totally different position than what he did in college. As a collegiate player, he was almost in this fake gimmicky type of role uh he was in the backfield a ton you know as a as a collegiate player in his reception perception sample he took 80.5 percent of his snaps in the slot or in the backfield and 84 percent of his sampled snaps off the line as a

rookie uh burks was on the line on 75 percent of his snaps, and he was outside on 83.5%. That's a complete flip of what he was doing. So I said coming into the league, he was going to be a developmental X receiver, and the Lions, I mean the Lions, the Titans basically just threw him out there at that position and let him develop on the fly. But he's really only good on two routes at this point,

just crossing routes, dig routes, slant routes, and that's about it. And he's made a lot of plays on those particular crossing routes, like dig routes, slant routes, and that's about it. Like, and he's made a lot of plays on those particular two routes, but we need to see a lot of development from a player like that. If he's going to be able to reach the potential, I think a lot of folks still have for him. All right. That's a trail in Berks. We're talking about, I mean, we got to, first of all, those, those tears that you just gave,

those are not fantasy tears, right? They're just your evaluation. Just as players. Yeah. Jahan Dotson by himself behind London, Olave, Wilson. We got to talk about that, Jacob. That jumped out to me. What'd you think about that, Jacob? That's why I love having Matt on because that is such a contrarian take from people who get so much of their influence through the fantasy landscape, the fantasy scope.

Like I think most people would clearly think of watson as being ahead of dotson um but hayden wings from underdog fantasy just put out his um tears and he also had watson a little bit lower and dotson a bit higher and i think people who are really watching dotson play believe that he's clearly the next best receiver after the top three and that's just like why it's so so fun to get matt's perspective on this because yeah what he what dotson did last year is really, really exciting. And so for dynasty purposes, I think you take note here.

Yeah. Well, this receiver core is good too, man. In Washington, that receiver core is so fun. It's another one, like really gets the juices flowing.

Cause it's a, it's so complimentary. And, you know, I'll say with, with John Dotson, probably the most impressive note from his rookie profile, 78.9% success rate versus press.

That's an 87th percentile all-time reception perception score. He just gets open. And by the way, the most exciting thing about Jahan Dotson is that he's like 5'11", sub 190 pounds. And he's one of the best contested catch receivers in the NFL right now. That was a trump card trait that he had in college. And it was, it translated immediately for his games, recept,

sampled for reception perception. So I can test a target on 22% of his sampled looks and one 81.8% of those targets. I mean, great hands, great timing. He's just a pure technician. And I love those technicians,

man. So like, he's a guy that if if he and if you just look at like a base stat standpoint it's really not that like far off what Jahan Dotson even did from Christian Watson his rookie year and I mean look at the quarterbacks that Jahan Dotson uh played with versus uh you know Aaron Rodgers for Christian Watson I mean he's a he's a good player and I think if they if they ever figured out a quarterback in Washington I think that's going to be a good offense so how about your fantasy they ever figured out a quarterback in Washington, I think that's going to be a good offense.

So how about your fantasy rankings, though? And you know what's funny? I'm looking at my notes on Dotson from 2022 going into the NFL draft, and I wrote, I think he knows how to get open. That was something that kept popping up to me. This guy just watching the games, he's just open. He just looks like a very smart football player. So I'm glad to see that that has translated. And you said he's really great at getting open,

and that is something that Dan Schneier has talked about a lot is a really important skill that people are paying more attention to now, thanks to people like Matt Harmon, by the way. But from a fantasy standpoint, I know how much you love Terry McLaurin. We have obviously so many questions about Sam Howell and if it's even going to be him, by the way, at quarterback. Yeah. So how do you rank?

Who are your top five fantasy sophomore wide receivers? Yeah, I think I'm going to go – God, the top three is tough. I think you have to go Wilson first just because, look, he's going to be paired with Aaron Rodgers. I also think, like, we haven't talked about those guys specifically yet, but Garrett Wilson has some superstar notes in his reception perception profile from his rookie year. I could pull one of them up as I filibuster a little more.

But you're looking at a guy, Garrett Wilson, that truly, again, he does have a superstar ceiling. So does Chris Olave. I think Olave is absolutely up there. But the best indicator from Garrett Wilson's rookie season was his 81.2% success rate versus press coverage. That's a 94th percentile score. Here are the receivers that, as rookies, cleared 80% success rate versus press coverage in reception perception history. Like I said, dating back to 2014. CeeDee Lamb, Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson,

Odell Beckham, and now Garrett Wilson. Only seven dudes, not a bad list. Not a bad list to be on, right? So I think Garrett Wilson right now, he's also really freaky after the catch. Like he is kind of like what the Kadarius Tony bros wish Kadarius Tony was. That's actually what Garrett Wilson is because he's freaky after the catch. Like he is kind of like what the Kadarius Tony bros wish Kadarius Tony was. That's actually what Garrett Wilson is. Cause he's freaky after the catch and he is a really good route runner as well.

So I think you got to have him. Number one, Chris Olave, a 75% success rate versus man. Very important threshold indicator there. He cleared that bar and he also did it not running like any Mickey mouse routes. He was all like running all vertical routes.

So he's number two for me. I like his pairing with Derek Carr. I think Derek Carr showed us last year that he can be, him and Devontae Adams made some music in the intermediate area of the field. That's the best area Chris Olave runs his routes. I think that's a natural pairing there. I think he has a really high ceiling. Then number three is Drake London to me.

Adam, all of your concerns about the offense, I think from a volume standpoint are super valid, but I do think the efficiency of this offense can be really good because they're so talented. They have a good offensive line. I like Arthur Smith as a play caller. So he's number three to me. Um, this is where I think it gets a little murky, but I'm probably going to have, I'm probably gonna have Christian Watson there because I think from a fantasy angle, like the routes that he's best on the, the slant, I mean,

excuse me, the, the post route, the nine route, the corner route, those are all big play routes. And, you know,

by the way, he is exceptional in the open field as well. So, you know, look, we don't know what Jordan love is. You know, I think Jaden reads a really good player that I'm high on,

but that's a young receiver room. And I think Christian Watson is the most dangerous. So give me him at four. And then five, I'm going to put Jahan Dotson over Traylon Burks just because number one, like they might sign Deandre Hopkins. I think they kind of need to sign Deandre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans there. So, um, just give me John Dotson there because I think he, um, he could like the quarterback situation. Certainly Sam Howell's unproven. Jacoby Brissett's a pretty steady player though if he gets the starting job so I feel pretty comfortable having Jahan Dotson

third there I just there's a lot more that I need to see from Burks to kind of pencil or write in pen the breakout there all right let's take a break here we have a little bit more to talk about here with Matt Harmon and Jacob Gibbs this is beyond the box score and we'll be right back okay back for our final

time here our final segment. Happy Friday, guys, by the way. Ready for the weekend? Oh, yeah. Sun's out for Jacob. Oh, yeah. Yes, finally the smoke is clearing here in New York, so looking forward to the great outdoors.

All right, so Jacob, what's next for us here as we transition? Yeah, so I want to bring up Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins and get Matt's perspective on this. I'm a little bit worried about Tee Higgins. And if you have followed our work on FFT for a while, you know that I love Tee Higgins over the past few years. But I think we saw some concerning signs last year. And mostly it was that Jamar seems to truly be ascending into like Justin Jefferson level, just complete stardom, wide receiver one. He was 99th percentile, Jamar seems to truly be ascending into Justin Jefferson level, just complete stardom wide receiver one. He was 99th percentile, Jamar was, in yards per outrun rate versus man coverage in 2021 and sustained that in 2022. But what he really improved on was his ability to draw targets versus man coverage all the way up to 98th percentile in 2022 from 63rd percentile as a rookie and we just saw across the board Jamar was

targeted in all different situations much more often as his average depth of target dropped and they incorporated him into more of a wide receiver one role and I'm worried about what that means for T Higgins we did see a slight dip in Higgins ability to draw targets and his efficiency versus man coverage last year and then just, not even within the scope of man coverage, T. Higgins' target per round rate was way down. He had an identical target per round rate to Mike Evans and to Cortland Sutton. Those are guys that just don't draw targets at a high rate, not guys that were super excited about their fantasy.

And I think T. Higgins is maybe falling into more of this risky wide receiver two type of role. Obviously the offense is so good that he's going to outproduce that most weeks. But yeah, Matt, are you worried at all about T Higgins? Oh, the last thing I wanted to bring up is Jamar was doubled on 19% of his routes, Matt. I think I read on reception perception and only Justin Jefferson was doubled on a higher rate. And it's like, if T Higgins still isn't drawing the targets with Jamar being doubled like that, like, is that something we've got to be concerned about? Yeah, let's first, let me say this about T Higgins as a player. You know, I ranked him seventh on that list.

We mentioned up at the top, the Yahoo article, the guys that are 25 and under, um, love T Higgins as a player, his profile just hit reception, perception.com yesterday. You know, he clears 70 70 success rate versus man and press which is really important as a guy like that is a true like that has that x receiver archetype he's that type of player um so this is no shade to t higgins who also might be the best ball winner in the nfl like i think he's a true legit 1b receiver and a guy that if he was playing for a bunch of other teams he'd be the number one receiver. So he's a really good player. The problem is, Jacob, like you mentioned,

Jamar Chase is just really, really good. Like he's better. He's a top five receiver in the NFL right now. I think this is an absolutely insane reception, perception note for Jamar Chase. And I guarantee I'm going to say this, and like nobody listening or watching is going to geek out as much as I do, but this is really important. Chase has posted an exact 75.3% success rate versus man coverage in his rookie and his sophomore season. He also cleared 80%

success rate for zone and press like that's 75, 80, 80. That's the elite receivers in the NFL. Like if you go and look in the historic RP database, that is all your studs. And he did all this while, despite the fact that the nine route was his most frequently run route in both of his rookie and sophomore season. That is an insane level to get, the insane level to get open while running the most difficult route, the one that has the lowest average success rate is just nuts. And again, he's another guy who is a complete player. He doesn't have any holes in his game. He's great after the catch.

He's a great 50-50 ball receiver. I had a conversation with him a few months ago at the Super Bowl where we talked about how good he is as a route runner technically and how much he is dedicated to that part of the game. He's just a great receiver that is on an insane upward trajectory, the Justin Jefferson trajectory, as you mentioned, Jacob. So that's the real reason to be concerned about Tee Higgins from a fantasy perspective is that as good of a player as he is,

defense is no, Chase is the alpha. The Bengals are starting to treat Chase like he's the clear, clear alpha here. And again, that's no shade to Tee Higgins' skill set, who I made this note in his reception perception profile, like the double coverage metric that you mentioned, Jacob. Yeah, like when they're on the field, Chase is getting those double teams. He's getting the extra defensive attention. However, I included three games for Higgins where Chase wasn't playing,

and at least two of those three defenses, like they doubled Tee Higgins where Chase wasn't playing. And at least two of those three defenses, like they doubled T Higgins at a really high rate. So that's the thing is like teams know that T Higgins could be an alpha, but only when Jamar Chase is like not there. So that I understand the concern there. And but it's really just comes back to just how good of a player Chase is. I'm not even a little bit concerned about T Higgins. I think he's one of the easiest draft picks if you can get him in the third round. Because it's 12-team league. Now, in non-PPR league,

it might go crazy running back heavy. But half or full PPR, I know that you're right about Tee Higgins upside Jacob. I mean, you make a good point. He's never going to be, I don't think he's ever going to be a top five wide receiver as long as Jamar Chase is on the field. That's not in the cards.

But he could easily be top 15. And I think his floor is super high as well. If you look at what he did last year, he was wide receiver 21 per game, but he played three games where he barely played, and he had two catches in those three games. They completely kill his per-game averages for fantasy. But T. Higgins, to me, yeah, his

upside is capped because of Chase, but he is going to be such an easy third-round pick. Once you start to get in the third round, you have to make some really tough choices. I took Brees Hall late in the third round yesterday in a draft. But you might start seeing a guy like Jameer Gibbs creep up in there. You might see a guy like Drake London creep up in there. Tee Higgins, to me, is one of the most certain top 30 picks.

I don't want to necessarily take him in the top 20. But late round two to mid-round three in a 12 league, he's, he's a layup for me, even though I know his upside is capped. I think he has one of the highest floors of it. Like I take him over Devante Smith. I think he has a higher floor than Devante Smith. And it's funny. It's funny. You mentioned that too, because like, there's a ton of dudes in that tier of like drafts. Jalen Waddle has the same problem. Devante Smith, who you mentioned has the same problem demonte smith you mentioned has the same problem yeah the good news for t higgins is that he's tethered to i think the best pure passer of those three uh i mean probably the best quarterback period of those three and

he's such a great he's just a great fit as a ball winner with joe burrow who's like i probably think the best contested catch thrower in the nfl now. So I'm with you, Adam, that like saying concerned about T Higgins. Again, it sounds too harsh. I just think, yeah, the point about the upside is fair. Jacob, I'm sorry. I know you probably there's directions you want to go, but I cannot keep looking at a list that has Mike Williams among the best in this category, right?

And not talk about him. I mean, so we're looking at a list of wide receiver yard per route run leaders versus man coverage, which we've established as an outside receiver. If you're good against man coverage, I mean, that's a really good sign, right? And Mike Williams was second in yards per route run, minimum 100 routes behind Jamar chase ahead of AJ Brown ahead of Justin Jefferson. And you know, he's got, he's kind of, he's banged up right now right now, and they've got Quinton Johnston, and he's so inconsistent. He's one of the most annoying players in fantasy. But, Jacob, your take first on Mike Williams having this terrific matt's perspective on this and see how we graded out in reception perception i haven't seen that on the site quite yet um for last year but yeah i think there's definitely like a lot more upside with mike williams than people realize yeah i definitely agree with that uh yeah his his 2022 samples not

up on the site yet uh historically he's been i think he gets profiled as one of these guys that gets like zero separation. By the way, almost as a disclaimer, almost any time you hear somebody say like, oh, he's only a contested catcher. He's only a jump ball guy. If they're an above average starting NFL receiver, that's just like not true. You know, Mike Evans, great example. Mike Williams, great example. I would say that Williams is in terms of his ability to get open against man coverage. NFL receiver, that's just not true. Mike Evans, great example. Mike Williams, great example. I would say that Williams is, in terms of his ability to get open against man coverage,

he is like an average to slightly above average, like 50th to 60th percentile type range against man press coverage, which is good enough when you're also one of the top three contested catch jump ball receivers in the NFL. These guys who are below average separators against man and press coverage, but only when contested catches, um, I probably bring up cause I bring up this player way too much. Cause I just called the Devante Parker access of wide receivers. Like these guys that never sustained career success.

Like these guys that are, um, these guys that are probably a below average starting NFL X receivers. But yeah, I like Mike Williams. You mentioned Adam, the frustrations of, um, these guys that are probably a below average starting nflx receivers but yeah i like mike williams you mentioned adam the frustrations of um about him in fantasy a lot of that does come down to role too like these x receivers if you are not a superstar level player you know the jamar chase range the um the the mike evans range if you're not that level of player you're going to

be frustratingly inconsistent because those are the most difficult throws and targets. And that's why it's like, there are going to be times when Justin Herbert's take Justin Herbert takes those throws. And then there's going to be times that he doesn't take those throws and he hits Keenan Allen. He hits Austin Eckler. Cause those are just easier layup targets. Uh, but yeah, I think Mike Williams is a very good player. He's going to be one of the really hard. He's gonna be one of the difficult guys to rank in fantasy. Cause I still think Keenan Allen's got it. Um, there's going to be a of the difficult guys to rank in fantasy because I still think Keenan Allen's got it. There's going to be a lot of targets up for grab, but I certainly think that getting out of the Joe Lombardi offense

can be good for almost all of these guys in L.A. Yeah, Kellen Moore just said, Justin Herbert has a cannon, we're going to throw the ball deep. I loved Mike Williams before the Quinton Johnston draft pick, but if Williams can be healthy, maybe Johnston just won't really matter that much as a rookie, which is certainly possible. In the last, let's see, over the last five seasons

among wide receivers with 200 or more targets, Mike Williams is fifth in yards per target behind A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Tyler Lockett, and Mike Evans. He's ahead of Jamar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, and then a guy, Meikle Hardman, joins that list. But yeah, terrific metrics for Mike Williams. It's interesting because I don't really like him that much. I mean, I liked, okay, I didn't like him last year.

He was going in the third round, and I was a little nervous about him. Then I saw his ADP after this year, and was like fifth round, you know, a couple of months ago, ADP so unreliable. It's like, that guy's going to be a great value. Um, but then they drafted, uh, Quinton Johnson in the first round. So I haven't quite landed on where I am with Mike Williams. Anyway, that's my Mike Williams rant. Jacob, what's next? Yeah, I, um, on the T Higgins topic, I wanted to bring up Brandon Ayuk and Devante Smith are two guys that you will see if you're watching on YouTube. Um, also in the top 10 and yards per route run versus man coverage last year, two young ascending receivers. And I wanted to ask you guys for dynasty purposes,

are you taking, or how would you rank Brandon Ayuk, T. Higgins, Devante Smith, and Christian Watson? I think for most, Ayuk is like the clear fourth out of that list. But I know that Adam is very high on Ayuk, and I really am as well. I wouldn't. Okay, wait. All right, give me the list again. Brandon Ayuk, T. Higgins, Devante Smith, and Christian Watson. From Dynasty?

For Dynasty. Yeah, he'd be last. I think I'd clearly have him ahead of Watson, and I think I have him ahead of Higgins as well. I think the upside for him to be a true wide receiver, one in an offense, is higher and closer than it is for Tee Higgins at this point. Feel like he's going to need to get traded for that to happen. That's kind of where I'm at with that.

Ayuk has been a better receiver, I just looked before the show, for the last year and a half than Debo Samuel. Just a more prolific receiver, I should say. I would rank them Devante Smith, T. Higgins, but extremely close. And I would take Higgins over Smith in redraft, but Smith over Higgins in dynasty. Smith, Higgins, Watson, Ayuk. But I could see putting Ayuk ahead of Watson, I guess,

because there's a lot of uncertainty with Watson. How about you, Matt? Yeah, so again, to reference the 25 and under article I did, as pure players, I had the list. Devontae Smith was fourth overall. Ayuk was fifth overall, and Higgins was seventh overall. And Watson was in the honorable mentions group. So as players, I think Watson is a distant fourth.

And I would put him fourth in the Dynasty rankings because of that. So for me, I have it Higgins right now as the top guy. I reserve the right to change my mind. I have Higgins right now as the top guy because he's just in such a good situation. And I think they're going to keep that band together. I think the Bengals are going to move heaven and earth to make sure they have Chase, Burrow, and Higgins all locked up for the long term. I think Devontae Smith is my second ranked guy there because I think he is just a really good player. I think the situation is good. I think he is, again, he's a 1B receiver

just like T. Higgins is to an elite number one receiver in A.J. Brown. You said it, Adam, and I'll say it with a bigger stamp here. Brandon Ayuk is the better receiver than Debo Samuel, and he does it in a more difficult role. Like I mentioned at that list we saw earlier in the show, Ayuk is a pure, true X receiver. He's not getting these gimmicky touches, and there's nothing wrong with being that type of player.

He's getting his yards from running real big boy NFL routes against press man coverage. Last year, Ayuk, 91st percentile success rate versus man, 89th percentile success rate versus press coverage as that 49ers X receiver. It probably does have to come with the trade or like the 49ers completely remake their receiver room like they move on from samuel's contract who admitted that he had a down season last year kyle shanahan talked like he talked with shanahan about that like kittle gets moved on from uh mcafree gets moved on from and like they cement Ayuk as the number one there which is

possible but it feels very similar to like Stefan Diggs in Minnesota where like we all like universally he was accepted as a really good player but he was posting those like success rates that I just mentioned actually even better those success rates I just mentioned uh for Ayuk he was at that Diggs was at that level in Minnesota, and then he just required the trade, required the quarterback to be elevated to an elite level. Like Diggs was performing at an elite level in reception perception in Minnesota, and now he's producing statistically at an elite level because he's just in the right situation.

So I think Ayuk is still third in my dynasty rankings just because I don't want to project that, but I will always hold out hope that he could be like a 14, 1,500-yard receiver in the right situation. He is really, truly that good. Yeah. I'm sorry if I could follow up here. So you're saying Christian Watson right now is by far the last on this list.

Totally get that based on what you watched and how you graded him out. So I would say that Watson came into the NFL as a very raw product and has a lot of room for improvement. So how do you factor that in? And maybe like, how did, how was Brandon Iuke graded out after his rookie season? You know, like, did he get a lot better? Um, how do players get a lot better as you continue to watch them year over year? And could that be something that we see from Christian Watson? So it is definitely possible, for sure. There have been guys that have been that big perimeter receiver that come in raw in the NFL and then they get better.

The best example is Devontae Adams, but that's such an outlier. He had a first percentile success rate versus man coverage as a rookie, and then he's reached the 99th percentile. So he's literally gone from the bottom to the top. That does not happen very often. For the most part, like Eric Eager of Sumer Sports used to be at PFF, actually did a study on reception perception data. How great I can reference somebody else's work on my work, which is great. I'll actually legitimately do love when people do stuff like this. So he put an article out where it found that like RP metrics, especially man coverage, is some of the most stable stuff you can find in terms of NFL stats.

So it is possible definitely that Watson takes a leap. Ayuk, I think, doesn't fit into that category because he came in and had an excellent success rate versus man coverage rookie season, second season, third season. But he was another guy that was regarded as a raw route runner coming into the NFL. So it is definitely possible that Christian Watson takes a leap. And that's part of the reason I do the in-season rookie report for some of these guys

is to track that. But yeah, I think he's a really interesting guy for sure that could take that leap. But right now, I think he is really not close to those other three guys as players we just talked about. Okay. All right, Jacob, I'm sorry to do this to you. I'm giving you the five-minute warning here. So you can guide us for the rest of the way.

I don't think we've talked about press coverage, really. Where do you want to go from here? No worries. Yeah, we'll wrap up quickly. I really wanted to mention CeeDee Lamb. So CeeDee Lamb, year three was a prove-it year for C.D. Lamb, and he really, really proved it. His yard per run rate rose from 59th percentile in year two to 91st percentile in year three when facing man coverage. When facing press coverage, it rose from 30th percentile in year two to 93rd percentile in year three. So definitely go check out C.D. Lamb's profile on receptionperception.com.

Matt wrote about him in more detail. Super, super exciting stuff we saw from him. And I think he was doubled at a really high rate, which is surprising for a slot receiver. And I think with Brandon Cooks there, it's just going to open things up for him even more. Another guy I wanted to bring up was Amonra St. Brown. Amonra St. Brown, as a rookie, dominated zone coverage, as Matt brought up.

And versus man coverage, he was still targeted at a high rate, 83rd percentile target per route run rate. First man coverage as a rookie. In year two, that rose all the way to 98th percentile. And his yard per route run rate efficiency versus man coverage rose from 54th percentile to 90th percentile as well. And so Amonra, he's somebody I have a tough time clicking his name over Garrett Wilson or for dynasty over guys like Jalen Waddle, Drake London, Chris Alap, Devante Smith, these guys that we get so excited for. It feels like the top range of these guys outcomes is much higher than Amonra St. Brown, but I'm not so sure that's even valid anymore.

Amonra is winning all over the field. Um, it's not just a slot. So only Tyree Kill and AJ Brown averaged more yards per route run on routes coming outside of the slot than Amon Ross St. Brown did in 2022, even on the perimeter, even versus man coverage. He's just dominating everywhere. So I just wanted to bring him up quickly as well. And then Matt, I'm very, very excited to end on this note

because it's just so obscure and so perfect to just highlight the work that you and I do uh Pukanukua if you're unfamiliar with Pukanukua Pukanukua is a fifth round pick for the Los Angeles Rams he had the highest career target and yard per route run rate of any receiver coming into this draft including JSN um and that's not something you're going to notice at first because he really couldn't put together a full season he played in run heavy offenses so that he to me is he perfectly epitomizes why per route data is so important um and i just wanted to bring up this uh quote that i just saw on twitter from cooper cup on nakua or no this is mcveigh on nakua he's a guy that

we're expecting to come in expecting him to be able to contribute and compete. Every spot is going to be earned on this team, but I really like what he's done. And I think it's a credit to everybody around him and his conscientiousness. Cup has talked about how he's NFL ready as well. And then Matt, you really liked what you saw from him. Again, albeit in a small sample size, you really liked what you saw from him in reception perception, right? Yeah, small sample size so i do an article uh each of the last two years on like i call it the rookie roundup for the prospects where i was not because nfl film easy you can get that you know through game pass a lot with the college film it's harder and like you have to have all 22 to be able to chart these routes right that's just that's the way it goes so i only got three games in for for a guy like

puka and these other players that are in the uh mini samples rookie roundup it's not a full rp sample but um i did really he was probably my favorite guy in in that group right uh i i like him a ton 74.2 success rate versus man 73.2 uh 73.3 success rate versus press also pretty good against zone coverage very good on like slants, flats, curls. I think he could be... Obviously, he's not going to be a slot receiver because Cooper Cup is their slot receiver, but I think he could be a flanker type for them.

Probably not going to be an X receiver, but that's the open spot of the offense because I think Van Jefferson is actually a pretty good player. I think Van Jefferson has shown an ability to be a vertical X in that offense. They need a flanker at this point in 11 personnel sets. And I think Puka could be a really interesting guy. He's another one that had like a ton of rush attempts to like,

they really almost use him in like a gadgety way. And he's got great contact balance in the open field. So he's an interesting guy to highlight here. I really like him and I'm not kind of not surprised that they've, you know, hyped him up a little bit. I think this is a really good landing spot for him. As far as the Monroe St. Brown goes, I think what, what, why you have trouble clicking his name over Garrett Wilson. I brought this up, uh, on our bus proof episode. I don't know, last week or the week before. Among 80 plus wide receivers, something like 80 to 85 wide receivers

with 50 or more targets, Amonra St. Brown was 73rd in explosive catch rate last year. He was a little better as a rookie. He was 57th out of 91 wide receivers with 50 or more targets in 2021, sorry. And that's, I think, a catch of 16 or 17 or more yards. So the rate at which he's

doing that, I don't know that he's not capable of it, but the way they use him, it's like Keenan Allen minus two or three yards of ADOT. He's just so short area, not really doing much after the catch, not making big plays. So maybe he can turn into a different wide receiver, but he is going to rely heavily on targets and he's not going to make a ton of plays. He also caught – he had three catches that were down at the one-yard line. So maybe it was two catches and a carry, but at least two to three plays where he was down at the one-yard line, so that touchdown number could have been higher.

But Garrett Wilson is a more exciting player for sure from a fantasy perspective. He's not as safe. In non-and-half PPR, I'm going Wilson. In full PPR, I'm pretty close to going Garrett Wilson. But I see the dilemma there, Jacob, because St. Brown is, you know, to me, he's like Keenan Allen, who never

really, rarely deserved to be picked in the top, like, 20. He was more like a 24-25, 2-3 turn kind of guy. But you're not going to get St. Brown there. That's it, Jacob. This was the cookies and cream episode. This was terrific, man.

It delivered. We were super excited, and man, it was delicious. I was wondering, Matt, like you said, Brandon Ayuk was running big boy routes. If you met Deebo Samuel, would you ever tell him that he wasn't running big boy routes? I said that Brandon Ayuk was running big boy routes. If you met Debo Samuel, would you ever tell him that he wasn't running big boy routes? I said that Brandon Ayuk is running big boy routes. I didn't say Debo Samuel wasn't running big boy routes.

That's what I inferred. I thought that's where you're going, but I don't want to put words in your mouth here. Dude, thanks so much for sharing all this wisdom. Tell us how we can follow all of your awesome advice. Yeah, I appreciate you guys having me on for sure. It was awesome. We hit on a ton of players. It was great stuff. I hope

everybody enjoyed listening and watching. You can follow me at MattHarmon underscore BYB on Twitter. ReceptionPerception.com is the place to find all the stuff that we were throwing around here. And of course, you can follow all my stuff on Yahoo as well. The Yahoo Fantasy Football Forecast all the stuff that we were throwing around here. And of course you can follow all my stuff on Yahoo as well. The Yahoo fantasy football forecast is the podcast that I host five times a week during the season.

And we're still keeping on going two times a week during the off season. So check it out there. All right, Jacob, have a great weekend, Matt. Same to you. Thank you all for watching and listening.

If you're watching live right now on YouTube, please hit the like button and I'll see you in 45 minutes with my bold predictions. I got two wide receiver bold predictions. I'll tell you guys real quick. Jerry Judy, top five. Marquise Brown, top, whoa. I think I said top 10 for Marquise Brown. But those are a couple of my bold predictions I'll be talking about shortly.

And a running back is going to finish top five as well. Have a good one, everybody. Talk to you soon.