Fantasy Football Today - WR Reflections and DFS Picks for Conference Championships (01/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: January 21, 2021

Today we’re discussing one of the deepest positions in Fantasy Football: wide receiver. We start with news and notes (04:21) with a Patrick Mahomes update, A.J. Brown is superhuman and Michael Thoma...s will undergo surgery … Wide receiver reflections (15:41) with draft strategy talk, 2020 flukes including Corey Davis, and 2021 breakout candidates (33:12) … Matchup previews (37:40) including a chalk play and sleeper pick for each game. 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @CTowersCBS, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Subscribe to 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:16 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. We're going to find out who's going to the Super Bowl. Both of the playoff games are this weekend. There's DFS talk to talk about, and we're going to look back at the wide receiver position in 2020.
Starting point is 00:01:35 Guys who were flukes, guys who will break out in 2021, who absolutely sucked in 2020. We will get to it all, and we're going to help you look good with Express because this episode of Fantasy Football Today is brought to you by Express. Express is all new and all about you with a fresh assortment of casual, versatile, and super comfortable styles. Find out more about Express and their exclusive offer later in the show. I'm Dave Richard. I'm joined by Jamie Eisenberg.
Starting point is 00:02:02 And let's just jump right into the topic. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Are you okay? You don't want to jump. Are you okay? Yeah, I'm okay by Jamie Eisenberg. And let's just jump right into the topic. Are you okay? Yeah, I'm okay. Why? Do I look like I'm in a hostage prison again? No, but Phillip Rivers retired. Are you okay? Yeah. I'm okay. We'll talk
Starting point is 00:02:20 about that. That's not the biggest quarterback thing to talk about, but I... Of course it is. Okay, fine. He retired. Yeah. talk about that that's not the biggest quarterback thing to talk about but i of course it is okay fine he retired yeah yeah yeah so uh long time listeners of the podcast know that i have had a crush on philip rivers literally since he came into the nfl like he was the first guy that i ever scouted for like an actual didn't actual scouting report on and it blew me away um in his bowl game i think it was against kansas and i've just been a huge fan of his ever since and he's you know been the iron man of the nfl since he's been in the nfl and now he's gone and now i can't take him with my last pick in some of my personal leagues or you know just be overall happy about him when he has a good game or you
Starting point is 00:03:03 know love his stupid trash talk on the field, all this stuff. I am a huge Phillip rivers fan. And now that he's gone, I'm going to keep playing fantasy football and keep watching fantasy football and do all those things, but it's going to be a little different without Phillip rivers in there. So thanks for bringing that up,
Starting point is 00:03:19 Jamie. That was special. Yeah. I'm excited to see what the Colts are going to do. I mean, they have so many, what do you think they're going to do? What do you think? Don't tell me what you think they are going to do. I mean, they have so many, what do you think they're going to do? What do you think?
Starting point is 00:03:26 Don't tell me what you think they're going to do. Tell me what you would do. Oh, I go get Carson once, you know, I think they have a win now defense, you know, from what they were putting together.
Starting point is 00:03:34 They have a win now offensive line. They have a win now run game, the passing game. These work. I mean, you know, you have a quarterback hole. That's the biggest issue.
Starting point is 00:03:41 And you have a number one wide receiver hole of T. Y. Hilton leaves. But even if he stays, I still think they need an upgrade at that spot. So their passing game is what's missing. And you need a passing game in the NFL. So we saw the Jacoby Brissett experiment.
Starting point is 00:03:52 That wasn't great for them. I don't think that was an experiment they wanted to do. Yeah, maybe it's better second time around, but I think we know the answer to that. So if you can't get Wentz or Stafford, I doubt they're getting Deshaun Watson because of the division rivalry. No chance. Matt Ryan,
Starting point is 00:04:07 the guys that are going to be the veterans that are potentially available, Sam Darnold, Jimmy Garoppolo, those type of guys, then you got to hit the reset button. That's, I think, going to set back their franchise because their franchise, like I said, I think is ready to compete now with the right quarterback in place. I would love to see Wentz there.
Starting point is 00:04:24 I would love to see Stafford there. I read a story on The Athletic about the background, what went into drafting Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. And Chris Ballard was there in Kansas City as part of that staff when they decided years before Patrick Mahomes was coming out that they wanted Patrick Mahomes. And they knew that they had to trade up in a major way in the draft to get him. I wonder if there's a quarterback that Chris Ballard will see in this class that he'll say, I got to get him, and the Colts will move up from the bottom half of round one to the top half to try and get that quarterback if they can't get their hands on Wentz or Stafford. They were aggressive in the draft last year to get Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:05:01 Do you know who they made the trade with to get Mahomes? Buffalo. No, no. Yeah, Kansas they made the trade with to get my homes a buffalo no no yeah can't kansas made the trade with buffalo yep and look how that worked out that worked out pretty well for uh for them for sure for both pretty sure it worked out yeah for both of them they got your davis white the two picks they got were your davis white and traymon emmons yeah those guys are good those are their best defensive players at this point okay speaking of my homes he he's rocking and rolling last week. Everybody saw him, and then he gets kind of headlocked into the ground and out for the fourth quarter of the game.
Starting point is 00:05:34 Kansas City hangs on to win. He practiced on Wednesday. It was limited. He's still in the concussion protocol. Now, they said he did everything. He's fine. I think he's going to be good to go. I don't think there's really any question.
Starting point is 00:05:45 How effective do you think there is anyway? I have no doubt, no concern about Patrick. No tentativeness at all. Maybe he's going to be afraid a little jittery in the pocket. Oh, what if someone tries to like suplex him or you know, I mean, I think during the game during the game is something different, but you
Starting point is 00:06:01 know, going to the game, no hesitation. Okay. I think he'll be fine too. I'm not sure he's going to be like 350 yards and four touchdowns good this bill's secondary is playing well we'll talk about that a little bit later on another news point i want to talk about the lions they got dan campbell as their head coach i don't know where dan campbell ranked on everybody's list of head coaching candidates when the head coaching list came out, especially when, you know, guys like Eric P enemy were toward the top of the list. What do you, what do you make of this? Dan Campbell being the new head coach of the Detroit
Starting point is 00:06:34 lions. Cause I'm, I'm kind of scratching my head over it. So he's now number one in terms of coaches. I'd be afraid to fight. Right. Uh, so he ranks at the top of that list. Uh, if, if you could, uh, imagine Pete Prisco and I, we sit there and watch games on Sunday. He always say, would you want to fight that guy? And would you want to fight that coach after a game? And the answer is usually no to all of them.
Starting point is 00:06:55 But the top of the list that we had, if I remember correctly, Mike Vrabel and Brian Flores were two of the guys at the top of guys. You don't fight. He's not number one. He's now number one. Campbell's now number one. What do I think this means for the Lions? You know, we got to see who they hire as office coordinator when it comes to fantasy.
Starting point is 00:07:14 We got to see if they keep Matthew Stafford, they keep Kenny Galladay. There's a lot of, same like the Colts. There's a lot of question marks to this team. You know, I mean, Campbell was, he did a nice job when he took over as interim head coach for the dolphins. You know, he's got that he's got, he knows how to motivate players. That was certainly a big theme coming out of those dolphins teams. But, you know, in terms of being a head coach, yeah, I was a little surprised that he got a job over Eric B enemy. You know, they got a job where Leslie Frazier, you know, some of the guys that were out there that you're still hearing
Starting point is 00:07:44 Brian Dable, for example, you know, some of those guys that were out there that you're still hearing, Brian Dable, for example, some of those guys that you thought were good. Yeah, he really should have been considered more. In terms of what Campbell's going to bring to the Lions, we'll see when he hires his offense coordinator and what they do with their personnel. He's a former tight end, so I wonder if that'll be a good thing for TJ Hawkinson, that he'll get a little extra attention from the head coach. And the head coach, he looks at the NFL game from that perspective maybe that'll help and he spent a ton of time with Sean Payton now obviously he just came from the Saints where he was an assistant
Starting point is 00:08:14 head coach there but he played for Sean Payton when Sean Payton was the play caller in Dallas he was with Sean Payton in New York so I wonder if there's going to be that type of influence too and maybe that makes me a little more excited about him being the Lions head coach is that he can potentially get creative. I don't think he can be what Sean Payton was, but I think that maybe that'll be a sign of like what direction they go. And maybe it'll be a West coast-ish type of offense. And if it leads on the tight end, then maybe it's going to be good for Hawk.
Starting point is 00:08:42 So we'll see, by the way, who's the head coach that you would want to fight? Oh, Vic Fangio came to mind, was the one. Really? I think Vic could be a tough fight. I was thinking Pete Carroll. None of them are easy. Right.
Starting point is 00:08:56 I think when we figured it out, we looked at age. That's why I would say Carroll. That's why I would say Pete Carroll is because of his age. Yeah. Pete Carroll is because of his age. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Pete Carroll was on the list.
Starting point is 00:09:09 Vic Fangio was on the list. Bruce Arians on the list. You know, we started with the old guys in terms of like who you'd want to fight for, but they'd all would kick my butt. I mean, there's not, there's not, there's not a one that I would say I have a shot to beat that guy up. No way. Robert Sala might be number one too. That's going to be close.
Starting point is 00:09:24 He would be up there. That's true. That's true. He wasn't the head coach at the time we did this. And I should have put him in the conversation with Dan. He's got to be tough. Brian. Brian Flores is probably the one that, you know, I mean, you see him. He wants to fight players when they get into this couple. He runs out on the field. Vrabel, you know, we start with the former players. Obviously, that's the first place you go. And and then, you know, you go. And then you factor in size. You factor in just the scrappiness.
Starting point is 00:09:49 I wish we would have written it down because it was more like we're doing it off the top of our head. Yeah. And now I'm starting to think of other coaches like Matt Nagy. I think it came up when Joe Judge got in a fight with Mark Colombo. The report that he he he yeah colombo and well that tells me i don't want to fight joe judge well exactly because mark colombo is not a small he's a giant he's a giant human right so i think uh i think you know
Starting point is 00:10:16 some of the ones that we said that you you you want to fight like zach taylor came to mind um he does he does yeah, he's not very imposing. Again, kick my ass, but that doesn't say very much. Who are some of the others we came up with that you'd want to fight? Oh, Belichick.
Starting point is 00:10:34 But again, you know, he would outsmart you. He would just outsmart you. True. It's true. Yeah, this is more to be honest. It's more Pete fighting these guys than me fighting. Where's Brad Childress
Starting point is 00:10:43 when you need him? All right. Some more news and notes. Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, Sammy Watkins, they were limited in practice. Are we expecting them at this point, Jamie? Who knows? I mean, you know, two guys that have missed the entire postseason so far. For Edwards-Hilaire, he's been out since week 15 when he suffered the ankle hip injury. At this point, if, in fact, you do get Edward Solaire out there for any DFS scenarios, I would go the other way.
Starting point is 00:11:10 Especially since he's still priced ahead of Darrell Williams on both sides. Yeah, kind of crazy. Stephon Diggs, oblique. He was limited. Gabriel Davis with an ankle didn't practice on Wednesday, but no Cole Beasley on the injury report. That might be a good sign for him going into this conference championship showdown. For the Bucs, no Antonio Brown at practice. Knee injury. We'll see what he does the rest of the week. Better news for Mike Evans,
Starting point is 00:11:32 Chris Godwin, Rojo. They were all limited on Wednesday. Alan Lazar, Jamal Williams, AJ Dillon. They were limited. Let's talk about a guy that's not playing in the playoffs. Michael Thomas is likely topped for surgery to repair both the torn deltoid and other injured ligaments in his high ankle. And so that got me to thinking. He had a high ankle sprain. McCaffrey had a high ankle sprain. We've seen other players get the high ankle sprain, and they don't always come back from it very cleanly in the same season. I'm thinking that this is like an injury that when, when you have a player starting next year,
Starting point is 00:12:07 that gets a high ankle sprain, you just had for the hills, you trade them, you get whatever you can. You say, forget it. He's not going to be the guy that I thought it would be when I took him. And you just take your losses and you get whatever you can and trade for
Starting point is 00:12:17 him. Jamie, I guess the, the opposite of that would be McCaffrey suffered as second injury to his shoulder. And so how he not suffered the shoulder injury, you saw what he was in the Kansas city game. So that was a separate issue. Saquon rushed back too soon, but he won a lot of people fantasy championships if he stuck with him
Starting point is 00:12:35 and were able to make the playoffs because his final three games of the fantasy season were amazing two years ago. So, you know, I mean, you just have to understand that this is probably a three to six week injury. And again, Michael Thomas, they, they purposely kept him out at the end of the season. He wanted to play. They, they did it on, on their own due diligence, knowing that they were going to make a playoff run, which obviously they did. And so they wanted him fresh for the playoffs. So it's a case by case situation. It's not a bad idea to try and trade those guys, but you're putting, you're trading them at depressed value, which is never a good way to trade. And so, you know, somebody is, you know, depending at what point in the season, these guys get hurt, you know, for these two guys in particular, it was week three for McCaffrey or week
Starting point is 00:13:15 two for McCaffrey week one for Michael Thomas. Um, you know, if you, if you get to week four, week five, week six of this injury, and they're still not back, you know, then maybe you try to trade them, but I think it's all case by case. I wouldn't necessarily put it as a high ankle sprain. They're done. Got it. But speaking of the high ankle sprain, Zach Moss apparently has it. He's having a surgery called a tight rope surgery. We're not going to see him play in any games anytime soon. The tight rope surgery, it's the same thing Tua had at Alabama, not the big injury, but before he had that big injury at Alabama, he had this tightrope surgery to repair a high ankle sprain.
Starting point is 00:13:48 He came back pretty soon from that. Two more points. A.J. Brown underwent minor surgery on both knees. He said, quote, They told me I was done for the year after week two. And just to refresh your memory, he didn't play weeks two or three. Then he had 20 PPR points or more in four of his next five games and nine of his next 13.
Starting point is 00:14:06 He didn't play week four, too, right? I think they were on bye in week four. Oh, you're right. And they came back, I think. Yeah, that was the schedule snafu with the Steelers. If he just put up these numbers on two bad knees, what's he going to do on two good knees? Well, he saw it as a rookie.
Starting point is 00:14:23 Yeah, he could be amazing. I look forward to drafting him in 2021 and someone that i'm not going to be looking forward to drafting in 2021 is jerick mckinnon he was on an instagram live video with debo samuel and he was asked are you going to stay with the 49ers and he's going to be a free agent and he said bleep no he's done with the 49ers i just thought that that was uh kind of amusing that he would say that on a, on a live stream with Debo, who will definitely be with the 49ers. Good negotiating.
Starting point is 00:14:50 Tell, tell, you know, one of the, the, the 30 teams that have a chance to sign you 31 teams have a chance to sign you. Goodbye.
Starting point is 00:14:57 I'm not so sure that he's going to have a, have a chance to sign anywhere. 29 years old has a ton of injuries, tired legs toward the end of the year. You think he'll go somewhere? Yeah, he'd play a special team. He's a capable third or fourth running back for a team. Do you think he'll have any interviews or anything with one of these teams
Starting point is 00:15:16 where he's going to have to dress nice and look good and feel good when he's talking with a general manager or head coach? I would hope so, but with today's society, being on Zoom would probably be as casual as he wants. But if he wanted to dress up and he wanted to look sharp and he wanted to wear clothes that really gave off the image that he's not done and he's ready to keep playing football, would you suggest that Jarek McKinnon go to Express or express.com and buy a
Starting point is 00:15:46 whole wardrobe of clothes so that he can send that message to other teams? Yeah. I mean, I did that. I'm excited for, uh, you did to NFL teams to take all, well, not for it. Well, yes, for, I guess for NFL teams, because I'm going to take all of my express clothes plus the clothes that I'm, uh, planning to purchase soon, uh, on express.com for the Super Bowl, for Super Bowl 55, going to Tampa. We have a lot of shows planned, so I'm excited to display my Express wardrobe
Starting point is 00:16:12 just because I think, you know, you start off 2021 right with a fresh look and that's with Express. Feeling confident in my clothes matters. Looking sharp on the podcast and CBS Sports HQ matters. It boosts my confidence and gets me all ready to provide fancy advice all day long. Crustle wrinkle resistant fabric is easy to take care of, which eliminates the chips of the dry cleaner. Start the new year right with an all new look with Express. Shop Express in stores and online express.com now. That's express.com. Go there now.
Starting point is 00:16:40 Look fresh. Look right. Look ready to go. Absolutely, Jamie. Thank you for that. All right. Before we talk about the playoff games that are coming, let's take a look back at wide receivers in 2020. The ones that we thought were kind of fluky, the ones who had poor performances,
Starting point is 00:16:54 the ones who we think might be done, the ones that could bounce back who, who knows what else we'll talk about here, but let's just start with the flukes. Jamie, a wide receiver that had a flukish 2020. I'm going to go with Corey Davis. You know, I think he was very good for fantasy. He was great for the Titans, really for the first time in his career. You know, we know that they went into the season planning to move on from him. We'll see how they feel coming out of the season, if he's going to get an opportunity to stay there.
Starting point is 00:17:20 But I just don't know if he's going to be a consistent producer year over year. And as we saw, there were some highs at the end of the season, had a couple of big games. There were obviously some lows during that stretch as well. And, you know, remember we go back to the beginning of the season, he had that stretch of basically it was 11 or more, or it was right around just 11 PPR points. You know, he was just hitting that number on a consistent basis was, was, was nice. But I don't know if I want to target somebody who's just going to hit 11 PPR points, you know, and, and again, we've seen the body of work. We've seen what he was. There's a,
Starting point is 00:17:56 there's a change coming for the Titans with an offense coordinator replacement with Arthur Smith now gone. So if he stays in Tennessee, I think he's got a chance to still be a number three fantasy receiver, but a guy that I'd settle for as opposed to target. If he goes somewhere else, we'll see what that means for him, but he's not somebody I'm excited about for next year. No, neither am I. I like him as like a floor play wide receiver three, because that's really what he was for most of 2020, 10 to 14 games with at least 10 PPR points. And he faded a little bit toward the end
Starting point is 00:18:25 of the year. I don't think he's ever going to be that type of dominant number one receiver. We'll see what happens, but I think he's going to be one of those guys that like you said, number three receiver at best and someone that you can use not necessarily sparingly. Maybe he's your primary third receiver and three receiver leagues, but you should be open to the idea of benching him for wideouts with more upside. My fluke is Robbie Anderson, who had a great season, first year in Carolina, eight games with 15-plus PPR points in 2020, 12 with 10 or more PPR points.
Starting point is 00:18:57 So kind of like Corey Davis, he had a lot of games. The majority of his games were with 10-plus PPR points. He was safe. But the two years prior, and maybe you just chalk this up to being with the Jets and the whole Adam Gay stuff. Maybe that's what you do. He had eight total games with 15 PPR in the two years prior to getting to Carolina. And so I don't know if last year was a byproduct of, oh, Robbie Anderson's really good. And it doesn't really matter that he was playing with an okay quarterback.
Starting point is 00:19:22 He just had that opportunity. Or did he just have a fluk quarterback. He just had that opportunity. Or did he just have a flukish year where he had this big opportunity for one year, one time. And then after that, he's going to be a dud. So I'm not reaching for Robbie Anderson. I might take him ahead of Corey Davis. It really depends on where Corey Davis goes. But I view him the exact same way as a number three receiver who I'm okay starting at the beginning of the year. But I'm looking to replace at some point during the season.
Starting point is 00:19:46 Do you feel me on that one, Jamie? Not at all. I like Robbie Anderson situation a lot. I don't think last year was a fluke. I do think leaving the jets was huge. I do think getting stability with a better play caller was huge. I do think that the fact that Curtis Samuel is an unrestricted free agent, if he leaves, it opens up more targets.
Starting point is 00:20:01 That's obviously something that we have to see, but I think he's, you know, proven that when he's gotten good quarterback play, and it doesn't have to be great, but just good, which is what he got last year, that he's been able to put up good numbers. I think leaving Adam Gates was huge for him. I think leaving that disaster of a situation in the Jets was huge for him. So I don't think last year was a fluke by any stretch.
Starting point is 00:20:20 I think last year is certainly replicable based on what this offense is going to look like going into 2021. So I like him leaps and bounds over Corey Davis, and I think he's got a chance to still be a borderline starter and mostly. Did I read right that Adam Gase is a candidate to be an offensive coordinator at Bama? Did we talk about this? I think we did.
Starting point is 00:20:37 Yes, so is Bill O'Brien. So Nick Saban is going to put those guys through his car wash and see what happens there. But there's a track record for both those guys with Saban. I think Gase was an assistant for him at one point in one of their – Might have been. Okay, we talked about before. I'm not going to do it again.
Starting point is 00:20:52 Yeah, so we'll see. Hopefully Gase doesn't ruin the kids coming out of Alabama. Bounce back candidates in 2021, Jamie. Is there a receiver that you're already looking at that you're going to say, forget about what you saw in 2020, 2021 is the real deal? Yeah, I mean, you've heard me say this a lot since the Jaguars locked up the opportunity to get the first pick in the NFL draft and get Trevor Lawrence and DJ Chark. You know, he was somebody that I thought was going to be a top 20 fantasy receiver in 2020. I thought going into his third
Starting point is 00:21:19 year after what he showed you as a sophomore, that it was going to be a huge season for him and injuries played a part, obviously poor quarterback play played a part, whether you are a Gardner Minshew guy or not. Those two guys weren't on the same page. Chark complained about Minshew. The Jaguars obviously weren't happy with Minshew. And then the guys who backed up Gardner Minshew were a disaster as well. Mike Lennon shouldn't be a quarterback in the NFL at this point. Jake Luton didn't prove himself to do anything.
Starting point is 00:21:41 So the quarterback upgrade is the biggest thing. We'll see if they add another receiver and who that person may be to either put Chark into a number two role or give another player an opportunity to take some targets away. But I think DJ Chark, again, will be somebody that has top 20 potential. I won't rank him that high, but he'll be in my top 30 for sure. And somebody that I will target, like I said, when we were reviewing the mock draft, somewhere in the round five to seven range, but I will be aggressive with DJ Chark next year seven games with 15 ppr points in 2019 so i bought into dj chart too i thought he'd be outstanding in 2020 he only had three such games last year and the quarterback issues were a problem i took a very quick look at trevor
Starting point is 00:22:22 lawrence's top targets at clemson and his number one guy was actually his slot guy, Amari Rogers, 77 catches, 1,020 yards, seven touchdowns. But he had another receiver that he threw to a lot. Cornell Powell, who wore number 17, who was six feet tall and over 200 pounds and seemed like a downfield threat. He's more like Chark than Rogers was. 53 catches, 882 yards, and seven touchdowns. Those were his two big weapons there.
Starting point is 00:22:47 I'd like to think that DJ Chark absolutely has a chance to rebound. And I think Jerry Judy has a chance to rebound. And I can't use stats to back it up. I can't look at what he did in 2020 and say, well, he's got this going for him and that going for him. He was second in the NFL in drops. Dante Johnson, shout out. You were first.
Starting point is 00:23:06 I was frustrated with how he played. I know that he didn't have a lot of big games, and we saw all these other rookie receivers do well. I'm real curious what the Broncos end up doing at quarterback. If they keep Drew Locke, then maybe I won't be quite as excited about Jerry Judy. And I know that Corlin Sutton's coming back, and I've taken Sutton in some of our mocks already.
Starting point is 00:23:24 But I think the talent is still there. It's going to get closer to the surface. His last game was good. I'm hoping that Jerry Judy rebounds. And right now, I'm kind of going back and forth in my mind on where's that range where I'm not reaching too hard on Judy. Because I think someone in every draft will have that mindset of, Judy can't possibly be this bad in 2021. And they're going to go and look for Jerry Judy in the draft.
Starting point is 00:23:51 And so I'm kind of curious where he went in our drafts and, and, and where he will continue to go. And I feel like he's worth the risk in round six. And I actually, I didn't look to see where he went in our drafts. Maybe, you know, Jamie, if you've got that, I think I took him look to see where he went in our drafts maybe you know Jamie uh if you've got that I think I took him to one I'll tell you in a second yeah but I I think that round six is the time to take him and just comparing him to Robbie Anderson and Corey Davis I think there's no question I'm going to take Jerry Judy ahead of Corey Davis but I think it's it's how you feel about Robbie Anderson if you really think that Robbie is going to keep putting up nice, solid floor numbers, like we talked about, 12 games of 10 plus PPR points with some smash games mixed in,
Starting point is 00:24:31 then you'll take Robbie Anderson ahead of Jerry Judy. But if you think that, I think the upside play is definitely Judy because he's got a chance. We don't know if Corlin Sutton is going to be 100% back from ACL. I think Judy does have a chance to outperform somebody like Robbie Anderson. And that's why I think I would end up taking Judy over Robbie Anderson and then settle for Robbie Anderson. If I don't get my hands on Judy,
Starting point is 00:24:51 if someone else who's really excited about Judy gets him in the draft. Yeah. The upside play is obviously Jerry Judy. Judy went in round seven in our PPR draft. All right. Robbie Anderson. Yeah. So I took Judy in round seven, Robbie Anderson around eight. Okay. And Judy went in round seven and a half PPR draft. Robbie Anderson. Yeah, so I took Judy in round seven,
Starting point is 00:25:05 Robbie Anderson in round eight. Okay, and Judy went in round seven and a half PPR too. Third and fourth receivers. Yeah, I mean, the upside play is obviously Jerry Judy. I think there's a lot to like about what he can become.
Starting point is 00:25:17 Cortland Sutton's recovery is going to be a big part of that. But, you know, Judy is a guy that runs great routes. Like you said, he's a guy that has a hard time catching the ball. Like you said, you know know they were trying to get him going toward the end of the season I do think Drew Locke is back as their quarterback I do think that a year in the
Starting point is 00:25:32 system a full off season will help him he has arguably and it's not at the top because it's not even the top of his own division but he has arguably the best set of receivers around him in the NFL you You can make a case for with his tight end and his receiving core when healthy, because if KJ Ham was your third guy and he becomes what a lot of people projected him to become and top off the defense guy. And, you know, you have those, those guys one through four with that tight end, that's a great group. And, you know, there's, there's a lot of room to grow for those guys, but drew lock has to get them there. And so Judy can be the leader of that group. And you know, there's, there's a lot of room to grow for those guys, but drew lock has to get them there.
Starting point is 00:26:06 And so Judy can be the leader of that group. I don't think there's any question about it. He was drafted to be that way. Pedigree is there, but he's got a lot to prove. So he's going to be one of those guys that I think a lot of people are going to say breakout candidate for 2021 are going to put that label on them and rightfully so, but just depends on where you draft them and who you draft them ahead of,
Starting point is 00:26:23 or, you know, who you miss out on by taking him too soon. He's just such a talented player. I really, I still can't get over how bad his drops were in 2020. Hey, what about a player that you're going to drop? You're done with them. A wide receiver that you're just don't want to draft them in 2021.
Starting point is 00:26:40 Yeah. I took a little hanging fruit on this one and took a Julian Edelman. You know, it's a, it's a shame. You know, he's been so good for fantasy when he's been healthy. But, you know, unless they get the second coming of Tom Brady or he gets let go and goes someplace where he has a better quarterback, you know, they're obviously hitting the reset button on this team. The one thing that could change, you know, slightly for Julian Edelman would be if, if it's a guy like Jimmy Garoppolo,
Starting point is 00:27:05 just because there's a history there, you know, him walking in, knowing the system, being comfortable in Josh McDaniels offense, if McDaniels does in fact say, which it looks likely. So I think if you get some semblance of continuity, you know, Edelman will still return some value, but I mean, we're talking about, you know, double digit round receiver at this point, you know, he's not going to be anybody that someone's going to target in drafts. I'm going gonna have a tough decision this offseason because he's on one of my dynasty rosters and i'm running out of space of players that i want to hold on to to speculate on and so do i make a move to get rid of julian i'll probably end up keeping him because we
Starting point is 00:27:38 it's it's a dynasty that we're both in together dave and uh up to five receivers if we want to and he's uh he's like my seventh receiver. I have a really good receiving core there. You do. It's amazing. I don't know if I can justify going into the draft where I have to make five roster cuts, six roster cuts, six players to get open spots for the draft if he's going to make the cut.
Starting point is 00:28:01 That's how good my team is. But I would like to hold on to Julian Edelman in that scenario, but I think that's the kind of decision some people have to make in some dynasty roster. Do you think there's a chance he ends up reuniting with Brady somehow, some way? There's an obvious, you know, opening if the Patriots move on from Godwin and move on from Antonio Brown
Starting point is 00:28:19 or one of those guys. And Brady says, Hey, get me, you know, Edelman for one more run, you know, depending on how this year finishes for them. I can see that happening for sure. But. Would that make you interested in, in like, not just keeping them, but putting them in your lineup in that dynasty league that we're talking about. He won't crack that lineup. I mean, again, you know, I'm,
Starting point is 00:28:37 I'm lucky with that team because my receivers are Michael Thomas, Kenny Galladay, Tyree kill, Justin Jefferson, Deontay Johnson. I think that's five. Um, he's never going to play over those guys, you know? So I also have Michael Gallup and one other guy too. Um, so, you know, for me, he's never going to play on that team, but I think for people that have him as a fourth receiver, fifth receiver, you know, in those type of formats, you know, then you'll be more excited about it. If he's reunited with Brady, that's the thing. He's got to be with somebody who is he's reunited with Brady. That's the thing.
Starting point is 00:29:05 He's got to be with somebody who is going to lean on him. He's got to stay healthy. That's a big part of it as well. He's old. He's old. Yeah, seriously. He's got a bad quarterback situation. So not a very ideal fantasy wide receiver.
Starting point is 00:29:16 Not a lot to like about Julian Edelman in 2021. I want everybody listening to pick a round. Jamie, you can do this too. Pick a round in your mind where you would feel comfortable drafting Odell Beckham. Now, I know for a fact you're not going to say round one, round two. Maybe a few of you might say round three. I would say quit living in the past if you do. I don't want to take him with at least a pick in the first six rounds.
Starting point is 00:29:39 I know what his upside is, but I've seen his downside now for each of the past, what is it, like three or four years where he's gotten hurt. I mean, you know, he's good with the Giants. Well, but his first three years in the NFL, he was great. No one can say anything. He was on his way to being like one of the elite receivers in the NFL. And just his last year with the Giants and then his time in Cleveland just hasn't been that same guy. Injuries have been the biggest factor.
Starting point is 00:30:06 Attitude has been a factor as well. I would say that I'm done with him, except in both of the mocks that we did, he went in round seven. And I can't fault anybody for taking a guy who can give you, you're not drafting him to be a stud week in and week out all season. If he does that for you, that's great. But when he plays, if he can give you stud numbers half the time, I think that's worth taking a chance on in round seven.
Starting point is 00:30:29 But before then, I can't do it. I just think that he just hasn't been special enough to warrant a pick even that high as a top 60 type of player. I mean, obviously recovery is going to be a big part of this. How healthy is he for the start of the season? What do the Browns talk about tinkering in their offense richard higgins is a free agent so if he leaves you know that's one less mouth you have to worry about feeding as the number three receiver
Starting point is 00:30:51 um but i think the the encouraging part of of beckham is and this is probably like a ben gretch thing when the highs are high you're going to be thrilled to have him on your team the lows are going to be something you have to deal with. He had one really big game of the six that he played in the 38-point game against Dallas. He had a couple of others that were okay, but there
Starting point is 00:31:15 were a few that were down. He averaged seven targets a game in the six games that he played in Kevin Stefanski's offense. If you go back to the two years that he played with the Browns, the 22 games, half of those he hit 11 PPR points or more. So the floor wasn't bad in half of those games. But I do think the opportunity for him to be an elite-level fantasy receiver,
Starting point is 00:31:38 it's going to take a miracle in this offense, but he still could be a serviceable low-end starter for you. But he's no longer a guy I'm with you. I think around six is the spot that I would start to look for him. Round five is probably too soon because we're going to see receivers. You know, it's just the trend started last year. It's going to be even more so this year where those first two rounds are going to be dominated by running backs. Round three is going to be a split. And then three through five is going to be wide receiver, probably 10 through 30.
Starting point is 00:32:10 And so does he fall into that category? Probably, but he also might be outside of that. And so it's just going to be a mad rush of wide receivers in, in late round three, round four, round five. And I think he's going to be just outside of that, depending on how his recovery goes from the ACL. Three games in his last 23 with the Browns with 18 plus PPR points. Now I would say you're talking about elite level numbers there.
Starting point is 00:32:33 That's superstar level. Right. But he's rarely going to do that. I don't think that there's a chance that he can do that. Like when Devante Adams plays, you expect him to get more than 18 PPR points in a game because yeah I mean you know he's no longer in that mix he's he's in the right close very duty mix he that that's where Odell Beckham is right now now he has the ability to surpass those guys
Starting point is 00:32:55 if things are right I think the unfortunate thing for Beckham is like the entire 2019 season because Freddie Kitchens offense was a disaster everything was just bad for the Browns all the way around. This offensive line, better Baker, better compliment around him, because I think Hooper helps just from a more competent tight end, opening up things in the middle. I would have loved to see Beckham staying through the course of the season, just how things would have finished for him, because had things finished probably the way that they started, I don't know where you're gonna rank him
Starting point is 00:33:26 but he'll be in you know somewhere around 30 for me and if he if he if he had finished the season I think playing at the level that he showed you in those first six games he's probably closer to 23 24 as opposed to I'm putting him at 30 with the hope that he gets back to something close to what he was as opposed to okay okay, I'll settle for him here. I haven't ranked it yet, but I think I would rather take the player who I think is ascending in Judy, which is weird to say because he hasn't been great, obviously, than a player who could be descending in Odell Beckham. So of the receivers that we've talked about,
Starting point is 00:34:01 I think I'm taking Judy ahead of them all pretty much but let's talk about some receivers who i would take ahead of jerry judy guys that can break out in 2021 jamie give me one receiver oh t higgins i mean there's a lot obviously that fall in this category but t higgins is somebody that uh i'm sure a lot of people are excited about um you know you saw the the potential basically from week three on until Joe Burrow got hurt in week 11 that he, he's got superstar material and, you know, moving on from AJ Green that opens up more targets. We'll see what they do to replace Green. If in fact Green leaves, I mean,
Starting point is 00:34:34 there's obviously a chance he can still come back, but Higgins is going to be their number one guy. He, he, he looked the part. You know, I think a lot of people were looking at this as, as 2021 as the season for him to start to show something, but he accelerated that by leaps and bounds in his rookie campaign. So Burrow to Higgins, hopefully they get an offseason to work together. He's going to be a potential top 15 wide receiver for me going into the season in terms of rankings and a guy that will go in that round four range for sure.
Starting point is 00:35:06 I love T. Higgins. I think he's got a chance to ascend to be a top 12 receiver in fantasy this year. So looking forward to battling with you to get him in all of our drafts. I said I was talking about a receiver, a breakout candidate that we would take ahead of Jerry Judy. I got a name that I don't think I'm going to do that with, but I still like his chances to have a big year, and that's Michael Pittman with the Colts. I'm going to do that with but I still like his chances to have a big year and that's Michael Pittman with the Colts I'm assuming T.Y. Hilton's out the door that'll open things up for Pittman to be the number one receiver there I don't know what they're doing at quarterback but I can't imagine they're going to half-ass it and go with Brissette
Starting point is 00:35:38 I I like the size that he gives and I like that he's already running crossing routes he can add to that this offseason be a little more of a refined receiver don't like the size that he gives, and I like that he's already running crossing routes. He can add to that this offseason, be a little more of a refined receiver. Don't like the fact that he only had one touchdown in 2020, but he had a catch rate of 66%, 8.2 yards per target. I think he can improve on certainly the yards per target, but the catch rate, maybe a little bit that goes up. But I think that he's got a chance. I see him and I see Mike Evans. I see a big dude who's like a basketball player who can post up on smaller defensive backs and just rake in touchdowns. And I think Indianapolis is going to lean on that.
Starting point is 00:36:13 I think that's a great option for any quarterback off of play action because Jonathan Taylor will be a big threat in the run game. That'll open things up downfield for guys like Pittman. And if Hilton's not there, the opportunity is for Pittman to be the number one guy. Pittman would be someone that I would probably look to take right around that Judy Beckham range. Round seven-ish is where I'd really
Starting point is 00:36:33 like to get him and hope that he can start the season maybe on my bench potentially as a number three receiver but work his way up into being maybe a top 24 receiver by the end of the season. Potentially. I mean, no, I do think Hilton comes back. I could see a hometown discount for there for him to stay there.
Starting point is 00:36:53 You know, he just seems like that type of guy. He's pretty loyal. They're pretty loyal to him, but I don't think that matters for Pittman. I think he is going to be the number one receiver there. It's just a matter of obviously what the quarterback situation looks like. Who's the third receiver, which of the tight ends are back as well. You know, they have some decisions to make there uh but yeah Pittman absolutely has a chance to uh to fall into this category another another you know very popular breakout candidate um as most of these second year wide receivers will be yes so uh there's there's a lot to like you know especially for what his uh his opportunity is there in this office and I've been intoxicated
Starting point is 00:37:21 by Colts wide receivers before. Bears. Hopefully, Pittman does a little bit better than Mr. Campbell does in Indianapolis. Okay. When we come back from this break that you're about to hear, DFS talk for the conference championship games. Four teams, one lineup. Let's go. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference.
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Starting point is 00:38:49 and two of the greats. I actually had a debate with my brother-in-law about whether Aaron Rodgers belongs in the conversation of second-best quarterback in NFL history, because everybody gives it to Brady. I think the conversation should be had, but my brother-in-law put it like this. He has to win the Super Bowl this year. He has to win the MVP and then win the Super Bowl. And then
Starting point is 00:39:12 they can talk about Rodgers being ahead of guys like Peyton Manning or Joe Montana or whatever. I'm not even sure that that matters because Aaron Rodgers has been just amazing throughout the majority of his career. I think the argument can be made. I'm not saying that it is this way, but the argument can be made that Aaron Rodgers is the second best quarterback in NFL history. He's got to get the second Superbowl. You know,
Starting point is 00:39:34 I think you'll you'll get, you get more people on that side because he's going to win the MVP this year. He obviously has the numbers by the end of his career to be in that conversation. He's not going to catch Peyton, you know, obviously has the numbers by the end of his career to be in that conversation. He's not going to catch Peyton. Just the way that his career started, being on the bench, that'll hurt him in terms of his overall career numbers.
Starting point is 00:39:53 But his efficiency is going to be better. His turnover rate is going to be better. I think a lot of people will still put Peyton in that category. And Peyton is going to be a first ballot Hall of Famer once we find out the results of the voting for sure. Easy. Yep. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:40:08 He's, he's, he's in the conversation. He's already in the conversation to be on the Mount Rushmore of greatest quarterbacks of all time. You can't watch him play and not think that, but he needs, he needs some of those secondary numbers to,
Starting point is 00:40:18 to back that up. And the super bowl win will, will help that along with the second MVP, but he's got a good shot. I mean, they're, they're playing great football right now, and so can they overcome
Starting point is 00:40:27 their worst loss of the season, which was in Tampa Bay in week six? It sure was. They're three-point favorites. Do you have a favorite DFS play in the game between the Bucs and the Packers? I'm going to go to Ronald Jones as a guy that I like in this game. I hope that he's healthy. I do
Starting point is 00:40:43 think that people are going to run to Leonard Fournette. I get it. He's a better player in this game based on what we saw the last two games for Tampa Bay. But I like the way Jones ran in the game last week against New Orleans. And I think if he's healthy, he'll get some more opportunities to run the ball.
Starting point is 00:40:59 But you have to worry about the injury. But just based on price, he's somebody that I'm going to look at a lot. Brady's somebody I'm going to look at a lot as well, just because he's the cheapest of the four quarterbacks playing. Hopefully he still is playing as consistent. The thing I am concerned about, though, is this is a tough matchup for their receivers for Tampa Bay, because Jair Alexander is playing unbelievable right now.
Starting point is 00:41:21 Kevin King's playing really well. And they can negate those guys, especially if Antonio Brown is not a hundred percent, which clearly right now he's not dealing with that knee injury. So can Brady get by, as we saw in the, uh, in the previous round against the saints, you know, with throwing to his running backs, he did that against Washington as well with what Leonard Fournette, they can get by throwing to Cameron Brayton, taking some shots with, uh, Gronk, you know, somebody's going to have to get him that third touchdown for him to be successful because he'll probably get to, he had two in the first matchup as well um but you know brady is is great and then like i said on the fantasy football today in five show that we did
Starting point is 00:41:53 cameron brady's one of my favorite plays in this game just because of his price uh he's cheaper than gronk by 200 on each site fanduel andings, and he's had more targets in the two playoff games. He's had more catches in the two playoff games. He's become a go-to option for Brady right now. So I think just based on his price tag and what his production has been, he's going to be in a lot of my lineups also. Where does Valdez Scantling rate for you as a DFS play? Because I think he might be, I don't know if he's going to be a favorite play. Like I can't wait to get him in my lineup type of a play, but I figure that the Bucks run defense already good. And they're going to get Vita VEA back in the middle of that. That's going to make things tough on the Packers run game. And we've seen the secondary have lapses before in Tampa
Starting point is 00:42:39 Bay. I know they didn't quite have nearly as many last week because Drew Brees and the noodle arm really made them look better than I think they actually are. And I'm focused on trying to differentiate my lineup in DFS this week because there's going to be a lot of crossover. I mean, there's only four teams playing. So I wonder if Valdez Scantling, his price isn't really that bad. It's $3,900 on DraftKings. I wonder if you're going into a tournament, you just have to put him in there and you have to hope that he connects with Rodgers
Starting point is 00:43:08 on a deep throw or two. I mean, the thing that's encouraging is you had three receivers with eight-plus targets for the Packers last week. Adams was double digits. And then Valdez, Scantling, and Lazard both had eight. Lazard was the beneficiary last week. He had the big play, scored a touchdown.
Starting point is 00:43:23 A lot of things you find on social media about how that play was set up and Rodgers and Matt LaFleur knew it was a touchdown as soon as they saw the formation of the defense. So is it a Lazard week? Is it a Valdez-Scantling week? They'll take shots to Valdez-Scantling. It's just a matter of will he connect. So he's obviously should be in your lineups if you're trying to differentiate yourself for sure. You know, him, Gabriel Davis, Davis you know these type of players the the third option the fourth option Nicole Hardman Demarcus Robinson these are the type of guys that help you win Cameron Brake these type of players you know so this is the way you set yourself up to be successful is having players like this so absolutely after an eight target game with what he's shown you two of his last six he had two
Starting point is 00:44:02 huge games prior to last week. So if he hits, you're in great shape. If he misses, you didn't put the right player in your lineup. But again, if you're trying to win big, he is an absolute play for you this week. That's what I'm going for. I'm trying to win big. I want to be a little different. I'm hoping that he won't be popular compared to a lot of other players in the two games this weekend. I also think the Packers defense is worth paying up for. I don't really like any defense this week. Let's face it, it's the conference championship. These are the best four teams in the NFL this year.
Starting point is 00:44:32 Right, so you have to play one. And so what I'm thinking is that the majority of the people who are going to set a line up, they're just going to punt. They're going to put in Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is the cheapest defense on DraftKings. Buffalo is the cheapest defense on FanDuel. I want to go the other way. I want to zag when they're going to put in Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is the cheapest defense on DraftKings. Buffalo is the cheapest defense on FanDuel. I want to go the other way. I want to zag when they're zigging and take a chance with the Packers defense, which by
Starting point is 00:44:52 the way, has been playing really well for the last, I would say four or five weeks. And I know that Cam Akers ran pretty nicely against them last week and they started to look like that bad run defense that they were in the middle of the season. But you talked about the secondary and I think the pass rush is going to be good. And it's Tom Brady who is capable of having a huge game, but last week was an example of him not putting up a lot of huge numbers. So I'm thinking that maybe the Packers defense is a sneaky play this week in this game, just to differentiate. And the other problem is that it is expensive, and you are going to burn a lot more of your salary to go with the Packers defense.
Starting point is 00:45:26 But if you have any thoughts on that, Jamie, you can let me know if that's a good idea or should I just, I would personally play the bills defense because they're cheap. And if my homes gets hurt again, he's got the toe injury. No, everybody's overlooking the toe,
Starting point is 00:45:40 the toe foot problem. If that flares up and he can't go for whatever reason, that's the defense that I'm going to look at because, like you said, they're all playing. The thing about what we tend to overlook when we talk about these great offenses because you get mesmerized by them, the teams that make these Super Bowl runs, their defenses get overshadowed. The Chiefs defense last year was playing so well toward the end of the season,
Starting point is 00:46:02 unless you have like the 49ers defense, you know, which was the strength of their team. But when you have these great offenses all four of these offenses are so good but the Packers defense why have they been successful recently their defense has been great the secondary getting healthy we talked about that at the end of the fantasy season once they got Alexander and King back on the field it was very difficult to throw against them the Bills defense what they did last week was fantastic you're starting to see a little bit better performance on that side of the ball and And then the two teams in the, well, the Packers, excuse me,
Starting point is 00:46:28 but the Bucs getting Veya back. What their secondary was getting Carlton Davis back. Remember, he missed the end of the season, so that secondary is a lot better. So I don't know if there's a great defense to play this week. I probably would go the opposite route and avoid spending the extra money on the Packers, even though they are playing better. And Brady going outside in the cold could be a bad situation for him. So they're a good defense to use.
Starting point is 00:46:47 But if we're just talking about saving a few bucks, like on Fandle, you save $1,000 by going from the Packers to the Bills. And if Mahomes suffers a re-aggravation of that toe injury, I'll take my chances against Chad Henney. Sure. I get that. I get that completely. Kelsey was amazing in the game last week. And I bring that up. And when we'll talk about this game in a second,
Starting point is 00:47:08 it's the bills and the chiefs, the winner goes to the super bowl. Kelsey was one of the guys that Jacob Gibbs talked about in our FFT and five podcasts last week. He mentioned in great detail about how he does against zone and how zone defenses really open things up for guys like tight ends. And it was, it was awesome advice and it was a must-listen.
Starting point is 00:47:27 And Jacob's going to be back with me on FFT in five tomorrow for the playoff games. He's going to have more of these amazing stats. You can get all the stats that you need for both that game, Bill's Chiefs, and for Bucks Packers on that episode, and it's just five minutes long. And, and the notorious Conor McGregor is back. UFC 257 is live this weekend from Abu Dhabi,
Starting point is 00:47:52 and McGregor will be headlining versus Dustin Poirier. This will be their second time fighting. Conor won the first match via first-round TKO, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't count out Dustin, who's 10-2 since losing to McGregor back in September of 2014. Man, what a rematch. And Morning Combat is the place to get all of your UFC 257 content. Fighter interviews, like with Poirier, Chandler, and more.
Starting point is 00:48:16 Previews with UFC Hall of Famer Rashad Evans. And, of course, instant reaction to UFC 257 right when it ends. Download and subscribe to Morning Combat on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, wherever else podcasts are found for the best coverage around the combat sports world. And again, the name of that podcast is Morning Combat. Bill's Chiefs. Jamie, your favorite play in that game? Favorite play is probably still Darrell Williams.
Starting point is 00:48:49 Again, price cheaper than Clyde Edwards-Hilaire. And you don't want to look back. Both these games are rematches from what happened earlier this season. There are some things you could look at and say, okay, this could be replicated. I do think Mike Evans will struggle against Jack Alexander. We've seen that from Evans. He struggled against Lattimore. Those type of things. I don't think Rodgers is going to will struggle against Jack Alexander. We've seen that from Evans. He struggled against a lot of more, you know, those types of things.
Starting point is 00:49:06 I don't think Roger's going to struggle against the bucks to the level that he did, but there's clearly that potential. But if you are looking for just something that can be replicated, we know that the bill's weakness is the run defense and they allowed the chiefs. And I think a lot of teams allow the chiefs to run on them, but the chiefs did in that game, Edward, Clyde Edwards-Solaire had 26 carries for 161 yards in that game. And Darrell Williams has now played two games basically as the featured running back
Starting point is 00:49:30 without Edwards-Solaire on the field. It was week 16, the first game without. Edwards-Solaire was against Atlanta. He had 14 total touches in that game. And then we saw last week he had the 13 carries, average six yards a carry against the Browns, and four catches on four targets. So I think even if Edwardsett Soler plays, he's still going to have a significant role to what level we'll find out. But he could be now their Leonard Fournette ahead of Ronald Jones in that same comparison as the second guy stepping up, playing more than the first guy.
Starting point is 00:49:55 So based on his price, based on what the opportunity is, if this game becomes a track meet like a lot of people are expecting it to be, which I think it will as well, Williams in the passing game will play over Edward Solera because I do think there's a little bit more trust from the Holmes based on what Williams has done. That's a good call. I like it.
Starting point is 00:50:12 I like Kelsey as just an obvious put in your lineup and then build around that type of guy. And he's going to obviously be popular, but you just look at the numbers he's been putting up. It's like 90 yards and a touchdown in five of his last six games, something ridiculous like that. And not to bring up Jacob again, but the whole tight ends
Starting point is 00:50:30 or Kelsey against zone coverage thing, he's going to see a lot of zone coverage against Buffalo. That's what they do. That's what they did when they played them earlier this year. I'm certain that that's what they're going to do a lot of again this week.
Starting point is 00:50:41 And I think Kelsey just continues dominating against that defense really don't need to go into travis kelsey is why he's a good start twice in that first game uh he only had seven it was a weird game because that was uh tyree kill uh i don't think it was like his first bad game of the year uh yeah he wasn't he wasn't healthy at that point he only had three targets three catches for 20 yards uh played most most of the game though. Yeah. But they, you know, Patrick Holmes only threw the ball 26 times in that game, you know, so, or I'm sorry, he only completed 26 passes.
Starting point is 00:51:11 Oh no, he threw 26 times. He only completed 21. 21 of 26, something like that. 21, 26. You know, so, you know, I, that's probably going to be a half for him in this game, you know? So I think you'll see the targets up the bills. Look for the most part, when Milano's been on the field
Starting point is 00:51:25 the last couple of seasons, they've been really good against tight ends. But we saw the breakdown against the Colts, and last week they were a little bit better. You know, we'll see. But I also think that I'd go back to Cole Beasley in this game. You know, John Brown was the big player last week. Beasley, I think, has a chance to bounce back and play well in this game. Secondary's banged up for the Chiefs.
Starting point is 00:51:43 So there's a chance here for – obviously Diggs is going to be the guy, but for both John Brown and Cole Beasley, but Beasley's a little bit cheaper right now. Totally stole my guy. I thought he was like the best sleeper play in this game. Put him right into my lineup as well with Kelsey. One thing I wanted to mention on Kelsey, the price difference on him
Starting point is 00:51:58 between FanDuel and DraftKings is only 600. So he's almost a better play on FanDuel than DraftKings because of it, but really he's a great play either way. That's not the case with Cole Beasley. He's 1600 less on DraftKings. That's huge. So I don't know if I'm going to definitely start. And the same thing with Valdez-Scantling. Valdez-Scantling's price is in the stratosphere on FanDuel, not so much on DraftKings. So if I'm going to play those two guys, I'd rather just load up lineups with them on DraftKings and maybe sprinkle them a little bit on FanDuel. Do you have picks for this game,
Starting point is 00:52:26 Jamie or both games? Who's going to the super bowl? I mean, you know, it's, it's hard to get away from the chalk. So I, yeah,
Starting point is 00:52:32 for the playoff started, chiefs Packers was my super bowl pick. I think I'll stick with it. I, I look personally speaking, I think it would be great for CBS to get Mahomes versus Rodgers or Brady. I would love to see Josh Allen in the Super Bowl, but obviously from a marketing standpoint, it works out better if it's Mahomes versus one of those two guys. But I do think it's going to be Chiefs Packers.
Starting point is 00:52:55 I do too. I started the week thinking that the Bills had a shot. And the more I thought about their defense, the more I thought that Mahomes, assuming he's playing and he's fine, should be able to overcome it. It should be a close game. I think both games could be fairly close. I think the AFC game will be a little bit closer, but I agree with you. I think the home teams will win, and we will get a rematch of Super Bowl I with the Packers and the Chiefs.
Starting point is 00:53:15 Jamie, thank you for the insight. Thanks for all that you do. Thank you for being a part of this podcast. Thank you for listening or watching us on YouTube. Thank you, producer Shraggy B. I'm Dave Richard. Enjoy the games this weekend, everybody. Thanks for coming out.

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