Fantasy Football Today - WR Tiers and Brandon Aiyuk's Trade Request (07/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 17, 2024

If you support the show, please nominate Fantasy Football Today for The People's Choice Podcast Awards in the "Sports" Category: https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup/ Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Brandon Aiyuk has officially requested a trade. We spend the first portion of the show talking about how this would impact Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall. Then we get to the WR tiers (12:10) and discuss if Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown belong in Tier 1 ... Tier 2 (15:00) is kind of an easy one, but Tiers 3 and 4 (20:15) are anything but. How do you separate guys like Chris Olave and Nico Collins from players like Mike Evans and Michael Pittman? Then we're on to Tier 5 (35:15) which is loaded with talented players. Are they really that much different than the Tier 3 WRs? ... Tier 6 (42:00) could represent your last chance to get a reliable WR because Tier 7 (46:40) is exciting yet risky with guys like Christian Watson, Ladd McConkey and DeAndre Hopkins. And we finish with Tiers 8-12 (50:30). At this point in the draft, are we looking for upside or floor? ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is gonna go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Happy training camp day, everyone. Is that a thing? Training camp day on the calendar?

Yeah, it's a thing. It's a thing for us. The Texans begin all the veterans have reported for training camp. Training camp is underway for the Houston Texans. They are the first team to get going. That is Wednesday, July 17th. Feels a little early. Feels a little early. I don't know. Not ready for it yet.

Not ready for all the daily stories about nothing that we're going to overreact to. Let's do it right now. We got one right at the top, right? What, Brandon Ayuk? Yeah. You think that's nothing?

I think it's mostly nothing. All right. He has formally requested a trade. Also, Ricky Pearsall is on the active non-football injury list. That's hopefully nothing. But that's Heath. Jamie's here as well. I'm Adam. Jamie, is this nothing? Is this Brandon Ayuk thing nothing? I hope it's nothing.

I mean, it would be very surprising if they made a trade at this point knowing that they're a Super Bowl contender and he's a key part of it. And they don't have to do anything. They could just play this out and then either decide to franchise tag him or move on from him next year. But it'll be a story if he holds out. So that's something to keep an eye on if he decides that he's going to be a malcontent, I guess, and not show up. But if you're expecting him to be on a different team right now, it would have to be just an overwhelming offer for them to consider moving Brandon. Like I was thinking about this,

like would Terry McLaurin and a pick get it done? Cause it seems like he wants to be in Washington. Yeah. I just wonder if they have to obviously have to pay pretty soon. So I thought maybe that this, this had some legs to it that one of the receivers would have to get traded because they just, they're extending a lot of people.

Like, I guess from my perspective that it's nothing, I not consider moving Brandon. I, you at all in my rankings. It's not like I thought about it and then just didn't do it. This had zero impact on where I had. I,

you projected or ranked. If I thought he was going to, I honestly, if we thought Brandon, I, you was seriously potentially going to get traded. if we thought Brandon Ayuk was seriously potentially going to get traded, George Kittle

should probably be in round three and Debo should be a top 12 wide receiver. Round three. But I'm not even, I'm not even considering that. Yeah. I'll give you some numbers.

I mean, the thing of it, you don't really have, and by the way, today's topic is wide receiver tiers, but we do have to obviously address the AyK story here that he has formally requested a trade.

So we'll get to wide receiver tiers in a moment. They played one game last year without Brandon IUK. Brock Purdy, 25 of 37, 310 yards, two touchdowns. This was a Thursday night game against the Giants. Purdy scored 24.3 points and six points per pass in touchdown leagues. McCaffrey had a huge game. Deebo Samuel had 12 targets. That was one of only two games where he had more than nine targets.

So that was tied for a season high. He scored 25 points, Deebo Samuel. George Kittle had seven catches for 90 yards on nine targets. There's not really much of a sample of Ayuk missing games. I think he's missed one game in the last three seasons. There are examples of Deebo and Kuke missing games. I think he's missed one game in the last three seasons. There are examples of Debo and Kittle missing games, and Kittle's really benefited

when Debo's been out more than Debo benefited when Kittle was out, I'd have to say. Third round is rich, Heath, but based on what he's done without Debo Samuel on the field, which isn't the same as Iuke, but still it frees up targets.

Like, yeah, he would be that good. I'm also maybe the highest on Kittle before saying that. So that's just me, a two-round bump. I've basically got him in round five as tight end five now. So like if you have him in round six or seven, then you might say he should be at round four or five pick. But I think it's a two-round bump. But I just don't think it's going to happen.

Yeah, it wouldn't be that for me because they have another pretty significant piece that we have yet to see how they're going to use them in Ricky Pearsall, you know? So that's part of it. And I think the other side of this is like, if you're doing any best ball drafts, you're doing any, you know, Scott Fishbowl, for example, anything where, you know, trying to make a big swing Kittle's a great draft pick obviously, in Fishbowl because of the tight end premium scoring.

But there is still the possibility of, you know, we see these Super Bowl hangovers, you know, for the losing teams, that if they're out of it and they can get something significant form of the trade deadline, maybe they do make a move. But I think, like, for me, like, I took Deebo Samuel purposely ahead of his ADP and ahead of where I would normally take him in the fishbowl for two reasons. One, this was, you know, potential situation, but really for, for what the 49ers are like Debo in particular, he would benefit from this, but also I think he'd benefit if there's a McCaffrey injury, because I think he'd go back to being, getting more carries, like, and maybe not what we saw in 2021 before McCaffrey was part of the team. But I think there's a McCaffrey injury, because I think he'd go back to getting more carries. Maybe not what we saw in 2021 before McCaffrey was part of the team, but I think there's just so many moving parts with this team,

with Pearsall being sort of the wild card in all of this. How much will he impact anybody if there is an absence? How much will he impact the other two guys that would typically benefit? Well, just to give some numbers here, it's not really apples to apples, but it maybe helps. 11 games last year where all of the main cogs for the 49ers played a normal snap share,

including the postseason. So that's McCaffrey, Debo, Iyuk, and Kittle. Iyuk and Debo. Iyuk was on pace for 116 targets. Debo, 109 targets. McCaffrey and Kittle were both on pace for 88 targets. And that's what scares me about Kittle. We had 90, right?

Last year? For the season? Yeah. I'm not sure. He finished with 90, yeah. Okay. Yeah. So, anyway, that's not a lot.

But if you look at the six games over the last two seasons that Kittle has played without Debo Samuel, one of those games Debo played less than half the snaps, so I counted that. He's been on pace for 122 targets. And Debo has also had a huge jump, but it's kind of hard to explain. But I don't know that it was necessarily because of Kittle because he was also getting the same amount of targets

during that same stretch of the season with George Kittle. But anyway, you would obviously get a target jump. Your question is, what would you get from Pearsall? If Iyuk got traded and they didn't bring back McLaurin, they didn't bring back a receiver, would Pearsall be a top 100 pick for you guys?

Easily. Yeah. Jamie's more excited about Pearsall than i am i think what's become obvious in the first six minutes yeah um i i think he's mostly going to get the leftovers right either way like oh he's definitely he's definitely not leapfrogging kittle or debo that goes without saying but it's it's not as if and you know no slight the the joan jennings of the world but he's not you know going to be think, viewed as an afterthought with the investment that they made in him. You know, they clearly targeted this player to be a significant part of their offense,

whether it's this year in the absence of one of the other guys, or certainly next year, if they move on from not only just Brandon Ayuk, I mean, you know, you mentioned it, Adam, they, they're coming up to a pretty big contract and some other guys that are going to need to get paid. They may move on from both those guys. You know, I think a lot of people thought when they made the Pearsall move, it was they're going to extend that. You can maybe move on from Debo because he's getting older. And, you know, his skill set isn't exactly the thing that will age very well, you know, based on how he plays. Do you think that there's a chance the 49ers deal better with the Super Bowl hangover since they've already had experience losing a Super Bowl?

Yeah, I mean, it really, for me, it comes down to injury. You know, it's what happens to this team if McCaffrey falls apart, you know, because 28 years old and 400 total touches. We've seen the receivers miss time, you know, and a lot of it really is defensively. You know, they're already down Greenlaw, right, because of the Achilles tear, or at least to start the season. It could be some just

carry over from that. Jamie, you fell for the trap there. Don't indulge Chiefs fan Heath. That was just a Chiefs brag. This offense has a reputation of being difficult for rookie wide receivers to pick up. I would just point out Brandon Ayuk averaged over 60 yards per game as a rookie.

He only played 12 games, but he was on pace for 85 catches, 1,060 yards, and seven touchdowns as a rookie. Pretty damn good. He had a bad sophomore season, and then he's really emerged. Okay. Other news and notes. Devontae Adams, his agent said that there is, have been no trade talks and Adams is expected to be with the Raiders giants. Tight end.

Theo Johnson is on the pup list with a hip injury come off. Obviously anytime maybe Daniel Bellinger, maybe this helps Daniel Bellinger become a streamer. And I try Jamie. I tried to finish hard knocks before the show started. I think I got about two thirds of the way there. I think I got about two-thirds of the way there. I'm sure you watched it already, right? I did, yes.

Yeah, yeah. They seemed to like Devin Singletary. They had a decision. Devin Singletary, not to say, they had a discussion. I don't know if this was a decision, but Devin Singletary for $5 million or DeAndre Swift for $6 million, with the idea that they had to save any penny that they could, because I think they were trying to get Brian Burns at the the time and they were like totally fine with singletary in

my mind swift is worth more than a million dollars a year more than singletary but i think they really like devon singletary well i mean keep in mind where devon singletary came from to start his career right he's a table guy so they they like him a lot was a is it? Shine guy. Shane. Yeah. All right. Podcast awards. Vote for us. Please go to podcast awards dot com. Hit that nominate button and then nominate fantasy football today in the sports category and the people's choice category.

Fantasy football today. You know the name of the show, right? Yeah. So it's podcast awards dot com. Please nominate us. I did it today from a second email account. Don't tell Podcast Awards. And it took me about 30 seconds.

So is that okay? I did it from my work email account. Is that kosher? I hope we didn't just get kicked out of the contest. All these people are going to vote and you get us eliminated because of cheating. Actually, yeah. I kind of regret saying that. It's only one vote, you know? But I, the only-

Has your wife voted yet? No. Right. I won't let her vote. Did you let your kids vote? No, they haven't voted. Just two- Then why are you not doing this?

I mean, we need all the votes we can get. Like, what's wrong with you? I only did it so I can tell you how long it took. And it took me about 30 seconds. Okay. We're going to take a break. We're going to come back. What you should have said was you just went through the whole process. You just didn't hit submit, but you did the whole thing.

That's right. I didn't hit submit. You're absolutely right. I never hit submit. Yeah. We're going to get to Jamie's wide receiver tiers. Does Amon Ross St. Brown belong in tier one? We'll talk about that when we come back on Fantasy Football today.

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they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can. They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer. Your game time tastes like Miller time. Learn more at MillerLite.ca. Must be legal drinking age. A bit accused of voter fraud by Thomas Sch schaefer okay i'll keep throwing them at me all right here we go uh wide receiver tiers tier one is five wide receivers lamb hill jefferson chase i'm on russ saint brown heath any disagreements here with tier one i agree with all

of those guys in tier one i actually include aj brown as. It's a it's a it's a big tier for me this year at the top with. But I definitely think like your question before the break, does ARSB belong in tier one? Without a doubt, especially when we're hearing now that he played through like 17 injuries last year. Yeah, he scored about 20.8 PPR fantasy points per game on Ross St. Brown. That's three fewer points per game than CeeDee Lamb and Tyree Kill averaged last year. And that's coming off 119 catches, 1,515 yards, 10 touchdowns on 164 targets.

And I guess my question is, can he really do better than that? Can St. Brown do better than that and score more than roughly 21 points per game? Can he? Yes. Is it realistic? Probably not. I don't know if that's the ceiling, but it feels like it's probably pretty close, just knowing what they typically do when they're close to the goal line in terms of how they run the ball.

And Laporta, I think there's still room for him to grow. And clearly, there's a lot of expectations being placed on Jamison Williams. So, you know, I think he could replicate that, though. That's the thing. Like, I think he's certainly going to be in that range again, which is why I'm confident in him. And I think, like, you know, depending on where you look, there are people that like him better than Justin Jefferson because of his quarterback situation. You know, knowing that he's locked in with Jared Goff as opposed to Jefferson being with who knows who. I don't think we're like,

I don't think we're in that group consensus wise, but there are certainly other places. Like I went back and looked at a magazine draft I did two months ago and I got Jefferson at nine and St. Brown went three picks before him. And like, this is probably a little bit of that same conversation we have with McCaffrey,

Bijan and Brees yesterday, like later in the tears, it's pretty easy to separate these by like, if there's a point per game gap between them, that's a big deal. If we did that at the very top, then you might have three tiers at the very top. I also think it's,

I don't fully expect Tyreek and lamb to both be 23 points per game. Yeah. Yeah. That might. Yeah. I lamb to both be 23 points per game. Yeah. Yeah. That might. Yeah. I, I've only brought up the points per game. It might help people differentiate between like,

okay, this is what I'm going to take RB two. So, cause maybe they feel like St. Brown can't quite reach the heights of the other four. I don't know if you guys feel that way. Are we entirely sure that Justin Jefferson can with Sam Darnold and a rookie or that Jamar Chase can? Chase hasn't really been a 23 fantasy

point per game guy ever. No, he has not. Okay, so that's up for, I guess, everybody else to decide. So we go to tier two, AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson, Puka Nakua, and Marvin Harrison. That's tier two for Jamie, AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson, Puka Nakua, Marvin Harrison. And that takes us to nine wide receivers. But Heath, why do you have AJ Brown in tier one? He was what, 18 fantasy points per game last year, scoring seven touchdowns. I think there's no doubt that he has 10, 12 touchdown upside to join that next year. Just completely dominated targets over Devontae Smith last year.

And Kellen Moore showing up, who I think will increase the pass volume. I actually have A.J. Brown projected for more fantasy points than Jamar Chase. I just have Chase higher in the rankings. We talked about Brown yesterday as kind of that bridge guy at nine. And I think he's the other wide receiver that i definitely think should be a first round pick if you could combine aj brown's catches from last year which was 106 and his touchdowns in 2022 which was 11 because he had right around the same amount of yards right about 1470 is470. He was like right in the middle. Then you'd have like that guy, right?

I think you could. Yeah. Yeah, he went from 11 touchdowns to seven, but he went from 88 catches to 106. So hopefully, and he was the number two, he was the number two wide receiver per game in the first nine games of the year. And then the whole offense kind of fell apart. Right. Right.

Yeah. So, okay. We combine Tyree kills numbers the last two years with Patrick Mahomes. Like if we're going to combine things, uh, I don't think this is a very good insult.

I was, uh, I'm going to, I'm going to call you out on that. I think you're insulting you. I was just trying to see what else we could combine. Like you're definitely insulting me. No,

it wasn't. I think you could do better. I think you have done better. I promise you. I was not trying to see what else we could combine. You're definitely insulting me. No, I wasn't. I think you could do better. I think you have done better. I promised you I was not insulting you. You think I'm insulting you a lot this week, and I'm not. Of course you are. So, I mean, like a friendly ribbing. No, I'm just saying, like, it's not impossible for A.J. Brown to score double-digit touchdowns.

Unfortunately, the Eagles don't throw as many touchdown passes as the Cowboys, the Dolphins. I think they throw more this year than they did last year. It's kind of the point. Okay. The rest of the guys are Garrett Wilson, Puka Nakua, and Marvin Harrison. Jamie, what do you have to say about tier two? I struggle with Harrison. Does he belong in this tier or the next one? And so it was more a question of more, more decision based on, you know, he sort of referenced it, you know, AJ Brown being a guaranteed first round pick. It feels like Marvin Harrison is one of the first picks in the second round.

He is for me, you know, one of the first picks in round two. And so I kind of put him closer to that group than I do the Drake London, Chris Olave, Jalen Waddle, Nico Collins group, which is the next year, you know? So I think if Harrison hits and it's a big, you know, if, but if he hits, he's going to, you know, be a borderline first round pick. He's got that much upside and that much potential in the offense that he's in. And I think Puka is the guy here that I actually would just put in a tier of his own. Because you look at what he did as a rookie last year, and there's, it's very easy to

just argue a guy does that as a rookie, he should be in tier one. Wait until you see what he does in year two. And it's very easy to say, well, Cooper Cup wasn't healthy, and Pukanuku is not going to be as good. But what Pukanuku has done compared to what Garrett Wilson's done in the NFL, it's just a massive difference. Yeah, yeah.

But there's probably also more risk for Puka this year just because of the Cooper Cup situation. They both have old quarterbacks. Yeah. Well, I guess I think this is encouraging. You tell me if this is encouraging or discouraging. I have often talked about how Jameer Gibbs was RB 10 per game after David Montgomery returned from injury last nine games of the season.

Let's just look at what Nakua did in the 12, 12 games. He played with Cooper cup. He was the number eight wide receiver overall on a per game basis. He was 13th and half PPR 12th in full PPR on pace for 1,337 yards, six touchdowns, 144 targets. So again, that's a borderline top 12 receiver. His ADP is probably going to be somewhere around eighth.

But that's with Cooper Cup playing, and that's as a rookie. It's amazing. The only negative question on that is what Cooper Cup was that? Was he 100% for the second? If Cooper Cup's 100%, is he back to seeing 12 targets a game? It's a tough question to answer because, you know, 31 years old, and it's two years, you know, of dealing with injuries for him, not just one. The other part of that, though, for me is, you know, in those 12 games,

six of them he was 18 points per game or more. You know, so when he hit, he hit big. Nakua or Cup? Yeah. Nakua. Nakua. Yeah, the thing that was really missing when Cup was there were the red zone, end zone, green zone targets.

That was Cup's thing. And that's, you know, not great. But the fact that as a rookie in 12 games with Cup, granted, it was a compromised Cup. I think even Sean McVay said last month, you have no idea all the things that Cup was dealing with. He was still a top 12 receiver. So that's pretty impressive.

All right, let's go to tier three. Yeah, I mean, it's a pretty obvious, right? It's pretty obvious drop off from those nine to this group of Drake, London, Olave, Jalen Waddle, Nico Collins. Jamie, is this is this a pretty big drop from tier two to tier three? I don't know if it's a pretty big drop, but it's a drop. You know, I mean, it's, you know, again, starting with Harrison, you have guys that have yet to really do what the guys in front of them have done or have the ability to do, you know, cause it's not really fair to say that Garrett Wilson's done it. And clearly Puka has got a one year sample size, but you know, with,

with Waddle and Nico, you've, you've seen the highs, you know, you saw it for Waddle two years ago, you saw it for Nico last year. We're hoping that's the case for London and Olave. And I know Heath will disagree on, on London, which I understand for, for those two guys though, you know, you're, you're seeing things, the, the runway is clear, you know, for them to, you know, take, you're seeing things, the runway is clear for them to take that step forward. And that's the hope. And so for me, I buy into what London is capable of doing. And the same thing for Olave. It's funny because I was on HQ yesterday and one of the questions

was, where's a good landing spot for Ayuk? And I thought New Orleans makes some sense just because following Kubiak and not really having an established number one guy and that kind of speaks to where Olave is right now like he's not an established number one guy but I hope he gets there and he's got the opportunity to get there but yeah these four guys are all receivers I would take in round two and uh you know you see tier four if you're watching on YouTube you know I like them better than the two older guys that that most people might take ahead of if not all four of these guys certainly a couple of them in davante adams and mike evans based on adp i just want to say this is where the jamie's ageism starts to show up i think because that that's that evans adams and cooper cup even in tier four um i know

i'm jumping the gun i've got evans and cup and Pittman and Waddle in tier three. So Pittman's probably the one that is just more of a it's a full PPR argument just because of the target volume. But yeah, I mean, you've got just got to decide how much the age of Mike Evans and Cooper Cup bothers you and Cup has at least has had the injuries. That's something else to be worried about. Yeah, all right. There are a lot of names here, and this goes back to a show that Jamie and I did on June 4th. So that's a long time ago at this point. It's July 17th. June 4th, we talked about this group, and it was who were the best wide receivers to draft in rounds two and three. We basically said there's like a group of 10-ish wide receivers that you could more or less see going in any

order. I think Olave is certainly going to gravitate toward the top of that list, but Adams could go ahead of just about all of them. People love Brandon Ayuk. They love him. He's a second round pick in a lot of drafts I see. You just heard Heath give some love to Michael Pittman. So the order is going to be fascinating for tiers three and four. I know you kind of just said it, but is there something that separates for you, Jamie, like any one particular thing that separates tiers three and four? And let me just read the names. Tier three for Jamie, London, Olave, Waddle, Nico Collinsins london olave waddle nico collins these guys are in their prime tier four adams evans the old guys iuk debo pitman cup

it's his upside versus downside you know that's what separates it for me i feel like there's much more upside with the guys in tier three and more downside for a handful of the guys or a couple of the guys in tier four. It's not fair to say handful when there's only six of them, but, um, uh, the, the upside is, you know, year three and year four receivers. So London Olave year three, the breakout is in front of them. You know, if, if Kirk cousins is back to being Kirk cousins, Drake London should be. You know, if Kirk Cousins is back to being Kirk Cousins, Drake London should be a very good, if not dominant fantasy receiver. If Derek Carr can take hold of this offense

and the things that Chris Olave should be able to do for Clint Kubiak, he should be dominant. And then Waddle, I think, you know, you go back to the injuries last year was a problem for him more so than anything else. Nico Collins, I know there's going to be a lot of you go back to the injuries last year was a problem for him more so than anything else. Nico Collins. I know there's going to be a lot of debate of who's the best Texans receiver. It makes sense.

If you want to avoid him at cost, I get that, but it feels as if the things that he does and the things that he should do once again for CJ Stroud, despite the presence of Stefan Diggs and the healthy return of tank Dell separate him for me from these other guys. He said, you know, Pittman's the one I struggle with because I still think there's going to be a touchdown issue for him. I know last year you could say that was a Minshew thing. You know, it might just be a Pittman thing because it's happened for the majority of his career. And we just have not seen it with Anthony Richardson completely. You know, we had the week one game where he got the targets and, you know, needed the screen pass to score the touchdown, but that could still be a little bit of an issue for him

in terms of reaching his high end potential. The 49ers guys, you mentioned Adam, you know, a lot of people are excited about IUK. It's a target thing for me, you know, so it, I like them as number two receivers, but I don't want to overvalue either one of them. And then I'm just concerned about Adams and Evans and cup at their ages. Cup scares me the most, which is why he's the lowest of the group, but Adams and Evans just entering that point where we could see them fall off the cliff. I don't, I don't, I hope that doesn't happen, but you know, I'm just scared of it based on how the age and history of,

of players that position when they reach this age, how they perform. Yeah. I think like that almost entirely the whole tier break could just be described by age, right? Like, isn't everybody in tier except for Pittman and Iuke. Iuke's what?

26. Like all these other guys, London, a lot of a waddle Collins. They're young enough to where you can hope they can go do something more than what they've done before, especially London and Alave. Fair. And with Cup and Adams and Evans,

they're old enough that we're thinking they're not going to do what they have done before. I don't know that I totally agree with the idea that it's fair to say Drake London has more upside than Cooper Cup. That's hard to make that argument, I think, based on what we've seen from them in their careers. But he's certainly he's on the young side, so he could be a lot better than he has been in cups on the old sides. He might be a lot worse. Yeah, I mean, at some point, you know, what a guy's done in his past is is certainly relevant.

But that's when you see the, you know, players on, like you, you would have said last year, I wouldn't take Nico Collins over Cooper cup. And obviously you would now. It's hard to make a blanket statement when you're comparing four players to six players,

right? Like, so tier three again is, I know if you're watching, it's easy, but if you're not, uh, if you're just listening,

it's London, Olave, Waddle, Nico, and then tier four, Adams, Evans, Iuke, Debo, Pittman, Kup. I would disagree. I agree with you that tier four has more downside than tier three,

but I don't think that tier four has less upside necessarily, especially Adams to me. You mentioned Kup, Heath, but I think Adams. I personally think Adams has more upside than anyone on this list because I think he could get 170 targets. I don't really see that potential for anyone else. Maybe Pittman? No.

I mean, Cup was still at almost over nine targets, playing at 70% last year, right? I think Cup could absolutely. I won't split hairs with you on Cup, I guess. And Cup has a better quarterback. Right, but Adams is like one of them. Adams is the only guy. Fine, I mean, I'm fine.

That's fine. We don't have to bicker about that. But I still think that Adams has more upside than anyone in tier three. London, Olave, Waddle Collins, much more downside because of the age, Jamie. But do you feel,

do you, I know you've never, you haven't been big on Adams throughout this off season. Do you still feel like he has that upside though? I don't. I think, you know, he's been,

he's benefited despite some poor quarterback play the last couple of years because of the 170 plus targets. And we saw him go from 19 PPR points per game to 15. I don't think he's going to slip much further than that. And clearly what he did at the end of the season with Ed and O'Connell was still pretty special. You know, he had those, those four games where he was still producing at a high level, but now you're bringing in another player who's going to, I don't think command enough targets that you have to worry about Adams completely. I mean, clearly I'm not saying you're not, you shouldn't be drafting him. He's still around three pick for me, but how much does Brock Bowers

factor into this? Because, you know, the investment that they made in him should allow him to get some opportunities that are different than anybody else. And there's still Jacoby Myers there. And, you know, again, I think he's nailed it, that if Samir white stays healthy, he's going to be in, in conversation for league leaders and carries. And so a little bit of a downturn in pass volume, if that's possible, but still there, plus targets going to other places. So will he be able to thrive at 150 targets, at 140 targets? It's still a very high number. And again, I still think he'll be successful, but I don't know if he's going to be dominant and have that same type of upside as he's had in the past. So that's why he's a little bit lower. Okay. So give me one second here through, I am looking at Pete Prisco's top 100 players. He has Devante Adams 26 overall, but his fifth

highest ranked wide receiver, maybe sixth, but I don't think so. I think it's fifth. And then ESPN just published the top 10 wide receivers in the NFL as voted on by like, it said 80 voters submitted a ballot on at least one position. They surveyed league executive coaches and scouts to help us rank the top 10 in every position. Their top 10 wide receivers, Jefferson, Hill, Chase, Lamb, Devontante Adams. So a lot of people still think Adams is still a great receiver. Just because he was though at age 30 doesn't mean he will be at

age 31. But look, he's still a great receiver. That doesn't mean he's going to be a great fantasy receiver. Like there are things that he does that challenge defenses that make defenses game plan for him. And that's going to still be the case. But again, it doesn't mean he's going to necessarily produce at a high enough level. Look, we loved Gardner Minshew last year for Michael Pittman, right? He targeted him, you know, enough that it was a big season for him, despite some, most people, myself included, thinking that Pittman was going to stink coming into the year, you know, based on where he was ranked. I think that Minshew will be good for Adams. I think that O'Connell will be good for Adams. Those guys aren't going to make him great.

I mean, they're not great quarterbacks for a reason. So there's a little bit of a cap ceiling there. And then again, if the targets don't crater, but if he loses 20, 30 targets off the top, that's nerve wracking for me. Oh, yeah. That'd be bad. I've only got one more thing.

No more Drake London negativity after this. I don't think it's fair to say there's not downside to Drake London. There's plenty of downside. Yeah, he's basically never finished better than a low-end wide receiver three, and he's got a quarterback coming off of an Achilles. There's significant downside. Totally. And you can make the same case for. I mean, there's significant downside. Totally. And, and you can make the same case for a lobby that, you know, there's downside for him as well, you know, based on him not living up to expectations. But again, that's, you know,

if you're going to project breakout caliber players and Heath is going the opposite direction, that's what I get. You know, I mean, there's, there's different philosophies and how you view different guys and, and, you know, for, for our audience, you have to follow and believe in who you believe in, you know, for, from our perspective. So I just think And, you know, for our audience, you have to follow and believe in who you believe in, you know, from our perspective. So I just think that, you know, similar to Garrett Wilson, there's a high draft, there's a prospect that had the ability

to be a high draft pick that has the potential to be a very good, if not great player, and getting a quarterback upgrade, I think that's going to benefit him in a significant way. So I get it. He hasn't done it before, but I think this is the year that he does.

Okay. And then, Heath, would you have Nico Collins in tier three? So that's what I wanted to say this. I think this is a good time to say it because my tears are kind of out of whack with Jamie's because of the Puka Nakua and his own tier. But I've basically like in tier four, have 17 wide receivers. We've talked about this in my projections. I have 17 guys within 11 fantasy points of each other for the entire season. It's an enormous tier. And Nico Collins is in that tier. So is Drake Lennon. So is Chris Olave.

So is Devontae Adams. So is George Pickens. So is, like, there's just, there's a ton of guys in that tier from 139 fantasy point or a hundred. And let me just look it up. Exactly. I've got it right here. I'm sorry. But like that too, I said 200, I should have said 200, 242 fantasy points for the season

down to 228. Okay. Like there's 17 guys in that range and they almost everybody on this list, except for the guys who I mentioned above Waddle and Evans and Pittman that I have one tier above almost everybody else is in that same tier. And, and I don't, I don't disagree with that. I just, I tried to take it from a, uh, a round perspective, you know, so tier three for me are guys that I would take in round two, early part of round three.

Tier four were guys that I would take in round three and early part of round four. As we move on, that's kind of how I broke it up, but I don't disagree with that at all. We've said this a million times. The number two wide receiver group can go almost like wide receiver 30, if not 35. There's just so many guys in that range if you're in a three receiver league it's not a bad idea well it's a good idea to have probably three of them three three of the top 30 to 34 if you play a flex yeah yeah um all right so we'll go to tier five in a moment after we take a break on fantasy football today we'll be right. Whether in the game or in life,

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George Pickens. This is Jamie's tier, by the way. George Pickens, DK Metcalf, T. Higgins, Devante Smith, DJ Moore, Christian Kirk, Tank Dell, and Stefan Diggs. Again, it's Pickens, Metcalf, Higgins, Devante Smith, DJ Moore, Christian Kirk, Tank Dell, and Stefan Diggs. Every single one of these guys also in my mega tier, like in that same 14-point range. That's just like what Jamie was saying,

going all the way to wide receiver 30 easily. Okay. So what's the difference between tier four Adams, Evans, Iuke, Debo, Pittman and cup and tier five Pickens Metcalf Higgins, Devante, DJ Moore, Devante Smith, DJ Moore, Christian Kirk tank, Dallas, Stefan Dix. I mean, for me, it's, you know, again, some of these guys, have they done it before or will they do it again? Some of it is, you know, quarterback concerns and some of it is, you know, target crunch, you know. So if there was no Stefan Diggs, Tankdale would be significantly higher. Probably Nico Collins as well. Christian Kirk, you know, I'm hoping he's going to get back to what he was two years ago, you know, and be that, you know, lead receiver for, for Trevor Lawrence and play at that level. T Higgins and Devante Smith, we, we know what they

have been, but we also have seen the downside of it as, you know, being second receivers on their offenses. Uh, Pickens and Metcalf, I think, you know, Pickens benefits again, you know, runways open for him with, uh, with Deontay Johnson moving on and hopefully Russell Wilson plays the majority of the season, because I don't know how that'll go if it is a switch to Justin Fields, but that did benefit DJ more. So I like what Rich Rebar said, you know, that it feels like Pickens isn't getting as much love as he should. If you are in the London Wilson camp, because it's very similar situation, the third year receivers and, you know, getting something that's different and hopefully beneficial. Um, and it feels like, I think he's a little bit higher on pickings than I am, but we're, we're sort of in the same range of top 20 caliber guy. Um, that might be, you know, ranked still too low, but you know, for me, this group is a little bit more question marks. Um, you know, and again, if you are concerned about the older receivers, you know, so the, the Adams Evans and cup trio, and you want to lean younger, this is a good spot to, uh, you know, pivot to, um, DJ Moore is probably the more, most polarizing. Cause again, based on ADP, he's higher than

I have him. And I almost feel like I want to take Kirk ahead of him and even tank Dell ahead of him, just because it feels like there could just be a significant target crunch for him in Chicago. Yeah. By the way, just a couple of things. things these are wide receivers 20 through 27 for jamie and also when he's giving rounds it's 12 team leagues 12 team leagues and typically pprs what we're talking about probably the same in half ppr but not non-bbr i'll tell you that uh so heath any thoughts on this group of pickens metccalf, Higgins, Devante Smith, DJ Moore, Christian Kirk, Tank Dell, Stefan Diggs? Not really. I think the nice thing even about this round, I was thinking,

I bet Thomas is really happy that it was Jamie's tears and not mine because building a graphic with 17 wide receivers in the same tier would have been an absolute nightmare. No, I think I've said enough about George Pickens and how much I like him. I've got him ranked ahead of Drake London. So that's a two tier difference. Again, decide who you want to go with and draft that way. Um, I, I think Dell and digs in the same tier and back to back like that.

Like I have them in the same tier and very close, um, is interesting because I'm a lot more excited to draft tank Dell than I am still on days. But I do have them projected pretty similarly. And I don't really know what to make of the Bears situation. I'm terrified. I'm not drafting DJ Moore at his ADP. I know that. So two guys in this tier that were in probably tier three last year,

which is now London, Olave, Waddle, Nico Collins, guys that were, I don't know, maybe even between three and four, right? Like they were probably not second round picks, but early third round picks last year were Higgins and Devante Smith. And Diggs. Yeah, I think the answer, well, Diggs was like a tier one, two guy last year, right?

But we know why Diggs is down here. Why are Higgins and Smith, I'm not disagreeing, but why are Higgins and Smith a full round lower, if not like a round and a half than they were last year for you, Jamie? Higgins is one that I struggle with, you know, just because I'm hopeful and excited that he is going to have a big season based on his contract scenario, that he is going to go out and prove that he deserves a big deal. He's going to get paid no matter what, but it's a matter of, is he getting the mega deal or is he going to get,

you know, more of a second Cal second tier caliber type of contract if he struggles with injuries again, cause he's still clearly talented, but if he goes through another year of, of being banged up and not producing at a high level and clearly being the second fiddle in this offense, then he's not going to get paid what he wants. But if he goes out and plays like he's capable of playing and, you know, proves that he's, you know, a one a, if not a one and, and gets that type of season, then clearly he's going to shatter this. And so it's a matter of, you know, where your risk is within. Plus you still have to factor in Joe Burrow. I mean, look, he's, he's one of the best quarterbacks. He referenced the ESPN list. They have him ranked number two, you know, the executive that's pretty telling, you know, given the fact that he's missed so much time, but he's missed so much, a lot of time. And so, you know,

if he, if he does go down again, can who, uh, Jake Browning, you know, support both of those receivers at a high enough level. So you have to bake that into it a little bit. But I have no problem taking him around four. This is the range of where I'm drafting him. So going back to Heath's point, and again, I agree, there's just so many guys in this tier that – and you're going to see it. Like, you know, you're watching this on July 17th. You may go to my rankings.

I'm sure Heath will probably be in the same boat and Dave as well. July 24th, August 1st, this whole group may be flipped, you know, in some capacity, you know, Heath may adjust his projections and, you know, three guys move ahead of the other three guys. You know, that's just, I think how the nature of this wide receiver tier, these tiers are going to go just because there's so many good players in so many good opportunities. It's just a matter, I think, of personal preference. Okay. So let's go. I've already talked about like within this tier is probably where my projections will change the most, because if I have a guy at wide receiver 29, and this happened

earlier in the year, I think it was with Higgins and I changed his target rate 1%, he might move to wide receiver 14, which is basically where I have Higgins now. So yeah, any little small change in the projections makes a big difference in this range of wide receivers. So let's talk about tier six for Jamie. These are wide receivers 28 through 33, Chris Godwin, Malik neighbors, Zay flowers. And we said it on a previous show, I think last week, and Flowers, much lower in our consensus rankings in this tier show than they are in average draft position where they're being drafted as basically wide receivers 23 and 24, but here they're right around 30th.

So it's Godwin, Neighbors, Flowers, Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, and Terry McLaurin. Godwin, Neighbors, Flowers, Amari Cooper, Ridley, McLaurin. Heath, are all six of these guys? Well, I know Neighbors isn't. How many of these guys are in your big glut of 17 receivers? Godwin, Cooper, and Ridley are the three. And Flowers and McLaurin are at the very top of my next tier. So not far off at all. Neighbors is the only one that I think I'm significantly lower or higher on because Ridley and Cooper and Godwin

are pretty much towards the end of that mega tier. I think Cooper is probably the most difficult because age-wise, you get a little bit concerned. Browns-wise, you get a little bit concerned.

But if Deshaun Watson is right and plays 17 games, Amari Cooper might be a top 15 wide receiver. What if you had... How comfortable are you with these guys as your number two receiver? Or maybe you had two of them and they were your number two and three receivers. Godwin, Neighbors, Flowers, Cooper, Ridley, McLaurin. I think if you did that, you either had to go quarterback tight end or two running

backs early you know so you know these are guys that the way we draft that are going to be at the earliest rounds five around six based on how adp is telling you you know neighbors and flowers around four picks you know so it just depends on where you're looking but i think if you're getting these guys in round five around six uh or in the case of Godwin, you know, sometimes he slips into round seven, or I guess really, you know, a few of these guys in tier six, you better hope that you hit those two running backs, you know, especially in a three receiver league. And my guess is you probably got two good ones based on our rankings,

you know, so I think you should be pretty comfortable with it, but hopefully your one is a tier one or high-end tier two guy. Yeah, that would have to be one of those situations where I took two running backs in the first three picks and an elite quarterback in tight end, I think, because I'm not going to feel great about having these guys in my two and my three. Okay, I'll give you some scenarios. Then you take Brees Hall in round one,

Marvin Harrison in round two, Travis Kelsey in round three, Lamar Jackson in round four. And then round five, you take another running back or, you know what? No, let's take, let's take a running back in round four. let's take a running back in round 4

let's take Joe Mixon in round 4 and then in round 5 you take your quarterback let's say you take Burrow there so now you've got Burrow Brees Hall, Joe Mixon, Travis Kelsey and Marvin Harrison your next two picks are Amari Cooper

and Calvin Ridley. How do you feel about that? I don't love it. I don't either. If you give me Godwin and Ridley, I like it better. Okay. I wouldn't

Yeah. The thing is, I'm not going to take Mixon there, and I'm certainly not taking Joe Burrow in round five. So, like, I think I just don't like the players. Fair, right. I was trying to use some ADP. I was just, like, kind of scanning through ADP. Yeah, it's not, look, it's not a horrible start, you know,

because, again, I think it's what you do after this as well. You know, so if you're saying, okay, now I feel like I got to get a better flex or a better, you know, cover myself just in case mixing is not great. Then it feels like you're probably chasing the wrong position because you shouldn't have taken a running back that early anyway. But I think if you start to just, you know, line up some of these receivers that are coming up still that have plenty of upside, then you might be able to sort of still feel better about what your, your overall build is.

But it just feels like that, that feels like a draft that didn't have a plan at, you know, once you started, like it was, I'm just taking best player available all the way through. Oh, so we've got to tier seven here. We're going to start approaching the round seven through nine range. And I, you know, I think I mentioned this last week there. It's not a bad range. Uh, you get a lot of top 24 receivers here. You get like three-ish top 12 receivers most years from this range. Last year, Brandon Ayuk, Mike Evans,

Michael Pittman, Jordan Addison, they were all drafted around seven through nine. So here's tier seven. Jaden Reed for Jamie. Jaden Reed, Ladd McConkie, Marquise Brown, Deontay Johnson, Christian Watson, Rasheed Rice, and DeAndre Hopkins. So we have two chiefs.

We have two Packers. We have Jaden Reed, Ladd McConkie, Marquise Brown, Deontay Johnson, Christian Watson, Rasheed Rice, and DeAndre Hopkins. Jamie, how would you define tier seven? Tier seven is a group of receivers that can be difference makers or guys that you might consider cutting at some point based on how things go. I don't think you're cutting any of these guys, but you may be very frustrated over the group. And Heath, what do you think?

Yeah. Every single one of these guys is in the same tier for me with mclaurin and flowers right behind the mega tier so it's kind of another mega tier i think 10 or 11 guys um i i could talk myself into a top 12 season from almost every one of them it's a long shot it's not like but it's not it's not hard for like which which one tell me which one you just can't see that top 12 season from i i think i can't oh no i don't think i can't i don't if you said like top almost top 18 then for sure i cannot see lad mcconkey being a top 12 receiver okay he's the one i agree i would. Actually, I don't think I can see it for almost any of them,

assuming everyone on every team stays healthy. I don't see Jaden Reed or Christian Watson being top 12. Well, I don't think it's very fair to expect both Jaden Reed and Christian. That's less likely than one of them being hurt. What do you mean, both staying healthy? Okay, well, playing that game, then it's a little bit different. But if Reid and Watson stay healthy,

then I don't see either one being a top 12 guy. I don't see it from Hopkins. I don't see it from Johnson. I certainly see it from Hopkins based on the advanced numbers from Gibbs last year. Right.

But now he's got Calvin Ridley to contend with. He's not going to dominate targets like he did and he's still got a guy who was a pretty bad quarterback last year. I don't know. Top 12? Top 12 just feels

rich. What do you think, Jamie? Break the tie. Break the tie. The only one I could see top 12 would be Watson just because maybe Marquise Brown, if there's a right suspension. Those two, I guess, would be the two that I would put in this category. Top 12 is a big

ask. We're talking about receivers that are would be the the two that i would put in this category but uh top 12 is a big ask you know i mean we're talking about receivers that are you know 33 34 through 40 um for me i'm gonna guess pretty close to consensus and so like there's a reason for that you know so it would probably take something that is just completely completely off our radar happening. You know, McConkie scoring 10 touchdowns because, you know, the volume may not be there for him. Deontay Johnson scoring 10 touchdowns. You know, Watson, I think, has 10 touchdown potential. So that's why I think he's got that opportunity.

And the same thing with Marquise Brown. But these other guys, it would be such a huge ask for them to get there. You know, Rice clearly had, was, I don't know what his pace was once he started to be, you know, the go-to receiver for, for the chiefs. So there's probably double digit touchdown potential there, but again,

you know, what they added this off season is hard for them, hard to expect that to happen. So no top 12, I don't, I don't see it, but I think, you know, the way you sort of phrased it, you know, top 18, top 20, that's within range. Uh, Rasheed Rice was the number eight wide receiver per game in full PPR number 12 per game and half PPR in his last six games when he was on pace for 159 targets, 122 catches, 1,468 yards, eight touchdowns.

That's for she writes. He was top 12 per game in both half and full PPR in his last six games. Circumstances have obviously changed for Rasheed rice. Um, now tier eight has Jordan Addison, Jackson Smith and Jigba, and Keenan Allen. And we're about 40 wide receivers deep. So Tier 8 is Addison, JSN, two talented second-year guys, and Keenan Allen. And I just want to say, Keenan Allen averaged more fantasy points per game

than Amon Ross St. Brown last year. I totally get it, but I feel like two years in a row, I can think of one really good veteran receiver that was drafted in this range because people were discounting his quarterback situation. They were really afraid of the quarterback situation, and the guy crushed it two years in a row. And that was Amari Cooper with Jacoby Reset two years ago and Mike Evans with Baker Mayfield. This is different. We don't think Caleb Williams is bad. I don't know why Keenan Allen is here,

but it is like to think about that. He averaged more points per game than Amonra St. Brown last year. And he's like wide receiver 40. So JB, give me your thoughts on tier eight, Addison, JSN and Keenan Allen. Yeah. And he, he averages the most targets per game last year as well. 11 and a half per game, you know, so can he, uh, can he do that again? My answer would be no. Um, he's 32 years old. So that's a big part of this. Uh, he's now part of the most crowded

receiving core that he's ever been in. And you're asking a rookie quarterback to support all of these guys. So can he still, you know, produce at a high level? Sure. I mean, he's, you know, been, uh, uh, one of the best route runners during his time in the league. He's going to still be the slot guy. So that should be some easy opportunities for, for Caleb Williams, but I just can't see it. If Odunze is as good a prospect as advertised and DJ Moore builds off of, or at least comes close to doing what he did, not necessarily from a production standpoint, from just from a play standpoint, you know, last year in Shane Waldron's offense. Plus again, you know, this is a guy that we'll see how he handles the environment later in the season. You know, a guy that's played his

entire collegiate and pro career so far in the state of California, now having to go to Chicago and playing those elements. And so I think it's going to be a tough adjustment for him across the board. So there'll be some good games. You probably want to trust Keenan Allen earlier in the season than later in the year. Um, but for me, I'm just out almost completely. You know, if he, if he falls in this range, I'll gladly take a chance on him, but I don't think he's going to fall in this range. I know our ADP is a little bit different than, than most. So if you're drafting on our site and he still stays, you know, in this level, in this area range in this range,

then you'll be okay with it. But I don't see it happening. Yeah. I don't wait. I feel bad about having him too low. I don't want to bump him up one tier. I think just put them with the DeAndre Hopkins right behind DeAndre Hopkins.

And it's like, yeah, that makes sense. Elite wide receivers got new competition. They're old. We're scared of them. Sure. And then I don't, Addison and JSN feel like we could just create a whole tier with them and Rome and Jamison Williams and just call it the wish tier.

Because, like, we're just wishing. And there could be big upside. Cause we think they're great. Um, throw Xavier Worthy in. David Worthy would be in there with Addison, Jason, Keenan Allen,

Roma. You're saying Roma Dunzay and Xavier Worthy would be in this. No, I'm sorry. I'm moving. I'm moving. Keenan Allen up one to put him with the Andre Hopkins. That's more aesthetically pleasing.

Sure. Yeah. And, and then we're going to put Brian Thomas and Xavier Worthy and Roma Dunzey and Jamison Williams all in the tier with, with Addison and Jason. What about Keon Coleman? Sure. I don't sure. Okay. All right. Let's so, so again, tier eight was Addison, Jason and Keenan Allen. If you were going to draft one of those three, who would it be? Today?

Yeah. JSN. I mean, Addison continues to free fall for me. I just don't understand, not to go on a tangent, but apparently he posted a picture of himself or posted a picture of him having a drink after getting a DUI a week after his teammate was killed in a accident that may have had some alcohol involved situation.

Like he just feels like, I don't know what's going on there. Like it's, it's forget about the football. It just feels like there's something at play and I hope he's okay. Yeah. All right. Tier nine,

Roma Dunzay, Cortland Sutton, Jamison Williams, and then Keon Coleman, Brian Thomas, Xavier Worthy. We've got four rookie wide receivers. Odunze, Keon Coleman, Brian Thomas, Xavier Worthy, and we've got Cortland Sutton and Jamison Williams. So, okay, that's tier nine.

And these are what? These are guys that we're starting, that we're putting on our bench. And would you say this is a high upside tier, Jamie? Odunze, Sutton, Jamison Williams, Coleman, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy? I mean, obviously that's the best way to phrase it. You know, with Sutton being the one who's done it, you know, feels as if he's going to take a step back. You know, targets should still be there for him, but it's Bo Nix targets.

And, you know, I don't know if that benefits his game. So I'm a little concerned about Slutton you know clearly if uh he can stay in the eight plus touchdown range which you know last year he scored 10 then I think he'll be thrilled about getting Cortland Slutton in this range but it just feels like there's going to be a step back for him with the way this offense is expected to operate the role that he's going to play in the quarterback that he has now. Yeah, and Sutton's the one guy that I would put up in the DeAndre Hopkins, Keon Coleman tier. But I think I've been higher most of the offseason on him, and it is a scary situation.

It just seems like he's the clear number one wide receiver there. Just how much real upside is there? I would pretty much bet he's going to finish somewhere between wide receiver 30 and 42. Okay, so that's tier nine, has four rookies, Adunze, Coleman, Thomas, Worthy, Sutton, and Jamison Williams

are the two veterans in there. Tier 10 is five veteran receivers. I think once you're in your second year, you're a veteran, but these guys are all, I think, third year or later. Rashid Shahid, Josh Palmer,

Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and Romeo Dobbs. Rashid Shahid, Josh Palmer, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and Romeo Dobbs. Every one in this tier has at least one S in their first or last name. Did notice that. Probably applies to a lot of players, but it doesn't apply to Roma Dunze,

Keon Coleman, or Xavier Worthy. But again, I'll read it one last time. Tier 10, Rashid Shahid, Josh Palmer, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, and Romeo Dobbs. Does this tier have less upside than the rookie tier, basically, before it? No, I don't think so. I try to make sure I leave almost every draft I've done and that's best ball, uh, fishbowl magazine drafts. Uh, the ones that we've done as mocks

with one of Shahid Palmer or Shakir. Um, I, I still slightly favor Shakira over Samuel, as you see, uh, that may change, you know, depending on how things go in camp. But Shaquille is the only receiver on this team that has caught a pass from Josh Allen. And I like the way that he finished the year last year when Gabe Davis was out. So I think he's going to have a good third year season. Palmer may be better than McConkie. You know, I mean, we've said this, we've heard this, you know, Daniel Popper of the Athletic, you know, reporting that he's going to have a big opportunity and big role. And Shahid for now is locked into, you know, the number two

receiving role for the saints. And he was really starting to play a lot better before he got hurt in the middle of the season. And I don't think ever really fully recovered to that. So these three guys continue to be, I'll rephrase it. The two guys at the top of the tier continue to be two of the biggest risers for me, um, in my rankings, you know, so they started when you'll see our magazine come out. I think, I think she, he might be in my top 60 Palmer was just outside of it. You know, they're creeping towards the forties at this point for me. Um, they're, they're both, I think that's 50 and 51. Uh, so yes, I, I think they do have as much upside as the rookies, not necessarily from a ceiling perspective, but I think, you know, based on how the stats will go 900 yards for those

type of guys, I think that's where Shaheed and Palmer can end up, you know, uh, six or seven touchdowns. I think that's realistic. And again, you know, I think in the case of Palmer, for example, he could be the best receiver on his team. I know we're expecting a little volume and all those things, but, um, wouldn't be surprising if Palmer is the go-to guy for Justin Herbert, again, similar to the, the, the, the Buffalo situation, you know, while, while Quentin Johnston caught a few passes from Justin Herbert, Palmer is the most seasoned receiver there. With her, I think Palmer five games over the last two years without Keenan, without Williams has been about 13 and a half PPR fantasy points per game.

I've got Ladd-McConkie at the very end of Tier 6, and again my tiers are a lot bigger. And then Josh Palmer, the very top player in Tier 7. There is a tier break between them because McConkie's a rookie and he's more talented, has better predigree, more upside. But

I would expect at least the first half of the year you should bet on Josh Palmer leading the team in targets and being the best fantasy wide receiver. It's just whether McConkie can develop to the point to where he takes over in the second half. I did not have that many points per game for Josh Palmer because I just

unfortunately for everyone, I've been asked to write sleepers, breakouts, and busts this week, and I put Josh Palmer in my sleepers column. I did too. Yeah, and yeah, I i think we're gonna have the same column i even shouted you out in my sleepers column because like i put pat fryer muth in there and the last thing i wrote was like also heath cummings wrote the same thing so like i just copied and pasted from his article i actually wrote mine before i read yours and i was like like, oh, wow, this is very similar. Because I had a feeling you had prior reason there.

But anyway, yeah, I mean, like, even if Palmer doesn't do better than he did, like, he still, based on what he did without either Keenan Allen or Mike Williams or both the last two years, he'd be worth being the 50th wide receiver off the board. If he does better, he'll crush that ADP. So, all right, we have two more tiers.

We have tiers 11 and 12. So let's go to tier 11. Jahan Dotson, Tyler Lockett, Dontavian Wicks, Xavier Leguette, Jacoby Myers, and Mike Williams. I don't really want to do this anymore. John Dotson, I've just lost my steam. I can't get excited about these guys.

This is the make me cry. Somebody just asked in the chat, have you ever cried over a sporting event? And I know the answer for you, Adam, is yes. I was just wondering, how long has it been? Three months? Four months? It's about a year and a half. Year and a half.

But it was happy tears. Tier 11 makes me want to cry just because John Dotson was one of my favorite breakout picks last year. And now he's a tier 11 wide receiver and I can't even argue about it. And Tyler Lockett and Mike Williams have been two of my favorite veterans to varying success. I, I think there's a good chance that people are very upset at Tyler Lockett this season

because he's still earning seven to eight targets a game and holding back DK and Jason. So you mentioned Dotson, Lockett and Mike Williams. The other three are Dontavian Wicks, Xavier Leggett and Jacoby Myers, who was great the first six games of 2023 and then terrible the last 10 games that more or less coincided with Jimmy Garoppolo being benched. Anything to add on Tier 11, Jamie? I mean, these are guys that really have limited upside unless I think something happens.

You know, Lockett still, targets were there last year. So it's hard to overlook what he still can do. But, you know, again, 32 years old. D overlook what he still can do but you know again 32 years old um Dotson is a guy that you know I mentioned the other two guys that are rising for me in terms of uh Shahid and Palmer he's a guy that's been falling you know I I do like the opportunity for him and I do think that there's um upside with Jaden Daniels you know because we don't know who he's going to favor and you look, clearly Heath was very high on dots. I think a lot of people were.

He still has a seven-touchdown rookie season that was broken up by several hamstring injuries. So will Kingsbury coming in and a new quarterback coming in sort of change his future? And there's still a lot to like there. So he's not a bad late-round flyer. But you can sort of, I think, mix and match these two tiers and say, you know, who do you think has the most upside based on one of your last picks?

And, you know, Douglas could be the best receiver for the Patriots. Quentin Johnson, if you're still in that camp, you know, could, you know, bounce back in year two. I know yesterday there were, or recently at least, there was a report from the Giants that Wanda Robinson is going to really benefit with league neighbors being there and just, you know, giving him easy targets from Daniel Jones could see that happening, you know, so you can, you know, look at a lot of these players in both these tiers and say, this receiver, receiver X receiver blank is going to be the one that helps me the most with

my last round pick, but also somebody that I'm probably cutting if he doesn't get off to a good start. Yeah. Tier 12 is Demario Douglas, Josh Downs, Roman Wilson, Troy Franklin, Jerry Judy, Adam Thielen, Quinton Johnston, Gabe Davis, Wandale Robinson, Brandon Cooks, Rashad Bateman, and Jalen Polk. Cannot read a single article about the Ravens. It could be about like the beginning of the Ravens. It could be about the beginning of the franchise, or it could be about the stadium or something, or the fans, the food at the tailgate, and it'll mention Rashad Bateman. It's just this guy is getting so much off-season buzz.

So tier 12, again, Demario Douglas, Josh Downs, Roman Wilson, Troy Franklin, Jerry Judy, Adam Thielen, Quentin Johnston, Gabe Davis, Wanda Robinson, Brandon Cooks, Rashad Bateman, Jalen Polk. Are we even looking for upside at this point? Are we just looking for, Hey, who could get me maybe 10 fantasy points per game in PPR? I would, I would hope for most of these guys, you're looking for upside. I think, you know, the, the latter part of that is like, you know, drafting Adam Thielen or drafting Gabe Davis, you know, and, and just hoping that Thielen is still the guy that, you know, Bryce Young leans on despite the additions of Johnson and Leggett,

that Davis could be the one that benefits more so than Brian Thomas. But as you see, most of these guys are on the younger side, you know, entering their first or second years. And it's funny you mentioned Bateman because Williams is the last guy and we rank 60 receivers. So Williams is number 60 for me. And I was like, well, I like Douglas. I'll put him on the list. I like downs. I'll put them on the list.

Wilson and Franklin are kind of like those third, fourth, fifth tier rookie receivers that I think have great opportunities. I mean, you know, Wilson should be the second best receiver, third best option behind Pickens and Frymouth. And Franklin could be the go-to guy for Bo Nix. I mean, they have a college connection coming into the NFL. But it was, as I keep looking at it, I'm like, I got to put Quentin Johnston here because I know Adam has a little bit of hope for him.

And I got to put Rashad Bateman on there. Exactly what you said. Just feel like anytime you see anything about the Ravens, it's got Rashad Bateman's name in it. So it's like I just kept going and going and going until I got to that there yeah I think that I think in tier 12 we should replace Demario Douglas and he is my favorite by far I love him I might even put him a tier higher but just with whoever your favorite Patriots wide receiver is right and then it's Troy Franklin or Marvin Mims you choose it's like this is your choose your own adventure tier yep um but yeah it's this is the very this i think like this is

probably the range of the draft where you just want to be drafting some backup running back that could luck his way into 15 touches by week two or three um because somebody put it in the chat like this is definitely the perform or drop tier um these guys could all be dropped by the time five weeks in. But there's, other than Thielen, who's obviously got the best pedigree by far, I think the guy that, I think the best receiver in this group is probably Jerry Judy.

I knew it. I knew that was coming. I mean, look, he's in tier 12 for a reason, but I haven't completely lost faith in him. If you're into advanced metrics, then you would probably think there's still something to be unlocked in Jerry Judy. And he's also actually,

his 2022 season was actually pretty good. He's another guy who left three games, I believe, very early with injuries. When he was healthy, he basically averaged like 15 PPR fantasy points per game. That's why I liked him so much last year. Then he got hurt in preseason and just had a terrible year on a terrible team.

So, Judy. Well, first off, just to clarify, Brandon Cook's career is better than Adam Thielen's. Yeah, much. Yeah, Cook. I was going to go to Cook's too. Brandon Cook's career better than Thielen's? No, better than Judy.

Judy for sure. Is it better than Thielen's though? I don't know. Yes. I don't know about that. That's a tough one. The highs have been higher for Thielen, haven't they? Brandon Cook versus Adam Thielen?

Cumulative stats, probably. But what about the best seasons? I feel like Thielen's had the better best seasons. That's probably true. His best season is probably better than Cook's best season. But from a career standpoint, I think Cook his career is better i mean um i will say this there there is sort of a theme with at least three of these guys here as first round flops in judy johnston and bateman and so you hope that one of them can you things around, but most likely not.

Who do you think has more career receiving yards, Cooks or Dillon? So we're definitely – Jamie won the Cooks versus Dillon. It's not close. Dillon's played four more games. Cooks has 50 more catches, 1,600 more yards. Dillon does have two more touchdowns. Hey, there you go. Cooks has 170 more touchdowns. Hey, there you go. Yeah. Cooks has 170 more fantasy

points. Based on career expectations, Adam Thielen has well outperformed what anybody thought of him. And kudos to our colleague Rick Spielman for finding him, even though he was in his backyard, but finding him. But you wonder what Cooks would have been if he stayed on one team for his

entire career. Yeah. Okay. That's it for today's show. Wide receiver tears. We're going to do it again. You know, I've never done this before, but this is the first time you've asked me to do tears.

I think Dave usually does it for our show. I'm going to write tears for the first time ever. So it'll, it'll be on the site next week for anybody that's been following us. The Marley and me week. And I've, I've been doing the marley and me week and i've uh i've been doing the position previews this week and there is a uh a link to my tears in those as well so we've got lots of tears lots of tears this year nice very sad stuff all right we got fft express coming

up we'll we'll do this conversation again but we'll frame it a little bit differently like we did at the running backs yesterday and And we'll see you there. Bye, everyone.