Fantasy Football Today - WR Tiers! Best Ways to Approach the Position (07/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 19, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Vote for Fantasy Football Today for "Best Male-Hosted Podcast" and "Best Sports Podcast" on PodcastAwards.com Early average draft position data suggests Fantasy managers are changing the way they select running backs and wide receivers. More WRs could be taken in the first two rounds, so do you need to get in on that action? We explore what a RB/RB start might mean for your WRs. We also touch on some news items (12:30) on Tank Bigsby, J.K. Dobbins and the Saints backfield ... Getting into Jamey's WR tiers beginning with Tier 1 (18:30) which actually includes four stud WRs. Tier 2 (21:00) is also loaded with talent, but do Garrett Wilson and Amon-Ra St. Brown belong in there? Tier 3 (28:40) might be your last chance to feel great about your #1 WR ... Moving on to Tier 4 (34:35), we've got guys like Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen and Calvin Ridley. Then Tier 5 (42:00) starts to feel a little riskier though guys like D.K. Metcalf and D.J. Moore have big upside. Tier 6 (46:24) and Tier 7 (53:00) have a lot in common. Tier 8 (55:50) and Tier 9 (1:04:00) may have some players you want to avoid but also enough players you should be excited about drafting including Kadarius Toney and Treylon Burks ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Wednesday morning, what's up, everybody? Welcome to Fantasy Football Today. You know, we have people waiting for us in our YouTube room, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday, and they're guessing who's going to be on the show. Only a couple people are guessing right now. Ben says, what's the lineup going to be?

Matt says, I'm going to guess Azor, Dave, and a guest appearance by a baked burger. And then Ben says, Azor, Jamie, and Dave Day. Well, it's a Dan Schneier Day. He's joining me and Jamie today. Dan, you ready to talk about wide receiver tiers? I am, and I'm also ready to announce to the world that's listening today, and you, that I never really fully gave you your due

for this baked burger take that you brought to Twitter. What was that, a couple weeks ago? July 4th. It's a horrific take. Just putting burgers in an oven. I just can't even imagine a worse way to eat a burger. And yet, according to you, it was great. I think you did actually roast me for that already, but thank you for doing it again. So here's a little theme for this year that's worth watching. So I always use, you know, when I go back in time and I look at previous years' ADP, I use fantasyfootballcalculator.com.

It's pretty good. It's not great, I think, right now for the current season, but for previous years, I think it makes a lot of sense. It's like, oh, this looks like normal ADP. So over the past five years, there have been 14 to 15 running backs taken in the first two rounds. In four of those years,

one year it was 12, but 12 to 15 every year and usually 14 to 15. Three straight years, 14 to 15 running backs in the first two rounds. Here are the wide receivers drafted in the first two rounds

over the last five years according to Fantasy Football Calculator. This is PPR. Non-PPR, probably even more skewed, but PPR. 9, 10, 6, 7, 8. I want to just look at the last three years. You're talking 14 to 15 running backs, 6 to 8 wide receivers in the first two rounds.

Jamie, I looked at a few sources this morning. NFC, DraftSharks, FantasyData.com. NFC is very averse to drafting running backs, I guess, in the first two rounds. But on DraftSharks and FantasyData, 10 running backs, 11 wide receivers in the first 24 picks. And then you've got Kelsey and two quarterbacks, I guess. But 10 running backs, 11 wide receivers.

Much more even than, you know, it's kind of almost like a landslide of running backs winning. It's really early. It's July 19th. But do you think that's going to hold up a more balanced running back versus wide receiver rather than running backs clearly winning

in the first two rounds in terms of ADP? I'm looking at the draft we did yesterday. I just counted 11 wide receivers went in the first two rounds and one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine running backs went in the second round. So very much on par. Nine running backs went in the first two rounds. First two rounds and 11 wide receivers went in the first two rounds. First two rounds. And 11 wide receivers went in the first two rounds as well with three quarterbacks and one tight end. So I think that's probably something we're going to see a lot of. Yes.

Somewhat of an even split. I'm really more curious, though, about the first round as opposed to the second round because that's, I think, where we're going to see more wide receivers because it's how many running backs. We talked about this yesterday. How many running backs are really going to go in the first round? And again, NFC is going to be very different than I think what a lot of drafts actually are.

But I think the first round running back locks are going to be McCaffrey, Eckler, Bijan, for now Taylor, and maybe Barkley. And that's it. And then the rest, I think, are going to, and maybe Barkley. And that's it. And then the rest I think are going to be wide receivers and Kelsey. I feel like I've seen Taylor even slipping into the early second round. Yeah. But I think we'll end up happening with the holdout.

With Barkley holding out in camp, you'll see Taylor move ahead of him. Yeah. And it's going to kind of put a lot of, it's going to change the perspective on a lot of things because, you know, if you're thinking usually, well, round three is a good round for wide receivers or four or five. It's not.

It may not be, and it's deeper into the wide receiver pool. That's the point, right? It's deeper into the wide receiver pool this year. I think we're going to see more receivers in that first, second round range as we get through draft season. The reason I say this is a conversation I had with Heath on the dynasty podcast yesterday.

We think that we might've gotten to a point where we've pushed the dead zone narrative so far that now that these, these running backs that we used to take in round one and they used to be pushed up into round two, borderline round two, round three are now going in that three through five range. And they're actually value plays. And a lot of spots, these running backs that I'm getting in round three, four, five, especially four and five

are good value. And because of that, it's making me every time I do the, yesterday we had a PPR mock. I did a running back, running back build to start. I regretted it immediately because when I got to rounds three, four, five, there was a, I wanted a running back over receiver every single time. And I'm like, I don't want a third running back before I get my second receiver. I don't want a fourth running back before I get my third, you know, whatever it may be. So I looked at it like, I can't do that ever again. I can't go running back, running back again. I think you recovered well. It was okay.

Yeah. So the story will be up on the site. And this is actually the premise of what I wrote about was because you did it. I did it. And Chris Towers did it. We all started running back, running back, which is not something I think you're going to see, you know, from that many managers even anymore, you know, three managers going running back, running back. And I think the way that you recovered is different than the way Chris and I did. And I say

recovered, you know, like as if it's a problem, but you know, like we, you know, were able to get receivers or try to chase receivers because you took a receiver in the third round. Right. Chris and I did not. I took Mark Andrews.ris took lamar jackson you know so we even took it a step further i took it even a step further than that because i took aaron jones in round four so um i didn't think i was reaching a little bit i felt like i was reaching a bit with ridley in round three um yes and no i i think again you know this is where i think we're going to start to see the shift and this is i think what you stabbed with running backs. And now we're starting to see it with wide receivers is that when you got to the third round, you didn't have a second running

back. You're like, Oh my God, I have to take a running back here. And I think we're seeing it even with second wide receivers. Cause people like to have a heavy wide receiver building PPR, but also if you're taking your first guy. So we had this conversation yesterday that round three, we're going to see a handful of wide receivers. You know, the, the, the top end guys, I think the beginning of round three, which we'll get into, you know, Devontae Smith and T. Higgins. And, you know, I put Chris Olave in that group, but he probably belongs in the second group.

But still, I think Olave is, you know, the guy that sort of is the bridge. You know, we talk about this a lot. You know, who's the guy that goes from one group to the next or one team to the next? I think Olave is that guy for this group. But then it's that next group of guys, which is going to be Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen in PPR, maybe still DK Metcalf,

maybe still Devo Samuel, maybe Amari Cooper sneaks into that group, you know, depending on how it goes. But that's the group where it feels kind of icky, you know, and that's where it's like, okay, do I want to really take these guys in this spot? And I think in your case, because you went running back, running back,

it's fine. You have to sort of reach a little bit to get one of these guys that could still be top 12. And I think those guys are all in that category. It's when you're running back, running back, it's fine. You have to sort of reach a little bit to get one of these guys that could still be top 12, and I think those guys are all in that category. It's when you're not necessarily – you know, it's when you're taking them as your second receiver because you feel like, oh, I have to have two receivers. That's where I feel like there's a little bit of a reach. Like, why are you doing that when you don't necessarily have to?

And in the case of people that like to go zero RB or modified zero RB and they go receiver, receiver, receiver there, it's great to have that guy as your third, but again, it feels like you're just drafting them a little bit too soon, which I think is where the problem sort of lies. Okay. Well, we'll get into the tiers, and I think one thing we're making very clear this year,

on yesterday's show, we hammered it. Dan talked about it. He didn't even listen to yesterday's show because he's selfish, but he talked about it already today. Running back in the middle rounds, four through six, basically. Not bad this year. Cause he's selfish, but he talked about it already today, running back, you know, in the middle rounds, four through six, basically not bad this year. Pretty, you know, different, just, it looks different this year. It feels different this year.

Now I'm going to, I think we got to spend a lot of time between now, July 19th and early August, when we really get into it, examining that and saying, is it really different? Because how many times did we fall for, let's say, the mid-round tight end trap? And year after year, oh, no, this time these guys are going to be good. And it took us maybe three years of failure before we realized, okay, the mid-round tight ends, we get excited about them every year, and most of them just don't come through. So I wonder if we're setting ourselves up for a little bit of a trap.

I think the difference, though, with that is you're talking about usually three guys. Yeah. But we've liked mid-round running backs in the past, too. And then, you know, maybe it's just— Not a group like this, though. This is different. It feels that way. I hope.

It feels different. I don't know if it is. It definitely feels different. It's more robust. And, again, we're usually with these mid-round running backs, we're talking about guys that were typically starting to be ranked, let's say, as high as maybe 17, 18. You're getting guys that are ranked, you know,

depending on whatever rank list you look at, 12. Yeah. Well, in what round are you talking about? Four? I don't think you're getting RB12 in round four. I have Jameer Gibbs ranked 12th. Aaron Jones is in that range. Najee Harris is in that range.

So they're starting to go mid-round three maybe. Okay, you're extending it a little bit. J.K. Dobbins, I mean, again, maybe I have these guys ranked too high. Ken Walker, some people have him ranked a little higher. Obviously, Brees Hall, depending on where he's being ranked. That's where these range of guys are going to go. And I think that's where we're going. Okay, so maybe it's not 12.

Maybe it's 14. No, it's the tier but it's the tier. It's the tier that includes our, I'll tell you what the different biggest difference for me is so far drafting with these rounds, three through five backs that Jamie's referring to. I actually feel for the first time when I'm taking guys like Jameer Gibbs and Brees hall and JK Dobbins,

like these guys could actually be league winner type picks for me versus the receivers at the exact same time that I don't feel like that. And that's never been the case for me. It's always been the opposite. It's always been, I'm never taking this running back here. We're just pushing him up because he has touches or pushing up because of this and that. And I don't really see too much of a clear path other than situation. But now I'm like, talent is meeting situation with Brees Hall, Jameer Gibbs, JK Dobbins versus receiver where I'm like, yeah, he's a talented option, but he doesn't even have a great situation. Like there's not, I don't even see the target path here so that's what's really surprised me the most like when we were talking about guys like you know miles gaskin and mike

davis and stuff it's such a different story to me than breeze hall and jk dobbins types all right guys let's uh move on here we'll get into the wide receiver tiers in a bit we have a few news items all of them about running backs. Not very appropriate for today's show. Let me tell you first about the Draftathon. It's already well underway. We'll continue through the end of August. It's our charitable drive that we do every year to raise money

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Fantasy Football Today on podcastawards.com. On to the news and notes. So Kendri Miller, rookie running back for the New Orleans Saints. He's on the pup list. He's recovering from a torn meniscus. He can be taken off of that at any point during training camp. If you're on the pup list to start the season, you're going to miss some time. But a lot of guys are going to start the year on the pup list.

But, Jamie, it is kind of interesting. We haven't talked much about it. If Kendrick Miller is on the pup list for a while, he's a rookie, maybe that means Jamal Williams is a great zero RB target. What do you think? Well, especially when we get the news about Alvin Kamara, to whatever extent it is. No suspension, two games, four games, six games. It's going to depend

when you're drafting. Obviously, Scott Fishbowl leagues and best ball leagues and any type of moves you may be looking at in dynasty or long-term keeper leagues to maybe trade for one of those guys after your rookie draft. I think this is a big boost potentially for Jamal Williams because you know he's going to get an opportunity regardless of Kamara's situation

and regardless of Miller's situation. If both are not there to start the season, yeah, he's a starter week one, for sure. Clifton Brown of BaltimoreRavens.com said, the Ravens are going to try to get J.K. Dobbins more involved in the passing game. And that's cool. And then I wish I could remember, I've been trying to find it, where I saw it,

that Tank Bigsby, Jaguar's running back, that they've been impressed with his work in the passing game. Not only have they been impressed with his work in the passing game. Not only have impressed his work in the past game, did you see the, the note from, uh, the Jaguars running max coach?

Uh, no. So it was a pretty cool, uh, coach speak. He, he, I don't have it exactly in front of me,

but he basically said, this is the exact guy we're bringing in. He feels, it feels like exactly what we need to fit the offense. He said, this was one of those rare times where I was going over the tape and I had to reverse, reverse, reverse and rewatch the plays over and over and over with Bigsby.

And I was like, yes, that's the guy. Put two stars on him. So I thought that was interesting. Did you say the Jaguars running backs coach? How dare you disrespect Bernie Parmelee? You don't know his name? Hey, Bernie Parmelee. That was a blast from the past.

Isaiah Pacheco also has a hand injury and might start training camp on the pup list. But back to the Jaguars. Very sneaky for Clyde Eberthiller. I agree with that. And I just snagged him like 15th round in Scott Fishbowl. I just want to say, I want to spend a little more time with the Jaguars here

because, you know, is this a threat to Travis Etienne? In the same article, they said that Travis Etienne will still be the lead back. I know he'll be the lead back, but to what degree? I mean, is he? I think, look, Dan's been talking about this for, you know, most of the offseason. They needed to bring in somebody to help Travis Etienne, to whatever degree it was, you know, or whatever degree it will be, you know, whether it's just giving, you know, a 5% snap decrease

or 10% or 20%. You know, I don't think they want to run him into the ground because they've already seen him suffer a foot injury in his rookie campaign. He was a little bit banged up last year in the middle of the season that Baltimore game he had to leave. And so what were they going to do to supplement him? And this is a guy, you know, I happen to know the guy who trained him, you know, that Bigsby has a huge ceiling in front of him for these mid round running backs, you know,

based on NFL draft capital. And so it's a great landing spot. So when we talk about lottery tickets, this is the perfect lottery ticket that you want to draft because he will get some opportunities and we'll see how they work these guys in together. First off, look, he has to beat out Dearness Johnson and, um, Snoop Conner and the other guys that are there. So that's a big part of it also. But from a talent perspective, he should. And then it's, okay, if ETN does miss any time, we say this year after year, who's a league-winning type of guy? This is going to be a great offense.

And so you want to have backups on great offenses. Elijah Mitchell, Jerome Ford, Jalen Warren I still think qualifies for this. Tank Bigsby qualifies for this. These are guys that you just put on your bench, and if they hit, Jerome Ford, Jalen Warren, I still think qualifies for this. Tank Bigsby qualifies for this. These are guys that you just put on your bench, and if they hit, my gosh, you could win your league. You could flip your league on its head because of where you draft these guys. So put him in the back of your mind and take him with a late-run pick and then just go back to Clyde Edwards-Alaire.

Similar situation. This was a guy that averaged his first four games last year, 18-plus PPR points per game. This is a great situation we know it's not going to be uh kareem hunt in in his you know tenure with the chiefs it's not going to be jamal charles they're going to mix and match guys jerk mckinnon is going to have opportunities but first and second down rushing chances are not going to jerk mckinnon if isaiah pacheco is not there they're going to cloud edwards allaire and so while the narrative is

yes they wasted the pick and he should not have gotten his fifth-year option picked up, those things are all true. But fantasy-wise, he could still have a very big impact on this Chiefs offense and for fantasy managers if he starts any games. Okay, we're going to take a break here. When we come back, Jamie gives his wide receiver tears

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Oh. Yeah, I know, right? What do you disagree with? Oh, you'll see. Can we do tier one first? All right. It's called a teaser. You don't ask me to follow up on the teaser.

You let me tease. You're right. You're right. That was a terrible one. All right. Wide receiver tier number one. It's not three. It's four.

Jamie, who's in tier one? Tier one is Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Cooper Cup, and Tyreek Hill. Yeah, so it's the three that you'd expect and then Tyreek Hill. You want to expand on why you included Tyreek Hill there? Well, I mean, first off, he's guaranteeing 2,000 yards, and that's never gone wrong. That's true. So I just think you look at what his body of work has been

and what he did last year with a healthy Tua Tungabailoa and still very productive even when Tua was not there. He's the one guy that sort of survived the backups there, unlike Jalen Waddell. I mean, you see it. You see it if you're watching the screen on YouTube. Four guys that averaged over 20 PPR points per game. I just think his role

in this offense, the amount of targets he will get, what Tua's expected to play like this year, again, if he stays healthy, but I also think Mike White is a better backup than what they had a year ago, mostly because Teddy Bridgewater was hurt. But I think these are the four guys that are going to be drafted in the first round. They should be drafted

in probably their first eight picks. I've seen several drafts, to some degree a little surprised, to some degree I understand it, where Tyree Kill has gone ahead of Cooper Cup. I wouldn't do that. I don't think we would collectively,

but you can certainly make an argument based on what happened to both these guys last year and their quarterback situations. As bad as, you know, Tua's health scenario is, it's equally as bad for Matthew Stafford with his back. Yeah, I'm just going to tell you, if you look at the games that Tua did not leave early, just the healthy Tua games, and you look at Tyreek Hill's 17-game pace over those games,

I believe he would have scored four fewer fantasy points than Justin Jefferson scored. So he was almost the same exact player, about 40 fewer yards, 11 fewer catches, but two more touchdowns um actually though i'm not including justin jefferson's rushing touchdown so it would have been more like 10 or 11 fewer fantasy points than jefferson what's that not on purpose though all right tier two this terrible tier you ready dan this is it i'm going to shred Jamie's tears. Okay. Okay. Well, I want to know what you think. Tier two is a big tier. It's six players. Diggs, Lamb, St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, and Devante Adams.

Diggs, Lamb, St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Devante Adams. What do you think? I'm pretty. So, first of all, for me, my tier one would be just Jefferson Chase, and then my tier two would be Cup Hill and Diggs, so it's a little bit different there, but after that, I would have a simple, so let's just call this tier two for me. I think the drop off for me would come after AJ Brown, and then I would leave out Garrett Wilson and Devante Adams from this tier. I also might have Jalen Waddle up in the mix here for this tier. Cause I really like Jalen Waddle,

but I don't hate this. I don't, I don't see what your problem could be with. This is pretty fine. It's actually going to maybe pushing up Wilson a little bit, which I'm fine with, but Adams scares me, but you know,

there's still 170 target potential there. So I kind of get it, but what, what, what really bothers you about this tier? I don't see anything too off. I think digs is a cut above St. Brown and A.J. Brown. Yes, he would have been in the tier above of me too with those back three.

And Adams is interesting. So basically when I look at Diggs, Lamb, St. Brown, A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Devontae Adams. Jamie, there are two who have shown the ability to be first-round players, and that's Diggs and Adams. Lamb probably doesn't have a 1,700-yard upside or anything, but he's so solid. What if Amon Ross St. Brown wasn't tackled at the 1, 17 times last year? I don't know.

The thing about St. Brown is that did he even have 1,200 yards last year? He's just not an alpha number one outside guy. Who's I don't think he is, but I don't think he has 1400 yard potential. Um, I don't either. So I don't know. I just feel like, I don't think digs in St. Brown are, are particularly close. It might be a stupid thing to say at the end of the year, but for me, if I, if I have digs and St. Brown on the clock at the same time, it's just not – in fact, if I have Diggs or any of these other five. Oh, no.

This isn't a draft conversation, though. This is a tier conversation. And so there's got to be somebody at the top of the tier and then somebody at the bottom of the tier. And so, again, the way that I approach this, I said this yesterday, it was more sort of where am I drafting these guys and just me personally. So Diggs is a second-round guy for me, you know, borderline first-round, second-round guy depending on how you take running backs.

I have no problem taking the first round. But I kind of grouped it that way. And so you could even go back to, you know, the graphic, just because I'm looking at it here. There are four guys that average over 20 PPR points per game. He's just below that threshold. So that's why, and I think, you know, the thing that concerns me a little bit is, is he starting to get to that point

where maybe he's going to tick down a little bit, you know, not fall off, but start to tick down a little bit, you know, just based on his age and what we're seeing with, you know, his production. So he's amazing. I mean, there's no doubt about it,

but he's the top of the second tier for me as opposed to the end of the first year. I don't know how you feel about this. One of the ways I look at tiers at least this early in the draft is, well, let's put some running backs in there, right? And which of these wide receivers am I definitely taking over the running back that's going in that range? So that might be Tony Pollard, at least in our drafts.

Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, right? And, you know, I would take them over a Monro St. Brown. It might depend on who I took in the first. I don't know. I don't know how you feel about that. And it's it's not so concrete. It's kind of tough.

But so if if if I was really going to do this and give you 15 tiers, it would have been Diggs and Lamb in their own tier. OK. OK. Let me ask you this. If you were going to break this tier out into upside, if you were going to separate them based on upside, how would you do that?

Diggs still has the most. Diggs and Wilson probably would be the top of that. Don't forget about Devontae Adams. I know he's not on the graphic you're seeing. Yeah. Don't forget about him. I would say they all have upside aside from Devontae Adams. You don't think Devonta Adams?

I think Adams is kind of right with him on Ross St. Brown. As much as I love him, I don't know if he's as much of an upside play as a tight play. I'm very curious, though, and we've talked about this, and I know how you feel about it, Dan, that what is Ben Johnson going to do in those first six games without Jamison Williams? Now I know DJ Chark.

I know Marvin Jones is there, but this is a guy that's in his early 30s at this point. Sam Laporte is there, different player from last year, and clearly here Gibbs. But is Marvin Jones going to be their field stretcher and only guy in that role? Or does now Amon Ron St. Brown play a little bit of a different role to start the season? And he's great at getting open. Clearly he's better suited to play the slot. I think we all agree on that. But how does Ben Johnson sort of get through those first six games

until maybe what Adam feels is like the alpha shows up from an outside receiver standpoint? I don't think he takes more targets from Amon Ross St. Brown, but I think the offense is going to be very interesting to see through the beginning part of the season. So I don't know if Amaro St. Brown's role changes at all, but if it does, maybe the numbers are a little bit different those first six games.

The role change would help him. Obviously, him not getting tackled the one so often would help him, but the biggest difference for me from an upside standpoint with Amaro St. Brown versus the rest of this list is, I don't know if I see big play touchdowns coming. That's exactly it. And the rest of the group, I think, can do that. Yeah.

And that's probably the biggest difference for me. So if he gets seven short area touchdowns, those are... Right. But does he have 12 touchdown potential? You know, I would say no. I would say probably not. No, but I think you're talking about a 100-catch guy, what he does with his yards on top of that,

and then if he can get to 10 touchdowns, that would be a huge year. He just reminds me so much of Keenan Allen, who has been one of the most... Oh, nuts. No, it's terrific. It's terrific. I would not put Keenan Allen, even in his prime,

up there with Stephon Diggs. Right, exactly. I don't know that Keenan Allen's ever finished higher than wide receiver seven, and he's usually around 12 per game. But, you know, I'm sorry. Which is good. You want that on your team. I didn't mean to quibble and bog this down. I was just trying to be fun.

Adams is the one that scares me the most i'm very nervous about the adam situation from jimmy injury to the fact that i feel like we love adams because he had that great year with raiders last year but then you look at it and it's like well he was targeted insane amount from an air yard standpoint in deep game and i have no idea where that's and that was because derrick carr was just in effort mode and he was just like i'm just throwing it downfield. I do not see that happening with any quarterback on that roster right now. So I think he's just all short targets.

And I'm just like, do I want a bunch of crappy short targets on a team that's probably not scoring a lot? And again, I'll go back to this, you know, and I know Adam's going to say he's in the elite tier of guys that should probably be able to do this, but when receivers turn 30 and you're asking them to be at a certain level, there's only been 17 guys in 10 years to average 15 points per game or higher, and only 3 in that same span have done it at the level that Adams did it last year

at 19 points per game or more. Now again, if he slips to 17, you'll still be okay with that because I think that's the range of guys you're looking at in round two. But it's just everything that's just being stacked against Devonta Adams is the concern. So I'm with you as well. That's why he's at the bottom of the tier for me.

All right, tier three, Jalen Waddell, Devonta Smith, T. Higgins, and Chris Olave. Jalen Waddell, Devonta Smith, T. Higgins, Chris Olavelave. Jalen Waddell, Devontae Smith, Tee Higgins, Chris Olave. You know, I talked about the stretch of Tyreek Hill and Tua. How about those same 12 games, Jalen Waddell and Tua? He scored enough fantasy points per game to be, I think, the number four? Oh, no. Yeah, it's a little bit different. Sorry.

Number eight wide receiver. There was a better stretch for him before Jalen Waddell got hurt because he was slowed down a little bit toward the end of the season. Anyway, tier three is Waddell, Devontae Smith, T. Higgins, and Chris Olave. And, Jamie, are these guys suitable number one wide receivers if you do wait until early round three to take one? Yes, I think the only problem with that is where they're going. It's probably the only way you're going to take them as your number one wide receiver

is if you probably took Christian McCaffrey with your first pick and then maybe took Mark Andrews or a quarterback on the swing to start round two because I think where these guys are going. But yeah, again, I think you could also see a situation where you take Waddle in the second round and Smith or Higgins in the third round as well. So, yeah, they certainly could be. You know, and, again, I don't disagree that Waddle could be in the group above him. And Smith was, you know, a star, you know, 136 targets, hard to overlook.

I think Higgins was largely disappointing last year for a lot of people just based on the expectations. But I think you look at still the body of work and what he's been able to accomplish going into now his fourth year with the quarterback he plays with. These three guys to start this list, Alave, the exception, are arguably the best number two wide receivers in the league. And they just happen to play with some pretty big alphas next to them, which kind of hurts their overall production, I think.

But let me ask you this, because you talked about Dan taking running back, running back. Both of you going running back, running back. And you said Dan recovered. And Dan said, I think I reached maybe for Calvin Ridley in round three, the draft we did yesterday. What if you go McCaffrey in round one or Eckler in round one or whatever? And then maybe Derrick Henry is there. Like, Derrick Henry went 24th in our draft yesterday.

Maybe Chubb or one of those guys falls, and you go running back, running back, and then in round three, you take Waddle, Smith, Higgins, or Olave. They won't all be there, but one of them probably will be there. How do you feel about that start? It's amazing.

It's the difference between having an early pick and a late pick in the first round because you have the luxury of these guys being there early round three. So it changes the conversation for sure. I think if you're going to go running back, running back, no one's going to get one of these two guys. If you go McCaffrey or Eckler, and then you're probably going to end up seeing that range in round two, Nick Chubb, Derek Henry are probably the two guys

that will fall of the upper echelon caliber running backs. Maybe Jacobs starts against that range, and who knows Barkley, depending on the holdout and how that pushes those guys down from an ADP standpoint. But yeah, if you know that you can get one of these four guys, but even the top three, because Alavi still has to prove it, that's the ideal way to draft if you are inclined to go running back, running back. So what would you rather do? Let's just give you McCaffrey in round one. And then let's say you get Derrick Henry in round two,

which looking at different forms of ADP seems actually pretty realistic. Would you rather have McCaffrey, Henry, and Higgins? I don't think you're going to get Waddle. He's the first one to go in this group. But McCaffrey, Henry, Higgins, Dev don't think you're going to get Waddle. He's the first one to go in this group. But McCaffrey, Henry, Higgins, Devante Smith, Olave, one of those three? Or McCaffrey, let's say Garrett Wilson, and maybe Ramondre Stevenson, Najee Harris,

Jameer Gibbs, around three running back. Which start do you like better? I think I prefer that running back, running back start more. So it's basically it's Henry and Olave Higgins or Smith versus, what did I say, Garrett Wilson? Garrett Wilson, and then you get like a Ramondre Stevenson. In this scenario, I would prefer that, but what I would probably do ideally

would go McCaffrey, Wilson, Waddle, or McCaffrey, Wilson, Smith. Yeah. Take the two receivers next. Right. Like, that's the build I prefer more. Fair enough. Last question about this group here.

Do they have top, do any of these guys have top five upside? 1,400 yard, eight to ten touchdown kind of season upside? Assuming, or you're saying without, assuming no injury to those. Assuming no injuries to quarterbacks, no injuries to wide receivers, no injuries to anyone. I don't, I think a lot of it would be the only one. And,

but then that would also rely on Michael Thomas getting injured again. Um, the one that I think, well, no, I guess they, they, they could,

you know, the thing about Waddle is you, you alluded to this, you know, he was almost right there. If Tua had stayed healthy, you know, the thing that's great about the three guys here, maybe not so much Higgins because they're, you know,

with Boyd and with now Irv Smith, you know, we'll see maybe the ball spread around a little bit too much. But Waddle and Smith get so many concentrated targets, especially Waddle and Tyreek Hill. You know, there's not a third guy here in Miami. Yeah, I know. And so that's the, there's not a third guy here in Miami. Yeah, I know. And so that's the thing. They're going to get so many opportunities.

You know, you could be looking at 250-plus target guys, which is just insane. Yeah, and so Waddle, I said he was, okay, okay. 12 games with a healthy two on pace for 79 catches, 1,514 yards, 11 touchdowns on only 125 targets. Now, the yards and the touchdowns on only 125 targets. Now, the yards and the touchdowns make you think top five guy, but the 79 catches, the pace of 79 catches,

is what made him only, on that pace, would have only wide receiver nine per game in full PPR, wide receiver eight in non-PPR. But like I said, he did suffer through an injury late in the year. Before that, he was blowing away that pace with Tua and actually would have been more like a top five guy along with Tyreek Hill. I think it's easiest to see it with Waddle personally. Tier four is Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, Jerry Judy, Amari Cooper, Christian Watson, and Debo Samuel.

It does certainly feel a lot different than Tier 3. To me, at least, Jamie, does it feel a lot different to you? Ridley, Keenan Allen, Jerry, Judy, Amari Cooper, Christian Watson, Debo Samuel. Yeah, this is the fall-off. This is where we start to see, again, the guys that have either age concern in Keenan Allen, you know, target concerns, you know, when you talk about, you know, Cooper now with Elijah Moore there and Debo Samuel,

certainly with the 49er situation. And the, you know, the, the question marks surrounding Calvin Ridley coming back, Jerry Judy with Russell Wilson and Christian Watson, but there's still so much upside here. You know, that's the thing. It's like, there's still so much to love about this group. It's just a matter of, do you want them in round three

or would you just be thrilled to get any of these guys in round four? And I think that's the conversation is like, if you have to, you know, dip your toe into this pool. And again, I'll throw DK Metcalf in there and maybe even DeAndre Hopkins, depending on how people feel about him. It feels like round three,

or at least the backend of round three, you're going to have to reach for one of these guys. And that just feels a little icky at this point, knowing that there's still so many question marks about you know really the entire group i end up taking a lot of calvin ridley in round three you know and i get criticized for it oh my god you took him again you know a lot of these analyst drafts i get to this point and i'm like okay here's my second wide receiver i hate the running back group at this point you know to to draft those guys in round three as well and so i'm just going to take the the best

receiver for me and that ends up being calvin ridley and then it's like oh could i've gotten in around four and that's just the gamble you have to take it's such a no man's land when the top three quarterbacks are off the board yeah there's a group of running backs that you like but as jamie's saying you like them a lot better in round four and some of them are going to be there in round four and then there's this group of wide receivers because higgins olave and smith have come off the board we're talking about a later round three pick and so yeah go ahead dan you took ridley in round three too that was the spot it was the late round three i think it was the 10th pick overall or the ninth pick overall and it's like i was actually between ridley and keenan allen i like keenan allen a considerable amount more than i think most

the consensus right now it sounds like more than you guys like him right now i understand the drawback with Alan. It's more just a floor play for me. I still think he's their go-to guy on third downs in those key spots. And he still has a very good chance of getting on your receptions. But I think that if you're taking receiver here, you just have to understand that you're banking. At this point in your draft, guys like Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, for example, these are the two that stand out to me the most of this list and Ridley. He's not on the graphic, but he's in

this tier. Actually, let's take out Ridley for a second. Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper. You're still getting a solid floor out of those two. Yes, there's more target competition for Amari Cooper, but he's still the number one guy. He's still the outside guy. And he's the only one who developed the rapport with Watson last year. And they look pretty good together. Keenan Allen, same type of situation. Yes. Quinton Johnson's there, but he's still the one who has the best rapport with Justin Herbert. Mike Williams is there, but he gets injured all the time. So I still feel like there's a solid floor with both of those players. And at this stage of my draft, I do want floor because as you mentioned, Adam, I'm not the running backs. I like in this spot and I ended up taking a lot of running backs,

but like you said, some of them feel a little bit gambly. Some of them feel like I can get them around later and maybe I'm not picking in the downside as much here with these players, but I do feel like there's solid floor plays left, at least in Cooper and Allen. Yeah, actually more and more. I think about this tier.

I think I really, the more I like it, I like all these guys. I love this tier. I'm just here. We're drafting this tier. That's the question. You know,

that that's what it comes down to. It's like, so I'll give you, I'll give you my, my dilemma in this draft yesterday. And I kind of did this on purpose because I wanted to play it out. So I started my, my draft at the seven spot with Bijan Robinson and Tony Pollard felt around

to it. That's not something I expected. So when, when Paul was there, I was like, okay, I'm going to, I'm going to go running back,

running back round three. Mark Andrews made it back to me. No brainer. I'm going to take Mark Andrews. So now I go, okay, no, no wide receiver for the first three rounds. Then it comes to round four. And, uh, I'm staring at Christian Watson and Jerry Judy, and I have Judy ranked out of Watson. So Judy Watson versus Aaron Jones. And I'm like, you know what? I want to play this out. So I played out by taking Aaron Jones in round four. If this was a real draft, I would have taken Judy. But I just wanted to see how the build would work out.

But that was my dilemma. And so do I take what I considered best player on the board, which is Aaron Jones, or do I try and just go and now focus on my receiving core? Now, the way it ended up working out for me, I thought was still pretty good because I got DK Metcalf in round five. I still got Mike Williams.

I got John Dotson. I'm okay with that group knowing how I started my team. But there's no, again, guy that I would consider to be the number one receiver, you know, no lead singer, no alpha guy, you know. And so I still think these guys could all be number one receivers. It's just a matter of, again, their ceiling feels a's, their ceiling feels a little bit capped. You know, you, you, you say this all the time, Adam, who's got top 10 upside. I don't know if these guys, maybe Judy, maybe Ridley, you know, Keenan Allen's probably going to need to stay healthy and just, you know, rack up catches to, to get there. But I think those are the guys. Cause I don't see Debo Samuel. If he's not getting carries, getting there again. I don't know if Christian Watson's going to get there yet. And Amari Cooper just feels again,, like a guy like Dancer. I feel like his floor is super safe. His ceiling is just not that high. Like, I think it's a good ceiling.

I just don't think it's a great ceiling. I think people would say, we'll look at the number one receiver for Deshaun Watson. He's always been an elite guy. And, of course, yes, it was Hopkins. But it was also Will Fuller. Will Fuller was something like wide receiver seven or eight or something like that per game.

I think Will Fuller might go down as one of the most underrated receiver. We just never really got to see his potential other than one year, and then he got busted for PDs. I still don't even understand what happened to him. He was out of the NFL, but why? Yeah, I don't know. It's a shame. But does Cooper – Cooper's just never done that. Maybe he sort of showed that potential

with Dak Prescott a little bit, but why not? Why, let's, you know what, maybe that's a topic for another day because we're 40 minutes in and we've only gotten to four tiers. So we'll explore that. We'll explore that some other time. I'm going to take a quick break here.

I have a lead singer question. As Jamie said, lead singer. I have a lead singer question when we get back. All right, quick question before we get to Tier 5. You're wearing an Aerosmith shirt, Dan? No, no, no. This is a New York Basketball League, one of those NYC leagues I used to play in.

Okay, well, looks like Aerosmith. It should have been Aerosmith. Tier 5, DeAndre Hopkins. Before I even read this, I think there are going to be a couple names in there that you're going to say, really, Tier 5? These. Before I even read this, I think there are going to be a couple names in there that you're going to say, really, tier five? These guys should be higher than this.

But Jamie, probably a little lower than consensus on Hopkins and Metcalf. So Hopkins, Drake London, Chris Godwin, DK Metcalf, and DJ Moore. Hopkins, London, Godwin, Metcalf, Moore. Jamie, do you think that's accurate? Do you think you're going to be lower on Hopkins and Metcalf than most people?

Hopkins, I think I'll probably be right around where consensus is. I think he said he's got him at 19 or 18, so a couple spots below. I don't think that's going to be far off. Metcalf, I'm definitely going to be the low guy. I just see as great as he is

and as great as he should be, he's always kind of let us down a little bit, and Tyler Lockett's outperformed him four of the five seasons that they've played together. And now you have this just ultra breakout caliber rookie wide receiver

that they're throwing into the mix. I don't think he's better than Metcalf, but they've never had a third receiver like this who could, in some cases, surprise us and be the best receiver there for Seattle. So there's just a lot of potential flaws for Metcalf. I love that he led receivers in red zone targets last year, and so hopefully those get converted to a few more touchdowns.

But there's just a lot of mouths to feed in the Seattle offense, and certainly in the Seattle passing game. So I don't have a problem being the low guy, but like I said, I was thrilled to get him as my number one receiver in this draft yesterday, but it was around five. I just don't think he's going to fall around five in most, most drafts.

But ideally tier five for Jamie is a, is a number number two receiver on your roster. Like Jamie said, he went with three running backs and a tight end with his first four picks, just to sort of experiment, but Hopkins, London, Godwin, Metcalf, DJ Moore.

Dan, do you see anything more than number two receivers here from this group? The only chance you have to get more. I mean, you do actually have chances to get more than number two receivers. So this is an interesting tier. Let me start by just saying that because in the past, I feel like this here is a good example of how we've as an industry and, you know, every fantasy manager is listening and playing along has improved on past mistakes in the past. I think these names would be shot way higher up the rankings, but now a lot of people can understand the flaws of playing in bad situations with bad quarterback play. makes up this year outside of DK Metcalf, who has his own concerns that Jamie went over, including the fact that the player Jamie's talking about Jackson Smith and Jigba outproduced Garrett Wilson and Chris Alave in their, in their one season together at Ohio state earn more targets and had more yards. And the slot is the easiest place to get targets. So I am definitely concerned

because of it. The rest of these guys are all guys who could be number ones potentially on their roster, but just have seriously bad quarterback play or situation concerns. DJ Moore, everything I read from Dave was at camp there, Bears camp, and Dave was saying, like, this offense is just going to go straight through DJ Moore, which is great in theory, but then you get to the games, and Justin Field can't keep the passing game on rhythm, and despite the fact that he's looking for more every play, it's not happening. Same thing could happen with Godwin.

Same thing could happen with Drake London. Everyone talks about, oh my God, Mariota was so, has he seen his off target throw percentage? Well, have you seen Desmond Ritter's? Cause it wasn't much better last year either. And then you go on to Deandre Hopkins and that situation I think is a little bit better in my mind, just cause I am a believer in Ryan Tannehill as a thrower of the football versus the rest of this crew, basically with the exception of Gino Smith. And so I feel a little bit better, but then it's like, oh, it's Mike Vrabel. Am I really expecting

a lot of targets? A similar situation, DJ Moore and Jake London there. So I don't really see too much upside in this tier in reality, but in theory, if they did, if one of these teams decided to go pass heavy or just changed it up a little bit. There are potential target hogs here. DJ Moore, maybe not Drake London with Pittsburgh, but Chris Godwin, DJ Moore, like DeAndre Hopkins. There's guys in this tier that... No, but London could be because it could be both of them. Yeah, it could be.

Then again, you're really evolving the pass game in that. Which could happen. Yeah, would you put any of these guys in the previous tier with Ridley, Keenan Allen Judy Cooper Watson and Debo the only one Metcalf I would consider but Jamie has me concerned I really should be considering the fact that there's just so much and that still is a run first team it's Pete Carroll so I don't want to go too crazy there the only one I might consider putting in is Hopkins and more that's it for me okay uh tier six six, Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, Deontay Johnson,

Jahan Dotson, Michael Pittman, Marquise Brown, Mike Williams, and Tyler Lockett. Big tier here. Are these number two, number three receivers, Jamie, Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, Deontay Johnson, Jahan Dotson, Michael Pittman, Marquise Brown, Mike Williams, and Tyler Lockett. And I would, I know I sent this to you this morning, I would include Brandon Ayuk in this tier as well. You'll see him at the start of the next tier, but he should be in this group. Yes, these are number two receivers. And you've heard

me say this, you know, a few times, like once you get almost basically to wide receiver 20 maybe you want to say 22 23 that list until maybe the end of this list you could flip it and I wouldn't necessarily fight you on it you know there's just so much to like about this group but there's also flaws clearly you know mostly quarterback concerns and probably target concerns you know in the case of let's say Christian Kirk Marquise Brown will move up if there's a, you know, in the case of, let's say Christian Kirk, Marquise Brown will move up if there's a healthy Kyler Murray from the start of the season. But, you know, I think for the most part, though, these are guys that if you don't go heavy receiver and you are sort of chasing the position, you know, these are good fallback number two receivers.

You'd love to get them as your number three. And in a lot of cases, if you go receiver heavy, this is your flex. And so I think this is a good place to live in PPR if you're talking about number three receiver, number four receiver, but again, a starter if you play a flex. Typically, though, we're going to want these guys to be our number three, right? I mean, you're saying they could be a two, but this is... Oh, for sure. Yeah.

I mean, look, you don't want to necessarily fall into the trap that I did yesterday or that Dan did, but again, he sort of spun it a little differently getting receivers right after his two running backs. But like Chris and I, because again, Chris took a quarterback in round three, didn't start taking receivers until round four. I didn't start taking receivers until round five. Ideally, you would like to have these guys as your third receiver. Again, like I said, your fourth.

All right. So again, I'm going to give dan uh you talk about this group here it's kirk mclaurin deontay johnson johan dotson pitman marquise brown mike williams tyler lockett and now we'll throw brandon iukin there um look these guys could get drafted in round seven or eight and last year amandra st brown davante smith and amari Cooper were all drafted around seven through eight. So let's not overlook this group at all. What do you think? I like two players specifically in this group because they're upside.

The first one I'm going to say is Michael Pittman. So with Pittman, it's a gamble. Let's be honest. But if that passing game takes off in ways we're not expecting it to, and we're not so sure that won't happen. Like Shane Steichen did a really good job developing Jalen Hurts. And I don't want to give him all the credit for it, but played a role in doing a good, really good job in developing Jalen Hurts to a much better passer than he was at any point in his career by a considerable margin. And you can even see it on the film. When you watch Hurts, he's throwing with anticipation more than I had seen him at any

point in his college days or in his early NFL career. So if that happens faster than Anthony Richardson, Pittman could be the go-to guy. And we know that with these like developing quarterbacks, these younger quarterbacks, sometimes they tend to lock on or not. Sometimes more often than not, they tend to lock onto one target in the passing game. And so I see upside for Pittman based on that, that I don't see with some of these other players here. So he would be the one I kind of feel best about. And the other one that I'm drafting a lot of, and I'm maybe not as much of an upside play, but I just think he's misproperly valued this year is Terry McLaurin. I don't really agree with him being in this group. And I know this is across the fantasy

industry. This is not just Jamie's tears. A lot of people just in the industry were getting McLaurin very late. And I understand the concerns, the quarterback situation, the fact that we really like John Dotson, but he's still Terry McLaurin and he's still one of the best separators, in my opinion, against man coverage in the entire NFL and a top 10 group there. And that gets you targets. You earn targets when you separate from man coverage on a consistent basis, which he's done his entire NFL career to a high degree.

And so I just feel like he's going to earn targets again. There's not really a ceiling there, obviously with Sam Howell and John Dotson, you know, in the mix there, but I think you're getting good value and good floor play there the best that mclaurin i don't draft i actually haven't found myself drafting this group a lot you know you pick a few guys like i like christian

kirk i love christian kirk me either by mclaurin's the only one i'm drafting in this group really a lot of never draft mclaurin he is not finished higher than wide receiver 20 per game in his career. The last two years, he's been wide receiver 34-ish and wide receiver 26 per game. I don't think the floor is all that high. I understand that he's a more talented player than

what we've seen from a fantasy perspective. He's been certainly held back by the situation. You know what I say about Stefan Diggs? Yeah. Yeah. A guy that may just never perform, and then he got traded, and then we saw him perform.

You know what? You guys are – you've changed my opinion on this, honestly, because I think that's a good example by Jamie. And, Adam, you're right. I didn't realize how bad he was on that points per game. It's not bad. I think he's just maybe just a much better – no, not bad. It's not bad, but it's not great.

It's not winning your league. great. You're at wide receiver, 27, 28 range. He performs more like a number three receiver. Yeah. But he has, you know, he has top,

he has top 20 reality performances. You know, that's the thing. It's like the, the numbers never support, I think the caliber of player that he is. And that probably speaks to the quarterbacks that he's played with and the offenses that he's been in.

And I don't know if that's going to change, you know, it's, it's right. I don't, I don't know if we view Washington, it's a crowded group, you know, especially if they're going to involve Antonio Gibson, you know, cause Dotson's going to make a lot of plays. You know, he, he really sort of just scratched the surface a little bit last year, understandably. So as a rookie, but he missed a lot of time, you know, and so if he plays a full season and the touchdown sort of gets spread out a little bit, but the other number, the other the other raw numbers come up you know just in terms of his catches in his yards curtis samuel's not going away exactly they're going to use their tight ends you know and that's part of it it's like they have a pretty big group and now you have a young quarterback that they're asking you know to sort of support all these guys and it's a guy that's going to run more than we

probably anticipate or at least if you haven't been following it you know he was 800 yard rusher i know we've talked about this a lot on our show, but Sam Howell ran for 800 yards in North Carolina, you know, so he's, he may take off a little bit more. So I believe you, I struggle with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. You know, I think the upside for both of them is there collectively. However, I think they just bring each other down. Yeah.

I think Jamie has them in the same tier, but they're not really being drafted that way. So it just makes so much more sense to wait three rounds, basically, to draft Jahan Dotson if you want a piece of that passing game. And I guess, Jamie, if I look at your tiers, the reason maybe why I said I don't draft tier six much, which is what we just talked about. I don't I actually think I maybe like some of the guys in tier seven better than tier six. I certainly don't mean that as a criticism. I mean, nobody's going to have all these guys ranked differently,

but to me, maybe there's not a huge difference because tier seven is Mike Evans, Jordan Addison, George Pickens, and Gabe Davis. These guys are number two receivers on their respective teams for Addison and Davis. You could be talking about teams that are top five and passing yards this year,

but it's Evans, Addison, Pickens, and Gabe Davis. You could be talking about teams that are top five and passing yards this year, but it's Evans, Addison, Pickens, and Gabe Davis. What's, why are they a tier lower than the guys we talked about? Kirk McLaurin, Deontay,

Jahan Dotson, Pittman, Marquise Brown, Mike Williams, Tyler Lockett, Brandon Ayuk. Again, it's,

you know, when we start to lump these guys together, you know, did you want a 20 tier, a 20 group tier? Cause I could have done that to you. You know, and I'm not saying this to be critical.

I'm just saying that's how I feel about these guys. If I was doing projections, they'd be decimal points apart from each other. They're that close. And, again, they have their flaws. They have their upside. Evans, if we get a surprise season from Baker Mayfield, he's going to be one of the best values that we saw. Gabe Davis, I was just reading a story in The Athletic.

You know, they did a, I think it's a 10-part series from Joe Buscaglia, who does a great job covering the bills, breaking down all their position groups, and that this is a huge year for Gabe Davis, and I feel like he's going to be one of my favorite draft targets because he's in a contract year. He's one of these guys, 25 years old, with speed. If he hits the market, I mean, you saw it, Mark. He's Marquez Valdez 25 years old, with speed. If he hits the market, you saw Mark Cresvalda's Gantling got paid.

This guy's got a chance to get a huge deal, probably get overpaid, but get a huge deal from a team that's looking for speed. He's a very good blocking wide receiver. I know we don't talk about that in fantasy, but that's a big part of his value. This is a huge year for him. Part of the story was, we've illustrated this a lot, the ankle injury that he suffered prior to Week 2, he missed out on probably a huge game because if you remember, that was the game Stefan Diggs just absolutely obliterated Titans when their secondary was a joke. He got, came back early from that. And, and, and Joe did

a good job illustrating this in the story that he was playing, you know, 80% of the 80 plus percent of the snaps right away, you know, and was not a hundred percent of the snaps right away and was not 100%. And then right when he finally started getting healthy, then Josh Allen hurts his elbow and the passing game, especially the downfield throw, is not the same. So you're talking about a guy that they did not get DeAndre Hopkins. They went out and drafted a tight end, so more of an interior player as much as they'll move Dalton Kincaid around.

Khalil Shakir, Trent Shurfield, these are guys competing for mostly slot opportunities. It's Stephon Diggs and Gabe Davis. And as much as you want to say they'll run the ball more, as much as you want to say that Kincaid's going to make plays, he should have the year that we were hoping for last year if he stays healthy and Allen stays healthy. Yeah, I'm with you. This is a great group to target. It's a great group

again if you're looking to get a flex-wide receiver. These are the type of guys you're looking at. So yeah, I, these are the type of guys you're looking at. So yeah, I love this group as well. Okay. And probably, you know, well, I don't know if you're going to feel differently about them than we are about Tier 8.

Let's find out. Tier 8, Jamison Williams, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Brandon Cooks, Juju Smith-Schuster, Traylon Burks, do I have to say I trumped him? And Michael Thomas. Although it is funny that, you know, if people are really concerned about DeAndre Hopkins holding up,

then, you know, maybe Traylon Burks ends up being a huge steal. But we usually... You mean injuries? Yeah, yeah. Because he has dealt with it two years in a row now. Although there was some question marks about whether he was really hurt at the end of last year. But Tier 8 is Jamison Williams, Jackson Smith and Jigba,

Brandon Cooks, Juju Smith-Schuster, Traylon Burks, and Michael Thomas. Dan, what do you think about Tier 8? I think you can start to see, just based off the last year, we were talking about so much excitement around them, and I feel like even in that last year, there were two guys that were definitely higher on my board than the others, but you can start to see the drop off here, clearly here, right? Like we're talking about guys, like there's only one player I'm targeting in this entire, I was targeting a lot of trail on Berks, but now obviously that was before the

Deandre Hopkins news. I've lost almost all of my enthusiasm and trail on Berks, sadly, just based on how I think that offense will work. But, you know, looking at this tier, the only guy I'm targeting, the only guy I'm ending up with any of my rosters, Brandon cooks, who I love this year from a fantasy standpoint. Um, but the rest of this tier, like Jamison Williams, we're missing six games. He comes back. I don't know his role in the offense. Juju Smith Schuster. I'm not going into that. Uh, I'm just not doing that again. I did it last year on the chiefs on a couple of rosters and I just was disappointed. There's no shot I'm now going. He's going to the Patriots, and there's no shot I'm going to now jump in.

Michael Thomas I just don't think will stay healthy at any point in his career at this point with the way that his foot or his ankle, whatever it is, it's been so messed up down there so many times. I'm just like I doubt he's returning to form. So I just find a struggle here to find any excitement about anyone in this, in this group besides cooks, you know, Jamie with Traylon Burks, he's probably going to be somewhere around what wide receiver 40. I mean,

we're 40 deep at this point, something like that. Yeah. We're deep at this point. This is like, you're, you're into like the back. These guys aren't starting most likely on your roster.

Right. And I actually think if he's a good player, which we think he is, I don't think he's just going to be, you know, a complete afterthought. He could still get close to 1,000 yards. But it's probably going to be a lot of, like, three for 49 or, like, four for 60-type games. I mean, again, you know,

if you want to just make comparisons, it's not apples to apples, but in the best year for A.J. Brown, I believe it was 2020 from just a raw number standpoint. Forget about the projected totals. Corey Davis that season averaged over 13 PPR points per game. He had 65 catches. It was just around 100 targets.

Could he do that? Sure. I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility for a player of his caliber that should make a lot of big plays that he doesn't need to be 120 plus target guy or 150 target guy. So he could certainly get his production that way. And then you factor in, again, the potential injuries

or pitfalls for DeAndre Hopkins. I know for me, because I've been on CBS Sports HQ, I've said it here, we did our emergency podcast, I wrote the story about DeAndre Hopkins. I've gotten a lot of pushback on, why are you so down on Traylon Burks? It's just the raw targets for what this team is. They just, you know, 25, 30 and 30 in the last three years from a pass attempt standpoint.

And so when you just start to look at that alone, right. If he was established already, then you could say, okay, he's, he'll be able to do this. So you're projecting him to take a leap. And now you're projecting to take a leap on a low-volume pass attack. And again, Tim Kelly, the offense coordinator, may change things. It may just be something completely different than we've ever seen, but that's hard to expect when Derrick Henry's still there. So you're expecting the projected leap on a low-volume passing attack

to just bring in DeAndre Hopkins. And let's not rule out, they still have guys that they like. We may like him much better. Burks over Chiggo, Conquo, and Kyle Phillips. Those guys will still have guys that they like. We may like him much better. Burks over Chigokonko and Kyle Phillips. Those guys will still get some opportunities as well. Again, the whole pie just got smaller for everybody not named DeAndre Hopkins if he's still DeAndre Hopkins, and that's the question. And the other issue there, for me at least, is you mentioned reference

the 2020 season where they were actually able to get two relevant fantasy receivers out of that offense, but it was a career year for tan hill as a passer the 33 touchdowns only seven interceptions uh through for over let's see what it was it was over 4 000 or just under 4 000 yards like this is not are we sure tan hill is going to get back to that level at this point and are even worse than that for me at least with this situation is are we sure we're going to get tan hill the whole year because i sure as hell need it if I want any part of that Titans pass game because I think the moment they turn to Levis, we're looking at 120 yards passing game because

look at what Levis did last year. He barely broke 200. You're just too low. 120 passing yards a game. I know you don't like Will Levis. I'm going to show you something. He was hurt all year. Why do you only focus on Will Levis?

Will Levis played through injury all year. Why do you only focus on Will Levis? Will Levis played through injury all year. Why do you only focus on his injury? Focus on the year before. Look what he did the year before. I'm about to give you some stats. Before you get there, though, Dan, just one point, though, about Daniel. I don't think they make this move to get DeAndre Hopkins if they're turning to Will Levis, barring an injury.

I think this is – we've now seen the Titans, okay. They look at it, and I know you brought this up, Adam. We talked about this with Heath a little bit. They look at it as they were a game away from still winning the division, as disastrous as the season was last year. And that while everybody's anointing Jacksonville, and believe me, I'm one of those people. I think Jacksonville wins the division.

But is Jacksonville right now that much better? I think you could say personnel-wise, yes. But from just team versus team, I don't know if Jacksonville is running away with the division. And so now Tennessee has a chance, you know, based on improving their receiving core, if their defense can hold up with what they're able to do and how they win, the way that Mike Rabel's gotten wins,

they'll be right there. You know, I don't think they're able to do and how they win the way that Mike Rabel's gotten wins. Yeah. They'll be right there. You know, I don't think they're, they're, they're looking at it as we're rebuilding, you know, they,

they drafted will Levis, I think to be the quarterback of the future. And obviously if the season goes in the tank, because Henry gets hurt and, you know, Tannehill struggles or gets hurt, then we'll love us. We'll be the guy,

but I don't think we're gonna see we'll love us based on a, a, Hey, guess what? We're, we're, we're, we're throwing the cards on the table.

And I think Jamie made a good enough point there that I will just bow out and I won't bury Adam with the stats here because he was about to get absolutely buried because I don't know what Levis's injury was, but I don't think it was arm related. I'm pretty sure it was lower half. And so that shouldn't affect him throwing that much.

And I was just kind of burying him. There was a game where he had 27 pass attempts and threw for 98 yards. I just don't understand why you are only looking at one year. Look at what he did. Look at some of these

yardage totals. Look at what he did the year before. 188 against a Louisville defense. 109 against Vanderbilt. Like, what are we talking about? Obviously, he was not right. I believe their offensive line

was in shambles. He had offensive line concerns, receiver concerns. Who doesn't? Coaching concerns. There were a lot of things... Offensive line concerns, receiver concerns, coaching concerns. There are a lot of things working against them. Now, the great ones typically tend to do better than what Dan is illustrating because that's where guys typically tend to outperform. Fine.

There's a reason why Will Levis fell to where he fell. I just don't understand why, if you're going to analyze a player, why you're completely ignoring the previous year. As if it did not exist. That's it. I'm picking up the last year's game. No, I don't care about last year's game.

Because it wasn't that good. Because it wasn't that good. Oh, the year before that? You mean 2021? The year before that was not that good. His healthy year. 149 yards passing against Louisville. 177 against Vanderbilt.

How many attempts? 150 against Mississippi State. How many attempts? 192 against Georgia.ilt. How many attempts? 150 against Mississippi State. How many attempts? 192 against Georgia. 145 against LSU. 87 against Florida. 102 against South Carolina. 179 against Missouri.

I mean, he had 367 against Louisiana Monroe. Good job there. 254 against Chattanooga. Good job there. But I mean, that's what we're talking about is highs there. All right. If he starts, he's going to throw for more than 125 yards per game. I'll take the over.

We are going overtime. We're going overtime today. We haven't talked about a Chiefs receiver yet, so let's get to Tier 9, which has two Chiefs receivers, and Jamie has moved Sky Moore. They're back-to-back. Moore and Kadarius Toney, but Jamie's going to be lower on Toney than consensus,

at least as of right now. Nico Collins, Elijah Moore, Romeo Dobbs, Quentin Johnston, Rashad Bateman, and Cortland Sutton. Sky Moore, Kadarius, Tony, Nico Collins, Elijah Moore, Romeo Dobbs, Quentin Johnston, Rashad Bateman, and Cortland Sutton. Jamie, is this a vomit noise type of tier? No. Okay, no, it's not, according to Dan no I love I love this tier

I love this you know so I think when you when you I don't want to say just because you miss on wide receivers these are the group of guys that you should be targeting but this is a great group to get your fourth receiver your fifth receiver guys that you want to take a swing at defense at just because if they hit they're going to hit in a big way let's say like Quentin Johnson for example if there is no Mike Williams for a stretch of games or even Keenan Allen for a stretch of games. But Nico Collins, I think, could be the lead guy there for the Texans, and this is going to be another team. We look at the 49ers, and we just marvel at how they get guys open.

Well, the passing game coordinator from last year is now the offense coordinator in Houston, and so CJ Stroud isn't any good. I think Nico Collins has a chance to be that third-year that third year breakout. I wrote about third year wide receivers. We talked about who's going to be the breakout type of guys. He's one of those guys, Romeo Dobbs, you know, you look at what he was able to accomplish in the first four games last year. He's going to be the second guy on the team in terms of targets behind

Christian Watson. But this is a guy that's gotten a lot of rave reviews. You know, I think you look at the Chiefs guys, obviously somebody's going to emerge from one of these two and hopefully both. But I think if you're banking on role, I'll take the slot receiver, which is going to be Sky Moore. If you're banking on health, I'll take Sky Moore. Elijah Moore was great as a rookie. Got in the doghouse last year. Now he gets a new opportunity with the Browns. He could be a special type of player. So yeah, I love this tier. And again, this is kind of the struggle

when you do rankings and tiers and even when you draft. Do you take the chance on Juju Smith-Schuster who could get a lot of targets in New England or do you pass on him and take, let's say, the upside of somebody in this group? And that's just, I think, how you have to approach the floor versus ceiling

and which guy could be better. Yeah, somebody in our chat says, is the limit as in Skymore. And it just reminds me that Dan Schneier has never come up with a good team name. Like once, what are you talking about? Never come up with a good team name. Yeah.

It's and you know, in our baseball league, I think your team name is just Dan. No, no, it was a, it was a pun lash. First of all,

you take way too much joy in like coming up with your little puns. And first, I'm not even sure the best one you ever had, I think Jamie came up with, to be honest, from what I heard behind the scenes, the Alex Minora. No, first of all, his name is Alec. You write a newsletter every day, and you can't even know the guy's name is Alec Minora. And I think I came up with Alec Minora. Jamie, did I come up with that?

I think it was Jamie. We've had a lot of good ones over the years. I'm talking about football team names here. I'll impress you with a football team name. I came up with Stefan Diggs, Laura Winslow. I think I had some good ones too. You also had like Oil of Alave. Oil of Alave is incredible.

It's not a miss. Oil of Alave is a whole run. Everyone liked that one, dude. Everyone? Do a poll. Do a quick poll. You don't even try. You don't even try. Do a quick poll and see if anyone even knows the reference of Oil of the Lave. Yo, do you have an older sibling?

No. Okay, well, that's a problem. Not only are you younger, you don't have any... You have a young audience, Adam. Just gonna leave it with Ethan says Oil of the Lave was a terrible team game. This is a rare time where Adam puts up a bad comment about himself on the YouTube. He's really usually just like maneuvering and manipulates the YouTube

comments and only puts up the good ones about himself. The flattering one. I, uh, Ethan doesn't even know what oil of Olay is. See, no one does. Matt said,

shouldn't have been an Olay oil. No, I'm not going with olive oil. I'm going with oil. Somehow Matt, it's not a play on olive oil. I'm going with oil of Olay. Somehow, Matt, it's not a play on olive oil. It's like this dumb commercial that he saw once in his life

that no one follows or cares about and that's not relevant at all in 2023. Okay. I'm going to leave you with this take that I know is going

to piss Dan off. Oh, God. Episode three, I believe, of that video game show that I never finished. The Last of Us. Is episode three the one with Ron Swanson? Is that episode two? Yeah, that was good.

Episode three, extremely overrated just because it was Ron Swanson. A good episode, but overrated because it was Ron Swanson. Talk to you later.