Fantasy Football Today - WR Tiers! There's Upside Everywhere (07/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 14, 2021

Nominate us on PodcastAwards.com! https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup How many Top 12 WRs in 2020 were drafted in Round 4 or later and can you name them!? Keep that in mind as you draft WRs as there is upside throughout the first six or seven rounds. We'll give you some ADP lessons (2:40) and talk about how late you can draft a WR with Top 12 upside before we look at the tiers. Also, news and notes (10:30)! Big workloads for David Montgomery and Damien Harris? ... Tier 1 at WR (17:40) is basically the WRs who will be drafted in Rounds 1 and 2. Is Michael Thomas in this group? Tier 2 is a little more controversial. Do Allen Robinson and Robert Woods belong here? How do we separate the WRs in Rounds 3 and 4 (27:30)? And let's break down (35:00) the Bucs, Cowboys and Rams WRs ... We still have some great WRs available in Round 5 (44:00) and beyond as we will get to some of the Bengals and Steelers WRs. Plus, mid-round values like Brandin Cooks, Deebo Samuel and Tee Higgins and late-round rookies to look at ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Hey, did you know that six of the top 12 wide receivers in PPR last year, six of the top 12 were drafted in round four or later? Did you know that? Can you name them? Anyone?

Can you name them? Half of the top 12, round four or later, according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com. Justin Jefferson. Ding. Stephon Diggs. Ding. Calvin Ridley.

Ding. A.J. Brown. Oh, that's the wrong thing. Points per game or total points? Total points. He wasn't top 12 in total points. I was looking at points per game. Tyler Lockett? You were looking at a list?

Yeah. That's such cheating. Digg on Lockett. So we got one left? Metcalf? Oh, no, we have two left. Metcalf, yes. One more.

So far, you have Lockett, Metcalf, Ridley. They were three round four picks. Jefferson was like round eight or something, and Diggs was round six. One more. Here's a question. There is a tie for 12th place. You're looking at the list now, Drew.

Are we counting that? I win. Yes, we are. Okay, Robert Woods. No, the other guy. Robert Woods was a top four round pick last year? Oh, you know what? If we're counting him, then yeah,

then actually seven of the top 13, technically. But the other guy who's tied with him. Keenan Allen. Yes, Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen wasn't a top... What? No, he was not. Remember, people were pretty low on him.

Rod Taylor was a starting quarterback going into the year. Yeah, he was 54th in ADP in PPR. He was wide receiver 23. He went after such bums as A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Terry McLaurin. That was a pretty good round. How about round four? Juju, oops, Amari Cooper, Cooper Cup, Calvin Ridley, Robert Woods,

AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, DJ Chark, Tyler Lockett. Then into round five, Lockett, McLaurin, Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton, Cortland Sutton, Marquise Brown. And that's what I'm afraid of this year, that the round four and five guys, half of them are going to be studs. Some of them are just going to be awful. And it could make or break your draft so i well yeah i i've done some research on this looking at past adp over the last five seasons and of the top 12 wide receivers in adp over the last five seasons at the position

29 out of 60 finished as top 12 wide receivers that season 36 out of 60 finished as top 12 wide receivers that season. 36 out of 60 finished as top 24. So, you know, I think you could fairly say that about 60% of wide receivers drafted among the top 12 will be hits, I guess, because I think outside of the top 24, you start to get into, that was disappointing, territory. And the fourth and fifth round uh let me see oh no i can't find it somebody's well i wonder what the trends are like because running backs have been pushed up so the fourth and fifth round has been so great for wide receivers

but go ahead so fourth and fifth rounds over the last five years 49 wide receivers have been drafted between the fourth and fifth round on average 17 out of the 49 finished as top 12 wide receivers 28 of 49 finished as top 24 so again in that range you're looking at right around 60 top 24 wide receivers um which you know sounds a little disappointing until you compare it to running backs where you know last you know just over half finished this top 24 running backs in that same round four and five yeah that's good stuff um okay and so i guess the question is one of my first questions here as we look at wide receiver tiers. How late can you go into your wide receiver tiers and or rankings to find someone that you think

still has top 12 potential? Or I guess when does that end? When are you out of players that have top 12 potential in your mind? I think you can go a while, to be honest with you. I think I can look at my top 25 receivers that I've ranked, and I think I can make a case for

every single one of them to finish top 12. Some of them I might look at and say, okay, Chase Playpool, the best you can do is like 12. What did you say, though? You can go how deep? 25. 25, okay. I was just looking at my top 25 receivers. I can go past them, and there might be a couple other

ones after 25th overall that I can say, yeah, maybe. In full PPR, can you make the case for brandon cooks i know it doesn't seem like you can but if he's going to get a ton of targets in houston maybe he can cross that barrier into the 12th spot four or five other times in his career yeah i think jerry judy has top 12 but yeah i don't think it's particularly realistic, but I could probably go down to Judy's 37 for me. I think that's probably, I don't think so.

Do you? Yes. But if, but you know, it's probably, um, uh, probably a better chance than Judy,

I guess, but I don't know. Let's do this with, uh, there, you're not allowed to say if someone gets hurt because I guess if Landry got hurt and Beckham stayed healthy, maybe.

But yeah, assuming health for everyone. Cooks is in the mid-30s in the rankings. T. Higgins is about 30th. Do you think he has top 12 upside? Sure. No. Yeah. If the Bengals throw 620 times,

he definitely has top 12 potential. And he could, like, I'm presuming Chase is going to be the team's number one wide receiver. But that's not guaranteed. Like, that's a guess at best. He's not played in the NFL yet. So then the path for Higgins to be top 12 is he's the number one receiver. Chase, who is considered among the most NFL-ready receiver prospects

over the last five years, isn't ready to be an NFL receiver. Tyler Boyd becomes nothing. No, he doesn't have to be nothing. To be a top 12 receiver, you've got to be really good, especially in PPR. You have to get into. To be a top receiver, you've got to be really good, especially in PPR. You have to get into the 140 target range. You can do it if you have lower, but you need to be extremely efficient.

Realistically, if he gets to 135, 140 targets, that probably gets him into discussion. At a 620 pass attempt pace, that's 25% target share, if I'm doing the math in my head correct, which is high. It's more

than 20%. Yeah, but what if I said this? What if I said, all right, if you're going to be on a team that has a lot of target competition like the Bengals, you need 10 touchdowns or more. Then we're talking. You probably need 10 touchdowns

kind of either way among the top 12 last season. then we're talking. You probably need 10 touchdowns, you know, kind of either way among the top 12 last season. No, not in PPR. I mean, six out of the 12 did it. Yeah. That's not much,

you know, in non PPR, maybe more so, but digs had eight Hopkins had six Ridley, nine, uh, Jefferson seven, Alan Robinson,

six. So you didn't necessarily need it. You needed 88 catches or 10 touchdowns. Yeah. That's not just 88, huh? Hopkins had only 6 touchdowns. He had 115 receptions. Jefferson was the guy that is at 88 and 7.

Everybody else that didn't have 10 touchdowns had at least 90 catches. But everybody else that didn't have 10 touchdowns had at least 90 catches but everybody else that didn't have 10 touchdowns did they have serious competition for targets Diggs no Hopkins no Ridley no because Julio missed so much time Jefferson

Jefferson not really because Thielen had no Thielen no Jefferson yes Thielen had 108 targets and Jefferson had 125. Allen Robinson, no. Tyreek had 15 touchdowns. So I was just talking about

if you don't score 10 touchdowns, how do you get to be a top 12 wide receiver? It's probably with a lot of catches and a lot of targets. I guess that was the point I was making. Sure. So therefore, I would say Higgins probably needs 10 touchdowns. That's my roundabout way. Sure.

And it's asking a lot. It's asking a lot. Right. I think there are probably 25 to 30 wide receivers who you could realistically see not having to do a ton of juggling to get them in the top 12 conversation. It's a deep position that's that's the point um also you hear me talk about 10 touchdowns maybe that's 11 this year obviously i'm kind of basing everything on 16 games maybe every thing needs to be pushed up

just a little bit maybe it's 10 and a half touchdowns in some way all right we'll get into the tears in a second we have a couple of interesting news items we have something that's the most interesting thing we're going to talk about. It's our draft-a-thon, our fourth annual draft-a-thon. It's supporting St. Jude. It will be on September 1st. Last year, we auctioned off fantasy football experiences. We had Zoom calls with our experts. We had custom smack talk videos, playing in a league with our experts. I announced the first round of a draft. That was fun. Guest appearance on our podcast. If you have any great ideas, what you want to see, we've had some really good ones come in.

If you have any ideas of what you want to see auctioned off to benefit St. Jude, leave your ideas either on this YouTube video, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday, or you can tweet at us or send us an email at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com.

And please make sure you put something like St. Jude ideas in the subject line. Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. And please make sure you put something like St. Jude Ideas in the subject line, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That is the letter I. And yeah, that's also the place to send your emails if you just have a general fantasy question that you want answered on the show. But fantasyfootballatcbsi.com or leave a comment on this YouTube video. If you have any ideas what you would like to see to incentivize donations to St. Jude for our draft-a-thon on September 1st. We can't wait for it,

and we can't wait to auction off a lot of good stuff. Some running back news. Matt Nagy wants 20 carries per game for David Montgomery, and Damian Harris, according to Mike Reese of ESPN, is the clear-cut number one running back

for the Patriots. Let's start with the Bears news, Heath. Matt Nagy wants 20 carries per game for David Montgomery. What do you think about that? He also, I think in that same quote, acknowledged what he was saying. He wants to be ahead every game. You're not going to get 20 carries per game

if you're not winning every game. So I don't think 20 carries is very likely, but it was good to hear him say that Montgomery is one of his favorite players in the team. He really talked about how important Montgomery is when you can get into the four minute offense because he doesn't go down at first contact and he will fight for the extra yard or two, which is important when you're trying to pick up first downs on the ground. Um, I, I think it's possible that we're all a little bit too low on Montgomery as a low-end No. 2 running back.

That maybe he should be a high-end No. 2 running back. Maybe he should be in that conversation with Akers and Swift and those guys. But Tariq Cohen still worries me. Yeah, I think if you asked every coach, is your goal to get your lead running back 20 carries in a game, or ideally, would you want to get your lead running back 20 carries in a game, or ideally would you want to get your lead running back 20 carries a game? I would guess every single coach would say yes, because that usually means that you're winning by enough that you don't have to

worry about whether you're moving the ball efficiently late in the game. You can just give the guy, the guy 20 carries, but he's not going to get 340 carries this season. I feel pretty confident in saying he'll get a lot, though. I did want to bring this up. I didn't get the chance to bring it up yesterday. But if you look at David Montgomery

and his yards per catch in two seasons, 7.4 and 8.1, that is better than all but one season for Tariq Cohen, who's had technically four years, but really more like three. And that one year where Tariq Cohen had 10.1 yards, 10.2 yards per catch, he had four catches of 35 plus yards, which is ridiculous. Christian McCaffrey has three of those in his entire career. Other than that, he has actually been pretty bad in terms of yards per catch, Tariq Cohen.

And Montgomery's been better than the normal Tariq Cohen. I guess, I don't know if that's normal. So does that matter to you at all that maybe Montgomery isn't really worse than Tariq Cohen in your, in that aspect of it? I just think the coaches look at him as the most reliable running back they have. And after Cohen tours ACL last year, maybe they're going to be a little hesitant to lean on him that much. What I'm worried about is that they think that Damian Williams is going to be able to give them something substantial and not just be a guy who gives David Montgomery a break here and there throughout the game.

And the idea of getting David Montgomery 20 carries, he's nailed it. It's based on them winning every game. They're not going to win every game. There's going to be some games this year where they get blown out. It's not going to be pretty, but I think Montgomery's earned this after how he played last year. So why are you worried about my,

so, but does this quote from Matt and Aggie as, and we know it's probably not going to happen. 20 carries a game. Does that put your Damian Williams fears to rest? No, because coaches talk a ton during the off season. Okay.

All right, Dave, talk a ton about or or however much you want about damian harris who we did talk about yesterday but mike reese saying that he is the clear-cut number one running back for the patriots very efficient last year very low touchdown rate because cam newton kept stealing him stealing those goal line touchdowns but um thoughts on harris i mean that's what does it for me is that Harris is a good running back. I agree 100%. I've been talking about him for over a year, but how often is he going to be in a position to get a lot of work,

to get the type of carries that David Montgomery in a perfect Chicago world would get with the Patriots who like to mix and match their running backs? I still think James White has his role. I wouldn't be surprised if another running back has a role that kind of helps Damian Harris out. And then what happens when they're inside the three? Is it really going to be Damian Harris consistently or is it going to be Cam Newton? So who's the quarterback going to be? If you're telling me that Mac Jones is the quarterback, I'm a lot more interested in Damian Harris, but I'm really only interested in him

in non-PPR and maybe half PPR formats, less interested in full PPR formats. There were four games last year where he had at least 15 carries. He gave you 10 or more non-PPR points in three of the four. He gave you 10 or more PPR points in each of the four, but he didn't give you 15 PPR points except for one of the four games. So I think he's a non PPR asset. He could work his way into being a low end number two running back in that format, but in full PPR,

man, he's going to have to score a lot of touchdowns. And I don't see that happening with Cam Newton as his quarterback. Okay. But even that said, he was extremely unlucky and he had two touchdowns on 137 carries. And, uh, that's just why that's not unlucky that's the way the patriots were no no because because yeah that's a that's a lot for the most part though i think cam running backs playing with cam newton have had well below

average touchdown rates uh all right so dave mentioned six games with 15 or more or four games with 15 or more carries six games with 14 or more carries and in those six games he had one rushing touchdown james white had two cam dudon had six so i just think that they he was he was unlucky in that regard he had 10 extreme example green zone carries uh so inside of the 10 he had 10 green zone carries yeah that's nice it's a relatively low number for someone who ran the ball as much as he had i think there's like a two two sides of the coin on this one because we all coming into last season thought that sony michelle was just dust that he was just an a legitimately bad running back and he was just a legitimately bad running back. And he was just as efficient as Damian Harris last season. I didn't really think that.

The consensus. I think the consensus was that Sonny Michel was just not a very good player. He was just as efficient as Damian Harris. And I think you kind of get into, like, they were probably more efficient than they otherwise would have been because of Cam Newton and the threat of his running and the read option element

that makes running backs more efficient. But that, you know, being that it's Cam Newton next to them, it also means that their touchdown ceiling is going to be capped. And I think that's probably true if Cam Newton's the quarterback again, no matter who's running the ball for the Patriots. And if Mac Jones is the quarterback, I think they're probably not going to be as efficient running the ball.

So I think you kind of have to take the good with the bad on both sides. All right, well, let's get into the wide receivers now. And to our wide receiver tiers. And what we're going to do is Dave is going to kind of give his tiers, then Heath will kind of what we've been doing for the last couple days. And Chris will also say, oh, I like this guy in this tier, blah, blah, blah,

et cetera, et cetera. All right, so Dave, here we go. Your wide receiver tiers, your first round. Your first tier is what, about seven, eight players? At wide receiver, in PPR, we are looking at seven players. Okay. And define this tier and then tell me who's in it. Receivers that I'm comfortable taking in rounds one and two.

These are receivers that have double digit touchdown potential and or 100 catch potential. And I'm assuming that if a receiver has 100 catch potential and is listed in this type of a tier, he's going to have a good receiving average to go along with it. Here we go. None of these names are going to surprise anybody. Devontae Adams, Tyreek Hill, Stephon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Jefferson, Arthur Brown. Okay. AJ Brown, Adams Hill, Diggs, Ridley, Hopkins, Jefferson, Brown. And should we just say that Adams and Hill are in a separate tier or are they not? There might be a little bit of a groundswell for Stephon Diggs to crack that and make it a group of three. But I would imagine that in some form or fashion, those three receivers will be the first three receivers off the board in every single draft you encounter this year.

Okay, Heath? Yeah. I mean, they wouldn't be if I was drafting and the first two are gone, because I would take Hopkins over Diggs. But I have four in full PPR. I would put four in that first tier, and it would be Adams, Hill, Hopkins, and Diggs. In non-PPR, I would put, I think, all the guys that Dave said in the tier, and Brown and Ridley would jump over Hopkins and Diggs. In non-PPR, I would put, I think, all the guys that Dave said in the tier, and Brown and Ridley would jump over Hopkins and Diggs. So, yeah, I think the catches are such a big difference for three of those guys.

I don't really know that we're going to see A.J. Brown or Justin Jefferson approach the 110 catch mark like I think Hopkins and Adams and Diggs all can and nobody's Tyreek Hill or has been yet in terms of efficiency with that much volume. Okay, Chris, any disagreements here? For Dave, it was Adams, Hill, Diggs, Ridley, Hopkins, Jefferson, Brown. For Heath, his first year is only Adams, Hill, Diggs, and Hopkins.

Hopkins and Diggss i think i'm probably more on uh heath side and that i do think there is a a little bit of a drop off after the top four um i also put michael thomas in that tier that's not a surprise to anybody who's been listening um i'm very high on him but i do think you know once you get past that you know for me it's first five for Heath it's first four I do think there's a little bit of a drop off but not a significant one and like at some point if I have to project the Saints with Jameis Winston as a starting quarterback then Michael Thomas will be in that tier for me as well in the top five tier in the top seven eight tier

in the top he would be fifth in full PPR. Or, I don't know, he might even move ahead of Diggs, but he would definitely be top five if Jameis won the job convincingly. I'm getting just a little bit worried that it's going to be like a two-quarter rack system to begin the year. Which would be awful.

It would be so bad for fantasy. If only because predictability matter is so valuable. I would rather have Taysom Hill knowing that Michael Thomas' ceiling would be lower with him than Jameis rather than having them both because then I have no idea what would happen. I'll be very glad that I don't do projections if they go with a two-foot event system can i can i mention one thing about that because i i actually did this research today on michael

thomas his and this is just a yards per catch stat so very basic i didn't get too in depth with it but with tasem hill he had an 81 catch rate we've talked about that before this last year 11.4 yards per catch in very few targets from jamis he only caught one out of five targets from jamis say what you will about jamis when you see hear that stat uh 12 yards per catch bridgewater in 2019 62 targets 49 catches that's a 79 catch rate 12.2 yards per catch so his career yards per catch rate and this with breeze included in there anywhere from 11 to a little more than 12 yards per catch which is the same neighborhood that he was in with Bridgewater in 19, with Hill in 2020, with the one catch he caught from Jameis. So I don't know if that's, I wonder if we're overblowing this here. The accuracy of

the passes that he gets, I'm worried about that. But what he does with the football after the catch, I bet it ends up being right in line with what he's done over the course of his career yeah it's just volume for sure yeah i didn't really downgrade his efficiency all that much it's just that if tasem hill's the quarterback i assume they're going to run the ball 10 more than they will if jamis winston's quarterback and it's like a 30 target difference probably over the course of a season maybe more yeah you'll probably you might get some some of those rushing touchdowns that would ordinarily be thrown, but passing touchdowns if Hill's in there, you know, so that's probably a factor too, right? Would you project him for fewer touchdowns with Hill than Winston? Yeah, I think that's fair. Cause he's been a red zone touchdown magnet,

his entire career, 75% of his touchdowns have been in the red zone. Well, if you just like, I don't, I do it on percentages. If you say he's going to have a four and a half percent touchdown rate and it's four and a half percent of 160 targets or four and a half percent of 180 targets he's going to have more touchdowns with 180 targets yeah i've projected both for thomas with winston it's 121 catches 1400 yards nine touchdowns for hill it's a 107 catches 12 1,240 yards, seven touchdowns. So a not insignificant difference. But Heath, projections question, then we'll move on. You know, you say I do it on a percentage basis.

You give them a four and a half percent touchdown rate, 160 versus 180 targets. But do you also say, well, Jameis is going to throw more touchdowns than Taysom Hill? Yes. I would expect Jameis to throw more touchdowns than Taysom Hill.

I would adjust that after the fact. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Okay. All right. So I don't think whether or not, however you want to tier the first group,

I don't think there's any disputing Adams, Hill, Diggs, Ridley, Hopkins, Jefferson, and AJ Brown. Is he definitely a second round pick? He is for Dave. Is he a second round pick in PPR for Heath and Chris? He's right there. Yeah.

And I would... I don't think... We're doing a tier show. Let's just talk about the next tier. Okay. The order and who would be in that five through seven, I think we would debate,

but it doesn't... You're not going to freak out if you see him go at the end of round two, right? No. Right, right. Okay. So then Dave's second tier.

To me, average draft position or draft trends that i've seen kind of cuts it in half but dave's second tier go ahead dave i think all these guys are worthy of a round three pick we've got metcalf keenan allen terry mclaurin robert woods alan robinson this is where i have michael Michael Thomas followed by Amari Cooper and Julio Jones, eight names in round three. So yeah, I've got Ridley Brown, Jefferson and Metcalf in the second tier,

along with Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, Alan Robinson, Terry McLaurin. So I guess Woods and Amari Cooper are the two guys who don't make it into this tier for me. Is Julio in this tier for you? Did you say Julio?

No. Right, those were the three that jumped out to me. Not Thomas. I would say Thomas could actually be higher, depending on who you, you know, Chris would say that. But Robinson, Cooper, no, Woods no Woods Cooper and Julio Jones. I was surprised Dave that you put them in the same tier as Metcalf, Alan McLaurin, Michael Thomas, and then Alan Robinson.

I it's kind of like in the middle to me, but you know, and just based on, based on where I see him go in drafts, he's after Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin in NFC ADP. And just the general enthusiasm. And do these guys, who has a chance to be the number one wide receiver in fantasy? I think, you know,

I don't think you can really make that case for Robinson. Oh, are you kidding me? Absolutely not. He's got three seasons as a top 10 wide receiver with arguably the worst quarterback play in the history of a receiver's career. It ain't getting any better. If Justin Fields comes in

and is as accurate as a passer as he was in college, Alan Robinson could absolutely be a 15, 1,600-yard wide receiver with 12 to 15 touchdowns. That's so enthusiastic and optimistic. I think he could be, but I think there's kind of a double-edged sword here with the Bears quarterbacks as well because Andy Dalton's going to be the starter.

So if Andy Dalton plays, I mean, they might be lying. Allen Robbins has never played with him. I don't think there's that much of a difference between him and Trubisky and Foles at this point. Based on what we saw last year, based on what we saw the year before, like Dalton has played pretty poorly the last couple of seasons. I mean, I think Trubisky as like an asset to your football team because of his running and stuff, I could understand that.

But as a passer, I don't think Trubisky's very close. But maybe I'm wrong. All right. You know what? Look, Keenan Allen's probably not going to be wide receiver one, and Terry McLaurin's probably not going to be wide receiver one. So that's probably not really the best measure for this group. I think the Keenan Allen thing as well,

like if you look at Keenan Allen's healthy games with Justin Herbert last year, if he just does that again, he is wide receiver one. I don't think he's wide receiver one if he does that again this year. No, he was not wide receiver one. He wasn't even close to Devontae Adams. Right, right.

You need 20 PPR points per game if you're going to be the number one receiver. No, I agree with that. I wasn't projecting Devontae Adams to repeat last year. Okay. All right. You know what? Fine. I'm sorry I agree with that. I was projecting Devonta Adams to repeat last year. Okay. All right. You know what? Fine.

I'm sorry I brought that up. Let's take a closer look at this tier. And Dave, tell me why you have Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, and Julio Jones in the same tier

as Metcalf, Allen, McLaurin, Robinson, and Thomas. Well, again, this is probably a situation where it might be easier to break up the tier. I just don't like having tiers where it's like, I'll take these guys in the first half of round three, and then I'll take these guys in the back half of round three.

I try and avoid that. I think Metcalf, Allen, and McLaurin are head and shoulders above the rest of this group. That's why I have it ranked that way. Tier them. But I think that Robert Woods is worthy of a third round pick as well. I think Robinson is as well. All the other guys that I said, they're worthy of a third-round pick as well. I think Robinson is as well. All the other guys that I said, they're worthy of a third. It might be a late third, whereas the other three guys might be an early third.

I just like putting all the guys that I would have a third-round expectation for in the same tier. Woods is getting a fantastic quarterback. It's a huge upgrade for L.A. We've already seen him get a ton of targets in that offense. I think he's a do-it-all receiver. I think he could have a career year, actually, and have the best year of his career uh that's what that would mean what the hell am i saying amari cooper we've already seen his connection with

dac prescott well over 15 ppr points per game uh his sex rate his success rate hey now with is almost 60 percent that's pretty good for chemistry with those two, I'll tell you. And then Julio Jones. He's Julio Jones. He's great. His target share is going to go down in Tennessee, but I think his efficiency could be a little bit better, and he might be a little bit better in the red zone.

I mean, Julio Jones is one of the most efficient wide receivers of all time. I think it could be even better. He's been one of the, if not the most efficient quarterback in the NFL since he got to Tennessee. So, you know, I have both Jones and Brown as top 15 wide receivers. All right. Dave though,

has he said Metcalf, Metcalf, Allen and McLaurin are clearly ahead of the rest. Um, and I, I think Chris would obviously put Michael Thomas clearly ahead of them. And Heath, I have, I have Robert Woods ahead of them too.

Oh, wow. You have Robert Woods ahead of Metcalf, Allen, and McClure. Yep. Yeah, I just think that offense is going to be really, really good with Stafford. I think it's going to... The way they used Robert Woods the last couple of seasons, but adding on a little more downfield work

is going to make... you know, I think, I mean, he was number nine last season, I believe. So it's... 13. 13, yeah, okay. So it's not asking too much. And I think the one thing that gets overlooked with him is that role in the running game.

But he was 18th per game, I want to point that out. And he's been 14th through 18th per game, three straight seasons in PPR. Right. I think he's been 14th through 18th per game three straight seasons in ppr right i i think he's going to be better than that because because of the upgraded quarterback because of what i imagine will be a more aggressive downfield role than he's had he's a great playmaker with the ball in his hands we've seen that in the running game and in the short area passing him he's still going to have that uh but with you A-dot moving from, I think it was in the sixth range last season to maybe eight, I think that's just going to make him a much better player.

I also think defenses are going to play the Rams completely differently than what they've done in the past because of what they've got at quarterback. Now, defenses are going to respect the hell out of Matthew Stafford. And no one's drafting Deshaun Jackson for fantasy outside of best ball. But he's going to scare defenses too with his speed. So I think you're going to see Robert Woods. And then maybe somebody else will after week one. Maybe it's Tutu Atwell who does that.

I think that there's going to be plenty of room for Jones to improve his efficiency as well. He's been right around 15 PPR points per game each of the last three years, and that's with golf. Trying to keep this as a tiers discussion. Alright, so tell me because it's hard. We're talking about tiers without talking about the players. No, I want to speak

maybe a little bit more generally about the players, especially at wide receiver just because there are so many. But looking at tier three for Dave is Metcalf, Alan McLaurin, Woods, Robinson, Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper,

Julio Jones. For the record, this is my second tier. Not my third. Yeah, it was tier two. Oh, sorry.

It's round three. Round three. Yeah. Okay. And then round four, his third tier, Godwin, lamb,

Lockett, Evans cup, and more. What is it about, you know Lockett, Evans, Cup, and more. What is it about Woods, Cooper, Jones, Robinson that separates them from Godwin, Lamb, Lockett, Evans, Cup, and more? So I think the majority of the receivers that I have in the third tier, I feel like their ceiling is going to be right around 15 PPR points per game. And I think the ones in the tier above can exceed that. It's really what it comes down to.

Some of the receivers in the third tier could end up with 140 targets. Some of them, I think, might have to be more efficient, score a lot of touchdowns. I think that's absolutely the case for someone like Mike Evans. And for DJ Moore, I think the targets are going to have to be higher than 140. I think he's got to be in that 150 with Gus up to 155 and 160 and just load up on receptions. And again, for PPR, this is where he is. He wouldn't be in this tier and not in PPR.

Okay, so again, this fourth, third tier for Dave, round four is Godwin, Lamb, Lockett, Evans, Cup, DJ Moore. Heath, what are your thoughts there? I also have Lockett, Cup, and DJ Moore in my third tier. The only other two wide receivers in that tier are two guys that were in Dave's earlier,

Robert Woods and Julio Jones. I'd go Lockett, Woods, Jones, Cup, and Moore's there's now two wide receivers that have been in dave's top two tiers i think that i don't have in our top three tiers and it's lamb and cooper and i i guess that's probably because i have more targets for michael gallup or it's it one thing about it and it's kind of the same thing with the Buccaneers. I think when you come at it from the projections angle and you start cutting that pie up on an offense like this,

that has too many targets, you don't know which one of them is going to get hurt and miss four weeks and make the other guys hit their mark. But it's like, they can't all hit what you would like for the expectations to be for them. So that makes you a little bit lower for me, at least on Cooper lamb, Godwin Evans,

all those kinds of guys. It's interesting. All right, Chris, your thoughts here. We do have the Cowboys and the bucks wide receivers and the Rams wide receivers coming off the board. I do view Cooper and lamb in this range. I'm actually a little lower on the Buccaneers receivers

just because I do think there's even more competition for targets outside of just the top two wide receivers in Tampa. I think Antonio Brown, based on what we saw, could be a 1C in that offense based on what we saw over the second half of the season. He had almost eight targets per game, didn't of the season he had almost eight targets per game didn't he yeah no he was targets per game and if you include the playoffs you know that that mike evans you know didn't actually have like a super great play i think he averaged like 50 yards per game um so i just i kind of am avoiding that group of wide receivers evans and godwin in particular um other than that i I think Deontay Johnson is one name

who I would argue might be missing from this group. But that could just come down to a difference in whether you think he's going to clearly be the number one option in Pittsburgh like I do, or if you think like Tampa, like Dallas, it could be more of a top three situation. So Dave, then make the case for the Bucs or Cowboys or both wide receivers, why we shouldn't be too worried about how we slice the pie up, why they just are worthy of round three or four picks. Because you're taking pieces of offenses that figure to throw the ball quite a bit and record a lot of receiving touchdowns.

And especially in the case of Dallas, I don't know if we can really look at Gallup as a touchdown hog. Same thing with Blake Jarwin. The contenders here, as far as touchdowns go for Cooper and Lamb, it's Zeke and it's Dak doing what they do on the ground. I think that matters quite a bit, but I think there's enough passing volume to go around for both of these guys to be in, well, for Cooper to be higher than 15 PPR points per game, but for Lamb to get to 15 PPR points per game. Whereas in Tampa Bay, I think the best that you can get at receiver there is going to be Godwin in PPR. I love the fact that there were seven games that he was healthy for when Brady went off, 25 or more fantasy points.

And he had at least 15 PPR points in six of them, and he had 13 PPR points in each of them. So he's part of the recipe for Tom Brady, or at least last year, this is how it worked out. He was part of the recipe for Brady having a monster game. He was more consistent with that than any other pass catcher in Tampa Bay. I could see him staying right around the seven targets per game that he had. And I'd like to think that he can

get a little bit more involved in the red zone. But to me, it just comes down to getting a receiver who won't be double covered, won't necessarily be a downfield threat, will get a fair volume of targets and come through for a good amount of PPR points per week where you can reliably start them. That's Godwin. I'm so damn stressed about this group of wide receivers because last year I knew how much I loved the sophomore wide receivers and those were the guys I wanted to target here. But this year, I just think they're really tough decisions. Great players in these timeshare situations or a guy like DJ Moore who might be an elite player,

but he just can't get on an offense that throws a lot of touchdowns. So I want to ask you guys, after Metcalf, Allen, and McLaurin are off the board, and I'm going to say Allen Robinson too since he's the next one. He's only a few picks behind them. Who are the players that you continually target in rounds mostly four, maybe late

three, but mostly round four and into round five? I'll go first. I'll say Woods is one that I'm targeting. Cooper is one that I'm happy to draft. And then Lockett is the one that I keep going back and forth with because we

all know that his, his end of season numbers are great, but it's just such a roller coaster where one week it's 35 points in the next week. It's eight points. And some people might have a hard time dealing with that. If he's your number two receiver. Okay.

So you said Woods Cooper and Cooper would be at the top of the list for me. Oh, sorry, Heath. Lockett, Woods, and Cup. Chris? Woods, Cup. Julio Jones is part of this group, right? Yeah.

Julio Jones. Yeah, Woods, Cup, Jones is probably the three for me. And you'd have to add Michael Thomas in there for you too. He's already been... Right, I'm taking him at the end of the second or early third. He's 30th in ADP. He's wide receiver nine.

Okay. But that's NFC since June 1st is what I've been using. Okay, this is an obvious question. I'm going to ask it anyway. For Heath and Chris, you both said Cup and Woods. You just don't see them having that number three guy

like Dallas and Tampa Bay. That's the difference? I mean, who would it be? Some would say it would be Higby. Well, I would say that unlike Tampa Bay, they seem very committed to Cam Akers. I don't know what kind of run game the Bucs are going to have.

And I don't think Matthew Stafford's going to put up numbers that are resembling Tom Brady's. So there is that. The Bucs don't just have a number three guy. They have Rob Gronkowski, who was a top 10 tight end last year. Who do you like better, Higby or Gronk? Oh, Gronk. Really? Okay, because I think a lot of people are taking Higby.

Yeah, I mean, I like Howard better than Gronk, better higby or gronk oh gronk really okay because i think a lot of people taking higby yeah i i mean i like howard better than gronk but um it's not just that even like they've also gonna they're gonna throw 20 to 25 percent of their passes to running backs yeah because that's what tom brady always does like it's it's not i don't think the ram situation i'm not even sure the cowboy situation is completely comparable to tampa bays i don't think the Rams situation... I'm not even sure the Cowboys situation is completely comparable to Tampa Bay's. I don't think the Rams is particularly close. I view the Rams more like Seattle. Okay.

Cup is so interesting to me because one thing that you could really bank on until last year was touchdowns. Whereas Robert Woods, in his last four seasons, he's had one year with more than four green zone targets. Four targets inside the 10-yard line. He's had four, with more than four green zone targets, four targets inside the 10 yard line. He's had four, eight, four, and three or something like that. That's terrible. And he hasn't scored a lot of touchdowns. Cup on the other hand was golf's guy. So what

if that goes away? You know, we don't know what the patterns are going to be with Matthew Stafford. Um, I think it's as much about the usage, the way the the rams passing offense worked last season was why cups uh touchdowns were down so much he went from an 8.4 eight yard a dot in 2018 7.2 in 2019 6.0 in 2020 everybody really really hard to score touchdowns when you have to do all of the work which is you know that's partially why robert woods touchdown rate is relatively low as well, because he's often been used in this offense as, you know, more of a playmaker with the ball in his hands,

but cup, I mean, one, it's, he's been a really good touchdown guy in two out of his four seasons. That probably just tells me that he's a, a wide receiver who is going to fluctuate from year to year,

but I'll definitely take the over on three touchdowns. Heck, instead of the four, I'll take the over. Yeah, go on. I don't think he needs... If he gets the touchdowns as well, then he's a top 10 wide receiver i would say over the last three seasons his 16 game pace is 93 catches for 1108 yards so that's that's a number two wide receiver with bad touchdown luck where he's being drafted and the touchdowns are all gravy from there yeah

it's the yard we've also this is the point i just want to add on that the a dot for cup declined each of the last three seasons. It did for Woods as well. And the average depth of throw for Jared Goff also shrunk over the last year. It was 4.9 yards per throw last year. Think about that. He didn't even average five yards per throw. Yikes.

So I think that this is where efficiency can kick in. My favorite stat about Cup is an easy one. He was 11th in targets per game last year. Yeah. Okay. All right. So let's take a break on fantasy football today. Speaking of ADOTs,

we haven't gotten to the Steelers wide receivers yet. We did talk a little bit about Deontay Johnson, but he is first up in Dave's next tier. So when we come back, we will talk about Pittsburgh and many, many more. Still a lot of great wide receivers on the board. We'll be right back.

Whether in the game or in life, the right great wide receivers on the board. We'll be right back. giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year. Don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks. Before you break ground, make it a point to request a locate.

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and here we go Dave your next tier your round 5 tier which is tier 4 for you is Deontay oh you want to go through the names? Deontay Johnson Adam Thielen, Jamar Chase Chase Claypool

oh like before and after Wheel of Fortune Jamar Chase Claypool. Oh, like before and after Wheel of Fortune. Chase Claypool. Brandon Ayuk. Kenny Galladay. And Juju Smith-Schuster. Three Steelers. Three Steelers in the same tier. That's great.

I don't know if it's great. Describe this tier to me. These are receivers that have either got the potential to be top 15 to top 12 types, or they've demonstrated in the past that they've been top 12 types and should have volume to make them at least top 20 receivers this year. That's certainly the case for Johnson. I think Thielen we can say that for. If Chase is the number one receiver, I think we can say it for him. Ayuk, things kind of have to go right. His efficiency is going to have to spike in order for that to happen. Galladay could get good volume,

and I think Juju still gets good volume. These are receivers I feel comfortable with, especially as either taking a chance on them as a number two receiver, or just shrugging my shoulders and saying, okay, these guys should be good number two wide receivers. Heath, are we starting to see the last of the

group here of a tier? Because I'm looking at Dave's next tier. It's Sutton, Tyler Boyd, T. Higgins, Robbie Anderson, DJ Chark, Devante Smith. I see a ton more upside in this tier than the next one. Not everybody

is going to fit that description, but I still see potential stars here. What do you think? Yes. I mean, I think every time we go down a tier, there is less upside and less potential stars, hopefully. Right. I guess I see. Okay, fine. Then I'll say this. I see more of a drop between this tier and the next one. And this tier is, again, I know it's hard for people who aren't looking. Three Steelers wide receivers plus Thielen, Jamar Chase, Ayuk and Galladay. The following tier is Sutton, Boyd, Higgins, Robbie Anderson,

Chark and Devante Smith. I see more of a drop off between this tier and the next one than I do between the Godwin, Lockett, Evans, Cup, Lamb, DJ Moore tier. Do you agree with that? Well, no, because I've got players from Dave's last tier in this tier, and I've got players from Dave's next tier in this tier. Yeah, this does make a difference. So I don't at all.

All right. I mean, okay, Chris. Zen diagrams all over the place. Historically, this is where the drop-off is, though. Between the fourth and fifth round, 29 out of 49 receivers drafted in the fourth or fifth round over the last five years have scored 200-plus points. 29 out of 49, so right around 60%.

Sixth through eighth rounds, 13 out of 66 have scored 200-plus points. So this is where you start to get to the you're looking more for like 10, 12, 13 fantasy points per game rather than the really, really big. I was on to something, Chris. Thank you for backing

me up there. And I think when you think about, I think this is worth thinking about with the Buccaneers, Steelers, Cowboys,engals um maybe the best way to view them is none of them are likely to be consistent week-to-week performers and you can use that as an argument against any of them but i think you can also say that in these high volume passing offenses with a lot of targets the weekly upside could be massive and you'll have to live with the up and downs i think you can also say the same for for seattle with metcalf and lockett lower target volume overall but only two guys um you know you can

use that as an argument for or against i know some people really hate the inconsistent, big, uh, big upside weekly wide receivers. But you know, if you're looking for like your number three or your flex wide receivers, those kinds of guys who can hit in a big way on any given week, uh, that can be really, really valuable because they can be weak winners for you. I know that it certainly makes sense to think the Cowboys and the Bengals and the Bucks are going to be high volume passing offense. Are we convinced that the Steelers will be? I mean, with Ben Roethlisberger and their center, they have as much historical evidence as anyone.

Yeah. Just the Najee Harris thing, that's all. Yeah, I think that that could hurt and i i've said this before i think the offensive line is going to force rothlisberger to get rid of the ball really quickly all right he i'm sorry dave heath you mentioned that you have some players you know how do you view this tier with three stealers stealing chase you can go all day who's in there like tell me your thoughts. Yeah, I've got two Cowboys, two Steelers, two Bucs. So I've got Amari Cooper, Jamar Chase, Deontay Johnson, CeeDee Lamb, Juju, Godwin, Thielen, Galladay, Evans,

and I'll put Robbie Anderson in there too. Oh, interesting. Go ahead, make your case for Robbie Anderson. last year with the worst touchdown luck of his career being ranked in that place again this year i i think that the bucks are still going to throw the ball a ton mccaffrey's going to come back and take some targets panthers but they threw it to mike davis yeah they threw it to mike davis a ton last year too and terrence marshall can just fit into the curtis samuel target role if he's ready for that i don't know that there's a big reason to expect a big target decline for Anderson, and I do expect his touchdowns to bounce back.

And he has the double familiarity bonus of he played for the coach in college and played with the quarterback on the Jets. Yeah, I think part of it is just how much different his role was last season and whether that's going to sustain. If he's a 10 ADOT guy versus a 15 ADOT guy like he was the previous two seasons with the Jets,

you should expect a lower touchdown rate than he had because he's going to have fewer big plays. But not three on 136 targets. Sure, sure. But he had five and six on 94 and 96 when he was a big play guy. That's an above average rate. That's over 5%. I would guess for receivers with a 15 ADOT, that's below average. But I don't have that in front of me.

It's behind you. But part of it is he is familiar with Sam Darnold, the bad quarterback who's going to be starting for the Panthers, who kept his touchdown rate relatively low in that role. I think for Anderson and Moore, it just depends on whether you believe that offense can take a step forward and really whether you believe that Sam Darnold can go from arguably the worst starting quarterback in football to 23rd. I think that would go a long way.

Do you think the offense, like where we're talking about tiering and drafting DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson, I'm not sure the offense needs to take a step forward. We need it to not suck. Right. You need it to not take a step back, and I think it's more likely it takes a step back than takes a step forward. And that's the thing I'm not sure of, is that this offense did well with Teddy Bridgewater last year. It got what it got. I don't know if we can say it did well with Teddy Bridgewater and without Christian McCaffrey. Now McCaffrey, hopefully, fingers crossed, plays a lot more than he did last year. And Darnold's under center. Is Darnold better or worse than Teddy Bridgewater?

The Panthers already told you what they think. Yeah. I mean, that gives me some optimism, but yeah, I, I, I gotta go after this guys,

but I think Robbie Anderson is going to be kind of like a, a cheaper version of Chris Godwin in that he can be a reliable starter weekend and week out. He gave you at least 15 PPR points in half of his games last year. And he's just going to be like a, a nice volume receiver who does have that positive regression touchdown upside that could make him a top 15-ish type of receiver

if things go his way near the end zone. Yeah, I just don't know about him being reliable week in, week out. That's just never what he's done. That's Robbie Anderson in a nutshell. Last year, he did it better than he ever has before. Yeah, and then he completely fell off toward the end of the year. He wasn't as good as he was earlier in the year.

His last 11 games, he was on pace for 86 catches, 883 yards, and three touchdowns on 131 targets. The only thing that's good there is the catches. That's why you're drafting him. 99 or more yards. But that's never been Robbie Anderson.

One thing that has been Robbie Anderson throughout his career is great stretches followed by bad stretches. Consistency has not been Robbie Anderson's thing. And he was getting outplayed by Curtis Samuel last year, you know, toward the end. It is weird to think that that offense had three top 30 wide receivers last year. Yeah, that's the thing. We're not asking Robbie Anderson to be any top 30 wide receivers last year. That's the thing. We're not asking Robbie Anderson

to be any better than he was last year. But if you draft him there, you do want him to be better. You want to get the guy who's top 12 or top 15. You don't want to draft a 20. I took wide receiver 28 because he's going to be the wide receiver 24. What was he last year? Maybe I'm just being an idiot

and he was much better. No, he was wide receiver 20. What was he? There's was, he was wide receiver 20. Uh, what was he? He could, there's no way he was wide receiver 41. That must've been a non PPR. 20. It was wide receiver 20 total scoring.

Okay. Yeah. I mean, that's the thing. 25, 26. Okay. All right.

Uh, Dave, Dave left. Okay. Nevermind. Dave, you can go now. Dave had to go. Okay. So I. Dave, you can go now. Dave had to go.

Okay, so I don't know about you. I'm still very excited taking wide receivers at this point in the draft. You know, the Steelers guys, Chase, Galladay, you know, whoever it is. Yeah, I think my ideal approach this year is third through seventh round, I'm getting four wide receivers.

Maybe five. Not a bad idea. Especially in the three wide receiver league. Let's go to Dave's next tier, which has Robbie Anderson in it. Cortland Sutton, Tyler Boyd, T. Higgins, Robbie Anderson, DJ Chark, and Devante Smith. Yeah, it's almost exactly the same for me.

I've got Boyd, Chark, Ayuk, Higgins, Brandon Cooks, and Sutton. The one guy we haven't got to yet is Brandon Cooks, and he is impossible to know what to do with. But I still kind of think, if you tell me I have to get through 17 games of Terod Taylor and Davis Mills, I'm not sure if Cook stays healthy. He's going to be worse than wide receiver 32.

I don't really get why people are so low on him. They're going to be the worst thing, probably the worst defense in football. And he's the only good wide receiver they have. Come on. It makes too much sense. Right. It makes too much sense right makes too much sense yeah and it's not like you should necessarily

assume a lower pass volume with tyrod than they would have had with watson because you know they never threw the ball that much this this has not generally been a high volume pass offense partially partially because their quarterback gets sacked all the time. And so, yeah, I think Cooks is going to have a really, really healthy target share. I think he's going to be 25%-ish. I think he's a good value here, regardless of what happens. Well, as I look at this tier, Sutton, Boyd, Higgins, Anderson, DJ Chark, Devante Smith, I know it's not the same for Chris and Heath, but what now what's the level of excitement to draft wide receivers? I'm more excited about the next tier,

but that's just kind of personal taste. But generally speaking, I'm still relatively excited about wide receivers in this range. Yeah. I think you can talk yourself into like it's not you want to talk about potential top 12 upside it's it's not that difficult to talk yourself into top 12 upside for me at least in higgins sutton shark or cooks like those guys have all either shown it or easily have it my only concern with Shark is that that could be

the worst of those jumbled wide receiver cores. It could be similar to Tampa where there's no real number one, but it could be a much worse offense. He could be third or fourth in targets too.

There's no floor. I have Shark, And so he could be third or fourth in targets too. Like, right. Like there's no floor. Yeah. I have him chart. I have shark Chanel and Marvin Jones. I think within like nine targets of each other in my projections. Right. Quick pause here. I want to tell everybody that the open championship has arrived.

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i wanted to congratulate salvador perez on his second place finishing the home run derby awesome performance from the winner but salvi was really fantastic i believe he finished tied for eighth he was second no one hit more home runs in a round than he did, except for the winner. He was the first loser. I believe the best catcher performance in the first round of a home run derby ever.

Well, it was, of course, field, Heath. So, congratulations, Salvi. I am the best fantasy football analyst of my high school graduating class. As well. So. Okay, here's round seven. There's no guarantee that that's true.

I don't know what you guys think about this tier. Brandon Cooks, Marquise Brown, Will Fuller, Jerry, Judy, and Curtis Samuel. Brandon Cooks, Marquise Brown. Oh, you love this tier. Okay, Fuller, Judy, and Curtis Samuel. We've completely reached the point of just breaking off where there's no similarity whatsoever. What do you mean?

Yeah, that makes sense. Chris loves this tier. I don't know if I have any of the same players in this tier. Did you say Antonio Brown? No, I said Marquise Brown. Antonio's in the next tier. I'd much rather have Antonio Brown than Marquise Brown. I think we've also reached the point where

you probably don't have to worry about tiers and rankings. You take your guy. Yeah. At this point, going forward. I'm not going to take Amari Rogers in round seven. Did he say Debo Samuel? No. He is in...

He's two tiers back. Solid backups. Yeah, I think Debo Samuel should be... I would have Devante Smith, both the samuels debo and curtis antonio brown and chase claypool oh so you're much lower on claypool yeah yeah same um i might actually i think i did the steelers preview the other day i think i'm the lowest of the four of us in my ranking of chase claypool. He's 43 for me. I think he's like 38 or something for you. 38.

Yeah. Good for memory. I, I've got a good memory. Um, I don't, uh, I really love Curtis Samuel.

I think there are questions about how they're going to use him, but if they do use him anyway, similar to the way the Panthers did last season, then I have a hard time seeing why they wouldn't. Cause it was a really effective part of his game. I think he can get into that number two wide receiver discussion. I really like Curtis Samuel. You've got a type.

What's that? You like Devo Samuel more than Brandon Iyuk. Well, I like those guys all more than the consensus, but I also think partially it's because to a certain extent, maybe they're rushing production doesn't get factored in. It's kind of viewed as, oh, well you can't,

but it's like if Curtis Samuel gets an extra 25 points from the running game, which would be fewer than he had last season, I believe that's, that's, that's valuable in a way that doesn't necessarily get appreciated, I think. For sure. What I am unsure about, and with Woods I feel more comfortable

because it's happened multiple times. And Tyreek, it's happened basically every year of his career but one. I am unsure about how many years of rushing production we need from a wide receiver before we should expect rushing production from a wide receiver. No, that's fair. I mean, Samuel has 130 yards in 2019, 200 in 2020. So I feel pretty confident about that.

But he's going to a new team, so you just don't know what they're going to do. But he is going to the same coaching staff that used him in the running game two years ago. And he had 84 rushing yards and two touchdowns in 2018 as well, and only 13 games. And he had a much smaller role in the offense as well. So I do think that's pretty assured. Debo's a little harder to say. He did have eight carries in seven games last season. I'm not expecting these guys to get five carries a game. It's like one or two.

But with Debo, he's so good with the ball in his hands, and he's such a good runner. And that offense is so good at scheming it up that he might only need one to score a 25-yard touchdown. Yeah, but you have to start him. That's the problem I have with this. You have to start him to get that production, which I know sounds obvious.

But when it's very difficult to predict a rushing touchdown, you know what I mean? It's like, I just feel like there are going to be games where he has a rushing touchdown, he was on your bench. It's not the kind of role that you can bank on. Right, but your draft is a number three wide receiver at best. When you guys played college football, Chris recruited the offensive weapons a lot more

heavily than Adam. No, but I really like this tier in general because I really like Will Fuller. I think he is going to be the number one wide receiver in Miami. I think there's just a lot of upside in this tier.

Okay, next group is I mean, definitely see some names here that still have some serious upside beckham antonio brown michael pitman jaylen waddle marvin jones ty hilton jarvis landry and lavisca chenault two jaguars two colts plus beckham antonio brown jaylen waddle and oh and two browns i guess two browns Browns, two Colts, two Jaguars, plus Antonio Brown and Waddle? Is that how it's broken down? Yeah, how about that?

Yeah, I think this is where you stop feeling good about any of these guys as a starter. As a starter, right. This is where you're drafting your fifth wide receiver, hopefully, from this group, and there's a mixture of upside and security here. you're drafting your fifth wide receiver, hopefully, from this group. There's a mixture of upside and security here. It's just a lot of questions about roles. I think that's the biggest thing with this tier.

We don't know where Marvin Jones and LaVisca Chenault are going to fall in the hierarchy. I think either of them could be the number one wide receiver for the Jaguars. We don't know Antonio Brown. It wouldn't shock me if he was the number one wide receiver for the Buccaneers. Hilton or Pittman, it wouldn't shock me. Waddle, we just don't know. I'm a little lower on him than consensus because I think he's going to be a smaller part of the offense. But if he was the number one wide receiver for Miami, wouldn't be surprising at all. Okay. And then after that, it's Debo. It's the next group. Solid

backups. This was high-end backups. This is now solid backups. Debo, Samuel, Gallup, Darnell Mooney, Devontae Parker, Rager, Russell Gage, Paris Campbell, PPR only. Mike, I don't know, PPR specifically here. I don't know about only. Mike Williams,

John Brown. Heath, is there a lot less upside in this group than there was in the other? I mean, what separates this group of Debo, Gallup, Mooney, Devante Parker, Rager, Russell Gage, Paris Campbell, Mike Williams, John Brown? From the previous group of Beckham, Antonio Brown, Pittman, Waddle, Marvin Jones, Hilton, Landry, Chennault? Personal preference is what separates them, really.

I mean, like I was saying earlier, I would much prefer Debo Samuel to any of the other names you just said. I'd prefer Debo Samuel to Chase Claypool. And I think it's reasonable to be on either side of that. But the ones that I have a hard time getting

excited about in this range, John Brown and especially Paris Campbell. And maybe that's just because I'm going to have to see it first after two years of not being able to stay healthy or playing, but I don't think it's going to be a particularly good pass offense anyway. And it appears the best-case scenario is he's the third option in the passing game. I believe, just for some context, I believe Debo Samuel is wide receiver 48 for Dave. I think that's the third option in the passing game i believe just for some context i believe debo samuel is wide receiver 48 for dave i think that's the point we're at so these this is clearly

wide receiver four wide receiver five range so you're talking bench players even in your three wide receiver leagues um and i think there's there's upside with all of them um like heath i think paris campbell's probably the hardest to see it with and john brown i mean we saw it with nelson agalor i do think john brown's a better player than nelson agalor but i don't think what nelson agalor did was sustainable last season um my favorite in this group might be mike williams well debo samuel but then mike williams i'm starting to really talk myself into Mike Williams um I don't think he's actually going what's that that's never gone poorly no no well the thing weird thing is he's been one of those guys who has showed the ability to be a red zone monster

he showed the ability to be a a high yardage big play guy and he just hasn't done them in the same season right um I don't think they're actually going to use him as Michael as the Michael Thomas a high yardage, big play guy, and he just hasn't done them in the same season. Right. I don't think they're actually going to use him as the Michael Thomas of this offense, despite the quotes from Lombardi, but I think he's super talented. I think that could be a really good offense. I think this is a situation

where you can get a really cheap piece of what should be a very good offense with a guy who's clearly the number two non-running back receiver and could just be the number two option in the passing game. Yeah, I think he's likely to be number three, but I think the tight end targets probably go down. I also think this is a good place to start talking about guys like Terrace Marshall, Mecole Hardman, Henry Ruggs,

Rondale Moore, Elijah Moore, Elijah Moore, and from what Adam's extensive research showed us, you get to this range, you're in the double-digit rounds, you should only be drafting rookies. You should just draft all of the rookie wide receivers because we don't

ever get good wide receivers after round 10 except for rookies. Is that what my research showed? That's what it showed. I mean, you should probably probably just be drafting quarterbacks at this point anyway. But yeah, if there were a year to just take shots on rookie wide receivers, it might be this one. We thought it was a good rookie wide receiver class. And you didn't even mention Amari Rogers, but I.

Ross Brown. Yeah, I could take him, too. I just took Amari Rodgers in the Scott Fish Bowl, baby. So, yeah, the rookies will come off the board at this point, too. All right, it's a fun position. It's a loaded position. Check out FFT in five. We're going to talk about wide receivers there as well.

Maybe some things that we missed on this show, even though this was an hour and ten minutes. Thanks to Dave, to Heath, and Chris. I'm Adam, and we will talk to you tomorrow with tight end tears on Fantasy Football Today.