Fantasy Football Today - WRs #30-#35! Any Studs Here? Godwin, Flowers, McLaurin, Nabers, Reed and Marquise Brown (07/09 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 9, 2024

If you support the show, please nominate Fantasy Football Today for The People's Choice Podcast Awards in the "Sports" Category: https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup/ Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Each year we get about four wide receivers drafted in Rounds 7-9 who end up as Top 24 players at the position. In some cases, we get studs like Mike Evans in 2023. So who will it be this season? Before we get into that topic, we'll go through some news and notes (3:05) and give you stats on Calvin Ridley (7:45), Chris Olave and Stefon Diggs (9:50) ... Quick questions about six WRs (14:30): Chris Godwin, Zay Flowers, Terry McLaurin, Malik Nabers, Jayden Reed and Marquise Brown. Then we talk pros, cons and Fantasy outlooks for Godwin (16:00), Flowers (22:40) and McLaurin (32:00) ... Moving on to Reed (37:50), Brown (44:25) and Nabers (52:50). Is Brown the best Chiefs WR? Can Reed get on the field enough? Is Nabers talented enough to overcome his quarterback play? ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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wide receivers 30 through 42 in the PPR consensus rankings. Now, these guys won't necessarily be drafted in rounds 7 through 9 because some of them are going a lot higher, some of them may be lower. But typically, this range of receiver 30 through 42 is about rounds 7 through 9. It's just that this is rankings, not ADP. Anyway, some of the guys we're going to be talking about, Chris Godwin, we're a lot higher on him than ADP. Zay Flowers, we're a lot higher on him than ADP.

Zay Flowers, we're a lot lower than him on ADP. Terry McLaurin, Malik Neighbors, Jaden Reed, and Marquise Brown. Those are the six that we're going to get to today. Godwin, Flowers, McLaurin, Neighbors, Reed, and Brown. And we'll also get to Dave Richard, Jamie Eisenberg, and hopefully Heath Cummings. Hello, Dave Richard. Adam, I wanted to give you the names of some players who are not wide receivers that are going in between round seven and nine to think about as we talk about the wide receivers. And if you don't like the names I'm about to give you, then you should probably draft players at those positions sooner than round seven,

or maybe in the case of quarterback after. Running backs that are going in round seven through nine, DeAndre Swift, Tony Pollard, Raheem Mostert, Zach Moss, James Conner. I don't think that'll stay that way, but that's where he's at right now. Ramondre is a round seven through nine running back. Nick Chubb is a round seven through nine running back. Eckler, Brian Robinson, Javante Williams. I'll just stop there.

So if some of those names made you queasy, you should probably look for a running back earlier. Quarterbacks, Jordan Love on down. If you look at anybody's rankings, you'll see the guys who are on down tight ends. Kittle is in this range. Evan Ingram is in this range, and this is full PPR. And Bowers is in this range. So a lot of wide receivers are going to go here, and some of them should outperform their ADP.

It's up to us to figure out which ones are the best ones to take that risk on. Yeah, that list of running backs didn't actually sound so bad, but the list of wide receivers doesn't sound so bad either. But I think I don't really know yet which are using CBS PPR ADP. That's our ADP, off-season ADP. Yeah, I mean, if you look at fantasy pros and I think even some other, like maybe draft sharks,

seems like pretty heavy on wide receiver early. So this range, you might have a better, you might be looking at wide receiver 32 versus RB 25 or something like that. We could probably easily look that up, but you might be deeper into the wide receiver pool than the running back pool at that point in the draft. Yeah.

Hi, Jamie. Hey. And he should be here as well. He's working on a camera issue. I'm going to just read some quick news and notes and then we'll have some stats to give. Joe Burrow is learning the piano and that is helping his wrist rehab.

So rock on, Joe Burrow. Brandon Ayuk seems to really like Washington and Pittsburgh. If he's not on the Niners, it seems like he'd like to be on Washington, reunite with Jay Daniels. It might break the internet if he goes to Pittsburgh. Why? How so? Because everybody thinks he looks like mike tomlin uh yeah stop getting your action i think he'd be happy to go to any team that pays

him yeah but he keeps talking about those teams well washington is obvious because he's played with jayden daniels right they're buds and and they uh're friends. So that would be interesting. And Pittsburgh is interested in him and might consider paying him. And that's why he's like, yeah, Pittsburgh, let's go. Yeah. If there was a team in Alaska that was going to make him a top five highest paid wide receiver, he'd be like, all right, Alaska, baby. Igloo me.

Igloo me. Yeah, so Tyler Higbee could start the season on the pup list for the rams does that open up any sleeper tight ends yes yes yeah colby parkinson was a weird ad that the rams made this off season it's interesting between him and davis allen who's going to be the guy that yeah i i think allen got the opportunity just because they didn't have anybody else. They seem to really like Parkinson's skill set. And the week one matchup should be a high scoring game against Detroit. That's who they play.

At Detroit, then at Arizona. I mean, there's going to be better tight end streamers, but like Parkinson's on my queue in Scott Fishbowl. Yeah. That tight end premium league. He's somebody that I will look for. I think any tight end with a pulse is on everybody's queue and Scott Fishbowl. Yeah. But yeah, but when we're doing the draft, I talked about this on a previous show.

We were doing the draft on Monday, on Sunday night. I just, man, once I get past like maybe Pat Friermuth, I feel like I don't want any. I don't know. It doesn't feel great. Take some chances. We know what to look for from tight ends with targets. If it's somebody who's got a glimmer of hope of being a second on the team in targets, might get some red zone touchdowns,

you go after him a little bit. The four guys that I look for late past Fryer move, because he's borderline top 12 guy, are Tyler Conklin, Ben Sinnott, Juwan Johnson, and Hunter Henry. Henry's a great one. I'm not touching Juwan Johnson, because who knows when he'll be back from his foot injury. Oh, he's supposed to be back by camp.

I think along the Sinnott range, too. Zach Ertz might be a from his foot injury. Oh, he's supposed to be back by camp. I think along the Senate range, too, Zach Ertz might be a week one streamer. Yes. As long as Zach Ertz stays healthy, he's probably going to see more targets than we would like. Sure. Noah Fant is another one. Yep.

Do we even... I can't even say it. Never mind. I don't even want to say his name. I don't want to put that name in people's mind. All right, guys. So let me just say this. One more note. Chris Godwin's want to say his name. I don't want to put that name in people's mind. All right, guys. So let me just say this one more note. Chris Godwin's going to play more in the slot,

according to Greg Allman of Fox Sports. We've heard this a while during the offseason, and that's a good thing. He played in the slot 33% of his snaps last year, which was about half of what he did the year before. We want more Chris Godwin in the slot. We're going to get more Chris Godwin in the slot. And yes, actually just looking at CBS ADP right now, CBS PPR ADP,

which I think is pretty damn good ADP if you ask me. When you get to the 70s, when you get to pick 72-ish, we are talking 32 wide receivers off the board, 22 running backs off the board. So in this range of wide receiver, you know, you might actually like the running backs better at this point in the draft because wide receivers are going earlier in full PPR. Podcast Awards, where else are you going to hear analysis like that, right? We rule. Go to podcastawards.com and vote for Fantasy Football today.

Nominate Fantasy Football today for the sports category and if you want want the people's choice category as well, it takes two seconds. No, I don't want to two seconds is an exaggeration. It takes about 40 seconds. I would say, I think you can make this happen to go to podcast awards.com and nominate fantasy football today.

We will be your best friend if you nominate us and then get us to the next round. Hopefully we'll win this year. We've been so close. This is the year we want to win the sports category or the people's choice award on podcastawards.com please sign up now and vote we did some some calvin okay this seriously just a couple minutes on this because we spent so much time talking about ridley yesterday but we didn't have heath on and he is obviously the high guy on ridley uh we didn't love him in terms of where he was in the consensus ranking.

Man, I'm getting hate tweets from people. I'm like, I wasn't even on the show. I know. Telling me, I'm going to regret being so low on Calvin Ridley. I'll tell you, I might regret something about Calvin Ridley this year. It won't be being too low on him. It's possible I'll regret being too high on him, but I think

I'm the only reason he was on that show on Friday because I've got him ranked as a top 20 wide receiver. And the tweets kind of made the points that I probably would. Like, I think this is going to be a pretty high volume pass offense in Tennessee. We've already heard talk that he will be playing the Jamar Chase role in this offense. I expect him to be the most targeted wide receiver. And there were plenty of reasons that you could think his production is going

to be better than it was last year. One would be, maybe he will just be standing in bounds instead of out of bounds on the five end zone targets that he messed up last year. He also, I believe led the NFL and pass interferences drawn or was towards the very top. That was the stat I was going to give.

That was the stat. Often a very good indicator of lost fantasy points to things that are beyond your control. And I think there's a decent chance that the Tennessee Titans throw for more passing yards and touchdowns than Jacksonville did last year. All right. It was 136 yards in pass interference penalty yards that he drew, which led the NFL. And I want to give at MM underscore 13 underscore credit for that one, for yelling at me, for being too low on Cal Ridley, which I don't necessarily agree with. But he did the pass interference thing was interesting because I think Chris, you know, I wasn't able to back this up. I don't really know where to get reliable pass interference stats i mean i found a couple websites but uh i don't know if they're totally

legit but the ridley thing is legit but two years ago chris kept saying that mike evans he was having this bad year and he was drawing a lot of pass interference penalties and then he was one of the best picks in fantasy in 2023 stat of the day number two i want to look at a few wide receivers here and then we'll get to the meat of the show i two, I want to look at a few wide receivers here, and then we'll get to the meat of the show, I promise, who did really well or really poorly on deep balls, and two guys who were just awful on deep balls last year, Stefan Diggs and Chris Olave. Air yards, 30 or more air yards. Stefan Diggs had two catches for 84 yards and no touchdowns on 12 targets of 30 or more air yards. Chris Olave was even worse, two catches for 75 yards and no touchdowns on 12 targets of 30 or more air yards.

Chris Olave was even worse. Two catches for 75 yards and no touchdowns on 16 targets of 30 or more air yards. And Diggs, I don't know if anyone cares about this, but Dave, I sent you the videos, you know. I thought Josh Allen was awful on those throws. I thought Diggs could have had an extra 300 yards and three touchdowns. I mean, that might be off a little bit, but I'm serious. He had a lot of meat on the bone.

He was getting so open. And Josh Allen was terrible on these deep throws. I don't know if that matters, but it certainly did not help Stephon Diggs' stats last year. The takeaway for me, there were two. You said one of them. The other one is that Stephon Diggs was still getting open. He has some great double moves, these post-corner routes, corner post routes, both of them working in his favor,

that he's buying two, three yards of separation from a defensive back. In a couple of the cases, he just ran past guys. He still has speed, still has agility, and now we're adding him into Houston. C.J. Stroud, a basic stat, okay? Completion rate of throws of 30-plus air yards. One of the top three quarterbacks was Derek Carr, 48.1%. C.J. Stroud was 11th with 33%.

Josh Allen, 18th, 26.7% completion rate on throws of 30-plus air yards. Allen was off on a lot of those throws. I don't know if this is a new thing for Allen. I don't know if this is something that he's always done, but we do know that deep accuracy was an issue for him earlier in his career. It wasn't a pass rush thing. There weren't plays where he was about to get smashed and he just had to get rid of the ball.

I wonder if this is something that Houston will try and bake into Stefan Diggs' role in 2024. And if it is, then Diggs is going to have a pretty decent year because Stroud proved that he could hit those deep throws. One of the weirdest things, Olave, like I said, air yards, 30 or more air yards. Olave, two catches for 75 yards on 16 targets. Rashid Shahid, nine catches, 408 yards, four touchdowns on 15 targets. Rashid Shahid, nine catches, 408 yards, four touchdowns on 15 targets. I haven't really looked, but I think there's a chance that

Shahid was the best in the NFL on deep throws. If we say 30 or more yards is a deep throw, and Olave was the worst. MVS exists. I'm going to look it up right now. I actually think I could tell you. Yeah.

Valdez, Scantling. Was he on here? I don't even see him on here. I don't know. How many targets did he have last year? Too many. Yeah. Well, yeah.

Okay. Let's go to a commercial break. And when we come back, we'll talk about Godwin, Flowers, McLaurin, Neighbors, Reid, Marquise Brown. We'll be back right after this on Fantasy Football Today. Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca.

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i i don't believe that's really bad. I don't believe that's because Patrick Mahomes was terrible on those throws last year. Probably not. Marquis Brown is also terrible. One catch for 36 yards on 10 targets. We're about to talk about him. All right. Let's focus on the show here. So if we look at just these six guys, Godwin Flowers, McLaurin, Neighbors,

Jaden Reed, Marquise Brown. Who has the most upside in this group? Neighbors. Malik Neighbors. Neighbors. Who has the highest floor in this group?

Godwin. Godwin. I think it probably, I'm going to say Terrylurin just so we don't give the same answer for all three but it's him hold on i think that could be ppr versus non-ppr i wouldn't say godwin if it's non-ppr okay mcclurin or re Reed would probably be my answer if it's a non-PPR. I'll say Reed. Interesting. Most downside. Again, just so people, if you're having trouble following. Godwin, Flowers, McLaurin, Neighbors, Jaden Reed, Marquise Brown.

Most downside. Neighbors. Reed. Reed. Player you draft a lot. Godwin. Maybe McLaurin. I wouldn't say I draft any of them a lot,

but Godwin the most, probably. Player you draft. Player you avoid. Flowers. I haven't drafted him once. McLaurin. I haven't drafted him once. McLaurin. I haven't drafted neighbors once. Is that because he's just not falling to you, Heath?

We're going to talk a lot about Malik neighbors, but yeah, that's part of it. I think his ADP is like 24th overall. Or 24th wide receiver, not 24th overall. Yeah, and Flowers is 23. So, is there anyone in this group,win flowers mclaurin neighbors reed brown that any of you are do we have like a calvin ridley where one of you is super high

on one of these guys or super low on one of these guys i'm super low on neighbors compared to everyone else i believe everyone i think every other player within like 30 to 42, I was within four or five spots of consensus except for neighbors. Okay. So then we can really compare these guys to ADP. Where do you have neighbors by the way? Heath 42. Okay. And he's 33 in the consensus ADP.

Uh, Godwin is 30th and he's 38th and I'm sorry, consensus rankings. Uh, Godwin is 30th and he's 38th in ADP. Flowers is 31st in the rankings. He's 23rd in ADP. McLaurin is 32nd in the rankings.

He's 35th in ADP. Neighbors is 33rd in the rankings. He's 24th in ADP. Jaden Reed is 34th in the rankings, 31st in ADP. And Marquise Brown, 35th in the rankings, 36th in ADP. So you'll notice there, Godwin were eight spots higher than his ADP. Flowers were eight spots lower than his ADP. Neighbors, consensus, were nine spots lower than his ADP. Heath is almost 20 spots lower than Neighbors' ADP. So those are the three discrepancies, biggest ones.

We'll start with Chris Godwin. Jamie, give me one or two pros and cons for Chris Godwin. The last five games of the season last year, he had more targets than Mike Evans, and he's moving back in the slot. That's the pro. The con is that he is allergic to the end zone and has struggled post-Tom Brady. Yeah.

From 2018 through 2020, Chris Godwin had 23 total touchdowns in those three seasons. He had 21% of his team's touchdown catches last three years. He has 10 touchdowns in his last three years and he has 10% of his team's touchdown catches. That's with 18 more red zone targets than he had the previous three years and the same amount of green zone targets, but nine fewer red zone targets.

Is there anything we could do about this? One thing I have noticed is that his ADOT has been a lot lower, and there is a little bit of a correlation between ADOT and touchdowns, I think, but is he just a low touchdown guy, or do you think he can get back to the 7-9 range that he was, Chris Godwin, from 2018 to 2020. It'd be a little tough to say that that's something you want to hang your hat on, that he's going to all of a sudden go back to becoming a more consistent or a higher volume touchdown type of player. But, you know, certainly it's possible, you know, Mike Evans loses a

touchdown or two and they go in Godwin's direction. You direction. We'll see with maybe more for Trey Palmer, the addition of Jalen McLaughlin. McMillan, what am I doing? Come on. Was there a trade we didn't know about? Jalen McMillan, excuse me. And Kate Odden, guys that I think have an opportunity to play in this offense and be successful. Those guys will take away a little bit from everybody. everybody. And, and obviously, you know, what,

what they'll do with not just Rashad White, but addition of Bucky Irving. So there's, there's a lot of mouths to feed here. And, you know, you're asking Baker to continue to, you know, I think ascend, um, as opposed to level off or go backwards. And we've seen what happens or has at least this happened to one situation, but when Dave Canales has left the team, you know, the, the passing game and the quarterback has regressed a little bit. So I hope that's not the case with Baker. But in any event, I think Godwin's priced appropriately. You're hoping that the move back to the slot

is going to help him from a reception standpoint, target standpoint, all those things, build off the way that he finished last year. Mike Evans is a year older. If he loses a step and Baker starts to lean on Godwin more, I think he'll be in a great spot. Okay. And remember, you actually think he's underpriced based on CBS ADP

because he's 38th at wide receiver. Yeah. I mean, I'm going to be a little bit more aggressive drafting him if that's the ADP. But again, I don't think you should all of a sudden go back to, hey, Chris Godwin's in the slot. He's a top 24 receiver again. I'll say what I said yesterday.

He's in that group for me of basically like wide receiver 18 through wide receiver 30 where I think they're all top 20 caliber options. And so he's at the tail end of it. I think he's like 28th for me, 29th. But somebody that I'm very excited to draft this year, I'm not going to go and reach for him sooner than he has to go. Okay. Dave Heath, do you want to add anything? Jamie said almost everything that I would have said about Chris Godwin.

I will say, and I've talked about this before, that group of 18 to 30 is really, really close. There's a pretty decent gap between those guys and my number 38 wide receiver. So I love the discount in terms of ADP. I love drafting him as a number three wide receiver. And we talk about this occasionally, like that contingent upside. If something happens to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin might be a top 12 wide receiver. I think that that's absolutely in play.

Just we don't want to count on that. I hate that contingency argument for like 95% of the people in the National Football League because Evans doesn't miss time. Like we know he's old and all that stuff, but I don't think we can count on that. That's not a reason to take Chris Godwin. You're taking Chris Godwin because we still think the target volume is going to be there, and he's a safe play. The ADOT will probably go down, but the number of games where he has six for 70 is going to be pretty high, and that's a safe floor.

That's a really good number three receiver in full PPR. And so there's, there are receivers that I've got ranked ahead of them that have more upside neighbors should be one of them. He's not, um, but that's something that could change. Ridley is ahead of him. Christian Kirk is kind of the same guy, but we've seen him make explosive plays. We've seen him score a lot of touchdowns. I would take him ahead of Godwin.

I would take tank Dell ahead of Chris Godwin. And I just, I think that one year without Tom Brady, plus he was hurt during the majority of the 2023 season. I think the new role plus a healthier Chris Godwin should equal good production, not great production. And that's why he's in this range for me. He's wide receiver 30. And here's where Chris Godwin has finished per game. And obviously, you know, he's kind of a guy that you could see being a lot better in PPR, especially lately. But here's where he let's say half PPR per game. Last five seasons, Chris Godwin, number two per game. That was a tremendous season.

Number 15, number eight per game, number 20 per game, which was a weird season where he just got like 160 targets and didn't really do much with them, but he caught a lot of passes, and then number 39 last year. So he was top 20 four straight years. He was top 15, 19, 20, and 21, then 20th and 39th per game in half PPR. All right, let's go to Zay Flowers, guys. Zay Flowers, rookie season, was number 36 per game in non-PPR, number 33 per game in full PPR,

on pace for more. He didn't quite crack the 900 mark, but he was on pace for 912 yards. And big differences for him with and without Mark Andrews. With Mark Andrews on the field, 19% target per route run rate. Without him on the field, 22% target per route run rate. The target share went from 22.3% with Andrews on the field, 25.4% with Andrews off the field. And the production was just different. It was just better. All right, Heath, give me pros and cons for Zay Flowers.

Uh, the pros are, he was, you know, pretty good as a rookie wide receiver. And generally speaking, when you're pretty good as a rookie wide receiver, you get better in year two or year three, and you become someone that's close to like that wide receiver. 23 would make perfect sense to me. If it wasn't for the fact that his good production was so much influenced by Mark Andrews. If the same exact group was coming back that played all the games last year,

then him going from wide receiver 30 to wide receiver 23 in year two would make perfect sense. But the bad news, as you said it, 19% target for outrun when Mark Andrews was on the field. We're not projecting a Mark Andrews. Yes, and I know Dave said he hates it. He has the contingent upside. If something happens to Mark Andrews, he's probably a number two wide receiver. If something doesn't, he's probably a low-end number three. We've got him consensus at wide receiver 31. I've got him at wide

receiver 32. But why do you guys think Zay Flowers is going so far ahead? He's 23, I believe, in ADP. Because he's a young wide receiver who was really pretty good in the second half of the season and we generally expect those guys to get better as they grow in the league yeah so you're gonna have to convince people they're making a mistake here

i think he's such a like fascinating case study because we we usually see rookie wide receivers when they break out it's usually the second half of the season. Unless they're just super elite. But that was the point where he started to play well. And it coincides with Andrews going down. It was week 11 when Andrews got hurt. And so, is it all tied to Andrews? I mean, it's hard to overlook that, clearly, because he's such a big part of the offense.

And they don't throw the ball a lot. But you all are also talking about that's the point in the season when you start to see that Ascension. And so can he build off of it? Does he, you know, supplant Andrews as the number one guy for Lamar Jackson? I mean, you know, those are certainly relevant things that could happen, but you know, the thing that I go back to with, with this offense is there's no chance that defenses are playing them to throw the ball at this point. You know, with Lamar Jackson and now Derek Henry, it stopped the run first, which is most defenses playing anyway, but it's, it's clearly the priority for the Ravens. Now you have the wrinkle of, okay, it's not the same Ravens offense. We saw that last year. You know, they are going to throw the ball a little bit more with the coordinator change. So how much of that will

benefit flowers? How much of that will benefit Andrews? And it just makes them such a difficult puzzle to solve if you're trying to stop them. And so I think Flowers is probably being drafted too soon. I think we all agree on that. That 23 is a little bit too high, but it wouldn't surprise me even with Andrews there if he continues to build off of it because Jackson's such a unique talent. He's so good at throwing the ball despite the people that still nitpick that. And if Flowers can build off of that, and he's the guy that spends the offseason with him. Andrews is not. Flowers and Lamar Jackson are probably throwing today

somewhere in South Florida. It's three blocks from our office. Yeah. They have a very good rapport. Flowers did that right away, you know, when he came into the league last off season. And so it wouldn't shock me if flowers is, is the target leader on this offense.

I don't think it's going to be the case, but it wouldn't shock me. But in any event, I think he's, he's somebody that, again, similar to a couple of these other guys we talked about, you know, I'll say the same thing I said about Ridley. I like Ridley. I just don't want to reach for Ridley. I like Godwin. I don't want to go crazy for Godwin. And I like flowers. I just don't want to reach for him as a 23rd receiver off the board. So I've got two cons that bug me about flowers because, and it bugs me because like everybody else is saying supremely talented wide receiver. He's on my dynasty team. I think he's an awesome, awesome receiver. I just

don't like the spot that he's in. He's actually led all Ravens receivers since Lamar Jackson's been under center for them in PPR points per game over a season. That number is 12.9. No other wide receiver in Baltimore has averaged better than that in a season with Lamar Jackson under center. Is that a Lamar Jackson stat or a Greg Roman stat? It could be both. Listen, last year there was no Greg Roman, and it was 12.9, and that's as good as it gets. The other stat that I have on Flowers is that there were seven games last year where he had at least 13 PPR points.

So that's not bad. That's a safe floor, and we know he's got the ceiling to get into the 30s, and he will in some given weeks, which makes him awesome in best ball, more of a number three flexi type receiver in redraft. In those seven games, a Ravens running back had 14 or fewer PPR points in six of seven, and they just improved their running game. How many games this year are the Ravens going to have with a running back with 14 or fewer PPR points. And that's independent of whether Mark Andrews is there or not. So stronger running game.

Mark Andrews is back. What's left for Zay Flowers that warrants him going as a top 50 pick? I don't see it. I think maybe there's a broader question about extremely mobile quarterbacks, you know, the best ones, and how many players can be fantasy standouts in those offenses. I'm just thinking about this now. This is not a prepared segment or anything.

But, I mean, mobile quarterbacks are a lot of fun, but they're also, in some ways, they're pretty bad for everyone else. You know? You don't agree with that? Well, I'm in two camps for sure. If you're talking about creating three or four different starters in the offense, that's hard to find from any offense.

But anytime you've got one of these mobile quarterbacks that's going to go out of the pocket and they're reading downfield and they just don't like what they see, they're going to take off. And so that's a pass attempt. And in the case of Lamar Jackson, that happens two, three times a game. So yeah, of course that's going to hurt him. If you're looking for three Ravens that are must-start players outside of Lamar Jackson, I think it's going to be tough.

Unless it's a deeper league, then Flowers would qualify. But in a regular league where it's two wide receivers and a flex, is Flowers a must start there? Maybe. Maybe as your flex. I think Jalen Hurts is the best example, right? The Eagles. But even then, last year, A.J. Brown was awesome. And then, obviously, Devontae in the games where Goddard was out,

he was awesome. You have to go to two years ago. A.J. Brown was a little less awesome in those games, if I recall. You have to go to two years ago where Smith and Brown finished his top 12 receivers overall, I think top 15 per game, but you didn't really get a great running back out of that, but no. And how did Goddard do? Probably not great either. He was okay. He got hurt. He missed some time. Right. Which is why Smith did well. Right. Right. Probably right. If Smith hadn't gotten hurt, then he would not have really, he was right. Not even a top 30 wide receiver. I'm sorry. If Goddard hadn't gotten hurt, if Goddard hadn't gotten hurt, I he would not have really – he was – right, not even a top 30 wide receiver.

I'm sorry, if Goddard hadn't gotten hurt. If Goddard hadn't gotten hurt, I don't know if Smith would have finished that. Anyway, and I don't know. That's the thing. I don't really think Lamar Jackson can throw for – God, what did the Eagles throw for that year? Like 4,600 yards or something like that? Yeah.

Jackson – Well, don't say he can't. They won't allow him to. Yeah, well. I mean,'t say you can't. They won't allow him to. Yeah, well. I mean, if the defense isn't as good, I think he could. And I think this could be a really concentrated passing attack. It could be a situation where half the targets are going to Flowers and Andrews.

Yeah, unless you're a Bateman guy. Again, Mark Andrews is like, Rashad Bateman's going to have a huge year. There's a lot of Bateman. Everybody's saying that about Bateman and whatever. All right, you want to talk about Terry McLaurin? Sure. We'll do it after this break. We'll be right back with Terry McLaurin and three others

after this on Fantasy Football Today. Fall is almost gone, but have you sipped enough Starbucks fall faves? Enough of the pumpkin spice latte, the cinnamony pumpkin-flavored legend, or the new iced apple crisp non-dairy chai. So silky, so smooth. How about the new pecan crunch oat latte? Nutty, buttery deliciousness and crunchy pecan flavor. Trick question, of course.

It's the last call for fall, so don't miss out on your fall faves. Next stop, Starbucks. Metrolinx and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Terry McLaurin, Dave, you can give me the pros and cons

for Terry McLaurin, who has never finished inside the top 20 on a per-game basis in in non or full PPR, probably not half either. But how about that for McLaurin? Go. So that's the first con on Terry McLaurin. Just he has one season where he's averaged more than 13.7 PPR points per game. He's never been above 9.6 non PPR points per game,

but he does average around seven targets per game, but rarely does he get into that eight plus target range. That's a bit of a problem. The numbers that you gave are a problem. The fact that he's only scored like four or five touchdowns. In fact, it's either been one or the other, uh, each of his last four seasons. That's a problem as well. The, the upside case for him, the pro case, we know he's a talented

wide receiver. We know that he's fast. We know that he can get open and he's got a quarterback upgrade. At least it seems that way with Jane Daniels. I don't know if we're ready to say that Jane Daniels is going to come into the league and be an awesome thrower. We know he's going to run. And then that ties into what we just got done talking about with the Ravens and how many guys can a quarterback like that support, especially as a rookie, that makes you a little skittish, but Jane Daniels was an accurate thrower in college. And when you're comparing him to the likes of, um, uh, who, who, who was it like Heineken? No, Heineken wasn't even there last year. Who were the quarterbacks in Washington?

Sam Howell. Oh yeah. It was terrible. All right. So I think that this is, that was a good Howell. It was, it was a busy Howell. He threw a lot and it just wasn't very good. I was talking about my how old Dave, but yes.

Oh, that's always good. Thank you. Okay. I don't know what kind of noise you're going to make for Jaden Daniels, but I think he's going to be a better thrower than anybody that McLaurin's had over at least the last two seasons when 20.6% of his targets were uncatchable. Okay, go ahead.

Heath, you can go next on Terry McLaurin. How do you feel about him? I have almost no feelings about Terry McLaurin. I'm not saying that to... I've got so much to say about Malik Neighbors and almost nothing to say about Terry McLaurin. I just don't really feel like there's that much upside. And I don't really feel like there's that much risk.

He's probably going to average, you know, 60, 65 yards per game, score five to seven touchdowns, finish around wide receiver. 30. If he's scoring five to seven touchdowns,

I'm excited. He's scored five last year, didn't he? Yeah, but it's been four or five each of the last four seasons. Scored four last year. I have. Like, if you're telling me there's hope of seven touchdowns, which, I mean, there is.

If it's a better quarterback, then yeah, there's a chance of that. But I'm not drafting him with, all right, seven touchdowns on deck for Scary Terry. I agree with your sentiment, Heath, that he's just kind of one of those safe, fallback wide receiver threes that you'll be happy to settle for. You know, the Commanders averaged 245.5 passing yards per game last year. They think they threw the most.

Throw it out. Well, they threw them, right. Right, that's the thing. It's like they actually haven't been that bad. They haven't been Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, Drake London bad. You know, it's not like McLaurin's dealt with that. I'm not just talking about last year. I'm talking about in his career.

He has not had good quarterback play, but he has not had among the worst in the NFL. Now, Jaden Daniels, I don't know. Do you think he'll even get 220 passing yards per game next year? No. No. Probably not. I don't know. What do you, you think we'll even get 220 passing yards per game next year? No, no, probably not. I'll say yes.

But if you make it to 40, I'll say no. So the pie is shrinking. No, the pie is shrinking. They added another receiver that they like in McCaffrey. They like the two tight ends that they have. I think there's upside with Senate more so than the nerves of the arts,

but he's going to be a guy that factors in. They just brought in one of the best pass catching running backs in the league and Austin Eckler. I mean, yeah, the pie is definitely shrinking. And they're not going to throw nearly as much. They've made it clear. They don't want to do that. I think this is a team that wants to, if they had their druthers,

they'd run a lot. They're going to lean on defense. They're going to try and grind out their wins. What'll probably end up happening is that they'll have to throw. They're going to be way behind. They're not going try and grind out their wins. What'll probably end up happening is that they'll have to throw. They're going to be way behind. They're not going to be able to do that. I bet there's going to be some games where they're underdogs and they keep it very, very close

and maybe even win in the fourth quarter with that formula. I didn't have anything to say about Terry McCormick, but I think listening to everybody else talk about him, I'm probably going to move him down this afternoon a little bit. Where do you have him now? 32, like right where we do. Feelingless.

He just really needs more targets. We don't really talk about that with McLaurin, but for a guy who plays pretty much every game, he doesn't... Dave said this. He's in like the seven target range, doesn't usually get up to eight. His target per out run rate is just very average, and he's just never been an elite

target getter. So that's, you know, and, and maybe even more importantly, red zone targets. He just doesn't get a lot of those. So we, I guess we kind of feel like the yards are probably not going up. You know, the targets, yards, catches, that stuff's probably not going up for him to outperform his ADP and be top 24 receiver. We probably need more touchdowns, which we always say are the toughest to predict. It just feels like there's no breakout potential here.

Yeah. Daniels would have to really love him and, and just, and be probably exceed our expectations. It's, it's going to come down to explosive plays, which has been an area where McLaurin has been good at, and we know he can do better.

I'm counting on the target. I've got him ranked exactly where Heath has him ranked, which is at 32. But I think Daniels is a good deep ball thrower who can get the ball to McLaurin. I think McLaurin will be his favorite target. I think he's an okay number three wide receiver. I don't mind giving him another shot. All right, let's go to Jaden Reed. Jamie, back to you on Jaden Reed, pros and cons. I do like he giving him another shot. All right, let's go to Jaden Reed. Jamie,

back to you on Jaden Reed pros and cons. I do like he's talking while he's on mute. That's my favorite thing. Um, didn't notice, uh, pros for Jaden Reed. Uh, there's some rushing upside there. You know, we, we kept calling him baby Debo Samuel last year. He scored two rushing touchdowns. I think people think he scored like five or six million score too. Um, so there is some, some potential there. Obviously there's the, you know, not, you know, not to go against what Dave said about the injury risk, but obviously there's an injury risk on this team and Christian Watson. And so when Watson was out, Jaden Reed was even better than what he showed in his rookie campaign. But you have to factor that in just given Christian Watson's injury track record.

The cons are there's a lot of mouth to feed. You know, I mean, you look at this receiving core, they're expecting more Dontevian Wicks. I don't think Romeo Dobbs is completely going away by any stretch. If Watson stays healthy, if the tight ends stay healthy, both guys have battled injuries. Musgrave last year, Kraft right now. The run game might be better with the addition of Josh Jacobs. At least that's the expectation, certainly seeing what happened to Aaron Jones last year. He makes me a little nervous. expectation, you know, certainly seeing what happened to Aaron Jones last year. So he makes me a little nervous, you know, just again, that you look at that number as you're watching on YouTube, but the 10 total touchdowns, eight receiving, two rushing, that number, I think is hard to replicate.

And so if you take the touchdowns away from him and, you know, cut them in half, which is certainly a possibility, then he could be ranked way too high and being drafted way too soon. So I like Jane Reed. I just don't want to overvalue Jaden Reed. This feels like, other than neighbors who we'll get to shortly, this feels like the guy who could be almost anything. Like if Christian Watson can't stay healthy

and Jaden Reed takes a step forward, he could be an absolute steal at this cost. And if Christianatson plays 15 games jayden reed might play half the snaps um like literally might just be somebody you can never trust unless he happens to hit a big play so i do think this whole packers receiving core besides dobbs um could profile as kind of part-time players. I think Dobbs will probably be the full-time guy and we're just going to have like, it's,

I would much rather draft Jaden Reed in best ball than I would in regular redraft. I'm a fan of his talent. I think that he's the most versatile receiver that green Bay has. They can ask him to do about anything and he could come through on it. Here's some of my favorite stats on read 17.4 PPR points per game in his last eight. That's from week 10 on. Seven touchdowns. Two of them were rushing touchdowns. Both the rushing touchdowns came from 16 or more yards out. I think that's going to be a little bit tougher for him to

replicate, but I think he will get some carries and arounds, those types of things. In those last eight games, Christian Watson played in four of them. In those four, Reed averaged 14.8 PPR points per game. That's not bad. It's lower than the average, which means without Watson, that number was higher. It was 20 PPR points per game. I say that a lot. Sorry about that. In those four with Watson, Watson had two games with 20 plus and two games with 10.2

or fewer. Reed played at least 70% of the snaps in one of those eight games. We've talked about how he played through an injury then. I wonder what's going to happen this year if he's fine. Is his snap share going to stay limited or is he going to play a lot more? Is he going to be a regular part of that offense if he's 80 to 100% healthy from week to week. And that encourages me because I think he will be a regular part of that offense. I understand that there's risk involved. I think that's baked into the ADP right now. He's one of the wide receivers that I think you can draft as a wide receiver three.

And if things fall right, if he stays healthy, et cetera, he can finish the year as a low end wide receiver too. Which Packers receiver are you guys taking first,ed or watson i'm taking reed first i have them ranked almost two or three spots apart uh typically what i'll do is i'll let somebody else take reed and i'll take watson but um in our magazine draft i took reed as my fifth receiver which was too easy to do wow what round was that was that six that was like round eight yeah oh man like, man. Like, that's awesome value. Good for you. I'll tell you.

Just to make sure I'm correct. Yeah, I've got him like two spots apart. I would say what's probably going to happen is if we get through the first couple of weeks of training camp and Christian Watson's very similarly sized hamstrings are healthy, then I will be drafting Christian Watson first. But for now, it's Reed a couple spots over Watson. Yeah, so Jaden Reed played 72.3 percent of his snaps from the slot so he had one of the highest fourth highest slot rate in the nfl and the packers

were 20th in the nfl in snaps from three receiver sets so this is kind of what we're talking about is not playing more than 70 of the snaps most of time, he's saying he may not play 50% of the snaps. Sometimes they just don't line up in three receiver sets that much. At least they didn't last year. And he's the slot guy. Now, if he's as good as he was on a per route basis, he was really good. You know, maybe they find creative ways to get him on the field. But the other problem is he's one of the most obvious.

Like Dave talked about the two rushing touchdowns from over 16 yards. He's one of the most obvious touchdown regression candidates, rushing and catching the ball. I think he had a 10% receiving touchdown rate also. He has to see his volume go way up to match or come anywhere close to the production he was

last year. Right, but if he stays healthy and he's playing 80% of the snaps, then I think that... You think he does that if... In in total without an injury to anybody else yeah uh sure so i think he's gonna be an every down player even with watson wicks dobbs you think he's gonna be an every down play not every down but you think he's gonna be an 80 but close i think he'll be a regular part of that office second year-year receiver, very talented. They obviously treasure his speed if they're using him as a runner. He's going to be out there.

It would be crazy to not, unless, I guess the one thing that could hold him back is Dontavian Wicks just blows the doors off him. Well, I think Christian Watson stays healthy. And Christian Watson stays healthy. Because Dobbs is going to be out there. I think he's the one full-time wide receiver for the Packers. Yeah, you know... He was last year.

This may be actually one thing that's worth watching in the preseason, is the snaps. I actually don't even remember if the Packers are one of those teams that plays their guys in the preseason. I certainly wouldn't play Christian Watson or Jaden Reed in the preseason. Well, but I would like to see their personnel groupings and if they're using him outside of the slot more. All right, let's go to Marquise Brown going over to the Chiefs.

Huge offensive upgrade in his first five seasons in the NFL. Marquise Brown's been on a bottom five pass offense in terms of gross passing yards per game three times. The Chiefs have been top eight in gross passing yards all five of those seasons, top eight in touchdown passes, and eight, by the way, was last year. I mean, they're usually top five in passing yards and touchdowns. So great opportunity here for Marquise Brown.

Wait, where's Malik Nabors? You skipped him. I thought you were just saving him for the end because we were going to want to talk for 45 minutes about him, and you didn't want to do that. Save the best for last. Yes, I will save the best for last. I will save neighbors for last. And Dave, then I'll let you do the pros and cons on Marquise Brown. The pros are he's had pockets of unbelievable fantasy production each of the last two years. And then prior to that, he was certainly getting a lot of volume and being effective. Here's some examples. First five games of 2023. This is mostly with Josh Dobbs as his quarterback, 8.4 targets per game, 15.2 PPR average 2022 first six games,

no Deandre Hopkins on the field, 18.3 PPR average. That's on 10.7 targets per game. That's kind of a Kyler Murray stat. 2021, just overall, 9.1 targets per game. 13 per seven was his average in full point per reception leagues. That was Baltimore, right? That was Baltimore. So that was the year without Lamar. I'm going back to your Lamar Jackson stat because you said 12.9 with Lamar Jackson?

Mm-hmm. That was when Jackson was hurt. The first eight games of that season with Lamar Jackson, that was Marquise Brown. That looked like the true Marquise Brown breakout. He was on pace for 98 catches, 1,449 yards, 13 touchdowns on 147 targets.

Then he started struggling. Jackson got hurt a few games later and the season was derailed after that. But he has had these stretches of greatness, eight games, six games, five games in each of the last three seasons. Yes. I, uh, I was just going to say the other stat that helps me with Marquise Brown and why I'm kind of encouraged by him past five seasons, receivers with at least seven targets in Kansas City. There's been 71 times. 12 or more PPR points, 45 times.

And a lot of this is Tyree Kill, but it still stands. 15 plus PPR points, 35 out of 71 occasions. Those are games, obviously. 20 plus PPR, 25 out of 71 games. So once you get to that seven target range, you're in play to be a very capable fantasy receiver. And I think Brown's going to be that guy, especially if Rasheed Rice isn't ready to start the field or start the season, especially if Xavier Worthy isn't going to be

on the field that much because he's just not ready. I think he's a one-year band-aid for Kansas City's passing game, but I think he'll be a good one. He's in a great spot to really just flourish. You've got 35-year-old Travis Kelsey who's spent the summer touring with Taylor Swift. You've got Rashi Rice having all kinds of concerns off the field. You've got Marquise Brown just hanging out with Patrick Mahomes apparently all summer long. Xavier Worthy's got the hamstring issues, can't practice. It's gone pretty great for him.

Once there's a Rice suspension announced, this ADP might get doubled, cut in half, whatever you want to say. Yeah. I think a lot of people are also just scared to get Brown on their team because he's let people down for stretches. Oh, I don't think anybody's scared to draft him in this spot. I think people are clamoring for him in this spot. I think the scared will come if there's –

If it's two rounds higher. Yeah, and it's a four-game suspension for Rice or less than that. And then it's, okay, yeah, he'll get off to a good start, but – or Travis Kelsey's going to have a snap share, but he's still Travis Kelsey. Or Xavier Worthy with a hamstring injury in training camp, but he's still the guy that the Chiefs draft in the first round. There'll be a lot of buts, a lot of ifs, a lot of what could happen.

But, I mean, it feels like the upside is through the roof. Like, you know, we've highlighted some of his best performances. Like, what if that's a full season and he's now with the best quarterback from a passing perspective he's ever played with? It's hard to overlook that. That stat that I gave earlier on the Ravens, I don't know why Brown didn't show up there, but he's actually the one that has the best PPR per game average.

Well, that was the year where, again, Jackson, that was Jackson. I looked at it when you brought it up because I knew he was a little bit better than that, but that was the year where Jackson started dealing with injuries. Right. It was 14.1. 14.1.

Blew away Zay Flowers. But still, no one's averaged 15 PPR points per game with Lamar. Yeah. Well, I think that was also a year where the Ravens, I think, were ninth in pass attempts, which is weird. Because the other four seasons of Lamar Jackson's starting career, as a starter, they've been bottom five and pass attempts. Just a little say flowers note there. Look, if they're going to be ninth and pass attempts, then I would take say flowers in the, you know, as a top 24 wide receiver. I just don't think it's going to happen. Yes. That's like, boy, I don't, you guys really just sold me on Marquise Brown. I don't even know

you. He's the anti Terry McLaurin. You didn't even say you. I don't even know. He's the anti-Terry McLaurin. You didn't even say... I don't even think you guys picked him as having the most upside. I feel like you guys said neighbors had the most upside in the group. Yeah. Well, I mean, again, if Rice isn't suspended

or it's a two-game suspension, then it's hard to say Marquise Brown has that opportunity to be that guy. He still could. Yeah, he could. Did we not make the downside case for Marquise Brown has that opportunity to be that guy. He still could. Yeah, he could. I mean, did we not make the downside case for Marquise Brown?

Let's not make it all sunshine and roses for a guy that you have. I mean, the downside is Travis Kelsey goes back to being a double digit touchdown guy. And you know, the receiving core still is not as involved from a touchdown perspective. You know, they're talking all about being a more vertical offense.

Makes sense when you add Marquise Brown and Xavieravier worthy but what if they're not you know what if teams are still taking that away from mahomes in this office and and and you're still forced to you know dink and dunk your way down the field and that's not exactly marquise brown's game plus rice not being suspended and xavier worthy being everything he's as advertised as not just a speed guy but a legit wide receiver then marquise brown looks like a guy that's getting close to 30 has bounced around to now three teams and and may not be this go-to guy for Patrick Mahomes and is just MVS 2.0. Do you want to hear how bad the numbers are for him outside of those little stretches that I talked about earlier for Marquise Brown? I wouldn't use last year,

though, because he was playing hard at the end. I'll use the year before if you want. You can pick your year. And you could do this with a bunch of players, but this is just the streaky nature of what Marquise Brown has been, and I think that's what you've got to expect from him. From week seven through the end of the 2022 season, he averaged in PPR 7.8 points, 7.2 targets per game. But again, that was Kyler Murray tearing his ACL, too.

Yeah, that happened there. And then week six through the end of last year, 6.6 targets per game. But again, that was Kyler Murray tearing his ACL too. Yeah, that happened there. And then week six through the end of last year, 6.6 targets per game, 6.5 PPR points per game. Horrible. We thought, oh, I don't think he can do that in Kansas City, but that is some of the ugliness. But that was 2021 again when Lamar Jackson got hurt. So there's asterisks to all this.

Right. So maybe, no, I'm thinking at 11, if he averages 11 for four or five weeks, people are going to get tired of Mark East Brown. But I, I think the ADP is so good and there are enough people in every league that look at his name and they go,

ah, he's been around a long time. He's never been great. They're going to bypass him for some other receivers that they really shouldn't. If he's averaging 11 PPR points per game, he's a great number three receiver. I'm looking for more than that.

Obviously, everybody's looking for more than that. But this year, I think he's well above that. The 18 to 30 range is ripe with guys that can get you 13 to 15. But he's not being drafted. I think that's lower than you think. Last year, 44 receivers averaged more than 11 points per game. Yeah, look, it's not ideal, but there's going to obviously be games in there

where he's going to have some big games. If he's getting to 11, there's going to be some games where he's disappointing. You're attaching yourself to Mahomes. Right. It just hasn't really worked in terms of drafting Chiefs wide receivers other than Tyree Kill, obviously.

Well, it worked is the right. It's failed. It's failed with MVS. It's failed with sky more. It's failed with Cadareous. Tony made it. I think it worked with Juju. Didn't it? It worked,

but it wasn't like he didn't win you your league. He was, you know, like a number two, good number two receiver. Yeah. It's not a bad, right.

No, it's, it makes sense picking him 35th, which is right around his ADP where he is in the consensus rankings, Marquise Brown. Last question here. If there were no suspension for Rasheed Rice, where are you thinking you'd be ranking the three Chiefs wide receivers? Rice would be here.

Rice would probably even be higher than this. But I don't think that Brown necessarily has to have Rice miss a bunch of time. It's possible that Brown could just be better than Rice when they're both on the field. But I think Rice would be probably top 25. Brown would be around 40. And I probably would have soured even more unworthy. Yeah, I think Brown could still be the best receiver and he might still be the one

that I take certainly a non PPR first all right well that's it for our show there's no one no one else interesting to talk about great great show guys well done oh just kidding Malik

neighbors Dave come back come back Malik all right Heath the moment you've been all right Adam make the pro con for Malik neighbors no I can't take that away All right, Adam, make the pro con for Malik Neighbors. No, I can't take that away from Heath. No, you can make the pro.

I don't think I need to stress. I don't think anyone needs to make the con. I think that's the easy one. Yeah, the pro is I loved him before, as Dave thankfully mentioned on F155, before the NFL draft, I loved Malik Neighbors. And a lot of people had them as their wide receiver one, you know, enough people.

And remember a lot of, some people had a Jameer Gibbs is there RB one last year ahead of Bijan Robinson and Gibbs had a better rookie season than Robinson. So neighbors could be talented enough, you know, to, to, you know,

be a better player than Marvin Harrison. Obviously I'm not taking him ahead of Marvin Harrison. So I've seen rookie wide receivers come into bad situations and have great rookie years. They make it as possible. They make their quarterbacks better. They bring their quarterbacks to levels that we hadn't seen before, which hopefully could just be somewhere close to league average for Daniel Jones. Neighbors is the kind of guy who can do a lot after the catch. And it's just a bet on talent to bet on upside. And I actually think that there's going to be a pretty good floor there because I think he will get a lot of targets.

And by the way, historically, or looking at the last six years of players who have been drafted in rounds seven through nine and have been good top 24, you know, top 12 in a lot of cases, like there are going to be three or so every year. They get seven or more targets almost every time. So you have to ask yourself, can he get that? I think he can. That's my case for Malik neighbors.

It's he's actually in some ways, a very easy player to evaluate, but the outcomes are obviously very difficult to predict, but we know he's really good and he's got a terrible quarterback. Yeah, I think, and you talk about those rookie wide receivers. I went through this morning and just looked at all the last 10 years of rookie wide receivers drafted in the first half of round one and it really could not be more of a coin flip um there are some hall of fame league

winners and there's cory davis and henry ruggs and john ross and cory coleman and and like it's it's nine out of 19 have been really good, but I think you look at the most recent, like we all think Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, very good. They're also still on our breakout list in year three because they played

with bad quarterbacks, even though a couple of them may have played with better quarterbacks than Daniel Jones. I think like it's hard to underestimate how bad this situation has been for pass catchers. No wide receiver in the past, what six years with more than 751 receiving yards, more than 60 yards per game even.

And they haven't had good pass catchers, but Kenny Galladay's 17 game average before he went to the giants was 1200 yards and eight touchdowns per year. He played 26 games there and had 600 yards in one touchdown. Yeah. He was like a broken down. That was a horse. I think he was,

he may have just like been broken in his soul. And then Darren Waller went there and again had health problems, but was, was better with Terod Taylor than he was with Daniel Jones, indisputably. We're really using Kenny Galladay and Darren Waller as the examples of why Malik Hammer can't be good. No, I'm not saying he can't be good.

I'm saying this has been a pass. Like it's not, it's funny because it's so bad. It's been just the worst environment for a pass catcher in the NFL for half a decade. And they've got the same guy playing quarterback. Yeah. It's been just the worst environment for a pass catcher in the NFL for half a decade. And they've got the same guy playing quarterback. Don't disrespect you a lot like that. Come on. No, look, I think bringing up Galladay and Waller is actually a good point because I was excited about both of those guys.

A lot of people were, and they were huge busts. So it's perfectly valid. I actually, I think one of the reasons I'm excited about him, I'd like to get your thoughts on this, is I think he is, I don't know if I want to use the word significantly, but a clearly better prospect than Drake London, and then even guys like Drake London and Garrett Wilson, who were really good prospects.

But even listening to your Dynasty show, Heath, during the draft lead up, I feel like the guests you had were saying that the top three wide receivers in this draft class, Harrison, Neighbors, Odunze, would have been better than anyone in the last, I think, three classes. I think Neighbors is more highly regarded than London and Wilson. I would say that. I would hesitate and probably strike through the clearly part because those guys were elite prospects. And we absolutely, I mean, I think it shows you what a great prospect Drake London was that he's had the past two seasons that he has and that we're drafting him as around

two or around three pick now. Like that, that's how much we believe in the talent of Drake Linden. But other than that, these are, we're supposed to be the three best wide receiver prospects of at least the last three years. Right. Okay. Jamie thoughts on neighbors. I mean, just the, the potential for, for upside here.

Yes. The receivers for the giants have been awful, whether it's been Kenny Galladay or they overpaid or a broken down and maybe one foot out the door, Darren Waller, um, notwithstanding the, the formula, which is something that Brian Dable was a part of is how do you make your quarterback better? Well, you're bringing talent, you know? And so they've tried and I don't think they've necessarily brought in the right talent. You know, yes, there was some reason to be excited about Galladay, and there was reason to be excited about Waller, especially that first drive, man, against the Panthers.

That preseason? Yeah, baby. But in any event, this is what helped Josh Allen from Brian Dable's perspective. I don't think it's going to help Daniel Jones, because I don't know if Daniel Jones is ever going to develop into the type of quarterback Giants fans thought he was once upon a time or maybe some NFL talent evaluators. But in terms of neighbors and what he can be, he's going to still be a prolific wide receiver. He's going to be weighed down by his quarterback. That's just the nature of it. So to Heath's point, yes, you don't want to overvalue him because of his talent and hopefully he will overcome that. I think that's why he's, you know, being drafted too soon and why we're,

you know, not necessarily in agreement with that based on the ADP. But if you get him at the right price and you're drafting him as your number three receiver with the chance to see that, that may be second half production, you know, whether it's, you know, I keep making a joke, but maybe it is drew lock, you know, maybe that's the type of quarterback, like to his point, Tyrod Taylor was better for Darren Waller. You know, it's just, it could be the, the, the, the backup is better than the starter. And that's what helps these guys take that stuff forward. He's going to be fed targets. He's going to hopefully be able to do a lot with those targets. You know, Dave talks a lot about, you know, the, the, the bad targets that we see for some of these quarterbacks or from some of these quarterbacks.

And it makes total sense. He's going to be in that, in that, in that canoe of, you know, just getting bad target product, bad target shares from his, from his quarterback. Uncatchable targets. I'll believe in, in Dable scheming him up to get those opportunities.

We've talked a lot about, you know, he's, he's gonna, I think I have to change his game a little bit and make some plays. There are a lot of scrimmage that he's probably not used to doing by comparison to what his talent level suggests, but you put the ball in his hands. I think he's going to make plays and so I'm banking on his

talent overcoming a situation then hopefully the Giants address in the quarterback situation maybe next year and then that helps him become the superstar he's capable of being but for this year I think he's a good number three wide receiver and you're banking on upside and I think he has the upside to be one of the better players at his position, hopefully sooner rather than later. Do you think, Adam, because the seven targets per game is not good. If it's seven targets per game, I think he's going to have a hard time. With seven targets a game from Daniel Jones, he's going to have a hard time being a top 30 wide receiver. That's 119 Daniel Jones targets. Well, at least seven targets per game.

Or true Luck. But do you think... Like, what we saw Dable do when Jones has been healthy for the most part the last couple of years is they've limited the passing game quite a bit. The way that Garrett Wilson's been good

and Drake London really hasn't for fantasy yet is because Wilson's got to play in some pretty high pass attempt environment, whereas London really didn't. It's 500, 520 attempts, something like that. Is there a chance that because of Malik neighbors,

Dable's now drawing up a more pass heavy scheme? Yeah, I think so. And no Barkley. You have to bank on that. And no Barkley, right? You're not going to give the ball to Devin Singletary 18 times a game. Right. It feels like we're going to see a totally different offense from the Giants.

Yes. Thank you. I think you're right, Heath. I mean, they have to for neighbors to hit. If you guys want the stats. So we're going to get like 600 Daniel Jones passes, James? There's no way Drew Locke... If he lasts that long?

There's no way Drew Locke is not starting some games because if he struggles... Schneier keeps talking about this, and I haven't seen this. I got to confirm this. Maybe you guys can. Schneier says that he's got that same clause that Derek Carr and Russell Wilson had,

where if they got hurt, their contract was guaranteed for the following season. I think that's right, yeah. If he struggles and they want to move on, he's getting benched fairly quickly. So I do think that we should be expecting some Drew Locke or a good version of Daniel Jones. I don't see how Jones is bad and keeps his job all year.

Plus, he gets hurt every year. But we might not get a good version of Drew Locke either. Have we ever? No, right. I mean, that's obviously the first huge drawback is the quarterbacks. I don't think we need to say much more than that. And then the other thing that just kind of makes me feel a little gross is we're counting on Dable to come through and put together an offense that's going to highlight neighbors and make this other group of wideouts that he's put a really smart guy and we've given him a lot of credit but does he still deserve that credit after the last couple years and are we really ready to trust it without

that running game being what it used to be a couple of years I think that that's hand in hand the run game not having Saquon Barkley okay that should mean more passing that should mean more focus on getting the ball in Malik neighbors hands. I think there's a chance he could average eight targets per game, but it's eight targets from Daniel Jones and drew lock. And yeah, it could just, it,

this thing could get messy and it's going to be really tough to look at, at Malik neighbors and say, all right, this guy's a stud. If the quarterbacks are going to be huge problems. Yeah. That's why he's the number three receiver. I think we've got him ranked absolutely appropriately.

I don't think you should go out of your way to reach for Malik neighbors in any type of redraft league. Then you're not getting him. This is the problem with neighbors and flowers. You can sit here and say, yeah, if you get them at the right price as a just outside the top 30 or around 30th or later for Heath, it's in the 40s for neighbors. But they are going 23rd and 24th overall. If you look at different websites,

you're not getting Flowers and Neighbors in the top 30. So it's up to you. I mean, if you want to have a little fun with it and gamble on these young, talented receivers, if you were, would you gamble on Neighbors or gamble on Flowers? Neighbors. Flowers for me. Flowers. No, I'm sorry. Neighbors.

I haven't back to back. Neighbors, one spot ahead of flowers. I think that the gamble word is appropriate because you know what you're getting from the Ravens offense for the most part. You saw it last year. You know, so in the case of neighbors, there's an unknown. There's an unknown of, will they make a quarterback change? There's an unknown of what the offense will look like.

You know, I just keep going back to Barkley's gone. Offensive line play should be better. So keeping the quarterback upright. Yeah, that's a good point too. And the strength of this team right now feels like now this isn't, you know, look, hopefully Devin Singletary has a productive season, but I think you kind of know what he is. The strength of this team might be in his receiving core.

Cause I think Wanda Robinson will have a decent season too. You know, I kind of like him as well. Um, it's just a matter of, you know, where, where Daniel Jones or drew lock can get these guys to perform it.

And that's the scary part. Yeah. All right. So the stat that I, I don't think I gave this earlier, but looking at rounds seven through nine in ADP wide receivers over the last six seasons, 23 have finished top 24 per game.

So that's four per year, basically, have finished top 24 per game. And there's usually about 14 or so, I don't know, 13 maybe, drafted in this range per year. So let's say one third to one fourth of them are finishing top 24 per game. Now, 19 of the 23 wide receivers who have been drafted in around seven through nine and finished top 24

per game have averaged at least seven targets per game. 17 of the 23 have averaged at least 7.5 targets per game, which is about 128 targets per 17 games. So you should be, and I'll lead off our tomorrow show with this stat for those that don't stick around long enough to hear it. You should be hoping for target volume in this range. It's very, very important. It's always important, but seven or more targets is kind of a big number for wide receivers who have success in this range. Last year, Brandon, Iuke, Mike Evans, and Michael Pittman were drafted in this range. The year before that, Amonra St. Brown, Amari Cooper, Devontae Smith, Brandon Ayuk, Christian Kirk, all top 15 wide receivers.

They were drafted in this range. So we have more players to talk about. We'll do it tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.