Fantasy Football Today - WRs #36-#42! Potential Steals! Diontae, McConkey, Rashee Rice, Watson, Addison, Allen and Hopkins (07/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 10, 2024

If you support the show, please nominate Fantasy Football Today for The People's Choice Podcast Awards in the "Sports" Category: https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup/ Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts We're at WR36-42 in the consensus PPR rankings and we've got some fascinating players to discuss including two old guys who are still very good football players and a veteran on what was the worst offense in the NFL in 2023. Is this the start of a new tier at wide receiver (4:10)? Is there a big difference between these guys and the ones we talked about on yesterday's show? ... Quick news and notes (10:40) and then we give our outlooks for Diontae Johnson (14:00), Ladd McConkey (18:30) and Rashee Rice (25:10). Why does Heath think McConkey has more big play potential than Johnson? How high would Rice be ranked if he weren't facing a possible suspension? ... We finish with Christian Watson and Jordan Addison (31:15) followed by Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins (39:50). Where is the upside in this group? Are we at all concerned about age for Allen and Hopkins? ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Can you believe this? I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays at his feet. He's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races. And he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Here are some fun facts to start today's show. They're definitely facts.

I don't know if they're fun. That will be up to you to decide. DJ Moore has played six seasons in the NFL. He's now Keenan Allen's teammate. Keenan Allen in half PPR has averaged more fantasy points per game than DJ Moore in all six seasons. Every year of DJ Moore's career, Keenan Allen has been better in half PPR, obviously in full PPR as well. Yet DJ Moore is number 21 in our wide receiver consensus rankings. Allen is 42. And in ADP, DJ Moore is wide receiver 16 on CBS.

Allen is wide receiver 38. That's fun fact number one. Number two, DeAndre Hopkins was 18th in yards per route run among wide receivers with 50 or more targets last year. DeAndre Hopkins, he was 18th in yards per route run. Calvin Ridley was 46th. They had very similar stats on very similar targets,

but Hopkins did it on a lot fewer routes. And Ridley is wide receiver 29 in our PBR consensus rankings. Hopkins is wide receiver 40. And in ADP, Ridley is 32 and Hopkins is 44. And fun fact, Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins are both 32 years old. So there you go. And Jamie and Heath, you guys are not 30.

You wish you were 32 years old. Hello, guys. What's up? So do you. Yeah, I do. I don't know that I do. Like, yeah, it kind of stinks that when I hurt something, it hurts for longer,

and I can't do quite as many athletic things like when I was younger. But for the most part, like, life just keeps getting better. I don't look back at my twenties and think like life was a lot harder in my twenties than it is now. Not for me. No way. Well, your kids are older, right? You got there. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. You, you had kids. How old were you when you had your first kid? 20. I didn't't have heart i really didn't have any 20s without kids yeah okay so that was hard times wow that must have been hard all right so listen i gotta give a little bit of a clarification we're getting a criticism that is totally

justified i've been titling these episodes around seven through nine wide receivers and you know when we did this project you know of breaking down a group of players, it was started last month, I think. Jamie and I did running backs in the 10-ish to 18-ish range or something. I've been going off the PPR rankings, the consensus rankings, not ADP, because we don't really have, at least when we started it, we didn't have reliable ADP. There is no reliable ADP. Yeah, but I could probably do a show based on round seven to nine wide receivers based on ADP now.

Couldn't have done it when we started doing this whole, if we're going to call it a project, a theme or whatever. So the clarification would be we've been talking about wide receivers. Yesterday was 30 through 35. Today, 36 through 42 in the consensus rankings. Typically, that is the range of receivers that are going in rounds seven through nine. Basically, the first six rounds are going to be about 30 wide receivers most seasons. Might be more this year

because wide receivers are being pushed up. So no, Malik Neighbors and Zay Flowers are definitely not going to be around seven through nine receivers. I get that. Sorry, I changed the title of the episode in the audio format. We're just going to, we're just talking about number three to number four receivers in our rankings. Um, and now with 36 through 42,

we're pretty much done with number three receivers in our rankings. And, uh, we're moving on to Deontay Johnson, Ladd McConkie, Rasheed Rice, Christian Watson, Jordan Addison, Keenan Allen, and DeAndre Hopkins. All right. I hope that makes sense. And I'm sorry for the confusing titles. That's all my fault. Thank you. Thank you for explaining it.

Yeah. Well, I mean, it's a valid criticism. But, you know, when we talk about today's show, Deontay Johnson, McConkie, Rasheed Rice, Christian Watson, Addison, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins versus yesterday's show. Godwin, Flowers, McLaurin, Neighbors, Jaden Reed, Marquise Brown. Do you feel like we have reached a new tier of less exciting players? It's not going to be like every single one of them, but do you think in general this is a less exciting group than 30 through 35 no there's a lot of excitement with this group

um yeah i don't i wouldn't say less exciting like i would say that i do like these guys for the most part less and that's why i ranked them lower yeah not everyone like i don't know it feels like uh i think what you would say is keenan allen's less exciting but keenan allen's finished higher than pretty much all of the guys in the group before it's just that he went to a new team and we're scared i mean the last two years look at keenan allen he was top five per game in in all formats last year and then he only played i think eight healthy games he kept leaving games early in 2022 formats last year and then he only played i think eight healthy games he kept leaving games early in 2022 in his eight healthy games he was almost as good he was top eight per game in every format he's been unbelievable and very disrespected this year

adp is 39 or what did i say earlier it was it was 39 a few days ago it's uh he is yeah 38 now um and ranking is 41 so okay well i i don't know isn't there is there a big difference though between let's say chris godwin and christian watson in your minds i mean those are two totally different players like yes there's a big difference you know so like i think if you're looking for a godwin like player in this range it's more mcconkie or alan working out yeah i mean i would i would look more for somebody turning up as opposed to turning down but yeah okay fine is there a big difference between chris goblin and lad mcconkie um for me there there's a difference i don't i don't think there's a big difference um you know one is obviously has a pretty impressive resume and one you're going based on hope you know the the hope would be is that you know you you referenced it is that he's keen and alan you know he's not

going to perform like that but that he's justin herbert's go-to guy you know despite the fact that i think this narrative has gone a little bit too far of they're only going to run the ball they're not they're passing offense is going to stink. You know, I mean, look, they've, they've changed over their receiving core. They lost their top two receivers. And so, you know, there, there's this wide open, you know, blank canvas of McConkie and, and Palmer and Quinn Johnston with really Palmer, the only one having done something, I guess, DJ truck to, um, you know, having done something, but McConkie just feels like based on the role he's going to play, he's going to be the go-to

guy for Justin Herbert. So I would lean more toward McConkie being more like Godwin than I would Keenan Allen at this point, because I think Allen's going to take a significant step back. The answer to all these questions are different for me. If you would, if in the projections, if you would use somebody other than Godwin, as we talked about a lot like it's that wide receiver 18 to 30 range or 18 to 29 or 18 to 31 but somewhere in there and for me godwin's in that range um and there's about a point per game difference in like a tear break right there after him or after the guy right behind him in the projection. So there's a pretty big difference between Godwin

and the other guys that we talked about yesterday for me in terms of projection and definitely everyone here. But there's not a big difference between Jaden Reed and Christian Watson. Yeah, Terry McLaurin and Jordan Addison? None of the, no. Okay, how about the two guys that are... Addison's by far my least favorite in this group,

so yes, but nobody else. How about the two guys that are being drafted much earlier than the ranking? That would be Neighbors and Flowers. Is there a big difference between Neighbors and Flowers and Deontay Johnson, Ladd McConkie, Rasheed Rice, Christian Watson, Jordan Addison, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins?

100%. Not for me, no. There's half the guys in this group that I would draft before neighbors. And I think Flowers and Rice are very similar. Okay. Yeah, I think Watson sort of reminds me of those guys just in terms of he could really, you know, neighbors, Flowers, Watson, maybe you're hoping for, sort of reminds me of those guys just in terms of he could really, you know,

neighbors, flowers, Watson, you, maybe you're hoping for, they have just a super efficient year and can overcome maybe in the case of flowers and Watson, especially overcome low targets or whatever the case may be, but maybe they're the explosive guys in this group.

I don't want to say Addison's not explosive. He is as well. Addison's fascinating for me just because of the Hawkinson injury. It's easy to write off the quarterback situation and say it's going to be worse because we expect it to be worse, which is understandable. But if Darnold is Nick Mullins, or if McCarthy comes in and is legit,

Addison could be a superstar. I could not find a rookie quarterback that produced two top 24 wide receivers. And I may have missed one. Stroud. Well, he didn't, but he did. He's obviously, I was going to say, Stroud got two per game, Nico and Dell,

but not overall. But even when they were both on the field at the same time, they were amazing. Who? Purdy. Purdy. Well, he only played six games as a rookie. Yeah, I mean, you know, it's probably splitting hairs

because Debo was hurt for a good portion of that. I don't think I would say Purdy. Like, Herbert did not. Burrow did not. He didn't have Jamar Chase as a rookie. He had Boyd and Higgins. You know, like, Andrew Luck did not. Burrow did not. He didn't have Jamar Chase as a rookie. He had Boyd and Higgins. You know, like Andrew Luck did not.

He had a rookie T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne. Yeah, but again, I don't think based on the ADP and where we have him ranked, anybody's expecting Addison to be that good. But is this like might be also a Keenan Allen discussion too. Like Caleb Williams, like which of those three guys is he going to support? Yeah. It doesn't mean it can't happen, by the way. You know, it would have happened last year.

You'd have to think if both Stroud and Nico had stayed healthy. So I'm sorry, Dell and Nico had stayed healthy with Stroud. True. And I think easily, I mean, just based on how it looked. Huge sample size. Pittman and Josh Downs. Yeah. All right. Let me give you some quick news and notes here, and then we'll start breaking down these players individually. Josh Allen of the Jaguars, defensive lineman.

He is now Josh Hines Allen. So there will be no more Josh Allen sacks of Josh Allen. He is now Josh Hines Allen. Dak Prescott says his ankle is fine. This is, I think, nothing as far as we're concerned. He was in a walking boot. All he did say is getting older. The ankle gets a little sore sometimes.

It's the one he had surgery on, but I don't think anyone's downgrading him. Mark Cabali of The Athletic thinks that Steelers running back Cordero Patterson will likely have a bigger role than just special teams. You know, he went in round 18 of our Scott Fishbowl mock draft after Malachi Corley and Kalief Raymond of the Jets and the Lions respectively. We're talking about Cordero Patterson here is a terrific return man. So if you have leagues that count return yards, Patterson's someone that's that's obviously

interesting. But I know he's not like I know he's not going to be good enough for fantasy if you don't count return yards. But is he going to screw things up for Najee Harris and Jalen Warren? I mean, it's Arthur Smith, so he probably will. But to what extent, we'll find out. I think this is going to be interesting to see. We saw a little shift in Mike Tomlin's philosophy last year, which has always kind of been a bell cow running back where Warren got the opportunity to play a significant amount, not just on passing out situations.

If you look at what Arthur Smith did last year with his top two guys, there's an opportunity here, I think, for both those guys, Harris and Warren, to get 200 carries, which would make Warren that much more attractive. But Patterson, I think, is probably looking at 30 to 50 carries. Okay. I guess I could deal with that. Yeah, I wonder if it's...

I wonder how much of it's in the passing game, too. Like, he plays so many different positions, and they've got one wide receiver. Well, Leonard Fournette also wants to play this season intends to play. So if you're in a dynasty league and you're making your roster cuts right now, like ours, Hey,

maybe don't, maybe don't cut Leonard Fournette. I don't know. All right. Well, he's got one landing spot that makes him relevant. Dallas. Yeah.

We will be right back on fantasy football today. We'll start talking about Deontay Johnson. When we come back, whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference security in Canada gives you that coverage for more than 65 years. Security in Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially,

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Smartwater is a simple one. Deontay Johnson is up now. He is wide receiver 36 in our PPR consensus rankings. He's wide receiver 40 in average draft position on CBS. And again, I know it's a lot of names, but the seven names we're going to get to Johnson, McConkie, Rishi Rice, Christian Watson, Addison, and then the 32-year-olds, Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins. That's how it's ranked, 36 through 42. I think Deontay Johnson is someone I've had no interest in drafting, but then getting ready for this show and thinking about it,

I said, no, that's dumb. I should have interest in drafting him. You know, he could definitely be. I draft him everywhere. You do? Yes. How come? Because the cost is so cheap and the upside is still there.

Is it? That's what, what is the upside? Because I feel like he's more of a floor play. I mean, I'm thinking more upside as a fantasy option, not necessarily from a numbers perspective. I think he could still be a top 30 receiver. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you can draft him as a 40-ish guy.

But not top, he doesn't have like top 15 upside. The touchdowns will probably have to be there for him, which is obviously something that's escaped him for a good portion of his career. But, you know, look, it's easy to crap on Bryce Young and everything that happened last year. You know, Dave Canales comes in and this is the guy that they targeted, you know, to go out and get and bring in to be their number one receiver. And you have a very old Adam Thielen, who still played very well last year. I mean, let's give him credit for what he was able to accomplish.

But this receiving core is an interesting one. Xavier Leguette doesn't necessarily feel like a go-to guy. He feels like more of a gadget type of player who could develop into something. But I think from a target perspective, you know, this is a guy that has commanded targets in his career. He's played with some crappy quarterbacks, as we know, after Roethlisberger retired and he still put up decent numbers. And so, you know,

if you look at what Canales has done with the receivers that he's worked with as an offense coordinator, I mean, you know, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were still very good. Obviously Mike Evans and Chris Godwin put up good numbers last year. Evans more so than Godwin. And so Deontay Johnson's got an opportunity here in an offense that's going to look different and hopefully play different and play at a much higher level. They upgrade the offensive line tremendously. So I think Deontay Johnson, based on his value, is almost a steal. Yeah, I think the really interesting thing,

because we saw the targets fall just a little bit last year, but the ADOT went way up. He was 7, 8, 9. He had one year of double-digit ADOT in his first four seasons, and then 12.7 last year. Well, there's a little bit more upside if you can have an ADOT of 12, and he still had five yards after the catch per reception, which is where he was when he was a low 8-out guy.

So I do think he's ranked almost exactly where I have him in our consensus rankings, but that's about three or four spots higher than what his ADP is. So I like the value. That's Deontay Johnson here. His big play rate, his explosive play rate among wide receivers with 50 or more targets in five seasons. And there's usually about 80 to 90,

as I mentioned. 70th, 81st, 75th, 84th, awful. And then last year, 38th. This is what I've been talking about. Higher ADOT leads to more big plays. So yeah, I hope we can see that. But I think the conversation about Deontay Johnson is I consider him a floor play. Jamie talked about top 30 upside. Joe Lynn says, at this range, isn't a floor guy, this is in our chat, pretty valuable? And that's kind of what I was driving at here.

It's like, he may not win you your league, but he may not leave your lineup in a three receiver league. It depends on how you're drafting. If you were somebody who's kind of going with the flow of this year and you've got three wide receivers in the first six rounds, I'm not sure how valuable floor guy is. If you're somebody who thinks I'm going to zig while everybody else is zagging and you take a couple running backs early and maybe an elite quarterback and an elite tight end, and then you're trying to just mismatch or put your wide receiver core together in these rounds, then yes,

I'd like Deontay a lot better if I'm drafting him honestly as my third wide receiver than I would as a fourth or fifth. Okay. Which might be a weird thing to say, but I don't really, I don't really care about his four that much if he's on my bench. That's a good point. Okay.

But we do kind of see him as someone with sort of capped upside he's not he doesn't have christian watson upside he definitely doesn't have christian watson upside but i think he has chris godwin upside yeah okay uh do me a favor jamie take us to lad mcconkey i have to hop off for 30 seconds sorry folks be folks. Be right back. I mean, we're looking at a guy that was, you know, brought in to hopefully replace Keenan Allen, you know, and that's kind of, I think the narrative, which makes sense, you know, as, as a slot receiver, at least expected to play the slot and the receiving core that, you know, again, like I said, it has a blank canvas to it. So Keith, I don't know how you feel about the, the other guys for the chargers and, you know, there's

different ways you can go here with, you know, of people like josh palmer based on his cost and you know being the the quote-unquote veteran of the group um from a you know rapport standpoint with justin herbert but you know quentin johnston and what happened to him last year and how he struggled and you know the bringing in of somebody like dj charke who you know has clearly had some good moments but has fallen off really since jacksonville so when you look at McConkie, Heath, how do you sort of approach drafting him? To me, again, he feels like a Chris Godwin, Deontay Johnson type of player

who can be a high volume reception guy, but I don't know where the touchdowns necessarily end up and how high the ceiling is. The thing that I struggle with him on is he made some big plays down the field at Georgia, and he made some big plays after the catch at Georgia and he made some big plays after the catch at Georgia so I think he might have a little bit more upside I he is and I saw Mr. uh I clicked the wrong one Mr. Popinski said in the chat like lad going before Palmer,

Chark and the rest is wild to me well I would he's my my highest rated Chargers wide receiver or highest ranked but I'm quite I'm I'm well behind what his ADP is he'sgers wide receiver or highest ranked, but I'm quite, I'm, I'm well behind what his ADP is. He's my wide receiver 42. I think he's going 34th at the position. I like Palmer a lot better at cost than I do McConkie, but I think it's what might be. He might is one of those rookie wide receivers that I could see ends up on the waiver wire in a handful of leagues early in the season. And then in the second half really kind of takes off. I do think he has a little more big play potential than somebody like Deontay Johnson. Here are some Greg Roman stats.

10 seasons as an offensive coordinator. Greg Roman's team... Make sure you get this right because Dave screwed it up yesterday. Did he? The Lamar Jackson. What did he say? Best wide receiver once.

Oh, oh. Ten seasons. Oh, I forgot Marquise Brown. Well, yeah. Ten seasons as offensive coordinator. Greg Roman's teams have been bottom five in pass attempts nine times. Bottom two in pass attempts six times. Thrown more than 23 touchdown passes

only twice. Both were in Baltimore. But it's actually not that bad. They've been top 20 in touchdown passes in six of 10 seasons. Top 23 in touchdown passes, nine times. So their touchdown rate's

probably been pretty good. But bottom six in gross passing yards in eight of 10 seasons. Gross is accurate. Yeah. But top 12 in scoring in seven of 10 seasons and two of the three times they didn't finish top 12 Greg Roman offenses in scoring where the two seasons Lamar Jackson got hurt halfway through.

There's a little validation for my having the chargers with too many touchdowns a week or two ago. Yeah. I like that. Thank you. Thank you. I feel better about that. His resume is really good, and he's done it with Colin Kaepernick,

Tyrod Taylor, and a terrific player, obviously, in Lamar Jackson. They've produced a top 15 wide receiver only twice, though. One top 12 wide receiver on a per-game basis. How about just top 24 wide receiver in 10 seasons for Greg Roman as offensive coordinator? Top 24 and per game, five times. Michael Crabtree, Anquan Bolden twice, Sammy Watkins, and Marquise Brown. That's not bad. I mean, for a guy that passes so little to have a top 24 receiver in half of

his season, it's not terrible. And I think it might even be better than that because in Baltimore, there were several really good tight end seasons when Greg Roman was the offensive coordinator. And currently, the Chargers tight ends are Hayden Hurst and Will Disley and Stone Smart. Yeah, he's had a top five tight end five times. Mark Andrews four times, Vernon Davis once. And let's, okay, is he gonna,

do you guys think they're gonna be bottom five in pass attempts this year? There's certainly the potential for it. I hope not. That would be so dumb. The personnel just does not justify that. Well, I mean, you know, you say that. Outside of Herbert, really, is that the case?

They made it just... They intentionally went that direction. Because it feels like as crappy as the running back group is, the receiving core is just as crappy but get but keep in mind when they're when they're finishing bottom five and rush attempt in past attempts uh nine out of ten seasons they always have a quarterback who runs the ball a lot so right that's that's the biggest difference you know and i think people forget about harbaugh actually coaching andrew luck you know that's a that's a big big piece of the puzzle like when he had a quarterback who could throw it, he threw it. How much of that will change

when he had Colin Kaepernick and Roman has had Lamar Jackson? I think we're going to see more passes than we anticipate, but the potential for them to be bottom five is there. I think if Arbaugh has his way, they're going to be

run the ball, ball control, keep your defense fresh, and win games that way. But I don't know if that's necessarily how it will all play out. I have Justin Herbert projected for the seventh fewest pass attempts and a career-high 81 rush attempts. Yeah, makes sense. When you look at this range of receivers that we're talking about, do you think Deontay Johnson, Ladd McConkie, Rasheed Rice, and Keenan Allen are sort of similar? Rice is such a different—I wouldn't include him here. I just mean as players.

Yeah, you can't. Rice is only here because of the suspension, looming suspension. Okay, and then Christian Watson, Jordan Addison and DeAndre Hopkins are sort of similar as players? No okay you don't think why do you say no?

I think Christian Watson's very, not a unicorn but very close to a unicorn, there's just not a lot of similar you can't put Christian Watson in a bucket with very many wide receivers. I guess I'm thinking of more like they're sort of outside receivers,

vertical threats, probably more big play potential, whereas with Deontay, McConkie, and Keenan Allen, we're relying more on catches. Yes, that does make sense if you're doing that. The thing I think for Watson, it's almost similar to Rice. If you said right now Watson is playing 13- 13 plus games he's probably a top 20 receiver who

watson christian watson yeah yeah you can lump these guys in different ways for sure okay so deontay johnson or lab mcconkey who do you guys prefer uh deontay johnson but it's like they're like backback for me. All right, let's go to Rishi. I think that kind of goes back to what Heath was saying. If you're in more of a, I need more upside play, I'd probably go with McConkie. If I need more of a safer play, I'd probably go Johnson. Jamie, let's talk about Rishi Rice then and why,

I know it's obvious, but why you think he's in a different discussion if not for the suspension? We kind of discussed this yesterday with hollywood brown like if if you were to say rice is not getting suspended you know he's just getting a warning or slap on the wrist whatever the case may be for for everything that transpired then i think people are viewing him as at least a top 30 receiver you know clearly more competition this year based on what he had last year because the receiving core and everything around him was completely different so you bring in hollywood, you draft Xavier Worthy in the first round, you know,

the expectations are that those guys are going to have big opportunities and big target shares. So Rice loses a little bit, but if there's no suspension, I think he said this and I agree, you know, you're, you're drafting him as the number one chiefs receiver based on how he finished last year and how he performed because rookie wide receivers, they tend to take the next step. And especially somebody picking up this offense as quickly as he did. Um, the opportunity is there for him to, you know, hopefully be, you know, the next, you know, star chiefs wide receiver, like we've had with Tyree kill, not the same level, but just, you know, performance wise, um, with the suspension, you know, and again, we don't know what it could be. Could be two games,

could be four games, could be more. Um, If in fact he does get suspended, then you're talking about the risk of when do you want to buy into him and the potential of Brown and Worthy running away with being the top two guys in the pecking order, at least for the season. So I think that's why you're drafting him here in this range. range you know still probably his his variance will will be a little bit all over the place you know depending on the type of format you're in best ball dynasty startup all those type of things um but for me you know i i think again it comes back to you're in this range what does your receiving core look like if you need to try and swing for the fences at this point it's a great swing for the fence uh muted heath you are muted i i do that just for you um we talk about this a lot that it's really dangerous to use partial season splits because a 17 game season is a terribly small sample size anyway but the one place where you can justify it is with rookie wide receivers

because we have seen a lot of rookie wide receivers explode in the second half of the season. And then that just carries over Amon Ross St. Brown, maybe one of the more infamous ones, Justin Jefferson, like the guys just really hit it in the second half. And then it turns out they actually are stars. There's a couple of them here, his last 10 games. So from week 7 on, Rasheed Rice's 17-game pace, 99 catches, 1178 yards, 8 touchdowns. After their bye, from week 11 on, his pace, 114 catches, 1360 yards, and just 7 touchdowns.

He became such a huge part of this offense, and it shows up in the snap counts, too. He had one game where he played more than half the snaps the first six weeks of the season. He was two-thirds or higher after the bye every game. Rasheed Rice, in his last six games, was the number eight wide receiver per game in PPR, number 12 per game in half PPR. I don't have Mahomes' stats during those six games, but Mahomes just didn't have a good year by his standards. Here's, I think, my concern with Rice, and tell me if you share it.

He had a 4.8-yard ADOT. He was, I mean, that's borderline gimmicky, you know? And it's just so reliant on targets. And they want to. I mean, obviously, they've said it, and their actions have shown us they want to throw the ball more downfield. You never want to just assign

an ADOT to a guy. It could change. But I wonder about that, because that's unbelievably low. But it also could help him, though, too. Right. And it's a little bit help them though, too. Right. And it's a little bit, I don't know if you, I mean, you didn't say the wrong thing, but I think it's a little bit wrong to say that's so reliant on targets because it's not in the same way that a Deontay Johnson or a Chris Godwin or a Keenan Allen is because

he averaged 8.3 yards. Yak after the catch or after per reception, yak per reception, eight yard. Like he was, he was like Isaiah Pacheco. Once he had the ball on his hand, just like running through defenders.

So it wasn't like he was catching eight yard slants and then picking up nine yards, 175 times. Yeah. All right. right it's it's encouraging stuff uh he and addison you wish you could just sort of buy into their rookie seasons and expect big things they both had really good rookie seasons but they both have very different circumstances going into their second season and we're going to talk about addison shortly we will take a break we have christian watson addison keenan We will take a break. We have Christian Watson,

Addison, Keenan Allen, and DeAndre Hopkins up next. We'll be right back on fantasy football today. I am so dreading groceries this week. Why? You can skip it. Oh,

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you like Watson better. You're not a big Addison guy. So, yeah, talk about these two. I'm a little scared of the Addison situation because I'm just afraid they might not have good quarterback play until TJ Hawkinson gets ready to go also, and then the target crunch. But, no, I think you said it best.

Christian Watson has teased us. I don't see a huge difference between him and Jaden Reed. If you told me that I could bet on one of those guys being a top 24 wide receiver, I'd kind of like that. But I had no idea which one it's going to be. Enormous big playability, some usage his rookie year in the running game. He's had the hamstring issues that are well-documented. Maybe not everybody's heard this. It's listening this time of year, so we should at least say it. He's gone and had some research done, and they found out that one of his hamstrings

was like 15% bigger than the other one, so they did some work to even the hamstrings out. Apparently, that's often a cause of why people have hamstring issues, because one of them wants to go a lot faster than the other one does. And that's supposed to be fixed now. So the asymmetrical hamstring fix, hopefully something that works for a lot of players in the future. If he plays 17 games, he's going to probably obliterate his ADP. Imagine how much bigger his big hamstring was than one of my hamstrings.

Imagine how much bigger his little hamstring was than one of your hamstrings. Yeah, it's a, it's a good point. Uh, Jamie, how do you see Christian Watson versus Jordan Addison? I mean, he'd said it best, you know, the, the upside certainly favors Watson. It'd be a different conversation. I think, you know, like what he's talked about, um, for quarterback play and, and Hawkinson, if it was still Kirk cousins, you know, and we had the, the it was still Kirk Cousins, you know, and we had the veteran quarterback coming back healthy Kirk Cousins, you know, based on what we saw from

from Madison last year, the offense favors Addison, you know, and just in terms of he doesn't have as much competition for targets that says a lot because of the superstar that he plays with. I mean, there are four guys in this Packers offense that in this passing game that feel like they all could be targeting, you know, to be the number one guy trending to be the number one guy. You know, they're they're all in the mix and to varying degrees, you know, but but you get the point that Jordan Love likes to spread the ball around. Whereas I think there'll be more concentrated targets for Addison, especially if there's a populist situation for Hawkinson and he may miss half the year. I mean, you know, go back to our conversation with Marty and the concern that he has over Hawkinson, our injury guy that we had on a few weeks ago, uh, the concern over, you know, uh, Hawkinson

and when he's able to play. So again, if Darnold and or McCarthy are good, Nick Mullins level good, that's, that's, that's the level they have to get to. Then Addison is going to probably be one of the steals of the draft. But you're asking a lot of that because we've never seen that from Donald. And we have no idea what McCarthy is going to be that type of volume passer with any success. So Watson for me is the easy call. I do think like I've got Deontay wide receiver 37, Watson wide receiver 38. And this is like the perfect combo of how many wide receivers do I have on my team right now? Because I'd much, much rather have Christian Watson on my bench, but Deontay Johnson as my wide receiver three.

Watson will probably be one of my biggest risers, rankings risers, because as he trends healthier at the start of the season, I'll feel more and more excited about it. Because again, this is the type of guy that when you draft him, if he stays healthy, will win you a league. Or if we get a week of training camp where Christian Watson's limited with a hamstring, Jaden Reed might be our biggest riser.

Correct. It probably would be the other guys. I don't see Reed moving that much. Addison, though, we shouldn't discount his upside, I guess, not that you were. But he's in the 900-yard club. He did it as a rookie, which is a great sign. 911 yards, 10 touchdowns in 17 games.

Kind of a cheater, though, right? Why, 17 games? It was like the 900-yard club was a 16-game thing, and we have a very little sample of the guys who just barely got there in 17 games. I think Devante Smith just barely got there in 17 games, I think. But you're right. It is a pretty small sample. Let me see Devante Smith. And he had obviously a big second season. He had nine, no, yeah, 916 yards in 17 games. For Addison, it was 911 yards in 17 games. And he was a big factor in the red zone and the green zone and the end zone. In fact, he led his team in all of

those targets. Red zone, green zone, and end zone targets in the seven games that Addison played with Hawkinson and a healthy Justin Jefferson. Addison led the team in green zone and end zone targets, and he was second in red zone targets. It was pretty even, but that's still impressive for a rookie. I just don't really know what to make of him.

I just, I'm like never enthused to draft him, but he's good. He's a really good player. I don't want to completely discount him, but boy, hard to project. And I wish I had Jacob Gibbs here because I don't have the exact numbers,

but I believe he had kind of similar splits in terms of targets per route run with when Justin Jefferson was there. And when Justin Jefferson wasn't. It was very much almost all touchdowns when Jefferson was healthy. Yeah, but again, I forget who we were talking about yesterday. Oh, Flowers. When you look at how the season unfolded, we see these guys trending up at the end of the season.

He loses cousins and Jefferson is out and then comes back, you know? So it's like so hard to gauge, you know, which type of player is he going to actually become? Yeah. So for Addison, we can end it on this, but for Addison, he had four different samples in my mind, four stretches, first five games with cousins and Jefferson next three games with cousins, with no Jefferson next five games, Cousins and Jefferson, next three games with Cousins with no Jefferson, next five games, no Cousins or Jefferson.

Jefferson played like four snaps or something in one game. And then the last four games with no Cousins, but with Jefferson. So you never, you didn't see, and Hawkinson was there for basically the entire season. So I don't really know that there's anything from last year that we can take and apply it to this year.

I mean, the fact that he scored 10 touchdowns is pretty exciting, despite that mess. And the reason I say that is this is what this offense is. Like, you know, you can sit here and say, well, the Chargers, they're changing their entire receiving core. I don't know what you have the Vikings projected for. Obviously you said Herbert's seventh lowest uh reception or past temps they're gonna throw the ball i mean kevin o'connell's made no qualms about it they are going

to throw the ball despite the quarterback change and that's the fun part about this receiving core is while the targets will probably be ugly there's gonna be a different quality of target for jefferson for addison for Hawkinson when he's healthy. Again, the strength of this team is in their receiving core. You can say, okay, Aaron Jones is an upgrade over Alexander Madison. I hope so, but they're not going to all of a sudden morph into a run team. They're going to still be a very pass-friendly team, and that's going to help the receivers. You said that you have a lot of Deontay Johnson. You're drafting him everywhere because you love the value on Deontay Johnson. Do you feel that way about Watson or Addison? Do you have draft them a lot?

Draft a lot of Watson. I mean, you know, I think between best ball and the drafts playing out, I have Watson on almost everyone and Deontay Johnson probably on 70 percent. So, you know, Keith was talking about, you know, how he doesn't like to have Johnson as a fourth or fifth receiver. I don't mind that because, again, I think I'm probably just a little bit more optimistic. And Watson, again, to me is a game wrecker, you know, so. And I think he was sort of alluding to this a little bit earlier, you know, about depending on what you need for your team. It's not a bad if you're on an end to take the two of them. Because if Watson flops, you have Johnson as the fallback option if you're going as your third or fourth receiver.

In a lot of cases, for me, it's my fourth and fifth. Okay, last thing. I'll just wrap it up on this with Jordan Addison. His ADP on CBS is high. It's wide receiver 32. On Fantasy Pros and on Draft Sharks, Addison is like wide receiver 41 or 42. So he's about 10 spots higher in our very early CBS average draft position PPR. Okay, let's finish up Heath with Keenan Allen and

DeAndre Hopkins, the old guys. And Allen, I think it's very obvious. You could just look at his numbers and say he was great last year and really good when he was healthy the year before Hopkins, you know, you, I think you have to get into the per route data because he just, he didn't, he ran very few routes, uh, for a guy who played all the time. The Titans just didn't run a lot of routes last year. So it's, it's less, it's harder to see there with Hopkins. People are going to think he's more in decline, but how do you evaluate Allen and Hopkins? You know, my evaluation, this has happened with some players over the last couple of weeks because Jacob Gibbs is doing such a great job with the newsletter. It changed a little bit just looking at the stats that he had on Hopkins, the advanced stats. And I'll try to look these up when

Jamie's talking and I'll read them off in just a minute. I think Hopkins is still good too. And so I actually move Ridley and Hopkins a little bit closer together after reading the newsletter. I still have Ridley ahead of Hopkins by probably eight spots. But you look at the per route data and we think there's going to be a lot more routes this season. I think you should expect DeAndre Hopkins to be pretty good as well. Keenan Allen is so interesting to me because I think he's the perfect wide receiver for what the Bears need Caleb Williams to learn to do, and that is get the ball out on time. But that's also something that Caleb Williams really did not do

very often in college. He likes to make the big play, and he likes to hold on to it, and he likes to scramble, and he probably doesn't like to take sacks, but he does take a lot of them. So I don't really have doubts about Keenan Allen's talent. There was no – I say a lot of times if an older wide receiver shows you that they're not that good anymore, believe them. Keenan Allen didn't show us that.

That's not why he's ranked at wide receiver 40. It's because DJ Moore's really good, roma dunzey is really good and he's got a rookie quarterback who's not really hit the types of routes that keenan allen's gonna run jamie how do you see allen at hopkins i feel like are you out on them i'm out on them unless they fall and they don't hopkins tends to fall allen i think still draws a lot of, uh, love and understandably so, because, you know, again, you look at last year's stats, like he said, he didn't fall off his, his points per game was amazing. Uh, led all receivers and targets per

game. You know, that's hard to overlook at 31. Now he's 32, but he'd said it, you know, he's going to a new team. He's never played outside of the state of California from his home team, uh, including college and new quarterback. Now he adjusted to a new quarterback very well, but that was, you know, what, four or five years ago with, with Herbert. Um, so DJ Moore or dunes, a, uh, Cole commit the running backs. I mean, it's just a lot of mouths to feed in this offense and you're asking Caleb Williams to support, to support all of them. So, you know, for a guy that's basically lived in the nine-plus target range, I think that craters to maybe six, you know, and that's tough to overlook. Touchdowns aren't exactly the thing that's his calling card,

and so will that be a number that you can lean on? No. So if the receptions, you know, leave him and the yardage obviously along with it, then you're talking about a guy that could just be at best the number four fantasy receiver and that's what scares me so um for hopkins you know i think he said it you know i i think we're all kind of just saying okay ridley's the guy and hopkins is going to disappear at least that feels like the narrative i don't think that's the case which is why i'm a little bit concerned about ridley and then you also factor in tyler boy too you know it's not like he's just an afterthought. He's the guy that's played in this system before and with this coach before.

So how much of that will matter and how much will he steal from both those guys? So like I said, I like Ridley. I like Hopkins. I just don't want to reach for either one. And so if I get Hopkins at the right cost and he's easier to buy than Ridley is at this point, then I think you still take a chance on them. But they're older. And Father Time is,

as we all know, undefeated. Do you want to give those stats, Seath? So I've got four of them here. Last year, in terms of contested catch skills, Hopkins ranked 12th. In terms of yards per route run, he ranked 18th. In terms of ESPN's open score, he ranked 5th. And in terms of PFF's receiving grade, he ranked 19th.

Those are all considerably better than what Calvin Ridley did last year. But that wasn't really the point. It's the fact that that's four different metrics that show DeAndre Hopkins was a top 20 wide receiver. In terms of his actual skill, if they bring this offensive system where we're throwing the ball 575, 620 times in a season, then DeAndre Hopkins might just be a top 20 wide receiver.

Hopkins also looked kind of done in 2021. He just had a bad year. He didn't get targeted that much. From what I'm seeing here on Fantasy Pro's 2022 ADP, he was wide receiver 34 in ADP. He was being drafted 83rd overall. And he, I think, was a top 12 receiver.

He had a very strong bounce back year in 2022. He's a lot like Stefan Diggs. They both kind of like... Diggs was better overall, but he struggled at the end of 2021. And he had a in 2022. He's a lot like Stefan Diggs. They both kind of like Diggs was Diggs was better overall, but he struggled at the end of 2021 and he had a great 2022. Then he struggled at the end of 2023 Hopkins, obviously not coming off a good year. I don't know if he can bounce back, but he has done it before.

Cause I think people were writing him off. People wrote him, people wrote him off in the Osweiler year. And then he was like freaking amazing after that. But that was, I will just say like the fact that he did what he did last year, And then he was freaking amazing after that. I will just say the fact that he did what he did last year in that environment, he still had a 28% target share. He had 1,000 yards receiving on a team that threw for 3,500 yards, and he caught seven of their 14 touchdown passes.

Seven of their 14 touchdown passes. Seven of their 14. Jeez. He also had one game with 34.8 points. It was four catches, 128 yards, and three touchdowns for DeAndre Hopkins. That was Levis' first game, right, against Atlanta? Yes. And couldn't keep that going.

So, yeah, all right. We've made it clear. These guys have not faded in terms of their skills. It's obvious for Keenan Allen. It's less obvious for Hopkins, but it's there. You should know that. Now my question is, do you guys think, and let me, let me say that I feel like 32 is actually a pretty dangerous age for wide receivers. Like 31 seems like, you know, I've seen some good years, 32. I've seen like Julio Jones, I think, collapsed at this point in his career. And there are others. But are you more worried about one of them showing their age, Hopkins or Allen?

If it's from showing their age, I would be more concerned about Hopkins than I would Allen because of the roles that they play. Yeah, I completely agree. Yeah, I completely agree. Yeah, I don't have a huge concern. And just speaking of elite wide receivers, and this is probably better for Keenan Allen than it would be for DeAndre Hopkins in terms of comparisons,

but my good friend and one of my all-time favorites, Larry Fitzgerald, had three terrible years in a row. And then at 32, 109 catches for 1,215 yards and six and nine touchdowns led the NFL and catches the next year had 109 catches the next year. And I do think though, if you're using that as a reference though, that would benefit Alan more so than Hopkins because that's when Fitzgerald

became the big slot receiver for Bruce Ari arians and julian edelman too that's who i've always compared keenan allen to um edelman at age like 31 through 33 or 32 through 34 was basically just like a worst little worst version of keenan allen so i feel like you just start comparing them because of that age difference though right like what do you mean you think keenan allen's a lot better than julian Edelman was. Yeah, but I'm saying that slot receiver who's great at getting open seems to be the type of player that

might age well. We don't have a lot of sample here, but might age well. The early indications out of Tennessee, and this could change, but the early indications when the coaches have talked about it are that Ridley's the guy that's going to move around, and Hopkins is the guy that's just going to stay outside. That could change, but that's the expectation

and part of the reason that I like Ridley more than Hopkins. Okay, question here. Let's compare Deontay Johnson, who's 36th in the rankings, 40th in ADP, and DeAndre Hopkins, who's 42nd in the rankings, 45th in ADP. Both of them were on pretty brutal passing games last year. I'm going to assume, how much more confidence do you have in Will Levis than Bryce Young at this point?

20% more confidence. Okay. I had no idea how to answer that question so i'll go 20 20 sounds fine i actually that was one of the guys that i moved hopkins ahead of when i moved him up a little bit recently so i've got hopkins just ahead of dionte i don't know how many people think about quarterbacks how much people think about quarterbacks i guess when they think about wide receivers but that's sort of a sneaky way yeah you should but, but like last year I gave the example of CD lamb. I didn't see Dak Prescott having the kind of year he had, but CD lamb, if you look at what he did in

2022, it was really good. It wasn't elite, but Dak Prescott kind of had a down season in 2022. You know, if we had expected Dak to bounce back, probably exceeded expectations. We probably should have thought Lamb would go with him. So I just, you know, I feel like with Deontay, like Bryce Young was so bad. He could really take a big step up. And then Levis obviously could too. And that could solve. I mean, they both got everything that you would like to see from an offseason perspective.

Maybe not to the heights of certain players being brought in. Like, yes, Calvin Ridley's been a good player. Yes, Deontay Johnson's been a good player. They're not necessarily, you know, Stephon Diggs or Tyreek Hill about what some of these other quarterbacks have gotten in terms of offseason upgrades. But they both got offensive coaches to come in that have had success helping quarterbacks and helping passing games.

They both got additional weapons. They both got offensive line upgrades, you know? So that's the reason why I think we're talking about these guys. You know, I know Heath likes Calvin Ridley. I can't imagine Heath would like Calvin Ridley, you know, if he was on a situation where everything around him didn't improve, you know, it, it, Deontay Johnson, everything around him improved, you know, from, from a standpoint, like he, he seemed as if he was trending in the direction of being the number two guy behind George Pickens and who knows what the quarterback situation, what situation was going to be in Pittsburgh. You know, now he's

in a situation where look, Bryce Young was bad and maybe one of the all-time bus, but he still was the number one overall pick. And hopefully there's still some life there and Dave Canales can resuscitate it and make him, you know, the type of player that he was and offensive line being upgraded and receiving court being upgraded. So that should help Johnson's cause. And Ridley, you know, look for me, it's more of a lateral move at best, you know, going from where he was in Jacksonville to where he is now in Tennessee. But like he said, you know, they're putting him in the, in the Jamar chase role. They're giving him an opportunity to still flourish and be that guy. They paid him like one of the alpha receivers in the league. So there's a lot to like about

Ridley still being in this situation, you know, but you're, you're still asking, you know, to your question, Adam, you're still asking Bryce Young to do something he's never done, which is make a receiver elite. You're asking, we'll have us to do something. Now, again, they're young, they're second year quarterbacks, but that's the hope that you're putting in these guys is that they can make these receivers to the point of where there must start fantasy options really is easier to buy than, than Johnson,

which I get, which is why he's being drafted and ranked higher. But, uh, still, you know, you're asking these young, unproven quarterbacks to support these guys.

And there's still other mouths to feed in their offenses as well. I think we can wrap it up right there. Thank you to Jamie. Thank you to Heath. And we've got rich rebar coming on tomorrow to get a little little advanced stats on you and we'll have jacob as well um coming up i think jacob's on vacation this week but we'll have jacob gibbs joining us we're gonna have some terrific advanced metrics all season long but jacob's like the king of that rich is great at that too so looking forward to

talking to him i don't think jacob's on vacation i think he's just writing seven million words every day about a different team for the newsletter. Oh, okay, okay. Fair enough. Those newsletters are terrific. Check them out. CBSSports.com slash newsletter.

Maybe newsletters. Try both of them. We will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football. Oh, vote for us. PodcastSports.com. Nominate us in the sports category. I do my job. All right, see you later.