Fantasy Football Today - WRs and TEs With Year 2 QBs (03/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: March 30, 2021We hope (and sometimes expect) to see QBs make big jumps in their second NFL season. If that's the case for Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa, which pass catchers would benefi...t most? We'll answer that after some brief NFL Draft talk (1:40). And as we get back to the topic of the day, what are our expectations for Burrow and Herbert in 2021 (2:15)? What could go wrong for Herbert and Keenan Allen? ... Let's start with the Bengals (13:10)! Why does Tee Higgins get drafted ahead of Tyler Boyd in PPR leagues? And as we look at the Chargers (19:40), should Keenan Allen be selected before D.K. Metcalf? Is Mike Williams - or anyone else on the team - a sleeping giant? ... On to the Eagles (30:00), who will lead the team in receiving in 2021? And what happens if they draft a WR? And finally, the Dolphins might be tricky to project for a variety of reasons (37:40). We'll talk about all of their relevant pass catchers and how to evaluate them if they draft Ja'Marr Chase or someone similar ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow the FFT in 5 podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google, or wherever you listen to FFT. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @CTowersCBS, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Follow 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
On his way to the end zone.
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Touchdown.
Oh, he's done it again.
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben.
Hello.
How are you today?
That is how Jamie told me to start the show.
How did it go?
How did I do?
Hello, everyone.
How are you today?
How was that?
That was wonderful.
Good.
Thank you.
So polite of you.
Thank you.
It was polite of me.
Yes.
I hope everybody out there is having a beautiful Tuesday.
Welcome to the show.
This is Fantasy Football Today. And we're going to talk about wide receivers with year two quarterbacks. You know,
we did see guys like even Mitchell Trubisky and Jared Goff just take these huge steps in year two,
whereas Baker Mayfield, and he took a step back. Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins. Lately,
it hasn't been so great. But the goal is, the idea is your two quarterbacks should be better than
they were as rookies, and that could be great
for wide receivers. Jamie and Dave
are here. Hi, guys.
What's going on?
What's going on? How are you?
What's up, man?
There's not a lot of news today.
There's only this one news item.
We're getting a breather. We're in that spot in between
free agency and the NFL draft
where there isn't a lot of massive transactional news
unless there's a trade like last Friday.
But everything now is going to be about the draft
and prospects and pro days.
And where should this guy rank in?
Where would this guy go?
All the BS.
All the smoke.
Yes.
So actually then, why don't we do this real quick?
Unplanned segment.
Tell me one prospect in one team, NFL draft, match made in heaven.
Go ahead.
Najee Harris, Atlanta Falcons.
Jamie?
That's a good one.
I'll go Travis Etienne, Miami Dolphins.
Okay, I'll take both of them.
The draft starts April 29th.
That is Thursday, April 29th.
We will have extensive coverage for you.
All right, so wide receivers with your two quarterbacks.
The four teams we're going to focus on here are Cincinnati,
the Chargers, the Eagles, and the Dolphins.
And let me ask you this.
Do you think that it's going to get better
for Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert?
Obviously, we can hope for Tua and Jalen Hurts to play better.
But Herbert in particular, it's going to be tough to beat what he did.
Let's do the same.
I'll be happy with the same.
Yeah.
Remember, he only did it in 15 games.
Now he's going to have 17.
Ooh.
He really limped to the finish line, though.
But do you think Burrow and Herbert,
what kind of seasons are you expecting from them?
Top 10 fantasy seasons.
From Herbert especially.
I think that having Lombardi come in
as the offensive coordinator,
I'm interested to see how Lombardi does
at his second chance to call plays
in the NFL and
to really lean on Herbert. I think the Chargers
are going to be smart and make it his offense
and just lean on his strengths. And he
proved last year that he can more
than handle that gig. And
Burrow didn't really prove it as
often as Herbert, partially because
he didn't play as much, but that offensive line will be
stronger. There's talk that they'll
add another receiver, too, to replace
A.J. Green. I think that Burrow,
as long as his knee is right,
could end up being phenomenal.
You know that I've been a fan of his for a long time.
I still love him. Even before
he was a prospect? Yeah,
back when he was nine years old. He was not
a prospect. Hanging out at the mall
and all that stuff. I was like, wow, that guy is just, he's got it.
Can I amend my answer to ETN to the Dolphins?
Kyle Pitts to the Chargers?
Kyle Pitts to the Chargers would be a lot of fun.
That would be a lot of fun.
Man, I'm trying to think.
What's the best rookie tight end season we've had in recent memory?
Have there been any that have been worth starting?
I mean, I think Gronk had a lot of touchdowns.
Wasn't Hunter Henry okay as a rookie?
Yes.
He might have been okay.
Yeah, didn't he have like eight touchdowns?
I think he had like 600 yards and eight touchdowns or something like that.
Right, and he hasn't really matched up to that since, it feels like.
Yeah, we've talked about it before, that just tight ends usually do not break out
in their first season.
It's year two,
478 yards and eight touchdowns for Hunter Henry and 15 games as a rookie.
So yeah,
I'm a sidetrack.
If Kyle Pitts goes to the chargers,
are you going to draft him as a top 12 guy?
Yes,
I would draft him as a top 12 guy with the expectation that I may not get a full fantasy
season of starting use out of him, but I would take that chance that that would be the case.
He will be one of the first 12 tight ends taken just because someone will grab him as
the hopes of being a breakout, the rare, rare breakout fantasy tight end,
the upside is going to be what pushes him into the top 12.
I don't know if that'll necessarily be the case
if he goes to a team that already has an established tight end
that could be on the way out,
that'll be drafted that way.
Right.
Well, we just got done talking about the Chargers
as a great spot for him.
They've got Jared Cook.
If you want a tight end that's on the way out,
you look no further than Jared Cook.
Actually, I think Jared Cook is a legitimate impediment
for a theoretical rookie tight end.
Yeah, but I mean, the thing about Pitts is that you're hearing is,
you know, he may not be pegged as a tight end.
He may be drafted as a hybrid receiver tight end,
you know, which is going to be real fun when it's time to franchise tag him.
But in any event, for, for you know our purposes and what
his lineup designation will be his position designation will be and obviously what the nfl
team designates him as that's what you want to keep an eye on but he's playing no matter where
he gets drafted okay well back to the topic at hand here there's there's you know something uh
with justin herbert that i wonder is if he's going to throw as often as he did they threw well over
600 times last year and their defense was really bad.
Their defense was also really injured.
So as we look at these wide receivers and Keenan Allen, who had a 27% target share,
and Keenan Allen played 14 games, but he left one of them early.
So you can do it one of two ways.
In his 14 games, he was on pace for 168 targets.
In his 13 healthy games, he was on pace for 177 targets.
And this is the topic of the show,
is these wide receivers with year two quarterbacks.
I see potential for things to go differently for Allen.
Don't expect the targets to be over 160.
I don't know.
That's just a lot.
No, I would say 140 is probably a good number.
Well, he's going to have to do better than he did last year
because he averaged a career low yards per catch.
And then the defense.
The defense could get better and should get better.
It could be great.
They lost incredible players last year.
This could be one of the best teams in the NFL.
I mean, it was the case when Rivers was playing well
toward the end of his tenure
when they started to build this defense.
It was the case with what we thought was going to be,
you know, this defense last year.
This team has a chance to be one of the best in the NFL.
Maybe not the best in their division
because they play with the Chiefs,
but certainly a playoff contender
and one of the teams you got to keep an eye on
if you're looking at it from whatever fan base you're part of.
But I think they got to stay healthy.
That's the biggest thing.
I mean, you know, you've seen now two years in a row with Derwin James.
Last year, Joey Bosa missed some time.
Melvin Ingram missed time.
They still have to figure out what they're going to do to replace Ingram.
There's some holes, but, you know, they've drafted really well.
You know, just coaching has been a little bit of an issue.
You got to like what they did with the offensive line, you know, on that side of
the ball, this team's going to be fun.
You know, I don't think this is, I know what you're getting at Adam.
I don't think this is going to be a, uh, uh, turn around and, and ball control and
hope your defense wins games.
Like we're going to see from the Patriots, you know, they're, they're going to let
Herbert play.
So he may not throw it 600 plus times, but you know, he's going to be close to that.
Lombardi was 70, 30, uh, with the pass run ratio in 2015. He also got fired mid season in 2015, the year to that. Lombardi was 70-30 with the pass-run ratio in 2015.
He also got fired midseason in 2015.
The year before that in Detroit, he was 62-38 pass-run.
And he comes from New Orleans.
They throw the ball a lot there.
I would be stunned if this team went run-heavy.
Yeah, the only thing I think, Dave, to just sort of counter that
is that was with Sean Payton.
We've got to find out if this coaching staff
has been allowing him
to do those things.
So I think it'll be interesting
to see how that goes.
But I think 60-40 at worst
if it's not 70-30.
You don't have Justin Herbert
and say,
let's make Austin Eckler
and Joshua Kelly
and Justin Jackson
the focal points of our offense.
You play to your strengths.
No, let's run more.
Yeah, but how
concerned are you, if at all,
about Justin Herbert having to
learn a new offense? It went
horribly for
the Giants, for Daniel
Jones, for Dwayne Haskins, new
coaching staffs, bad results.
It went great for Lamar Jackson
with Greg Roman, as Heath pointed out on an earlier
show, but you don't
love, oh, well, he's on his second
coordinator in two seasons. He's a young guy
who has to learn a new playbook in general.
Is that a concern for you?
If it was a dumb guy
at quarterback, I'd be concerned.
But didn't Herbert
major in biology?
I think he's a pretty bright dude.
I think he'll be able to handle a playbook.
I think he's also, Adam, you know,
if you want to talk about learning a playbook,
he had no off season.
He was thrown into the starting job
right before a game in week two.
And look how he picked things up and performed.
Oh, I think he's terrific.
Just, yeah, just, I like, you know,
I think we all would like continuity.
We like players going into their second year in a scheme.
We do see a jump sometimes in that regard.
But of all the guys that we're talking about here,
Burrow's the only one in the same system.
Oh, that's true.
I'm not sure what the Dolphins are doing.
All right, well, same coordinator.
That's fair.
Yeah, same play caller.
All right, so, okay.. It promoted. That's fair. Yeah, same play caller. All right, so, okay.
I'm a little scatterbrained.
Let's focus in here and talk about these four teams
and all of these wide receivers involved.
Cincinnati, the Chargers, the Eagles, and the Dolphins.
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All right, looking at these four teams here with sophomore quarterbacks,
which wide receivers, if any,
are you looking to make the biggest jumps with their quarterbacks?
Tee Higgins is the first name out of my mouth.
I think it'll be.
You know, you're looking at the software. I would hope so.
Yeah.
And what they can do.
Travis Fulgham, you know, just based on what he showed us when he got an opportunity, you know, hopefully he has a chance to get a bigger role.
You know, just looking at what this receiving core looks like. Of the guys who are currently on their teams, because
like you said, Adam, there's a chance
the Bengals add
another receiver. Obviously, the Eagles need to add some help.
I guess
if we're just looking at the receivers, it would be those guys,
but I'd also like to see Dallas Goddard
from the tight end spot take a big step forward
with Jalen Hurts as well.
Kosicki, too.
Yeah, and when you look at the Eagles guys,
Goddard in particular,
it wasn't very good with Rager.
You know, and...
And Hurts.
Why do they both have to be Jalen?
It wasn't very good with Jalen Hurts.
So we're very optimistic about Tee Higgins.
What word would you use to describe how you feel about the Eagles pass catchers?
Nervous.
Really?
You sounded more optimistic.
You sold it pretty well, Jamie.
I'm optimistic because it can only go up.
It can't go backwards.
It could go backwards, though.
Well, if it goes backwards, then they, you know,
Howie Roseman is looking for a new job,
and they need to probably overhaul everything once again.
And we sort of talked about this, Adam,
with your Lamar Jackson theory.
We want Jalen Hurts to run
for what he does.
But obviously, if you're invested
in any of the receivers, tight end,
et cetera, for the Eagles, you obviously want to see improved passing.
You know, can he be close to a 60% completion?
Can he get to close to 60% completions?
That would be a huge step forward for him as a pastor,
which would help those guys tremendously. But, you know,
clearly for what we're asking of Jalen hurts to give us fantasy production,
he's got to do it with his legs.
And so that's going to limit what those guys do as pass catchers.
It's to the T about what you're describing with the Ravens
and those pass catchers.
Okay.
Why don't we go team by team here?
Let's start with the Bengals.
And Tyler Boyd, I am going to just start calling him
the new Julian Edelman.
He should just start calling him Myler Boyd.
Why? Because I'm going to have him in every league?
You like him. Yeah, he's my guy.
I've decided this. Myler Boyd.
Yeah, I mean, he's
basically, look at his last three seasons.
He's had a quarterback injury
three years in a row.
That's significant here.
It was not as big of a deal
when it was Dalton, but he was a huge drop-off after the Burrow injury.
But when he's had a healthy starting quarterback,
he's 90 or more catches, sometimes 100 more catches,
like 1,100 yards, not a ton of touchdowns,
but an obvious must-start in PPR.
He's also benefited for a season and a half, at least,
of the number one receiver being hurt, too.
But he produced very well when A.J. Green was healthy.
The numbers 2018 were better when A.J. Green was there
in the first eight games.
But that also coincided with the quarterback situation, too.
Yeah, but he's got his niche.
I mean, he's like the slot guy.
He catches a ton of passes.
And the yards per catch isn't great.
He's Edelman.
He's my other boy, and he's Julian Edelman.
Does he need to have
another outside guy
to help him if he's not going to be pushed outside?
But he's got that already
with Higgins.
Another guy is what I'm saying.
I don't want another guy.
Doesn't have to be a John Ross type of
guy. Just a guy that's out there to
distract defenses. Doesn't have to be A.J. Green
who's going to command targets. It could be
somebody that has a
role, so it allows Boyd to play where he's
naturally supposed to play.
What do you think?
A.J. Green did have a ton of targets
last year, and both Higgins and
Boyd were very productive.
Joe Burrow
threw 41 times per game
before he got hurt in the Washington game.
Right, he was, what, number six or seven
in passing yards per game?
And he was probably number two in attempts per game,
something like that, right around, be up there.
But that also, again, coincided with bad defense,
which their defense should be slightly better.
Bad offensive line, which, you know,
is projected to be much better.
And Joe Mixon was not great to start the season.
And he got hurt.
Okay, so as you see it now,
do you think Tyler Boyd is going to be the consistent player
that he's been three straight years
when his quarterback has been healthy?
Or do you see more upside than that?
Or do you see more...
Where do you see Tyler Boyd?
I think his name is probably the safe answer
and the expectation you should have.
But if there isn't anybody
significant added, then you might expect a little more. An excellent number three PPR wide receiver,
a marginal number three receiver, non PPR. And you do have to worry if that offensive line becomes
a strength for the Bengals, then their run game is going to get better. Then they don't have to
throw as much and they don't need to throw as many short area targets. And he's a volume guy.
We need him to catch a lot of passes.
I think that's what you're looking at with Tyler Boyd
is someone who's upside from week to week
might be 15 PPR points,
but will have the occasional week
where he just does go off and helps you pull off a win.
Those are the types of guys that you love having
as number three receivers.
I understand drafting him as a number three receiver,
but I can make the case that he's better than that.
His PPR per game finish in the last three seasons,
20th in 2018, 26th in 2019, so just outside the top 24,
and 38th last year, but he was 16th per game when Joe Burrow was healthy.
This is the type of guy,
like go back to the mock drafts
that we referenced yesterday.
The way that I drafted,
this is the type of guy that I target for sure.
What does that mean?
I took three running backs in my first three picks.
This is the perfect guy to add to that type of roster.
So it's almost like a zero wide receiver strategy
where you want to load up on running backs.
I mean, yeah, to a certain extent, Dave, yes.
But I think it's more along the lines of, you know, you're missing on most likely getting
a second top 24 guy.
Like I got lucky with the two that I drafted in terms of my rankings.
I ended up with Amari Cooper and Deontay Johnson after starting with Eckler, Akers and Gibson.
So that was a amazing first five picks for me.
But if you take away Deontay Johnson
and put Tyler Boyd in that spot,
I'm still very content with that start.
Okay, T. Higgins finished as a top 30 wide receiver last year.
908 yards, six touchdowns in 16 games.
Had a great stretch with Joe Burrow. His first two games
were not good. His third game was two touchdowns, but only 40 yards. And then he went seven games
after that with Joe Burrow, including the game in which Burrow got hurt, where he had 554 yards,
two touchdowns on 56 targets. That's an 80 catch pace, 1,266 yards, five touchdowns. That was his pace. He averaged
15.8 yards per carry. He was really consistent 71 or more yards in five of six games, all from a
rookie, all from a rookie dealing with AJ green, also getting a ton of targets, which was annoying.
He had 77 targets in 10 games in the first 10 games of the season. And, um, that was,
and that was more.
That was 10 more than Tee Higgins had.
Is it really a no-brainer, though,
to take Tee Higgins ahead of Tyler Boyd in full PPR?
And Boyd, by the way, like Edelman,
is a guy who's going to be much better in full PPR, obviously.
But is it a no-brainer to take Higgins ahead of Boyd?
Ceiling versus four.
Yeah, I know.
It's the perfect way to put it.
Right, but is that a yes?
I mean, you can't always draft for ceiling.
Sometimes you got to draft for floor.
Well, I mean, I think it depends on, you know,
the round difference.
You know, if we're talking about round three
versus round five, then, you know,
or three versus six, then that's probably,
you know, I don't think he's going to be
that much better than him
based on what you see right now. But if you're talking about one round difference, then yeah,
I think I would take my chances with T Higgins because I think T Higgins
going to end up being around four pick.
I think boys going to end up being around six pick, you know,
so I'm okay with that. But I mean, yeah,
I don't think it's going to be that much of a, you know,
it's not going to be a situation where like it's.
It's probably going to be closer like a like a cup and wood situation, you know, where they're both going to end up being very good.
And I guess if you're looking at you want the value pick better, but, you know, if T.
Higgins hits, you know, we could be looking at the 2020 Calvin Ridley.
We could be looking at, you know, one of those type of guys, the 2019 Chris Godwin. You know, he has that type of type of upside. He could be a top 10 fantasy receiver.
Okay.
Let's move on over to the Chargers
and Keenan Allen. By the way, let me tell you where all these guys
went in the draft we did last week.
T. Higgins did go in the fourth round. He went with the last pick
of the fourth round. That's 48th overall.
Tyler Boyd, already highlighted yesterday,
was great value. He went with the third pick
of the seventh round. We look at the
Chargers guys and Keenan Allen was a round three pick. He went with the third pick of the seventh round. We look at the Chargers guys, and Keenan Allen was a round three pick.
He went right after DK Metcalf, Calvin Ridley.
It must have been a running back heavy draft,
and plus three tight ends in the first two rounds
because Metcalf, Ridley going in round three,
and then A.J. Brown, and then Keenan Allen.
Keenan Allen has been a top 12 PPR wide receiver
on a per game basis, four straight seasons.
In three of those four seasons,
Keenan Allen has been a top eight PPR wide receiver.
Extremely, I mean, he's like a better version
of Tyler Boyd, I guess.
A ton of catches, 1,200 yards is usually where he ends up.
And was on pace for
a career high in touchdowns
before he missed the last two games of the season.
And by the way, he's only missed
two games in his last four
seasons combined, and one of them was
COVID list.
So, yeah, do you think
that Keenan Allen should be drafted as a top 12
wide receiver? Absolutely.
Easily.
Do you think he should go ahead of Metcalf, top 12 wide receiver. Absolutely. Easily. Okay.
Do you think he should go ahead of Metcalf, Ridley, A.J. Brown?
I don't have an easier argument,
but I would take him ahead of Metcalf.
Who do you say?
Metcalf, Ridley, and A.J. Brown?
No, I would go Ridley and A.J. Brown over Keenan Allen,
but I would take Keenan Allen over Metcalf.
I feel the exact same way, but I wouldn't blame anybody
for doing the waiting game a little bit with Keenan Allen
versus those two guys because there are things that can go wrong
with Ridley and Brown where they could be volume for both of them.
Honestly, we know that Calvin Ridley may not be quite as great.
If Julio stays healthy for the whole season, we'll see.
Versus A.J. Brown, who doesn't have Johnnie and Corey Davis
to play off of anymore, and the Tennessee Titans
aren't exactly a bastion of passing.
So Keenan Allen is steady and he's safe,
and if you're getting him in that,
what are we talking about here in the PPR league?
Maybe between 20th and 30th overall?
I think you'd be thrilled.
Yes.
So, okay.
Yeah.
He went,
he's going to throw the ball 415 times and AJ Brown's going to have 200.
Well, well,
your lips,
are you worried about the career low yards per catch and second lowest
yards per target of Keenan Allen's career last year?
I mean, there's obviously some concern, you know, he's getting what?
He's 30.
He's late twenties, early thirties.
I think so.
Oh, I can look it up for you.
I got it.
I got it.
I got it.
I got it.
I got it.
He is 28.
He'll be 29 when the season starts.
So age shouldn't be a problem.
So, you know, it could just be one of those situations where it was, you know, new, new
quarterback, things are changing.
Um, you know, I w I wouldn't be concerned about it.
He's obviously not going to be a field stretcher.
That's not his game.
So he's a mid-range target.
He's obviously a PPR stud.
He plays inside.
He plays outside.
It's always a question with him is can he get somewhere in the eight touchdown range?
And so it seems like Herbert's going to lean on him a little bit more maybe in that regard.
But again, new coordinator.
We'll see what that means for him.
But as long as Keenan Allen stays healthy,
I think he's north of 140 targets,
always has a chance to lead the league in receptions,
and 1,200 yards is easily within reach.
Yep.
Are there any other Chargers wide receivers that you think
could be relevant this season?
And I must repeat, I don't think I said this on today's show,
but we can't lose fact,
lose sight of the fact that Hunter Henry is no longer on the team.
And he was second on the team and targets last year.
So Dave,
any other chargers wide receivers?
I wouldn't do anything more than throw the dart at Mike Williams with a late
round pick,
just as bench depth to see how he does the first month of the season. he didn't connect with Herbert the same way that Keenan Allen did the same way
that Hunter Henry did and I'm nervous that he's kind of pegged to this limited role of
downfield threat who doesn't necessarily get a lot of catchable consistent reliable targets on a
week-to-week basis and I don't know if they've got a number three guy that I would like anything
better than like dynasty dart throw like Tyron Johnson brought his name up on FFT and five
thought that he had a chance to maybe step into that number three role. We'll see if he does.
We'll see if they don't draft somebody and put them into that role. So I really think Keenan
Allen is just in a great spot to be the continued target hog there. And Mike Williams is at best a bi-week replacement receiver
with some potential to become a touchdown magnet
like we've seen from him on occasion.
If you're looking for a pattern,
he falls into the pattern of what we've seen
each of the last two seasons,
and hopefully it happens for him.
Devontae Parker was a high first-round pick that flocked,
and at the end of his rookie deal, he stepped up and played great.
Corey Davis last year was a high first-round pick who flopped,
and at the end of his rookie deal, he stepped up and played well.
Mike Williams has flopped so far as a high first-round pick.
Hopefully this is the year that things work out for him.
So, you know, maybe he's the third guy of this trio that we've seen,
and he can do the same thing. I think if you have Mike if you if you have Mike Williams 90, that's what you're hoping for. If you like Dave said, which I think is right, you want to take a later on flyer on him. That's what you do. And you know, you get maybe a Corey Davis types season where he's not going to be a consistent week in week out starter. Parker obviously was that a little bit more toward the end of the 2019 season. But if you can get Corey Davis's numbers out of Mike Williams this year, you'd be thrilled with that.
He had 10 plus PPR points in five of 15 games with Justin Herbert,
decidedly not Corey Davis numbers last year.
So if he steps it up this year and in terms of last year,
it's what Corey Davis did.
I agree.
Right.
And then turn it to last year.
Right.
I get what you're saying.
And I hope that it happens.
It would be great for Justin Herbert if that happens.
But in the case of Parker, we needed like an injury for him to really break out.
Corey Davis did not need an injury.
Yeah, that too.
But Corey Davis didn't.
And he did it in a low volume offense.
This will be a higher volume offense.
Right.
But it's also motivation of knowing now I got to play for money.
You know, money's on the line for Mike Williams.
Money was on the line for Corey Davis.
Money was on the line for Devontae Parker.
You know, and so.
Yeah, we talk about that a lot. That's something that we do see frequently
across the league. You know the pedigree is there. He was drafted that high for a reason.
Well, I'll tell you, he went in between two wide receivers in the draft we did.
Let me get your thoughts. He went in between Sterling Shepard and Emmanuel Sanders.
Shepard is easy to take in PPR
over Mike Williams because you've seen what he has
done when he's been healthy. So that's, that's easy. Sanders is, you know, I mean, I'll go back
to something Ben Gretsch said last year, you know, and it kind of, you know, ended up being the
opposite because of injuries. But if Michael Thomas stayed healthy for 16 games last year
and Drew Brees stayed healthy, what would Emmanuel Sanders have been? Because he didn't do much when
Thomas was on the field. When Thomas was off the field, he was fantastic.
You know?
So if you're looking for the ceiling play,
I don't think it's, it's,
it's Sanders,
but I would take shepherd over him.
Okay.
A couple more things I want to bring up here on the chargers.
They have the following picks in the NFL draft and the first 100 picks.
They have 1347 78 and they have one Oh nine as well.
So 13,
you know,
I'm not sure they're going to take a wide receiver
at 14 at 13 there might not be a lot of value there he's gone the other guys yeah and pits
could very well be there or pits could go in the top six or whatever uh we'll have to just have to
see um and believe it or not i mean this is interesting justin herbert had such a great year
and the team if you count the 208 yards from tyrod taylor the team threw for 4548 yards
and 31 touchdowns and did not have a thousand yard receiver keenan allen came just short of that
but with hunter henry gone i mean i don't know so you just figure if justin herbert develops
someone else is gonna put up big numbers unless he just really spreads it around and put up useful numbers, fantasy-relevant numbers.
So this, I think, is really a place we should be looking at.
I really, you know, it just makes sense.
If you're going to buy into Justin Herbert,
what's it going to be?
Is it just going to be Keenan Allen and Austin Eckler all year?
Somebody's going to have to do something here.
Cook, Williams, and Eckler will certainly be
significant factors in the passing game.
Obviously, you have to hope for, if you're drafting Eckler like I did
when I took him eighth overall, that you're expecting him to be
one of the leaders in receptions at the position
and continuing to be what he's been when he's been healthy.
So that's the hope.
But like Dave said, whether it's the other two kids, Guyton as well.
Guyton and Tyron Johnson.
Right.
Or K.J. Hill,
but Hill's more of a backup
to Keenan Allen.
Those two will have opportunities.
Donald Parham,
if he's the second tight end still,
will have opportunities.
It's not just going to be
one guy and then a second.
It's not like the Falcons
or it's not like
one of these teams,
the Rams,
that have two guys
that you could say,
okay, these two are going to carry
this passing attack.
It's going to be a group.
Why not, though?
I guess that's my question. Is Mike Williams
really not good enough
to be that second guy
to give you 900 yards and six touchdowns?
Go back to what Williams was two years ago.
Yeah, he's had flashes for sure.
I don't know. I think
taking him over Emmanuel Sanders is easy. He could score 10 touchdowns again
and still have only 600 yards receiving.
That's the type of receiver he is.
Okay, we're going to take a break here.
Whatever he did, 800 yards.
Yeah, we're going to take a break.
When we come back, the Eagles and the Dolphins.
We'll talk about those two situations, the Eagles and the Dolphins,
after this break.
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Jalen Hurts, he was exciting.
Wasn't a great passer in his brief stint as a starter
in his 3.75 NFL starts.
I thought if he had finished week 17
he would have thrown the ball really well. Absolutely.
It would have changed the course
of history for sure.
Okay, so did we see
enough from Jalen Rager to be
optimistic or are we just
using pedigree,
Dave, to convince ourselves
to draft Jalen Rager? For me, it's mostly pedigree, Dave, to convince ourselves to draft Jalen Rager?
For me, it's mostly pedigree.
And I was very excited about Rager when he came out of TCU.
There is a little bit of excitement when looking back at Jalen Hurts
and how often he threw deep.
And he's kind of like Deshaun Watson in that regard.
When he gets out of the pocket, he's going to do one of two things.
He's either going to run or he's going to chuck it deep.
And I don't think he's as accurate as Deshaun Watson. He's not as polished of a quarterback as Deshaun Watson,
but if he's giving his downfield receivers a chance to make plays when things are breaking
down, that sure doesn't hurt the profile of a receiver that you would look at drafting with
a late pick. And that's what Rager is, is somebody that you're just hoping is that guy in Philadelphia that connects with Hurts in Philadelphia that takes his game to the next level with Nick Sirianni coaching him.
It's worth taking a chance on him probably before Mike Williams, especially in non-PPR.
Oh, yeah.
In that round.
I don't really feel great about saying round eight, so let's just say round nine and beyond.
I'm not ready to take Rager before then, just because of what the quarterback situation is.
And they're, like you said, they're going to add somebody they're, they're, they're not done. They
have to, if this is what they're doing, then they're not doing any justice to what Jalen
hurts hopefully can become, you know, so trading back to 12, you know, we'll see if they're still
able to get one of the guys that they love, you know, you know, depending on what mock draft you
look like, you could see one of the top trio of receivers there,
but it doesn't have to be just a first round guy.
As we've talked about Terry McLaurin,
T Higgins,
you know,
just two in the last two drafts that have been past day one,
past round one picks past day one picks,
uh,
have the chance to be obviously stars and corn proven it over two seasons
and,
and Higgins shows you what the upside could be.
So it doesn't have to be just a,
a first round pick,
but you got to give this kid some help.
I do think though that the biggest thing that's going to help Jalen Hurts as a
passer is he's not running for his life because of his offensive line.
He's going to have much better protection this time around.
Last year was a disaster for Wentz and it was a disaster for Hurts.
And so again,
we like that because then he made plays outside the pocket,
ran and did all those things that was,
was very successful
for the people who picked him up.
But I do think that any quarterback needs time to throw,
and he's going to get much better time to throw
no matter who he's throwing to at this point.
Is this a spot, and this might make you puke, James,
so apologies in advance.
Yeah, we're on video, Dave.
Is this a spot where Kyle Pitts could go?
Oh, absolutely.
Thinking about the versatility that Frank Reich
and all the West Coasters really love doing with their tight end. But this, I think thinking about the versatility that Frank Reich and all the West
coasters really love doing with their tight end.
But this I think is then he's more of a receiver than he is a tight.
Oh,
he's going to be more of a receiver than a tight end.
I mean,
I think they're drafting him to your,
you know,
you're,
you're,
you're looking at your roster and you're saying,
we don't have two great tight ends.
We have a great tight end and a great receiver.
And what I look at when I see the Eagles roster right now is they've got a
lot of speed. They don've got a lot of speed
they don't have a lot of size goddard is their size if they add somebody like pitts i don't know
fulgham is yes he's got size i don't know if he's going to play a lot um but especially if they
draft right now yeah that's what they have um but pitts would give them size speed all kinds of
matchup issues that would really help out jalen hurtsts. If I were an Eagles fan and I see them move to 12 in the draft,
that's what I'm hoping they actually do.
Yeah.
They have to have a pretty good feel for the board because at six,
they controlled their destiny in terms of pass catcher.
You know, they had the opportunity to see whichever guy falls to them,
whichever the guy, the dolphins would not have taken a three.
If they stayed there, you know,
you don't know what the Falcons now we're going to do. Assuming they go offensive line at this point, but you know, know, you don't know what the Falcons now are going to do,
assuming they go offensive line at this point.
But, you know, again, you don't know what's going to happen with their pick.
So it's very interesting to see what's going to happen at 12.
You know, they lost the opportunity to control their own destiny,
but they added some draft capital.
So you can't fault them for trying to play the board.
And if they play it right, you know,
you could still see Devontae Smith or Chase or Waddle or Pitts.
If they pass on one of those four guys, I think they're making a mistake.
I think it's a very good chance that they will get one of the three wide receivers or
the tight end.
If you do the math, if you expect five quarterbacks to be drafted, what you just heard, was it
Kyle Shanahan or John Lynch, I think, said they were going to get left at the altar if
they had stayed at 12 or whether they were at 13.
They were 12, right?
The Niners, right?
Yeah, they were 12.
I don't know exactly what he meant by that,
but he was obviously talking about quarterbacks.
But if you have five quarterbacks, two offensive tackles,
that's seven picks.
Now you've got three wide receivers and one tight end.
That's 11 picks.
The Eagles picked 12th.
I think the Giants are probably...
You know the Giants are taking Parsons at this point, right?
I think they're probably going with a pass rusher.
Parsons, I guess, maybe.
But I think one of the Miami defensive ends would make sense.
But I think they're going defense since they signed Kenny Galladay.
But, you know, you never know.
They could go best player available.
I think there's a great chance...
They might go running back at him.
Yeah, there's a great chance that the Eagles can get either Pitts
or one of the top three wide receivers.
They basically just need one.
They need all five quarterbacks to go, two left tackles,
which I think will happen, and then one defensive player.
All right.
Anyway, Travis Fulgham.
What?
Look at that stretch.
His first five games, 435 yards and four touchdowns.
That's almost a 1,400-yard pace.
His last eight games, 104 yards combined.
Did not have 30 yards in any of those games.
What?
That was one of the strange— That's going to be one of the strangest fantasy stretches in recent history.
The minute the old guys got healthy, he was a disaster.
Well, look, the old guys aren't, you know, Zach Ertz, still there, but may not be there.
Jeffrey's gone. Do you see any reason to put him on your scout team, Travis Fulgham?
I think he's behind the Mike Williams
group, you know, if you're
just taking a flyer. But I think
if, and Ben Kitch, I mean, if I remember the draft
correctly, I think Ben Trager drafted him
in the mock draft.
Yeah, it took him real late because who knows
if he's the only guy.
Well, he won't be the only guy. Well, Rager's there.
But then again, Rager's not like
Rager was so good. No, and Rager's not going to be the only one. Rager's there. But then again, Rager's not like Rager was so good.
No, and Rager's not going to be, you know, Rager's not going to be a guy that's, you know, seven plus targets on a consistent basis. Not that Fulgham is either. But, you know, I think when you're looking at it from a guy who makes sense for a quarterback like Hurts, big target, you know, hopefully good catch radius and can make some, some plays. So, you know, he's, he's going to be on the team to whatever capacity he's, he's playing,
you know, whether he's the fourth guy or the second guy, you know, he's,
he's got to have a role unless they're just completely revamping their entire
receiving core. But the fact that they did nothing, free agency speaks to,
they're probably going to add, you know, maybe one or two,
but they're going to be young and inexperienced.
So Fulham's a guy that you take, you know,
depending on how deep your draft is with, with a late round flyer.
It wouldn't surprise me if we have a game or two where you're saying I have to have him, you know, off the waiver wire.
But he's not going to be consistent.
I mean, you know, that showed you that, and the quarterback showed you that.
All right, last question on the Eagles here.
Let's say they draft Waddell at 12th overall, and they get rid of Zacherts.
And their receivers look like Rager, Waddle, Dallas Goddard.
I believe Zacherts led the team in receiving three straight seasons.
So with that said, who would lead the team in receiving?
Would it be Goddard?
Would it be Rager?
Would it be Waddle?
Who would you think would lead the team in receiving?
Goddard.
Goddard, then Waddle, then Rager.
Okay. Let's move on to the Miami Dolphins. Of these four teams, this one feels the, I don you know, I mean, they did exactly what they needed to do to guarantee them still control of, of getting
one of the top four guys that they want, you know, they're not leaving it up to chance like the Eagles
did. So, you know, I mean, we talked about this Adam after the trade, you know, they,
they gave, they got more capital clearly by trading down to 12, they gave up a first round
pick, but you know,
to still gain extra first round pick and move down three spots,
they did fairly well for themselves for this, this, you know,
particular two trades that they made. So unless they go completely off of what
seems to be the case by not taking one of the receivers or pits,
they're adding something to help to, they're adding something to help Tua. They're adding
something to detract from the guys who are already there. So you have to be a little nervous in
Dynasty, as we talked about, as a Will Fuller, Devontae Parker, Mike Gusecki fantasy manager,
because there's company coming, company coming. But from the standpoint of the quarterback,
this is the model you look for. This is what the Bills did.
This is what the Cardinals did.
They added to their young quarterback and said,
here are the tools.
Now you have to take advantage of the tools.
And you got to be excited about that if you're in the Tua Tunga-Vailoa camp.
Does it make you interested in drafting him as a blue chip backup fantasy
quarterback in a one quarterback league if they've got Jamar chase on top of will Fuller,
Devante Parker and Mike Kisecki.
And I think the answer to that is hell.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I think you,
you have to put them up toward the list of guys that you're,
you know,
you're not gonna draft them to be your number one quarterback in a super
flex.
Sure.
Two quarterback league,
of course,
but you want to just kind of poach them from the rest of your league,
stash them on the bench,
see how the first few weeks of the season goes. And it's not just that, it's also what they do
at 18. I mean, you know, do they add another offensive lineman? Do they add a running back?
You know what I mean? I think a lot of people would be excited about that. If, if Najee Harris
or Travis Etienne are there and they pick up one of those two guys, this is, this is a team that's
poised to have a bunch of better offensive showing than they did a year ago. And it's obviously dependent on Tua taking that step forward,
but they've been building the offensive line.
You see what they've done the last two off seasons,
and now it's time to add another piece to it,
and I think they're going to do that.
They did that with Will Fuller too.
Yeah, I forgot to mention where the Eagles guys got drafted.
Fulgham went really late.
Jalen Rager went in the ninth round,
like the last pick of the ninth round.
Dallas Goddard went in round six.
One pick after Dallas Goddard,
right in the middle of round six,
was Will Fuller.
And let me see where Devontae Parker went.
This is a 12-team league, by the way.
Parker went late in round nine.
He went just before Jerry Judy and Jarvis Landry.
Will Fuller went to Ben just before Debo Samuel.
And then there was not a wide receiver taken until Tyler Boyd in round seven.
All right, so I keep talking about Myler Boyd.
Tyler Boyd or Will Fuller, who would you guys rather have?
And let's do that first without the Dolphins adding a wide receiver
in either of the first two rounds, let's say.
And then let's say they do bring in a wide receiver.
Fuller or Boyd?
As much as I love Will Fuller last year, this is easy for me to go Tyler Boyd.
I'll take Fuller, but it's close.
Okay.
What do you think Devante Parker...
What do you think about him?
What do you think his role will be?
Again, he was a late round eight pick
just ahead of Jerry, Judy, and Jarvis Landry,
and actually just ahead of Mike Kosicki,
who went three picks after Devante Parker.
I think he's a great number three receiver to take on your fantasy team
because he's probably going to exceed those expectations.
But, you know, again, that's saying that now,
not knowing what they're going to add.
But, you know, you add a high-profile rookie to this,
and all these guys get pushed down.
You know, it's hard to see enough targets from a quarterback
that still has to show you something.
So, you know, again, I'll go back to what I just said.
This is great for Tua, but he has to now ascend to such a certain height to make all these
guys great fantasy receivers that I don't know if that's realistic in year two for him,
knowing that Parker needs a quarterback that's going to allow him to make plays.
Fuller is a guy that's going to make Tua better because he gets open, his separation and what he does. And that's what Tua excelled at in college.
Whoever they draft is probably going to be in that same type of category,
clearly with a better pedigree, whether it's Devontae Smith or Jamar Chase or Waddle.
So Parker is going to be the kind of odd man out, but at the same time,
he can still have enough production and be enough of a factor that three receiver leagues,
you're starting him as that third receiver, probably half the season and maybe more so.
I'd be nervous to put him in as my number three receiver if Jamar Chase or one of the top rookie
receivers join him in Miami, because it's just too many mouths to feed. Like you said,
James, from a quarterback who hasn't necessarily proved it at the pro level,
I could see him falling well into the double digit rounds and being drafted
well behind rookie wide receiver X and will Fuller.
Sure.
Yeah.
Yeah.
He does.
He,
he needs the dolphins to go offensive line or defense in the entire first
round of the draft.
Every single one of their picks.
He still though,
could be for 2021
alone, the
target leader for the Dolphins. Would not shock me
by any stretch. Now, that doesn't mean he's going
to be the best receiver on the Dolphins.
But, again,
he's probably right now going to get more targets than
Will Fuller because of the routes that he runs.
And he still has the rapport
with Tua. And whoever the rookie
is, he's going to get more targets than that guy.
More than likely.
I got to say, I think Will Fuller
is looked at as a downfield threat,
and he's a lot more than that.
I watched a bunch of his targets.
They used him on wide receiver screens a lot.
He goes over the middle.
He, of course, can get downfield.
He can do a lot.
I mean, his yards per catch is really high.
You've got to think of Will Fuller pre-2020, though.
Why?
Because he stepped into a role with a quarterback
that he had a relationship with
and was needed to play in that role.
Well, I think he's...
But he proved that he could do it.
Absolutely.
He's not just a deep threat.
He's not just a deep threat.
No, no, no.
But he's going to do more of what he did last year.
But still, he's not walking into
being the number one guy.
Last year,
he was the number one guy.
He's not walking...
Well, wait, excuse me.
Brandon Cooks
and Devante Parker,
if you want to put their
careers side by side,
I think it's pretty obvious
who wins that.
But what I'm saying is
you're talking about a guy
that's been established
with a franchise.
Yeah, I guess so.
And Will Fuller's only on a one-year deal.
So it's not like they committed to him long-term.
It was a weird signing, for sure.
I'm curious why the Dolphins did that.
It was a great signing.
Well, why would the Dolphins do that if they're going to go and pick another receiver in the draft?
Because you need the future.
It's a one-year deal.
Devontae Parker is not the long-term answer as the number one guy.
Fuller's not the long-term answer as the number one guy.
Fuller's not the long-term answer.
So those guys are great receivers
for the Dolphins.
You also have
arguably one of the best prospects
in the last several years
in Chase.
And then two guys
that Tua's played with
who are great prospects.
You know, so
you have to take a chance
on one of those guys
with the draft capital at you.
And the thought is
if that offensive line
can protect Tua and all three guys or those guys are on the cap, I'll let you know. And the thought is, if that offensive line can protect Tua
and all three guys, all those guys are on the field,
then Tua should have time to make clean throws
and be on target better than he was last year.
He was 30th, I think, and on target percentage was gross.
He's much better for Tua than Parker is.
Parker needs a guy that's going to allow him to make plays.
Fuller just needs to have a quarterback
that's going to put the ball in space
because he gets separation.
Parker gets no separation. Tua did a lot of that in college. Yeah. I'm not sure that we know exactly what kind of quarterback Tua is going to be. That is why I find this team
difficult. I almost want to throw away the first year for Tua. He had really no offseason and got
pulled in a couple of games. And the production with Devontae Parker was horrible.
Devontae Parker had three games all season with more than 70 yards.
And in all three of those games, he had 12 or more targets.
And those were his only games with double-digit targets.
So basically, when he did not have double-digit targets,
he did not get to 70 yards.
It was a bad year for him in that regard.
But he also played half a game against
New England in Week 1 and put up 47
yards on Stephon Gilmore. I don't know if they were all on
Gilmore. He has shown at times
that he is really, really good. Devontae
Parker is tricky. He was awesome
down the stretch in 2019.
Remember Week 17 of
2019? Stephon Gilmore was amazing
that year, and he had like 130 yards
or something. He had the best game of any wide receiver
against the Patriots all year.
So you wonder if that player is still there.
He played a little bit banged up last year,
did not connect well with Tua,
had a lot of almost touchdowns.
I remember that.
But then Will Fuller, I think Will Fuller's terrific.
I think he showed it last year.
I talked about the yards per target stat.
He's amazing in that regard over the last three seasons.
So there's a lot of talent, and there's only going to be more talent.
And then there's Gasicki, who went three picks after Devontae Parker.
And who would you guys take first?
Gasicki with the position scarcity or Parker?
Gasicki.
Gasicki.
Jamie, Gasusecki?
Parker?
Sorry, I have a three-year-old baby.
Yeah, I hear him.
Who does he want?
As it stands right now, I'd rather have Gusecki.
Okay.
All right.
We got a lot of emails to read.
We also have a fantasy baseball season that's about to start.
And fantasy baseball today in 5 is your best bet
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Check out Fantasy Baseball Today in 5
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Yeah, it is the best way
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right all right perfect let's read some emails. This is from Ted.
Dear Tony, Antonio, and Rob.
Those are tight ends.
Patriots.
No, I'm sorry, not Patriots.
Legendary tight ends.
Gonzalez, Gates, and Gronkowski.
Oh, they all have Gs.
Cool.
We have an annual Keeper League,
and one player on each team must be kept,
and that is your first-round pick.
It's a half PPR league.
Three receivers.
Why?
One last year, so now I have to decide who do I keep.
Barkley, Adams, Jefferson, or Kelsey?
He's actually leaning Kelsey, but who would you guys keep?
Barkley, Adams, Jefferson, Kelsey.
Barkley.
It's Saquon.
It's who I would take first from this group in a regular draft.
Okay. Brandon. Where's Brandon
from? Brandon's
from Laramie, Wyoming.
12-team PPR Super
Flex League. Why isn't Brandon from Brandon?
It's a great question, Dave.
Sorry. He's from Wyoming man
people live in Wyoming too
don't hate on him
has anybody ever been to Wyoming?
no
nope
my parents have
they enjoyed it very much
okay Brandon from Wyoming
says 12 team PPR super flex league
I can only keep
when did they go to Wyoming?
two or three years ago
for a wedding
why? were you there? I was wondering maybe you were conceived in Wyoming Where did they go to Wyoming? Two or three years ago for a wedding.
Why?
Were you there?
I was wondering.
Maybe you were conceived in Wyoming.
What?
What the hell?
Why do I have to think about that right now?
Oh, my goodness.
All right.
Went to one of those getaway romantic ranches.
Yeah.
They eloped to Jackson Hole, Wyoming and got married.
Antonio Gibson, DeAndre Swift, Cam Akers, or Aaron Jones.
Who are you keeping?
Antonio Gibson, DeAndre Swift, Cam Akers, or Aaron Jones?
Jones.
I think I'm keeping Jones as well.
Close to Wyoming.
Keep up with the Jones.
That's enough here.
What's up?
This is from Xavier from Harrisburg.
What's up, Mike, Kyle?
No, I'm from Harrisburg.
I don't care.
I don't believe you.
I don't believe anything you say.
Mike, Kyle, and Kenny.
You're a very handsome man.
What's up, Mike, Kyle, and Kenny? Who are they?
Kyle and Kenny.
I know who Mike and Kyle are.
Those are Shanahan's.
Oh, man.
I don't know.
Okay.
Kenny, Shanahan.
Kenny Albert.
It's Kenny Albert hanging out with the Shanahan son and father duo.
All right.
10-team PPR salary cap league.
Oh, this is cool.
We always set the salary to the actual cap.
So this year it's $182.5.
That's cool.
I have a $32 Michael Thomas.
I have been offered the following for him.
$2 T. Higgins.
$2 Hawkinson, $2 Rager.
Rookie picks 2.1 and 2.7.
Would you give up a $32 Michael Thomas for a $2 Higgins, a $2 Hawkinson, a $2 Rager,
and picks 2.1 and 2.7 in the rookie draft?
Yes.
100% yes.
Okay.
This is from Alec waiting at the vaccination clinic.
All right.
Good job, Alec.
I was wondering how you balance overall ability against value
when selecting your keepers.
Where do you draw the line between keeping your number one pick
versus picking players that aren't quite that top tier
but have great value?
I don't want to end up with three keepers at great value,
but there are no more number ones to select with my top pick.
I don't have any specifics here, guys.
Jamie, this almost sounds like our fantasy baseball team.
I was thinking the same thing.
We picked 10th in an AL only league,
and we have Garrett Cole as a first-round keeper,
so it was a no-brainer to keep him at 10.
Where you pick, obviously he's going
to factor into this as well but you know then you got to look at what the other selections are like
we could have kept uh bogarts with the second round pick but that didn't necessarily make a
lot of sense for us knowing that we can keep some other guys like fran moreas for a ninth round pick
or at the time eloy j Jimenez for a fifth round pick.
So, you know, not to get on a fancy baseball tangent,
but you know,
obviously it depends on where you're who you're talking about versus the
round value that you have to keep them.
It also comes down to how long you can keep them at that value.
Much easier to keep.
One year when it's keeper.
Right, right.
When it's a one year thing and you've got a great player for a first round pick, it's much easier to keep that when it's keeper right right when it's a one-year thing um and you've
got a great player for a first round pick it's much easier to keep that guy and throw back the
james robinson's of the world um if you so choose now maybe robinson's a bad example because if
you're keeping him for like a 15th round pick or something like that and he's going as a first
round pick you're probably going to keep him so i'm taking that back i think james robinson would
be obvious to to keep well adam go go back taking that back. I think James Robinson would be obvious to keep.
Well, Adam, go back to the email you asked for in round one.
About the place you were conceived in Wyoming.
With those running backs.
And let's assign some values to them and play this out that way.
So the Aaron Jones, Cam Akers, those other guys.
Antonio Gibson, Swift, Akers, and Aaron Jones.
So three second-year running backs,
and Aaron Jones is staying with the Packers. So let's say Jones
is a first round pick.
Akers is an eighth round pick.
Swift is a ninth round pick
and Gibson is a 12th round pick.
And you can only keep
one of those guys.
Obviously, you're looking at it
from Jones is tried and true.
He's been a top five running back
each of the past two seasons,
but you have to give up
the most to keep him
versus Gibson,
who could be a top 10 guy
and has the best value to it.
They're all sort of in a similar range, at least the way I have it ranked.
Jones is first, but Akers is four or five picks later.
You said Akers in the ninth and Swift in the eighth?
Right.
I'm just trying to think about where they may have been drafted last year.
Well, I think that's too late.
However, in this particular case of Brandon from where I was conceived,
this is a super flex league, So maybe they actually were drafted there,
but I think in a redraft league,
it was more like Swift and acres in round like six and Gibson and maybe
seven by the end of the draft season.
But sure.
Okay.
Okay.
So, so why don't we do that?
And I can look up ADP if you want, but you know,
Jones in round one and then Swift and acres around six and Gibson around
seven.
In that case,
what would you do?
Gibson.
Is it for one year?
Yes.
I'd go.
And again,
now you factor in where,
where are you drafting?
So are you drafting?
Why not go acres?
I feel like you'd like acres.
I think I would go acres if it's a super flex and I think I'd go Jones if it's not.
Pay attention to the round. Yeah, so one round
difference, yeah, I'd take Akers.
Alright, let's read a few more here. This is
from Steve. What you think?
I received Deshaun Watson.
I give up Sam Darnold
and in the rookie draft
picks 1.4 and
1.7. It's a 12
team super flex league.
This is a big deal here.
Give up Darnold and the fourth and seventh picks
of the first round in a rookie draft
and get Watson in a 12-team super flex league.
So obviously we haven't really spent a lot of time
talking about this Watson situation
and what it means from a dynasty league perspective.
So not to make light of anything that's happening, I haven't really spent a lot of time talking about this Watson situation and when it means from a dynasty league perspective.
So not to make light of anything that's happening with what's going on and the accusations, we just don't know how it's all going to play out.
Is he going to be suspended?
You know,
clearly it seems as if he's not going to be traded at this point because how
can you trade for somebody that could be dealing with his legal matters.
But from a fantasy perspective,
this is the time to be buying Deshaun Watson
because if nothing happens to him and he is able to play,
you're getting him clearly at a much reduced cost.
Is this that reduced cost?
I mean, you know, so it's Darnold, which, you know,
doesn't have much attraction right now,
but if he's traded to, let's say, the Broncos or the Patriots, you know,
or a team that he could actually compete for a starting job,
that makes it better for him.
But he's those 1.4 and 1.7?
Yep.
Yeah.
So that's a quarterback.
Maybe two.
Right.
Yeah.
Well, so, okay.
Do you think this is fair value?
I do. Right. Yeah. Well, so, okay. Do you think this is fair value? I think it's fair value if you ignore off-field issues.
Well, if you ignore the off-field stuff,
you're not getting Deshaun Watson for this price
because nobody's trading him.
You don't think so?
Oh, I don't know about that.
I mean, that's a hell of a haul.
With two first-round picks and Sam Darnold,
that's a pretty good haul.
Yeah, but I mean, if he's playing and he's
Deshaun Watson, he's top three
quarterback in a super flex league. That's hard to give up for
uncertainty.
He's not necessarily a top
three quarterback. He's a top six
quarterback. No, in a dynasty
super flex, he's a top three quarterback. He could be
top three, but he could, you
know, he's right. Okay, but he's
in that top tier. He's Mahomes and then
he's in that top tier with like everyone else.
I think it's much easier to say no to
this trade given what's happening off
the field. I don't know if this
trade will be available to you.
Right. I know.
Are you saying say no? I think you
still have to say no just because of the uncertainty
with Watson's future. Okay.
Well, let me ask you. God, I hate talking about this, but me too.
I, unless, all right, look, I can't really see a scenario where to shot where the worst
case scenario is worse than a year suspension.
I don't think Deshaun Watson has played his last football game.
I'm basing this on Antonio Brown
I mean if he goes to prison
does anybody think that?
I'm not asking you, just you and the general public
do you think he's going to prison?
these are civil suits
if you're really making this decision
I don't know what happened
but right now, I don't think he's played his last football game
so that's all I'm saying
it's just unfortunate.
But anyway.
I put it this way.
If you have a dynasty team that is in a position to win now,
it's not a bad move to acquire him if you're giving up rookie picks.
If you're in a rebuild mode, it's probably not the right move to make.
Yeah.
I don't know.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that if you have to make a decision,
like if you're making decisions right now,
you have to,
you know,
I guess for me,
it would be like the worst case scenario for him would be like a one year
suspension,
but I just don't know what's going to happen.
And we don't,
we don't know.
And again,
you just have to guess you have to make a blind guess.
Yeah.
We don't,
we know that our audience as fantasy players,
they want to know what to do with them because,
right.
I mean,
you have to make some of these decisions,
which sucks.
Yeah. And I didn't mean to say, I didn't mean to say anything by that i just you know obviously it's like i fumble around with anything wrong yeah with these situations all
the time we're obviously you know we're weeks into this now and we haven't really talked about it and
and understandably so because we don't have all the information that we would need that to give
to our audience but you know again when we're getting questions about it,
we have to talk our way through it.
Yeah.
Hopefully we're trying to be as sensitive as possible.
And I'll just say, and I have no problem saying this,
if the allegations are true,
then I wouldn't want them on my fantasy team
and I wouldn't want them to play football again
because if the allegations are true,
it's completely unacceptable and is unacceptable in society.
All right, unacceptable in society.
All right, Dave in Flint.
What would you do in my situation?
We started an eight-team half PPR dynasty league last season.
This will be our first rookie-only draft.
I have picks.
I have the second pick of rounds one, two, three, and five.
I need a quarterback.
I'm hoping to draft Trevor Lawrence with my first pick.
I was wondering if you had any thoughts or tips for when you're scouting the upcoming rookies and when managing your dynasty rosters.
Currently, I have Tannehill and Matt Ryan.
So it's an eight-team, half-PPR dynasty league, and he has the second pick.
Would you go with Lawrence there?
It sounds like he needs a quarterback.
Sounds like it's a small enough league where he can find good talent in
round two and maybe even into round three in the rookie draft.
Yeah.
Take Trevor Lawrence.
Unless you,
unless you somehow learn that you can move back in the draft and still get
him.
I think you play it safe and you lock up that quarterback or more.
It doesn't say super flex.
Just says,
so it's a one quarterback,
eight round draft.
There is a very realistic scenario that he's there at 10 you know if you're picking second in this in the second round
so obviously we don't know what else he needs he has serviceable quarterbacks for year one
or for for 2021 to get by okay but if he needs running backs and receivers as well,
you don't want to pass on one of those guys
knowing that while you may miss Lawrence,
would you rather have running back one
or running back two or receiver one, receiver two
and quarterback three or quarterback two
as opposed to quarterback one and running back seven or eight?
This is not a super flex.
Adam doesn't say it is.
Okay.
Then I'm changing my one quarterback league and Lawrence is there.
Right.
But if it's a one quarterback league,
I might gamble and see if he's there at 10.
He's not the only quarterback in this draft either.
You know,
like you could do the math here too.
You know that there's going to be three running backs at minimum that are going to go in the first six or seven picks of every
rookie only draft there's going to be three wide receivers minimum that go in the first six or
seven picks plus Kyle Pitts will be up there well I mean just look at the most recent drafts that
we've had Baker Mayfield was one he much rather have Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen last year
Joe Burrow looks great you much rather have Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Last year, Joe Burrow looks great.
You'd much rather have Justin Herbert, who was third.
All right, we're going to finish up on that.
Oh, I didn't mention that Steve called me out for not seeing Pulp Fiction.
He said it makes him consider switching to a different podcast.
All right, I will try to watch it, I swear.
Just on that note.
Is this about where I was conceived or birthed? Because if it is, then no, you cannot ask a question.
No, no, no.
Did you actually see the basketball game in question behind you?
Yeah, I saw.
Are you kidding me?
Yes, I saw this game.
And I saw not that Super Bowl.
I saw this one, this one, and this one.
So, yes, I saw all that.
And I've seen all of this as well.
It's my Simpsons poster.
I just want to make sure, you know,
you put things on your wall that you haven't seen.
Yes, these are legit.
All right, thanks everybody for listening.
For Dave and Jamie and Ben, I'm Adam.
We'll talk to you on Thursday
with some 17 game projections
and a lot of emails and Apple podcast questions.
See ya.