Fantasy Football Today - Year Two WRs ... How Good Are They? (05/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 20, 2020

D.J. Chark, Michael Gallup, Courtland Sutton and D.J. Moore all took giant leaps in their second NFL seasons, so what does that mean for the rising sophomore WRs like Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown and others? Get ready for an extended philosophical discussion about how to identify Year 2 breakouts. First, some news (5:00)! Remember Chris Herndon? Keep him on your radar ... We'll give you a brief history of WRs who have reached 900 receiving yards as rookies since 2000 and what it has meant the following year, plus how you can apply that for 2020. We've got key stats and figures to know (9:45) plus important questions about the sophomore WRs (36:50). Who has the most upside? Who will have the best draft value? ... Why do some WRs take a step forward in Year 2 while others take a step back? We've identified some common issues, so let's figure out which 2020 sophomores could struggle. Will A.J. Brown's QB play get significantly worse? Will Deebo Samuel be impacted by Brandon Aiyuk? ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Today on the show, why wait for a year three breakout

when everybody's breaking out in year two? That's what's cool these days. We'll talk about DK Metcalf, Marquise Brown, AJ. Oh, yeah, we're going to talk about AJ Brown. Hey, Ben, we're going to talk about AJ Brown. It's the AJ Brown Show. Hey. You didn't seem abused by that.

I'm sorry. I'm on the defensive because Ben is going to crush me at Tecmo Super Bowl. Oh, Ben, now you're setting expectations, aren't you? When we first brought this up, you immediately said you'd beat me. And then when I said I ran for 1,000 yards with Bo Jackson in one game, you said, everybody's done that. Well, we have to play on our computers without a controller, and I can't adjust to that.

So, you know know you have an advantage uh jamie and dave are also here guys i don't talk badly about michael thomas that is my advice to you just i'm i'm reading the exchange right now with davante parker i almost feel like we should uh do like a table reading and go over like you can be Michael Thomas and I'll be Devante Parker. I don't, it's, he really overreacted. I don't want to be Michael Thomas. Like I'm on team Devante Parker here. Michael Thomas. I'll be Michael Thomas. And here we go. In other words, you weak, they don't even put your name in the same sentence as me. Remember that. I don't have the script, but something like, give me 300 targets a game, Michael Thomas.

That was one of the things Parker said. Yeah. He would be the number one receiver if he had 300 targets per game. Well, so it all started with Devontae Parker answering a poll question. What is it? What's harder? What's harder, to break up a pass while guarding Michael Thomas or to make a catch while guarded by Stephon Gilmore?

Jamie, what would you have voted for? I would have voted for catching a pass on Stephon Gilmore. Me too. Of course. Michael Thomas is still listening. I abstain from voting. Oh, Michael Thomas was an unjust murder, but it was a murder. Yeah, he killed Devante Parker.

Everybody would have voted for that. And Michael Thomas was like, what? You better not be voting for Stephon Gilmore. So he went after Devante Parker. Everything he made was valid about Devante Parker, though, unfortunately. Yeah, it's true. He knows his stuff. Adam, what does GTFOH mean?

Get the friend on here. I think he's asking for his other friends to come and comment on the Instagram post. Get the friend on here! You know when people say that? Well, your two wide receivers I think are really interesting because we had three wide receivers last year get 900 or more yards as rookies. A.J. Brown had 1,051. Terry McLaurin

had 919. And D.K. Metcalf had 900 on the nose. Deebo Samuel had 802. It was a really strong year for rookie wide receivers. And 900 yards for a rookie wide receiver usually is a sign of good things to come.

Heath pulled a list of 18 wide receivers who had 900 or more receiving yards as rookies since 2000, and not including the three from last year. And he gave me the guys who did better in fantasy as sophomores and the guys who did worse. And it was only 10 to 8 in terms of players who did better in fantasy as sophomores and the guys who did worse. And it was only 10 to eight in terms of players who did better, tended better, eight did worse, but it's a little deceiving because like two of the guys who did worse as sophomores were Michael Thomas and Mike Evans.

And they both were top 12 or Evans was 13th. They both are really good. You know, um, some of the guys had down second years, but really bounced back, had great careers like Anquan Boldin and Keenan Allen. And a few of them were flukes.

But we'll try to sort through it and find out who's who. But you are talking about an opportunity to get a guy like Juju Smith-Schuster, whose numbers look almost exactly like Terry McLaurin's. Except Juju did it in 14 games and McLaurin – no, they both were in 14 games. Pardon me. So like nearly identical rookie season numbers. And then Juju Smith-Schuster became a top 10 wide receiver as a sophomore with 1,400 yards

and 111 catches. You know, you got an opportunity to get Sammy Watkins, who might be DK Metcalf, big, you know, per-catch guy, maybe not going to catch a ton of passes, but he had 982 yards

and six touchdowns as a rookie. He had 1,047 and nine as a second-year guy and was 15th in non-PPR, 20th in PPR. So anyway, we'll get into that. Just a few quick news items here. And these are courtesy of Ben Gretsch because I didn't really have anything. So Ben sent me an email and he said, Brady threw to some guys. The Jets are talking up Chris Herndon and Michael Thomas

torched Devante Parker on Instagram. I think we covered that. But Ben, Brady threw to some guys. Yeah, he met up with some guys, I guess, in Northern California and threw to OJ Howard and Mike Evans. In Tampa. Oh, it was in Tampa.

I guess I saw it was like Berkeley Prep or something and I just oh it's in tampa oh yeah um i guess i i saw it was like berkeley prep or something and i just assumed it was in like berkeley but maybe it's just called that in tampa yeah tampa berkeley it's one of the better sports programs in the state of florida got it um yeah so we're seeing more of this we talked about ben roethlisberger on yesterday's show doing it. It seems like we're going to see this all offseason now, right? Well, it happens a lot. It's something that's usually done after minicamp or before minicamp. These guys get together. Matt Ryan would take guys

in South Florida. He would throw with Julio Jones and the Falcons players whenever he could. Brady tried to do this, I think, a few weeks ago. I don't know if he had teammates with him, but he got kicked out of a park in Tampa. I believe the guys that were there, Mike Evans and O.J. Howard, were the two names that jumped out. I think Cameron Brate was there, too. His center was there, also. So he took, I think, took the two backup quarterbacks too.

So I'm sure, you know, anybody that's in the Tampa area that's, you know, able to will probably go out with him whenever he can. And Jamie, you liked Chris Herndon going into last year. He couldn't stay healthy. Yeah. How do you feel about him now? I think he's one of those guys that, you know, you put at the end of your bench if you want to take a shot at a second tight end.

You know, he's, he maybe doesn't have the at the end of your bench if you want to take a shot at a second tight end. He maybe doesn't have the same upside as, I don't want to say Noah Phan or TJ Hawkinson, but I think he's in the conversation with Jay Sternberger and Ian Thomas and some of these guys that you're going to do as dart throws. For what it's worth, Adam Gase was really high on him when he took a job last year. It wasn't just the injury, it was the suspension to start the season, too. He had a four-game suspension. So they don't have a significant receiving core that I don't think he could step in and be a playmaker right away. And we saw Ryan Griffin put up some numbers last year, too, before he got hurt.

So, you know, there's an opportunity here for, you know, a guy that can help you, maybe more as a biweek or injury replacement. But if you do invest in a second tight end or certainly tight end premium leagues, he should be on radar. That's the point you made about his teammates is the biggest reason I like him more than like Ian Thomas or, or Johnny Smith or even Jay Sternberger who has Devonta Adams, you know, like Herndon's path to a significant target share. Isn't hard to see.

You know, he could do nothing as well, but he could lead their team in targets. And it's another situation of, you know, was it Peyton Manning? Was it Adam Gase? You know, Julius Thomas put up big numbers in Gase's offense. Again, you know, we talked about this a lot of times with Adam Gase. His one year in Chicago as the offense coordinator, I think it was three tight ends. Their numbers combined were pretty successful. It failed in Miami, but he didn't have a lot of talent

at that position there. We'll see. Like I said, Ryan Griffin was not bad last year. I was playing him in a couple of leagues, deep leagues, where I needed help at tight end. I think the middle of the field is kind of where Adam Gase likes to have his targets go. Landry in Miami, Crowder. I think Hurton of the field is kind of where Adam Gates likes to have his targets go. Landry in Miami, Crowder.

I think Herndon's got a shot. I'd be buying if I'm in the Dynasty League, put it that way. Very cheap, but I'd be buying. I got him in two this offseason as well. Totally agree. How many times have you guys drafted Herndon in redraft? I mean, I've taken him in our Dynasty startups. I think I took him in both, the drafts that he's done um but in in redrafts i don't take a lot of second tight end so it's

not something that i do but i think if you're in any any draft that you go more than 16 rounds if you're just looking for a talented player late that has a shot he's on that list he may be on the bottom of the list but i think he's on that list. Well, Chris Herndon is back. He played one game last year. Golf is back. Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, battling it out on the links this weekend. Listen to the First Cut podcast

this week. Kyle Porter and the crew are previewing the match, Champions for Charity. They're picking the best prop bets, breaking down the course, debating the goats and more. They're going to have instant reaction pods immediately uh following the event or they'll have an instant reaction pod immediately immediately following the event so that is the first cut podcast it's really a great golf podcast i think you're going to love it if you like golf and wherever you listen to fft you can listen to the first cut if you want a list of our

podcasts and how to subscribe to them you can go to cbssports.com slash podcast or podcasts either one. So I think we should mostly focus on six rookie wide receivers from last year, and we can get into guys like Nikhil Harry, J.J. Ortega, Whiteside, Paris Campbell later if you'd like. But A.J. Brown was the number 10 wide receiver in non-PPR, number 21 in PPR. Big difference there. 52 catches, 1,051 yards, eight touchdowns.

And he was the number three wide receiver in non-PPR and number 7 in PPR after Ryan Tannehill became the starter for 10 games. Deebo Samuel, about 30th at the position and had 159 yards rushing with 3 rushing touchdowns. If you take away the games's kill didn't play, he basically didn't do much as a receiver, but showed some promise. Terry McLaurin, 23rd in non-PPR, 29th in PPR. Like I said, his number is almost identical to Juju Smith-Schuster's rookie year. 919 yards, seven touchdowns on a team that barely threw the ball, especially after Jay Gruden was fired. DK Metcalf, slightly worse than Terry McLaurin.

McLaurin had 919 yards. Metcalf had 900. They both had seven touchdowns. They both had 58 catches. Metcalf, though, played 16 games. McLaurin had the same stats in two fewer games. Marquise Brown, weeks one and two, he went off against Miami, 147 yards, two touchdowns.

Then he had eight for 86 against the Cardinals. Then after that, he was pretty quiet until the postseason when he had a big game, 126 yards. Marquise Brown played 14 games. Darius Slayton, listen to how Gretchen, you want to say, I like to take pieces from all of the analysts. So I've been looking at Ariards and ADOT and all that. And how is Darius Slayton

going to stand out on that team? Well, he goes downfield. He led the team. He led the Giants in ADOT and air yards by a wide margin. And he had 740 yards and eight touchdowns in 14 games. Yeah.

Big staple in Jason Garrett's offenses back when he was calling plays almost a decade ago. Downfield guys. Yeah, it's good to know. Terrence Williams. Terrence Williams, Miles Austin. Yeah.

Antonio Bryant, I think, had a year. Was Laurent Robbins? Laurent wasn't while he was calling plays, but while he was there, I think. So give me your overall thoughts on this theory about your two wide receivers. What is the theory? Is it something that we should be chasing?

The theory is just that if you look at the numbers and depending on where you define breakout threshold, but the number I shared with you guys was if you use 200 fancy points as PPR points as the threshold for a breakout, which is a pretty reasonable number i think i'm not sure exactly how many receivers get to that range it's something in the you know each year it's something in the 20 to 25 receivers per year hit 200 fancy points type area um the second year is now and i think this is something that's changed over time but it's now the year that the most players hit that for the first time you know there are some that do it in their rookie year but the breakout year most commonly we're seeing is is that second season but it's also a

little different based on um draft position as well the earlier round picks are going to be uh more likely to break out earlier they're're going to get early opportunity. It makes sense. And later on picks, if a player hasn't broke out by like his third year, it's actually probably a better sign for a later round pick who's starting to work into a job compared to an earlier round pick who's already got plenty of opportunity and hasn't done it. You know, I don't think there's much reason at this point to chase the Corey Davises or the Laquan Treadwells of the world. If they haven't broken out at this point, they're probably not going to be it. Yeah. Just to quantify 200 fantasy points, Adam, Stefan Diggs last year in PPR had 202 fantasy points. He did that 63 catches, 1,130 yards, six touchdowns.

Now, question, are you looking at decimal scoring or non-decimal? That's non-decimal. Yeah, I think you probably have to look at decimal because I think everybody's going to look at decimal because I think everybody's going to have a little bit more on decimal scoring. I look at FFToday.com PPR has Odell Beckham with 202.5 fantasy points and he was

wide receiver 25. Considerably lower than Diggs. Right. Diggs was wide receiver 20 with 218 fantasy points. Like 25-ish last year had about 200 fantasy points. Jamie,, like 25-ish last year had about 200 fantasy points. Jamie, I'm very interested in this topic because I think year two wide receivers

is an opportunity to get somebody who has a bigger breakout than we could have seen coming. Like Michael Gallup and DJ Moore seems to happen a decent amount. And Cortland Sutton, I guess, would qualify there as well. And yeah, I mean,

considering how good these guys were last year, I'm wondering if we could get stars. Do you think this is a legit theory? Something that you'd be chasing? I wouldn't be chasing these guys per se. I'd be chasing more of the guys that did something less than this,

with the hope that they become what those guys in their sophomore campaign have become. What do you mean? Who are you talking about? I think when you see these guys have rookie success, I'm more concerned about a second-year fall-off more so than I am about them building off that second year because I think we see that more times than not that some of these guys that pop a little bit in their rookie year,

they tend to take a step backwards, and then the third year is when they hit. I don't know. I would disagree based on this big spreadsheet I spent like three hours working on this morning. I mean, I just, you know, I've been tracking third-year receivers for, you know, 15 years or so. 10 plus years for sure. And, you know, every guy I talk to, for the most part, like I can read you the quote that DJ Chark said to me this offseason. Like this is the year that they believe that they get it. No, but that's, he's exactly what I'm talking about.

He came out of nowhere as a second year guy. And that's the kind of player I think you want to chase if you're talking about guys in their second year, as opposed to Brown and McCorn, which I think they'll be very good, but I don't know how much better they're going to be in their second season in terms of their numbers. I think they're going to take their big

statistical leap in year three. Okay. Fair enough. I don't think they fall off this is not a they're gonna stink conversation or excuse me i think they're gonna have leveling off a little bit in year two because and it it's keenan allen that's that's that's the guy great first season and i remember um uh what the hell mike mccoy talking to mike mccoy at the owner's meeting and i said okay he was great for you last year what does he do now and he said now Mike McCoy talking to Mike McCoy at the owners meeting and I said okay he was great for you last year

what does he do now and he said now he's got to beat the double now he's got to beat the attention the target's on his back and can he do it we're hopeful but this is the next step he was as honest as any coach I've ever heard say as opposed to Pete Carroll for example

oh he's going to be great he's going to do whatever we need him to do he was basically saying, this is his time. What he did as a rookie was great, but this is his time. Chark, what he told me was he's like, I was lost as a rookie. I'll read you the quote if you want it, but he was lost as a rookie. I felt like I could play in my second

year, and now there's nothing that's going to surprise me. That was the thing that stood out. I've talked to Jerry Rice about this. I've talked to Chad Johnson about this, Steve Smith, and Quan Bolden. And they all say the same thing. Year one is like you're deer in the headlights. Year two is like, okay, now you're playing, but you kind of don't really know what you're doing.

And then when you get to year three, it's like, I know everything I need to know. Yeah. But the guys who had 900 yards as rookies, they were really good. For the most part, they were awesome. Yeah, no. And Keenan Allen is the exception, not the rule. They could still be very good.

Like, you know, this is a – did Michael Thomas break out in year one, year two, or year three? Year four. I mean, he's been – he was basically the same receiver year after year for the first three years. So that's – yeah, I was just going to chime in and say that. I was referencing a study from a hard breakout cutoff line. Jamie, I think, is talking about when you look back at a player's career,

when did they really take the step to what they truly were? For a lot of receivers, we just told you what a 200-point season sounds like. Michael Thomas is a great example. That's not really a breakout for Michael Thomas. We saw him really break out like Adam, you're saying year four, but really Michael Thomas was, was fine from year one as far as being fantasy relevant.

Right. So it's, it's a kind of a moving marker. What Jamie's describing, I think is a little bit more of a moving marker relative to the player. And I think that has a lot of value too. He has a ton of experience looking at this stuff. But it's just looking at it from different ways.

Well, Dave, your overall thoughts. And then maybe we should go through the 18 wide receivers who had 900 or more yards as rookies before last year and see what we can take away from it. Your overall thoughts on this discussion. Well, when A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin had their big years last year, it took teams a little while to adjust to it. And in the case of AJ Brown, he didn't really get going until Ben might argue with me on this, but the midpoint of the year, maybe even a little bit later than the midpoint of the year. And then he got cruising.

10 starts for Tannehill. Yeah, 37 when Tannehill took over. Okay. So the second half of the season for sure. And now, I'm not going to say that teams couldn't adjust to him while he was on the fly and while he was doing his thing, but you're telling me that the defenses in the AFC South aren't doing anything to try and prepare for a Titans passing game that didn't add anybody of major significance? They know who the number one receiver is now. So the whole beat the double thing, I think rings really large for AJ Brown and for Terry McLaurin. And it doesn't mean that I think that they're going to be bus per se. I, it just means that they've got to learn. If they either have to learn to beat the double or someone else has to step up in that offense to take the double away. We don't have to worry about that nearly as much with Metcalf.

With Debo, we don't have to worry about it either, even if Brandon Ayuk is just so-so as a rookie because George Kittle is there. Marquise Brown, I don't know if he's ever going to get double teamed because if you double team him, you're going to get crushed by the run. And Darius Slayton, same thing. A lot of receivers around him in New York. So it's really about how these guys can layer their game and make their game better while knowing that the coverage is going to be tighter. They're going to have more of the spotlight on them. And not all of them are going to have that big of a spotlight. Well, I think it's a delicate balance, though, between that who's going to struggle with more attention next year and who's just really really good and that 900 yard mark should be an indication that these guys might just be great players so let you know that's kind of why i wanted to bring this up

because let's look at the names these are the these are the 10 guys who had 900 or more yards as rookies and then improved in fantasy the following season. Juju Smith-Schuster, A.J. Green, Marcus Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Sammy Watkins, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Deshaun Jackson, Amari Cooper, and Odell Beckham. I mean, look at that list. And now DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and A.J. Brown potentially can join this list of players who improved. We'll see.

Here are the guys who did not improve, who got worse in fantasy. Eight of them. Michael Thomas, Mike Evans. I don't think anyone's going to complain about what they did their second seasons, though. They just had extremely lofty expectations to live up to because their rookie seasons were incredible.

I was wrong, by the way. I said Mike Evans finished as a top 13 wide receiver as a sophomore. That was as a rookie. He finished 26th in non-PPR, 22nd in PPR, but he had 1,051 yards. He had 1,200 yards and three touchdowns, so a weird year.

Calvin Benjamin tore his ACL, so that kind of doesn't count, but he wasn't going to get 145 targets like he did as a rookie. Anquan Boldin just took a step back. He just had a great rookie year, did not play that well as a sophomore, missed six games, and he had Larry Fitzgerald,

so he struggled. But then he bounced back with a huge year in year three. Michael Clayton was awful after year one. Keenan Allen was 783 yards and four touchdowns.

Pretty damn disappointing. Eddie Royal was kind of a fluke in year one. And Mike Williams of Tampa Bay actually led his team in receiving, I think, both as a rookie and as a second-year guy. But his team got so much worse. His offense got so much worse. That's an example of a guy who... Do I have it right that he became the number one receiver

and got a lot of attention and he didn't do as well? Yeah, he just fell off. He never did anything again after his rookie year, right? No. No, not really. No, yes, I would say your three 996 yards, nine touchdowns, pretty good. But his quarterback was Josh Johnson. Josh Freeman.

Josh Freeman, Thank you. And he played much worse in Williams' second year. But when you look at these 18 guys, three of them are Michael Clayton, Eddie Royal, and Mike Williams. I'll throw Kevin Benjamin. Four of them are Benjamin, Clayton, Royal, and Mike Williams. 14 of them are really good. So that really strikes me that's interesting and last thing I want to say

these guys AJ Brown, McLaurin, Metcalf they didn't put up huge numbers except for Brown like if you look at all these guys that I just mentioned McLaurin and Metcalf would be toward the bottom

in terms of yards but also these guys didn't get a lot of targets. DK Metcalf led all rookie wide receivers with 100. Almost every wide receiver, 16 of the 18 that I mentioned, had 105 or more. 15 of the 18 that I mentioned had 115 or more. So that was strange. I don't know what that was all about.

But with all that data, and this list of names, and 14 of these 18 wide receivers being pretty damn good players, what does that mean to you? Does that not mean anything to you when we look at Brown, McLaurin, and Metcalf? But I mean, you're saying 14 are really good players doesn't mean that they had

great sophomore seasons, though, because I mean, Bolden and Allen could be still great third year guys most of them did like Bolden's third years is best year ever yes so 10 of them 11 of them 11 of them 11 of the 18 had great

sophomore years and one that did not was Mike Evans who had 1200 yards but only three touchdowns and I'm not saying Jamie that they can't get better in their third year. I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm just saying they could have step backs in their second year and still be great. Like you're saying, they're great players. You're throwing

out Eddie Royal and the junk that became terrible players. The junk, yeah. Most of them became really good players. Go ahead, Ben. Sorry. I just think it's interesting that there have been 18 we're talking about since 2000. So we're talking about this 900 receiving yard cutoff is pretty high. We're talking about basically one per year since 2000.

There were three last year. And we know it was a really good class. So maybe those three are a little bit different. And then these other names that are still really interesting names. I mean, I'm still really intrigued by what Jamie said, and I think he's absolutely right earlier about guys who do really well in year one tend to maybe not take another off what he did in year two and be even better in year three i think there's still a lot to the year three thing and i don't think what jamie was saying is in any way um in contrast or disagreeing with what i was saying earlier where we're using a hard cutoff because you know we're talking about when did these guys become who they're really going to be right and yeah last year we had three guys hit 900 yards that's that's the cutoff you're talking about it It was a lot more than most years.

I wonder if there was any other year since 2000 where three guys did it in the same year. 2014. And that was Beckham, Evans, Watkins, and Kelvin Benjamin. How much, though, does pedigree factor into this? Because the 2014 guys, a lot of those guys were first-round picks. Yeah. And they hit. last year's class. Brown was a second round pick.

Metcalf was a third round pick. McCorn was the third round pick. Now that doesn't mean that they should have been drafted in those ranges. Clearly, as we saw in their rookie seasons, but is that who they really are to, to, to Ben statement?

Um, you know, we keep saying AJ Brown is, you know, T.O. Like and Quambolden like, you know, uh, more T.J. Brown is, you know, T.O. like, Anquan Bolden like, you know, more T.O. like, obviously. But, you know, is it just a flash in the pan, you know, or is Metcalf, like Dave alluded to, and McLaurin,

not Metcalf, is McLaurin, you know, or A.J. Brown, for example, going to struggle with being the number one guy now that there's a book on them and defenses know how to study them and play them and take some things away. So that's the fascinating thing about all this is where do they go this year and how much do you invest in them? Because I think, you know, I see Adam in your notes. You had a question, who's your favorite year two wide receiver? For me, it's the one I can get the latest of the big guys.

You know, Marquise Brown is probably the one that you can end up with that still has a chance to be really good. But I think it's do you want to take a chance on A.J. Brown in round three or round four, Metcalf in round four or round five, McCorn in that same range, or just, okay, maybe not gamble on those type of players and take somebody who's a little bit more proven to a degree, whether it's a T.Y. Hilton, A.J. Green, those type of guys that are going in that same,

Stephon Diggs, even though he's on the team, but same range, but at least you know what they've been able to do in their careers at this point. There's another wrinkle. What if defenses figure out what their quarterbacks can do? Oh, thank you for bringing that up. So one of the things that I noticed, the players who didn't do well, the sophomore wide receivers who struggled,

now there were common themes. There were three things. One, they didn't play as well. That happens sometimes. Keenan Allen and Quan Bolden, they didn't play as well. Two, a weapon was added to the offense or a weapon returned from injury. For example, Joey Galloway was, I guess it was probably with Michael Clayton, I think. Yes, Michael Clayton.

So Galloway missed six games in Clayton's rookie season. In Clayton's second season, Galloway stayed healthy. Malcolm Floyd. We forget about Malcolm Floyd, but he played only two games in Keenan Allen's rookie season. Then he played a full season in Allen's second season, and Floyd actually led the team in receiving. I think Gates was hurt, too.

Okay. There's that. There's also the quarterbacks got worse, whether it was the same guy, like we mentioned in Tampa Bay with Mike Williams, or whether it was like in Denver with Eddie Royal, where they went from Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton. So I think, Dave, to be honest with you, I looked at it. I don't see that happening, I don't think, with any of these wide receivers.

None of them are getting added competition except for Debo. None of them have a guy returning from injury. I don't think any of them are going to be in worse pass offenses. In fact, with McLaurin and with Slayton, it could get a hell of a lot better. With Baltimore, they might throw for more yards. So I looked at those three factors. Other than a guy I can't factor in who's going to play worse.

You know what? McLaurin's getting some company. It may not be elite company, but he's getting company. He's getting a running back that's the most talented guy on that backfield. He's getting a rookie running back that's going to be a factor in the passing game. And then another receiver who may or may not be a factor, but could take away some targets. I mean, you know, so. Someone will, whether it's Harmon or Gandy Gold.

And even Sims emerging late last year. Calvin Harmon emerging late last year. I mean, McLaurin does. If McLaurin's good, then he's not going to be bothered by these guys. Totally agree. Totally agree. But again, you know,

it's not just... I wouldn't just necessarily... Like, Tennessee added nothing. That's pretty clear. You know, they didn't do anything to change what their dynamic is in their offense.

But you know what, Jamie? That's the team whose quarterback's going to play worse. Tennessee. I was just about to ask Ben that because I don't ever hear Ben, I think, go back at Heath with

the regression and how it impacts A.J. Brown. So I'm curious, Ben, if Daniel takes that step backwards, if you agree with that, how much does that hurt A.J. Brown? I think A.J. Brown's going to regress. What I think and it's almost like how much time do you have

but I have a really long take on this. But essentially, since 2014 when – since the day I was born. Since 2014 when they – right after the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, they increased the enforcement of – so it's not like an arbitrary date. But they increased the enforcement of illegal contact and defensive holding and i've used this cut off in a lot of research i've done over the last few years because we started to see both passing efficiency increase and the increase of the shotgun formation and the three wide receiver set it dates back to that off season after the super bowl um and since then there's only been four teams that have thrown for fewer than 450 passes.

Interestingly, the Titans in 2018 and the Titans in 2019 are two of those four teams. So are the Ravens in 2019. There was none from 2014 to 2017. We've had four in the last two years now. But essentially, Heath has made this case that A.J. Brown is not going to get to a certain amount of targets. From Week 10 on, when A.J. Brown was playing full snaps, that's when he first got full snaps at week 10, they paced for under 400 pass attempts. The only way you pace for under 400 pass attempts is if you're wildly efficient, is if Derrick Henry is as good as he is. And if you have a receiver like A.J. Brown with the yak that he was putting up, then your drives are five plays instead of 10 plays.

Right. Like you're not throwing as many passes. Fundamentally, if A.J. Brown regresses and if Ryan Tannehill regresses, they will throw more passes. They can't pace for fewer than 400 passes. I don't even know if they'll hit 450. I think that's still a really low number, even though that's where they've been the last couple of years, right in that range. So I think their pass attempts have to rise. And then the other side of it that i'm looking at is asia brown had 25 of their targets from week 10 on as well even though they were pacing under 400 attempts which is why he will say even in that range he was pacing for under 100 targets but there's no way they're going to throw 400 attempts it's just it won't happen in 2020 nfl for a full season it can happen for a half season when you're wildly efficient like tennessee was but the point is the same way that the stats

um you know matter and efficiency matters we still have to look at the film and what happens on the field and how these stats are compiled and the reason that tennessee threw so few passes is because of that efficiency it's because that's what happens that's that's there are interrelated and so once that efficiency comes down if you're going to regress it you have to add pass attempts to what's going to happen in their season they won't be able to have the same types of uh that they want to be a run team i'm not denying that but they will throw more passes and i think aj brown's 25 share of the offense uh from that point on will carry over in fact i think it's more likely to rise than to decrease.

So if you talk about 450 pass attempts, 25%, you're over 110 targets already. I think he has upside over 120 or 130 because I think he could be a 30% target share guy in an offense like this. My connection cut out. Can you repeat that? That was really interesting, actually. That was good stuff. Very, very helpful.

I would make the overall point based on everything I've been saying about this group of players who got these yards as rookies. If A.J. Brown is as good as the other players on this list, they'll throw the ball to him more. I mean, because he just had an incredible season. He had basically the same numbers as A.J. Green. What happens if Derek Henry gets hurt? That's the other side of this because I can keep going. Because that's when they come 500 times, and that's when A.J. Brown becomes their offense.

He's their best player by a mile if Derrick Henry gets hurt. They have to run their offense through him at that point. That's the upside. I don't know if they run the offense through A.J. Brown if Derrick Henry gets hurt, but I do think they'll have to be more past thinking. They can't just say, all right, we're going to pound the rock with Darrington Evans 25 times a game. That would absolutely help A.J. Brown, but it would also

help everybody else in that offense. The offense would run through Tannehill, which might have just made you freak a little. I think you can disagree with this point for sure. But I think AJ Brown already showed in 2019 and especially, and I've said this before with young guys, I look back to their college career and he was so much better than Metcalf. This guy is an elite receiver already. And like recognizing that early.

And the reason I'm so confident saying that is because there's so much value in recognizing it early. I think even in dynasty leagues, yes, he's really, really expensive, but he's still too cheap like he's he's i think he's an elite receiver already uh and i think he showed that last year and again in college i think the gap between him the thing you could argue with i think the gap between him and all the other pass catchers in this offense is massive oh yeah so let's talk about then just the guys who got a thousand yards as

rookies since 2000 and where they finished in their second year. AJ green finished as a top four receiver, Marcus Colston, top eight. Uh, let's see a thousand yards for Amari Cooper, uh, 14th and non PPR 16th and PPR Odell Beckham finished fifth.

Uh, Michael Thomas finished eighth. Mike Evans had 1,000 yards as a rookie, and he had 1,200 yards and three touchdowns, so he finished just outside the top 20. Kelvin Benjamin had 1,000 yards, tore his ACL. Anquan Bolden had almost 1,400 yards, and he struggled as a second-year guy.

Michael Clayton. This got worse and worse. Michael Clayton. This list has got worse and worse. Michael Clayton, 1,200 yards. Keenan Allen, 1,046 yards. So there are some serious success stories and some bad ones there as well. All of them. All of them had a lot more targets. A lot more targets in their rookie year than A.J. Brown,

who had only 84 targets and still had 1,051 yards receiving. All right. Let me ask you those questions that Jamie alluded to about who has the most upside, who has the most downside, who's your favorite, who's going to have the best ADP, etc. We're going to get to that right after this quick break. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety

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second-year wide receiver, guys? I wonder who Gretchen's is. I think it might be Terry McClure. Brown across the board? It is for me, yeah. Okay. Who will have the best ADP? What is that in terms of

lowest? No, in terms of best value. I like Jamie's Marquis Brown call. I'm coming around to him a lot. He's too cheap. I was going to say, I thought you were going to kill Harry because you get him for nothing. That might be the one.

I'd like to focus though, focus mostly on just the six that actually did something last year. Brown. All right, put me down for Debo. Debo. Again, for me, it's the one you get last. I said Brown, but I meant Marquise.

Yeah, Marquise Brown. Okay, who has the most upside? Same answer because it's coming from the lowest position. Oh, that's interesting. Yeah. Do you mean raw upside or chance to beat ADP upside? Raw upside. All right.

So the most likely to have 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns finishes a top five fantasy receiver. AJ Brown. Yeah. I think you can make the receiver. A.J. Brown. Yeah. I think you can make the case for both the Ole Miss guys. I think you can make the case for Brown, and I think you can make the case for D.K. Metcalf. I think the only way it happens for Metcalf is if Tyler Lockett gets hurt.

Or they have to change the offense and throw a lot, right? Maybe, yeah. It's hard to see A.J. Brown get there, though, if he's only got 105 targets, something like that. I think his floor was 110. Don't make me do that again. I think Ben's point is right. They're going to put the ball in his hands more,

Henry injury or not. Does DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett Remind you at all of Julio Jones and Roddy White I wonder who we ranked higher Going into Julio's second season I like that comp Thank you

It's kind of a weird comp because I don't think Tyler Lockett doesn't have the size that either of those guys have. White was older too, I think. Receivers who are going to get a lot of volume focused in on them. The question also, I think, is as good as DK

Metcalf was in his rookie season, and I still think we should look positively at him. And I agree with Dave. He has monster upside. He's an amazing athlete, and he's hurt a lot at Ole Miss. But i the question is is he as good of a player uh even as lockett but especially when we make a comp with you know julio jones like i i he wasn't that productive in college so last year was really the first time we saw it right and it was good and so that that's a guy who okay he got his first taste in the NFL.

Now he kind of knows what he's doing going into his second season. The double teams can't be there. I'd be stunned if they were there. Tyler Lockett's going to have a top five year if they're there. So I think that there is room for him to improve. I think, and he's, you know, same quarterback, same offense. I'm pretty bullish on DK now that I think about it. Tough matchups, unfortunately.

But they said they're going to move him around, which would be very nice. That's the key. That and then throwing him home. I think so, too. Who has the most downside? McLaurin. Unfortunately, A.J. Brown, because he's going to be drafted first. But McLaurin will be close to him. Around that.

Yeah. I mean, based on our drafts, you know, A.J. Brown's going around three and McLaurin's going late around four, sometimes around five. Is A.J. Brown going to be a consistent round three pick? No, that's something I think I think you go. Is that just because you go around for A.J. Brown? You go around five or around six for McLaurin. See, I don't know if it's going to be that way in regular drafts because Brown had the great second half. McLaurin was pretty well, he was good for most of the year until he got hurt.

He's got some notoriety behind him. I think casual fantasy drafters might not be quite up to speed on A.J. Brown, and they might think, oh, you know, Titans. It's also that you follow rank lists, though, too. You know what I mean? If you're talking about just a casual player, they follow just the list. That's true, and I don't think many people are going to have McLaurin ranked over Brown. I know we don't.

Maybe you're right. I wonder if McLaurin had played out two more games, and maybe he gets to 65 catches, 1,000 yards. He had seven touchdowns. Maybe it's eight touchdowns, but he gets the most targets. He gets 105, 100, probably 105 targets, something like that. Instead of his numbers, he would have had, in that case, if he had 105 targets, he would have had 21 more than A.J. Brown.

As it is now, he has nine more targets, but he missed two games. I'm very impressed with what Terry McCorin did. Very impressed. Especially since they fired Jay Gruden and became this ground-and-pound team that just ran, ran, ran, ran, ran. Now they have a new coaching staff. Haskins hopefully shows some improvement. Got a little bit better late in the year, I think. Those two guys know each other. That helps.

Playing with each other in college, that certainly helps. I'm the one that said it. While they added guys, there's no difference maker, at least right now, coming on to that team. Gandy Golden may be great, but he's a fourth-round pick for a reason. Gibson is going to be in his hybrid role. I don't think he's going to be Christian McCaffrey, Gandy Golden may be great, but he's a fourth round pick for a reason.

Gibson is, you know, going to be in this hybrid role. I don't think he's going to be Christian McCaffrey, no matter what they say. And so, you know, while Steve Sims played really well at the end of last season, it didn't impact what McCormick was able to do. Same thing with Harmon. So the question becomes is, can he ascend based on, you know, going back to like what Ben said, his profile coming out of college was nowhere near what he played like as a rookie. And so, you know, I think that's the encouraging thing on the other side of it is, OK, did he maybe get a little bit stifled by the talent around him at Ohio State and not get a chance to flourish a little bit? I think he's to me, he's in the right spot. Round four, round five, a guy you take as a number two two receiver he may not get to the ceiling of somebody like aj brown i also think when people are drafting him

you have biases against certain teams when you're talking about casual player people have a bias against washington reskins it's just the nature of how people look at that team they've been so bad for so long um you know and and they haven't had this you know dynamic receiver that has the chance that that mccorn may have the chance to get to. And if Dwayne, I agree, this is an offense I've looked at. If Dwayne Haskins has any kind of improvement, I mean, he didn't even get a chance to throw 30 passes in a game. I don't think last year, cause like Adam said, once he took over, they were already into that Bill Callahan run, run, run, run, run stuff.

But if Dwayne Haskins takes any kind of a step forward and is a good, even, even average NFL quarterback, this offense could be reasonable for fantasy. Not good, but not as bad as we think of it. They have a lot of running back talent. We know that. And outside of McLaurin, Stephen Sims came on late as an interesting slot receiver. And then they added Gandy Golden. And they also have Kelvin Harmon, who was all right.

I mean, they have a lot of young upside players. A couple of them emerged into something like Sims kind of did late, and obviously McLaurin did the whole year. And this offense is at least worth looking at, right? It's going to be a good defense too. I mean, you know, they have some good parts, and Chase Young can make them really, really good. They were already decent.

They're secondary though. Yikes. Secondary is bad, but, you know, but you only have pass rush can cover it up. You shave off half a second with that pass rush. It makes the secondary look a lot better. So I don't know if everybody gave an answer for downside. I've got to throw Debo's name in the hat here because so much of his production came in two games without George Kittle.

They drafted a wide receiver in round one. Like I mentioned, one of the things that made some of those bust wide receivers in their second year be bad was increased competition, and Debo gets that. They're a run-heavy offense, and I don't know how much you can rely on. I think he had three rushing touchdowns

last year, and I think he led all wide receivers in rushing yards. That might not hold up. So I see a lot of downside for him. I think for me it's either McLaurin or potentially Slayton, depending on how much you're controlling for draft cost. Obviously Slayton's a lot cheaper, but he could get boxed out, I think. I think a big reason he got so many targets, as we've talked about,

is none of the other guys ever played at the same time in any game, right? Who, Slayton? Yeah. That's not exactly... Oh, that's probably true with Ingram. I think it was only like one time they had everybody healthy. Yeah. And that was before I think Slayton was doing

much. I do have some numbers if you want to compare stats for all the Giants wide receivers with Daniel Jones with there were three games where Daniel Jones and all three wide receivers played and Slayton had

Ingram played in one of those games. Slayton had the worst numbers but you know he's a rookie. I get the sense that Golden Tate isn't really that good anymore. He's like 31. His numbers were deceiving, though. He actually wasn't that bad.

He wasn't that bad. I wonder if you take away that kind of fluky 70-ish yard touchdown catch against the Patriots, what his numbers look like. But Daniel Jones is a much better fit for Slayton than Eli Manning, obviously. And Slayton's a better fit for Jones than I think Shepard and Tate are. And then you got the Jason Guerra thing that they brought up. So we'll say let's do some player debates. AJ Brown or Odell Beckham?

Brown. Brown. Okay, I'm not even going to ask. Terry McClure or T.Y. Hilton i still have mcclure and overhilton in my rankings uh mcclure i have hilton higher dk metcalf or tyler boyd dk i have boyd higher oh i take a lot of a lot of the young receivers in our draft. But yeah, you've named a couple of veterans that I'm a little bit higher on than those guys.

Deebo Samuel or Marvin Jones? Deebo by a lot. Jones for me. I have Deebo by 19 spots in my wide receiver ranking. But you love Stafford. I do. And I don't think Marvin Jones is a bad pick. It's just a fundamental chasing upside concept, right?

Like, I don't think Marvin Jones really has massive upside. I think he's a boring player who's going to be fine. But I want to take a second-year receiver that maybe could be a star. Twice a year, Marvin Jones goes crazy. And then the rest of the games, he's milk toast. Darius Slayton or Christian Kirk?

I have Kirk. I'm not the biggest Kirk fan in the world, and I've got Kirk. Kirk is a really good third-year wide receiver breakout, I think. He's still super young. He's actually younger than McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, who are both rookies last year. I think. He's still super young. He's actually younger than McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, who are both rookies last year.

I think he could really benefit from DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona in a way that people don't really realize yet. Finally, Jamie, you want to go there, Slayton or Kirk? I don't know if I heard you. I said Kirk. Okay. Marquise Brown or Jamison Crowder? Brown.

Crowder and Peeper. I'm talking about milk toast. Jamison Crowder? Brown. Crowder and PPR. I'm talking about milk toast. Jamison Crowder. He's totally different in PPR, though. Yeah. Just because he's got the potential to have a bunch of six and seven catch games. Okay.

Well, I hope this was a helpful discussion. An interesting concept, interesting topic. And if you have any questions, any follow-ups, send them to fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. In the meantime, let's read some Apple podcast questions. Appreciate all the reviews, people.

Really appreciate it. Thank you so much. Leave us a five-star review and a nice comment and ask your question and we'll read it on the show. From rcodyd, in theory,

if picking at the one-two turn, should you always take your top two guys, or should position be a factor? If I like Julio Hopkins, Henry, and Eckler in that order, and I take both wide receivers, I could imagine being stuck with girly, four-net, David Johnson types at the 3-4 turn, while really good wide receivers like Kup, Thielen, and Lockett could still be had. What do you say, guys?

This is a good exercise to go through if you know you're picking toward or at the 1-2 turn. It's to think about, alright, here are the running backs that are going to be left when I'm up in late round three and early round four. How comfortable am I with those players? Maybe two of them being in my starting lineup.

And if you're not comfortable at all, then take at least one with one of your first two picks. Yeah, I think position should be a huge factor, always. I wrote a couple years ago, a while back, when I was just kind of starting out, but I wrote an article about drafting from the very end of the draft backwards to the front. What are the positions that you feel really good about your round 12 round 13 round 14 targets this year and and considering where you think you can get

depth and then trying to work your way back a little bit because yeah you have to absolutely consider how you can fill out your roster uh from justin in jersey i'm attempting to trade austin who was that was that a was that a like dismissing ben? Or was that a hmm, the interesting Ben? No, it was interesting. It was hard to read. I think that was him transitioning to the next question. Yeah, yeah. That was his segue. He just moved on.

It was hmm. I think you missed the hmm in there. It was an hmm. No, I didn't. Check the tape. I don't think the listeners missed it either. From Justin in Jersey. I'm attempting to trade Austin Hooper for a wide receiver or a running back

as I have Higby and Hayden Hurst. He's got too many H tight ends. Higby, Hurst, and Hooper. Who should he target for Austin Hooper? I assume this is Dynasty. I mean, I'd target Christian McCaffrey. I would too. I like that deal.

Mm-hmm. I think after our discussion today, we should say, like... Marquise Brown. Yeah. I don't know if anyone's going to do that, but... Would everybody... I think the Brown owner would probably do that if they're not smart. Wait. Who would you rather have in Dynasty, Marquise Brown or Austin Hooper?

Marquise Brown. Brown. That's what I'm saying. I don't think the Marquise Brown owner would do that. He wouldn't do that, right. What if you're throwing in a pick, Hooper and a two for Marquise Brown? You might be overpaying.

Yeah, I would add a two probably. This is from WakeUp23. We're going to add a single defensive player to our rosters this year. Should we add a linebacker defensive back or safety? Why do you have to pick one of them? Why can't you just have defensive player can be any position. It's going to end up being a linebacker. If you're only adding one player,

though, those guys get the most stats. Okay. Thank you. Talk to you on Friday. We we got another show coming up regression to the mean what does it mean we'll tell you about it we'll talk about uh me and thanks so much for tuning in everybody we appreciate it ben ben goes on this nice answer about how the story he wrote, he was all proud of it. Ben, what are you doing right now for the next 10 minutes?

Beating you in Tecmo Super Bowl. Let's give it a shot. Let's give it a shot. I want to see how I stack up here. I gotta go through some training to get out to Ben Gretsch's level. We're Gumbel the Gumbel here on Fantasy Football Today.

We'll talk to you on Friday.