Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - 10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your Fantasy League - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/14

Episode Date: August 14, 2024

League-winning tips and advice on today’s fantasy football podcast! Andy, Mike, and Jason deliver lessons learned and actionable tips for fantasy football managers! Don’t miss this special episode... headed into your drafts and the 2024 season! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for August 14th, 2024. 2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com (00:00) - Intro (04:20) - Hungry For More (04:45) - Jermaine Burton (06:30) - Tyjae Spears (09:00) - Ben Sinnott (12:30) - NFL News (22:15) - Top 10 Tips & Tricks (22:55) - Don’t live in the past (27:55) - Make delicious boxes (31:45) - Finding the late round RBs (36:00) - Re-roll your tight end (39:50) - Stacks on stacks on stacks (44:00) - QB ADP History (48:30) - Build a dynamic duo (51:55) - Take dumps now, not later (57:40) - The importance of offense (01:02:05) - Start fresh Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Check out today's sponsors: Hungry For More presented by Uber Eats News & Notes presented by USAA. Visit https://USAA.com/Insurance Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,
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Starting point is 00:00:48 Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages. Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to crush, humiliate, and totally destroy your competition and your fantasy football draft. It's incredibly simple, so let me just break it down for you. Ultimate Draft Kit. The Ultimate Draft Kit for the fantasy footballers is hands down the best fantasy tool in existence. I mean, come on. It's got sleepers, it's got busts, injury updates, full projections. This thing's even got full dynasty rankings. Don't overthink on. It's got sleepers, it's got busts, injury updates, full projections.
Starting point is 00:01:27 This thing's even got full dynasty rankings. Don't overthink this. It's the only wingman you'll need this year. Head over to UltimateDraftKid.com and grab your copy right away. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Big, big episode. The fantasy footballers Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway. Coming at you. Coming to Yeehaw.
Starting point is 00:02:26 Yeehaw. Let's go. Top 10 tips and tricks. Yeehaw. Thank you. Yeah, it's a big episode. Top 10 tips and tricks to win your league. This is our 10th season. And I'm pretty sure we've done this every year.
Starting point is 00:02:44 So we've got to be pushing. That's a hundred. That's a hundred ways that you can give yourself an advantage. We always try to bring something new to the table, so we've got 10 tips and tricks, some strategy advice for you on the show today.
Starting point is 00:03:00 I'm excited. I think it's going to be fun. I am too. I've been looking forward to this show for quite a while, and I'm also looking I think it's going to be fun. I am too. I've been looking forward to this show for quite a while, and I'm also looking forward to tomorrow's episode, whatever it is. We don't know. I mean, we do. Well, we know. Yeah, we know.
Starting point is 00:03:15 They don't know. Yeah. They're very good episodes this week. I'll say this. Today's the top 10 tips and tricks episode. They're narrowing it down. They'll never figure it out. And my guys is coming soon. It's this week, but it could be Friday.
Starting point is 00:03:29 It could be Thursday or Friday. Lots going on. Very, very excited to have you with us. Thank you for supporting the show. Shout out to the Foot Clan. Everybody supporting it. Join thefoot.com. Shout out to everybody coming out to see us in Los Angeles in less than two weeks, which you can do.
Starting point is 00:03:48 Ballerslive.com if you want to know more about our live event at the Palace Theater in Los Angeles, presented by Sleeper. And, of course, I mean, I don't want to bury this because it's the biggest week for the UDK and for this giveaway. UDK. But on Friday, we've got the UDK for Life giveaway live on YouTube. We'll be streaming the giveaway. We'll be giving away a Justin Jefferson jersey.
Starting point is 00:04:14 And all you have to do is pick up the UDK before Friday. So if you bought it in the past, you're entered to win. If you haven't bought it yet, you're kind of behind the eight ball here. As long as the past was this year you have to have gotten the 2024 ultimate draft kit uh you're not entered if you're the 2017 to automatically be in there but uh yeah go get it now i mean this is the time man this is draft season is upon us we're right around the corner take a look at the 100 plus video profile you know uh breakdowns of each of the top players our tiered rankings that's the way we try to encourage everyone to draft is based on tiers we're going to give you
Starting point is 00:04:51 a lot of tips and tricks today and some of them will be you know it'll correlate to what you can do with that tool yep and this is the time we we see it every year people are listening but this is when they jump into the ultimate draft kit that. That's ultimatedraftkit.com. All right, I'm excited about this. We had a week one of preseason football, so let's talk about it. Welcome to Hungry for More, presented by Uber Eats. All right. Looking at preseason week one and players we are hungry for more from. I have to bring up a name that is kind of, you know,
Starting point is 00:05:41 it's percolated throughout the offseason, and there are other names involved in the wide receiver discussion in Cincinnati. But it doesn't hurt if you come out in week one and go 3 for 82 and a big touchdown. Jermaine Burton of the Cincinnati Bengals. The big play is the M.O. for Jermaine Burton. So to see it in preseason week one, I mean, this is a guy that was top five or actually he led power five wide receivers in average depth of target. Yeah, we got to hit him with that number.
Starting point is 00:06:12 Average depth of target. So this is how far he was down the field on average when he was catching the ball. 20.2 yards down the field. That's unbelievable he was also like third fastest and next gen stats and ran a 4-4-5 so you know you talk about what makes a wide receiver three if he ends up winning that job valuable when you're not number one in the pecking order of targets or number two with higgins and Chase it is the big play and even Tyler Boyd it sounds funny because we don't look at Tyler Boyd as an explosive player
Starting point is 00:06:50 necessarily by you know kind of archetype but in that offense even Tyler Boyd yeah regularly was kind of forgotten about by the secondary and would end up with these big plays so I want to see more Jermaine Burton in the preseason I love this call so much I mean he he should be higher in most people's dynasty rankings and and perceived long-term value than he is right now I think he's undervalued T Higgins obviously is not going to be on this team next year at least that's what it seems like right now and so you're talking about a future two for Joe Burrow I love it I'm going to talk about a current two, but not really for the Tennessee Titans running game. And that's Tajay Spears. I want to see more of Tajay Spears.
Starting point is 00:07:30 It's very, very interesting. This entire off season, there has been complete consistency from the coaching staff about their running back core, that they have two starters, that it is a 1A and a 1A. I mean, 1A, 1B at the least. Someone's going to get the first step. Tony Pollard had a great preseason game. He got the first snap. Second snap, Spears. Then they basically, every couple plays, they just rotate it out. We haven't really seen something like that a lot, but this is really truly that both of those guys could be out there on every single down. All the plays, they're capable of playing. Should either one of them get injured, the other could be a really great asset.
Starting point is 00:08:09 But when I look at these two players and I think, okay, Tony Pollard looked good this preseason game. He's getting paid more, sure. But look at last year and look at, you know, last year Tony Pollard was disappointing. He was not the same explosive back he was years prior, and he's older than you think he is now, whereas Tajay Spears was extremely explosive. He had a reception of 48 yards, a reception of 42 yards, a reception of 89 yards, a reception of 41. He's a really explosive back, and if he's being utilized and they go with the hot hand. I think there's a good chance that his hand is hotter than Tony Pollard
Starting point is 00:08:47 as the season goes on. Is that the test on the sideline? Do they physically? Yeah, they do a handshake. Oh, they don't go the laser thermometer? No, no, no. This is coach feel, man. This is straight up give me a hearty handshake on the sideline.
Starting point is 00:09:03 Line up. Pollard, you get first handshake. Tajay, you get second. Give me one of your strong – and he's going to be like, whoa. Literal hot hand approach. That's exactly right. Look, I like the idea of them having kind of an old school green chalkboard on the sideline, and it's just a dash for every carry for each guy and evens it up.
Starting point is 00:09:22 When he said Spears was in on the second snap, it was imagine if like, no matter what the rules for the Titans are, it's every other snap. Oh, no matter. No matter. It's locked. Do you know how tired those running backs would be?
Starting point is 00:09:35 It's not like half the running is getting off the field. The amount of running just to get out. There's like, coach, please leave me on the field. I'm tired. Every snap, believe it or not, we have a, uh, Sam DeSorbo wrote a does the hot hand exists article on the website that you can go look up.
Starting point is 00:09:52 So apparently we have an article for everything you could say, Jason. Sweet. Which is scary. All right, Mike, who do you got? Who are you hungry for more? I am the Senate. Ben Senate, baby. The Senator of Washington.
Starting point is 00:10:03 Did you see it? Did you see the play? I am famished and I need more Ben Sennett. More Sennett. I need more Ben Sennett in my life. It was rumbling and bumbling and stumbling and dragging multiple defenders just down the field. He looks like the guy that I scouted and hoped it would translate.
Starting point is 00:10:26 He is a rookie tight end for Washington. Yeah, yeah, yes. Voice of public opinion. Zach Ertz is eternal and immortal. He is, and unfortunately, the offensive coordinator, Cliff Kingsbury, loves Zach Ertz, so I still do think that it takes
Starting point is 00:10:42 time for Ben Sinnott. However, this is about being hungry for more of a player, and it's hard to have a better debut in limited snaps than what he put out there. Three for 57. The big catch was 44 yards. He looked big. He looked strong. He looked fast, and this is what I need from a tight end.
Starting point is 00:11:05 So hopefully, sooner than later, hopefully, Ben Sinnott can take the job. He was the highest graded rookie tight end or highest graded from PFF. So it's just very exciting. It is a little bit comical, the parallels between the McBride and the patients. It's outrageous. You saw the individual plays for McBride, and it was stuff like dragging guys down the field or breaking tackles. And then you see this from Sennett, and both had Zach Ertz just, you know.
Starting point is 00:11:39 Catching and falling. And Cliff Kingsbury involved in their maturation process. But good names. Good names for Hungry for More. That was Hungry for More presented by Uber Eats. Get almost almost anything for game day delivered with Uber Eats, official on-demand food delivery partner of the NFL. Order now.
Starting point is 00:11:57 And I will say this. What? We are. This is not a tip or trick to win on game day but it is give us one to lose it is a uh i figured you could write that book um the tips and tricks that i i mean what we eat what we get delivered is very dependent on how the week and day is going. Oh, for sure. I'm just saying we've had some ice cream afternoons to kind of medicate away the pain, and then we've had some celebratory meals.
Starting point is 00:12:34 It's so fabulous on a Sunday morning to have, like if you're watching your fantasy team and your guys put up an absolute stinker, you're in a bad – it's not my fault I'm in a bad mood. It's their fault. And you know what? It's not my fault I'm going to put down a half gallon of ice cream right now.
Starting point is 00:12:53 That's their fault. That is – But I'm going to love it. That's how it works. Yeah, it's my player's fault. This Crunchwrap Supreme is in my mouth. It's your fault fault can you imagine when you talk to your doctor and they're like sir uh what are some of the things leading to
Starting point is 00:13:12 your challenges with food tony pollard who's that um all right let's jump in news and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. All right, we've got news for you. We do. Jamar Chase, Mike, you are not doing work with your guys at all. Jamar Chase missed Tuesday's practice.
Starting point is 00:13:41 Keeping him healthy. He's awaiting a contract extension still. So he had been showing up and involved during drills. I don't like. You go next level. Yeah. As you say, what's the like, come back, do some drills and I'm out again. It's just, I mean, give me my money.
Starting point is 00:13:56 Give me my money or I'm going to go home and figure it out. I'm curious. So like, obviously Jamar Chase, he's, he's by rule has to be fined for all of these missed practices in the new collective bargaining agreement. Same with C.D. Lamb. All these guys. Which cannot be rescinded. They can't be rescinded, but they can be restored on the contract. Like, they add it usually to the contract that they eventually sign.
Starting point is 00:14:18 But I was thinking about that with Brandon Ayuk. Like, if he ends up getting traded, he's probably just losing that money. You know what I mean? Maybe. Are the Steelers going to add in all of his fines from him missing practices on the Niners? I don't know. I think they're going to add in so much. I mean, the contract's going to be beautiful.
Starting point is 00:14:36 So, I mean, right now, I mean, we don't have it. We don't have an update officially. For Iyuk. But I do. I mean, it's worth bringing up right here just to give you a lay of the land. If you're listening to this show and you want to know what's going on and we have been talking about Brandon Iuke,
Starting point is 00:14:50 as it stands right now, essentially what's being reported by the best in the business is a contract agreement and a trade has been agreed to in principle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the San Francisco 49ers.
Starting point is 00:15:05 The only thing remaining is for the 49ers to give their final sign off to the deal. The reason that hasn't happened yet is because they have made some final overtures to Brandon Ayuk about a long-term deal. And it seems like it's going to come down to Brandon Ayuk choosing a financially better situation for a team he does want to play for. He wants to go to Pittsburgh or San Francisco coming far enough on their offer to bridge that gap and keep him in a situation where he's thrived. The last report I saw is it's just a difference of years now from San Francisco. Again, these are all secondhand reports that we're getting, but there was news yesterday that, oh, well, San Francisco, they've come up.
Starting point is 00:15:55 They're not that far apart. But if you're like, no, you're a full year apart, that's a big amount of money actually apart. Yeah, I mean, we've all been in fantasy leagues where we're trying to trade for a guy. And that owner's like, yeah, I think I'm going to do it. I just got to talk to my co-manager. I got to do something.
Starting point is 00:16:17 I'll get back to you. Let me run the numbers. Can you imagine how upset the Steelers are right now? Like the GM in the office, his door is shut and he's cursing out the night. He's like, come on! You've had weeks! You know what's funny is you asked me the question on the show like a month ago
Starting point is 00:16:33 about how long would you wait for a deal. And the truth is if I think it's in my advantage, I wait like I waited two weeks for a deal in our dynasty league because I liked it for myself. So maybe the Steelers are in that boat where it's like, Oh, they are.
Starting point is 00:16:47 We didn't expect the chance to get a guy like Brandon Ayuk. It's on the table. We might as well just ride this thing. I guess I'm saying shame on you Niners. That's what I'm saying. I'm saying, come on. I'm saying, come on. If they make a trade and they get something in return,
Starting point is 00:17:04 it's not helping them to wait. Get ready for the season with the personnel you have, and it's not helping Brandon Ayuk if you are going to bring him back to not have him on the field practicing. So, yeah, the delay, not great. This is great, though. Lions head coach Dan Campbell, a.k.a. Guns Mahoney, says he thinks Jameer Gibbs is, quote, going to be fine.
Starting point is 00:17:22 Oh, yeah? Keep reading there. Let me give you the exact quote. I think we're going gonna be fine oh yeah keep keep keep reading there uh let me let me give you the exact quote I think we're gonna be fine here Campbell said so I think we'll be good okay he's he's thinking he's thinking they're fine thinking they're good that's not a doctor that I mean okay do you want that reply or do you want the Jim Harbaugh reply of I'm not even qualified to be qualified to talk about this do you want the Jim Harbaugh reply of, I'm not even qualified to be qualified to talk about this?
Starting point is 00:17:48 Do you want the tantalizing possibility of him being fine or do you want nothing at all? No, I think I do prefer this, the dog in the fire gif where this is fine. We're all fine here. You know, I mean, I guess it's better than saying I don't think we're going to be fine. I think we're going to miss games. But when you hear this, it makes me feel like. Could have been more certain. It makes me a little fearful of week one.
Starting point is 00:18:15 Like, this sounds to me, not a doctor, but this sounds to me like I think we're going to be okay for week one. I want you to say we will be. All right. Hollywood Brown, four to six weeks. I want you to say we will be. All right. Hollywood Brown, four to six weeks. Mike, you had kind of nailed this. You had talked about some previous injury history with this. I'm going to go for it. Sternoclavicular?
Starting point is 00:18:35 Yep. Nailed it. Injury. So here we are, Justin Watson taking reps with the first team. And that is because when Hollywood went down, they put in Sky Moore in replacement during the first preseason game. And then they went, oh, that sucks. Justin Watson, you are now.
Starting point is 00:18:56 You're kind of like summarizing what you think the internal thoughts were. Yeah. Tyrone Tracy. I think they're like, who let Sky go out there again? He just ran out. Yeah. Who did this? I think they're like, who let Sky go out there again? He just ran out. Yeah. Who did this? With a Watson jersey on.
Starting point is 00:19:08 Giants rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. Wow. Was diagnosed with a low right ankle sprain after he got injured during practice. I'm sorry, everyone. We reported what was reported to us. It wasn't a made-up report we were told he was air casted and brought to a hospital for special surgery now the hospital clearly did they turn him away because they said dude you just got an ankle sprain like everybody like i love the
Starting point is 00:19:39 comments on this i think the falcon was sharing these with us yesterday because when these news you know the news breaks you look at the comments from these major reports. And it came out that he had a low right ankle sprain. And the first comment was like, I thought he was dead. It was like, how do you go from air cast season over to you'll be fine. You're in meetings and nothing's wrong. Yeah, he was back in meetings that day. Is this a pain tolerance issue?
Starting point is 00:20:04 He feels strong. So that's my question. Is there's really only two paths of truth here. It's either he is like a Wolverine and the doctors got out there. He doesn't have an ankle sprain anymore. Doctors got out there on the field and said, oh my gosh, air cast him. Get him to the hospital immediately. And by the time he's there, it's like, I'm good.
Starting point is 00:20:25 Or, or he's more like, you know, owl. And it's like, owie, owie, owie, owie, owie. And when he got injured on the field, it's like, owie, owie, owie, owie, owie. Thoughts on that owl? No, no thoughts. I have a third option. Owl's so tough. He paw pierced and he pooped his pants.
Starting point is 00:20:46 And he needed a way out. He needed a way off that field. Doc, tell him the foot's out. Tell him the foot's off my leg. What was Mac Jones turned down surgery? Oh yeah. Oh yeah. Lesser players would have got the surgery. Is that the Tyrone Tracy? Maybe. So anyways, the good news is here
Starting point is 00:21:01 Tyrone Tracy seems like he's going to be fine for the season. I guess. Awesome. That's big news. It is really good. I mean, all jokes aside, this is great news. Deontay Johnson, day-to-day with a groin strain. So groinindex.com, already updated.
Starting point is 00:21:18 And there you go. Getting news. What is this? This is an evolving or developing story. We just got word that Mike Evans is leaving. There's a joint practice right now between the Bucs and the Jaguars, and Mike Evans was seen leaving with helmet in hand. Now, it says specifically with Jags helmet in hand.
Starting point is 00:21:38 So I'm just curious. Did he rip a helmet off another player? It is written that way. We could have used a comma. Okay. Because it's leaving joint practice with Jags. I see. Comma. Helmet in hand.
Starting point is 00:21:52 Yes. Okay. I see it now. I so omitted it because I read it the same way. And I was like, that can't. This is not Rock and Jock. He got traded in the middle of practice. Or took a. Do, do, do, do, do, do.
Starting point is 00:22:02 Leaving with a Jags helmet on. Okay. Oh, man. He left the joint practice with the Jags helmet on. Okay. Oh, man. He left the joint practice with the Jags helmet in hand. Okay. We'll pay attention. He also pulled up in like a, did you see? He pulled up in a Bucs helmet.
Starting point is 00:22:14 He pulled up in like a Bucs. Literally. Like a gigantic car that was a Bucs helmet. Oh, for real. It was awesome. You got to see the video. All right. That was today's News and Notes presented by USAA Insurance.
Starting point is 00:22:26 Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. We will take a break, and we'll jump right into the tips and tricks. All right, it's time to jump into the tips and tricks to win your league. And again, one more reminder for you please come and join us for the megala show in los angeles presented by sleeper we've got we've got lots of giveaways going on live at the show from pristine auction we're working with fantasy cares as well and this is our 10th anniversary event you can go to ballerslive.com to come and join us next saturday yeah it's uh we gotta be part of the q a gonna
Starting point is 00:23:07 need to travel over there and to do the show i'm already there all right tips and tricks i don't know why you're laughing and i'm afraid to ask. It's the video. That video graphic was outstanding. I mean, you got Professor Holloway and Magician Jason. That was pretty silly. All right. Like a sweater on or something. This episode helps you win championships. So we want to bring something new each and every year.
Starting point is 00:23:43 Very excited. Time to kick it off. Number 10. All right, we'll call number 10. Don't live in the past, right? There were a lot of players drafted last year that had very, very hot starts to the season, and it is very much human nature,
Starting point is 00:24:03 the nature of fantasy football managers to believe that they are set that they have figured out exactly the roster that's going to carry them through the season just because players get off to a hot start examples of that like Travis Etienne and AJ Brown had the blistering pace and people traded for him. And Ken Walker started really, really strong. And I've got other examples for you. Tua was the quarterback five through the first eight weeks. From week nine on, quarterback 20. DeAndre Swift was the RB7.
Starting point is 00:24:40 From week 12 on, the RB35. I like that you have them called the hotness and the notness. The hotness and the notness. Yeah, these were players you thought were locks. In fact, I traded two at a mic on the basis of the first half of the season. He was presented to me as the hotness. Did you get the notness? No.
Starting point is 00:24:58 No. I got up close and realized this is not. Yeah, it's not good. Stephon Diggs was the wide receiver four from week 11 on, the wide receiver 46. And again, these are not small spans. These are top five, six, seven players for eight to ten weeks of the season. And then over the back half of the year,
Starting point is 00:25:17 they were players that you would have, in some cases, definitely pivoted away from, like Tua, was not going to win you a championship. So the message here, the tip here is don't copy and paste every previous week. It's not viable to simply do that. You do not win on paper. You do not win on the past or looking at previous stats. And here's a little bit of a nuanced part of the equation. It's not just the schedule changing. It's not just injury to your player, but there are also fundamental injuries that happen to players that your player is dependent on. So
Starting point is 00:25:53 that's something people don't necessarily pay attention to. You might have a hot start for a wide receiver, but their quarterback might go down. You might have a running back that's been dominant, but their offensive lineman might go down. So paying attention to more than the injuries for your exact player could help define the second half of the year, and it is easy and it's human nature to want to merely coast your way to the end with that beautifully pictured roster. But do not live in the past. Live week to week and make adjustments isolated to that time and place.
Starting point is 00:26:24 Okay, I've got a question for you on this no questions sorry all right the number nine um yeah so you traded Tua when he was the hotness you didn't even bring up like what I thought was last year's best example Patrick Mahomes who was the quarterback three through the first nine weeks and then then from week 10 on, he was the quarterback 18. At the halfway point through the season, or maybe five, six weeks in, are you willing to trade? Mahomes is more in the level of a Josh Allen, a Jalen Hurts. You're expecting what he did, and you're expecting it to continue forever versus a Tua, are you willing to take that first half of the season where you are hitting on your Josh Allen or your Jalen Hurts if you drafted them and trade them away to capitalize?
Starting point is 00:27:14 Obviously, if you trade them, you're getting a haul back. Or is there like a tear break where, you know, if it's not the super expected guys, you know, if it's someone more that was drafted later and they're exploding, is that who you're trying to capitalize on? I mean, yes. It's a good question because there are players like Tyreek Hill, for example, who you don't want to go in and just say, well, every player that's playing well for the first half, I want to trade.
Starting point is 00:27:38 That's not the message. The message is if you do trade those players that might be outperforming their average, that would be probably the first line of my thinking is, are they outperforming a standard that I would expect them to be able to perform at? If you make a trade and you're basing it off of players you think are going to perform in the back half of the year, that moment you make the trade is even value, right? Yes. So even if that player keeps playing at this pace and the players I got back keep playing at their pace right then,
Starting point is 00:28:08 I'm even, theoretically. Right. But if I make the judgment call, this player's outperforming and I like the schedule for this, guys, that's where I can flip the script. And the big component here is just don't sit back and think that I've got it all figured out, it's going to run this way the rest of the year. ETN was one of the – I think he was RB2 over the first half of the year just behind CMC.
Starting point is 00:28:29 The back half of the year didn't score as much. But you could kind of see some of that. We talked about his touchdown dependency in the first half of the year. So those are the opportunities, right? The situations where you are – ETN is not scoring 28 touchdowns this year. That's a very obvious thing that you can say so it's a judgment call but let's not rest on our laurels number nine you're so comfy number nine i call this make delicious boxes okay i mean it's like you know
Starting point is 00:29:00 all right okay your meal your meal prepping for your draft here. This is what you're doing. Okay. Okay. You're getting ready to go in with just, oh, man, I got this delicious treat, that delicious treat. And what I'm saying here is put some categories together in your mind of things that are important to you. Archetypes of players. Okay. And I'm going to give you examples.
Starting point is 00:29:22 I'm going to give you five of my delicious boxes this year. Okay. Player types, archetypes. I want one of these. And I look at who fits into that delicious box within the draft early, mid, late. Okay. So for instance, I got it. Mobile quarterbacks with upside. That's what I want to leave my draft with. I like those type of players. And so I'm going to look and I'm going to be prepared. I'm going to know, well, I can get Anthony Richardson in the fifth round. I can get Kyler in the sixth or seventh round. I can get Jaden Daniels
Starting point is 00:29:54 in the tenth round. So all three guys, those three are in your... They're in my delicious box of mobile quarterbacks with massive upside. So other boxes for me, there is a good friend jj zacharys into the show he he did a study a long time ago about you know nebulous uh wide receiver cores that that don't have one being drafted high a lot of times there's value to be
Starting point is 00:30:18 had there and so when i look at unknown wide receiver hierarchies like we're not exactly gonna build another box i'm to build another box here. I'm going to build another box, but I want them from good offenses. Okay, where you're not sure necessarily who's going to be the dude, but you know it's going to be a good offense. I got Tank Dell in the fifth. Unknown. No, I get it.
Starting point is 00:30:38 The hierarchy is unknown. He's the last drafted of the three. I mean, he's behind Nico and Stephon Diggs. I'm with Jayden on that. I already know the hierarchy, guys. I'm with you on that. Yeah. I already know the hierarchy guys. Oh, okay. You know, time machine. Yeah. Uh, Jaden Reed of the Packers Packers are going to be great. Is it going to be read? I don't know. He's in the six. I can get him a couple rounds later. He's like almost, he's a six 11. So almost seventh rounder or rushy rice.
Starting point is 00:30:59 I think the chief's offense is going to be great and you can get him a little later. Like I want to leave with one of those types quickly., touchdowns, super important for fantasy football. So look at touchdown, 10 touchdown potential tight ends. Laporta, he did it last year. Mark Andrews, a touchdown machine. Later in the draft, Jake Ferguson. At the running back, you got Derrick Henry. You know he's going to get double-digit touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:31:21 David Montgomery later in the sixth. Raheem Morris late in your draft. Yes, not the coach. Not the coach. Raheem Mostert late in the draft. I think he has a zero touchdown potential. I'd give him one. I think he could sneak in.
Starting point is 00:31:36 We are the only podcast that projects touchdowns for coaches. That is true. You can find that in the Ultimate Draft Kit. Or, you know, rookies usually prove to be good picks by the end of the year if they're quality players. So, you know, later in the draft, Malik Neighbors, Ladd McConkie, Keon Coleman. Oh, I'm so happy Coleman made one of your boxes.
Starting point is 00:31:58 Yeah. Yeah, I mean, there's potential, right? He could be the number one for Josh Allen. He could potentially explode and be terrible is this like the uh what like the dinner the pre-made dinner meals that have all the different sections in the box yes and you got that little tiny dessert first yeah you well you always eat the little tiny dessert first right isn't that what we all yeah yeah what we all eat first is a little tiny i mean when it was the brownie or the apple one oh the apple the apple like the little apple oh baby but yes so so what and you don't have to be these
Starting point is 00:32:30 players in these boxes but take a look at your draft and be like this is the type of player i want who qualifies through the draft and and so that you've got a game plan yeah makes sense number eight i want to talk about finding the late-round running backs that can turn into starters for your team. So every year, we have running backs who are not drafted in the top 24, but they finish in the top 24. I wanted to see is there a path or just some information that can help at least give you an edge at figuring out who are these targets that I need to go after.
Starting point is 00:33:06 So over the past five years, we see eight and a half teams without a top 24 running back drafted, which it makes sense because some teams have two guys slip into the top 24, and then there's the other eight. However, from those teams that don't have a top 24 running back drafted, we see an average of just over five running backs finish inside the top 24. Does that make sense? Just want to make sure everyone's following.
Starting point is 00:33:34 So, like, teams who are – guys who are not drafted to be in the top 24, we see five of them, on average, make it into the top 24. So, it's trying to identify or find some signals to identify players that could be the ones that move up. Exactly. And this is why it starts at team-level projections. How good do you think an offense is going to be? Last year, DeAndre Swift, who we mentioned he had a hot start.
Starting point is 00:33:57 It wasn't great at the end, but it's still a really hot start. Oh, he was a value for fantasy players. Swift, James Cook, Isaiah Pacheco. It's hard to remember, but last year those guys were the RB 28, 29, and 30 in ADP. Because it wasn't... You weren't rock solid of, is Pacheco
Starting point is 00:34:14 going to keep the job? James Cook? There's questions here. There's questions about the players. You know what there was not questions about? The team. The Philadelphia Eagles, the Buffalo Bills, and the Kansas City Chiefs. Those are great offenses. That would be a delicious box.
Starting point is 00:34:30 Exactly. You know what I'm saying? Sure. And I looked at it, and the thing in common of these guys who make the jump into the top 24, their offenses are finishing as top 14 scoring offenses. So it's identifying these guys, trying to project which offenses are going to be in the top half, and then look at the running backs who aren't being drafted like that. And right now, to me, there are three teams that I'm looking at that I know that they're
Starting point is 00:34:56 going to have a high-powered offense. I'm just not sure about who it's going to be at the running back position. The Cincinnati Bengals. We got Zach Moss. We got Chase Brown. Which one is it going to be at the running back position. The Cincinnati Bengals. We got Zach Moss. We got Chase Brown. Which one is it going to be? I don't know for sure, but they're both being drafted outside the top 24. The Dallas Cowboys.
Starting point is 00:35:12 I've been pushing for Rico Daudo. You guys are a little bit more on the Ezekiel Elliott name, the brand side of that, but I think we're all in agreement. The Cowboys are going to be a very high-powered offense. And then the Chargers, that one sounds a little bit more strange, but Harbaugh and Giroux, they put up high-powered offenses, and they do have a top-tier elite quarterback. So it's just those are three teams that I think are easy to look at.
Starting point is 00:35:41 Say them again, the three teams? The Bengals, the Cowboys, and the Chargers. They don't have a top- 24 running back in ADP, and yet I'll bet that a couple players from those teams are going to finish easily in the top 24. I'll bet that that is a good bet. So you second? All right.
Starting point is 00:36:01 All those in favor. Can you bet on bets? Do they let you bet on bets? They let you bet on anything. I will whisper it because I have just like, okay, what if he actually is okay? J.K. Dobbins, I have abandoned. I thought you said you were going to whisper it.
Starting point is 00:36:18 J.K. Dobbins. All right. I've had to abandon him because he's coming off the Achilles injury, but things that are progressing, at least the way they're talking about depth charts over in the Chargers, those are the two guys listed. I think they're even listed as co-starters. The Kamani Vidal Sassoon, the hope of this late-round guy.
Starting point is 00:36:38 As of right now, the people watching the team, he's projected to not make the team over Jarrett Patterson. Yeah, working in a salon soon. So I'm more and more open to the idea that Dobbins is a worthwhile pick. It's a good one. Number seven. All right. It's going to be a little bit of a follow-up of a discussion we started
Starting point is 00:36:58 yesterday on the tight end rankings. I'm going to title it, Reroll Your Tight End. But we'll get into what that means um we discuss a lot of the times the offseason those conversations are around end of season rankings and sometimes we're even surprised especially at tight end oh wow that guy was a top 10 guy at tight end top 10 really doesn't mean a lot just being inside the top 10 because right you're in a 10 to 12 man league and that means you've got one of the worst options if you're at the bottom of that group there was a year i loved uh who was it trey boo boo yeah trey burton trey burton oh unmitigated disaster unmitigated disaster he finishes the tight end six that year like
Starting point is 00:37:42 you can make it sound good but he was terrible so a lot of the discussion yesterday was like okay you know Jason in particular he loves those top five guys he wants to take the best of them in the in the um in the draft and maybe you know part of that's going to be waiting to grab the fourth or fifth guy and that also means you might not get the guy you want you might have somebody pull the trigger sooner and you're like wow I need to punt the tight end position I might miss my guy at tight end what i'm saying with this this whole like re-roll redraft your tight end is something that would have worked really well last year and that is sometime during the middle of the season once we get data on strength of schedule
Starting point is 00:38:19 and how teams defend the tight end position um Give yourself a chance to redo your tight end position. If you look at the top five tight ends last year by stats, like the end of year top five was Laporta, Ingram, Kelsey, Hawkinson, Kittle. That's how they finished. The top five tight ends over the back half, so from week nine on, it was Laporta and Ingram. Okay, cool. They're still there.
Starting point is 00:38:43 The next three were Najoku, McBride, and Ferguson over the second half of the season. You even had players like Isaiah Likely, had monster weeks. Schultz had huge weeks over the back half of the season. If you played Najoku over Kelsey from Week 9 on, you got four and a half more fantasy points per week playing Najoku over Travis Kelsey. So if you miss your shot on locking in that position, I'm saying make it a point in your brain to say midseason, I'm going to make my move for a tight end. Because what we're not saying in our tight end ranking show is,
Starting point is 00:39:16 you don't need one. That's not the message. Just because you missed the top five is, oh, well, I can settle without a tight end. You win leagues because of great tight end performances. The problem is you think you missed the boat. And I'm saying, let's reroll that. Go back to the drawing board.
Starting point is 00:39:31 You know, it's not another draft in the middle of the year, but through a trade, you can identify somebody, take another, another shot. And that is kind of a luxury you get when you don't draft the top five guy in the, in the regular draft is you get the luxury of now I get to pivot. You don't feel obligated. Like if you had Kelsey, you're playing him 100% of those weeks because you have to, even though Njoku was going to outperform him by five points. So it gives you some flexibility.
Starting point is 00:39:57 You can go back to the drawing board. You can re-roll the tight end. This is also a great tip for long-term dynasty players. You know, if you listen in the offseason, you know, I don't like drafting rookie tight ends in dynasty. They're much further down than the ADP on my, you know, my strategy. But I love trading for him later. You know, you couldn't trade for Kyle Pitts early. You could later when he didn't you know Trey McBride Trey
Starting point is 00:40:25 McBride was like you know you could have gotten him so cheap after his rookie year even a little bit into his sophomore year he was undrafted last year yeah and so it's like yeah trade for these guys I love that tip for for both redraft just being conscious of it mid-season to make a move for a league winning tight end i think is important number six i call this one stacks on stacks on stacks stacks on stacks yeah baby um it's this is a tip and a trick for the foot clan because we want the foot clan to win championships not just have a great season we want you to have a great season but We want you to have a great season, but we want you to win championships. And stacks are an advantage. A quarterback wide receiver stack, it's often thought of for DFS and best ball formats. But people don't think about that for redraft and dynasty enough.
Starting point is 00:41:16 It's becoming a little bit more common. It needs to be more common. Stacking increases your ceiling, and it also gives you something you desperately need. Correlation. Correlation is your best best friend and no one correlates better with your quarterback than the pass catcher on his own team uh we did a stick to stacking article what's that a stick to stacking article uh it looked back at data over the last 20 years looking at over 5,000 games played in the NFL and a stacked quarterback-wide receiver combo, 15.3% chance of booming, which is hitting 40 combined fantasy points. An unstacked quarterback-wide receiver combo, only 12%.
Starting point is 00:41:57 And that might sound like a small edge, but small edges matter. You know what they do? They stack up. Busted. That was a swish, Mike. You didn't call it. I didn't call it. I didn't call it.
Starting point is 00:42:13 I got it busted. I'm sorry. I don't want third place. I want to win a championship. Stacks help. The best scores often come from a stacked lineup. Just look at last year. The Cowboys stack of Dak and CeeDee Lamb last year
Starting point is 00:42:25 had a higher percentage of fantasy championships than any other combination, which I don't like because Andy had them. How'd it work out? Every championship, I've looked at this in our League of Record. Every championship I have with one, two,
Starting point is 00:42:41 three, all three championships. Yeah, you can stop counting there. I can. It was actually on the back of a stack yeah i mean it was i you go way back to peyton and demarius you you know last year dac and cd um i remember going back to peyton manning and dallas drake like the stack it's fun the correlation is so powerful you want to know why it works because when you get into this clark yeah okay i just i thought i thought there was a player i didn't remember you said that was drake i said dallas drake yeah that's um that's a former nhl player um dallas clark tied in for the colts uh shout out dallas clark yeah uh dallas drake Drake. Last year, when you get to the playoffs, you're playing the best teams, right?
Starting point is 00:43:27 It's like, oh, you've got to play the other team that puts up a bunch of points. That combo last year in the semifinals and finals scored 51.5 points and 63.9 points. That's why you won a championship, Andy. So my favorite stacks this year, there are a couple ways to do it. You can either get your quarterback first. I like double tapping Jalen Hurts, Devontae Smith. If you're at that 3-4 turn, boom, bam, baby. I just made my stack, and I don't have to guess if I get it later. I love both players. I also think Patrick Mahomes is slightly undervalued this year compared to, you know, last year at least,
Starting point is 00:44:00 and you can get Rushie Rice cheap. My backdoor stacks would be if I take T. Higgins, I like combining him with Joe Burrow, Jaden Reed and Jordan Love later in the draft. And then if you're lucky enough, I'm not targeting Tua or Dak personally in my leagues. But if I'm at the beginning of the draft, if I'm at the two or the three and I end up with Tyree Kill or CeeDee Lamb,
Starting point is 00:44:21 you're darn right that when I'm later in the draft, I am now targeting the the correlating dac or two yeah that's a nice uh separator for those guys in that middle tier is to know you have the powerhouse wide receiver yeah all right we'll take a quick break and come back with our top five all right we are going to jump in here um here we go number five all right i want to talk about quarterbacks and their adp and the history of that because the the quarterback position for fantasy football it has been there's been an evolution in the past 10 years. It's quite a timeline. Because when we first started the show, it was late round QB, which that's another shout out to JJ for opening my eyes to that,
Starting point is 00:45:15 of you could get a quarterback late. It was actually detrimental to your team to draft a quarterback early when you could just get a guy later, a guy that you know that runs and he's going to give me points, or I can stream against bad defenses and make up points. And over time, the fantasy football community, they're getting wise to this, especially wise to the fact that a quarterback that runs, it is a true cheat code. And now those guys are
Starting point is 00:45:45 moving up. Plus the NFL is changing and guys that run are now also airing it out. It's no longer Tim Tebow where it's, I need all the running because the passing won't be there. It's you get guys like Alan Hertz, where you're getting a combination. That's why the guys are the super stud. So I took a look back at the past four years because things have really been changing recently. And I wanted to look how safe has quarterback drafting actually been. It's still tough. It is still tough. The hit rate of a top 12 quarterback in ADP, it's at 48%. And when I say a hit rate, I mean a guy finishing within one spot of his ADP. So like your quarterback three, if he finishes the quarterback four, I mean a guy finishing within one spot of his ADP. So like your quarterback three,
Starting point is 00:46:30 if he finishes the quarterback four, I'm not going to hold that against him. That's fine. That's a fine pick. But if you're a couple spots, I counted that as a bust and you were hitting at 48%. So then I said, well, is there a better way to look at it where it's not just top 12? Broke them down into three tiers of ADP. QB 1 through 4, 5 through 8, 9 through 12. And the reason I did this is because the point, the expected point threshold, it's pretty close for those, and they kind of separate. Drafting a top four QB, hitting at 44%. Okay?
Starting point is 00:46:58 That's, for the margin of error, that's very good. Quarterback 5 through 8, that dropped down to 37 and a half percent that's that is not so great and then quarterback nine through 12 much much higher at 62 percent granted that's not what you want no that's not what you want and just the expected points for them is it's lower it's easier to hit a like if they hit their their adp it's not like a quarterback five hitting their ADP. And then I thought, well, let's look at this through the lens of ceiling, right? Just ceiling. And I want to see these buckets that I put together, QB one through four, five through eight,
Starting point is 00:47:36 nine through 12. How often are they finishing as a top four guy? The top four ADP quarterbacks, that jumps up to 56%. So it just, it kind of secures that, yeah, these quarterbacks that we've identified at the top, they've been coming through for us more often than they haven't. QB 5 through 8, that drops to 18%. But then here's where it gets weird. QB 9 through 12, finishing as a top four quarterback 25 percent so over the last four years not only has that range of quarterback given you a safer outcome a safer floor less likely to bust they're also giving you a slight edge of actually jumping into the top four one
Starting point is 00:48:20 and four yeah so it's like that's what these QBs 5 through 8 when we're talking about them, it's just this range of QB where it's nebulous. They're not in the past four years. They haven't hit as often as the later guys. So, again, these are slight edges that we're looking for. And it's the quarterbacks who are in that range, it's Dak, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, and Jaden Daniels. Like, this is a four-pack of QBs that align with this historical data of – Three pocket passers, one with the mobility.
Starting point is 00:48:54 Right. And it's just the point being, those are quarterbacks that I wanted to target. And this data is just backing that up even more of yeah of being willing to bypass those middle tier guys excluding i'll take kyler he's at qb8 but it's just you know a slight edge to consider historically isn't that nice man when you have you've got your ideas yeah you're you know your priors and you just get to confirm them that's nice yeah it's pretty much what life's all about. Number four. All right, we'll call this Build a Dynamic Duo. And so our ultimate draft kit, we highlight the risk rating for a player, and we talk about upside ratings for a player.
Starting point is 00:49:35 And we also talk about the benefits historically of having volatility on your roster, the ability to have a player go out and win you a week. But I think what's fundamental to that, and when I say build a dynamic duo, is that you need to make sure that you're maintaining a floor on your roster points-wise so that those volatile big performances mean something, that they're not undermined by an inverse, the bottom dropping out. Or canceling each other out. Yeah, canceling each other out.
Starting point is 00:50:04 So you can use the ultimate draft kit to do this, and I wanted to highlight some of the kind of combinations that might make sense when placed together on a roster, roster construction-wise at different positions. So in the first half of the draft, you've got players that we would consider and rank in the UDK as safer low-risk wide receivers. Devontae Smith has a risk rating of 3. That's very low.
Starting point is 00:50:28 Michael Pittman at 3.7. Christian Kirk at 3. If you correlate those risk ratings to how you think about those players, it makes perfect sense, right? They are on the field all the time. They have a good history. They're kind of possession go-to guys for their quarterbacks. Their floor is pretty high. But there are some other wide receivers that are great combos for those names that have more risk associated with them and more upside. Debo Samuel, he's an eight and a half upside in the UDK. He comes with a six risk due to some volatility and injury. So that's a nice player. Maybe if
Starting point is 00:51:03 you have a Debo Samuel on your roster, Christian Kirk makes sense later in the draft. Tank Dell, he's a 7.7 upside. We love Tank Dell. He does contain some risk due to the fact that it's a nebulous situation. Stephon Diggs, how done is he? We know Nico Collins got the bag.
Starting point is 00:51:21 Also, Tank Dell got hurt last year, and that's something you pay attention to. He's a great player to combine with a Michael Pittman. So you have volatility and upside, but you've got the floor. And then another one would be Devontae Adams. We know Devontae Adams at his best with good quarterback play. Like, if that happens, that is one of the best wide receivers in football. But he's got a 6.3 risk.
Starting point is 00:51:43 He's older, which means that there's a risk due to age, and he's got currently unproven quarterback play or at best kind of like low-end starter play with Gardner Minshew. So Adams is a player that we saw last year. He could win you the championship on one week. He can score one point and get shut down by, I think it was, was it LeJarius Need? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:05 So building a dynamic duo, setting that floor up so that your high end players can have success, I think is really important. Same thing goes with the running back position. You can go through the UDK. You can look at the risk ratings in the upside and try to find that balance. And a lot of the times you're not going to go into a draft saying, I'm going to ping pong between these but as the draft is starting to form look at those risk ratings
Starting point is 00:52:30 at that point i've got this guy on my team the the ballers have them at this risk rating with not a lot of upside i'm going to target a higher volatility player later and build that dynamic duo number three this one's important, guys. Oh, no. See, I like this show in particular because I did not look at anything either of you had prepared. And it's real highbrow stuff. Yeah, it's intellectual. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:56 Probabilistically, you're going to really lean on it. It's pretty much trained medical advice. Yeah. And this tip is take dumps now, not later. I mean, you could translate this to life. It's just sound life advice. It's applicable to everyone out there. Constipation is the leading cause of death in America.
Starting point is 00:53:17 That's true. You come for fantasy football advice, but you're going to stay for health tips from trained medical experts like myself. Is the Falcon still in the studio? He is amazingly. It does appear. but you're going to stay for health tips from trained medical experts like myself. Is the Falcon still in the studio? He is amazingly. It does appear. He took dumps now.
Starting point is 00:53:30 Yeah. Not later. We had to change his seat because he takes the mid-show, and he takes this advice very seriously. But here's what take dumps now, not later means. I'm talking about your fab dumps. I'm talking about the difference between holding on to your cold, hard, fake cash. Also, if you're not playing in a fab league.
Starting point is 00:53:52 Yeah, make familiarize. There's a free agent acquisition budget. You get $100 fake dollars or whatever budget your league decides, and everyone has that. And every week, you're going to bid a certain amount on players. This also obviously would apply to a waiver priority system. If you've got a high order early in the season and you got lucky with that, then yeah, you want to spend that capital early, not later. We talk about it. We build a foundation at the draft to set you up for success but you don't win your championship at the draft that was that used to be a tip we
Starting point is 00:54:31 said all the time because people would care so much about the draft and then they would fall away and maybe not make the roster moves and the in the waiver wire pickups that they needed to in season and then they're like i'm always good but i never win the championship this is how you're going to win a championship you're going to spend your dumps early, okay? You're going to take them dumps, and you're going to take them early. We've also got, you know, look, a little peel back the curtain. We have a new waiver wire tool coming out. It is not talked about.
Starting point is 00:55:01 I'm not going to tell you about the ultimate dashboard. I'm not going to do it. No, you would not know about that unless you had been to jointhefoot.com. Right. But if you stay tuned, we've got something really cool that's going to help you take advantage of this.
Starting point is 00:55:16 Here's an example. So we had this massive article done by one of our former great writers, Matt DeSorbo. He was formerly great. Now he's not great. Well, he's no longer with us, so he's not great anymore. If you leave the footballers, yeah, he's still great. You're formerly great.
Starting point is 00:55:31 You're formerly great. You're still great. He's pretty great. If you want, come back. But he did all the data, and the truth is week one breakouts have a higher fantasy point per game average. This isn't just, oh, you get them more weeks which is also true but they actually average more fantasy points and he wrote that back in 2021 we went and did the research can i jump in really quick i just want
Starting point is 00:55:55 to reiterate what you said because i i don't want it to get lost in in this dump sure which is this advice is if you spin the fab early on players early in the season, a lot of the times we have come out and said, one of the advantages is you get them for more games during the year. But you're saying... I'm saying they're better players. They literally score more fantasy points regardless of the amount of weeks you have them. That's right. That's exactly right.
Starting point is 00:56:18 This article was old, so we went back and looked at, was it still true? Is it still true last year? Take a look at the week one and week two pickups from last year. Kyron Williams was 6% rostered on sleeper in week one. Puka Nakua, 10% rostered in week one. Nico Collins, Sam Laporta, Rushie Rice. Those were the pickups in week one. Week two, you still had Kyron Williams somehow out there in 63% of leagues.
Starting point is 00:56:44 Devon Achan. Nico was still available. Tank Dell. Jaden Reed. I mean, these are players that helped win championships. Kurt Ferguson. Now let's take a look at some fab dumps later on, you know, the best available fab dumps later. I feel like I'm about to be attacked.
Starting point is 00:57:01 You're not? You're not? Because it's not on the list? It's not, but you got demarcatoed. I'm already demarcatoed. I mean, you dumped a bunch of fab later. Oh, the fab dumpster. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:57:09 And so, you know, week eight. You owe me internet money. Week eight, you're spending your fab dumps on Craig Reynolds and Roshan Johnson and Jordan Mason. Week nine, you got Zach Charbonnet and Daryl Henderson, Jahan Dotson, Pop Douglas. Like, hey, he was okay. But these are not league-winning guys. So when you start the season, and this is also kind of a little tip B,
Starting point is 00:57:40 is at the end of your draft, grab guys. Dump plus. Dump plus. Dump plus. You can grab players who you know you're fine to cut after week one. Like, you're going to see and you're going to know they hit that expectation or they didn't. Like a Keon Coleman, right? Like, you know, that might be someone where you go, oh, he's not the starter, you know, and you're okay with it or whoever it is, but you want to make those transactions and
Starting point is 00:58:11 go hard in the paint. And we'll bring this back up when it's week one and week two and tell you, don't hold onto your FAP. Yeah. I anecdotally, I know that this has been very beneficial in the past. And I've always targeted it because I know I have more weeks of that player and more guarantees, more players to trade. You have them early. You've got more assets to trade. It's good advice. All right.
Starting point is 00:58:34 Number two. I want to talk about – Nope, you've got to name it. The importance of offense is what I want to title this, which it does – it piggybacks a little bit what I was talking about finding the late round running backs that could sneak into the top 24 this is more about maybe there are players that are early in ADP that I should avoid because there is a big red flag on their offense that maybe I'm just I'm pushing it to the side and maybe I need to let it wave in the wind
Starting point is 00:59:07 and really alert me to what is going on. It's hard to be a good fantasy player on a bad offense. That seems like a common sense thing. But when I dove into it, to me, it's way worse than you really think if you're on a bad offense right last year nine wide receivers were taught or were drafted as top 36 wide receivers their teams finished as a bottom 10 offense so the year went bad for that team of those nine players only two of them met or exceeded their adp In 2022, 12 wide receivers were drafted as top 36 guys who
Starting point is 00:59:48 unfortunately they ended up on bad offenses. Three of the 12 met or exceeded their ADP value. Over the past four years, only 24% of the guys who end up on bad teams become a draft day value. Go to the running back position. Last year, nine running backs drafted as top 24 running backs end up on bottom 10 scoring offenses. Two of those nine met their ADP. In 2022, it was two of eight. It's the exact same percentage of guys who are on bad offenses
Starting point is 01:00:23 that fail you for their draft day ADP, 24%. And it needs to be built into your process of looking at an offense, top-down approach, not just the player. Look at the top-down approach. And, yes, there's ways to overcome it. You can volume your way there. Look at Brees Hall or Derrick Henry. They were on bad offenses, but their volume was so high that they were able to overdo it. But fantasy football, we're looking at probability.
Starting point is 01:00:50 We're trying to find a slight edge that might tip me off on, is this player doomed to be a draft day bust and not return the value that I am selecting them in the draft. Now, look, identifying the bottom 10 offenses, that can be very difficult. I get that. But there are definitely teams out there where you know that it would be an absolute shock for them to become or to jump out of the bottom 10, like the Patriots, the Broncos, the Raiders, the Steelers. I feel pretty confident that at the end of the year, these will be. Did you say the Giants? The Giants are in my list as well. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 01:01:35 I'm not trying to say I know what the bottom 10 will be. I'm going to identify all bottom. It's just the bottom 10. No, I know a few teams that are probably going to end up there, and if their players are being drafted high maybe I maybe I want to look elsewhere Devontae Adams yeah I uh yeah I hear you it is like I said Devontae Devontae Adams can volume his way out but he was one of those disappointments he was ADP wide receiver eight he already was a disappointment last year yeah he finished as 11 so you you're like, okay, but that's not what you drafted.
Starting point is 01:02:08 I think like 12, 13 years ago when I was playing fantasy, without all the data, without the fundamental knowledge that you're spreading, I came to a draft one year and I was like, I'm going to draft players on good teams like I went into it that was my that was my entire draft strategy as a new player was one year I just said I'm taking players on good teams and it was just this overarching thought that like one I mean you don't want to be kind of just praying all the stars align every week right you you get out there and you're like oh my, my gosh, Aiden O'Connell.
Starting point is 01:02:45 Just make a couple passes. Just make a couple. Just get it going. You know, having to make that bet over and over and over again, it's very, very hard. All right. We got one more tip for you because otherwise it would just be nine. So here you go.
Starting point is 01:03:00 Number one. All right. We're all going to do this together. This is going to be kind of like a group exercise. We're going to say the title at the same time? No, no, no, no, no. I'm just saying that the listenership needs to, you know, I'm going to explain what this is, and I want us to practice this together.
Starting point is 01:03:17 Okay. We're going to call the number one tip and trick this year. Start fresh. Start fresh. Yeah, you did. Are we going to unburden ourselves here? I'm going to play you some music, and we're going to let go of the pain from last year, and we're going to let go of the burns, and we're going to let go of the baggage.
Starting point is 01:03:36 Mike, DeAndre Swift, histories. We're going to not let it hold us back for making the wrong choices because they hurt us last year. So I'm going to play just some smooth jazz, and we'll just take a moment. Okay. And we'll just. We're going to reflect. We're just going to let it go.
Starting point is 01:03:52 All right. Ooh. Mmm. Wait. Yeah, let the lights come down low. Let it go. Let it go. Who hurt you in fantasy last year?'t matter let it go you are healed you are free of that bird that did that work mike
Starting point is 01:04:14 is it starting to it is i i didn't know this song went this long i have been talking to Kyle. A therapist. Yes, yeah. But Kyle the Borgogan about this type of a thing, and it's like players that you should forgive them, let it go. It's not easy. It is not. I mean, there's a big one for me.
Starting point is 01:04:40 Okay, are we? Let's work through it. It's T. Higgins. Nice. I think I got it. Oh, are we? Let's work through it. It's T. Higgins. Nice. I think I gotta... Oh, there's the lights again. He's not gonna hurt you. I gotta forgive him. I think
Starting point is 01:04:54 that using the last unfortunate injuries of the past couple years against him... You're ready to move forward? Yeah. I've worked through the pain of the offseason and I'm ready to be hurt again. There's only one
Starting point is 01:05:09 person in every league that should not start fresh. That should hold on to the past and that should make the rest of their league mates eat it. And that is the champion of every league. Forget nothing. Live in the past. Forget nothing. Rub it in all year
Starting point is 01:05:27 By the way Mike Are you a champion? I sure am Congratulations on that champ I am also a champion Gonna hold on to the past baby I hate you guys Yeah well that makes sense
Starting point is 01:05:40 Do you want us to start a third league that you can win? First time in 10 years I didn't win a point. Every time. So you eat it. Every time. All right. We have two more shows this week. One's the mock draft.
Starting point is 01:05:51 One's the My Guys episode. Don't miss it. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.

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