Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - AFC East Breakdown + Hard Knocks Fantasy Heroes - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/13

Episode Date: July 13, 2023

2023 fantasy preview for the Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets on today’s fantasy football podcast! What impact will Aaron Rodgers have on the Jets offense? Plus, a new edition of Best Ball Breakdown! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for July 13th, 2023. Dive into the 2023 Ultimate Draft Kit + Draft Analyzer! UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on Twitter Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Check out today's sponsors: Best Ball Breakdown presented by Underdog Fantasy. Visit https://underdogfantasy.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,

including a new chance to win cash every minute in the app. Get into the game with Monopoly Double Play at McDonald's. While supplies last, one in five chances to win game piece prizes at outset, chances to win Double Play prizes based on time of code entry, and draw prizes based on number of entries in each draw. See rules in the app. Get a credit card annual fee waiver and earn C-plus points faster with the Scotiabank Ultimate Package and bank more entertainment. Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages. Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

Welcome in. Thursday, July 13th, the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Mike, the Fantasy Hitman Wright is here. Jason Moore. I'm Andy Holloway. Big show today. Excited to be with you, Mike. How are you doing? I'm doing fantastic.

Yeah. We are on to the AFC East, which is a very, very fun division. It's a ferocious division. Yes. We found out that Hard Knocks will be heading to the AFC East. They will. This morning. Bring your ayahuasca.

Bring your ayahuasca. B-Y-O-A. B-Y-O-A, yeah. Took me a second. Jason, how are you doing? I'm doing very well. I just got out of a dark room. What were you doing in a dark room?

Oh, just like Aaron Rodgers. You got the ayahuasca. You got the, you got the complete. Now, are you just talking about your bedroom from last night? Yeah. Like, but like blackout curtains, man. It's crazy. Uh, we're all in the black shirts today.

That's right. I did notice that. Well, that's the best to absorb the Arizona sun. Yes. That's really smart. Sometimes you got to challenge. You gotta, you, you gotta look at the sun and say, I'm tougher than you. We used to play.

Star. We used to play. I'm tougher than you, star. We used to play a lot of pickleball outdoors. Now we are fortunate enough that we play indoors during the summer. Yeah, we're soft now. We're soft. I said this the other day to somebody.

They were playing outside, and I'm like, you're a maniac. And then I was like, I realized I had just become soft and pale because we were getting tans along with the melanoma. But we used to play a lot of pickleball outdoors. And like wearing a black pickleball shirt, very bad decision. And yet Al Borland and Jason would not play pickleball out there with a light color on. Very committed.

I'm not into having a wet t-shirt contest out there, boys. That black shirt's necessary. But you guys maybe almost died a few times. Yeah, but so what, you know? Every man dies. Not every man truly lives. Very slimming. But welcome in, everybody.

AFC East breakdown on the show today. We have a best ball breakdown as well. Some decent NFL news to talk about, which we had been kind of pining for that for a while. We hadn't had any big stories. We've got stuff to discuss and break down and look at the implications. The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now at ultimatedraftkit.com.

If you're new, this is the secret weapon for your draft. So you can learn about everything that's a part of it. We've been building on it for years. So if you think back to the early days of the Ultimate Draft Kit, it's probably three, four times as robust and useful and iterated on and improved upon. And so that's something you can avail yourself of at ultimatedraftkit.com.

We have a new Dynasty podcast episode, Dynasty Wide Receivers, that released yesterday. You can search for the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty podcast. How'd that go, Jay? It was very, very very good we got into kind of the second tier wide receivers who we love who we hate some veterans i think we had a really great discussion on what to do with kind of veteran wide receivers very valuable i only overheard one part of the recording Mike and it was Jason disparaging Joshua Dobbs again are you downs sorry what did I say Josh Dobbs oh yeah that that's why you both are very confused trying to think of who that human is nope nope, nope. But yes, Josh Downs. Dobbs was on Steelers, right?

Am I remembering that? The quarterback was, yes. Yes. I was speaking of the wide receiver, the rookie. I've messed this up. I recognize this. Yeah, I did slander Josh Downs. It's been a while since I had an opportunity.

And really, it's a shame. We still haven't seen him play. I don't get much opportunity to slander him anymore since he uh did not get drafted highly correct so you have your first stage one victory lap right the nfl i'm on lap two right now are you yeah oh yeah how many laps can you make it through four that's that's when i quit okay um what else is going on do i have anything else here we do not need to talk about joshua dobbs for what it's worth yeah oh wait he started the the couple games for the titans he did he played for the

stealers for a while and then last year had a chance yeah after malik willis got his chance yes and it's all coming back it was evident that off the street josh dobbs was the better option for them hey that's tough uh Brooksy, anything else we got going on over there in Deucer's Alley? It's all filled up over there. No more Jay Grizz. Happy to have my guys back. Nothing else going on. Rap Scallion in the building as

well. Okay, let's get it going. News and notes from around the league. The big news that we've been waiting for, Saints, well, part of it. Saints running back Alvin Kamara pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor charge connected to his alleged participation in a fight that occurred in Las Vegas in 2022. So we've heard tale of this incident for a long time now.

He is going to do community service. It was reduced. It's not a felony. It's a misdemeanor. And he's going to pay $100,000 to the victim for medical bills. This sets the stage for any potential NFL consequences, which we don't know if they're going to take place or not. I mean, I think we all have different guesses, but we've never seen this exact situation before. Yeah, this is a new

crime that the NFL will deal with. But the NFL has come out and said now that this has been resolved, they will look into this and investigate. My expectation right now when I'm just statting players out and thinking about what I believe will happen because at this point in time that's what you got to do you got to make that guess if you're drafting on underdog or doing stuff you got to make your educated uh decisions and I believe it'll be a two game suspension yeah I'm at one to two I think it'll be one to two Mike I think was saying he leans more the higher side I think it could be I think it could be up to four it too wouldn't surprise me but there's they're they're like the video is there's a video out the video it's very difficult

to tell what's going on in it but we know that the nfl does not like when you make the news for bad PR, Roger Goodell and company often come down on it now. So I'm confident he will get a suspension. But anywhere from two or more games, that's TBD. Okay. Yeah. I think we'll find out soon. Colts owner Jim Erste said said Jonathan Taylor is quote healed up they had a training camp he had a

arthroscopic debridement which is one of the things I try to avoid to clean up the ankle so I you know that's a debridement that's like clean you know getting rid of little bone fragments and stuff like that wouldn't that be right that

doesn't I don't know I'm looking at Al Alex like a guy knows what debridement is I did have my sinuses i had that procedure yes is that how you would refer to it i think it's called a debridement oh yeah i could be debridement is when you get divorced yes oh yeah you're you're debriding you're debriding yeah uh here all night it is um kind of a storyline in the sense that you've got to remember that he's still recovering. I know he said he's all healed up ahead of training camp,

but he wasn't a part of any of the other camps, the OTAs, all that. He wasn't ready yet. So it's something to monitor. I mean, hopefully just it's a nothing. You know, training camp starts, he's a full go, but maybe, maybe not. Some news on Isaiah Pacheco. See if those fancy feet can get going. He may not be clear for the start of training camp.

Played through a fracture in his thumb and a torn labrum in his shoulder. Underwent surgery. You know, it doesn't really concern me at all because it's not his legs. I mean, a shoulder, that's not the greatest for a running back who has to hit people with his shoulder. I'm not that concerned. Let me put it that way.

I don't want to say you shouldn't pay attention to it. I'm just saying the broken bone in the thumb. Look, he played through these injuries. So in that respect, I'm just happy it's upper body for this running back. I still know I got a little bit of grief. This was

a month, two months ago when I brought up Clyde Edwards Allaire's name as one of my favorite last round picks in underdog. I will never give grief for that, Jason. I must hold on to any shred of hope oh I'm happy I can give you grief now yeah you don't have to just have it then uh it's not changing but you know this is one of those things where if he's not there for the start of training camp Clyde Edwards Allaire is not going away he's not going to be uninvolved and uh it's a good offense so jerek mckinnon

yeah i mean mckinnon will be involved as well it's a it's a three back rotation until it's a two back rotation when one of them gets injured uh and then monday at 4 p.m eastern deadline for franchise tag players to sign a long-term deal our latest report from espn saying saquon and the giants are at a stalemate the deadline deadline's Monday for a long-term deal. The situation is basically if they don't reach that deal, it's going to force Saquon to make a decision about holding out. Yeah, and it will be a scary journey because both Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley

most likely will not have a deal done, and so their only option is to sit out or sign their franchise tag, and they will probably sign their franchise tag as late as humanly possible, miss all of training camp, and it will be very tough to draft those players when you still have a fear of them holding out. What are they holding out for at that point? To not practice.

No, no, no. I understand that. But like I'm talking about anything that would actually impact our, I mean, both those guys are the, they don't have to play it down. They don't even have to smell the grass on the training field. They will start week one. Oh yeah. Both of them.

So my point is, is like, what does holding out do for them if they're going to play week one other than just missing some practice like that's what it is okay i mean most people hold out because they want a contract most people hold out because they want to accomplish something if the team cannot give them anything that's my point well the fear of the fear of the hold out at that point is not missing training camp it's that they will sit out the season a la levy on bell and but they're going to sacrifice all the franchise tag money that entire year yeah i mean that's what love bell did and and that was really dumb it was super dumb and and he got a big

contract afterwards from the jets and if you really did the math he just lost money on even including the big contract my point is that is it is it really one of those things that's all or nothing for this season? Because if you can't do anything to his contract, why would he come back in game two? Why would he come back in game four? Why would he come back in game six? No, it's all or nothing, 100%.

And what it is going to be is no training camp and then sign. So in that regard, are you 0% worried about it as a draft pick for both those players? Until it's signed, I'll have that 1% worry that he misses the whole season. Anything to add, Mike? I think we have data. I don't have anything in front of me. Kyle, maybe you have something behind the scenes.

But just when a player kind of skips the conditioning, that acclimation period of training camp, I think their injury rate is a bit higher. So they're already a risky position for injury and draft costs, and if they're not in football shape come week one, I don't know. I think your antenna needs to be up. We all want it buttoned up. That would be nice to just know what you're getting.

Higher draft capital picks like that. You don't want anything. You know, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, and once we find this out, the question marks in the air do not make you feel good about it, which is why some of their average draft positions are lower. All right, let's get into it. Let's get divisional. All right, let's have some fun. We're talking AFC East, going through the changes from 2022 to 23,

how the offenses may function, kind of our takes on win totals. We'll do what we've done on all of these divisional breakdowns. We'll give you our predictions for first, second, third, and fourth in the division. Last year, Buffalo 13-3. So good. Miami was 9-8. The Patriots were 8-9.

And the New York Jets were 7-10. So this was a pretty good division last year but the Bills owned it number two in points per game number two defense and points allowed um you know they are one of those you know sometimes you get concerned about teams when their defense is too good uh but Josh Allen, Stephon Diggs, that wasn't the case. They won almost all their games. They had a huge point differential, and yet those two players were still highly producing fantasy commodities. Yeah, I mean, you look at the Eagles last year as well.

They had a great defense, and sometimes it capped. You'd be at halftime and you'd think oh I'm gonna score a kajillion fantasy points and they don't get that great second half but you just want teams that are dominating if they're up that means they score touchdowns that means fantasy points came and the Bills were unbelievable last year they were 10 points away under 10 points away from having an undefeated season you know they had three losses all three by three or fewer points and they just kicked butt and it's funny because their win totals come down I'm sure some of that has to do with Aaron Rodgers showing up in the division Miami being healthy exactly Tua being

there um and there is a weird air of pessimism around the Bills at least I've seen in media where it's like they feel like the window is starting to shut I don't see that I don't you know obviously Diggs is getting older if we're talking dynasty leagues maybe you start getting worried start getting out of that but their offense should just be full steam ahead this year I don't see what any reason why it should take a step back yeah I mean the win total, it goes from 11.5 going into last year to 10.5 this year, like you said. The offseason hijinks, or whatever you want to call it, from Stephon Diggs didn't help

that, I guess, feeling about the season. They also had a very, very disappointing exit in the playoffs. Last year was supposed to be their year. And it just didn't transpire that way. But yeah, the core pieces, Josh Allen, he's going to be great. Stefan Diggs is going to be great. Opportunities, they're there for Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook. So we'll talk about some of those guys, Sean McDermott,

going into year seven somehow. Wow. That's man. What? And last three years, 13 wins, 11 wins, 13 wins.

And so, you know, last year coming into the season, there was the change at offensive coordinator. Didn't matter. Right. Ken Dorsey goes into year two now, and they've added Damian Harris at running back Latavius Murray at running back to fill out that room. They've added Deontay Hardy and Trent Shurfield, a wide receiver.

And they lost Jamison Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie, and Cole Beasley as well, right? I mean, Cole Beasley is gone. Yes. Yeah, they basically lost some slot players, added some slot players, and then Don Kincaid is the real difference in the offense a first round a first round tight end yeah he's he's an excellent pass catching tight end great ball skills great athleticism he wasn't able to participate in the combine but

the hype on Dalton Kincaid is gigantic if you watch the draft videos of this room, they traded up to get him. They hopped over the Cowboys. They wanted him bad, and they felt like he could really help this offense. They keep calling him the tight end. Is that funny to you guys at all? When we're watching a lot of these draft videos, they're not even calling these kids by their name. They're just like, ah, we're hoping that the tight end falls.

What are we doing here? You think I'm in the draft video? Yeah. Not saying the tight end falls. You know, what are we doing here? But is that – You're talking about in the draft video? Yeah. Not saying the tight end falls to him? Yeah. I don't know. Well, you could argue that that's extra hype on Dalton Kincaid

because they're just saying the tight end, and they all knew who they were talking about. They weren't talking about Michael Meyer. They were talking about Dalton Kincaid, the tight end. It's worth saying, and I don't know if we've talked about it enough because there's been all the traditional hype around Dalton Kincaid. the tight end. It's worth saying, and I don't know if we've talked about it enough because there's been all the traditional hype around Dalton Kincaid. He goes to a great offense. We just talked about the points per game.

And then you look at his fantasy potential, which for some, that excitement's overblown. Historical numbers tell us that rookie tight ends, it's hard to make an impact. I get all that. But have we talked too little about the impact he might have on Josh Allen? Because a weapon like that doesn't have to be fantasy gold himself to turn Josh Allen into even a more consistent producer at that position,

more of a guarantee if you go in the second round on Josh Allen. Yeah, you get around the goal line, or I would say more the red zone and all of a sudden you have another legitimate option to throw a touchdown to that stresses the defense and that will add more passing touchdowns to Josh Allen he's my quarterback one right now as far as how the stats lie I think he's got the highest potential I I just love Jalen Hurts so much. I find myself drafting him over him, but my stats have Josh Allen as the number one. And I want to bring up Gabe Davis real quick because to me, I believe he is the quintessential post-type sleeper. The burns were real, super disappointing season. He was drafted and touted.

He was a my guy for me last year, and it was a failure. He was too inconsistent, had a couple big weeks, but for the most part was a failure. But I think he was a failure predominantly because of the expectations and the hopes. Yeah, finished as the wide receiver 27. Yeah, he missed two games, had a high ankle sprain in week two, played through it, and as the wide receiver 27 yeah he missed two games had a high ankle sprain in week two played through it and was the wide receiver 27 so he's not worthless and he only caught 52 of his josh allen targets that's a number that i i feel like should go north

of that and so he is unwanted in drafts i believe he's going to be a really good value this year because there's not a lot of if if you just look at the situation, you say, okay, the wide receiver two for one of, if not the best offense in the league who's going to get 100 targets, that's just a great opportunity. Now, if you think Gabe Davis just flat out sucks and can't get the job done, then pass on him. That's the hard part is because the number like if if he catches 50 what'd you say 52 of the passes right like that could very well be on him i mean stefan digs cut 71 i don't

think josh allen was throwing you know knuckleballs to to gabe davis maybe higher you know lower probability catches but we don't know what the team's trust is is this going to be um an offense where they made that decision and then they said look it this going to be an offense where they made that decision and then they said, look, it's going to be a lot of James Cook in the passing game. It's going to be Dalton Kincaid and 12 personnel with Dawson Knox. That's where the gamble is. And it is a gamble on Gabe Davis, but he should be on the field a ton. And then at that point, it's about confidence for your quarterback.

You're in a great offense. I do think there's opportunity there if you're being drafted in the ninth round. There's opportunity. Just be willing to cut bait if it's the same old Gabe Davis. But the two guys I wanted to highlight, because that's the question for Gabe Davis. Is Gabe Davis good? And I don't know that we have the answer yet. And, like, Khalil Shakir, he's an interesting slot wide receiver.

And Deontay Hardy, this dude, he is a burner. Hardy won't be really – he'll be interesting every once in a while for a DFS play. But when you were talking about Dalton Kincaid improving things for Josh Allen, there's going to be three to five times that that Hardy hits with a with a with like a party yeah it's gonna be a Hardy party when he's hitting like a 40 plus yard touchdown and that'll be his only catch of the day yeah he's a lot like Jalen Guyton in Los Angeles but he's just he he will certainly help the the offense and I think that

it will be interesting to watch camp for these wide receiver reports of is the team back in support of Gabe Davis or do you start hearing more hype train stuff about these other two wide receivers if that's what we're hearing then then Gabe Davis is probably just not as good as we hope he is. Let's, uh, before we move on, let's talk about the running back position. James cook right now being drafted in the eighth round of fantasy drafts.

He averaged 2.69 yards before contact. That was number three among all running backs, but he only got 12 touches or more one time last year. So there's an argument to be made. We just didn't get to see James Cook unleashed in any capacity because of that. To me, there's an opportunity there, right? Like if they were to give him more work, we've moved on from Devin Singletary, plays on a great team. Seems like there's an opportunity. At the same time, Damian Harris was added and Latavius Murray.

And I mentioned both because Murray just kind of gets it done and endears coaches to him, it seems. And so he ends up getting a little bit more work than we're comfortable with. Maybe he hurts Damian Harris a little bit more as a potential sleeper. But what do you expect out of this room that has generally been infrequently relied upon for fantasy football? I don't think there's enough fantasy points to go around for the running backs, generally speaking.

And, I mean, it would be surprising to me if James Cook were unleashed. If we're talking about just volume. He's not a big guy, you know, maybe around the 190-pound mark or so. Damian Harris is a good running back. If anyone's going to be the guy there at the goal line, I mean, it's Josh Allen, but I'm saying if it's going to be a running back, it'll be Damian Harris. It's just how much passing work does James Cook get? I don't think either of them is really desirable as a later round running back. But there is ambiguity, and in ambiguity at a running back position, that's sometimes where gold comes from.

For me, I'm putting my chips on the Damian Harris side of things just in case we see a 7-plus rushing touchdown season. When he had 13 opportunities two times in 20 opportunities, those were his three highest games. Fantasy finishes for Cook in those were 25, 15, and 10 in those games, averaging 7.8 a carry, 4.6 a carry, and 9 a carry. So we'll see how often they're willing to get him involved. If you watch the games, what I loved about James Cook is that he has the –

I don't even know how to describe it. I don't know if somebody has an idea for it, but certain certain running backs they know where to go after the ball is snapped they find empty space there's good vision the turnaround zone whatever you want to call that james cook was dominant in that and that's one of the reasons they drafted him now they didn't get to use him that way very often because i think he started his career with a fumble on his first touch and they had other weapons involved but just just keep an eye on that situation. I think – where's he going right now? Eighth round?

I think he's a fine – That's probably a fair price. I think it's a fair price and a fine shot to take. If I was to make my bet, I'm going to make it on the James Cook side. I realize he has lower odds of being the goal line guy, but I don't think – if there's gold to be mined in these hills, it's not going to come from just a goal line opportunity. It's going to come from being an explosive athlete in a great offense who has enough opportunity to break off big run after big run, chunk plays.

And James Cook has that. He showed that last year. And if you look at how he started the season, 5% snaps, 26% snaps, 12, 3, 18, 14. Like, he wasn't really involved. Later in the season, he started getting up more around the 40% and had a couple big games. I think we're hoping here that he could be a 55%, 60% snap player. And if that happens, oh, yeah.

Yeah, I don't know. You threw the 60 in there, and you could have left it. Well, I wasn't thinking about the drops but I do think uh I would I would place my chips on the James Dalvin Cook side he's uh 4-4-2 yes 4-4-2 so he's pretty fast dude all right quick break back with the Dolphins whether in the game or in life the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially,

giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. All right, let's talk about Miami. Last year, the projected win total was nine. They won nine games.

This year is nine and a half. They were six and five and one score games. Which they can't do. Thank you, Mike. Thank you. Just here for the mathematical equations. Yeah, I mean, that's true. They will not win nine and a half games this year.

Thank you. Impossible. They were eight and three, though, when two has started and finished the game. Important to throw that in there the and finished part uh one and six in the other game so i mean this was a very good football team to be six and five and one score games where there may be some opportunities there to lose your quarterback the amount of times that they did um i don't think any of us are they were good

offense yeah they were a good offense yeah and they've upgraded their defense yes they have uh so i mean this this team i believe is really really really good if they have tua and tua is very scary because if week one comes around and he gets you know i know he's put on a lot of weight he's been hitting the weight room and and hopefully that will kind of just help with what kind of vicious hits he can take but it is the one thing every time I'm drafting a dolphin that I'm scared about because if he goes down to a concussion you just don't know is that the last time we'll see Tua ever again and you know I don't we don't know whether that would happen or not but that's just the worry. Yeah, and I choose, and everybody can make their own decision,

I choose to evaluate and draft based on Tua being healthy and being a part of this offense. Because I think the upside is so tremendous that to do otherwise would just be kind of like foolhardy, and you miss out on so many explosive opportunities. You know, Tua himself, when active, led the NFL in yards per attempt, was an effective fantasy player. You know, had the sixth touchdown week,

showing you the potential of this offense. You have a really smart mind on that side of the ball. Eleventh in points per game game sixth and total yards despite missing those games and he's got you know obviously the elite of elite in terms of weapons you know you you kind of can't comprehend a player on tyree kill's team could average more yards per reception than tyree kill and yet jaylen wattle did that and so those two players alone unlock an entire offense that now features Devon Achain. Jeff Wilson and Mostert are still there.

They added Chosen Anderson and Braxton Berrios to this team, and they didn't lose much. Mike Gasicki wasn't heavily involved, and Trent Shurfield wasn't heavily involved. So there's a lot to like about their opportunity this year. I would agree with you. I know I gave the concerns on the concussion stuff, but I hesitate and then I click draft.

I've been drafting, you know. It's like a little pump fake, but then you take the shot. Absolutely. I draft a lot of Tua. I draft a lot of Waddle and a lot of Tyreek and a lot of A-Chain. This is an offense and a division. I likes two of those things. Which two are you off of there?

No, I liked two of those things. No, I don't like crafting A-chain. I think it was an A-chain comment. Yeah. Which, Mike, why don't you take some time to talk about his height and weight? So, it feels unfair to the man, Devon A. Chain, who had a prolific college career, but he's smaller. I know we're essentially a sub-190-pound running back.

We haven't seen, historically, a bunch of successful players who are in that physical stature at the running back position granted we don't see a lot of those players just drafted overall or even make it onto an NFL field so maybe he is special maybe he is different but it's it's it's really tough when you have like Raheem Mostert is old but he's still crazy fast. And Jeff Wilson, when actually healthy, Jeff Wilson's a good running back who is reliable for this team. They traded for him.

The Dolphins traded for Jeff Wilson like the middle of last year, and Jeff Wilson immediately went into being essentially the leader of the timeshare. So it would surprise me if Devon A-chain is truly the running back that you want on your fantasy teams from Miami I this is an ambiguous situation I want to take some chances on so if if you're on if you're in the A-chain camp go okay go go draft him but uh for me it's Jeff Wilson who I have ranked the highest of the three. But I do think that you should be taking a late chance on at least one of these guys in almost every single one of your drafts because all of them are after the 10th round.

And for a running back who could – if they change the system and have a primary running back for this high-powered of an offense, that would be a huge reward for a double-digit round running back for this high powered of an offense there's there that would be a huge reward for a double digit round running back i just want to give a lay of the land here as we talk about all three of these backs in so much as devon h is a rookie running back for miami they drafted him this season mike and i have him in the 50s uh we see him as a weapon that is probably better on the football field than he is in your fantasy roster it's not a lot of volume uh and jason is he's really the one that is well

ahead of adp here at rb24 um mike i i heard your argument against a chain and it reminds me a lot of kind of why you were cautioning people about giovante williams and the severity of the injury when we were discussing him on our last show, which was just like it's a reasonable take, the historical evidence. It also lands equivalent to Jason's arguments against Dalton Kincaid. You have to make the case of special, the argument of special, on Devon Aitain to presume him as a top 24 type of running back, which is, you know, that's a line that you, I mean, you could take that shot.

If you believe that Mike McDaniel is going to use him in that way, if you don't believe in Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert, all of those things are factors here. And, you know, Mostert and Wilson, I'll remind people, they were both given renewals on the contract to come back this offseason pre-A-chain drafting. So I think all three will be involved. And as someone who had Mostert and Jeff Wilson, I'll be honest, that sucked last year.

Yeah, it was gross. From the moment that Jeff Wilson was traded over. Mostert was a steal for me in drafts at the beginning of the year. But the second they traded for Jeff Wilson, it was like touchdown roulette. If you got the one that scored you had a happy day and if you didn't you were like crap and it was almost always the guy you didn't expect going into that game everything would lead to one being the right guy and it was the wrong decision this is why if I'm taking a shot on one of them which I agree with Mike you need to take a shot on one of them, which I agree with Mike, you need to take a shot on one of them, I lean towards A-chain

because I don't think you need the touchdown necessarily or the goal line opportunity from A-chain. Mostert is super fast. He's 4'4", 3". He's lightning on the field. Yeah, he had big plays last year. Devon A-chain is other world. He's 4'3", 2".

So when you talk about he is an outlierlier like I don't bet on guys his size I bet completely against running backs at 100 and sub 90 pounds it just doesn't work out historically evidence is against it it would have to be a special situation and a special talent that's just what I see here I see a 4-3-2 guy who landed in the perfect one cut system with Tyreek and and Jalen Waddle and it's just like if you give this guy a crease he gone even on an NFL field he gone that's a 60 yard touchdown he may land in the fourth row though after the first hit that's the only the only risk but no look I'm looking forward to watching Miami like I'd like yeah this is a team that I think you know if you talk about pessimism or the win total

for Buffalo, like, there's a world where we're talking about Miami and Buffalo battling for this division later in the season. Alright, let's talk about New England. 8-9 last year. I can't believe they're 8-9. You know, I'm going to describe New England to you.

I'm going to paint a picture for you. If Buffalo is like a beautiful meadow that you've hung in your hallway, you know, bright colors, the Patriots feel like the upside down. Sure. Like that, it's like desaturated environment. Like there's something, there's a malaise feeling about the Patriots right now. Eight and a half win total last year, down to seven and a half this year. Mac Jones doesn't get people excited if they're in New England or if they're in fantasy football. Your best wide receiver is gone, Jacoby Myers.

Your best running back is probably, I mean, one of your two running backs has gone into Ian Harris. And your solution is a still injured Juju Smith-Schuster and Mike Kosicki, which we've gone to this well since Gronk of the multi-tied in. Oh, John Eusmith's going to have his day in Hunter Henry and now

it's Mike Kosicki. I'm not trying to talk bad and discourage New England fans, but I just don't know the way out right now in this division. They're 32nd in passing attempts, 26 in total yards. Matt Patricia and Joe Judge were given the keys to the offense. Yeah, that was a big problem. By Bill Belichick.

And so that was a – and now Bill O'Brien's there. So, yeah, I mean – That's much better. It should be. But do you even have the personnel to execute, right? Like, I just don't know if the answer is yes. No, I completely get it. I think the majority of people are pessimistic on the Patriots' outlook.

If you look at where Mac Jones is being drafted by the fantasy community, he's just – he's like the last starting quarterback that anyone will touch. In underdog leagues, you can get him after guys that you're not even sure they're the starting quarterback. After the draft is done. They let you have an extra roster spot, and they just slide him on. And so I think that's indicative of that talent, of the fact that you've got an injured Juju.

We don't know. I have been drafting quite a bit of uh Taequann Thornton uh in best ball because I his speed and his necessity in this offense as a year two wide receiver uh could hit what you're hoping for here is that Bill O'Brien changes things drastically because you saw Mac Jones, his rookie year, show signs of being a good quarterback. Like, he was not bad. And then last year, you saw, instead of a step up, frustration across the board. Mac Jones screaming at the sideline, yelling at them to throw the ball down the field. Like, why won't you let me throw the ball down the field as everything is just dink, dunk, dink, dunk, just drop it off down low.

Zap, zap, zap, zap, zap, zap, zap, zap. Yeah, and it was crazy because when Zappi came in, they were like, here, let's call some plays down the field. So Mac Jones was frustrated, but he's got Bill O'Brien coming in. The hope is that you open it up. The bet is against New England, though, based upon the fact that they have the hardest strength of schedule, according to Warren Sharp. They have probably the most difficult division to play in and not a lot of talent on the offensive side.

So for fantasy purposes, it's from Andre. Yeah, Andre. And maybe that's your your shot i mean you could take the juju or parker or thornton like jason said late late late late late best ball but this is a good defense too their eighth and yards allowed fewest rushing touchdowns allowed that's the recipe that's the bill belichick way to win so they're not bringing sexy back is what i'm saying. No. But Mike does have Ramondre ridiculously high in his rankings. I do. Because you mentioned the player they lost, Damian Harris, is gone.

And Damian Harris is a good running back. The other guys that are on this roster, we're talking about Ty Montgomery, who maybe he's in the plans. Maybe he was in the plans last year but got injured right away, and, I mean, is also, he's quite old. I mean, Kyle, look up how long Ty Montgomery has been in the league. It feels like forever. It was 1976 was the rookie year. It feels like forever.

And then it's Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, two later round guys. So, yeah, Ty Montgomery has been in the the league since 2015 when he was a wide receiver back then i just this is like looking at the depth chart bill belichick likes to to you know destroy fantasy hopes and dreams i don't know that they haven't i think i don't think they can i think you have to put remandre in third most, fourth most receptions, third most evaded tackles. The guy is a tremendous running back, and he needs to be the engine of the offense. First most fumbles that ruin my playoffs. Sure.

Look, Ramondre, if I had not made the bet that they would add somebody, which was entirely made because of this depth chart, that was a mistake right now now they're still in contention for like dalvin cook and zeke or something but like we're all staring at the depth chart going um you know what happens if ramondre goes down like he missed some time last year he missed at least a game um to my recollection so there's no one it's ramond Ray as an offense right now which did not miss a game he played I think he might have been banged up in one of them but man yeah he felt like he went off the field a couple times sorry just to go back also to the Dolphins because we were having a big running back discussion there was a rumor out there that dalvin cook has an offer currently from the miami

dolphins it's not obviously it was if if the offer does exist it is not the offer that dalvin cook wanted financially but it's worth bringing up that the miami dolphins are still in on the dalvin cook sweepstakes yeah definitely worth bringing that up if he signs, then what we said about taking a shot on the other guys, just throw that away. Yeah, forget about that. All right. Let's talk about, I think, a very polarizing, exciting, interesting team, the Hard Knocks team of the year, the New York football Jets,

who went 7-10. Their win total was 5.5. So last year, despite all the tumult and Brees Hall's injury and Zach Wilson and everything we were watching, they beat their win total. Their projected win total this year is 9.5. And they're rebuilt. They're entirely rebuilt and in their defense

robert say love it's so fun to watch um i cannot wait for hard knocks the amount of players that i'm interested in seeing in there it's not just the whatever goofy aaron rogers drama you're going to have there's going to be the backup quarterback and zach wilson hanging around um he's like one of those sucker fish that's on the – Is that on the whales or the – I thought you were talking about the tank, the guys, the bottom beaters? No, no, no, no, no, no. The ones that like hang around the sharks and they just eat the extra stuff.

They swim with them. They swim with the shark and the shark gets all the big food and they just have the leftovers. That's Zach Wilson. And then you've got Garrett Wilson who we all adore I mean this guy's a an absolute gamer um you've got Sauce Gardner who's just the electric and and I want to see Robert Sala and the and the coaching staff and um you know they added Alan Lazard and Randall Cobb and McCall Hardman along with just one of the best quarterbacks of all time.

So it's hard for me to decide. I'll be honest. I'm going to preview the end of this show. I can't decide between the Jets. And Miami. And Miami. And I think the Jets could win this division. Oh, wow.

Spicy. I do. I'm not going to – I don't think I'm going to predict that. But I think. But if it happens, you're going to say. Remember, I did mention I thought it could happen. I guess my point is this. I think three teams in this division could win the Super Bowl.

I really do. Wow. I think the Jets, the Dolphins, and Buffalo could win the Super Bowl. You're going to make a lot of people happy when you say that. Well, not the Patriots fans. Well, they're not happy already. You have enough. You're going to make a lot of people happy when you say that. Well, not the Patriots fans. Well, they're not happy already. You have enough. You have enough wins. Why don't you take

20 years off and then come back to the table? Some of us have none. You need competence at quarterback. And if you get competence at quarterback, this team wins 10, 11 games. If you get excellence at quarterback, they might win 12 or 13.

Yeah, you're not getting excellence at quarterback. In Aaron Rodgers. In Aaron Rodgers. With Garrett Wilson. That doesn't make any sense. He's one year removed from back-to-back MVP seasons. How many years removed was Peyton Manning from being unbelievable? That's not a good comment.

Yeah, Peyton Manning physically disintegrated in front of us. Aaron Rodgers could still throw the ball. How about Tom Brady going to Tampa a couple years removed from an MVP? My point is I thought Aaron Rodgers looked like he took a step down last year. Yes, I realized two years ago he was an MVP, but last year he didn't look the same. He didn't look as good. He didn't drive the ball down the field as much. He didn't see the same. He didn't look as good. He didn't drive the ball down the field as much.

He didn't see the field as well. Like, I'm saying I think we saw the beginning of the progression where he's no longer the MVP first ballot. I mean, he's a first ballot Hall of Famer. I'm not taking anything away from his career. I'm saying at this stage, is he still one of the three best quarterbacks in the league? I don't think so.

What does last season look like if Devontae Adams is running up the side of the field? Much, much better. I don't know if we could make it better. I mean, it's got to be a lot better. I mean, that's a hard part, right? We went into last year doubting him fantasy-wise because he lost one of the best wide receivers in the game. I can't imagine.

I mean, Garrett Wilson's penciled in for a 1,100 to 1,500-yard season. Yeah, obviously it would have been better with Devontae Adams. But my point is if we're talking about him as an elite of the elite, one of the top three, top five. Patrick Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill last year. He was fine. Sure. I mean, so it would have been easier with Devontae Adams.

But on the field, like film-wise, I just thought he looked not as great. Are you happy that he's there for Garrett Wilson? Yes, because if you talk about Zach Wilson versus Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Rodgers is going to look like Patrick Mahomes. I mean, the gap is awesome. So there's a reason why the win total is tied with the Dolphins, and it's up at 9.5, and their defense is awesome. So there's a reason why the win total is tied with the Dolphins, and it's up at 9.5.

Their defense is great. They've got the weapons, and they have certainly a quarterback that can get it done. But I'm speaking from winning a Super Bowl and fantasy value. Will he, one, need to really score a ton in the passing game with this defense. And will he provide enough? Garrett Wilson is being drafted like the one-two turn right now, early second round.

That is a little scary to me. I believe in the talent. Seventh in pass attempts last year. Seventh as a team, despite being that good of a defense. They're 29th in points per game. So that'll be the gamble, right? Jason, if you were going to draft in fantasy, it's one of the last picks of your draft,

and you've waited on quarterback, and you have to decide between these three gentlemen. Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson. Put them in order. I would go... I'm going to go with my rankings, which are Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers. Okay. Mike,

do you paint a rosier fantasy picture for Aaron Rodgers, or are you just more excited as the team as a whole? I'm very excited for the team, and not only did you have Aaron Rodgers, you know, Devontae Adams was gone. I had hoped that Alan Lazard could step up, which Alan Lazard had a pretty good year.

Christian Watson, who we remember how great the year was for him because he had a breakout campaign for fantasy. The guy was on and off the field, missing him because he had a breakout campaign for fantasy like the guy was on and off the field missing games because he was injured so we didn't you didn't have a like a full cohesive offense here for Aaron Rodgers and it's you it it's kind of funny because of how bad Nathaniel Hackett was as the head coach for the Denver Broncos but Hackett was the OC for three straight years in Green Bay including two of the years where Aaron Hackett was the OC for three straight years in Green Bay, including two of the years where Aaron Rodgers was the MVP. Nathaniel Hackett is now the offensive coordinator for the New York Jets.

So I'm not saying I'm pushing all my chips back in on Aaron Rodgers. Because if you're 100% in on Aaron Rodgers, it makes taking a late-round quarterback extremely easy because I don't even have to think about it. I punt, and then I get Aaron Rodgers it makes taking a late round quarterback extremely easy because I can just I don't even have to think about it I punt and then I get Aaron Rodgers really late here here's uh something to think about with Rodgers with Brees Hall which Jason you've talked about maybe him being overpriced right now not knowing how that the health is going to uh impact the beginning of the season Garrett Wilson and company all of, all of his optimism around the offense.

Here's my biggest concern about drafting these players right now. It's the schedule. And I've talked about this with Brees Hall before, but they begin the year with three brutal defensive matchups. So if you are pulling the trigger, I wouldn't draw final conclusions after Buffalo, Dallas, New England to start the season. Because those might not be... Now, if they go out and they take it to those teams right out of the gate with a brand new offense and a brand new quarterback,

then I'll be proven... I'll be very impressed. But that is a tough start to the year. And then they go to Kansas City. I'm sorry, they play Kansas City at home in week four. So those four matchups, I remember thinking about this when it came to even Brees Hall's start to the year because he's going to have reps limited easily.

They're not going to give him 25, 26 carries in week one. So the first three or four weeks may not tell the whole tale for this offense and that could be the difference between you know Miami and New York finishing second in this division yeah the the end of the season schedule is really really nice from them from a travel perspective and the matchups I think beyond about week eight yeah so there was a lot of kind of conspiracy theory when the NFL schedule came out that the NFL was really trying to do some nice things for the Jets but it is worth knowing those first few matchups because over the last couple years I think I think all three of us

and maybe the entire fantasy community have realized really how important the beginning of the season is for whether or not your draft picks were good because you're going to end up trading guys and moving guys and adjusting your roster how they start the season really impacts whether or not it was a good draft pick and then the value that is inherent and if you're not holding on to these guys all season. So maybe the Jets are someone to target a month in. And maybe longer because they go to Denver after Kansas City and then they play Philly. So the first six weeks are brutal.

And then a bye week. And then the bye week. And then maybe you're like buying Jets during the bye week. Maybe. I don't know. That's the hardest part is looking at that schedule and saying, even if a couple games go well, it seems on the surface very difficult, but then the back half of the year is –

Juicy. It's pretty juicy. So something to consider. Brees Hall, right now the team has said Michael Carter has the – right now he's the number two. And then you also have Zonovan Knight who played last year. You have Israel. A band of Kanda. Yeah, who gave you that have Zonovan Knight, who played last year. You have Israel. Abanacanda.

Yeah, he gave you that chance. Do you have one of those? Yeah. Abanacanda. Don't want none. Beautiful. You really need him for that to really hold up. He's going to have to do some stuff.

He's been making waves. We were pretty sad when the draft capital came in. Yeah, because that i mean that drop took you a while i mean moments many moments does alan lazard have uh have your eye at all a little bit uh i think right now wide receiver 51 in adp yeah i mean if if Aaron Rodgers is good, which is a very realistic outcome, who is the wide receiver two here? And it's going to be Alan Lazard. Corey Davis has been certainly good enough as an NFL wide receiver,

but this team seems like they don't care that much about him. And Alan Lazard has been with Aaron Rodgers. He's the most consistent guy that he has. He knows the system. He's been with aaron rogers he's the the most consistent guy that he has he knows the system he's been with hackett so this is like it's it's almost opposite roles for cory davis and alan lazard you think oh cory davis is the guy that's been there but no really alan lazard's the guy that's been on this team on this offense right this quarterback and this offensive coordinator all right let's uh let's break it down. I'll give you my division winner.

It's Buffalo, and then I'm going to go Miami, New York, New England. That is exactly what mine is as well. Mike? I will go Buffalo, New York, Miami, New England. Okay. All right. Let's get into Best Ball Breakdown. Best Ball Breakdown, presented by underdog fantasy all right a new segment every week leading into the season looking at best ball i know jason is

knee deep in another 600 to 800 drafts i'm on the clock in three right now. And today's topic is going to be the ADP price check segment, but for round seven. We did this a couple weeks ago looking at round seven, looking at upside, looking at who fits your team based on how you built or you normally build your team early and who you're targeting with picks 73 to 84 in basketball drafts right now. Mike, who do you have your eye on?

Sure. It's a tough player because is he good? I don't think we know just yet. But Rashad White, starting running back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a starting running back in the seventh round who saw 50-plus receptions and one of 11 rookie running backs over the last decade to do that. So, I mean, his volume was pretty nice last year. It didn't turn into a lot of production.

Granted, that was Tom Brady, who historically gives his running backs the ball all they can handle, and this will be a different offense. But it's still the Rashad White show, at least to begin the year, and to get a starting running back who could be seeing, I don't know, 16-plus carries and then four-plus targets per week, that's an outrageous level of volume that could show up potentially in the seventh round. When I looked at picks 73 to 84 right now in adp on best ball that was the first name that jumped out of me especially because he's at the very very bottom of that list um but i'm gonna go with johan dodson because he's

in that list and i think when you look at the other wide receivers around him, George Pickens, Gabe Davis, Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, Kadarius Toney. I have Jahan Dotson ahead of all of those guys significantly. It doesn't mean that other players don't have opportunities, but Jahan Dotson is somebody that I think he is primed for a breakout season with a new offensive coordinator, with two new quarterbacks, maybe one to work out but this is this is a thousand yard plus receiver and I think that that is kind of a conservative estimate for him this year with what this offense is going to try to do part of me hopes is Jacoby

Brissett the whole time and that they have some success how dare you oh Oh, that was wonderful. Thank you. So I think, you know, those first four weeks, scored a touchdown, then he got hurt, took him a while to come back, and he's being undervalued, and it's evident here. This is first-round draft pedigree. First round. Production. The kid had a good year for the amount of time that he was on a football field, and he's surrounded, like he's going behind Jordan Addison, who we project that Jordan Addison's going to be good.

I can't tell you for sure. Kadarius Toney, is he good? I don't really know. Gabe Davis, we talked about that. Is he good? I don't really know. But I do know that Jahan Dotson can already get it done on an NFL field. Yeah. I do know about Jordan Addison though. That's the name I want to bring up because Jordan Addison is a super. You've seen something that we haven't seen.

No, because I've seen what you have seen. He's super good at football. He's a great wide receiver. He's a Blitnikoff award winner, and he lands in a place where his opportunity from week one is going to be outlandish. Do you know that Adam Thielen ran 103 more routes than CeeDee Lamb last year? He was number two in the league. He's gone. He goes into this role. He's not going to have harsh coverage on him with Justin Jefferson across the field, so I really like Jordan Addison for the chance. I mean is best ball right you're trying to find league winners in best ball you're trying to find guys that can really explode because we haven't seen him and he's a rookie there is the chance that he's better than we hope better than we expect so

he's one name and then the other guy I brought him up what about worse than we expect and worse than we've seen? Is that a possibility? It's absolutely a possibility. It's a possibility with any of these guys, but with Gabe Davis, right? Gabe Davis is a post-hype sleeper. Maybe it's good offense. There's reasons to say that that's a good pick, but we've seen him have opportunity and not come through.

To your point, and I'm going to share information here off a tweet from lucas uh win cl uh last year her cousin second in red zone pass attempts second in pass attempts inside the tent adam feeling fifth and red zone targets fifth and red zone receptions fifth and red zone uh fifth and receptions inside the 10 so if if it's Addison, there's going to be opportunity. Now maybe it's Hawkinson. Maybe it's K.J. Osborne. But the opportunity for someone to step up there is tremendous. It's a great landing spot for him.

I was very excited when he went there. The other name I just want to bring up is because in the late rounds, you're looking for people that can crack your scoring lineup. You know, it's automatically done for you. And whenever a guy gets a touchdown, he's usually good enough to score for your roster and the touchdown opportunities for David Montgomery inheriting that Jamal Williams role. Jamal Williams just had the most rushing attempts inside the five-yard line of all time. He's, you know, Jameer Gibbs is great, but Jameer Gibbs will not be used as the goal line guy there.

He wasn't in college. He's small. He's not a pile mover, and they're going to bring David Montgomery in, and Jared Goff sucks around the goal line. Like, there's a reason that they kept going to Jamal Williams because their offensive line is great. They don't have to worry about turning the ball over, and they kept scoring touchdowns.

I think David Montgomery in the seventh round is going to be an 8-12 touchdown scorer this year. All right, that was Best Ball Breakdown presented by Underdog Fantasy. You can get your first deposit matched up to $100 using the code BALLERS. BALLERS. I'm looking forward to talking about that NFC North division and those Lions that you just mentioned. But you're going to have to wait. Also,

expect some mayhem on Saturday. Yes! Don't miss it. See you then. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers. You're still here? Well, why don't you take a second and head on over to jointhefoot.com and consider supporting our independent podcast. You get access to exclusive episodes every week, access to a thriving community of like-minded fantasy football players, and access to special tools to help you win each week. Learn more at jointhefoot.com.