Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - AFC East Breakdown + Late Round Strategy - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/10

Episode Date: July 10, 2025

Fantasy Football show for July 10, 2025. Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots! AFC East fantasy football preview on today’s show! Will Tyreek Hill be a difference maker? Can Drake Maye and the Pats offen...se take a step forward? Get a full breakdown for 2025 fantasy football drafts. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.2025 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com(00:00) Introduction(05:30) Drafting backup running backs(13:50) NFL News(17:40) Divisional Breakdown: AFC East(18:00) Buffalo Bills(32:30) Miami Dolphins(42:35) New York Jets(51:30) New England PatriotsConnect with the show:Subscribe on YouTubeVisit us on the WebSupport the ShowFollow on XFollow on InstagramJoin our Discord

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Thursday July 10th Mike the fantasy hitman Jason Moore Andy Holloway the fantasy footballers podcast. Back at it back with you. More talk talk about football. More Talk Talk About Football. Talky Talk Talk Talk. Another division.
Starting point is 00:00:50 Yep, we are in the midst of our divisional overviews, looking at the breakdown of the AFC East on today's episode. Some say the most important division to get right. Is that true? You'll find out. Okay. I thought you had more insight in the comments. Well I was leaving it for the show but we're doing the AFC East and the Miami Dolphins are... They're definitely one of the bigger question mark weird wild card teams that exist. You could have the overall wide receiver one on that team.
Starting point is 00:01:28 You could have draft picks that you throw into a furnace because that team still can't figure out the offense. Does it feel like they went eight and nine last year? No. Because they did. It does not feel that way. Which I believe that was the Colts record. Correct.
Starting point is 00:01:43 That we just went over in our last episode. Also did not feel that way. Also did not feel that way. But I would say that we're all probably more bullish on the Dolphins prospects going forward than the Colts. I mean, to be fair, we, I think, picked the Colts to finish second in the division. I feel like we just got kind of bullied into that. By Jason's strong arm, like, don't be chalk.
Starting point is 00:02:06 Yeah. Don't do what they did last year or what the odds say. Do something different. I mean, I'm guessing one of us at least picks the Dolphins to be second in the division again this year. We'll find out later in the show. But happy to have you with us. We've got a good quick question of the show today.
Starting point is 00:02:24 Quick question of the day for the show. I don't really know what's happening. We also have some news to talk about, or at least some rumors, more things to get into. The Ultimate Draft Kit, I put in some updates this morning, was going through and auditing a handful of teams, as we often do. You can see all of those updates at ultimatedraftkit.com. All of our player projections with stat projections for everybody. And the draft analyzer available
Starting point is 00:02:52 right now as well so you can import your team from any platform and find out what we think about it, where your strengths and weaknesses are, other teams in your league. They get a grade now as well. And a reminder, we're three shows a week for the month of July, Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday. Oh man. Lawns stand no chance. No, you can mow your lawn any of three days. Or if you're in Arizona, you know, spraying little spritz on your turf. Yeah, yeah, I mean, we don't, I guess, was there value to that routine?
Starting point is 00:03:30 To which? The mowing. I guess the value is the natural grass that is cool to the touch. Yeah, no. It doesn't burn your feet. I have heard great things about it. I mean, like, of course, when you're young
Starting point is 00:03:41 and someone brings up that, you're like, hey, yard work. No, absolutely not. I'm not doing chores. But as we've gotten older, I am a bit envious of the other dads out there that can go out there on Saturday morning, because it's nice outside. And then they mow their lawn.
Starting point is 00:03:56 Not here. It's nice where they're at. I understand that. We know how you stand on physical movement. Right, like you're actually envious of people going out and mowing their lawn. Yes, Mike, I don't know if it was a show. There is value to work.
Starting point is 00:04:10 There is value to physical labor. You feel good about yourself. Thank you. I tried to tell Jason all of this stuff last week. Someone just was rejecting it wholeheartedly. Someone just came out with a new ad campaign where they were proving to people, like measuring, I don't, endorphins, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:04:31 But there's like a measurement of something of satisfaction and feeling good. And it like, the outcome is when you're doing chores, you actually feel better than the dopamine hits that you're getting from social media and all this other bull crap. Of course. I agree completely.
Starting point is 00:04:49 It's just what chores are you doing? For me, spreadsheet work. You wouldn't even change your air filter. You didn't change your air filter. There is a riding mower, Jason. All right, okay. I'm a little bit more interested. When I say I'm envious,
Starting point is 00:05:02 I'm not talking about a push mower. We can't even bully him into work. Yeah this guy. But he does want us to give him credit for spreadsheet work. I want to work on a computer that's where I want my work to be. You can be endorphins. You could do the lawn and your computer. Far too inspired by Wally. Far too inspired. All right let's go ahead and jump into that quick question. Look at those guys, they're living good lives. Will said, do you prefer to draft backup running backs for your starters or go for guys who will get the most work if their starter goes down regardless of the team? So I would say that there are
Starting point is 00:05:39 many variables here of league size certainly matters. Cause they're like, if I'm in a 14 teamer where I know that the waiver wire is gonna be thin, perhaps I am more inclined to take my insurance running backs. The issue with it is at this point, we all have our pick. We all think we know who would get the primary work should a starter miss time. Sometimes you're right about that.
Starting point is 00:06:08 Sometimes you're very wrong. And you get left holding the bag of, like I rostered this backup running back, my starter goes down, and now my backup running back isn't even the guy. And someone else ends up usurping and taking over. So that's an issue by itself. But for the most part in the draft, if I'm drafting a back, I'm taking
Starting point is 00:06:29 somebody else's because that is a ceiling play. Because if one of my opponent's starters go down and I get the true starter for that team, my team is so much better. If I get my insurance running back, it's just a floor. My team stays exactly the same. Your team should, in theory, get worse. Yeah, it will. When your main starter goes down and the backup comes in, if you've got that guy, your team
Starting point is 00:06:54 still got worse. Yes. So, yeah, I usually focus on just... I don't really care whether they're on my roster or not, to be completely honest. I usually care about the actual situation. There's only, you know, most years, three or four guys where I go into that season saying I would be willing to draft that specific backup because I think that there is value should the starter go down.
Starting point is 00:07:20 That's all it is for me. Is there anyone else that you could think of top of mind besides Garendo? Because I think that's who I was gonna bring up are gonna be excited. I was gonna be the counterpoint to kind of some of your perspective there Is but that's just one situation correct and that's how you have to view it situation by situation. There is not a broad brush I mean we get the question every year do you draft the backups of your, how much do you prioritize the backup? Almost to the point where it's like,
Starting point is 00:07:50 assume you have to get the backup. I don't think any of us subscribe to, you have to get the backup. Correct. But there are a handful of situations that I'm not going to, if Gorindo's on the board and I have CMC, I am not looking elsewhere
Starting point is 00:08:05 for some other potential injury backup. I am going to get Gorrindo. And that comes with the nuance of knowing that Christian McCaffrey has been banged up and hurt. And we know that Gorrindo can be effective and that I have confidence in that offense. Like I'm not gonna blindly draft another backup just to have a different one on my team for ceiling play.
Starting point is 00:08:23 And Shanahan has showed us that when, like when McCaffrey's not healthy, he tends to lean on one particular running back. Also a lot of the reason we draft the running backs that we have are because of situations and confidence in their offense and the running game and things like that. So, you know, my answer was kind of neither. I would prefer to spin those late flyers
Starting point is 00:08:43 on a player that might have standalone value and has upside if an injury happens. So more of a committee, like a Taji Spears who we'll talk about, or we recently talked about, that kind of player. I would say Jordan Mason. Jordan Mason. Yeah, Jordan Mason's a great example. If they're going to get some work in the offense anyways, and then they benefit from an injury and become a top 15 back, that's my ideal situation.
Starting point is 00:09:08 Although I think Orindo in particular, I would definitely target a player dealing with Achilles tendonitis in both of your legs is a player I'm going to make sure that I'm protected. It's also relative to the investment, right? Like there's two sides of it. There's, okay, I want the ceiling because if somebody else happens to the investment, right? Like, there's two sides of it. There's, okay, I want the ceiling because if somebody else happens to get hurt,
Starting point is 00:09:28 I got two good guys now, but that predicates your guy staying healthy. But there's the other side. If you don't insure that back, and, I mean, imagine the other situation. You have Christian McCaffrey and you go out and get a backup for somebody else. When McCaffrey gets hurt,
Starting point is 00:09:42 you have a backup for somebody else and their starter isn't hurt. Now you have nothing. Of course. So it's a little bit of a... And they're all insurance things for what ifs. What if someone gets hurt? And then that doesn't even factor in, okay, you draft who you think. You're like, I got my insurance guy. I am locked and loaded.
Starting point is 00:10:00 Now think of your bench management throughout the season. That bench spot now goes to that one player. You know what the rules of life are, because you're the main character. The injury will happen as soon as you drop them. Exactly. That's why the answer to me is neither, in most cases. Just get somebody that I believe will have trade value,
Starting point is 00:10:19 that I believe will have opportunity, but still stands alone and doesn't just sit there like a lump on my bench, just waiting for bad things to happen. I would will have opportunity, but still stands alone and doesn't just sit there like a lump on my bench just waiting for bad things to happen. I would say this year, more than in recent years, there's not many. Like, you know, like, Jordan Mason's a great asset, but I don't view him as just an insurance back.
Starting point is 00:10:37 This year, when I'm looking at, like, who are the insurance backs that I want? Okay, Garendo, obvious situation there. Trey Benson, I think you've got an older, commonly injured James Connor ahead of him and the news has been good out of camp for. Yeah, I think he'd be great. Would you draft Trey Benson though,
Starting point is 00:10:54 if you weren't the Connor manager? I have a hard time seeing somebody, I mean, because. I mean, it just depends on what round you're in. That's just such a waste of a bench spot for. I mean, obviously, if there is not an injury to Connor, you're getting nothing out of him. It's a matter of how deep is the league, what round are you in, who else is available. I'm not going to take Trey Benson over Jordan Mason, you know, who could actually be valuable. Is Marshawn Lloyd probably not?
Starting point is 00:11:20 I don't think so. I mean, Will Shipley, but then is it AJ Dillon? I don't think there's a lot of... Sure, is it Kareem Hunt? Or they drafted a guy and they've still got Elijah Mitchell there. There aren't a lot. I'm looking at it.
Starting point is 00:11:33 Most of the situations, there's really... I feel like it's just kind of not a factor this year. Yeah, and another way to look at it is... Braylon Allen. Is when you're drafting someone like that, you might just be setting your team up for week one. If you stay with us throughout the season and the show, we talk about in season like,
Starting point is 00:11:59 hey, these are the players on Friday that I'm gonna toss on the back of my bench and let the weekend play out. That's the best way. And then we'll get to a point in the season because we will get these questions every single week as a time. We start talking about how we're handling our leagues personally of okay it's week whatever eight I don't know yeah my team's looking really good for the playoffs and at this point I'm looking to to shape my team with some safety. I want that safety net on the team. I'm not looking for an
Starting point is 00:12:29 additional ceiling player at this time so you know you got to stick with the show. It's not a there yeah there is absolutely no white black binary decision for this. You know Jason says it every year we say it every year you don't win your league at the draft, your selection of the backup, it's really gonna get hard because if you have other injuries on your team, you cannot afford to rush for somebody that you're just waiting for somebody to get hurt. But I just looked at every team.
Starting point is 00:12:56 There are very few. That's what I'm saying. Tyler Algier would be someone that, a Bichon injury. But Bichon being so young and built for a workhorse duty, you just don't presume injury there as easy as you do with like a Saquon who's older coming off a crazy workload. And some of the other backs that you might want that don't profile to be the RB1 necessarily
Starting point is 00:13:20 are not quite in that category of pure backup, undrafted, you know, Jalen Warren, Caleb Johnson situation, both will get drafted, right? And there's a lot of those. Eckler with Brian Robinson Jr., but Eckler won't go to the same place that a pure backup like Algier would go, so don't over-prioritize it. I think that's the biggest thing.
Starting point is 00:13:45 But at Gurindo, I would grab Gurindo. All right, let's talk some news. News and notes from around the league. It's a little funny that I'm saying grab Gurindo because of all the teams that have surprised us with different backups over the years when players get hurt. Yes.
Starting point is 00:14:03 They're 49ers. And that's what I mean. Are one of them. We assume it's Garendo right now. By the time week one hits, that might not be true. All right, a little bit of news for you. Dak Prescott says he is fully healthy and will be a full participant at the Sardau training camp,
Starting point is 00:14:20 Sardau training camp, which is great. He, man, have you seen him talking about George? Yeah. He's loving him some George Pickens right now. Yeah, we all love George at this time of year, man. This is George's time. But I think he's got great potential with Dak. Tristan Worf's Buccaneers all-pro left tackle.
Starting point is 00:14:42 Likely gonna miss the first couple of games of the regular season. That is not something you want to hear when it comes to protecting Mr. Baker Mayfield or the runners there. Bucky Irving trying to get off to a hot start. He had surgery, Tristan Wurst did on his right knee on Tuesday. So pay attention to those lines. They will get him back though. attention to those lines. They will get them back though. This one, it's hard to buy it, but I'll report it. Zach Jackson believes Jerome Ford is, quote, the starter for now and will still play and probably start early in the season. That is Cleveland Brown's Jerome Ford, the team that just spent a second round pick on Quincheon Judkins.
Starting point is 00:15:21 And barely, barely brought Jerome Ford back to this roster. They had him take a price cut. They said, hey, you wanna come back? We don't wanna pay you what you're, I mean. And he said yes because no one else will pay him. Right, exactly. So, I don't know, this is the time of year where you're always gonna be like, the rookie's gonna have to prove it,
Starting point is 00:15:42 and then they prove it. Judkins was the one that we said wasn't gonna have to prove it and then they prove it. Judkins was the one that we said wasn't gonna have to prove it and then this came out the next day. It's annoying. It is something to pay attention to though as like we'll see if that drumbeat gets louder. Like Jerome Ford when he's the starter he has been quite fantasy relevant. Yeah, it matters, and especially for the Judkins ranking. It might matter more for that. I personally, after this report, I did not change my... I have Judkins as the week one starter.
Starting point is 00:16:14 And if this continues up through training camp, into pre-season, and it really seems like that, obviously I will adjust those rankings. I do not take this kind of guesswork report as, this isn't coming from the head coach saying Jerome Ford's our dude. Yeah, we're gonna learn all these situations with the rookies are gonna be told. We'll get a lot more information when you see who's running with the first team throughout camp and where the trust levels are and what the coaches say.
Starting point is 00:16:44 And this is just stage one speculation, you know they're all they're all gonna have to prove themselves Henderson Judkins everyone but Gentie right he's good he proved it yeah he did that in college yeah all right we are going to I would throw in this real quick this Joe Mixon news I think Brooks just dropped this in for us that there's reports that he should be ready for training camp But he is dealing with foot ankle issues and someone who yeah He was on a walking boot a couple weeks ago. I said he had ankle issues last year and you know some of the late season decline is
Starting point is 00:17:20 Being called upon you're like hey remember he had an ankle issue So for it to already or still be bothering him Got we got to keep an eye on it All right, we are going to take a quick break and we're gonna jump into our a of C East breakdown Let's get divisional. All right. This is our third episode. This time breaking down the AFC East.
Starting point is 00:17:55 We're looking at those big off season changes to the rosters, players, rookies, coaches, looking at the offenses, our expectations and how they could function, the big questions around these four teams within the AFC East and how they're going to impact your fantasy football team. And then we'll weigh in with our order of how we think the division is going to finish. Last year, like it has for I believe five straight years yep Buffalo wins it 13 and 4 last year a runaway division winner and they've won the AFC East five straight years like I said it's been a really good run I mean
Starting point is 00:18:40 since 2019 they made the playoffs in 2019, and then they won five straight divisions. And so you've got six years in the playoffs and six years of falling short, coming up short. So that's been kind of hanging over the bills now for a couple of years, getting through the AFC. Can this be the year that they get, you know, all the way into the Super Bowl?
Starting point is 00:19:04 I mean, every year it's kind of, you look at them and you look at their roster and you say this is certainly, they're one of the favorites. That's kind of where they've been. 13 and four year, they had a projected win total last year of 10 and a half, it's up to 11 and a half this year.
Starting point is 00:19:20 Number two in points per game, I think last year one of the big storylines was, hey, what does Josh Allen do without Stefan Diggs? And the answer is win the MVP. Oh, excellent. So big questions around Buffalo have to do with fantasy players discerning value beyond Josh Allen. To me.
Starting point is 00:19:39 Yes. Because Josh Allen, he's locked and loaded as a, you know, you take him high in drafts if you want to, you know what you're getting with Josh Allen. But beyond that, the pass catchers, you literally don't know what you're getting because you've got players like Dalton Kincaid that have disappointed and a whole hodgepodge of wide receivers. Khalil Shakir, yes, it was kind of a breakout, but it wasn't a hugely impactful fantasy breakout. And Keon Coleman, rookie wide receiver, a lot of expectations, gets banged up, has a disappointing rookie year.
Starting point is 00:20:12 They add Joshua Palmer, and then Dalton Kincaid's story has been nothing but fantasy disappointment thus far. Yeah, I mean, there's not a lot to love from a great offense. Isn't it weird? to love from a great offense. I think it shows how good Josh Allen is, that he's got this hodgepodge of skill-positioned guys, and he still has- I mean, the hodgepodge has two first-round pass catchers.
Starting point is 00:20:36 Well, I'm just saying quality talent, they're trying. They're trying to, you know, they took Keon Coleman in the first, that doesn't make Keon Coleman a really good player. He's the question mark on the Bills. He's the guy that's like, can he step up and become someone great or not? And I think most people after that rookie season were not bullish on Kion Coleman saying like, oh, he's going to be absolutely elite. 29 receptions. That's not a lot.
Starting point is 00:21:07 That was it? Yeah, that was it. And I mean, he had big plays for the team. And then you had the news that he chipped a bone in his wrist in week nine, which is going to be food for the excuse makers. But it is a little strange that you have the the best three teams. I think in the AFC Baltimore Buffalo, Kansas City. Mm-hmm They all have yeah like a hodgepodge of past catchers
Starting point is 00:21:36 It's no longer the Travis Kelce and Tyree kill dominating on the best or digs or you know, yeah It's or even Mark Andrews They've figured out how to piece together once you're paying for your quarterback, just a room of people that's acceptable for your great quarterback. But for fantasy purposes, that's not great. And furthermore, I think for fantasy purposes, I worry about this offense because of how much they want to run the ball, succeed running the ball, win running the ball. You look at Josh Allen over the last several years and yeah he was he was great last year. He's fantastic. But he wasn't the quarterback one or two last year for the
Starting point is 00:22:13 first time in forever. He was the quarterback four and he didn't throw for well over 4,000 yards like he was every year. He threw for 3,700 yards and it's like if the team is really good, which they project to be good, they've got the fifth easiest strength of schedule projected coming into this year, I think it's gonna be more of the same, where you're not really finding super fantasy gold
Starting point is 00:22:36 on this roster outside of Josh Allen being a top five quarterback. And hopefully you get a ton of rushing touchdowns from whichever running back you've decided to invest in. Which is, I mean, the James Cook discussion is one to be had. Passing percentage last year, they were 29th. Yuck! In the NFL.
Starting point is 00:22:54 Yucky doo doo! In 2022, they ran it 43% of the time. 2023, they ran it 52% of the time last year. Right at 55. So that lowers your guaranteed passing game production that you were getting week to week. He's not gonna have games where it's outrageous and wonderful, that happens, but it's not as guaranteed
Starting point is 00:23:21 when you pass at that level. It's funny because right now, Josh Allen is still being drafted average draft position as the number one quarterback. And I'm not sure he should be. I mean, obviously Lamar Jackson smoked him last year, but... I mean, I don't know. He's my number one. He is not my number one. But I mean, this isn't an anti... I'm going to double check it. What was he through week 17? Cause he didn't play the final week of the year.
Starting point is 00:23:47 Yeah, that's correct. He played the one snap, remember, cause he wanted to keep the games streak in a row so it messes up his fantasy finish. Cause I think it was, on a points per game basis, he was pretty, he had a couple of those dead games that they didn't need him. Baltimore, Miami, on the roads, single digit performances.
Starting point is 00:24:06 But plenty of number one overalls. And the number that stands out to you is the total passing yardage on the season. He was a 45, 44, 42, 43, and his 37 last year. So, 37 hundred. Points per game, weeks one through 17, and this is a six point passing touchdown. He was at 26.8, QB3, Joe Burrow was 27.7 for QB2.
Starting point is 00:24:33 And Lamar? 30 points. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, yeah. Lamar had an outlier year though. Lamar did have an outlier year, but you would expect Lamar right now to throw for more yards and run for more yards.
Starting point is 00:24:46 So, I mean, that's just, when you're looking at the value in a draft and you're deciding whether to take these big, expensive quarterbacks, I lean Lamar over Josh Allen right now with how the Bills, as a team, look like they're set up to win. So then when you're looking at the pass catchers,
Starting point is 00:25:04 do you have a pick for a guy who could actually step, like Shakir got the bag, Coleman is the second year player. I mean I would still take my shot on Coleman and hope. Coleman over Kincaid? Yeah, personally. I think, you know, hopefully Kincaid. Yeah, Shakir's bag came after a wide receiver 39 season, right and and he was with a handful of weeks that you cared He was very good for this team right and he was the wide receiver 39
Starting point is 00:25:36 I think your only hope for a fantasy difference maker is that Coleman develops into something special that Coleman develops into something much, yeah. Special touchdowns. Exactly. Yeah, I'm with you, I actually. 10, 11, 12 touchdowns. Completely agree with that. I think that Coleman is the shot to take and you're also going to, that shot's gonna come in the 11th, 12th round
Starting point is 00:25:53 of fantasy drafts, it's not gonna come in the seventh round or the sixth round, where Shakir might represent like the best target chair. I think I'm with that. I mean, I do think Dalton Kincaid is sitting there as a bounce back candidate personally. A post-hype sleeper? Yeah, I mean, he's going to be free. He's going to be somebody that you can take a shot at. It was not kind of bad though. It was real, real bad. It was pretty useless bad kind of situation for King Kate. I mean, tight ends are usually, you're talking,
Starting point is 00:26:26 you're gonna catch 70% of the balls, you're gonna catch 75% of your passes. You know, the way that you're utilized, it's a lot of easy stuff. Now, there was more downfield stuff with Dalton Kade, but he caught 58% of his passes. And he didn't do much with, it's not like, oh well, because he was catching 58% of his passes, he's getting 14 much with it's not like oh well because he was catching 58% of his passes getting 14 yards
Starting point is 00:26:47 Per he's at 10 yards per reception. He was terrible and I hope he was injured Because there wasn't there something yeah, there was a report there was something that he was injured And but I'm just hoping it's real and not just an excuse he missed three games with the knee But yeah, there was because something there's a story floating watching him last year It was just so clear. He wasn't it and it was clear They were trying to they were trying to make Dalton Kittecade happen though Like they kept having these designs funny because it feels like pits It feels like because they kept I mean Kyle pits lots of downfield rounds try to connect to him on those stuff
Starting point is 00:27:23 But when those don't hit, you have a horrible week. But at least you have a roster of pass catchers where you have the opportunity to be maybe the best one. Yeah. Like he could legitimately. Lead the team and target. Yeah, you have that chance here. You don't have digs, and Shakir's not that intimidating,
Starting point is 00:27:40 and Coleman, 29 catches last year, so that's a possibility. Looking at James Cook, the big storyline for him this off season has been touchdown regression. He had 300% times his- And financial regression. Well, so yeah, he's trying to get financial progression, but he hasn't got it yet. But 16 rushing touchdowns. I'd like this to return to the mean, please.
Starting point is 00:28:01 So let's be intellectually consistent here. We know how much they want to run the football. That's why you're being discouraged about certain aspects of the passing game. That is all directly translating into the value of James Cook and Ray Davis and whomever they want to get involved in the offense, Ty Johnson. What you just said is where the pessimism comes in is that they have three running backs
Starting point is 00:28:24 that are all three legitimately involved. Not like just a sprinkling in, a smidge. This is, James Cook was the running back eight. Awesome. James Cook played 45% of the snaps. You know, he's in a mega time share. And how what, 18 total touchdowns to put you at the running back eight is troubling.
Starting point is 00:28:51 But what does that regression look like if you're going to be a run heavy offense where he is definitely the most talented player? I mean, he was almost five a carry last year and these touchdowns didn't all just come in one game. You had so many of them that there were four games in the entire year he didn't all just come in one game. You had so many of them that there were four games in the entire year he didn't score. So that says to me, it's like he was the running back eight,
Starting point is 00:29:11 he's being drafted as a running back 14. If that goes from 16 total touchdowns to, I guess he had 18 total, 16 on the ground. But if it drops to 12, which is super reasonable for a team that was number two in points per game. He'll be great if it drops to 12. But I mean, at least his- if it drops to 12, which is super reasonable for a team that was number two in points per game. He'll be great if it drops to 12. But I mean, at least. If it drops to seven, which I think is totally
Starting point is 00:29:31 in the range of outcomes for him, considering he had had what, his career high was two before last year? Am I misremembering that? I mean, crazy low. Yeah, the year before, he had a higher snap percentage in total. Two rushing.
Starting point is 00:29:43 And went from two to 16. I mean, he had six total touchdowns in 23 but he had two on the ground. So I'm gonna go look at ADP He's in he's in the fourth round. Tell me before team. These are the couple running backs going right before James Cook Do you prefer James Cook over any of these guys? Let's go Kyron. I would take Kyron chase Brown or take chase Brown breeze. I Would take James Cook. Yeah, I would take Kyron. Chase Brown. I would take Chase Brown. I would take James Cook. Yeah, I would too. I'm gonna have an agreement with everything you said.
Starting point is 00:30:10 And then directly after James Cook, Ken Bone Walker. I would take James Cook. I'd take James Cook. Alvin Kamara. I'd probably take Cook. Joe Mixon. I would rather have Mixon at that value later in a draft. It's the same round though. I would probably take Mixon ahead of Cook.
Starting point is 00:30:26 Okay, that one's close. So then ADP wise, even though we are concerned about the regression, it seems like he's going. That's kind of why I brought it up. He's not being drafted as RV8. He's not being drafted with those expectations and you know, there are, you gotta reward a player in some ways for what they do, right?
Starting point is 00:30:44 Like not just, I don't like the- Just not financially. I just don't like, like he's got such a brief career, I don't wanna just look at the first two seasons and be like, that's his, his average touchdowns per year for his career is gonna be two. Like that's not a reasonable situation. In fact, last year, one of the reasons he was a favorite
Starting point is 00:31:03 in Fantasy Drafts was cause we saw that number as ridiculous. Yeah, yeah, we knew it was gonna go up, but you also have to, you know, he's 190 pound back. So it's like he doesn't project to be a 16 rushing touchdown type of guy. Right. So they start the year against Baltimore. That's gonna be fun. I think that's the first game of the year. Well done, NFL. So Baltimore at home First week and then the Jets Miami and New Orleans He he had seven touchdowns from inside the five. Yeah, wait, who's home? Is it Baltimore in Buffalo? It's in Buffalo
Starting point is 00:31:41 And then it's the Jets on the road and the Miami and New Orleans at home. So, you know, still definitely the favorites in this division. Sean McDermott's been there a long time, nine years. Joe Brady continues what got them a lot of success last year and is it Brandon Bean? Is that their general manager? Am I getting the first name right here?
Starting point is 00:32:05 There's too many Beans doing general managing. Kyle said correct for you. He is so annoyed with the view that they don't have the weapons they need on the offensive side of the football. And for good measure. You go out and you score the second most points in the league, you get an MVP at quarterback,
Starting point is 00:32:21 you succeed and then it's like, your expectation is we gotta find somebody flashier at wide receiver? No, you gotta win a Super Bowl. Yeah, you gotta win a Super Bowl, so. Miami, eight and nine somehow, last year, their win total though, before the season projected for 10 by Vegas, which they didn't accomplish this year.
Starting point is 00:32:40 It's at eight and a half. Does that surprise you at all? Or is it more indicative of just the AFC East? That's how it feels to me. Yeah I mean you got the Jets and the Pats you would think that Miami should pull out four wins there, at least three. Last year was a step back on offense 22nd and points per game 18th and yards per game. The big plays for Miami, they evaporated. They had only 45 total plays all year long of 20 plus yards. That is the opposite of what you expected for Miami.
Starting point is 00:33:12 That was 31st in the NFL. Cool. So you basically became the least explosive team. Yeah, least explosive down the field, and then also you couldn't run the ball in the short yardage area. 31st in EPA per rush, 30th in percentage of runs stuffed at the line because their offensive line was
Starting point is 00:33:30 bad. Yeah, so for the record, the least fun team to watch most of the time last year was Miami. If you cannot run the football... After week one. Week one was awesome. They come out, 2 of them looking good, he gets injured in week two and when he came back it was like, please don't make me watch that. No, it kind of reminded you of like when New Orleans was going through different quarterbacks and you just have to watch.
Starting point is 00:33:51 It just takes so long to get down the field. Yeah, and they couldn't run. So, you know, their defense, their defense was pretty good. That's one of the reasons why they could pull off an eight and nine season. Well, no Ramsey now. No Ramsey, but they had Minka on that trade. Mike McDaniel, probably a hot seat coach at this point.
Starting point is 00:34:14 Or close to it, a warming seat. Yeah, his tuchus is a little warm. And their OC, Frank Smith. Yep. Yeah. Sorry, Frank. Is that like a generic name? Yeah, Frank Smith. Yep. Yeah. Sorry, Frank. Is that like a generic name? Yeah, yeah, it really. Is that what tickles you?
Starting point is 00:34:30 No offense, Mr. Smith, but yeah, my name is Frank Smith, sure it is. What's your real name? High Cell Insurance. Yeah, like that's my burner name. Player subtractions this year, Johnny Smith, Raheem Mostert is gone and they added Darren Waller they added Nick Westbrook Akina to the wide receiver room
Starting point is 00:34:55 from Tennessee and they added Alexander Madison they loved Waller's tape from last year so we got to get that guy on the team yeah supposedly Waller only wanted to play for Miami to come back. Yeah. Which is good because there were quotes about, I don't know if you remember how he ended up walking away deciding he doesn't want to play football.
Starting point is 00:35:16 But it was basically he was in there and they were calling a bunch of run plays in a row and he's like, why am I in here blocking? And then he's like, I don't want to play football anymore. This guy wants to, like that was from Waller. That's what he said. You're a tight end, bro. No, no, no, he's a pass catcher. Sometimes you gotta block.
Starting point is 00:35:30 He is, so the fact that he is like, I'm willing to come back, but I only wanna go to Miami, makes me feel like at least, you know, he's looking at the John A. Smith target machine from last year. Think he had 111 targets, something like that, and hoping that he can fill that role. Now 33-year-old Darren Waller, who wasn't
Starting point is 00:35:48 that great last time we saw him, I don't expect him to even be able to replicate John New Smith from this last year, but it is worth noting like he might be more involved than we think in the target pecking order. Yeah, when you lose John New, we've been talking about target consolidation with Waddle, Tyreek, Achan. If Tyreek, like if the storyline with Tyreek is that target consolidation does not equal more explosive plays again, and Tyreek's kinda done, then that is even more of an argument
Starting point is 00:36:20 to why Waller could have a role. None of us have him ranked in a way that we're foreseeing that right now. Correct. You guys might have a different opinion, but me watching Tyree Kill, the film, I don't look at him, I'm like, it's totally gone. I never saw anything that made me think he was gone at all.
Starting point is 00:36:43 It was such a perplexing situation of No, he still seems okay. Maybe he's not did maybe he's not as fast But he still seemed fast enough to be to be putting up more plays than he did I mean, yeah, he wasn't slow But he didn't do what Tyreek did so much every single year prior, including the year prior, which is run away from people. I know he had the wrist injury, but it's like how does that, you know, how does the wrist injury really cause, maybe it was one of those things where they're not gonna run him deep because a deep
Starting point is 00:37:18 pass is less likely to be caught. I don't know, but once he had the ball in his hands, I felt like he was a little bit different. He had the third fastest time in the NFL on the field last year. It was weird. In week five, hit 22.01 miles per hour, which by the way, his teammate, Devon Aitchin, was the fourth highest at 21.93
Starting point is 00:37:39 during the season, and that's a good transition into the running game. And whether Devon Aitchin can be a true RB one for your team yep yeah he can and hold up here you know that the injury concerns are fair with Devon Achan if you have to rely on him to that degree any player is gonna be more vulnerable for injury but last year he did hold up let me tell you the target counts for Devon Achan with Tua playing. Seven targets? Seven? Eight? Five, four, four, nine, seven, seven, seven. It's like a, you know, call that number. But those are like outrageous. Seven targets a game is delicious. Those are great. 29% of his routes he was targeted.
Starting point is 00:38:26 That is fantasy gold a target is worth two and a half times a carry. And so I really like, I'm very bullish on HN this year, especially the post John New Smith trade. Yeah, and they're, you know, when you talked about the quick question of the day, the backup situation with Madison there and then Jalen Wright, like, theirs is a perfect example of if you have H. Anne, it's really tough to take a shot at who you think would be the backup because it's going to be, it'll be a committee if H. Anne went down. It won't
Starting point is 00:38:57 just be one guy. We've seen that. Jalen Wright needs to, I think Jalen Wright's a, he's an interesting guy to put at the back of your bench just in case in a draft and see what happens at week one, but he will need to improve. Like dramatically. Massively, and Madison was unfortunately effective. He's just.
Starting point is 00:39:20 He's a fine player. He can catch the football. He's like, if you get the default settings in Madden for a running back and you haven't added points to anything else, you just get the, everything across the board is just regular, that's how I view Madison. Yeah, I think that was true two years ago
Starting point is 00:39:38 and then one of the little bars got removed on each one of those topics of like, he's just a little. It was good last year. It was better last year than the year before. He was scoring touchdowns. I think that I don't like how the coaches talk about Alexander Madison in the positive.
Starting point is 00:39:56 Like they're including him very much as like part of their plans. I just don't, I don't think he's that good. I hope it's Oli Gordon. They spent a six round pick on Oli Gordon. This was a player who two years ago looked like he was gonna be a sensational, young, big bodied running back
Starting point is 00:40:15 and then had a down year last year, fell to the sixth round. But hopefully he could do something. That would be a little bit more exciting but I agree with the assertion that you you don't have any idea who the right firm backup is and there probably isn't one should a Chan go down most certain Madison just swapped spots did you realize that yeah they just flipped teams to be backups in on the other person's team who would you rather have saved the M I'd rather have
Starting point is 00:40:41 most hurt yeah yeah there are. Even at this age. At this, yeah, just because there's more clarity in that backfield, which we'll get to at some point. No, no, no, I'm saying, if you're a general manager. Oh, I thought you were saying as a fantasy player. Who would you rather have as the backup behind agent? Mostert. Yeah, me too.
Starting point is 00:41:00 Really? Man, he was. He was not great. He was, he was pretty bad was not great. He was... He was pretty bad last year. Yeah, they're both pretty bad now. That's why I'm hoping for Olly Gordon. Not Jalen Wright.
Starting point is 00:41:13 Or Jalen Wright. I mean, Jalen Wright is a, you know, 215-pound back that runs sub-4-4. I love those. He just looked... He was so tremendously awful last year. No vision, coming into year two. Open your eyes, man. I hope that he figures out the scheme a little bit better because obviously if you get the guy, the ball in space,
Starting point is 00:41:36 he's got the speed and the size to just take off. If you draft Jalen Wall at his ADP, which is the last pick of the fifth round. You are going to end the year, fill in the blank. You will end the year. Pleasantly surprised. Hope, what is the new phraseology we have? Oh, something.
Starting point is 00:41:59 Hopelessly. No, no, pessimistically. Happy? I don't remember. You as your phrase, bro. I know, it just comes out while I black out. That's what happens. I think Jalen Waddle at the back of the fifth, early sixth round is worth drafting.
Starting point is 00:42:16 Okay. They play Indianapolis in week one on the road, the New England Buffalo and the Jets. So divisional after the Indy game. Shall we take a break and then talk about those Jets? We shall. All right, let's do it. The Jets were five and 12 last year after a preseason win total of nine and a half in
Starting point is 00:42:44 Aaron Rodgers' return. They started out three and eight, then the general manager got fired after week 11. This year, we've adjusted. The projected win total is five and a half. I believe that is the lowest in the division. Am I wrong? Yes, yes.
Starting point is 00:43:03 It is by far. So, new expectations, new quarterbacks, new questions around the Jets 24th and points per game. Will they fix it with Justin Fields at quarterback? I don't know if that's going to happen. I don't know if they have enough personnel to really get that done, but that's why we're talking about them right now. Aaron Glenn, new head coach, got a new offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, goodbye. Oh no.
Starting point is 00:43:34 And no more Aaron Rodgers, no more Devonte Adams, no more Tyler Conklin. Conk, conk. But we replaced those two Hall of Famers and the tight end with Justin Fields and Josh Reynolds. And Mason Taylor. And Mason Taylor. That's their rookie tight end in the second round who I do think is you know a late round dart throw you could it Tyler Conklin's vacating a lot of targets here and they're the depth chart for pass catchers on this team I mean this is why I love Garrett Wilson if you want to make this is why I love Garrett Wilson.
Starting point is 00:44:05 If you wanna make the Pro Bowl case for Garrett Wilson, it's like, who are you throwing the ball to other than Garrett Wilson? Yeah, 200 target case? Yeah, for sure. I mean, the only thing against a 200 target, like if there was a different quarterback here, I'd probably project 200 targets for Garrett Wilson,
Starting point is 00:44:21 but you know that Justin Fields is probably going to run the ball himself a lot, and they won't just have him airing it out. Well the way that they're going to win games this year seems like it's going to be that hard-nosed recipe of you know Aaron Glynn getting in there trusting a running game where they like multiple backs playing defense they were third last year in total yard given up, and fourth in passing yards given up, so that is their strength. And we also saw Justin Fields have success
Starting point is 00:44:50 in more of a managerial quarterback situation in Pittsburgh. You don't want to necessarily put everything on his shoulders, and it's not, you know, it just can go too many places. That's what Justin Fields' struggles were in Chicago. It was like, you gotta do everything, you gotta figure everything out, and yes, you may make prolific runs or plays or throws,
Starting point is 00:45:12 but then you fumble and then you get sacked and then you fumble or throw a pick, and it's just too much to put on him. I feel like it's all on him again, though. Last year, he was very good for the Steelers, where he had a very good team around him. You know, he had a great coach and... It looks like he went four and two?
Starting point is 00:45:31 Yeah, he went four and two at the starter? Yeah, that was what was so impressive when they decided to make the switch to Russell Wilson, was you're a four and two successful team and you're going to Russ' back and healthy and you're gonna go to Russ. And it looked brilliant at first, because Russ came out on fire, they won more games.
Starting point is 00:45:50 Shoulda gone back. Yeah, I mean, we talked about on the Steelers, the last four games were a brutal schedule, but I do, I feel like this is, Justin Fields back with the Bears, where he doesn't have the weapons around him enough to like, I feel like it's all gonna fall on him at the end of every game,
Starting point is 00:46:08 and he's not gonna be able to overcome the bad team. So that's, Justin Fields on the field, they're not projected to win very many games, but Justin Fields, the fantasy player on the Bears, was good for a time. Yes, and I think he's gonna be good for the Jets, too. Last year, he was actually better than you realize. I mean, two years ago for the Bears,
Starting point is 00:46:26 17.7 fantasy points per game. Last year in the six starts, 18.9 fantasy points per game. He was not bad. And it's because he runs the ball so freaking much. What are you saying? I'm saying that those points will put you as like a bottom of a top 12 quarterback. Yes. Gotcha.
Starting point is 00:46:44 And he is not being drafted there. He's being drafted as the quarterback 18. I think he's one of the most mispriced people in fantasy right now. Well, one of the questions that come along with Justin Fields is, do you think he'll keep the job the whole year? When you're going to lose. Because when you lose games, which they're going to do,
Starting point is 00:46:59 it doesn't matter how well you're playing, you could get benched. You could get something could happen. Absolutely. And I think it's an irrelevant thing when you're picking the quarterback 18 in your fantasy draft. When you're picking the quarterback 16, 17, 18, you're planning on streaming the position
Starting point is 00:47:14 and you're probably not going to have a full season starter. I do think that there's a good chance he starts the whole season. More so than the guys in, you look at the Giants. Will Russ start the whole season? Probably not, they drafted Jackson Dart here, it's like it's Tyrod Taylor behind him. Yeah, if you make a bunch of mistakes though,
Starting point is 00:47:33 and it's on you to lose, that's when you could see a transition. Garrett Wilson, second most targets through three years in the history of the NFL, and no one to compete with him, and their head coach basically said, get him the ball as much as possible. That's their goal on offense, which has to be your goal. Breece Hall, Jason has talked about Breece Hall
Starting point is 00:47:55 for three years with different adjectives. Yeah, I think we've had a full traffic light with Jason talking about Breece. Red, yellow, green. I think it's more green, yellow, red. So look, I want to say this, it wasn't efficient or as effective or impressive on film last year, but you still ended up with a season as horrible as it was for the Jets where he still was the RB17, still can catch the football.
Starting point is 00:48:24 How intimidated are you by the third round draft price? I'm very intimidated by a third round draft price. I've got him as my running back 17, kind of replicating what he did last year, despite the fact that, I mean, you could see how it gets better for him. He comes more into the form that he was his sophomore year, more explosive plays.
Starting point is 00:48:45 And if that happens, he'll demand more utilization, he'll get the rock frequently. However, all of his fantasy goodness through his short career has really been propped up by the receiving game. It's his work as a pass catcher that is what we want the most, and I worry about that transitioning
Starting point is 00:49:08 from an Aaron Rodgers check down quarterback to Justin Fields, a scrambling quarterback, when it comes to the not play called, you know, screen pass to Breece Hall, but just the improvised, how many of those a game are going to go away from Breece? Total pass attempts if they wanna win defensively. Yeah, so I worry about Breeze from that. And then there's also talk about having
Starting point is 00:49:31 all of the running backs involved. You listen to Aaron Glenn and he's saying disgusting things for fantasy football. Like we have three starters at running back. Yeah, it started really nice for Braylon Allen. That's how we know he's lying, though. First four games Braylon Allen played, he was 4.8 a carry, it really slowed down,
Starting point is 00:49:51 you didn't get explosive plays, and the team was terrible. The wild thing is sophomore year, 14.9 points per game, running back four. For Brees? For Brees. Last year, 13.3 a game. game again I know that's 1.6 per week that adds up but it I think it's more of a the expectations of last year of him being drafted as he missed the game he did yeah that would have
Starting point is 00:50:20 he would have been higher that points per game Whitney no one total points for sure hopefully in points for gay but, in total points for sure. Hopefully in points per game. Sorry, in total points. He was like the top three running back two years ago. It's hard for me to remember that one. Two years ago, he was the running back four. Sorry, this past year, in 2024, you drafted him as? Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:50:40 His average draft position was first round for sure. So that's part of it, is he let you down on the ADP, but. Yeah, it was RB3 by ADP. Yeah, in actuality of a points per game, I mean. Jason talked about him on the Dynasty podcast that we released yesterday, so you can check that out if you want a more in-depth discussion, but that's kind of the biggest question marks
Starting point is 00:51:03 around the Jets. You're gonna have a new scheme, you're gonna have a new head coach, you can have some, you got a tough division. I mean, you're definitely at the bottom. I mean, you look at the Vegas odds in this division, they're like plus 1800 to win the division. It is a massive difference between New England and Miami and obviously Buffalo, the favorite. Speaking of New England, they are sitting there projected with a Vegas Wintle of eight and a half. Is that? I love it. I love it.
Starting point is 00:51:32 That can't be true. No, that absolutely should be true. Who's got an eight and a half? New England. No. That can't be right. No. That cannot be right.
Starting point is 00:51:42 That is true. It's eight and a half. Yeah, I mean. what? I'll take the over. What? I'm reading it and I'm like, no. Okay, so that puts them tied. You're taking the over, so you're in. I'm in on the Patriots this year. The Patriots are a nine plus win team. They won four last year. Yes. Their win total was four and a half last year. They won in week one and then lost six straight. Drake May took over in week six.
Starting point is 00:52:07 And this year is eight and a half. They do have the second easiest schedule. They're gonna need it. They, last year, were 31st in yards per game, 30th in points per game, but also had a defense that was 22nd in points per game allowed and 22nd in yards allowed. So it was bad on both sides of the ball.
Starting point is 00:52:24 You get Mike Vrabel coming in. The Gerard Mayo experiment lasted a year and Josh McDaniels makes his normal cycle around the Sun and he's back with New England for the third time I believe. You had Stefan Diggs who we don't know for sure will be back for week one but should be back at some point soon. Matt Collins is also a new wide receiver addition and they draft Chevion Henderson and Kyle Williams. So they have young talent, and they have, like we all like Drake May. I think Drake May was unheralded last year.
Starting point is 00:52:54 He played. No one did herald him. He played very well given his circumstances, his offensive line, or if you can call it that. The coaching, it was bad, and I thought he looked good. He showed enough in his rookie season to make me believe he can take that year two leap forward to becoming a true franchise quarterback. You pair him with a good head coach in Mike Vrabel,
Starting point is 00:53:18 who knows how to pull out games and win the close ones. This is why I'm a believer in the Patriots being, they're probably the team that I look at as, the question is always who goes from worst to first. I don't have them going worst first because of Buffalo, but they're one of the teams that you can just see the easy progression. There's always surprising teams where they're supposed to be trash, supposed to be one of the worst in the league,
Starting point is 00:53:42 and then all of a sudden they come out and they're like, oh, that's a pretty good team this year. I feel like that could be the Patriots here. I mean, if you look at the division, if the Dolphins collapse, which is very, very possible with Mike McDaniel's maybe his final year, if they collapse, the Patriots are second by default. Yeah. So, you know, it was really good for Vrabel in Tennessee for four years.
Starting point is 00:54:06 It was really kind of rough the last couple of seasons in Tennessee. But he may have the Doug Peterson effect arriving on and enlivening this team. I like what they did in the draft where they invested picks, not just in the skill positions, but on the offensive line. So yeah, I mean, eight and a half,
Starting point is 00:54:24 it says a lot about where that division is and what the offensive line. So yeah, I mean eight and a half, it says a lot about where that division is and what the expectations are. That is four more wins than they were projected to get last year and they, it's not like they went out and impressed last year. No, no they didn't. The offensive line I think should be, I mean they spent the number four pick in the draft on an offensive lineman to help protect Drake May and Mike, one of your favorite players. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:48 Look, I love Trevion Henderson. Yeah. That's going to help out of the back. Just to amplify your point, since 2015, at least one team every year that was drafting in the top 10 won their division or had 12 plus games next year. So it does happen. It never sounds logical or rational right now, but it happens every year.
Starting point is 00:55:11 The backfield, Chevion Henderson and Ramandre Stevenson. I think this one's gonna be tough. I know you love Chevion Henderson. I think he's a very talented player. I do not think the path for him to be a week in, week out fantasy relevant player is super easy. I get that Remondre is entrenched, he's the starter. You can make arguments for him of,
Starting point is 00:55:40 hey, they just gave him this extension last year, but they've made some changes. Really, the crux of the argument for Trevion Henderson is I think he is just, he is that much better than Ramondre Stevenson. Maybe we have Ramondre start off the first couple weeks as the guy, but I think sooner than later, it switches over, because Henderson is just,
Starting point is 00:56:04 the talent will put him on the field where Ramandre is just slow and lumbering and fumbles. It's hard, it's hard. See, that description of Ramandre I think is so, it's just a product of a really, really bad season. And obviously they needed to amplify more in that room. This was the dead last,
Starting point is 00:56:25 the worst offensive line in football last year, 32nd. The team won four games. Not conducive for a good running game. And like last off season, Ramon Dre got a giant contract and had a lot of excitement around him. So in that regard, it's just, I don't wanna swing the pendulum so far to where,
Starting point is 00:56:47 if they fix these other things that make them an eight and a half win team and make Drake May relevant, and you like Trayvon Henderson, Ramonter's gonna have more success in that offense. He could, it just, to me, this is the Rashad White, Bucky Irving of, and it's not apples to apples because Bucky was a late around pick, but it was, I think the starter is, he simply, he was the starter because he was the guy who happened to be there.
Starting point is 00:57:10 And the inefficiencies will continue to show as Henderson puts up big dynamic plays and then they make the switch. The one thing in Ramandre's favor is the fact that Henderson is a smaller, more undersized back and you would expect there to be a timeshare when you are paying a lot of money for another bigger body back like Ramondre Stevenson, you know, the round mound of touchdown. You're not really looking at Henderson being a three down every takeover type of thing. Correct. I don't see that happening. I mean mean it didn't even happen for Jameer Gibbs outside of when David Montgomery was injured
Starting point is 00:57:46 So yeah This is I think it'll be a split backfield and it'll probably be a split backfield for two years because they can't really get out Of his contract this year or next year for Ramon Dray. I would agree with you next year's next year's 3.25 I'm seeing his dead cap. So right now there are two rounds apart though Henderson is going two rounds ahead of Ramon Dre, which to me makes Ramon Dre a pinch your nose and draft in the ninth round. Yeah, I would not.
Starting point is 00:58:16 I probably won't be either. That would put him at, so in the career-worst season for him, he was still the RB 27 and still is at 10.6. Like he's been at 10.6 fancy points per game two straight years, so that part didn't change. I'm not saying he's explosive or exciting or fun. Probably just annoyingly productive for a late-round running back is my point.
Starting point is 00:58:38 Henderson is the future of this team, he's much more exciting, but I don't see any world that they just hand him the whole backfield. If Jason's, like if you're in on Jason's projection of like this team completely turns things around, then yes I could see that it could fall out that Ramandre is just annoyingly productive. You can't be, like the team can't be bad and Ramon Dre be productive. I don't think even annoyingly productive when you have Henderson waiting to try and take over.
Starting point is 00:59:11 All right, any final thoughts there, Jason, between? Yeah. I just wanted to see the schedule. My final thoughts are they play the Raiders, the Dolphins, the Panthers. Is this the opening schedule? They play Pittsburgh in week three. Yes, yes, yes. I'm just sayingins, the Panthers. Is this the opening schedule? They play Pittsburgh in week three. Yes, yes, yes.
Starting point is 00:59:26 I'm just saying they play the Panthers this year. They play the New Orleans Saints this year, the Tennessee Titans, the Cleveland Browns. Like they're the giants. Second easiest schedule. I mean, obviously, this is great. For hoping, I mean, Patriots fans out there, if you're hoping for something good,
Starting point is 00:59:46 you got it on the schedule. Do you have- That didn't tell me which guy that you- Which player I would rather have, I would much rather have Henderson over Ramandre from a fantasy standpoint. The seventh round is already late enough where I'm taking the shot of explosiveness.
Starting point is 01:00:00 I think things could get better for the Patriots, meaning more scoring opportunities for a mandrae I do think he's gonna be involved, but I also think his total workload will go down with a second round Travion was second round. Yeah. Yeah second round. How many touches do you have Travion projected for in the in the udk? Let me go pull that up While you do that I mentioned Kyle Williams drafted wide receiver, New England has a lot of potential, ran a 4-4, 5-11, 1-90, we like him. Stephon Diggs, still going to be a really important player I think for Drake Mays progression.
Starting point is 01:00:36 It's just when... I think it seems like right away. Yeah, we don't know because there's reports of he might have to start on the PUP. I mean, the timeline of when he tore his ACL, I don't remember what week it was, but guys returning from ACL, it seems like he should miss time at the beginning of the year. And we see videos of guys out there running, but running on grass while no one is hitting you is so much different than a full speed NFL game. I have Henderson,
Starting point is 01:01:07 because I have Henderson really taking the backfield. I got him at 194 carries and 55 targets. Yeah, I do think Stephon Diggs plays week one personally, and I've got Trevion Henderson at 165 rushing attempts and 47 targets. All right, well, I guess Antonio Gibson still plays for this team, huh? Still on their roster.
Starting point is 01:01:29 I think so. Yeah, he does. Wink. That was the wink sound? That was the, yeah, can't really just do that for an audio broadcast. Usually you go, pink. Yeah, that was really deep.
Starting point is 01:01:39 That was a deep wink. Like a cartoon sound effect. Wink, wink. Could I say it with a higher voice? Yes, try it. Yeah, Antonio Gibson plays for the Patriots. Wink. Like a cartoon sound effect, Jay. Wink. Could I say it with a higher voice? Yes, try it. Like, yeah, Antonio Gibson plays for the Patriots. Wink. Yeah, that's so much better.
Starting point is 01:01:50 That's so much better. Thank you guys, thank you. Wink. See, thank you. Oh, look at that. Good work, producers. So then, you like New England to break out, Jason. Yes.
Starting point is 01:02:00 You like Drake May? Drake May, to me, is another. He's my quarterback 12. Okay, then somebody has to matter in the passing game. I mean that would be- Josh Allen says that's incorrect. Yeah, Stephon Diggs and Kaishan Booty are the two that I have projected
Starting point is 01:02:18 as the highest in targets. What's wild is I don't think we even know who's gonna be on this team as a pass catcher I've seen gosh. I've seen so many I've seen reports that booties not even on the team that I can't Yeah, I mean the Mario the Mario Douglas is on the lock. Yeah, the Mary Williams is on the teams to find eggs is on Yeah, those are those are Matt Collins is on the team But I'm saying the three locks that I see consistently being reported is digs Kyle Williams Douglas Yeah, and then the rest of the spots are up for grabs.
Starting point is 01:02:48 If you, when Drake May took over and became the starter, if you look at how Booty was used, he was really, really involved. Yes. Down the stretch. So I would be surprised if he doesn't make the team. And Matt Collins. Jaylen Polk, last year's second rounder. He's gone.
Starting point is 01:03:04 Oh my goodness gracious. That's insane. I last year's second rounder. He's gone. Oh my goodness gracious. That's insane, I mean I gotta imagine he's gone. Mac Collins was a two year, $8.4 million contract. I was just looking that up. Mac should. He came over from Buffalo, he should be on that team. Mac is a good wide receiver. Yeah, he's good for Buffalo.
Starting point is 01:03:16 And he'll help on special teams. Yeah, and he should be there. And you're the level of T? Oh, super T. And you're team with Mac Collins? That's capital T for sure. You've got Kendrick. High T no shoes. Kendrick Bourne, John Baker. That's capital T for sure. You've got Kendrick- High T no shoes. Kendrick Bourne, John Baker,
Starting point is 01:03:28 there's so many wide receivers. Baker-Bourne, Booty, if it's a B name, you could get cut. Yeah. So to you though, I think Demario Douglas is just one of those players that's like, he's the Khalil Shakir of the offense. Exactly.
Starting point is 01:03:43 He's not gonna give you a huge ceiling, but if you need a spot start in a certain week, he's always gonna be on the field. He's the Khalil Shakir of the offense. He's not gonna give you a huge ceiling, but if you need a spot start in a certain week, he's always gonna be on the field. He's good, he's a good player. He's a good slot water receiver. He's a PPR type of guy that's gonna, you pray get to 10 yards of reception, but he'll be very targeted.
Starting point is 01:03:59 Any other shots in the passing game that you guys care about, Hunter Henry? I mean, Hunter Henry's a fun streaming tight end from time to time, but. Still gonna need the offensive line to be better than 32nd in the league. For sure. Which, I mean, that's gonna have to get proven out
Starting point is 01:04:13 on the field. If they're a bad offensive line, this team is going to hit their under on that win total. They will be a bad offensive line. They don't have enough personnel. I mean, obviously, Will Anderson being drafted at four overall, that will help. Will Campbell? I'm sorry, Will Campbell, yes.
Starting point is 01:04:29 How is he going to spin Will Anderson into this conversation? Will Anderson, Alabama superstar that the Cardinals should have drafted. But no, Will Campbell, the tackle, he'll help, but it reminds me a lot of the Texans last year where you had Laramie Tunsil, awesome, but then the rest of your line was such trash that you still had a bad line. Who wins the division? Buffalo.
Starting point is 01:04:53 All right, we all got Buffalo at the top. Give me the rest. You know I'm taking the Patriots second. Dolphins, Jets. I'm gonna go, which by the way, in case you're curious, Chalk! Oh! Is that chalk that's what that's chalk yeah, you're a chalk guy, okay? Well. It's different You're new from last year. Why don't you just pick whatever they did last year? What's your order Andy? It's tough to decide between Miami, New England. I think I'll go Buffalo Miami, New England, New York
Starting point is 01:05:21 Sure last year Miami, New England, New York. Chalk last year. I'm gonna go Buffalo, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots. I can't quit, Justin. Wait, hit that sound effect. What I can't quit is... There it is.
Starting point is 01:05:35 What I can't quit is a already great defense, and then you bring in a defensive guy. I'm not saying it's gonna be pretty to watch, but I think that they... You're saying they bring in a defensive guy, I'm not saying it's going to be pretty to watch, but I think that they... You're saying they bring in a defensive guy a head coach? Yeah. Replacing a defensive guy a head coach? A guy who actually I believe in. Okay. It's funny, they have what, three out of four in the division are defensive head coaches. McDermott's a defensive head coach. Yeah. Aaron Glenn now a defensive head coach. Mike Vrabel defensive head coach. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:06:06 Right? Yeah. So Mike McDaniels is really the cheese dance alone. Out of place. Yeah. And if you put those- Come on dude Mike you gotta do something in Miami. You can't make us offensive people look bad again. Rex Ryan's looking for a job. Oh! Alright.
Starting point is 01:06:22 Wait, wait you can play that sound for Rex Ryan with him. Oh yeah! That is that sound for Rex. Right. With them. Oh, yeah. That is the that is him smiling for sure. The light caressing off of the chompers is that what you're saying? Yeah. All right. I think that's going to wrap it up for today's divisional breakdown. But don't worry, three shows a week means we've got a show in just two days. And then we'll have another mock draft episode, I believe, coming up next Tuesday.
Starting point is 01:06:46 So we'll do another divisional breakdown, we'll do a mock draft, and we'll get back into the divisional shows as well. Check out the draft kit, it's the number one way to win at your draft. Make sure you're prepared, make sure you have a game plan, make sure you know what to do.
Starting point is 01:06:59 All of our Sleepers Breakouts, Busts and Values available in there, along with innumerable other resources to help you. There's so many. Help you handle your business on draft day. So that is going to do it for today. Shout out to Deucer's Alley. Everybody over there taking care of business. Thank you gentlemen. We'll be back with another episode on Saturday. Take care everybody. Goodbye. Goodbye.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.