Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - AFC East Breakdown + Scariest Picks - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/13

Episode Date: July 13, 2024

Risky draft picks plus AFC East preview on today’s fantasy football podcast! Is Josh Allen still THE top ranked QB? Is De’Von Achane worth an early round pick in fantasy football drafts? Bills, Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots on today’s show! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for July 13th, 2024. Intro - 0:00:00 Scariest Draft Picks - 0:04:15 AFC East Divisional Breakdown - 0:15:00 Buffalo Bills - 0:15:40 Miami Dolphins - 0:29:05 New York Jets - 0:39:50 New England Patriots - 0:50:25 Outro - 0:58:40 2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by McDonald's. Monopoly is back at McDonald's, everybody. This is an alert. It's time to get back to Mickey D's. Monopoly Double Play is back at McDonald's, and it's easy to get into the win. First, you peel on pack, and then again in the app. There are millions of prizes to be won,

including a new chance to win cash every minute in the app. Get into the game with Monopoly Double Play at McDonald's. While supplies last, one in five chances to win game piece prizes at outset, chances to win Double Play prizes based on time of code entry, and draw prizes based on number of entries in each draw. See rules in the app. Get a credit card annual fee waiver and earn C-plus points faster with the Scotiabank Ultimate Package and bank more entertainment. Learn more at scotiabank.com slash banking packages. Conditions apply. Scotiabank. You're richer than you think. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

Welcome in. Saturday episode. Jason Moore. We get crazy on the weekend, boys. Do we? What? Well, I do. I'm just saying. What do you have planned?

Well, listen to the episode. Find out. We get crazy on the weekend with our AFC East takes. That's right. That's right. No holds barred today. Okay. Well, I'll be curious to hear who you predict to win the division.

You're not curious who I predict to lose and finish last in the division? I'm not as curious about that. No. You're locked in for third, guys. Oh, you want to find out who we have? Jason's third place pick? I had Kyle do the math for last year. One point per correct prediction in each division.

I didn't know what the results were going to be, but you kind of know. I ended up winning last year's competition, so I have something to repeat. You did. It's competition. So I have something to repeat. You did. It's tough. It's tough to nail these down because there's a Houston every year. Yeah, and it won't be the Patriots. But I do think that whoever is number one in this division, I don't know your guys' rankings here, but it's very interesting,

a very tight division. We like to keep these competitive. And the truth is, on this show, when we do these divisional breakdowns, it's like I don't hear from people on Twitter about, oh, cool, you picked my team to win the division. I just hear from the fans of the team that has to end up at the bottom and how dumb we are. I think you only hear that when it's a top-to-bottom difficult division.

Like we didn't hear it with Tennessee. No, that's fair. I heard it about Cincinnati. We're not going't hear it with Tennessee. No, that's fair. I heard it about Cincinnati. We're not going to hear it with the Patriots. We're talking AFC East today. I'd like you to believe in the back of your mind that I might pick them to win the division. I just want you to think that.

Last year, Jason and I were apparently perfect in this division on the Buffalo-Miami-New York-New England order. So we'll see if that ends up being. You perfectly projected the demise of Aaron Rodgers then. Yeah, Jason and I had some inside information. Well, I was a little sad if you rewind the tape.

I was devastated by the interview. Oh, I know why, yeah. Yeah, because I believed Aaron Rodgers was already done. Like, from his final season in Green Bay. Yeah, you were predicting a subpar year, and now you didn't get to see it. Right. Well, I mean, it was a pretty bad year. Yeah, but a different kind of subpar.

Yes, yes. You wanted a selfish victory lap. Yeah, and I'm not going to victory lap on an injury, so. You're a man of principle. Yeah. It's funny because now I want to root for him just to come back from the injury. I don't think it's going to happen, but now that he had the devastating year. Wait, he's an underdog now, so you're on his side?

Yeah. Well, I am betting against the man, but I'm rooting for him. You could do that. I don't even know what that means. Yeah, but then you're like rooting against yourself to lose. That's tough. I mean, we're going to talk all about it. How does one do that?

I root for him to lose every day. A lot of therapy, Mike. UltimateDraftKid.com. Go check it out. Draft Analyzer live right now. And you can jump in there. Check out all of our tiered rankings and a ton of tools and resources get your team graded import your mock drafts see how you did this is the time

of year as well like obviously we've got our tiered rankings there that's how you want to draft is from tiers but this is the time of year where you you you know your draft probably isn't tomorrow and so you can watch all the player profile videos it It's like getting, you know, 100 more hours of this show just talking about every single player. It's a great way to prep. All right, quick question of the day before we jump into the AFC East divisional breakdown. I think it's a fun one.

As of right now, looking at where the landscape is in fantasy and where players are going, who's the player you're most scared to take? Who's the player you're most scared to draft? Yeah, Mike, go ahead. I will throw out Drake London because a great philosopher says all the time he was drafted to be great. I know that guy. And we have seen – it hasn't been nothing from Drake London.

Some guys at this point, I mean, look, Jamison Williams, we've really seen nothing. He's not Bershad Perryman. Right. Yeah. We have seen a handful of games where he really takes over. He has a huge performance. He's kind of like a reason that the offense succeeds

and then they win the game but we have also seen lots and lots of failure like he did not he barely surpassed 900 yards which he did miss a game but counting stats he was barely over 900 yards meanwhile Adam Thielen, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, they all managed to surpass 1,000 yards, and they were also dealing with really, really bad quarterback play. So the fact that we haven't seen it, and now it's in the – you're giving a second-round pick to get Drake London, which I think he's good, but you're betting on Kirk Cousins returning with the Achilles.

There's so much up in the air, and it's such an expensive pick for a guy where you feel like you haven't seen enough. To me, Garrett Wilson, yes, we're going to talk about the Jets, but I've seen enough from Garrett Wilson to go, that's a dude. Drake London, I'm like, I think so. It's interesting. I think so. So you're not necessarily willing to give him the free pass

some fantasy players are giving him on quarterback play. It reminds me of how we thought of DJ Moore for a little while and how we thought of Terry McLaurin for a little while. I mean, those are two really, really good players that we had seen in little flashes. Right. But everybody wanted to elevate them in the draft ADP. like for terry like dj more it finally happened dj or terry mclaurin we're still waiting for it to happen and like that's the path that drake london is on right now

jason who are you most afraid to draft mine is wild i mean this this should be like a wild card type of player. He gets crazy on the weekends. Yeah, I told you. Every single year, there seems like there is a player where you go, we should have seen this coming. We should have seen how great it was going to be. It was clear. It was obvious. A couple years ago,

we were just talking about, like, it was when Stafford came, and you have Stafford and McVay and Cooper Cup together, and you're like their ADPs were really low, and it was like after every time we'd do a mock draft or something, it'd be like, you know, this might just work. You know, this is just going to work because you've got McVay. And so there's a player out there that is just like when he has a monster,

unbelievable season and is a top three running back, you can look out there and go, of course, we should have seen this coming. I'm imagining that you'd make a very complicated, robust argument and never tell the audience the name, and we move on. I hope so. And they just sit there going, did he say it? Who was it?

Because the other side of the argument is at the end of the year, there's always like those players where it's like, we knew Alexander Madison. It's like, you know, that's not going to work. You bet I did. You bet I knew it wasn't going to work. It's just like, you know, like Zemir White this year. It's like, you can bet on him, but it's not going to work. You know, it just never works, those type of players.

And this is, I have the same fears. works those type of players and this is I have the same fears I still haven't said if I have the same exact fears of the same guy where it's like clearly this isn't gonna work and also obviously it's gonna be great it's Devon Achan yeah it's the itty-bitty running back who dominated NFL defenders last year if you had I had him on a bunch of rosters every time he touches the ball was like the defense can't handle this guy they can't catch up with him if he has any kind of crease he is gone he's in the perfect scheme fit and you have to spin for him in draft so it it stands the reason you'd be afraid to waste the pick I'm. So he's going right now as the running back eight.

Oh, my gosh. Which – I want – Ready to spend? But hold on. I just want to give you – So top ten, the top ten running backs, this was the average of opportunities it took.

Oh, let's hear it. Oh, no. 240 attempts. Okay. And 66 targets. That was the average? That's the average of the top 10. Now, look, I mean, you got Christian McCaffrey taking that thing to the limit,

but it's an average of the top 10, and he's being drafted as that. 306 opportunities. And Devon Achan's not the guy who needs 300 opportunities, obviously, because he was in – I was about to see his per-game average of opportunities. He finished top 24 last year with 100 attempts for 800 yards and 37 targets. So, what, about 140 opportunities? Yeah, if you look when he came –

It's 12.7 per game in the games he played. Did you take out the two games where he was like 5%? No, I didn't. Kyle said 15.1 opportunities in nine full games. Oh, there you go. So it's just, it will. Will he stay healthy and then that's 250? Will he get all those opportunities where he most or it's great?

At least it was last year. Will his body hold up to those opportunities? He does not need those opportunities. If he gets 250 opportunities, which was kind of what he was pacing as a rookie, he will absolutely return. It's will he stay healthy. And the thing is, is I want A-Chan on my roster. Like, I'm in.

I'm willing to pull the trigger. But I really want him as my second running back. And he's not. He's the RBA. You can't do it. So you've got to rely on a guy that is so dicey as your first running back off the board. It just feels fragile.

There was a time. That's because it is, Jason. There was a time that Austin Eckler felt that way, okay, to give you the, like, you know, should be obvious but wasn't obvious. And it's players that the running back position don't fill the prototypical mental image of what you have in a workhorse back and HN is that guy he's small yes but when you go and watch the film I went back and watched a bunch of highlights from Devon HN he bounces off a guy's great balance he doesn't he goes between the tackles it's not like he goes down on first contact.

There are attributes to the player, regardless of the size, that make you think. I mean, I can see your face. You're like, I'm back in. Yeah. No, I don't know if I'm in or out. I am just scared. So you'll be looking for him to drop.

You'll want to take advantage if other people are scared too. Yeah, I need to scare people off so that I can have them oh man because you love them i do i do but you love most are too i know you've talked about that this offseason at the value you love regime most yeah i mean the last year's running back to going in like what is it the eighth round or something yeah seems a little like the pendulum swung too far i'll take the low-hanging fruit that is almost an inverse of HN to me. HN, hyper-efficient, been banged up, lower opportunities. Hypo-efficient? Hyper.

Hyper. No, I'm saying what's the opposite, though. Oh, I see what you're saying. This is a thyroid joke? Yeah. I think it is. I think it's a hypo-efficient. It was just a passing comment shouldn't be analyzed just a little prefix joke come on that's the good stuff

that is the good why they listen thank you did i at least get it right josh jacobs don't check okay i will answer yes you did i knew it with. I think inefficient is the word you're looking for. Please be quiet, Al. Hypoefficient. We are trying to analyze these players. He was a-efficient. Josh Jacobs, should work, can work, great team, big money, feels scary. Because what you saw over the year last year was inefficiency.

47% of the time over 10.5 points, which is our metric for consistency for a running back. That's sub 50%, obviously not what you want if you're spinning a high pick. Ended with an injury, 3.5 a carry. Didn't look like the player that led the AFC in rushing the year before. So that's what defines a scary pick to me, is you go into the season not in love with last year's film, but in love with all the externals. At least when he went down, his backup, who had not really started any games, came in and looked terrible.

Not true. That is a strong ending for Zemir White. And there's some, you know, he was late to camp, Fat Thor. Fat Thor. I don't know if that was everything. It was a tough season. For the quarterback position, they rotated through. The fact that Fat Thor was just.

So he was hypo-efficient. Fat Thor was such a throwaway joke. Yeah, it shouldn't have worked, man. I was so mad at it, too, because I had Josh Jacobs, and I was like, stop it. Stop the fat Thor thing. I was like, he just negotiated a contract. He's not fat. He's not going to be slow.

And then I dressed up as Josh Jacobs for Halloween in a fat Thor costume. It kept on. It kept on. So, look, I know you agree that Josh Jacobs is kind of a terrifying pick. Yeah, he is. You know, there's a world, like he's already done it. He could be a top three running back. Yes.

He could get the kind of work on it. And what do we want? We want a team that's going to win ballgames, an offense that we like, a quarterback that we like. He's got all those. He's got A.J. Dillon behind him. We love that. Yeah.

Well, no. He's got Marshawn Lloyd behind him. Fair. We'll see if Dillon makes the team. Oh, how does that feel? How does that sentence feel? Hey, it feels bad. Well, it could have been. We'll take a quick break. We'll get into the AFC East.

A good prefix joke. That's what Mike is owning in on for 2024. That's what you got to look forward to. I've got a lot more lined up. Good. Stay tuned. Good. Let's get divisional.

All right. We are on our third divisional breakdown episode. We're in the AFC right now. We're looking at the AFC East. It's a fun division to talk about. A lot of very relevant fantasy football players to discuss. And as I've said on previous episodes, we're looking at some of the off-season changes for each of these teams,

players, rookies, coaches, schemes, how things went last year, how we see things transpiring this year. And ultimately, you know, we'll try to nail this division prediction-wise, but there are question marks. And we'll start with the team that has won four consecutive AFC East titles, the Buffalo Bills. And they still got it done last year. Miami, same record. Buffalo ends up

with the division title. They lost to the Chiefs. The struggle right now in Buffalo is like, is the clock, you know, is time running out for Buffalo on this championship window? Because the money that they're spending for Josh Allen is only going to continue to increase. His cap hit jumps from 30 to 60 next year. And his cap hit has already hurt the team, their defense. They've lost some pieces there for fantasy purposes. It's really, really interesting what's going to be necessary from this Buffalo Bills offense. They're going to need to put up even more points than ever

and they've got Josh Allen to do it. I didn't see anything that said he's going to slow down, but they lost so many weapons. They have the second most vacated targets in the league. I think there is a slight lack of confidence in the offense continuing to be the predictable provider of fantasy points that it has been in the past. Now last last year they're projected Vegas had them at 10.5 wins. They go 11-6. This year it's at 10.5 again. You know, they had the offensive coordinator change. That was a really key moment for this team where we saw Stephon Diggs

fade into irrelevance for an important part of your fantasy season, and they stopped throwing the football. I mean, with Ken Dorsey, for weeks, 1-10, yards a game, they were 7th, but they threw the ball the 13th most, 8th in points per game. Those numbers stuck. They were scoring a ton of points after the transition to Joe Brady, but the passing percentage dropped down to 31st in the league. It was the James Cook experience. A lot of plays per game.

They went six and one, they finished on a roll. And so is this a new identity? Like how predictive is, you know, a seven game sample when, you know, this team, they made investments in the, in the draft, bringing in Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel. Do you see a balance, or do you see them trying to run back what got them to 6-1 over the back half? I think you're going to see them try to run it back, especially when you look at what they did personnel-wise. Letting Stephon Diggs go.

They took Stephon Diggs from the focal point of this offense to a more ancillary, almost irrelevant piece of the offense during those last few games. They won those games. And then they said, Hey, let's, let's get more of this short area work. Uh, you know, Dalton Kincaid is going to step up. Curtis Samuel has worked with Joe Brady before. I think Curtis Samuel is the number one target, uh, in the wide receiver room here, uh, in 2024. And so I think they're going to try to do more of the same, which to me just means like the way that I statted out the bills, when I took a look at the changes, the splits last year, the personnel, I think this is going to be a running back and tight end team. I think they are going to have a lot of short passes, a lot of, you know, get the ball out

quick. And, you know, I'm in love with both James Cook and Dalton Kincaid, and I'm not really into most of the other pieces. Let me bring something up then because we've talked about the transition that Patrick Mahomes has made in Kansas City with the offense over the last few years. His average depth of target has changed tremendously. You just lost Stephon Diggs, who was a downfield threat, made big plays, 29% of targets. And then Gabe Davis, you know, yes, he can goose from here and there,

but 15% of targets caught a ton of touchdowns and big plays. Both those guys are out and it's hard to, like, if you tell me I'm subscribing to short area targets, like that hasn't translated to number one finishes for Mahomes. No. The offense has changed a lot. You don't have the over-the-top Tyree Kilst up there, so you have more variation in outcome for the quarterback.

Is that the extension, or do you just throw it out because Josh Allen can run the football? No, Josh Allen running is going to keep him up near the top. He's still finished as my, I guess in six point passing, he was my number two quarterback, but in four point leagues, he's still my number one and losing Gabe Davis. I've got to, I've got to give a shout out to this tweet. Ian Hart. It's just such a fun fact. Here's receiving touchdowns since 2020, including playoffs. The best of the best Gabe Davis Davis with 33, CeeDee Lamb with 33, Jamar Chase 32, and

Justin Jefferson 30. Say it again? Yeah. So Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, and CeeDee Lamb with 30, 32, and 33. They have fewer touchdowns than Gabe Davis? And Gabe Davis with 33, yes. But that's including playoffs. So it basically all came in that Kansas City game. Where he had 15

touchdowns in that game. Yeah, it's a wild, wild stat. So no Diggs, no Davis. That is 284 vacated targets by the Bills. That is the most associated with any quarterback drafted in the top five since 2018. That is a ton of vacated targets, nearly 300. Are you afraid, Mike? Are you afraid of the unknown here with the offensive changes?

My projections came out very unafraid, but the more that the offseason has been moving forward, Josh Allen is mobile, so it's not a fear of does he, like full-on Patrick Mahomes from last year where Mahomes ends up as the QB8, is incredibly disappointing for fantasy football. I don't see that happening. But yet, the stories of last year's Kansas City Chiefs,

where they really didn't have, there wasn't a wide receiver, at least, being drafted anywhere near the top of ADP. And that's where Buffalo is right now. Like Keon Coleman, with the data I'm seeing, is going as the wide receiver 45. So that's the first. But on top of that, like it's up to Dalton Kincaid now of Mahomes has Kelsey.

And despite the disappointing feelings of Travis Kelsey from last year because of the end of the season. He's number one. The season as a whole, Travis Kelsey was actually fantastic. So is there a player on this team that can fill the void? Because you still need, while the rushing will carry you, at least to have a really safe floor, you still need passing to take yourself to being an elite, like a top two guy. Well, we know this from Josh Allen, a rookie, right?

It was Stephon Diggs' arrival that launched him into number one every year. This is the first time ever that the QB won an ADP, has his wide receivers drafted outside the top 40 there you go but I am curious now I like Keon Coleman I liked him in the draft process the Bills liked him enough to make him a second round pick I'm curious if your sentiment around Josh Allen would be different if he if they had taken Xavier Worthy or they had taken Ladd McConkie players that you liked more in the pre-draft process yeah if they had been able to get their hands on someone, you know, like Brian Thomas Jr. Yeah, even Brian Thomas.

A first-rounder. They traded back a couple times. They could have taken Xavier Worthy. They said no. They traded back and got, you know, the consolation prize. And they say the nice things, and there's great press. I don't think that's what they called it, but all right. They've got, you know, good press conferences.

Keon Coleman, delightful guy. You are our number three choice. How does that feel? I mean, mean if you trade back that's who you wanted but go on um you know the the the words out of camp are not that great they're saying he's coming along a little bit slower or that not in those words they say he's still got a lot to learn he's you know we don't know how many positions he's going to be able to pick up. Yada, yada, yada. You're going to have a slow start, I think, to the rookie year for Keon Coleman. And my concern for Keon Coleman is, like, he projects to play, like, the X.

And I had a differing opinion of just Keon Coleman, the prospect coming in than Andy did. He wasn't really my favorite guy. He was too hot, too cold for me. And does he come in and is he now, for this offense, is he a rookie version of Gabe Davis? He's still the better bet to me than the

Curtis Samuel bet. Okay. And I know we'll disagree on that. That's fine. I think the better bet, if you have all your wide receivers going outside the top 40 and you want to bet on upside at that point in your draft, Curtis Samuel is going to be a pedestrian option for your fantasy roster. He just is. You're going to like Dalton Kincaid more than Curtis Samuel every week.

They're in the same area of the field. You're going to have to rely on gadgetry and things for Curtis Samuel. Look, we've been here with Curtis Samuel before yeah I mean Curtis Samuel will I I agree with what you're saying but Curtis Samuel will dominate his average draft position he'll beat it but he'll beat it to a point that's irrelevant that's why I agree he doesn't have the ceiling so if you want to take a shot I have no problem betting on you know the bigger body more athletic young guy with potential. A bigger body bet? A bigger body bet. That's what I would do. Personally, like I said

earlier, my bet is on Dalton Kincaid and on James Cook. I believe those two guys are going to have phenomenal seasons. I like the James Cook bet. We know that RB14 right now. A lot of picks behind Devon Achan that you mentioned earlier. Last year finished as the running back 11. And he was a huge part of the offensive philosophy shift. When they made the offensive coordinator change, that's when things really kicked into gear for James Cook.

He went from about 10 points a game to about 15, and his opportunities went up nearly five a game, and especially in the receiving game. And we know we've had an article that came out a few years ago. The Borgogon looked at – The what? The Borgogon. The Borgogon.

Vacated targets we want so badly to just take receiver, plug them into the vacated targets, and say, look how many they're going to get. Doesn't work that way. But in the study, we found that, well, actually, yes, they fill a void for targets, but the running backs often see an uptick in targets. So I have come around. I like the bet on James Cook, but Dalton Kincaid is –

it's tough because yes, the natural progression of the player, first round pick, he's a tight end, it takes some time. His season for a rookie tight end was actually fantastic. It's just being overshadowed by Sam Laporta.

But it's still hard to shake what happened as soon as his production really came when Dawson Knox was off the field, you were like, yeah, here we go, baby. Dalton Kincaid, we knew it all along. We've waited for it. Eight targets a game from week seven to ten, and then a couple weeks later, got an offensive shift,

and Dawson Knox comes back, and then the numbers go back down. Well, it shows you that because players, tight ends, it's a process to get to the 80%, 90% of snaps. It's a natural process. But then with Knox going out, it just forced it for a while. You saw how the production would be with that kind of a workload, and then it went back. So I would imagine we'd all have come into this year saying the snaps are going up. I think he has just as much potential to be in the Trey McBride conversation

as McBride does. I mean, it's a huge opportunity. Yeah, Josh Allen's a better quarterback than Kyler Murray, and Trey McBride can't be the number one target for Kyler. Marvin Harrison's going to be the number one target. Right now you're saying Kincaid's the guy. I'm saying Don Kincaid should or to be the number one target. Right now you're saying Kincaid's the guy. I'm saying Don Kincaid should or could be the number one target for Josh Allen and the Bills.

So I'm completely in on him, and he doesn't cost as much as trying to chase Laporta's double-digit rookie touchdowns. And then going back to James Cook, this is the running back 11 last season who's being drafted as the running back 14. Has way more opportunity. They relied on him more when this coordinator shift happened, and he only had two touchdowns last year.

There's no competition. He had two touchdowns. That's the problem with him. That's the problem with him, absolutely. But there's no way he plays 17 and doesn't get at least two, right? Yeah, you're saying that's the floor of the touchdown world and he still finished where he finished. Yeah, he was only behind McCaffrey and Brees Hall

in yards from scrimmage. Yeah, he's a good back. Yep. He's a little back. He is. But he's great, and I think we want to see it re-rolled. Arizona, Miami, Jacksonville, Baltimore to start the year. Oh.

By the way, Keon Coleman, one pick ahead of Ladd McConkie, Mr. Consolation Price. How do you feel about that? Teams make bad picks all the time. Okay, all right. But hold on, hold on. Arizona, Miami, Jacksonville? That's the first three weeks? Not too shabby.

In Miami. Yeah, Miami defense should be okay. They should be, but I feel like you're forced I'd be taking Miami in that game I'm not talking about that I'm talking about an offense that will put up points against the Bills oh you're liking the beginning for this team

for fantasy I'll take that Miami was 11-6 as well we'll move on and talk about them they had a projected win total of 9.5 last year. They're at 9.5 this year. So far, we're re-rolling. Vegas is re-rolling this division.

They played just six games last year against teams with a winning record. How'd they do? They were 1-5. And that became a storyline that we were watching for fantasy their only one was that win in week 16 against Dallas it's not great Bob I feel like we are

doing the same routine with Miami every year right now because we've had two exceptionally prolific starts of the year especially for Tua where he looked like a great fantasy pick and then things slowed down at times for Miami. But, you know, where are you with them?

Number one in points per game. You know the offense is going to work with McDaniels. They added Odell Beckham. They didn't lose anybody of significance over the offseason. You're re-rolling it. You get Waddle back healthier than he was last year i i will be honest my job is in football and i frequently forget that odell beckham signed to the miami dolphins i knew he signed and i still dropped him in dynasty i think this time next year we will say do you guys remember odell was on the dolphins last year that's how

it feels but but the big pieces like some offenses with predictability you love it when it's like miami yeah yes you know where you have you know tyreek and waddle you're done you're done talking about receiving options right yes you are i will i I think Malik Washington's name just needs to be thrown out there. He was a lower drafted wide receiver rookie coming in, but they got two of those guys this year in the draft. They drafted Jalen Wright, a speedster that fits this system. Running back. Running back. A little bit later in the draft, he was a day three pick. And Malik Washington. Those are two two sometimes pieces fit a team very well like A-Chan last year and I think those two guys do fit the mold so it's just worth noting keeping

your eye on maybe if you're in a deeper league a last pick or something like that I am in agreement like Malik Washington had one of my my prospect scores that I I look at that was like elite, like top of the charts. I mean, he fell in draft, so it's like, well, okay, we got to pay attention to that. But Puka had a very similar score in this metric and then fell in draft. And I'm not saying he's Puka Nakua, but I'm saying he is – he's not a player that is going to do anything if both of these guys are healthy,

but should Tyreek or Jalen Waddell miss time, that's going to be a fascinating watch. And not every draft pick is the same. You watch the draft reactions. This one was Mike McDaniel on the phone, the GM talking about how Mike McDaniel's been trying to get him to draft him for a couple rounds now, and McDaniel was pumped for this pick.

All the Odell fans upset about what you're saying right here and Odell's opportunity to be the next Chase Claypool of the Miami Dolphins. I think all the Odell fans are in New York, though, and they're fine with him not being good for the Dolphins. Where are you with Tua when it comes to making decisions for late-round draft picks at the quarterback position? I mean, Jason, you're making a face that says you don't want a piece of the Tua experience.

I mean, in best ball, I think he's a much better option simply because the variance, he was not very consistent. This running game is out of control sometimes. And so you can have – That's a funny way to put it, but it's true. Yeah, you can – I mean, put it this way. Who led the – am I correct that he led the NFL in passing yards last year? I believe Tua did.

4,624 yards, 560 attempts. See if that was number one. I believe he led the NFL in passing. You can't do better than that. His consistency score – He led the – yes, he led the nfl you don't know who's number two i do jared golf yeah baby those lions were awesome but my point is you can't ask much more from him and he had a consistency score of an f having 23 of his games last year he exceeded 20 points

that's just – This is a second straight year where if you drafted Tua and you played him for the first half of the year and then you traded him into Mike, it would have been a good decision. Yeah. Which is exactly what I – I mean, Mike, you traded for Tua from me because he was an MVP candidate and he was dominating for the first six weeks of the season.

Yeah, really needed a quarterback, and then it tanks my season. Yeah, you were not happy. You acted like I did it on purpose, like I told you to stop. You did. You were straight mad at Andy. You were mad. You're telling me you wouldn't have been mad? Of course I would have been. I didn't do nothing. It was Tua's fault.

I called him up and I said, yo, slow it down. And Andy got Dak? Off of the waiver. Yeah. Alright, I would have been mad. Yo, slow it down. And Andy got Dak? Off of the waiver. Wow. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right.

I would have been mad. So for Tua, he's going right now as the QB 13 on sleeper. Actually, one pick ahead of Jared Goff, so that's funny. But like Brock Purdy is ahead of Tua. So for a guy that can lead the league in passing yardage, to only have the 29 touchdowns on the 4,600 yards, I think that that's low. I think that there's a little bit margin for that to go up by a couple. And I think that Jalen Waddell is a huge part of this. Like Jalen Waddell's struggles, it's hard to really encapsulate them on a box score

where the guy was just – he was hurt all the time, you know, on and off the field. So playing and struggling through it wasn't anywhere close to the same player that we had seen before that. So I'm betting on Jalen Waddle to, assuming health of course, return to form and then it being not, you have the elite Tyreek Hill on one side and then you have a really good Jalen Waddell. No, you have an elite Tyreek Hill and then you have an up and coming elite wide receiver in Jalen Waddell who was just paid to be that as well. So I think that there is a world where Tua hits the 4,600 yards and he's at the 33 passing touchdowns,

which is I don't want to keep dumping on the C.J. Stroud draft pick, but it's like Tua, if you're telling me at the end of the year Tua has more yards and touchdowns than C.J. Stroud, I go, that's not a leap. You're like, yeah, that's fine. That's not weird. And yet Tua is being drafted as the quarterback 13, and Stroud is being drafted as the quarterback five.

And last year they had the fourth most games lost on the offensive line, which had a higher rated unit. They lost a starting guard this offseason. And keeping Tua upright has been a huge priority, but he has the weapons. Waddle, even in the games he played, played a smaller snap count than the year before. So he missed games, was injured, and then played a lower snap count because he was probably still injured in those games.

Yes, exactly, yes. So I know you love Waddle from a value perspective this year. Are you on board with the bounce back, Jay, for Waddle? Yeah, I do think Waddle has a bounce back. You joked around earlier about how two years in a row, if you had drafted Tua and traded him, it was awesome because he did start the season hot. Yeah, they have new plays at the beginning of the year that nobody knows. And then they get figured out I guess, but Miami's opening schedule is even better than

Buffalo's. You got home against jacksonville home against buffalo who's lost so many defensive pieces seattle and then home against tn tnc tnc yeehaw let me pop this tooth out real quick and give you that team name so um you know maybe you draft him and trade him a month in because it's not going to be consistent because of the running game that's the one that's speaking of which we already talked about Devon Achan yeah he's good draft him late he's going fall he's going as the RB8 Raheem Mostert the RB25. So the world is saying we expect the baton to be passed. This isn't back-to-back.

This isn't a committee situation where the expectation is Mostert can repeat this outlandish season touchdown-wise, which really you needed that, right? That's how he was vaulted to that level was. 20-plus touchdowns? Yeah, I mean, it was just, you know, there were games where he didn't have as many attempts, 11 attempts, 9 attempts, 10 attempts. But getting into the end zone,

having all those opportunities inside the five-yard line, it was kind of unbelievable. And yet they brought all the same people back. And you imagine that, you know, when you listen to Mike McDaniel's talk, it's, well, this is the leader of our running back group. Yes, and you should listen to those things. That's what makes the bet on HN so scary is it will be a timeshare.

Mostert is going to play. It always has been for him. Yeah, the baton, it can be passed That's fine, and it's Devon HN is the leader But he will be the leader Of a timeshare with Mostert And then, are you that Confident that when they get

When they're inside the two Or inside the five, are you that confident It will be HN getting the Majority of those That's where HN becomes a scary proposition. Dave hand the baton back and forth when they run

off the field. That's kind of how this offense works. It's weird. This is pretty much the only offense, I think, in the NFL where I'm fine with both running backs. I think both are going to have great seasons. I think the best comp for this is seasons. You saw this. I think the best comp for this is back in the day with Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones, where Thomas Jones was

getting a ton of touchdowns. Jamal Charles had a ton of touchdowns. He wasn't used inside the five. It was like he just ripped off long ones. He had seven receiving touchdowns. And that was the year with Jamal Charles was the number one running back in the NFL. That's the type of ceiling for Devon Achan is 12 long rushing touchdowns, seven receiving touchdowns, and all of a sudden he's the number one running back. All right, we will take another quick break and talk about a team that was, well, they didn't even get to start doing what they wanted to do last year. Alright, as we continue through the AFC East,

we reach the New York Jets. Oh boy. With the grittiest 7-10 season you've ever had, we all sat down Monday Night Football. They won seven games. And we said,

it begins. The Aaron Rodgers era in New York. Here we go. Runs out with the American flag. He was ready to go. The fans are excited and this is the future. Maybe that flag was too heavy.

It was like a pre-game tweak. And then it just wasn't prepped are excited, and this is the future. Maybe that flag was too heavy. You know what I mean? It was like a pregame tweak. Right. And then it just wasn't prepped because he's not usually doing that. That's a good point. He strained one leg a little bit too much. Let's just, Aaron, jog out this year. Can we look?

Just a casual jog out. Kyle, find out what hand he had the flag in. Was that the Achilles that he tore? Yeah. It's important. Go on. They were projected for a nine-and-a-half win. and was that the Achilles editor? Yeah, it's important. Go on. They were projected for nine and a half wins.

If he runs, dude, if week one he comes out running again with the flag. Trade him mid-game. Just unload. This was heartbreaking. It's too heavy. You two are very entertained. It's the drag. It's not aerodynamic. If you're an aged quarterback let someone else hold the flag is what

you're saying yeah they also have the same projected win total as they did last year that's crazy which is nine and a half they have an easy strength of schedule this is supposed to be the redemption year for Aaron Rodgers we know what the defense is like we know what Brees Hall is like I mean doesn't it all come down year for Aaron Rodgers. We know what the defense is like. We know what Brees Hall is like.

Doesn't it all come down to whether Aaron Rodgers is healthy and capable as the quarterback of this football team for how this season goes? Because if he's an above average quarterback, let me just put him at like the Kirk Cousins level quarterback. Oh, brother. Then this team is going to win a ton of football games, right?

Yes. They have an incredible wide receiver who we haven't seen the full potential of in Garrett Wilson because he hasn't had somebody give him the football. But this is soul make or break, and it feels like every bet you make on an offensive player when you draft them in fantasy for the Jets is a bet on Aaron Rodgers. It doesn't feel like you can escape that reality. Yeah, there's at least a break glass in case of an emergency

with Tyron Taylor, which is a significant backup upgrade this year. But you're still – He's always hurt too. I mean, every time he takes over as a backup, he gets hurt and you get the third string. Yeah. Who is this? Who's third string?

We're going to need that information. it's a rookie i believe but um yeah i mean it you know garrett wilson would be worse with tyrod taylor but honestly this is what is scary to me about drafting garrett wilson who is almost my you know who scares me to draft pick okay um just because i'm not as confident that Aaron Rodgers at age 40 off an Achilles tear will be great now can he manage the game and get wins absolutely I think he's going to be very good for the Jets if he's you know healthy how many passing touchdowns did they have last year I deleted it out of our show doc so you can't cheat but do you know the answer to this? Man, I'm going to guess 13. Mike, you want to take a shot? That's so low. And I'm high, I'm sure. I'm going to

go, let's go 11. It's 11. It's 11 passing touchdowns. How is that possible? It feels almost impossible. And 7 of the 11 were inside the 10, which means there were four passing touchdowns

that were outside the 10 yard line for a football team that plays 17 weeks. 29th in points per game. But it sets up pretty nicely this year schedule wise. Brees Hall

another year removed from the injury. We're all in love with the Brees Hall, another year removed from the injury. We're all in love with the Brees Hall potential for the season. I've got them ranked extremely high. Yeah, you've got to love that coming into the season, at least entering the season, the Jets have their offensive line is currently ranked fifth by PFF. We love that. They've made some big-time additions.

Signed two tackles, right? My question for Brees Hall is what will the amount of the receiving game truly be? Because 95 targets, that's not happening. If it did, then Brees Hall is far and away the number one fantasy football running back at the end of the year. But it was like the numbers got so juiced up by the end of the year where the Jets could do nothing offensively except just be terrified and throw it to Brees and beg him to do something for the team. So where do you guys think the receiving work, what's that line going to be at?

Yeah, that's a big deal. That's why I have him behind Bijan in my order because, you know, it's usually, okay, Christian McCaffrey's one. Then you got Bijan and Brees. Who do you want? And you can make a strong argument for either of them. He didn't play 50% of the snaps for the first month. After that point forward, he's actually on pace for 11 of them. He didn't play 50% of the snaps for the first month after that point forward. He's

actually on pace for 111 targets in the games that he was actually fully active of. But you're right. What was happening was that offensive line was so bad and the quarterback play was so bad, they would literally just snap the ball, let him through, and dump it over the line to him. It was their only thing they could do on offense

and sometimes it worked. This is a bet on better efficiency by the offense altogether. More touchdown opportunities. Yeah, it's a bet on Brees Hall being – I mean, he had weeks last year where we were like, what in the world is going on? Yeah. It's like two yards a carry. Everybody knew what was happening on every play.

Like, if the offense gets more efficient, he should be more efficient. You know, he doesn't have to be everything on every play for them if they have a quarterback that's competent, but he's going to have every opportunity to be a top five running back. I do have some numbers for you just so that I can throw these out here for Aaron Rodgers. The last 300-yard game by Aaron Rodgers was December 21, 2021. I'm okay with the Rodgers was

not good his last year in Green Bay. That's that wasn't his last was that his last? No, it wasn't his last year in Green Bay. I know, but I'm saying Rodgers like the Rodgers experience for fantasy is not yards. The last time that he was the quarterback one on any week was

October 20th, 2019, which was 1726 days ago. To be fair, that is an exceptionally high bar, but yes. I don't need him to be the QB one. Last three touchdown game was November of 2022. So, I mean, I'm just saying it's – That's not that bad. So, Mike, you felt like those stats said, yeah, baby. Well, the yardage, honestly, he's an efficiency monster

when it comes to throwing touchdowns. That's how he plays the game. But November of 22, you deleted the 23 season. I actually don't feel like that's that bad either. That's not the worst. Nice stat, Kyle. Al Borland, I am curious. You were a lifelong Packer fan.

You loved Aaron Rodgers. You saw the injury last year. What is the mental state right now? Are you rooting for him? Do you have loyalty that extends beyond the jersey? No. I've got as much loyalty as he does. Oh, get bodied.

Okay, Al with strong words. Yeah. Jordan Love's season has begun. I feel like Packers, which time will pass, the wounds will heal, and he'll be welcomed back. But right now I feel like Packers fans are like, who's Aaron Rodgers? Yeah. Yeah, and I would be saying that right now.

Al, how do you feel about Brett Favre? I love him. Okay, yeah. He'll come back to you. He will. Garrett Wilson, you talked about him. We talked about Brees Hall. The thing for Garrett Wilson is, similar to Drake Leonard,

it's a scary pick. He's the wide receiver eight, which is still somehow a first-round pick because it's so wide receiver heavy. But he is an electric player that if he gets average to above average quarterback play, he will return on that, but it feels fragile right now relying on Rodgers and Tyrod. Mike Williams, do we care?

Is it? Hold on. That was Mike Williams with a question mark at the end of his name. Well, it's a couple weeks into July here. I think this is the first time Mike Williams' name has made it onto the podcast in this year. Other than maybe like he's working off to the side in some camp. I mean, he's 29 years old. It gives him – I mean, they didn't have great options on the outside. They have a true X if Mike Williams

is healthy. That's a big if. Yeah, as an outside wide receiver older coming off of an ACL, you usually want to bet against that for fantasy. Now, what was the contract? Was it a one year? Yeah. One year,

$10 million. That reminds me of when Beckham was tossed onto the baltimore ravens last year man yeah i don't i don't think mike williams is going to be an impact player for fantasy or for the jets garrett wilson will tyler conklin will be involved that's what i was going to ask you is like if rogers is decent you give me another name outside of garrett wilson in the receiving game maybe breeze hall will have 90 Maybe. I mean, because if we don't love Mike Williams, he's probably not going to be high volume no matter what.

What do they have? Xavier Gibson? Yep. And they drafted Malachi Corley. But I really think they're going to use him as a gadget screen guy. The new kickoff rules. Kickoff returns, yep. They have to go on the road and play San Francisco in week one.

That's a bummer. But then they get Tennessee, New England, Denver, and Minnesota. That's a lot better. We said fourth easiest schedule. It's going to be a very exciting year. Please let us just watch it. Let us watch Aaron Rodgers on the field. Stay healthy.

It's better to have the storyline with him there. Like, that's what I felt when he went down was like, this was going to be something fun every week to be entertained by, good or bad. All the primetime games, you know what I mean? For just cause, and they were all ruined. That's not fair to the people. We do have another team that plays in this division.

They owned this division for, what, for what two decades yeah it stopped in 2020 new england was 4 and 13 last year the belichick era is over they were 29th in points per game um they had 13 total pass plays inside the 10 which was the fewest of any team since 2018 that stat is that. No way. I read it and I was like, I shouldn't read this out loud because there's no way that's right. That's insane. Their projected win total last year was

7.5. This year, do you know where it is? I'm guessing 4.5. 4.5 wins out of 17 weeks. They also have the second hardest strength to schedule. That doesn't seem fair. They also have Jacoby Brissett schedule. That doesn't seem fair. They also have Jacoby Brissett and maybe eventually

Drake May at quarterback. Didn't score a lot of points last year. Probably going to score more this year. Possibly going to score more this year. Thank you. That was a very nice change. The division is just brutal. This is like being tossed into

the AFC North, which we just went over that has four competitive teams, and then just not being at that stage of your development where you can do it. Yeah, you've got a bad setup for offense. Rookie quarterbacks aren't usually great for fantasy. Rookie quarterbacks are almost always

bad for the receiving options. Eventually, Drake May will take the field. This is a team that's projected to win four and a half games. Jacoby Bursette is not coming in here and going to have them seven and one through eight weeks and hold off the rookie. So that means the majority of the season will be Drake May. He has set up a little bit for failure with his wide receiver room. A lot of names you know, but not a lot of names you want. I mean, unless some of these rookies, if Jalen Polk has a great season, a breakout, you know, looks more like an Ancor on Bolden, okay, there's hope there. There's avenues where you could talk yourself into it. But the majority of these wide receivers, they're all wide receiver threes in the NFL.

I don't even think they have a wide receiver two. I think Jalen Polk can become that. But as a rookie, he's more of like what should be an NFL team's wide receiver three. Fantasy value on the roster will be the difficult situation for fantasy managers in the draft you you always bring a a c a 4 and 13 season into the next season's draft it always happens that's why houston players were in you know way down the adp board last year it's going to happen in new england you've got remandre

stevenson who just got paid and and we're in there i yeah i mean that's that's the only degree he's a rb22 right now yeah i'll bet he beats that i think he but not he's not going to smoke that you know this is like running back 18 so it's like okay if you if you need a running back two and you're in the sixth maybe even seventh round uh you know he'll he'll fall there then that's a that's a fine pick. Is that it? Is there a world where that's it? There is definitely a world where that's it. I would say the probable world is that's it.

There are cases you can make for Antonio Gibson or Hunter Henry or Demario Douglas. Maybe he steps up. But probably that's it. Romandre Stephenson, check out. I think I've gone through the full cycle of trying to be optimistic about this roster and then realizing that it's probably not going to happen. And then when you look at the opening schedule,

you're going to beat Cincinnati in Cincinnati in week one? No. You're going to beat Seattle? I mean, that's – At home? Maybe. You're going to go to New York and you're going to go to San Francisco. So one in three is probably your best case scenario to start the Gerard Mayo era?

Yeah, I was going to say it looks to me like Drake May will be starting week five. Do you think that the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills fans, how many years of this do they need to feel better about what they went through? At least a decade. You've got to go through. A full 10 years? Yeah, you've got to have 10 years to where you just don't really remember anymore. Okay.

Yeah, the projected win total, four and a half in a tough schedule. So they're underdogs in every game this year based on Vegas lines. I think the most interesting thing about this team, if I'm like, what are the cool storylines? What is interesting? What am I fascinated to find out? I am just fascinated to find out which wide receivers make the roster. It's just there's so many.

There are so many wide receivers here, and they can't all make the roster. Well, and it's like I see Jalen Polk and Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne and Javon Baker and then they got KJ Osborne. Don't forget about Juju. Juju's there and then Thornton. Oh yeah, second round pick. He may not. No, I mean, most of these guys won't be there, but it's

like, it's just... You want to try to predict this division? I do. This one is tough. Oh, it's easy for me. Okay, it's not tough. Go ahead. You want me to go first?

Yeah. Dolphins win the division. I think they've got the best roster on both sides of the field. Bills are going to be second. The Jets, great defense. I don't believe in the offensive weapons. Patriots last. I have the Jets winning the division.

Okay. And when you look at the – Spicy. It's not that spicy. They won seven games, dude. They are the second highest odds to win the division. They have higher odds to win the division than Miami does. Ooh, I need to go to Miami.

So, you know, then I have Buffalo – or I'm sorry, I got the Jets, then Miami, then Buffalo, then New England. So, I just made the bet. I just sent Josh Allen out in Dynasty. And so I'm going to follow that through with how I see the, you know, it was one thing to switch the offense like they did over the back half of the year and have some success. It's another thing running it from the top without the stability of Stephon

Diggs. Like, I know he wasn't involved that much. He's still running routes. He's still part of the defensive. Yeah, that's true. Like, I know he wasn't involved that much. He's still running routes. He's still part of the defensive. Yeah, that's true. Like, I don't think he's going to – Keon Coleman's not getting the same kind of coverage that Stefan Diggs is getting.

They're going to bring some, you know, linebackers up. They're going to be able to watch that running game. The hardest part for me was Bills versus Jets. Like, I feel like the – At the top. The way that I look at it is like, okay, the Patriots are last. I think the Dolphins will win. Got it.

I just couldn't go back and forth. But when I thought about the seven wins for the Jets, four of them were against Tommy DeVito, Sam Howell, Bailey Zappi, and Russell Wilson. So it was like, okay, you can win those. They can win them again. They can. They've got a great defense.

Yeah. So, Mike, where are you going? They also beat Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts and C.J defense. Yeah. So, Mike, where are you going? They also beat Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts and CJ Stroud. Oh, man. Selective. It was very selective because it was right after the shutout. I'm going to go.

I think the Bills will stay at the top. Then I'll take the Jets, Dolphins, Patriots. Sorry. That is three very different. Well, not the Patriots. The Patriots are right where they're going to finish. For the – it's just is Drake May the guy? If Drake May is the guy, then they will figure it out really quick.

I definitely think it will be a very fun division to watch. I think Drake May is the storyline that I'm most excited to see in New England. But, you know, we've been surprised. We've been surprised quite a bit with the turnover in the division. It's just injuries are a big part of it. I mean, the Jets' story last year is different on one injury, right? And there's a lot of questions to be answered. Yeah, and obviously when these teams go from worst to first,

it is oftentimes the biggest deal is the quarterback. I think none of us would have ever projected last year that the Houston Texans finished first in the division and are awesome because we didn't think rookie C.J. Stroud would come in and be that good. And so Drake May has got a lot of talent. If Drake May comes in and is Justin Herbert, then the Patriots aren't going to look bad.

The Patriots have a very good defense. I think Gerard May is going to do great things there. I think it's just a very tough division to come in and do it in year one. All right, on Tuesday we have the AFC West, so we'll wrap up the AFC divisional breakdowns. Thursday we'll take a break between the two conferences. And we'll mock draft, Jason. Mock-a-lock-a-ding-dong.

Oh, mock-a-lock-a-ding-dong. And then we'll jump into the NFC after that. So if you want to follow the show over on X at the FFBallers, follow Jason at JasonFFL, Mike at FFHitman. I'm at Andy Holloway. And you can always watch the show over on YouTube, youtube.com slash the fantasyantasyfootballer. Subscribe, click the bell over there.

That'll do it for us today. But there'll be another show, I promise. Very, very soon. Goodbye, everybody. See ya. See ya. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com

and follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.