Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - AFC North Breakdown + Draft Discounts - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/9
Episode Date: July 9, 2024Let’s get divisional! On today’s fantasy football podcast, a breakdown of the AFC North division! Get the fantasy outlook for the Ravens, Browns, Steelers, and Bengals! Plus, a discussion about ta...rgeting a rushing QB or a high-powered stack in fantasy football drafts. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. -- Fantasy Football Podcast for July 9th, 2024. Intro - 0:00:00 Rushing QB or Stack? - 0:06:48 AFC North Breakdown - 0:13:10 Baltimore Ravens - 0:13:12 Cleveland Browns - 0:24:45 Pittsburgh Steelers - 0:37:20 Cincinnati Bengals - 0:48:12 2024 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Check it out at ultimatedraftkit.com. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore,
and Mike Wright.
Welcome in.
The Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
Tuesday, July 9th.
Just a regular, ordinary day at the office.
Regular day.
Nothing different to see here.
Nope.
Just a normal day sitting here hosting the show.
All right.
I'm on the other side of the desk.
If you're watching at home.
Because life is funny sometimes. and um yeah you know i'm i'm just i wanted to try something new on for size oh all right this side of the day i wanted to see the view
from over here it's pretty great it's not bad um no for those that are listening everything's the
same for those that are watching on youtube i am in. For those that are watching on YouTube, I am in Mike's seat.
Mike is in my seat.
For the normal, ordinary reason that I knocked one of my teeth out.
Yes.
And I'm just vain enough to not want to put it on display for the entire show.
And it's not just like a tooth hidden in the back.
You know what I mean?
Oh, yeah, that's fine. And it's not even one of the bottom teeth the back. You know what I mean? Oh, yeah, that's fine.
And it's not even one of the bottom teeth.
No.
It's one of the big eyes.
And so originally I didn't even think I was going to do the show
because I just didn't have the heart.
Yeah.
And I also know that if I have a missing tooth,
that I could be in the middle of an amazing analytical argument
about a player that I'm obviously right about. And right smack dab in the middle of an amazing analytical argument about a player that I'm obviously right about.
Right.
And right smack dab in the middle of that argument, there's no way either of you can take me seriously when you see this.
Or the Foot Clan.
They can't watch you give a take and think that you know what you're talking about.
Like, I'm taking one for the team here.
Yeah, because your angle right now is right at it.
I can see it, and it's great. And, yeah, look, imagine Mater from the Cars movies,
and then a little worse.
Well, yeah.
Just a little bit worse.
I mean, don't do that to Mater.
He's got all his teeth.
He does technically have all of his teeth.
Yeah, they're just gappy.
Why a 40-year-old man just breaks a tooth off?
Yeah, no normal stuff.
Nobody knows why.
Yeah.
Don't talk back to me again, brother.
I mean, Jason slugged me after we talked about Ayuk and Debo from years ago, and he just
walloped me in the face.
Yeah.
So I decided I'm going to sit on the other side and hide from you out there on YouTube,
which normally right now I'd be turning towards the camera, and I can't do it.
No, no you can't.
I cannot do it.
We'll see.
This should only take a few months to fix.
Also, it sounds to me, one, silver lining, not in a lot of pain.
Two, I can drink through a straw with my mouth closed.
Yeah, that's awesome.
Three, no, there's only two.
Those are the only two that I got.
You could try slurping spaghetti through the hole.
I already told you I was rinsing my mouth out after I brushed my teeth yesterday
and shot water right out my mouth.
I mean, just this shouldn't be happening to me.
You do cool tricks in the pool.
This is so stupid yeah i do
oh you remembered oh yeah look if you grew up in anywhere they had a pool when the when the teeth
came out for those front teeth you definitely did the uh i'm a water fountain see the thing is is
at this stage of my life there's not like a third set on the way there's not like another one coming
in behind it i gotta figure this thing out oh and my f sound really weird to me in my own head yeah but you guys think i sound okay so
they sound fine that's all my son keeps doing to me by the way my son just keeps going you know
doing the lisp all day long but i'm here all of us are. We are breaking down the divisions.
What do we have?
Eight divisional breakdown episodes on the way. Any news
that happens? We don't have a lot of news today other than
the fact that
Dak Prescott had a boot and then he didn't
have a boot and he's not hurt.
Yeah, it was a very short-lived
injured Dak season.
It was about a week.
Yeah, so it was freaky in the beginning,
but he's fine.
Jason mentioned it at the top,
the Ultimate Draft Kit.
It's available right now on app on the web.
You can go get it,
ultimatedraftkit.com.
You can get the UDK.
You can get the UDK Plus,
get the draft analyzer,
break down your team,
get a grade,
see all of our rankings,
been making some tweaks and changes
every single day.
And there you go. And i look i already don't like what you guys are doing i don't like what you're doing what no one's doing nothing is that is that al borland yeah conniving yeah he's
just realized look he thinks he can bribe his way to the solo cam and show off my papa josh is about
as cheap as a person can be oh yeah honestly him and al are he's cheaper than al but those are the
two cheapest people i know honestly 50 or so of our lunch conversations turn into us with a wild
idea of like just ridiculous and then we go wait a minute josh how much it was like we were talking uh yeah defining
baldness which papa josh is extremely bald but he could do the the skull hit the hit the little
deucer cam but i don't have a i don't have a button to change oh they took yeah you do there
you go okay see how bald he is and it was like okay but he can grow the size so how much for him
over the course of a year to grow a skullet?
And it's a number that will shock you that he's willing to do it.
Yeah, he will always – he's willing to embarrass himself on the cheap.
And so Al's over there trying to figure out a way to –
Yeah, Al's going to figure it out.
Yeah, I mean, it might happen.
All right, quick question of the day from Brayden.
We'll talk fantasy today.
I believe Kyler Murray – this is from Brayden in Michigan. I believe Kyler Murray, this is from Braden in Michigan, I believe Kyler
Murray is the best fantasy asset
compared to Brock Purdy.
Or the better fantasy asset.
However, if Brandon
Ayuk is already on my roster, is it worth
grabbing the stack instead with Brock
Purdy? I guess, simply put,
what is the better advantage? A running quarterback
or the stack?
So, Kylerler we've been
talking about for a while he just he kind of right now is the absolute apex when when it comes to
upside and getting quarterback value like i love anthony richardson i think that he can finish as
the number one quarterback i don't know that kyler can do number one, but Kyler can easily finish in the top five,
and he is being drafted in the seventh round as the QB8.
He has a fantastic value right now.
So I would still be taking Kyler because I want the guy who has top five upside.
Brock Purdy will probably surprise yet again.
He's being drafted as the QB12.
But, I mean, we now have like a year and a half of Brock Purdy.
We don't have the two full years as a starter.
But just him in the system with Shanahan,
he throws touchdowns at a very high level.
His percentage of attempts that turn into touchdowns is very high.
He finished as the QB 6 this past year.
So I think that Purdy will
outperform, but it's, but getting into that top five, maybe even top three, Kyler's the one who
can do it where Brock Purdy cannot. So I think for your team, it's, it's better to go with Kyler.
And there's, there's values to having a stack, but that doesn't mean that that's in lieu of,
of, of, of running quarterback. You know what I mean? If you wanted to take Marvin Harrison Jr.,
you can do that to stack with Kyler still.
Kyler's at a really, really good value.
It's not like the difference between a seventh-round pick
and a ninth-round pick that Brock Purdy costs you.
You're not really saving some incredible asset in the seventh round saying hey I'm gonna
I'm gonna wait a little later um and I'm gonna get a great seventh round pick that's just I would
rather have the better quarterback which is Kyler yeah you want the most points every week Kyler
scores more points every week then that's better than a stack it's not like you get bonus points
for having two teammates um sometimes you get the correlation where a big game can help
you, but if Kyler scores 30 that
week and Brock scores 25,
it doesn't help you.
Yeah, it's interesting where they're going
right now. I made a very big
blockbuster
dynasty trade. In fact, on this
show, I think I was mocking
the fact that I've never waited so long
for somebody to decide on
a trade. I'd sent this thing through. It was like two weeks of waiting. And it was legit. They were
legit thinking about this trade. But my old dynasty team-
With no picks.
With no picks for the next three years chose this year to trade Josh Allen for Kyler in a first-round pick.
And historically, you have done well with this type of a maneuver.
I believe you had Patrick Mahomes, and you traded him for Herbert in a first
right before Herbert broke out, and it was like,
I don't even know who you'd rather have between Mahomes and Herbert,
and then you got a first.
And then you turned around and sold Herbert for another young quarterback
or for Josh Allen in a pick.
You know, you can do these things at the right time,
and Kyler's value is low right now where him plus a pick next year,
Kyler will be seen among the better quarterbacks.
It is an interesting year for Josh Allen in general with the receiving core.
It's not like, I mean, we all have him ranked number one.
I'd certainly rather have him on my roster,
but the value proposition right now for a team with no picks in Dynasty,
I think it's there to go and get Kyler.
And Purdy inherently has the risks that any pocket quarterback has.
So quarterback six could become quarterback 13, right?
Because you can just have – Mike talked about the efficiency
throwing touchdowns.
You know, that is not necessarily something that repeats all the time.
And so the variability is very high there, whereas if Kyler's on the field,
you know, we've seen him as the quarterback, what, two before
in terms of over the stretch of a season?
For context of the league average for touchdown attempts or attempts turning into touchdowns,
it sits at about 4.5% or so league-wide.
And Brock Purdy was 7.6 two years ago and 7% this past year.
So I will bet that Brock Purdy will have another efficient year like this,
but if that drops to 6% or 5.5%, 6%, then it's probably not enough.
I just looked left to try to figure out the time of the show.
Ah, yeah, we've got a clock over there that lets
you know. But it's to the right now.
That's funny.
Be careful. And then Brock Purdy also
People are going to be Zapruder filming these things.
Oh, yeah.
You're a hockey player.
The efficiency of Brock Purdy, if it comes down
just a smidge, you've got to worry about
the total attempts. You're talking about how many
touchdowns per attempt. If you want to know who threw the ball the fewest times in the entire
NFL last year it was the 49ers so that I mean they didn't even crack 500 attempts which is
wildly low for 2024 all right um so we're in agreement then that you like Kyler over Purdy
at that stage of the draft now if Kyler's price goes up, there could be some buzz around the McBride-Harrison in-camp.
They brought in Zay Jones.
They have some weapons on offense that people like, Connor.
If Kyler's a fifth-round pick and Purdy's a ninth-round pick,
does that change the discussion enough?
Richardson's in the fifth, right?
Yeah.
Yeah, it would change it a lot.
It's just unbelievable how much Jason's avoiding looking this direction.
Not on purpose.
All right, here we go.
Into the breakdown.
Breakdown.
Let's get divisional.
All right, we are going to begin with the AFC North.
Big boy.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah, this division is wild.
And we'll be looking at offseason changes, players, coaches, rookies.
We'll look at what last season's offenses were like,
how they might function this year,
and then give some takes on our win totals,
who could win the division.
Do we normally make early predictions on these episodes?
Yeah, usually we'll-
Throughout divisional winners.
Yep.
Not that I want to look back,
but I assume I've always had them right.
Yeah, don't look back.
Yeah, don't worry about it.
Okay.
Baltimore won the division 13-4.
Cleveland 11-6.
Pittsburgh 10-7 because, of course.
And then Cincinnati at 9-8.
So every team about 500.
First time since 1935.
Prepping for the show, I was blown away when I saw that the Steelers won 10 games.
Just remembering that last year's...
Felt like they lost about 40.
Yeah, I mean, they weren't a very good team and they won 10 games tomlin you and yeah in division they were five
and one right the best what i mean they were a good team the best in division of the best division
in football how good were they this is the first time since 1935 1935
where you had an entire
division finish with a winning record.
Stats are nice. We've got to share it twice.
Baltimore 13-4
lost to the Chiefs
in the AFC title game.
Last year they had a projected win total of
10.5 this year.
Yeah, 10.5 last year.
This year it's at 10.5.
Opened at 11.5.
They have a hard strength to schedule for 2024.
So we spent so much of last offseason.
Let's get this out of the way.
Talking about Todd Monken and the offense and throwing the football
and all of the positives, negatives, and in between,
I guess it was mostly positives in the offseason hype.
But now that the season's
in the bag, we got to
witness Zay
Flowers' rookie season
and then them
figure things out at running back throughout
the year with the Gus Buss
and the injury to Dobbins and such.
What was your
overall reaction to the Baltimore Ravens
offense? I think it was overhyped, but it did deliver on it. Like we wanted so much more than
we even received. We were so greedy with wanting this passing game to be super electric. It was
still the best in a lot of ways. It was the best Lamar has played,
you know, his passing percentage and a lot of metrics were really, really good across the board.
From a fantasy perspective, he was the quarterback four, which was the best he'd been in, you know,
the previous three years. So it was really, really good. But, you know, this wasn't a fantasy
football game breaking team like you hoped with Monk and coming over.
But year two in this system, it should take a small step forward.
I do have a lot of worries about the offensive line.
I don't think enough has been made about the Ravens.
You get Derrick Henry. It's great.
And it's like, oh, Derrick Henry finally gets to go play for a team with a good line.
It's like, nope, nope. No, he doesn't because they had a good line last year.
They do not this year. They lost, I think, three of their starters.
And, you know, so you worry.
But year two in the system, Derrick Henry is still an upgrade over, you know,
Gus Edwards and Justice Hill.
The team feels a little weird to me.
I mean, last year, the numbers in terms of what they put up on offense
didn't match the fantasy football experience with Dobbins' injury,
with Mark Andrews' injury.
Lamar went at 32 in last year's draft so that was the quarterback four so you know Lamar had a good
season Zay Flowers was a value as the wide receiver 42 but not I guess just for what they
did on offense it doesn't feel like they made as much of a contribution to the fantasy world. Yeah, I
can see that, but I'm with Jason that
I have some excitement of
year two
and
look, it can take guys some time to
acclimate to an offense, but
to finish as the quarterback for
while
Jay said the highest
completion percentage of his career,
he was at eight yards an attempt.
We didn't get the super Madden football numbers on the ground
where it was 821 rushing yards compared to the 1,200 and the 1,000
in those back-to-back years.
And even when you compare the 821 yards this year in 16 games to last year in 12
games 764 I think that there's there's room that that goes back up for Lamar uh so I think that
he's he's appropriately going in drafts for what he can give you and with all the risks that he
carries he only had three games of 70-plus rushing yards last year.
We didn't see as many ceiling rushing games, not as many design runs.
So that's something to pay attention to as his career goes on.
Henry, like you said, last year we were going into the season
with them as the fifth-ranked offensive line.
This year going in as PFF's 25th ranked as they lost
Zeitler and Moses
and Simpson. That just means more
scrambling. Go, go!
Yeah, you know,
I don't know. I don't know how I
feel. It's a very difficult division with a very difficult
schedule with an older
running back. You know, this is a team
that has been dealing with
carousel at the position of running back you know this is a team that has been dealing with carousel at the position
of running back and uh henry's health will play a big part in how the season goes because we're
going to be right back if anything happens to him like you don't justice hill and the waiver wire
and that you know they'll be signing more veterans again. Yeah, more than likely. Rasheed Ali is there as well.
But for Derrick Henry, you can't argue with what has happened
to the offensive line, but Baltimore, just like Pittsburgh,
it's one of those teams that you believe in the franchise,
you believe that double-digit wins should happen for them.
They'll be contending for the division.
And then for Derrick Henry specifically,
a good friend of the show, Scott Barrett, had recently sent a tweet out talking about Derrick Henry's splits in wins and losses, which we all know.
Yeah, we brought it up a lot.
But it's like, here's the actual numbers. In wins from 2018 to 2023, Derrick Henry has averaged
over 20 fantasy points per week
and then 12 in a loss.
And if this is a team that is winning more than they're losing,
that's humongous for what Derrick Henry will bring.
One of the things that we didn't get a lot of last year was Mark Andrews,
obviously, with the injury.
Isaiah Likely was involved towards the back half of the season.
Andrews made it back for the playoff game.
But before the injury, he was on pace for 81, 984, and 11.
I'm looking at this schedule to start the year for Baltimore,
and it's brutal defensively what they're going up against.
They're going to be in Kansas City to kick off the season.
They're going to face the Las Vegas defense, which ended the year on fire.
Then they're going to go into Dallas against the Dallas defense.
Then they're going to play Buffalo's defense.
Yeah.
So that is like,
we try not to overemphasize strength of schedule over the course of the
whole year,
but we do pay attention to this to the top of the year when you're making a
difference,
you know,
a decision in your draft about a player like Lamar.
Is that as intimidating to you as it is to me, those first four matchups?
It's not great, Bob, but it'll be all right for who Lamar is
and the fact that, yeah, these are pretty high-powered defenses,
but that's a lot of really high-powered offenses that could force.
You could force some shootout opportunities here too.
I brought up the fact that Zay Flowers might be a bust compared to his ADP. but you could force some shootout opportunities here too.
I brought up the fact that Zay Flowers might be a bust compared to his ADP a couple weeks ago.
I saw the feedback.
People were very, very unhappy.
Yeah.
Strong disagreement.
And we talked about the fact that he has so many downfield targets,
so many behind-the-line-of-scrimmage targets.
There were only a handful of players like that, the Rondell Moore style.
A lot of people's feedback was that they just believe Zay Flowers
is a complete player that's going to make a huge step forward,
and you look at the wide receiver room,
and he has to be a go-to receiver for them.
Yeah, it's a good thing to point out how good he is, right? I don't think you're...
Which I was not. I didn't think he was a bad player.
No, right. Exactly. He's a very good player. He's also very young in the sense that going into year
two, you expect him to take a step forward. He will be the number one wide receiver for this team,
but he might not be the number one pass catcher because Mark Andrews is still the guy. I know
we've got name fatigue with him and he's been injured a couple
times over the last couple of years.
So he's let fantasy football managers down.
But this is the main pass catcher in the offense.
And you see that in the splits with Mark Andrews on the field,
without Mark Andrews on the field.
It was a different world.
22% of the targets with Mark Andrews on the field.
That's for Zay Flowers.
When Mark Andrews was gone, it was up at 28.
That's a huge difference for fans. What is his
ADP right now?
Zay Flowers? Zay Flowers, I'm sorry.
Top of the fifth, wide receiver 25.
Okay.
Yeah, that's right on the edge for me
because Zay Flowers last year with Andrews
missing time was the wide receiver 30.
So, you know, 25 seems doable if the season goes the right way,
if he can get into the end zone.
I'm in agreement that his ADP, I don't like it,
but he is such a difficult archetype of successful rookie, year two,
still the number one guy.
To bet against that is – those are signs that we look for,
but I think that in between, reading in between the lines,
there's enough for me to believe that I'm willing to be wrong with Zay Flowers
is how I'm going to approach it.
All right, one last thing I want to look at before we move on in the division is just, uh, where's Lamar's current ADP?
I'm seeing him at 39 overall. QB three. Is that what we got? I'm seeing QB four. Okay.
Which is what he was. He was drafted as the QB four last year. He's up three.
No, he's down. He's down from last year's ADP from what I'm seeing. Do you have that up?
We normally have that in the show doc here. I just don't see it for Lamar.
I think it's a tie.
From where he was going last year?
No, I'm saying a tie between Lamar and Mahomes are tied.
Okay. It'll be interesting with that beginning season schedule. We'll take a break. We'll come
back with more of this ferocious AFC North.
All right, moving on from Baltimore.
We're going into the 11-6 Cleveland Browns,
who lost to the Texans in the wild card round.
They managed to outperform their win total from last year, which was 9.5.
Got to 11, despite four different quarterbacks taking snaps.
This year, they're-
Or because of it.
You know what I mean?
Getting Flacco in there, winning some games.
It's not a bad point this year their projected win total is eight and a half down a game they have a very difficult
strength of schedule third hardest in the league they also have a healthy Deshaun Watson to start
the year so it was a weird season for Cleveland. They dealt with major
injuries at the quarterback position.
Nick Chubb
off the field had the excitement at the end
of the year for fantasy with Joe Flacco
and Amari Cooper.
The big game in what? Semifinal
week?
But last year they were ninth
in points for a game, sixth in pace of play.
Number one in yards for a game in terms of the defense.
So if you take and you look at that Lamar schedule that I told you to begin the year, right, and then you mix in the fact that none of those –
they got to play Cleveland's number one ranked defense two times, right?
Then they got to play the Steelers a couple times in division.
These teams normally kind of eat themselves
right but last year they all ended up above 500 beating other teams you know cleveland is a team
that i i do believe in i think i've been pretty vocal about that this offseason i think kevin
safanski is an outstanding coach i think what he did last year was coach the year worthy in
overcoming like who's the linchpin of your entire offense?
You know, this would be like, you know, back in the Tennessee,
when Tennessee was winning ballgames and you lose Derrick Henry
and then you lose Ryan Tannehill and then you go 11-6
and you make the playoffs.
Nick Chubb was the centerpiece of what they did.
He pieced it together.
Their defense obviously held them up.
They added Jerry Judy this offseason, which I know in the fantasy world,
that's not been a fun ride.
In the real life world, it's not been a fun ride,
but he's still a young, talented player.
Jerry Judy is a –
I like that you separated them and you're like,
well, I did separate them and then I decided –
but no, he's a better player, I think, in reality,
than he has been for fantasy.
Yeah, but he's been a disappointment in both.
Yes, it's more in fantasy because of the expectations.
Yeah, and if you compare him to Elijah Moore,
he's going to look real good, both in fantasy and in the real world.
I guess that's my point, is that he's going to help their team.
I do believe that.
He should be a help to their team. He's not someone that I think we would recommend drafting.
You look at the games that Deshaun Watson played. It's funny because we went into last season going,
I really don't know what to make of this passing game because we don't know what to make of Deshaun
Watson. And now we have no new information. It's like he played a handful of games, got injured, looked good. Some games looked awful. Some games is the shoulder fine. You know, I'm more focused on the,
the other pieces because I'm, I'm not going to, I'm not going to push my chips in on Deshaun
Watson. I don't think I need to. Uh, but when it comes to Amari Cooper, David Njoku, those,
those are two important pieces for fantasy where you've got to you know pick your poison do
you believe in both of them they obviously both showed out last year they were they were very
very good you watch the film and you say hey these guys are great hey so how do you mother for me
uh these guys are great players and so now it's just candace on watson getting them the ball a
bet on them is a bet on watson to some degree And, you know, Watson, 11 total starts the last two years,
five top 12 finishes in those starts.
His completion rate has been terrible in Cleveland
compared to what it was in Houston.
He has been running the football.
And the PFF grade on their line coming into the season, at least, is fourth.
Yeah, they have majorly improved it, so maybe that'll help Watson.
What we saw with Watson on the field last year was what he's been his whole career.
He'll scramble around.
He'll run a little bit.
He's not like Flacco, who's just going to get the ball and get it out quick,
and that really helped David Njoku.
He'll hold on to the ball and push the ball down the field to Amari Cooper.
When you have those five full games with Cooper,
he had a 17-game pace of 1,600 yards and seven touchdowns,
whereas David Njoku with Deshaun Watson had a 17-game pace of 600 yards
and three touchdowns, much worse in his splits with Flacco.
And I worry about, like I think Njoku showed that he needs to be
an integral part of this offense.
But I also think some of it is the play style of Watson,
who doesn't fit as well with the tight end position here
as he does with pushing the ball downfield.
Look, I think if you don't want to bet on Watson,
that is a prerogative of yours in fantasy.
Like, that's fine.
I think if you don't want to have to have your chips in on him being successful and you just don't want to deal
with it, that's a logical conclusion. I just don't think we saw very much. I think the samples are
small. And then when he did play, he also played injured at times last year. We have a new offensive
coordinator in Ken Dorsey coming over. He's talked about the scheme changing to be something
where they open it up a little bit more, throw the ball downfield.
Cooper does it better than anyone down there.
Jerry Judy can get downfield, and Njoku can get into the seam
and get downfield as well.
He talked about Cam's MVPCs, and he talked about Josh Allen's development.
Dorsey did in his introductory press conference.
And look,
you just have to... You have no choice if you're Cleveland to aspire
to those
goals of getting this offense rolling because their
defense is so good that if Watson
was 80% of
his former self, this is a team
that will win 11 games or more this year again.
Because they did
it on the... They won games with Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
They won games with – what's the other guy I'm forgetting about?
Other than Flacco.
There was another.
And who was there?
It was a P.J. Walker.
Was it Walker?
Walker.
It was, right?
Yeah, it was P.J. Walker.
I mean, they won games with bad quarterback play beyond Watson last year.
Oh, guys. And the guy who had
Scott was got a plan.
Jeff Driscoll. Wait, so was it five?
Yeah. It was five. Five
quarterbacks. Excuse me.
Coach of the year, Kevin Stefanski.
So, no Flacco
as a backup this year.
And they added
Deontay, or I'm sorry, they added Jerry Judy
to the offense.
Jameis Winston's the new backup there, so you get the same thing as Flacco.
If Watson goes down, you might be plus in the fantasy world.
And they did.
So the running back room is worth a pretty big discussion of Nick Chubb,
the catastrophic knee injury in week two,
the same knee that he had exploded also as a collegiate athlete.
So, I mean, it's sad.
It sucks. It's unfortunate.
But the team did keep him on board, so he's doing all the rehab stuff with them.
We're seeing more and more video.
I am – look, Nick Chubb is going in the back of the eighth,
running back 29.
I am more of the approach of I'm just betting against him,
and Jerome Ford, who is the presumed starter,
is going in the 11th round, at least presumed by me,
week one, and he's the RB41.
And last year, he looked like he belonged on a football
field he was a lunch pay a running back he'd show up and get the work done exactly so it's like it
he was not inept he was he was very capable i mean he was a top 24 running back 11 times like this
he gave you really good production off the waiver wire. So I look for that to continue.
But where are you guys making bets anywhere on Nick Chubb,
drafting any exposure to him?
I am betting against Nick Chubb.
I'm with you, Mike.
I'm going to take the side of history, age, the specific injury.
You know, sometimes later in a career career a guy's just built different and Adrian
Peterson comes back as the number one running back and if a guy could do that it's Nick Chubb
yes but I'm still gonna bet against it because the only example we have really is that Adrian
Peterson of like the late career incredible first year back from and that was more of a simple ACL
this was a pretty catastrophic injury where when it first happened, we were like, will he play again? Now he's looking good. And I think ADP wise, he'll continue to rise as we get
closer, unless it's official that he's like going to be put on the pup. But the more videos that you
see of him working out, you're going to be more in. They brought in Deonta Foreman, but also keep
in mind, they lost Kareem Hunt here. That was 4% percent of their targets 26 percent of their carries and nine rushing touchdowns was you know kareem hunt so i'm i'm in on ford in those double
digit rounds uh so judy in the 12th thumbs up or thumbs down no thank you ask me judy in the 17th
no because you're gonna say no I think Judy's gonna be very involved
Jason are you just
are you just mad at him
yes he was like
yes he is
you loved him
how about now
I'm in on Njoku at his ADP
I'm in on
I'm in on
not Watson not Chubb.
Ford is fine as a flyer.
And this is a weird team because they're probably going to win a lot of ballgames.
Yeah.
But you're going to have to piece together the running back room,
receivers outside of Cooper, and then the bet on Njoku.
Look, he's one of my favorite options because he's an eighth-round pick.
So when you get towards the end, I'd rather have him
and the chance that the form we saw at the end of last year,
you get some of that than I would just going in on a basement guy
like a Dalton Schultz or, you know, somebody else.
It will be super frustrating if they don't continue using him
the way that they finished.
Cedric Tillman, by the way, should be a starting outside wide receiver
if you're looking in deeper leagues.
Yeah.
He's going to be outside along with Amari Cooper
with Jerry Judy in the slot.
Mike, you said that like I shouldn't have said it.
No, no, no.
Trust me.
I think it's always worth mentioning these auxiliary guys.
For this team and their makeup,
that seems like a really long shot.
On top of that, year one,
we try to see some peripheral numbers
like targets per route run and yards
per route run, and they were both atrocious
for Cedric Tillman.
It's not a very inspiring
profile. I heard tarts.
Do you like a good morning tart?
Like a pop tart? Yeah, I like a pop tart.
Yeah, if that counts as a tart, I'm in.
Brown sugar.
Don't come at me.
Brown sugar's number one?
Oh, yeah.
Who's coming at you for taking the unanimous number one?
Yeah, probably like strawberry people.
Strawberry's fine.
Blueberry's fine.
Brown sugar's...
They're all good, but brown sugar's the best that's
the only one i don't like whoa yeah i know i know but uh you wouldn't eat that i mean don't hear
what i'm not saying i would eat that do you go are you a popped or an unpopped man wait so usually
yeah i know what he's saying toasted oh yeah that's called popped toasted why do you think
they call it a pop tart because it pops no it pops out. No, I get it.
I get it.
A toaster tart.
It's not.
Toasted, greater sign untoasted, but also longer to mouth.
And that's the problem.
So oftentimes what I'll do, you know, pro move.
You open that package.
There's two in there.
You pop one in the toaster.
You toast one and you eat one?
And I eat one right away.
I'm a toasted all the time, man.
Eat while you wait, baby.
And you butter that toasted Pop-Tart when it comes out.
And if you don't, I've upgraded your life.
You butter it.
Oh, yeah.
Yes, sir.
I opened up.
Well.
What's this thing running, like 750 calories?
Who cares?
I opened up a can here, Mike.
Wow.
It's a box.
Do you butter your donuts?
No.
That's ridiculous.
They're fried.
All right.
Pittsburgh, 10-7.
We talked about it.
Lost to Buffalo in the wild card round.
Was projected to win eight and a half games.
Of course, they outkicked that.
Eight and a half is the
win total this year we are rebuilding the quarterback position we're taking another
shot at it because last year this was the 25th slowest or the 25th in pace of play
28th in points per game 25th in total yard 30th in passing percentage
13 total passing touchdowns on the year wow wow dead last in win yeah team yeah they only threw
13 touchdowns that seems impossible dead last in neutral pass rate 31st and explosive pass plays
they were hard to watch and won 10 games brutal yeah it was brutal and you even had
struggles early season struggles by Najee
Harris and the call for Jalen Warren to be more involved and quarterbacks like Kenny Pickett and
Mason Rudolph trading off opportunities they lose Deontay Johnson this offseason who was a stalwart
in the wide receiver room I'm sure he I mean he's probably like cool I mean this team didn't pass
and okay they got Arthur Smith now yeah now. Yeah, they picked up Arthur Smith.
Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, discount opportunities at the quarterback position
for the Steelers.
They added a couple of, you know, I would say better quarterbacks than they had
on the Chiefs.
Yes, for as fun and easy as it is
to just take cheap shots
at Russell Wilson, he's a better quarterback than
what they had. And I do feel like
the Pittsburgh fans are
ferocious, proud,
all the things you should be. Well, they got those
towels. You should be proud. And they're terrible.
If you have this franchise, you
should be very proud of your franchise.
But I think sometimes it gets lost that there is this,
like, yes, they were 10-7.
So they want me to get on here and say, you're amazing.
You're the best team.
We are a fantasy football show.
We watch every game.
You hurt us physically when you made us watch you play football last year.
So they were not fun to
watch you shook your head with the wins and they're not going to be fun to watch again
that's where is that where you're at yeah 100 this is a team you're saying and not me yeah
and no they're not going to be fun to watch uh russell wilson was not fun to watch last year
but they'll win games just like they did last year, which means that becomes a little bit more difficult for a switch at quarterback.
You know, I've been of the mindset that I think Justin Fields has talent
that needs to be molded, and if he's at a good franchise
and given the opportunity, I think he can do special stuff.
But the truth is Russell Wilson's the starter.
He's beating him, you know him so far in the early camps.
He's been the better player.
And they have made it very clear that Russell Wilson is the starter.
And then they can have a competition down the line.
If they win games, Russ isn't going to be replaced.
And they can win games without throwing a bunch of touchdowns.
One of the other frustrating offenses to watch last year was the Atlanta Falcons
run by Arthur Smith.
No three wide receiver sets. Get the tight
ends on the field and
run the ball a ton.
You're going to have that here. It's going to be
boring and successful.
Not for fantasy though.
26 touchdowns. That's what Russell
Wilson did last year in
Denver. That would be double the passing touchdowns in Pittsburgh
if he could pull that off.
He'll do it without Deontay Johnson.
That's a lot better.
He'll have Roman Wilson, a rookie wide receiver,
getting involved on the other side of George Pickens,
who I think is primed for a great season with the upgrade at quarterback.
He did so much with so little last year.
George Pickens, you know, I think we all really like the draft price right now.
I like him.
I think he's primed for a true breakout campaign,
eight targets per game last year when Deontay Johnson was off the field.
That's a nice baseline.
And just the way that the Arthur system I expected to run is like Roman.
I like Roman Wilson, the player.
I think that like his career, he will have a good career.
I think it was a good draft pick.
But he's not one of the rookie wide receivers that I'm targeting in redraft uh we've seen some Steelers I would say the most of Steelers rookie wide receivers take some time before they really get acclimated into becoming a go-to part of the
team and you just have so many of of Arthur's plays being the two wide receiver sets.
And he's still a rookie, and while it's kind of laughable to think about Van Jefferson as a starting wide receiver, someone like that, a veteran,
I think will play in front of Roman for the majority of the season.
I think you could be right.
I think Roman Wilson will need some time.
And I don't want to draft Van Jefferson.
No.
And Cordero Patterson is there,
so who knows what tricks Arthur has up his sleeves for him.
We'll talk running backs momentarily.
I'll just mention Pickens.
The cumulative stats last year were great on what opportunities he had.
The week-to-week experience was awful.
He was a D consistency. 35% of the
time he was giving you a good week.
If you caught one of those weeks, you probably won it
because they were huge, but
you're looking for consistency from George Pickens
this year. They obviously believe in him
having Deontay Johnson shipped off to Carolina.
The last part of the conversation is going to be Najee Harris,
Jalen Warren, and the running game.
Something that Arthur Smith,
even though he picked personnel that we didn't always like,
was very successful with.
They're coming into the season with a much higher-graded offensive line
than they did last year.
They drafted offensive line.
If you are a Najee Harris, Jalen Warren manager,
are you going to be singing Arthur Sith's praises?
Probably not.
I'll bet it's a frustrating combination,
and Cordero Patterson will be used.
I mean, he was used on the goal line ahead of Bijan Robinson
sometimes last year, so it will get frustrating.
I do think where Najee is going,
and you could make the same exact argument for Warren,
who's going around the same spot, they're okay draft picks. This is going to be a team that wins. I like Najee is going and you could make the same exact argument for Warren who's you know going around the same spot they're okay draft picks this is going to be a team that like Najee
it's going to be a team that wins games that is running out the clock that improve their offensive
line so yeah Najee is fine this isn't a sexy pick that's going to be a top five I like Warren more
two rounds later just because of explosiveness yeah I mean I just feel like they're very equal
in their fantasy production that I'm expecting this year and I feel like I could get a discount
on Warren but I I've heard you guys both say you like Najee a lot so I feel like I still think
Najee is going to get the majority of the opportunities and if that's the case you know
especially if you get you're looking at this archetype of someone that can get goal line
opportunities I think when you get down in the red zone, he'll be more valuable for fantasy.
Obviously, reception is worth more,
and so if they think Warren is the better pass catcher
and he is in on those plays, then yeah, sure.
It was 53% of snaps for Najee last year, 48% for Warren.
So Najee had the advantage. You're right about the goal line.
The passing game, probably more Warren, more explosiveness from Warren.
I just like the discount, but maybe at that point in the draft,
you know, seventh, ninth round,
maybe the difference is not moving the needle for you.
Yeah, well, one last thing I want to bring up,
going back to Van Jefferson potentially being that two,
you know, that second wide receiver and two wide receiver sets.
I just, this is just fascinating to me.
And maybe you guys saw this, felt it, and this isn't surprising at all.
Allen Robinson.
Yeah.
Played 17 games last year for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Allen Robinson played 72% of the offensive snaps.
This was a guy on the field all the time that is very surprising i mean yeah well you're saying that because he didn't get 300 yards i mean
they are fine having a wide receiver out there to uh block and help the run game and slow things
down and so yeah roman wilson i i hate your take because I think it's right.
I love Roman Wilson.
And I think he's going to come along slow and they're going to leave Van Jefferson out there.
Fryermuth?
I like Fryermuth.
If you have completely punted, like ADP-wise, if I'm remembering right it feels like David Njoku is the kind of the
the end of where I feel like this player should be involved the Muth is going in the 11th tight
end 16 so he's just like you if you punt I think that he is an okay target he's the number two
target in this offense I mean I I think it, I think it'll be clear that he is
the second target behind
George Pickens. It's not going to be Van Jefferson
and probably not going to be Roman Wilson.
Allen Robinson ran more routes for this team
than Debo Samuel ran last year.
Exactly.
What in the world?
Yeah, that was
a tough team to watch. We'll take a break. Come back with the Bengals.
What do you think Allen Robinson is doing right now?
Running.
Just sprints.
Just wind sprints.
Just preparing.
He's got to be in good, good cardio shape.
I'll bet he does a lot of push-ups too.
He's not on a roster, right? All the blocking.
I think he is.
Is he on a roster, right? All the blocking. I think he is. Is he on a roster?
I do.
Kyle?
I know you follow him closely.
He's a giant.
No, he's not.
Yeah.
No, he's huge.
It's just, he is a monster.
Yeah, he's in there.
He's a giant.
And that's, he's like, what?
That's a team he could make.
I know, that's what I'm saying.
That's a team he could make.
He looked out there at all the NFL rostersters yeah all right which one could i make the cut oh gosh look at the giants let me go there oh man the fall of alan robinson was so insanely fast
precipitous yes like it was this guy is going to be an elite fantasy player for years.
And no.
He fooled Sean McVay.
I will always remember that.
He fooled Sean McVay.
He sure did.
Ipso facto, he fooled me.
He sure did.
I mean, he played at 29 last year.
You guys remember Mike Evans, my guy?
That's who I like to remember.
That's good.
All right. Cincinnati, nine and eight last year they had an 11 and a half win total injury to their starting quarterback uh
undermine that ends up nine and eight still a lot of fight from this team. This year, the projected win total, 10.5, which that's –
is that tied with Cleveland?
No, no, it's ahead of Cleveland.
So right now, in order of the win totals in Vegas,
you have Baltimore and Cincinnati tied at 10.5,
and then what, Cleveland at 9.5, Pittsburgh at 8.5.
All right, getting back to
how it worked out last year
they made it work
on offense Jake Browning took over for Joe Burrow
a lot of short targets
lowest ADOT in the NFL
slow pace of play
you know they
got it working but it just wasn't what we expected from this team
because without Joe Burrow, you're just not the same.
They do get a better strength of schedule this year
because they get a fourth-place schedule.
Are you expecting just a bounce-back type of season from Cincinnati?
No more Joe Mixon, obviously, in the running game,
but with, you know with the guy behind center.
I would say yes.
I would put it in the expecting.
Joe Burrow still has it.
This team, it was so strange last year.
You would have these games of Jamar Chase.
It felt like every target
jamar chase was getting was was at the line or behind the line of scrimmage and they were just
saying please jamar chase do something make a play yeah i mean they were so depleted of t higgins
being banged up and missing games and not having a franchise quarterback so they it's it they were doing the best that they could with what they had.
And to have that level of success, and now you're currently sitting at,
or you will be back to full strength, I should say.
So I would, yes, I would expect it.
Yeah, I mean, this is just, if Joe Burrow's wrist is fine,
I think this is a massive bounce back.
I believe that the weapons here are undervalued. And I mean that almost across the board. I think this is a massive bounce back. I believe that the weapons here are
undervalued. And I mean that almost across the board. I think T. Higgins is undervalued.
You can't really, I mean, when Chase is in the first round, okay, but he could be the wide
receiver one. I think he's in that discussion and he's not really. It's Seedy and Tyreek.
And Joe Burrow has been great. You got to, Joe Burrow tore up his calf in training camp last year
and barely made it back to the field for week one.
Joe Burrow played two months of football.
Listen to this.
The first month of football, coming back off that calf injury,
here was his 17-game pace over that first month.
He would have thrown 3,000 yards and rushed for 12.
12.
You don't think there was a calf problem there? That's a 17,
not an average per game. For 12 yards? He would have rushed for 12 yards over 17 games on that
average over the first month. He was getting rid of the ball. Yeah, because he didn't look right.
But then the second month when that calf actually healed, he was on pace for 5,000 passing yards,
265 rushing yards. It was Joe Burrow that we're used to seeing.
And so you're getting a discount right now on the fact that he was injured
and looked bad through injury last year.
But the two previous years, this is a guy, you know, you talk about pocket passers,
and you're like, well, you've got to throw for 4,500 yards,
and you've got to throw for near 35 touchdowns.
It's really hard to do, you know, betting on that.
Well, both the previous two seasons he basically did that.
4,634 two years before, and 4,475 and 35 touchdowns the previous season.
So I think one of the interesting things about Baltimore is,
or I'm sorry about Cincinnati.
Let's talk about Baltimore again.
Speaking of golf.
I think one of the interesting things about Cincinnati is they may be
the most primed for fantasy football value in the division.
Yes.
And I think they're going to finish dead last in the division.
Really?
That's where I'm at.
I think they are the perfect makeup.
You're talking about a division right now where they were 24th in points per game, given up. 31st in yards per game, given up. They were
a terrible defense last year. They're in a division where Pittsburgh was 7th in points per game.
Cleveland was number one in yards per game. Baltimore was number one in points per game,
6th in yards per game. You're talking about three of the best defenses in football, and then you have the Cincinnati
Bengals defense.
And I'm saying that as a positive for fantasy.
We know what this is like.
We know that it's one of the reasons why we saw a lot of excitement and success when Kansas
City's defense wasn't as good as it used to be.
Yeah, that was great.
And Cincinnati's a situation where I think they're going to give up a lot of points,
which means that Burrow, Higgins, Chase, whoever they figure out at running back,
Chase Brown, Zach Moss, and even Mike Gesicki, Jermaine Burton,
as a kind of deep, deep flyer as a rookie with no Tyler Boyd.
I think that they are primed for fantasy opportunities,
but I don't think that they are going to compete in this division.
I don't.
I think they will.
I think they won't.
Well, the sportsbooks think they will.
That's fair.
Ten and a half.
But, you know, it's just interesting
because they do not have the defense that the other three teams in the division do.
And I think, at least with Pittsburgh,
if you can win on defense in Pittsburgh and run the football,
you already know the recipe.
We should have talked about that a little bit in Pittsburgh
and the fact that if you're that good on the defensive side of the ball
and Arthur Smith gets to run,
can you imagine what Arthur Smith would have done if Atlanta's defense was great?
They would never throw the ball.
I don't know if they would.
You're the happiest person of all time.
Yeah, Russ can hand the ball off.
So, I don't know.
They're an interesting situation.
No Joe Mixon, so they'll have to figure it out with Zach Moss and Chase Brown.
So, looking at Zach Moss, it is extremely difficult for me to wrap my head around
what is happening here because you have a team that is projected for over 10 wins.
They will be a high-powered offense.
They have had pretty good success here fantasy-wise from Joe Mixon,
who Joe Mixon to me is just he's fine.
He, to me, is not a difference-making running back.
There's just so few of those.
And yet, despite that, he's had a really, really strong fantasy career.
Last year, what was he?
I mean, last year he was one of the top finishers.
Yeah, he was the running back five.
And so now he is gone.
Chase Brown doesn't profile as
someone who will see a huge
uptick in work. Last year
from week 13 on, he was getting nine opportunities
a game. I think he will. Chase Brown?
He'll get more than nine.
He'll get more than nine, but he's...
Zach Moss is brought in to be the main guy,
and Zach Moss is a tremendous pass blocker.
But I looked at the historic –
Was that trependous?
No, he caught it.
Yeah, he caught it.
He caught it.
But that word's awesome.
You like trependous?
Oh, yeah.
Is that like a trapeze-related word?
No, it's just like it's triple.
Yeah.
Is that a player – It's trependous. That's not a – Oh, it's just like it's triple. Yeah. It's tremendous.
Oh, it's tripendous?
Yeah.
So looking three times is good.
Okay.
All the running backs drafted since 2014.
Guys who have finished, they have at least one finish in the top 24.
So since 2014, at least one top 24 finish.
That's 71 players.
Now, guys who have done that,
the first time they ever finished as a top 24 running back
in season five, of those 71 players,
it is three guys.
Three guys.
Two of them are undrafted players
in JD McKissick and Raheem Moster.
And the other one was James White,
which is like,
okay,
that makes sense to me.
These guys were drafted later in the NFL.
It turns out that they,
they kept earning more and more and more.
You're talking about this in the context of Chase Brown's odds of.
I'm talking about Zach Moss.
Gotcha.
Zach Moss,
who is the projected starter,
but it's year five.
He hasn't given us a top 24 finish.
And looking at what –
He's nothing like those other three guys you named either.
Exactly.
Profile-wise.
I'm saying all of the things mixed together in trying to put together
what is the true profile of Zach Moss,
there is so many things that say this should work.
If he gets 60-plus percent or whatever of the work for the Bengals,
it should work absolutely no problem.
And yet, historically, you're talking about this would be an unmanned territory.
Yeah, complete outlier.
We have not seen it happen.
So I am just like, I don't know what to do with Zach Moss.
I think I'm in.
I'm pretty sure I'm in, but it's hard to see.
See, that's what trapendous is.
He's a trap.
He's a trap.
That is a trapendous.
That's interesting, though.
I mean, he'd have to be an outlier to deliver in what seems to be laying
in front of him, which is why I've been more bullish on Chase Brown
and moved him up in recent weeks.
Yeah, the thing about the trap of drafting Zach Moss
is that sometimes you got those leaves laid over that eight-foot hole,
and you're going to be stuck.
This is like you might roll your ankle.
There's like a ditch, and they put leaves over it.
It's a ninth-round pick.
It's like, oh, dang it.
I fell in the trap.
Now I'm walking out. Because it's like, whatever, you just cut him and move pick. It's like, oh, dang it. I fell in the trap. Now I'm walking out.
Because it's like, whatever, you just cut him and move on.
That's fair.
You're not having to spend up on Zach Moss.
Ninth round.
So he is so wild.
I mean, that'd be wild if the starting running back
from a 10.5 projected Bengals team is not in the top eight rounds.
That's just – that would be wild if come August that's the case.
I'd be shocked if that was the case.
And Chase Brown is in the 11th round, so he's even more free.
If you want to take the shot there, I am taking the shot on Zach Moss
because I think transactionally what the team has done,
what they're paying for Zach Moss.
You know, they had the opportunity to use Chase Brown last year.
They didn't, but they had Mixon.
Also, scheme-wise, scheme fit, running from shotgun, Zach Moss fits the Bengals really, really well.
So I'm going to bet on the Zach Moss side.
My guy.
My guy I've always loved.
Always.
You've loved him since the day he was born.
Man, did I love him in college so fast've loved him since the day he was born and i love
him in college so fast yeah you always thought he was speedy um and just a quick jason you
mentioned t higgins is being undervalued i agree i am one of those many out there who feels
personally victimized by what t higgins has done the last couple of years but if if he were somehow to if he played 16 games out of 17 out of 17 he would i'm saying
like i'm not even giving him full i know you have to aim high with just give him 16 games he will
he'll end up being a tremendous value all right um well it's july it's july 9th so we should
probably just rank our division and talk about who wins it I'm taking the
exact same order as last year I think it's Baltimore Cleveland Pittsburgh Cincinnati I am
taking Baltimore to win it but I've got Cincy second Cleveland third and the Pittsburgh Steelers
fourth I think that's how I lean to with Jason. Did we mention the Steelers opening schedule?
I don't think we mentioned it.
It is on the road for an Atlanta revenge game.
Yeah, they're 4-0.
I looked at it.
And then it is a road matchup.
It is a revenge game with the Denver Broncos.
Then it's the Chargers, and then it's the Colts.
And Chargers at home.
Yeah, no, I looked at it.
The Steelers starting the season 4-0. I know. That's just. It's like it charges at home. Yeah. No, I looked at it. The Steelers starting the season at four.
No,
I know.
That's just,
it's not impossible.
Pretty good odds.
It's not impossible.
Um,
meanwhile,
everybody else's opening schedule stinks.
All right.
Uh,
that is going to do it for today's divisional matchup show.
A reminder,
ultimate draft kid.com.
If you want to get into the UDK or the UDK Plus right now.
And plug in your roster, get a draft grade, check out the tiered rankings,
the sleepers, breakouts, busts, and values.
Thursday we're going to cover the AFC South,
so join us for that and the latest news.
I'm sure we'll have a good quick question on there as well.
For Andy sitting in Mike's seat and Mike sitting in Andy's seat and Jason Moore
and Al Borland and Papa Josh, we say
farewell. Enjoy the day.
Goodbye.
Thank you
for listening to another episode of the
Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
Join our fantasy football community
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