Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast - AFC South Breakdown + Booty Scootin' Bhayshul Tuten - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/9

Episode Date: July 9, 2026

Fantasy Football show for July 9, 2026. Which Jaguars WR to target in fantasy football drafts? Will Cam Ward take a big step forward? AFC South preview on today’s podcast! Get a full breakdown of offseason changes and 2026 expectations for the Jaguars, Texans, Colts, and Titans. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. 2026 ULTIMATE DRAFT KIT is available now at UltimateDraftKit.com Get MEGALASHOW tickets at BallersLive.com (00:00) Intro (05:05) Quick Question - TE in the flex (11:00) AFC South breakdown (12:40) Jacksonville Jaguars (25:20) Houston Texans (38:10) Indianapolis Colts (51:30) Tennessee Titans Connect with the show: Subscribe on YouTube Visit us on the Web Support the Show Follow on X Follow on Instagram Join our Discord   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers back with you Thursday, July 9th. Welcome to the show. Jason Moore, Mike Wright, Andy Holloway, back with you, YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers. You want to watch the show as well.

And we are on to our second divisional breakdown episode. I thought it was pretty fun talking through the AFC North on our last show. This is a fun division too. Yeah, it is. There's so many questions that need to be answered today. And so we were talking through the AFC South. Yeah, I mean, Jacksonville is its own thing. It's its own thing, man.

It's own thing. Houston. I mean, it's part of it. It's a different team. Houston's just like, I feel like there's no excitement around Houston. For fantasy football? Yeah, like it feels like a stick in the mud. Yeah, I mean, we'll obviously, we'll get to the Texans later,

but I mean, it's too good of an offense with not a good enough quarterback. It's pretty simple. Too good of a defense. Defense, yeah. And then Cam Ward and the Titans and all the changes there. We'll get into all those teams. I guess I shouldn't leave the Colts out either if I'm just introducing them all.

It feels like I feel like I'm going to hear about that. But Daniel Jones, coming back from injury. Ultimate draftgit.com. That is the website. Go check it out. It's available right now. The draft analyzer is live as well.

And we have a brand new feature launching in probably a week or two. On the mobile app. Yeah. And I'm not going to give anything away, but it rhymes with smock. Yeah. I had a particular user, very friendly,

tried to extort a UDK for life. If I guess what the new feature is. I was like, what, no. If you guess what the, this wasn't even a trail of breadcrumbs. This was the loaf. Yeah, if you guess that it is a fantasy footballer's mock draft tool, you will be very close. But unlike other mock draft tools,

you don't get the opportunity in them to, you know, bring in the ADP of various platforms. All the mock draft tools that exist, the majority of them, are, you know, platform specific. Yeah, they're built for the platforms themselves, and this will be something that you'll be able to do mock drafts, not just by yourself, but with friends, invite friends into them, start from any mixture of average draft position, default rankings, have all of our stats, UDK information in there. is what the feature could be. That might be what the feature is that we're going to release. That's the hint I'm going to give. Speaking of the ultimate draft kit, it's a living, breathing document. We're in there constantly.

You know, right now it's a little bit of a lull in, quarterbacks are going on Alaskan cruises and not a ton happening at this very moment. But we did have a, we had a move happen after the, after the AFC North show. Oh, for your team? No, for our UDK. I was finally able to break through about my man Zay flowers.

Get him out of the busts. He's great. Early. He's great. Be careful, be careful. Don't overplay it. The pendulum swings. It goes back and forth.

Yeah, when we first statted out the UDK and when ADP was not as up to date, it was like people were drafting based on what happened last year, Zay's not going to repeat that right now. Zay is very low. he's in the fifth room. Yeah, and so that, you know, all of our sleepers, breakouts, busts, and values are in there, and those are

those shift. I mean, when you hear that opinions and things are shifting, it's very much based on the market. It's based on, our projections for the players relative to where they're going in fantasy and whether they're a better value or they're a player that's just not going to end up

on your team because you're never going to take them ahead of other names. So our sleepers, breakouts, bust and values, they evolve as well. We have our consensus opinions in there on those guys. But, you know, Zayflowers in the fifth, That's not a bust. Zayflowers in the second. That's a bust.

That's the difference. It's not my belief on the player and the output. It's where the market is telling you this player belongs. Just happen to have everyone aboard. I know. Mike is very happy about that. So that's a good time to move on to the quick question of the day. Pretty soon he'll be in values. We'll see.

Well, he might be. I don't know. But UltimateDraftKit.com for that. Quick question comes from Lee in Vancouver. Bonjour. Yes. Is there ever a case for drafting two elite tight ends, say

Tray McBride and Colston Loveland or Tyler Warren. It goes on to say, could the second tight end outscore similarly drafted wide receivers serve as a weekly flex while also blocking opponents providing injury insurance? I don't think we've ever talked about

injury insurance at tight end because we never really think about it that way. Yeah. It's an interesting question and the answer is no. Yeah. Amon. The answer is definitely not. It We do get on here every year and be like, well, Trammy McBride would have been the wide receiver seven. Yeah, but you have to thread the needle so perfectly.

Yeah, that's the problem. You've got to get right twice. And then on top of that, now you can't, I mean, you're not really playing matchups. You're saying, well, these two tight ends are going to go into my lineup every single week no matter what. And you're like, oh, I just scooped up, you know, this hot running back who's got the opportunities there, got a good matchup. be like, well, but I got this tight end. I drafted in the third round. I got to play him.

And it's the opportunity cost. I mean, when you take a tight end early, you are, you're assuring yourself a really good one, assuming you're getting one of the true elites. But then you are, even when you just take one, you are sacrificing a running back or a wide receiver for depth of one of those elite ones, if you're taking them in the second or third round. And so to do that twice, it's like, okay, yeah, your tight end will be good. Your flex will be good.

Maybe just as good as the wide receiver or running back that you, you know, he might score as much as the running back or wide receiver that you would have taken. But you can't play him. You need multiple running backs, multiple wide receivers. You need depth. It is a, it's a game strategy mistake. And you're not going to be able to trade for value. The only way that it works to have like two tight ends, if you want to take a swing at the end of your draft where the opportunity cost isn't there. Last year, Harold Fanon, if you were like, I believe in Harold Finn.

Yeah, yeah. That's fine. That happened with Darren Waller. Like his, the news of his ascension in training camp when he was with the Raiders, like that was pretty late. If George Kittles at the end of my draft and I drafted McBride because people are afraid of the injury? Sure. Yeah, there's a couple, like George and Tucker Kraft, there's a chance in your league. People are just completely scared off of them.

And they're, and then you're like, you're looking at multiple rounds after ADP where they would have gone. Does drafting me, Bride Bowers, those guys at the top dissuade you from taking a shot on a, whatever, say Stowers, say Sadeek, say Gadsden, somebody late, do you, are you still willing to just take a shot on that? If it's super late, not like, okay, Tucker Kraft has fallen to the eighth, but if it's a super late pick, it doesn't dissuade me. However, I don't know that in this year's particular draft, like Sadiq would be the name. I personally am not a believer. So I will be bypassing for at least this year. But in certain years, I think that that's a good strategy. Here's one thing we have learned from repeated mock drafts on the show and just experience over the years.

What's funny about taking one of those onesie guys, like you can get a good value. Let's say you get a good value on McBride. What's good value on McBride? Let's get fourth round. Okay. Or a good value on Josh Allen or something like that, right? If you pull the trigger on a onesie, even just at value, the one thing we don't talk about very much is the fact that you have now lost your opportunity to jump on value at that position later in the draft if it happens.

Which is why I am much more hesitant to grab a second or third round quarterback I love than I am at the tight end position because there aren't as many of those guys. many late round quarterbacks that I love Jackson Dart where he falls sometimes in drafts, DAC where he falls in drafts. Which you're saying goodbye to if you take the early quarterback. We've experienced this where it's like, okay. You look back at the draft. You're like, man, if I'm past there. Josh Allen and the third.

And now I'm just like, oh man, dart is sitting here in the 11th. What a dummy. I wish I could have taken this and had that running back. But it doesn't happen as often with tight ends just because there's not a handful late that you're like, what a darling. usually they all suck. We don't really have any news to talk about other than the fact that it's been reported that the Buccaneers in Baker Mayfield are still, quote,

not close on an extension. Guys, on this show, I told you, don't be surprised if Baker Mayfield, if they go into the season. You said it on this show? I didn't. I wasn't listening. You thought they might go in dirty and see what happens? I think they might ride dirty, and if Baker has a bad year, then they're going to be like, okay, go ahead, test the market.

Funny thing about Baker. is if he has a good year, I think he may make them pay for that. Yeah. By leaving. Yeah. I mean, or the cost. They did that. Financially, they'll make him pay. The DAC move was not a good gamble by Dallas.

No. So, I mean, that's what it feels like. If I were Tampa Bay, I mean, I think Baker's proven enough to me. I would get the deal done. Yeah. It was always funny about those. It's like, well. But Baker may be asking for a lot more.

Like, we need you to go out there and prove it. You're like, how many years? But do you want me to succeed or do you want me to fail? Because it's like, if you fail, then, okay. Then you were right. You're right. The price has gone down. But if you, but you're, if you're right and I'm bad for your team, then what are we doing here?

That does. That is really weird. But shout out to Jerry Jones. So he runs his business. Okay. Let's get divisional. Well, we just covered the AFC North on the previous episode today is the AFC South breakdown and, man, the division went through some wild times last year.

We started the season with Indianapolis was on fire. There was a story of the NFL. Jonathan Taylor and Fantasy was incredible. Daniel Jones was getting it done on a weekly basis. They were one of the top scoring offenses. They were like seven and one in the league. And they lost their last seven games of the season. They were eight and two.

The number one seed in the league When I was going back, rewatching film And I was hearing like broadcasters talking about It was like, wow, that's right. Late in the season, this team was talked about As definite Super Bowl considered. They were the number one seed in the league And they didn't make the playoffs.

And what's wild too is just like a lot has been made of Jacksonville's finish to the year. They started the year five and four And they won their last eight games to finish 13 and four win the division. But not as much. as I said earlier in the show, has been made of Houston, who started four and five,

and won their last nine games. And honestly, if you tell me which team, not to take anything away from Jacksonville, but in the playoffs, which team did every other team out there not want to play? Houston. It was the Texans. That was the team where it's like,

how do you score? How do you score on that defense? Yeah, and so you look at those two teams, and one just has a... Stroud falls on his face. Yeah, that's how you score. Four picks. Yeah, you look at those two teams, and one just is very attractive for the fantasy football discussion in Jacksonville.

The excitement is built around their offense, and one is built around their defense. And so we'll start with Jacksonville. Last year, they were 13 and 4, as I said. They won more than 10 games for the first time since 2017. I mean, it was an amazing start of the head coach and career for Liam Cohen, who, you know, we started the offseason with Duval and our questions about. that man, but they were answered. Now, they were also, the challenge that I see with Jacksonville is, you know, they're going to

play a first place schedule now. They were six and three and one score games, and the performance of Trevor Lawrence was so different than the rest of his entire career that I think in the back of my head, I'm waiting for the shoe to drop. I mean, Indianapolis fell on their face because they lost their quarterback. right? Tennessee was hapless and they have a brand new offensive

coordinator that we like and a head coach that we respect so part of it was yeah you played a lot better but part of it was look Trevor Lawrence was just on fire Trevor Lawrence's rushing totals in particular nine rushing touchdowns

is pretty wild and so when you look at what he's capable of doing with the weapons that he has he's not going to score nine times again. not on the ground, no way. So then the passing numbers, you need to do what he did over the last, you know, 10 weeks of the season on the course of the whole year. And maybe that happens.

There were six and points per game, 10th and yards per game. And everything basically changed after the buy week for him. I mean, his completion percentage jumped 4%. His yards per attempt jumped almost two yards. Passing touchdowns per game, up to 2 from 1.3. It was just seven top 12 finishes in the last 10 weeks. He was at a 6.6%. touchdown rate after the by week, which that's unsustainable.

We have years and years of regression data when a player is that high up in your touchdown percentage. It comes down and usually hits like a rock. But the fact that he was in the new offense, we saw what Liam Cohen did a couple years ago with Baker, and then consequently the bucks were not so great. the following year. I'm more bought in on Trevor Lawrence and

what the Jacksonville Jaguars are able to accomplish. Again, that level will come down, but Lawrence looks like a great pick right now in fantasy. I think there was a part of this offseason where I was pretty close to putting Trevor Lawrence as like a definite my

guy. I think I've come off of that a little bit. Just those rushing totals are concerning to me. The fact that it is a division, I think, is very challenging. And I'm just a little bit worried about the worst case scenario more than I am, whether he can hit the best case scenario. And so will he repeat as a fantasy difference maker? Mike, it sounds like you think the answer is yes.

Yeah, especially where he's going in the draft. You know, I'm seeing back of the eighth round for a guy that top five is in the range of outcomes to me. I think that's very fair. Yeah, I'm fine taking Trevor Lawrence. We took him in a league we're in together earlier today at, at a good value. I took him in Scotty. That being said, the question as to whether or not he's going to fall on his face

is just did he level up? Was it a true, you know, because he's been inconsistent. I've never, since his rookie year when he was supposed to be the next greatest thing, he has not lived up to that. But he's a horse boy for a reason, and that is because he is a child. Part boy. He is part boy. He's

26. Boy half horse. Right, right. So the horse boy genetic. It makes sense. But I do think he might have genuinely leveled up. He was young enough with a good system in place with Liam Cohen. The second half of the year looked so much better where, you know, the completion percentage that matters quite a bit to me. And he has earlier in his career had, you know, he's always been in the 60s to start the season. It was a little rough. And then they figured it out.

He has weapons. We talk about this all the time. We don't know which Jacksonville Jaguar receiver. Is it Parker Washington because of the slot usage? and all of the success that he had and that Liam Cohen has had with that role? Or is it Brian Thomas Jr? Because, you know, first round NFL draft pick who comes out in his rookie year and looks like a superstar or, you know, the, the, Travis Hunter. There's so many options, but it all goes to Trevor Lawrence. I think he leveled up. I am in on him at value.

I agree with you, Andy. He's not a guy I'm like hyper-targeting and putting, like, planting my flag on. I think we had this conversation once in 2022. when that season ended and he was the quarterback eight. And again, it's about worst case scenario for me, which I've seen reversion from him, whether it's week to week or season to season. That's just in the back of my mind.

I agree with you. The value's probably fine to take a chance on it. But we do have questions up and down the offensive side of the ball in terms of who you're really going to place your bets on in the backfield. It's going to be Beishal Tutin, Chris Rodriguez, and Lequint Allen in some capacity sharing work. this was a team that made a concerted effort to go out and their name was brought up among other veteran

offseason opportunities. So they are as it should. You're losing someone stabilizing like Travis A. Chan Jr., who, I mean, and you brought up his inefficiency numbers, which that's true. He's kind of been inefficient his entire career. It's his thing. Yeah. But he just,

gets the ball a ton. And so you lose him and the next man up is a fourth round running back. The media is going to link you to other running backs. And they really, the splash was Chris Rodriguez, who, what is, how many? It's not much of a splash. Yeah, but he's caught like a handful of passes in his entire career just has never been able to get a towing. That's a ripple in the water. Yeah, if it wasn't the connection between Cohen and Rodriguez at Kentucky,

That's probably what got the deal done. We'd just be like he's a depth piece. It doesn't matter. We brought it up on the last show. Basial Tutin did have problems getting in, you know, Chris Rodriguez can get into the end zone. Yes. Basial Tutin inside the five, we don't know if that work's going to be his and how successful he'll be. That's what the question is.

He had limited success. Who gets it? But he did have success. Tutin was better than H.N. Jr. inside of the five. Right. It just, it comes down to what do you believe who will get the work? and, you know, like, we always want the more talented player on the field. Sometimes the coach just likes a player.

And even if, you know, we're screaming at the television, how inefficient it is, they're going to keep giving that player the work because they like them and they trust them. Let me just highlight. I think it ends up being Tutin. I think he gets just a crap ton of volume. So you can make the arguments that Tutin will be inefficient, but it's like, well, look, H.N. was inefficient last year. George Rodriguez was four and a half a carry last year,

and he did have enough work for that to matter. He had 112 carries. He scored six times in Washington, so it's worth noting that, like... Rodriguez is an interesting play. He's only 25. He's an interesting player. I just think that the upside is with Tutin.

I think that's really... It comes down to that explosiveness and speed, and if he is the first man up, the opportunity to utilize it... If you don't remember Tutin, the prospect as a rookie last year, know, he's 99th percentile explosiveness, 432 speed. So it's exciting for fantasy purposes because if one of those two guys has a real breakout

this year, it will be Tootin. Like Chris Rodriguez could be a value. He could end up being someone that is a good draft pick, but I doubt he's got, you know, like, oh, he's RB1 at the end of the year. Whereas Tutin, I think, has that upside, that allure. I lean more towards Andeside where I am skeptical that he will be the darling that so many people believe. Like there is a Tootin fan club out there

and they are having a root in Tootin time because there's a lot of them now. He was only 3.7 a carry on on his attempts last year. He made plays. He is a playmaker. And then LeQuint Allen, how much will he be a factor? A Justice Hill factor on third down? I don't know. That's just where we're at with this discussion.

And so you're taking a shot on, like, the Toot and draft pick, there's a handful of these every single year. you're drafting a player to be something for your lineup that you're not 100% certain he'll be. Yes. And so there's upsides to that and there's downsides to that. But where he's going right now, what's the ADP on two in the fifth round? I mean, that's tough. That's RB22 off the board.

The usual dead zone. That's a vote for Liam Cohen. But yeah, that's the usual dead zone for running backs, right? Yeah. Usually those mid-round guys, what it is is exactly what he is. Those middle-round picks are the ones that aren't sure things. you're not positive, but there's hope and there's reason to where it's like, okay, I could see the path so he goes up higher than being a late round pick, and that's usually

when it doesn't work. And this is the kind of, like Bayshall Toad, young, exciting, good offense we like. Yes. David Montgomery, all the volume on a playoff team. That's a decision to make for fantasy managers. That's between those, and they're very different archetypes. It's fair. So that's one where I'm going to be on, I'm leaning towards the Montgomery side of that

equation. Sames. And Jason said sameses. Well, I wanted to say same's, but I felt like that was too stupid.

But you said it anyways. I just said sames. That would be too stupid. I don't know if we've talked about something more in the off season than the wide receiver. Yeah,

we don't need to do it all over again. Quick. Who do you want? I like Parker Washington. I like Jacoby Myers as players. This is as players. I like Travis Hunter. I like Britain Strange.

I might like Brian Thomas. as a player. Brian Thomas and Parker, Washington are going very near each other in the drafts. You're not going to really have the opportunity. Basically, when you're on the clock, you're going to be choosing one of those two players, and who are you choosing?

I'm getting closer to Parker by the day. I feel like I am too. I'm getting closer to Parker by the day. And one, I don't know who brought it up, and if I could remember, I would shout you out, but somebody brought up the fact that Parker Washington in this offense is going so significantly behind

Luther Burden and the Chicago offense but the situations for them are very similar the production for Parker Washington was there over a long period of time last year after the by week it was very solid and the slot position for Liam Cohen has been a fantasy football dominator and so I just wonder if that discussion is worthwhile

like Luther Burton has all the excitement and the hype in the world and here's a team that went 13 and 4, and because he doesn't have the draft capital or name recognition, he may just be a steal. Yeah, it's, you don't have any of the recognition and you're going into year four. Yeah, so it's, that's where the difference is of like,

you, if someone was going to turn into a boat, I would expect it to be a wide receiver. They're happening before they're going into year four. It's Luzerburd in year two. Correct. Yeah. between of the Jacksonville guys I think I still lean Brian Thomas

it's not a strong lean it's like a soft yeah and it was it's just of the barely on his side of the field if when I evaluate the situation it's like if one guy is going to turn into the difference maker and not just the the three of them

all kind of you know hot swapping who's going to going to be the star of the day. I think it's Thomas. But again, this isn't like, I'm not, I'm not demanding Brian Thomas get onto my roster. All right, let's take a break and get into

the very different Houston, Texans. All right, Houston, 12 and 5 last year, 7 and 5 and 1 score games. They won their last nine games. Their projected win total. I didn't get to that for Jacksonville. Let me throw that out there really quickly. I think I missed it. It was 7 and a half going into last year. They won 13. It's 9 and a half this

year, which is the same number that we have for Houston. 9 and a half wins. Houston's strength of schedule, according to Warren Sharp, seventh most difficult schedule for 2026. They won a lot of games for an offense that was 19th in yards per game, 13th in points per game. They were a terrible red zone offense. So if you want to know why you just kind of didn't enjoy watching the game very much,

it wasn't that I don't think any of us would say oh Houston they were the worst offense in all of football and the numbers don't bear that out either it was that it was when they got when it was time for it to matter they just looked inept at times and then they went out and got a guy

who can actually run in the red zone and score touchdowns because they did not have that no Woody Marks had to carry a lot of the load last year this was a defense it wasn't the plan it's just yeah they kind of had a

guy that they really liked. Yeah, they did. And Joe Mixing and he just vanished. And it wasn't all Woody Marks's fault and which is why it might not just work for David Montgomery. Their offensive line was dead last and run block win percentage last year. So this is, it's one thing to want to do the running of the football. Well, it's another thing to be capable of doing it within your offense and having a threat in your passing game that keeps the defense honest enough to let David Montgomery go. and have success. But from a game script perspective,

and from how we like to draft running backs, this is a team that has a great defense that will be leading or close in a ton of games, that taking the ball out of a quarterback's hands like C.J. Stroud seems like a prudent decision when you have a lead late in the game and you have a running back that is proven in Detroit

that when there were those situations when you had a big lead, he could salt the clock away. So again, I find myself inching closer and closer, and closer into this being a more impactful year for David Montgomery than I think some people believe. Not me. Not me. Jason's all in.

I've been all in since the acquisition was made. I mean, you saw this team do this a couple years ago, grabbing an older, inefficient, Joe Mixon, who is what he was best at was handling a large workload, being a veteran who is in the right spot at the right time, always falling forward, getting what he can. and that's what David Montgomery is. They went out, they traded for him, they signed him, they extended him, and he's going to get all the workload. This is a team that I think they won their final nine games or something crazy like that

as soon as C.J. Stroud went down to injury and missed three games. They started winning. But this is a team that will be in the lead a lot with that defense. And so I also think David Montgomery is a good pass catcher. I view him as a three-downback. My projection for him is that he will carry a lion's share of this backfield. Yeah, I don't disagree with any of those things. He's 29 years old.

He's changing teams. It has been quite some time. I mean, it's been since 2002. where we've seen him be, you know, like a true featured player. You know, splitting time with Gibbs, even the carry count in 2020. Says less, try it on the tires, Mike. Yeah, you mean, you can argue that except we're going into year nine. And he's 29 years old.

So he is the exact profile that I generally bet against. I can see how it goes right. But when I'm in mock drafts, I just, I don't think I can, I haven't been able to get Montgomery on my team. And Jason and I will target him. Yeah, we will target him. But I will say that it's a different archetype. You know, there's a use case where Tutin is the better option. If you said who was a breakout top five running back?

I don't think David Montgomery is going to be that. He doesn't have the explosiveness to do that. He's going to be a volume guy. If Tutin breaks in. 12 touchdowns for David Montgomery is not unreasonable at all. I don't think that that's possible. I don't know that that's possible. I don't know that that puts you in the top five.

No, he had 13 and 1,000 in 2023, and he was the running back 13. I like that, well, yeah, and half the work, right? Half the opportunities. I mean, he'd still had a ton of work. 200 probably, yeah. I mean, Woody Marks is not going to be a factor. They're already talking about him in special teams. He'll spell David Montgomery here and there.

I just think it's interesting because I like it when other people are out. And so we're not going to agree. Because that's the principle here. The principle is sometimes you pick players that have a good case against them. And that's it. I liked that his yards per carry haven't gone down. They went up last year from the year before. I liked that he's done the double-digit touchdown thing,

that he's been pretty resilient. His carries went down, his efficiency went up. There you go. He is, like I think Montgomery is still a fine player. It's just if they really use him as a three-down running back, how long? How long can he keep that up? Can he make it to,

can he give you 14 quality games? Yeah, I think he can. I think he's built for it. Of all the players that could, I think he's the one that can do it. I mean, I think it's a Nick Chubb-esque type of... Nick Chubb was part of the plan for the Texans.

Not last year's Nick Chow. So as you, when you're like, yeah, well, it worked for Mixing. Didn't work for Nicholas Chubb. Well, Chubb was coming back off of... Yeah, Chub had already been bad. The injury. That's why he's Cleveland. didn't bring them back. Yeah. He, he freaked, Montgomery freaks me out. Um, yeah, and that's why David

Montgomery is going as the RB 26 in the sixth round and Bayshall Tutans is the RB 22. Nico Collins, he's just there still. He's very good. And very good. Wish he was on a team with a bad defense. That would be awesome. Yeah, he's going to be capped by just total opportunities provided by a quarterback that has been, you know, we made a lot of. We made a lot. out of Aaron Rogers being 14 fantasy points of game. Well, C.J. Stroud after his amazing rookie year, 13 fantasy points of game, 14.9 last year.

He's still got a completion percentage up in the mid-60s, but three top-12 finishes in each of the last two years, you don't get prolific weeks from him. You're probably going to get more top-12 finishes from Rogers having a special week than C.J. Stroud,

who just seems kind of like a game manager at this point. And that's probably what the team needs the most. is for him to take less chances. Absolutely. I mean, you look down the stretch. They won nine games in a row. They won with 16 points, 23 points, 20 points, 20 points. 40, thanks Cardinals.

Because anybody can score 40 against the Cardinals. But like they were winning with so few points where, and especially with Montgomery here, when they get in the Reds Zone, they can actually maybe score on the ground. This is, it caps the wide receiver upside. But Nico Collins can win any week. you look back last year

he had so many top 10 weekly performances granted two of them came in the three games with Davis Mills but at least at least you know if something happens with Stroud Mills you know is a capable backup do you care about any other wide

receivers Jaden Higgins Jalen Knoll Tank Dell Xavier Hutchinson I want to care about Jaden Higgins I want to care about Tank Dell I do care about Tank Dell the man I think Mike's odds of caring about bottom and fantasy are much higher than yours. I agree. Jayton Higgins is interesting, but this team just doesn't have the passing volume,

I think, on a weekly basis. What I saw, what I saw from Jaden Higgins was really good. He passed the eyeball test to me, but because this was a, I mean, this is like the quintessential defense and don't make mistake veteran win the ballgame team, not the fantasy, adoration, this was a team that did not let the rookie have too many snaps. I was so disappointed in this season. I really was. I was just super bummed at the utilization.

There were opportunities where it was like we thought he was going to get more work. And he just wasn't on the field. They would rather have the veteran, you know, Christian Kirk out there instead of the young, exciting guy who could make mistakes. And I'm hopeful, if you want to paint the narrative for how it works for Jaden Higgins, is now that he's not a rookie, he's got the experience, and he's coming in as a vet. Maybe they just say you are on the two, on the outside,

you're going to play 85 plus percent of snaps. So they are favored in six of the first seven games. They have an opening matchup against Buffalo, then they're favored against Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Dallas, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and the Giants. That's a pretty juicy schedule when you've got Cincinnati, Dallas, Tennessee, in your first five weeks.

That's a very interesting start. Yeah, like from a Nico. Nico's had seasons where he's been the number one wide receiver like eight weeks, nine weeks into the year. That does maybe, like if you're between two guys that are both really good, please look at that early season schedule a little bit. Sure.

Not that it will repeat exactly. So hypothetically then, let's say Jaden Higgins makes a true second year leap, which I mean he's a second round pick. He's got a he's got size. He's got speed. Can he can he turn things around for Stroud? Like we're very negative on Stroud. Is there any path I don't think so? Where you think it can, where Higgins takes that step and changes the offense. I don't think so. We talked about this with the Bengals. Let's say the Bengals defense got way better. And they

start kind of, you know, slowing teams down and they're not getting scored on a ton. they're still going to keep, like that identity of that team would keep the foot on the throat, air it out. Burrow would just keep airing it out. I believe that the makeup of this team and franchise and coaching staff, if they have a lead, they're going to be running it out. They're not going to be doing that with Chase Brown. That's what they want to do if things go well. I kind of see, I kind of see Mike's point, though, because we saw, I mean, this is still a good team. ever since their head coach arrived.

They've won 10 or more games and they've had a defense that has been respectable. It wasn't as elite, but it was respectable. We didn't give enough credit to what they lost two years ago for Stroud. In Tank? Well, it wasn't just Tank. Literally, it was like Nico got hurt too

and he didn't have anybody else to throw to. In year two of Stroud? In the year two of Stroud. That first year was Stroud, you had Tankdale and Nico Collins and I think they had Robert Woods and I'm not sure if it was Robert Woods that year or not I think it was.

I'm just saying he did have a a number of weapons that season that were yeah, Tinkdale was there. They have Woods that year. So I just think it's interesting to bring up, Mike, because we don't ever talk about Stratt in the positive light but you know, that was a tough season.

He lost everybody and we all made him fall on the sword. Yeah, there were some explanations for year two and then yeah maybe year three was just like hey we don't have we have Dalton Schultz here

who I mean Dalton Schultz continues to be the second highest target target earner for the Texans that seems suboptimal for an offense to thrive you don't want him to be your second target and it's important to bring up because

we're saying Houston's got this elite defense so they're not going to utilize the offense so much we don't say that about Denver who has an elite defense we don't say that about Philadelphia and the potential on offense. We don't say that about some of these other teams, Seattle, they have a great defense.

They still had prolific offensive opportunities. I think in this NFL, you just have to be able to do that. If you've got the personnel to do it. So if Higgins became a true wider receiver too, maybe that could happen. I don't know. We'll leave a light on. You want to talk about the Colts?

Let's go. All right. The Indianapolis Colts last year finished 8 and 9 improbably because of how incredible. They were their number one seed in the AFC and eight and two. So they didn't win again after their by week. Their projected win total before the year was seven and a half and they got to eight. So there you go.

Daniel Jones injury was in week 14 after they had lost two very close games to Kansas City and Houston. There were three and seven and one score games. It certainly didn't help that they had lost their quarterback. I mean, they lost one score game against C.E. Seattle the week after losing Daniel Jones kept that game close, right? With Rivers. Yeah. Yeah.

So, yeah, I think it's a team that we're not sure how to feel about because we don't know if Daniel Jones will be the same guy because he wasn't that good previously. So you got an eight game run of Daniel Jones being elite, making Indianapolis look like geniuses. What I really like is two things. one in the 12 starts that he had. Daniel Jones, when he was a giant, was a prolific mobile quarterback. He was a runner. He would go out there and run for 500, 600 yards. And he was on pace through the first 12 games to only run for 200 yards. He was, where he was succeeding was in the passing game. He was really electric with Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman, and all that. And then you combine that with the fact that he is recovering seemingly very well from this Achilles,

injury. He's, you know, been at practice. He's participated in everything. And so, you know, it's like him being back. I'm not saying this for Daniel Jones, but I am saying it for the Colts, for Jonathan Taylor. Because Jonathan Taylor, when Daniel Jones was removed and they didn't really have anything to threaten deep. And you could just, I mean, if I was playing against the Colts with Philip Rivers, I put everybody at the line and just stop Johnny Taylor. That's what they tried to do and did. I think with Daniel Jones back there, I am a little bit more optimistic that we'll get not necessarily the 30 points per game

that they were averaging with the Colts in the beginning because it was also magical, but a good offense. And I do think the way I look at the Colts coming into this year, good offense. Well, if you believe, I think I'm going to put a situation out there and you tell me if you are going to push back against it. If you think they're going to have a good offense, then you like Alec Pierce because you believe in Daniel Jones.

And Michael Pittman was a target hog that is gone. And Alec Pierce got a big paycheck and was very good. So I think if you think their offense is going to be good, and Daniel Jones is good, I feel like you have to believe that Alec Pierce is going to be a massive producer for the offense. You cannot live and die on Tyler Warren alone in the passing game. So I think Alec Pierce is going to be very good. I don't necessarily think Alec Pierce is going to be very good for fantasy football simply because it depends on the role. If he's the possession receiver, then absolutely Alec Pierce is going to dominate. Probably be one of the best picks

in the entire draft because people aren't drafting him high. He got paid like a number one wide receiver and could dominate. The difference here is I think he's going to stay in the role he was in that he thrived at, which has stretched the field, catch deep bombs.

The team has already come out and said that's not the case. They also come out and said that Josh Downs was going to take over the Michael Pittman role. I mean, they say a lot of things. Plus he'd be more involved. They didn't see he was taking over the Michael Pittman role. They said they would give him more outside routes than he's ever had before. But Alec Pierce has literally,

they've come out and said, like, he understands he's going to be handling way more targets than the offense. I just don't, I don't think you can make a more, I think it's less compelling to say Pierce succeeds than it is to say downs and miscellaneous.

And Tyler Warren. It's those two guys. That's not enough. That's just not enough to have a prolific year at all. The way that I look at this offense, the way that I look at this offense, it reminds me so much of, the old Raiders where it was Darren Waller along with Hunter Henry,

and then they had a speedster outside. Who was that? I don't think you meant Hunter Henry. Or Hunter Renfrenfro. It was Renfro. And so Renfro is like the Josh Downs. Darren Waller is like the Tyler Warren. And I can't remember the name.

They had a... It was before Tucker, right? Yeah, it was a deep threat. It was very Alec Pierce. and they were really good. In that situation, you just made Daniel Jones

Derek Carr's production. And that's what I mean. It's not enough. Because Derek Carr wasn't enough with that offense. That's all my point is without Alec Pierce being prolific, you will get Derek Carr

out of Daniel Jones. And if you want to make that argument, that's fine. But that was the year... Renfro is much better than Josh Downs. Yeah, I'm just saying that was the year Hunter Renfro was very good in fantasy. Darren Waller was very good in fantasy.

Yeah, Renfro was a one. And... That was still Derek Korn. Yeah. But I'm talking about whether Daniel Jones is good for you, good for the team. Are you not talking? You don't think Daniel Jones being back, you're saying he's irrelevant. Daniel Jones is irrelevant?

Yes. I think Daniel Jones is. Because he wasn't last year. I mean, he was like a very. That's where I was saying. I don't necessarily think coming off the Achilles, I don't look at Daniel Jones as someone I'm targeting in fantasy football. But I think he's going to help the offense enough open up things for,

for the running game for Jonathan Taylor. He was on pace for 4,400 yards and 28 touchdowns last year. Daniel Jones was with only six picks. 516 passing attempt pace, 71% completion percentage. Like you said, he was a pocket passer, which to me, like that takes away the concern about the Achilles quite a bit. I struggled with the, just the contract for Alec Pierce of, because GM's teams do.

stupid crap all the time, all the time. If you paid Alec Pierce $84 million in guaranteed money, it's a four-year $114 million contract. If it's in $84 is guaranteed, if you paid him that money to just stretch the field and be what he was last year, you have made an egregious mistake with your resources. I don't know how.

Pierce was great at it, but being great at that, like what Pierce was doing, that's not $114 million. It's also not what he did every week of the season. He had high volume target weeks during the season. He had a 13 target week and a 10 target week and an 8 target week. I'm telling you, if he is a deep threat on this team, I will eat my shorts.

And I haven't. It is an impossibility. I haven't ranked closer to you, Andy. I'm more on the side of they can't be that stupid, right? No, they're not. And by the way, this was. This is the team that brought Jeff. Saturday and he didn't drop

the ball of rivers last year both of which I thought were real stupid oh well now I'm really I'm in a glass case of emotion if he if Alec Pierce receives the target levels that you're talking about as some sort of deep threat to run the defense off so you can throw it to Josh Downs I will be

they will be a terrible football team that will be my contention at least Josh Downs is going to have way more opportunity we don't know if he can succeed on the outside because he's basically never done it. He should have more opportunity. There could be opportunity for other guys to step up. Why in the world, am I forgetting his name?

Their third wide receiver who actually has flashed in the past whose name is escaping me, Kyle, please. I like a good thing of, Ash and Doolin. Oh, it was Doolin. It's a good guess Doolin. No, I was like, there's no way he's talking about Ashton Dooli. I am absolutely talking about Ashton Dooli. We should move on. Flashed in the past.

Flashed in Duelan. No. I don't know what that means. You said he flashed. Oh, you're saying his name is flashed. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, that's great. Come on, keep on it. I got you.

Self-boo? I got you. He says as he hits his own boo. I mean, I guess sometimes you can say something and it doesn't hit. Yeah. You just got to take... Just give us some time. Responsibility.

But Tyler Warren, we're all excited about the draft cost of Tyler Warren. Very. Late fifth round pick. Josh Downs costs you nothing to take a shot on it. And Alec Pierce costs you nothing to take a shot. lot on him. So when you talk about value right now, there's a lot of value there. Yeah, it's, I mean, John the Taylor's worth of discussion. Yes, he is. Because he's vacillated between being the best running back and all the football

and kind of sometimes not that good. And he is, ADP-wise, the running back three. Yeah, I mean, people are betting on. You better be right. That's what that draft stock says. I mean, if you, if you don't remember last year before Daniel Jones went down, Jonathan Taylor wasn't good He was the best He was better than Christian McCaffrey He was on pace for He was carrying Jason's team

No He was bad I thought he was carrying Everyone's team Yeah we were all on his shoulders And we were not like a backpack We were full chicken We were up high

Your team in particular Would like everyone on your team would struggle It didn't matter Because you had Jonathan Taylor I mean he was the true Workhorse That's why like Daniel Jones Was really good last year

But he He wasn't that consistent for fantasy. He wasn't, this was John and the Taylor's team. Jonathan Taylor is the fantasy star here. And obviously people are drafting him as such. Do you buy into that spot, Jay? Do you buy into RB3? I know people are. Do you believe that that's where you'd want to take him? I do. It's a vote for the Colts. Because when the Colts succeed, when the Colts succeed, he succeeds. Yeah. I just. Do you believe that the Colts are better team than Houston or Jacksonville? I think his

him being in the running back three is it's it scared me off that I like I haven't I didn't crush him in the rankings I just I have him now where I don't know if I'm going to take the running back three I think he is

I I think he's more fragile than the current thought process about him is fragile from a fantasy yes not I'm not talking about his body which has been fragile I'm talking about the way it goes wrong So, yeah, I'm just like looking, man, the Colts, have you seen their records in the last five years?

Nine and eight, nine, eight and nine, eight and nine, and a four and twelve season mixed in. Oh, impressive. They've just been right on the edge, and so what's their projected wind total that I just said? Did I bring it up? Why don't you just tell me? Eight and a half. So we got nine and a half, nine and a half. I'm really curious how we're going to sort these.

I think if they lose If they lose 10 games I think you're unhappy with Taylor this year Yeah I think if they lose 10? I said if they lose 10. I said if they go 7 and 10 or something Or worse, which I mean 8 and a half win total

Seven wins is within the I think it is a little bit more nerve-wracking there But we'll see I mean they're a super interesting team We just had Is there a chance of You know with the vacated targets

do we see an uptick in Taylor's receptions? Because he's good at it. We've been frustrated when they haven't thrown him the ball more. We bring that up all the time in the past where you've got a large portion of vacated targets. It often goes to the running back position. The fact that Daniel Jones is coming off in Achilles, maybe a little less mobile, more checkdowns,

it certainly couldn't hurt. Yeah. Taylor's only difficult because he's going as the three. Okay, we'll take a break, and we get to talk about one more team that's got a lot to battle against in this division. Before we get to the Titans, I do what just because I'm looking at this fresh, the schedule for Indianapolis to start is worth bringing up because Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston, three really good defenses. And then at Washington at Pittsburgh. Yeah, I mean. So you're five underdollinger.

Five underdogs to start, but I could easily see this team that I think is good. I think it's going to be a good offense, getting off to a really slow start. And if that happens, and you are drafting Jonathan Taylor at number three, it could be kind of the inverse of last year, where maybe you're really happy or disappointed you draft them, but then trade for him because it gets brighter. Yeah, and they'll have no games against Jacksonville yet, so there'll be two more against Jacksonville, one more against Houston. I, man, doesn't it feel like at any moment that Shane Steichen was going to get fired two years ago?

Yes. And then last year, it was like, you're amazing. And then it seemed like he almost got fired again at the end of the year. Very much. They feel like a team that could go, they could have an amazing season again or be a complete bust. Let's talk about the Titans. Three and 14.

The projected win total last year, five and a half. This year, guys, it's way up. Six and a half. All right. It's not way up. that was untrue. Hey. It is up.

It's going up. Brian Dable, new offensive coordinator, Robert Sala, new head coach. We invested in the draft. Carnal Tate, fourth pick overall. Seems like he is the real deal. They certainly needed one. Calvin Ridley wasn't it.

Iommanner, D.K. Those guys were, you know, those are role players on this offense, not focal points of the offense. They didn't do anything at the running back position. I mean, they invested a fifth round pick on Nicholas Singleton, but okay, we didn't go out and get it. We thought that they were in play for Jeremiah Love. Yeah, I like Nicholas Singleton.

I think he does what is good for fantasy football, the incoming rookie. He doesn't have electric film, but he has a ton of touchdowns in college, a ton of pass catching, but he's a fifth rounder. And Tony Pollard has literally just kept scoring. He's been decent. Tony. He's been. Tony. You're just getting it.

He's like in. his James Connor face for the Titans that Connor did for the Cardinals where you just kind of you're tried and true and reliable. He's going to be the lead guy. The question is a good enough offense to matter. I mean, last year they weren't. They were 30th and points per game, 31st and yards per game, but don't worry, their defense sucked as well. Four straight years with a thousand rushing yards.

They played the toughest schedule in the NFL last year. So if you want to try to find like you know, two and five in one score games if you want to try to find a silver lining in a rookie season that was a struggle you can say Cam Ward played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL and he got better over the back half of the year

if you wanted to turn it that direction. I just tweeted something out. I just tweeted all of his red zone pass attempts. He was the number one in the NFL and completion percentage above expectation in the red zone of all quarterbacks.

Well, it's because they expected him to complete none of the passes but the receivers. Like, holy crap, he did it again. He's 100% over expectation. I guess you can nerf the stat that way if you want to. But look, my optimism around this team is there. I do believe that they have the core that will take them into the future as a winning football team.

But I don't think it's a one-year process. I think Houston and Jacksonville are far, far better football teams. But I could see a world where they're competing for a third spot in this division. and I can see a world where we're actually happy in fantasy for once with Carnell Tate's involvement in this offense. So to me, that's where the real value lies. It's not a bunch of names like Jacksonville. We went through seven, eight, nine names in Jacksonville.

And we didn't even talk about Britain Strange, who really probably should have been brought up as a sleeper tight in. Here, where does this discussion begin and the end? And I think it's just Carnell Tate. I was going to ask, so you're going to leave Wondale out of this? You don't have to? Well, I'm saying they gave him the shmoney. Yeah, but he had as much work as a human can get in previous seasons, and he still was just okay.

I mean a thousand-yard receiver last year? He was the wide receiver 19 in fantasy last year, and it's shocking to remember that. Like you, yeah, no, I'm not. And it was with Brian Dayball, which is nice, but I will say that if they draft Cornell Tate. He had a D. Inconsistency, 35% of the time he mattered. And if they draft Carnal Tate and don't make Carnal Tate the one, that's absurd and wrong. And Wondale, I think, is a good too, but for fantasy, maybe he helps the Titans. I have a hard time thinking that Wondale's going to be very relevant for fantasy.

How many targets did you guys project him for? Because we have our projections. Because he had 140 last year. Looked two years ago, too. I know. 140. 40. He's playing in Tennessee now. What do you have them at? I have him down for 115. Okay. I thought you were going to say 50. He's like, whoa, Michael. So I have him a 112.

Yeah, that's just hard for me to get him to a point where he's in the top 30. Yeah, I mean, it's really- I like the player and I like him for Cam Ward a lot. Like, I like Cam Ward has a potential to have a step forward this year, big time. Yeah, he does thanks to Cardinal Tate. And Wando. Cornell Tate is pretty much the only player that I want. If I leave a draft and I have Cornell Tate, I'm excited. If I leave a draft and I have Tony Pollard, I go, I had to do it.

You know, it's like, I was in a position where I just had to take him. The Tony Pollard pick is so funny. Four years of a thousand yards, it speaks to, like, this is a quality player. we had the you know two years ago oh we're gonna we're gonna time share the running backs and then it was like oh no well it actually it's just Pollard and you're like this year or two years ago I'm sorry and then last year the way we're going to do it again but they did you know the first two the first 12 games Pollard he's averaging around you know 15 touches per game and not producing at all,

but then the final five games, he turned into a workhorse, 20 touches per game, up to 15 fantasy points. So I bring that up as, if dable workhorses, Tony Pollard, it's going to go from that pick that you just,

you regret the moment you do it through, and then week one happens. If all of a sudden Tony Pollard's getting, you know, 18 or more opportunities, you're going to be thrilled. he's on your team. Yeah, to me, Tony Pollard's 29. He's not getting better.

He's getting worse as a player. So he's fantasy vegetables to me. Sounds like David Montgomery. His last two years running back 22, 23. He said 29 like it's a bad thing. I think the big difference here. I'm saying that you don't have upside in the player. So what situation do you care about?

I care about 10, 15 wins, not four. That's all I'm saying. Like Pollard was, he played seven. 17 full weeks last year, 283 opportunities, and finished his running back 23. And that's what you're going to be in the range of. Like, if it all goes well, you got RB 23.

That's my worry about Pollard. Yeah, it's just touchdowns and the offense. I mean, he had 1,000 yards, and he played every game and all that, but he had five touchdowns. And you just can't be very fantasy relevant. No, and we always love the 1,000-yard marker. That's 58 yards a game.

I mean, it's fine, but it's not going to make a big difference. Carnell Tate, Jason, you're the highest. You haven't ranked at Wider's here at 27. I haven't, or 26, I haven't at 27, Mike at 33. We all projected him for seven touchdowns. We just moved him up, guys, live. Did you?

I did. A live adjustment to Carnal Tate? Yep. I gave him a couple more points on the target percentage. Was it the fact that Cam Ward was the number one ranked quarterback completion percentage over expectation in the red zone? Was that what talked to you into it? No, it was more like, he's got to have way more targets than Wondale. Come on, what are we doing here? Oh, okay. Yeah.

If the Titans end up not doing that, again, egregious mistake. And by the way, Tadj Spears, they still talk about him in the committee with the rest of this team. I don't know what we think about him at this point. I think he's fine.

He's one of those, I think he is best utilized in small doses be a high efficiency, low volume NFL player, which makes him irrelevant for fantasy. if one of these backs ends up having a really, really good year

it's probably Pollard, then I think it's probably Singleton after that before Spears. Yeah, I think part of last year's Pollard or the Pollard fatigue in Tennessee is like Spears also didn't play the first four weeks and we're like, oh, Pollard's the dude and then he just did nothing for the first four weeks. It wasn't good touches.

So I guess we have to decide who was going to win the division and I've been talking so I need you to talk so I can think about it for a second. Well, I need to think about it. that because I was... You guys didn't jot down here. I've already got mine. I was busy with my Wondale arguments. I've got mine. I think that it is us. I mean, this is a difficult division because obviously Houston Jackson, Jacksonville, Indy, they're going to

play each other and how you win those games really affects... We were looking at like the stats last year of how we picked them. And as soon as you get the first, the division winner wrong, all the dominoes fall exactly. So get the division winner right. All right. Then I believe the division winner will be. Houston. Do you want to give your other 14? Sure. No, I will give my other 3 teams. I have Houston winning.

I go Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee. Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indy. Oh, putting the indie at the bottom. Get wrecked! I have the same as Jason. I want to be spicy and put the colts above the Jags, but I don't have the stones to do it. Okay. You don't. Saturday, the AFC East will be breaking down that division. and then the AFC West on Tuesday.

The next Thursday we'll get into another mock draft episode. I think we're going to do a 10-man mock. So that'll be fun. Who knows? You better tune in and find out. Yeah, we've got three shows a week right now, five starting in August, the Ultimate Draft Kit available at Ultimate DraftKit.com. And a live show in August.

And a live show at the end of August, August 28th at the Van Buren and Phoenix. If you want to go to Bollerslive.com, you can learn more about that. We would love to see you there. We have a lot of special things planned for the live show, and it's just a great chance to connect. before the season kicks off. And I can put away one more year of rebuilding Interdainty League. Just three more to go.

Closer to your 2028. Picks. All right, that'll do it. Thank you for joining us. A lot of lively debates on today's show. Share your opinions with us in the comments on Twitter at the FF Ballers. We'll catch you next. Well, we'll catch you Saturday.

Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode. of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.